Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Snam Full Year 2022 Consolidated Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Francesca Pezzoli, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Snam full year 2022 consolidated results. Today presentation will be hosted by our CEO, Stefano Venier, and by our CFO, Luca Passa. In the presentation, Stefano will provide an overview of the results and the key highlights and strategic achievement of the period. Luca will walk you through the financial performance, then back to Stefano for closing remarks and finally the usual Q&A session. Now let me hand over to Stefano.
Thank you, Francesca. Good morning also from me. I'm on slide two. In 2020, we operated in an extremely volatile environment, both in terms of energy markets and macro situation. We managed to deliver another set of solid financial results, despite being the year of the weighted average cost of capital review applied since January 1st. We made significant progress across several business KPIs in both gas infrastructure as well as energy transition business, while improving ESG metrics, the different alignment, and ratings. The key strategic milestones achieved along the energy trilemma paved the way for our long-term strategy that we updated last January.
We continue to offer a compelling shareholders remuneration with a dividend per share proposal of EUR 0.2751, of which EUR 0.11 already distributed on in January as interim and EUR 0.1651 per share to be distributed in June. The resulting DPS is up 5% versus previous year, in line with our dividend policy. If we move to slide three, I will start with a brief overview of the key full year 2022 financial results. Adjusted EBITDA closed at EUR 2,237, as the WAC review impact applied from the beginning of the year, as I said, by EUR 130 million.
That was largely offset by higher output-based incentives and regulated revenues, as well as energy transition business that contributed EUR 24 million, up EUR 15 million versus 2021. The adjusted net income stands at EUR 1,163 million, above the guidance we gave last year, mostly thanks to stronger than expected operating results. Total investment, including the Golar Tundra acquisition for EUR 329 million, were up by a remarkable 52% versus the previous year, with EUR 1,600 on gas infrastructure. As a result, the 2022 tariff, regulated asset base reached EUR 21.4 billion. That is up by 2% vis-à-vis 2021.
Finally, the net debt is remarkably down to EUR 11.9 billion, well ahead of our guidelines, mainly due to a temporary positive working capital effect related to system balancing activity in Q4 2022, when the market was long because of mild weather and gas savings initiatives. Let's move on slide four in where we have some operating KPIs across our gas infrastructure and energy transition businesses. 2022 has been a challenging year from an operational standpoint. We had to cope with an unprecedented reversal of flows, injecting more than 4 BCM of gas into storage facilities versus the previous year, while managing a lower predictability on gas flows. This led to a more than 20% increase of the compression station working hours for transport and storage of gas.
LNG facility has been run close to full annual capacity, providing the much needed flexibility of sources to compensate for a decline in Russian supplies. As Italy, we contributed to the EU supply approximately for 4.6 BCM through export, mainly via TAG pipe. Just to have a reference number, 4 BCM is basically 50% of the Austrian demand. Moving on the energy transition business, we reached 40 MW of installed biomethane and biogas capacity with 19 million m³ of production. That is well above the previous year, as new plants entering to operation or within our perimeter. Renovit, our energy efficiency company, reached 46 MW of installed capacity in solar panels and cogeneration.
In the less mature business of small-scale LNG, sustainable mobility and decarbonization projects, more than EUR 35 million of grants has been earmarked to Snam and more than 175 grants to the consortium in which Snam is involved in. In June, the De Nora IPO was successfully completed, doubling the value of Snam stake since acquisition. On emissions, gas transport flows, material changes and their management had implication on our scope one and two emissions. Regulated activities regarding gas infrastructure, scope one and two emissions were down 0.6% versus 2021, mainly driven by a remarkable reduction of 23% year-on-year in methane emissions. We have completed a thorough analysis of the 2022 investment which points to a 39% alignment to EU taxonomy and 62% to SDGs.
Luca will provide more details later in the presentation, and full details can be found in the annexes. Finally, we continue to be rated by several ESG agencies with excellent results. I'm happy to show that we are best performer by Sustainalytics in the gas utility sector. Besides our financial and operational, I'm now on page five. Let me comment on some key strategic achievements. In 2022, along the three dimensions of the energy dilemma that we have assumed as a framework also for the strategic guidelines that we presented in January. They represent relevant milestones on the long-term strategy, as I said. Starting with security of supply. First, we have acquired and authorized in record time two new floating vessels of 5 BCM annual capacity each.
The first one, the Golar Tundra, will arrive in the next few days at Piombino and will start operations as planned in May. Storage levels reached 95% at the end of October 2022, well above the previous year and the targets at the European level. Now we are hovering around 60%, as we will comment later on. In January 2023, we have closed the acquisition from Eni of 49.9% equity interest in the companies operating the two gas pipelines connecting Algeria to Italy, called TTPC and TMPC, that are essential assets in the new environment as long as in the long-term perspective with respect to the H2 Backbone. Moving to sustainability, both the H2 Backbone, as I mentioned, and CCS project has been filed as projects of common interest calls for proposal.
Finally, the asset out methodology in connection with the remuneration mechanism of fully amortized assets has been approved by the regulator, thus testifying our proactive approach toward affordability through new services aligned with the forthcoming Totex regulatory evolution. In 2022, we further progressed on the hydrogen readiness analysis across our infrastructure. A third-party appraisal, that is RINA, has already certified 750 km of our transport network as hydrogen-ready. In November, we successfully tested the variable 10% hydrogen blending in our Istrana compression station. At the same time, we continue to run tests on storage facilities with very reassuring results. All the above was delivered in a challenging and volatile environment, as I said. Non-weather adjusted gas demand was down 10% year-on-year, one of the largest annual declines ever.
The TTF price average was more than 2.5 x versus 2021. With regard to macro, we enter in a higher interest rate cycle with European Central Bank tightening by 250 basis points in 2022 and further 50 basis points added last February, and higher inflation driving the regulated asset base deflator to exceed 4%. Our regulatory framework, as you know, provides a good edge against this higher interest rates backdrop over time, albeit with some time lag. In 2023, the weighted average cost of capital mark-to-market, according to the regulatory formula, was below the 50 basis points trigger, leading to no changes, while we expect an uplift in 2024, as anticipated in our business plan presentation. Let's move now on gas demand and injections.
On slide six, with respect to the Italian full year demand. This was down 10% due to building consumption declined by 15.5%, mainly related to a decrease in the fourth quarter consumption due to milder weather. Weather adjusted is down 10.1%. Demand containment measures, an increase in energy efficiency. The industry demand declined by 13.6%, driven by high gas prices, mainly energy-intensive industry and also a sizable fuel switch. Thermoelectric demand was down by 3.3%, driven by natural gas replacement with other fossil fuels as for industries in the thermoelectric production, and also the government measures to minimize the use of gas in favor of coal consumption.
In particular, over the period, Q4 demand was down 26%, which was mainly driven by material residential decline. This paved the way for different initiatives to maintain gas and storage for the next winter. The vast majority of the full year decline is not structural, as it was driven by mild weather, about 2 BCM, contain and measure some consumption by another 2 BCM, and gas to coal or oil switch for about 3 BCM. Gas injection at 75.4 BCM was almost in line with previous year, as the decline in gas demand was offset by higher storage injections and increase in export by 3.1 BCM versus previous year. If we take a look on Italian on the gas flows on slide seven, in 2022, we had to cope with an unprecedented reversal.
First, volumes from North were down 30% year-on-year, driven by Russian flows decline from Tarvisio that were partially offset by higher volumes from Passo Gries coming from Norway. Second, imports from Southern routes were up by 15%, thanks to higher volumes from Algeria and partly by Azerbaijan. Third, the LNG volumes almost doubled year-on-year. This, as we say, the center of gravity of the entire European energy system shifted down towards the Mediterranean area. We could leverage on the eight entry points that are five pipelines from different gas sources and three LNG terminals that, soon will become five as the new FSRUs come on stream, able to play a strategic role within the entire European energy system.
With important to, let's say, make a focus on gas storage evolution, not only because of, let's say, the development, but also because of the role that it is playing on gas prices development and in the perspective of the next summer and winter. You can find it on slide eight. As you can see, this strategic infrastructure is full for more than 60%, including the strategic gas, at the end of February, at a level that is well above the 40% of the previous year, and with the last five years average at 45%. We have managed to get to this result, thanks to a 95% level reached at the end of last October, as I mentioned.
The reverse flow service provided for the first time ever for about 0.5 BCM up to the end of January, that was reopened in March with more than 350 million m³ sold as of today, as well as the decline in demand, mainly driven by the mild weather. According to our estimates, based on the current stock and the projected withdrawals, we will reach 4.5 BCM-5 BCM, that is around 55% level, at the end of March, which is a good, very good starting point for the next injection season, not only on volume side, but also because of the effects on price side. I will now hand over to Luca to comment on the financial results. Please, Luca.
Thank you, Stefano, and good morning, everyone. I will start with the full year 2022 investments on slide nine, that reached EUR 1.9 billion, up 52% versus 2021, including the cash out for the acquisition of the Golar Tundra floating vessels, with the second vessels, while the second vessel is secure, but the payment will take place only in 2024. Out of the EUR 1.9 billion, 39% is EU taxonomy aligned and includes, as far as transport is concerned, H2 ready replacement, investment to reduce methane leakage and emissions, i.e., electric compressors replacing gas fired compressors, new valves with better fugitive standards and biomethane plant connections. With regard to the energy transition business, 100% of CapEx for biomethane, H2, CCS, energy efficiency excluding cogeneration.
This percentage moves to 62% alignment with SDGs, of which the majority goes toward SDG 7, 9, and 13, respectively, affordable energy, industry innovation and infrastructure, and climate action. The investment related to the FSRU are considered aligned to SDG 7, as promoting affordable energy and security of supply in the current extremely volatile scenario. Let's now move to the full year 2022 EBITDA analysis on slide 10. EBITDA for the period was EUR 2.237 billion, which is substantially in line with last year, -0.6%, despite the effects of the WACC review apply from January 2022, which implied an overall cut of EUR 130 million in regulated revenues.
We managed to almost completely offset this negative impact through EUR 93 million increase in regulated revenues, mainly attributable to the tariff ramp growth for +EUR 58 million, a positive volume effect for EUR 9 million due to increase in volume redelivered and export growth. Higher output-based incentives for +EUR 37 million, mainly due to the default and storage flexibility services. EUR 50 million increase in the EBITDA of energy transition businesses, EUR 11 million in the energy efficiency, mainly residential business deep renovation, and EUR 8 million in biomethane new plants and larger perimeter. As far as others for EUR 25 million, we registered EUR 33 million one-off contribution from the gas excess inventories sale, EUR 4 million rental fee related to the Golar Tundra lease as the LNG carrier pending the final installation, and EUR 12 million capital losses related to the assets replacement.
Finally, we had a EUR 60 million increase in fixed cost, about 5.5%, mainly attributable to higher utilities, vehicle fuel for EUR 12 million, and labor costs for EUR 6 million. Adjusted net income for the period, and I'm now on slide 11, was EUR 1.163 billion , minus 4.5% compared to the full year 2021, mainly due to higher D&A and the increase in net financial expenses. In particular, D&A increased by EUR 53 million due to higher investment effort, as commented before. Net financial expenses increased by EUR 21 million, mainly as a result of the higher gross cost of debt, which went from about 0.8% to about 1.1% in full year 2022 due to the increase in interest rates.
The contribution from associates was higher by EUR 14 million, mainly due to the positive Teréga contribution, EUR 9 million, thanks to higher revenues following an increase in booking to Spain and lower financial charges due to bonds lower over. The sound performance of interconnector, + EUR 42 million, thanks to high export flows supported by gas price spreads and greater LNG availability in the U.K.. Its contribution also reflects the asset revaluation, given the high visibility, thanks to the significant booking until 2026. DESFA positive results, thanks to the higher revenues due to increased LNG import and export to Bulgaria. Negative contribution from the Austrian GCA for EUR 35 million, which despite a performance in line with expectation, was impaired due to the increase in discount rate. Reported net income for the period was EUR 671 million.
The difference versus the adjusted net income is mainly attributable to the impairment of TAG stake for EUR 340 million, then ad hoc contribution adjustment for EUR 179 million, both of which were non-cash items, partially offset by the De Nora stake disposal capital gain for EUR 73 million. The TAG write-down reflects future expectation of volumes following the structural Russian supply decline. We expect a regulatory framework reassessment with respect to both the volume exposure and the entry/exit tariff scheme, given its strategic role in allowing gas flows from south. The ad hoc contribution adjustment was driven by the higher discount rate impacting the assets fair value and its net income contribution, which however, will be fully recovered in the coming years. Turning now to cash flows. I'm now on slide number 12.
Cash flows from operation for the period amounted to EUR 4.109 billion, including EUR 2.337 billion of exceptional cash generation from positive working capital evolution. This was driven by about EUR 300 million due to the tariff-related items, in particular, net overcharges on the back of the tariff review. About EUR 1.9 billion regarding balancing activity, of which around EUR 800 million was related to the long position in the balancing system and about EUR 900 million related to 2021 balancing credits cash in and cash deposits increase, and EUR 200 million for VAT cash in, and about EUR 200 million of other regulated cash deposits. All of the above positive effects are partially offset by about - EUR 400 million of energy efficiency fiscal credits increase driven by the Ecobonus revenues.
With respect to this positive evolution of working capital to be largely reabsorbed in 2023. Net investment for the period amounts to EUR 1.4 billion and are mainly related to CapEx and CapEx payables for EUR 1.3 billion. The cash out for the acquisition of the Golar Tundra in June for EUR 329 million and related to our biomethane platform for about EUR 100 million. The cash in from the partial reimbursement of the OLT shareholders loan for about EUR 200 million and the De Nora IPO cash in for EUR 153 million. Other outflow from the period was related to the payment of the dividend equal to EUR 866 million, while the non-cash item mainly refers to the convertible bond conversion. Moving to slide 13.
Due to the previously commented cash flow evolution, the change in net debt amounted to EUR 2.1 billion. Positive, resulting in EUR 11.9 net debt at the end of 2022, well ahead of our guidance. Average cost of debt moved from the 0.8% in 2021 to 1.1% this year. The fixed to floating ratio moved to 80%. Sustainable finance on committed financing increased from 60% - 70%, making progress towards the target of 80% that we have in 2026. Financing activities in 2022 included EUR 1.5 billion inaugural Sustainability-Linked Bond, EUR 350 million of liability management exercise, EUR 400 million of convertible bond conversion, and EUR 1.2 billion ESG revolving bank facilities.
We also executed EUR 2.2 billion pre-funding for 2023, including EUR 1.9 billion of banking facilities and EUR 300 million of the inaugural EU Taxonomy-Aligned Bond, fully compliant with the European taxonomy for sustainable activities. Such pre-funding is already included in the 1.1% cost of debt reached at the end of 2022. Given the previously commented working capital evolution and the pre-funding already executed, financing needs for 2023 are almost covered, and we expect a net debt evolution in a range of EUR 15 billion-EUR 15.5 billion at the end of 2023, clearly depending on working capital volatility. Finally, in terms of financing cost, based on the current forward curve, we expect the average gross cost of debt to increase to just below 2% for 2023.
On slide 14, as a result of the better expected net debt evolution, our credit metrics displays a significant improvement versus 2021 and are well inside the rating threshold, thus leaving us financial flexibility. Following our business plan presentation, both S&P and Fitch already affirmed their long-term credit rating of BBB+ both, and their stable outlooks. The current maturities profile is well spread over time, with an average EUR 1.4 billion per year up to 2027. With very limited refinancing risk over the period. Now, I will hand over the floor to Stefano for the 2023 outlook and guidance.
Thank you. Thank you so much, Luca. We are approaching the end of the presentation, and we are on slide 15. As we said, 2023 continues to be characterized by high level of volatility from a geopolitical and macro standpoint. Our business model is well resilient with long-term visibility allowing us to comfortably confirm our guidance. We target EUR 2.1 billion of total investment, which is up 10% year-on-year, driven by the CapEx in our gas infrastructure and the acquisition of the second floating vessel. The tariff regulated asset base is set to reach EUR 22.4 billion, which is up 5% year-on-year. A strong acceleration versus recent years, thanks to the deflator effect and rising investments. Moving on to the profit and loss evolution.
A higher contribution from output-based incentives, along with the ramp up in the energy transition businesses, will boost the EBITDA growth. It will be offset by rising financial charges, since the WACC reset will only take place in 2024. This lead us to comfortably confirming, as I said, our net income guidance of around EUR 1.1 billion. Not forgetting that 2022 benefited from some positive non-recurring items for more than EUR 40 million. As Luca mentioned, we expect 2023 net debt to fall within a range of EUR 15 billion-EUR 15.5 billion. Finally, dividend per share is planned to be up by a minimum of 2.5% versus 2022. That is in line with our dividend policy we introduced and reconfirmed last January.
To conclude, in 2022, while successfully managing unprecedented risks around security of supply, we had a solid financial performance and paved the way for a new investment cycle and visible 2023 financial targets. Now we are open to take your questions. Thank you so much.
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Fernando Garcia with RBC. Please go ahead.
Good morning, thank you for taking my questions. I have three. My first question is on the working capital, EUR 2.3 billion positive in 2022. What do you expect for working capital in 2023 within your net debt of EUR 15 billion-EUR 15.5 billion guidance? I guess that what I am looking here is the recording net debt number. My second question is on TAG. Can you tell us there what is the book value following the impairment? If you can provide a little bit of your assumptions on the north to south gas flows for these investments and sensitivity they are, please.
I will like as well to a question there on the if you can expand on your comment of reassessment expectations for this asset, no, that you were making in the call. The third question is what do you expect for gas demand in Italy in 2023, and there, if you can split between electricity, retail, and the industries, that would be great. Thank you.
Okay. I'll take the first question. In terms of working capital for our guidance of EUR 15 -EUR 15.5 Net debt in 2023, we are assuming net working capital, basically, that is absorbing for in the region of EUR 2 billion. All the positive effect that we experienced this year will be almost fully absorbed throughout 2023. That's, you know, basically how we get to the EUR 15-EUR 15.5 evolution over the year. Bear in mind also that, you know, in this guidance, we also include the cash disbursement for the acquisition of the SoutH2 Corridor that actually happened in January this year, which was not previously included in the guidance.
As far as, you know, the two other questions, I don't know whether, you want to comment.
I'll take them.
Okay. Regarding to TAG, basically, you know, the impairment reflects basically what we have in terms of gas expected flows in our business plan. That's why actually impaired the assets of EUR 14 million and EUR 40 million . Now, it also reflects the expectation that, you know, the regulator by 2026, i.e. the last year of the plan, will address both volume in terms of fixing the volumes as well as entry, exit tariff review. That is where we stand as of now. We do not expect, given our assumption in the business plan of flows, which are just above the 10 BCM in terms of flows, to have further sensitivities around, you know, these impairments. On the third, Stefano, if you want to comment.
Yeah, I'll take it. I'll take it. What we do expect for this year, I think we are planning to see in between, let's say, 68 BCM- 70 BCM for the year. This is based, of course, on some assumptions. First one that is that the, let's say, the incentives to reduce the consumptions will be prolonged for the entire year, as well as the possibility or, let's say, the use of coal for power generation, or at least till the end of the year. If I can give you a couple of numbers that can help you to understand the situation, let's say that in Q4 2022, demand was down by 6 BCM, whilst in the first two months of the year, January and February, demand is down by 3 BCM.
At the end of March, we expect a reduction lower than the Q4 2021. As we said, out of the 8 BCM decline we envisaged in 2022, only 2 BCM can be, let's say, linked to real restructuring and structural reduction in demand. All the rest is related to the initiatives to, let's say, reduce consumptions or switch to other fuels. Part of this could come back or stay at the same level. Of course, the last thing to be considered is what is gonna be the weather condition in Q4 2023. That can influence within a range of 2 BCM, That's the reason why in our estimate, we set a range in between 68 BCM and 70 BCM.
That is then expected progressively to recover in 2024 with the, let's say, the curtailment of some of those initiatives I was mentioning before, because as it is clear, the allowance to use, at full capacity the coal production is providing a sizable impact on emissions of the country.
The next question is from Javier Suárez with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation. Three questions from me as well. The first one is on the guidance, if you can share with us also the guidance for 2023 in terms of EBITDA and what you are including into that guidance for EBITDA from output-based incentives and how this assumption compare with the output-based incentives achieved in 2020 and 2022. That would be the first question. The second question is on the equity accounted investment that on an adjusted basis are EUR 308 million. If you can share with us your expectations for 2023 from this investment and what are the moving pieces that you are expecting here.
The third question is on the contribution to the EBITDA from the energy transition business, and whether we start to see a positive contribution. If you can share with us your expectations for 2023 in terms of revenues and then EBITDA contribution from this activity. Many thanks.
I'll take the first, Javier.
In terms of expectations, guidance we have on the EBITDA, it's about EUR 2.4 billion. The contribution from output base is about EUR 100 million. That is up roughly EUR 50 million with respect to the 2022 actuals. The last one was the contribution we expect energy transition is about EUR 70 million. I leave Luca the second.
Okay, thanks Stefano. Regarding the second questions on the contribution of basically associates and evolution in, you know, 2023, Javier, basically here we expect contribution which is slightly lower than what we had in 2022. The two major, obviously moving pieces, is clearly the performance of TAG reflecting the volumes that was answering in the Q&A before, where we expect volumes, you know, below, obviously the historic volumes around TAG, but also the positive contributions from the consolidation of the SoutH2 Corridor, which should bring an additional EUR 50 million, you know, within the period. All in all, slightly lower contribution as the portfolio in 2023, vis-a-vis 2024
Let me not be more specific than that, but clearly there are many different contributors. You can imagine, you know, all the other participation. We have a normalization of Interconnector U.K., some normalization of OLT, as well as, you know, some positive outlook from the DESFA stake, you know, given, you know, the performance in 2022 as well as what we expect for 2023.
Thank you.
The next question is from Jose Ruiz with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, thanks for taking my questions. I only have two. The first one is if you can share with us an outlook for winter 2023, 2024 at European level, not Italian level. Second question, maybe is not very relevant, but I saw in your balance sheet you have assets held for sale, I think it's for EUR 63 million. I was wondering what that is. Thank you very much.
I'll take the first about the, let's say the outlook for next winter. It's difficult to say, of course, as you know. There are couple of pieces that, let's say, can contribute to the thoughts about the perspective. The first one is the storage fulfillment. That is a benefit for all across Europe. As you know, the percentage of fulfillment of the storages in the different main, in the main countries across Europe is well above 50%. At the end of the season, that will hover around, I think, on average about 50%, 55%. That means that the total volumes that need to be injected during summer will be half of the amount of last year.
That will of course, relax the demand in terms of volume, will make the projections during summertime in terms of prices, I expect in line with the ones that we are envisaging right now, that will mean that the spread between summer/winter will stay there creating conditions for fulfilling the storages, even from the economic standpoint. On the other side, all the facilities that were expected to come on stream on being connected for receiving additional volumes on LNG are on track. I mean, the Germans started three vessels. We will start the first vessel mid of May. Part of the contribution will be in line with.
Of course, there will be some unpredictable events like the weather and the temperature, the average temperature during next winter that can influence significantly the demand. I think the second aspect that you, we all know is how will evolve the demand, the Chinese demand, with respect to the winter. In general, what I have to say is that we overcome this winter successfully, not only because of the mild weather, but also because of all the initiatives that were put in place. This is providing an advantage for next summer, preparing for next winter.
I think next winter will have still a degree of uncertainty that will be overcome during next summer when we will complete large part of the initiative to secure and to pave the way for the full [audio distortion] situation.
As far as the second question, the EUR 60 million of assets held for sale, Jose, relates to Iniziative Biometano, which is, you know, one of the companies we have in our biomethane developments, which we are restructuring together with the other shareholders, and we are going to basically reduce our stakes from control to non-controlling in two assets while gaining control on other assets which currently we don't have control.
It's just, I would say, a restructuring of part of our biomethane business, but we should not expect to have, you know, major impacts from a financial standpoint in that restructuring.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Mark Freshney with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, can we just go back to TAG? Is it possible that if the remuneration is adjusted as you would hope, would you be able to write back the impairment, i.e., will there be no risk to the economics if you can get the contract changed? Just secondly, with regards to Gas Connect Austria, it's interesting that I believe your partner, VERBUND, which bought more recently, I think a higher price than you, has impaired their stake in the asset today, and I believe they may fully consolidate it. Can you talk about why you're not impairing Gas Connect Austria as well? Thank you.
Okay, Mark, this is Luca. Regarding TAG, first of all, you're asking whether with the expecting changes from a regulatory perspective, we might have a revaluation of the assets. Clearly, it depends on how this discussion with the regulator will basically end, but clearly, it's a possibility. I mean, if you have an impaired assets and let's say future flows are expected to be better than what we expect in the current valuation for the impairment, clearly we might have a revaluation of these assets. To your question, the answer is yes. When it comes to GCA, actually, we have impaired the GCA stakes for about EUR 35 million into these results.
That is, you know, within, basically the contribution of our associates. That has been, probably less evident, because it's, offset by a revaluation, in this case, of, the Interconnecter U.K., which is another asset, for around, you know, more than EUR 30 million, EUR 35 million, when it comes to Interconnector U.K.. To your question, GCA has been impaired by EUR 35 million within the 2022 results at Snam.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Marcin Wojtal with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Firstly, could we please get an update on your refinancing strategy? I think you mentioned that some of the maturities for 2023 already are prefunded. What about 2024? Are you looking to issue EUR bonds or perhaps you're looking to switch to bank financing? I was also wondering if you're planning to switch more of your debt from floating rates into fixed, because I noticed that that has already increased in the last 12 months. Question number two, if I may, very quickly, just to come back on working capital, just on the numbers.
You had a positive impact, EUR 2.4 billion in 2022, and you mentioned EUR 2 billion will reverse in 2023. Are you going to keep the balance of EUR 400 million, EUR 500 million, or there could be some further reversals in 2024? I appreciate it's very difficult to predict those. Thank you.
Okay, Marcin. Thanks for your two questions. On the first one, as I commented, basically, for 2023, you know, we are almost covered in terms of financing needs. Therefore, we don't have to basically access the market in order to fulfill some of the needs because of, you know, net debt evolution. Starting point and ending point that we are, you know, currently estimating. In terms of, you know, basically how we are targeting 2024, you've seen in the chart of the presentation that the refinancing need for 2024 in terms of bonds is just over a billion, very limited. We have obviously some bank facilities, but let me say that it's really limited.
We might consider to start, you know, some prefunding for 2024 at the end of this year, depending obviously on market conditions. In terms of obviously the markets, again, you know, we are basically heavy user of the euro market. We've been a heavy user of the euro market. We might look at other markets if there are any, let me say, arbitrages, in that respect. We might consider also other markets. Clearly we are in a very comfortable position, given the fact that in March, we are basically fully done for 2023, and we only need to look at 2022 with very limited referencing risk.
On your second question regarding, you know, the fixed to float, you know, we are fixing a little bit more than before. Clearly, we ended at 80% for 2022. But, you know, the evolution of rates basically give us the possibility to fix a little bit more than before. We don't have a clear target, but we have a metric that we need to be at least 30% evolution in terms of fixed to floating for, you know, the forthcoming couple of years. I don't know whether you had other question, Marcin.
The working capital.
Working capital evolution. Sorry. On the working capital evolution, yes, as I said, we are expecting -EUR 1.9 and about EUR 500 million of balancing. Can we retain that, you know, towards the year? It will depend on the evolution, but clearly it's a possibility for us. Lending to something better than what we expect in the business plan in terms of the net debt evolution.
Thank you.
Question is from Stefano Gamberini with Equita. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everybody. I have just two questions. First, regarding the situation of the authorization about the Adriatic Backbone. If I'm not wrong, you should receive some important authorization shortly, as well as, I don't know if there are some novelties about also the Alfonsine storage. The second question is regarding the TAP situation. If I'm not wrong, there was an option for award new capacity, and this was just the request, just 1.5 BCM out of the 10 BCM offered. If you can elaborate a little bit, if this could cause some postponement of the investment or not. The second question, sorry, the third one is regarding if understood correctly, your EBITDA will grow to EUR 2.4 billion, or EUR 140 million upper.
There was a EUR 40 million one-off in 2022, while on the other, the net profit will decline by around EUR 60 million. Could you help us to understand if, at the end of the day, there is also higher financial charges, or where are the difference, considering the such improvement in EBITDA and declining in net profit? Thanks.
Okay, I'll take the first two. The first one is on Adriatic Backbone. As you know, we consultant the initiative in between December and January. We delivered to the authority all the outcomes and the comments on, let's say, the questions raised and the support that was raised for the infrastructure. I can say that within the next couple of weeks, definitely by the end of March, we expect the outcome, final outcome from the ARERA with the final authorization. That also will pave the way for submitting part of this infrastructure for, let's say, European support in case. The second question is about TAP. Yes, we had this preliminary, this first auction a few months ago that ended, as you said.
The most important one will come fall this year, when there will be the new open season up to the major expansion. As you know, that could be, let's say, up to, in terms of capacity, input capacity for Italy, up to 18, 20 BCM, as was mentioned by the CEO of TAP few days ago. This open season will end beginning 2024 with the binding offering at the end. Within the next 12 months, we will see how will be the next step up. This first step up for 1.5 BCM will be on stream beginning 2025. The second is about Alfonsine. Yeah. Alfonsine, we are preparing the project to be submitted.
We are making a check with Terna because we want to let's say, set up this new infrastructure, not with traditional compressing stations, but with electromechanical compressing stations, so to have zero impact for this new facility. I think that in next months, we will submit this new design of the Alfonsine to the ministry for the full authorization process. In the meantime, we are bringing on the process for getting the authorization for running couple , of the storages with let's say, in higher pressure with respect to the past performance. That can contribute the next winter for in between 0.5, 0.7 BCM additional capacity.
When it comes to the final questions, EBITDA, and then I think an evolution for 2023, as Stefano commented, basically we have an EBITDA guidance of EUR 2.4 billion for 2023. That is driven by clearly the solid contribution from the RAB growth, widening of the business perimeter, i.e., the floating vessels, and higher output-based incentives that Stefano pointed to just over a million in terms of output base, as well as up the energy transition business. We expect an EBITDA to basically land in around EUR 70 million of contribution by the end of 2023. Now, why this do not translate to an increase in net income level?
Clearly, as you just said, you know, the financial charges are rising, given, you know, the rising, you know, interest rates and cost of debt. We gave an estimate of net debt evolution to EUR 15-EUR 15.5, and an estimate of cost of debt for 2023 at around 2%, which means that, you know, our financial charges from around EUR 120 million of this year, basically have an increase to around EUR 250 million next year. That's the reason why you don't have, let me say, net income accretion, at least for 2023. You know, starting from 2024, we expect WACC reset, which should allow us to basically offset a part of this of this effect.
Very clear. Many thanks.
Next question is from Davide Candela with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you for taking my question. I just have two. The first one, I was wondering if you can comment on the rumors about ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy potentially exiting from the Adriatic LNG. If this is the case, if Snam will be interested in increasing its stake in the company, or it will be more comfortable to stay with the current 7% in the Adriatic LNG. The second one is a more broad question.
I'm aware about the fact that you have priorities on the organic development and infrastructure, looking at connecting and as an end-to-end process, the backbone from Italy to South Africa, I was wondering if a potential involvement in the EastMed-Poseidon project that could be finalized, at least in the engineering process by the end of this year, if a potential involvement in the future would be, would you consider to get there and to participate in the project? Thanks.
As far as the Adriatic LNG, of course, generally we do not comment press rumors, as you can easily figure out. In case ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy will decide to go on with the sale of their stake, we will carefully follow the process, not only because we are a stake shareholder of the company, but also because, as we mentioned during the capital market day, with the two additional floating vessel, we will become the second largest player in the LNG infrastructure. That infrastructure is, of course, core for the Italian security of supply. We might consider eventually to round our stake. The second question about EastMed-Poseidon.
I think apart from the finalization of the engineering, what counts is what is gonna be the decision from, of Chevron and the other partners that are planning to develop Leviathan and the other gas fields that has been discovered out offshore Cyprus, offshore Israel, and offshore Egypt. Of course, in case they decide to ship out, to send out gas via LNG, of course it's EastMed, it's an alternative in terms of infrastructure. I think what comes first is the decision of those developers on what is the solution they intend to implement for, let's say, shipping out that gas. Then comes, of course, eventually, the evaluation of this EastMed-Poseidon infrastructure. Could we be interested in? Frankly, I don't know. Not right now. I don't know the cost of the infrastructure.
I don't know if the gas is gonna flow through that infrastructure. I don't know what is gonna be the final investment decision of the E&P developers. It's too early to make a comment or to, let's say, figure out the possible involvement of Snam in this prospect.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Bartek Kubicki with Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Hello, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Two please, both related to associates, again. Firstly, on the accounting treatment of the revaluations and devaluations. Some of the associates you include revaluation and devaluation. I'm talking about Interconnector and GCA. You included into recurring income, while the others, TAG and ADNOC was treated as non-recurring. I wonder how did you look at this while deciding what is recurring, what is not recurring, and how shall we look at this in the future as well? Secondly, on Italgas, as you can imagine, there's plenty of discussions on the market regarding your stake on Italgas.
If you could again clarify your view on the Italgas stake and perhaps outline the key points of the shareholders agreement between you and CDP regarding the 13.5% stake in the company. Thank you very much.
Okay, thanks, Bartek. Regarding, let me say the accounting, whether, you know, some adjustments are recurring or not recurring, let me be very specific. TAG is an impairment driven by the change in flows for the Ukrainian war, therefore really something not, you know, part of, let me say, the business or expectation of the business, given a very, I would say, sudden and not expected event. When it comes to ADNOC is not an impairment per se. It is a fair value revaluation of the asset given the change in interest rates. Clearly is part of our current business, even because those cash flows will be recovered in the following years. I mean, the cash flows are basically fixed.
This is just an adjustment on the NPV of the cash flows to the date as of today. While for the revaluation of interconnector and the impairment on GCA, there are no specific items for which we could consider them as non-recurring.
However, given that, you know, clearly, the volatility in the market seeing is posing also for us the questions of what is recurring, what is not recurring, we are working on a policy that we would like to implement, you know, towards, you know, basically this year, so to have full year 2023 with this policy, basically, available, so that you have clarity on what actually goes into recurring and not recurring. Then, for the Italgas stakes, I'll leave the word to Stefano.
Yeah. I try to be clear with regard to Italgas stake. We have a shareholder impact with CDP network for... that covers 50% of our stake. We are extremely happy with the return that this stake is providing. We are not planning to sell the stake.
Very clear. Thank you very much.
Clear enough?
It is. Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. We have a follow-up question from Stefano Gamberini with Equita. Please go ahead.
Yes. if I can have a follow-up regarding the same question on De Nora, considering the prices now are very better than few months ago. What is the environment that could give you the opportunity to reduce your stake, considering that both of them are considering not strategic stakes? Thanks.
First, we are in blackout period. Since next 2023, there will be, let's say, a board that will examine the new business plan. We are extremely happy for the performance, and then we are convinced that we did the right thing in listing the company last year. The price is, so far, I think, more adequately reflecting the value of the company that I think we think can be even higher with respect to the good performance is delivering also in 2022.
Thanks.
Okay. If there are no more questions, I'd like to thank you all of you for taking part to this conference. Thanks for the questions, and have a good day. Bye.
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