Okay. Well, good morning, everybody, and welcome to Tenaris investor presentation. Thank you very much for joining us today. We are very happy to be back in London after quite a long time. Before we start, I would like to remind you that during the event, we will be discussing forward-looking information, and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during the event. Quick introduction on the program for the day.
We will start with a short video on our operations and services around the world, and then we will move on to a presentation by our Chairman and CEO, Paolo Rocca, together with our Chief Operating Officer, Gabriel Podskubka, and the President of our US operation, Luca Zanotti.
After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session, and for that, we will also have Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer, and Guillermo Vogel, Vice Chairman of our Board of Directors. After the Q&A, for those of you who wish to stay, there will be a light lunch that will be served just outside the theater, and we hope you can stay and join us. So that's all for me. We can now start the video.
In a world that doesn't stop, energy is what keeps us moving. From the reservoir to the consumer, pipes are connecting the global energy matrix, and that's why pipe matters. To anyone who knows about pipes, Tenaris means quality and reliability, commitment to safety, setting standards in industrial performance, and reducing the carbon footprint of our operations. But we haven't stopped there. Our services are changing the way that customers view pipe. It all started with Rig Direct, our mill to well service model, partnering with our customers on their projects from beginning to end.
Today, we are linking all pieces of the tubular supply chain digitally. Delivering pipes RunReady at the rig site, developing digital tools to enhance well integrity on and off the rig floor. From the Gulf of Mexico to Guyana, from the Brazilian Pre-salt to the Arctic Circle, no matter how sensitive the environment, we help our customers get the job done safely and efficiently. From the Permian to the Montney to Vaca Muerta, customers are using our pipes and services to set their own performance records.
And for offshore line pipe projects, our One Line service, now with Tenaris Shawcor Coatings, speeds up delivery and reliability. As we look to the future, we are leveraging our industrial heritage for the next generation of energy. With our customers, we are setting new standards for an energy-hungry world.
Good morning to everybody, and a pleasure for me to have the chance to come back to London. Thank you to all of you for coming for our Investor Day. Let's start with, let's say, something that is embedded in the video you have seen, and one of the messages we want to convey. The first one is the relevance of the sector in which we are, the pipes for the energy business.
Everything related to energy requires pipes, from the reservoir to the platform, from the reservoir to the surface, transportation of hydrocarbon and gas, refinery processing, the processing unit, transportation then of the product all around. So pipes are in the core of the energy system.
There are no technology that then, that can, let's say, substitute pipe, and is in a critical part of the energy, of the core, because the risk involved and associated with transportation, evacuation from the field, and extraction are high. So, we want to convey this, to understand where Tenaris stands. In this environment, in which pipe are essential, Tenaris occupy a central place in it. Tenaris is an absolute leader, is different from any other company, and is focused on this.
For us, what is essential, and this is a big driving force for our results also, is the dynamic of the energy sector, in particular of oil and gas. Oil and gas are the center and the variable that is so key for us. Now, we are positive. We... When we look at the program of all the countries, the situation and environment in the different, let's say, countries in their endeavor to follow a path to energy transition, but at the same time, we see the constraint that is there.
And our vision is that basically, we will have oil and gas, growing to some extent and then peaking and but maintaining a high level of production and demand in the future. Here in this slide, you see, basically data that we are extracting from the Exxon last report that are showing the expectation of Exxon in the matrix, in the energy matrix, from now until two thousand and fifty. As you can see, and we share this view, the oil and gas will increase in the period by around 15% between now and two thousand and fifty. The oil will peak at the beginning of the thirties.
But then the need, in absolute term, of oil and gas is expected to increase until 2050, even if the share on the overall mix go down from 56% to 54%. Within this world of oil and gas, gas will take a highly large, slightly larger share of this, and oil will go down. Obviously, all the renewable will increase very fast at the expenses of coal. This is the expectation of the Exxon. The International Energy Agency, in the STEPS projection, has similar view. It's not very different. The reduction in oil and gas is stable in absolute term, but the share in the mix is going down.
This is, in our view, reflecting our view, the increasing population from eight billion to 10 billion in this period. The need of giving access to energy to large, vast area of population. Almost 50% of the world population doesn't have access to a standard minimum energy requirement. 700 million people do not have access to electric energy. So, in this matrix, you will see a reduction in the CO2 emission by around 25%, in an environment in which the demand for energy is increasing by 15%. This is the reference that we are using for our planning environment.
We all need it to address the climate change and to find a path to energy transition, but we think that this will be occurring in a progressive way, and on this, we are planning our, let's say our strategy, our investment. When we look at the expenditure in oil and gas, the investment in new oil and gas production, we have to keep in mind the level of decline. Decline has changed over time. Ten years ago, we were looking at the decline rate in the range of 8%, 7-8%, based on conventional field. Now, the increasing share of the shales has changed this.
Today, decline rate is much higher, between 13% or 15% per year. So you see in the graph and on the bottom, if just the world stop investing, the blue area is showing what may happen. The drop is very sudden and strong. Now, maintaining investment in the existing field, still, between now and 2050, you will see a substantial reduction in it. Our world, the world of the new resources project and investment in the green era, is the era in which our market is concentrated. We need to look at this.
It's true, it is a relatively stable market, what we have in front of us, but we have also to consider that the decline rate may increase even further in the coming year, and the space that will be the need, for instance, of more wells, more drilling, the space for our market could be expanding over time. We think that this is what will happen. The more we go on, decline rate will increase, the need of the CapEx may increase. In the graph on the top, you have the level of CapEx expected until two thousand and thirty, relatively stable.
But when we look ahead, we should assume that the level of CapEx, these are in nominal terms, should be increasing if we want to be able to maintain and to satisfy the increasing demand of energy. No, this is our world. This is the world we have in front, and in this world, Tenaris is an absolute leader. It's different from any other company. There are no competitor that has the same level of global reach, worldwide presence in many country, a investment in the industrial structure, a portfolio product complex in extent is like the one we have, and a component of service aggregated to our supply of pipe.
Also from environmental performance, Tenaris is possibly the lowest carbon emitter in our world. So the company is not comparable to any of our competitors or any other company active in this. This is important because we have to keep in our work, in our investment program, and so, this leadership in this world will be driven by energy, will be driven by pipe, will be driven by level of differentiation and the demand .
But in this world, we want to continuously invest to maintain this absolute difference, the differential position that we have. I will invite Gabriel Podskubka, Chief Operating Officer, to get into this aspect of our differentiation to make it more clear.
Thank you, Paolo. Good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here, and as Paolo suggested, let's go a bit deeper into these five points that he introduced. These are intrinsic capabilities, competitive advantages that Tenaris developed over time and are the key of our successful strategy. So let's start with our industrial system. What makes Tenaris industrial system unique? The first aspect is our global footprint. Okay? We are operating in 15 countries, but these are not isolated operations. These manufacturing facilities integrate into one management system, okay?
This is a key aspect and very distinctive aspect to any of our competitors. We produce and deliver about 10 million pipes every year. All these 10 million pipes are manufactured and delivered to our global customer base under the same quality system, under the same quality standards. It is also worth to mention that all the thousands of order items that we receive every day from our customers are processed, planned, and organized in our manufacturing system centrally.
So that means that we are able to allocate in the different manufacturing mills the different order items that we receive in order to minimize total cost for Tenaris, reducing logistics, certainly, matching the delivery times and contractual commitments. So we have a central planning for the organization of the supply chain. This, multi-mill setup, provides a unique reliability, a unique security of supply, which is very important, especially in a world of geopolitical disruptions and risks, and also supply chain disruptions, as we have seen in the last year.
Another very distinctive aspect of industrial system of Tenaris is its ability to bring innovations, to adopt the newest technologies into the manufacturing system. As Paolo mentioned, CapEx in the range of $600 million every year. The core of that CapEx programs go into our industrial system to keep it up to date, to keep it modernizing. We have many examples of innovations across our multiple plants. I think one that is a flagship is the Bay City mill, the Seamless mill in Texas, okay? This is the most modern, the most fully automated plant in the world.
We have more than 8,000 sensors, about 30 robots, making it a plant that is really distinguished and unique, okay? With this level of automation, we arrive to world-class levels of lead time and efficiency. To give you an idea, in this plant, from the steel bar to the finished product, we finish a pipe in a few days. The standard in some legacy mills in the industry, this is measured in weeks, okay? This is particularly important for our Rig Direct model in the U.S.
Another aspect of labor productivity and efficiency. In this plant, given this level of automation, we typically have a labor component, a manpower component that is 80% lower than any other comparable mills in the States, okay? So we created something very unique. How did we do that? Besides the financial investment, certainly a green project that we invested $1.8 billion at the time, but there was a lot of Tenaris proprietary knowledge into this. We had proprietary knowledge into the design of the layout, lean manufacturing.
We had also our engineers involved in the design and the construction of the critical machines, and also all the work and experience done from our R&D process into process control, quality, fully automated equipment that is installed in this plant, okay? So this has created a great advantage out of the many that we have. We are also, I think we announced in the last conference call, that we are ramping up the new Consteel furnace in Argentina. This is something that we inaugurated last month. It's another example of innovation. This requires a Consteel proprietary technology of a sister company, Tenova.
This is really a game changer in steelmaking, as it allows to reduce energy consumption, allows to reduce consumables, which are a cost in steelmaking, transformation cost. Okay, so these are just an example of the innovations that we have in our industrial system. A last aspect that I want to also bring to your attention is the progress that we have done in digitalization. Over the years, we have invested a lot in digitalizing our industrial system. Today, in some of our plants, we are already able to link each pipe to its manufacturing journey.
That means capturing all the critical process variables, capture the tooling associated with the manufacture of that pipe, and use and take advantage of this data. Today, with the models of big data, we see big potential in our ability to correlate this information and further find optimization and efficiencies in our industrial system. Okay, so this is just as a summary of the key points.
So the industrial system of Tenaris has been and continues to evolve to be a key pillar of our strategy. I will move on to the second point, which is related to the product portfolio. I think some of you that have followed Tenaris for some years, this is not new for you. I think we have, we have a consistent track record of bringing many innovations into our industry. The Dopeless technology is being one of the many innovations that we brought to market, that today has become a standard, for example, in the offshore industry, okay? And all these innovations are, built by our team of in-house R&D.
We have a team of about three hundred and fifty engineers, scientists, people that are in the front end, in the phase with the customers in the regions, also in our R&Ds, contributing and giving inputs, finding new products, new solutions for the new challenges of the future. Today, we are working on 180 product development projects, from concept design to customer qualifications, so we have a broad portfolio. Maybe I just comment on one of them to give you an idea of how this works and the challenges that our engineers are working, which is the so-called 20K projects.
These are projects in the ultra deep water, Gulf of Mexico. Maybe you heard some of them, that you follow the oil field service industry, but this is one of the most challenging projects. We have two super majors trying to extract oil from these ultra deep waters. Imagine that you need to go through water depth of five thousand feet, and from the seabed, you need to go another thirty thousand feet. The pressures under there are of twenty thousand PSI. These are the so-called 20K projects.
I don't know if that tells you much, but the car tires that we have in our cars are thirty PSI, so this is twenty thousand PSI, to give you an idea. So the loads that our tubulars and connections are subject to in these conditions are really extreme, okay? And we need to design and manufacture pipes of tailor-made dimensions with ultra high collapse resistance, even design new connections for this type of extreme applications, okay? And all this has to be tested full scale to assure field performance.
Okay, this is just one of the 180, one of the many. Some of them are niches, some of them are more massive, like the work that we are doing to help our customers, for example, in the shale environment, reach the four-mile laterals that they want to reach with special connections. To give you an idea of the impact of this R&D, you know that OCTG is our main product line in Tenaris. About 75% of our revenues of OCTG are of proprietary products, either grades or connections that have been developed over time through our R&D and product development programs, okay? So this is quite relevant.
These capabilities are not only for OCTG, are extending to our whole portfolio of products. In the line pipe, for example, we are also advancing in many things, and in that, from that point of view, the addition of Shawcor has been instrumental as Shawcor Coating Services. Probably you're aware, it's a company that we acquired this year that is an absolute leader with a solid track record, patents, and products in the field of deepwater coating as well. So this, we are also preparing for the new segments of clean energy.
We are already testing, we are already helping the users define the new standards for the clean energy, the hydrogen, geothermal, and CCS. This is today covering a reduced part of our sales, but we are ready and well positioned for when and if these segments pick up into the future. Okay, so overall, a very comprehensive product portfolio. If we move along, service integration. I believe the video did a good job in very visual descriptive about the Rig Direct process and the integration along the supply chain.
Let me give you just a figure to give you about the reach, the breadth that we have accomplished over the years. Today, 70% of our OCTG sales globally are under the Rig Direct model, okay? We manage a network of 43, 44 service centers all over the world, delivering direct to the rigs. The number of rigs that we served last month, 530 globally. Consider that today we have in the world 1,700 rigs operating according to the Baker Hughes rig count. Okay? We are already serving 530 out of the total, so this is quite significant.
This is a model that over the years has gained traction in many regions. Customers see a lot of value. They see the simplicity in the supply chain, they see the security of supply. Tenaris is taking care of all the tubular supply chain until the well site. Pipes, accessories arrive just in time, ready to run, and with full digital traceability. It has a lot of value. This reduces working capital and makes the operation safer. Okay?
So this is very important, and we also have field specialists that are supporting the installation of the pipes with the proprietary tools on site or monitoring, and this also assures well integrity, which is another value that the customers gives high value to. Okay? And this is a, a performance of our service in the OCTG. In the pipeline business also, there is a service, there is a service potential, but as the business is completely different, we have, it has developed in a different way.
If you look at the, at the pipelines, the majority of operators, there is a clear trend in the industry to shorten the period from appraisal to production, okay? To shorten the lifetime of the project. This has been, in the past, typically five to six years. Now, the majority of the oil operators, oil and gas operators, are targeting two to three years, okay? This is what fast track used to be an exception, it's more today the rule than the exception, and this put immense pressure on of all the suppliers that are trying to comply with these new needs.
Tenaris' response to this need is what we call One Line, which is a service that is entailing a dedicated project team that is coordinating the supply of tubulars, coatings, bends, and accessories, which are an integral part and in the critical path of the supply chain of this project. This is very important. We get involved very early, even in front-end engineering and design. We reserve capacity, and we allow flexibility for changes that are normal in these type of projects along the design until the setup is based. So this is One Line.
It's a different concept of service that we're bringing to the pipelines world, and it's gaining traction. Okay, so these are some of the examples that give us a high degree of integration with our customers. Let's talk about a bit. Paolo introduced the concept of environmental performance. As you can probably have read in our sustainability report, within environmental management, we cover several topics: air quality, water management, climate change, circularity. But let's focus today on decarbonization, which is probably one of the aspects that has more relevance and more attention, okay?
The first point that I want to make, if you see the chart, is that our 1.18 tons of CO2 per ton of steel is the lowest in our field, okay? This is the ratio that we have for 2023. We compile and publish this every year, and it has been the lowest. We have made a commitment that we will reduce our intensity in the carbon footprint by 30% by 2030, based on the baseline of 2018. You see 2018, 143. We have a target of 98, and we are walking the talk. We are already halfway into the targeted reduction by 2030, okay? Many actions at the different level, operative level, investments as well.
You see there $700 million in a continuous investment program. One that I think you have heard before, it was the wind park, the first solar park in Argentina. It's fully operative, is achieving great level of performance, and we have already launched the second wind park that we will inaugurate later next year. By the time that this is completed, 80%-90% of the electricity needs of our Siderca Campana in Argentina will be covered all by this renewable energy. Okay, so we are doing fundamental steps.
Another point that is worth to mention is that in the pipe making, steel making accounts for 70% of the emissions, okay? So Tenaris has already a structural advantage since our five steel shops use electric furnaces, different from blast furnaces, which typically are more widely used in the world of steelmaking and have a higher carbon footprint. Okay? So this is also giving us a strong advantage. It's worth to mention that you see the line is kind of flat in the last three years, and this is or we have made progress in all the different color components.
The top one, the pink one, is the one that has even increased. This is related to the mix of welded. The mix of welded products has increased in the last few years. You probably heard some of the successes that we have in many of the pipelines. These are welded products. In this case, we don't melt our own steel like we do in the seamless, so we procure hot-rolled coils and plates. Typically, the carbon footprint of these players is higher than ours, but out of transparency, we need to incorporate theirs in our Scope 3 emissions and incorporate that.
This is sort of penalizing our progress because of a greater welded product. We are working on that front as well. We have a few suppliers like Nucor in the U.S. or Hadeed in Saudi Arabia. They have a better than average footprint, and this is something that we have also on our radar and in our attention. Okay? So this is an area that we are making progress. We absolutely feel that we're gonna reach the target. And this has not only been important for our environmental performance and our industrial performance, but this also has been highly recognized by our communities and by our employees.
Especially the younger generations give a lot of value on working for companies that care for sustainability. Okay? In terms of customers, I have to be honest to say that we don't have customers today that are explicitly putting a value on our lower carbon footprint, but there is an increasing exchange of information, so at the end, I think with due time, this is gonna give us a concrete value, but it's already today positioning Tenaris as a clear leader also in this dimension. Okay? Let's go to the last point, global reach. I think Paolo alluded to this at the beginning.
Tenaris is present in more than thirty-seven countries, has a unique global footprint, and is virtually present in every oil and gas basin that is relevant in the world. If we look at the OCTG demand in the chart, as you can see, it has been, if we look at the long series, hovering around the 15 million tons per year. And if we look at 2024 and 2025, we see a slight reduction, as you can see there, driven mainly by reduced level of activity in the U.S., the green component from 5.5 to 4.8. This is quite remarkable.
It's known that the drilling activity in the U.S. has decreased in the last year or so, but on the other hand, the oil and gas production has maintained at very high levels. So there has been a very important increase in productivity. At least there is a reflection point or a question mark if this is sustainable in the mid term, and Luca will give us some color later on, on the dynamics on the U.S. market. If we look at the international front, represented in blue, I think this is something that you probably have listened to in the conference calls.
Middle East investing, the offshore also in a good positive cycle, so we expect on the international front the demand to continue to be there at high level compared to the past. In the Latin America, which is another very important market for Tenaris, appears to be stable at 07-08, but in reality, we know that the political and economic uncertainty in Latin America has not been easy, in some countries, has been a factor.
Argentina, Mexico, Colombia, have probably been operating at levels that are below their full potential. So Paolo, as usual, he will share some insights about Latin America shortly and see what expectations to have into the future. I think with this, we can conclude, and let's see Luca on the U.S. and Canada.
Thank you, Gabi. Good morning, everybody. So let's talk about the U.S. now. U.S., obviously, and there's nothing new to you, is central to our strategy and in general, to the energy, say, dynamics, U.S. and Canada are the largest producer of oil and crude, 25%. Even, they are the largest exporter of LNG, and they are gonna be increasing this dominance going through 2030, with an addition of 13 billion cubic feet per day, which will double the export capacity of this region. Now, what is important to Tenaris? Because Tenaris is the leader in this space.
There is no other company, not only in our sector, but even in the service company, that can show a level of penetration that we can see in this space. Now, what is that again is happening in the United States? Consolidation. You see, we have gone through a number of consolidation recently, and this is very beneficial to Tenaris because as Gabriel was anticipating before, we are tied with the largest operators. Just to give you a color, today, if you rank the US operators by number of rigs per operator, you're gonna find out that 10 companies are responsible for 45% of pipe consumption.
And our position with these guys, and I'm gonna go back on the why, but our position with these guys is very, very strong. No other service company can explain this kind of penetration with these guys. Now, these companies are also important because through acquisition, they've been putting together the best assets. This is clearly a good prospect for the long term, because these guys, in the end, having accumulated the largest number of Tier 1 locations, are the ones that are set for being more successful going forward. Now, question is, what is gonna happen to the rest of the market?
So far, this consolidation has brought to a very high efficiency. If you look at 2029, you see the market 5.5 million, 2024, 4.8 million. The market, in terms of consumption, went down 15%. But when you look at the rigs, 2019, 1,000 rigs, today, roughly speaking, 600 rigs. 40% decrease in rigs, but only 15% decrease in market. Now, is this sustainable? This is a big question mark, because Tier 1 locations are very concentrated, and there are many operators in the United States that don't have these drilling locations.
So we expect that over time, that these guys, they will have to start drilling more to maintain their production to a certain level. So we may see this a little bit reverting further on as the shale gets more mature. How did we get to this position? Through services. And again, the video showed the services we've done, but the United States is the place where we somewhat, I wouldn't say piloted, because the rig-ready Rig Direct was already, let's say, developed in other countries, but we brought this concept to a bigger scale.
Today, 90% of what we sell in the United States in terms of OCTG is sold Rig Direct, and 50% is sold under the condition of RunReady. All the well integrity services that Gabriel was explaining before are well advanced with our major customers. Obviously, this provide an element of differentiation. There is nobody else that can replicate this because of the nature of the industry. Traditionally, the industry has been organized in mill, distribution, the CVD crews that goes to the well, all the services that run around the rig, and then the running company.
We are doing everything up until the pipe is delivered into the well. Now, there is no other company that can put everything together because they are all different company, and organizing this complex supply chain is gonna be almost impossible unless you manage it all as a one company. Now, trade. Trade is obviously an opportunity and a threat. If you look at the chart, you clearly see that the level of imports compared to the total size of the market is 40%, while in the rest of the steel products, this number is 20%. So one could say, "Why this big difference?"
Well, there are many reasons, but certainly we are working to reduce this gap, and if we reduce this gap, this is gonna give us and all the domestic industry additional space to grow. Which are the initiatives that we as a domestic industry are entertaining right now? You know what happened with Korea. Sorry, with Thailand. Thailand has been found that they have two producers that were bluntly cheating. They were buying Chinese pipe brought to Thailand. In some cases, they were stenciled. In other cases, they were already coming, already stenciled, made in Thailand, and ship them over to the United States.
Now, in this case, those companies, actually the importer of record of the company, is gonna have to pay the anti-dumping duty and the countervailing duty, which, the two together well above the 100% mark, starting from February 2024, which is the date in which we filed this petition. As a result, you didn't see any Thai import coming in for quite some time already. Other things: Austria. Austria, up until June 2024, was enjoying a very particular situation in which they had access to a TRQ, which was the quota that was given to the U.S.
To Europe through the negotiation on the Global Agreement on Sustainable Steel, but also they had an additional quota of 990,000 tons. Now, from June on, this additional quota is no longer there, and as you see, imports from Austria came down to a level of 5,000-6,000 tons per month, which is more manageable. Noticeable is that this action is on seamless pipe, which is the core of our production. Obviously, we are working on it. There is a space, and we believe that any administration is gonna be keen in working on defending domestic manufacturer.
It is also a threat, because if we are not successful in reducing the level of imports, well, then, we're gonna have to reduce our footprint in the least effective or efficient plants, which we're gonna bring a saving on the cost side because we're gonna be eliminating the marginal assets. So this is, in a nutshell, the United States. Obviously, I'm available for question when we're done, and I believe that I turn it back to Gabriel for the offshore.
Thank you, Luca, for that. Let's go into the offshore. This is the segment where it's very important for Tenaris. We have seen investments in the offshore ramping up in the last years. We see the level of FIDs, final investment decisions, at record levels in the last decade, so we have every indication to see that this is gonna be a positive multi-year cycle for the offshore. As you can see there in both charts, the top one being the offshore exploration well CapEx, so basically, in a way, including the OCTG spend in the offshore. You see the trend of investment going up and sustaining in 2025, 2026, at high levels.
The bottom chart, an indication, is another source, an indication of the pipeline installation activity in the offshore. We are also seeing an increase in these years and sustained at high historical levels, okay? So every indication about the strength of the cycle. Another important learning from these charts is that the complex component is increasing over time. In the top chart, you see the—I don't know if you are able to see, but the deep water is red. The red component is a mix of total CapEx increases.
In the bottom, in the pipeline installation activity, deep water in red, ultra deep water in blue, is also increasing over time, okay? So we're getting deeper, more complexity, this high technical complexity, critical risk management. Remember, on the fast track also, this serves Tenaris and is advantageous for Tenaris. Tenaris is the partner of choice for these complex technical developments, okay? We have many examples, both on the OCTG and the pipeline side.
Just to mention some of the interesting pipelines that we are working on. Last month, for example, we completed shipments for a North Field expansion pipeline, 330-kilometer pipeline in Qatar, devoted to the expansion of the LNG in that country. Very sour, very harsh conditions that are involving sophisticated specifications. Immediately after, we started the production of a new challenge, Raia export line in Brazil, 220 kilometers of an export line transporting gas from the deep waters, ultra deep waters of Brazil into the shore.
Again, sophisticated and demanding specs, concrete coating, and very also sophisticated internal coatings that we are producing and we will produce probably during the next three to four quarters. We are also working on the seamless side in important pipelines. We are manufacturing and delivering, as we speak, a seamless pipeline for Sakarya, deepwater development in the Turkish Black Sea. Very complex pipes, demanding specifications, specialized coatings, bends, accessories.
We're working with the main EPCs in that part of the world, and this is some of the concrete examples that we have that Tenaris has been selected as a partner of choice on these demanding applications. This goes back to the point that Paolo earlier introduced, no? These concrete examples, these pipelines are at the cornerstone of enabling energy development. At the end, these pipelines are supporting global energy needs, LNG needs, and also increased domestic energy in important economies like Brazil and Turkey.
This is also true in the OCTG space. We have long-term agreements in the most demanding offshore applications. We are present in ExxonMobil Guyana's development with our conductors, our doubles casings. We are also delivering our Wedge 600 series to all the majors in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. We are serving from our base in Angola, full strings with Rig Direct services to all the majors operating in that part of West Africa. In Brazil, we also have contracts for connectors in the pre-salt Brazil, and also for corrosion-resistant alloys completion.
So Tenaris is very well positioned to take advantage of this positive offshore cycle. This is a profitable market, advanced products and technologies, and this is a segment that has been growing over time, reaching today 20% of the total revenues of Tenaris, okay? So this give you an idea how we are well positioned for this segment into the future. I would move into Middle East.
I think it's clear the agenda of the major governments of the Middle East to utilize the vast oil and gas resources to modernize, to develop their economies. This is increasing domestic demand in addition to the traditional exporting role of energy that this region had. We see this happening in traditional conventional fields, but we see also the Middle East moving dynamically into new areas, into new challenges. To give you some examples, Saudi Aramco moving into non-associated gas, production of unconventionals in Jafurah.
We see ADNOC in Abu Dhabi as well, starting a program of unconventionals, moving to sour gas fields to fulfill their expectation of self-sufficiency in gas and also to feed their new LNG trains. We also see Qatar, as we mentioned before, on a massive expansion of their drilling campaign. Since they have lifted the moratorium a few years ago, they have continuously kept a high level of drilling activity for gas in the Arabian Gulf, and Tenaris is present in all these areas. Another component that is very important in the Middle East is the local content, okay?
Besides the technical complexity, helping the governments and our customers promote the local development is something that is very high in the agenda for all our customers in the region, and as such, Tenaris has moved consistently in that direction. Last year, we acquired the GPC, our second welded pipe facility in Saudi Arabia. Earlier this year, we inaugurated our state-of-the-art threading finishing facility in Abu Dhabi that complements the service center that we have there to serve ADNOC on a Rig Direct basis.
We are working on other initiatives in other parts of the Gulf. Overall, this technical superiority together with local deployment have allowed us to have long-term agreements with all the majors, all the major NOCs in the Middle East. We see the level of activity high, continuing at current levels. Probably, we don't see a further expansion on drilling activity, but the majority of the areas that we're covering are keeping a high level of drilling activity.
And Tenaris is well positioned to take advantage of the position in Middle East. We expect Middle East to continue to be a resilient and important area for Tenaris into the future. Paolo, we go to Middle East. Nobody better than you to explain this.
Yes. Yeah, comment on the, on, Latin America. Latin America, the overall volume in Latin America, in the range of 800,000 tons, is not big, but our market share in Latin America is very high. It's very high in all of the region, so we are the very relevant. This is a region that is very relevant for us. And in the last few years, not been particularly dynamic. We had the growth in the offshore that Gabriel was mentioning in the Guyana, in the Guyana region with Exxon, extraordinary development. Also, Petrobras, in Mexico, we have seen, offshore in Brazil, also Equinor.
I mean, there has been activity in the offshore, but when you look at the traditional driver, investment like Pemex in Mexico, there has been a slowdown in the level of activity. Starting with Mexico, in Mexico, Pemex today is producing around 1 million. Well, they count 1.8 million barrels a day, 7% less than last year. The level of debt and the financial situation in Pemex is very complex. This has had an impact on the level of activity.
Now, with a new government, a new president, looking ahead, we think there should be a reset in the approach, the financial situation of Pemex, and this will be something that we will see and has an impact probably in 2025, not so much 2026, more likely. The private sector, Woodside, is investing in Trion, and we are supplying the key component of complex offshore process. When you go down to Colombia, following the political decision taken, we see a slowdown in the level of activity, and we do not expect any substantial rebound. Brazil is different.
The combination of Petrobras and private action like Equinor will expand the level of operation especially in the offshore. The onshore is relatively limited compared to the potential of the offshore. But we can expect in Brazil additional drilling and evacuation come in line, coming to the coast for increasing supply of gas, would be very rational to proceed in this direction. Brazil will be moving on this. In my view, the potential, the largest potential for the region comes from Argentina. There is no doubt that the potential of development of Vaca Muerta is huge.
There are three directions in which Vaca Muerta could expand. One is production of oil. Today, Vaca Muerta is producing around five hundred thousand barrels a day. It should arrive around one million by 2030. It's very logical, it is efficient in terms of capital investment, would make a lot of sense. This is one way of developing. The second way is gas for the region. The demand in Brazil, in Chile, and the integration at the regional level would also make sense. The level of price of gas in Brazil today is much higher, three, four times, depending on the season, of the price in Argentina.
In Argentina, there is logic of this integration, especially now that Bolivia is going down, and the reserves in Bolivia are going down, and the policy will not increase exploration in this. The third area of development is a potential LNG. A condition may be, may become favorable for this, but this is a medium, long-term development. You do not expect that this could take place fast, even because it's the complexity of design, financing, offtaker, and so makes this project very relevant project, but for a different time horizon.
Now, in my view, this is the area in which Latin America has not been a strong driving force for Tenaris in the last two years, well, in 2023, we had big pipeline, so was not a bad deal, but in 2024, this has not been a big driving force. I expect this to increase Latin America, mainly in Argentina, but not only in Argentina, in the coming 2025, 2026, so it's an area that could be an engine for driving growth in for Tenaris. Now, I think we get here to the final blocks on the basic number of Tenaris after this, let's say, a review of the strength and the difference of Tenaris.
In my view, Tenaris is different from any other company, also from the point of view of, the, profitability, the potential, that has been shown in the past, and also what we can do in the future. Here you have a panoramic view of, let's say, the last, five years, and the first semester in two thousand and twenty-four. Our business is cyclical. When the, the OPEC Plus, the shales, the war, the geopolitical issue are affecting, price of oil, move our business, follow, as I was saying at the beginning, follow the dynamics of energy, no doubt.
But in the last two years, you see that the impact of our repositioning or our positioning in the United States, the new mill basically established, the acquisition that we made in the last five years, are showing a potential that we see also in the top line. There has been two thousand and twenty-two and two thousand and twenty-three has been record years for Tenaris, no doubt, but it's also showing a structural positioning of the company and the strength of our position in the United States, in Canada, in the offshore, and in the different regions, products, and in the industrial excellence.
In the first half of two thousand and twenty-four, we see a reduction in our top line. That is also a reflection of the lower level of Pipe Logix. Pipe Logix, due to the impact of imports in the United States, went down by 55%. Our top line is reflecting the impact of the Pipe Logix drop. Now, Pipe Logix in last month start to stabilize, in my view, arrive to stabilize at the present level. This is important. What we expect for the next semester between July and December is probably the floor of our performance. Volume will be around 10% below the volume of the first semester.
The top line will be in the range of 15% below of the previous semester. The margin I was guided between 20 and 25. I think we will be in the middle of this range, and we will be able to stay in the middle of this range. I consider that this will be basically a floor for, looking also into two thousand and twenty-five. Two thousand and twenty-five, there are potential upside. There are the one that we commented. But this is, what we can expect beyond this. When you go down, you see the EBITDA and the EBITDA adjusted margin.
Very strong performance in the two record year, the twenty-seven in the first semester, and as I was mentioning, reduction in this next semester, in the second semester of two thousand and twenty-four, but within the, let's say, the approximate limit that I, that I was mentioning. A solid operating income and solid net income.
The return on equity has been strong, and when we look at the financial performance, this is also reflecting the level of differentiation, the continuous effort in developing segment of higher margin. We also have segment like fracking in Argentina, that are not exactly in the center of our pipe business, but are contributing to this overall search for higher margin higher margin segment, and this contribute to this to these results. When we look at what we can expect in the future, there is also we have to consider we have a reduction of our cost, a plan for cost reduction underway.
This is based on many multiple points, concentrating a more efficient facility, a reduction of shifts in some of the areas in which we have inefficiency of lower productivity, a redesign of our supply chain from the procurement point of view. We have actions in this area, and actions in productivity, efficiency, automation. Gabriel was mentioning, but our research on process is working on how we use big data, artificial intelligence, and so to contribute to our process improvement.
Our cost reduction plan is basically a set of actions on many different areas, but is contributing to the support of our level of margin. When we look at the cash flow, you see a company that has a very strong cash flow from operation. The net financial position has been increasing over time. Today, we have a net financial position that is, let's say, very substantial.
Capital expenditure will be in the range between $600 million and $700 million, depending on, let's say, specific project that we maybe carry on in our path towards transformation, modernization, and research and development, but we do not expect major issue. When you look at company with integrated steel producer, you have the relining, the coke oven furnace and the coke oven, and the different area that require substantial investment. In our case, we completed, we basically, the new furnaces in Siderca, a substantial plan of modernization.
During these months, we are doing the startup, and everything is doing pretty well. So after this step, we will maintain capital in this range. Now, there we always look for opportunity for growth. We need to identify area in which we can expand and leverage our position. Our position in worldwide is very strong, but we are continually looking for opportunities for leveraging our position in areas in which we can make investment. If we do not identify areas in which we can have investment, we need to continue to increase our distribution of results to our shareholder.
You see that the dividends has been increasing, and we started the buyback in two thousand and twenty-three and two thousand and twenty-four. This is our approach. We will maintain a conservative approach in the financial position of the company, but we are aware that if we cannot identify a clear target, we'll have to continue in this path that is reflected in this increase. This is a company that is, let's say, even in the, let's say, floor condition that we may have in the next semester, is able to generate cash.
And this is giving to the company the possibility and the option of understanding where we can invest for expanding our operation, or if we do not identify a clear target, to enhance our distribution to the shareholder. This is something that does not depend for the management, but will be considered by the board.
I think we can close here and open for question. The key message that we wanted to transmit are our confidence in the energy sector, the key and the essential role of pipes in this, and the leadership and unique position of Tenaris in this market. This is a unique company, for the different aspect that we contemplated and that we explained. I would stop here and leave open for any question. We will be all here to respond on this. There is a microphone. Yes.
Good afternoon, Arun Jayaram from JP Morgan. I'd love to hear about your build-up of your demand forecast. You talked about maybe five hundred kilotons of growth. I think two hundred of that is between China and Russia. But talk us through what you're... You know, the build-up of that model, what you're thinking about internationally, 'cause there are some concerns around international spending growth next year.
Well, the.
I think he was referring about this slide.
You were looking at this slide. You know, when the conflict started in the invasion of Russia and Ukraine, we thought that maybe the ability of Russia to redirect export of oil could have been limited. The reality is that when you look at the reality, the combination of Russia and China, and they support one each other, has been able to, let's say, preserve the level of activity in Russia, and this is what you see here in the demand for pipes. Russia and China are maintaining this level.
Now, today, the situation in China, as you all know, slow down in the economic activity is creating excess capacity in every segment of the industrial system, from the renewable to the steel, to any other area, and all the world is reacting to this. This slowdown in the dynamic of China is also having an impact in the demand for oil, is part of the, let's say, the relative weakness of price on oil. I think it's difficult to predict in the complex geopolitical environment, which will be, let's say, this, the dynamics of drilling and the demand also of pipes in the China and Russia environment in this.
What we're more focusing on, we have plant in China, but we supply a very small niche of this, a very special niche, not massive production. We concentrate on the, let's say, area of US, Canada, Latin America, and all the rest of the world, and the Gulf, and so on. I don't think we will recover access from, as a company, to Russia and China to a substantial level in the coming years, because the geopolitical situation do not allow us, I think. Remember, we had activity in Russia, but today, we were basically forced out from it.
Hi, thank you. Marc Bianchi from TD Cowen. I'm curious about capital allocation going forward, in terms of you've done a lot of M&A over the past fifteen years. But it seems like in some markets, you might be bumping up against your ability to do more M&A within your traditional business lines. How are you thinking about the opportunity set for M&A outside of traditional business lines? And how does that play into capital return?
I think that we have an extraordinary position in terms of global reach, in terms of development, industrial capability, service. We develop a model that is unique in the field. But up to now, we didn't identify clear target outside our precise scope on which we can leverage, and we will move only if we understand clearly the perspective of it. So for the time being, I think our M&A could be limited to acquisition, like, for instance, Shawcor, the size of which is not substantial. There is contribution to our technological positioning, but not, let's say, game changer for the company.
This was the reason why I also mentioned our vision of capital allocation between potential investment or, let's say, flows of resources to the shareholder. I don't know if this is a... But we didn't identify up to now clear let's say synergistic areas in business that could be obviously related to energy but that has let's say point of contact with our capability.
The one specifically that I was thinking of, I think it was mentioned, Gabriel, on having everything but tubular running. So is that something that could make sense, or is it just from an industrial perspective, wouldn't really add anything?
No, I think we should remain focused. This is-
Yes
M y point. I mean-
We analyze that at some point.
We analyze it, but I think the strength of the company has been focus. We open up to, for instance, fracking, but in a situation like Argentina, in which we have a presence from a service point of view, there is a clear competitive advantage. But we could not do this in different United States or a different market. We are not considering today.
Thank you for taking my questions. Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca. You come a long way since you listed over twenty years ago, and certainly improved the industrial efficiency of your sites. Clearly, the quest for efficiencies is not over, and I was wondering, what are the next key investments that you envisage to further improve your industrial footprint, reduce cost, and basically improve the profitability? The second question is on Argentina. You mentioned there's going to be potentially quite a lot of opportunities there.
I think the rig count has come down a little bit in the last few months, but can you give us a sense of what could be the scale of the opportunity there in terms of potential rig count, in terms of potential volumes that you can achieve in Argentina in the next two to three years, if indeed this grows towards the 1 million, 1.5 million happens?
On the first part, there is a huge potential of productivity increase. Our 50 plants, 70 plants all around the world are acting on, in some cases in parallel, in some cases in series, operating in different process automation, robotics, and so we are continuously investing in this. It's not something you do immediately on total scale, it's progressive, and this is transforming the industrial system. There is a lot of work on this, and there is a lot of work on process improvement. We have, let's call it waste of material, lead time. There is, let's say, larger areas in which process control could really change the way we act.
We also have investments we are considering that may be, maybe transforming some of these plants is a chain of intervention, or a combination of intervention, like the furnace in Argentina, the intervention in the range of $100 million-$150 million. The wind farm is $200 million, right? This is the range that is kind of, let's say, coherent with the $600-$700 million, that are not far from our depreciation, that is $600 million. So we are in this range.
When you look at Argentina, if Argentina reaches 1 million barrels a day in 2030 in oil, you can imagine that from the 30 rigs in Vaca Muerta could increase to 45 or 46, increase by 50-60%. This could be, let's say, the level of activity that may support a platform of production at higher level. But there is also investment in pipelines. You know, there is one Vaca Muerta Sur, and there is study, and there are other pipelines that also needs to enhance evacuation capacity from the five hundred thousand barrel a day today to the one million.
One million is a reference because it's achievable within a period of time, but it's not the final limits of it. The Vaca Muerta reality may support even more than this. The point is always condition from the point of view of the economic, political, and social circumstances in Argentina that need to be, let's say, supportive of large, of large investment. These are, let's say, the size of what we can expect from the... but the resources are big, and so the potential for development is important.
What is the volumes that you produced for Argentina in 2023?
The volume, we don't give specific data for country, no, in this, but let's say, last year, overall revenue in Argentina were very important number in the range of $2 billion, no?
In 2024.
In the last year, in 2023, when we completed one pipeline.
Yeah.
This year will be much lower because we have no substantial pipeline in 2024.
Okay. Thank you.
Hi, it's Mick Pickup from Barclays. Obviously, a lot of what you've been talking today is increasing complexity of product, higher automation, lower costs. Can you just put your medium-term hat on and say you're thinking there's a floor at the moment? Where do you think margins can get to in that medium term?
I think we will. We are having results, let's say, that gradually gets into our profit and loss. I mentioned in the range of $200 million, that we were expecting of saving within one year from the last conference call, no?
Yes.
And this is basically where we are focused now. At the same time, we are identifying other area of investment for the next cycle. We completed one cycle of planning investment that should arrive at these results within basically by mid-2025. Oh, okay.
Yeah. Hi, good afternoon. It's James Ley from Rystad Energy. I'm just wondering, when you look at the M&A side, are you guys considering or exploring moving into kind of like for CRA OCTG, so kind of nickel alloy, super duplex manufacturing, or potentially like on the line pipe, the alloy line pipes, the clad mechanical line pipes? We see very strong demand outlooks there with places like Qatar and Brazil. Is that an area that's attracting your attention as well, or?
Is important, but I would ask Gabriel-
Yeah
T o summarize our position in all the-
Yeah
The CRA and the high chrome.
Yeah, indeed, we see what you see, a high demand for CRAs and for 13 Chromes and Super 13 Chrome as well, different grades of stainless. On the CRA front, we have a strategic alliance with Alleima, used to be Sandvik Tubulars, which they have been increasing capacity as well. So we expect that alliance to continue expanding capacity according to the needs of the market, and as you're mentioning, we are stepping up our capabilities. They are stepping up their capabilities. We're well positioned in ADNOC, in Qatar, in Brazil, and some of the other areas that are requiring the CRA.
This is also an expectation of demand on CCS. If the demand of CCS picks up, there's a high degree that the completions on CCS would be on the CRA side. Okay? So we are very much in tune and working, not with an M&A, but in a strategic alliance on the CRA. When you go back to the 13 Chrome and Super 13 Chrome, there is an area where we have invested heavily in the last three years to step up our steel making and our manufacturing of pipes of these special grades that are mainly used in offshore and sour service conditions for completion.
So this is a capability that we have developed. At the same time, we have a strategic alliance with JFE in Japan that complements our own capabilities. So between the support of our ex-partner in NKKT, and the facility that we had as a JV in Japan, plus our development of our own internal capabilities, we are pretty comfortable that we'll be able to continue to increase shipments as we are doing, and our position in this segment. So this is a, it's a niche within the global of Tenaris, but this is a growing importance, both the CRA and 13 C hrome, and this is something that we are addressing.
Yes. Thank you very much for taking my question. During the presentation, you touched on the situation of the U.S. imports. Could you please update us on how you see the situation about your, say, exports from Argentina and Mexico into the U.S.? Because it seems that the U.S. government has reopened some of the proceedings, the appeal is ongoing, and so on.
Thank you. I think Luca, you can answer.
Yes. I mean, briefly speaking, I mean, you saw what is happening on the import side. I believe that there is still work for us to do on imports on the welded side. So far, I mean, the target was basically seamless and the welded from China, basically. Now, there are... If you look at the size of the market, we do believe that there is still work to be done on the welded side, especially on the side of Korea, and this is as far as the imports are concerned.
Now, as far as our export from Argentina and Mexico, we obviously first of all, there's gonna be a revision whose preliminary results are gonna be available around November, December, which will address the topic of the anti-dumping margin. And obviously, Argentina, because this is the country, it's not.
Argentina and Mexico are also appealing to the WTO and to the Department of Commerce in the United States for the review of the anti-dumping case, which in our opinion has points that need to be addressed by these two courts. It is too early to say what is gonna happen, but this is the status of the two anti-dumping processes that are undergoing.
Thank you.
Yeah, in November, we will have the first review of the anti-dumping procedure. This will be, let's say, important point.
It will be very important.
Rodrigo Almeida from Santander here. Thank you for the presentation, and I wanted to go back to the value aggregation to clients and talk a little bit about the Rig Direct that you implemented in the Middle East. And if you could give us some color on what are your intentions, how fast you can implement something similar to what you have already implemented into the U.S., what sort of volumes and sort of capital that you're gonna need to implement that project.
And also, if you could talk a little bit about the similar project that it seems like you're also trying to implement in South America, I think it would be nice to get some color as well, especially as we see growing, say, activity in the region as well over the next few years on the offshore side. Thank you.
Yeah, well, we are doing Rig Direct everywhere in the world. This is not only US. Let me tell you, the Rig Direct has been an essential component that has also led some of the major oil company, for instance, like Exxon, to choose Tenaris as the substantial supplier worldwide. And one of the reason is that our model is allow them to reduce working capital, has a weight on our working capital, obviously, but proportionally lower. So we are managing, let's say, their saving with a capital investment that is much lower than the potential investment of all the oil company.
Because of this ability to manage in an integrated way, all the facility, all the logistic, all the supply chain, in a system that is following pipe by pipe. Every pipe has a name and a surname that goes through the system until we're very well. This has been, let's say, a very innovative approach and has driven some of the... especially the major oil company, the independent, so to choose this, not only in America, but also in Middle East. Maybe you can add, Gabriel, because you follow the reaction in areas that are-
Yeah
O utside the U.S., no?
Yeah, indeed. The model, as we were explaining, and as you're saying, is very much entrenched in the majority of where we are. Very clear in South America, probably the majority, virtually all our sales of OCTG in Latin America are under the Rig Direct model, has grown a lot in the U.S., is growing and gaining traction in Canada as well. We are also increasing our footprint in Canada. When you go to Europe, we have the North Sea. This is a model that also has been always under Rig Direct. Continental Europe, Romania is also an area that has been consistently utilizing that.
And the Middle East is probably the most challenging area, where we have made inroads in, clearly in ADNOC, where we pioneered this, this new system, where today we're serving eight rigs in Abu Dhabi through ADNOC and this Rig Direct. We see the other NOCs looking at this model. Sometimes the difficulty is on not other company offering a similar type of service and this capability. For the NOCs in the Middle East, it's important in the quest for competition and not putting all the eggs in one basket to have alternatives scenarios .
And in many parts of the world Tenaris is the only one that can bring this level of proposition with the capability and with the financial strength on putting this model. We are doing some in-road works, and we have won some contracts in Egypt lately. So the Middle East is probably the most challenging area in which this Rig Direct will take some time until it's ingrained.
Africa, I mentioned Africa as well, Angola, Ghana, also, the system is working there as well. So we believe it's a, it's a model that adds value. Certainly, it has a cost, but adds value, and we capture part of the value, not only adding on the revenue stream services that adds with a margin, but this level of integration in the supply chain allows for us to be closer to our customers, to understand better the operations, to spot for other opportunities, and to develop new solutions. Typically, this integration of the supply chain, in our experience, has worked in a way that the level of loyalty gets increased.
So many of these programs end up being long-term agreements and strategic partnerships. So there is an intrinsic value based on the cost and the capability, an additional margin, services that for us has been very, very important.
You know, this approach goes together with long-term contract, and it's been, let's say, came out from basically a, an approach to the shale. Because the shale are a more industrial approach to drilling, and, let's say, are a very favorable environment for developing a highly service-oriented strategy. And then, we've been able to expand this in different area, but always with the underlying long-term approach, as an underlying long-term contract.
This is giving a more predictable. I mean, our model is built on forecast accuracy. These are the things that are important to be efficient in the management of the working capital also, no?
Yes, thanks for the presentation. Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux. I have two question on the U.S., if we may. We largely talked about the imports, but not really on the local supply. So have you seen any big change over the past twelve to eighteen months on the local supply, in terms of key competitors? And what could be the potential implication of, U.S.
Steel being, bought by, by someone else? And the second question, we will soon have the, U.S. election, with a lot of talks around the Inflation Reduction Act and the potential implication, et cetera. Is there anything for you from that, Inflation Reduction Act as an opportunity for 2025, 2026, please?
On the first, I don't see major change in the... from the supplier, the local supplier. Even the potential proposal by Nippon Steel to acquire part of U.S. Steel shouldn't change, let's say, the competitive environment from the point of view of the pipes. I don't think there will be, let's say, major changes there. And on the IRA, and this, Luca, maybe you can add.
No, uh-
If you perceive.
On the domestic, what you see, you should look at the investments that these guys are putting in place. And if you see, yes, they've been investing to update a little bit, but there's nothing major coming on stream. So it would be difficult for us to think there are plants that have been down for years already, like Lorain. Yes, it's been down for five years. No investment. So for this capacity to come back, it's gonna take time, if it will ever come back. So there is capacity in the United States, but nothing has changed, as Paolo was saying, recently. The only one that really have invested are very few players.
Among those players, Tenaris obviously had the lion's share. The IRA, well, for us, would be a source of, let's say, capital if we, for example, invested in, I don't know, carbon capture for our plant, which obviously we are looking at it, but we see this coming very difficult. I mean, it's very difficult. The economics still for our business, at least in the States, even with the support of the IRA or for the grants of the DOE, because also there are grants from the Department of Energy. Economics is still not very clear, but it's creating demand.
For example, all the carbon capture is going ahead, and obviously, this will require pipe, very sophisticated pipes. So this is the part of the IRA or even the bipartisan infrastructure bill that will provide additional demand over time, though. Because as I was saying, the economics of the CCS still even with the IRA, will take time to develop, but this is the part where we're gonna see an impact. Not impact directly on us, impact on the creation of demand.
Hi, Dave Anderson, Barclays. Gabriel, you talked about the Middle Eastern opportunities. I was wondering if you could talk specifically about Saudi. A couple years ago, I think we, when we had talked, you had talked about they had about two years of inventory, so volumes.
Yeah
I nto Saudi were sort of under, kind of underutilized, essentially. Can you give us an update as to kind of where those inventory levels are today? And then secondarily, you touched on Jafurah, a completely different field, unconventional. We're talking US-style horizontal wells.
Yeah.
I can't imagine the inventory they have there in is the same type of pipe used. We're talking four or five hundred wells a year. Does that change the next several years in terms of your outlook on the Middle East? Thank you.
Thank you very much for the question. Very interesting. Saudi indeed has been increasing the drilling activity, has been dropping some of the offshore oil rigs at expense on increasing the unconventional Jafurah rigs. This, overall, we see a very stable, high level of consumption of pipes. In terms of the supply chain, Aramco has been changing in the last few years. They were notorious for this stop, restock, and then stop for a few years.
So the cycles five, 10 years ago, those of we have been following Aramco, have been notorious of buying, and even we have periods, I remember one of one and a half, two years of no orders. This happened in the cycles of Aramco. But this has changed since the company became public, since the company has done a lot of efforts to strengthen the local supply chain and the local players on the seamless, on the finishing, on the ERW welded, SAW welded.
So there has been an important work of Saudi Aramco in the last few years to increase the network of local suppliers that are really working as an ecosystem. And this has created that the level of inventories in general in Saudi are much more healthy than the old cycles that we used to have. Also, being a public company, Saudi Aramco as well, there is more attention to cash flow as they had in the past.
So I think this, we will still see cycles, either in activity or stocking or destocking, but they would be much narrower, maybe of a few months, compared to what we see in the past. We used to see two years of inventory in that large stocking, service center that, Aramco has in Dhahran. It was something normal. Today, the inventory levels are in the range of three to six months, and also they are requesting the local network of suppliers to carry also three to four months of inventory.
So it's a more balanced, more local, and much better in terms of working capital, assuring a security supply that many years ago, when the majority of the pipe were coming from outside, was not possible. But this has changed. This has changed. Jafurah, extraordinary opportunity. There is a big demand and a big drive in Saudi to substitute oil, especially for generation of electricity locally. The demand of electricity in Saudi is increasing, and they have a target: 50% will be addressed with renewables, 50% will be addressed with gas, okay? Non-associated gas.
So there is a clear drive, and we believe that this progression of rigs increase in Saudi on which is clearly, like any shale and conventional operation, is very pipe intensive, will continue. They are also going through the learning curves, like we've seen in the U.S., in Argentina, or in Canada, in the Montney, of extending the laterals.
We're also bringing part of our Wedge technology and experience that we had from other places in the world, to help Aramco bring these longer laterals, which give them more exposure to the field, and then better productivity. We are working closely with him, and we see this as an opportunity and a strong driver of demand for gas in the kingdom.
Yeah, let me add, just, we have better visibility today because we have more than one thousand people working in the different plant in Saudi. So I think also this has created a better introduction of Tenaris into the reality of the oil and gas system in Saudi. We are more part of this than maybe six years ago, when we were mainly affected by this sudden shift. This is important, and I think it's a potential for us.
Very much.
Yeah, up there.
Good morning. Luigi De Bellis from Equita. I have three question. The first one is: Which visibility do you have for 2025 for large projects or big pipelines like the Argentina one in 2023? And how much of 2024 volumes are related to pipeline or large projects? The last question is: Looking to first half of 2025, we can imagine to come back to one million volumes per quarters after the minus 10% of the second half of 2024 compared to the first half, also considering the stabilization on the end of the stocking in Middle East. Thank you.
Well, on the last question, as I was mentioning in looking at the number, we will not be far from getting back to the million per quarter. It will depend from, let's say, some specific or some project, but we will not be very far. Also, in an environment in which we assume that China, let's say, reduces level of growth, but not much more than what is happening today. I think that the change in the interest rate worldwide, in the U.S., and also in China, may stabilize level of activity or at this level. This will maintain a certain demand, level of demand for oil, not far from the level of today. Price of oil will be stable.
In this environment, I think we will be not far from the million back in 2025. Now, for the pipeline, maybe you can comment on the visibility we have on the very large project that are very interesting for us, and we are very focused on it.
For sure. On the pipeline business, the backlog that we have today give us visibility until the first quarter of 2025, okay? With the offshore pipelines, the one that we commented in Brazil, and some others that we have already in the backlog, we have a very good concrete backlog until the first quarter of 2025. Then, we are in several bids, several competitive mechanisms where we are well placed, and we believe that later on in the second quarter in 2025, we are counting on the pipeline business in 2025 to be important and relevant.
Many projects in Argentina are being discussed, in Middle East, and in other parts of the world, so we are quite confident on the volume of pipelines in 2025. Considering in addition that we have also Shawcor, that is a great addition as a competitive tool that we didn't have in the past.
You know, pipeline are very different from the onshore pipeline, in which the competitive environment is different and the complexity is different, and the offshore pipeline with coating and so on, in which the competitive environment is totally different, and let's say these are much more sophisticated product, higher margin, different story, so we tend to look at this in a separate way. For onshore pipeline, Argentina is important. In Argentina, condition are set for the investment.
The laws that were required has been approved. The new regime for large investment has been approved. The situation also, some of the key condition, macroeconomic condition, are more suitable for investment, so for instance, there is one large pipeline for evacuation from Vaca Muerta that is under discussion now. We do not know exactly when and what, but this kind of project onshore, like the one in Argentina, will go on. We are positive on this. Yeah.
I'd like to ask a little more about U.S. pricing. So Paolo, you said, I think, sort of stabilization here at the level of the most recent price levels we've seen. And I don't know, maybe this is for Luca, but just what is the mechanism to see prices start going up? Do we need to see rig count go up? Is it a matter of just absorbing the imports that have been come in and the overhang from the last several quarters? What do we need to see to see an uptick in prices?
There is a magic formula. There is a price of oil, potentially higher, import contained or going down. A price of hot-rolled coils supportive, which is important, because in the end, there is always part that is welded. There is, let's say, follow the, this, and rig count.
Yes.
You know, in our forecast, we are not envisaging for the next two years, let's say, the need to drill more to overcome some slight reduction in productivity of the well. What Luca was saying, the Tier 1, okay. When the Tier 2 start to be in operation, you need to drill more, because the well will have in specific production will be slightly lower.
So this is maybe a factor that may impact on the rig count over time. We don't include this, we don't consider this in the one, two years, but over time, there will be something of this. So the magic formula depends from different factor. I think, Luca, when the magic formula will start operating?
Now, the magician. No, there is one point that needs to be taken into consideration, which I somewhat hinted during my presentation. You guys, you look at the rig count as a proxy of pipe consumption, which is true to a certain extent. And there was an indication in the slide, 2019, 1,000 rigs, 5.5, well, total is Canada and U.S. in that chart. But you see, now today, 600, ballpark, 4.8 million.
M inus 15%, actually minus 12-13% in consumption, minus 40% in rigs. Now, this tendency of increased productivity is continually going on. It's not that necessarily the best rig is drilling in less days or is going longer, but you see the consistency, and Paolo was mentioning this, shale being more kind of manufacturing process. You see the consistency of all the rigs getting more and more accurate and around, and so the mean value of the rig days that are needed to drill is getting closer and closer and closer. So these rigs are consuming much, much more.
Now, in the last quarter of twenty twenty - sorry, second quarter of 2024, there was another step increase in this productivity. Just to give you a flavor, if this productivity would be maintained throughout the 2025, this will mean, with the same, let's say, input in terms of imports and domestic production, wiping off one month of inventory on the ground. There is this increase in productivity that is very important. Yes, one of the magic component of the formula is rig, but these rigs are continuously consuming more and more pipes.
Thanks. Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. Two questions. First, wonder whether you can give us a little bit of an update on your maintenance, that's going on. And secondly, you mentioned 20%-25% EBITDA margin, healthy backlog into Q1, and I know 2025 and 2026 are a long time away, but, you, you suggested we're sort of close to a trough. Would you argue that's true for the EBITDA margins as well, which is, of course, a product of US and international trends as you laid out, going in somewhat different directions? So I'll leave it here for now. Thank you.
Well, on the maintenance, we completed some of the major intervention. Now, the intervention in Mexico is ramping up, it's doing well. Intervention in Argentina, in which we substituted one electrical furnace with one electrical furnace that has the capability of, let's say, fulfilling basically the large part of the production of the steel in Argentina, and it's doing well. We are starting now, other-
Canada.
Canada and U.S. So we have some measure of this, but I would say at least halfway, we are doing, we are doing well. In this quarter, maybe the only event that affected us has been the sinking of one ship ...
Yes, we had that event.
With 7,000 tons in the Gulf, but this is something that-
Yes
O ne, let's say-
Collision of two vessels.
Collision in the Hormuz Strait.
Yes.
But apart from this, there are things that obviously have could impact. I think we are getting out of the maintenance cycle pretty well. As far as my comment on the what can envisage in 2025, if there are no particular change in the level of prices or so, I would expect that we will be able to maintain not to go below what we could expect in the next in this semester, with a margin in the range I would say between 20 and 35. I think we are in the middle of it, probably for this. On a revenue on a top line there is possibly 15% below what is the top line of the first semester, no?
Yeah.
Then, in two thousand and twenty-five, if the demand is gradually increasing, this is, let's say, what I would consider a floor from which we can go.
Thank you.
Paolo, I got a follow-up on how you and the board are thinking about the cash return. If you do not find a, you know, investment opportunity to pursue, when do you expect to update the market on your capital return plans, number one, and would it be reasonable to assume a similar program as you've outlined last November? And then maybe just one of the questions we get from investors is, do you see the value in Tenaris maybe providing a more visible cash return framework so investors can think about how you plan to distribute excess free cash flow throughout the cycle? So maybe formalizing a framework.
You have seen in the slide on the results that we have been increasing, you know, our dividend over time, and we have introduced buybacks. I think it would be reasonable in the next board meeting in November to consider to use the existing authorization of $700 million for additional buyback that could bridge until, let's say, the General Assembly or the assembly that are in May. So this would be a reasonable assumption, but the decision is obviously up to the board and looking at the different circumstances that are affecting our cash generation capability.
So this is where we are, and these are, let's say, the visibility we can probably give. On the long run, it will depend from, let's say, opportunity. If we see, we understand that, even for a conservative company, the level of cash is high, and that's the reason why you see in the trend, this increase and this buyback that we started. Because, you know, we almost completed the tranche that we launched in August, you know? We completed this.
Yes.
Now, the board in November will have to reconsider this.
Hi, thank you. The investments that you're making in renewable energy, what kind of returns on that investment are you expecting to see? And are you expecting more of, investments in energy infrastructure beyond that?
Return on investment, can you explain?
The $200 million that you're spending on wind farms. Do they have a payback period that we can rely on?
Well, you know, the wind farm, the one that is operating, has an extraordinary level of capacity factor. We are talking about sixty-
Yeah, about 60%.
I mean, more than probably the best wind farm that you can find in offshore North Sea, you know? For instance, is. Why? Because, the southern part of the province in Argentina, is suitable for this, and the second farm is in the same place. The rate of return depends on, let's say, how you compare your cost of energy, and which will be the expected cost of energy, in Argentina. But is, with no subsidy, I would say, is a interesting rate of return, with no subsidy in any point of the system, no? So this is uncommon. If we want to do the same in Europe, it will be very difficult.
Yeah.
It will be impossible. This is telling us something also on, let's say, what we can do in this. I don't know if this is answering your question, but because the return in the end is compared to the alternative that we have, and even in Argentina, in which the cost of energy is probably almost much lower than in Europe, and not far from the level of U.S. In this environment, the wind farm has a significant return.
It adds also a point of reliability, you know.
Yeah.
As well, because in Latin America, we have seen over the years, I mean, we have some shutdowns of electricity. So this, our own generation of electricity, besides giving us an advantageous cost, give us also an important security of supply of energy.
Yeah. In the case of Argentina, you know, Argentina in this summer will be exposed-
Yeah
N ot because of our wind farm, but because of the network and the lack of generation in some area, in the area of Buenos Aires.
Yes.
So it isn't we are not really exempt from possible interruption due to the curtailment that could happen if the demand in Buenos Aires in summer is very high, and due to lack of investment in the last 10 years in generation and grid. Argentina has issues that are coming from its previous government that will have to be addressed and solved over time, no? This could maybe affect to some extent our let's say the ability of using all this capability directly, you know?
Okay. I think we there are no other question. Let me thank you very, very much for participating, for coming and paying attention to Tenaris. And please keep in contact with our people in investor relations for any question you may have, or any doubt also on the material and the comments that were made. Thank you very, very much.