Hello. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Tenaris Investor Presentation. Thank you very much for being here with us today. We are very happy to be back in New York after quite a long time. Before we move on, I would like to remind you that during this event we will be disclosing forward-looking information and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during our presentation. Let me now introduce you the program that we have for you today.
We will start with a presentation by our Chairman and CEO, Paolo Rocca, together with Luca Zanotti, head of our U.S. operations, and Gabriel Podskubka, head of our Eastern Hemisphere operations. After the presentation, we will have a short video on our global operations.
After the short video, we will go straight to the Q&A session. For the Q&A session, we will also have the participation of Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer, Guillermo Vogel, Vice Chairman and member of our board of directors, and Germán Curá, Vice Chairman and member of our board of directors. For the Q&A, I would also ask you if you could wait for the microphone, and use the microphone, and introduce yourself when asking a question.
After the Q&A, for those of you who wish to stay, there will be a buffet lunch, and this will give you more time with the management team here with us today in New York. Thank you again. Now I will ask Paolo, Luca, and Gabriel to start.
Well, thank you, Giovanni. This is working. Thank you, Giovanni, and thank you all for coming, for being here. For me, really is a pleasure, but also is something very important to be able, after the pandemic, to get back to New York, go back to a routine of meetings, in-person meetings with our investors. This is very important for us .
We are celebrating today the 20th year of listing in the NYSE. This has been a long journey over these 20 years, but really the change in Tenaris has been substantial. When we started listing in 2002, Tenaris was a totally different company.
It was a group of companies not still integrated by a common management with a common government and, let's say, integrated by links in commercial, industrial R&D. It was, I mean, a group of companies that lacked the bond that today form in Tenaris.
The size of the company was much smaller. We were around 11,000 people at the time. Today we are 24,000 people that are working in Tenaris. It was a company that had no clear product, premium product or special product development yet. We had some product for complex application, but basically we're in the API business. Our major export market was China. In 2000 we were selling in the export in China, and we were focused on the domestic market.
Over time, this has changed dramatically because we were, at that time, establishing our research, development, operation in different countries. We went on developing product for a changing world, because also the world was different. Shales were not there. Offshore was very different from the deep offshore that we are addressing today.
The competitive environment was different. There were Japanese companies, European companies, American companies that were competing in our space, which was serving the energy worldwide. If you look at this on any account, from the point of view of the global integration of Tenaris, from the point of view of product, from the point of view of the competitive environment, the world has changed substantially, and Tenaris has taken a leading role in this.
Today, I think there is no doubt that Tenaris is the leader company. From where we were 20 years ago to today, the change has been substantial. Today, we are the leading company in offering solution for every application, for the most complex application. We have a solid presence from a manufacturing commercial activity in all of the main areas of the world.
The differentiation that I mentioned here with competitor increase over time, and today Tenaris is a very different company. We started as a producer of seamless and welded pipe. We are now supplying services, our Rig Direct RunReady product, we arrived to the rig with a portfolio of services. We are really, I would say, more of a service company than pure manufacturing company. We started from one point, we arrive in a different.
Today, we are even doing fracking in Argentina. When we see that the client needs a higher level and are considering us a reliable partner, even for services that were not really at the origin on what we are doing. The team of Tenaris change very much over time. At the beginning, the diversity were very limited on any account.
Gender diversity, nationality diversity was much more limited at the time. In these 20 years, we build a substantial global diverse team with the ability to be present and close to the client, on their language, on their culture, in any different environment.
We are proud of this because all of our people did an outstanding job in all of the different regions and in all the different sectors of the company in building this leadership position on product, in the R&D, on service, on global spread. Now, something that is still at the core of our activity is energy.
Energy has been the driver for our action. It's been the driver of our strategy. It's been the driver of our investment, M&A, and organic investment. Energy still today, as in the past, is at the center of the global agenda. Today, energy is facing, I think, two very relevant structural challenges. One is the geopolitical, the change in the geopolitical situation. The other one is the energy transition.
At the core, energy continue to be essential for the growth and development of the world. There is a strict relation between ener gy and social economic development of every countries and every communities. Energy continue to be there.
These are data that are coming from an American governmental agency that is the Energy Information Administration. The world primary energy consumption, that is overall consumption of energy, is forecasted to grow from now to 2050 by around 50%. What does this mean?
The growth of the world, the entrance of people from Southeast Asia, from India, from Africa, and the increase in the income and in the level of life and the quality of life will inevitably bring an increased demand for energy. This is primary energy. The point is how the matrix that, let's say, the composition of the energy could change over time from now until 2050. Nobody can, let's say, have a serious, soundly based forecast on the role that every different source of energy could play.
What we can see, and for instance, in this kind of exercise of scenario, is that the oil and gas will inevitably continue to have a role in the global energy matrix. Coal will gradually go down and will arrive to where we do not know as how, let's say, how low the share will become in the matrix. Oil will continue to grow and gas will substitute part of this renewable.
As you see, the growth in renewable, that is the green line, will be very, very strong. The base, the starting point is very low. Today, wind and solar represent around 3% of the global primary energy energy matrix. They could grow, and in this pace, they are increasing very much, but still they cannot substitute, let's say, the role of fossil fuel entirely.
Fossil fuel consumption will continue to grow. We need to project and work and adapt to this changing environment and to this energy transition in a practical, concrete, and consistent way. When we discuss internally in Tenaris where will be the demand and the supply, the production supply of oil and gas and how this will move, we are using a short-term horizon.
A horizon that in our view is more predictable, it's credible. In this horizon, we see that the role of gas and oil will continue to be very relevant, even if the role of renewable will increase very fast. This is essential for designing our strategy of global worldwide presence and our plan for investment and deployment in this. I would say there are structural challenge.
The geopolitical challenge is substantial. After the fall of the Soviet Union in the '90s, the world had a long period of a new geopolitical equilibrium. I think that this is now over. We are entering into a new stage in which the issue of energy in relation with strategic position of the recent division is becoming much more important.
Energy independence, energy security is becoming a key driver of the policy of the oil company and of the government in different parts of the world. The experience of Europe is exposing the risk of dependency on single source and of an approach to energy that is less compatible with a global world in which conflicts are basically manageable.
Today, we see in the example of Europe, how this environment is changing. Energy security, energy independence, redefinition of the supply chain, including our supply, the supply chain of, the supplier of product and service for the oil industry is driving, the investment in oil and gas for the future. Tenaris is in an extraordinary position for this because we have presence in all the different areas, and we have a supply chain that is based, as I was saying, Atlantic.
We have a presence in the United States. United States are becoming, with Canada, extremely important for Tenaris. We have a strong roots and strong operation in Latin America, in Europe. We are serving operations in the Middle East and everywhere.
Basically, our supply chain is a solid, reliable supply chain that I would call, I was saying, Atlantic. When you look at the decision that the oil company should take, energy independence will, for instance, change on the medium term, the logic of investment in areas like United States, Canada, Australia, because it will drive investment in which with a criteria of security prevailing sometime over efficiency. Everybody is doing this.
Every company today are reviewing supply chain. We are also doing this with our supply chain. We have a wide network of suppliers. We also look in our supply chain on two issues, on commitment to decarbonization, but at the same time on solidity of the structure in front of disruption. Tenaris is well positioned for this. It's not one plant in one place.
It is a system with many fallback positions that could face disruption. The energy transition is for sure the second structural component of the transformation of energy. We all need to have a clear target and identify the path to improve our carbon profile, reduce our carbon emission. Everybody is looking at this and is designing plans for this.
Tenaris is doing this with clear target. Our target of reduction of CO2 emission by 30% by 2030 is a driver for all of our people. Today, our system is the low carbon system among all of our competitor. We have all electric arc furnaces, and we can progressively substitute fossil fuels with eolic or solar in different region according to the efficiency of our program.
We are doing this on an important scale in this moment in Argentina, and we will continue to do it on a worldwide level. Energy is at the center, but where are we today as Tenaris? In a quick view, manufacturing operations cover 15 countries. You look at the map, you see the spread of the industrial facility, service facility, and offices all around the world.
The service centers are in 25 countries and are covering the most important centers relevant for oil and gas industry production. A second aspect on which we transform the company is the digitalization. Today, every pipe that goes out from the mills and cross through the supply chain and goes to a client is identified one by one.
There are metrics code that allow to track the material and up to the moment in which it is used. We are digitally introducing digitalization in most of the process that of the company in different area, but especially in what is our manufacturing and supply chain system. This been a big effort, but is clearly transforming the company from where it was before.
As I were mentioning, the carbon intensity of our operation is among the lowest in our sector because five steel shop all with electric furnaces as compared to the blast furnaces of most of our competitor, a clear improvement in term of carbon emission. What we can do to decarbonize this line is investing in renewable is a clear path. I mean, we have a clear path.
Blast furnaces are more difficult to decarbonize. There is not a clear path. You need to understand how carbon capture and storage c ould play a role or a different way of transforming the process could gradually drive the decarbonization. In our case, I think that we have a low carbon emission system and a path for reducing even more of this.
Tenaris today is serving all the relevant key players in the industry. The product portfolio is covering all the needs. There are no other companies that today has a portfolio of welded, seamless, diameter-specific products, complexity of premium joints, as the one that Tenaris could supply. No other company is able to combine in our Rig Direct approach, production, supply chain and service to the client. There is a big difference.
I mean, Tenaris is differentiated in this from any of our competitor. I mean, the structure of our sales worldwide. Today, around 50% of our sales goes to U.S. and Canada. Many years ago, we were selling in the U.S., but we had almost no industrial structure in the U.S. Today, we have a substantial industrial structure in the U.S. and 50% of our sales are going to U.S. and to Canada.
The Rig Direct, I'm saying in the presentation, that 60% worldwide of our OCTG sales goes with a Rig Direct directly to the drilling rig and our followers. There are no distributor in the middle. The same approach we apply for other product, not only our OCTG.
Increasingly, we are using digitalization as a tool for differentiation in the big line pipe project. Energy will continue to maintain its preeminence in the agenda of the different countries of the world. The oil company will invest in drilling, but also the connection. The line pipe for the offshore are very relevant, and that part are not included in this graph.
This graph is just covering the OCTG, but you should consider that associated with this dynamic of the OCTG, there is also a line pipe demand worldwide. There is increasing, if not online, at least following the investment in the complex offshore project. Tenaris today has a structure of product development and R&D that no other competitor has. We are developing also product for low carbon application. The hydrogen chain is requiring special product.
The carbon capture and storage is requiring special product. We are developing the product, even if we look in our overall sales, this still represent a very small part of our overall sale. We are preparing for what for sure it will be coming gradually, as I was saying before, in a gradual process of decarbonization.
When you look at the global demand of oil country tubular goods, here we are presenting the data for 2023. We expect after the recovery in 2022, that in 2023, the demand for pipes will continue to increase. There is included in this number in U.S. and Canada also a recovery rebound of the inventory on the ground. We consider around 400,000 tons of inventory will increase.
This is apparent demand, not, let's say, consumption. You see the increase in the U.S. and Canada from 5.7 million - 6.7 million. Is a substantial increase. This is our view in a world in which economic activity will slow down, more significant in Europe, less significant in the United States.
Price of energy will decouple to some extent from the overall dynamic of the economy for the reason that I was mentioning before. The need of energy independence, energy security is driving investment in energy and price of energy to a different level. The war in Europe is driving LNG price, as you know very well, energy price at an extraordinarily high level.
The complexity of the geopolitics is favoring a decoupling of the overall pricing of energy from, let's say, the dynamic that very likely the economy could have. That is why we consider that this environment, we will have a positive demand environment in 2023. Not only in the U.S. and Canada, but also in international arena, where Gabriel will comment later on this.
There will be increase in the overall demand. In this environment, our volume, our overall sales will increase, and we expect will continue to increase, not only in this semester but also in the first semester of 2023, because we see that this demand. In this increased demand, we will play a very relevant role.
I will pass now the floor to.
Thank you, Paolo.
Zanotti.
Sorry
You need to point this.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Thank you, Paolo. Some of you know me already. For those that don't, I'm Luca Zanotti. I'm the responsible for Tenaris operation in the United States. I wanna tie it in on what Paolo's just finished saying, starting from the U.S. and Canada. As you have seen, U.S. and Canada are back to pre-pandemic levels. We are estimating a market which is more or less 5.7 million tons, which is exactly what we had. Actually, it's slightly higher what we had in 2019. Now, this is happening with a number of rigs, with the rig activity that is lower, especially in the United States.
We are running at this level with 200 rigs less than the average of 2019, which testifies how the operators were able to improve efficiency on the one hand, and on the other hand, this also shows how they are concentrating in the more productive assets or place. Now, in this big market, which is, as you saw, the largest in the United States, how Tenaris position themselves.
To explain this, I need to go back to 2000, because we started off with Algoma in 2000, we had a very long trajectory in which we invested more than $12 billion. We went on in 2006 with the acquisition of Maverick, 2007 with the acquisition of Hydril. We moved to a growth through new projects.
2013, we started off our new endeavor in Bay City, Texas. Big investment in Bay City. Started off 2013. Continued investing, thanks to the strong financial shoulder that we had, even during the crisis of 2015, 2016. Completed in 2017, right before we saw the rebound in the market. By the way, yesterday we broke the monthly record production in Bay City of 60,000 tons.
Kudos to the team in Bay City. I was talking about the trajectory, and with this trajectory, the last step chronologically was the acquisition of IPSCO that happened in January 2020. Now, if you look at our footprint, you can easily see that we are well positioned to efficiently serve any basin in U.S. and Canada.
There are other features that I would like to highlight, because I go back to the risk of supply chain, global supply chain. The acquisition of IPSCO ga ve us the possibility for the first time to have a domestic steel making in the United States. This is very important, not only because nowadays the United States represents a very efficient platform cost-wise, especially when you consider asymmetries in input costs, like energy compared to other parts in the world.
Also because nowadays global supply chains are being challenged. The fact that we can manufacture steel in the United States, it is very important. It's so important that we also decide to expand manufacturing capacity there.
We are investing as we speak, and this will also provide the possibility of greatly improving the environmental performance of this steel mill. All these set of assets makes Tenaris the largest pipe maker in the United States and Canada on both sides, either seamless or welded. Now, on top of this very powerful industrial footprint, we mounted Rig Direct.
What is Rig Direct? Paolo already made a point on this. Basically, if you go back, traditionally in the United States, our world was split in many different actors. We had the mill, the mill were producing pipes, but in some cases, they were not finishing, so they had to rely on processors that maybe were heat treating and threading, or in some cases, only threading.
When the pipe was finished, then we had a third-party inspector coming in at the yard, generally, testing the pipe to make sure that the pipe was reaching the standard that the E&Ps were specifying. There was the distributor that was orchestrating the whole process, and being responsible for the last leg of the pipe to the well site.
Now, with this asset, we were able to take an overall responsibility of this, and this is a factor that is very well appreciated by all the customers, having one reference point. Not only this, obviously we are offering our unique quality system in which it doesn't matter where the pipe come from. This is as long as it is Tenaris and it is produced according to our standards.
Now, being close to the customers, what has helped us doing? Basically synchronizing our mill schedule with the production schedule of the E&P. Today, we are gathering through digitalization, the demand that is coming from the rig side, and we are integrating this and scheduling our mills according to this.
This is very important because by doing this, we have been able to manage the whole distribution with a fraction of the total inventory that the industry used to. These are just few, let's say, features of the Rig Direct. What it really counts is the proximity to the customers.
What I'm saying is that based on the understanding of what the customer needs, for example, we were able to develop our new Wedge Connection Series that goes under the name of 400 that has had a huge success in the United States. We were able to integrate them.
80% of our customers in the United States are interacting with us through a portal in which they have access to different features, including the possibility of calling out a pipe when it is needed or making the whole invoicing system much more smooth. On this, we can also build other services. Paolo was talking about RunReady. What is RunReady?
In the past, typically, a pipe was going to a well, and then we had a crew called the CVD crew that was going out to the well site to basically tally, to drift and to inspect the connections. With our digital integration and the tracking, this is going away. We are not only delivering the pipe at the well, but also the pipe that is at the well is ready to be run.
This is very important because it takes out costs, and in the end, here, the game is to make the whole supply chain more efficient. It reduces people driving to the well, which is a major safety concern for our customers, and it allows integration digitally.
For example, by reading one of the barcode that are available on the pipe, the length of the pipe goes straight into the running system of the operator that doesn't need to tally and then upload the. These are just few examples of what Rig Direct can do, and this is something that our customer appreciate a lot. We started off with a big operator because these were the ones that were more prone to adopt early this kind of operation.
T his give us a big advantage because if you look at our customer portfolio, we are very well positioned on all the majors, the large independent, and this is a key asset for us going forward because as you know, these guys owns all the most productive assets or leases in the U.S. and Canada.
This is making us a domestic producer, the largest one, and also, today, as we speak, 80% of what is being sold in the United States is produced in the United States. Big player industrially, and also the player that is playing the lion's share in terms of sales, as Paolo was saying, before.
Now, Benteler. Benteler is the last step of the trajectory that I was telling before. It is still under antitrust approval, but when this is gonna be over, this is gonna provide us additional other features that are very nicely complementing our footprint. First of all, this is very well located in Louisiana, which is very close to a very important asset, which is the Haynesville, very rich of dry gas.
Second, it will allow us synergies in allocation, because we're gonna start playing with the different sizes and locating small sizes on Benteler and bigger sizes, which will make our production system more efficient. Third, will allow us to branch out a little bit from this OCTG and move into the mechanical.
We are selling mechanical products in the United States, but now we're gonna this can make us a domestic producer also for these products, and also, on the smaller diameter line pipe, that basically we're not playing in the United States at this stage. To summarize, first. The U.S. and Canada are back. We are back big, and we are the largest market.
Tenaris is positioned as the largest domestic manufacturer, both in U.S. and Canada, and we play the lion's share in sales as well. With this, I want to hand it over to Gabriel, and I'll be glad to take any question after the presentation is finished.
Thank you, Luca. Good morning, everyone. Pleasure to be here today. Just a word on the Middle East. I think everybody knows the Middle East is at the core of the energy markets. About 2/3 of the world's oil and gas reserves are in the Middle East. The lowest lifting costs, high quality reservoir have made the Middle East the number one exporter region of hydrocarbons.
This is very important. With everything that Paolo explained earlier about energy security, I think it's very easy to understand that the Middle East has an increasing role stabilizing the energy markets, and the main producers in the Gulf are acting on this call. We see that happening. I live there.
I've been living there for a number of years, and I see a lot of activity, increasing in drilling activity, increasing in rigs, building production and spare capacity. We see, for example, Saudi Arabia increasing their capacity, deploying projects to move from 12 million barrels to 13 million barrels. We see also the UAE has been recently announced their acceleration plan to pass from 4 million barrels to 5 million barrels by 2025.
I think we all have seen also how Qatar has been quite vocal about exporting their LNG capacity and increasing that capacity by 60% in the next 5 years. The region is really moving with the traditional drive of exports of hydrocarbon. This is not the only thing that is driving the energy needs in the region, because the domestic market is as well growing.
A fast-growing young population in the country, and governments that are really committed and driving investments to diversify the economies in the Middle East are also drivers of this activity. This is not only about growth. The societies in the Middle East are changing. I've been living there, and I see the pace of change almost in every aspect of life.
This is something that is noticeable and is also affecting our customers. Our NOCs, which are the main owners of the resources in the Middle East, are changing as well. When I arrived, their traditional approach to suppliers was very transactional. As many suppliers as they could qualify, competitive tenders and no challenging of the status quo. This is changing. Over the last years, they have a different approach.
They want to engage with a few selected suppliers that can really collaborate under long-term agreements and can generate value and support their investment, their local content policies that they want to have in place. They are be coming agents of change. I think as Tenaris, we have leveraged this changing context to our advantage. As a matter of fact, in the last three years, we have closed long-term agreements with all the NOCs of the region.
We have become the supplier of choice in the Middle East. I would mention, for example, that we brought value pioneering the Rig Direct present in many parts in the Americas, but we brought that a few years ago into the Emirates, has been a success. We have been pioneering that from concept to implementation.
Today, we are serving under this just-in-time mode, half of the rigs of ADNOC. The customer is satisfied, and they are even exporting this model to other product lines outside tubulars. Another distinctive factor has been our commitment to invest and to support these local content policies. Today, Tenaris has the broadest service and industrial footprint in the Middle East.
In addition to the industrial facilities that we have in Saudi Arabia, we are presently investing in a new state-of-the-art threading facility that will be ready by this time next year in Abu Dhabi. I'm quite confident that on the work that has been done by the team over the last few years, the Middle East will be entering a phase of growth. Typically, these cycles are a bit longer.
We don't have these ups and down that are very quick, like in the Americas. It is my expectation that this will be a multi-year growth cycle and that the Middle East will be an engine of growth for Tenaris for the quarters and years to come. Let me move on to the offshore, which is also another important region for Tenaris, a very relevant differentiated segment.
We are also seeing a very positive dynamic. The amount of projects, the amount of FIDs being considered is already up above pre-pandemic levels. What we are seeing in the discussion with our customers, we expect next year to be a very high value of FIDs, new investment decisions in 2023 that will probably the largest over the last almost decade. The area is really moving.
There are three pockets of activity. We have the first one is the projects of oil that are yielding higher returns and that can be monetized in the short term. These are also typically aligned with countries where the development of these resources will contribute their economies. This is the case of Guyana, Brazil, Angola.
These are some examples of areas that are very dynamic. In this first pocket. The second pocket is related to the LNG. We talk about the situation in Europe, but in general, LNG. The majority of LNG outside North America is developed offshore. In addition to the Qatar that I mentioned before, also the LNG, we see activity and new projects being considered in Oceania, Southeast Asia, West Africa, East Africa.
We see a wave of projects coming because the price of LNG, I think there is a consensus that it will be high during the next few years supportive of that. The third pocket of activity with everything that's happening in Europe are those gas developments with potential pipeline connectivity to Europe. North Sea, Black Sea, the Mediterranean as well offer opportunities to alleviate the situation in Europe.
We are seeing a lot of projects being considered under fast track, and we are following that closely. Overall, these are the different latitudes, different drivers. The offshore, I think, always calls. There is a common characteristics that are the high technical complexity, reliable execution, and critical risk management. This is always at the core, and is a common element for these projects to succeed.
As Paolo was explaining before, over the years, Tenaris has built an undisputed position as a global leader in offshore, and we are participating in all these basins that I mentioned before. I think our technological leadership and full set of products set us apart.
We have pioneered, for example, the Dopeless many years ago in the offshore in North Sea, has become an industry standard for the offshore, today being used more than 250 customers worldwide. I think our Wedge Series 600 also has been specifically designed to withstand the most demanding applications, and is a testament to our R&D capabilities. The connectors product line has been also important. Makes Tenaris the only supplier in the world that can provide the tubulars for a full column in offshore. We are the only ones completed with a conductor.
Also, I think our pipeline offering, Paolo mentioned that as well slightly, is something that is very distinctive. This is something that we have the most comprehensive track record in the industry of pipelines and offshore. We have recently completed an investment in Dalmine, upgrading our facility and preparing for this new cycle. We have a unique advantage in our seamless offering in pipelines, very well complemented by our large OD diameter welded pipes as well.
Overall, I think Tenaris has compelling competitive advantages to lead this new positive cycle in offshore. We have already, in the last few years, established the contracts and the long-term agreements in the most promising areas. We have long-term agreements with ExxonMobil in Guyana, with Petrobras.
We have agreement with the majors in the most important basins, Gulf of Mexico, West Africa, Southeast Asia as well. We have leading contracts with the leading IOCs in the North Sea, and we have led all the developments in the Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean so far. I'm quite confident as well we are entering a positive cycle in the offshore, and this will be an important contributor for Tenaris going forward. Thank you.
We can continue. The opportunities in U.S. and Canada demand on offshore. It's working. The demand from offshore, and we will see in a moment, also the opportunity that come from Latin America. But just to underline which is our view. Our view is that the investment in the exploration and production that went down, driven by the sense that oil and gas maybe, let's say, phasing out faster in an environment of very fast energy transition, this sense, I think, is changing. Everybody's realizing that without investment in exploration and production, the world will remain without energy in key area. This is the driver that will support investment in the different region in my view.
In a previous slide, we were showing, I think here, in the global exploration and production CapEx, the decline of the exploration and production CapEx, we think that this will rebound and will support the decoupling between the slowdown in the economy and the support in the energy sector.
In this sense, the energy transition will find a new consistency between the fast development or the pace of development of the renewable and other sources, and the need of continuing to preserve supply of oil and gas in this environment. Where this return to investment in E&P will happen? Well, in the region that we were mentioning, in U.S. and Canada and Middle East, in offshore, and also, to some extent, we expect in Latin America.
Not only in the offshore of Guyana of Brazil that for sure are strong areas that will have very strong development in this. I think there are also resources and opportunities in the different countries. In Mexico on one side, even if today Mexico is relatively stable, and we expect to remain relatively stable under the present administration.
The potential for growth is there in some moment, is part of the energy system of North America, and may come back with contributing more to the energy supply system in North America. Argentina and Colombia and the Andean region are also important, more for Tenaris because Tenaris has a very solid industrial position in all of these countries, and a very relevant market share in all of them.
What is happening here is very relevant for the sales revenue line and sales of Tenaris. In the case of Argentina, the resources of Vaca Muerta are extraordinary. I mean, when we talk about 300 TCF of gas, we are managing one of the largest reserves in the world. The development of the resources of oil and gas in the shale formation in Vaca Muerta doesn't present technical complexity, because in the end, the distance from the sea, the opportunity, possibility of developing is very real. I mean, we are not facing extremely complex technical challenge from this. There is the need of political stability and the macroeconomic that should allow investment to come here.
The first step, I mean, in Argentina, has been the approval of the new pipeline that is incrementing the evacuation capacity of Vaca Muerta. It's only a first step, but is an investment in the range of $2 billion. Tenaris is participating strongly. For us, it's a contract in the range of $600 million for the pipes in the first stage. There is a second stage.
There is under design, and Argentina is looking for opportunity for financing this. The development of Vaca Muerta entails not only the pipelines for the evacuation, but many other pipelines to collect gas from different area of a very large formation. Drilling to get the resources that may support an increased production.
The development of Vaca Muerta has many different facets, and in a politically stable environment or in a macroeconomic environment, more stable than what we have today, is very possible that project on the value chain of gas may develop. LNG, there are many companies studying, looking into the feasibility of this.
This imply pipeline that go to the coast. Plant of separation of propane and butane and transportation to the coast. Different way of adding value like fertilizer. Imagine the potential for this development of the gas value chain and on the oil value chain, because the reserves are also very important. In my view, will drive investment in this. This is very important for Tenaris.
We have a very strong positioning in Argentina for the OCTG, for the line pipe, for all the activity related to the development of Vaca Muerta. In the case of Mexico, as I were mentioning, Mexico has resources of. The point is, if in some moment, I don't think in this administration, but there could be a new renew drive for developing the existing resources of Mexico, and this also is an area in which Tenaris is extremely strong. Is also true in the Andean. We have substantial industrial operation in Colombia. We have also a small industrial operation, but we are very present in Ecuador, in Peru.
We can also in that area, let's say, be a big important player in the case and in the moment in which the macroeconomic and the political conditions allow further development. But it's also important considering the situation in Europe, there is a traction for this. European company, European government are looking for alternative that could diversify the mix for Europe and in general, in the U.S.
To be able to strengthen the capacity of production of oil and gas in the region of the Americas is also something that is considered a relevant objective, a relevant target. Do we require changes in the policy? Yes. But there are many reasons to do this, and we expect this to be strong driver for Tenaris financial performance.
As I was saying before, in the last 20 years, many things change and also the financial strength of the company increase very much. We are now back to record level on any or all of the lines. In terms of sales in the first half of 2022, we are reaching $5 billion. We expect that in the second half we may be, as I was saying, the high teens increase for the first line on the revenue line. EBITDA is also getting to the highest level in the last 10 years. It is record level for the last 10 years.
We expect also that you see here the ratio of the EBITDA ratio is reaching 28% the first semester, and we expect this to go in the 30%, in the level of 30% in the second semester. Profitability, the margin of the company will also increase on an increased revenue. Net income is at record level. Cash flow from operation, this in this moment is stressed by the need to build the working capital. For instance, we have the contract for the new pipeline in Argentina. This pipeline have driven increase in our stock of steel.
In general, the increase in volume and increase in sales that we expect in the next semester, in the beginning of 2023, are driving increase in our overall chain, from steel to work in process to material ready for delivery. Also, prices of our import are raising the level of our working capital absorption. We will expect to start releasing in the fourth quarter of this year important part of this working capital. Investment capital expenditure this year, as we were mentioning in the conference call, will be in the range of $430 million.
In the next 2023, we expect this number to increase, but still be above $430 million, but below the lower level of depreciation and amortization. Also in terms of dividends, this does not depend on us, but the board will consider this overall environment in the decision that we will have to take starting in November of this year. The net financial position is very strong.
This is one of the key component of our strategy, to maintain financial strength, that allow us to move fast when we perceive there are opportunities to reposition the company in a different environment, in a different area, in a different product, in a different situation.
We always have been conducting the company with a very strong financial position because we feel that we have room for maneuvering in this. Return on equity is also getting back to a record level, so the financial performance of the company is very good.
As I was saying before, in an environment in which investment in exploration and production will need to recover, just to recover the consistency even of the energy transition and the geopolitical complexity that we are facing, we are pretty confident on this sector for the time to come, even in an environment in which the economy may probably slow down even more in Europe, probably also in the United States, to some extent that is difficult to predict today. We will be closing here. The messages are the ones that we send.
Tenaris is very strong on any account, in deployment, in the team, in its people, in, let's say the positioning in the different market, environment in which the competitive environment has changed, and the differentiation of Tenaris is stronger than ever. We will be actively contributing to the energy transition with our own decarbonization.
We are now the lowest, in my view, among our competitors, and one of the lowest in the steel industry, but we will continue to decarbonize our line. We know that we have to do this, and this is essential for the country in which we operate, the community in which we operate. We will continue to invest, as I was mentioning, to improve the production supply chain efficiency through digitalization.
Digitalization of, from automation in the plant to digitalization of the process to follow up on the supply chain is a, let's say, a key differentiator for Tenaris. This is something that the oil company are today appreciating very, very much because it's giving them quality, reliability, control of their supply chain. The supply chain not only must be secure because of the origin, it must be also solid and robust in terms of fallback position, but must also be transparent, and digitalization is very important for this.
Financial strength, as you saw in the numbers, is part of our strategy. We will not give up on this under any condition. We proved this in the ups and downs of the past. Sustainability, people at the same level of our goal performance, I would say community. There is no industrial success without sustainability.
A strong relation with the communities in which we have our root, that are supporting us in difficult moment, supporting and to which we need to. We have a responsibility in the moment in which the company is doing well and our people. These have all been possible, thanks to our people all around the world.
Their commitment during the pandemic and over this ten-year has been extraordinary and, I think that this is really the strongest aspect of Tenaris as a company, is the support that we get from our people everywhere, in every region, in every area, in every sector. I would close here. We're planning to have one hour on our presentation, and then we will open for any question that you may have now.
There's the video.
By clicking, you drive. Okay. Let's start. If you have a microphone.
Hey, thanks. So the forecast that you had for volume growth for 2023, I'm curious, as you were talking earlier, Paolo, about the Atlantic-centric nature of the business, I would exclude the Russia and China pieces because you're not exposed to that growth. If I do that, it's about a 15% growth rate, which I think most would think is a high growth rate for oil field activity.
I'm curious, one, what gives you confidence in that? Two, would Tenaris take share in that growth, or would you grow with the market? Would you grow less than the market? Just curious how you think about that.
Well, as I was saying before, I'm confident that energy will maintain a level of growth. Investment, exploration and production are needed, and they will continue even in an environment in which the economy is slowing down. This is an assumption. You can look at it from different angle, but in my view, the crisis in Europe is also supporting this.
I mean, there is a sense that energy is again the center of the geopolitical arena. Now, in this environment, if these are, as I was showing, the level of expansion of the activity, I think we are positioned to have expansion in our operation in line or depending on the distribution among the regions, even to some extent exceeding this. In products like line pipe, because, you know, we sell OCTG.
Oil country tubular goods is only a part of our portfolio. There are also line pipe, let's call it low-end pipeline, like welded pipeline, but also very complex pipeline for the offshore operation. Depending on how the segment develop, we may be expanding our operation at the pace that you are mentioning or even to some extent above this, if this is happening in region in which we have higher m arket share.
This is briefly, let's say, my view. I want to make one caution on this. Today, there are uncertainty on many different aspect, on inflation, on interest rate, on the geopolitical situation. I mean, probably I've never seen a situation in which so many factor of uncertainty are present. This is what we can imagine, but the world today is very complex and difficult to predict.
Certainly. The follow-up to that is, I think I heard you mention above 30% margin in the back half of the year. The message earlier was that third quarter would be steady with second quarter. Does this imply that we're in the low 30s in the fourth quarter? What is the implication for 2023? How long can you hang on to that margin, or do you see it expanding further from there as we enter 2023?
Well, there are some factor that, for instance, the cost of energy in Europe is affecting us and is part of, let's say, this equation. Our margin also depend for our cost. We have more than 1 million tons of production in Europe. To some extent, we may be exposed to variation due to inflation on energy there. This is, on the other side, the price level that we're having in the United States is relatively high.
It's supported by strong demand. It will depend from the price of oil if this may go up and down because the oil and gas system in U.S., in my view, is kind of financially close to a bubble. To the extent the escalation in prices increase, investment will grow.
To the extent to which this will go down, maybe investment may go down and demand may go down because there is not so much financial impact inside or outside of this, of the energy sector today. It's not easy to forecast, but I think we can stand and stay at this level of margin, even looking, let's say, to the future beyond the fourth quarter.
Thank you.
Yes. Just to follow up on your comments about our more fragmented world that you're operating in. How do you see that affecting pricing as you go in various markets and your cost base and in the end, of course, margins? Is that something that you see having an important effect or will things, you know, be more or less in the same relationship, so it doesn't have as an important effect on your margins going out over time?
One of the important difference for Tenaris is the geographic distribution of its industrial system, and to some extent also the geographical and typology differentiation of the markets. I think we should be able to defend, let's say, this level of margin, provided we don't face a collapse in the price of oil, which I don't anticipate.
By the way, the factor that may change the thing is the moment in which, let's say, price of oil goes below a certain level, in which case the market will, let's say, the gap between inventory and demand also may drive down the level of price. For the time being, I don't anticipate this, but the geographical distribution, in my view, add strength to our financial and, let's say, to our industrial and commercial positioning.
Because in the end, we are relying on many engines, and we can substitute to some extent one with the other. I think I don't expect big disruption on the cost side. On the structure of the market, I think we shouldn't have major change. I would ask, very briefly to you, how you see-
Yes.
The price environment in the United States that is very important for us.
Look, as we see, the market today, even with the modest growth, the market will remain tight. You look at imports, and frankly, you just start doing the math, and you even if you go back to the first quarter of 2015 in which we had the regular imports, and you start taking out the quota of Korea that cannot come in, G ermany is out.
I mean, you see that even on the import side, there is limited growth. Now, when we go to the domestic and you look at the ERW, which today is the only capacity that can come on stream, the seamless is already, let's say, firing on all cylinders.
Well, what you see is that notwithstanding the fact that now we have a spread between the PipeLogix and the HRC that is astronomically high, made more than $1,000, you see the people starting to catch up. Why is that so? Well, first, there is shortage of labor. Second, it requires financial investment to bring back online plants that have been idle for years, and some of the competitors don't have. Third, from the moment in which if you're lucky enough to get a person, then you bring him in. From the moment you bring him in, then you need to go through the training and safety on the production cycle.
You're gonna have three or four months for this person that you were lucky and brought in to be able to produce some ton. They are catching up, but there's not much they can do on this side as well. If there is a consistent, even not in our forecast, we don't see rig exploding. If we have a marginal increase in demand, the market will remain tight.
Yeah. The price situation is also important in the offshore and so on.
Yeah.
Your point?
Yeah, from one point of view, the pricing dynamic is positive. The competitive environment is getting better in this year. It is not very much related to the PipeLogix. There are different players, supply and demand forces, but we see that improving. On one side, well, I think it was clear with the Middle East and the offshore, the demand is there, is growing, so the market is becoming tighter.
Also, if you look at the top-tier players in international markets over the last few years, they have either reduced shift, reduced partial capacity, or even announced some full shutdowns of facilities. The supply is different than the one that we had a few years ago. All that combined, I think is creating a better and healthier pricing environment.
We have in the last few months, since the conflict started, we have negotiated, renegotiated all of our contracts, adjusted formulas, surcharges wi th NOCs, IOCs. There was a big job of the team in the last six months to adjust this to a new cost reality, which we will see in the quarters to come. Obviously, new offers in the new marketplace for new business, prices have been repositioned with a different level of margins than we used to have. We see a positive pricing dynamics kicking in towards the end of this year and to 2023 in international markets.
In currency, you know, there are big changes, but in the end, some of the change in the euro, our sales are mostly in dollar, and some of the production system is, let's say, working at a different exchange rate. So this is also supporting, compensating to some extent price of energy. You know, we are containing this.
Thank you.
Hello. Alejandro Demichelis from Nau Securities. Paolo, you explained very well the whole journey that Tenaris has done from a couple of production facilities into a much more integrated company with a lot bigger coverage and so on.
In the future, what is that you think that Tenaris needs to address all of those things that you were talking about, you know, the energy transition, the growth still in oil and gas? Probably from there, how is that you think you are going to do that? Are we going to see more M&A? Are we going to see more kind of organic investment, building new plants and that kind of stuff?
I think as I was saying before, the level of uncertainty in some of the basic aspect in the energy in the geopolitical visa is so high that, let's say, it's not easy today to anticipate the direction we're going. I expect, for instance, next year to have higher volume if condition remain or goes high, and basically flat margin or margin in this sense. I think we should be able to preserve it. It depends, for instance, from also where the growth or the increase in investment by E&P occur.
If this is occurring in area in which we have a very strong position. South America, or in the United States, or in the Middle East, this will to some extent drive the level of operation of Tenaris in 2023. When I think about the, let's say, the strategy, for sure we need to increase diversification into energy transition related product. You have seen in the movie the big cylinder.
These are clearly component that are in increasing demand, but still we do not see that this is a very meaningful driver in the next one, two year for our assets. This will be relevant over time. We need to have a view, position, product development, and focus on everything that move on that side.
Because as you can see, even if oil and gas will continue, but renewable and the drive for this will continue. We have differentiation on that side. We will have to wait and see the new equilibrium that will be forming in Europe, in North America, in South America, and in the Middle East to understand which is the future position of Tenaris that may drive us to a next level of growth.
In terms of energy transition, you've been doing a lot of work, I believe, as you've mentioned in previous calls, in terms of hydrogen. I mean, you've got your renewables project in Argentina. What are the results you're seeing, particularly in hydrogen, and where do you think that will be over the next two, three, four, five years? Similar with renewables, can you expand beyond Argentina into other locations, or could you expand further in Argentina and use that as an offset to some other factors?
Well, I think we need to prepare the product, the tools, but it's not easy to see the pace of growth of this. Because today, Europe is exposed to an extreme stress. I mean, the energy dependency from the Russian system is collapsing, and the way out from this implies a new commitment to gas, a new commitment to renewable, and the hydrogen chain may take a role.
But I don't think we can today reasonably have, let's say, a line of growth of this chain. In the United States, this will move with the IRA, but I think will move relatively slowly. The first things that will happen will be, let's say, increased investment in carbon capture and traditional renewable transformation of the markets.
I don't think that we will see a very fast movement in the hydrogen chain, for instance. We need to be prepared. The world is difficult, I'll say. We don't have a sound prediction on the speed of penetration of this. We follow many projects, some are large, but we cannot tell you in five years which could be the size of the product that could be driven by carbon capture and storage or hydrogen. I wouldn't make a forecast today for us.
Thanks. I wanted to ask about Benteler. It's going through another round of review. What gives you confidence that you know you're gonna be able to close the deal?
Look, Benteler is in the whole, let's say, ecosystem of the U.S. production a very tiny portion of the market. We do believe that although we have a significant position in the space, I mean, the 200 because today Benteler is producing less than 200,000 tons. 200,000 tons more or less on one side or the other is not gonna change anything compared to our position in the market. There are some products, like I was saying before, mechanical, we are selling in the U.S. little, and this will give us an opportunity to increase, but certainly there is no, let's say, problem in that sense.
Even on the small OD, small size line pipe, we are not even present domestically. When you look at the overall, this is something that obviously requires some scrutiny from the antitrust authority, but we don't see a reason why this should not go forward. Now it's a matter of working and providing all the information for them to assess, but we remain confident that this will go through.
Two other questions related to that opportunity. One, my understanding is that they don't have a lot of finishing capacity. How are you planning on h andling that, is there an investment that you'll be making for them for finishing, or do you just pull that into your system and do it there? Then I believe they also have permits for steelmaking.
Yeah.
How are you thinking about that investment and what it could entail?
Look, let's take one by one. Yes, it is true. They don't have a finishing capacity. They have zero finishing capacity over there. The way we're gonna be thinking about this is to first of all, we're gonna grow the rolling capacity, if we can get a hold of the asset.
While growing the production capacity, we're gonna be feeding a portion through our system. We still have some capacity in our, let's say, heat treatment and finishing in here in the South of the United States. This can be used to finish that one. For a portion, we're gonna be using a third party the same way that they are using.
On the steel shop, obviously, I made a reference to the steel shop in my presentation talking about Koppel, but it's obvious that with the asymmetry in, for example, cost of energy that we see, for us to be able to have different bases in different countries, it provides us a lot of flexibility. Even if we have a big source of potential supply in Mexico is very busy with the domestic market and with the international market.
For us to have the possibility of an accelerated, let's say, path to have a new position in steel making in the United States is certainly something that we are considering. We are looking at it, and it is a nice feature that is attached to this deal.
Is that something that would cost a few hundred million dollars? Or what. Just give us, if you can, a sense of how big of an investment that would be to
Look, I gonna-
to the steel shop.
I'm gonna hand it over to my boss. As far as I'm concerned.
No. No.
We are still in the early evaluation. As far as I'm concerned, for us, to talk about figures today is something that it's a little bit premature. Maybe he knows better. I'm sure.
Well, I mean, different consideration for the steel shop. Remember, one of the point, Tenaris' financial structure involve a very substantial investment inventory and receivable. No? We have something like $5 billion-
$5 billion.
In investment and receivable. Part of this is due to the structure of the supply chain and the movement of material from one side to the other. There is also something that we need to take into consideration here. In a volatile world, reducing lead time is essential. It's essential for saving capital. It's essential also for reacting faster to the change in demand.
Steel is important. We have today five steel making facility. I think that another facility in the United States will be very logical. To some extent, we will be paying this also with a reduction in the lead time. Reduction in lead time is one of our concern today because the world is unpredictable and there is a lot of capital in this. You should also consider this.
There is also one concern, one aspect that is decarbonization. We may imagine, if we build a new steel shop, to overall improve our overall equation because we will use the most new technique for this that may allow us to advance faster in our target of CO2 emission.
Paolo?
Yeah.
Hi. Sebastian Gurmendi from Crédit Agricole. Maybe this question is for Luca. If the market share in the U.S. keeps growing, how will this affect the trade case litigations in the U.S.?
Well, technically, the trade case litigation is not linked to any market share threshold. It is linked, in the end, this all boils down to the fact that, whether or not, subject imports, so in our case, basically Mexico and Argentina, did injure or are threatening to injure the domestic industry.
Now, the common sense logic will just tell you that, thinking of a threat, an injury or a threat or injury in a situation in which the PipeLogix has increased 200%, common logic will tell you that there is no case. We believe that, independently of the market share that we have and we may have, we have a strong case.
There is no reason why anybody could find injury in the current conditions and we believe that we're gonna be successful. Now, obviously, common sense sometimes is not fully aligned with trade law, and so we may have also another, let's say, results. Here, I would like to, I don't know, hand it over to Germán Curá that is helping a lot in this process as well.
Thank you, Luca. Good morning, Sebastian. Good to see you after quite some time. Very briefly, we continue to say that the case is baseless. Tenaris is the largest domestic producer. Tenaris has a long track record of, in fact, being a very active petitioner. We have been in the front row of litigation against the imports from China, Korea, and others, over the last 15 years.
The whole idea of any company investing over $11 billion in the market in the last 15 years, being subject to import quotas as Argentina is, and to an extent also Mexico is, injury or threatening of injury, that particular market from our perspective makes really no sense. We still gonna need to wait for the final vote of the ITC October 26, and we'll get to know the details of whatever way that vote goes by early November. We remain confident about the result. Thanks.
Yeah.
Yeah. Just coming back to what you mentioned about the working capital and the $5 billion, and so on. With all that uncertainty in the market, how much of that, those $5 billion do you think you could come back to the balance sheet or release from the balance sheet over the next, say, 12 months or 18 months, something like that. How much would be more structural you have to keep that?
Well, it will depend. Now the working capital build up because we expect volume to increase in the fourth quarter and to some extent to increase again in 2023. When volume stabilize, we will get a substantial reduction in the working capital inventories. We will maintain high level of receivable because in the end, the receivable will go with relation to the revenue.
We expect that, let's say, we will see release of cash flow on a substantial volume going on into the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2023. I wouldn't give a number because we have to also understand how the price and demand will evolve. There will be a clear release there.
I don't know, Alicia, if you want to add on the action that may contribute to this. I was mentioning that in our inventory there is also the impact of steel for the pipeline, the, in the cost including the duty, you know.
Yeah, sure. Thank you, Paolo. Good morning, everyone. Yes, we are estimating that we will still constructing working capital in the fourth quarter, but less amount than in the third quarter. Also, we have the impact of the duty that we are paying now. So we're estimating that we're starting release working capital through the first semester of or the fourth quarter of 2023.
If I could follow up on your comments on the European energy situation, and just to see. You know, obviously, things are extraordinarily tight right now and the alternative supplies are low, even though the options are limited. That doesn't seem like that's going to improve very quickly. And in fact, it might worsen potentially, depending on how much gas stocks can be built up next year. How do you deal with that? How, you know, how do you see that developing over the next 2023, 2024?
No, I think it's clear. I agree with you that this is, let's say, Europe will not recover supply of gas from Russia. They will be stressing all the other different sources. They will be increasing regasification capability. They are using what they have, including coal, as you know very well. Germany will do this. Still this winter, the stocks of gas are reaching a very comfortable level. Most will depend on the temperature of the Northern Hemisphere in this winter.
Because with the storage, a very high level and the supply of gas from, Algeria, Norway, to some extent, what is coming still, from, Azerbaijan and so, and the regasification capability, Europe could weather the storm this winter if the weather remain, let's say, is not an extraordinarily cold winter. There will be a problem in replenishing the storage by next year, and I agree that this is a crisis, one that will develop in long term.
There are no easy fix for this. Not in renewable, there is obviously not solving the issue. There is a strong drive by the European government in promoting LNG project that could be tied to increase support of LNG to the different regasification system. You know very well, North Sea opportunity.
Who knows in Italy if something will move on this side, the pipelines or movement of gas from Spain and to this. I mean, these are the component or the tool that the European Union could put in action during 2023. I expect the government to continue to contain the impact on consumer and companies as they are doing today.
In this moment, Germany, Italy and the other country are supporting the companies and the consumer for the excess cost of energy. This is a complex equation of interest rate, public financing this expenditure and so on, but this is what we see today. There is high level of uncertainty on this. We will be prepared for some rationing.
I mean, we are factoring in our scenario of crisis, the idea that we may have a partial rationing that may force us to slow down production in the steel shop. Because this is something that could happen, and we are designing, let's say, mitigating action for this. Now, in the medium term, I think the price of LNG will remain high because Europe will continue to have traction on it.
Now, it may have a relevance, the situation in China. If the level of economic activity in China or the weather or so go down, is it possible that Europe could be receiving gas at a price, let's say, still acceptable to some extent. This is the scenario that we.
Everybody in Europe has a high level of uncertainty. It is what they need. What we know is that the project in energy in Qatar, to some extent also in U.S., in other part of the world, are receiving some support from this. It will take time, no, for them.
If I could do one more, then perhaps in Argentina the potential of course remains great, and it seems finally there's some movement on infrastructure. How far can this go? Because the potential is so much greater than what's even being planned now. I mean, there's talk of you know LNG facilities there as well. Is that very practical or possible, do you think, given financing issues, or do you think those can be resolved?
No, well, I think the reason or the only issue that in this moment have support from the different political parties in Argentina is development of Vaca Muerta. On the other issue, there is strong differences, but on this, there is bipartisan consensus.
Now, bipartisan consensus is not enough, but also the willingness by Europe, the Export Credit Agency, some of the strong company to move on this ground may, let's say, may make feasible project like this. I think any project will take time. This is not something that may happen. I mean, investment could happen now, but fruition of additional things, additional LNG will anyway require period of time, no less than four year in most positive things.
It would be an important sign for the future of Argentina. The pipeline, the evacuation of Vaca Muerta and the value added for gas has the potential of transforming the structure of the countries and adding one very important engine to economic growth.
I think this is where we are. For us, it is important because we are very, let's say, in any aspect of this value chain, we have interest from the fracking in Vaca Muerta, on which Tenaris is operating very positively, to the drilling of Vaca Muerta, to the establishment of a minor pipeline to move gas to the plant of treatment and so on, to the pipelines, to the installation for LNG. It's very good for Tenaris. It may contribute to the equation of LNG slowly. With time, but it's feasible. The bipartisan consensus is important.
Thanks. I think you mentioned earlier about considering the dividend in November or the board is going to consider it. Could you just, I mean, I know it's ultimately a board decision, but you have some influence over that. Could you talk to maybe the thought process or what the recommendation might be to the board? Anything that we could rule out, perhaps share repurchase is off the table, but a special dividend is a consideration. Just how are you thinking about the different choices you have?
Well, we have no tradition of share buyback in Tenaris. The board will follow which has been the criteria that has been applied in the past, I may imagine. They are very well aware that Tenaris had a very positive development. That the position from a point of view of competitive environment is very strong, and that the perspective is very positive. They have this very well in mind, and I'm sure they will take this into consideration at the moment of deciding the dividend.
Whatever gets decided, is the thought that it's communicated to the market around that time, or do we wait till May to find out what's gonna happen?
We will follow the traditional. I imagine the board will follow the traditional way, which is to think in terms of ramping up with pace, deciding on the pace of ramp-up, taking a decision at the moment of advance payment of the dividend, and then a second decision in the moment of closing. Also the world is suggesting this, because in the end, we don't know how things are moving.
I think there will be. I mean, this will be the approach. The approach based on pace of dividend increase that is compatible with what we see in the position of Tenaris. From my point of view, in this moment, our position is very positive. Yeah.
Hi, Grant Hynes with JP Morgan. You highlighted in your deck 2022 full year OCTG demand expectations. What sort of are your expectations on the supply side of the equation?
Can you say again on this?
Yeah.
For which scope you mean?
For 2022, OCTG demand expectations, sort of the relative growth.
Focus on OCTG.
Yeah.
Not entire product.
Yeah. Growth in OCTG supply. The supply side.
Well, the supply, you know very well. Supply environment, the competitive environment is changing, and you have all the information that we have about how it's made. It's not only the fact that the Russian producer are basically out of the market, up to a point. I mean, they are probably still operating in some specific niche, but I think we do not see them.
No.
Anymore, even in Middle East.
They lost the API. Yeah.
This is important. It is not irrelevant, because in the end, it is contributing to the entire equation. On the other side, you see some of our competitor, some has taken decision, like in Japan, of closing, part of the facility, like welded facility for Nippon Steel. Vallourec is also taking decision on the side on this part, because of the condition of operation and their, let's say, strategic view of this. This is also, part of the competitive environment.
In the United States, as Luca was saying, we do not see a very aggressive dynamic by the producers of welded pipe in spite of the fact that today, like, probably one year ago, the conditions were relatively positive because the spread between hot rolled coils and the PipeLogix is being substantial now. Not now, it's been substantial for a while.
It's our argument also with the Department of Commerce for the antitrust. The other established players are basically pursuing, let's say, the existing business. I think that this from a competitive point of view we have, let's say, a space in which we can be very active on additional demand in the different scenario. Now, in some, like offshore, we really are.
In some situation, we are the only player today that can assure reliable supply of very complex product from a solid supply chain. Solid means that could not be disrupted suddenly by changes in the geopolitics or in the basic aspect of the supply chain, like gas or energy or so. In this sense, I think Tenaris has a strong position and great opportunity here.
You all, we all see price of oil is important because to some extent today the oil company needs to invest their cash flow, are not receiving, let's say, a lot of resources from outside. The price of oil is important in this sense. For sure in gas, the price is extraordinarily high. Yeah.
Hi. Zen L. from LS Power. Just wanted to follow up on that question, especially as we go into 2023 on OCTG demand. Given that growth that you guys were projecting, if the producers are trying to procure supply for next year, are you basically sold out or are you able to provide everyone what they need and have some, you know, excess in the system, if you will?
We have room for, let's say, following additional demand, depending from the segment and depending from the, let's say, the region to some extent. It is true that we have been also investing them internally. We had an important investment in maintenance this year. I think we are investing in the range of $200 million in maintenance of facility to increase the level of reliability and the level of utilization. We're doing important ramp-up in the United States. That is, as Luca was saying, we had record in one of our major plant in United States, absolute record now. Some of the facility had ramp up the last one year.
Yeah. We actually.
There is space for growing here, no?
We started the ramp-up in October 2020. The real thing is that it's not easy for the followers to put in a lot of capacity because, I mean, the ramp-up that we did started in October 2020, and we still didn't finish. It takes time to go back.
Now, obviously, we are well-placed, well-positioned compared to the competitors because we started earlier. But it's gonna take time. Yes, we have some treatment that today is very constrained in the United States that is gonna come online beginning of 2023. We have some, let's say, possibility of even increasing the
We're being also limited by the availability of manpower.
Oh, yeah.
One of the big bottlenecks or constraints has been this. In general, we have room for expanding our operation. It's not unlimited, but we have it. In the competitive environment, I would say is in this moment favorable to Tenaris, because also, as I was saying.
Even China today is exporting to its area of influence, let's say. It's not easy for a big oil company or even for an oil company with a program of development to rely on China because the uncertainty and the stress in the relations between U.S. and China are also something that the companies are factoring in, are considering.
Because if there is anything that raises the level of, let's say, the transition from cooperation to competition to confrontation. If we go in this direction, then it may be difficult to continue to have reliable supply from a robust supply cha
in. This is also a factor that is, let's say, part of the competitive environment. One hour. I think we can close here. Giovanni, we are having lunch here, no? We can pick up, no? Everybody could pick up things here. Thank you very much. Thank you for coming. Thank you. Thank you, gentlemen.