Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the First Quarter twenty twenty one Tenaris F. A. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode.
Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, speaker Giovanni Sardagna, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Nora, and welcome to Tenaris twenty twenty one First Quarter Conference Call. Before we start, I would like to remind you that we will be discussing forward looking information in this call and that our actual results may vary from those expressed or implied during this conference call. With me on the call today are Paulo Rocca, our Chairman and CEO Alicia Mondolo, our Chief Financial Officer Guillermo Vogel, Vice Chairman and member of our Board of Directors German Cura, Vice Chairman and Member of our Board of Directors Gabriel Potkuska, President of our Eastern Hemisphere Operations and Luca Zanotti, President of our U. S. Operations.
Before passing over the call to Paolo for his opening remarks, I would like to briefly comment our quarterly results. Our sales in the first quarter reached $1,200,000,000 down 33% compared to those of the previous year, but up 5% sequentially mainly driven by a recovery in sales in North America partially offset by lower sales in the Eastern Hemisphere. Average selling prices in our Tubes operating segment declined 4% compared to the corresponding quarter of 2020 and five percent sequentially mainly due to a poorer geographic sales mix. Our EBITDA for the quarter which included $23,000,000 of additional cost associated to the winter storm in Texas was up 2% sequentially to $196,000,000 reflecting continued improvement in our industrial performance. Our EBITDA margin was stable at around 17%.
Our quarterly net income of $106,000,000 benefited from a strong contribution from our investment in Pernium. During the quarter working capital increased by $83,000,000 mainly due to higher inventories which reflect the increased level of activity. With operating cash flow of $70,000,000 and capital expenditures of $45,000,000 our free cash flow amounted to 25,000,000 Our positive financial position remained flat during the quarter at around $1,100,000,000 Now I will ask Paolo to say a few words before we open the call to questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Giovanni, and good morning to all of you. Our first quarter results show the progress we are making with our repositioning in The U. S. Market despite the impact of the tax freeze, which affected production volume as well as cost. Drilling activity has been increasing steadily through the first part of the year, though it remained significantly below pre pandemic levels and is supported by current oil and gas price levels and operator cash flow.
Pipe inventory are returning to more normal level. Pipe prices are on an upward trend, reflecting increased demand and raw material cost. With hot rolled coil prices making weather pipe production uncompetitive at current price levels, there is an opportunity for Tenaris to strengthen its position in the market and expand its range of customers. This opportunity is reinforced by the ongoing consolidation in the shale sector, where our customer has offered us the opportunity to extend our service to their newly acquired operations. As a result, we continue to advance our Rig Direct service model as the preferred way of working among many operators and consolidate our offer of Tenaris hydrogel wedge product and production phasing application, while we are expanding our service to reach smaller operators.
In The U. S, we will fully deploy our unique idata capability as we ramp up our Bay City mill to its full capacity, reopen our cornrow plant and start up the copper steel shop operation and Enbridge seamless pipe mill together with research associated finishing facilities. We will incorporate 1,000 employees into our U. S. Operation this year.
We are also structuring our position in The Middle East. After our success in the ADNOC tender in 2019, we are well positioned in the recent Kuwait deep drilling tender to take a majority share of the tender volume. This will be a three year agreement with deliveries expected to begin in 2022. Considering this another long term agreement that we have been awarded, we are building a substantial backlog of order expected to exceed $3,000,000,000 which will be should support a significant increase in sales in the region from 2022. We continue to consolidate our positioning in growing offshore regions such as Brazil, the Guyana Suriname Basin and the Black Sea, extending customer adoption of our specialized range of products.
We have just been awarded a €100,000,000 contract for the supply of pipes for an offshore pipeline in the Black Sea based on deliveries from our plant in Darmine around the end of the In an industry which is increasingly turning its attention to the energy transition, we are accompanying our customer as they develop low carbon energy businesses. Over the past quarter, we were awarded a contract for the supply of pipes for the offshore pipeline to be built in Norway for the Northern Light Carbon Transportation Storage project with deliveries expected next year. We were also awarded a five year agreement for the supply of storage vessels for the network of hydrogen filling station that Shell is rolling out in California. Our research and product development teams are working with customer and industry experts to explore specific requirements and develop new products to support these nation's sectors.
As our sales and margin recover following the pandemic, we are focused on supporting the expansion with new digital tools aimed at reducing the lead time and inventory required
to support our redirect operation and strengthening operation with our customers, optimizing the programming of our industrial systems and supply chain management operations. Even if the pandemic is subsiding in some regions, many of our operations are in countries where the impact of the pandemic is still at critical level. It is essential that we maintain our discipline to protect the health, safety and well-being of our employees and secure our operations as well as our support for our communities. Following our announcement last quarter of our 2,030 carbon intensity reduction targets, we are looking closely at our agenda for the decarbonization of our operations. We are advancing with an investment that will reduce the carbon footprint and improve efficiency for larger amateur pipes in our Dalmina mill in Italy.
We welcome the fact that our customers are starting to look more closely at our environmental performance as we believe that we have a competitive advantage here. We are aware that this will be a critical area for our competitiveness in the coming years. And we will use our solid financial position to strengthen our differentiation. To have a more complete picture of what we are doing, it is interesting to read the sustainability report that we published last month. We are open now to receive any question you may have.
If you have a question at this time, please press the star and then the number one key on your touch tone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press the pound key. Just a reminder Your first question comes from the line of Ian Macpherson with Simmons. Your line is open.
Thank you. Paolo, I was interested to hear about your bidding on the Kuwait tender, a three year contract starting next year. How would you characterize the volume and the mix of that tender relative to your current business? Because I look at your Middle East Region revenues, in 2019 and 2020, they were 1,200,000,000.0 to $1,300,000,000 of revenues per year, and you're obviously down very significantly this year. But as we expect the OPEC region to reopen, it sounds like you're also taking share.
And I wanted to see how your expectations for the revenue level in that region could progress next year as you take on that contract in addition to your existing business.
Well, thank you, Jan. You're right. The our Middle East sales down this quarter, they will recover, and they will recover, I would say, much more in 2022, but I will ask Gabriel Pozkowska to give a view of the business in Middle East and specifically of the tendering weight, this very substantial tendering.
Thank you, Paulo. Good morning, Ian. In fact, as you were pointing out, quarter in the Middle East and Africa segment was particularly low. We had some end of pipelines and coating projects in Saudi and West Africa and also some seasonal lower OCTG shipment into Qatar and Iraq. From the activity point of view, the international rig count has bottomed at a level of around 38% versus pre pandemic levels.
And from this low point, we expect a gradual ramp up of activity during 2021 and as you were pointing out during your question lead to be led by the OPEC countries. So our sales will partially recover in the upcoming two quarters as we resume shipments in Qatar and Iraq while we phase out the previous Kuwait contract. Now going in particular to the award, I take the opportunity to congratulate our team in The Middle East who has done an outstanding job in positioning Tenaris for this important award in Kuwait. The contract will be slightly above $600,000,000 representing about 65% share in KOCs tubular needs for the deep drilling segment. Deep drilling is a critical area for the country to meet its gas production targets.
It's a very demanding drilling conditions, deep wells, environment is sour, HPHT, so all factors contributing to a high end product mix. Okay, the contract will last probably three to three point five years starting as Paolo mentioned early twenty twenty two. So this compounded with the ADNOC award and other LTAs, this will substantially increase our level of shipments into 2022 and onwards.
That's very helpful. Thank you for that detail. Now I also wanted to ask, it's good to see that the business is expanding. You say you're hiring 1,000 people over the course of this year. It's been we've had such extreme cyclicality recently.
You're just finishing the restructuring expenses from the past year plus. So are there going to be any incremental start up expenses that we should think about associated with this the hiring and the reactivation of capacity that would be separate from your 20% EBITDA objective for the third quarter?
Well, you are right. We will we are now ramping up our operation in The U. S. To respond to the increasing demand. This will lead to a significant increase in our sales in the second Q and in the third Q following the increase in demand.
We are in this start up, we are incurring in cost of this. But I mean we are when we are, let's say, mentioning or guiding the level of EBITDA margin, we are considering this included into it because in the end, some of this expenditure is related to facility that are operating now like in the case of Bay City. So in this facility, we are hiring people. We raised level of operation in Bay City or in McCarty or in Hickman. And we cannot consider this substantial additional expenditure.
Some additional expenditure will be required by the couple and average of the new mills that we really are starting from idle. But I think we are considering this in our forecast. Increase in volume and in revenue will be important. And this to support and to respond to this increase in volume, it is important that we execute very effectively and efficiently this startup for this operation.
Understood. Thank you, Paolo.
Your next question comes from the line of Marc Bianchi with Cowen. Your line is open.
Thank you. So it sounds like second quarter, third quarter, the volume and sales will be pretty strong for North America. I was curious if you could perhaps quantify the expectation overall for maybe volume and ASP in second quarter, third quarter. I'm sure there's some uncertainty, but maybe if you could give us a little bit of a guide there, it would be helpful.
Well, as I would say, our results in the coming quarter will be characterized, will be marked by a significant increase in volume mainly in The U. S. And North America,
while
the activity in The Middle East will recover, but slightly on this. This is implying that our mix in terms of sales will be affected more by the increase in the sales in The U. S. Now in The U. S, also prices will be increasing and more than offset the increase that we have in the cost.
So going on, the increase in sales will be significant. And we expect that we are able to raise gradually our EBITDA margin over time. But the mix between sales in the North America that has basically a lower price per ton and a more relatively more simple mix compared to the rest of this will be, let's say, containing in the increase in our overall average price per ton.
Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you. So the target is to be around 20% for third quarter. I know there's some moving parts in terms of your inventory of perhaps scrap and other metal costs that are perhaps below where the leading edge market prices are.
I'm curious how you see things evolving beyond third quarter just between everything we've seen in the pricing and Pipe Logics and the type market that you mentioned and then also on the raw material side?
Well, as I say, we expect the increase in price as you see in the Pipe Logix, to offset what we see as the increase in our raw material costs. I'm not referring to the hot rolled coil that really is increasing very, very much, but I'm referring to the cost of scrap or iron ore. Now this increase in price and decrease in Pipe Logix is translating into an increase in our sales price only gradually because we have contracted Our Rig Direct business model is basically based on contract and agreement with clients that has some kind of delays, some reference to formula that are not synchronized. So the increase in price is getting into our sales gradually, but it's getting there. So this is what we expect.
And when the increase in the volume, as I say, will be significant, you can imagine how things will evolve. The EBITDA will reflect this mix between The U. S. And the rest of the world or more complex mix in the other region.
Your next question comes from the line of Igor Levi with BTIG. Your line is open.
Hey, guys. So your raw material the raw material costs have risen quite high at this point, but your cost of goods sold surprisingly continue per ton. They continue to go down even this quarter. So could you talk about how you're able to drive that cost decrease on a per ton basis? And what raw material costs are currently embedded in your inventory?
Are they basically marked to where the market is right now?
Well, thank you, Igor. Our cost to the raw material is getting into our cost goods sold only gradually because for IFRS, will see the full impact of the increase of the cost that we have today only, let's say, in basically in the third and fourth quarter. I mean, it is getting into our cost of goods sold only gradual. That's the reason why I'm saying the price increase will more than offset in absolute terms this increasing cost, clearly. But we will see the cost increasing only gradually.
The effect, as I say, will be embedded in the cost of goods sold mainly in 3Q and 4Q.
Great. Thank you. And so
well, there is one concept, the absorption in an environment in which we are raising strongly and fast our level of production. Also the absorption is contributing to a containment of our cost of goods sold. Also, have you noticed that our depreciation went down from the fourth quarter into the first quarter? Because in the last February, we had anticipated depreciation for Canada and for mills in The United States in an amount of around $40,000,000 This is no longer affecting our depreciation. So you see in containment of the cost of goods sold also the impact of absorption due to a much higher level of production.
Great. Thank you for the color on that. And then on the energy transition theme, it was great to hear that you're participating on a carbon capture and hydrogen projects already. Would you
be able to comment on
the type of spec of pipe that is required for those applications? And how does the margin on those on that type of work compare to what you're earning on your oil and gas business?
Well, in the specific case of the Northern Light, I mean, these are product, complex product. But, I mean, the margins are not very different from the margin that we have on complex offshore pipeline in this case. The full range of product that goes into hydrogen development and carbon capture and sequestration is, let's say, a complex set of product to face the challenges of hydrogen and CO2. But in the case of Northern Light, let's say, the margin that we expect is similar to the margin of NOVA complex pipelines offshore. The issue here is embrittlement in the case of H2 hydrogen and corrosion in the case of CO2, products that should resist embrittlement and corrosion are products on which we have a clear differentiation.
For instance, in our cylinder for hydrogen, clearly we have a much higher margin. But when we talk about light pipeline, Northern Light, you can compare these margins to complex pipeline.
Great. Very helpful. I'll turn it back.
Your next question comes from the line of Konar Linnan with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Yes. Thank you. You were alluding to this dynamic somewhat in your prepared remarks, but just wanted to get some incremental color on this. This. So when we look at the price of seamless pipe versus welded pipe there, at least per the data we track about as close as they've ever been, certainly, I think you alluded to that leading to some market share opportunities for you.
But is there a pricing tailwind from the lower grade products pushing on the higher grade products? How should we think about that?
Sorry. I didn't get the first answer. You are asking for the can you repeat the last part of the question? Well
Yeah. Basically, is is the is the pricing, momentum in welded, which seems to be, more significant than that on seamless. Is there a delayed follow through we should expect from that? Or do or should we think about it as more of just driving incremental market share for your seamless production?
Yes, you are perfectly right. If you look at the Pipe Logix, the welded pipe increased since the bottom point by 45% in the case of welded, 32% in the case of seamless. The increase in welded is reflecting the increase in hot rolled coil. Now this is giving us an opportunity to advance and gaining market share in some clients that are shifting from welded to seamless because of the price pressure they are facing in the weld. So this is an opportunity for gaining market share in clients, but it's also a stimulus to, let's say, increasing prices in general.
As I was saying, you see this getting into our sales over time following the time of the formulas that are embedded in our contract with a different client. But you are right, it's an opportunity for us, we mentioned it in the opening remark, because it might be with something that is changing, especially in North America, in The U. S. And in Canada, it's changing the competitive lens. But this is also true for some pipeline, the rest of the region where there are alternative between seamless and welded, the increased cost of welded worldwide of hot rolled coils and plates worldwide, leaves some room for, our large diameter seamless mean, especially from Italy.
Got it. That's that's helpful context. I I was wondering if we could maybe just return to this pricing versus cost dynamic. It sounds like, basically, the pricing that you already sort of expect to receive based on your contracts is getting you already to that 20% mark. I guess the question is if we were to mark raw materials to market sort of where things are today, do you need to realize further price increases in the Pipe Logix or whatever marker you have out there in order to get to that 20%?
Or is the 20% guidance based on what you already know you're going to receive on pricing? I hope that makes sense, but let me know if not.
No. The guidance we are giving on 20% related to an environment of increased volume and sales and a increase in our sales reflecting the price increase that has been basically in the market today. There will be additional increase in my view in the Pipe Logix. But when we are guiding the 20%, we are basically guiding on the price increase that's happened until today and some marginal increase that we may expect. And on a substantial stability in pricing spot of our raw material, but that will reflect in our cost of sale gradually, as I was saying, during the third marginally in the second quarter and more, substantially in the third and fourth q.
These are the premises on which basis we are guiding. Now in my view, if the risk count continue to raise over time and the price of controlled coil remain at the level of the present level or even lower, there will be room for additional increase in the price and the Pipe Logix. This is what we expect.
Got it. That's helpful. Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Alessandro Pozzi with Nuevo Banco. Your line is open.
Hi, there. Small, medium, but that's okay. The I was wondering, your guidance for 20% is Q3 rather than, Q2. I was wondering, what was the main reason for the shift? I know it's just a quarter, but, I was wondering what is the main reason behind the shift in marginality in Q from Q2 to Q3.
Also, you mentioned much higher volumes in North America, but at the same time, I think the rig count is slowing down a little bit in the rate of growth. So I was wondering, should we look at I mean, is there what type of lag in months is between the rig count and the volumes in North America? Thank
Thank you. You, Alexander. I think I would ask Luca to give some color on how we perceive things going on in North America. And this is, let's say, the area in which we expect the larger expansion in our volume of sale for the coming quarter. Luca?
Yes. Thanks, Paulo. Good morning, Alessandro. No, yes, I mean, our forecast are based, as you know, I mean, the great majority of our contracts are linked with direct and so to long term contracts. And what we see as a growth is linked to the forecast that our customers are giving us in the short term.
So what you see in the next quarter and most likely in the following is volume that we're pretty sure we can materialize. Now if the rig count would increase more, which it is what I believe, we expect this to keep on increasing, we may have some upsides there. However, as Paolo already mentioned, you're going to see a significant increase of volume from Q1 to the last quarter of the last year, from Q2 to Q1 and also from Q3 to Q2. As far as the prices are concerned, going back to what Paolo was saying, we believe that in the end, also considering that the inventory on the ground has broken six months mark according to our expectation, we should see Pipe Logix to continue go up even because there is still a very low spread between the seamless and the real value. And this will be an upside to our forecast.
Thank you. And on the shift of guidance from Q2 to Q3?
Sorry? Can you say it again, Sami?
The reason why when I mean, we perceive that during Q2, we will see, let's say, a gradual increase, I was saying, of our sales price, strong increase in our volume. But we gave a reference that we consider a more, let's say, indicating a medium term trend. But we will see part of this in the second quarter.
Okay. And just a final one. Do you have any indication of what the EBITDA could be in Q2?
Well, we are moving among I mean, in an environment of the increased sales, the EBITDA will increase in absolute term. But in terms of margin, if we exclude the Texas Freeze, EBITDA of the first quarter is in the range of 19%. It will in term of margin increase gradually. In absolute terms, will increase.
Okay. Is there going to be any other one offs in Q2?
Well, for the moment, we have no no indication of nothing similar to the Texas fees that has been very substantial. I think unless there is something related to the pandemic or some disruption that could come from the sourcing in countries that are more exposed, we do not see particular issue that could affect one off this quarter.
Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Amy Wong with UBS. Your line is open.
Good afternoon. I have a couple of questions, please. One focused on the short term and then one on the longer term. In the short term, I'm thinking about, your comments about Eastern Hemisphere recovering in the second half, but you also typically have a third quarter seasonal decline in your volumes. So how do we think about the dynamic of the recovery and the cyclical decline to what should we be expecting in volumes in your particular as we move from 2Q to 3Q?
That's the short term question. On the longer term, just want to go back to your announcement a couple of months ago about reducing your carbon emission intensity by 30% by 02/1930. Can you quantify the sort of investments or, that you may need to make in terms of your plants and equipment and to achieve that kind of, CO2 two emission reduction?
Yeah. Well, in the first question, we project an increase in volume in the second q and the third q in both of them, independently from the seasonal that is affecting mainly Europe. But the mix will reflect a strong increase in North America, increase also in Europe, in all of the, let's say, the components that we are selling to nonenergy segment, industrial and segment related to automotive that will also increase and slightly less from Eastern Hemisphere. That's the reason why the increase in our overall price of sale will reflect the change in mix that is containing this increase. In terms of carbon reduction, as you know, we committed a 30% reduction in our CO2 emission.
We expect to invest in the range of €150,000,000 in the next four years to achieve the target. Part of this investment will be realized this year, particularly in Italy, we are investing during the course of this year. But, I mean, this 150,000,000 should be distributed along this period of time. This is our program today. We are continually exploring opportunities for, let's say, for adding additional program or project that could reduce our carbon footprint.
But this is what we have in hand concretely for the time being.
Okay. Thanks for that. To follow-up on that, so the $1.50 is a is an investment to to achieve that change. What about operating costs when we think when we kind of move out to that point? Will the cost per ton be substantially different?
Or how do we think about that?
No. I think that this the program that we have are a program of investment that are justified by the economics of the existing condition today. What I mean is if there is a change, for instance, in the price of carbon in some of the region in which we operate, then we will have to consider additional program based on different economics. This program has returned in the condition in existing today condition.
Okay. Thank you very much. I'll turn it over.
Your next question comes from the line of Vlad Sergievskiy with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Thank you, gentlemen. A couple of questions. If I may try to clarify your volume and pricing outlook in the near term. So on shipment, I mean, the last two quarters, you grew shipments by about 10% every quarter. When you are alluding to strong growth in the next two quarters, does it mean that growth will be higher than those 10%?
And if you could perhaps give us the range of the growth, that would be very helpful. And then on the realized price, understand
there is
a trend of less favorable mix, but higher sales prices overall. Would it be fair to assume that the realized prices for the year actually bottoming in Q1? Or it's too early to say? Well,
on increasing volume, I would say significant. Significantly higher than 10% in the two quarters. And I think this is where we see the result of increase in the market in North America and increasing our market share. As far as the prices, if I understand well your question, as I say, increase in the Pipe Logix as a reference will get into our sale price with some delay because of the nature of the indirect agreement with a different client, but we'll get there. And we expect Pipe Logix also to continue to increase in the coming months.
In our forecast, are not considering this additional increase substantial, but, we consider that it will happen.
That's great. Thank you, Paulo. And if I can squeeze a longer term question. In the last year and during this year, OCTG market globally has kept some clear consolidation trend. It happens among distributors in The US and among among producers in the Eastern Hemisphere.
Do you see the scope for any further meaningful consolidation in OCTG globally? And if yes, then is TENARIS still willing to become a consolidator, if I may ask that?
Well, this is a a more, let's say, medium, long term view. In in our forecast, we expect, let's say, following the energy transition, we expect the demand in drilling for oil and gas to continue to grow in the coming year because we need to substitute the part of the coal that has been reduced largely in China, in other countries and to shift the metrics in a way that leave more room for gas. So overall, we still expect drilling to grow in the coming five, ten years. And then peak and the demand for oil and gas to start reducing down spend. And in this environment, our market may be growing for a while, but we need to imagine that on the long term, the consolidation will be important in our market.
And Tenaris is clearly the stronger leading player in this. We are financially very strong. We are, as we did in the past, considering option that could create value for our shareholder related to consolidation. And we will be prepared for this when we see that opportunities could be
That's great. Thank you very much. Your
next question comes from the line of Faisal Chireshi with Jefferies International. Your line is open.
Hello. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Just in I would like to know in an environment of rising input costs and rising HRC prices, what impact would this have on your working capital investment in the coming quarters? Thank you.
Thank you, Faisal. In this environment, we will not increase volume for our operation. We will gradually increase our inventories. But what is mostly affecting our working capital will be receivable. The volume, as I say, of our sales will increase and receivable will be higher.
In inventories, let me tell you that during the first quarter, we raised our level of inventory raw material, and we do not expect a very substantial increase in inventory because we think that we should be able now to manage our Rig Direct model with more efficient use of innovative working capital and SUCO to contain the increase in our capital. In other words, we expect to increase working capital less than the increase in our sales. Still, there will be absorption of cash flow to support increased. Now HOTFOR COIN is not one of our, I mean, it's not a relevant component of our inventories. Our inventories are mainly, the scrap iron ore and the labor and energy that are embedded in increased production level.
Now in a sense, see that hot rolled coil that has high price, and in my view, will remain at very high prices during 2021, is not a key component of our working capital. We are more focused on seamless in this moment, and that's the reason for this.
Thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Vebs Vaishnav with Coker and Palmer. Your line is open.
Just I know that people have tried to ask this question. So maybe if I can rephrase or make sure that I understand how you guys are thinking about '2 and 3Q. So it seems like when you talk about significant increases, you are talking about maybe around 10% revenue growth in 2Q, and you're talking about around 19% gross margins. And maybe then, I think, in response to questions to Emmys, I think it seems like you still think 3Q revenues would still be higher from 2Q despite seasonality EBITDA margins around 20%. Am I phrasing that correctly?
Yes. Basically, as I mentioned before, the increase in our sales will be higher than the 10% in the next Q and will continue to grow. And the change in the mix, the increase in the price in our sales gradually and in the cost of sale, keep in mind that the absorption has an important component. Because in the end, when we increase production, our cost of sold is affected by the impact of better absorption. No?
This is containing our cost, and this is helping in our margin.
Got it. And just on like, I think I talked about gross margins. I I meant EBITDA margin. And in terms of working capital for the full year, how I I couldn't understand what you are trying to say. Could you please repeat that in the past question?
How was the working capital for the year? Well, the working capital for the year, what I'm saying is during 2021, working capital will increase because of the increase in sales and will absorb capital resources because increasing sales is important. But probably the stronger component of this increase will be the increasing receivable because increasing sales imply an increasing receivable. Last year, in 2020, we were generating cash flow in a moment of reduction of sales. In 2021, in increase on sales, we will absorb capital in receivables and to some extent, in basic of inventory.
But we expect to be efficient and be able to support higher level of sales, which less level of inventory comparing, for instance, with the past.
Next question comes from the line of Luigi Bibelis with Equitasium.
For me, on the Argentina and Mexico, how do you see the development of the countries in the coming quarters and 2022 onwards? Thank you. Thank you, Luigi. Well, we expect that the level of activity in South America, let's say, to increase slowly because Mexico will will move on, but very gradually. I mean, there will be no sudden change even if the price of oil that is raising is supporting the decision to continue investment by Pemex and by the private operator or company operator there.
We expect in Argentina the negotiation of the plan gap that occurred at the beginning of this year is stabilizing drilling for gas for the next four years. So in general, we expect the level of activity to be relatively stable with around fifty, fifty five rigs operating with some continuity. Now there could be disruption that could come from different reason, including the pandemic in this operation, but this is what we see. Now when we look at the entire Latin America, we perceive 2021 as a more positive year compared to 2020. In Argentina, not only the level of rigs will remain there, but there will be some pipelines that will also contribute to an increase of our sales in the second part of the year and even in the second quarter.
Now there is the project in The Caribbean, in Suriname, in the northern part of the continent are very important. And they continue and go on excellent, aperture, result. I mean, the company are either exploring or developing the different field in Guyana and Suriname. This is an important component of complex projects that also will be higher in the second in 2021 compared to 2020. So the goal, considering Mexico and Latin America, we expect the market to improve.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from the line of Alejandro DeMichelis with MAE Securities. Your line is open.
Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. Thank you very much for taking my question. Actually, two questions. The first one, Paolo, to go back to your volume guidance, yes.
So with the, say, increasing in activity in North America, your mills going back to full capacity and so on, can we actually see at some point this year the whole volumes of Tenaris going back to, say, pre COVID levels when you were doing 800,000, 850,000 tons per quarter? That's the first question. And then the second question is on Argentina that you just touched. Have you seen any kind of impact from the social demonstrations in Vaca Muerta that we've seen this month?
Yes. Well, on the first
well, I would say that activity in seamless will in a seamless pipe will go back pretty close to that. And in 2022, we will perceive the stronger, let's say, demand from the contract in The Middle East and from a get back a coming back of the offshore because we perceive that the offshore project are, let's say, are moving on, and we will see this in 2022. What we are probably
still missing
our large pipeline in Brazil, for instance. There is some moment in the past that we're supporting our sales of welded pipe in Brazil. We do not see this yet. But probably in 2022, we will see also the level of activity in Brazil picking up more strongly. So we're going in that direction.
And in 2022, Denaris will be able to deploy all his capacity and the capacity that is coming from acquisition and from the investment realized over the last four years. I mean, we are going in that direction. But we will see the extent gradually.
Okay. But but but but but in terms of things that you're seeing that happening in 2021 or close to that number in 2021, yes?
By the end of this year, by the third quarter, at the end of this year, we will be working at a very high level of operation. That's clear. Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back over to speaker Giovanni Sardagna, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you, Nora. And, well, thank you all for joining us in our quarterly conference call. And, well, we hope to meet you soon. Hopefully, we will be out of this, and we will start to meet you again physically. Thank you.
Bye.
Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.
This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. You may all disconnect.