Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining TIM's second of the quarter and reviewing the main operating and financial results. Underlying the valuation analysis supporting the board. As usual, the presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. Before we begin, please refer to the Consistent with our Q1 earnings call, today's session is also supported by AI, leveraging the digital twins of our CEO and CFO. This solution is part of the broad intelligence to enhance internal processes, improve operational efficiency, and further strengthen the quality of our communication with stakeholders. With that, let me hand over to Pietro for the presentation. Pietro.
Everyone. Let's start with slide three, which summarizes the key achievements of the quarter. If I had to describe this quarter, it has made the difference. Quarter after quarter, we have both our operational performance and our financial profile. This quarter was marked by solid execution across three key dimensions: operating performance, capital structure, and shareholder value creation. Starting with operating performance, our second-quarter results were fully in line, most importantly, with the consistency of our execution across all business segments. Based on these results, we are confirming full-year 2026 guidance. This reflects the confidence we have in the trajectory of our business for the remainder of the year and the reverse stock split. These were not standalone actions. They are part of a broader journey started. Finally, on shareholder value creation. The quarter delivered several tangible milestones.
First, we have fully collected the reimbursement of the— We completed the first tranche of the share buyback program launched in June, demonstrating our disciplined approach to capital allocation. Third, our strategic progress and financial stability in TIM's financial solidity. Lastly, the disposal of Sparkle continues to progress. Following E.U. clearance, we are awaiting authorization from the U.S. government, and we now have a transaction with Poste Italiane. Subject to the completion of the relevant conditions, the board believes this represents another important step in our strategy to create sustainable long-term value for all shareholders while further strengthening the presentation. Overall, this quarter confirms one key message. We continue to execute with discipline, we continue to deliver on our commitments, and we continue to build long-term value for all our stakeholders. The key message of this slide is very simple.
Once this effect is isolated, the underlying performance of the group is stronger across virtually all our key financial metrics. This is why throughout this presentation we will continue to distinguish between reported and underlying performance. After lease by approximately EUR 84 million compared to last year. This is a temporary phasing effect rather than a reflection of the underlying health of the business. Starting from the group, revenues increased by 2.0% year-on-year, reaching EUR 6.8 billion, excluding the supported by continued commercial momentum across both domestic and Brazil. EBITDA after leasing , adjusting for the MVNO impact, and underlying demonstrates that our operating leverage continues to improve and that the actions we have taken on pricing, commercial discipline, portfolio quality, and cost transformation are translating into stronger profitability.
Capital allocation is also— billion, representing 12.6% of revenues, fully consistent with the investment framework we have communicated to the market. Cash generation also remains solid. Supported by the collection of the 1998 concession fee reimbursements. Piergiorgio will come back to cash flow in greater detail later in the presentation. Net debt after lease stood at EUR 7.3 billion, corresponding to a leverage ratio of 1.94 x. Both Italy and Brazil contributed positively. In domestic, revenues were broadly stable, but excluding the MVNO confirming the resilience of our commercial performance despite a— EBITDA after lease grew by 7.1%, reflecting continued commercial discipline, efficiency actions, and once again delivered an excellent performance, with revenue growth of— percent and continued strong cash generation, five. I believe this chart provides one of the clearest—quarter after quarter, we continue to see a tangible improvement in our operating performance.
Looking first at the headline figures, group revenues accelerated from 1.4% growth in the first quarter to 2.7% in the second quarter. Even more importantly, EBITDA after the lease moved from a 2.7% decline , confirming a meaningful improvement in profitability. The same trend is visible in our domestic business. Revenues returned to growth during the second quarter, while EBITDA after lease showed a significant recovery, reflecting the benefits of our commercial strategy— the temporary impact of the MVNO transition, the underlying— grew by 3.5% in the second quarter, while— accelerated from 4.5% growth in Q1 to more than 9% in Q2. Domestic EBITDA after lease reached 8.1%. At the same time, we remain fully aware that the second half of the year will require the same level of discipline and execution that has characterized the first six months. The environment remains on all our objectives.
The progress achieved so far reinforces our confidence in the guidance. Let me now turn to our consumer business for years. We continue to prioritize value over volume, focusing on customer quality, disciplined pricing, and long-term profitability, rather than pursuing an economic market share. The top-line performance in the first half was mainly affected by the temporary phasing of MVNO revenue. Broadly stable year-on-year, confirming the resilience of our competitiveness. This resilience is the result of consistent execution. We have continued to progress with our repricing program, which has now reached around 3.6 million. At the same time, we recently launched TIM Priority, representing the next step in the evolution of our commercial proposition. Our objective is not simply to provide connectivity but to strengthen customer relationships through higher-value services, increasing customer lifetime value over time.
Fixed ARPU increased by around 2% year-on-year, reaching EUR 33 per month, confirming our— In mobile, ARPU remained broadly stable at EUR 10.7 per month. In today's market, protecting value is more important than chasing volume. This has been a conscious choice throughout our transformation. We remain disciplined in our commercial approach, focusing on the quality and profitability of our customer base rather than pursuing KPIs. Fixed net additions slightly worsened with respect to the previous quarter. However, later in the presentation. In mobile, churn remained stable at 1.5%, while fixed churn—the resilience of our customer base despite continued competitive pressure. TIM vision continued to perform well, with revenues growing 7.1% year-on-year, confirming the strength of our content proposition ahead of the new —continue to improve. Let me now turn to TIM Enterprise.
The key message of this slide is that TIM Enterprise's cons and service revenues are increasing at a high single-digit pace. Thanks to the consistent execution of the strategy we have been pursuing, we have run on top of that connectivity. This is exactly the direction we have been pursuing, combining our network assets with the cloud. Cloud revenues increased by 18.1% year-on-year, but to increase the weight of higher-value digital services within our portfolio. As we have to represent more than 70% of enterprise revenue, other IT services declined by 4.7% year-on-year, mainly reflecting our ongoing portfolio optimization in businesses with low profitability. We continue to focus our investments and commercial efforts on those areas—growth potential. The National Strategic Hub also continued to deliver a very strong performance, with revenues increasing by 50% year-on-year.
This confirms the growing importance of digital sovereignty for both public institutions and large enterprises and reinforces TIM's leadership in one of the most strategic areas of Italy's digital transformation. Let me now turn to Brazil. Once again, TIM Brasil delivered a quarter of consistent and healthy performance and cash generation. However, our ambition goes beyond preserving today's performance. We have to recognize that the Brazilian market is becoming progressively— phase of consolidation and value creation. For this reason, our focus is increasingly shifting towards the next phase of growth. Going forward, sustaining this strong performance will increasingly depend on our ability to accelerate new revenue streams, expand our digital service portfolio, and further differentiate our business beyond traditional mobile connectivity.
Our objective—of our core business with new sources of value creation, in line with this strategy in the quarter—we closed the acquisition of I-Systems and expanded our B2B value proposition with the integration of V8.Tech. As I often say, execution is never a destination. It is a continuous process of anticipating change before the mark—Piergiorgio for a more detailed review of the financial results.
Thank you, Pietro. Good morning, everyone. Let me start with a few comments on Group Opex and CapEx. In the second quarter, group was driven by inflation running at +4.5% over the last 12 months and by higher content costs. In Italy, OpEx growth was limited at +1.0% year-on-year and was entirely related to revenue-driven components, mainly higher cost of goods sold associated with ICT revenues growth. Including savings in network operations. G&A and IT costs increased, mainly reflecting higher IT-related expenses, while Opex related to the FiberCop MSA declined by 12% year-on-year and accounted for around 20% of domestic—let me also reassure you that our energy costs remain well under control. In Italy, we have hedged around 80% of our expected energy consumption for 2026 and approximately 50% for 2027, providing good visibility and protection against potential volatility.
Turning to CapEx, group CapEx amounted to EUR 0.4 billion in the quarter, equal to 12.7% of revenues. Domestic CapEx year-on-year in line with the continued development of the business. Momentum while CapEx continues to be managed with discipline and in line with our strategic priorities. Let's now move to cash flow and debt. In the second quarter, cash flow was positively impacted by the collection of the 1998 concession fee. EUR 313 million, slightly lower year-on-year and consistent with the usual seasonality of the second quarter. Financial charges amounted to EUR 98 million, with a significant reduction mainly due to the optimization initiatives implemented over past quarters and to the positive one-off interest component related to the concession fee. Cash taxes were mainly related to Brazil.
As a result, equity-free cash flow was positive by more than. Recorded EUR 61 million of dividends paid to TIM Brasil minorities, EUR 692 million related to saving share conversion, EUR 240 million of cash impact for the I-Systems acquisition in Brazil, and EUR 48 million related to the share buyback program. Broadly stable versus the previous quarter, with leverage at. From solid cash generation, supported by the collection of the— Pietro
Thank you, Piergiorgio. Let me conclude by looking beyond the next quarter and sharing how we see the next phase of our journey. The first half has confirmed that our transformation delivers tangible results. More importantly, our priority is clear: to unlock the full potential of the business we have reshaped over the past few years. We see several structural opportunities supporting this next phase. The first is our customer platform. We have significantly simplified the group and strengthened our operating model. The next step is to leverage that platform to deepen customer relationships, increase customer lifetime value. A more rational environment supports sustainable value creation for the entire industry. As I have said many times, protecting value is far more important than chasing volumes, and any evolution in that direction is fully consistent with our strategy. A third opportunity comes from digital sovereignty.
TIM is uniquely positioned to play a leading role in supporting Italy's digital transformation. At the same time, there are issues experienced by our main wholesale fiber provider. Restoring the expected level of performance across the ecosystem remains an important priority. We also continue the evolution of energy costs in Italy. These are relevant. They may influence the timing of execution in specific areas, but they do not change our priorities or the long-term fundamentals. If anything, it is that value creation is not about operating perfectly but about learning continually, adapting to a changing environment, and making disciplined decisions. That has been TIM's transformation so far, and that is exactly how we are confirming today. The key message is consistency. The projections presented here are fully aligned with the reflection of a disciplined and realistic set of assumptions.
Our delivery gives us confidence in this trajectory. In 2025, we increased revenues and EBITDA after lease fully in line with the guidance provided. Has already entered a phase of greater financial discipline, stronger cash generation, and improved balance sheet flexibility. Looking ahead, we continue to focus on profitable growth, mindful of the external environment and of the challenges we discussed earlier. For 2026, we are targeting EBITDA after lease growth of 5%-6% and group CapEx intensity below 14% of revenues—c ash flow after lease.
Looking at our 2027 targets, % CAGR over the 2024-2027 period, percent CAGR over the same time frame with group CapEx. We expect equity free cash flow after lease of around EUR 1.1 billion in 2027, while keeping leverage comfortably below our committed ceiling of 1.7x, even including the impact of the I-Systems acquisition and the extension of the split payment VAT regime in Italy. Overall, our standalone plan confirms the fundamental improvement in TIM's financial profile. Before concluding, let me spend a moment on the assumptions underpinning our standalone plan. As you know, the board expressed a positive view on Poste's offer based on a detailed assessment of the standalone business plan. For 2026 and 2027, that plan is based on a number of clearly identified assumptions, which are summarized on this slide.
The first point I would like to emphasize is that our plan is built on a disciplined and realistic set of assumptions. Where there is uncertainty, we have not considered potential upsides. Importantly, more achievable. Starting with towers, our assumptions fully reflect the confirmed exit from INWIT. We assume that the migration from INWIT will begin and also have joint ventures and other operators. On the spectrum, we assume the renewal of the current licenses in 2029 with the related cash outflows starting from that year. The final renewal mechanism will, as usual, depend on the decisions of the Italian government. On NetCo, there is no strategic combination between FiberCop and Open Fiber. To be clear, our plan does not factor the disclosure made in February.
We continue to expect meaningful synergies with benefits progressively materializing from the impact on service revenues, particularly on MVNO amounting to approximately EUR 100 million per year and future industry rationalization. Finally, our capital allocation plan remains unchanged. The standalone plan is built on assumptions that are prudent, consistent, and credible. It does not depend on external upside to deliver the targets, and this is precisely what gives us confidence in the plan while performing more favorably over time. Before concluding, let me take a step back. Today, TIM is very—over this period, we have taken difficult decisions. We have simplified the group, strengthened the balance sheet, reshaped the portfolio, and improved the quality of our businesses. Most importantly, they were all part of the same strategic vision. Looking beyond 2026, our priorities are clear.
We will continue to expand our value proposition. We will embed AI across our products and operating model, addressing the next generation of connectivity use cases, including wearables, connected vehicles, and IoT, and leveraging our digital infrastructure needs. These are not new strategic directions. They are the natural evolution of the transformation we've been executing over the past five years. We've built stronger foundations. The next phase is about accelerating growth, capturing new opportunities, and continuing to create sustainable value for our shareholders by executing with the same discipline while progressively unlocking new sources of growth and value. Let me conclude with a final thought. As you know, the board has carefully evaluated Poste's offer with the support of independent financial advisors.
Its positive recommendation was based. Platform would create meaningful strategic opportunities and, importantly, would reduce the execution risk associated with them. The board reached its conclusion starting from a standalone business plan. Is supported by a prudent and transparent set of assumptions for the years thereafter, which we have shared with you today. This means continuing to create value also as a standalone company. Whether the company continues on a standalone basis. We can get there. Thank you for your attention. We are now happy to take your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our Q&A session. For analysts who wish to ask questions, please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. Once your name has been announced, you can ask your question. If you need to withdraw. The first question comes from Mr. Joshua Mills at Exane. Mr. Mills, please unmute yourself and ask your question.
You can hear me. I had a couple of questions on the fixed-line market and FiberCop MSA negotiations. On the fixed line market, it does look like things got a bit tough for this quarter, and you're explicitly calling out the deteriorating service quality of FiberCop. Could you give us some practical examples of what that deterioration looks like? Then any sense of when things will improve? Should we expect that to remain weak in the second half of the year? Secondly, maybe we can lump the FiberCop and the INWIT MSA negotiations together. What exactly are you looking for? Then on INWIT, can you just give us an update on where you are at the moment with those discussions? Thank you.
Thank you, Joshua. About the first question related to what you. It was never like that. The things are proceeding—
Joshua, for the question. We don't really see a deterioration in the market. We had a variance year-over-year due to several factors. The first one, which we already mentioned in the previous call, is that this year we pushed forward. We actually pushed earlier the plan of price up; hence, we also saw a little more disconnection. We also had a partial effect. The age of our voice customer is very high, actually over 84 years old. That base is, let me say, physiologically disconnecting. The third factor is actually some deterioration in performance, but a slight deterioration in performance, which we are working on with the network provider, and we are hopeful and confident that this will be addressed. Structure. The positive side is the fixed market to upsell, and you see it also in the ARPU trend.
The value increase is somehow compensating some loss of lines. We also are due to the possible combination with Poste on the fixed line.
Thank you, Andrea. To add something to Andrea, what today is provider— because they are starting from a position in which, on their own business, they have a huge level of margin that is on the telecommunication. As Andrea was mentioning before, in this way, the potential deal with Poste Italiane is a kind of insurance on that because we could be able to compete with the same level of weapons. When we move on to FiberCop & INWIT, the first point is that we are experiencing a deterioration in the level of the quality of delivery and assurance. You can ask the national watchdog, or you can ask all our competitors, because everybody on the traditional services, FTTC and PSTN lines, is less on FTTH.
This is something that we don't want because it hurts our customer base. The issue is that we don't work to play with penalties toward the supplier. We are a service provider. When we talk about INWIT, I think that your question is related to what is appearing on the press, that we are in talk with INWIT from this legal standpoint of view. Just to be in the litigation process. I have nothing to comment about that. I hope that was clear, Joshua.
Very clear. Thank you.
Please unmute yourself and ask your question.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for the presentation. I had two questions. The first one was about your decision not to give an update on your midterm guidance that was planned. I wanted to understand if that decision was due to legal restrictions. My question was about broadband ARPU. Still continues to grow nicely, but we do note a slowdown compared to previous quarters. It doesn't seem to be an issue with the phasing of price increases because you highlighted earlier that you actually did them early this year. I was wondering about the competitive environment. Lastly, if I may, the spectrum consultation that has been initiated by the Italian regulator is in line in terms of, and do I understand correctly that there may be some MVNO? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Mathieu. Let's start from spectrum regulation. What is important is that yesterday was issued just a press release. I think that is too much. From the reading, we are asked to do something that was less driven on a lump sum at the beginning and more on investment commitment. From the press release, it is well-defined. The commitment towards the MVNO or other player is something that usually happens every time that we have a discussion on the frequencies. You know better than me. The devil is in detail. It is to be more precise on that. Several aspects of our plan. If you remember, our new plan should happen in September 2026. At the time, Poste, when they started the public tender offer, declared that they should have updated their own plan for the next years in the middle of July.
Based on the request of all the shareholders that would like to take it. Comparison: we accelerated our plan, and we moved from. Of August. If you remember, the date that we put—r espect the regulation and the legal timeframe, because today the public tender offer in Italy is under a regulation law that gives up to five days to put in the public tender offer our board opinion. When Poste accelerated due to the acceleration of the approval, what happened to what they received from CONSOB? Standpoint of view, it's also important to understand. It should have been 2026, 2027, and 2028. In this presentation, we are confirming the guidance of 2026 and 2027. The 2028 can be elaborated in some way because. That we already declared.
Our plan should have been 2026 and 2028, and here we have a good part of all the information. That is quite similar to the chart that we put in the presentation. That is a chart. Are well-defined because of the potential discontinuity. Towers and any kind of earn-out. About Poste. We cannot consider market repair inside the plan. Frankly speaking, just for a second, let's imagine that we are not under a public tender offer, and we come to you with the 2026 and 2028. A market repair, and our equity-free cash flow will double. Not do a plan betting on the fact that something happens. The other very important point was. If formally, you can do all the elements to do all your evaluation. Again, exactly as you mentioned, we have not been completely hands-free. Framework of the public tender offer in Italy.
It is about the broadband ARPU. Everything clear, Mathieu?
Thank you, Pietro.
Andrea.
Thank you. Of the market. Here, I have to say that the overall fixed ARPU trend is affected by several factors. Let me explain a little what the combination of factors that affect the overall ARPU is. As we said, we continue the campaign of price-up. There is an effect that is affecting, and you see also in the chart that TIMvision revenues are growing more than 7% year-over-year. There is. Increase of spin-down in the customer base. Certainly, there is an effect in the difference between the front book and the back book. The acquisition ARPU is somehow increasing. The more we increase the ARPU of the customer base, the more the distance between the ARPU of the customer base and the front book is affected in terms of dilution.
Own success because we upsell the customer, and we increase the price up, and we also increase the distance between the front book and the back book. That is where Pietro's comment on consolidation and market repair is so important because it is the real book that would completely wipe out the dilution that we see in the market. Some encouraging rationality signs from some competitors, some removal of promotion, slight increases in the front book offer, and we also see aggressiveness from the energy providers and some other players, especially the new one. This keeps the front book with a gap to the customer base ARPU, and this affects our growth.
The other thing that I want to signal is that we continue to see stability in the mobile ARPU, which is, frankly speaking, great news because also in the market, we see a positive trend of reduction of volume. The mobile is going, if you want, a little better than the fixed in terms of dilution effect. I hope that has been clear.
That's very clear. Thank you very much.
Thanks.
Thanks.
Mr. Sydney, please unmute yourself and ask your question.
That's great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for taking the questions. Just two , please, from me. Pietro, on Italian mobile, you made it very clear in your great-to-hear in Italy, but mobile pricing remains far too low in recent AGCOM announcements. Give TIM more confidence to both invest and perhaps raise prices more aggressively in the week. Secondly, a more or less technical point. That if the Poste share price were to decline materially from here, the offer could no longer be a mechanism through which the board can revisit the recommendation of the offer. I appreciate it's quite a technical question, but it'd be great to get.
In fact, today we have the lowest price in the world, not in Europe, in the world. This is the reason for which we started to launch the TIM Priority offer, because you cannot think of increasing the price without giving to the customer something more. This is what we did also in Brazil with the more-for-more approach. It's clear that to have our technical network where they were trying to explain everywhere in Europe, the move from four operators to three operators to the customer. There are some examples that show that increasing the level of quality of the service to the customer does not require a price increase. While the country where you have the highest level of competition progressively deteriorates in the quality of the service.
I think that is very good , and that is also the guideline for the renewal of the frequencies. I will leave to Piergiorgio , and if you will need Agostino to give you all the legal advice, what is important that could be in both directions? What do I mean?
Any exchange offer, of course, has a price component in cash and a price component in shares. The fairness is, of course, based on the conditions at the date of the issuance of the fairness and the market conditions prevailing at that time. The usual one, discounted cash flow, dividend discount comparable , is based on the conditions at that time. Should you have any variation, of course, it depends on this deviation, but there is no, let's say, a mechanism like in any exchange offer. The mechanism is fixed. The exchange rate has been evaluated at that time. As Pietro was saying, the market risk is going in both directions. This is, let's say, the usual way of how the fairness opinion is done. As you said, if you need to analyze the underlying—
Evaluation of the board was made at the time of the launch of the offer, and it remains. It says we cannot revise our fairness opinion depending on the—w e stay; this is the only evaluation done by our board.
Maybe an additional comment on the mobile market trend and also the possible, or let me say likely, effect of the measure on the frequency. Indeed, we mentioned several times that online on the website, you see that the price of promotions is very low. As we said several times, the impact on revenue and the sustainability in the market, namely Iliad, has much less impact than it used to have. Have less impact in the market. We believe in the frequency. This will involve a material effect on the difference in quality, and that is why we also launched the premium service.
Thank you. Pietro, can I just have a quick follow-up? You've been a big advocate of essentially looking at location-based pricing. I was just wondering—
Is that location-based pricing, for example? It's quite complex. It's different if you live in Brazil, where we have more than 26 states, and each of them is large like Italy. When you move to Italy today, for example, there is already an issue because when Andrea have to define the price for ultra broadband through Italy, but in reality we have four or five black area, the commercial gray area, the PNRR black area of FiberCop, the gray area PNRR of Open Fiber. Things. You are not talking about the region. You are not saying, I don't know how familiar you are with Italian geography, Puglia , and Lombardia. In the same city, Rome, I can have five different wholesale prices. We are not talking north of Rome and south of Rome. In three blocks, price. This is something that we have to try to address.
It's fair that whoever builds an infrastructure must have the right remuneration on the investment. You cannot do that without an approach that is quite similar. If it is increased, it must be transferred to the customer. Wholesale price. You cannot have the arbitrage on that. Okay? Location-based price is quite complex in an environment like the Italian one. Latency. If you want a better latency, you have to pay for a better latency. I have to remind everybody that today the ultra-broadband and the mobile are priority lanes. As happens in all the other businesses, you have to pay for the premium priority. I hope that was more clear for all.
Yeah. It's great. Thank you. I really appreciate the comments. Thank you.
You are—
The question comes from Ms. Molly Whitcomb at Goldman Sachs. Ms. Whitcomb, please unmute yourself and ask your question.
Hi, good morning. Thinking about the timing of any potential overlap with a 10-year migration away from INWIT and potentially increased investment commitment in return for Spectrum. Do you think that you can commit to increased network investment for Spectrum, given that it might potentially clash with negotiations with them? My second question is just on energy costs. I think a slide earlier said you'll hedge for 50% next year. Just wondering what assumptions you've made for energy costs into 2027, given that you've reconfirmed guidance. Is there a risk that if the—
Can you repeat the first question more slowly?
I'm just wondering if you can commit to increased network investment for spectrum renewal, given that you have ongoing—
Yes, about the first question, the answer is yes, we can do that. What is important to remember to everybody is that we have already reached the minimum commitment towards INWIT. Kind of a right of first refusal. From a certain point of view, if I create a JV where the cost to build the antenna is much lower, I'm ready to give to the shareholder of INWIT to build the antenna without having an IRR and without paying a dividend. Because if I do a JV with Fastweb, there will be no further zero margin. I want to repay only the cost to follow them. Everything is quite rational. There's nothing hidden. The cards are unfolded on the table.
Just given that you've reconfirmed 2027 guidance and given the situation in the Middle East, is there any risk that you have to revisit that?
To be open, because, in the last three months, we were on the roller coaster also for the cost of energy. Based on I fight. No, I'm back to be a peacemaker. No, I fight again. The energy trading desk is waiting for the right moment, jointly with the assessment that we do with our risk manager, to cover and increase the coverage. Usually, if you remember, also in the past year, we were already at 50% for 2027, but we want to optimize. Optimize means that and try to optimize. On that, if I may, Molly, we were quite good because, if you remember, from 2022 until today, we were the result of all the energy crises, because we are always good enough to hedge the energy cost.
Yes. Thank you. Can I just come back a little bit? The 2027 guidance: what are you assuming exactly for energy? Are you assuming that you buy the further 50% at spot and that the price stays where it is today?
What we do is that we confirm the guidance. Based on the trend, we could increase the level of tomorrow I buy for all the 2020 desks. What is important is that we get the commitment to reach the guidance exactly as we did in the past.
Okay. Thank you very much, Pietro.
The next question comes from Mr. James Ratzer. Ask your question.
Yes. Thank you very much. Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. Two questions, please. The first one is around the fairness opinions, and the second one is on the comments you made, please. You have said that the valuation analysis is based on the management's 2026 to 2030 projections, and I think in the fairness opinions, they talked about assuming that the growth continues through to 2030. You would confirm based on the management projections. The reason for asking is because when you talked about doing a come. Therefore, I was wondering whether your own management plans actually had assumed that growth might accelerate. They've given two valuations, one standalone and then one combined with Poste.
There is a scenario where the Poste deal has to go ahead because they get more than 67%, but not over 90% for the squeeze-out, so we will still have a free float in Telecom Italia. In that scenario, can you let us know what share of the EUR 700 million synergies that Poste is talking about the fairness opinions assumed? Secondly, just on the discussion you've raised. I know you touched on that earlier, but Pietro, can you go into that in a bit more detail? What specifically is it that has changed? Is this to do with the kind of connection process or a detail linked at all to FiberCop's own proposal to try to increase the prices, which are currently subject to an AGCOM review?
The discussion related to the price is not. When you talk about the new price list that FiberCop submitted, there are operators that are talking about that. Again, my suggestion to the market is let's apply the system of the energy, where we can pass to the customer any wholesale increase exactly as happened for the energy. While I'm unable to explain to you why there's a deterioration, this is a question that must be asked : the quality of the installation of the customer and the maintenance of the customer are deteriorating. I don't know how many Italian analysts are here in the call, but you can talk with them. For sure, any of our analyst colleagues who have experience in their — that are claiming about the quality. There's a deterioration. I'm unable to give you the answer.
What we are doing is that I pay for a service, and I would like to receive the s—
Thank you, Pietro. Thanks, James. As was said before, the fairness opinion analyzed the conditions at the time of the issuance of the fairness opinion and assumed the reaching of the threshold by Poste. There is no analysis of different alternatives depending on the reference for the fairness opinion. This is the first answer to your point. In terms of the underlying documentation for this fairness opinion, as said by Pietro in the previous answers, we have updated the 2025 and 2027 industrial plans, which were approved last year by the board and were approved. Sorry, it has been updated, not approved. It has been, yes, of course, approved and updated for the fairness opinion. We have considered, of course, an extrapolation until 2030 in order to include all the various updated assumptions on INWIT on all those items that are included on page 14.
This is what we have done. We have used updated projections based on the original business plan. This was the basis for the fairness opinion; this was given to the advisors.
Piergiorgio, just to follow up, does that growth belong to those that drive the top-line growth? You've said 2%-3% organic revenue growth in 20— The fairness opinions did include a standalone value for TI and then a combined value for TI. I suppose I'm just interested in the combined value for TI.
Yeah.
What was assumed for the amount of the Poste EUR 700 million synergies would accrue to Telecom Italia shareholders?
As said, the fairness opinions are assuming the usual as-is-to-be framework, which means exactly this point. There is an analysis of the Telecom Italia standalone plan, which was calculated and based on the updated projections as I described before. This is what they call it. This is compared to what they define get, which means based on the standalone projections of Telecom Italia plus the consensus of Poste. Of course, we have access only to the consensus. This was the basis for the combined projections and, of course, the relevant company, some of the parts, and the dividend discount model, given the fact that Poste is a financial conglomerate, so DDM is probably more applicable rather than other methodologies. This is something that, of course, is fully described in our Comunicato 103, which is the document where we defined all those elements.
I don't know if this is clear. In terms of the underlying projections, of course, we have taken a certain assumption on the growth that is, let's say, included in this Comunicato. We have not disclosed those documents. There is full compliance of these updated documents with the guidance.
Right. Okay.
Sorry, you were also mentioning the question of the synergies. The advisors are assuming the synergies in the to-be analysis; they are assuming the projections. Of course, we have calculated the component of the synergies in our numbers. Remember that we were using the synergies that we have communicated to the market in February 2025 before the tender offer launch. We are considering the synergies without double-counting, of course. This is what has been done. The standalone projections include the amount of synergies that we have announced in the overall amount of synergies.
Great. Thank you. I will follow up with Paolo just to understand what might happen in the scenario if there is still a free float that remains in TI after the transaction. No, thank you for those answers. I appreciate that. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question.
The next question comes from Mr. Tavolini; please unmute yourself and ask your question.
Hi. Please, on the spectrum renewal, I was wondering what could be a reasonable ballpark estimate of the incremental CapEx required from 2029 onwards, on top of the domestic investments you already envisage in your standalone plan? The second question is on Brazilian market that you said is becoming more major. Temporary or structural? I was wondering if this could accelerate your shift from volume to value. Thank you.
[Non-English content] Giorgio. The rational approach should be that you should. All the movement that we saw is related to the fact that Claro declared that it is perceived sometimes driven by some player on the field and monitors the situation in the next quarters to understand the past. As TIM Brasil declared in their three-year plan, that we have to start to think also to new sources of revenue that are coming from B2B, are coming from IoT machine to machine, and are coming also from IT services to have a kind of de-risking of the business model of TIM Brasil.
Thank you, Pietro.
Thank you, Giorgio.
Mr. Ghilotti, please unmute yourself and ask your question.
Hi. I have a couple of questions left. First, on the equity-free cash flow, more than usual seasonalities. Can you provide us some comfort over what is driving this additional free cash flow generation in the second half compared, for example, to last year? We heard about an AI gigafactory and if TIM is willing to take part to this project.
About the second question. We have to remember that also connectivity will ask for a better premium quality; it's clear that we have to take a look at that, always in a rational way. We are not prudential , disciplined, and rational. The answer is yes, we are taking a look at that. A few minutes ago, it seemed that it would take more than five minutes to take a look to the requirements, we will be able to come back to you sometime tomorrow with some more details. About the first question on equity-free cash flow, I will leave it to Piergiorgio.
Thanks, Domenico. Given the fact that in the last part of the year, we have a material increase of cash cost. That you know very well, this is the obvious answer. In order to address your point, let's make a simple comparison to what has happened in 2025 as a reference. In 2025, the second half, we had an equity-free cash flow positive in the region of slightly less than EUR 900 million. In the last part of the year, we had at least two elements that we are not in the second half of in 2026. The first one is the usual impact of split payment. On considering overall the VAT cash flow and evolution, I will come back on this later.
Second is, let's say, the impact of the Isopensione, Article 4. If you do not consider these two elements that affect 2025, you arrive to a number that is broadly in line with what we are envisaging as the best way to address your point. Let me maybe comment a bit on this point of the split payment, because this is something that, of course, is probably much more known to you than to the other non-Italians. In Italy, the mechanism of the VAT is quite simple. On accounts payable, you pay a credit, while on the other side, on the accounts receivable, these accounts receivable include VAT and payable, because through the various mechanism of liquidation, you have a year-end, which means, and just to be clear, this is only limited to the public administration. On our accounts receivable versus the public administration cash.
In this case, we do not cash in the VAT, which means that we do not have a VAT liability. In our account, we have only the VAT credit. The difference between 2024 and 2025. This explains, let's say, a difference that has been material last year, and this is not something that we are planning to have this year, which means that in the second part, we are—
[inaudible] . Let me just definitely confirm also the further. The issue is there.
Thank you, Domenico, because if not, it seems that I'm too polemic, and I would like to avoid it. Again, before concluding, a few words. First of all, it's a recall to the management because we cannot be distracted by the public tender offer. We have to deliver the number of the guidance. Challenging than the fourth quarter. We can be weaker in the third and stronger in the fourth. What is important is that we are [inaudible]. Thank you to everybody.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is over. Thank you.