Tinexta S.p.A. (BIT:TNXT)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Nov 8, 2024

Operator

Good afternoon, this is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Tinexta Group nine months 2024 results ended on the 30th of September 2024 conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Josef Mastragostino, Chief Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

Thank you, Operator. First of all, thank you for joining Tinexta's nine months results presentation. We're sorry for the delay, but we've had a major electricity problem here in Milan, and unfortunately, we were late, and therefore, sorry again for that. Let's kick it off by saying that here with me today is Pier Andrea Chevallard, CEO of Tinexta Group, Oddone Pozzi, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, all the relevant documentation of the nine months 2024 results can be downloaded from our company website in the Investor Relations section. For the purpose of this call, Pier Andrea will go over some key strategic items and messages of the call. I will go over the nine months 2024 highlights and updates. Oddone instead will go over the nine months financial results, as well as the business unit's performance, providing us with a deep dive.

The last part of the call will be dedicated to Q&A. A recording of this conference call will also be available on our company website, and it will be posted upon completion of this call. Pier Andrea?

Pier Andrea Chevallard
CEO, Tinexta

Thank you, Josef, and welcome everyone to our call. I would like to start by updating you on our performance as of September 30th, 2024, and highlighting the growth experienced by the business in the third quarter of the year. While performance came in very strong if compared to the prior year, the fourth quarter will represent a very important part of this year's delivery, as in the last years. It is no secret that 2024 has been characterized by general turmoil due to a variety of external factors. In this scenario, our group has not remained still, and instead has reacted and adapted to these circumstances and will continue to do so. However, such conditions have significantly affected some of our key markets, especially Italy and France, leading us to further update our guidance for the end of the year.

I will try to better explain some of the key dynamics of the group by walking you through the different business units while providing some meaningful insight. First of all, Digital Trust continues to perform extremely well, with great performance registered again this quarter. Growth is steadily coming in at double-digit growth, with marginality growing more than revenues. Such performance is the result of constant and careful cost management. Moving to Cybersecurity, Business Innovation, their performances have been influenced by a variety of external elements. Business Innovation, on the one hand, was negatively impacted by the declining rate related to Industry 4.0 R&D tax credit, as well as the delays in the launch of Industry 5.0 and its implementation process. Let me be very clear on this.

As such, a phenomenon is entirely out of our control, but rather the result of transitioning from one fully funded plan, the 4.0, to another, the 5.0. For the 5.0, EUR 6.3 billion have been allocated and will show its effect in the coming months. Till now, it hasn't shown any effect because not all the regulatory tools have been delivered. On the other hand, we have also been impacted by the political unrest in France, which caused delays regarding public tenders and the lower level of winning projects, penalizing ABF Group. Such performance for ABF, while strongly disappointing, was also out of our control, making the result entirely driven by the overall French market conditions. Going to Cybersecurity divisions, it has mainly been impacted by the slowdown in growth of the overall IT services market.

It is important to highlight that the IT services market in Italy has shown signs of slower growth if compared to other markets, mostly driven by lower available economic resources and therefore budgets. These elements justify and explain the results that we will present to you today. From the perspective of full transparency and constructive dialogue with the financial community, we have decided to update our guidance accordingly. Moreover, to address the performance of these two business units, we have decided to implement a new series of processes aimed at achieving a higher level of efficiency to face these new challenges. We will start with strong scrutiny of the Cybersecurity business unit in order to better overall efficiency, in particular following the recent integration of the three purchased companies.

It will then be the turn of Business Innovation, which will, on the one hand, be pushed by the stronger financing of Industry 5.0, but also by a clear plan of rationalization and reallocation of resources to better respond to market needs. We are confident that these actions, which will have greater disclosure during the presentation of our strategic plan and the full year results, will lead us to a strong performance for 2025. Lastly, I would like to say that the Board of Directors has approved the beginning of a share buyback program, giving its full confidence towards the company, its shares, and the shareholders. I will now leave it to Josef and Oddone, who will give an in-depth overview of the numbers. Thank you very much.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

Thank you, Pier Andrea. Turning to page four of the presentation, we will go over some key data on the nine months results. This is our year-to-date data. Revenues were EUR 306 million, growing around 13% versus prior years. EBIDA adjusted was primarily in line with the prior year at EUR 56 million. EBITDA, on a reported basis, was EUR 45.5 million, and EBIT came in at around EUR 32.5 million. From a net profit adjusted basis, you're looking at net profit around EUR 20 million, and Free Cash Flow adjusted was around EUR 38 million on an adjusted basis. Net financial position is EUR 306 million versus the EUR 102 million on a fiscal year 2023 basis, obviously including all of the acquisitions on a year-to-date basis. Let me turn to page five.

On page five, as Pier Andrea highlighted, the 9 Months Results were characterized by a strong third quarter, and a pickup is expected in the fourth quarter, as we've always said on a year-by-year basis. The fourth quarter has a relatively very high overall weight, so this is important to highlight. I think most of these comments have been highlighted in terms of numbers. I think it's important maybe to highlight both adjusted Free Cash Flow, which was EUR 38 million, but on an LTM base, we're still over and close to EUR 55 million. The top line in all the business units still grew on a nine months basis. Digital Trust grew 16%. Very healthy was also the growth of EBITDA, which is, I would say, has reached an astonishing very high margin, close to 31%, which is a historical high. The EBITDA grew, again, on an adjusted basis, year-over-year 19%.

Cybersecurity grew on the top line around 13%, while EBITDA grew only 6.6%. On a Business Innovation standpoint, the growth was around 13% in revenue, and EBITDA came in at around EUR 16 million on a year-to-date basis. In terms of recent events and updates, I'm sure you know you have also followed some of the activities that we've also carried forward in terms of Defence Tech. Back in July, we had received the Golden Power approval of the takeover bid. In October, we launched the takeover bid at a price of EUR 3.80 a share, following the panel decision of Borsa Italiana and following also the approval of CONSOB. And this is no surprise that yesterday it was also announced that the successful completion of takeover of Defence Tech came in with over 95% of the target company offer.

So this was definitely a very strong message and a very, I would say, successful transaction. As Pier Andrea also confirmed and underlined, the Board of Directors today approved the initiation of a share buyback program to support and to believe into, obviously, into the stock and therefore the company. There were some other Board of Directors resolutions, which I'm not going to highlight because these are pretty much standard activity, approval of financial calendar of 2025. Let's turn to page six so we can have an overall view of the third quarter. As we said, we wanted to highlight the very strong performance of the third quarter. On a group basis, revenues grew 18%, and EBITDA grew at 14%. I would say that the undisputed star remains Digital Trust, which grows more than revenues in terms of EBITDA, growing 15% even in the third quarter.

Over close to 32% was the EBITDA margin in the third quarter, and the revenues grew around 11%. Cybersecurity bounced back with, I would say, a nice + 40% in terms of margins growth versus the prior year. The margin came close to 17.5%, while revenues grew 26%. BI saw instead a growth in the top line and a decline, we have to say, unfortunately, in the EBITDA, but we will heavily discuss extensively on this. And as you guys know, there is a conjunction of factors among which mix ABF and also the late, I would say, introduction of the 5.0. Turning to page seven, I think most of these numbers have already been highlighted, so there's really nothing to highlight on page seven. At this point, I will leave it to Oddone for the financial results comments. Oddone?

Oddone Pozzi
CFO, Tinexta

Thank you, Josef. Good afternoon, everybody, for joining the call. Josef already showed you the performance of the first nine months. You know how it was partially expected during Q3, the group was able to change the trend of the first six months, and the group was able to deliver on a like-for-like basis a new growth of revenue in the range of 5%, with the EBITDA growing up around 9%. This performance showed basically three things. First of all, Digital Trust continued further for another very good quarter with the right combination between growing internal revenue and growth and performance on EBITDA. Cybersecurity was able to improve back the profitability, so that was better than the previous year, and in BI, we stopped the decline that we have seen in the first three quarters.

ABF was not yet in the position to reverse the trend, although the result of the quarter was not reporting any loss additional from the first two quarters. So looking at the figures, definitely the positive new trend compared to the previous year was an encouraging step. If we look at the nine months, definitely we are not happy with the results that have been delivered. Although the revenue was able to go up in the range of 13%, including the change of perimeter, we had basically Digital Trust, as I already mentioned, with a very good performance. Cybersecurity is growing on year-to-date level by 5% in the revenue. That was not what we expected, and that was able to deliver almost a flat result in terms of EBITDA. Here, the comment is very clear.

Unfortunately, the pipeline and the portfolio order we had at the end of June was not enough, and also the incoming order we got during Q3 was not enough to meet the target that we set, both on Q3, but also, as you may have seen in the guidance, also by the end of the year. The company had some. I will deep dive later when I will go through the business unit. In terms of Business Innovation, it was already pointed out by Pier Andrea, where basically there is a delay driven by the 5.0 implementation, but also basically we are in a position where there is an imbalance between revenue and cost in the short term. If we go down to the P&L, we do not have new significant information.

Obviously, the level of interest is improving compared to the interest cost is increasing compared to the previous year due to the different net financial position. So, results of the net profit of continuing operations is around EUR 3 million. I will skip page 11. I will go to page 12. So basically, compared to the beginning of the year, here we have an increasing net capital investment, the acquisition of ABF that already occurred by the end of Q1, as well as the further step that we performed in executing the call of Defence Tech is driving the increase of the net capital invested. Obviously, we have an impact on the net financial position that is now around EUR 300 million. As you may see here, we performed basically almost EUR 200 million in acquisition.

Adjusted Free Cash Flow was at EUR 38.1 million, not as expected, but I will deep dive later on, not far from what we were expecting. If we move to page 13, we have here the net financial position I just commented. I would say that on a like-for-like basis, the Free Cash Flow is not far from the previous year, but we have to consider basically a few things. So basically that we invested a couple of EUR million more than previous year in real estate driven by the new corporate offices in Milan and Rome. So this is a one-off investment that is not going to occur in the future, and second, we have the two months of Defence Tech as well as ABF that has a negative contribution in Free Cash Flow. So this is how it is. If we go, I will go now to page 15.

On the last 12-month basis, still we have EUR 55 million of adjusted Free Cash Flow. That is quite a positive amount. Financial charges are still very low compared to the level of investment we have done, and the group was able to distribute EUR 37 million over EUR 30 million over the last year in terms of dividends. Acquisition and put option that were related to the end of the previous year to the put related to Cybersecurity combined to the acquisition amount up to EUR 210 million . I will go now through the business unit. If you go to Digital Trust at page 18, as you can see here, all the KPIs are very, very positive, so overall revenues are going up 16%, and profitability is going up 19%, with the EBITDA margin move again up almost one percentage point from 29, not far from 30.

If we look also on a like-for-like basis, the revenue is going up 8%, with the EBITDA going up at 12%. So at the end of the day here, we have to see that all the most important business lines are going up with a very strong double-digit, and the profitability is continuing to improve even more in a much stronger way driven by the excellent capability of the team to handle the investment with the capability to let the revenue grow. There is a lot of careful operations on cost management. On Cybersecurity, yeah, we have. These figures are consolidating also Defence Tech for the months of August and September. Defence Tech delivered EUR 5 million revenue with EUR 0.7 million EBITDA, with a positive performance that includes also the months of August.

If we look at the Cybersecurity, the revenue on a like-for-like basis, the revenue is going up 5%. Here we have a different mix that is then leading the explanation on the profitability. We had a positive contribution from proprietary product in the digital business, and this was very positive. The product went up by not far from 50%, with a very strong profitability that helped quite a lot. Unfortunately, the level of revenue in pure Cybersecurity products and solutions is not as expected, as a lack of sales that also is impacting the profitability on the service. As we were not able in a really short term to adapt the cost structure to the lower revenues than expected. So these are the main drivers of the situation.

As Pier Andrea mentioned, we are already working in having a much stronger approach on the sales, especially on Cybersecurity, and also to have a very detailed plan on rebalance the cost basis. The level of the orders in Q3 were disappointing, and therefore we have been called to adapt the guidance in terms of revenue and profitability for Cybersecurity. If we look at Business Innovation, again, as Pier Andrea mentioned, here basically organically the revenue were going down by almost 5%, mainly driven from the transition from 4.0 - 5.0. This was honestly not expected in such a way we suffered during Q2. But also when the rules of application of the 5.0 came out at the end of August, definitely as everybody may have read on the news, they have some critical point in the application that are slowing down the level of incoming orders here.

Nevertheless, the sales force is working very actively in order to collect orders and trying to deliver as much as possible by the end of the year. Digital services grew up very significantly in the range of 25% with a very good profitability, and this is a very positive information. In terms of change of perimeter, unfortunately, the performance of ABF is far from what we expect still following what Pier Andrea already mentioned. We completed, so basically we completed in August the exercise of the call, and then we launched the public tender offer, and then the takeover, sorry, the takeover bid, and then so we are above the 95% of the possible shares. We accomplished basically these two. This is.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

I'll take the last part. I'm turning to page 23.

We want to give crystal clear guidance explanation on page 23, so everybody's on board with this. First of all, we need to take into consideration that the guidance has been updated following the analysis of the nine-month results, as well as the consolidation of Defence Tech Holding as of August the 1st, 2024. As of November the 7th, as you all know, Tinexta now holds 95% + of Defence Tech, leading to a successful completion of the tender offer and consequent delisting of the target company. Getting to the numbers, the first part of the slide shows the guidance without Defence Tech versus, as it is required, what we had announced in the first half of 2024. So revenues will grow + 14%-16% versus the prior year. EBITDA adjusted will grow 10%-12% versus the prior year.

The leverage ratio defined as net financial position over EBITDA Adjusted will reach 2.3x at the end of 2024. You see those exact numbers compared to what was the announced guidance on a 1H 2024 basis. On the bottom part, we are providing the guidance, the full guidance with the consolidation for five months of Defence Tech. As a reminder, as of August 1st, 2024, revenues are expected at a group level to be anywhere between +18% - +20% versus the prior year. EBITDA Adjusted to be anywhere between +14% - 16% versus the prior year. And the leverage ratio, again defined as NFP over EBITDA, at around 2.8 x.

If we account on a pro forma basis, that means considering the entire year contribution from January 1st of 2024 of Defence Tech, that same leverage ratio is expected to end at around 2.7 x. At this point, I will leave it to the operator for the Q&A section.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one. At this time, the first question is from Aleksandra Arsova, Equita. Please go ahead.

Aleksandra Arsova
Equity Research Analyst, Equita

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. A couple on my end.

The first one is just maybe to understand better the building blocks of the new guidance. So if we take, I mean, forgetting for a moment, Defence Tech, so just the like-for-like basis, more or less EUR 10 million more than the last year. So how much of this EUR 10 million is Digital Trust, Cybersecurity, and Business Innovation? And then the second one, maybe on a little bit of color on ABF. So what do you expect the recovery to start maybe early 2025 or later on? Just some color on this. Thank you. Okay. Thank you for your question.

Oddone Pozzi
CFO, Tinexta

Definitely, the gap is mainly coming from Business Innovation. So Business Innovation is accounting more or less for 70%-75% of the gap. And part of this is coming from traditional business from Warrant, mostly, I would say, and a part also from ABF.

The remaining part, EUR 2 million-EUR 3 million are coming from Cybersecurity. This to make it very, very simple. I would say for Cybersecurity, like I said before, the very strong pipeline we had, the conversion rate much lower than expected. And so we have to revise our rate of conversion in order and revenue by the end of the year. At that time, with lower revenue, we have a little bit more cost, but you have seen already Q3 was better than previous year as profitability. So this is a good indicator, but it's not enough for confirming the Q4 guidance. So I would say here we have already a very clear plan. And so I think we may address this. So still, overall results are lower than expected, but still a good result.

If we move to Business Innovation, we have to say that when we developed the guidance in early July, honestly, we were expecting a much better picture from what was going to be out in terms of rules for the 5.0, something that came by the end of August. This, as you may have seen on news, is quite a little bit more complicated than expected. It's not really matching the expectation of small, medium enterprises. So it's going to be not as we do expect. This is a reason why we dropped our guidance for the next three months. On top of this, obviously, you can imagine this is a consultant job. So we have people on board for handling this situation. And so we have obviously a very different operational efficiency compared to what we do expect.

So this is within this, if we look at ABF, the results are very disappointing. This is what it is. Obviously, we do expect a better Q3 compared to what was delivered. Still, the local management, I mean, the minority shareholders are still strongly indicating to us a very strong Q4 that is included in the guidance. The level of portfolio of filed files and waiting for the answer is still there. Honestly, the success rate of the files filed is lower than we do expect. So this is the reason why we dropped a bit the guidance on this situation. Obviously, as Pier Andrea clearly stated, the political environment in France is a bit complicated. We already have seen announcements from several companies that are working. So the political economic situation in France is not the best we may expect.

Honestly, we are working with the local management in trying to maximize the results already for the 2024. And then we will share later on what we are going to expect for the 2025.

Aleksandra Arsova
Equity Research Analyst, Equita

Okay. Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Isacco Brambilla, Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Isacco Brambilla
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Hi. Good afternoon, everybody. Some of my questions have already been answered, but I have another two. The first one is on financing. Oddone, if you can recall us following recent moves, how is financing at Tinexta in terms of split variable versus fixed? And if you have any covenant on your current banking debt. Second question is a follow-up on guidance. And sorry if I missed it during the presentation. Could you tell us which is the contribution from ABF included in this year's guidance in terms of EBITDA and revenues compared to the one they included last August?

Oddone Pozzi
CFO, Tinexta

Yes.

Isacco here again. Oddone here. So basically, if you look at the end of Q3, the net financial position is EUR 300 million of net financial position. So the banking debt is in the range of EUR 240 million. And this includes the exercise of the call. It's not including the investment for the last part of the takeover bid on Defence Tech. But then I will elaborate. Then we have almost EUR 100 million debt in put and earn-out and vendor loans. And this, obviously, could potentially be reviewed when we will have the new plans, especially for ABF, that honestly, I think, will be reduced. And the last part, we have almost EUR 50 million debt for lease for the IFRS. And then we have, obviously, more than EUR 100 million in cash and financial receivables. So this is the picture.

If we do include, basically, the additional investment for acquiring the 85% of Defence Tech that has actually happened, almost happened, so we will, on a pro forma basis, if we consider the level of Defence Tech aligned with the guidance expectation, I would say in the range of EUR 9 million-EUR 10 million , as we do expect, the level of indebtedness is going to be 2.7 x the EBITDA on a pro forma basis. So this is the situation. Coming back, the level of covenant is at 3.5 x. So we do not have major issues on this. I have to recall to everybody that, obviously, from now on, that during the first nine months, as well as the guidance that we have, still the level of cash generation is positive.

And we have to consider that this year, InfoCert has invested in a very important way to improve the performance of the quality of service, as well as we have one-off investment also from the building. And if we look at the working capital management, still has been positive. So the drop in terms of cash flow is only driven by the drop in terms of EBITDA. So we have no deterioration of the working capital management. This is very important. So, as I said, we are suffering a small delay, not relevant delay, I would say, in Cybersecurity. And we have to take actions. That is normal to do it, but I feel very confident. On Business Innovation, obviously, the situation of Industry 5.0 was totally unexpected in this way. And still, we are working on it. And obviously, ABF is really disappointing compared to what we were expecting.

But like I said, still, we have in the balance sheet at the end of September, more than EUR 30 million of put that will be then reviewed when we will have the new plan there.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from Russell Pointon, Edison. Please go ahead.

Russell Pointon
Director of Consumer and Media, Edison Group

Good afternoon, Oddone. Josef. I have five questions, sorry. So I'll do a couple first, and then I'll come back on the other two. First of all, in Cybersecurity, I guess it's difficult to tell how you're performing versus the market. So could you therefore talk about what's happened in Q3? Is it there are fewer clients spending with you? Is it the spend per client is going down, or is it both of those? The second question on Business Innovation.

There's a comment in the press release about lower success rates of projects filed in France. So could you give some more insights on that, please? Is that an issue about the quality of the claims going in, or the review has been more stringent? And then back to Cybersecurity, you talked about some efficiency program, I think. So are you just able to give some more details on that, please? They're my first three. I'll come back on the other two if that's okay.

Oddone Pozzi
CFO, Tinexta

Thank you, Russell. Oddone here. So on Cybersecurity, level of incoming orders compared to the budget at the end of Q2 was very promising. But we knew that for delivering the full year, we were still expecting a very strong level of incoming orders during Q3. Unfortunately, like I said, this didn't happen. The size we were expecting is a combination of several factors.

The level of incoming orders on Cybersecurity products was not satisfactory. This is part of the issue. Also, the level of sales in terms of Cybersecurity services is lower than expected. These are the main drivers of the result. On top of that, we have definitely, if you look at the figures in terms of revenue on pure Cybersecurity business, it's lower. On more traditional solution, what we call tech solution we are selling, we are encountering, so basically, less margin on average on the project. It means definitely that it is a less efficient way. Obviously, with a higher level of revenue, we have been able to cover better some costs, and this was driving the situation.

So in Q4, unfortunately, the Q4 will be still a very strong quarter, more or less at the level of previous year. But this is not enough as we are at level of previous year. Now, if we deliver a Q4 that is aligned with previous year, we are not able to deliver the growth that we have in the range of 15% overall. Having said that, we have to take into account that we are talking about a difference of a couple of EUR million EBITDA. We're not talking about a huge difference. We are already working on cost and improving the operational efficiencies as we are also working in trying to reinforce our sales force. So I think I have addressed both the reason why and the efficiency problem. Now I leave to Josef to enjoy this.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

So yeah.

So the part you were asking, Russell, tell me if I'm wrong, on BI, when we say on the press release that ABF has a lower success rate. Is that correct?

Russell Pointon
Director of Consumer and Media, Edison Group

Yeah. That's why. So I guess the question is,

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

Let me explain it better. So what's happening in France is the following, which is we need to be factual against everybody. Obviously, that's our job. And at the same time, we also have to give you the bigger picture, right? So obviously, ABF is not performing as expected. We are disappointed, like just everyone else is on this call, I'm more than sure. But there are some factors behind that. The overall French political situation is, for the very first time, we have to say, in turmoil.

That means that between the Prime Minister and the departments and all the bureaucratic red tape that is there, very similar sometimes to Italy, there have been delays. So when we say lower success rates of different projects, we mean that, let's say, they present, I don't know, 100 projects. This year, they are approved a lower amount of projects given that there are stringent budgets behind it. So it is hopefully a momentary effect because the minute things get cleared out, this, together with all the efficiency that we've discussed about, should go back on track. Now, we need to say and use in an obligatory form the conditional tense, and following whatever the team will give us from France, which they have a much better grip on the local situation, we can definitely have a better picture of where the year is going to end.

What they're telling us is that by the end of the overall year, their contribution in the fourth quarter will still be very strong. We will have to wait and see,

Russell Pointon
Director of Consumer and Media, Edison Group

So just to be clear, Josef, it's constraints in terms of the amount of money available rather than the quality of effectively what you're putting forward to be assessed.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

Correct. So let me give you another example. Let's say that they have allocated X amount. I'm just giving out numbers here. These are just for an example purpose, right? Let's say that the R&D tax credit, whatever, is applied to a certain area of the economy. Let's say that another area is less budgeted, that overall success rate is lower by definition. So again, we hope that this is a momentary effect, and based on that, we will see what happens by the year end.

Russell Pointon
Director of Consumer and Media, Edison Group

Okay.

My other questions, the press release talks about with respect to the share buyback, I think it's 1 million shares, which is just under about 2% of the outstanding shares. But it doesn't reference the maximum amount of capital you're willing to commit under that. I mean, obviously, the share price has taken a hit today. And so could you just talk about, is there a maximum amount you would invest in the share buyback? And obviously, I guess it's kind of linked with the balance sheet as you sound confident with the balance sheet, but I assume you would like to go stronger on the share buyback. Would that be fair?

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

Let's be very clear on the share buyback. First of all, it's a decision of the board. It is to obviously give comfort to shareholders and stakeholders that there is value in the company.

We are investing in the company. This has been excessively asked to myself, to management, to all of us. And we're also responding to market conditions that are, in this case, obligatory. But there are obviously constraints on the percentage of purchases, and we have to follow all the stringent regulation according to Borsa Italiana Code. So first of all. Now, to give you a ballpark figure, we are expecting to invest to buy back up to around EUR 10 million. Okay? So that gives you an overall figure also versus what you correctly said is balance sheet conditions.

Russell Pointon
Director of Consumer and Media, Edison Group

Okay. Thanks, Josef. I'll come back to you on other questions later.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

You're welcome.

Operator

The next question is from Carlo Maritano, Intermonte. Please go ahead.

Carlo Maritano
Equity Research Analyst, Intermonte

Good evening, everyone. I just have two follow-ups. The first one is on the financing.

You described your position also when the deal with Defence Tech will be completed. But I was wondering, what is the blended cost of capital you expect when everything will be completed? And the second one is, again, on ABF. So at the beginning of the year, you expected EUR 37 million of revenues. Then was revised between EUR 25 million and EUR 29 million. I was wondering how much do you expect now, just to have a figure for ABF and to imagine also the EBITDA. Thank you.

Oddone Pozzi
CFO, Tinexta

Thanks. Just a second, Carlo. On ABF, honestly, the range that you mentioned was expected. Honestly, we do expect a little something less, not significantly, is incorporated in this forecast. The management during the board was convinced to be able to deliver this. And so this is what the board of Tinexta also considered to include in the guidance.

In terms of cost of capital, if we go to our EUR 240 million +, we have to add the last EUR 20 million-EUR 25 million we acquired, we do expect to have a cost combined with the old lines, the new lines, in the range of 3.5%-4%. But this is not on the total debt, but it's only on the part of banking debt.

Carlo Maritano
Equity Research Analyst, Intermonte

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

Thank you very much. I'm available to all investors and stakeholders that want to connect.

Oddone Pozzi
CFO, Tinexta

Thank you, everybody. Bye-bye.

Josef Mastragostino
Chief Investor Relations Officer, Tinexta Group

Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephone.

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