Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to Terna's full year 2022 results presentation. As usual, before starting to analyze the features, I would like to share with you the latest main achievements. Regarding the regulated activities in 2022, Terna obtained the approval by the Italian Ministry of Environment and Energy Security and regional councils for 29 projects for a total value of more than EUR 2.5 billion of investments, all aimed at developing the Italian electricity grid, confirming our key role as energy transition enabler. With this, Terna set the new records after exceeding the EUR 1 billion in approved investments in 2021 for the first time in history. In this regard, let me remind you that the company's sustainable investments create value for the country with the positive effects on gross domestic product and also create jobs.
Thus, they help to make Italy become even more crucial within the European system and the Mediterranean hub for electricity. In this regard, at the beginning of 2023, the Ministry of the Environment and Energy Security also launched the authorization procedure for Adriatic Link, in which Terna will invest over EUR 1 billion. The project will connect the Italian regions of Abruzzo and Marche, and will directly or indirectly involve about 120 external partners. Regarding sustainability achievements, Terna is once again confirmed at the top of global sustainability. The company is among the top 1% in Sustainability Yearbook 2023, the leading industry publication for S&P Global that evaluates ESG performances. The score awarded makes Terna the highest scoring company out of the 250 electric utilities analyzed around the world.
This international recognition consolidates Terna's role as direct and enabler of the energy transition towards an increasingly sustainable, safe, and resilient electricity grid. Terna's leadership in sustainability is also underlined by the company's inclusion in several main ESG indexes, the Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index, Euronext Vigeo Eiris, FTSE4Good, the STOXX Global ESG Leaders. Regarding shareholders remuneration, today's board of directors approved and will propose to the annual general meeting the 2022 final dividend of EUR 0.2083 per share to be paid in June, up by 80% compared to the previous year, in line with the communicated dividend policy. The 2022 interim dividend of EUR 0.1061 per share was already paid last November, so the total dividend for 2022 is EUR 0.3144 per share.
Finally, regarding international activities, Latam, the consolidation process is going as planned, confirming the company's broader strategy to refocus its international activities, as already announced in the updated industrial plan. After the brief introduction, let me give you the usual overview of the Italian electricity market, turning to the next slide, number 5. As you can see from this chart, in 2022, national demand was about 317 TWh, recording a decrease of 1% versus last year, when national demand was about 320 terawatt-hours. This modest drop in the electricity demand was mainly the results of milder weather conditions recorded in the autumn and winter months, and the measures to contain electricity consumption and opted by families and businesses. In 2022, renewable sources covered about 1/3 of national demand.
That means the 31.1%. Regarding the national net total production, this is stood at 276 terawatt-hours, 1.3% lower than 2021. Despite that, let me highlight the remarkable increase of the photovoltaic production, which grew by 11.8% versus last year. Moreover, let me also say that in 2022, renewable sources covered about 36% of the national net total production. Now, let's move to the main features of the period at page number 6. In 2022, group revenues and EBITDA were up by 14% and 11% respectively versus last year, which means EUR 360 million and EUR 204 million higher than the same period of 2021. While group net income was EUR 857 million, with a relevant increase of 9% versus last year.
Group CapEx stood at about EUR 1.8 billion, an increase of 16% versus last year, confirming once again the robust CapEx acceleration in line with Terna's institutional role for the country. Despite this CapEx acceleration, at the end of December 2022, net debt was EUR 8.6 billion, versus about EUR 10 billion at the 2021 year end. You can see from the chart, all the main features of the period meet and exceeded the provided updated guidance of the year. Let me also remind you that thanks to the initiatives aimed at further increasing benefits for the system and efficiency, 2022 EBITDA and EPS guidance had already increased back in November during the 2022 nine-month results presentation. Let me just spend a few words regarding the main results registered in these last three years.
Turning to the next slide number 7, the growth path that you can observe in the last years is briefly presented in this chart. In details, 2022 revenues, EBITDA, and EPS grew up by 19%, 14%, and 9% respectively, despite regulatory WACC reduction, while group CapEx registered an increase of about 30%, all compared to 2020 year-end level. As you can appreciate, despite the challenging scenario in which we operated, we were able to significantly increase the investments to serve the system needs and to enable the energy transition while generating value for all our stakeholders. I leave the floor to the CFO, Agostino Scornajenchi, for a deeper analysis of the 2022 figures. To the next slide, number 8.
Thank you, Stefano. Let's start with revenues analysis. Total revenues in 2022 increased by 13.8%, reaching EUR 2,964 million, up by EUR 360 million versus last year. As you can see, we registered positive results both from regulated and the non-regulated activities, which contributed for EUR 289 million and EUR 71 million respectively. For the details of the revenues evolution, let's move to slide 10. Regulated revenues reached EUR 2,542 million, EUR 289 million better than last year, which means about 13% more than 2021. The increase was mainly due to the higher output-based incentive effects related to the higher benefits generated for the system. Non-regulated and international revenues reached EUR 422 million, 20.2% higher than last year.
Non-regulated growth was mainly attributable to the increased revenues of the energy solution, mostly related to LT Group acquired in October 21, and to the greater contribution coming from Tamini and Brugg. International revenues were set above zero in accordance with IFRS 5 accounting standard referred to asset held for sale. Let's go through operating cost analysis, and I am now at page 11. Total operating cost stood at EUR 905 million, 20.7% higher than last year. Regarding regulated activities, the increase was mainly attributable to the insourcing of new competencies and increased level of activity. Non-regulated activities have been impacted mostly by higher raw material purchases related to Brugg and Tamini and by the LT Group contribution. Let me now analyze EBITDA, moving to slide number 12.
Considering the previously mentioned effects, 2022 group EBITDA reached EUR 2,059 million, 11% higher than last year. This increase was mainly attributable to regulated activities, which contributed for about EUR 206 million, showing an EBITDA of EUR 2,007 million in 2022. Let's now have a look to the lower part of the profit and losses, turning to the next slide, page 13. Depreciation and amortization amounted to EUR 726 million. The increase versus last year was mainly due to the impact of new assets becoming operational in the period. As a consequence, EBIT reached EUR 1,334 million, 11.1% higher versus 2021. We reparted net financial expenses at EUR 100 million. The increase versus last year was mainly due to the rise of inflation registered in the period.
Taxes stood at EUR 355 million, EUR 37 million higher versus last year, essentially due to increased profits. Tax rate stood at 28.8%. As a result, group net income reached EUR 857 million, about 9% higher versus the same period of last year. Moving to CapEx analysis, in 2022, total CapEx amounted to EUR 1,757 million, about 16% higher than last year, and confirming the double-digit acceleration highlighted at the beginning of the presentation. Indeed, we invested about EUR 1,668 million in regulated activities. Among the main projects of the period, it is worth mentioning the Tyrrhenian link, the Paternò-Pantano Priolo in Eastern Sicily, and investment in stabilization devices such as STATCOM synchronous compensator for grid security. For what concerns CapEx categories, development CapEx represent 41% of total regulated CapEx.
Defend Capex stood at 16%, while asset renewal and efficiency was 43%. Non-regulated and other Capex stood at EUR 89 million. This included capitalized financial charges and other investments. Regarding net debt and cash flow analysis, let's move to page 15. Net debt at the end of December 2022 stood at EUR 8,576 million. About EUR 1.4 billion lower than 2021 year-end level, mainly due to the hybrid bond issued in February and accounted as equity, as well as the impact of commercial item on the working capital dynamics versus 2021. During the year, we generated an operating cash flow of EUR 1,596 million, thanks to which we were able to cover almost the old Capex spending for the period. Let's now make a deeper analysis of our debt profile. Moving to page 16.
Thanks to our efficient and proactive debt management approach of the last few years, at the end of December 2022, fixed overfloating ratio on gross debt stood at about 87%, while the average duration was about 5 years. Thanks to the strong credit profile, Terna is able to top the financial market at extremely favorable conditions, as demonstrated by the green bond hybrid bond launched in February 2022 for a nominal amount of EUR 1 billion, successfully welcomed by the market. I would also like to highlight that in September, Terna launched a fixed rate single tranche bond through a private placement procedure for an overall amount of EUR 100 million. The notes with a duration of 5 years will pay a coupon of 3.44%.
During the year, Terna also signed four ESG link credit facility agreements for a total amount of EUR 600 million. The credit lines will have a term of 3 years with an inteRES rate linked also to Terna performance in relation to specific ESG indicators. Finally, on November 8th, Terna signed a EUR 500 million contract with European Investment Bank for the financing of the 8th branch of the Tyrrhenian Link. This loan is the first tranche of a total of EUR 1.9 billion approved by the European Investment Bank for the mentioned project. The 22-year loan has a longer maturity and a more competitive cost than those generally available on the market, in line with Terna policy to optimize its financial structure. Thank you very much for your attention.
Before entering in the Q&A session, let me leave the floor to Stefano for his closing remarks. Please, Stefano.
Thank you, Agostino. After this strong 2022 results, I would like to announce the 2023 guidance. In 2023, we expect revenues of EUR 3.11 billion and an EBITDA of EUR 2.12 billion. Earning per share will amount to EUR 0.43 per share. Regarding CapEx for the next year, we expect a figure of about EUR 2.2 billion. This CapEx acceleration foreseen for 2023 is a part of an overall growth process driven by increasing system needs to ensure efficiency, resiliency and security of the supply. Indeed, let me underline that on the 15th of March, we published the new ten-year national development plan, as illustrated in the next slide, number 19. The new national development plan comes in an historic moment in which energy is even more central.
In a phase of rapid and deep geopolitical changes, the energy system has to deal with a series of unprecedented and ambitious challenges. The targets set as a part of the ongoing energy transition will be fully achievable only by developing infrastructures. In this regard, Terna increased the investments foreseen in the new year, development plan, which foresees more than EUR 21 billion of investments, the highest ever, with an increase of about 17% compared to the previous plan. The investments foreseen in the national development plan will be made to continue the integration of renewable sources and the progressive phase out of coal-fired power plants, in line with the targets, set at the national and international level. Moreover, considering the entire life of the projects included in this development plan, behind the 10 years horizon, the total amount of investments will exceed EUR 50 billion.
In conclusion, Terna continues to create value for shareholders and communities through the investments foreseen in updated industrial plan and a strong dividend policy. Despite the extremely challenging scenario in which we operate and the further acceleration of the investments to meet the needs of the system, Terna will remain committed to preserve a solid and sustainable capital structure. As you appreciated from this presentation, Terna was able to present a very good set of results, even exceeding the guidance provided for 2022, in addition with a strong expectation for 2023, demonstrating the commitment on the execution of the plan. Thank you for your attention. We are now ready for the Q&A session.
Thank you, Mr. Speaker. A reminder to the participants, if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone the oppartunity to signal for question. We will take the first question from Stefano Gamberini from Equita. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everybody. Many thanks for the presentation. The first question regarding the 2023 guidance.
Could you help us to understand what is the contribution of the output- based incentives in 2023 that you expect, and also if you can give an idea of what was the level of this output-based incentive in 2022? Considering your guidance up to 2026 to receive EUR 600 million of output- based incentives, and the better 2022 results, the better guidance in 2023, could we expect an increase of this total amount of EUR 600 million? The second question regarding the oppartunity of investment, considering also the trend in renewables, this amount and then the new project that you presented of EUR 11 billion, including the 10-year development plan, are clearly linked to the development of renewables.
Could you give us a picture of the situation for the renewables growth during 2022? What was the level that was reached? What do you expect in 2023? My concern is if we don't have a huge acceleration in renewable installment capacity, you can also have some slippages in the investment in your of your Capex. These are my main... Sorry. The third one is regarding the working capital. In the presentation, at the slide for the cash flow, or the cash flow slide, the number 15, if I'm not wrong, you underlined that there was a positive cash flow working capital effect north of EUR 900 million.
Could we expect a reabsorption of this working capital in 2023, and what is the guidance of net debt next year? Or could we consider this positive effect as a sort of structural improvement that should keep maintain also in the forthcoming years and could help clearly the company in its financial structure to face all the investments that you have in your business plan? Many thanks.
Thank you for your question. I can start to answer to the first one regarding the guidance of 2023, speaking about the contribution, if I understand well, on the these results coming from out put-b ased incentives. This contribution for this year, for the previous year, 2022, is around EUR 400 million on the results, for the 2023 is around EUR 300 million. In the 2022 results, the half part of this 400 is related to the new MCD incentives.
You can see that in our guidance for the 2023, we maintain on a structural position our increase, our results, and is coming from the rules of the incentives that we apply. For the second question, Agostino may add something, but I would.
Yes
W ould like to complete this. For the second question regarding investments on the renewable. Okay. You say what is the behavior of this increase during the last year? Probably we just said this some times ago. During 2022, there was an acceleration, certainly because the normal rate of investment during the last 10 year was about 1 GW per year. Last year was about 3 GW in 1 year, now the rate may be more than this. We suppose that is around 4 and 5 GW this year. What is really impartant that the requests for connections is increased really a lot.
The basis to calculate the next concrete value is completely different from only a few years ago. Consider that 3 years ago, when we started in Terna with this mandate, we had on the table something like 50 GW of total request main on solar plants. Now we are speaking about more than 300, and the other part is for wind generation. We suppose that also with some simplifications of the actual process for authorization, the rhythm may increase. In any case, when you speak about our investment, the impact of this evolution on our investment, let me ensure everybody on this point. We are called to habilitate the system, and the infrastructure has to be made in several years.
You know that when we plan an investment and we are realize it, and we build the new line, it takes between 7, 8, and 10 years. The complete evolution of the network needs several years to be made, and we cannot modulate the speed of our infrastructure by looking to the speed of the increase of RES and of renewable installation. We have to go on for the next 10 years with the national plan, the new one that we have presented. We have some flexibility oppartunity during this plan because we agreed with the authority like a completely new method, the possibility to design project and plan investments that are in any case, paid by authority at this level.
The authority pay our designing, our project, our planning. Also, if we will not realize these systems, if there is something that will change during the next future. Let me give you a simple. Let's suppose that the government, at a certain point, decide to incentivize in the north of Italy, for example, photovoltaic. At the moment, the most part of requests are in south of Italy, but something may change. Also our design of the network may change. If we are going on with the project, we can also change direction. This is specifically related to the fact that every 2 years, we have to redesign the new and update the new plan for the next 10 years. It's to be considered a dynamic design of the network, and we have all the leverage to manage this.
For the third point, I think Agostino may answer. Please, Agostino, can you add something to my first answer?
No, there is not too much to add. Just to precise that the contribution of the MSD output base for 2022 is slightly below EUR 200 million, and this is slightly above EUR 200 million for the year 2023. The total amount, as said by Stefano, is EUR 400 million in 2022, and EUR 300 million in 2023. Moving to your third question regarding working capital dynamics. You know that there is some structural fluctuation in our working capital dynamics due to several so-called pass-through energy items. As you remember, coming from the past, we had some accumulation of working capital due to the uplift mechanism, especially in the immediate timing of the pandemic in spring 2020.
This amount has been reabsorbed in a couple of years, so it has been completely reabsorbed in 2022. During 2022, there was a reduction in the credit related to the uplift, and an increase in the payables related with essential plans for the security of electricity system, which will be reabsorbed in the coming months. There is some fluctuation that is typical for our business, and we do expect that this amount will disappear in the next months.
It is not clear to me what is the situation of both regarding, first, output-based incentives. What I know is the target was EUR 600 million by 2026. You said EUR 400 million in 2022 and EUR 300 million in 2023. The amount is EUR 7 million in two years. Does the target 2026 of EUR 6 million increase to I don't know where? The second, I didn't catch about the answer on the working capital. You had an improvement of EUR 900 million, 2022, probably part also to the previous worsening. What is the amount more or less that you expect to be reabsorbed during 2023? Many thanks.
Yes. Let me start from the second one. The amount that you asked to be expected to be reabsorbed in the coming months is around EUR 900 million to EUR 1 billion. This is the order of magnitude. This is an accumulation of payables for pass-through items that should have been paid by year-end 2022. In order to pay such amount, we have to wait for some specific resolution coming from the authority. The authority did not issue such resolution in time at year-end 2022. That's why we have this additional cash in our pocket. This situation will be managed and settled by the authority during 2023. Coming back to the output-based incentives, yes, of course, your calculation is right. We have an increase in such contribution. We have realized an increasing amount of output-based contribution, especially on MSD.
The original target was EUR 500 million. We increased such target to EUR 600 million. Now we have some additional contribution from output base. That's why we do have EUR 400 million in 2022 and EUR 300 million in 2023. You have to expect something similar also for 2024.
Okay. Clear. Many thanks. Many, many thanks.
You're welcome. Bye-bye.
We will take the next question from Javier Suarez from Mediobanca. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi everyone, thank you for the presentation. Three questions, in addition to the previous one by Stefano. The first one is a high-profile question on the 10-year development plan that you presented, that you recently presented. There is a, and you mentioned that in the presentation, a significant increase in CapEx by 17%, and that is the largest-ever 10-year development plan in Italy. Can you help us to understand the benefit of that business plan for Terna, for the country, and for the European Union?
What is, what has changed as a consequence of the crisis and as a consequence of the lessons that have been learned with the crisis that makes this Capex plan even more impartant for Italy and for Europe? That high-profile question would be extremely inteRESing to see the strategic path for the company during the next 10 years. On the reparting of the company and the numbers of the company, two follow-ups. The first one is on the output-based incentives. You gave the number for 2022 and the expectation for 2023. In 2024 and 2025, can you share with us your late expectation on these output-based incentives?
I think that it has just been mentioned a number similar in 2024 to the one in 2023, so along the lines of EUR 300 million. In 2025, that would be helpful as well. On the working capital thing, can you share with us your expectations for the net debt by the end of 2023? That would be helpful as well. On the new guidance for 2023, there is an element of higher output-based incentives versus maybe previous expectation, a higher deflator as well. Can you elaborate a little bit and to help us to understand these increasing guidance versus consensus expectations, the different building blocks to build up the argument?
The very final question left is on the operational performance of Tamini and Brugg. You can give us an indication if this subsidiary has any contribution to the EBITDA and the expectations for the next years. Thank you.
Thank you for your question. I would like to start from the second one. The contribution of incentives and the MSD methods. Let me clarify that the contribution of the last year and of this year, provided for this year, is absolutely clear and calculated, and so we give to you in terms of numbers, as you see. We have for sure an impact, similar impact on the following year, but we have to, we have first of all, to consolidate the results during this period, and then we can give a number. You have to consider that it's not a one-shot result of this year, over the last year. It's a more structural behavior.
What is really impartant is that at the end of this year, there is an impartant appointment with the regulation, as you know, for the next years. We expect for a modification and maybe an increase of WACC value coming from the observation period, and I have not to explain to you. The mix of possible effects that will impact the next two, three years has to be well calculated during the next months. I think that until the end of this year, it may be possible that we update the plan.
Yes.
More we are near to the final definition of rules with authority, more we are precise on this. Please, let's give us the right time for this. Coming back to the first point, and there is a great question because our development plan for the next 10 years is really, let me say a fantastic news for Italy and for the electricity system in Europe and inside the Mediterranean area. As you can see, we have planned investments for EUR 21 billion. That is, like you said, something like the 70% more than the previous plan of only 2 years ago, that was about EUR 18 billion.
With these investments, we create the possibility for our network to bring something like the double quantity of power from the south to the north of Italy. This is really impartant for several motivations. You consider, first of all, that the benefit cost ratio between this specific plan and the previous is really increased a lot because we have seen 4, 5 x more in terms of effectiveness in the transfer of energy with the same money. The EUR 11 billion that we had with what we name the Hypergrid is a new, completely new technology application.
We think to transfer energy coming on the same corridors that we have on the continent, but by using a different kind of power, let me say, also voltage. We elevate voltage by using the HVDC application that generally we use under the sea connection. It's really impartant because the impact on the environment and the psychologic impact is really reduced a lot. Also, the timing for the timing to build this kind of network is reduced a lot, some years less. Added with some other projects with the undersea connections around our country, we will contribute to solve all the bottlenecks and to increase this energy transmission capacity. It's impartant because in the next years, we will connect also the North to Africa, Tunisia and Sicily.
We will complete the connection between Campania, Sicily, and Sardinia. We also think to realize the second connection with Greece and the second one with Montenegro. On the table, there are only discussion coming on, but it will be a possible modification of next plan in 2, 3 years. We are supposing to connect also Algeria and maybe also Egypt with Italy. In all the community, and I speak about all the TSOs community in North Africa, in the south of Europe and on the Balkans, is discussing around the possibility to manage a different flow of energy from the south to the north. Consider that when you speak about a photovoltaic realized in the south of Italy, you speak about 2,000 hours of productivity.
When you go on the north of Africa, you can have also 3,000 hours. It's a completely different productivity with a reduction of the energy cost at the origin. In terms of renewable evolution, in terms of energy transition, in terms of centrality of Italy and this network in this complete system is really I can say a revolution. Our company is a more a grow company. Is a company that guarantee results and also satisfaction and dividends from shareholders, but it's also a company that has to manage a target that is, at the moment, like a geopolitical target or energy independency and security. I think it's enough to have some informations on this. I can ask to Agostino, if you want.
Yes.
On the third question on working capital.
Yes, again, on working capital dynamics, I can only repeat what I just said, is simply an accumulation of payables, of pass-through items that should have paid by year-end. In order to liquidate such items, we need to wait a specific resolution coming from the energy authority. Such resolution did not come time, we do expect to receive this resolution during 2023. That's why we expect to reabsorb this amount during the coming months. Regarding your last question, if I may, Stefano.
Yeah.
On Tamini and Brugg. Well, contribution of Tamini and Brugg was really positive in terms of revenue generation. Of course, we also have examined a massive increase of cost, especially related to the cost of metals, copper and aluminum that are the raw material mainly utilized by those companies increased a lot. Net-net, their contribution was neutral, but we have a big increase of the pipeline for 2023, and we do have really positive expectation for the result in 2023.
We'll take the next question from Jose Ruiz from Barclays. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. I have three questions, and they are all related to the 10-year development plan. The first question is, in the next update of your Capex plan, can we translate the 17% increase directly into a 17% increase in Capex? Second question, from the 17% increase of the 2023-2032, how much is cost inflation? I mean, we have seen the cost inflation hitting other interconnection projects, for example, Spain and Italy, with cost increases of around 37%. My third question is just the time allocation. The EUR 11 billion Hypergrid project, how much is included up until 2032, and how much is beyond 2032? Thank you very much.
Okay, everything's clear. In our actual industrial plan, that is the 2021-2025, only a few quantity of this increase you will see, because as I explained before, the planning and the construction, our network needs eight, nine, 10 years. The most part of this increase will be on the 2nd part of the plan, so in the 2nd 5 years, let me say. Between 2026, 2027, arriving to 2032, 2030, 2031. Going to the last question, when you say Hypergrid, the EUR 11 billion more that is a part of 21, you have to consider that the complete project is around EUR 50 billion value.
In the first 10 years, because we are obliged to plan only 10 years, because it's an Italian rule that we have to respect together ARERA and the Ministry, we see only the first 10 years with the EUR 21 billion. An impartant part of this 21 are also involving the Hypergrid connections, because we change the priority, and as I explained before, for the Hypergrid, some of these investments are easier than the other, let me say, in terms of construction and authorization and timing. In any case, in a total time of 15 years, we will have an expenditure of about EUR 30 billion. Speaking about the cost inflation, we work in our plan around the 4% in terms of calculation.
Please consider that when we speak on the realization and the on the return on these investments, our rules of regulations consider also the inflection. The inflection for us until certain values is not really a problem, but maybe also an oppartunity. Agostino.
Yes. If I may add, Stefano, of course, there are some specific items when we talk about cables, substation, transformers. There is a lot of pressure in the market for this kind of infrastructure. Of course, there you can also realize that you have to pay even more, okay? Because there is a huge competition, especially on the critical items for the high voltage grid, especially in submarine and underground cables.
Thank you. Very clear.
Thank you.
We will take the next question from Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Firstly, first question on your allowed returns. Will you be in the position to indicate where do you expect your allowed return to be set in 2024, considering the impact of the so-called trigger mechanism, based on the current mark-to-market? My second question, that's a small detail, but it's on your discontinued operations, which generated a loss of EUR 20 million in 2022, is it correct to expect these discontinued operations to be essentially at zero in 2023 since you already divested all of your Latin American assets? I think lastly, if I could ask, do you have plans to organize a capital markets day?
in this year, where you could perhaps provide a more comprehensive earnings guidance for the next five years? Thank you.
Regarding the value for the WACC, we think that looking to the numbers until now, it's possible that it will arrive around 5.5 or something, 5.6, similar to the last value before the decrease of a couple of years ago. But we will see. In any case, our simulation at the moment is around this number. For the third question, the update of the plan, I think that it may be possible before the end of this year. May be inteRESing to stay in this period because it's necessary to better understand the discussion with the authority during the second part of the year.
To give you, starting by the fact that we are working in a really good continuity with an increase of our results, and we see really good, which is the view for 2023. In a certain, let me say, way, we see also a continuity and grow with the 2024. If we have not calculated, but we are in a comfortable condition at the moment, we prefer to understand, which is the discussion with the Authority until the end of the year. We can add on a update of the plan the concrete number for WACC return and for incentive calculated during this year. I think in this period. The second question, if you want, Agostino.
It is correct. We do not expect any relevant positive or negative impact coming from discontinued operation, especially in Latin America during 2023.
Okay. Thank you very much.
We'll take the next question from Davide Candela from Intesa Sanpaolo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, gentlemen, and thank you for taking my question. I have three. The first one, it's a follow-up on the national development plan. I was wondering if the investment included in the plan includes also some offshore wind capacity that should be connected to the Italian grid, if this capacity will come on stream in the next years. Also on this aspect, if it is Terna, the company, that will be in charge for the connection of this kind of plans. Just a more general question on this aspect. The second one is related to the European Commission proposal on the new electricity market design.
I was wondering if you can share with us a general view of your thoughts about the proposal and what could be the role of the TSOs with regards to the new proposal, if this will be approved by the European Commission. Third one, I was wondering if you can share with us some thoughts about your refinancing needs and considering that, if I'm not wrong, you have about EUR 1 billion maturing this year and further EUR 800 million in 2024. Thank you.
Regarding the... Thank you for your question. Regarding the first one, speaking about the plan. When we, when we create the plan, the 10 years plan, we start from needings of the system. Needings of the system, at the moment, is to allow the increase of about 70 GW of renewable, mainly concentrated in the south of Italy and the center of Italy, because this is the actual distribution. When I say 70 GW, we speak about not only solar, but also wind. We are not able to say where it will be realized, but we know that the alpha part of the actual request or connection regarding wind installation offshore and onshore. There is a part of this.
It's impartant to understand that we build a network that is able to transfer this energy from the south to the north, including the islands and international connection. We don't put inside the plan the final connection directly to the, for example, to the wind plant, the offshore wind plant. Consider that to connect 1 or 2 gigawatts plants that is in offshore plants, it's necessary to build a connection that may have a cost of EUR 1 billion. In our plan, there is not this last mile, let me say, of connection. Is not defined who will realize this, because actually is in the end of the proposal, the company or the operator that propose the installation.
In a second moment, maybe that we will be involved with like a service company, let me say, an engineering service company, or maybe possible that speaking with the authority, we will define that, this will be a part of the national grid. This is not a question only in Italy. Is a discussion that is actually also running in other countries. In the North, in the North Sea, they have a choice, a certain model. In United States, they are speaking about another model. It's not ready at the moment, this model. In our plan, you don't see the money necessary to connect the final mile of this these plants, but you see the networks that is necessary to bring all this energy from the south to the north.
On the second point, if you want, Agostino, to say something of the process in Europe for the market.
Sure. There are a lot of discussions that are taking place at European level regarding the reform of the market. There is also some fluctuation. You have seen different position about the inclusion or not of the nuclear generation in IEC framework. There is some forward and stop back on this discussion. I think that the most impartant part of the discussion will be related to the market design, especially in the confirmation or some, let me say, changes in the discipline related to the formation of the price. Today, the system is still a system based on a system marginal price. We all know that system marginal price is highly impacted by the gas price.
You know better than us that this is the elephant in the room, because the more you push on renewable, and that the more you keep this renewable connected with the price of gas, you more will be complicated to reduce the total cost of energy, given that it will remain connected with a specific commodity that you cannot control, at least, that we cannot control.
As Terna, but also as nation, given that we don't have relevant sources of natural gas that we can control, we are obliged to buy. We acquired a lot of gas from Russia, now we have changed the flows. We acquired a lot of gas from other countries, but in any case, we are not talking about our gas. It would be inteRESing to analyze the possibility to disconnect the price of gas for the general price of electricity. There is a positive discussion related the growing impartance on long-term contract. This is something that we do appreciate. I think that both discussion need to be followed, and we will strictly follow those discussion in the coming months.
Related to your third question, related to our refinancing needs, consider that we do expect something like EUR 2 billion in 2023, of which EUR 1 billion of standard bond that will be refinanced, EUR 700 million of inflation-linked bond that finally will expire in 2023, additional more or less EUR 300 million of bank loans that need to be refinanced. Consider additional EUR 1.2 billion in 2024. Let me say that, as usual, we are not suffering any kind of pressure in doing that. We continue to look at the market, not as an obligation, but more as an oppartunity. We have, as said before, very sound debt structure with a relevant amount of debt that is indexed at a fixed rate. Our average cost of debt is still pretty low.
We are in the region of 1.3. Of course, new debt will cost more, but we are really resilient, and we do expect only marginal adaptation of the cost of debt in the coming future.
Okay, thanks.
We will take the next question from Emanuele Oggioni from Kepler Cheuvreux. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everybody, and thank you for the presentation. I have 1 question left about the TOTEX mechanism. I wonder if you could explain or could add more details on based on your understanding now, I know that there are a discussion on that, so all is ongoing. How the TOTEX mechanism after the current regulatory period would impact on the current output-based incentive schemes? Also, still on the TOTEX mechanism, I'm aware that, in my understanding that, each single project of basically CapEx on each single project will be checked and approved by the authority.
In the future, in case of a inflationary environment, maybe a cap will be put on the projects, on the caps for each single project. Is it correct? Thank you.
Well, thank you for the question. I start from the beginning, but I would like to say, the last part, it's not completely correct, and now we explain why. In any case, starting from the beginning, please consider that the TOTEX methods is just now experimented in a certain way by us with Terna, with the MSD methodology. It was created exactly to have an output-based impact that is clear defined at the ex-ante, let me say, before with the authority and create a measurable effect on the system. Consider that during the last year, we created an impact on the final customer of something like EUR 2 billion of reduction of the cost of dispatching.
That is really a huge amount, an incredible amount, if you think that we passed from something like EUR 18 of, cost, period cost to the EUR 0.8, EUR 0.9 over the last period. It's really inteRESing and also authority appreciate a lot because this is the first experiment, concrete experiment in Italy for a first, approach on output basis and TOTEX. On the second, argument that you say, I ask to Agostino, if you want to explain better the TOTEX, approach for the future that we provide.
Yes, Stefano. Thank you. I've said several times, it is a progressive switch from a full input-based principle from which you are paid on the basis of what you spend, basically, and an output base, as said by Stefano. You will receive increasing contribution in propartion with the benefits that you will create for the system. This is the principle of the output base, and the TOTEX mechanism will be applied on this base. You have already seen this happening in our business plan and in our actual figures.
You remember that we started with an output-based contribution in the previous business plan of EUR 200 million, increased it to EUR 444 million, increased it to EUR 500 million, increased it to EUR 600 million. Today, we have declared, we have just declared that you can expect something more also for the future. What the authority will do to measure, if the question is will the authority start to measure 100% of the single projects, we do not expect this. We more expect a sort of mixed regime, which we will have a sort of base remuneration still managed through an input-based approach, so an average WACC on invested capital. On top of that, some output-based contribution starting from the biggest project. Why the biggest project? Because the biggest project will be the easiest to be measured.
As the MSD experiment is a big project, it's easy to measure, show a positive contribution, and the authority gave us the possibility to retain a partion of this additional marginality and the huge benefit for the community explained by Stefano. This is the way we see this. Having said that, there is an open discussion. The authority will issue some resolution in the second part of the year, and of course, we will keep you updated on this process.
Very clear. Thank you.
Question from Bartek Biskupiak.
Thank you very much. Good evening. Just 2 remaining issues from my side, please. Firstly, on your regulated OpEx, excluding IFRIC, the OpEx increased by 15% year-on-year in 2022. I just wonder what the dynamics in the OpEx could be in 2023, given that your employment keeps rising, and consequently, whether the regulator will take into consideration all the OpEx increase in the next regulatory period. That will be the first one. Secondly, on the plan again, in my opinion, the plan is very much based on large projects.
Consequently, I just wonder if you are thinking about having partners in some of the projects as well, or whether there is a risk that the regulator may introduce some kind of a competition into the model so that other players would also be allowed to build such massive projects. Thank you very much.
Agostino, would you like to start with the first question?
Yeah, sure. It's true, there is an increasing amount of OpEx for 2022. There is some, say, non-recurrent item as extraordinary items related to dismissal of personnel. We have some dismissal plan that has been accounted for competence already in 2022. In any There is also some specific external communication cost related to a webcast advertising and TV advertising that is part of a specific agreement with the energy authority. All these costs will be recovered by the tariff in a normal way.
Thank you, Agostino. Speaking about the second point, no, it's inteRESing your hypothesis, but we don't think to proceed in this direction. Until now, our idea is to continue to be the only company, the monopolist of the network in Italy. We are absolutely sure for the next 10 years to be able to sustain this kind of a plan also on the financial point of view. We have solutions, and we have space for this. Maybe only inteRESing to have technological partners in the future. This is another topic, another point regarding the great difficulties around in the world coming from the increase of the total amount of investments in networks, in the transpart and network in Europe specifically, but not only.
It's impartant to define a good approach on the, let me say, technology, part, cables or transformers and so on, components, accessories, it's impartant to define which is the right way to proceed, to find possible cooperation. In terms of management of the network and property of the network, no, I think no chance.
Thank you very much.
It appears that there is no further question at this time. I will leave the floor to the CEO and the CFO to say goodbye.
Thank you to everybody. Thank you.
That concludes today's event. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.