Welcome to the Acerinox third quarter 2024 results conference call. My name is Borja Riestra, and I am part of the IR department. Today, the call will be conducted by Miguel Ferrandis, the Chief Corporate Officer, Esther Camós, Chief Financial Officer, and Carlos Lora-Tamayo, our Investor Relations Director, and now also the Communication and Reporting Director. As we normally do, after the presentation, we will open the line for questions. Let me remind you that this conference call is being broadcast on our website, acerinox.com. Now, I would like to hand you over to Miguel. Please, Miguel, go ahead.
Thank you, Borja. I shall try to make some general comments on the first slides of the presentation. Then Carlos shall give a color of the actual market situation. And finally, our CFO, Esther Camós, should give a detailed explanation of all the figures involved in the quarterly and yearly figures. If we go to the first slide, Q3 2024 at a glance, the title for this slide should be "Resilience." Clearly, in the first statement, what appears is the consistency in a quarterly EBITDA, despite the challenging market conditions. And these challenging market conditions are what we must keep in mind. Two years ago, in 2022, we experienced a fabulous performance in our sector. So all the companies were having peak profit records. We too. At this time, let me bring back the statement of President Kennedy when he said that a rising tide lifts all the boats.
So this is what took place at that time. So the demand was overperforming. So all the industry obtained huge profits. In our case, we were the most profitable player. And we reported also the highest margins among the industry. But at the end, the excellence is to keep on sailing when the low tide, and especially when others run aground. And this is exactly what actually is taking place. We are reporting these quarterly figures of EBITDA of EUR 114 million for accumulated year-to-date EBITDA of EUR 350 million. But this has been achieved in the most challenging market conditions. We don't go back for the latest crisis of the COVID years. We need to go back 15 years in the huge financial crisis for reaching equivalent levels of demand in Europe in the year 2009, or in America in the year 2011.
In these circumstances, in the worst and toughest market, we are able to achieve in nine months EUR 350 million. This is in line with the cycle we were sailing not many years ago. And I think it's an excellent demonstration of what we have been able to achieve. In addition, we were the highest profitable player in the good days. But also, in this 2024, as you know, we have been among the industry, the player reporting higher profits and also higher margins. In addition to this, the second comment is related to the specific circumstances in the Q3. It's clear that probably it's not so relevant as it's fully spoiled or influenced by the circumstances of the starting up of our plant in Acerinox Europa, after five months stopped by the strike. And consequently, it has had a strong influence on the increase in inventories.
We have needed, obviously, to normalize the inventories through all our distribution, as well as in the increase in customers as the consequence of the startup of the activity, so this is clear that there's a consequence of that. On a purely quarterly basis, we have increased our own capital EUR 122 million. This issue is neutralized when we analyze the nine months, and obviously shall be also neutralized in the coming fourth quarter, so the third quarter is distorted by this fact, but should be understood under that basis. In the third quarter, also, we have made the announcement that we have finally reached an agreement for selling Bahru Stainless, and the selling shall take place during the fourth quarter. In this regard, three years ago, we were stating that Bahru Stainless was not core business anymore.
In May, we announced that we were stopping production and that we were looking for better options for Bahru Stainless. In this regard, we have prioritized our running plant, as well as our customers and our suppliers. So we have prioritized the best option for our stockholders. And also, three years in Europe with the administration and jurisdiction has taken a while. So in this regard, we have needed to go through foreign direct investment in Italy, in France, in Spain. In addition, we have needed to obtain antitrust approval in Spain, also in the U.K., and Austria. The one in Spain was already achieved. Fortunately, last week, we have obtained the final clearance in the U.K., and we are only pending in Austria. So it seems that our lawyers and advisors are confident that in the coming weeks, also, this could be achieved.
So consequently, we still consider that the completion date should take place in the year 2024 and probably in the fourth quarter. Regarding to the outlook, it's clear that as a consequence of what we are facing in the market, the seasonal slowdown of our most profitable contributors, which is the stainless in America and the high-performance alloys, the seasonal slowdown of the fourth quarter normally makes that this contribution shall be lower. In addition, with still the uncertain situation taking place, the weak momentum also in the European market, and the very depressed demand, what we clearly assume is that the adjusted EBITDA of the Q4, sorry, shall be lower than that of the Q3.
But having said that, it's clear that due to the effect and the contribution to our results of the sale of Bahru Stainless, the EBITDA reported in the Q4 by far shall be the highest of the year. So this is something, obviously, to keep in mind. And as I said before, we expect that the working capital shall be normalized, as well as the net financial debt as a consequence of that shall also be neutralized in the fourth quarter, most of this increase that already has been taking place. So this is the Q3 at a glance. If we move to the ESG definition of this slide, in our case, clearly it should be committed. We are by far fully committed with the ESG. And in this regard, we are proud of the outstanding performance that we are achieving in several areas.
It's clear that in terms of the circular economy, not only most of our production in stainless is coming for recycling scraps, but also we have obtained 100% recycling of all the consumables. This is something to reinforce. In addition, we are also achieving more than expected valorization of all the waste reduction. This is an area that also we are overperforming, as we are by far overperforming in terms of the water withdrawal. In all these areas that at the end are more absolute parameters and indicators, we are overperforming, and we are proud of that. We cannot be so overperforming in those parameters which are related to production. At the end, when we refer mostly to energy as well as to emissions, our baseline taking, as is indicated in the slide, is the 2015 year.
In the 2015 year, we were running our operations at 87% capacity utilization. In this year 2024, January to September, we are running at 65%. By the nature of our business, by the nature of our plants, it's clear that it's not possible to keep the ambitious targets we have running at such low-capacity utilization. As an indication in the full year 2015, the baseline, the production was 2.3 million tons. In this year, January to September, we are up to now in 1.3. So, this is the clear explanation for why in those areas still we put as our red dot, and this is something that gradually is improving. Keep also in mind in terms of energy, for example, and renewable energy, that our plant who is more active on renewable energy is the plant of Spain that has been closed for more than five months.
So as much as this has been put on stream in the quarter and gradually it's increasing productivity, we shall be obviously improving also our indicators in the energy parameters. In addition to this, we have been also going through substantial initiatives that appear also in the slide. Obviously, the most relevant ones are, for example, the carbon footprint verification in Acerinox Europa. In addition, also in the water, following the Water Mandate agreement of the United Nations. This is an area that also in this quarter has been relevant, as well as all the projects we are participating for the proper use of our sites. For example, also yesterday, we were awarded by sponsoring the ESG criteria in most of our suppliers. So these are areas in which we specifically have been clearly focused in this year.
One area that we have also improved, compared with last year, which is a relevant area, is safety. In regard to safety, we have experienced a 5% reduction compared with last year. Our target is much more ambitious, and as you know, the target is a reduction of 26%. We also think that it's remarkable that we have reduced this 5% compared with the last year, especially in view of the circumstances that are coming in production, so when the plants are running full, obviously, it's less risk of potential incidents occurring. All these incidents that have occurred this year mostly are related to minor injuries. It's cutting hands or fingers or some minor damages, but this is a consequence of the constant up and down in production, stopping production, closing partially part of the lines, obviously the five-month strike, and then the reactivation of the production again.
In this year, in which has been such a big number of manual utilization or starts and working the equipment on a manual basis for adjusting, for putting in the stream or closing it, this is where these incidents have been taking place more than expected. And we are working also for reducing all of these incidents for the coming years. If we move to the following slide, I apologize to Carlos and Esther, my colleagues, in this presentation for today. But if I should choose one slide for today's presentation, this should be the slide. I think it's the most relevant slide to try to understand. The title of this slide should be Strategy, Strategy, and Strategy. And at the end, these are relevant milestones that have been taking place during the year.
In addition to sailing, as we have been mentioning, that we are sailing successfully in these challenging times. In addition, we are keeping the expansion plans in North American Stainless, as well as VDM Metals. All of them are on schedule. But in addition, we have passed through three key milestones. So we cannot be purely waiting for the market to recover. In addition, we are by far focusing our strategy on three key areas. In those, as they appear in the slide, first of all, I want to talk about Acerinox Europa. Acerinox Europa finally has implemented the bargaining agreement for the implementation of a new business model for the plant. And that was needed. So it's clear that there has been a painful passing through a five-month strike that has been painful for everyone. Obviously, this has been spoiling the profitability of the company.
But I want just to make some comments regarding the history of Acerinox. Those veterans, as myself, even though coming for the second generation, always having keeping in mind what has been the history of Acerinox Europa. They have been two long strikes in Acerinox Europa, in its 54 years of history. The first one took place in the year 1977. And that was as a consequence of the implementation of a new salary system in which 40% of the salary was to be variable according to productivity and quality of the production. The implementation of that system created a three-month strike. But finally, the system was implemented. So as I told before, we always remember the story taking of our veterans of how terrible it was facing a three-month strike and shut-off production.
But what is clear is that the implementation of that model created a period in which, for 30 years, Acerinox, the plant in Campo de Gibraltar, was the reference plant, the fully integrated plant, and the most competitive plant in the world. And it worked. So it was a painful strike also, but at the end, established the basis for a proper running of the plant for the following 30 years. It was successful not only for the company, but also it was also successful for the workforce as the continuous increase in productivity of our plant allowed them to have a compensation which is above that proper, not only of the area, but also of the industry in Spain. But the world changed. And then therefore, the world has changed in the last 10 years or in the last 15 years due to the several known circumstances.
And then we need to readapt again. So what was needed was to implement a new business model bringing especially flexibility and being able to prepare to working in these mini cycles that actually are taking place sometimes quarterly. Sometimes there are even cycles or different cycles during a quarter. So we needed to provide a new system which allows us to work in more flexible basis, the plant, as well as changing the trend in moving to more customer-centric base, approaching a better market share for final customers, as well as avoiding more commodities standards and focusing on high-value-added products. So it was needed to implement that.
At the end, this flexibility brings us or our workers the availability to be called, depending on the market circumstances and demand, the versatility to work on different parts of the plant, which also is something extremely relevant, as well as an hours pool that also could be used in a special target of training that flexibility. At the end, the agreement includes all these areas. So we are very confident that with these new circumstances for the company and for the workers, we have developed the proper system for we are running successfully Acerinox Europa in the coming years. In addition to this milestone, as we mentioned, we have been focusing. We worked most of last year, as you know, on making the analysis and the study for Haynes acquisition. And we announced the deal in the 5th of May. We are clearly prioritizing the expansion in America.
For us, as you know, we always have been stating that this acquisition for us is a AAA investment. AAA means spending in America, spending in alloys, because we clearly addressed that the area to grow more and expand is in the high-performance alloys division, as well as AAA for aerospace, because in our high-performance alloys division, we are more exposed to other areas such as oil and gas and such as chemical process industries, but especially aerospace was a target area to be placed. As a consequence of that, we went through and we raised and finally made an offer to acquire Haynes that was accepted, and with this, we position ourselves in the top of the pyramid of high-value-added products. The integration is obviously waiting for whenever the completion can be done.
We are working, in any case, in the meantime in those areas that we are able to work. It's critical that obviously until finally obtaining all the antitrust, we cannot enter in certain areas, but we are preparing all the works for a proper finance integration. We also have the clean teams for working and special designing the future CapEx that shall bring most of the synergies of this deal. So we are making all the preparation works for that, but we are very impatient for starting working all together. In this regard, the Acerinox board of administration that took place last week in Kentucky was invited, and it was done a courtesy visit to Haynes.
We visited the facility of Haynes at Kokomo, as well as we have a proper explanation of all the research and innovation areas in Haynes, as also having a courtesy first meeting with all the management. Obviously, not only ourselves as the management team, but also our board is very excited and very impatient for finally reaching the proper integration and start working all together. The third milestone that has been achieved in this year is the final sale of Bahru Stainless, as I mentioned before. At the end, it's clear that we have failed on making a profitable business operation in Malaysia.
In this regard, as far as I previously mentioned a quote of President Kennedy, as we are in the presidential elections week in the States this year, having mentioned a quote of a Democrat president, let me bring a quote of a Republican president on fair value, and this one probably should be that one of Theodore Roosevelt. It's hard to fail, but it's worse to never have tried to succeed. We tried. We tried to make a state-of-the-art running plant efficient and profitable in Malaysia, but we have not been able to succeed there. Why? Because at the same time that we were putting that plant on stream, it was then decided, the ban in Indonesia, a ban on exporting raw material.
And consequently, huge and massive investments by Chinese groups have been done in Indonesia for transforming the nickel pig iron, the dirty nickel being refined for obtaining stainless steel slabs. And Indonesia moved from a production of 300,000 tons to a production of 5 million tons. So this has changed the status quo of the stainless world all over the world. And the rest of the world has been exposed to that in the last decade. But obviously, the ones who have suffered more. That issue has been the neighbor countries and especially those in the area. And in this regard, it was almost impossible to keep a reroller in Malaysia being profitable. So it didn't make sense to expand through a melting shop in Malaysia. But obviously, just remaining a reroller for us also was not core business.
So as a consequence of that, as I stated before, we have looked for the best option. And the best option for our stakeholders and the best option also for the group has been closing this deal. And we understand that in the remainder of 2024, everything shall be settled. As a consequence of this, we shall focus on our core markets. It's obvious that our core market in these days is going to be the Western world. It's going to be the Western world for high-value-added stainless. It's going to be the Western world also for our high-performance alloys. And also getting advantage of having such a flexible and polyvalent plant as is that one of Columbus Stainless. So we are back to basic, concentrating in these core markets for ourselves. Should you explain market, Carlos?
Yes. Thank you, Miguel. Let's move now to explain the challenging market that we are living in. Maybe first, as a way of introduction, remind you that both the stainless-steel market and the high-performance alloys market depend on the economic cycle. Unfortunately, today is not the best time for the cycle. Maybe just the opposite. We are living probably in the low part of the cycle. As a reference, you can see in the slide that we include the manufacturing PMI. The data for September is the lowest of the year in Europe and is the sixth consecutive month of contraction in America. So this gives you a sense of how poor the economy is today. But how is reflected all of this in the stainless-steel market? Well, the apparent consumption declined last year 20%, both in Europe and the US. And this year, it's declining even more.
This year, we are seeing a decline in the U.S. of 1% and a decline in the European market of 0.5%. If we compare the estimates that we have for external consultants for the year 2024 with pre-COVID levels, the year 2019, we can realize that the apparent consumption will decline about 17% in the U.S. market and 20% in the European market. As we are commenting, very weak and extraordinary and hopefully temporary momentum than the one that we are living in. On the positive side are the inventories. Inventories in hands of big distributors are very low, well below the normal average, both in Europe and the U.S. In the U.S., are 21% below the normal average, while in Europe are 13% the normal average. Imports this year are moving up in the United States.
It's mainly imports of commodity grades in which we don't have a very big exposure. Probably our peers have more exposure and suffer a bit more than us in this sense. In Europe, in the third quarter, went up as well imports, but are well below the previous years, are below 20%, 18%, so well below the previous years. Where we can find more differences is in the market prices. Prices, base prices in both markets in Europe and the U.S. are more or less stable quarter on quarter. But we were able in the U.S. to maintain this stability at a reasonable level, while in Europe are in a very low level. Okay. So to sum up in the stainless-steel market, the short term is very challenging.
But we are fully confident that this will revert and we will benefit from a recovery in the demand, not only due to the inventory levels are very low, but also, as Miguel explained before, because we did our homework and we have a very solid and clear strategy. If we move to the high-performance alloys market, the demand remained solid. On the positive side, we highlight the oil and gas and chemical process industry. And maybe on the other side, highlight the aerospace industry. You know that today we are not very active in this aerospace industry, but we will be when we complete the Haynes acquisition. Hopefully, all the disruptions that this sector is living today will be solved by the time that we acquire Haynes International. And now I would like to give the floor to Esther, who is going to explain the results.
Thank you, Carlos. Thank you, Miguel. Okay. Let's talk now about the consolidated group results. If we first start by looking at the quarters, we had a first quarter with an EBITDA of EUR 111 million, a second quarter with EUR 125 million, and a third quarter of EUR 114 million, which once again proves the resilience of the group in the adverse market circumstances where we are. In terms of margins, we achieved a 7% margin in quarter one, 10% in the second quarter, and we are still in 9% in the third quarter. It is important to mention that this 9% has been achieved, and it's two points higher than first quarter, even though the alloy surcharge, especially in America, has been going down month by month in this third quarter.
Even though there are no significant changes in the EBITDA, looking at the quarters, the profitability in the quarter has been marked, and it's important to mention, by two factors. The first one is a weaker demand than expected in the American market. The second one is the increase of activity for the group in Acerinox Europa after the five months of strike. In this sense, it is important to remark that the operations have been run and started without any incident. We have not had any failures, but we need to still highlight that the weak demand in Europe continues to be a fact, especially in stainless, not really in high-performance alloys, where it is a more long-term market and therefore more stable and solid in this period. Going to the nine months, we have achieved an EBITDA of EUR 350 million.
We think we are in a unique position in the sector. And to prove that, I just want to go back to history. And remind you that we are in a level of demand self-production similar to what we had in 2009. And remember that 2009 was the only year in history where Acerinox had negative EBITDA at the group level. Now we are in a range of in the EUR 350 million . And this EUR 350 million has been for those ones that follow Acerinox for many years. This has been like through the cycle EBITDA not so long ago. Another point to remark is the net financial debt. We have ended September with a net financial debt of EUR 453 million, which possibly for some of you might think that this is a high level or an unexpected level.
But just to highlight that this is caused by a temporary extraordinary effect due to the ramp-up of Acerinox Europa and the consequence of the increase in the working capital that we later will explain. But definitely, we expect a reduction in the net financial debt for the fourth quarter. Going to stainless, and let's start by productions. Okay. If we look at the productions, we will see that there's been a significant increase of 90,000 tons from quarter two. Okay. And this is due to the ramp-up after the strike. We needed to fill in all the supply chain, the group supply chain in Europe. And that has caused for the quarter an increase in inventories and the consequent impact in the operating cash flow that we will mention later. But this is, again, we think it is a temporary factor that will be solved in the fourth quarter.
It's just a question of filling in all the supply chain. In terms of sales, okay, they remain very similar as the levels of quarter two. Okay. And this is, again, due to the weak demand, the seasonality, and the low recovery after the summer. In terms of prices, and that's another point to remark, we are keeping base prices stable also in America and in Europe. We have mentioned it several times. It's part of the strategy just to sacrifice volumes but keep the prices. And this is, again, what we are doing, even though I think this is amid the especially weak demand that we are suffering in this period. And this allows us to keep the margins stable in a 9% and even better than what we got in the third quarter of 2023.
If we look at the year-to-date figures, the EBITDA for the stainless have been EUR 258 million, which is lower than what we got in 2023. But again, this has been affected by the five months of strike in Acerinox Europa. In terms of operating cash flows, we had in the nine months, we had a positive cash flow, operating cash flow of EUR 97 million. Again, this has been affected by this quarter and the ramp-up again of Acerinox Europa with the increase of inventories already mentioned to fill in the supply chain and some also in customer due to the increase of sales in Europe. But again, expected to revert in quarter four. Going to high-performance alloys, the situation is different than what we have explained for stainless. There's a good and stable level of demand, especially in sectors like oil and gas, chemicals, electrics, not really in aerospace.
But as you know, this is not the main market for VDM, so this has not had an impact in our case. The other book is stable also in terms of volumes and in terms of margins. It is true that there is an absence this quarter of the tailwinds of the nickel effects. Okay. Remind you that last year we had a very positive effect on that, and we have been remarking this all the time. Okay. This is something that allowed us last year to have the best results ever in high-performance alloys. Okay. And currently, this is being neutral this year. Okay. For the third quarter, we are having a slightly lower EBITDA than in the second quarter, but it is due to the seasonality and the reduction of production normally that we had in the month of July due to the holidays.
In the nine months, we are achieving an EBITDA of EUR 93 million. And here, I just want to remark that before we bought VDM, the biggest result that they ever had in history and the best one was in 2019 when they got an EBITDA of EUR 96 million. We are now achieving EUR 93 million in nine months. And the last thing to remark is the operating cash flows. The operating cash flow, VDM has achieved a positive operating cash flow in the nine months of EUR 106 million and positive also in this quarter of 2022. And going to capital allocation and net financial debt. Okay. As mentioned, one of the main factors in the quarter has been the increase in the working capital already mentioned due to the ramp-up of Acerinox Europa and mainly focus on the increase of inventories. This is an extraordinary temporary effect, as already mentioned.
Other factors, other important things in the quarter has been the payment of the dividend of EUR 77 million, and I think it's very important to mention here the impact of the conversion differences of 71 millions. Okay. This is a pure accounting effect, okay, due to the cash deposits that we have in the States. You know that part of our strategy is keeping big deposits in the US. The exchange rate was at 1.12. Actually, it's 1.08. So this is just a reference to explain that probably this effect would revert if the exchange rate continues in the same rate as they are today. Okay. But it's a purely accounting effect. It's not a cash out. Okay.
In terms of if we go to the nine months, okay, we see that the operating working capital, the increase is much lower than what we have had this year, and we expect it to be positive in the 12 months. We have also in the nine months payment of taxes of EUR 93 million, which again shows the contribution of Acerinox to sustainability and also the profitability of the group, which means paying taxes there where you have the profits. In terms of CapEx, possibly you might expect it, and we have guided you to maybe a higher CapEx than what we have had in the nine months.
Here, I think important to mention that we expect due to the strike, we have also postponed some payments, but we expect the fourth quarter to have a stronger CapEx than what we have had in the third, first quarters, and we possibly will end in a range of EUR 200 million CapEx. Okay. We have the payment of dividends of EUR 154 million, and then the conversion difference, as you see in the nine months, is much lower. All of it has made the debt to increase in EUR 112 million, which is, as Miguel mentioned, also we expect to reduce it in the end of the year. And you conclude, Miguel.
Okay. Yeah. The title of this slide should be the end. At the end, fortunately, we are now going quick to the Q&A. But having said that, let's repeat again some of the key messages of today's presentation.
First of all, the results obtained. The resilient EBITDA is something clearly to reinforce. We are obtaining an equivalent figure of that one, which was the average through the cycle four or five years ago. And in addition, we are the best in class in our industry. So we are having the best in class in the good days. We are the best in class in the tough days, such that of today. We are not specifically concerned about the increase in net financial debt up to September. This shall be neutralized. Obviously, we are focused, and we have a strict and clear discipline for our working capital. This shall appear in the fourth quarter, so it shall be solved easily. In addition, in terms of the shareholder return, in these days, we are having a remarkable 7% dividend yield.
I also want to remind that during our history, we always have or maintained or increased the dividend. Never ever we have stopped paying dividend or canceling the dividend. So at the end, this is something obviously clear in terms of our policy and regarding shareholders, and thinking on the outlook, it's clear that we have not a clear visibility in the stainless for the coming quarter. The market is going to remain tough, and we assume that the situation in HPA is much more stable, and this is, as we always have been stated, one of the beauties of moving to high-performance alloys is facing different cycles. In the low cycles of stainless, the cycles of the alloys are different, and consequently, we are also benefiting from that in these days. Regarding the Haynes acquisition, we are impatient, and let's hope that everything shall be closed soon.
And during the Q4, we can announce the closing of the deal. And regarding the outlook, the Q4 EBITDA shall be the highest of the year as a consequence of the sale of our stainless. The purely adjusted EBITDA, as a consequence of the market circumstances, as we have been repeating and repeating today, shall be lower than that of the Q3. And we shall neutralize that increase in net debt and probably keeping for similar levels of that one of last year. And probably this is most of the comments we wanted to convey to you. Thank you for your patience. And now let's go to the Q&A session.
Thank you very much, the three of you. P erfect. Yes, please. Go ahead.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please do so now by pressing star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas. Tristan, please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my question. I'd start with two. First, on the U.S., we've seen the U.S. pricing premium over Europe decline quite a bit year to date. What has been the main driver of that? Is that supply? Is that demand? And do you still believe the U.S. should trade at a premium on a normalized basis? And if you could also tell us how much of that weakness we've seen in the U.S. is tied to the election. And once we get past the election, would you expect some restocking once buyers get more visibility?
Okay. Thank you, Tristan. As we commented during our presentation, prices in the U.S. remain stable quarter on quarter, base prices. Okay. The other thing is the transaction price that, due to the decline in nickel price and consequently the alloy surcharges, it's moving down. But base prices remain stable. No, we experienced some slight decline at the beginning of the year, but then we managed to maintain it as stable. It's true maybe that the alloy surcharges impact faster in the US than in Europe. And this is why maybe you have this sense that the gap in prices between both markets is squeezing. But the base price that at the end of the day is what gives us the margin, we managed to maintain it stable.
The demand side, would you expect some restocking after the election, or do you think most of the demand weakness is tied to something more structural and not necessarily temporary?
Not structural. I think probably it's a temporary fact. Every four years, the election time always provides some additional uncertainty. This actually is taking place. It's taking place in addition to depressed demand. As Carlos has stated previously, last year, the decline in demand was around 20%. This year still is a slightly negative figure. This is a fact that is there. For us, it's temporary. At the end, it's a similar phenomenon in Europe and in America in terms of demand. So it's not the whole Western world where the industry is disappearing. But what is clear is that there are different facts that are affecting the market.
But we understand clearly that this is temporary challenges, and at the end, it shall recover. The rhythm of that recovery still is pending to determine. We are actually negotiating with our main customers for the coming year, so it still is a bit premature. Let's see how it works. As Carlos mentioned before, everything is properly based for a quick reaction. Whenever the demand wakes up, the recovery is necessary. The stocks shall normalize. The end-user consumption shall react very quickly. But this still is pending to come. We understand that this may come during 2025, mostly in the States, which is where we have more visibility or especially more dialogues with the final customers and so on. It's understood that it shall be coming, but probably it's not going to be a radical change from the Q1. It's something that probably shall be coming during the year.
So in this basis, at this time, our best approach to the market, mostly in America, is that it's going to be a transition year, but gradually during the year.
Maybe just one thing is that the fourth quarter, as you may know, Tristan, is by seasonal reasons the weakest of the year with Thanksgiving, Christmas, and so on. So maybe it's a bit soon to see a restocking, at least a big restocking in this fourth quarter of the year. And as Miguel mentioned, we should wait until 2025, at some point in 2025, to see this progressively reactivation of the upper end demand.
Okay. That's very clear. My second question is also on the demand side, and also in the US, the aerospace weakness. You mentioned obviously the supply disruption that we've seen. Can you remind us what's the percentage of aerospace currently for the HPA division?
And then when you look at Haynes, where it's a bigger chunk of demand, obviously, how do you see the operation up there? Does that put into question the EBITDA target? Last time, we got a big disruption in the aerospace industry. I think it was during COVID, and then it took some time for the space to recover. So how are you looking at this?
Well, the aerospace in our HPA business accounts for probably less than 10%. So as we commented, we are not very, very active, but we are more exposed to the European market than to the U.S. market. So probably we are at least less affected than others in this sense with these disruptions that are suffering in the sector.
In this regard, the aerospace, as Carlos says, is around 10% in today's structure of our production. Clearly, one of the goals for us to grow in the States through Haynes is moving more on the aerospace, so on this basis, as has been stated in the quarterly results made by Haynes during the year, this is something that obviously actually is affecting the profitability of these days, but at the end, let's keep in mind that what Boeing is experiencing these days is clearly a momentum effect, and probably these delays at the end shall be accompanied by higher orders for the coming years.
So as much as our plan and clear strategy is long-term oriented to develop this business and expanding in the States, it's clear that all these delays that have been affecting the 2024 and maybe the start of 2025 at the end shall be moved to higher demand in a later stage whenever we are not only fully integrated, but also obtaining the synergies and with additional capacity of the CapEx on plan. So on our strategy, this is nothing to be concerned about.
Okay. That's very clear. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Ioannis Masvoulas with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Thank you very much for the presentation. A few questions from my side. And I'll start with a follow-up to Tristan's question around the U.S. alloys exposure that will increase post-Haynes. What's your sense in terms of potential for a more gradual recovery in the aerospace? How would that impact your production targets and some of the investments you're planning for Haynes? And ultimately, could it lead to a slower realization of your synergy target? Thank you.
Thank you, Ioannis. The synergies achieved after the expansion phase announced for Haynes and all the CapExes that have been already stated that are going to take place there are CapEx that shall be put on stream for the years 2028, 2029, 2030. On this basis, the actual momentum and the disruptions that is actually taking place in that space due by the temporary issues affecting Boeing is something that we are absolutely comfortable that shall be solved for that time. This is not meaning for us a change of our views for those days.
On the contrary, as I previously said, we understand that these delays taking place in the 2024 shall move to further increasing the order books for that period. So we keep on fully convinced and committed that our target for introducing us more in the aerospace industry is the strategy to follow.
Thank you for that. Second question, just turning to Europe. So your commentary of the Q2 results suggested that the Spanish plant would be EBITDA positive by the end of Q3, which doesn't seem to have materialized. What's your weakness there? Because my sense is that European demand hasn't really deteriorated over the past two, three months. It's probably stable at low levels. Some color there would be very useful. Thank you.
It's true that we understood when we, yes, we're coming back to activity. We understood that gradually during the quarter, we could be able to reach certain positive figures, mainly in September. But the situation probably has not allowed that to take place yet. First of all, still the market remains being very weak. And in addition, it's true that after five months of a strike, we have not lost customers. And especially, we have not lost the target customers we already face ourselves to be supplying to. But in these very weak demand days, we are not obtaining orders for the remainder of the year because our customers mostly have focused on the suppliers for keeping their necessities. So in this dormant demand, the normalization for Acerinox Europa has not been taking place at the same rhythm. This is something that shall come for the 2025.
We expect it to come, but has not been able to achieve it in the third quarter. We are improving quarter after quarter, but the demand still is very weak in Euro pe.
Sorry, just to add, Ioannis, probably in these days, it's not obtainable profitability in Europe for none of the players. So still, the prices are depressed and the demand is very poor. So in this environment, we don't consider that any of the players should have black figures at the bottom of the P&L. So it's probably everyone should need to wait. We hope this is to come in 2025. So by itself, in these days, probably it's very difficult to achieve that.
Okay. Understood. Last question for me on the Q4 outlook where you guide for lower underlying EBITDA quarter over quarter. Shall we look at Q4 2022 and 2023 as a reference where we generate around EUR 90 million-EUR 95 million of EBITDA? Is that a reasonable range, or do you have some additional comments here?
Okay. The situation of the demand is not at the levels that we were in 2022 or 2023. Okay. So we really expect EBITDA to be in a low range for quarter two, quarter four. Especially quarter four is also affected by the seasonality of the normal market, but the American market, sorry. But it is true that the levels of demand, as said, last year, there was a drop of 20%. And in this year, we are not recovering anything of the drop of last year. So just looking at the external figures and at the macroeconomic figures that we are having this year, they are being worse than was the situation in the past.
So we expect a low figure. It is true that in our case, it will be positively affected by Bahru, okay, in terms of reported EBITDA. Okay. In the case of Bahru, you know that we made an impairment last year, which dropped all the value almost to zero or to the value of the land. And we might have also at the end of the year some extraordinary positive effects due to the accounting effects of the conversion difference. So that says part of the EBITDA that we could have as negative because of the lack of demand could be compensated in terms of reporting EBITDA by the sale of Bahru.
That's clear. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from Maxime Kogge with ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.
Okay. Good afternoon. So my first question is on precisely the accounting gain you plan to achieve on Bahru. I think the land was something around EUR 40 million in your balance sheet. While the net proceeds are $95 million. So is the accounting gain you plan to realize in Q4 the difference between the two?
Well, from an accounting perspective, it's not exactly that difference, okay, because you need to take into consideration also the historical value of the investments that we have done over the years in Bahru. Okay. So there is an effect also, which is kept on according to accounting rules. There is an effect which is kept in reserve, which is the conversion difference. In our case, those are positives. Okay. And those will be released at the same time we lose the control of Bahru. Those conversion differences, it will depend on the date in which we do the transaction.
But for you to have an idea, the conversion difference, the positive conversion difference that we have as of September are in the range of EUR 80 million-EUR 90 million. So it will be a better profit than the difference between the EUR 40 million and the EUR 95 million.
Okay. That's clear. And second question is on the situation in Europe. So I read in the press that you started a layoff scheme in Spain. So could you shed some color on the related impact in terms of capacity utilization and perhaps cost savings? And can you shed perhaps further color on the capacity utilization in all your plants throughout the world, at least NAS and Columbus?
Well, in Spain, you know that we have this tool of the temporary layoff that allows us to adapt to the demand, our production plan to the demand. In this sense, as you mentioned, we activate it at the beginning of October. Workers are already coming back to the plant. It will be by phases. It depends on the necessities, but the melting, hot- and cold-rolling, it depends on the necessities, one week or another. But I repeat, this is a tool that we have to flexibilize our cost and our production plant in the plant. The capacity utilization for the third quarter, it's about 60%, roughly speaking, and then for the fourth quarter, it depends on the market situation. We will adapt.
Okay, and just the last one, so it's on your pro forma net leverage. At the time of the ac quisition of Haynes, you plan to achieve 1.5 x at the onset and bring that down to 1.2x in 2025. Since then, I think that the EBITDA generation has been a bit weaker than your expectations, although free cash flow has been broadly in line despite the seasonal tick up we have seen in Q3. So what's your latest estimate for net leverage at the end of Q4 when the Haynes acquisition is supposed to close?
Well, still it's a bit premature. In any case, as we have indicated, the debt was rising in the Q3. We understand that this should be neutralized in the Q4 in equivalent terms. So probably as a rough indication, still it's a lot of circumstances to take place. We understand that should be in line with that net financial debt that we reported at the end of 2023. So having said that, I think that 2023, it was in the range of EUR 340 million. So probably should be in that range.
In addition, we have the time of when we are closing the deal of Haynes. It's obvious that the picture, as much as we have to get close to the end of the year and the closing year, if we are finally anytime late November, early December, just to close the deal of Haynes, by far we shall not be able to contribute our EBITDA with a high contribution coming from purely almost one month, which also normally is the seasonal slowdown in the States, as we mentioned, and we are putting all the debt in the same equation, so still the targets are reasonable on a medium term, but the final finish of the 31st of December, if the Haynes is finally taking place late November, shall be spoiled by that, but in the normality of the developing of the coming months, still we think that this is achievable.
It's a pity that at the end, it's out of our control. So we control the controllables, but as I said before, dealing with all the different administrations, mostly in Europe, regarding all these procedures has been lengthy. And at the end, we are prepared for making a quick closing as soon as we got all the approvals, but this is still pending to come. So we do not know if it shall be early November or, sorry, late November, mid-November, early December. We are prepared for that. Obviously, for our Financial Director, it's something to keep in mind as we are moving $800 million for paying Haynes shareholders. But we are still pending from a third-party administration that has its own procedures and its own time. Let's see when it comes. This assuming that finally, as we consider, it shall be approved in phase one.
If finally it should be needed additional analysis or discussions and it could be delayed, we should move to early 2025. But let's hope that this does not happen and we still are achieving pace. So we are not in this regard concerned about breaking our KPIs just because the deal is taking place at the latest part of the year. We are long-term runners.
Okay. Thank you.
The next question comes from Moses Ola with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Hi, all. Thank you very much for taking my question. A few from me as well. Just wanted to focus first on shipments within the quarter, which were actually quite strong. You've previously in the past dived or given us color on capacity utilization for the quarter.
Could you please speak to perhaps where utilization was for North America in the quarter, Europe, and then also what are your expectations on shipments into Q4, please? That's my first question.
We should specify that we are not reporting shipments. We are reporting melting production. That is not the same as we explained during the presentation. We need to fill in our supply chains in Europe. So production in this quarter was higher than shipments. This is on one hand. And on the other hand, the capacity utilization in the quarter, we were at levels of about 60% in Spain, about 70 %+, in the States, and 65%, roughly speaking, in Columbus, in South Africa.
Okay. Brilliant. Thank you very much for that color. And then secondly, just on, I guess, expectations for profitability in Europe. If the previous target was to be towards breakeven in Q3, which was not achieved, what are your current expectations into Q4? Are you essentially guiding for less result or continuous improvement even though they'll not break even?
It's going to be difficult at the end. Keep in mind in the Q4, the low level of capacity utilization. We are also making some temporary layoffs, as Carlos mentioned, as a consequence of that flexibility that was brought in the wage agreement. So we are normalizing, but I do not dare to say up to what extent this normalizing should take place or shall take place in the Q4. In addition, obviously, maybe that situation is feasible if we see a reactivation of the market in the Q1 of 2025, which still we have not that visibility.
So contemplating our quarterly figures, the fact that this is a reactivation of the market in January or the fact that the market in January still is depressed may have a big effect, especially if it's needed or not to make further inventory adjustments. So at the end, we are getting close to the breakeven, but on the actual market basis, it's not such a clear picture if we are going to achieve this in this period or we need just to wait for the coming year. We are getting close to the breakeven, but we are still not there.
Brilliant. And just finally for me, it seems broadly there is this market expectation that post-U.S. elections, we could see stronger trade protectionism measures, particularly in the U.S., which would obviously benefit producers such as ourselves.
We've seen obviously discussions at the start of this year as well for further import protection versus even neighboring trade partners in the U.S., such as Mexico and Canada. Just broadly, if those realizations do not come through post-U.S. elections, how do you see, I guess, the long-term prospects of the U.S. market? We've seen this year import penetration rise higher versus last year. We look at investments yourselves and peers are making, which is to essentially win back some more import share over the medium term. If we don't see that level of heightened trade protectionism measures, do you still view that these investments can carry the same level of returns as you expected, let's say, one, two, three years ago?
Our strategy in the States has made us obtaining and improving margins, even though at this time, and this especially took place, for example, during last year in a time in which the imports were rising. But at the end, we have been able just to drive our production most to the high value-added types and being less exposed to the pure commodity types. So the imports in the States are mostly related to the pure commodities, and we are not depending on purely such commodity types from our customers. So consequently, in this regard, the status quo up to now for us is fine as it is. Obviously, at the end, if it were a tsunami and were an excess of material, this could distort the picture. At the end, the States need imports because at the end, it's an import-dependent market.
It's true that in this circumstance, not as a consequence of the imports, but as a consequence of the demand, is while we are running our plant at lower capacity utilization than what was historically our standards. But this is as a consequence of the demand. So for us, that concern is not so related to the imports. So in this regard, in terms of what may happen on the elections, we always have found a difference than with the European administration that the American administration is very effective. And it has been effective. The Democrat administration and Obama put in place the anti-dumping to China. It has been also effective, the Republican administration when Trump administration implemented the Section 232. And at the end, the Democrat administration of Biden also has fully respected the Section 232. So in that, it's not going to be big changes.
At the end, obviously, when we analyze the pros and the cons of the two possible candidates, it appears to be also more, let's consider a business-friendly Trump, but on the other side, still we need to really define all the infrastructure and the IRA program of the Biden administration still has not been materialized in pure amounts of stainless. So a Democrat administration maybe also should be sensible to the IRA and bringing additional investments that should need stainless for that special end uses. So in general, what we must say is that our trust, belief on the possibilities of the American market for the coming future is not depending on who really is going to win the elections, so in both of the cases, the prospects for America remain very robust.
Thank you so much. That was really helpful.
The next question comes from Tom Zhang with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, afternoon. Thanks for taking our questions. Just two short ones for me. Could you help walk us through some of the exceptional costs that you might have seen through Q3, by which I mean, did you have any inventory, negative inventory valuations, were there any sort of catch-up maintenance costs for the Europe assets? If you have a sort of estimate on the strike impact or sort of live strike impact on Q3, and then just what you're baking into the Q4 guidance, both on the inventory valuation side and what kind of costs we should think are associated to this short-term working stoppage. Thanks.
Okay. In terms of inventory valuation cost, okay, this has not been really a fact in this quarter. It's true that we have increased inventories, but our cost of inventories is not being that high so as to increase the provisions in the quarter. Of course, we always have that valuation effect, which in this quarter, I think the adjustment that we made is not really significant, was in the range of EUR 30 million. So as long as the expectation for the fourth quarter is to reduce the inventories and the circumstances in terms of prices and costs should remain stable, we don't expect a very big impact in terms of stock valuation. About maintenance costs, there's not been really. It's true that the ramp-up of the factory in Acerinox Europa has been extremely successful. We didn't have any extraordinary maintenance costs that makes us to mark or to change our provisions to quarter four. So it's been really very successful.
So we do not expect any extraordinary costs affecting the quarter other than those related to the low demand. But we do not really think there is going to be any exceptional thing other than our day-to-day business for the fourth quarter. And we do not expect any high impact of the stock valuations at the end of the year in the sense that we are putting all our efforts to reduce our stocks.
Got it. So sorry, that EUR 30 million, that was a nine-month number or that was just in Q3 negative devaluation? Sorry. What was the EUR 30 million number?
Yeah. No, the EUR 30 million is the total adjustment that we have on our inventories at September figure. So the inventories have been written down by this EUR 30 million in September.
So it's for the year so far, not for the quarter. Yeah. Okay. That's fine. And then, sorry, just the other question. Miguel, earlier you mentioned just in Europe, some of them you haven't lost any customers, but you're seeing some of them look at other suppliers to meet their needs. So it does feel like at least for the end of this year, there's a little bit of market share loss. I mean, what's the strategy to kind of win those back next year? Is it on pricing? Is it on reliability of supply once you've got Europe up and running? Yeah. Just curious on that side. Thanks.
Not in pricing. Clearly, it's more in terms of obviously reliability of the supply, as you are saying. So we have not lost customers. We have lost orders. And in the end, clearly, our customers have been needing to source from other sources.
And this combined with the low demand at the end of the year has created this effect that the volumes have been a bit lower than expected. Having said that, through our conversations that actually are taking place for the supplying and the commitment agreements for the coming year, we are realizing that we have had that effect coming in this quarter, but we are not losing that order books for the coming year. So in this regard, by far, we are not going to make any aggressive policy in terms of pricing. This is not the solution for actual days. And as much as our goal is directly approaching the final customers and having more close and consistent participation and working together with the final customers in the supplies, we feel comfortable that all these customers remain confident when the solution has been already there and is active.
So we are negotiating on this basis for the coming year, and that's it. We do not expect further impacts on these circumstances.
Okay. Makes sense. Can I squeeze in one more? Sorry. Just on U.S. aerospace and Haynes Acquisition, you've obviously seen one of your European peers now talk about making inroads into the U.S. Aerospace business. I understand USAP is more stainless engineering steel, but it feels like that's them opening the door to put more nickel alloy products into that market. How different is that product from what Haynes does? Are you worried at all about another competitor coming into the market? Just any color that would be interesting. Thanks.
Well, first of all, at the end, obviously, we have a great respect for Aperam, as we have a great respect for Universal. And at the end, the fact that their focus and their strategy is in line with us, also for us, is a clear reinforcing issue. So we fully understand that Aperam in these days is contemplating the American market due to its strength as a possibility for the future and mostly in the aerospace. Universal and Haynes are not competitors at all. At the end, both supply to the aerospace industry, but in different areas, Haynes is more oriented to the hard part of the motor, while Universal supplies different components, the landing gears and hydraulic part of the systems and so on. So on that regard, focusing on the aerospace industry, but it's different type of products. So more or less, Universal is more what we could call steel tools.
Haynes is more oriented, as I said before, to the hard part of the motors due to its nickel alloys structure. On this basis, we respect the strategy of Aperam. We share the views on American alloys and aerospace, but we are not competitors. Haynes is not competing with Universal. Universal is probably selling most of its product through distribution, while also Haynes going more to the final customers. At the end, in the case of Haynes, obviously, with key participation of all the innovation and research and so on. In this regard, for us, it's fine. Clearly, when we made the moving to America, we always focus on Haynes, and we have been following Haynes for a while. In our case, the proper complementarity was through VDM and Haynes.
And because the niches are common, and the synergies are to be obtained through VDM and Haynes. So in the case of Universal, it should be a different scenario. So for us, it's more a clear demonstration that not only we, with our presence in America, but also other key players as Aperam, understand that America is the place to be. And also, the aerospace sector is a sector to cover and to improve the presence and has proper prospects for the future. So we consider that this reinforced more our strategy rather than concerns us because it's no real competitor.
Makes sense. Thank you for the call. I'll turn it back.
Our final question today comes from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas. Tristan, please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Just a quick follow-up on Haynes and the pending situation with Austria. Obviously, it's taking a bit more time than expected. Could you confirm then the closing is still expected in Q4? And is there any risk of disposals? I'm trying to understand why Austria has been such an issue given that the presence is limited. So if you could give us a little bit of color on the process and why you're confident on the closing, that'd be great. Thank you.
Thank you. Well, we are confident because our understanding, obviously, is that the combination of the two players is not really providing big changes to the Austrian market. And this is something that has been stated. The VDM has a higher participation in the Austrian market because there are two key customers for VDM that are strong in Austria. And in the case of Haynes, the presence is negligible. So we never expected that this could be an issue for the Austrian authorities.
Maybe the global picture of what could be the aggregated figure appeared to be some figure that for some of the responsibles at administration deserve a further procedure or a more detailed procedure or analysis. But this is not as a consequence of the combination. This is a consequence because two relevant customers are strong players in Austria and are customers for VDM. Having said that, it's true that this has been probably the pending milestone that we have. Other countries where there were more participation of both players have been already passing with no difficulties. And the last one has been the U.K. So nowadays, it's only Austria. We are obviously in an open procedure, and we are just waiting to see. Finally, the decision is just to give us the allowance.
If we are not contemplating at this stage that remedies could be taken, if remedies could be taken, we should look for the remedies. But at the end, for us, it's purely a matter of time. We are impatient to do it as soon as possible. If it takes one month, two months, three months more, okay, it should be painful. Should be a delay of some of the participation in common analysis that we should be making together. We have prepared, for example, if that were the case and if it were to be delayed, the specifications of all the equipment that need to be ordered to the equipment suppliers could be delayed two, three, four months.
Okay, we have already designed a clean team approved by the antitrust rules in order that should be that members of that clean team in both sides, the one that should start discussing this issue. But we understand that probably is not going to be needed. And the key responsibles on the technical area should be the one participating on conversations from both sides. It has been frustrating, and I think we also stated that in the previous presentations because we never foresee that Austria should be a problem. But nowadays, they are the only one. And let's hope that the situation is finally approved as soon as possible. We are prepared for closing as soon as we obtain the allowance and our lawyers are confident that this may come in the coming weeks. Let's hope that it occurs in this line.
Those are all the questions we have time for today. And so I'll turn the call back to the management team for closing comments.
Thank you very much to the three of you for the presentation and also for the answers given. And to all of you for your presence here in person or virtual. We hope to see you soon.