Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Acerinox First Quarter 2025 Conference Call. Today, the presentation will be hosted by our CEO, Bernardo Velázquez, our Chief Corporate Officer, Miguel Ferrandis, and our CFO, Esther Camós. After our prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions. Before getting started, let me remind you that this conference call is being broadcast on our website, acerinox.com. Now, I would like to give the floor to our CEO, Bernardo. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending this presentation. Before I came here, I was reading the reactions in the newspapers saying something like, "Acerinox results are shrinking because of tariffs." This is not reflecting the reality. Esther and Miguel will explain later our financial data and why the profits are below Q1 2024, but this is not the situation. Remember, that was a correction in the market in Q4, and as expected, we started this quarter recovering gradually, recovering step by step. March was a good month in the order book. The order book is in a healthy situation. In the second of April, with the announcement of the Liberation Day, with the tariffs, that created a lot of confusion. It does not mean that the market shrank again or that the market went down again.
The market remains stable at the level of March, waiting for the news, waiting for the negotiation, and waiting what's going to be, what can happen with the situations, supply chains, and how the tariffs will affect the different markets. What can we do in this situation, in this scenario? First of all, as we present in this slide, it's control the controllables. We have to surf these big waves, and the best way to do it is monitoring our supply chains, keeping control of our business, and keeping control of our working capital. I think this is something that we always try to show, that we have experience in managing the volatility, and the working capital is very tight controlled. This is important.
Once we have this, we are always in a cyclical business, long-term oriented, and with a huge experience in this industry, focusing on our long-term strategy, as you can see here. We have released a plan to control our working capital that is working well. We will focus on this to reduce our debt. We are very happy and very busy integrating things in the organization. Until now, it's a real success. We are focusing on the strategic plan of Acerinox Europe, trying to move to more added value material, the same that we are working on diversifying the production of Columbus to reduce the dependency of. In our exports, we have a privileged position in the United States where we are investing to accompany the American market, and we are growing in HPA, in VDM, also because it's a good business and it's very healthy.
In general, the situation, we do not have to panic. There is a lot of news, there is a lot of volatility, but we are very calm. I think we have our business under control and it is in a better situation. We have been improving from January to March. March is at a good level. Our order book is solid, and this is what our results will reflect in Q2. Having said this, I will pass the floor to Miguel, who will explain the situation in the different markets.
Thank you. The most remarkable bullet points for this first quarter of the year, first of all, we must express the satisfaction on a EBITDA of EUR 102 million. In the actual business climate, as convulsive as it is, we have demonstrated once again our resilience. We are establishing at the bottom of our profitability, of our quarterly profitability, these trends of EUR 90 million, EUR 102 million in this quarter, EUR 91 million as the adjusted EBITDA in the Q4 last year. We are clearly giving the consistency that what was previously our normalized EBITDA three, four, five years ago, now is more or less the sustained EBITDA we are keeping in the lowest part of the cycle or in the difficult times, as has been this challenging first quarter. This for us is extremely positive, as is also extremely satisfactory, our strong cash generation in the quarter.
We have generated EUR 99 million of cash flow in a quarter in which production has increased 29%. In addition, we have been even able to reduce the working capital around EUR 6 million, which normally means a first quarter of normally increased working capital, especially with such increase of production. In our case, even we have been able to reduce it. We are extremely committed for our working capital reduction program, and we are fulfilling all our targets, and this is something that obviously is going to keep consistency in the coming quarters. In addition, the net debt of the group, EUR 1.2 billion. You know that net debt never has been our strong headache. Our debt is extremely competitive.
We are obviously just including in all our debt all the acquisition of Haynes International, so we are there, but in this first quarter, as a consequence of this strong cash flow, the net debt has slightly increased around EUR 75 million, keeping in mind that it's a quarter with a dividend payment of EUR 77 million, keeping in mind the strong CapEx in which we are involved with EUR 57 million, keeping in mind also the conversion difference effect, which is strong in this quarter because, as you know, we have a strong cash position in the United States. The pure accounting conversion difference of our cash in dollars to the euros now in a stronger euro, weaker dollar is creating this effect. On this basis, there is nothing to be concerned about, and this is the basis of the business.
Gradually, as we announced, the net debt shall be reducing during the year. In addition, it is more easy to appreciate actually our strategic advantage compared with the industry regarding the geographical diversification of our assets. We are producing in three different continents. We are not exposed to a single area recession, so consequently, we can compensate with this. We are stronger, obviously, in America, which is the one keeping the better performance market in these days. Having this geographical diversification of assets in the new world, we are entering on with this strong relevance of the regionalization issues. This is a unique opportunity, probably among in our industry that we are having.
As a consequence of all of this, and especially keeping in mind that with all these convulsive months we have experienced gradually in the quarter, but the situation is improving, especially since March, we can very comfortably state that no doubt the Q2 EBITDA shall be higher than the Q1. If we go to the market highlights in this period, it is very easy. We try to express in a visible way with dots more or less the favorable or the unfavorable facts taking place in each of our markets. It is very visible to appreciate that our main market, which is America, is where we have more positive dots. We are probably neutral in the HPA business, and definitely in the European market is where still we are not appreciating the green shots. If we go to America, basically there are three relevant facts.
The inventories remain at very low levels. The prices remain stable, and this stability for business climate is the most adequate also for the comfort of our customers. This is a very positive fact in America. In addition, the Section 232 has been reset. As a consequence of that, no exclusions, and also introducing more final products, this is a very positive fact for the confidence of our customers. These facts obviously are there. It's true that the demand remains flat in the states, but in any case, with this demand, we can live easily, and we probably shall be increasing our productivity in the remaining quarters of the year. The most negative fact is that even in this basis, but at the end, still the imports are gaining market share in the states.
For us, we are easily now going to business in America, and we are comfortable on that basis and improving. In the high-performance alloys, it depends on the final products. It is more or less a stable market. There are strong sectors such as the electronic and automotive. We are seeing a wait and see in the oil and gas. We understand that this is something that is more coming for the second semester as we are participating in relevant tenders and projects that probably shall materialize in the second semester. In this regard, we keep comfort. The sector that is obviously relevant, as is the aerospace, the order book remains strong. The prospect for the future is very solid, but it is true that the recovery after the disruptions in the supply chain shall be corrected gradually. In this regard, we also feel comfortable.
The sector that probably is more now painful on the HPA is the chemical process industries. As a consequence, the actual uncertainties on the market are postponing any decision on capital investments. As I previously said, still we are not seeing green shots in Europe. The prices remain extremely low. There are some markets that have been increasing imports, mostly two markets. We have been appreciating imports in Italy and Poland. On these markets, the inventories are a bit high, but in the rest of the markets, the inventories, the European markets, the inventories remain more or less controlled. Still we are not seeing a reactivation of the demand in Europe, which is something that at the end is needed. It should come, but still we have not seen the green shots in the reactivation of demand. Esther shall explain now the figures for the quarter.
Okay, so going to the consolidated results of the group, okay, as we announced when we presented the full quarter results, we are showing a recovery, a recovery in terms of EBITDA when we compare to the operating EBITDA that we have in the full quarter that we will come later. Going just line by line, if we start by production, we are increasing our production in the group by 29% compared to the last quarter, which is a significant figure. We have been experiencing a recovery in all our plants, but very remarkable the one in Europe, which has increased in almost 80%. If we go to sales, the sales increase has been lower than the activity, and this is mainly marked by two things. One is the reduction on the alloy surcharge in the states, okay, which is also affecting the margin.
That is also compared to Q1 last year and also to the previous quarter. Also the higher sales in Europe, which are much lower prices and still depressed prices. Okay, so that's two effects that make the sales to increase a little bit less. In terms of EBITDA, remember that our fourth quarter operating EBITDA was EUR 91 million. It was affected by the reported EBITDA was different. It was affected by a lot of extraordinary effects, which amounted to EUR 59 million, being the main one, the sale of Bahru. Comparing to that, we are increasing our EBITDA by a 12%, okay, which is a recovery. What is very remarkable in the EBITDA is that when we look at the EBITDA month by month, we are experiencing an increase from January to February and being the best one March, both in sales, in margins, and in EBITDA.
Okay, so we are finishing March, as Bernardo said, with a solid order book, okay, which makes us be positive for the next quarter as well. Okay, in terms of EBIT, and I think that is important to explain because in terms of EBIT, we are reducing a little bit, and that's impacted by depreciation because of the acquisition of Haynes. Okay, in that regard, it is not only the depreciations of the pure depreciations of Haynes. Haynes is being consolidated fully this quarter, okay, but it's not only the depreciations of Haynes, but it's also the accounting standards, okay, that makes us evaluate the tangible and intangible assets at fair value. That creates more depreciations for us that's impacting the EBIT. In terms of results before taxes, we have also been impacted by the higher net financial debt.
Okay, that is reducing our, because of the cash that we paid for the acquisition of Haynes, we are reducing our cash and therefore reducing our financial income. Okay, that is making also the result before taxes to be reduced. In general, we are presenting, we are seeing a recovery, we are seeing a recovery for the next quarter. What is more important is, and what we are more proud about is the operating cash flow. Okay, we are generating a cash flow of EUR 99 million in this quarter despite the increase on the activity, which is very remarkable. We are even reducing working capital in these circumstances, and this is due to the success of the working capital management program that we have launched in the group and that we are very committed with.
If we go to our divisions, okay, starting by stainless, production has increased this 29% that we already explained. Sales are affected, as I mentioned, by the lower surcharge in the state and the low market prices in Europe. Even though compared to last quarter, we have increased 10%, the EBITDA of the fourth quarter is, when we see the reported EBITDA, is EUR 126 million, but if we go to the operating EBITDA of the previous quarter, it was EUR 57 million. We are also achieving a recovery in this quarter in terms of EBITDA. We are ending with a solid order book in the U.S. for March that, as I mentioned, the activity has increased month to month, and that is something very remarkable. We still see that for the next quarter.
We continue to focus on our strategy and cost efficiency plans, okay, and that is enhancing our competitiveness and allows us to get better results in all the plants. The operating cash flow, both in stainless and later we will see in HPA, has been positive in both units, ending with EUR 41 million operating cash flow this quarter. If we go to HPA, in HPA, this quarter fully incorporates Haynes. Okay, remember that in the last quarter, we just incorporated one, consolidated one month. Okay, so that makes the figure not 100% comparable. The decline in nickel prices is also impacting the margins in the HPA division. In terms of demand, the demand in Europe has been weak based on what Miguel has said. More or less, the customers are postponing all the capital investment projects. Okay, so that is affecting the sales in the European market.
In the U.S., as Miguel has also mentioned, the recovery in aerospace has not yet come, but this for us is not a concern, okay, because due to the long-term order book that there is in the sector, we are still committed and prepared to deliver whenever the recovery comes that we expect possibly most for the second half of the year. Again, positive cash flow in this division as well. Very remarkable, the reduction in the working capital, okay, despite also the increase of activity by 29%. Now going to the capital allocation and the cash flow, okay, we can see, which is very positive, that the full amount of the EBITDA is almost in the operating cash flow, has materialized in operating cash flow.
The working capital has decreased in EUR 6 million, which is remarkable as we have all said in an increase with that big increase of activity. Also, I want to highlight the financials on others, okay, despite the increase on net financial debt and the reduction of cash, we still have only a consumption of EUR 6 million of our cash in interest. We have not, this quarter has not been affected by significant payment of taxes, and therefore we have had an operating cash flow of this EUR 99 million that we are announcing. Regarding CapEx, our CapEx has been EUR 57 million, which was EUR 36 million in the Q1 2024. We are on an expansion phase, and our strong balance sheet allows us to continue with big CapEx despite being the lower part of the cycle.
We are investing also in the lower part of the cycle and being prepared for when it comes to recovery. The free cash flows have been EUR 42 million. We have paid EUR 0.31 per share in January. Okay, the next payment will come on dividends. The next payment will come in July. These EUR 40 million that we also need to explain, our cash in North American Stainless have been negatively impacted when converting into euros due to the weak U.S. dollar. Okay, and all with that, we have ended with a net financial debt of EUR 1.2 billion. I think that proud of the capital cash generation. Okay, and that is more or less what we have achieved in the quarter. Going to sustainable development, Miguel.
Yeah, sure. We shall report on a semester basis all the key PIs in sustainability. In any case, we wanted to include just 10 programs developed in the first quarter on different sustainability areas. Sustainability is in our DNA. The one today we probably want to give also more relevance is the successful penetration in the market of the Eco Acerinox. At the end, in this product, adding the traditional virtues of the stainless of quality, durability, and recyclability. In addition, we are reducing the carbon footprint. This Eco Acerinox is the first stainless steel in the world that covers the three scopes of the greenhouse gas emission carbon protocol. At the end, it is covering the Scope 1 with more than 50% reduction in the CO2 emissions.
It's covering the Scope 2 in the using of 100% of renewable energy, and it's covering the Scope 3 with more than 90% recycled material for its production. So it's a unique product and it's being appreciated by our customers. We are dealing, we have activities and introduction in more than 40 customers, and this area probably is expanding. As soon as the demand also mostly in Europe reactivates, probably it shall be a much more appreciation and expansion of this product.
Okay, just to finish and summarize the presentation. Of course, we are waiting for negotiations between countries with the United States to put some more rationality in these systems and to clarify what's going to be the situation. We need the stability, and I'm sure that will come sooner than later, probably sooner. In between, we are doing what we have to do. That is focus on controlling the control of us, control our business. You know that there's nobody more experienced in this industry than our team that we have been managing crisis in 2008. We know how to do it. We know how to work with this volatility, and we are trying to keep our working capital under control and inspiring confidence in the way we manage our business. This is important.
Tariffs at the end, or not tariffs, this protection of the industry will be positive for the Acerinox group. Remember that we are leaders in the United States and that the United States, North American Stainless, is the engine of our group. More stability in the United States and better industry protection will give us more benefits. We are more Americans than Europeans today. I think that Europe will wake up and will consider seriously to protect the industry because it is necessary. Of course, as I said, controlling our working capital, this solid operating cash flow giving us a healthy financial position. This is more or less as we see the business today at the end of the quarter.
This is stability, quiet, but not panicking and waiting for the negotiations and waiting for more visibility with the tariffs because the recovery, the expected recovery has been postponed, but it will come. Now for the second quarter, we are optimistic because we have a very solid order book in stainless steel. We are better now. We are in a better position than we were in January when we started the year. Our order book is strong. Also in HPA, it is also strong. It is very stable in the United States with some wait and see in Europe, especially in oil and gas and chemical processing industry projects. The same that in stainless steel, consumer goods are performing better than capital investment. It is very logical with this situation. This is also affecting a little bit to HPA, but our order book in both sections, in both divisions is solid.
Having said this, we will repeat again. Q2 is going to be better than Q1, and Q2 is going to be better than Q2 2024. Most probably, the first half of the year is going to be at the same level or slightly higher than the first part of the year in 2024. That's it, Carlos.
Thank you very much for the presentation. Let's move now, please, to the Q&A session. Operator, please go ahead.
Thank you. We will now start today's Q&A session. If you would like to register a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, then it is star followed by two. Our first question today comes from Adahna Ekoku from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, morning. Thank you for taking my questions. My first is on Europe. Could you share some more detail on the progress of the strategic plan? You mentioned the volume uplift, but how did profitability look in Q1, and are you still confident that you'll reach break-even by Q2?
Thank you for the question, Adahna. The strategic plan is going well, is going ahead, focusing in end-user business, focusing on more added value products, and we are doing well. We are doing better than expected with new grades, with new customers, and as Miguel mentioned, with the Eco Acerinox. We are moving in the right direction. With the current situation of prices, as we mentioned in the last presentation, that we expected to be in break-even at the end of Q2. Now, we will have to say that this situation is also postponed a little bit, but we are close to this.
Okay, perfect, thank you. Just second on alloys and Haynes in particular, could you help us understand how Haynes contributed to the results in Q1? Are you still expecting an inflection in the aerospace supply chain disruptions from the second half, or do you expect some delays here as well?
We have more visibility in higher volumes in the aerospace, gradually recovered for the second semester, and especially in the oil and gas. Those are the ones which appear with the two dots, especially because of that circumstance. Still a weak beginning of the year, but gradually in the second semester, we wait for recovery in both areas. The area that for us is also relevant and is the area that still needs more certainty and a more relaxed climate for investing again on specific projects is the chemical process industries. In the others, we are comfortable as it appears, automotive and electronics are doing well, and we gradually see the recovery for aerospace and for oil and gas.
These disruptions were last year. Now the situation is improving. It is not the bottlenecking, still they have some bottlenecks in the supply chain of the industry, but our deliveries are very stable and most probably will remain stable for the second half of the year.
Great. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas Exane. Your line is now open. Please proceed.
Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe on the US market, if you can comment a little bit of what you've seen in recent weeks in terms of order activity and demand. I guess the recovery that you expected in Q2 has now been a bit postponed. What kind of operational support do you see in coming quarters? If you can try to quantify that maybe on the higher volumes. We've seen CRU saying that base prices have started to increase. Can you confirm that? You also mentioned increased productivity. Is that something we should see in Q2 or is more H2? And if you could discuss that a little bit as well.
Thank you, Tristan. In the United States, as I mentioned during the presentation, we see better activity in consumer goods than in capital goods. In our case, in our business, that means that we have a better order book in cold roll than in hot roll. Heavy cases are more focused on the capital investments, while the cold roll is more for washing machines, supply essence in general, automotive industry. Our order book is full in cold roll and still waiting for some more orders in hot roll because of this project that has been postponed. This means that our order book is solid, is good. The more added value products are full, and that will give us more production. That means in our business, in our line, also more productivity and more competitiveness. Price increase. I think that there's enough noise in the system to put more.
We have to take care of our customers. I think we are not only the biggest in the United States, but we are the leader. We want to be a good leader. We want to take care of the market. Now we have to give stability. The level of prices is enough to compete. Let's see what's happening in the coming months if there's something that we can do. Until now, we are quiet and we are happy the way the prices are.
Okay. That's very clear. Maybe just on the tariffs impact, I've seen that you started to put again some surcharge on tariffs. They're relatively small. Can you just let us know where you're impacted on the raw material side and what's the customer reception of those higher surcharges?
Still, it's soon to stand because we know what are the tariffs today, but we don't know what are going to be the tariffs tomorrow. What is clear is that everything related with raw materials will pass through the customers because it's a raw material cost. We are normally in our business through the alloy surcharge. We pass this cost to the customers. Let's see what happened until now. For example, ferrochrome is important for us and is out of the tariffs. Scrap is local scrap, so we don't have tariffs. It's not affecting. That's why the impact in surcharge is so low.
Okay. That's clear. Maybe a last one on the U.S. to wrap up. We've not seen too much of a decline in imports on the flat roll side in April. Have you seen Asian competitors which were already paying the tariffs taking share maybe from European players or other exporters, and is that putting pressure on the market? I think you mentioned in your remarks that you're negotiating with the U.S. maybe, or if I understood that correctly, does that mean that you think there's potential additional trade measures that could be implemented near term?
Imports are in a stable way now. Some of the European players or some of the importers tried to accelerate the orders that they had in the ports in order to take this material before the tariffs were applied. Today, with the 90 days of impasse that we have now, everybody has a 10%, more or less, more or less the same. Negotiations is something that we cannot control. Additional trade defense measures, it is totally out of the tariff system. If we, I think, following the WTO rules in all the areas where we are applying, if there's an importer that is not fulfilling these rules and we can consider this an unfair competition, we will think and we will study to place or try to send to the trade court these cases of anti-dumping or anti-subsidy or anti-circumvention.
We are studying several cases in the United States.
Okay. Perfect. I'll leave it there. Thanks a lot.
Our next question today comes from Tom Zhang from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yes, morning. Thanks for taking our questions. Two from me. The first one, just again on the guidance and around the building blocks. You have kind of said you have solid order books. It sounds like there will be some volume increase into Q2. It sounds like pricing can be fairly stable in the U.S. and Europe. Europe could be at a lower level. I was just wondering if there is anything you can say around cost movements into Q2. Do you think that will be fairly stable again? I guess we have seen European stainless scrap prices come down a little bit in the last month. Also, if you could clarify if there is any inventory valuation effects in the Q1 prints that might reverse in Q2, please. That was the first question.
Thank you, Tom. Yeah, in terms of order book, as we said, we have a solid order book, especially in the States, and we are comfortable with the levels that we are achieving. We are increasing, which are continuously increasing both month by month. As I said, we have been increasing from January to February to March. March has been the best month for us in the quarter, and we expect continuing in that level for Q2 or even increase. That is more or less what we expect with the volumes. We will have a slight increase. It will not be the 29% that we are presenting compared to full quarter, but we will have an increase for the next quarter again in terms of volume. In terms of cost, you know that very much depends on the prices of the raw materials as well.
We are continuing with our programs and our efficiency costs programs that we are working on, scrap, on higher percentage of utilization. That will help also with the costs as well, as well as continuing with our programs for variable and fixed. Of course, there are uncertainties on the raw materials and in our side sometimes on the electricity, which has also improved in the last months. Of course, there is always some volatility there. Everything that is under our control will be managed correctly and trying to reduce. Regarding inventory variation effects, if there is stability on the nickel, which we do not know, we will not expect inventory variation for next quarter. In this quarter, I think I mentioned, we have had a negative inventory impact of EUR 23 million EUR 24 million in this quarter.
This is part of the EBITDA as well. If the nickel and everything remains in flat levels, then that effect will not be happening in the next quarter.
Thank you. The second question was around you mentioned the chemical processing in some areas, you're seeing CapEx being postponed. Sorry, just to clarify, is that as a result of tariffs, or is that something that's already kind of been in the market? Are you seeing any of that now spill over into stainless? Or at the moment, is order intake still largely unchanged from what you can see in April? Thanks.
This is very clear. Imagine that you are an American customer and you are importing a car from Europe, and you do not know if the tariff is going to be 25%, 20%, or nothing. Normally, how do you manage the situation? You postpone it and wait to clarify. Once the situation is clear, you will decide if you want to pay the tariffs or not or buy from another area. This is what is happening. It is only postponing the decision, waiting to clarify the situation.
Keep in mind also for the capital projects in chemical process industry, it's a combination of obviously the tariff, which is highly relevant, but also with the geopolitical uncertainties, we are still having conflicts. Therefore, there is no certainty of when Europe is more or less reactivating. As a consequence of that, this part of the business is the one remaining more in a wait and see prior to taking further investment decisions.
Thank you. And since you mentioned electricity, maybe if I can just sneak one in, could you just clarify there was no sort of impact on the business from power outages in Spain earlier last month?
Okay. No, no, no. We were lucky. That was good luck because we were not melting at that time. That day, at the moment of the blackout in Acerinox, we were not melting. We have a very clear protocol of how to manage the situation because it is something normal in the industry. We call it in Spanish, [Foreign language]. Normally, we have a contract with the system, the company that is managing the system, that they can cut the industry when it is necessary. This time, they did not have time to call us. There was a cut without any information in advance, but we were not melting, so the damages were very small, very limited. One day of production.
Got it. Thank you. I'll turn it back.
On it. Question today comes from Dominic OKane from JPMorgan . Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thanks for taking my question. I just have two quick questions relating to Haynes. Could you maybe just clarify specifically what the Haynes EBITDA contribution was within HPA during Q1? On the synergy estimates that you've previously provided, obviously, you've previously increased the synergy estimates to $75 million. Is there opportunity as you get further into the business for upside potential on a longer-term view to that $75 million? How are you thinking about the timing of those synergy realizations? Thank you.
Thank you, Dominic. We are now presenting as a business unit the HPA. In that regard, as Esther mentioned, we are including the full quarter of Haynes this time. Obviously, the comparison with the previous year, this is not there. Haynes only registered one month in the previous quarter. This is a normalization period of three months for Haynes. On a general basis, as has been precised, the evolution in the American market and for relevant sectors of Haynes, as for example, the aerospace, is gradually recovering, so the contribution should be higher. In the case of EDM, this year, it is more easy to appreciate that there are effects on the nickel, more or less affecting also the profits of EDM, which are slightly lower than those of the previous year. You remember there were certain tailwinds at that time.
The chemical process industry is a sector which also for EDM is relevant, as well as the oil and gas in which, as I mentioned before, we are involved in certain projects. The contribution of Haynes is expected to be increasing during the year. In regard of EDM, it's true that with the better prospects we are seeing now for the second semester, especially in oil and gas, which is also a relevant sector for EDM, we are comfortable. We must remark, as we have been making in the last months, that at the end for the last year and a half and the previous year, EDM was strongly supported by tailwinds.
At the end, our reference level, our reference contribution for EDM is substantially above the one that we initially contemplated when the acquisition, but we cannot establish that the standard of EDM contribution is going to be in the next term, the EUR 170 million that we were able to do two years ago. This is something obviously below that level. It is absolutely in line and has been in line with the forecast we have for the year. In this regard, there have not been surprises. Our HPA division has been absolutely consistent with the forecast and the budget established for the year.
Regarding the synergies, it's good news that when we presented the acquisition of Haynes at the beginning of 2024, we estimated synergies of EUR 71 million, but at that time, we didn't have access to the Haynes books. Now, once we entered in Haynes in November 2024, we have been double-checking all these synergies. The result of that is that we have confirmed that the EUR 71 million of synergies are there. Also, there's some room to improve it, so that's why we changed the number to EUR 75 million. Of course, there's more potential, but that will come.
Remember that we have announced with the Haynes acquisition also a CapEx of $200 million to increase upstream production, to put a vacuum induction furnace, a beam, to install a forge that will give us more capacity, that will give us also the capacity to process some of the Haynes materials in North American Stainless. The potential is huge, but we haven't quantified it yet.
Thank you.
On it. Question today comes from Bastian Synagowitz from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open. Please proceed.
Yeah, hi, there. Thanks for taking my questions. I just have two quick ones left, actually. The first one is on the U.S. market, where you seem to be pretty confident on the demand side. I am wondering, what is driving the order book strength? Is this basically mostly improving because your clients are basically taking market share following their inclusion into Section 232, or is there any tactical inventory building as far as you see it? At least the direct tariff impact on stainless has been pretty small so far, and clients do not know whether that could be changing in about three months from now. That is my first question.
No, this is a mix of everything. Until now, I think the effect of import reduction has not come yet. We cannot see this yet. Probably will come in the future. There is more activity, and we are not more or less the market is stable. The thing is that we are recovering a normal business. This is where at the beginning I mentioned that we have been gradually increasing because Q4 last year was a correction quota. We are correcting, so we are increasing our order book. We have what is normal today. I cannot say that the market is booming. We said that the recovery has been postponed, but we are in a stable situation. Remember also that the stocks in the American market are still much below the historical average. There is no stock reduction.
Last year, in 2024 and 2023, there was a stock reduction, so apparent consumption went down in order to digest this excess of stocks. Now that the stocks are at a normal level or even lower than normal, the customers or distributors are buying what they need, and customers are buying what they need. That is why the market is strong.
Okay, got you. Maybe just to round this off, could you maybe give us a quick update on where utilization rates are for you in the U.S. at the moment and where this may be trending in the course of the second quarter and maybe same situation or same picture on Europe?
Yes. The capacity utilization rates at this time in Europe is around 74%-75%. This is obviously keeping in mind more or less with the new optimizing plan in Europe, we are concentrating our efforts in specific products, high-value-added products, and also in final customer. On this basis, we are running at 75%, which in the actual basis of the European market is fine. In America, we are slightly below the 90%, so we are around 88%. In South Africa, we are in the range of 61%. Keep in mind that in America, as different America from Europe, the driver of America, sorry, for Europe in these days is most driven by the demand, still is very soft and has not reacted. The driver of the American market in this time is that America still remains being an edge importer market.
There is no local production more or less to match the consumption. Consequently, on that basis, our position in America is advantageous because we are in the highest part of the pyramid of the value-added of the stainless making there. There is an increase in imports. This has its effect, but it's true that the imports are placed in specific niches of the markets, and most of North American Stainless production goes to the upper niche of the produce. On this basis, what this gradually is coming is an increase and a strength in the order book for North American Stainless. The buy American works in the actual uncertainties. The buy American for the American customer each time is more relevant. Because of that, passing over the uncertainties of January, February, since March, the order book is going up.
Our priority and our preference in North American Stainless is running full deployment, and this is a target. We are absolutely being more affordable by a gradual increase of the productivity rather than the fetching prices that shall be a consequence of all the other market dynamics. Yes, running full North American Stainless for us is a great advantage.
That's it. One precision.
Miguel.
Sorry, just let me clarify something because I mentioned it before. In cold roll, we are working at full capacity.
Got you. Okay. I mean, Europe, 75% capacity does not sound too bad, actually, given where the current market is. Does this mean that you may be back to break even actually in the second quarter in Europe?
No, as I said before, this recovery, we're working in the right direction. Now, all the parameters that we can control are improving, but this break-even will be postponed to quarter three.
Having said that, sorry, Bastian, keep in mind the break-even, obviously, is a psychological effect on being in positive break-even a bit. When you are slightly below or you are slightly above, the difference of EUR 3 million-EUR 5 million in our business is not so relevant in the actual market basis. The fact of being slightly positive by far has a strong motivating factor for all of us, but the distance is so short that it is not relevant.
Understood. Okay. Last question, just on the metal effect as well. Esther said that that will pretty much neutralize versus the EUR 24 million in the second quarter. One of your peers today has actually guided for a positive metal effect in the second quarter. Could that be positive for you as well, given where the current market, I guess, parameters are, or you think it's more likely just neutral?
is that it shall be neutral in the stability of the circumstances. At the end, this is for us, is the normal adjusting to market prices and net realizable value. We have made the adjustment of around EUR 23 million, as Esther mentioned. With this, we are comfortably matching the Q2. If there are no further turbulences and going down of the market, it shall be enough. If the market reacts, obviously, we shall be able to revert that, but still is a bit soon to determine that. What we are is comfortably covered with this net realizable value adjusted in our inventory, having it been done at the end of the quarter and amounts, as was previously said, EUR 23 million.
We prefer not to talk about adjusted and unadjusted, but it's true that this EBITDA obtained of EUR 102 million has been after making inventory adjustment of EUR 23 million.
Okay. Thanks so much.
On it. Question today comes from Tommaso Castello from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead with your question.
Good morning, everyone, and thanks for the presentation. My question is on Europe, and I know you cannot comment much on prices, but I was curious, in your opinion, what needs to happen to see some pricing inflection? Because prices were declining well before the tariffs announcement. I wonder whether a low base price, which is leading to low margins, especially in Europe, is mostly related to a misbalance in the supply and demand dynamics, if it is just a matter of high imports, continued destocking, or just a slow economy. Also, could you comment on the sanction plan and the Germany funding announcements, whether you see and you think those could have a meaningful impact on stainless? Thank you.
Thank you for the question. Thank you for the question, but we cannot answer everything. We cannot speak about prices. We'll explain what is the general dynamics of pricing in our business. When we have a full capacity utilization, we have to extend our delivery times. Normally, it's time to start thinking in a price increase. This is not happening at the moment because the market is still not depressed, but it's still flat, and the import pressure is strong. We have to do something to protect the industry because these imports that are growing now, because we have passed from 14% first quarter last year to 24% this year, are putting a lot of pressure in the market. We don't know what can happen now with the tariffs, but the pressure is there. Anyway, the prices are stable, and let's see what happens.
Thank you.
On it. Question today comes from Robert Jackson from Santander. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to get your thoughts on the U.S. market and the potential for capturing import market. We're listening to auto suppliers. Some have been talking about the opportunities for coming from relocation of production to the U.S. I think in your AGM, you mentioned that you're increasing your market share in the U.S. I just want to see, I guess it's probably too early, but if you can give us any of your thoughts, what the potential, what you're seeing, or what could you see in the future from this opportunity. Thank you.
Thank you, Robert. As an estimate, the size of the market of the imports, where imports subject to quotas in the past, were more or less like 15% of the total American market. 15% of the American market were imports that were subject to quotas. Now, without quotas in the new system, the new Section 232, this 15% of the market will be charged with a 25% duty. That does not mean that this 25%, or sorry, this 15% of the market is going to pass automatically to the local producers because some of the materials are not made in the United States, or some of the customers prefer other suppliers. Also, in some of these sectors, you cannot change from one supplier to another in one day. You need to certify, to qualify the.
In which stainless steel is a significant part of the cost, are included in Section 232. For example, beer barrels, sinks, for example, screws or tubes. That means that they will have a protection of these sectors in the United States, most probably with a 25% duty, this production will improve in the country. That means that we will have more customers in a better situation and that the American market will grow. This is very important for us because we are bidding for the American market, and it's a good market. Now it's in the best position, and the industry is important for the country. They are taking care of the industry and not only steel, and now they are moving up or moving down in the supply chain and also supporting our customers.
This is very important because that means that our plants will be successful there because the American market is going to grow. The last question was related to.
That was the main question. Just the other question I just wanted to ask, the timing of the ramp-ups of your investments in NAS, can you give us an update on what that would be?
We expect the new production to come at the end of the year, and then the ramp-up curve, as usual, will be around one year, one year and a half.
Okay. Thank you very much.
On it. Question on today's call is from Maxime Kogge from ODDO BHF. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. No, I'm referring to the objective to bring down net leverage to 1.2 by the end of 2025. That was an objective announced as part of the acquisition of Haynes last year. Yeah, now given that the start of the year has been a bit slower than expected, where do you see that figure trending at the end of the year? I can see that the working cap was very good in Q1. Are you expected to pursue that trend over the coming months too?
Okay, thank you. Thank you very much, Maxime. Regarding net financial debt, it is true that we have an objective of 1.2 x EBITDA, and that will most probably come more or less as we were projecting in two years' time. It possibly will not come end of this year, but we are hardly committed on working capital, because as we announced, we are making higher investments in these CapEx in this year that we will try also to compensate with this working capital. We need to consider also the increase on the activity, which is a big effort, just trying to keep the working capital at a normal level.
For the end of the year, we will still be on figures less than last year, probably we will try to achieve a debt more or less like last year, even a bit lower, but we will not be on levels of EUR 1.2 billion yet until two years' time possibly. We most possibly will be on a range of EUR 1.7 billion or something like that at the end of this year.
Okay, no, that's clear. Just a second and last question is on South Africa because I'm wondering about the business model of this entity because we have seen recently trade tariffs being erected all over the world. In Europe, they are bound to be increased as well. How do you see South Africa trending in that environment? Because its model is still heavily dependent on exports, how does it track actually in terms of reducing its share of exports and increasing its share of domestic revenues?
We do not have the crystal ball, but we can say that we started to announce kind of deglobalization many years ago. Since that time, we have been trying to adapt our business model to a regional business model. That is why the United States is making stainless steel and high-performance alloys for the American market, basically, including Mexico and Canada. Acerinox Europe is totally focused on the European market. As we have mentioned many times, Columbus has a lot of R&D activity because we are specializing in very special ferritic grades. We have the advantage of the local ferrochrome. South Africa has the biggest chrome reserves in the world, and Columbus is taking advantage of this and also started to make carbon steel, and it is also studying, and very soon we will have electrical steel and even high-performance alloys.
The reason of this is because Columbus will have to be concentrated in the African market mainly. We are the market leaders in all Africa. We have close to 50% market share in the whole continent. This is a unique position, very strong. Africa is starting to grow. Many countries in Africa are waking up. This is the strategy, being local in the international markets. Nobody with a better location of assets than the Acerinox Group.
Okay, helpful. Thank you.
It looks like we have no further questions in the queue at this time. That does conclude today's Q&A session. I'll now hand you back over to the management team for some closing remarks.
Thank you very much. There is just one last question coming from the web. The question is from Dario Jose Sanchez- Junco from Villabuena Inversiones. The question is regarding the shareholder remuneration. Has the company considered the possibility of offering a script dividend?
Not really. We have a very clear remuneration policy. I think it is even written in our website that we are keeping the amount of the total amount of money of the dividends. In the past, we have a fixed dividend per share. Now we have fixed the total amount of money, so we will reduce the number of shares. The dividend per share will improve, or even if we do not make a script dividend, it will be the opposite. We are not considering at this time a script dividend. We are considering to pay cash, all these into payments, one in advance as we did in January. The dividend of EUR 0.62 has been approved at the shareholder meeting, and the second payment will come in July.
As it is also included in our policy, if our EBITDA ratio is below 1.2, we will consider the possibility to make another buyback of shares. Until now, we think that all the investments that we are facing now, including the acquisition of Haynes, will give us a better return and will be a better return to the shareholders than a buyback of shares, not considering a scrip dividend today.
Thank you very much. That concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining us today.