Good morning, everyone, welcome to the Acerinox first quarter 2026 results presentation. As you well know, the global landscape is defined by numerous uncertainties, including regional conflicts and ongoing tariff wars. The results obtained in Q1 2026 confirm that the situation is improving despite the continued uncertainty. For this presentation, we have here with us our Chief Corporate Officer, Miguel Ferrandis, our Chief Financial Officer, Esther Camós, and the IR Communication Consolidation and Reporting Director, Carlos Lora-Tamayo, who will explain our Q1 results. Before we start with our presentation, let me remind you that this conference call is being broadcast on our website, acerinox.com. Now I will hand you over to our Chief Corporate Officer, Miguel. Go ahead, please.
Thank you, Borja. Thank you all of you for attending this presentation. Just 10 weeks ago, we were presenting the year 2022-2025 figures. We defined year 2025 as the year of uncertainty. We were hoping that the year 2026 should provide us a much more comfortable scenario. Having said that, the day after our results presentation started the conflict at Iran. Since that time we are keeping the uncertainty. In addition, we have an energy crisis and substantial higher volatility than the one we were experiencing at that time. Now the whole world is in tension. Having said that, we have been honoring our commitment, honoring our word, and we are bringing today an improvement in our quarter figures, an improvement in sales of around 6%.
What's relevant is improvement in the melting production that has been growing 22% quarter-on-quarter. As a consequence of all of this also, a improvement in the adjusted EBITDA growing to EUR 119 million, which is an 18% growth compared with that of the fourth quarter last year. The discipline that we are benefiting in the working capital allows us that even though this increase in volumes of 22%, the operating cash flow has been positive in this first quarter of the year because the working capital increase has been only EUR 47 million. This area is also under control. Thanks to all of this, in this first quarter of higher volumes of dividend payment, as well as huge CapEx expenditures in the coming investments of EUR 73 million.
Our net financial debt has only increased around EUR 100 million, we are also satisfied about that. It is not by coincidence that we have chosen today for the image, the Artemis II launching and leaving the ground. All the world has been excited following this in the last month of April. In our case, you know that we are growing and investing in the aerospace. Haynes has been present since the starting of the Apollo projects in every mission on the NASA. Consequently, for us it is obviously part of our proud and part of our commitment and also showing that we are in the process of taking off. We are leaving the ground. The success obviously is not the launch of the rocket. The success is the completion of the mission.
We are on track, and this is the idea we want to give today. We are leaving the ground. We go market per market, let's start by the most relevant market for us and the best performer, which obviously is the stainless market in the U.S. The market remains solid and being solid is a fact for being more than satisfied, keeping in mind that the demand year-on-year has going down at 11%. In the current environment, no a single customer now gets comforted in making investment decisions or expanding their activities and so on. Demand remains low. The demand is obviously affected by all these circumstances. Having said that, the market remains robust. Fortunately, the effective American administration measures are in place.
The Section 232 is protecting the local steel production. The tariffs remains at 50%. There are no quotas per countries. There is no exclusion, and is being prioritized the melt and pour. This is having its proper effect in the consistency on the market, which gives stability to customers, to producers, to distributors. In addition of all of this, the imports are going down. The imports have got down in the U.S. 33% and currently represent 21% of the total market.
The playing field is correct, even though the challenges and the uncertainties, but at least the playing field is correct in order that we can keep consistency performing in that market, which, as I say before, is a proper frame for all the stakeholders that participate in the stainless steel market industry. When we go to Europe, the situation is improving, but still is different. The market sentiment now is better in Europe. The market, still the demand is down on year-on-year basis, the demand is down at 7%, but there is a better market sentiment. At the end, after obviously all the commercial trade crisis that we are experiencing everywhere, finally, the European Union has take effective measures.
There are new, more relevant measures coming on and shall be in place on the first of July with quotas per countries, with the increase of the duties from 25%-50%, no country exclusions. This shall finally provide probably more protection against unfair imports in the European market, and this shall be by far benefiting the industry. This is to be in place in the first of July. Normally, the months prior to the entrance of these measures are driven by the imports willing to land in Europe prior to the measures being implemented. This fortunately is not taking place this year. Why? Because since the first of January, the CBAM is in place, consequently with the CBAM, we obtain the compensation for all the efforts in decar bonization that the European players are making.
With this measure in place since the very beginning of the year, we have obtained that the imports also have remained under control, and we have reached a current market share of the imports around 14%, which is still slightly above the level that the European Union want to establish for the imports. Roughly speaking, around 13%. What at least we have is that with this more consistent and effective protection, we have also a proper play field. Combined with the fact that the distributors or the stocks at distributors are below the average, we have the proper play field for whenever the demand reacts, we shall be in the better position for taking advantage of the market recovery. Still this is to come because as we have seen before, still the demand in Europe is not reacting properly.
Although for a proper understanding of the differences between the market in Europe and America, we want to present this chart in which we are showing the effects in the prices of the stainless steel of the circumstance that we are mentioning. This is the summary of why we are trusting and investing more in the North American market than the European one. Historically, it's a consistent gap between prices in America and in Europe. Normally, prices in America are $300-$400 above those prices that we experience in the European market. More relevant than that gap in final prices is the differences in the base price. In the chart, you can realize how relevant is obviously the extra alloy surcharge, which is the green part of the chart, which is the pass-through of the nickel.
This structure of the price divided in base price plus extra alloys is effectively working in the States and is benefiting the market. The situation in Europe is that after the rally of the imports in the last year, reaching 30% or 35% of the European market, the pass-through has not been so effective. As a consequence of that, still certain part of our final products is more driven by effective transaction prices. The extra alloy is not working so efficiently. What's also more relevant is the effect in the base price. In that regard, you can appreciate the difference in the stable frame we have in America, in which more or less is obviously with its ups and downs, but the situation is healthy by all the stakeholders, customers, distributors, producers.
Combined with the roller coaster that we have in Europe. In the year 2023, we in four months, we pass from the highest base prices ever achieved in Europe to the lowest prices ever achieved in Europe also. It's very difficult to keep a consistent performance and a positive profit margins in a market with these ups and downs. Still, two or three years later of that crisis, we have not recovered the average of the prices that has been the driver of this, of this period of the last 10 years. Still we are substantially below the average prices. Consequently, it's not simple to become being yet optimistic regarding the prices. With the measures in place, we shall be able to increase prices in Europe, forget being substantially profitable, clearly, we also need a reactivation of demand.
Having said that, the differences and the between the American and the European are so obvious. This is the reason why we are clearly expanding in North America. In the first quarter of 2026, we have put in place all the investment program in North American Stainless of EUR 249 million. With this we are growing our core role capacities in America in terms of 20%. This is the reason why we are trusting and investing more in America than in Europe. If we move to the high-performance alloys market, for us it's also the time to re-stress again that our main virtue and our main strategy is the diversification. For getting less exposed to a single market, we diversified in the stainless between America and in Europe.
Also for not getting only exposed to the stainless, we have been, in the last five years, growing and investing more in the high-performance alloys. We start investing in the high-performance alloys, which also is a cyclical market, but it's a complementary market to the traditional stainless one. Once we invested in growing in the HPA through VDM, mostly for having a relevant presence in sectors such as oil and gas or chemical process, we decide also to invest in America and especially investing in the aerospace. How are now the cycles for the HPA? First of all, the recovery that we are seeing in the stainless, and we are seeing a lot of recovery as mentioned, it still is not there in the HPA.
Probably the bottom of the cycle that we were commenting we passed through in the fourth quarter for the stainless. The tough part of the market in the HPA probably is the one in which we are currently involved, mostly the first quarter, 2026. The bottom of the HPA is the one that has been taking place in this year because we have a combination of facts. If we start by our European HPA, what we are seeing is that in the low part of the cycle of the oil and gas or of the chemical process industries, in addition now we have the energy crisis and all the uncertainties that the tensions in Iran and the tensions are still not solved in Ukraine with additional tensions around Venezuela and so on.
Always the tensions are taking place, the hotspots now are in the markets more energy related, which are all of these. This is creating that there is now a single new decision of investing there taking place. We have the low part of the cycle combined with the non-signs yet of recovery because of the war on place and the tensions taking place there. We are confident that any time in the future, whenever the situation is stabilized, there shall be more necessities to investing in the reconstruction of all the facilities that have been damaged, but this still is not coming. This probably shall provide a better scope for our presence in the oil and gas industry for the coming two years, but this is going to be difficult to experience in this year.
This is the main driver why the contribution of the HPA in Europe is being low at this part of the cycle. With the diversification, we also, as explained before, have been willing to expand not only in other, in other countries, mostly in America, but also in other sectors such as the aerospace and the industrial gas turbine. The industrial gas turbine is doing a fabulous performance. Driven mostly by the data centers, the lead times for the industrial gas turbines have moved from 26 weeks to level of 60 weeks. This is a sector in which we have guarantee for a proper performing in the future.
In the aerospace sector, where we are investing more for growing and especially for growing more in the long products, you know that Haynes is more focused on the flat products, and we are also with the new investments, with the rotary forge, with the BA furnace, we are growing also in the long products. The recovery started earlier in the long products at the end for the aircraft engines construction. The first part is the rotating part, which is mostly covered by the long product players directly, through the mill orders. The shortage in the supply chain on that sector created there has been an anticipation of orders for warranty or taking warranty of all those components. Because of that, the recovery started some months ago.
Finally, the recovery has come to the flat product, which is the second part in the construction of the aircraft engines, which is the case, the engine cases. This now is coming. We are, at this regard, highly satisfied by the strong increase in the order book that came in the month of March. In the month of April, Haynes has experienced its best order book entrance ever in its history. This is a clear demonstration of the improvements in this sector. This is something due to the lead times that should materialize in higher profitability for the second part of the year, because at the end, we are
Obviously contemplating lead times of six to eight months. The recovery is there, our order book is full, the production figures are growing, and this shall materialize in better profits in the second semester.
Now let's move to the effects of the Iran conflict having in our business and also in the market. Within that, the most important thing that we sort of highlight is that we haven't had any disruption in our supply chains. Thanks to our geographical situation, we are able to buy the raw material locally, both in the U.S., in Europe and also in South Africa.
Also, we diversify the origins of our consumables, and with this successful strategy, we haven't had any break in the supply chains, no? We think that this is another demonstration of Acerinox's operational resilience in such a difficult environment. Saying this, no doubt that we have some direct impact, mainly in the logistics and in our cost base. We quantify this impact in EUR 2 million for the first quarter, mainly related to a increase in the gas price in Spain, and also in a lesser extent due to the increase in the freight cost for the whole group.
On the other hand, we have some indirect impact in the market, mainly related to the behavior of our customers. At the end of the day, this conflict is creating more uncertainty in the market, and delays the recovery in the demand. We are seeing our customers still in a wait-and-see position. Maybe the positive note is in the import situation. This logistic and cost impact that we are having also, this is affecting the importers, no? At the end of the day, with longer delivery time, with increase in the freight cost, all of this is putting more pressure to this import.
As Miguel mentioned, also join this with CBAM, imports are moving down in Europe, and also in the U.S. Now I'll give you the floor back to Miguel.
Well, the quarter evolution is a proper explanation of all the things we are mentioning. We could, yes, explain the huge improvement in the EBITDA figure, EUR 32 million fourth quarter to EUR 95 million. Multiplying per 3x , 200% increase. What this should give us an unfair, probably, an also a transparent explanation of things that are taking place. Probably for understanding better the current situation, let's go to the adjustments on place. At the end of the last year, due to the circumstances we mentioned, the bottom on the stainless steel market, we make a strong adjustments at the year-end, we made adjustments reaching the figure of EUR 60 million in inventory write-down.
The range of the adjustments have been substantially reduced. Still, there is necessity of some, but substantially reduced. The situation are by far improving compared with that time, but still we consider convenient to provide some adjustments. Why? We have mentioned it. We have some areas, mostly the HPA in Europe, in which still the situation is tough and that demand is very tough and still that market is to recovery and is exposed obviously to the current oil and gas. The contribution and the margins in the HPA in this first half of the year is not high, this justifies to make some correction in inventory. Also still, the situation in Europe, even though prices are moving up, but they still needs certain adjustments.
Prices are moving up, we have seen some increase in prices during the quarter of around EUR 200-EUR 300, which is positive. In the same time, in which also the nickel has been experiencing its rally as a consequence of the volatility in the current days. Nickel has been going up, reaching levels of around $19,000 per ton at the London Metal Exchange. As I say before, it's not so simple yet that the passthrough of the nickel is operative in Europe. Still, there are certain orders which are under effective transaction prices or orders previously committed. As a consequence of that, we also made some adjustments for covering the European sales or regarding the inventories that we are having in place for the European sales.
The range of the adjustments is substantially below the one we made for the year-end. This is a good demonstration of the recovery of the market. It still is necessary some part of it. We hope that gradually this shall be disappearing, and we hope that we shall be in position in the presenting the semester figures for not going to or not experiencing the necessity of making any adjustments. We are in the track, but let's see what happens from now to the month of July when we shall release the second quarter figures.
We are now just presenting our results for the consolidated group. As you have seen, we have presented and we present a higher EBITDA in this quarter despite the uncertainties and the difficult situations. What is true is that, despite these geopolitical tensions, the uncertainties and the low demand, what we have been seeing during the quarter is an improvement month by month, and we even see better signs for the second quarter. These better signs are materialized in different factors. First, there's been a strong reduction of inputs, both in the U.S. market and in the European market. The new measures in place, CBAM, started January 1. We expect new measures, new protection measures also in Europe, which will positively, we expect they positively impact our markets.
We have seen an increase in the order books. The alloy surcharge is increasing, and this has a positive effect, especially in our main market, the United States. We are seeing also some higher prices in Europe and in the United States. Consequently, our margins have been increasing, and we expect it to increase further in the second quarter. We are also seeing some pockets of recovery in certain sectors, especially gas turbines and aerospace. With all this, the adjusted EBITDA for this first quarter is EUR 119 million, and the margin in this adjusted EBITDA has increased to 9%. We have also achieved positive and very better results in terms of operating result and also the result before taxes.
One of the things we are more proud about is our operating cash flow. We continue being focused on cash generation. Despite the increase of activity, as you see our melting production has increased by 22%. Despite that and despite the higher prices of the raw material, our operating cash flow remains positive, and this reflects our strong compromise in keep the working capital under control. The net financial debt has increased by EUR 100 million, but this is after payment of dividends and the CapEx, as we will also explain later. Going by divisions and going to the stainless, definitely stainless has been the profit driver this quarter.
The diversification of our business between the stainless and high-performance alloys allows us to balance the cycles between these two divisions and thereby achieving a more stable business model. Production volumes have increased by 22% despite our production has been limited in Europe due to the fire that we have in one of our pickling lines. This is completely fixed, and we have again started production in April. The adjusted EBITDA has been of EUR 97 million, and with this adjusted EBITDA we are returning to the two digits margin. We are proud of our operating cash flow positive in both divisions, also in the stainless and in high-performance alloys, as we will see later, due to the strong control of our working capital.
Going to high-performance alloys, again, we can see that the strategy of diversification in regions and in products within the high-performance alloy divisions has allow us to compensate the contraction in demand in certain sectors, like oil and gas or chemicals which are most exposed to high investments projects, to other sectors like aerospace or gas turbines, which are being in a better shape. As Miguel mentioned, the recovery in aerospace in those, in the flat products has been slower than long products. We can say now that this has stabilized. The supply chain for the flat products has stabilized, and we are seeing a significant increase in the order book. Therefore, we expect this will materialize mostly in the second half of the year.
We will see also some recovery in the second quarter. Both melting production and sales are high in the fourth quarter, but fourth quarter is always affected by the seasonality. The adjusted EBITDA has been in this division of EUR 23 million and a reported of EUR 13 million, which has been affected by EUR 10 million of stock adjustment in this division mainly in Europe, due to the difficult situation of certain sectors and the lack of demand. Again, I insist on the operating cash flow because this is one of the things we are more proud about, and we have a very strong focus on working capital control.
Let's give you now a bit of color on the cash generation. As we mentioned during this presentation, we are very proud of our operating cash flow. We achieve EUR 34 million of operating cash flow in Q1. With increasing in volumes of 22% quarter-on-quarter and with raw material prices going up, we think that is very remarkable that the operating working capital only increase in EUR 47 million. This demonstrate that we have a very strict control of our working capital. As you may know, we have a two years plan trying to reduce working capital. Last year, we released about EUR 400 million.
As we mentioned, this EUR 47 million of building Q1 is another demonstration that we are doing things correctly in this sense. We continue with our CapEx with our expansion programs. You know that we are investing intensively in the U.S., in Haynes, in NAS, and also in Europe, in VDM Metals and in Acerinox Europa, then in Acerinox Europa, and Columbus. We spend in this quarter EUR 73 million. It's not big differences with the previous quarters. Also in January, we paid EUR 77 million on dividends.
With all of this, we only increase the net financial debt in EUR 106 million, and the net debt is now at EUR 1.3 billion.
Okay. Just for conclude the most relevant parts. First of all, we have honor our commitment, and we have demonstrated improvements in our results in a scenario with lack of demand and with high uncertainties and even with a energy crisis. We are proud of that. We are able to deliver our strategy, which each time gets more evident and justified. We have the financial strength. We are long-term runners and we are able to keep our long-term strategy plan. We are seeing the advantages of bringing new capacity in the North American Stainless market, and we are seeing also the evidences and the relevance of growing more in the aerospace industry in America and especially in the long product sector. In addition, we have a unique position.
Our diversification of all our facilities all over the Western world allows us to have a strategic autonomy, not so be affected by the current difficulties in the market, especially, for example, by the energy crisis. We are solving in some areas the shortages that we are experiencing in the others, and this is obviously justified. In addition of this, each time the program in place, the Beyond Excellence, take more sense. We are obtaining strong savings on that, and as you remember, we explained in the last quarter presentation, has been so successful that we have increased to EUR 120 million the experience savings for the period 2025 and 2026.
For the next quarter, the outlook still is not so clear. The uncertainties are there. Still some of the conflicts have not been solved, but we can commit ourselves that we shall present better figures in the coming year. The sustained stable prices in America, combined with a gradual recovery in the European market, shall allow us to present proper figures. We consider that keeping this track, it shall not be necessary to provide relevant adjustments for the second quarter results. As a conclusion, we understand that the adjusted EBITDA for the coming quarter should be higher than the one we are presenting today. Thank you very much. Now we can start the Q&A session. Operator, please go ahead.
Thank you very much. To ask a question please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Francisco.Our first question comes from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Your line is open, Francisco. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have two. My first is on capacity utilization. If you can update on the progression since the beginning of the year and into this Q2. In Europe, in particular, you mentioned that imports are down 42% year- on- year. I understand safeguard measures will reduce quota volumes by 55%. How big an uplift in capacity utilization shall we expect from Q2 levels before demand improves? Then my second question is on your comments this week about that you're considering a U.S. listing, so you can comment on this when and how. Thank you.
I take the first question, Paco. Well, the capacity utilization, it's going up, no, in the different plants of the group. In Spain, the Spanish plant, keep in mind that what we mentioned during the call, that is our fire in one of our lines in the P4, that this will allow us to increase, no, for the second quarter, the capacity utilization. In the first quarter, we were in the level of 70%, roughly speaking, and we expect to improve this capacity utilization for the second quarter.
In the U.S., we are in levels of about 80% without taking into account the new line that is already working. In South Africa, that is where we are below the rest of the plants. We are in levels of 60%-65% capacity utilization.
Well, in regard of the U.S. listing, this has been taking place in all the press releases in this week as comments coming from our shareholders meeting. This is mostly something that appeared to be obvious and this has been commented in the last years. Our best performance obviously is in the North American market. We are probably leaders of a market in which we have a strong relevance. It's clear the driver of our profitability. It's clear the driver of our sales. More than 50% of our sales is incoming in North America. Is the market in which really the investors high appreciate the steel industry.
This is something that we always have been looking, let's say, jealous for being a European-listed company, looking how our American peers are highly valued by the investment community in the States. There is a consistent gap between the valuation metrics for the steel players in America compared with the lower valuation multiples that the European companies are getting listed. As a consequence of that, getting well, better follow, valued, and understood where the market values more our sector niche is a absolutely logical movement. As a consequence of that, what we are is obviously making all the analysis for how could it be.
In that basis, it's considered to be studying or starting all the preparation for what could be a potential listing of the American platform of the business. In this regard, when and how? The when is difficult to precise. Obviously, there is a lot of issues involved. Thinking on the way of clearly preparing our and combining our different companies for being in position of presenting an American platform to access the American stock market is something that has all the rational. We are working on that direction.
This should mean mostly the possibility of making anytime in the future an IPO or partial of that part of the business, but more focused mostly on an IPO for business and obviously keeping on remaining the majority participation of it whenever it's come. It's not decided yet when and on the process. Obviously, keep in mind that there is certain integration of different companies to be done. This is not something that is going to occur in the short term, but we are in the way of starting the work, analysis, the preparation for deciding in a later stage the convenience and the most convenient time for that.
Our next question comes from Tristan Gresser from BNP Paribas. Your line is open, Tristan. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple. My first one is, can you explain very simplistically the inventory adjustment of EUR 25 million you made in Q1, how you calculate it, and if it has a cash impact? I start there, but I have other questions.
Thank you, Tristan. Okay. The way we calculate the inventory adjustment is just by comparing the final inventories at the end of the quarter. We compare the cost versus the net realizable value. Okay? This adjustment that we are doing is for inventories that are in our stocks and not yet sold, and that are valued at a higher cost that what we can realize from those inventories. Obviously, there are always some obsoletes and some materials that can be standing. The important thing there is it's been reduced a lot compared to the fourth quarter. Still there are markets in which it's necessary to make this kind of adjustment. Of course, it's not a cash.
It doesn't impact the cash because it's only for material that has not been sold. Currently, the EUR 25 million of inventory adjustments that we have is divided between the High Performance Alloys division and the stainless division, more or less half and half, and is more focused in Europe. Of course, in Europe, as we have explained, the High Performance Alloys division is lacking of orders. It's more exposed to sectors like oil and gas and chemicals, in which there is a lack of orders and therefore, the prices are not in the best moments. That's why we have needed to make an adjustment there.
The other part of the adjustment is in the stainless, but I said, is much less than what it was in the fourth quarter. It doesn't have any cash impact, it is only to reflect the difference between the sale price and the cost price. Okay. The increase on the raw materials has also an impact there, but it's much less than what it was.
Okay. That's clear. In the past, if I look back 2022, 2023, I mean, those inventory adjustments, they were including in the EBITDA. I think last year you started to make them as excluding of the EBITDA, only at the Q4. Now you're doing it in Q1. What a change in the reporting and just trying to really understand what it is. Why is it treated as exceptional? Your cost of raw material increased more than your selling price, that's normally more source of margin squeeze and that's operational. Yeah, I'm trying to understand what I'm missing there.
No, nothing is missed. The fact is providing as much transparency as possible. The current circumstances are not normal. The effects that are taking place in the market are also not normal. We are facing challenges in different markets as a consequence of three years of consecutive negative demand. This is a situation unique. What we tried is that it's better understood more or less the performance of the market and the metrics of our business. Consequently, for comparing figures, for comparing figures, quarter one with fourth quarter last year, if we were just presenting a 200% increase in EBITDA, we shall probably be creating confusion because the situation has not improved by 200%.
The situation has improved around 18% and 20%. Because of that, we are giving some color. The HPA market in Europe for the oil and gas and for the CPI is in bad shape. Consequently, we are having low capacity utilization at our German plants. Obviously, this is having its effect on cost. Relevant sectors for the company are not doing well. We are conveying the product mix to other sectors which are not so profitable. Consequently, this also has its impact in margin. What we are presenting is more or less this issue, as well as what we are presenting is the situation in Europe, which currently, as we explained before, the passthrough of the nickel is not properly working.
In the current situations that we are having in Europe, but still there are some sectors driven by transaction prices in which the current nickel rally is not so easily to place. We also consider that this is an adjustment that justifies that we report it separately. What we want to give is more transparency on you of how is the evolution of the business, but also which is the part that we are adjusting in inventories on a quarterly basis. We hope, as I said before, that this should not be needed in the second quarter results presentation because the momentum should be better and the prices also should be moving up. At the current month of March, April, it appeared that this still was convenient.
It's not that change in the policy, it's just to providing you some color of what's taking place in each of our areas and in the market basis.
Okay. All right. Maybe if I can ask a last question on the outlook. I think we were expecting maybe better ASP, so sales divided by melt shop production. I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, you expect higher ASP in the U.S., but then in the press release it's stable. How should we think about the price appreciation in both Europe and the U.S., and what's the implication then in terms of margins as well into Q2, given you have some cost element there? Thank you.
We think that we are confident on keeping a stable base price in America. This is out of question. The sustained business in America shall remain healthy. We gradually are considering that the situation should be improving on Europe. In addition, we are now solving the fire that we experienced in the European plant last year. The annealing and pickling line number four now is on place. This shall also provide more stability. We had to cover that at certain level bringing material from South Africa, but this created obviously some overdues and so on. Now the situation is getting normalized.
As I say before, we are seeing improvement in the volumes, this is more or less the most clear fact that we have for the coming future. The volumes are improving. We are being able in a market driven by the uncertainty and the low demand for taking market share from the imports, because now the imports are under control. This gives to the industry and to the local industry possibilities of increasing volumes. That increasing volume should give a logical effect on certain increases on prices. For having a effective increase in prices and trying to get close of the normalized level of prices, what we need is a reactivation of demand. Just with the increase in volumes, the situation should be improved.
It's going to be an improve, but not yet radical. For a radical improve, we need a reactivation of demand. After three years of construction, the play field is well prepared for whenever the demand reactivates, we shall have a quick effect and a proper rally. Still, the demand is not there.
All right. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Bastian Synagowitz from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open, Bastian. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning all, and thanks for taking my questions. My first one is also coming back on the inventory impact and sorry to come back to that, but Miguel , from what you said, there were transaction prices which had been committed earlier as metal prices went up, which suggests you're, you were barely running with open metal price exposure. Can you confirm that we understood that correctly? If so, have you now hedged this exposure to manage the risk? Also maybe related again to the inventory effect, now again, when we look at the market, a large part of the products you're selling, they have increased significantly in price. Austenitic grade and 304 has been up by as much as 20%.
In a normal environment, that's actually been positive on your inventories and the valuations and some of your peers have also confirmed that they had similar positive effects, which is what you would expect. Can you confirm, is the EUR 25 million impact the net impact which you have incurred? Those are my first questions. I have two more please, but maybe I'll stop there.
Yes. For the business in Europe, as I said, we have been experiencing certain overdues. We are in the way of reducing our orders which are taking on term basis, and these were taking on effective transaction prices. Gradually we consider that the scope should allow us to be less dependent on effective transaction prices and more focused on more or less the going back to the normal formula of the base price plus extra alloys. Still, in the material that actually we are still pending to supply in the second quarter, there still were certain orders that were covered on effective transaction prices.
That was that one that at the end of last year, more or less, were the basis that were to be discussed with the customers. As far as the situation is improving, as far as the volumes are growing, that is obviously and the better sentiment that we explained that there is in the market, this shall be gradually reduced.
Of course, what you are saying, Bastian, about the effect of the increase of the raw materials and in prices, it's. It's a fact in the States, okay? The pass-through in the States is working perfectly and of course is bringing us some benefits. It is not really the same in Europe. These EUR 25 million that we are talking that we have been talking about is in Europe, and this is a total adjustment that we have done to the inventories that we are holding in stock. I said this is not really a cash effect. It is the total of the adjustments that we are doing to the inventories, both in HPA and in stainless. This all focus in Europe.
Okay. Understood. Thank you. Just briefly also on Europe, maybe zooming in a little bit on the performance of that business. You obviously had the fire, but I guess looking at your production numbers, it does suggest that things are obviously improving here, and you confirmed that. So, any color on when you think you'll be back to breakeven? Do you think maybe breakeven is possible in the course of the second quarter? Maybe not for the full quarter, but in the course of it possibly. Also just on your outlook, and you're obviously guiding for a better second quarter, and you said volumes will be improving. Clearly, European prices should be improving. I guess maybe from what I understood, some improvements in the mix in the U.S. as well.
Putting all of this together, do you at least feel broadly comfortable with market expectations, which are around, say around EUR 150 million EBITDA for the second quarter?
The situation in Europe, as you say, is improving. We remain confident that we shall be reaching breakeven in the year 2026. I don't think it's something that is going to probably take place in the 2nd quarter because the prices are going up. They mostly is the final prices, those that were going up. It's good that the nickel increase as much as possible is being passed through the customers when possible. There are some parts in which, as we mentioned, has not been so simple. Having said that, still, if you look at the base prices, still we are seeing base prices of EUR 450-EUR 500 base price. So this level is ridiculous.
We are able to reach the breakeven substantially below the level of base prices that we have before for getting breakeven, but still this is not there. Consequently, I don't think we are going to reach that level in the second quarter, but we think that we may reach it in the third quarter. Gradually, just with the volumes increasing, with the measures on place, we are getting closer to it. Maybe we are able to match it for the third quarter, but I don't think it is coming in the second quarter. I think we probably need to wait a bit more.
On your guidance?
Yeah. In the guidance is For us, in the levels, we give a clear color that we are going to be better performing in the second quarter. What is a good demonstration of comfort with all the issues taking place? In the energy crisis we are in, with all the uncertainties that are all over the market, a cyclical company giving indications of improvement, we think it's a good sign of trust on our recovery. I am not uncomfortable with this, with this level you are giving. We may be there. Let's see what happens. Let's see when the situation is solved.
Now we are seeing all the contingency plans that all the industries, all the countries are having with the absolute uncertainties of how is going to be the energy situation. It's difficult to be more precise and in giving a exact number. We are comfortable with a improvement. If the field where we are now is the EUR 120 million, I have no problems on you keeping that figure. I cannot be more precise, but purely because still a lot of issues are in place and who knows what may come in between. I am not uncomfortable with that figure.
Okay. Very clear. Thanks so much, Miguel.
Our next question comes from Dominic O'Kane from JPMorgan. Dominic, your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three short questions. Just maybe on the commentary around the pricing structure for Europe and the base plus transaction. Could you maybe just clarify what percentage of your order book currently is on a base plus transaction basis? As you said, your comments are that you're looking to change the structure so that it's more skewed back towards base. Just if you could just help us think about the structure of your order book currently.
Yes. In a market where the imports have been reduced at levels of 14% is much more simple now that in the new negotiation for future deliveries, the European structure of the base price plus extra is respected. The point is clear in the orders that we're taking in the second half of last year when everything was tough and still imports were there, that was much more difficult. Nowadays it's more simple. Gradually we understand that we are going to be reached there.
This is something that clearly is improving because as we have said before, the feeling, the sensation is positive in the market and with the new volumes in place, with the reduce of competition from imports, this is much more simple now.
Okay. I mean, if I estimate, is it less than 30% or is it around 30%? Is it possible to quantify it?
I don't have the figures. I don't think we have the figures currently. We are on that mood. Let's say that we are there, but we cannot quantify yet.
Okay, cool. I just have some two other questions. You made the comment around about the Middle East impact at EUR 2 million in March. Arguably the backdrop has maybe improved since March, given lower gas prices. Is that the same type of number we should maybe expect for April and May?
Yeah, well, within that, for your numbers, you can estimate between mid-single digit to high- single digit for the whole quarter.
Excellent. Thank you. Then final question on just on the outlook, specifically just digging into high-performance alloys. The Q1 EUR 13 million headline EBITDA was maybe a little bit weak. As we think about the outlook for Q2 and for the remainder of 2026, do we think we can return to the same level of reported performance of maybe Q4 or Q1 2025, so in a range EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million? Should we think about that being a kind of a realistic run rate for the next couple of quarters?
Gradually, yes. Maybe for the second half of the year, yes. In transitioning for the second quarter. The contribution in HPA in the last year was highly covered by the European HPA, lower contribution from the American one. This year is going to be just the contrary. The European more exposed to the oil and gas is contributing less, and gradually the American contribution is going to be higher. It's going to improve. We said, the tough of the cycle probably has been the first quarter. It shall be improvement in the second quarter and reaching equivalent figures to the ones you are mentioning for the second semester.
That's really helpful. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Maxime Kogge from Oddo BHF. Your line is open, Maxime. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning. Good morning gents . Two questions on my side. Yeah, the first is about the Middle East conflict and its implication on the oil and gas and market within HPA. Since the conflict is driving higher oil and gas prices, it will also trigger reconstruction needs in the Middle East. Do you expect HPA to potentially benefit from that and when, if that's the case?
Okay. Well, the Middle East conflict is very uncertain, so it is very uncertain when it will end. Still, all these projects on oil and gas are long-term projects. We are not yet really seeing a recovery on the oil and gas. All with regards to investments, I think it's in a wait and see. Okay? Of course, when it comes the end of the conflict and all of these needs to restore, we expect the benefit from that. We cannot say now that we are yet seeing it. Of course, it will come, but not at this moment.
Okay, that's clear. Just a second and last one is on CapEx. I think the Q1 numbers still included a big last payment for the NAS expansion line. From now on, should we expect CapEx to step down from Q1 onwards, given that this big project is now behind?
Well, really the CapEx, because of all the CapEx that we have in place, right now, with the combination of also of Haynes starting the buildings and constructions, more or less the figure that we expect for the second quarter will be more or less similar. We, as we said, we are in a strong phase of CapEx. Last year we did EUR 311. This year we will be maybe a little bit lower than EUR 300, that's more or less stable. We will be moving some of the CapEx that now has been focused on NAS and is finishing in NAS.
We will be moving to our high investments that we have in Haynes with the starting of the buildings and structures. We don't expect the CapEx to reduce a lot for the second quarter.
Okay, thank you.
I would now hand back to Borja for any written questions.
Thank you very much. Most of the questions coming from the website were answered during the presentation and the Q&A session. With all this, I just want to thank all of you for coming and joining us on this call. As a final note, also take into account that our Q2 results presentation will be on July 24th. Have a good day, and thank you very much.