Morning everyone. Welcome to Acerinox second quarter results presentation. This quarter has been a very positive quarter for the group despite the continuing geopolitical uncertainties and regional conflicts. With an 85% quarter-on-quarter EBITDA increase, the strength of the stainless- steel division in the U.S. has again proved to be the driver of our solid results. It is noteworthy to mention the strong order book in the aerospace and defense sectors, as well as the recovery of Acerinox Europa within the European market. The new trade measures have started the 1st of July. We are optimistic with regard to the future of the European steel industry. For this presentation, we will hear from our CEO, Bernardo Velázquez, our Chief Corporate Officer, Miguel Ferrandis, and our CFO, Esther Camós.
Before we start with the presentation, let me remind you that this conference call is being broadcast on our website, acerinox.com. Now I hand you over to our CEO. Bernardo, please go ahead.
Thank you, Carlos. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this Acerinox Q2 results presentation. You all know that we have a new normal environment; that is with our tariffs, sanctions, geopolitical uncertainties, conflicts, and so on. In this environment, it is easy to focus only in the short term. We at Acerinox, we drive with our high beams. We are focusing in the long term and sticking to our strategy, loyal to our strategy. I think this is the key of the success of these results. In this macro scenario, with a strong position in United States, improvements in Europe, and focusing on efficiencies in our Beyond Excellence program, developing synergies, we can say that we are proud of this set of results. Our EBITDA, EUR 176 million, has been 85% higher than Q1, and in the total semester, EUR 271 million is 27% higher than the same period last year.
We have a stronger order book. We have higher prices. We have summer breakdowns ahead. That is the reason why our financial debt has increased due to the working capital increase, basically stocks. We are pretty confident that we will focus to go to a ratio debt EBITDA of around 2 at the end of the year. Everything is in the control, as we normally say, our focus is our strategy and control the controllables. In this situation, we are delivering reliable results. Steel consumption is low with all this situation, with these uncertainties. Steel consumption is low in all the regions. In United States, apparent demand, according to our estimations, it has gone down 8% after four years of a low cycle.
Imports are being reduced basically because of the higher transport cost and a stable situation in U.S., two points from 24% to 22%. Inventories, everybody's cautious. Inventories remain, according to our estimations, 10% below the historical average. We have the Section 232, thanks God, that is providing stability to the market, and I think is helping to the target of the U.S. industrial policies, reshoring and re-industrialization. We have seen several examples before. We have spoken about the appliance developments, new factories and new assembling lines in U.S. We have read about General Motors as another example that coming back to U.S. or moving production centers to U.S.
I think this is a reality, and we are enjoying this situation that as soon as we have more stability, more visibility, I think that we will see better consumption and better results from now. We don't see real good signs still for recovery. We're going to speak about data centers. This is true. We can see in the stainless-steel business, we see a better performance for data centers in the heat exchanger sectors. We have a stronger order book in rebars, we see some investments in infrastructure. There's a little sign that the truck industry is starting to improve what is a good sign in U.S., but it still is not enough to speak about recovery. In Europe, the situation is changing. I think the new situation is what we call a game changer.
CBAM started 1st of January, since that time, imports have gone down from 24% to 16%. This is important because the target with the new trade measures is to go to a level of 12%-13%. CBAM has already reached the level of import of what they desired in the European Union plan. With the new measures that have started in 1st of July, we can only expect consolidation of this level and stability. Stability for us means low imports. That is more local production, that is more volume, and that is better cost and better margin for us. We are very excited with this new situation in Europe. I think it's a new situation with the stainless steel in the center of the industrial policy of the European Union.
It's not only stainless steel because we have to defend all our customers, I think that finally Europe has realized that we need the industry. We need industry to provide quality employment, we need industry for the strategic autonomy reasons. This is the new situation in Europe, we are very happy and very excited with this. From the last meetings that we have. New quotas has already been published, the European Union is penalizing the countries that are responsible of the world overcapacity. This is very important because the worst penalized countries has been Taiwan and China, with a 69% of quota reduction, and Vietnam with a 30% quota reduction. This is important because they are normally countries offering lower prices and adding more distortions to the market.
In the case of South Africa, as a responsible country with a responsible supplier that is our Columbus Stainless, the European Union has kept the same level of imports, the same level of quotas that we have been using during the last three years. This is also important for us.
If we move to the HPA markets, you know our strategy has been driven by diversification. Diversification by product, diversification by geography. It's a clear demonstration, the success of this strategy of diversification when we analyze both performance of the market in America and in Europe. In America, the last two years have been driven, in our case, by what we call the AAA investment strategy, America Alloys and Aerospace. The demand in America is very strong, driven by the industrial gas turbines, driven by the space exploration, driven by the aerospace in both civil aerospace as well as in defense. All these sectors now are booming, are creating also prices going up. We have experience in the second quarter, the two highest order entries per month at Haynes. We are seeing that there is a much steeper ramp than the post-COVID effect.
In that regard, the momentum is excellent. Probably the backlog shall reach historical maximums also at the end of July. The timing is very good. It was appreciated early in the aerospace as was mentioned, the long product recovery, and then finally it has been coming to the flat product where currently we still are more base, but the prospects remain very good in regarding of the aerospace, for example, the construction, which obviously in volume is the most relevant. The construction in the narrow body aircrafts in Boeing, in Airbus according to the comments is growing more than 40%. What we have is currently for the coming years, more or less the appreciation that this is a sector which by far is going to have a spectacular performance. In addition, in the power generation, the industrial gas turbines, mostly driven by the data centers.
The electricity necessities for the data centers are going to double in the coming years. This unprecedented needed for dispatchable power generation. In this regard, the large gas fire combined cycle plants clearly are the solution. Obviously we are there. The momentum in alloys in America is brilliant. In regard to Europe, the situation is different. We still are waiting for investment projects. The most relevant sector for VDM, as you know, is the oil and gas. It's obvious that the oil and gas is facing its challenges currently with the conflict in the Middle East. Having said that, it's also obvious that as soon as the solution comes there, as soon as the situation is clarified, not only for the necessary projects that may come, but also for the reconstruction, clearly, we shall have a relevant role on that sector.
For us, we are comfortable understanding that it is a matter of time and we are patient because we shall take part of that recovery. The situation is probably not so clear of the future or when is coming the recovery in the chemical process industry. It is a sector that is in the lower part of the sector. The demand is dormant. In addition, we are seeing further complications with the Section 232, for example, in the U.S., which is not allowed also for covering that markets combined also with the entry on the most commodity types of also new Asian players. This is more or less keeping that the chemical process industry is keeping a low part of the cycle. It shall recover. Also, let us assume that there are some parts of the chemical process industry that are having probably a good momentum for the coming future.
As, for example, can be a clear case, the nuclear one. When we go to the results of the semester, the CFO shall explain in detail per section, the stainless and the High-Performance Alloys. Just a general comment, first of all, the gradual improvement during the year quarter per quarter, we have increased melting production more than 10%, reaching 540,000 tons in the second quarter. We have about 1 million tons in the first semester compared Which is 2% above the figure of last year. What is remarkable is the effect on the margins, and especially the contribution on the EBITDA. We have had a quarterly EBITDA of EUR 176, which is 85% increase the previous one. At the end of the first quarter, we made a certain adjustment and we explained them. The quarterly EBITDA was EUR 95, but we explained that we have made some adjustments.
In the second quarter has not been necessary to make any adjustments. More or less, it is not necessary to report any specific adjustments. We are in this figure of EUR 176, which makes a semester EBITDA figure of EUR 271 million. If we annualize this figure, we realize that in the current circumstances, with the depressed market in terms of demand and all the circumstance and the certainties are on place, we are able to reach this annualized figure, which should be above EUR 500 million, which clearly is a demonstration of our efficiency, the improvements in our efficiency, especially in a time in which we are also suffering the effect on certain costs related to the Middle East conflict, which has been for the semester around EUR 9 million. Could have been even worse, but also the diversification on our procurement has allowed us to minimize this effect.
Still, that effect is in place. At the end, we are clearly successful of the achievement. The operating cash flow, as has been mentioned, is driven by the increase in working capital, but that increase in working capital is needed to accompany the recovery of the market in both volumes as well as in the increase in the cost of the raw materials. We are consequently not concerned regarding this net debt reported, even though the clear commitment as our CEO has mentioned, is to be in the range of two times debt to EBITDA, which for us is in the current CapEx program in the current days of the market, we think it is a remarkable figure also.
As we announced in our first quarter results presentation, we expected a year with a positive trend of results, and this is exactly what we are presenting in this second quarter. We are presenting better results, and we are presenting better results in all the KPIs. Production, sales, EBITDA, EBIT, all the results have been better than first quarter. I think that there are two main aspects to highlight in the Stainless division. First of all is U.S., our good performance in the States with better results, higher margins, higher volumes, quarter-over-quarter, and benefiting, of course, from the alloy surcharge, despite also of the higher raw material costs. The second is the improvement of the results in Europe, both in volumes and in margins as well.
We have successfully start up the P4 that was fired last quarter, and this has allowed us to get better volumes as well as the reduction in the inputs that has been mentioned. Of course, all these increases in volumes means also higher contribution to fixed cost and therefore, higher margins. In terms of EBITDA, the Stainless-steel division has achieved an 80% higher result than in the first quarter. The margin, 12%, we are returning to the two digits margin, which is very successful. We haven't seen that margin since 2023. This is even with the weak demand momentum because the demand is not in the higher volumes. Bernardo has already mentioned the reduction both in Europe and in the States.
In terms of operating cash flow, the operating cash flow for the second quarter has been better than for the first quarter, despite also the increase in working capital and the strong tax payments that we will later explain. Going to the half year results, I think we have the same positive results. We are presenting 66% higher EBITDA in EUR 236 million, we are also growing in volumes, margins, and all the different figures. Going to the HPA. HPA is also improving versus quarter one, basically due to the better mix that Miguel already explained. Because of the stronger contribution of aerospace, this has allowed us to achieve better margins in this quarter. Other sectors, as Miguel already mentioned, like oil & gas and CPI remain weak.
We expect to continue with this positive trend for the future quarter, especially because of the high order book that we are receiving. We are in the highest levels ever achieved. We will see that results for the aerospace due to the production lead times, mostly in the second part of the year, more in the end on the year. This again demonstrates the success of our strategy to diversify to different regions, but also to different sectors, because at this moment we are benefiting from the sectors better performing. In terms of EBITDA, we are presenting an EBITDA of EUR 22 million, which is 76% better than in Q2.
In terms of operating cash flow, the operating cash flow has been negative this year due to the increase of working capital, which in HPA is most significant due to the production lead times, which makes us to purchase the raw material much in advance to be able to serve our order books. The last factor that we want to mention in High-Performance alone is the synergies. We have got accumulated synergies of EUR 16 million, which is 70% of the target that we had for this year. The target was EUR 23 million, so it's been also very successful. In terms of capital allocation, in the quarter, the EUR 176 million of EBITDA has been utilized. Of course, we have increased working capital, as we mentioned, due to the higher activity, but also to the higher prices of the raw material, especially in HPA.
We have had a strong payment of taxes. There are two settlements, especially in the U.S., in this quarter, that's the reason for the high amount of taxes paid. The third higher expenditures is CapEx. Due to the strength of our balance sheet, these allow us to invest even in the lowest parts of the cycle. As we mentioned, we are on an expansion phase of our investments, therefore, our CapEx has been strong also this quarter. If we go to the half of the year, more or less the figures are the same, so increase in working capital, taxes, and CapEx. Finally, the debt has been increased by EUR 173 million.
The net financial debt at the end of this quarter EUR 1.3 billion, with a ratio debt to EBITDA of 2.5 if we made the calculation as of June, but we expect to reduce it at the end of the year.
Okay. If we go to our vision, the three chapters included in this page show an EBITDA upside contribution of EUR 500 million. We are working on that. First of all, the synergies, as has been mentioned. We have accumulated synergies up to now of EUR 60 million. We shall reach probably for the year around EUR 23 million in this year, as committed. In regarding of the integration of the HPA division, we developed almost 700 integration activities, 89% have been completed up to now. We are with good success on that. In regarding of the investments that shall provide us an EBITDA upside of EUR 300 million, the most relevant one for the future, because the others are more in place or very close to be.
The most relevant for the future is coming in the U.S., is coming for the HPA in both plants of Kokomo and in Kentucky of North American Stainless, also for the HPA possibilities. The progress is there. We are on track, and they shall be working for the year 2028. In the other expansion projects, most of the expansion project of Nass is currently working. The expansion that was decided four years ago, you remember that plan of $250 million. This is in place. The increase in capacity of 20% in the cold roll at North American Stainless, as well as the program in VDM, which is almost working, just except the part of the powder optimizer that shall be in place first quarter next year.
In Columbus also, starting next year, we shall have in place the development of the CapEx done for covering also the electrical steel in Columbus for keeping this position of the most diversified steel plant in the world, covering electrical carbon steel as well as stainless steel. This is on track. In addition, we have the incremental EUR 120 million that it's coming from the Beyond Excellence plan, which is our operational excellence. We were very ambitious on our program, initially decide for EUR 100 million. As we clearly overperformed, you know that we mentioned that we were increasing it to EUR 120 million for this year, 2026. We already have obtained up to now even EUR 29 million. We have no doubt that we shall cover by far the plan in the remainder of the year in the second semester.
This shall be a strong contribution. We already are appreciating its effect. As has been mentioned, in the current circumstances of the market, with the prices that will still remain in Europe, the possibilities that this is giving us for being profitable and being efficient at this level of prices is a clear demonstration of the success of this policy. We are extremely proud about it, and especially of the combined effect of these three chapters for the future of the group. Last but not least, from my side is obviously the sustainability as core of our strategy. You know the plan on place is for the period 2025 to the year 2030, but the baseline is established according to year 2021. In this just one year and a half, we have obtained the targets of 44% in the carbon emissions.
We have obtained 89% success on the waste utilization. We have already obtained the target that was designed for the year 2030 of 15% of women in the staff, consequently, we are now working on a furthermore ambitious target on this regard. In this regard, it's a success. The only area in which in this year we are not proud is in regarding the accident rate. We have reached extremely low level of accident ability on our plans. We have had an excellent track month per month, most of the semester, just except one month. We have some incidents taking place in the month of April that has had its effect in the way that we have increased up to now, obtained an increase in 10% compared with the very low levels achieved last year.
Having said that, keeping in mind that the rest of the month, the track has been excellent and we are reinforcing all the measures for avoid relaxation of personal behaviors. We understand that for the remainder of the year, we shall be on track for covering our target for the year. Having said that, if we go to our recognition in this regard, obviously we keep the gold medal of EcoVadis, which includes us in the five better performers in our industry. Also, we have been included this year in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook, which means that we are in the top 15% on worldwide of every industries according to the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook member.
The conclusions, I think as we have explained, is very simple. As I said, we are driving with the high beams. We are focusing in the long term. This is very clear. We are very loyal to our strategy. Still, in this case, we never forget, and we have enough experience to manage the daily changes. We have to keep a very close eye to the daily changes because every day we have a different situation. We have tariffs, we have freights, we have sanctions, we have many things, I think we are managing this very well. We have never suffered a disruption in our supply chain, which is important.
We are still focused on the short term and even in a low scenario, in a low cycle with the, as we have mentioned, in this depressed or low demand scenario, we are reaching a very good set of results. We are proud of this. Things are changing. Things are changing, especially in Europe, because now steel is in, as I said, is in the X of the European industrial policy, so the situation can only be better. The CBAM is being very effective until now, and we think that with the trade measures that have been published, have been started the 1st of July, that will consolidate the level of imports, that will give us more volume, more stability in the market, less distortions, and that will make a healthier European market. This is very good.
We are in the low part of the cycle, as I mentioned. Still, stocks are low. Customers are not investing in new stocks. Normally, end users markets are also in the low part of the cycle. We are expecting a better reaction when we have more visibility. In HPA, we are very well diversified in all the sectors, and we are sure that sooner or later, the oil and gas market will come back for restructuring all the damages in this sector. CPI is very cyclical. Finally will come back, so the situation can only be better. We are positive for our future. In the short term, we have to be cautious because still we haven't seen the improvements due to the trade measures in Europe. We have this seasonality of this period, the breakdowns in the summer period, so we have to be cautious.
Even in this case, with all these circumstances, we have announced that our Q3 EBITDA results will be slightly higher than Q2. What is being considering all the situation, considering the low consumption and low production of this part of the year, I think is very positive. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Esther, Bernardo, and Miguel for the presentation. Let's move now to the Q&A session. Please, operator, go ahead.
Thank you. Please press star followed by the number one if you'd like to ask a question, and just ensure your devices are muted locally when it's your turn to speak. Our first question today comes from Adahna Ekoku with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good morning. Thank you very much for the presentation. My first questions are on Europe. On the improvement that you spoke about, can you speak a little bit about what your order book looks like for Q3 and Q4? Just related to that, on the profitability levels, how did this look in Q2? Are you still on track for reaching breakeven in Europe by Q3?
Okay. Thank you, Adahna. Regarding the order book, order book had been improving through the year, but now we are facing the summer months, the situation is a little bit weaker. Normally, we only have visibility for two, three months maximum. Our order book now is stable, considering that we are facing the summer months. According to the second question, we have been improving our results in Acerinox Europa since January, have been consistently improving month by month, and we can say that we reached the positive EBITDA in June. We have already reached positive results at the EBITDA level in June, but not in the accumulated numbers.
Thank you. That's very clear. Maybe just on the HPA division. Again, on hands you spoke about the strong order book. When can we expect this to start converting into a kind of stronger increase in shipments? For the whole HPA division, you'd spoken about a kind of EUR 30 million to EUR 40 million run rate per quarter in H2. Does that still stand?
Well, as we said before, the order book is very strong. The backlog also. This is more or less showing now, obviously, the advantages of increase in activity. This is material that probably shall be supplied and showing its improvement in profitability for the end of the year or starting of next year. The order books are there, but you know that the maturity in this sector is substantially higher than in the stainless one. The momentum is brilliant. The contribution is increasing quarter on quarter, but this shall have its more relevant effect in the P&L at the end of the year 2026.
Okay, thank you. I'll turn it back.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Maxime Kogge with Oddo BHF. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, gents. The first question is on valuation adjustment. They distorted a lot the picture in Q1. Can you confirm that there weren't any adjustments this time? I would have thought they might be positive given the impressive increase in EBITDA. Do you have any incorporated in the Q3 guidance as well? That's my first question.
Okay. Regarding the inventory adjustments, what we assure is that in this quarter it's been not necessary. Last quarter, we announced that we made adjustments for EUR 25 million. In this quarter, it has not been necessary to do additional adjustments to these EUR 25 million. Of course, there are always figures in which we have inventories in which we have some adjustments, some on the side of the HPA, but the adjustment has remained exactly in the same levels as for quarter one.
All right. The second question is on the pricing trends. Stainless steel prices have been more or less stable both in Europe and in the U.S. recently. If we adjust for the alloy surcharges, the best prices were basically flattish. In the U.S., we actually see a stronger traction in carbon steel prices. They are at multi-year highs. How do you explain the fact that stainless steel prices are not that strong? Is it because you're ramping up your capacity on your new core rolling mills, so you're bringing more volume, so this is somehow preventing price increases? The same question for Europe. Do you think that now on the back of the new trade regime system that has kicking since the 1st of July, should we expect now prices to increase a bit like they're already doing in carbon steel? What's your view there?
You're not the market leader in Europe, but interesting to have your view.
Thank you, Maxime. You know that speaking about prices is a very sensitive issue, so we cannot develop too much this answer. We can tell you is that in United States, we have the alloy surcharge system that is working perfectly. We are covering the ups and downs of the raw material prices with the alloy surcharge. During this period, nickel price especially went up, and with the alloy surcharge, we increased the final prices due to the higher alloy surcharge. Now we'll have a correction after the new nickel price, but it's not going to be very sensitive. In the case of Europe, the market is following the same trend. Basically, we are working with effective prices in most of the cases, so we are trying to adapt our prices to the raw material prices. Still, we haven't gained with the margins.
Still, we have enough competition in Europe. This is what we have been always saying, that the European market has enough local suppliers. That means that we can cover the European demand. That means that with low imports, we don't have a lack of production in Europe, so we have competence. This is very healthy. Very healthy for the market because we will be able to increase our volume, we will be able to develop our production and our projects, and with a better market situation, we will reach better prices, what is normal. This is a healthy business. You cannot expect that only because of three months we are going to increase our prices.
Okay. That's it. I'll turn back then.
Thank you. Next in queue we have Tommaso Castello with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the presentation. It is good to hear Europe at a turning point. I would like to focus on volumes, given the sharp decline in imports penetration from roughly to around 16% of the market against the demand. If you could help us quantify how much of this reduction has translated into incremental shipments for Acerinox and if you see it as sustainable. Also, given your current roughly 10% market share, whether you see scope to gain market share from the lack of imports going forward, or you think the volumes displaced by European domestic producers, you will take roughly the same market share that you currently hold. Thank you.
I do not have the precise numbers here. What I can tell you is that in Q1, we could not enjoy the increase of volumes of the new import situation because we did not have one of our hot and pickling lines before that suffered a fire in November 25. The line, since April, is now in operation, and since April, we are coming with the total capacity of the Acerinox factory, so we will increase our delivery by 20%. That is why in quarter three, we are reaching a better level of productiveness, and we have reached the positive EBITDA. The market shares will depend on how our competitors work and what is the performance of the rest of the market. It is something that we cannot speak about.
Sure. Thank you very much. Maybe if I may, the last one. Just looking at consensus, I think it is at around EUR 600 million for fiscal year 2026. How confident are you to get around that level?
Miguel, you can answer that. I don't want to make mistakes.
Well, I think in our sector, it's difficult to make predictions, but we are giving some messages. I give the messages that the annualized figure of EBITDA for the year should be EUR 540, keeping in mind that we are in an upward trend. There has been a strong improvement in the Q2 compared with the Q1. The Q3, we are saying, is going to be slightly better. I don't think it should be probably too ambitious, considering that we should not be far away from the figure you mentioned.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Moving on to our next question from Bastian Synagowitz with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. First question is a quick follow-up on the European volume situation. Bernardo, can I confirm, did you say that you expect European volumes to grow by 25% into Q3, and is this a delivery number? I guess your second quarter production number was really quite strong, I think up almost 100%, if I remember correctly. I guess that would not have fully translated into the same equivalent shipment number, but if you could maybe give us some color there, and then maybe the same color on the U.S. side, where production volumes were a little bit weaker. Do you still expect volumes to grow in North American Stainless as well in the third quarter? These are my first two questions.
Hello, Bastian. Thank you. The equation is very simple. The apparent consumption went down by 2% during this period. More or less, it's with some restocking at the end of the period, we can say that with demand, that was more or less flat. With a 31% of imports reduction, we have 31% more for local deliveries. This is very clear. How much of this 31% of the market are we going to take? That we will see. This is business. This is demand and production, and we have to compete in the market. We cannot say, but it's true is that the local suppliers will be able to share this 31% more of the market.
I was actually more asking on your own shipments specifically. I guess your production volumes in Q2 were up about 100%, almost, I think 80% and 98% or so. I was wondering, given the strong production level and your current order book, where would you see shipments in Europe in the third quarter in the European business?
Basically, as I mentioned, we couldn't use part of our capacity during Q1 because of the fire we suffered in our hot rolling and pickling line. This line is in operation again. It started in April, in Q2, we are able to use almost the total capacity. That means that from Q1 to Q2, Q3, we are increasing our deliveries by 20%.
Sorry, Q3 versus Q1 or Q3 versus Q2? Sorry.
Q2. I'm speaking about capacity, no deliveries.
Capacity. Yeah. Okay. Then, any indication on shipments in Q3?
No. We never give indication of this, you have to consider that we're in the summer period, we will close the Algeciras plant for two weeks in August, though this is for normal holidays, I don't know what our competitors are going to do. I don't know what the levels are. Normally, especially August, is a very weak month. Let's see September. September is going to be the key.
My last question would be on your underlying performance. I guess when you look at the second quarter, nickel prices have gone up a lot. That usually is always a very strong tailwind, particularly in the U.S., where you still work with the dual pricing mechanism and alloy surcharge. Hence, rising metal prices would give you a temporary positive. I think that will swing into a temporary negative in the third quarter, and that swing overall on your results obviously can be still probably quite meaningful. That means that if you guide for better numbers, your underlying performance obviously has to improve a lot. This improvement, Q3 versus Q2, will this be pretty much driven across all core businesses, i.e. HPA, as well as the different individual regional stainless businesses? Will each of them improve if you were to ignore the metal asset?
Too many questions in one. As I said, we have the alloy surcharge system in the United States. That means that normally when the raw materials are going up, normally the alloy surcharge mechanism let us increase prices a little bit faster than our raw material cost. This is because we use the average cost system. In this case, of course, in the United States, we have been enjoying some of a tailwind. That will not happen in quarter three. In the case of Europe, we are not using the alloy surcharge mechanism, more or less, we have been following the raw material strength, we haven't enjoyed this tailwind in Europe. This is just the basic business.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Further question from the call? We can move for some questions that we have from the website, the webcast. We have one coming from Iñigo Busquets from Kepler Cheuvreux, and it's about the U.S. listing. It says, could you please give an update on this potential project, calendar, and what is the plan? A dual listing or an IPO of the U.S. business?
Hi, Iñigo. There's no answer for this. We haven't taken any decisions. There's no news in the U.S. listing. As you perfectly know, we are considering and studying this possibility. We are preparing the group for a potential IPO, but we haven't taken any decision yet. We are still studying the market, studying the situation, as you know, many issues, because this is not a simple decision.
The last question is coming from Enrique Yáguez of Bestinver. It's regarding working capital and expected evolution in the second half of the year.
As you know, we remain on our control of working capital. We have a very strict plan in the group to try to reduce working capital levels and days. We continue with our program. Because of the seasonality in some of the markets, we would expect to reduce working capital for the third quarter. The trend in terms of that, we had also the dividends in the third quarter, we will compensate that with a bit of a reduction of working capital. It also much depend on the prices of the raw materials, will depend also on the level of nickel. In terms of inventory turnages and days, we are still with our control, we expect to reduce it.
I think that we solved the problem from the call. If there is any further question, please operator, go ahead.
Thank you. We will take our next question from Francisco Riquel with Alantra. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Yes. Thank you. Just one for me. Regarding the EBITDA that you have printed in Q2, I wonder if you can share with us what would have been the EBITDA without the losses in the European business. You mentioned that Europe is already in breakeven. Just to want to assess, to have a better sense of the underlying profitability now that Europe has turned the corner, and if you think that we are already close to EUR 200 million, if you can give an indication. Thank you.
In the previous results presentation, more or less, we explained that our target was that with the improvements in Acerinox Europa, any time in the third quarter, we should reach the monthly positive EBITDA or above breakeven. This has been anticipated. As Bernardo mentioned, we have reached this level in June. On a monthly basis, June, we have changed the trend. This is a very good indication for the future. Having said that, it is true that at the end is the first month in which has been achieved. Gradually, we shall obviously be following the track on the third quarter, even though the seasonal slowdown in Europe and combined with the fact, as we mentioned, that we are more or less stopping operations for half the month of August.
The challenge should be that now what we are going to be neutralizing this effect of August is in position of reporting a positive contribution for the quarter. This is going to be gradual. With the current momentum that is facing the European market, let's see the evolution. It is difficult to predict. As has been said before, it is a fact of with demand and it is a fact of prices, and let's see which is the evolution of the prices. Bernardo mentioned we are in effective transaction prices. Up to now, the prices have been going up following the raw materials. If we consolidate the level of prices with a lower nickel, this may be better margins but still is too soon to appreciate it. We are moving to August, and you know that the European market gives signs in September.
It still is soon, but what's very good for us is that we are there. We already have seen the positive monthly figures and clearly, we are in position for making it consistent.
Okay. Thank you. Just last one for me, it's regarding the EBITDA upside that you see of EUR 500 million that you mentioned in the presentation. If you can comment over what base it is. If it is over the 2025 or 2026 EBITDA, and how much of this upside comes from external market conditions, or if you think that is just due to your own internal levers. Thank you.
Paco, when we calculated this number, it is based on technical analysis and considering the increases in efficiencies, increases in volumes, and what the new CapEx will contribute to our numbers. Normally, we base it in the average EBITDA. We call it the through the cycle EBITDA, and this is something that we can consider with ups and downs, of course. If prices are lower, we'll be below EUR 500 million. If the prices are better, we'll be above that. We consider the average situation.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll move to our next question from Dominic O'Kane with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I know we've spoken about the revaluations, but I just want to come back to the question because I'm finding it quite confusing. I think in the earlier comment, you mentioned that there was no requirement for a Q2 inventory revaluation. Again, can I just push you on whether that actually was an inventory revaluation? Because you don't disclose it in your adjusted EBITDA. Is that to say that you're not reporting it going forward, or it's just that the value was zero? In addition to that, if we're looking forward, I think there's some inconsistency as to which number we're looking at. For Q1, the focus and the headline EBITDA was adjusted EBITDA.
Can you just confirm to us as we move from quarter to quarter, what is the EBITDA number that you're going to be quoting, and will there be disclosure on an ongoing basis about what the revaluations are, please?
Thank you. Thank you, Dominic. I will try to clarify this figure. Okay. One thing is the inventory adjustments and evaluations that we normally report and makes us to report an adjusted EBITDA on the first quarter. Okay. Let's say the valuation of inventories was of EUR 25 million, and this is the one that we have not changed for this quarter. Okay? That's a different thing. The different thing is the inventory revaluation due to the higher prices of nickel. Okay? That is what Bernardo has already explained, which is in the U.S., due to the alloy surcharges that we apply in the sales, okay, we get benefited from the higher prices of nickel at some point. Because of our valuation of inventories at an average, we get some time until achieving these values, and that is benefiting us.
It is true that it has an effect in the short term in the States, this effect, because of the alloy surcharge mechanisms in Europe, is not working. We are not benefiting on that in Europe. In this quarter, in the States, we have had a tailwind because of this inventory revaluation, that's a different thing from the adjustment that I was explaining, which we have not changed from last quarter.
Again, if I look at the adjusted EBITDA in the account, the value for Q2 is 0. Is that to say that the nickel and the alloy surcharge revaluations exactly canceled out the -25 from the first quarter? Is it just that you're not going to be providing those revaluations on a go-forward basis?
We will only provide that number when it's a significant number that really it's impacting our EBITDA, In this case, the EBITDA has not been impacted by that.
I'm sorry, if I could just push on that one more time. What constitutes a significant number? Are we talking a single-digit number or a double-digit number?
No, it's just when the nickel goes down. We have to make adjustment because our expectation for the next period is going to be a huge impact. We have to do devaluation of our inventory. In this case, we are not doing any. That's the reason why we are not reporting any more this figure. This is business as usual. Okay. We of course, are impacted by the trends of the raw materials. When raw material is going down, because of the accounting policies, we need to anticipate that losses. That is not the case for this quarter. We do not have any need to anticipate any losses because we are not in this situation right now.
Sorry, let me try.
Thank you. Sorry, just on the ongoing basis, will we focus on EBITDA or adjusted EBITDA?
Let me try to clarify. We make inventory adjustments for adjusting the realizable value of our inventory. We do not reevaluate the inventory. When the market goes up, when the nickel goes up, we experience a tailwind because at the end, clearly, this is having a quick effect when we realize our inventories. We do not reevaluate. What we normally do, we anticipate as a prudence issue is, we are making adjustments to our inventory to net realizable value. This is what was done in the first quarter. Its effect that, consequently, our inventory was adjusted in the first quarter. At the end, as a consequence of that, this material has been realized. At the end of the second quarter has not been necessary to make any inventory adjustment because our inventory is properly valued for a net realizable value.
Consequently, has not been made any adjustment. The one that was done at the end of the first quarter has had its effect because that material has been sold out already.
Okay. That makes sense. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll move to our next question from Tristan Gresser with BNP Paribas. Your line is open.
Yes. Hi, thank you for taking my questions, and apologies if I repeat others, I joined a bit late. In Europe, you sound pretty constructive. What we saw in May, June, and maybe July is that alloy surcharge, in the region, were moving up, but transaction prices were steady. On paper, that would imply maybe some margin squeeze or some softness there, but your message is pretty positive. On a spot basis, when you look at your order book in Europe, can you comment a bit on the margin contribution and the expectation for Q3 and Q4? That would be my first question.
Thank you, Tristan. Expectations for Q3 and Q4 is very difficult to predict. What I can tell you is that in Europe, as you know, we have lost in most of the customers the alloy surcharge mechanism, and we are working with effective prices. In some end users, we are still keeping the alloy surcharge mechanism. Now, this is very comfortable because you apply immediately the ups and downs of raw material prices. In the case of most of the other customers, including distribution, we are working with effective prices. This is something that we suffer for this Asian invasion of imports. Then you have to try to negotiate every single order, trying to adapt the new situation according to market conditions to the raw material prices.
I think that thanks to the good situation of imports, we have been able to pass all these increases of raw materials to our customers, including freight and including gas. Also, we are keeping a good level of margins that if are improvements, is not due to the difference between price and cost. It's due to our efficiencies and our higher volume. Now, this is something that you always have to remember. It is not only a question of alloy surcharge, nickel prices and this thing. That we have a lot of homework trying to reduce our costs and increase our efficiency on metallic deals and everything. This is the situation. In Q3, are we going to be able? This is a question of, is market. I don't know. The demand is healthy. I am sure that we will accelerate our order entry.
This is very important in our market. As far as we extend our delivery times, we are able to negotiate higher prices. Until now, we are still working with a low visibility, especially now that we have the summer period ahead. Let's see what happen. We are pretty optimistic because we think that with the lack of distortion, because it's not only the level of imports, it's the level of distortion that most of these importers were applying to the market. Many times, when nickel prices or raw material prices were going up, the excess of production, especially in China, but also in Taiwan, in Vietnam, in India sometimes, this excess of production was going to Europe at very low prices and destroying totally the market structure. Now, this is very healthy because we will not suffer this now.
From now on, we can expect a better behavior of the European market, a more organized and structured European market following the ups and downs of raw material prices, but especially following the market conditions, following the demand and the level of production of the current players, the local players. This is very healthy. This is business as usual. I think this is nothing new. We are coming back to the period that we enjoyed, and we were very profitable, all the European players, before the invasion of this import due to the overcapacity that was created in the Asian countries. Now we will be in a more healthy situation.
Okay. Now that's clear. Maybe just two quick follow-up on that. If I were to really simplify that, stainless steel prices in Europe went up in H1. Maybe in Q1, you saw that spread increase, and in Q2, it kind of posed. Is that a fair assessment? Now you're working on efficiencies to drive a bit higher. Would that be a fair assessment? When it comes down to the CBAM, the quarter structure, et cetera, the fact that the market is structurally going to be in a better footing, do you have maybe a timeline on when do you think you will be able to revert back to the old dual pricing system with base price and a lower surcharge?
I'm sorry, Tristan, my compliance officer is following this conversation, we cannot speak about prices.
Okay. My second question is just on the U.S., sorry again, maybe you touched on it, you flagged some soft demand. I'm sorry to also get about prices, what would be required to move from maybe a steady margin outlook to something a bit more positive? Is it demand or even with the current outlook you're seeing into H2, you could see maybe some positive momentum there?
According to my experience in this market, especially in stainless steel, you need better demand to increase your prices. A good KPI for you to follow this possibility is looking at the order book. When we extend our delivery time because we have had a strong order book, it's time to increase prices. This is the normal mechanism; this is something that I can speak about because it's just experience. It has always been the same. If we are not filling our capacities, if we have a short order book, we need to feed the plans because we are very sensible to volume. All the competitors is the same. We have learned to manage our capacity. I think that now we are very flexible, more flexible than we were before, for sure. I think also our competitors have done the same homework.
If we need to feed our plants to a reasonable level that we can be competitive, when we are extending our delivery times, normally it's when price increases are happening.
I think in the release, you talked pretty positively about your order books. Would you be able to comment on those currently in the summer?
It's very difficult to increase your order book when you don't have customers because they are on holidays. I think we will have to wait until the end of the summer period to see how efficient all these new measures are being.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
Okay. There is no further question. Thank you very much for joining in this second quarter results presentation. Thank you for your questions and enjoy the summer break. Thank you very much.