Good morning and welcome. Thank you very much for being in the Capital Markets Day for Aena. So, our President and CEO, Maurici Lucena, Javier Marín, Executive Vice President, Elena Mayoral, General Manager of Airports, and María José Cuenda, General Manager for Commercial and Real Estate. We'll share with you the main lines of the strategic plan for the term 2026 and the one we shared with you in November 2020. To now we'll have Q&A sessions. So without further ado, I'm going to give the floor to our President, Maurici, please.
Thank you, Ignacio. Good morning to you all. Welcome to the airport, Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas. We're here today for a very good reason, which is that we have met beforehand, before we expected, the goals we presented publicly in November 2022, so we feel obliged. But for a good reason, let me emphasize this: to update the strategic plan of Aena 2020 to 2026. On 10 November 2022, we presented a strategic plan at a complex time, and it was so because, look, it clearly seemed that, well, the exit from the pandemic would be consolidated. As you know, it particularly affected the air transport. But at the same time, it was in November 2022 that, well, we saw some uncertainties there that hindered drawing up the strategic plan we presented. Well, nonetheless, at that time, we deeply debated in the board of directors.
I take the chance to greet the first Vice President of the Board of Directors and other members that are here, who are witnesses of the debate that was held about whether it was worth to make the effort of making future projections on what we believed at the time would be the best projections for the activity of the company. After that debate, obviously, well, we have pros and cons, and we believed that, yes, it was worth drawing our roadmap for the following years, even if just for the time we were leaving behind was, well, very complicated. But we knew in November 2022 there were some uncertainties that wouldn't be cleared but without time. Only time would clear those doubts. But I mean, being cautious was the principle that reigned over the strategic plan in November 2022.
So on the first part of my speech, I'm going to focus on the visibility that has changed, how much visibility we've earned from November 2022 until now. And then I'll share with all of you the goals that, well, for good reasons, we have amended, making them more ambitious. The Executive VP and the second VP of the B oard of Directors, Javier Marín, and the two general managers, Elena Mayoral and María José Cuenda, will subsequently detail some of the aspects that I will just mention in my initial intervention. And then I will take the floor again, more, to conclude but to try to answer to some of the messages that both myself and the Executive VP and both general managers will share with you in the next minutes.
So let us focus for a while on the year that we left behind just a few months ago. This is 2023. Last week, we provided a lot of information in presenting our results. It was a very good day, and I want to emphasize again the satisfaction it entails for the management team and for the board of directors to have made it to a time where we publicly presented excellent results of the company that we go into the strategic review plan that we share with you today.
I want once again to underline that the, well, the management team has had a long continuity over time, at least in my tenure, since the start of summer 2018, and I believe has, well, reacted, in an excellent way to, to an extraordinary period that if we had tried to imagine this in 2018, we wouldn't have been able to do that because who would have thought that our activity, the air transport, would, well, practically stop, completely stop. I think that all the board of directors have been, have risen to the challenge, and I think we've protected the company at complicated times. Also, we paved the ground for the recovery, now that today is not just a reality but, well, it projects into the future, a very nice future.
So more than completing recovery of the air traffic in the Aena airports, we were able to overcome the figures of the year before the pandemic, 2019. We mustn't forget this was a groundbreaking year in terms of activity and economic results. Also in 2023, and I'm thinking about the visibility I mentioned before, our visibility in less than 1.5 years since we presented our strategic plan. For example, in 2023, we concluded processes, well, procurement processes that are very important both in terms of income and expenses. I'm going to mention two, just two. Both myself and the general commercial manager will delve deep on this. But I was saying, in 2023, we concluded the rebidding of the tax-free shops with very good results.
About the expenses, we were able to hire the security services, as you all know, is one of the expense items that is more important for the company, about the international sphere. Between October and November 2023, we had, well, the satisfaction of taking operational control for the 11 new airports Aena is responsible of in Brazil that are around the biggest airport in Congonhas in São Paulo. In fact, two months ago or so, we previously presented to the regulators, the aviation regulators in Brazil, the development plans for CapEx investment and the works that have to do with the new 11 airports. Also in the award of the new airports in the northeast of Brazil, Aena ended with a very good result, all the compulsory works of those 6 airports.
So I would say that of the 17 airports in Brazil, they are, well, very well, the way they are a nice future, because of the volume of the traffic we manage in Spain. We forget the milestone Aena met in Brazil where, as of today, we manage 20% of the air traffic of that huge country, Latin America. And let me repeat this: 20% of the traffic. On the other hand, from a macroeconomic perspective, the Spanish economy has behaved a little bit better than expected in November 2022, which is excellent news. You can see that for 2024, most of the retail services in Spain and international services are, well, chaining into an upward trend, the Spanish economic growth. And this is good news, of which we can also, well, take profits.
In Aena, particularly the tourism sector in relative terms, have behaved better than the rest of the or most of the economic sectors that make the map of the Spanish economy. So the result of the economy both in terms of activity and economic terms in 2023 have been better than ever. No, it was an amazing year but also better than what we presented in November 2022. And also, I'd like to emphasize something that maybe the analysts and investors consider, well, not to be as important because it cannot be it, it doesn't show in their, well, in the spheres. But it's important for us, no, for our clients, no, the airlines and our customers.
This is that the service quality in the Aena airports is of a very high level, I may say, if I may say. This is, well, we have to be further acknowledged if we take into account that the traffic is higher than ever. Also, if we compare this with the quality with which other European airports have provided service to the users in the last years, and it has clearly been worse. I mean, we don't wish them any ill, but we hope every airport to work well. But it does emphasize that Aena has done more by keeping the highest quality in their services.
So I think that from the financial standpoint, beyond the fact that the financial markets are very difficult to, well, to predict, to analyze, but I do believe that, on average, there's an acknowledgment for the good performance of the company in 2023. The share of Aena was increased by 35% its value. I'll have to take a look at real time at the market price. But if I'm not mistaken, there has been a price increase of 80% or so, which, in my opinion, is in sync with the results and the future projections of the company. If we focus on the activity, well, on our turnover and the rest of the things that we'll share with you, you can see in the chart that the image shows that the pandemic is behind us.
And not just that, but as I was saying, we are constantly in the last, you know, months, days, weeks of groundbreaking activity, record figures, as you can see, because of the press release we made this morning to the CNMV, National Securities Market Commission. We expect for these figures to continue this way. We believe 2024 to be a new groundbreaking year in terms of activity. 2023, the air traffic increased by almost 3% compared to the previous year, 2019. Well, in the world, the air traffic recovered in 95% compared to 2019. So this means that we are eight, nine points above the average recovery of the rest of the world in Europe and in and in and in Europe too. Why is this taking place? The reasons, well, there are several reasons.
Some can be attributed to Aena, but I honestly believe there are others that are more important. And probably since the World Economic Forum said well, emphasized the fact that Spain is, in the first place, in terms of, tourism, competitiveness together with Japan and the U.S., that's the main reason. But also, it's true that if our airports didn't work well, well, we wouldn't be as competitive in the tourism sector. And also, from the physical standpoint, it would be a country that is unable to manage the large activity volume of the company. So Aena takes well, can benefit from a vibrant tourism activity, but also, it's true that if Aena didn't work as well, the tourism couldn't reach our country.
So I think it's something that all the agents in the tourism sector, even if sometimes they don't acknowledge this because of their statements, in the long term, they do, that we are an essential link in the good work of the most important sector in the Spanish economy. In the next chart, you can see the commercial activity that behaved extraordinarily well in the year 2023. We experienced an increase of total sales of 17.3% compared to 2019. So the total sales per passenger in 2023 were 14% above 2019. And the revenue by variable and fixed income were almost 23% above the revenues from 2019.
Also, an important thing that we incorporated in the next, well, the forecast until 2026 comes from the fact that since 2022, we are seeing excellent results in the bidding processes in the commercial sphere. And this is translated in increases income increase that are very significant for Aena. Well, in addition to the economic results, I think that this consolidates and strengthens an element that, in the worst times of the pandemic, some people questioned, which is the minimum guaranteed income model, which is very particular in, in Spain, but it works very well. And it's clearly one of our hallmarks of the company. If we move on to the results now, I won't dive deep into them because you know them well, because we analyzed them jointly last week.
I only want to emphasize that we, we have already approved the proposal for the ordinary GSM of a gross dividend of EUR 7.67 for year 2023, charge to year 2023. I want to emphasize that in spite of the inflation of the last years, well, of how this inflation will affect the future, I believe that we have been able to moderate the progress of the OpEx. I want finally to emphasize that in 2023, we have met the economic and financial goals we set ourselves in November 2022 when we presented the strategic plan in terms of EBITDA, EBITDA margin, and net debt in relationship to EBITDA. Well, we have the Secretary of State for Transport, who just joined us.
I want to thank the Secretary of State for Transport for being here today because he represents our main shareholder with 51% of the government for, and also for the support. José Antonio, Secretary of State, that your presence represents in, our presentation today of the strategic plan for analysts and investors. Well, back to the presentation now. Well, we think about in the management team and in the board of directors meetings when updating the strategic plan, one of the things we thought about was if we wanted to, well, take the opportunity to, change the general framework of the strategic plan.
There wasn't much debate beyond the, well, wording of the amendment because we were clear on something, which is that in November 2022, we what we presented as the main pillars of the company, well, they this is still up and running today, and they will be with us in the following years. It was mainly about amending the goals that from today, we set as goals in the following years. Inside the strategic plan, that in a few words, it means what we've done other times. Our ambition is still to be the best, to be the best, especially in terms of safety, efficiency, hospitality, of course, the service quality for our passengers. Also in terms of sustainability, I think that in one of these aspects, we are the best already. We want to, well, maintain our leadership, and we want to improve.
But, in the last instance, we'd like unanimously, as I know it happens in some countries when a minister or an authority, aviation authority, talks to Aena, for them to immediately think that they're talking to the best airport company in the world. And I think this is happening already to a certain degree. So our activity, as you all know, can be summarized in the aviation activity. So the responsibility Aena has from the moment a passenger enters the airport perimeter until they are, well, almost about to take off with all the processes it entails. And our second pillar, the commercial pillar, which is the commercial activity, you know it has been expanded in an impressive way in the last decades. And probably the trend is for this to continue.
So in the long term, in terms of profitability, that trend, well, the structural trend, will be strengthened, in the sense that the profitability of the company will come more and more from the commercial activity, less from the aviation activity. So it's essential for us that we mustn't forget that, some years ago, and this is something that it is more and more severe every day, the commercial activity, it can be seen in all the different spheres, corners of the company. And we will be able to see this more later. Now, about the strategic goals, this is, well, the news today. We start with the aviation activity. Now, passenger goals. As you know, last year, we were able to overcome it by almost 3% the previous record. And I'm talking about Spain in 2019.
And what we can announce today is that in 2024, our main statistic center, then the general manager for airports, Elena, can elaborate, if you want, about the different scenarios. But I wanted to simplify the message in telling you that our main statistic is 294 million passengers in Spain. If this figure is met, this would entail 3.8% increase in passengers. And this is real terms, not nominal terms. So our goal for the 300 million passengers, if nothing strange happens, we'll be able to meet it in 2025. And at the end of the strategic plan, which coincides with the end of the DORA II, our regulatory framework, the DORA, the DORA 2022-2026, as Aena 2026, our focus is to be around the 310 million passengers. So 310 million passengers is a lot of passengers.
And this means that it entails a great effort and attention by the company so that all those passengers can flow in an, well, in a natural way and, in the less uncomfortable way in our airports. And this helps me to link this with Aena and the rest of the world. It's now, instead of just taking into account Spain, we add the consolidated perimeter, which is other airports where Aena has a part or a stake, full ownership or majority stake. So I am adding London Luton. And here, I'm including the six airports of the northeast in Brazil, also the 11 airports in Brazil, led by the one in São Paulo.
In 2026, with a very high probability, we'll be able to have the satisfaction of managing over 1 million passengers a day in all our airports all over the world, or the ones where that we control or the ones where we have full ownership. And let me repeat the figures. Over 1 million passengers a day, which is a figure that is not just a sexy figure, no, from the marketing standpoint, but also that, I mean, speaks for itself about the huge effort of all the employees in the company and also all the workers, vendors, airlines that are part of the air transport, no, of the consolidated perimeter of Aena. Something I would like to emphasize too in this strategic update is that you know that DORA II, well, intends to freeze the airport tariffs, airport, fees.
They may be muddy, if you follow, well, by the book, what the regulation says and all the different amendments and the for the final figures. But in simple terms, so for the maximum income by passenger, Aena has from 2022 to 2026, the fees are frozen, no, the famous IMAAJ or IMAG . And why do I tell you this? Well, I'm telling you this because in 2024 and at the end of 2023, there was this controversy, public controversy about the increase in the airport fees in 2024. In Aena, finally, we approved what the regulation sets. And I think that this is a good sign of the how, well, much we can focus the Spanish regulating framework, no, for the, well, sometimes benefiting us and sometimes not so much. But it sets the rules of the game, and they are understandable.
That increase in 2024, as I was saying, will be an exception in these years because what we expect is that the inflation won't produce the regulatory adjustment, a different significant difference with what we can expect by freezing the maximum revenue per passenger. And this, well, the Executive VP will explain this later about the operational expenses. The only thing I'd like to communicate, and this is a constant concern of the company, of the management, of the board of directors, that the strict monitoring that has been done the last years, you will see and I don't want to give any advance to the images that will be shown from the Executive VP. But you will see that not only we are the more efficient, but we have increased the distance with our competitors.
But this will be further explained by the Executive VP. So our promise is that we will remain vigilant in the OpEx progress in the following years, well, simply because there's a hallmark of the efficiency for Aena is something we cannot give up, and it will continue to be so in the future. Also, the General Manager of Airports will explain this. There's a great investment wave that is coming from 2027, no, from DORA III. And this is an investment wave that, when I was talking 2019, early 2020, it was expected to be very strong in this DORA, but the pandemic happened, and this postponed the calendar for two years. But the calendar is, well, we're almost there, and the airport general management is working on the proposals in making consultations and discussion and debates with the airlines in preparing in 2025 the DORA III.
That will be analyzed by the Ministry of Transport. That, well, in the end, they make a proposal of DORA III for the Council of Ministers. So is the Ministry of Transport and the government the ones who finally approve what Aena, together with the airlines, through consultations, presents. But I think it's clear. And I think that the government, to a, well, to some extent, shares our forecast that there will be a strong investment in terms of capacity for the years to come. And so the Executive VP and the General Manager of Airports, we give you more details about this. Now, let's move on to the new goals of the commercial activity. I can well remember the debates that we had, intense debates, both, in the executive, SteerCo and the Board of Directors about the commercial goals that were defined November 2022.
There was a time when I felt almost dizzy. But of course, I endorsed for the goals, the commercial goals to be the ones we finally communicated publicly. But I mean, we came from difficult times, and we were knocked down by the pandemic, by the general manager, María José Cuenda, well, who is very ambitious, I must say. She was able to convince us with her criteria and the set ambitious goals. The excellent news is that, well, we are almost going to make them twice as good, no, they are even better than what the commercial general manager thought at this time. So what is this optimism? What does it translate into? Now, let me summarize it into figures.
In November 2022, we said that the commercial revenues will be increased by more than 23% in 2026 compared to 2019, and that the commercial revenue per passengers would be increased at least by 12% compared to 2019 in 2026. Our commitment is, if nothing extraordinary takes place, our new goal is that the commercial revenues and real estate to increase in 2026 by 48% compared to 2019, and the commercial revenue per passenger to increase by 32%. Is there a catch there? I mean, yes, we must admit that there's a catch. There's been a lot of inflation, a high inflation, and we hope this to come down. But there's an inflation stock since 2019 that, fortunately enough and I'm saying fortunately enough because you may have inflation at that well, not translate that in your business. But fortunately, that inflation is pushing upwards our revenues.
But if we take out the inflation, our relative numbers in 2019 are very nice figures. On the other hand, in addition to what we know until 2023, which is very important, the starting point is solid. In 2023, I think that there were contracts awarded for the tax-free shops. I remember when we made another bid, some experts in the sector told us that it would be very difficult for us to keep the rents from previous contracts for the tax-free shops. Well, you can see because it's public information that the rents are higher and will have a significant increase with the new award. And in restaurants and shops, the awards have been very good. Also, in 2024, we will have bidding processes for important contracts. And I want to emphasize the rent-a-car, which has very good forecasts.
And finally, the real estate business is going very well. And we hope this to be maintained in the years to come. Now, I'm going to move on to the international activity. I'm just going to repeat some of the messages I conveyed last week, no, in the presenting the results. Our goal in the international arena is once again, let me say this, to digest the important volume of international activity that Aena has incorporated in the last years. I'm talking about Brazil mainly, not to manage 20% of the air traffic in Brazil is not a simple thing. Things are going well, but we want them to want to continue this and to do even better. So what will we do with new opportunities?
Our goal, and I'd say it's a soft goal, if we may in 2026, would like to increase the stake in international EBITDA in Aena by 15%. But if we cannot do this, we'll be happy because it will mean that we didn't find good international opportunities. And if we do so, we'll be happy too because it means that new projects came up, good projects came up. What I don't want, as Jordi Mercader was saying, the old President for the water in Barcelona. He said, "I'd rather lose or miss an opportunity than acquire a problem." So this is the summary of our approach in Aena when we analyze an international project. And this means that our approach in analyzing international projects will be opportunistic.
If there is something that fits, no, in the intrinsic value of the asset, economical parameters, and regulatory quality, including the well, the country risk, and we have the financial ability to tackle it, we will. But if we don't, well, we're okay too. We are well aware. I told you last week that our most precious asset is the money of the shareholders. And even the one that is not distributed in dividends, well, it is from an accounting perspective, like well, the equity of the company. And this is sacred for us and also in analyzing the international projects. Last year, I think we were able to reach some relevant milestones. We increased the technical capacity in Luton to 1 million passengers, additional passengers. Also, we finished the works.
They were quite complicated ways in the six airports of the northeast Brazil. We took effective control, operational control of the new 11 airports in Brazil without any operational incident. Also, in December, we communicated to the Brazilian regulatory authorities our initial proposal for CapEx for works in the six airports whose control we just took, no, the ones that are around the airport of Congonhas in São Paulo. Another news in the strategic update can be placed in terms of sustainability. I'm going to explain this very briefly because I think this can be understood very well. So the goal of the Net Zero air transport has for the horizon 2050. It's clear that the technological difficulties will go for the aircraft manufacturers. So also, well, further influence the airlines. But the Net Zero in 2050 is also the horizon of the airports.
It's been years since we pushed forward or pushed backwards the goal for 2040. Now we have an additional leap in our net-zero goal. I can guarantee you that we will be there to reach net-zero by 2030. Then in the debate, we can give some details. In addition to, well, bringing it forward 10 years, I want to say that we aligned the ACA certificates of our airports with this goal. So we will increase the number and the level of those certificates for our airports. And you know, we'll see this too in the GSM that we've seen important progress in the decarbonization of Aena in the level one and two carbon emissions. But and this is important to say, we have seen some relevant progress in the level three emissions. So from other parties that, well, develop their activities in our infrastructures.
In order to meet the environmental requirements, Aena has to stimulate those other parties so that they can meet their goals. Let me give you two examples here. In the new handling licenses, we have, well, for 2024, we've been able so that all the handling vehicle fleets that will go around the Aena airports, almost all the fleets will be sustainable, so electric vehicles. Also, our airports are ready to provide as much sustainable fuel, no, SAF, as the airlines require now in the next years. Let me end here for saying the to translate the strategic update into economic parameters. This is how it goes. Our commitment is that the EBITDA, well, the first VP holds a chair in econometry. I'm sure will ask me to moderate how much I'm putting emphasizing this information.
But with our information, we believe we can reach in 2026 a consolidated EBITDA that is 20% higher than 2023, no, compared to 2019. So we compare the EBITDA margin of Aena S.M.E. of 59% on our goal. And this will be explained later by the Executive VP, is to preserve 59% already, met in 2023. So the net debt and EBITDA ratio is where we believe it will be in 2026, which is at 2. And, probably it will may go down in the following years, especially if our activity is, just organic.
Something important for our shareholders, we, well, we can hold even more firmly in our update the payout of 80% of net profit, which places Aena as clearly the airport company that is the most attractive in the dividend policy, which benefits to the two categories we have in our shareholders, no, the private shareholders and the government, no, our public shareholder, that represents all the Spanish citizens. Now, I'm going to give the floor to the Executive VP, the General Manager of Airports, and the General Manager, General Commercial Manager, so Javier. The floor is yours.
Thank you, President, Secretary of State, and shareholders, directors, and friends. Good morning to you all, and thank you for being here. I hope that the information that we are providing is useful to be able to somehow predict what Aena will do from now until 2026, this year, and the next two years. So three years where, as the president mentioned, there's still some uncertainty. We came out of the COVID crisis. Many things have changed. But there are still many uncertainties. Aena, well, the results of 2023 have been presented a few days ago. We're very good. The forecasts are still very good. But we have to work with, well, the clouds that we don't know if it may rain or not. But we have to take them into account.
We have carried out actions inside Aena with the management teams oriented well, aimed at pulling down the risks related to the uncertainties in what we can handle, and especially, well, hiring services, the procurement or commercial operators to at least minimize the market risk by these operators and to have some visibility, a great visibility, I would say, as we will see later on some revenues and expenses. I'm going to elaborate on the strategic goals that the president mentioned already. I will refer initially to the national activity. I'll talk about the activity in Spain, giving some data on the essential data that make our financial statements, so revenues, expenses, and CapEx, so that we can have some visibility on what we believe will happen in the next three years.
Then the two general managers will elaborate on specific action with more detail, the different lines of revenues or aspects related to expenses or with the infrastructure development, CapEx. And then we'll come back to the international activity. So before talking of the elements I mentioned, I'd like to remind you, well, something that many of you already know is how each of the four segment contributes to the EBITDA of the company. We finished 2023 by excluding the reversal of the northeast airports in comparable terms with an EBITDA that is above, well, EUR 100 million is above the one in 2019. But we see a different picture of the company. The segments don't weigh as much in a similar EBITDA. In blue, you can see the commercial revenue, no, the commercial EBITDA. There was 37% in 2019, and now it's almost 43% in 2023.
So on the other hand, the aviation segment has gone from 58 to 47. The reasons are obvious, and we already explained them. But the commercial segment has been able to, well, to include inflation to a certain extent. We have added also the consumer habits too that are, well, very high consumer habits, also adding some singular elements such as the Brexit that has favored the consumer in Spanish airports. And, well, we have benefited from that too because the tourism and the British passengers, one of the main passengers in our flow and also the rents of the commercial contracts. So the part of the, say, of the rents that has been transferred into our commercial revenues. Also, we have the aviation segment that supports the most of the OpEx expenses in the company.
And in terms of revenue, has been frozen, as you know, with slight variations, but on a frozen base throughout the five years. Also, on the other hand, the real estate segment is growing, no. It's an activity that will grow little by little. It will add, it will entail adding up different small plots to generate EBITDA. And also, we can see international activity, the international activity that is in our consolidation perimeter. We have Luton and ANB as a component of BOAB, which is the 11 airports in São Paulo based in Congonhas. We took over the 11 airports, but it's not yet consolidated. So yeah, EBITDA recovery with a larger diversification of the activities and a change in the weight of each of the segments.
In 2026, the picture will look more like the one from 2023 than the one from 2019 with a larger element on international business. Regardless of the mention the president made to our ambition of reaching 15%, regardless of that, of, of meeting that goal, the three societies we have in the consolidation perimeter, Luton, ANB, and BOAB, will make the international segment grow in their contribution to EBITDA. So before talking about revenue, we need to talk about the activity. We mentioned our best estimate for this year and the end of the year, EUR 294 million for 2024 and EUR 308 million for the end of the term. As this is our best estimate with the data available now. This takes us to a central scenario of an average accumulated annual growth of 2.9% CAGR.
So in a higher scenario would be almost 4% of accumulated growth for 2023-2026. If we look at the end of 2023, the data in January with double-digit growth, and we are also on double-digit growth in February already. March, take into account that we have the Easter holiday, which is an important holiday period that contributes to the traffic growth in Spain. We believe we could have even higher traffic figures. But as I was saying at the beginning, there are some uncertainties. We've seen the figures from January that were very good in Spain but not as good in Europe.
Our main markets that make for account for our traffic, France, UK, we can see how the domestic traffic are way below in January, way below than the one they had in 2019, with, well, they come to Spain because there's almost 283 million we had last year. The ones that came in January came here. But when the domestic market of an original market doesn't grow and doesn't recover the activity, we have to take this into account, no, for our forecasts. So, we believe that this estimate, this forecast is, reasonable, that it takes us to estimate growth of 3.8% this year in 2024, 3% in 2025, and 1.8% in 2026. Now, about revenues and on the aviation side, the main two drivers is, passengers and fee. So we talked about the passengers and, and the tariff or the fee about the tariff.
As this is frozen with slight adjustment, but the DORA is approved for five years, EUR 9.89 per passenger. On this figure, we make slight adjustments, basically three adjustments, an adjustment for the P Index that includes the price variation that we've seen in previous years, a slight acknowledgment on that price variation that it has been way above what the P has included but is included in the regulatory framework, and it will be applied this way in years 2025 and 2026 of the plan. Also, the dilution that comes from the variation, compared to the real revenue and the proved revenue, and also the quality parameter. So the starting point of the adjustments is the one in 2024, which is 1,035. The tariff or the fee will be around the figure with the slight variations.
I think, well, on the one hand, you say, I mean, you're freezing the tariffs or the fees, and so with no great variation, this is an advantage for Aena and the Spanish market as for Aena as an operator of the airports because this uncertainty we mentioned several times, it's an uncertainty that the airline companies have. The visibility about costs in operating in airports is an element that gives competitiveness to the airports. Beyond the comments that we always have when there's a small, decimal point up in the tariffs, I think we have a competitive edge compared to other European countries that decided in COVID times not to approve, tariffs for several years but to do this on a year-by-year basis, which generates great uncertainty in terms of variation of the costs in the term.
So we have closed this price, and I think this is good to estimate where the companies place their planes and for the visibility of the analysts for the revenues, the aviation revenues until 2026. The other line of revenue is the commercial activity. We have given figures with the growth figures between 2019 and 2026. In our previous plan that we update today, the goal was to have a revenue per passenger of EUR 5.38 per passenger. What we present here today is we intend to reach EUR 6.33 per passenger, almost EUR 1 more per passenger. Take into account that this is a figure of over EUR 300 million. Well, the update in terms of commercial revenue in 2026 is around EUR 300 million compared to the strategic plan approved in October 2022.
And this forecast are based on a high degree of certainty to what we can control. The demand isn't something we can control, and we believe what, well, presents the demand represents is realistic. But what we can do is make contracts and design the structure of the airports so that we can generate the sales and that the operators then have decided to work in our airports to generate the sales and so, so that we can meet our sales. 75% of commercial revenues that operate with third parties duty-free, restaurants, shops, and rent-a-car is already awarded with a minimum guaranteed rents that are high. So we have to hire 25% approximately of to attract operators and generate those rents to reach EUR 6.33 on the line. We have to reach 100% in rent-a-car. And we have some data, and it's already up and going.
In all the airports, we hope to have a successful bidding process. Take into account that the main driver of our activity is tourism, and the rent-a-car in tourism is an essential element that has behaved in a successful way in the previous years together with, in line with the growth in the tourism segment. In the rest of the business lines that we operate, they are doing well. So we believe that this is linked to the demand. Of course, we believe that the demand, our demand expectations is realistic. So what we can expect in commercial revenues in the business lines we operate is very high too. About OpEx. This, COVID has changed the costs of almost all the sectors and economic activities. Well, probably the increases have been, well, higher in the airport sector. It has been very much affected.
And in many cases, they had to let go many people. It took more time to recover than other sectors. But so, a lot of staff that worked in the airports over the airline companies was transferred to other industrial sectors. And then it was difficult to get them back in Spain. This was, well, less. But in other countries, we saw how they didn't have any staff to provide the service. And the year before the pandemic, we didn't have a security staff. They have long lines. So they were in different places, all the staff. And in Spain, with the mechanisms that the government set that we called ERTE, that helped having the staff with a temporary dismissal, no, helping them be still linked to the company. So we were cautious when letting go with the staff, no.
Some companies reduce their staff in a larger percentage than we did, but we believe that the recovery needed, for us to have some staff. And I think we were right in when we compared the staff decrease. And, well, we saw that our decrease was less when we saw the comparables with our peers. When things came back to normal, they reduced the staff, but then they had a greater difficulty to get back their staff. And that contributed to so that the, well, coming out of the crisis also in the percentage was higher with other peers. As we can see in year 2023, the first half when we made this presentation, we didn't have the data still for 2023. But comparing the first half of the year with 2019, we grew 12% in unit costs for the first half of the year, was EUR 7.19 per passenger.
As we can see in the number that is right on the right-hand side of the arrow, well, others grew less. We were efficient before the increase. So we have increased the distance with our peers, competitors. Well, things aren't stable yet in terms of OpEx. We can see high growth in terms of salaries. Also, we have collective agreements that are still being signed. And in the case of airports, above other industrial sectors, also some of the habits or quality levels that were set in COVID, for example, the cleaning frequency, well, some habits had to be kept later, even if the pandemic is over. It was complicated to get back to patterns than of quality levels pre-COVID quality levels. So this isn't stable yet, but we have, well, bidded a large part of what we need in external services.
And we have for this year, 91% of the contracts. So this figure shouldn't come as a surprise. It's February. We have to sign all the contracts. We have 76% of next year and 72% of the year after. So as I was saying, this is what the market is giving us. We define scope adjusted to the quality levels. We have a public bidding processes, with the ones that are on the technical side and the ones that are more in the economic side. We have a very competitive sector, services sector. So I think we hire at the best price, and we pay at the best price that the market can give us. So we believe that we have well guaranteed contracts and well to have some stability until 2026. As we were talking about, it's not yet stable.
I think we have an increase in the cost per passenger, slightly above inflation this year and next year. And, well, probably which will come down, making up for the operational, leveraging from 2026 or from 2026, we have an increase in the cost per passenger below inflation, but we started 2024 with costs above inflation. But the level of costs of our OpEx then, seek to keep 59%, EBITDA spread in individual accounts. And finally, before, giving the floor to the general manager of airports and then to the general commercial manager, CapEx, Aena, well, has been benefited from the asset base from the previous years through COVID, of course, but also through the previous financial crisis. In Spain, we invested a lot in airports, and we have been able to use this capacity to keep growing.
We still have some capacity for the next years, but the traffic is growing still. So any forecast published by an international body, giving growth figures, marking Spain for being in the next 30 years amongst the five more important countries in terms of air traffic. So that means this is unstoppable, and we have to keep on analyzing the needs and the infrastructures. Of course, there's a change in the paradigm since we invested 15, 20 years ago compared to what we have to do now, no, in terms of sustainability. There are some elements that have to be taken into account for this growth, but the air transport will keep growing. We will do our job. The airline companies are doing the work. The handling agents are doing the job too. This will do for the growth rates once the numbers are stable.
We know what the transition cost is, what the sustainability cost is, but the air traffic will keep on growing for Spain. This is very important for the air traffic. We have to keep investing in CapEx, in infrastructure. In 2026, in this term, we are investing EUR 3 billion, distributed over the five years in a uniform way. We have around EUR 1.8 billion a year. This is an investment aimed at security infrastructure. We have a large asset base. EUR 3 billion is an important figure, but also 46 airports require call for a large investment, no, in terms of capacity. The traffic growth that we see makes us, well, anticipate any pre-investment activities. This starts by analyzing the needs, then to project them, and then, well, to make the bidding process and start building.
What's not included in the DORA will have to do it from the next DORA, and that is 2027. But right now, we have, well, under development or 11% of the works that are being executed. In terms of passengers, and this is Palma de Mallorca, we are carrying on an investment of EUR 550 million that starts with this DORA but will continue several years. This is something that will take some time. We have to do this in the, well, in winter. It cannot be done in summer. We have 42% not of the airports, but in terms of passenger volume, the airports that represent 42% of our passengers that are in the stage of functional design. We have identified that we have to carry out investments to modernize or update and generate capacity.
And finally, 31% were these is airports where we are already drawing up projects by engineers. So these projects will be bidding processes to be executed when the investments are recognized in our next DORA because right now, the new investments are not included in the DORA. The ones we execute are the ones that were recognized or included when the Council of Ministers approved the DORA we are working on now. And 16% it's not that we are not investing that 16%. We carry out the investments needed, but there are no important needs in terms of capacity. So where will this take us? Will this will take us to identify through the 31% we have already identified, and we are already drawing up projects. And you will see the details later.
But the functional design will lead us to decide the needs we have and when we should do that. And that will translate into the DORA III proposal in terms of calendar. It must be approved in 2026 to start executing it in 2027. So the complexity of DORA III in terms of investment will be larger than the one we have now because of what I'm saying, because the DORA entails a consultation process with the airline companies. So the DORA proposal is more complicated to draw up because we have to prioritize. In the end, you have to be able to reconcile the needs in the horizon with the execution capacity and the obligation of high, well, a competitive, fee framework because if the airport charges, contribute to a certain extent we don't believe them to be the essential point in for attracting traffic.
But amongst our goals, we always intended to be efficient enough so that the airport charges doesn't entail an entry barrier in comparative terms with other competitors in Europe or other countries. So we'll prioritize the investment this way. And this is how we will present this to the Ministry of Transport for the second half of 2025. So what are the amounts we are considering? Let's see how the traffic ends, no, because when prioritizing, we have to take into account how the term ends and at what time do we need to do these investments. And this is important when prioritizing in October 2022. We talk about investments that are twice what we did in this DORA. Right now, I cannot say a different figure than that because some projects will be carried are more urgent than others.
But until we don't finish the functional design, we won't be able to provide a figure that will be given throughout next year. But in our opinion, it won't be below, well, twofold what we are investing now in this DORA. Okay. And giving the floor to the General Manager of Airports, and then we'll come back for the international activity.
Thank you, Vice President. Morning, Secretary of State, board members, and all of you. To continue after the presentation of the President and the Vice President, I'm going to make a more detailed analysis of the actions as our VP explained. After COVID, there was a different behavior in traffic in the airports that has obviously as a consequences in the OpEx and CapEx. This different behavior in the Spanish airports is a clear mirror of what happens in the airports all over the world.
So we can see in the airports of Madrid and Barcelona, in the case of the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, that this still at 2.4% of the traffic we had in 2019 in the case of the Barcelona airports will be 5.3% to reach those figures. But it's very much in line with the rest of the hubs, both in Europe and in the rest of the world. In 2024, we expect a total recovery of this traffic because, as the VP explained, our traffic estimate is cautious. But we have a summer season with a slot surplus of around 7% that will make it for us to recover in all our airports, the figures in 2019. This behavior is different to what we see in the touristic airports.
We're seeing this in the European airports where in Spain and the Canary Islands we see a different growth of 7.4% compared to 2019 in the Balearic Islands of 6% and touristic airports Alicante, Málaga, Sevilla, and Valencia of 10% and even some figures that are way above that 10% I'm mentioning. This growth has been uneven in our airports, but they are positioned both in terms of hubs and touristic airports in the first top ranking spaces in the European airports are. So the recovery in Spain is being above what we see in Europe or the rest of the world.
We talked about the expenses, the OpEx. We are way more competitive than the rest of our peers. But it's true that the post-COVID situation introduced a series of differences. Here, we must emphasize that we have already our main contracts done, that have a direct impact in our OpEx. So in security normally, we have hired we see that in 2026, we have 72% of the contracts. But in the security contract or electricity contract, we have it secured until 2028.
This gives us great certainty. In the case of the security, we made a different bidding process than the one we did before with a competitive dialogue by searching high competition to get to know the opinion of the sector and, of course, working on incorporating IT innovation that we will develop in the years to come with new technologies in the airport filters that you will know will enable to implement machines that we'll start seeing in the Spanish airports this year so that in the carry-on luggage, we don't have to take out laptops and liquids in 2020. The security, the private security contract, was EUR 217 million in 2023. The cleaning services is, we have, hired around 50% of the annual budget until 2026. But this year, we will, make a bidding process for the rest of the airport.
In 2025, we will have a contract for almost 100% of the contract. So with that contract, we will get until 2028 that this item for expenses, in the cleaning services entails EUR 76 million in 2023. Another important line of business that entails meeting the European directive and a special sensitivity in providing the service we must do in the airports. This is the PMR assistance. This is hired until 2026. So the reduced mobility service, this entails 96% of the annual budget. This is an important item for the budget in 2023, called for EUR 71 million. Finally, something that has an impact in our operation, not just service contract but electric energy where we have a contract until 2028. This contract was initiated in January this year, and it has enabled us to have some energy coverage.
I will explain this later, of 36% of the energy at a fixed cost. This item, well, doesn't incorporate distribution costs, but this was EUR 150 million in 2023. The energy business was something that in the last years has been very important, not just in airports, that are energy-intensive uses but in other sectors. And that's why we have developed our own energy strategy because we want to make compatible sustainability, efficiency, but at the same time also the right risk hedging. So that's why in 2023, we developed the strategic plan for electric energy, electrical energy. So P3E. So this contract sets a fixed price for 36% of the energy we'll need in the Spanish airports until 2028. Also, it sets it for the progressive incorporation of the energy produced in our photovoltaic plants that will be 36%.
If you remember the previous big plan, we were talking in 2025 to be above 30%. Well, we can confirm this 30% in 2026 because we are talking about plans, the plans in Madrid of the 120 MW that is being built on the plans of Reus and Barcelona that, as you well know, we have awarded recently. So we are talking about energy that is almost in our hands. But this also well, the deployment until 2021 will be above that. We have excellent connection to reach 51% of the energy. And if the capacity of the network, no, if the administrative, paperwork entails, less or so, we intend to do full deployment, commissioning, in 14 airports where we have, the available we have the land and the power of the solar energy that we need until we reach 100%.
So our ambition is thereabout we have to follow times that have nothing to do with us sometimes. So apart from 66% of the energy, we have 34% that will be hired at variable price. But we keep on working on that, risk hedge, without forgetting about sustainability. And right now, we are considering the possibility of financial PPA to cover 50% of the energy. This financial PPA due to how we fund our contracts cannot be over five years. But with the financial PPA, we would be able to consider a longer horizon; time horizon also is a financial PPA. And in line with sustainability too, we are looking for guarantees of origin with specific plans that 20% will be something similar to the 30% of 2026 or 51% in 2029 where the photovoltaic, the sun energy has, we know where the plans come from.
I talk about sustainability today. Aena's energy on 100% clean energy. We have origin guarantees for renewable energy that are certified. And also with this contract for electric energy until 2028, we've been able to set the cost of the origin guarantees that are constantly increasing their price. So in 2026, we'll have 30% origin guarantees that are self-generated with our own photovoltaic plants, 70% at a fixed price thanks to this new contract. And, in that 70%, we'll have 20% that will also have a name. We'll know where it comes from. So sustainability, efficiency in hedging the rise at a fixed price and also letting us some partial hedging and giving us some flexibility. So at times when the energy cost, to make some partial closings. But at the same time, with sustainability and an efficiency that are very important for us.
There's another thing in the airports I'd like to talk about. It's not a services contract, but it's something that is important in terms of competitiveness and sustainability of the airports. And it's the allocation of the new licenses for the provision of services, of handling services in third parties that we did this in accordance with the European directive and its translation into the Spanish directive. So we announced how the allocation was on 26th September next year. We are already doing the transition in our airports. And before the Easter holiday, we should have done this in all airports except for the Canary Islands, precisely not to interrupt the peak season in the Canary Islands. But we'll finish this throughout April. So this is a transition that is almost finished and giving us a great competitive edge in three very important aspects.
First of all, sustainability, as our President mentioned. So these are the third-party emissions important for our net-zero goal in 2030. But even if in 2023, we have an electric fleet of 23%, we have in our specs some conditions for our handling services that, well, were overcome, leading us to 80% in 2024. In 2030, for an electric fleet of 88%. But if we talk about sustainable cars in 2024, we'll be around 100%, a figure that will be reached in 2030 at the same time. There's a strategic line that we set in this contract. And, well, for all of us, as airport users, it's very important. And this is the quality aspect. And this to decrease at around 20% average the delivery of the last luggage when we are waiting in the belts to get our luggage.
And our third line, if for Aena this is neutral, this allocation is neutral for Aena because we have a handling fee for the use of infrastructure that comes from the fees we charge we mentioned before by negotiating with the airline companies and the handling agents. And this is to attain an additional average, this kind of 6% on the maximum, ramp fees that the companies will achieve in the next seven years. And finally, something about our VIP, well, that he has mentioned before. We have a capacity in our airports to guarantee the traffic coverage in the years to come. But we need to move forward projects in DORA that will be executed in the next one. You know the, well, the projects in the airports, even if we are talking about projects in the terminals, they require initial analysis for the needs.
If they have an important depth, we talk about functional design, also the environmental side, and also the execution in itself. And that's why we're working on it already. We are at the project stage in Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport. And it will be explained later. And we expect both drafting the project and initiating the works in this DORA but also in the Canary Islands airports with strong growth. And we are working on Tenerife South, North, and the Lanzarote Airport. And we see the Barcelona Airport too in T1 and T2 for the refitting of the terminals in Málaga, Alicante, Valencia, Ibiza, Menorca, Bilbao, Santander, and Melilla. And I insist, these are functional designs of certain depth.
But the proposal of DORA III will contemplate that the investment is unnecessary and even some actions in the terminals and the systems that maybe aren't so important but necessary. I'd like to detail some of the most relevant ones. First of all, the airport we find ourselves in today, Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport, in this DORA, in addition to execution of the project, will finalize the works in the next DORA. We are inside the perimeter of the airport. These are extensions of T4 and T4S to foster the hub in T4. So these satellites and terminal were built at a time thinking about the hub activity. So we want to foster this to take place here.
But at the same time, we want to improve the quality and efficiency with a new pier, reaching that capacity of 90 million passengers without touching the perimeter of the airport. I'd like to emphasize because T4 will grow in the pier and in the connections to have more catwalks for the hub efficiency in terms of connection times. But we will change the image we have of these hubs, try to be more functional and operative, looking for a new pier which will be, well, something similar to what we have now. So the check-in, security, and pickup services will be done in a building that will be in front of the current terminal. So part of the T1 parking lot. And we will update the current terminals and turn them into modern, great, and functional gates.
So we will unify in the process area the three, check-in security filter and luggage pickup. Also, I'd like to talk about another action which is the Barcelona T1. Both in T1, and another one was expected in the DORA. But we need to reconfigure the one in Barcelona to fit it to the client, the customer experience. So the new safety machines that we will use in our filters entail a bigger footprint than in the rest of the airports. And in the case of Barcelona, it's not just the footprint in the filter but also the depth that it takes in the checking area. So not just in the security but in the check-in areas, this will take place so that the passenger can comfortably move with that new equipment.
So this takes us to, well, to carry out an important work in T1, extending towards the sides in this brown shadow and bringing forward the facade. But this goes in line with security regulation still in force. And that is being currently analyzed by the European Union to keep on moving forward. We will look for a full picture of this with the footprint. And we intend to have a quality in the checking area. So that's why the terminal is extended. Also, as I said at the beginning, we are working on the projects for the airports in the Canary Islands. We have started drafting up the southern airport in Tenerife. We did some works that were opened in May. You can see in the gray area where we have a security filter.
But it's true that we have an older terminal, the T1, and the one that was opened, T2. What we intend with the new action is to try to standardize the terminal in Tenerife so that the image, and from the local authorities, they insisted on this a lot. We work closely with them because they just emphasize on the importance of the image when people reach the island. So in Tenerife and Lanzarote, we will award the tender for this project. Thank you very much. Try to give some broad strokes about our main expenses to talk of a contract that is not just purely a services contract but very important from the sustainability standpoint, quality and handling.
Also, to get to know in depth the energy contract I know you are very interested in and to give you some brush strokes on our investments and how we will be prepared for the years to come soon. I'm giving the floor without further ado to the General Commercial Manager and Real Estate Manager. Thank you.
Good morning, Secretary of State, and the rest of the attendants. Now, we're going to make an update of the commercial activity and real estate activity, from here to 2026. First of all, as our President said, we were ambitious in the strategic plan. We are still ambitious, although we are realistic in this update. We expect a growth of 26%-48% on the total revenues compared to 2019 and 32% in the revenue per passenger.
In this presentation, we'll first see where we are and then line by line how we'll get to those figures. First of all, if we see the current indicators, we see that the commercial activity has had a positive evolution in the last years. We manage two types of businesses that are in hands of third parties through lease contracts and the ones that we manage ourselves. On the third-party contracts, the main indicator are sales. We see that the sales in the last year in 2023 have made a positive progress in, business growth for the, tax-free of 15%, the restaurants 25%, or rent-a-car 23%. Also, as there's an inflation side and in the commercial business, this is translated into sales.
But also important change in trends of the consumer habits, especially in restaurants, that have been supported by the new bidding process and the new business models and brands that have been set in the airports. We focus on our own businesses. We see important growth such as in the parking lots, 14%, or especially in VIP businesses that have grown by 51%. We can see that the passengers demand more and more high-quality services and tailor-made services. If we take a look at the private aviation, it has grown by 138%, giving us a further indication that the passengers look for different things. The real estate business has grown by 34% since 2019, linked to our activities. So the ones who demand real estate services, this is the aviation service and the cargo services.
Another key indicator of our progress and the confidence in the region and in Aena is the result of the bidding processes we have held in 2021. Over 330 contracts, so over 500 stores with minimum guaranteed rent that are very important. So 23% are 20% above 2019. But since the longer several-year contracts, we can see that the ones offered for 2026 are 40% above what we had in 2019. Now, we'll start seeing line by line how we will move forward until 2026. If we focus on the first business line we have in the commercial activity, the tax-free shops, we ended 2023 with EUR 414 million. This represents 25% of the commercial business. As you know, the main milestone in 2023 was a duty-free tender.
This was a 12-year competition, incorporating new commercial services and products with the aim of it being, well, a competition to generate higher sales. We had an important result. So the rents of 2024 are 16.3% above what we had in 2019 if we look at the chart. The figure with which we closed 2019, EUR 345 million, the one with which we closed in this business line, EUR 414 million in 2023. The last one will be the estimate for the strategic plan. The client represents the figure we gave for the strategic plan. It was EUR 462 million. We update to EUR 551 million for these figures. Where does this come from? What you can see in red are the minimum guaranteed rent income for this contract. So for 2026, we have EUR 491 million guarantees.
We add in orange to the chart, the variable income that we can we believe we will obtain because there will be slots where the variable will be over the minimum guaranteed income. So the figure for 2026 in this line will be 551. It's important to emphasize in this business line that for year 2024, 2025, and 2026, we already have guaranteed of in our projections, 97% of our businesses. If we move on to the next business line, well, the restaurants has been a line that has grown significantly. We've ended 2023 with EUR 326 million, representing 20% of the commercial figures. During 2023, we have carried out 80 public tenders that entail EUR 147 million, which is 40% more revenues for 2023, 2026.
If we look at the chart we have in this slide that has, well, the works as the previous one, you can see the end of 2019 with 225. And we closed with the black line for the strategic plan in 2026 were 265 million. And that we update to 306-367. So where does this come from, this figure? In green, you can see there will be the minimum guaranteed income that we have already hired. What you can see in green are the variable income. So in restaurants, many tenders where the variable is above the minimum guaranteed incomes with the good behavior of the sales. And also, we can see in orange the tenders from now until 2026 with important tenders. And here, we have the minimum guaranteed income for the bidding processes.
Now, we have in presenting the offered, most of the restaurants in southern Tenerife, an airport that is growing in traffic in a double-digit growth. And this is a very attractive airport for the restaurants activity. But also, in 2024, we will have a public tender for the Mallorca and Ibiza. Also, we'll have public tenders. And in 2025 in year 2026 will be very important for restaurants because we will have public tender for Barcelona, a part of Gran Canaria, and Málaga. So this is the progress we intend to see. And here, we want to emphasize that 76% of the income we expect is already committed by minimum guaranteed income. In the case of the specialized shops, this is a business that has finished with EUR 134 million, representing 8% of the commercial sales figures throughout 2022 and 2023.
We have put into the market 200 tenders with income of over EUR 101 million of what we had. And if we take a look at the chart, we had 115 in 2019. It's 124 in year 2023. And the estimate for the strategic plan of 2026 is EUR 150 million, although we put 118 was our previous figure. This EUR 150 million, some of it already committed, as you can see in green, the minimum guaranteed income. In orange is the variable income. And what you see in gray are the tenders that will take place throughout this term. Right now, in the year 2024, we have in presenting our offer, although Málaga retail, but Barcelona, Palma de Mallorca, and Alicante will join in. Here, I want to say that for this term, 73% of the revenues with the minimum guaranteed income, well, it will be guaranteed.
If we move on to the rent-a-car line, very important one for us too, they ended up 2023 with EUR 186 million, representing 11% of revenues. And right now, we have 170 rent-a-car contracts in our network. This ends in October, this contract. And we are receiving offers. And this ends on the 21st March. We have designed this tender in order to maximize the value for Aena. We have two levers. We intend to have a higher income than we have and also attract new operators inside the airports because this business can be carried out both inside airports and in around, well, in the surrounding areas. So we have designed a tender where we have more parking spaces, more offices, more infrastructure so that we can have more operators.
Instead of having 170 contracts, to have 218 contracts and to set up an income and a variable and fixed income structure that is larger than we have to give flexibility to the operators that we can attract more and so that it generates larger profits. We expect to reach 2026 with a figure over EUR 212 million here. Now, let us focus on our own businesses, the ones that we manage, two businesses, the parking lots and the VIP businesses or rooms. This is, I mean, something we usually don't know about. Aena has a very important parking lots network. We closed 2023 with EUR 181 million with a growth of 14% compared to 2019. It represents 11%. And here, we see an important progress in the strategic plan. So we're going to update the figure of EUR 177 million to 194.
So the main drivers, growth drivers, we have the development of new products such as drop-off, motorbike, parking lots, but also new products that have to do with sustainable mobility and new mobility agents that we can see in our cities and our airports too. And also to carry out a pricing strategy such as the one we are carrying out that generates larger revenues because it's very competitive. Now, VIP services. As I mentioned at the beginning, this is a business line that is growing more. It's grown by more than 50% in 2019. And it entails for 7% of the commercial revenues. If you see the chart and an update, it's very important, going from EUR 124 million we estimated in the strategic plan, to EUR 160 million.
Here, the main drivers are the generation of new products, which is to tend to the demand of our clients that are, the demand, higher quality and tailor-made, products to increase the capacity of our rooms by creating new rooms or increasing the size of the ones we have. Also, carrying out more investment in Fast Lane and Fast Track that are very much demanded and also to manage our pricing policies. After giving some broad strokes on the commercial activity, we're going to focus on the real estate activity. We finished the year with EUR 106 million, which is 38% more of, compared to 2019. So this growth of the last two years is linked to the core businesses that take place in our airports, especially the aviation and the, retail, business. So we have generated important assets such as, hangars.
We have, we have H3, which is the hangar, our biggest hangar, 22,000 sqm , so for Ryanair. But they have rented other hangars in other airports. Also, the load activity has influenced in the real estate activity. So being back to figures of 2019, January was very good with an increase of 23% of the load activity and 25% in the airport of Madrid. So last year, several warehouses were rented in Madrid, Barcelona, and in Alicante airport. And also, in 2025-2026, we'll keep up with this line. Also, we have developed new products such as the market /airport supermarket in Madrid. The figures we can see, we ended 2023 with EUR 106 million. And we updated the figure of the strategic plan of 1 from EUR 110 million to EUR 121 million, incorporating new tender new tenders that is linked to the airport core.
If we focus on airport cities in Madrid, Barajas, we estimate to end 2026 with an occupancy of 25% occupation of the associated to the airport city, Madrid, Barajas. This comes from activities that are linked to our businesses, hangars and load terminals. But we work on logistics. And we intend to put it into the market with this strategic plan whenever the market conditions are favorable to take us to the value we intend to meet. And also, we continue with the hotel project. If we focus on the Barcelona activity, we have to emphasize that the activity is very much linked to the extension of the airport. And also, in the case of Barcelona, the activity is being slowed down by the urban development plans that won't let us move as fast as we would.
Last year, we worked on the charge zone, on the load zone, creating a new area that is very compact. We are working to start the T2 hotel, as we said in the strategic plan. In T2, we want to include in the strategic plan with the logistics area. We said we talked about 32 hectares. We have to reduce it to 5 hectares because these hectares are the ones that we have administrative authorizations for. We intend to reach EUR 1.9 billion in revenue, 6.33 EUR per passenger, which entails an increase for commercial revenues by 48% compared to 2019, now 32% compared to 2019 also in terms of revenues per passenger. Also, to emphasize the part of the business that's already contracted and third-party business, which is 65%-75% of the business is already secured with minimum guaranteed income, so secured.
In the chart, you can see here, we see that in the term 2024, 2025, and 2026, that part of the business and by business line, this is secured already. We take a look at 2026, we have secured over EUR 1 billion. To reach EUR 1.9 billion, then we have committed we'll have to add the rent-a-car tender that starts in November this year, all the shops and restaurants we mentioned throughout the presentation, our own businesses that represent 25% of the business figures of Aena and the real estate business. So we have an ambition, EUR 1,900 and no, EUR 1.9 billion, which is a realistic ambition. And with Aena's team, a very committed team, I think we'll get there. Thank you. And now I'm giving the floor to the Vice President.
Thank you, María José. Back to the international activity. Before the president wraps up with one of the main goals, I want to go through our international activity, starting with a reminder of what our consolidation perimeter is, including three societies, Luton, ANB, and BOAB, and our holding company, which is the Pacific Airports, where we have a minority holding in Colombia. We have presence in Colombia. One of the companies, which is Cartagena de Indias, they ended their concession. We analyzed their award. So we intended to present an offer for the extension that was set up by the regulator. And we didn't believe that it fit with our strategy. So we are not operating in Cartagena. And in the case of Cali, which is not there because the award ends in March. And the government had announced that they would get back the award to manage it itself. It's not there.
But the government has decided to extend the award for over a year until they decide what they do with Cali. However, the consolidation perimeter is more and more relevant in terms of turnover and also in EBITDA generation in 2023. If we don't include the three societies in passenger volume, although in the case of BOAB, 57 million, which in relative terms is 20% of the activity we manage in Spain. So, oh, this entails 20% of EBITDA generation. Luton and ANB, which are the two companies that we consolidate the whole year, contributed EUR 165 million EBITDA to the society.
In the case of BOAB, the figure of EUR 13.9 million is a small figure that corresponds to part of the month of October and part of November and the month of December where we will start seeing it this year, the society of Pacífico, GAP, Pacific Airports, a group of airports in a country that is growing. But we have a small stake. So we don't consolidate the appropriate share in EBITDA. Luton and Brazil, the two cities we can talk about more, Luton, because we've been there for many more years. We have a record EBITDA in 2023 of GBP 107.9 million. And compared to the EBITDA before the pandemic in 2019, it was 24% above with less passengers, with 10% less passengers. So the U.K. hasn't recovered the activity before the pandemic.
So the EBITDA by passenger, the growth of the EBITDA before and after the pandemic is above 40%. Also, we have received the authorization by the government to increase the capacity to 18 million-19 million passengers, which is regulatory. We don't have to carry out an investment to be able to reach that figure. So, we are at the last stages. With the city hall, this will enable us, when the traffic is recovered in the 18 million we had before the pandemic to reach 19 without any further investment with some important thing that to improve. Luton is the connectivity with the London Center. In 2023, we have started the Luton Express that gets to St. Pancras station in 32 minutes.
It joins to the commissioning of the fast train between the train station in Luton and the airport so that you don't have to use any other means of transport. It was a local bus so that the Luton airport is closer, way closer than to the city center in London. In the case of the Northeast Brazil, which manages six airports, we started operating in 2020, one year before the pandemic. We, well, took control and started carrying out the actions to meet the requirements of the award, which is meeting a series of CapEx investments in the first three years. And it wasn't an easy task because the airports were closed a few weeks after being there. But the result is very good.
As the P resident said, we finished with our compulsory investments, beyond some small thing we have to do this year. We ended this in December, with opening the extension of Recife. We put additional 50% capacity in all the airports. In financial terms, the year 2023 compared to 2021 here, we cannot compare to pre-pandemic levels because we were not there. The traffic has grown by 25% and EBITDA by 116%, making this in nominal terms for the EBITDA per passenger to be about 70%. 2021, it was the first four years without the pandemic compared to 2023. But the 2023 compared to 2022, showing an increase, and constant increase. And the EBITDA in 2023 grew by 23%, compared to 2022 with a passenger increase of only 6%. So both subsidiaries, Luton is more mature.
But we are having a conversation with the city hall that is in charge of the award for an extension of the award to be able to carry out more investments to the demand of over 19 million passengers. But it is a company that is doing very well. And in northeast Brazil airports, we have overcome, apart from the taking control of it, we have met the compulsory CapEx, which was quite a challenge. And so we have financed the society. So we believe that we are in the return phase as expected. As you know, in the accounts 2023, we have reverted the provision, impairment provision we did about this asset; it is reverted to 100% of the book value we had when we carried out the investment. And in traffic level, the group is above average in Brazil.
Brazil is slightly below in terms of the recovery of traffic, compared to 2019. But the Northeast Brazil have had 106%, so 6% more traffic than they had in 2019. So, about, BOAB, we can tell you less things, but important things nonetheless, less things. But because, as I've said, several times, we started, in October, November, our activity there. So the effective date, which is when we start counting the 30 years, award, this should be June last year, which is when we sign the oh, one, one, a couple of days after signing the contract, now we have the effective date. And we have some regulatory milestones that start by presenting a transition plan.
As I say, we took control without any disruption, which is not a simple thing, to take over 11 airports in one and a half months without any disruption to the air, air traffic and with complicated airports such as the one in Congonhas. Now we get into the execution of the works, which is a compulsory thing, which is called the phase 1B in Brazil. In this case, compared to A N B group, we have to carry out compulsory investments in the case of the 10 smallest airports in three years. I know this was A N B. In the case of Congonhas, taking into account the complexity, we have five years to carry them out. We have delivered in the project; in December, we delivered previous projects, or draft projects to the regulators.
We have the specs in the bidding process to start building in the 11 airports for the compulsory works throughout this year. Meanwhile, we have stabilized our structure in Brazil, management structure we had created for the first group. We have extended this. We have a unique structure generating synergies between both societies, each one having an award contract, for the 17, 16 airports. So there are positive elements. That is that the capacity of the Congonhas Airport has been increased, when we tendered for the process, the number of takeoffs and landings, there was 41 operations an hour. Later, the government increased it to 44 operations now, takeoffs and landings without regulatory permits to be able to grow in the 3 slots per hour, which is a relevant figure. Well, until now, we haven't found anything that wasn't in our business plan.
We give the details on the CapEx for the planning teams after the offer with some variation of the technical solutions. But the amounts are there. We cannot find any OpEx level or revenue level that makes us change our forecast. The example of the capacity is enough said that we don't take into account. Do we? We didn't take into account it or offer it. It's very more than welcome to take into account the difficulty of increasing the declared capacity in the airports. As I said, Congonhas is the airport with the largest investment required in accordance with the contract commitments.
We have a plan adapted to what we did, knowing more in detail, but very similar to what we said at the time of the offer, which is what we presented to the regulator and takes us to have a new terminal, passenger terminal, together with the refurbishment of the previous one. We will twofold the capacity in square meters, for passengers, taking to 105,000 sqm . In this surface, we have around 20,000 sqm of commercial surface, also refurbishing the old one with a new area. The new area will be two-thirds of these 20,000 sqm with an increase of 20% in the number of positions for parking the aircraft and also a redistribution of the airport in general in terms of location of the different areas. We're going to rearrange the general aviation.
We have designed a future operation to make compatible general aviation with commercial aviation, which was one of the main challenges and concerns locally. We have designed this to make this compatible, but making sure that we'll have growth in the airport. This is our biggest challenge right now. We intend to have this works in this year. It will be the next milestone in the project. It's inside our price estimates. We have to make some tender processes for all this. This will be done very soon in financial level. As we have seen last year, oh, we have a small EBITDA. But this year, we'll see how the group behaves from the financial standpoint. We have some certainty in our focus based on our experience in the ANB group and the teams.
As I said, the teams are the same teams that have been working. And someone who isn't there, but they are responsible because they came back to Spain and is in charge of works in ANB and with a larger team in BOAB and is in charge of carrying that out. We'll see in the following months the results of all of this. The international activity represented 3% of EBITDA in 2019. It was 6.7% excluding reversal. It must be between 10%-11%, ANB reversal of 6.7%. And we intend to reach 15% including the new subsidiaries, but always being sure that what we have, which is Luton, ANB, and BOAB, the good performance to contribute to the 15%. Okay. So without further ado, I'm giving the floor back to CEO.
Okay. Hi again. More than conclusions, I mean, this is just additional comments because I'm going to try and to insist on the main on the key messages that we communicated, both myself and the VP and the general managers. The reason why we're here today is not something we would have expected in November 2022 because very little time has gone by in order to review, update the strategic plan. But we are very happy to do so for the good reasons, for the right reasons, because it means that the company is not only doing very well, but that it's doing better than expected when our expectations in less than one and a half years was already very optimistic. So clearly, I said this before publicly, the company is at a sweet moment, maybe the sweetest they've ever seen. So we all hope this to extend in time.
We're going to pull out all our stops to make this possible. So using another informal expression, we want to bring forward to 2025 the 300-passenger goal in Spain, which is a lot of millions. We bring forward one decade of a goal for the mainland, not just in the air transport, but the human side. This is decarbonization of our activity. In 2030, we'll be a net-zero company. Also, we'll keep on leading in operational efficiency in spite of having seen a cost increase that has been explained by the Executive Vice President that well can still be seen in time, although in 2026, that noise will be reduced.
In 2023, this is a perfect starting point so that the review of the commercial goals is very ambitious with a goal of increasing 32% the commercial revenue per passenger compared to 2019 and 2026. We have a goal, a comp goal, compared to the increase of our international activity. We will be happy if EBITDA of the international business compared to the total in 2026 reaches 15%. But if we're not there, we'll be happy too because it will mean that the opportunities that are that present that we can see don't fit in our demanding parameters. And finally, EBITDA, we hope, well, in a well-sustained manner for the right reason for commercial projections, traffic, that the EBITDA will be 20% above. We grow by 20% in 2026 compared to 2019. And this will let us in an organic way to maintain the attractive payout of 80%.
I want to finish now. Aena is an admirable company. I think that all the workers in Aena, at least in the stage, where I have been a CEO in the company, they have showed an incredible performance. We have a board of directors that is largely represented today, very demanding, very sophisticated, that improves the proposals that are constantly received by the management of the company. And finally, the management team is very mature, experienced, and with a lot of energy in executing but very cautious in analyzing things. And I believe that is the best management team I've worked with in my 25 years of professional career. So when we presented you today the new goals in the strategic review, I hope you believe me when I tell you that we are ready. We are more than ready to meet our goals. I think we are endorsed by the past fulfillment of our goals presented. Thank you for your attention. I give the floor to Ignacio Castejón now.
Thank you, President. Thank you for the explanations. We intend to have a Q&A session now. We're not doing very well time-wise because we have other commitments for some of the attendees. So if you want to make a question, please, limit this to one single question. And when doing it, state your name and the company you work in. Now we can start with the questions. Thank you.
Hi. About the international goal. So we give 15%, which is what we told the market in the previous presentation. But now, we give a more optimistic perspective for the traditional market in Aena and the international, market. So I believe this hasn't been talked about before, but we have an international pipeline that is attractive that may let them keep that 15% because with the Spanish progress, you could have pulled down that percentage, actually, if it wasn't attractive.
Okay. Let me give the floor to the CEO so that he can answer to your question.
I understand that you talk about the relative effect of the weight of the international EBITDA. It's a good question. The answer probably may be disappointing because the reason why we kept a 15% goal is, I mean, is trying to be practical. No, the 15% is, I mean, it's, it's like a guideline figure. It's a comfortable, cautious figure. And I use this, as, as I said, it's like a cautious figure. So we didn't take into consideration what you say.
You're right that in absolute terms, it's more than before because the perimeter of our EBITDA will be increased. No, I don't care if we end up in with 14%, 16%, or 10%. I will be at peace because I know that regardless of the decision we make in the years to come, it will be adjusted to the demanding parameters of analysis and, what I was saying in the beginning, which is that it's a sacred principle to consider the equity value of the company, including the future dividends, the captured gains. So it's our the best treasure we manage. No, it's our so that includes analyzing the international projects. There hasn't been a change in the larger density of the pipeline. No, there is no change there.
So I'd like the, compared to other goals, interpretation of that 15% ambition in 2026 in relative EBITDA compared to the total figures would be taken more as a guideline and not a fixed figure.
Yes. Hello. This is Marcin Wojtal from Bank of America. You provided a lot of information about your CapEx, growth CapEx 2027 onward. But what about returns? What about regulated returns that you expect to earn on that CapEx? Right now, your return is 6%. Before, it was 7%. How confident are you that the regulator is going to give you a more attractive rate of return in DORA III? Have you had any discussions yet on that topic?
Thank you for the question, Marcin . I understand you are asking about the WACC that we believe we'll have in DORA III. I'm going to give the floor to the CEO so that he can answer.
T hank you. It's a very good question and very difficult to answer it beforehand or in advance. No, who knows what will happen in three years about how the monetary policy will go, that, that, well, has an important influence on how we build the abstract exercise of the WACC, no, the combined cost of capital and debts, no, and the compensation of our asset base, our regulated asset base. So it's very difficult to know. I mean, I have an opinion today as a professional economist that is different from the progress of monetary policy than the one I had a year ago. So it's even more difficult for me to try to talk about two, two, three years in time. So I know this is an essential element in the compensation scheme of our regulated activity, the aviation activity.
But I believe that the past can be used as a guideline, as a solid guideline, the regulatory framework in Aena. And I said before, we believe that in some cases, it should be more generous with Aena. Sometimes, we feel that it recognizes Aena's activity and its compensation. But regardless of your opinion on that regulatory framework that comes from a law that is very modern, no, Ley 18/2014, I think that if you know what you're talking about, no, this is a regulatory framework that is settled on principles from micro advanced microeconomy that are solid. And Spain was lucky enough to be able to draw up that regulatory framework being based on experiences of other countries that have been pioneers in regulating the aviation activity.
And that means that, when the government approves the work, as when the National Committee for Markets and Competition, when they issue opinions about our rates, whether we agree or not, we are convinced that from a technical standpoint, the analysis and the reasonings are solid, both with the technicians from Civil Aviation as the technicians of the CNMC.
So what I believe is that it will be a work that is, well, technically well-structured, which is, well, what you can ask as a partially regulated company, as the case of Aena, about the levels of increases or decreases. I cannot value the technical quality of the works that will finally end up in that work of 2027 for DORA III. But my main concern is linked to the uncertainty, the existing uncertainty on the profitability of the risk-free assets, the building, the Beta, etc., etc. I don't know. Maybe that the general manager of the airports and the CFO want to add something to this.
No, no. Thank you. Nothing further. Thank you.
Sathish from Citi. Yeah. Thanks. Yeah. I got a question on the real estate, like optimizing the portfolio there. If you see, obviously, in the last all 18 months, we have seen increased activities on maintenance, repair, especially from the airlines' point of view. And Ryanair actually said they want to set up an engine shop potentially in Spain, by the end of this decade as well. So do you, like, see opportunities on the real estate to focus, like, put up an aerospace hub within Madrid or Barcelona? Where do you see the opportunity? Or it would be more on the regional airports. Where do you see the scope for optimizing this real estate portfolio? Or your preferences is more, say, cargo or office space?
Thank you for your question. I understand that what you try to better understand has to do with the diversification of real estate products, and also from a geographical standpoint. I don't know, CEO, if you want to take this one.
Yes. I will answer. Then I give the floor to the general commercial and real estate manager and the strategic framework. I talked about, no, at the beginning of my presentation when I explained that we were clear, both the managers of the companies and the administrators that the general framework wouldn't change. So our activities are clear, not aviation activity that is regulated, non-regulated commercial activity, well, starting but initial but powerful growth of the real estate activity, and international activity.
So the real estate activity is. I think it's clear that there's we have a long way to go and many things to do. But also, it's obvious that there are countries with airports because of their location have competitive edges, the clear competitive edges. No, if you think about Frankfurt or Amsterdam, they are located, from a geographical perspective in at points where the load distribution, once they are transported by a plane, it's easier. Well, us, we are at a peripheral sphere. But we have companies that have a great load capacity because of their business model, for example, Inditex or, companies from the pharmaceutical sector in Catalonia. And as I said, gives us, a longer trajectory. But this being said, no, this will be, this will, increase in the years to come.
But the upside is too calm but constant, steady, and calm development in the premium areas for the airports, for example, in Madrid, Barcelona, and Málaga in the future that have the land and very well communicated and that are close to the city centers. It's more difficult to set up a specific calendar because this will depend on what we receive from the market. But in Madrid, we are at the final stage in the rebidding for the first area in Madrid that came to a halt in the summer 2023 but is an excellent area. And I believe that right now, we're able to redraft the business plans of the logistics companies interested in that area, incorporating the strong increases of the interest rates in the last two years. And also, it's something I'm not hiding. I said this when we presented the results.
We are not easy because of the public majority stakeholding. We don't have a proven experience in a specific area. In this case, the bidding of large plots for real estate plots, we are not an easy company to have a relationship with from a commercial perspective. We hope to be able to give you good news in the next weeks or months. María José, the floor is yours.
About the question on the activities to develop in the portfolio, we mustn't forget that the airports can only develop the activities that are linked, directly linked to the aviation activity, no. So our airports, the activities we analyze and we are working on are activities that, as I said before, have to do with the core business, which is aviation and cargo, loads and hangars, all the logistics. Of course, there's an office area and complementary activities.
This is something we're working on. We have to take into account that, putting in the market the lands and developing these activities has to do with the development and the needs, airport needs that we have in each airport with the market timing, with the demands, and with the investments that have to be carried out. Also, as I mentioned, inside the strategic plan, in the case of Madrid, we would have put in the market 25% of all the surface. We will continue in Barcelona and other airports where we have identified options, for example, in Málaga and Valencia too.
We have some online questions. José Manuel Arroyas from Santander wants to do three international questions. We have announced today that the goal in 2026 for the EBITDA of the group to be 20% above 2023. But that includes, well, a softer goal. How would that change if we take out that goal? It would go from EUR 8 billion to what? Second time, what kind of international assets are you looking for? And we talk about touristic airports, hub airports. And the third one, if in GAP in Mexico, is still strategic for Aena. O kay. Thank you, José Manuel. I think the questions are pretty clear. So I'll give the floor to the Executive Vice President for the first question. And I'll take the other two.
What assets is Aena looking for? I think that if we put that question in the generic statement I made of that our approach to international projects is opportunistic, I mean, this is self-explanatory. Aena is the largest airport company in the world. So we receive quite frequently proposals and international projects. What do we do?
We analyze them all in a natural way, depending on how much we know the countries, cultural traditions, depending on our presence or non-presence in those countries. Then a long list. We have some we are sometimes inclined to certain countries, but we aren't closed to anything. The combination has to be with that quality assets. And by this, I mean aviation quality, second, with economic and financial parameters that perfectly fit in the profitability we require in the medium and long term. And thirdly, that the country and so on, its legal framework and their track record, that they offer us the trust we need. This being said, is Latin America a more natural market for a start for us? The initial answer would be, yes.
Is that incompatible with I mean, maybe not now, but in 10 years for the company to surprise with a geographical area that right now will be difficult to expect? Yes, that may happen. So I said this. I said, "In 10 years," so that this is not on me. I won't be here anymore. No, but about Mexico, it's not different to what we have or what we may look at. I think that the obligation in that goal we want to maximize, which is the equity value of the company, the management obligation of the board of directors is to know as precisely as possible the value of our assets, no. And from that knowledge, you can make decisions one way or the other. But the value knowledge doesn't predetermine the decision.
And also, I'd like to harness your question because I read the investor relations reports that are drafted by the management of Ignacio Castejón. I have the feeling that we have this mantra or this tagline with a non-satisfactory track record of the international experience of Aena. And I don't agree at all with this supposed trend because when we see what happened with Luton or with GAP, it is true that Brazil is well, everything is a bit premature because we haven't been there enough. But I can see that Brazil right now already and I mean, we're talking about the award, things are going well. So I think that the track record of the company should be the opposite of what is said, no. This is an endorsement so that any international acquisition should be, well, looked with a kind gaze.
Also, I don't forget that the incentives of the large investment funds are different from Aena's. I understand this, no. You have money invested in Aena, and Aena is investing in Brazil. I mean, the investment fund would say, "I mean, I'd rather make the investment myself in Brazil than through Aena." I understand that. But it has to be compatible with understanding that a company has its own life, its own trajectory, always trying to preserve the equity value of the company for the shareholders. And I believe that our track record is a good, well, letter of presentation. We can be wrong, yes. And I don't think we have been wrong very much, many times in the past. And the first one about the 20% EBITDA increase, no. How does that how do you crunch that, no, with the goal, no?
How do you exclude any kind of additional M&A? So it's compare the estimate EBITDA for 2026, including generating the Luton, ANB, and BOAB compared to 2026, excluding the reversal of ANB so that it can be comparable. It doesn't include any the additional EBITDA to reach that 15%.
Hi, Fernando Lafuente from Alantra. My question is about the capital allocation of the company and how the EBITDA goes and the cash flow. Being aware they have an important investment period until the next DORA, the company will get there in a very powerful financial situation. Listening to you about, well, the international activities, the probabilities to get with that a strong position are even higher. So my question is, how do you see the combination between investment and compensation to the shareholder? It's true that we have a high payout. It's 80%.
But it may be even higher, I don't know, in terms of payout or maybe an acquisition of their own shares. I mean, how do you see that debate until 2026? And I believe it's still until we see the CapEx of the next DORA. But to see where we're going.
Thanks, Fernando. The question is pretty clear. It's, well, an appropriate question. I understand that. A timely question. But the answer by the company doesn't change what we explained until now. It is true that our net debt EBITDA ratio, well, will be below two. I saw this with Ignacio Castejón. We reviewed this, and I understand this. But at the same time, I say this is a privilege. I've seen in the years I've been working some companies that made many companies that have made mistakes.
I mean, we are far from a ratio where we can make big mistakes. But I see this as a potential problem from the lucky ones, right, that we have to be in a position to have to think about that. But in the short, medium term, this strategic plan refers to horizon, we are comfortable with 80% payout. It's difficult that Aena because of their hybrid nature, public-private nature, could do this. They could. But it's difficult. I would politically say, no. In the short, medium term, they won't adopt a strategy of buying shares. From the financial standpoint, if we forget the tax considerations, they are absolutely equivalent, the payout, than buying the treasury stock. Eugene Fama, you're right. And the markets incorporate the information, no, and you amortize them. Of course, there are some tax considerations that are of a different nature.
I talked to an old teacher of mine who's an expert in finance. He confirmed me what I'm going to say with a small paper he published. I don't see a big difference or trust if I forget the tax considerations, no, the taxation. For us, it's more organic to always go on the dividend side. Could that change in the future? Maybe. I'm not talking about the buying shares. I'm talking about the payout. I don't see this in the short- or medium-term.
Morning, Victor Acitores from Société Générale. Three simple questions. If your strategic plan to explain, do you see an increase in the airport charges in the next DORA? The second one is from the EUR 3 billion additional CapEx, how much is allocated to Madrid? And if you are interested in the slot rights alone in Heathrow in the sale.
Thanks, Victor. I think, yeah, the CEO can take this.
The second and third one and the charges increase or the fee increase. But I'd like for the VP to extend my explanation. Madrid, as far as I'm concerned, how much CapEx is up today is a project work in progress. But we have to, well, to make some procurement. Our initial estimate is for the investment in T4S. We don't need to change the runways. They are very well. And the T1, T2, T3, where we'll carry out an important refurbishment with our processor, that would be on the land side. Our estimate today is that it will go to EUR 2.4 billion. That is the figure that the Prime Minister also confirmed a month ago about Heathrow. We usually don't comment on specific transactions because, I mean, we would be going in a little bit of a muddy area.
But if I was to comment on Heathrow, we always said that, well, our initial goal is on airports that entail an important development, both maybe in terms of air traffic expected in the country or maybe because they have to be developed with important works, such as the case in the northeastern Brazil airports or in Congonhas. So Congonhas, well, there wasn't much competition there because, I mean, you have to sweat it. There is a difficult airport. And even for the best teams in the world, and I think those are the Aena's teams, this will entail a technical challenge. And also for the difficulty of the CapEx. Heathrow is part of an airport group that is not inside our organic goal. Maybe if the circumstances were the right ones, it could be well, yeah, maybe, but not initially about increasing the oh, no, sorry.
The increase in the charges that the Executive VP told you in the presentation would be a little. We won't rush into estimates because the algorithm takes several elements into account. It has investments, but also traffic, quality issues, environment, and even what the airport general manager said, what we believe will be done today. We have to, well, shape it, to finish shaping it up. In the final profile, we have to take into account the airline company's opinion, right? One of the elements we take a look at is to have a competitive tariff scheme, no. One of our main features is that we have to be efficient and look for synergies. This has enabled us to be, and we want to continue to be, an operator with, well, the capacity we have to and with competitive fees.
To present a DORA proposal with tariffs that are out of a competitive scope wouldn't be very reasonable because of how the industry is, and not just the aviation industry, but those who depend on the tourism sector. Also, the regulatory framework is quite clear. There's a WACC, as the president mentioned. We see no reason why the WACC set by the regulator to be a WACC that can be explained from a technical standpoint because we have well, we have seen in the past some approvals, no. And the conditions, macro conditions that, well, have an influence in the calculation of the WACC. And also, there'll be an investment proposal that we have to include the temporary needs of those investments with regulatory closing, with reasonable fees and a reasonable WACC. But throughout next year, we'll be able to have more data.
A new one in Madrid is EUR 2.4 billion, the investment right now we expect. But we probably won't be all for the next DORA. It will start in this one. It won't take a big bulk in next DORA. And there will be something about what the general manager explained that will go to the next DORA. So we have to see the needs, take a look at the needs, and how we fit this. And this will be a different investment profile, a stable of EUR 600 million a year. And of course, we will try to fit the needs and priorities. Have the time for just one more question. This is the last one.
Thank you.
Hi. Thank you for the presentation. One question about traffic. You talked about growth between 3% and 4%. I'd like to know if there is a pessimistic scenario that you may have contemplated to make a sensitivity analysis that would enable you to continue close to the EBITDA goals for 2026. Also, I'd like to know if you have guidance for operating cash flow for 2026 about the EUR 2.2 billion of 2023, if you could give us a guideline. Finally, if you don't think there will be a measure in Spain that somehow limits air traffic compared to other alternatives such as train, etc.
Thank you for the question, Óscar. CEO, I'm going to just answer the third one and the second one later. The first one can be Javier and Elena can take the first one.
Apologies because maybe this took longer than we expected. We didn't give enough time for questions. But rest assured that from this time on, our investor relations team led by Ignacio Castejón will be available to answer everything you may need.
The last question about any measures to limit air traffic. We can only talk about what we know. There's a covenant between the parties in coalition and the government to study the momentum to encourage measures to limit flights where there are alternatives of high-speed train or train of less than 2.5 hours and whenever those roads don't have international connections. So for example, we're talking about the hub in Madrid or the one that we'll have in Barcelona. We don't expect more measures like that in the short, medium term. And we believe that this measure will have low impact if it was to take place in the next years. This is what I can tell you.
Also, I believe that all the political parties from the government are well aware of the essential importance of tourism in Spain. It's the main sector analyzed individually of the Spanish economy. I believe that everyone assumes, except some extravagant commons we've seen, that for the tourism to be able to keep on making progress, we need a solid air transport. I think that is an important argument to trust the future of the company.
Yes. The growth center scenario was 2.9 accumulated growth, the high 3.9 and the low 2.2. You have the data in the presentation also. About your second question, we didn't give a specific guidance of cash flows for 2026. But I would say you have regulated CapEx in DORA with the information there. We have the debt repayment schedule. So, for the cash flow and gross figures with the information, anyone can make an approach to that cash flow you are asking for.
Okay. The meeting is adjourned. Thank you for your attendance. I know there were some questions that are in line, but we will answer them all very quickly. Thank you. I just wanted to thank you. Yes, sincerely, thank you for being here today: the members of the board of directors, the majority shareholder with the Secretary of State for Transport, members of the management team, also analysts, investors, and other people that have followed us. It has been a good day for us today because we changed the strategic plan beforehand, but for good reasons. I hope that we can keep on exchanging information in the following months. I hope it'll be good information. Thank you for your attendance.