Thank you for standing by. My name is Bhavesh, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Aena 1H 2023 Results Presentation. At this time, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the one again. Thank you. Mr. Ignacio Castejón, Finance Director, you may begin your conference.
Thank you very much. Welcome everyone to the first half year results for year 2023 of Aena. Without further delay, I'll pass the floor to our Chairman and CEO, Maurici Lucena, and to José Leo , our CFO. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Nacho. Good afternoon, everybody. Let me please formally welcome you all to our 1H 2023 results presentation. It's a real pleasure being today with all of you. I, as usual, will start with the key highlights before I give the floor consecutively to José Leo and also before the Q&A to Ignacio Castejón. If you allow me, I will start with traffic. Concerning the first half of 2023, I think that traffic, and of course, as a consequence, also, all the financial results have been performing very well.
In terms of traffic, Aena as a group, as a global group, increased its traffic by 22.8%, up to 144.1 million passengers. It implies a recovery, again, globally of 100.5% compared to 2019. We can finally, and again, confirm that the COVID effect and the COVID wave, it's ended. This is very good news. Specifically, concerning the Spanish network, traffic increased up to 129.4 million passengers. It represents a recovery compared to 2019 of 101.2%. London, Luton, 90.3% recovery.
Brazil, and now I'm referring to the Northeast Brazilian airports, not including yet the new 11 Brazilian airports. Again, in Brazil, the first semester of 2023 represented a recovery of 100.5%. In Spain, we still are facing a kind of asymmetry between domestic traffic and international traffic, but the gap is closing. Domestic traffic performed equivalent to 107% compared to 2019, and international traffic reached a recovery of 98.5%.
Therefore, I can confirm that we clearly stick to our 2023 traffic guidance for the Spanish network, which I remind you that it's between 94%-104% in terms of 2019 traffic. Of course, I think that we have to be realistic and we shall not forget the potential headwinds ahead of us. I'm referring to the evolution of the cost of living. There could be, in the future, supply-side problems such as strikes, staff issues, and aircraft deliveries problems.
However, I also want to be very clear, stating that it seems that many, many airlines are still very confident that the current trend continues in the last quarter, 2023. I think that the summary would be that we are realistic, but we are still pretty optimistic in terms of the traffic for the rest of the year. I now leap to financials. You can see in the press release this morning that total consolidated revenues for the Aena group reached EUR 2.3 billion. Aeronautical revenue stood at EUR 1.3 billion. Commercial revenue EUR 715.3 million. Real estate revenue, EUR 47.8 million, and international activity, EUR 287.5 million.
On the costs side, which is very important in a context where the inflation is high, we are pretty satisfied, I can say, because the total OpEx stood at EUR 1.1 billion, + 8.1% in comparison with the first half of 2022. Actually, I can say that, of course, apart from some inflationary pressures, you should remind that the traffic growth made Aena reopen terminals and subcontract many activities that did not exist in the first half of 2022. That is why I was saying that we are pretty much satisfied with the evolution of the OpEx. Again, I repeat, in an inflationary context.
The EBITDA stood at a noteworthy EUR 1.2 billion. This is very important, the EBITDA margin closed at 50.2%. This EBITDA margin, you know, is one of the highest in the airport industry. Let me stop just a few seconds at this point, because I would say that both in terms of total revenues and the EBITDA margin, I can expect and strongly expect that we will reach our strategic plan targets, I would say, well ahead in time.
I think that we are in a position to beat the targets that we defined in the context of our strategic plan, both in terms of revenues and, I repeat, in terms of EBITDA margin, which I guess is very good news for our shareholders. All in all, the net profit in the first half of 2023 reached EUR 607.7 million, confirming the prospects for an attractive dividend in 2024, and the net cash from operating activities stood at EUR 1 billion.
I would say in short, that the main drivers of our EBITDA and of our net profit were traffic growth, the very positive commercial performance, and of course, it, we were lucky, everyone, that we faced a lower electricity bill. We also have, we will have time afterwards to explain what specifically it is. We also had the positive financial results. It is true that it was not a large one, but it really made a marginal difference. No, not in terms of EBITDA. I'm referring now to the net profit. We'll explain it later on. Now I pass, I now move to the commercial activity.
You can see when you read our results, that we experienced a very robust growth trend of commercial revenues. I would say that it was based on, first, the commercial sales of the first half of 2023 exceeded 2022's by 7.6%. Second, all the material commercial businesses lines surpassed 2019's. Third, variable and fixed rents invoiced in the first half of 2023 beat 2022 figures by over 23%. From a qualitative perspective, I would say that apart from the evident traffic growth, I think that the progressive recovery of the U.K. passengers and their new non-European, non-European Union status in duty-free was an important qualitative factor.
Another one was the reopening of most of our specialty shops that remained closed because of the financial hurricane as a consequence of the COVID crisis. Also, I would underline that we have experienced a very welcome increase in per-passenger penetration rates in foods, in food and beverage. Finally, I would also like to highlight qualitatively, the price increases in car parking and VIP lounges. I think it's been a very good performance of our commercial activity. From, again, a qualitative perspective, I would like to remind you all that we keep including, and we are proud of it, the minimum annual warranty arrangements as a fundamental element in our contractual framework.
In figures, I would underline that since November 2021, we have awarded more than 280 contracts in food and beverage, specialty shops, and financial services, with a minimum annual guarantee rents increase of, for instance, 130% in 2023, in comparison with 2019. On the other hand, yesterday, you know that we held a meeting of the board of directors, and the board of directors made two very important decisions. First, we approved the airport charges proposal applicable from the 1st of March 2024, setting the adjusted annual maximum revenue per passenger, the famous IMAA for 2024 at EUR 10.35.
Second, concerning the duty-free tender and leaving aside the, let's say, media noise that we experienced a few weeks ago, we are very happy to, well, announce that we yesterday awarded the duty-free contracts for Madrid and Catalonia. It means that the whole business, I mean, I'm now referring to the whole duty-free business for Spain. I will just give an example. The minimum annual warranty rents for 2024 are 16% higher than in 2023. I think it's very good news for Aena, very good news for our shareholders, because all in all, it means that the new contracts, again, I'm referring to duty-free, firstly, preserve our business model of minimum annual guaranteed rents.
Secondly, for instance, I would highlight that it means that Aena will have, will perceive revenues for a minimum of EUR 6.3 billion in the period from 2024 to 2035. I'm now starting the end of my presentation. I would like to highlight two milestones. The first one is in the international and finance, excuse me, the financial, the international activities. In Brazil, you know that we were awarded last year, the concession for 11 airports, including Congonhas. You know that the transfer of the facilities to Aena will happen during the second half of this year.
The second element I would like to highlight is related to financing activities. Aena has recently executed a sustainable syndicated credit facility for EUR 2 billion that has been signed by 14 national and international financial institutions. I'm sure that we will have time to discuss any other issues that you want me to comment on. Now I stop here. I just would like to thank you for your attention. Thank you very much.
Okay, good afternoon, everybody. I will carry on providing some more detail on the key messages that, our Chairman and Chief Executive, already made, by way of introduction. I would start by sharing with you what I believe are the main.
H eadlines or views that can come out of this particular slide that you have in front of you. What is clear is that now we have to compare ourselves with 2019. We have been doing that already for a while, probably to a certain extent, that was an academic exercise, but now it's a very realistic one. Clearly, the reference to us now is 2019, that was the record year from every angle. I say that because we are back on track at a similar level. To start with, the passenger numbers are now, in line with the 2019 numbers.
As the chairman said, we maintain, we keep in place the guidance for the rest of the year, but clearly it wouldn't be, it wouldn't be surprising to see the year ending there or thereabout the 2019 figures, or slightly over. It's true that the summer months are showing slightly less, let's say, aggressive growth rate for reasons that we can discuss. Most of them driven by, in our view, the offer side of the business, the airline's strategies and the airline yield, let's say, strategies, to put it that way, you know? Plus other bits and pieces driven by some operational issues or issues coming from the let's say, the provision of new aircraft.
The revenues are clearly up on the 2019 figures. We will see that later on, that there is an element of accounting as a result of the way we are now spreading the minimum guarantee rent revenue over the year. But this is now really minimal. It's not a big deal. The headline here is that we are already exceeding the revenues of 2019 with a similar level of traffic. That means that the yields are improving, and particularly the commercial revenue per passenger figures are growing up, and in a way that we believe is fairly sustainable.
EBITDA is now at, once again, at the 2019 level, and that's very telling, because 2019 was the record year with, 2.7, well, more than EUR 2.7 billion in EBITDA. The question mark would be: Will we be able to deliver similar level of EBITDA now? Well, I will stop short of confirming that. What is clear is that both the 2019 EBITDA figure and the 55% margin that we set ourselves as objectives for the strategic plan, and that we were expecting to deliver by 2024, let's say the far end of 2024, or beginning of 2025, are very likely to be reached earlier than that. Net result is also already exceeding 2019 figures.
It's true, and this has been already mentioned by the chief executive officer, that we have now a number of one-offs in the financial result line. That are unlikely to be, let's say, sustainable, or they are driven by a number of things that have been disclosed, and we can discuss later on. In total, net of profit, net of taxes, that's around EUR 50 million-EUR 51 million. Take that away, still, your, our net result is exactly flat on 2019, which is frankly quite something, huh?
As we can see later, but more importantly, the trajectory is in the positive because it's going positively because the second quarter has been much, a much better quarter than the first quarter, both in absolute terms, which is something you would expect because of the seasonality, but more importantly, when in relative terms, where we are because we are improving vis-à-vis 2019, more in the second quarter than in the first quarter. In summary, we are in the right trajectory and at the speed that is clearly faster than we originally planned. Can we move on to the next slide? Okay. In terms of the performance of the different business areas, I think generally speaking, all of them are performing really well.
It's true that the aeronautical element of the business is dragged to a point because of the tariff evolution and also, you know, there is an element of dilution that we will recover in two years' time. Still is performing really well and reaching levels that are not very far from the 2019 figures. The margin is clearly slightly below 49% in 2019, at this time of the year, 39% now. As we said before, it would be unrealistic, as we said a number of times already, it would be unrealistic to expect the margins that were achieved before the COVID to be achieved now. This is something that I want to stress again and to reiterate.
I call this good performance in terms of the art of the possible, of what we believe is realistic and achievable. The commercial business is back on track. We are exactly at the same margins, reaching the same margins, there or thereabouts, that we enjoyed in the first half of 2019. Now 77%, at that time, 78%. We are back on track, and this is really good, really good news, and probably one of the key features of the performance of this business post-COVID. In terms of the international side of the business, I just want to mention that obviously it's a completely different kind of animal. The dynamics are different, but the margins are affected by the fact that they are, normally we are running concessions.
Still, this is contributing double the EBITDA levels in absolute terms that used to contribute in 2019. This is good news because this is part of our strategy. Moving on. One more, please. Okay, obviously, as we have discussed already the traffic data, I just want to say that if you take a look at the pie charts, where in terms of the relative weight of the different traffic segments, we are back to the 2019 composition, there or thereabouts. We can say that it is true that the international traffic has been lagging behind, is catching up already. It will take some time to catch up in full, but it is not very far from the standard composition of traffic.
If you look at, for instance, long-haul traffic is now north of 9%. I think in 2019 was similar, was pretty much north of 9%. The international traffic, or sorry, the European traffic is not very far from 2019. I think in 2019 was, let me double-check, but to be precise. It was 59.7%. Now it's 57.6%. I want to stress this because this means that the international traffic is catching up. This is very good news because for close to one year, the main driver for the traffic growth was the domestic traffic.
It's true that if you look at the right-hand side of the slide, what is absolutely clear is that the leisure traffic, those airports that are that offer mainly leisure, well, that they are, let's say, used by leisure passengers, clearly are exceeding the recovery of the Madrid Barajas or the Barcelona Airport. Once again, they are close to catch up sooner rather than later. We can move on. I won't dwell on this, although I will be more than happy to discuss any of this information later on. Let's go on to the next slide, the commercial revenue summary.
This slide is telling us, you know, we consider this slide a very important one, because after the messy experience of the accounting issues, we now want to be very clear about what is really the performance of the underlying business. This is telling us two things. First of all, that the business activity, when you look at those rents that are regularly on a monthly basis, invoiced and collected the month, one month later, they are 19% above the 2019 figures. This is, well, this is something that you have been witnessing already for a number of quarters, but this is consolidating now, clearly. You have the MAGs that for us are very welcome. They are critical to us.
It is money, clearly, it is cash that will be collected the year after. The MAGs are growing 41%, which is also good. That means that this is a combination of two things. First of all, the DF7 is somehow ineffective because the traffic recovery is, let's say, offsetting its impact. Secondly, there are new contracts in place that are even more aggressive about the, in terms of the MAGs they are offering. This second element is still relatively minor, but clearly it will be growing over the coming months and years to start with, because we have now a new duty-free contract in place. And then the accounting things. You can see that the accounting overall is not having a huge impact.
The revenues are luckily enough not very far from the headline revenue is not very far from the reality of the business. The key message is the commercial business is growing extremely strongly. Going on to the next slide. This is a slide that is providing the information on the revenues in accounting terms, how they look like in the PNL. I want to stop on it, on this. Let's move on to the next. Here you have the once again, the fixed and variable element of the rent, those rents that are invoiced on a regular basis. What you can see here is that the recovery, this 19% that we mentioned before, is now widespread.
It's reaching all the different corners of the business. The specialty shop line was lagging. As you know, they were laggers because there were a number of shops still closed, but they are catching up. Now, in the second quarter, they are already growing 6.4%, and let's say, joining the rest of the group. Clearly, advertising is probably the business that is taking longer to get back on track. I think it's easy to understand. No need of huge explanations on that. The, say, the rest of the activities are growing. Indeed, they are also providing growth in terms of the revenue per passenger.
What we have now is EUR 0.74 or EUR 0.74 more per passenger than in 2019. Moving on to the OpEx. The OpEx is going up by around. Well, let's move on to the next probably, is much better because the total OpEx is going up as a combination of increase in activity, a full opening of all the terminals, all of that, partially offset by the electricity expenditure that is now roughly half the amount we were incurring at this time of the year in 2022. I think this slide is probably more important for you.
This slide is comparing the Spanish network expenditure in 2023, 2022, and 2019, the first half. I would like to focus on the comparison between 2023 and 2019. Excluding electricity, which is clearly, let's say, exceptional element of the equation, we are growing around 12%, and the increase in OpEx has been very similar in Q1 and Q2. I know this can be considered as a half-empty glass or a half-full glass. I have to say, it's a half-full glass. I know some of you might be tired of listening to me, but this is what we believe is now the art of the possible. This is the realistic picture of operating our airports. That was said by us before the COVID.
We reiterate that now after the COVID. Obviously with the, with the influence of the recent inflation readings, even more so. Growing at double digit, low double digit, is not surprising. It's, in our view, performing to the plan. It's being able to manage the operation efficiently. It's being able to extract the best of our management capacities. Frankly, we would struggle to do any better than this, and we believe we are good airport managers. On the other hand, it's clear that the 55% EBITDA margin, which at the end of the day would be the result of this activity and this management capacity, is not only to be achieved, is going to be achieved well ahead of the plan.
Happy to discuss operating costs, later on, but let me be absolutely clear: This is, for us, a very good result, a promising result, and is frankly delivering what we expected, what we planned. I would say no need to go any further in my view, unless you think otherwise. I would recommend to open the Q&A session.
Hello, operator. This is Ignacio Castejón from Aena. You can start the Q&A session, if you don't mind.
Thank you. At this time, if you'd like to ask a question, please press the star followed by the one on your telephone. If you'd like to cancel this request, please press the star followed by the one again. We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Cristian Nedelcu from UBS Group. Please go ahead with your question.
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe the first one on the EBITDA margin of above 55% from 2025 onwards. I guess since your capital markets day, the electricity prices have come down meaningfully. You have the duty-free contract signed. Can you elaborate a little bit how much above 55% you think you can go? I remember it used to be above 60% pre-COVID. Would that type of margin be possible in a few years again? The second one on the tariff increase, the 4% that you requested. Could you go a bit in more detail into the moving parts in the IMAA, so the adjustments there? I mean, from my notes, I had a tailwind from the K factor, then you put on top of it, the P factor.
I think you also had some COVID recovery cost in there. I was expecting a bit more than 4%, too, to be honest. Any more color on the moving parts there? I guess the third one, I mean, there's been a few articles in the press, these days around the possibility to see a scenario where Barcelona Airport would be separated, so will be no longer operated by Aena. From a legal point of view, would such a separation be possible? How would Aena be compensated? Is there anything in the current regulatory framework that, takes into consideration such a potential scenario? Can you give us more color there? Thank you.
Hello again, this is Maurici Lucena. I will answer the last question for obvious reasons. I will try to be crystal clear. I think that all that concerning the issue that you raised, all that has been published today, this is empty noise. I think that the Aena model is very well established by a strong 2014 law. I think that everybody agrees that the company is it functions very well, and one of its natural and recognized strengths, it's our network model.
I would like to really convey a message of tranquility to all our shareholders, both the public and especially our private state, our private owners, our private shareholders. This issue is not on the table. It is not on the table. Again, it's empty noise, and I really lament that in this day, today, that we have released our 1H 2023 results. This could have perturbated the picture of the current moment of the company, which is really good. Thank you.
Cristian, with regard to the EBITDA margin, we never said we will exceed the 55%. We said that 55% was the realistic, best-in-class, achievable, EBITDA margin in the, in the timeframe of the current DORA. Clearly, if we think in terms of DORA III, a number of things can change, may change. Some cards might be reshuffled. For instance, there will be no cap on charges. Secondly, the investment, the size of the investment program is likely to be more, let's say, more sizable, bigger. A number of things could impact over time in the next DORA period, the margins. Frankly, it is very difficult to us anticipate today whether or not that will end up in us getting back to the 60% + margin levels.
We will try hard, obviously, and we will do our best. In the time horizon of the existing DORA, what we believe is achievable doing our job properly and being efficient is 55%. No more than 55%, but 55%. What we can see now is that the original plan that was to reach that level, let's say, at the end of 2024, to be more precise, probably first half of 2025, is likely to happen earlier than that. That's what we say. We are not suggesting that we could get over 55%. If we can, we will do it, and probably the tailwind that could help would be the commercial revenue side of the business, but it's early days.
If you like, we stick to the commitment of delivering 55%, and we now say that this is likely to happen well ahead of the original plan. I hope this helps. We are considering everything together. Things you mentioned, like the new duty-free contract, well, different things are already factored in the equation. In terms of the charges, the airport charges increases that we are proposing, I will try to be precise, but probably the best thing is for the IR team to distribute the detail. I will try to provide as much information as possible. Obviously, there are a good number of numbers, no? First of all, the MAP, the maximum revenue per passenger, the starting point is EUR 10 for this year.
The most relevant factor adding to that is the P index proposal that we are making. That is 3.5%. 3.5% that has been endorsed by the CNMC, so technically it's very sound, very, very strong. It's true that that will open a process in which the, both the DGAC and potentially the government should be involved. The CNMC has agreed that our 3.5% proposal is absolutely sound and solid. That will take you to 10.35. You have a number of factors. The key factor this time around is positive, because we have to recover some dilution. I will stop short of sharing with you every number, but the IR team will provide the details.
All that together will take us to an increase before considering any impact of the COVID costs. If we take away the COVID costs from the 2023 charges, and we take away the COVID costs from the 2024 charges, the headline increase would be close to 6%. To be more precise, 5.97%. We have COVID charges. In 2023, the COVID charges were applied and were recovered. This year, we are not proposing, we are not requesting COVID costs to be recovered. The reason for that is that we are very close to receive an allowance grant from the European Union. If we do that, obviously we cannot charge the airlines, we cannot get twice the same revenue of the recovery. We are very close to that.
We, in discussions with the CNMC and with the airlines, we said, we are not going to propose to add COVID charges to the tariffs. Of course, if we fail to get the allowance, the grant, we will get back to request the inclusion of these costs. We are pretty sure that this is going to be obtained, so there's no reason to. Well, there is no reason, we would be wrong to get this twice, no? With all that in mind, we end up in EUR 10.35 per passenger for 2024. That means a 4.09% increase on 2023. That was EUR 9.95 per passenger.
Excellent. Very, very helpful. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Elodie Rall from JP Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. My first one is on traffic. We've seen some lower traffic figures indeed in June, and I think you commented that it is due to airlines prioritizing yield over capacity. My question is: do you see this as a risk for the rest of the year? How are the trends in July so far, if you could comment on that? In terms of bookings and capacity for the winter season as well. My second question is on MAGS and the outcome from the tenders that you've just secured. I wanted to have your opinion about the two specific contracts of Barcelona and Madrid. Barcelona in particular, and how satisfied you were by the outcome of these contracts.
Lately, lastly, sorry, on the accounting of MAGS specifically. I know you said it's not that relevant anymore, but in Q1, we had EUR 79 million, in Q2, EUR 20 million. Just was wondering what to expect for Q3 and Q4, if you could comment? Thank you.
Hello again, this is Maurici Lucena. I will answer the question concerning the duty-free tender, if I understood correctly, I understood correctly. I think that honestly, we are happy with the results of the overall tender. The way Aena contracts or subcontracts or assigns contracts to our clients is not the easiest one in the world. It means that sometimes we experience a public noise that with another system of procurement, we would not experience. This is this is related to our 51% state-owned ownership. But I mean, for us, this is something that we have completely incorporated in the way we function.
I think that in the end, the system works, well, but, in the meantime, sometimes as it was the case with Madrid and Catalonia, when, At first, we could not close the deal that was finally closed with Dufry. Again, we experienced a public noise, that it is only noise, because in the end, what matters, I think, is the combination of the quality of the new or the renewed duty-free shops that will, I think that will be very high, and especially the financial results. The financial results, no matter how you analyze them, are very good.
Let's remind that the starting point, I mean, the past contract was very demanding, was very challenging as you just have to compare in relative terms, how much money Aena is able to earn from the duty-free activity when you compare our duty-free shops with other competitors. With this very demanding, challenging starting point, I think that the figures are very, very good. Of course, you always want more, but we are realistic, and we defined in our first tender, what were our minimum, and these minimums have been overcome. We are happy.
Madrid and Barcelona, it is true that they have finally just or we have just finally reached a marginal increase in terms of our original tender. We also knew from the beginning that Madrid and Barcelona were the most demanding contracts among the Spanish among the rest. We are happy, I think it's been a good business for Aena, and probably I must confess that the result, the final result, has even been a little higher than I could expect at the beginning. I'm happy in a double sense. Thank you.
Okay. With regard to traffic, what we have witnessed is, and frankly, it is difficult and very difficult to get to the bottom of every single driver or element that is influencing the situation. What we see is that the demand is very robust, the demand is there, and we see no reason to be concerned about this in the foreseeable future. What we also see is that from the offer side, there are, on one side, some issues, and on the other side, some strategies. Issues are linked to some very aggressive airlines. Airlines that were very keen on adding capacity aggressively for the summer, are struggling to get the aircraft they need.
The, some other airlines are finding that if they add more capacity, because of the potential industrial conflicts at the origin airports, they may end up canceling flights, and they believe that this won't be good for them. They prefer to be a slightly more conservative, at least for the time being. Clearly, the airlines are playing the card of the yield enhancement, which I understand. They've went through a very difficult time, and they are right to try hard to get back the, their profitability. The combination of all these factors are, and believe me, it's not easy.
This is not something that you can quantify element by element, but we believe that the combination of these different factors are leading to, let's say, flying, a number of aircraft that is not as, is not reaching the levels that they originally wanted and expected, but the load factors are going up. I mean, we are reaching load factors that are at historic highs here in Spain now. The consequence of that is that the growth that we experienced in the first six months of or five months of the year, vis-à-vis 2019, is likely to be a slightly less, let's say, clear in the summer. By no means, we are suggesting that this is going backwards, not at all, because the demand is there.
It won't be, it won't be surprising to see modest growth on the 2019 summer or even flattish numbers. It wouldn't be surprising. This is not bad news. This is simply a fact of life. This could happen any year in the past, pre-COVID, and in the future, because airlines also have the right to do the job the way they want, no? We are not at all concerned by that. We believe that the guidance we are providing is still valid. We believe that if you, let's say, make a mathematical average of the 94 and 104, you could end up around 99%, 100 or 101. You won't be wrong to expect that to be the final outcome of the year.
Finally, let me say, we don't know more than you in a way. Obviously, we have information, we have inputs that are very valid and very valuable, but we don't know what the airlines might be doing in three or four months from now. For the time being, we believe they are protecting the yield. For the time being, we believe that expecting the year to end up being flattish or slightly over 2019, it is a very reasonable expectation. We might be wrong, and maybe we see more growth coming or. Rest assured that we don't see any reason to be concerned about the demand side of the business.
We don't see the general macro conditions or any economic issues, really, eroding the healthy demand that we have been witnessing over the last months. I hope this helps. With regard to the other comment you make, which is accounting of the MAGs. I didn't say that the, we shouldn't be, or we should forget about the accounting. No, I didn't say that. What I said is that when looking at the quarter, sorry, the half year, results, the commercial revenue, the element of the commercial revenue, which is driven by accounting, is not really, contributing hugely. The, the reason why the 2019, commercial revenues, or sorry, the 2023 commercial revenues are better than the 2019 commercial revenues are, a very legitimate underlying, improvement in performance.
The accounting element is adding, but it's adding marginally. I wouldn't put too much focus on that now. The accounting going forward is going to continue being a sort of a confusing element. Let me try to describe for you what is going to be the most relevant element of that. That still is not impacting the numbers. The most relevant element of that is going to be that we will be spreading the MAGs evenly over the years of a particular contract. If you take a look at the duty-free contracts, the new contracts for duty-free, they are going to commit growing MAGs year -on -year for 12 years. Between now and 2036.
We will have to, unless we are invariable, to the extent that we keep operating under MAGs, we will have to account for those MAGs evenly. Every year, every day, every second, we'll have the same MAGs revenue, despite the fact that some of them will be collected in 2028, in 2030, in 2032. This is the reason why the accounting could be generating some confusion, but we cannot get rid of that. What we will do is to be very transparent about the real element of the commitment in terms of when the MAGs are due. Also, we will be disclosing the underlying trends of the business, including the MAGs. The MAGs accounting will have a very significant impact going forward. I didn't say the contrary.
What I said is that in this particular comparison between the first half of 2023 and the first half of 2019, this is not really adding. You cannot say the revenues are up because they're of the accounting. No, that's not the case. They are massively this improvement is almost entirely driven by the business, by the underlying business performance.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Luis Prieto from Kepler. Please go ahead with your question.
Good afternoon, Maurici and team. I had a couple of questions, if I may. The first one is, in the context of the endorsed 3.5% P factor for 2024 that you were commenting on, if it finally materializes, how should we think about future years? Does the situation leave the door open to the elimination of the 1% P factor cap at any point in time? The second idea or the second question is if you can provide any sort of guidance of where variable rents would be in the agreed duty contracts to sort of assess the likelihood of them being above MAGs at any point in time. Thank you.
Well, Hi, Luis. With regard to the P index, the good news is that we have confirmed that the, so to speak, 1% universal cap was not really such a thing. It is just something that won't apply to the extent that your Let's say the, let me say, the indexes that are set to be making up the calculation, which are well established in the regulation, the extent they are not delivering something different. If you are trying to, let's say, run an exceptional request on the P index. Sorry to be, probably it's a bit confusing because there are a number of legal elements here, but just to try to get to the bottom.
If you are trying to argue that there are exceptional circumstances and such and such, you would face the challenge of the 1% cap. If the indexes that are meant to be looked at when pulling together the calculation are delivering something which is different from 1%, we have concluded that you can apply for that particular outcome, and the CNMC agreed. The indexes that are meant to be making up the calculation ended up delivering 3.5%. We went to the CNMC and said, "There is nothing in the law preventing us from requesting or asking for 3.5%." The CNMC said, "Yeah, you're right." This is good news. I hope that will apply forever. That doesn't mean that every year you are going to exceed the...
This is not about inflation. This is not about saying, "Well, we are closer to something that is similar to applying the CPI." No, we are not close to that. What we have been able to clarify is that to the extent that the component parts of the P index are delivering something, you can ask for that something. This is a step ahead, obviously. Good news. Nacho will be answering the other question.
Thank you, José. Hello, Luis. Your question on the variable rents, let me share with you a couple of things to try to help you and provide you some further information. When the company was putting together all the tender, the decision was made with respect to trying to set a very high level for MAGs. The outcome was very successful, as has just been explained by Maurici, and we managed to increase the MAGs by 16% if we compare levels of 2023 versus 2024. At the same time, what I would like to state very clearly is that the company also made a decision about not disclosing the variable rents.
We think it's a very sensitive piece of information, given our relationship, our contractual relationships with the duty-free, with the duty-free providers. What I would like to state is just one more thing, that of course, the variable rents that were tender were higher than the one that we have in our documents. The outcome was also successful from our side. Thank you.
Excellent. Thank you very much .
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sathish Sivakumar from Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.
Yeah, thank you. I've got two questions here. First, on the commercial revenue, can you, like, explain, like, the price mixes as the volume mix, the 6% growth that you're seeing, how much of it's actually a function of just inflation? Because as you see recovery in long-haul traffic coming through, you should have seen at least the volume of transactions should have been, or the growth should have been more than the inflation level. Second is, how does your spend compare, say, any color on long-haul traffic as a short-haul passenger spend? Second one is around the corporate travel, like what is your exposure to corporate traffic? I believe, yeah, it's mainly the leisure mix here, but just any color on that would be actually really helpful.
The reason is actually airlines are pulling back some of their winter schedules, as we speak, especially from the low-cost carriers. Just wanted to understand, like, are you actually starting to see that? I'm not talking about the summer. I'm talking beyond the summer, the winter schedule is being scaled back. Which mean that as you go into the winter, probably the upside would be more of a corporate traffic coming back rather than the leisure? Yeah. Thank you.
Okay, I will answer some of them, and Nacho will take some others. When you ask about the Q and the P of the commercial revenue, frankly, this is a difficult answer to be given over a webcast. I will suggest that we will try and get to you some. It's difficult because frankly, there are a number of factors. This is not about saying what is the quantity element and what is the inflation element. It's much more complex than that. Excuse me if I don't give you a simple answer, saying X percent of the increase is driven by inflation, Y percent of the increase is driven by the higher or the propensity to consume more.
What is absolutely clear is that some of the drivers which are having a much more significant impact without quantifying them, are driven by, I don't know, behaviors. The Brexit impact on the propensity of the U.K. visitors to spend because they can benefit from the VAT refund or the well, the lack of VAT billing. We also have a very clear example of let's call it propensity to spend more in all the VIP services. It is unbelievable to what extent people are now queuing to get into a VIP lounge. I don't mean the airline lounges, but our lounges and ready to pay.
In my view, a significant amount of the improvement is driven by changes that post-COVID, or for whatever reasons, or post-Brexit, are making people to be more keen on spending or using our services. Inflation, of course, is playing a part, but it's difficult to quantify in a very simple way. With regard to corporate traffic, Nacho will be answering. I just want to demote, so to speak, the importance of corporate traffic for Aena. I don't mean by that is not an element of it. At the end of the day, this is not about mainly business travelers. It's about let's say leisure traffic, international and domestic.
The business traffic is very welcome, and as long as it is back in full, we will benefit from that. This is not a make or break kind of situation, as you may see in other airports. If you think of, I don't know, JFK or even Heathrow, or you can say, well, the corporate traffic here is critical. If you take a look at the Aena's network, we have 46 airports in Spain, and before handing you over to Nacho, with regard to airlines pulling capacity, definitely they are pulling capacity.
With regard to the original plans, the way this went was initially some of them in particular, some of them, and you can very easily guess who were very aggressive, reaching record commitments, and then now they are pulling. Pulling, obviously not dramatically, still in the up, but pulling some of the capacity for the reasons that I discussed before, we believe, okay? But there's nothing dramatic. At the end of the day, the end game of that is what I said before. We will be there or there about the 2019 traffic or slightly over, or that is our view of the 2023 picture. This is summing up all the different trends that you can see over the summer, in the winter.
Definitely the airlines are now slightly less, particularly the low-cost carriers, slightly less keen on growing dramatically, although they are still adding capacity and are more focused on earnings. The load factors are record now in our network. Now, I think from memory, we are reaching levels of 95% load factors on average. This is quite something.
Thank you. Could I just follow up actually on the commercial revenue spend? Like, what is the difference you see between, say, a long-haul passenger versus a short-haul passenger?
Sorry, you're right. You made that question as well. Normally, overall, the long haul some long haul, some nationalities are more propense to spend, at least to spend large amounts of money, no? Nobody ignores that the Asian traffic is particularly important for that. The Russian traffic was important for that.
B efore the war, obviously. it is absolutely fair to say that the Chinese traffic in Spain hasn't come back yet. once again, unfortunately, maybe, unfortunately, the weight of the Chinese traffic in our network is relatively small. Hopefully, in a number of years, we will get significantly more Chinese visitors or Indian visitors or people coming from that part of the world. for the time being, they are not really moving the dial dramatically. when they come back, the commercial revenue per passenger will benefit from this coming back. Of course, absolutely. Nationalities are the main driver, sometimes more than the reasons for the travel, that of the revenue per passenger. It is what it is.
Yeah. Thank you.
Hi, Sathish. Just a quick comment on your question after José's explanation on the business travel or corporate travel. I think one of the main reasons for the recovery of Aena, a faster recovery than our peers, has been that structurally, we have around 75% of our passengers are basically VFR or leisure. This is based on basically Q&A, statistics, internal statistics of the company, based on samples. What I would like to say is that business travelers in Aena were not much higher, have always been below 20%. At this moment in time, the recovery, the level would be around mid-teens, so we are still a bit below that kind of passengers, if we compare 19 with 2022.
Those are the latest, that's the latest data that we have. It's coming back, and will come back as soon as Madrid, Barajas, and Barcelona are also back. If you look at the recovery of those airports, they are still a bit behind, and that's where we are seeing the lower recovery in terms of business passengers. I believe that the second part of your question was relating business traveler and low cost and legacy carriers. At this moment in time, we are seeing that there is an equal split with respect to carrying that kind of passengers between that type of airlines.
Of course, all this info is based on samples, large samples carried by the company, but it is information that we have at this moment in time, Sathish.
Thank you. Thanks for that.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Manish Beria from Société Générale . Please go ahead with your question.
Yes, thanks for the opportunity. I have two questions. The first is on your commercial spending per pax guidance in 2026. I mean, you had this guidance of EUR 5.38. I see, I mean, commercial plus real estate in 2019, per pax with it, EUR 4.8, and the duty-free that you have already awarded, I mean, if you do that, I mean, it adds, I mean, plus food and beverages that you have done, are probably at, like, EUR 0.6, no? You're already reaching there, no, just with the duty-free and some food and beverage contracts. I'm just wondering, the comment that you have made, the behavior is changing, Brexit is helping. Why not, I mean, your guidance will be significantly exceeded?
I mean, what is the realistic target that you can look at at this point in time? This is my first question. The second is also, you mentioned, that in DORA III, the CapEx spending will be very important for the investment thesis of Aena. Just with the political ramification, I mean, because Barcelona is one where we need more CapEx. With the political events happening, do you think we'll get a go ahead or green signal for the Barcelona CapEx to happen there?
This is Maurici Lucena. I will answer your second question. Well, you know, we, as a company, I think that we've were, and we are very transparent. We simultaneously... Actually, it was four years ago, but you know, then we went through this COVID crisis. If you leave aside the crisis and all of the perturbations it introduced in the technical proposals for Aena. Let's say that we, after the worst effects of the COVID crisis, we simultaneously proposed the expansion, the enlargement of Madrid and Barcelona, both. You know that they are the most important airports for Aena, the largest ones, the most profitable, and so on.
I think we were very careful when we simultaneously proposed the enlargement of both facilities. The reality is that the enlargement of Madrid was unanimously accepted and Barcelona was not because the Catalan government. It is true that it had and it has an environmental complexity. That is why we needed as a sine qua non condition, the approval of the Catalan government because of the environmental issue. The Catalan government finally did not accept the expansion.
They, they, opposed the expansion of the Barcelona Airport, and we are, you know, very cautiously optimistic in the sense that I think, and we think that the expansion of the Barcelona Airport is so important. It, it's, I would say, it's a capital issue. It's a fundamental issue concerning the future competitiveness of the Catalan and the Spanish economy, but also for the mobility of the Catalan citizens. I think that these very strong factors, these very strong arguments could, in the future, make the Catalan government accept and support the project. It's not the case at present.
As a final comment, let me say that in the coming weeks, maybe after the August vacation, there will be an institutional, let's say, a table, an institutional discussion between the Catalan government and the Spanish government, which comes from a budgetary agreement between the Socialist Party and ERC, which is the party that now or whose. In other words, the president, the Catalan president, the president of the Generalitat de Catalunya, belongs to this party, ERC. It's there's again an agreement between these two parties, whereby they commit to discuss technically again the potential enlargement of the Barcelona Airport. I think that the that Aena, of course, will support the project.
The Spanish government, I can confirm that will support the project. It's all in the hands of the Catalan government, who let's be confident that can change its mind.
Okay. With regard to the commercial revenue per passenger target, you are right. Looking at the current performance, plus the pipeline of improvements that could come up of the, of the recent contract awards and, the 2026 target seems a little bit humble. I fully agree. I think that what we don't want to do is to update you or anyone on the business plan piecemeal. We are planning to, after the summer, to, at some point in time, to have a session and to update our views on the, on the plan. Because, as I mentioned before, there are some other relevant financial objectives that are likely to be reached earlier than expected. Definitely we have to do that.
In the meantime, we don't want to, let's say, share, information piecemeal. I agree with you, the target seems to be now, probably, too cozy.
Okay, that makes sense. Yeah, thanks. Thanks for your answers.
Thank you. Our next question comes on line from Martin Wachtel from Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.
Yes, good afternoon, thank you for taking my questions. First one, I wanted to follow up on operating expenses. You mentioned in your presentation that OpEx is up 12%, I think, versus 2019 in H1. Going forward, should we expect this cost inflation to accelerate? Because there are perhaps still some contracts with external suppliers that need to be reset, to reflect the, let's say, the new reality. Conversely, should perhaps cost inflation come down? Because when we look at inflation, the CPI number in Spain right now is something like +2%, year -on -year, and it was at some point +11%. Inflation in Spain has come down significantly.
If you could perhaps indicate what would be your expectations for the next 12 months, and perhaps not in terms of specific numbers, but in terms of direction of travel? Thank you.
Well, you are right. The inflation readings are more modest now. On the other hand, I have to say in our in the industries or the services that are providing us such as security or maintenance or there is somehow some accumulation of salary increases and pay rises that probably are still to be deployed by the suppliers in future tenders. We have ahead of us in the coming months, a very important one, the security services tender, which is a huge contract, and we need to see how this plays out. We are conducting the process in a way that hopefully we will manage to, let's say, match their expectations without going too far.
We have engaged in a sort of competitive dialogue, which is a completely new approach by, for us. There are forces playing in both ways. Let me tell you, I hope, and I believe it is realistic to expect these double digit growth rates to be part of the past shortly. We have to work hard, and through the tenders, to be able to mitigate the trends. This is the reason why all the time I come back, rather than committing to say, "In 2023, this is going to be up for by X or Y," I come back to my, let's say, mantra, which is what we believe is the art of the possible.
What we believe is achievable, but, demanding, obviously, never easy. Goal is to deliver 55% of EBITDA margin sustainably under the DORA II conditions. In DORA III, we will see, because as I said before, I hope there will be a number of cards that will be reshuffled, and hopefully that will give us, that will open a new opportunity to increase the margins over that level. In the DORA II, the sum up, the end game, the bottom line of everything I can tell you is 55% EBITDA margin.
Well, thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Graham Hunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.
Thanks. Maybe just a couple. Firstly, on the Brazilian acquisitions, could you just talk a little bit about how that fits into that margin target, and maybe just in terms of, how we should be thinking about that? I assume it's captured, but is it accretive or dilutive? Coming back to the security tender, you mentioned obviously that you're expecting that by year-end. Are you seeing anything in the process so far that gives you any confidence that, you might be able to bring that in a little bit below that headline contract number? I think you mentioned EUR one and a half billion, but I assume you're targeting something a bit lower than that.
Thirdly, very quickly, you mentioned, I think a grant from the EU around the COVID recovery costs, which led you to not apply for that through the IMAA next year. Can you give any sense on the quantum of that and how you will account for it, if it is awarded? Thank you.
Can you, I didn't quite get your second question. You can make it later on if you wish, but I will try to answer the other two questions in the meantime, if that's okay.
Yeah, thanks.
Okay. With regard to the... Yeah, the 55% target is the target for Aena, let's say the Spanish network, okay? This has been always the reference when we discussed the... Well, when we said that in the past, we enjoyed margins in the region of 62%, 63%, even 64%. What we say now is that Aena will be more likely end up in 55%, unless there will be changes in conditions, as I said before, probably as a result of the DORA III, of the new DORA, okay? When looking at the international ventures, the dilution, normally there is an element of dilution. There is always a trend to see a lower consolidated percentage of margin. This is a little bit tricky. Why?
Because on one hand, you have, you normally run concessions. When you run concessions, you have two features of a concession that are dilutive. Feature number one, and that doesn't mean they are not very good businesses. They could be fantastic businesses. Feature number one is that when you are not the freeholder, you are the, just the tenant, you have to pay concession fees. You share part of your earnings. When you take away the concession fee, of course, this is an outflow. I admit that. You can say, "Well, so what?
That makes no difference. You have to take into account that when growing internationally, many times you have to let's say, obviously, you have to play the game the way it is. There are places where you only can obtain concessions. You cannot buy the freehold. The second element is that concessions are accounted under a rule that is IFRIC 12, in which you have to account for all the buildings, all the developments you make as an intangible asset, and that goes through your revenue and your costs. It's absolutely neutral to your EBITDA, but it's obviously at the time of calculating the margins, they are affected by that. Once again, accounting and accounting, impacting things.
I would say it's a bit misleading to say, well, when growing internationally, your margin is lower. Well, not necessarily. There is an element of accounting, and there is also an element, obviously, that you have to share there. If you can grow internationally by buying assets as a freeholder, that would be fantastic, but there are no many opportunities. With regard to the COVID, well, this is around EUR 40 some million from memory. I might be wrong, but I remember. I think it's north of EUR 40 million. We applied to the European Union for this grant that is absolutely, let's say, fit for purpose. This is something that we have to do. It's our duty. We have to take care of the airlines.
If we can reduce the costs that the airlines are paying for operating out of our airports, we will do it. If we have the opportunity and the completely legitimate rules and regulations to get to obtain an allowance or grant for that, we will do it. At the end of the day, the airlines will benefit from that. And it's legitimate. We will end up recovering in full the costs, but instead of being recovered from the airlines, will be recovered from the European authorities or the. That's, this is good for the airlines, and anything that is good for the airlines is good for us. Your second question was what, sorry?
Just on the security tender, what kind of, if any early indication of the levels you are seeing coming in there, any positive news you can share? Thanks.
The positive thing that there are a good number of suppliers or providers that are engaging in the competitive, let's say, what we call competitive dialogue. They are providing their views, their input, they are willing to be involved, and this is very good news. The bids that they will be submitted, will come in in a number of months. They are not yet due. It's early days.
Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Johannes Braun from Stifel Europe. Please go ahead with your question.
Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. I have two. First one would be on slide 10, where you show the revenue per passengers. I just realized that the aeronautical revenue per passengers, obviously we had that dilution in Q1, but now in Q2, we have what I think you call a concentration of revenues. Just wondering about the moving parts there. Secondly, on slide 19, you're showing the development of the Brazil operations. Was wondering why EBITDA in Brazil has come down so much in H1? That's for my two questions. Thank you.
Okay, sorry. With regard to, let me take a look at slide 10. One thing is to see the revenue per passenger going up. Different thing is to say that there is a dilution or concentration. Overall, in this semester, in this half year, we are experiencing dilution all the time. All the time. Dilution, because the revenue per passenger, I mean, aeronautical revenue per passenger, obviously, is below the actual revenue per passenger on average is below the revenue per passenger you are allowed to get. It's true, the Q2 revenue per passenger is higher than the Q1 revenue per passenger, which is good, but that doesn't mean that it is reaching the level of the allowed or approved by the regulator revenue per passenger.
To the extent that you are still below that level, we are still in the dilution mode. Dilution is something that happens very usually, well, for a number of reasons. You can imagine there are many reasons. For instance, to the extent that the smaller airports are recovering quicker than the largest airports, as the charges are lower, you will tend to get dilution. To the extent that you have, I don't know, higher load factors, and as I mentioned before, there is a significant increase in load factors, you are likely to be in dilution mode. Dilution means that, as you know well, we will have to recover that in two years' time, capitalized. This dilution or concentration is not a big deal to the extent that you can recover it, obviously.
If you are capped, as we had, we had that experience some couple of years ago or three years ago, that was not nice, but to the extent that you can recover that, is fine. Once again, the revenue per passenger going up, that doesn't mean that it's getting to the level where you move to a concentration mode rather than a dilution mode. I hope this helps. Then Nacho will answer the second question.
Thank you, Jose, and thank you for the question, Johannes. I'm sure you will recall that on the Brazilian assets owned by Aena, ANB, there was an impairment a few years ago because of COVID and the impact in construction costs, et cetera. That impairment got reduced in the first half of 2022, and has also got reduced this semester. What is happening is that basically the reversal of the impairment last year, there is a positive impact in EBITDA. In EUR was around EUR 23 million, this year has been EUR 6.6 million. That's why comparing EBITDA levels with that reversals of the impairments is basically not a like-for-like exercise. If you remove the impact of basically of this effect, EBITDA is growing. Thank you.
Thank you.
I think we have time for a couple of more questions because, frankly, we are overrunning. I'm very sorry. Maybe a couple of questions. Do we have three people in line or?
We do indeed, sir. The next question.
In that-
Comes from the line of Achal Kumar.
In that case, we will do the three of them, okay? Thank you.
Perfect. Thank you very much, sir. Our next question comes from the line of Achal Kumar from HSBC. Please go ahead with your question.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have a couple, actually. First of all, I just want to understand, I mean, going back to your comments where you mentioned that airlines have started pulling up the capacity, I mean, what's the reason for that? You know, I mean, you know, I understand that recently, I think that Spain has become the 2nd biggest hub, beating Italy. I think there is quite aggressive demand, leisure demand, which is, of course, dominating the recovery at the moment. How, why you think the airlines are starting, have started pulling capacity?
Of course, related to that, I think most of the low-cost airlines are your customers, the models they follow, of course, they sort of try to go to the airports where they get better deals or better prices. Now, if you are increasing your airport charges, do you think that could further discourage or that could cause low-cost airlines like Ryanair and all, pull further capacity away from Spain? That is my first question. Secondly, on the liquidity side, basically, you have a cash of EUR 1 billion, you have a debt maturing of EUR 2 billion in next year. Looking at the all the equation, how comfortable are you in terms of liquidity?
Do you think, would you be able to meet your target of net debt to EBITDA of 2x, while you still have about 2.9x? These are my two questions, please, if you could help.
Okay. With regard to the first question, maybe pulling capacity is not the right expression. Let me try to make it more clear. Some of the airlines, in particular, and you can guess, who they are, were planning to increase capacity in the summer very, very aggressively, following the trend of recent months. Now they are scaling that back. It's not that they are pulling capacity that they already, let's say, put in place. They are being heading for growth, but a much more modest growth. The reasons for that, obviously, are something that we can only guess, okay? We can only guess.
You say the Spanish market is very attractive indeed, but just today, you can read in the press in Spain, headlines today or yesterday, I don't remember, about a couple of airlines, relevant airlines here. One of them has increased the ticket prices over the last year by 22%. The other one, by more than that. I think from memory, more than 30%. You can put two and two together, and rightly so. I have nothing against them, obviously, taking care of their profitability.
On, in some cases, we know that some airlines operating out of the U.K., for instance, are thinking that they may face difficulties to cover some of their commitments, the original commitments, with Spain and probably with other countries for sure, because they are not going to get the aircraft that they expected. Some days ago, one of these airlines was very clearly making the point that they are scaling back or delaying or adjusting the schedule of delivery of aircraft. They said that very clearly. In some cases, we know that some airlines are concerned at some of their origin airports to be facing over the summer some disruptions, and they are concerned that if they try to bite more than they can chew, they can end up in cancellations, obviously cancellation mean costs, means costs.
There is a whole host and a variety of reasons that, frankly, I'm not, I cannot speak for them. I can only share with you what we are witnessing. Is this that they don't like the Spanish market? They love it. Is this that they don't feel that the demand here is robust? Definitely. Is this that they are not going to grow? They are going to grow, but six, three months ago, they were planning to grow even more. They are just moving their, let's say, their chess pieces around to make the most out of this situation, and rightly so. They are now probably trying to avoid incurring costs that they can do without, focusing on improving the yield. That doesn't mean that the market is going backwards.
This is, that doesn't mean that we don't see the recovery ahead of us, but probably the growth that we have seen over the last months is likely to be more modest over the summer, and who knows, in the winter. By no means, I am suggesting that they are not willing to serve the Spanish market and the demand here. The demand here is amazing. Okay? With regard to liquidity, we are fine with the maturities as a combination of three things, four things. First of all, liquidity, we have, we hold today, the new credit line, the new RCF that we just signed, and is entirely unused, EUR 2 billion. Thirdly, very importantly, our capacity to generate cash flows.
Don't forget that we will be generating cash flows over the coming months, in a very, very healthy way. Finally, I can say that we are very close to be, well, I don't, I don't mean issuing bonds, but we are very close to be in the market with a capital market platform and with a prospectus. We are very, very close to do that. That doesn't mean that we are going to issue any, and I'm not committing at all, but to have one more tool at our disposal, and we are literally weeks away from that.
Sorry, following up on the first question, I mean, as I asked, that, you know, do you think, I mean, if you, if you are increasing airport charges, do you think that could discourage the, some of key low-cost airlines, some of key customers? Are you hearing some kind of arguments or some kind of discussion, are you having some kind of discussion with the airlines wherein, you know, airlines are asking for, I mean, you know, about limiting the capacity in case there is an increase in airport charges?
Definitely, the discussions around airport charges are a staple of our business. Of course, the airlines will always complain about this. First of all, we are still the most efficient in the leisure market, we are definitely the most attractive operator. I don't think this 4% increase is going to be a reason to walk away, but I don't think so. The other way around. Take a look at the key low-cost carriers operating in Spain. They are all willing to grow, and adding capacity. Once again, they are not pulling capacity. They simply are scaling down a bit their ambitions of three, four months ago. This is not going backwards. This is going forward at a slower pace than they originally expected.
Finally, to, let's say, wrap up, how on earth they can complain about a 4% increase in charges when their tickets are going up, their ticket prices are going up by 20%, 30%, and 40% in some cases? Simply, they are doing their job by complaining. They complain everywhere, obviously, and rightly so. Once again, I'm not critiquing that. Secondly, they are trying to take advantage of the current circumstances to restore their profitability because they went through a very difficult time, and we have to recognize it. Sorry, we have to rush up because we are running out of time, big time. Can we make the last two questions, Andrew and José, I believe. José Anthony, José Luis.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Lobbenberg from Barclays. Please go ahead with your question.
Hiya. Can I just ask quickly to, I thought on the MAG accounting, what you said, given the new MAGs and how they're gonna be flatlined across the life of the MAG. Just to understand, that means we're going to have a big accounting discrepancy in the opening years of it from next year, and that your reported revenues will be way ahead of actual cash flows. Is that right? Then that will taper down, so your reported profitability will be flattered for the opening years of the new MAG contract. Second question: Madrid and Barcelona have lagged the recovery. Now they start to catch up. Does that mean anything structurally for the profitability of the business? I know originally when we...
you know, when you came to market, the Madrid and Barcelona had high margins compared to the system, but I, I suspect the profitability at the, at the Palmas and Málagas and Alicantes is pretty bloody impressive as well. Is there anything structurally from the, the catch-up that we see now of Madrid and Barcelona for your overall economics and your margins?
Okay. Well, with regard to the MAG accounting, you are absolutely right. The MAG accounting will imply that, if you think in terms of the duty-free contract, you have MAGs that are growing year-on-year for the coming 12 years, accounting-wise, you have, well, let me say, to the extent that you are operating under MAG, obviously, if the contracts are operating in variable conditions, or fee, or royalty, that will be different, completely different. To the extent that they are under MAG, they are not exceeding the MAG level, they will be accounted for with the same revenue every second, every minute, every day, every year. What we will need to do, and we will do, is clearly to provide information.
There will be a discrepancy between the accounting revenue and the cash flow. Definitely, definitely. I, I know this sounds difficult to understand, but this is the way IFRS 16 is forcing us to account for this rent. There is nothing we can do about it. We have been fighting and discussing and arguing with regulators, with auditors. No way around. But we will be transparent. We will provide all the information needed on both the underlying revenues, the variable elements of the revenue, the sales, something we didn't do in the past, and on the cash flows. With regard to... Yeah, there is an element of profitability in Madrid and Barcelona that will be flowing through the whole business. Yeah, definitely. That's true.
All that is contemplated in the 55%, Andrew, to be perfectly honest. All of that is contemplated in the 55%.
Okay, cool. Thank you.
I'm not suggesting this will change the objective. Okay, last question for José Manuel. Sorry, this time I get it right, José Manuel Arroyo.
It's from José Arroyo from Santander. Please go ahead with your question.
Yeah.
Thank you, gentlemen. three quick questions, if I may. Can you give us an update on the new Brazilian airports? The concession fee has been paid. When will you start operating the 11 airports? If you can update us on that? Second question is on the solar PV plan. We can even see ourselves that there is a giant plant under construction in Madrid, 120 megawatts. Does that accelerate the strategy, or does the 2030 timeline still hold? I think that's the latest update you gave us. Lastly, on the private security contract, if I'm right, you are estimating a EUR 1.5 billion cost over five years. That mechanically implies, if I'm right, EUR 600 million a year.
If I looked at the right cost item in the P&L, security for Aena is today EUR 200 million. Am I right to look at this contract in this way, that you are already expecting a 50% increase in private security? Thank you.
Okay, I will start with. I will answer on the Brazilian question and the security question, and I'm not sure we'll deal with the solar plant question. We will be taking over the operation in Brazil over the summer, starting with the smaller airports in, I think it's August, and then the largest airport in September. I think Congonhas in September will be in our hands, fully operated by us. In the meantime, there is a sort of shadowing period where we work together with the, with the current operator in Infraero. With regard to the security, no, the answer is no.
First of all, because the answer is no, because first of all, this is the starting point, and then we will see what the final bids are, and secondly, because this is not like for like. The business is introducing an element of new equipment and new features over the coming years that will require higher costs to operate them. We can provide this information separately to you and the rest of the analysts, so you can understand what we are talking about. Once again, sorry to be so, let's say, insistent on that. Everything will end up in the 55% bottom line margin. We will make sure to provide you more color about how to compare the existing services, the scope of services, and the new scope of services.
Secondly, it is not the first time, it won't be the last, when we end up with bids below the, let's say, the original tender price.
Thank you, José. José Manuel, this is Nacho speaking. I think in a few words, the update, sorry, would be that in 2025, would be around 36% of energy being produced by the solar project at Aena. That's very similar to the last information that I think we shared with you. And with respect to the 100%, late 20s, early 30s. No big deviation, just perhaps more specific in the role for the 2025. Thank you.
I think we have to come to an end. Thank you very much, everyone, for joining us today. If we don't speak before that I believe will be the case, have a good summer break, and see you back in the... after the break, after the summer. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.