Amadeus IT Group, S.A. (BME:AMS)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 9, 2023

Operator

Welcome to the Amadeus first quarter 2022 presentation webcast. The management of Amadeus will run you through the presentation, which will be followed by a question and answer session. You can ask a question on the phone by dialing * 11 on your telephone keypad at any moment during the presentation. I am now pleased to hand over to you, Mr. Luis Maroto, President and CEO of Amadeus. Please, sir, go ahead.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Good afternoon. Welcome to our first quarter results presentation. Thank you very much for joining us today. Now, I will start, as usual, with an overview of our most important developments in the quarter until we elaborate the key financial aspects. Let's start with slide 4, please, for an overview of our performance over the period. In the first quarter of the year, the airline industry continued to make progress. Global air traffic further recovered. Capacity and load factors continued to increase. Global domestic air traffic approached 2019 levels, supported by travel policy loosening in China. Global international traffic also improved, although more modestly than domestic traffic, led by the Asia-Pacific region. In this context, Amadeus financial performance continued to strengthen. Group revenue increased by 43% over prior year. EBITDA grew 72%. Adjusted profit expanded by 188%.

This positive development was supported by the strong evolution in air distribution and IT and hospitality and other. Our free cash flow amounted to EUR 273 million, supporting net financial debt of EUR 2 billion at the end of the quarter, which represented 1.1 times last twelve-month EBITDA. As we advance, we have remained highly focused on our R&D efforts over the quarter to support future growth levers, including the evolution of our hospitality platform, our partnership with Microsoft, and our shift to the cloud, the implementation projects of new customers across our businesses, NDC-related solutions and capabilities, including our next-generation airline retail offering under the Offers and Orders initiative, and portfolio enhancement and expansion, including Airline IT digitalization and enhanced shopping and retailing, and evolution of our portfolio for travel sellers, airports, and in payments.

Please turn to slide 5 for an overview by segment, starting with air distribution. During the first quarter of this year, we signed 20 new contracts for renewals of distribution agreements. We continue to advance with our NDC strategy. We sign agreements for NDC content with airlines such as Air Canada, Virgin Atlantic, and SAS, as well as with distributors such as Certicket and Ávoris Corporación Empresarial. American Express Global Business Travel will pilot Air France-KLM NDC content through the Amadeus Travel Platform. We continue expanding our portfolio of corporate customers with several signatures for Cytric Easy during the quarter. Review our volumes evolution in the first quarter. Amadeus bookings were 32.8% higher in the first quarter of 2022.

Please note that given the recovery experience by the travel industry throughout 2022, 2023's booking growth rates versus last year will slow down in the coming quarters. Our booking performance in the first quarter was minus 25% relative to the bookings in the first quarter of 2019, outperforming the industry supported by market share gains are representing a 3.2 percentage points improvement over the four quarters' performance. Our best performing region was North America. Central Eastern Europe and Asia Pac were the regions reporting the highest growth booking performance improvements over prior quarters. Into April and May, we continue to see an improvement in our bookings evolution. Please turn to slide 6 to review Air IT Solutions. In Airline IT, Etihad Airways and ITA Airways migrated to Altéa during the quarter, implementing the full Altéa suite.

In the case of ITA, the carrier also implemented our Digital Experience Suite, along with other Amadeus merchandising, NDC and data solutions. In April, Hawaiian Airlines also migrated to Altéa. There are several upselling wins in the quarter with Southwest Airlines, Spirit Airlines, SAS, EgyptAir, Nile Air, and Fiji Airways. In Airport IT, we continue to expand our reach through new agreements with several players, including Hamburg, Christchurch, and Western Sydney International Airports and with ground handler, uncertain. To review our volumes performance in the quarter, Amadeus PBs were 55% higher in the first quarter of this year than in the same period of last year, driven by continued progress in the travel industry and new customer implementations. Please note that given the recovery experience by the travel industry throughout 2022, 2023, PBs' growth rates versus 2022 will slow down in the coming quarters.

Relative to the first quarter of 2019, Amadeus PBs were -6% versus that year, the first quarter, up 9.5 percentage points improvement over past quarters performance. Organic growth was -7.7 relative to the first quarter of 2019, advancing notably versus prior quarters, supported by enhanced performance of Altéa and most notably Navitaire, 12.4 points quarter-over-quarter organic performance improvement. North America continued to be our best performing region. Asia-Pac reported a notable growth versus 2019 improvement in the first quarter relative to prior quarter and represented 32% of Amadeus PBs, our largest year, largest region in terms of PBs. Into April and May, based on the most recent data that we have, our organic PB performance versus 2019 has continued to progress. Please turn to slide seven for an update on our hospitality segment.

First quarter of the year, our hospitality and other solutions revenue was 31% higher than revenue in the first quarter of 2022. Both hospitality, which generates the majority of the revenues in the segment, and payments delivered strong growth versus the first quarter of 2022, supported by new customer implementations and volume expansions. We saw continued interest from customers across our hospitality portfolio during the first quarter of this year. With this, I will now pass on to Till for further details on our financial performance in the quarter.

Till Streichert
CFO, Amadeus IT Group

Thank you, Luis. Hello, everyone. Please turn to slide 9 to review our revenue performance in the period. In the first quarter of 2023, our group revenue grew 43% versus Q1 2022, supported by revenue growth across our segments. In air distribution, revenue in the quarter was 52.2% above 2022, primarily driven by the bookings evolution Luis described and by a revenue per booking, which was 14.6% higher than in Q1 2022, driven by a lower weight of local bookings in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, and pricing effects, including impacts from inflation and yearly price adjustments.

With regards to Air IT Solutions, revenue in the quarter was 35.7% higher than in Q1 2022, driven by the PB volumes evolution, coupled with a 12.5% lower revenue per PB. The decrease in the revenue per PB in the quarter was expected and was fundamentally driven by a proportion of Air IT revenues not linked to PBs growing healthily, but at a softer growth rate than PBs, more than offsetting positive pricing impacts from inflationary or price adjustments and from upselling of incremental solutions. To briefly recap on the implementation front, in line with plan, as of now, we've implemented Etihad Airways, ITA Airways, and Hawaiian Airlines, and continue working to implement Allegiant and Bamboo Airways during this year, also in line with plan.

As we said in February, this should bring us an approximate incremental 45 to 55 million Passengers Boarded in 2023, resulting from the 2022 and 2023 migrations. Let me remind you that this is off a 2022 PB base reduced by the Russian carrier demigrations, which in 2022 brought us 25 million Passengers Boarded. Regarding Hospitality and other solutions, revenue in the first quarter was 31.3% above Q1 2022, driven by strong performances of both Hospitality and payments on the back of new customer implementations and volume expansion. At Hospitality, its three main revenue lines reported double-digit growth rates in the quarter versus Q1 2022. Within Hospitality IT growth was mainly driven by sales and event management, service optimization, and Amadeus CRS revenues, supported by new customer implementations and higher reservation volumes.

Media and distribution revenues continued to advance, backed by an increase in media transactions and bookings, and business intelligence also progressed, driven by new customer implementations. Please now turn to slide 10 for a review of our EBITDA evolution. In the first quarter of 2023, our EBITDA amounted to EUR 510 million, 72.3% higher than in 2022. EBITDA margin expanded by 6.6 percentage points to 38.9%. The EBITDA performance resulted from the revenue evolution explained before, a higher cost of revenue, and an increase in our combined personnel and other operating expenses cost lines.

Cost of revenue grew by 59.7% in the quarter versus the same quarter of 2022, resulting from volume expansion across our segments, particularly in air distribution, in our media and distribution hospitality businesses, and in the B2B Wallet payments business. Cost of revenue was also impacted by several factors, including customer, country, and business mixes. Our P&L fixed costs in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter last year were 14% higher. This cost evolution resulted from, 1, increased resources, particularly in our development activity to support our R&D investment, as Luis has described, coupled with a higher unitary cost resulting from our global salary increase. 2, growth in non-personnel related spend, like travel and training, among others, driven by the business expansion relative to prior year.

3, higher transaction processing cost caused by the volume expansion and our shift to the cloud. Let me remind you what we said in February. Our P&L fixed cost growth in 2023 should range between 10%-14% over 2022, excluding the EUR 51.2 million government grant we received in 2022. Additionally, this cost growth in 2023 from a quarterly perspective will be higher in the first half of the year and slower in the second half. Please bear in mind that next quarter, when we report our figures, we will be comparing against the cost and EBITDA base, which benefited from the government grant received in Q2 2022. We will show you our performance with and without this non-recurring effect.

To review the evolution below the EBITDA line briefly, in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 2022, D&A expense decreased slightly by 1.1% with a lower depreciation expense from a reduction in hardware investment, largely driven by our shift to the cloud, offsetting higher amortization expense from internally developed assets. Net financial expense also declined in the period by 53.1%, driven by an increase in financial income and exchange gains, and a reduction in other financial expenses. Interest expense was 5.8% higher, caused by a higher average cost of debt relative to last year, despite a lower gross debt. Income taxes increased by 202% in the quarter versus the same quarter of prior year, driven by higher taxable income.

As a result of these effects, adjusted profit grew by almost 188% in the first quarter versus 2022. Please turn to page 11 to review our R&D investment and CapEx. R&D investment grew by 26.4% in the quarter versus 2022. As Luis has described, we are investing for the future and focusing on several strategic areas and new customer implementations. In the first quarter of 2023, our CapEx increased by EUR 31 million, or 26.7% compared to the same quarter in 2022, mainly driven by higher capitalized R&D investment and represented 11.4% of revenue. Please turn to slide 12 for a review of our free cash flow and leverage.

With regards to free cash flow, we generated EUR 273 million in the first quarter, which is 117% higher than the same quarter of last year. Excluding implementation costs paid in the first quarter of 2022 of almost EUR 18 million, growth in the quarter was 90.2%. This progress is fundamentally explained by our EBITDA evolution, by a change in working capital outflow as expected, and higher CapEx and taxes. Free cash flow generation in the quarter supported our net debt evolution. Net debt amounted to EUR 2.026 billion at the end of March, with a leverage amounting to 1.1 times net debt to EBITDA.

For our expected Q2 2023 free cash flow evolution, please take into account, as I mentioned before, we have a non-recurring benefit in the base from the EUR 51 million government grant we received one year ago. As we advanced in February, cash taxes in 2023 are going to have a higher impact in our free cash flow generation than in 2022. This is as expected, and it does not change our free cash flow outlook for 2023. With this, I pass back to Luis for final remarks.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Thanks, Till. We have started the year with a good set of numbers, a strong operational performance across all our businesses, from air distribution, airport IT, and airline IT to hospitality distribution and IT as well as payments. We are looking forward to the rest of the year to continue strengthening our financial performance and to advancing in all our business and technology strategies to position ourselves strongly to capture future growth opportunities. With this, we have finished the presentation and are ready to take any question you may have.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press * 11 on your telephone keypad. Thank you. The first question comes from Alex Irving from Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Alex Irving
Senior Analyst, European Transport, Bernstein

Good afternoon. 3 if I may, please. First, following American Airlines' removal of content from EDIFACT at the beginning of April, how has your booking flow changed in North America after that? What are you hearing from North American agents in terms of demand? Second, about outsourcing opportunities. We're seeing more Altéa customers coming close to non-Altéa customers. I'm particularly thinking about the formation of IAG Group and the Iberia-Aer Lingus merger. Does that meaningfully improve your ability to add new airlines to the Altéa platform? Third, we're hearing from airlines that corporate travel is coming back quite slowly, especially at large corporate and that European corporate volumes are in particular a little bit soft. Where is your TMC booking flow back to relative to 2019, please? Thank you.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

I am very sorry, but we really struggle to hear you. I don't know if the problem is on our side or is general, but we couldn't hear you. If you don't mind, I mean, we can come back to you as we improve the line or the connectivity. You can repeat the question. I mean, I understood the first one was about American Airlines.

Alex Irving
Senior Analyst, European Transport, Bernstein

Maybe let me try this. Is this any better?

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Okay. Now, now it's... Yes. Yes.

Alex Irving
Senior Analyst, European Transport, Bernstein

All right. Thank you. Apologies. I'll repeat. First question is around the North American booking flow since April and the removal of American's content from EDIFACT or 46 of American's content from EDIFACT. Do you see any meaningful changes to North American booking flow? Second question is around outsourcing opportunities, please. We're seeing more Altéa customers coming close to non-Altéa customers, and I'm particularly thinking about the formation of IAG Group and the Iberia-Air Europa merger. Does that meaningfully improve your ability to add new airlines to the Altéa platform? Third question is on corporate travel. We're hearing that large corporate volumes and European corporate volumes in particular, are coming back quite slowly. Where is your TMC booking flow back to relative to 2019 levels, please?

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Okay. Look, let me start with American Airlines. I mean, look, American Airlines follow their own strategy as any other airline. Of course, we have an agreement, as you know, to really manage NDC bookings and EDIFACT bookings. Again, as always, trying to really prove our value and trying to really support American Airlines in whatever they try to do. As you know, some airlines have different strategies around the world. What is important for us is to really have a solution and keep the platform attractive enough for all the airlines and the travel agencies to be part of that. Saying that, there will be movements.

In this case, American Airlines, as you know, has made a number of announcements about the way they plan to really make their strategy with regards to NDC. Other airlines are taking a different approach. Again, we are trying to really be there and do our best to really keep the relevance of what we offer to both airlines and travel agencies. I mean, much more than that, I think it's difficult to really say. With regards to Altéa opportunities, of course, there are always opportunities. You have seen the number of airlines we have bring to our platform. This is an ongoing matter. There are some mergers happening or some acquisitions.

In the majority of the cases, due to our presence, we feel it's more an opportunity to bring airlines if they are not part of the platform. Of course, our market share is high overall, both for Altéa and for Navitaire. We keep working. I mean, again, in this case, it's very difficult to really commit about the specific matters. We keep ongoing work. We keep convincing our customers both to really come to Altéa and to the platform, as well as upselling. We have announced a number of airlines that have taken additional functionalities. Of course, when we bring customers to Altéa, we try to really cover the full spectrum of our solutions and not the pure PSS that was the beginning of our platform.

Yes, opportunities are still there. Yes, I mean, as the airlines go through different, you know, corporate operations, hopefully part of that could represent additional volumes to us. In corporate travel, yes, we see a recovery, definitely. I mean, leisure has been well advanced, and this is part of the reason, as you see, why in the non-GDS, especially when we talk about Navitaire, has been, you know, growing faster and recovering faster than what we have seen with the full service carriers. Definitely, definitely true that the leisure has recovered much faster and more advanced than business travel or corporate travel. We also see a recovery of corporate travel.

It's still behind the rest, but within the pure GDS, the growth of corporate travel has been there, and reaching closer figures to the 2019 than in previous quarters. Okay. Overall, TMCs are also recovering as the industry recovers and the GDS recover. It's a fact also that low-cost carriers and leisure has been clearly moving well ahead of corporate in the last years, and it's still the case.

Alex Irving
Senior Analyst, European Transport, Bernstein

Thank you.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Go ahead.

Till Streichert
CFO, Amadeus IT Group

If I may add just in terms of the mix of the segment, in actual fact, we have reached, in terms of the TMC bookings, the same mix within the GDS as we had actually in 2019. It is approximately, on the 30%, which is a good indicator that actually within the GDS, there was obviously also on the corporate booking side, strong demand.

Alex Irving
Senior Analyst, European Transport, Bernstein

Excellent. Thanks for the additional color.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Adam Wood from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Adam Wood
Senior Analyst, European Technology/Software, Morgan Stanley

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. maybe just first of all, I guess on the distribution side, the market's recovered enough to maybe have a more meaningful conversation about market shares. I think one of the competitors has said that they think they're taking share. I wonder if you could just comment on what you see around market share shifts on distribution, whether there are regional variations. Maybe just could you help us understand how important NDC is to those conversations with agents? Is it the factor today, or is it still just one of the multiple factors that agents look at when they're deciding? Then maybe secondly, on the Air IT side, you've mentioned the cross-selling and upselling as a driver of PB, price growth.

It's very difficult for us to factor in what's going on underneath the surface in there. Could you help us a little bit with maybe an idea of the % improvements you've seen on average over the last few years through that upselling movement? Thank you.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Hi, Adam. Thanks for the question. Let me take the first two. I mean, in terms of market share, I mean, again, we are pleased with the evolution of our performance. Again, it's still difficult to compare every single month because you have many impacts at one point when the growth will be lower. Hopefully, all these impacts of mix and generation will not be there. If you see the trend of the company in the last years, we are very pleased with our underlying performance. Of course, again, there are always mixes here and there, different growth rates of different areas, mix of customers that can play in favor or against that. Overall, we are very pleased with evolution. We feel we have the capabilities to keep improving.

I mean, with that, I'm not saying we are going to improve every single month, every single market, but overall the trend has been extremely positive, and we feel will be positive in the future. With regards to NDC, yes, we expect an increase. Still the volumes are low, but we expect an increase in the next couple of years. It's part of the discussions with travel agencies. It's part of our discussions with airlines. As you have seen in many of the contracts we have signed, NDC is part of that, and we are working to really make that a seamless and a good reality. It will still take, in my view, some time until this is a full implemented process.

Some airlines are more advanced than others and have more interest than others, and some travel agencies are the same. Overall, we are moving in the right direction. We expect this year to be higher than 2022. I believe 2024 will be a year where the volumes could start playing, I would say, a relevant size as a percentage of the total, because still today they are small. Overall things are moving in the right track, with time it will represent a significant part of our total volumes. With regards to L&IT and upselling.

Till Streichert
CFO, Amadeus IT Group

On the upselling side, we've continued to make further progress and also in our evolution in terms of the unitary, albeit negative, as I've highlighted, which again is a function of the non-transactional revenue element within our average revenue per PB. We've made reasonable progress on the upselling side and therefore I would say this has been clearly a positive in the evolution. However, in terms of opportunity, again, as we've said also before, in terms of the different additional modules, functionalities that we've got, be it revenue accounting, be it the Altéa NDC side, customer experience, these are all elements where we've got further runway and a significant opportunity to also upsell further to our customer base.

Operator

Perfect. Thank you for the color. I appreciate it. Thank you. The next question comes from Sven Merkt from Barclays. Please go ahead.

Sven Merkt
Analyst and Assistant Vice President, Equity Research, Barclays

Great. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of questions on the recovery in bookings in Western Europe. This has now been broadly around the same level compared to 2019 since the second quarter last year. Can you comment how bookings have recovered relative to the capacity of your clients? What I want to understand essentially is, has there been more disintermediation or is it just mix effects with more capacity moving to low-cost carriers? The second part of the question is just on the outlook for further recovery in bookings in Western Europe. Thank you.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

I mean, look, when we take out, you know, migrations and effects, because of course you have all kind of effects with migrations of ITA and other customers. I mean, the main effect has been, as you mentioned, the fastest growth of low-cost carriers. Some of the low-cost carriers and worldwide, but including Western Europe, are well ahead 2019 already, which is not the case of the full service carriers. When we see the evolution that has happened, you know, of movements per quarter, and we see the organic growth of Altéa, I mean, the evolution has been quite similar in terms of improvement quarter versus quarter.

Of course, in many cases, as you know well, figures have been impacted by, you know, by different timing of holidays. You have strikes that have happened, you have disruptions in some parts of Europe that have impacted the volumes overall. But I will say the biggest part of the difference when you compare one quarter to the other, and we already reported, you know, the Navitaire huge increase, excluding migrations, and we have not seen at all an increase of the difference, you know, within the Altéa, versus what we see in our booking volume. That was the first part of the question with regards to Europe.

Operator

European volumes and American volumes.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Look, when we talk about outlook, I mean, again, look what we, what I can share is what I mentioned in my, you know, opening presentation, is that what we see. It's always difficult to really isolate all the effects. That's why, look, with PBs it's more simple because it's the people flying, even if you also have, you know, different impacts on seasonality. With the bookings, you have all kind of effects, that are happening as we speak.

What we have seen when we try to accumulate figures and exclude in our analysis some of these effects, is that the improvement keeps going, and that in April, May, we have seen similar improvements that we have seen from the first quarter to the last quarter of last year. We just have, you know, the month of April and the first days of May, at least we see this evolution on the positive trend, okay? With some caveats, because again, we don't know how things may evolve with the current economic environment. Things will evolve with the capacity. The load factors are still extremely high, and the first are high.

We need to see how, especially after all the disruption that happened last summer, how the airlines are going to face, you know, the demand for the summer season. So far, the improvement keeps going both for our PBs and our bookings at an overall basis, okay? Including Western Europe, yeah.

Sven Merkt
Analyst and Assistant Vice President, Equity Research, Barclays

Great. Thank you for the details.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Toby Ogg from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Toby Ogg
Research Analyst and VP, EMEA Software and IT Services, JPMorgan

Yes. Hi. Thanks for taking the question. Perhaps just on the pricing in GDS. Clearly very favorable pricing dynamic in the quarter. Your 15% growth in the revenue per booking number, and you called out different drivers of this across pricing adjustments and booking mix. Could you just help us disaggregate the different components there in terms of the contribution to that pricing growth? Just when thinking about the remainder of the year, is that double-digit level of growth in pricing sustainable, or should we expect that to moderate as we move through the year? Thank you.

Till Streichert
CFO, Amadeus IT Group

Sure. Look, let me just start off first. We are comparing obviously against prior quarter, prior year quarter, which was a quarter where we had a spike of local bookings due to Omicron. Just remember that, please. This obviously has changed in terms of the mix recovery overall. We did have, obviously, a positive impact, of course, from our price increases that we have applied. We had a slight positive impact from foreign exchange rate. Again, the biggest and most important driver was, in essence, kind of the booking and customer mix eventually, which created... Again, this is back to kind of 2019 levels in terms of booking mix. Actually almost a bit stronger by now.

This has resulted into this, 14.6% growth. Now, for the remainder of the year, as we are also moving off the base comparison of Q1 last year, which was suppressed, as I said, of course, I do expect, while revenue per booking growth shall stay positive, I do expect it to moderate a bit.

Toby Ogg
Research Analyst and VP, EMEA Software and IT Services, JPMorgan

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Michael Briest from UBS. Please go ahead.

Michael Briest
Equity Research Analyst, UBS

Yes, good afternoon. Just continuing on the theme of distribution, I guess, for the last four quarters, there hasn't been a lot of progress versus the 2019 base, whereas we've seen good traction in Air IT. You're now flagging that Passengers Boarded growth might moderate a little going forward. Would you expect within your guidance for this year, that the gap on distribution will narrow and the growth rates will be stronger than in Air IT Passengers Boarded? A follow-up on pricing on distribution. Presumably, when you negotiate renewals or new deals, there's the discussion around NDC. There's also the discussion around volumes. If airlines are only bringing you, for argument's sake, three-quarters of the bookings, they did in 2019 or whenever you last signed with them, would you expect a higher unit fee?

Is that part of the negotiation that might be driving the better pricing, that we observed today? Thanks.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

I mean, look, it's difficult to project, you know, how volumes will evolve and bookings. It is clear that still there is some, you know, international traffic that should be coming. Again, domestic, as you know, has been very strong. China has been very strong, in terms of the recovery, of course, coming from a low base. When we think about PBs, again, we need to consider 3 main factors that I mentioned before. One is the growth of low-cost carriers. Again, this will depend, how leisure versus corporate is going to evolve. It's true that, if you see the last quarters, the growth has been very strong, I mean, in some of the low-cost carriers around the world.

The second piece is all the migrations, and of course, these migrations will keep having an impact in terms of growth in the coming months versus the GDS. As we keep migrating customers, we have just migrated Hawaiian, but the impact of the previous customers that we had ITA until they... I mean, until next year, will have a positive impact, and then the organic growth. As I mentioned before, the gap between the pure organic growth of Altéa and the bookings has not increased by again, the other two factors have increased. Look, in theory, part of that, but again, it depends how low-cost carriers keep growing around the world.

We feel that as Asia comes back, where you have, you know, a lot of international traffic, and there's still some way to go. The fact of business travel versus leisure, it will depend a little bit on how the economy evolves in the coming months. Naturally, there could be a further growth of the GDS versus the pure organic PBs. Again, look, the You need to consider the mix of the three factors which are difficult to predict again. We have our own estimations, I will say, look, by all means, PBs this year will recover faster than bookings because of the factors that I mentioned to you.

We are talking about our internal PBs, not about the industry where you need to consider the China domestic effect, which is not part of our numbers. In terms of negotiations, well, negotiations are never easy. Of course, we try to do our best. There is no general statement. You have seen at the end in the figures of the GDS. Of course, we try to really manage negotiations in a way that we keep the benefit of our platform, we keep the benefit of the value that we are adding. At the end, look, it's an annual negotiation with some customers. We are in better positions than with others, which is natural.

Overall, as you have seen, our blended, you know, booking fee has improved, and this will be our objective moving forward. Again, yes, I mean, part of the debate has to do with the volume evolution, but hopefully the volume evolution will recover compared to 2019 at one point.

Operator

Okay. Thanks very much. Thank you. The next question comes from Charlie Brennan from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Charlie Brennan
SVP, Equity Research, Jefferies

Thanks. I've got two questions, if I can. Firstly, just on the GDS bookings, we've already had a number of questions here, but can I just simplify the debate down to your expectations for the recovery going forwards? I think you'd previously anticipated getting back to 2019 volumes at some stage through 2024. Does that still feel like a plausible scenario? Given the pace of recovery, are you now thinking that's a 2025 issue, or beyond? Secondly, you spoke about the investments in the future. I was reading the transcript of Sabre the other day. They spoke about having 70% of their volumes now on or compute power now on Google, and the cost of compute coming down by 65%.

Where are you with the transition to Microsoft? Is there any competitive pressure for you to accelerate the timeline of completion from 2026 to something earlier than that? Thank you.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Look, in terms of bookings, I mean, we are not providing a specific guidance about, you know, the coming years, we have provided you this guidance for this year. As I mentioned to you, I mean, we are assuming a further recovery during this year. Definitely true. We are not assuming we will reach this year, 2019 figures. Again, I mean, due to the ongoing recovery, hopefully this will keep going, we should be able to really, you know, have good figures for this year. With regards to next year, we will try to really work on that and provide you with the right information at the right moment. Again, there are a lot of sources outside that are talking about that.

I mean, in terms of recovery of business travel, some people are thinking more pure business travel recovery of 2025. There are some other people thinking about the following year. Leisure, of course, is recovering much faster. This mix will have an impact at the end on how bookings may evolve in the future. Again, our assumption is clearly that things will keep recovering as we have seen during this year, and we continuously seeing as we speak. With regards to the cloud, no, we are not accelerating. We are really doing as we expected, and having our plans, and working on that. And it's a complex project that has, you know, timelines we have communicated to you.

We have already started to see costs of the cloud migration into our PNL this year. Therefore we keep with the plan that we had originally, and it's not related. Of course, it's important for our future to really be on this technology, but we are taking our journey. I'm sure Sabre is taking their journey with Google. We are very pleased with their relationship with Microsoft overall. The project is doing according to the plan at this point. Look pleased with the current timing, and it will be a progressive project with ongoing migrations as we speak. The plan is similar to what we had anticipated to you and we had a couple of years ago.

Charlie Brennan
SVP, Equity Research, Jefferies

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Victor Cheng from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Victor Cheng
Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Hi, Luis. Thanks for taking my questions. I guess first of all, how confident are you with your 23 guidance given volumes like you have recovered slower than expected year to date? Should we expect lower spend to meet free cash flow or EBITDA if rest of year recovery continues to be relatively mild? Secondly, on air distribution, again, I think Adam alluded earlier, one of your competitors cited market share wins. I know it's hard to compare, you know, on certain months, but maybe can you give us some color on maybe which regions you're winning or losing or is it corporate or leisure that you're seeing some share gains? Lastly, can you remind me what's the percentage of airline IT revenue that is non-PB related currently and then back in 2019? Thank you.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Look.

Operator

Confidence and guidance.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Look, we keep the guidance that we provided to you. We feel it's too early. We have started the year strongly. So we feel very confident today that we can achieve that, but at the same time, we feel it's a bit early. Again, I mentioned some of the question marks, as you know, because we all live in the same world about how things may evolve, and how the capacity is going to evolve. So far so good. Demand is strong. Bookings, overall, KPIs, have been good, and our results have been strong. Saying that gives us confidence that we'll be able to achieve our guidance. It's not today, and we are not in a position, and we are not going to change that today.

With regards to market share, I already mentioned that. I mean, look, we need to look into the trend. We need to look into what we are doing. We feel very happy with the performance we are having in each single region. There are some mixed effects sometimes from some customers. We are not losing customers, which is good. Again, in some specific cases, you lose one here and there, but overall our track record is good. We feel confident. Again, this is our goal. More than that is difficult to really talk because we don't provide you the provision. Look, overall, the performance has been strong, and the commercial traction and opportunities are clearly there.

Till Streichert
CFO, Amadeus IT Group

In terms of the third question, just on your AIIT non-transactional revenues. Look, what I can tell you is, without providing the specific split, is basically what's behind it is our AIIT services business. The other one is largely our airport business, which is basically not flexing with the passengers boarded volumes. Again, as I said, and this is behind the whole dynamic of the passenger average revenue per PB evolution, as PBs are now coming back, and as you can see, we are pretty close to that. That share that doesn't flex with PBs is also shrinking relative.

Therefore, I do expect that in the not-too-distant future, we are also back in an environment where I don't need to comment or we don't need to highlight that as basically a factor in when you interpret revenue per PB.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Guilherme Sampaio from CaixaBank BPI. Please go ahead.

Guilherme Sampaio
Equity Research Analyst, CaixaBank BPI

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. Three from me. The first one, how do you think about your cash uses as you turn towards low end of your 1 to 5 times net debt to EBITDA? The second one, can you comment on the transition process to NDC and to what extent it has been an opportunity to generate market share gains on the distribution front? And the third one on NDC as well, can you comment on the competition environment for Altéa NDC, mainly from Sabre and the so-called next generation PSSs, and contextualize the efforts you are undertaking within your offering in this area? Thanks.

Till Streichert
CFO, Amadeus IT Group

Shall I start with the capital allocation?

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Yes, please.

Till Streichert
CFO, Amadeus IT Group

Okay. Look, I mean, first of all, just to recap, we obviously have resumed the dividend distribution based upon last year's results. That's the first element in that equation. The second one, as we always said, and we are very pleased with the progress we've made in terms of free cash flow generation and therefore also the leverage side. Our priority is always to invest into growth, and therefore, where we are opportunities to accelerate our growth as well, this would be always top of mind to consider. Of course, as a third step in that is, when we've approached the lower range of our net debt to EBITDA guidance, as in the past, we've also made use of share buybacks, for example.

This is in essence, the pecking order.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Okay. Look, N-NDC, again, we are making our investments. This is, this is a must. This is a trend in the industry. again, we are having a solution both for Altéa as well as for distribution. Is this an opportunity for us, market share? Look, again, it's like any technology evolution, and keeping investing in technology for us has been and is fundamental for our competitive position. It has been in the past. It's not just NDC, the only lever that you have to increase share. We keep investing in other areas to really support, you know, ourselves as well as our competitors. Of course, our competitors will also invest on NDC. We expect there will be competition there.

Our role is to have a technology that is ahead of them as much as we can. Of course, they will try to do the same to really be competitive against us. We feel we are well advanced. We feel we have good solutions. We keep signing customers. Of course, this will be an additional point in trying to really improve our market share. Again, covering the last part, we need to differentiate between NDC, which is more related to merchandising. We talk about evolution with Finnair, which is more about offer and order. All is included into the evolution of technology, of course, but we are talking about different concepts.

Again, it's part of the natural evolution of technologies that happen here, and the industry as any other industries trying to really use the possibilities that technology is offering to us. And of course, this will not be the end. There will be new technologies. As you know, everybody talks today about AI, ChatGPT, and we need to see how we can leverage all the technologies that are in the market to support our customers and to support the evolution of the industry. It's part of our solution. It's part of our evolution. It's part of what our customers are requesting. Again, NDC for Altéa is also a solution that we have, and we are signing on an ongoing basis.

We are embarking, in, order management, and we have announced the deal with Finnair. Hopefully, this will be, one of the deals that, will be there, but, will be more to come. More questions?

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions in the conference call. I will now give back the word to Mr. Luis Maroto for the final remarks. Thank you.

Luis Maroto
President and CEO, Amadeus IT Group

Thank you very much again, for joining us, for your interest and the questions, looking forward to the next quarter, hopefully, as good as the first one. Thank you very much.

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