By Arantxa and Rafa, the key management team who's currently present in this room. Sorry. Let's start with a question from CaixaBank for Trindade, in which she is asking about the current interest rate environment and competition for new projects. If we can, within that environment, if we can comment on the IRRs of most recent project. I reiterate my comments in my introduction. We have not seen a significant change in the financial structure of our investments in energy because as prices, costs have risen in CapEx and financial costs have also increased by about 200 basis points. They have been offset by the increase in energy prices.
Our returns, going forward and the curves that we use as a reference, which is a mixture of all the public curves plus our own future projections and our own curves, all those elements put together, throw out IRRs that remain in the ranges that we were using before when we came public and made our assumptions in the IPO. No, the answer is no, it has not changed substantially in any way. Obviously, there's variations in regions, but no, the change is not substantial in that front. I don't know if there's anything you want to add, Rafa or Arantxa.
No, maybe in on top of the prices also the green certificates are increasing the price, so the addition, energy plus green certificates are compensating and offsetting the increase in the CapEx.
Okay. second question is about M&A. M&A and the possibility of M&A helping reach the 2025 target. Indeed, that's something that we've always kept in our, in our, as a possibility, and in fact, we have done a couple of M&A, smaller M&A projects, a few M&A projects in the past 18 months. One of which has added capacity in the battery space, and we expect to have to continue to have opportunities of that nature. That was a question from Fernando Garcia. I'm sorry. From CaixaBank for Trindade again, and Deutsche Bank, Olly Jeffery. The third question is from Fernando Garcia at Royal Bank of Canada, which goes on regulatory banding will be neutral in the future.
Will achieve prices evolve with just market prices and hedge prices in Spain? Arantxa or Rafa.
Thank you. You're right that the reversion of the banding is one of a accounting item in 2022. We are doing just the same of the rest of the utilities in the sector in Spain. Most of our regulated assets will not have regulatory income going forward. We're estimating only between EUR 2 million-3 million in the coming years, and will consume any residual net asset value before the end of their useful life. Going forward in Spain, you're also right that the regulatory driver is gonna be very marginal. It will all be about how we sell the electricity through long-term contracts, financial hedges, and also the portion of merchant.
I will suggest that you have a look at the slide in the appendix, where you can find some detail on how the mix of volumes may evolve in Spain in the future.
Thank you, Arantxa. there's another question from Fernando Garcia at RBC. What is the output subject to gas clawback in Spain in 2023?
Yes. Thank you. We are estimating that at P50, that would be around 2 terawatt-hours of consolidated Spanish output, and this is taking into account the hedges we put in place before April 2022, and the long-term contracted energy that is below the price of EUR 67 per megawatt hour.
Okay. Question number five comes from a number of attendees to the conference. It comes from Fernando Garcia at RBC, Óscar Nájar from Santander, Jorge Alonso from Société Générale , Lakhshmanan Sivalingam from Kempen, and Olly Jeffery from Deutsche. The question is: Based on your guided capacity installations, would you need approximately 4 gigawatt additions in 2025 to reach your 20 gigawatt guidance for 2025? I guess he means 24 gigawatts in 2024 and 2025. Anyway, it says 4 gigawatts in 2025. Do you maintain the guidance? Which I guess is the key part of the question. Rafa.
Yeah, we are going to build 1.8 gigawatts in 2023, for the next couple of years, 2024 and 2025, we need to do at least 2 gigawatts per year. We are reaching this target. We have some opportunities in the market. As I mentioned before, we are in today talking with some developers in the U.S. markets with opportunities in PV, totalizing 2 gigawatts. With some of these opportunities, we are comfortable with filling the gap to reach the target.
Okay. Question number 6 from Arthur Sitbon at Morgan Stanley. Would you mind providing the underlying commodity and government intervention assumptions for both your low point, EUR 1.5, and your high point, EUR 1.6 billion EBITDA guidance, 2023? Rafa, go ahead, please.
Okay. We are not, we are not expecting more interventions in the year, more than the global extension until the end of the year. In order to the guidance, 1.5, 1.6, we are considering prices, around the forward prices for the year, EUR 130-EUR 150 per watt hour.
Our expectation is that, well, there will be no significant changes in the model regulatory-wise in the next year, in the present, in the current year. The impact, as Rafa says, will be mostly on what happens with the prices. On question number 7, also from Óscar Nájar at Santander, Roberto Ranieri from Stifel, Jorge Alonso from Société Générale, Javier Garrido from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Lakhshmanan Sivalingam from Kempen, and Henry Tarr from Berenberg, is in PPAs. Lately, you have signed several PPAs. Could you please give us some feedback about types, prices, and length? I think it's worth giving the floor to Javier, who's sitting there, Javier Montes, who's the expert on the topic. He will give some color on details.
Hello, good morning. Acciona Energía signed in 2022, 34 PPAs, representing 2.53 terawatt-hours of corporate PPAs and another 300 in some feed-in tariff contracts in Croatia and the Dominican Republic. Of these, more than 95% are 10-15 years in length. Only some 250 gigawatt-hours are on 5-year contracts in Spain, which represent interest from some retail clients. Around 40% of the electricity contracted corresponds to base load contracts in Spain and are supported by assets from our operational fleet, which were coming out of the regulated environment. The rest are pay-as-produced and almost all for new assets. Prices have increased around the world with healthy trends even though the pace might be slowing somewhat in, as we expect, in 2023 but the increase is very substantial compared to 2021. Those increases range from 20%-60% and are more strongly felt in Europe and the U.S. compared to other jurisdictions.
Thank you, Javier. Question number eight comes from Jorge Guimarães , JB Capital. When do you expect CapEx costs pressure in the U.S. to abate? I will pass on to Yin Cho this question. Yin Cho- Hsin, Head of Construction CapEx.
Thanks, José Manuel. Yes, we are in fact already seeing this reduction in cost in PV in the U.S., mainly due to the module, polysilicon and logistic decreases. We are already taking advantage in our current projects under construction on this CapEx reduction. For the rest of the BOP and future projects, the trend is also to going down, not so heavily as it's happening for polysilicon and logistics.
Thank you, Yin Cho. Okay, question number 9 from Jorge Alonso at Soc Gen, Javier Garrido at JP, and Charles Swabey at HSBC, is when do you expect to bring into operation the pipeline of battery capacity that you acquired in the USA? Were there any expected additions of batteries in 2023 and 2024?
Well, in the U.S., we acquired a pipeline with six projects of batteries, something around 1 GW. The projects are securing land, not yet the interconnection. They are pending on the interconnection, and we expect to finish the development in 2025. We are seeing other opportunities of storage in other markets as in Australia.
Let me add, let me add to that there is a line of analysis and research and opportunity around the second life batteries of mobilityOf our vehicles, and we're working hard on that. It's still probably not for the next few years, but it will have an impact in the storage capacity of the electrical system. Okay, question number 10. From Ranieri at Stifel and Garrido at JP Morgan, what is your expectation on the pool prices in Spain for 2023? Arantxa, have you got it?
Thank you. Our current expectation is for the Spanish pool prices to be in the range of EUR 130-150 megawatt-hour. This will also very much influenced and depend on how the second half of the year evolves in terms of temperature, gas storage and prices, LNG market and so on.
Very good. Question number 11. USA Inflation Reduction Act policy and how does from Charles Swabey at HSBC, whether it's possible, whether it's positive with the 2024, 2025 capacity addition or is this more of a 2025 beyond story? Is the potential acquisition of the mature U.S. PV pipeline related to IRA to the Inflation Reduction Act policy? I think this question Rafael Esteban, Head of Development can deal with.
Yeah, sure. Thank you, José Manuel. I mean, IRA, the IRA really helps us in terms of more visibility of the market to attend 10, 12 years of visibility. It really helps to build up and to continue making the pipeline. In the cases of the portfolio that we are looking, the pipeline of projects that we are looking, doesn't relate specifically to it. Of course, it helps. What we are looking is capacity addition. From that pipeline that some of them could go on 2024, 2025, and other ones could go beyond that time.
Thank you, Rafa. This is a question that we can share between Rafa Esteban and Rafa Mateo because it's quite generic. It's on the Brazilian market. Could you give us a color on the Brazilian market, and what are the key factors for growth, and what's driving PPAs in Brazil? So...
Yeah. As I said before, we are developing today in Brazil 1.1 gigawatts in three wind farms, in three wind projects with a very high load factor. The idea is today to finish the development, to reach the Ready to Build situation and to wait for the best moment to look for an off-taker to sign a PPA. Brazil is very dependent on the hydrology. Today, they are living in a window of very low prices, so we need to wait after reaching the Ready to Build, the best moment to sign the PPA. We are permanently talking with potential off-takers in order to close the best moment.
Okay. Well, thank you very much. That does away with the questions on energy. We will then, we will now address the questions on infrastructure in general. I will start with question number one, which is, can you please explain the drivers behind the strong construction EBITDA?
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