Colonial SFL, Socimi S. A. (BME:COL)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 28, 2022

Operator

Welcome to the Inmobiliaria Colonial Full Year 2021 conference call. The management will run you through the presentation, which will be followed by a Q&A session. You can request to ask a question at any point during the presentation by dialing zero one on your telephone keypad. I'm now pleased to introduce Mr. Pere Viñolas, CEO of Inmobiliaria Colonial.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you. Good afternoon. Good morning. This is Pere Viñolas speaking. Carmina Ganyet and Carlos Krohmer are joining me as usual in order to present you the results for 2021. We're going to follow the presentation as usual. I would like to go through page six, which some fundamental highlights of this presentation.

We understand that what's going on these days makes the outlook quite complicated for the economy as a whole and for real estate sector in particular. We are quite pleased to share with you the results that we are presenting for 2021. I think that there are a number of outstanding issues that we achieve during this year that we would like to summarize in this page six.

Maybe I will start with point two of this page. We are finishing our year 2021 with NTA per share of EUR 12.04 per share. As you will see, this means a 7% increase compared to last year, and that's well above. We are beating the analyst consensus. The growth is 7% if we compare an NTA with NTA. If we measure total shareholder return, we are talking about 9%. Well, this year we already know more or less what our peers did. We are number one in the list of our comparable companies. We are at the very high end. Number three, our EPS for year 2021 is EUR 24.6 .

We are reaching the high end of the guidance that we disclosed to the market a few months ago. In terms of comparable recurring earnings, we are achieving a double-digit growth. As we will see now in details, the GAV growth is also outstanding, confirming basically our approach, you know. Which is we have been focusing our strategy in positioning the company basically in prime.

Basically, what we are sharing today with you basically is telling us that quality delivers. Basically, there is a superior return coming from this superior kind of position. You will see also that Colonial is growing also through a relaunch of major acquisition program, post successful disposals in previous years. We are also finishing 2021 with leadership regarding ESG strategies, regarding decarbonization.

As an example, we are the only office company in Europe that has obtained A rating in CDP. Also, you will see later on an outstanding rating in GRESB, another benchmarks in this area. In particular, we are the first company in IBEX 35 in the and the Spanish real estate arena to have transformed fully their green bond, their bonds into green bonds.

All of these results are the consequence of this delivery of superior performance based on the quality of our assets. There are a number of additional things that I would like to share in this introduction. This year, 2021 was good, not only looking backwards in terms of our returns, our NTA evolution, our growth in all of these indicators. It was also an outstanding exercise in terms of letting volume.

As you know, letting volume is more an indicator of what's coming next in the future than of what happened in the past. Because its impact in the P&L, it's supposed to be happening basically going forward in the next few months or years. We finished 2021 with 170,000 sq m volume. This is an outstanding figure because this is the second highest in the history of Colonial. Our average speed or average activity would be like 100,000 and we are well above this figure. On top of that, number two, we would like to flash that we are accelerating. As the data will prove, second half of last year was much better than first half of 2021.

There is an acceleration in our letting activity throughout 2021. As a result of that, the Group occupancy finished 96%. Again, this is a very good number, not only in absolute terms, but also in relative terms compared to the peers in the market. This is because basically, again, of the polarization that it's happening in our market and the fact that we are so much focused in Grade A kind of assets, allow us to capture market share and maximum rental prices. The net rental income also showed a very good evolution with a like-for-like in excess of 3%, which again, is in the high end of a comparable universe.

We will also talk about our project pipeline and our renovation program, the two main contributors of future rents, where we basically see letting activity on track following, let's say, the best evolution. Our rental growth is also showing a good path. ERV growth is accelerating, and you will see that at the end of 2021, our rents that we're signing were 5% above the rents at the end of 2020. Last but not least, of course, the company is very well-positioned to capture momentum in our cash flows through indexation. It's well known that almost all of our rents are indexed to, linked to, CPI, to the evolution of prices.

Maybe on top of that, I would like to highlight that this is happening in a company that is showing ERV growth. That means, in other words, that we are providing the right kind of buffer to capture all of this increase in rents coming from inflation. In the end, I believe very good numbers in terms of NTA growth, in terms of EPS, in terms of ESG evolution, in terms of letting volume, in terms of occupancy, in terms of like-for-like growth, in terms of ERV growth, and also with the pipeline and the renovation program showing good momentum. This could be the headlines of our results for 2021. On page seven, we see the data more specifically.

As I said, NTA for 2021 is 12.047% +, compared to year before, 9% if we include the dividend. The total NTA of the company is now EUR 6.5 billion, which is 13% above the previous year. The gross asset value is EUR 12.4 billion. That means a 6% like for like. In terms of group net profit, our profit is EUR 474 million. As you know, 2020 was mainly flat. We got between EUR 2 million and EUR 3 million of profit only. We are increasing our net profit by EUR 471 million. The net profit being now EUR 474 million. This is mainly due to the evolution of the valuation of our properties, which is very positive.

On top of that, the recurring earnings are at the level of EUR 128. That means if we think in comparable terms, +15%, then if we adjust because of divestments and because of assets that go into renovation program, then the evolution is a different one. The recurring EPS, it's EUR 24.6. We gave a guidance that was below that. I think that the end of the year was quite strong and we achieved this significant number. Net rental income, it's EUR 293. As I said, this is a like for like growth of 3.3%. It's worth noticing that in the case of Paris, this like for like is 6.4%.

Page eight, letting volume, 170,000. It's 75% more than the year before. It's the second highest number in our history. As I said at the beginning, if you look at this number, the second half of the year accounts for 110. That is almost 2/3 of everything that was done during last year. You can see a very important acceleration. This second half of the year delivered 100% growth in terms of letting activity. Overall occupancy, it's 96%. Again, worth highlighting that Paris is 98.4%. That also shows a very good performance. As I said, the ERV shows also some growth, 5% for the year 2021, 8% for the last quarter. We are proud of our leadership in terms of ESG.

We are finishing our 2021 year with 95% of our assets with BREEAM certification, which is well above market standards. We are finishing last year with A rating in terms of CDP scoring. The only European office company among the top 12 companies in real estate worldwide according to CDP. In terms of GRESB, it's 94 out of 100. Again, a leader in listed offices in Western Europe according to GRESB. Also, the result of an evolution that shows a 54% increase in four years. Finally, the first company to go green in terms of financing, in terms of bonds, that was a recent major achievement. Well, we will now go into details. I will ask Carlos Krohmer to step in with the details in operations.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you very much, Pere. Let's go to page 10. Quick overview on the market. On the left-hand side of this page, you see the vacancy in the CBD. 3% in Paris, and 6% and 7% in Barcelona and Madrid. When we look at the high-quality share of this, we have almost no grade A product in Paris and 4% of grade A availability in Barcelona and Madrid. This faces a significant positive momentum in take-up, in demand. In Paris CBD, the take-up has reached a level above 400,000 sq m. Here, this is a 55% year-on-year growth. What is more important than that, this figure is even higher than the pre-COVID figure of 2019.

Barcelona's had an extremely good momentum, 240% higher than the previous year, 330,000 sq m. In the last quarter, close to 100,000 sq m have been signed. The market, 85% of the demand has been closed in grade A assets. Madrid has reached a figure above 400,000 sq m for the total market. This is a 22% year-on-year increase. In the investment market, the activity also has been quite positive. EUR 12 billion of transactions in the Paris market. For the overall year, 60% has been office, and focus has been on high-quality product. Barcelona has registered a record year, the highest investment volume in the last 14 years. EUR 2 billion of activity.

This is 13% above the investment volume of pre-COVID, of 2019. 70% of the transactions have been in CBD and 22@. In Madrid, the investment volume has been EUR 655 million. Lower than in Barcelona, basically because of the lack of product. There has not been good product in the market. However, on this activity, 60% of the volume has been assets concentrated in the CBD. After having done this overview of the market, let's go to Colonial operations. On page 11, you see an overview of the main operating KPIs. All of them very good, very successful. Here, what you can see is that the last two quarters, each of them had more than 50,000 sq m, and this has led to a significant increase in every market.

137% more volume, more letting activity in Paris, 72% more in Madrid, and 28% more in Barcelona. All in all, 75%. If we analyze this further, let's step to page 12. You can see that it's 75% above previous year. If we attach the rents signed to the square meters, in economic terms, we are even doubling the previous year. We are not only signing more, we are signing at higher prices. The total increase in letting activity has been, in economic terms, +114%, and with a significant acceleration in the last two quarters of the year. We are capturing new tenants, here you see some examples, and also renewing with our tenants in the portfolio base.

Very important element, our renovation program. You know that we have a renovation program of more than 100,000 sq m. Paris has had an extremely good performance. We have already let 28,000 sq m of the total renovation program of 32,000 sq m. This is quite a lot, so it's almost pretty done. On the two assets of the Madrid renovation program, Cedro and Ortega y Gasset , we are close to have Cedro 100% let. As of today, it's 47% pre-let, and we are in conversations for the rest. Ortega y Gasset , we are having a lot of conversations. In Barcelona, we are putting now the new product on the market, [inaudible] and Diagonal 530.

They will have also some Utopicus offering, so they will be attractive hybrid products, and we are very positive on the outcome of this. They are just coming now on the market. On page 14, let's look a little bit where we are signing. What you see here is every single market and the letting activity. What you can see is that basically we are signing in the city center. Everything is basically in the CBD. You see here on the map the different assets where we have been signing the contracts and the maximum rents that we have been achieving. Maximum rent EUR 9.30 in Paris. That is really the prime rent. Madrid, EUR 35. In Barcelona, EUR 28. We are setting really the reference for the prime rent.

On page 15, you see a little bit more of analysis of the second half. As Pere mentioned, in the second half, we have done 110,000 sq m. This is more than the entire volume of the last year. More interesting than this, out of this 110,000 sq m, the immense part has been letting up of new available space. As a consequence, we have increased our occupancy by almost 300 basis points in a quarter, so quite significantly. When we look where we stand today, Paris has an occupancy of 98.4%, so practically, not technically, fully let. Madrid and Barcelona are at 93% as of December. Page 16, where is this 4% vacancy? What is behind this?

What you can see here, that is pretty attractive product behind this. Out of this 4%, 1% corresponds to the renovation program in Madrid. As I said, Cedro, we are almost there to have it fully let. Ortega y Gasset said we have a lot of conversations. Another 1% roughly is the two assets of the Paris renovation program. This has had also a lot of momentum. The rest, we have 1.6% of overall group vacancy in CBD assets in Madrid and CBD assets in Barcelona, and then a small 0.5% in a secondary Barcelona Sagrera asset. We are very comfortable because it's very attractive product that will be able to capture really the maximum market rents. With this, I step to page 17.

Here you see the rental performance, release spreads and ERV growths quite good. I think the most interesting point to focus on is on the ERV growth. As you can see, the overall year, we had, for the total year a ERV growth of 5%, but we have had a quite significant, increase in acceleration of growth in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the ERV growth of all the contracts signed there has been 8%, and the breakdown of this is + 9% in Paris, + 5% in Madrid, + 10% in Barcelona, well above the cumulative ERV growth that we have the nine months before. As always, what you can see, Paris is leading.

Paris always is starting earlier, so Paris has started earlier with the growth, but we are seeing now quite important momentum in Madrid and Barcelona. Then we have delivered two projects of the project pipeline. They are totally finished and fully let, and they will come full into our P&L from this year onwards. Here we have achieved two things to highlight. First, a very significant rental uplift. In the Arenal, the asset before the project was on an average rent of EUR 14. Now it's at EUR 28, so we have doubled the rent. Together with the quality of the asset and that having put in a blue chip tenant with a long-term contract, with a 10-year contract, we have created 40% of capital gain margin on the total cost of this asset.

The acquisition price plus the cost is 100%. What we have gained in excess of value is 40%, so we are at 140% of total cost. In Paris, we have finished and fully let the Marceau building. It's close to the Arc de Triomphe. There, the building had rents pre-project below EUR 600. We are now well above EUR 900, 70% rental uplift. When we look at the final value vis-à-vis the initial cost, we have doubled the value. We have a 108% capital gain margin, so quite remarkable. Delivering projects gives us a significant cash flow uplift and a very important value uplift also.

Carmina Ganyet
Chief Corporate Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Okay. Thanks, Carlos. In this section, we are going to see the financial numbers of the operational performance described. I am on page 20. The first one is the gross rental income. The gross rental income grows 2% like for like, especially in Paris with 3%. Especially this growth is mainly driven by prices, as you can see in these details, with Barcelona outstanding with 3.4%. It means that the contract portfolio base is very well positioned to capture momentum, to capture ERV growth and to capture, of course, indexation. If we look at net rental income in the next page, 21, the net rental income grows 3.3%, increasing efficiency.

In Paris, outstanding with a growth of 6.4%, especially driven by the positive impact of the Hotel Indigo, which in 2020 it was fully impacted by COVID. In this 2021 has been into operation, so it has been positively impacted in the, in this net rental income growth with a total average in the three markets of more than 3.3% growth. Another important impact in our results is the valuation. I am in page 22. The update valuation shows a growth of 6% year-on-year like-for-like across all the segments, especially Madrid with outstanding 7% like-for-like growth. I would like to highlight a significant acceleration of this value of the second half of 2021, as you can see here in the detail.

Paris second half 4% out of the full year of 6% growth. Madrid, second half of the year, 4% out of 7%, like-for-like growth total year. Barcelona, 2% second half out of the 6% year-on-year growth of gross asset value. Consequently, we are delivering a very solid profitability result with enhanced quality of them, with a total group net profit of EUR 474 million. Basically driven by the 6% growth of gross asset value and the 3.3% growth of net rental income. Additionally, the recurring earnings in comparable terms would have been EUR 158 million, so more than 13% year-on-year.

Due to the fact that we have sold, as you know, some non-strategic assets, the recurring profit shows a figure of EUR 128 million, basically very impacting in terms of liability management, saving interest costs and of course, increasing efficiency in our portfolio operational. Consequently, the EPS is increasing in comparable terms from EUR 0.27- EUR 0.3043 per share. That means that results are reaching in 2021 the high end of the EPS guidance, basically driven by cost control and financing savings, as you have seen, the acceleration of the activity in the second half of the year and of course, being impacted positively, especially the last quarter of the year, of the inflation of our total portfolio base.

In the next page, you see in more details the different impacts on our recurring earnings. Last year we closed recurring net profit of EUR 138 million, EUR 0.27 per share. We have been impacted due to the positive like-for-like rental growth, a positive recurring EBITDA of EUR 10 million. On top, as you know, the different liability management and enhancing the capital structure, we have been impacted the results of more than EUR 6 million. The impact of project the additional interest in SFL that will be has been impacted since August 2021 results. We have been also being impacted positively of EUR 4 million of minority and others.

In comparable terms, the recurring earnings would have been EUR 1.583043 per share. As we have disclosed in the last quarter results during the year, we have been offloading secondary assets, so with a negative impact in the comparable recurring net profit. We have also accelerated renovation programs, so the total recurring net profit results into EUR 0.246 per share, 128% in the high end of the guidance we have disclosed during the year. In the capital structure, I am on page 25. You know very well that we have done several liability management, several buybacks programs, improving the debt profile of our company.

with also issuing more than EUR 1 billion new bond issuance, extending maturity, lowering the coupon. Today the spot cost of debt of the group is 1.4% from December 2021. We have a very solid capital structure with less than 36% loan to value, historical low levels with an average maturity of five years on more than 95% of the debt is fully hedged or at fixed cost. More than 85% of the debt is maturing more than 2025.

Thanks to the profile of our portfolio and thanks to the leadership on the ESG, as you know, we have been converted all our outstanding bonds, more than EUR 4.6 billion into green bonds. Today, Colonial is the first company in the IBEX 35 in Spain, is the first company in the real estate that all the debt, 100% of the debt, meaning the bond outstanding and the bilateral debt is fully green. All of the debt has been converted and has been received the support from the bondholders to being converted into a green. As a consequence of the increase of the net asset value, the gross asset value, and the dividends that we have been released, I am in page 26.

Our net tangible assets has been increased year-on-year of 9% in terms of dividends and NTA. NTA has been growth 7%, sorry, year-on-year. Highlighting the second half of the year with doubling the increase of value vis-a-vis the first half of the year of EUR 0.54 per share in the second half of the year, plus the EPS. The NTA at the end of 2021 shows a figure of EUR 12.04 per share, 13% year-over-year in absolute terms. Which means that, including the dividend that we have distributed during 2021, we have released or we are delivering a total shareholders' return of 9%, well above our peers.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you, Carmina. This is Pere again. Now I would like to cover a little bit the topic related to ESG. ESG is a high priority for us, so it is for everyone, I guess. I think that most important is to come with some specific data or some specific achievements on this, you know, to prove our wishes and what we do, no? First of all, we have been doing extraordinary efforts regarding decarbonization in recent years. To give just a simple measure, a few years ago, we were above 20 kg of CO2 per sq m. We are now around 6 kg of CO2 per sq m. That is a figure that is outstanding, I believe, in absolute terms.

If you look around and see where everybody does stand regarding this, I think that it's even more outstanding. This is part of our plan to become net zero by 2030, and we are working in this direction, as you know, quite strong. Besides this, we have been obtaining the recognition of the market in our best practices regarding ESG. As I said before, CDP has been scoring us with an A, and this is outstanding. There are only five real estate companies in Europe with this score. There are only twelve real estate companies in the world with this score. In GRESB, we are at a five-star level.

We are at 94 out of 100, 97 out of 100 if we talk about our development portfolio growing by 54% in four years. The picture looks a little bit the same if we talk about GRESB, where we are in the top 3% of almost 5,000 companies. That's the coverage of GRESB. If we talk about Sustainalytics, where we are around 10 in terms of scoring, which is top 21 out of 430 listed real estate companies. We are at score eight in terms of MSCI, and finally, with a score of four to five in terms of FTSE4Good rating. I think that all of this is really outstanding.

Maybe, to finalize, Carmina just was commenting on this big important project that we've done in order to transform all of our existing debt, and I stress, emphasize all of our debt into green debt. I think that this is a very interesting project. We just finished it quite recently. Now we are one of the only companies which all of our debt, which is green. Now, the interesting moment comes, no? In the next future, we will see to what extent the greenium, the, let's say, the lower cost of our debt, it's there in the market and to what extent our cost of capital can be reduced because of this. We did our part of the work.

Now the market is there or should be there to prove that we are very well positioned and in the right direction. Now let's go to section number five, which is basically devoted to answer the question, what else can we do in the future? Where we can make more money, where additional value can come from? We are pointing at five different topics. The first one is a well-known point, which is the acquisition of the remaining part of SFL that we did not own and where we are now owners of a 98.3%. As you have seen throughout this presentation, the performance of Paris CBD, and I will insist, CBD, it's really outstanding.

The fact that we have had an additional exposure to this allows us to benefit marginally, additionally, from this. It's not only the evolution of the market itself. It's the fact that we are having three very important projects there. That one has already been delivered recently, which is Marceau, that are extremely value accretive, and we are now additionally exposed to that. Finally, the terms of the deal. We did a transaction in SFL that now that we have new information about the NAV of that company by the end of 2021. Now we can say that this transaction is even more accretive, not only in terms of NAV, but also in terms of EPS.

If you look at our EPS, how much it can grow into the future, it will be accretively enhanced because of this acquisition of SFL. The number two driver in our future evolution is our pipeline, our well-known pipeline of nine projects that account for EUR 1.26 billion. We've gone through this many times before, so basically I will focus on the evolution. In 2021, we delivered Diagonal 525 and 83 Marceau in Paris in very good terms, with a very important capital gain on total cost on both projects. 40% in Diagonal 525, and more than 100% in 83 Marceau.

Now we are focused in delivering as soon as possible a couple of projects in Madrid, Miguel Ángel and Velázquez, and at a certain later stage Biome in Paris. Later on throughout the year, Sagasta 27. Well, basically, news are that in the case of Miguel Ángel we are in very well advanced negotiations for 100% pre-letting of this building. We expect quite soon very good news on this in this building of Miguel Ángel 23. In Velázquez 86, we are going into a multi-tenant strategy that's going quite well. Here we're talking about conversations of 50%. To be honest, we are well above this 50% as of today, but we have to be prudent. That's why we would talk about this 50% as of now, no?

Conversations for this building are going very, very well in the current environment that we're going through. Biome just starting as we speak, but very high interest, so we remain confident in the evolution of this. As you can see, the evolution of this, it's quite good. Looking more into the future, Méndez Álvaro is still a little bit too soon to talk about pre-letting activities, but very well on track in terms of the development of the project. Louvre Saint-Honoré is both going very well in terms of development and as you know, already pre-let in very good terms, also. All of this means a significant potential of EUR 79 million. Out of the EUR 79 million, EUR 28 million have already been pre-let.

As you can see, another chunk, another important part of the next 2023, it's already in advanced negotiations. That's a very important source of future EPS that it's gaining the right progress. On page 34, I would like to talk about the renovation program. A renovation program sometimes has less visibility than the pipeline because it's, let's say, has less glamour. It's about working in our existing buildings, sometimes in part of our existing buildings, in order to renovate them. Sometimes this kind of work is less visible to the outside community. We work hard on nine different projects for more than 100,000 sq m of GLA. There we are having very good news, too.

In June 2021, we had a passing rent of EUR 8 million in these properties. At the end of this year, 2021, that has doubled to EUR 17 million. On top of that, there are additionally EUR 13 million of rents that come out of the pre-letting activity in some of these assets. That means that this, let's say, second leg of renovation program is already coming with EUR 30 million of secure rents that will add to our current EPS in the future of the company. There's still EUR 16 million more to come, up to EUR 46 million. That would be the total reversionary potential of this renovation program.

If we look at this, EUR 46 million, and then we put them in the context of the EUR 70 million, EUR 79 million that we see for our pipeline, that makes quite an interesting number for the future evolution of our EPS. Driver number four, it's our acquisition strategy. Basically, as a coincidence, we are announcing today that we've just signed a purchase option, what in France they call it a promesse d'achat contract, in order to buy the Amundi headquarters in Paris. We are talking about an asset of around 40,000 sq m in the [inaudible] of Paris. This is a very important transaction. It's an off-market transaction. We did not succeed in any auction. We made it in a different way. We are buying this from Primonial, and the tenant is Amundi.

It's their well-known headquarters. We are talking about an asset which is the seventh-largest office in Paris. You know of our strategy of sitting on this kind of horizontal super big boxes as the right one to deliver the kind of strategy that we want for our buildings, that can deliver efficiency, experience and sustainability in the future. On top of that, we are talking about a building where we have a 12-year contract with Amundi, which is super top-tier client. We are buying into very good contract for the long term. Of course, CPI protects now. Moreover, with an exposure to an area of Paris in which we believe.

In an area in transformation, which is targeted by large companies, and it's sitting next to one of the best transport hubs in Paris, in the city. It's a part of our strategy in the long term, in which we believe a lot, you know. This acquisition is to be finished now in the next few months, so we'll enter probably into operation in the second half of the year. I think that the main agreement has just been reached, and that's why we are making this public this today, you know. On top of that, we did the acquisition of the Danone headquarters in Barcelona by the end of last year. We went through the disposal of some secondary non-core around EUR 66 million, always at the premium on GAV.

This is another source of income and value that will support our strategy way into the future. Finally, our fifth value driver is simply to talk about the potential of rental growth that our company has, no? First of all, reversion potential. You can see on the left of page 36, the rental price reversion, which is coming from comparing market rents versus current passing rents at the end of last year. You can see the very important figures and, even higher if we allow for full price and occupancy potential. Strong reversion would be the first thing to be mentioned. Second, of course, and particularly after today, for example, we just learned that CPI went up 7% in Spain this month.

We learned not so long ago that in France, CPI were also substantially. Of course, we have all of our contracts, except for a couple of contracts with public administration in Spain, linked to indexation without gaps, no. We expect a lot coming from this in terms of additional cash flow. You can see as an example, the gross rental income with indexation coming from the window related to the first half of 2022. We are talking about EUR 135 million of annualized GRI with indexation that comes due during the next few months. The third point on the right-hand side of this is also important. We are experiencing rental growth.

We finished 2021, the fourth quarter, with an 8% ERV growth. I think that this is important because if you have indexation, but if you don't have rental growth, you are anticipating this, let's say, growth in your cash flows. In the end, you need a buffer to take full advantage of your reversion plus indexation. For this, you need rental growth to be there. Basically, we are presenting a picture, a very attractive picture, where we do have strong reversion, plus indexations, plus rental growth. All of this leads us to the typical picture that we've shown before.

We are a company that, without doing anything outside our company, should be able to deliver a substantial growth in our cash flows from the static passing GRI of today of EUR 344 million to almost EUR 500 million into the future. This is basically what we want to share with you today. Just to conclude. I think that we showed a very outstanding achievement in our activity.

At the beginning of our presentation, I mentioned the super record that we went through in terms of letting volume. How this letting volume was being accelerated in the second half of the year, how this allowed us to have an occupancy of 96%. All of this with a net rental income above 3% in like for like terms, with ERV growth also accelerating.

All of this is translated into a value of the company that is growing substantially. The NTA of the company being now EUR 12 per share, above consensus, 9% total shareholder return or 7% growth in terms of NTA above our peers, with an EPS that is growing in more comparable terms, double-digit, but in any way is high end of the guidance that we mentioned. Also taking into consideration non-financial returns for our shareholders. Well, all of these are, we believe, very valuable points, very good achievements. On top of that, we always like to highlight that instead of looking backwards, we look forward. Are there any drivers that can allow us to make more money for our shareholders in the future?

Well, we've gone through a number of drivers that we believe that will allow us to deliver additional good results into the future. In this page 39, maybe at the bottom, just to mention, we are today having a new guidance for our EPS, regarding EPS 2022 in the range of EUR 0.28-EUR 0.29 per share. To be honest, we want to be prudent in current circumstances. We only have to read newspapers, no? Or watch TV to understand that we have to be prudent. In this context, we are providing this guidance of EUR 0.28- EUR 0.29. In the next general shareholders meeting, we expect the shareholders to approve a new dividend of EUR 0.24 per share.

This is fully in line with our strategy, which is for our dividend per share to grow 10% as the EPS. We basically have a strategy of delivering double-digit growth numbers in our cash flows. Finally, we have a positive momentum for we have vision for the real estate market and for prime city assets where we are mainly focused. This is the presentation for today. Thank you. Now we are open for any questions that you may have. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Please be informed that there can be short silence while questions are being registered. Thank you. The first question comes from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF. Please go ahead.

Florent Laroche-Joubert
Equity Research Analyst, ODDO BHF

Hi. Thank you for this presentation, and congratulations for your great results. I would have maybe two questions. The acquisition you have done in Paris is a significant one. We can see that the Amundi headquarters is, for example, with 12-year contract. My question would be what is the rationale in terms of value creation for Colonial in the short term or medium term? Or also what is the rationale in terms of asset management work for that asset?

What will be your LTV ratio post-acquisition? And do you have any further appetite for other acquisition in 2022? That would be my first question. My second question would be on your guidance for 2022. You say that it is a prudent one. Could you be maybe more explicit or maybe on the main assumptions you have taken into account in this guidance? I don't know, maybe in terms of indexation or vacancy, or maybe asset to enter into the pipeline. Thank you very much.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you. I'll go through the two questions, but maybe on the second, Carlos or Carmina may come with additional details. Look, first on the Amundi acquisition, I think that there are three levels of rationale, no? The first one, it's about the own terms of the acquisition, which unfortunately we cannot still disclose fully because we are bound to confidentiality clauses. Typical on this kind of acquisitions, no? We are still not at the very end. The main reason of course in this kind of transactions, it's because we are seeing that we are buying in very good terms.

The second rationale for this acquisition, of course, it's cash flow, no-- It's sitting on a very secure long-term indexed cash flow for 12 years that we believe that it's gonna be supportive for the KPIs of the company in the short term. The third reason is more real estate oriented. We would not buy in a just a contract that provides cash flow, and that's it. Basically, more long-term oriented, there are two things to mention.

First, if we look at the characteristics of the building to what we like in our strategy, and we've gone very much in depth in the past about this, is big horizontal assets that allow us to implement our strategy. That it's not only about CBD location, it's about being able to providing efficiency, which means flexibility to the tenants, which is one of the main criteria in looking into the future. Second, experience.

I mean, everybody talks about doing lively assets, but we believe that without big layout with big platforms, it's very difficult to do. Third, efficiency, which again, sorry, I should say environmental efficiency, which again, in this kind of buildings is much better than in a tower, no, to put an example. It's a kind of buildings that we like, which is a big horizontal and simple. The second rationale has to do about the location.

We believe that again, looking at the megatrends that are happening in our sector, I think that these kind of neighborhoods super very well connected, sitting on top of one of the main train stations in terms of activity of people going by every day, you know. I think that we are talking about an area of Paris in which we believe a lot and which is gonna experience substantial revaluation in the future. As you will see this acquisition of Amundi, it's a mix of beautiful terms of the agreement, sitting on CPI index, cash flow for 12 years, real estate rationale of the asset itself and on the location on the other side, you know. Do we contemplate any other acquisitions?

Well, we've mainly shared a message in recent months that we saw the market more in positive terms, more in order to invest and to divest. Having said that, we remain opportunistic. We don't lower our investment requirements, so we believe that we have to be more strict than ever. Maybe because of that, no, we can do less things than in other market circumstances. Anyway, we would be looking at other acquisitions that could make sense, no. Just before passing the word to Carmina for additional comments. In terms of guidance, the only main message that we would like to give is that, at least in our case, we do it bottom up, no.

When we look at the guidance that we want to share with the market, we go asset by asset, we go with individual assumptions one by one, and that's the way we come to the final guidance. Then, of course, we can be more prudent or not so prudent, and we wanted to be more prudent in this particular circumstance. Maybe Carmina if you want to add anything to these questions.

Carmina Ganyet
Chief Corporate Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Well, no, I think you also asked about the debt, no, and the fact that, as Pere mentioned, it's a very interesting yielding asset. As you can imagine, it improves our ICR, improves our debt to EBITDA ratio, maintaining the levels of the investment grade criteria that we have today, no, in the range of 37, max 39% on the value. It will remain below 38% on the value, in the high end of the investment grade, in a very, let's say, interesting contract long term that provides a very interesting ICR and improving debt to EBITDA and maintaining and reinforcing the rating and the solvency, no, of our debt.

Florent Laroche-Joubert
Equity Research Analyst, ODDO BHF

Okay. Thank you very much.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, let me remind you again. If you have any questions, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. The next question comes from Rob Byrne from Templeton. Please go ahead.

Rob Byrne
Portfolio Manager, Templeton

I guess that's me. Yeah. That's Templeton. Can you hear me?

Operator

Yes, sir. Please go ahead.

Rob Byrne
Portfolio Manager, Templeton

Okay, great. Yeah. Two questions, if I can. The first one on the ERV growth and indexation and inflation. Could you maybe describe the impact that indexation had on the ERV or what other sources drove up the ERV and how it also translated into the 4% GAAP growth in the second half, please? That would be my first question.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you. Carlos is gonna go through this one.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

First of all, on the 2021 results, the CPI impact has not been a major one, basically because of the structure of our contract portfolio. As we have guided here also, an immense part of our windows of indexation of our portfolio fall into the first part of the year. If you remember, in 2021, before the summer, the indexation rates, the CPIs were at zero during the first quarter, and then they were going a little bit up. There has been not really a meaningful impact of this in this year. A little bit of acceleration at the end of the year, but the main part of this, now when we look at the ERV growth, really it's basically almost all of it, full rental reversion.

Really renewing or letting up spaces at higher rents. Where does this come from? This comes from, on the one hand, from the renovation program that we have really reshaped the space, and on the other hand, because we are signing assets in the CBD. As a summary, really the CPI impact this year and this year's results is not really, not at all material. I would say almost 100% of the ERV growth is pure ERV growth. On the other hand, what we are seeing now is, as everybody knows, we are in a high CPI environment at the moment. As we have shown, there are EUR 130 million of contractual rental volume that has an indexation window now in this first half.

Rob Byrne
Portfolio Manager, Templeton

Yeah, sorry. I might not have got the full last part of your answer, but so what would you think the impact will be in 2022 of, let's say, the 4% or 5% indexation on your ERVs and values?

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Forward-looking, you mean? Forward-looking we are not-

Carmina Ganyet
Chief Corporate Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

2022.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

...2022. This year the impact on total gross rental income, it has been around EUR 1 million-EUR 2 million just. It has been really.

Rob Byrne
Portfolio Manager, Templeton

No, 2022.

Carmina Ganyet
Chief Corporate Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

In 2022.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

In 2022. 2022 is difficult to say at the moment. Now we are, as you know, in France that things are being reviewed quarterly. The contracts are being reviewed quarterly. In Spain, we are now collecting the data. What you can use as a guidance is we have provided the volume that is EUR 130 million of rents, and we have provided what we have, the latest available CPI data points.

Rob Byrne
Portfolio Manager, Templeton

All right. Thank you. Maybe just coming back also to your acquisition of the especially Amundi head office. I appreciate you can't disclose full details, but the simple math of dividing 20 by 500 suggests something with a four. In terms of yields, in the gross yields, obviously the rest of your portfolio is a place lower. Is there anything you could say with regards to, let's say, your hurdle rate on this? What's the kind of total return you're targeting from this building?

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Yes. Look, the kind of returns that we are targeting, they always depend on the risk that we are taking. For example, here, it's very low end of risk, no, that we are having, no? We usually like to look for 5% IRR, no? In terms of the, let's say the investment requirement, no, that we have for this kind of investment, no? This can lead you to imagine, no, the kind of yields, no, that we may have, no? But basically you won't be too wrong. Carmina, if you want to add anything else.

Carmina Ganyet
Chief Corporate Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

No, I think, well, it's confidential, but you know very well the transactions in the market, in the Paris market. This is a very, I would say, a very interesting approach in terms of euro per sq m that we have reached in this agreement, no? Very below the average Paris market for this area.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

You are not far away from what would be a regional expectation. In the end, as I said, the IRR for this kind of investment we would like to underwrite above 5%, which is the case in this. I think that the rest, hopefully, in the future, we could be able to be more specific.

Rob Byrne
Portfolio Manager, Templeton

Yeah. Thanks. That's very helpful. Maybe if I just can squeeze in one more on the guidance. I think at the last results, you actually narrowed it down to 23, and now it's actually a bit higher. Was there kind of a special release or surprise in fourth quarter that you still ended up more close to EUR 0.35 ?

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

No, I think that in the end of 2021, a number of things happened. But basically this acceleration that I was showing before in letting activity. Also CPI started to be CPI, for example, now we are all used to these very high numbers, but in fact, they did not happen at all in the first half of the year. They were happening in the second part of the year and basically in the last quarter. In the last quarter, there was a combination of accelerating of the letting activity plus CPI indexation.

All of these produced, let's say, this nice surprise that maybe a few months ago was not so visible. I think that was mainly it. Now coming into 2022, I think that it's as I said, it's basically the simple extrapolation of what we have and know for every building. You know that we are a company that not only is showing ERV growth in our ordinary activity, but is coming with additional product that we are delivering from our renovation program, from our pipeline. So it's only going through the spreadsheets that are leading us to this new guidance of 28, 29 is quite, let's say, automatic.

As I said before, on the one hand, we want to remain prudent about the guidance. On the other, well, it's a double-digit figure, you know, in terms of increase compared to last year. Again, compared to any peers, we are at the very high ends, no. That's where the number is coming from. Basically, from thinking about CPI, ERV growth and delivery of renovation programs plus pipeline.

Rob Byrne
Portfolio Manager, Templeton

Clear. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Álvaro Soriano from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Álvaro Soriano
Equity Analyst and VP, BNP Paribas Exane

Yes. Thank you very much for taking some time with us. Three questions. The first one on the guidance. I don't know if it includes some income from Velázquez or Miguel Ángel, and of course, if you have included or recognized some income from Amundi in the EUR 0.28 for next year.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Yeah. Regarding Amundi, yes, but basically on the second half of the year, no? Not immediately, no. Regarding Velázquez, I think that in very prudent terms, because as you saw in the slide, we are basically in conversations. When we are in conversations, we let's say attach still a probability to this happening or not happening. Yes, a little bit of this, but in the low end because there's actually no pre-letting. Basically, we believe that pre-letting is gonna be there quite soon based on the nature of discussions that we have. But reality is what it is today. That's why we were prudent in including this in our guidance.

Álvaro Soriano
Equity Analyst and VP, BNP Paribas Exane

For Miguel Ángel as well, a little bit of income recognition or not really into the guidance?

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

I would say that not complete because, again, until we sign, we don't want to give 100% probability. So for example, in the case of Amundi, we did include that because to sign the kind of contract that we sign and we are sharing today, we give this almost 100% probability. So in this case, it's only a timing issue that we are prudent about. In the case of Miguel Ángel , although conversations are fully advanced and have, let's say, high probability of derailing, we did not fully recognize, no, on the rents coming from this. We're a little bit more prudent than this.

Álvaro Soriano
Equity Analyst and VP, BNP Paribas Exane

Okay. We can understand that Amundi income kind of offset the loss from Natixis building exiting or Natixis exiting. Then in the second half of the year, right? That is then also one of the rationales of this acquisition.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Well, there's not a direct link, no, and say because we bought this because of that, no. In a way, it's true that there's a source of income that now is disappearing from Natixis for a while. By the way, in the future, we will share our plans for Natixis, which will be also quite exciting. It's true that there's a cash flow that is disappearing in the short term, and there's a cash flow that is coming from this project. There's not a direct link, no, or a causality between this and that, but you are right in a certain way, yeah.

Álvaro Soriano
Equity Analyst and VP, BNP Paribas Exane

Okay. The last one from my side. Portfolio growth outstanding 6%, but half of it, 3 percentage points is projects. I don't know if you have like a sense or a number of how additional NAV growth we should expect or is yet to come from projects. Also on projects, I don't know if that includes also the renovation program or it is only the big projects like Biome, Velázquez or even Miguel Ángel .

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

I would let my colleagues to step in if they want, but as far as I know or I would say, our numbers are mainly related to the big pipeline. Let's say, not the second league that I call, which is very important, but it has not the same kind of visibility. In terms of NAV or NTA, sorry, yes, we are far away from being able to provide a number of this. As you know, the typical number that we give is that if you go to the slide, which is page 46, and there you see the different numbers that are given. There you can see the total cost of our projects, and you can see the yield on cost.

Therefore, there's an estimate of value creation, future value creation, which comes from the yield on cost at the market yield, no? This is, that's how much can we say about this. Just to emphasize that we have a look, a careful look at this slide every time that we share, just to reconfirm that the yield on cost that we see here, it's confirmed as far as we know today. That would be, let's say, the only way to approach maybe an answer to your question.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Here, Álvaro, we are specifically guiding, as you can see. You can see in the third column of the four columns, the current value, what is today crystallized out of the project portfolio, that is EUR 2 billion. What we can expect further, we're giving here a guidance range of EUR 2.3 billion-EUR 2.5 billion. If we go to the high-end range, it would be roughly EUR 1 on the renovation program.

There's still also value to be crystallized, specifically, especially in Spain. In Paris, a little bit of the value has been crystallized. Please do not forget, on the ERV side, there has not yet been really a value crystallization. The appraisers always takes a little bit time, that they want to see more consolidation of ERV growth. We expect, going forward, to see also ERV value growth crystallizing. We are very confident on the NTA evolution going forward from now, even more seeing the huge appetite for the type of assets that we own.

Álvaro Soriano
Equity Analyst and VP, BNP Paribas Exane

Okay. Thank you very much, and congratulations for the good results.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra Equities. Please go ahead.

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Alantra Equities

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Well, most of them have already been answered. Just one with regards to the letting activity, which has been very strong in the second half of the year. I was wondering if you could give us some color with the beginning of 2022, and by market would also much appreciated.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

On the letting activity, well, as Pere already highlighted, we are having a lot of conversations. Let's touch wood that everything goes well there on the projects. As I mentioned in the presentation, in the renovation program, what Pere said, we are having a lot of conversations. Biome, we are also having interest. At Cedro, we are close to hopefully sign the rest of the buildings, so we would be at 100%.

Overall, in general, this is a trend that continues in Q1. We saw a significant pickup of activity in Q4, and this is continuing. We are having a lot of conversations, and we are confident to release soon additional letting updates on the whole portfolio. Paris is working super strong. This is, I think, quite factual. You can see it here in the presentation. I think the main news is that Spain has picked up, catch up a lot during the end of the year, and we're having many conversations on different assets, so we are quite positive.

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Alantra Equities

Carlos, just to follow up. Is it fair to assume that you will reach another, let's say, 50K sq m in Q1 as well?

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

I don't want to be so great.

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Alantra Equities

A range.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

To really guide on a specific figure. Let's say we have good feelings and what then the final figure is, we will see it, but we have good feelings.

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Equity Research Analyst, Alantra Equities

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you very much. There are no more questions. Dear speakers, the floor is yours.

Carlos Krohmer
Chief Corporate Development Officer, Inmobiliaria Colonial

Thank you very much for your attention today.

Pere Viñolas
Vice Chairman and CEO, Inmobiliaria Colonial

We are pleased to close year two of pandemics with this kind of results. I think that is particularly impressive if we think about the environment that we have to go through. Let's hope that the new environment that is surrounding us will not be just an additional problem for our performance. So far, I think that we are very pleased of having the opportunity to share such good results with you today. Thank you, and have a good day. Bye-bye.

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