Cox ABG Group, S.A. (BME:COXG)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2025

Feb 26, 2026

Enrique Riquelme Vives
Chairman, Cox ABG Group

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for making the time to join Cox 2025 results presentation. We are aware that these are very busy days, and we truly appreciate you making the time to attend our results presentation. As you may have witnessed, 2025 has been quite a busy year for Cox. Certainly, one that has enabled us not only to deliver on each one of our commitments with our stakeholders, but also one where we have been able to take advantage of a once in a lifetime opportunity. Let me explain myself in more details. On one hand, 2025 has been a year in which we have continued to consolidate our operating model. The progress has been driven by the sustained growth of our AssetCo in critical water and energy infrastructure, underpinned by ongoing operational improvements across our ServiceCo.

We have shown our focus on our six strategic regions: Mexico, Central Arc , Brazil, Chile, Africa, Middle East, and Spain. Markets we know well and where we have clear competitive advantage. The above has been reflected in our financial performance, with a sustained growth in revenues, more than 62% year-on-year, EBITDA more than 23% year-on-year, Operating cash flow more than 53% year-on-year. All of the above, while maintaining a solid financial discipline, supported by longstanding relationship with top-tier financial institution, which provide us with the flexibility and confidence required to execute our strategy. On the other hand, 2025 has been marked by the acquisition of Iberdrola México, a key milestone in our history.

It truly represents a clear step forward in scale, tripling our EBITDA from EUR 225 million to approx EUR 800 million on a pro forma basis, and significantly enhancing cash flow visibility through the expansion of our contracted revenues. The strategic fit could not be stronger. It reinforces our asset goal with greater recurrence and stability in revenues and EBITDA. In a market we know exceptionally well and where Cox has long maintained a strong presence throughout the years. As a result of the acquisition, Cox is now positioned at the new level of growth and scale, with a stronger foundation for the years ahead. I pass the floor now to my CEO, Nacho Moreno, who will go in detail through each aspect of the result.

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, and thank you all again for making the time and the effort to attend our 2025 results presentation. As my chairman said, we know these are hectic days, and we truly appreciate you making the time and the effort to attend our results presentation. Allow me to go in further detail through the results that we've been able to deliver to the market in 2025. In page six, you've got the key performance indicators for the company in terms of revenues, EBITDA, adjusted operating cash flow, backlog, and leverage ratios. I should say, in anticipation of going through the numbers, that these are quite astonishing, not only when compared to 2024, but even more so when compared to 2025. In terms of results, we're up 62% from 2024.

In terms of revenues, sorry, we're up 62% when compared to 2024 to achieve EUR 1.140 billion worth of revenues. To put it in a scheme, in a framework, that's almost double of what we achieved in, back in 2023. In EBITDA terms, we're up 23% from 2024 to get to a number of EUR 225 million, which is more than double of what we achieved back in 2023. Our adjusted operating cash flow stands at EUR 127 million, which is 53% up of what we achieved in 2024, and more than 2 x what we achieved in 2023. To be precise, 240% of what we achieved in 2023.

Our backlog that supports our ServiceCo business is more than triple of what we achieved in 2023 and up 43% of the number that we were able to deliver in 2024, to come up to EUR 3.189 billion worth of backlog. All of the above, with a very solid and sustainable financial structure, leverage structure, as my CFO will detail further on, our leverage ratios have been extremely well contained. We're still under 1x net debt to EBITDA, which, as you know, it's our commitment to the market, and all of the above is on a standalone basis. Without taking into consideration what my Chairman described as our once in a lifetime opportunity. Which impact, it could be seen in page seven.

In page seven, we've tried to outline a very simple pro forma of what Iberdrola México plus Cox plus Iberdrola México would look like. As you would see, it definitely puts us in a different scale of growth and visibility, which would enable us to fulfill our strategic plan, revealed to the market back in our Capital Markets Day in October 2025. In terms of revenues, on a pro forma basis, we would be above the EUR 2.5 billion worth of revenues. In terms of EBITDA, we would be closer, we are close to the EUR 800 million worth of EBITDA. In terms of adjusted operating cash flow on a pro forma basis, we are close to EUR 600 million worth of adjusted operating cash flow.

As I said, puts the company at a totally different scale for growth and visibility in the years to come ahead. Our standalone performance that I've just detailed, has been fundamented, has been based on the delivery of our key strategic pillars, which you can see on page eight, which were revealed at our Capital Markets Day back in October 2025. The foundation of our standalone performance has been based, predicated on one hand, our continued growth at AssetCo. Growing at AssetCo level gives us high visibility in terms of EBITDA, high predictability, very high margins, and very high cash flow conversion. It's been based as well on an improved operating performance at our asset company level.

Not only we've been able to improve our performance through our efficiency plan, which I will detail further in a second, but also we've been benefiting from an increased backlog, which has resulted in an increased EBITDA. We've been able to grow both AssetCo as well as ServiceCo, whilst maintaining our financial discipline and a very solid capital structure. My CFO will deepen into that in a second, but the key message that you need to keep for yourselves is that we've been able to accomplish each one of the commitments that we committed to with the market. All of the above results in a very robust operating performance. All of the above will constitute the basis for the next years to come once we've integrated Iberdrola México.

If we were to move to page 10, you would see the basis for the growth or for the operating increase or improved operating performance at our ServiceCo company. Not only we've been able to double revenues and increase by almost, by more than 50% our EBITDA to EUR 80 million, but we've been able to create a sustained increase of our backlog, which has reached almost EUR 3.2 billion. That gives us huge visibility on how the ServiceCo division is going to perform over the next few years.

Furthermore, as you will see later on in the page, this improvement of the ServiceCo division has been helped by an efficiency program, which we announced, I think, back at our first half results, 2025, which has helped us to save almost EUR 35 million in 2025, and which should help us to save anywhere between EUR 30 and 40 million in 2026, both figures on a net basis. All of the above, as I said before, whilst keeping a solid capital structure and a financial discipline, and whilst counting with the support of top-tier financial institutions, all of them listed on the right part of slide 11, which should help us to deliver in the years to come.

If you add 1 + 2 + 3, you get to slide 12, which is: What have we delivered in 2025? We've delivered record revenues to EUR 1.140 billion, record EBITDA, EUR 225 million, record net profit, and again, very solid financial structure and discipline. Allow me now to go into a bit more detail on what my chairman has qualified as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, which for us has been the acquisition of Iberdrola México. We speak about the acquisition of Iberdrola México, and you've heard us before at the Capital Markets Day back in October 2025, we always address it in three different stages. What have we acquired? Why have we acquired it? How have we acquired it?

When it comes to what have we acquired, in page 14, you've got a very brief but accurate description of the asset. It's a leading integrated utility in Mexico, top five generation platform, top one qualified supplier with a unique track record, 2.6 GW of generation portfolio, fantastic commercial outreach and commercial strategy, very high visible, predictable revenues, EBITDA, and cash flow, very sound and solid operating performance. Fantastic asset overall. Why have we acquired it? I cannot think on any other asset that would have a better fit with our strategy. Not only it fits our strategy of growing into critical infrastructure for AssetCo. The geographical overlap is excellent. We know, as my chairman mentioned, Mexico quite well. We're very comfortable. We've been there operating, you know, for many years.

The asset in itself, Iberdrola México, has got a fantastic and very sound financial performance in terms of recurring EBITDA, high visible cash flow, very high cash flow conversion, quite a strong deleveraging profile, et cetera, et cetera. It's in the right market with the right dynamics from a demand-supply perspective. That brings me into the last of the three questions: How have we acquired it? As you may have seen in the press over the past few days, we have signed a club deal of $2.650 billion with seven top-tier financial institutions. I cannot think on a possible stronger group of banks supporting an acquisition. Two of the largest American banks, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and Goldman Sachs. Two of the largest European, Barclays and Deutsche.

Two key banks in Mexico, the largest Spanish banks, Santander and BBVA, a Canadian bank with huge presence in Latin America. That club deal of $2.65 billion will be taken out in the capital markets and will enjoy a solid rating structure, which has already been anticipated by the rating agencies, who are in the process of confirming it. Alongside the debt portion, Cox will be injecting $850 million worth of equity, 350 of which will be common cash to be injected by Cox as common equity, and 500 of which will be provided through a hybrid capital instrument by two financial partners. In terms of timing, we expect to close the transaction quite soon.

I will pass it on now to my CFO, Jose Olive, who will further deepen into the financial information and leverage profile of the company.

Jose Olive Pina
CFO, Cox ABG Group

Good afternoon, everyone, once again, thank you for coming to our results presentation. Some of this financial information that I'm going to detail has already been advanced by my CEO, let me go through it in a bit more detail. As you can see, our revenue has endured a very consistent growth of 62%, finalizing the year in the EUR 1.14 billion of revenues that we predicted a year ago. This has resulted in our EBITDA of EUR 225 million, above last year's EUR 183 million, which signifies a 23% growth. One also, I'd like to point out that this EBITDA is in line with what we guided last year.

This has resulted in an increase of 53% in our operating cash flow, which has gone from EUR 83 million - EUR 127 million. This reflects in our net profit of EUR 69 million versus the EUR 59 million that we registered last year. Moving on to our financial structure, as my CEO and my President have already alluded to, we predicate on a very healthy financial structure, here you can see a clear reflection of it. As of the end of 2025, our total gross debt stands at EUR 524 million. Our liquidity instruments stands at EUR 288 million, this gives us a total net debt of EUR 235 million.

If I break that down into recourse debt, you can see that my recourse debt is, at the end of 2025, was EUR 203 million, and my liquidity instruments on a recourse basis, it stands at EUR 233 million, giving me a total net recourse debt of a mere EUR 1 million. If I look at it on a non-recourse basis, our project finance debt stands at EUR 289 million. Our liquidity instruments on a non-recourse basis, it stands at EUR 55 million, giving us a total net debt on a non-recourse basis of EUR 234 million. This translates into very healthy debt ratios that you can see our total net debt versus EBITDA is one time, and our total financial net debt versus EBITDA is just below one at 0.9 x.

Thank you very much for your time, and I pass it on to my CEO for his closing remarks.

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Allow me now to jump into the closing remarks. As my chairman said, 2025 has been the year where we've been able to consolidate our operating model. Our operating model has always been predicated on the continued growth of our AssetCo in order to gain recurrence and predictable EBITDA and cash flow, combined with an improved operating performance of our ServiceCo division. That has translated in 2025 in record numbers. Revenues, EUR 1.14 billion. EBITDA, EUR 225 billion. adjusted operating cash flow, EUR 127 million. All of that whilst keeping a solid capital structure and delivering upon our financial commitments with the investor community.

All of the above, whilst achieving what I think is the most important event the company has undertaken in its recent history, which is the acquisition of Iberdrola México, which we expect to close very soon, and which will help us to get to a new scale in terms of growth and visibility of cash flows and EBITDA. Thank you all for your time and for attending our 2025 results presentation, and I would open now the floor to any question that you may have. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you, Nacho. Now we come up to the Q&A session. The first question comes from Miguel Medina. You mentioned likely closing the equity from Iberdrola México transaction in March 2026. Is it taking longer than expected?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Thank you, Medina. Thank you all again for attending. No, it is not taking longer than expected. In fact, we're already March, as one would say. March is kind of in a couple of days. What I can tell you is that the Iberdrola transaction, the acquisition of Iberdrola México, will be closed, as I said, very soon. We've not encountered any problem or anything that could lead us to think on a delay. The timing that I'm indicating is taking into consideration that next week is March. No delay on that regard. Closing very soon.

Operator

The next question is from Álvaro Íñiguez from Swiss Re Corporate Solutions . Both from an asset and leverage perspective, the Iberdrola México transaction changes completely Cox's financial standing. What are the expected pro forma leverage metrics, post-acquisition of Iberdrola México of 2026?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Thank you. That's a very good question. Well, it definitely changes the leverage profile of the company. I think it changes the profile of the company, not only the leverage profile of the company, okay? You know, it gets us into a different scale. As such, it changes the profile, the entire profile of the company. It has an impact, obviously, on the leverage profile as well. We don't expect it to be anywhere beyond 3.5 x net debt to EBITDA. You know, we remain... You know, once we've got the final numbers of how the acquisition looks like, we will obviously communicate to the market those numbers, and we will reinstate the leverage commitment or the commitment towards leverage profile of the company.

Operator

We've got a couple of questions from Oscar Najar from Santander. The first one is about Mexico. Your equity portion is $300 million. How are you going to pay for it?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

I think it's more in line with $350 million than with $300 million, Oscar. We're gonna pay with cash. It's cash consideration, which we will inject into the vehicle as common equity.

Operator

Moving to the ServiceCo. How so do we think in terms of revenues going forward for engineering and O&M?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

I think, the track record. One of the things that most of you guys told us when we were IPO-ing the company a year and a half ago, was, you know, the importance of achieving a track record. I think the development experienced from 2023 to 2024 and from 2024 to 2025, somehow gives us the benefit of such track record. Going into the question, if you look at the way or the improvement that we've experienced, not only in the revenue, in the revenue line for our ServiceCo, but more importantly in the backlog line of our ServiceCo, I think that could give you or that can give you a good hint of how do we expect such revenues to perform over or to behave over the next few years.

We do envisage, you know, an increase in revenues, which should be more or less along the lines of the one that we have experienced from 2024 to 2025. It's definitely supported by the almost EUR 3.2 billion worth of backlog.

Operator

Are cost-cutting measures included in this division?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Cost-cutting measures, efficiency program? Yes, it is indeed included in this division. Well, now, when approaching the efficiency program, you need to take into consideration two things. Well, the three things underlying or the two things underlying the efficiency program. On one hand, you know, what you called as cost cutting, efficiency in cost, so, doing more with less. That has got a direct impact, obviously, into the numbers. On the other hand, improvements in the way we procure, in way we achieve the procurement of the division, and that has got a more indirect impact on the business, and that impact increases as we keep on buying and keep on increasing our revenues. Answering your question, it is indeed embedded into the number.

When you think about it, think not only about data costs, but also about indirect costs as well.

Operator

Okay, we've got a question from Ignacio Domecq from JB Capital about the closing of the Iberdrola México acquisition. Can you give us some timing on transaction details and the level of debt at project level?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Timing-wise, I, you know, I reinforce the message. We will be closing it very soon. Leverage profile, as I said before, it changes. Such acquisition changes the profile of the company. I think it would change the profile of almost every single company. It does definitely change our profile. It does change our leverage profile. You know, once we've got the final numbers and calculations, we will come back to the market, we will show it to you guys. I do not expect, if you're asking for my expectations, I would not expect anything beyond 3.5 net debt-to-EBITDA in terms of leverage.

Once that, once we've got the final number, we will reinstate our leverage policy, which, again, would be totally biased towards achieving a solid capital structure and a solid financial discipline, which has been the principle by which we have governed or with which we have governed the company, you know, for the last 30 months.

Operator

In asset rotation, which assets are being considered for rotation in the short term? Any assets in Mexico?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

No no assets in Mexico are considered to be rotated at all. Asset rotation, as we disclosed in our Capital Markets Day back in October, I think, we're going to enter into an active policy of rotating assets. I think we did mention at the Capital Markets Day that we look forward to rotate part of our African Middle East platform, where we've got, you know, quite a large platform and recurring EBITDA. We look forward to rotate part of that. We look forward to rotate some other assets that we've got, which are brownfield as well, but definitely none of them is in Mexico.

Operator

In water concessions, what awards are currently in the pipeline for 2026?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

I'll pass it on to my CFO, Jose Olive, who will answer that one.

Jose Olive Pina
CFO, Cox ABG Group

Yes, regarding the water concessions that are in the pipeline, obviously, I cannot go into detail of the ones which we are competing, but we're very comfortable with the work that we're doing in that front, and convinced that, within 2026 or early 2027, we will be in a position to announce water concessions anywhere between half, 500 million to 1 million cubic meters per day.

Operator

Can you give us some details on the efficiency program?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Sure. I think it's in the page. I don't remember, I don't remember the page number. I think it's 14 or 13. I mean, it's with... In 2025, the efficiency program resulted in a net savings, net efficiencies of 35, page 13, EUR 35 or 34 million . Again, net, once we've discounted the EUR 11 million that, you know, of cost of executing such program. We do expect a net impact in 2026 of anywhere between 30 and 40. Again, whenever you think about the efficiency program, think about it in two ways. On one hand, you've got the data cost. On the other hand, we've got the efficiency or savings through a better way of achieving procurement and over an increased revenue line.

Operator

We've got a question from Alex Roncier from Bank of America. A lot of European utilities are interested in brownfield opportunities. Would you be looking at accelerating selling more some of your pipeline, perhaps in Spain, mostly, to crystallize value?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Thank you, Alex. We're definitely interested in, as I said, in entering into an asset rotation policy. Unfortunately, we do not have much in Spain, but we definitely, you know, are interested in such rotation policy. I think the starting point is going to be the African Middle East platform. That's where we're gonna start from. We've got another few, a few other assets, which we're thinking about rotating, but definitely the first one in the queue is the African Middle East, as we said in the Capital Markets Day.

Operator

Can you give us more visibility on expected assets with COD in 2026?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Sure. I think you've got, quite a good detail on page nine of the different assets, that would become COD, and when would they become COD. I think, you know, you've got good description over there.

Operator

We've got a question from Álvaro Soriano , from Alantra: What sort of organic growth should we expect from Iberdrola México once fully integrated?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Organic growth expected from Iberdrola México once integrated. Let me hand it over to the head of AssetCo, Javier García.

Javier García Arenas
Chief of Strategy and Corporate Development, Cox ABG Group

Thank you, Nacho. I mean, we already gave an overview in the Capital Markets Day about our expected growth in Mexico. Mainly the immediate growth will come through PV plus storage, as we stated there. Also, we are scouting and analyzing water opportunities. We are working already in some of those. Also, as a project of wind, and also taking into consideration some combined cycles or small turbines for self-consumptions or for the existing clients that we have in the country.

Operator

Thank you, Javier. We've got no more questions on the platform. Sorry, we've got one question from Fernando Lafuente, from Alantra: What is the outlook for the engineering business for 2026, both in terms of revenues and margins?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

I think in terms of revenues, I would expect. I don't know what to give guidance in any way or form, but looking at the backlog and looking at what we've been able to deliver from previous backlog, you can come up to, you know, to a good number of revenues, and that should be more or less accurate. You know, you should expect an increase from this year, from 2025, in line with previous increases. Just apply the ratio between, you know, executed and backlog in previous years, and you will get to something which is more or less reasonable. In terms of margin, I think margins, you know, we're...

The beauty of our backlog is that we've been able to grow it while maintaining a solid 10% margin overall. We expect that 10% margin to remain, if not improved. Bear also in mind that we're gonna reach, certainly not in 2026, but somewhere, a certain level of revenues in the service core business, at which we will start looking more at margins than revenues. Right now, our, I would say, margins are definitely on a solid 10%. It will come a time in which we will look mainly to increase those margins at a steady revenue.

Operator

As for the AssetCo, what should we expect in terms of new awards?

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Sorry, I was coughing. Can you say that again, please?

Operator

Yes. In the AssetCo, what can we expect in new awards? Fernando Lafuente.

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

In new awards, I, you know, I think, the biggest award is the Iberdrola acquisition, by the way. That's what, by far, the largest. You know, going into, both energy and water, Jose?

Jose Olive Pina
CFO, Cox ABG Group

Yes, as Nacho has rightly said, the biggest award is Iberdrola México, we continue to work extensively and very hard in winning other awards, specifically in the water sector. As I have mentioned before, we are currently working on possible awards, that is we expect to close during 2026, early 2027, for anywhere between 500 million to 1 million, Sorry, 500,000 to 1 million cubic meters per day in water.

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

I see another question coming from [Riddhi Vashi] : We notice a decrease in the EBITDA margins for both ServiceCo and AssetCo compared to 2024. Could you give us some color on the reasons behind this decrease? I think the decrease on AssetCo is very marginal. I think it's 1 or 2 base... 1% or 2%, 1 or 2, 100 or 200 basis points, which is quite marginal. I, you know, it's not, it's nothing that we, you know, puts us in or gets us uncomfortable or on alert. At the ServiceCo level, the decrease in EBITDA margins is due to one-offs. I'm more than happy to, you know, deepen into those on a bilateral basis.

Operator

We have a question from Ella Walker- Hunt from Citi: Can you give us an update on the projects you are embarking with AMEA Power?

Javier García Arenas
Chief of Strategy and Corporate Development, Cox ABG Group

Thank you, Ella. As I've said, before, when we're talking about water concessions, and we're talking about 500,000 cubic meters per day to 1 million cubic meters per day of new concessions, all of those are related with AMEA Power are, and are most of them, in the Africa/Middle East region.

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

There is a second part of that question. Not of that question, but, you know, Ella is asking: Key risks, one of the key risks with Cox shares is liquidity. Is there anything or toolbox that can be used to address this? There are indeed some tools that we've got to address it, but we need to go one by one. I mean, first of all, we need, you know, in the new, very soon, close the Iberdrola acquisition in Mexico, and then we will, you know, go, take out the capital markets, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. We will definitely use our toolkit in order to solve the liquidity issue with our shares.

We're fully aware, and I think extremely frustrated by the fact that the share price does not reflect the value of the company, the intrinsic value of the company. Rest with us, guys, that, you know, we will do whatever it's needed in order to improve that and use all of our toolkit in order to do so. Coming back to the question that I answered beforehand with regard to the EBITDA margins on, at ServiceCo level, when I, when I referred to the one-offs, I meant the one-offs that we experienced back in 2024, not in 2025. The EBITDA margin back in 2024 at ServiceCo level was somehow improved, as you could see in the presentation, in the full year presentation, full year results presentation that we performed this time last year.

That margin was somehow improved by the one-offs that we had experienced. This year, we're not, we have not experienced such one-offs, and therefore, the margin that you see over there is a pure operating margin. It's that is where the difference comes from.

Operator

Okay. Thank you, Nacho. There are no more questions on the platform. Thank you for joining, and bye.

Nacho Moreno Vicente
CEO, Cox ABG Group

Thank you very much, everyone, and, you know, fully available, the entire management team, to answer any other question which you may want to ask on a bilateral basis. Have a good day, and thank you very much again.

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