Good morning and welcome to Endesa 2025-2027 Business Plan Presentation. As you can see in the agenda for today, now on the screen, our CEO, José Bogas, will drive you through the pillars for the plan, while the CFO, Marco Palermo, will go into detail on the financials. After some closing remarks, we will open the Q&A session. Thank you, and now I will give the floor to José Bogas.
Thank you, Mar, and welcome to our 2024 Capital Markets Day. I would like to begin by remembering the victims of the recent climatic disaster, the DANA, that hit Valencia and other areas. Endesa has taken action to alleviate the impact, and we have approved aid for the affected municipalities. We hope that gradually the region can return to normality, but today is also an important occasion for us as we celebrate our 80th anniversary, and throughout this long journey, we have been characterized precisely by our close connection and engagement with the local areas and communities where we have carried out our activities. Endesa began its journey in 1944 in Ponferrada with the mission of electrifying a country, supporting the economic growth of rural areas, and lately leading the way towards a just energy transition focused on renewable energy, as we do today.
As we mark these 80 years, we remain dedicated to serving society, fostering economic growth, and continuing to lead the transition towards a sustainable energy future. Now, on slide number five, let's start by taking a look at the solid progress on the strategic objective committed to last year. Once again, we have proved the strength of our integrated business model. We can now confirm that we expect to reach by year-end an EBITDA in the high end of the range communicated last year, while in terms of net ordinary income, we will exceed the target, reaching EUR 1.8 billion. We have progressed in the partnership model with the sale of a share of two gigawatts of solar assets to Masdar. We hope that this transition will be formalized in this fourth quarter, helping us to achieve an outstanding free cash flow by year-end.
This will help us to end the year with a net debt ranging from €9 to €10 billion below our initial estimate. These remarkable results will allow us to ensure value creation for our shareholders. Let's now take a look at the current energy context before focusing on the strategic drivers of the plan. The energy sector in Europe is currently facing major challenges to develop an energy system that has to be affordable, secure, and sustainable. To this end, it is essential to accelerate widespread electrification of demand, supported by emission-free generation technologies. We believe this is the best way to combine a great degree of predictability of the European energy system, a reduction of energy price volatility, ensuring energy affordability, and the promotion of a much-needed economic recovery and reindustrialization.
These principles are not only being reaffirmed as we progress through the energy transition, but are also reinforced by plans at both national and global EU level. Turning now to the climate context, I am now on slide number eight. Last September, the Spanish government presented the update of the Energy and Climate Integrated National Plan, committing itself to increasingly ambitious climate targets for 2030, as can be seen in emission reduction, renewable energies, and energy efficiency, among others. These targets imply investment worth EUR 308 billion in the period 2021 to 2030, or a 28% increase over the previous plan, as part of a broader strategy to reduce emissions and transition to a more sustainable energy system.
This new plan places greater emphasis on fostering first electrification, which now amounts to 17% of the total expenditure, a more aggressive expansion in wind and solar capacity, as well as storage, and a strong drive for network enhancement and extension. The lion's share of the total investment will come from the private sector, that will require adequate regulation and concrete actions to achieve the expected results. Going into the details concerning the electricity sector in slide number 9, when it comes to the electricity sector, the new PNIEC foresees the commissioning of 84 gigawatts of new renewable capacity and an increase in demand of 55 terawatt-hours compared to 2023. These targets require, on the one hand, speeding up permitting and, on the other, encouraging, with specific action, electrification and increasing electricity demand. Attracting foreign demand is key to developing renewables capacity and to the growth of the economy.
Moreover, in terms of security of supply, this plan provides for the commissioning of some 15 gigawatts of storage and the retention of the current fleet of CCGTs. In this scenario, the development of a capacity payment mechanism becomes a crucial issue. Deep diving in this increase in demand electrification, and now on slide number 10, this plan contemplates a strong growth in transport demand, in line with the target of more than five million electric vehicles. Spain is lagging considerably behind other European countries, and it is essential to develop a robust network of public charging points. It also foresees a limited 5% growth in residential and services, where electrification expansion may be offset by energy efficiency measures. The two key aspects are the 48% growth in industrial demand and the development of the grid, which are closely linked, to be detailed in the following slide.
It is important to point out, as described on slide 11, that the current industrial access requests would support electrification in Spain. The sector has received grid connection requests for around 50 gigawatts in the last four years. Around 40 of these requests have been awarded grid connection. Clearly, there is a strong interest within the industry to invest in Spain. Assuming a reasonable rate of success in the commissioning of these facilities, industrial demand increase would be enough to meet the 2030 target announced by the PNIEC. This will imply a growing need for energy solutions and infrastructure to serve these new requirements. This presents a unique opportunity for reindustrialization and economic growth in our country. By capitalizing on competitive energy costs and a decarbonized energy mix, it is possible to attract new demand for several sectors.
Finally, a few clarifications should be added to the debate that has recently emerged over the false assumption that grid development is a driver of system cost increase. In fact, investment in grid expansion actually helped to lower the excess tariff paid by all customers as a result of higher industrial demand. On slide number 12, an example of this demand is data centers, which are expected to become a major driver of electricity demand in the coming years. Spain, thanks to its strategic location between Europe and Africa, along with strong connectivity, a robust electrical grid, and an abundant supply of renewable cheap energy, is uniquely positioned to become an ideal hub for data centers. We have been an active player in the data center market for some time now.
Our value proposition integrates the entire process, from finding a location through the permitting process, facilitating grid connection to the supply of energy. We are well positioned throughout the value chain to capture new opportunities. However, we must recall that grid capacity is a critical bottleneck. It is crucial to enhance the regulatory framework to ease the expansion of the grid. This is a priority that the PNIEC perfectly reflects, as can be seen in the details of slide number 13. The plan is aimed at more than EUR 52 billion of investment in grid by 2030, or around EUR 5 billion per annum. This amount more than doubles the current level. And if we consider the backlog already accumulated, it would be necessary to triple this amount for the remaining decade. The modernization and expansion of the grid are critical to achieve a sustainable and secure energy future.
This requires facilitating the integration of renewable energy, improving grid resilience and market security, and increasing capacity to meet the growing demand driven by the electrification of key sectors. The requirements for these incentives are clear. First, an adequate return on investment in line with other nearby countries. Second, to raise the current investment cap that is not aligned to the investment foreseen on the PNIEC. And third, the improvement of the incentive system and streamlining of permitting. We confirmed the pillars of our strategy announced last year, and I am on slide number 15. Value generation will remain being the primary driver of our capital allocation strategy. Consequently, we will continue to channel our investment towards opportunities that offer the optimal balance of risks and reward.
We will maintain a strict operating cost discipline to improve cash generation and financial performance, confirming as well our commitment to address climate change issues. Together, our strategic pillars will allow us to optimize the return profile of the company, allowing the maximization of value creation. Let's now deep dive into the capital allocation on slide number 16. Starting with the recently announced acquisition from Acciona of 626 megawatts of operating hydro assets. This acquisition represents a significant investment in high-quality renewable assets, most of which are manageable. It allows us to rebalance our generation mix following the transaction announced last July, in which we sold our stake in Endesa Green Power Spain Solar, a company with 2 gigawatts of operating solar plants in Spain.
The scope of this acquisition of hydro assets offers significant operating synergies and is fully in line with our integrated positioning strategy, allowing us to optimize our mix profile. The transaction is expected to be completed in the first half of 2025, and the EBITDA contribution is expected to exceed EUR 100 million. On slide 17, let's now turn to the investment of this new plan. We plan to invest EUR 9.6 billion to maximize returns, taking advantage of our integrated position, focusing on decarbonization and network, where we will devote around 80% of total plan.
The share of investment on grid will increase by around 45% to EUR 4 billion compared to the old plan, liberating on the necessary improvement in regulation. In renewables, the plan contemplates investment of EUR 3.7 billion, including the previously mentioned hydro assets transaction, which will be devoted to new wind and solar capacity, partially supported by the partnership model.
Finally, the plan does not envisage investment in new capacity non-mainland systems until the outcome of the auction is known and regulatory visibility is assured. On slide number 18, the upcoming challenges in grid management require an investment plan to ensure our infrastructure can support growing electricity demand and achieve sustainable energy. Key drivers include meeting the Energy Transition PNIEC 2030 goals, expanding the network to accommodate new demand, and addressing existing critical grid issues to ensure reliability and efficiency. A focus on quality improvement will involve modernizing the grid and introducing new technologies to enhance performance, such as increasing remote control devices in medium and low-voltage networks. Additionally, digitalization and network modernization are crucial, involving the renewal of smart meters and enhancing remote monitoring and control capabilities.
This significant investment plan, amounting to approximately EUR 4 billion, underscores the commitment to upgrading and expanding grid infrastructure to meet future challenges. On slide number 19, grids are fundamental to the energy transition, and of course, we are fully committed to accelerating investment. For this purpose, some improvements in the regulatory scheme are essential. First, a financial return uplift to a rate of 7.5%. Second, the increase of the regulatory investment cap. And last, a better incentives scheme using a more rational benchmarking. The aforementioned increase in CapEx will lead the regulated asset base cap to grow by 6% from the current EUR 11.4 billion, transforming into higher quality standards and service rate for our customers.
In the context of the remuneration framework update in euros, on slide number 20, the energy policy guidelines provided in the ministerial order published in late October is a step in the right direction for setting adequate remuneration for the distribution network. In fact, this document emphasizes the complexity of global competition for financial resources, where the local regulator should encourage the expansion of electricity grid to meet new demand and integrate additional renewable energy capacity. If the methodology used by other European countries were applied to Spain, the nominal pre-tax financial remuneration rate would be within a range of 7.3%-8.7%. Likewise, the average spread of European regulators' current rate of return over 10 years sovereign bond exceeds 500 basis points.
In terms of renewables, on slide number 21, we aim to invest €3.7 billion in the next three years, adding around three gigawatts of new capacity, including the previously mentioned acquisition, with the rebalancing of generation mix toward higher value-added assets. We pursue the rollout of wind projects, although somewhat slowed down due to the complexity of the permitting process. We will also devote investment to repowering in order to increase plant efficiency, reducing generation costs on hydro and wind. Likewise, despite the loss of relative weight in favor of other technologies, solar continues to represent a relevant 15% of our investment that turns into 1.1 gigawatts. With the addition of this new capacity, renewable energy output is expected to reach around 25 terawatt-hours, thereby reducing the overall energy sourcing costs supplied to our fixed-price customers.
Lastly, we will maintain a selective capital allocation criteria in our investment, leveraging on a partnership model to optimize this return profile. Moving to the next slide. Regarding environmental sustainability, we will keep working to reduce our direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions according to the Paris Agreement. In terms of emission abatement target, we estimate around 74% reduction from the 2017 baseline by the end of 2030, on track to meet the net-zero ambition for 2040. We reaffirm our commitment to phasing out the remaining coal facility on the Balearic Islands by 2027, subject to the approval of the authorities, which today is still available for security of supply reasons. When it comes to customer business drivers, I am on slide 23.
Over the next three years, total sales are expected to remain stable, while we foresee a shift in the customer mix with a decrease of index sales in favor of fixed-price sales, in particular on B2C. Our commitment to customer service will remain at the forefront, seeking to promote long-term loyalty through an improved customer experience and high service standards. To this end, our commercial strategy is based on the knowledge of our customers, enabling us to foster tailored bundled offers second to advanced customer segmentation and channels remix, targeting high-value-added services and products deriving from new and more sophisticated customer needs. And third, always with the aim of promoting highly electrified behavior among our customer base. As a result, we expect to attract a larger number of liberalized customers, increasing by 6% our customer base and improving the profitability of our portfolio.
And now, let me hand over to Marco, who will explain the main financial target of this plan, of this new plan.
Thank you, Pepe, and good morning, everyone. I would like to detail the evolution of the main financial KPIs and targets of the plan period on slide 25. The strategic lines that Pepe has just presented drive to a sustainable growth in the main financial targets along the plan, within a context of already normalized market prices that are reflected into the plan assumptions. EB ITDA will show a 4% compound annual growth rate increase over the period, while net ordinary income will increase annually by 7% versus the 2024 level.
It should be noted that for 2024, we estimate to close with an EBITDA of EUR 5.2 billion at the high end of the range and a net ordinary income of EUR 1.8 billion, exceeding, in this case, the targets set last year. Finally, we also expect a slight net debt expansion to EUR 10-11 billion, mainly as a result of higher investments in distribution. In the following slide, we will take a closer look on how our strategy of capital allocation will be converted in returns. Page 26. EBITDA is expected to grow by 13% over the plan, with a positive contribution from all business lines. Grid EBITDA increases by EUR 300 million on the back of higher investment, assuming the necessary materialization of the regulatory improvements aforementioned.
Generation and supply as a whole shows a sound 10% increase resulting from the successful integrated management of the business, where the retail business is resilient to a lower electricity prices scenario, leveraging on lower sourcing costs and better customer mix, and investment in renewables will lead to an EBITDA expansion along the plan. Worth to mention that 2027 is not penalized by the 1.2% levy, as we don't assume the extension beyond 2024, where the impact is neutralized by the positive effect of the social bonus settlement to be booked in the fourth quarter of 2024. We will deep dive into these effects in the following slides.
On networks, slide 27, grid EBITDA is expected to grow a sound 16%, reaching EUR 2.2 billion in 2027, on the back of a RAB increase for EUR 700 million due to the substantial increase in investment that will drive a margin improvement of around EUR 300 million. These numbers assume that the new remuneration parameters translate into an increase in the regulated WACC to 7.5%, and the regulatory investment cap will be uplifted. Now, on slide 28, generation and supply EBITDA will increase by 12%, up to EUR 3.7 billion, explained by first, an increase of free power margin by EUR 0.1 billion, with higher inframarginal volumes and better customer mix, more than compensating lower price scenario and the moderation of the short position results. Second, the ongoing recovery of gas business by EUR 0.1 billion. I will deep dive into the evolution of both on the next slides.
And moreover, third, an increase of other margin by about EUR 0.1 billion. Analyzing a little more in detail the evolution of free power margin on slide 29, sales to liberalized customers will reduce fundamentally by the lower indexed sales, while the fixed prices sales slightly increase to 56 terawatt-hour, representing more than 80% of total free sales. Our investments in clean energy result in a higher share of fixed sales covered by our own emission-free production, representing now around 90% of total at the end of the period. In 2027, free power unitary margin is expected to slightly increase to around EUR 56 megawatt-hour, mainly as a consequence of first, generation margin is expected to show a positive evolution, mostly explained by higher volumes in inframarginal technologies that more than compensate lower price scenario.
Second, supply margin is expected to remain stable along the plan, supported mainly by better customer mix and neutral impact from downward pricing scenario, as lower underlying revenues will be mostly offset by the reduction of procurement costs. And finally, short position will progressively return to normal levels. Moving to the next slide, let's focus on the evolution of the gas margin. Total gas sales will show a steep increase by 34% due to the termination of Qatar and Nigeria. While the other gas margin will show a sound increase thanks to the competitiveness of our procurement contracts. On fixed cost evolution, I'm now on slide 31. Efficiencies remain the core of our strategy, allowing us to maintain the fixed cost base flat along the plan, with efficiencies totaling around EUR 200 million, absorbing inflation effect and the growth embedded in the plan.
These efficiencies are built over a cost containment plan on the back of more efficient organization, with flat average headcount, processes reshaping, and digitalization, among others. It is worth mentioning that these strict cost containment measures are already bearing fruit in 2024, meeting the target of reducing costs versus previous years to EUR 2.1 billion despite inflation. On slide 32 now, net ordinary income will result at around EUR 2.2 billion by 2027. The EBITDA to net ordinary income conversion ratio increases from around 35% to 37% in 2027 due to the following effects. D&A is expected to increase by EUR 300 million, with higher amortization, mainly due to growing investment effort focused on distribution and renewables, and to a lesser extent, CapEx amortization in nuclear and non-mainland, increasing due to aging fleet with shorter residual life. On the other hand, bad debt provision will return to more normalized figures.
Net financial charges slightly improve due to the lower cost of debt. Taxes increase driven by better results. And finally, flat evolution of minorities since the effect of the partnership model is expected to be quite limited. Concerning the cash flow generation and the evolution of net debt on slide 33 now, we expect to end 2024 with a net debt of around €9-10 billion. Sources of funds along the business plan will be close to €12 billion, mainly driven by a strong FFO generation. Gross debt is expected to remain stable in the range of €10-11 billion in 2027. Finally, this strategic plan leads us to achieve increasingly solid credit ratio. And now I will hand over to Pepe, who will conclude this presentation.
Thank you, Marco. In relation to the remuneration of our shareholder policy on slide number 35, we confirm the dividend policy on the basis of a 70% payout of net ordinary income, providing a floor of EUR 1 per share along the plan. For 2024, given the good results obtained in nine months 2024 and the visibility for the year end, the estimated dividend would be EUR 1.2 per share, 20% higher than that paid in the previous year and 9% above the target committed to this year. As usual, the dividend will be paid in full in one installment and in cash. 2024 interim dividend will amount to EUR 0.5 per share to be paid on the 8th of January 2025. This dividend policy combines a sustainable and attractive remuneration linked to earning evolutions with a healthy balance sheet, which allows us to take advantage of future investment opportunities.
Operational progress is reflected in our target for the next three years. I am on slide number 36. Both EBITDA and net ordinary income present a solid growth over the plan in a declining price scenario and based on increased investment with a greater focus on network development, as we have explained throughout the presentation. I would also like to point out that this three-year investment plan represents an unprecedented record for Endesa in the last decade, reaching almost EUR 10 billion. It is fully adapted to the new energy context and provides enough flexibility to further accelerate investment, always with the aim of successfully meeting the challenges that the energy transition will bring by the end of the decade. To end this presentation on slide 37, I would like to share some closing remarks. We are in a pivotal moment to achieve the 2030 energy transition target.
To ensure success, it is imperative that regulation play a supportive role, providing a framework to encourage investment. The new strategic plan lays the foundation for seizing the opportunities in this context, addressing the dynamic challenges and capitalizing on the emerging opportunities. Let me stress once again that we are in the best sector at the best time. Going further, we enjoy an ample financial capacity to face an acceleration in our investment, allowing us to take advantage of emerging opportunities to generate value for our stakeholders. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our strategic update presentation. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are ready to take questions.
The telephone Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press star five on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star five again on your telephone keypad. Please ensure your phone is not muted.
Okay, we start now with the Q&A session. The first question comes from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Please, Alberto, go ahead.
Thank you, Mar. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll stick to three, and I think all very clear. Can I just ask you how much is work in progress on productive CapEx? Out of the €9.6 billion you're planning to spend, how much of the CapEx does not really contribute to 2027 earnings? I suspect all that you spend in 27 in both grids and renewables, and most likely a big chunk of 2026 networks as well, and maybe some renewables. So I was estimating around three, three and a half billion of unproductive CapEx. And if that's right, how much, if you stop investing, is that an extra EUR 335 million EBITDA and much more in income going forward? So it would be great to see how much you're planting the seeds for future growth beyond 27 already today.
The second question is on power grids. Can you explain how did you translate the national energy plan, the PNIEC, into the CapEx? Do you think that the CapEx you put is conservative, is in line, is optimistic? I mean, is it consistent with the 7.5% return you're assuming? What happens if returns become 6.5%? Does that CapEx go down dramatically or goes down proportionally? And the last question is on retail. This year, at least in the first six months of the year, we saw churn rate spike into 20%. Can you tell us in retail what churn rate you are assuming and what power demand growth you are assuming? Thank you so much.
Okay, thank you, Alberto. I will try to answer the second and really give you some color on the third question. And then Marco will answer the work in progress. But let me say that how much CapEx doesn't get EBITDA in this plan, I think it's lower than the figure that you have given us. But Marco will answer. Regarding the power grid, PNIEC and CapEx, well, first of all, let me say that as we have said, we are waiting for the signals of the government. When I say the signal of the government, I should underline the very important signal that the government has launched for all the utilities and all the distributors.
That is the ministerial order that gives some guidelines to the CNMC just to calculate the WACC or the financial tax remuneration or financial rate remuneration. I think that as we have said in our plan, we have considered a 7.5% financial rate remuneration. We will be comfortable with a lower financial rate remuneration if other issues or other items of the remuneration methodology of the distribution are improved. Let me say that what we have focused is the signal in the 7.5%, which is the average of the rest of the countries, European countries to which we could compare. But having said that, the total amount of money that we receive could be coming from 7% plus other things. I don't see that we are going just to, if we get this 7.5% or something similar, reduce the investment even more. We could increase the investment.
We could increase the investment because, as we have explained, well, the PNIEC gave us the figure of EUR 5.2 billion per year. That means that we need to double the current figure that we have. If we take into account the backlog that we have during this decade, that means that it should be needed almost to triple this figure. We will see, and we are prepared just to, with a good remuneration framework, regulatory framework, we will be prepared just to increase even more this investment. With regard to the retail and the churn rate, you are right, the churn rate is something around 25%.
What I think is that in the future, this churn rate could be reduced and could be reduced because during the year 2024, what we have seen is a special situation, mainly in the month of March, April, May, in which the prices, power pool prices were very low. And then this incentivized some small suppliers just to be a little bit more aggressive. But I think that in the future, with a price, power pool price normalized, this churn rate will decrease. Even more, in our plan, we focus in maintaining our sales and increasing the B2C customers. So, well, we feel comfortable with this, not looking for increase in our total sales. We are reducing, let's say, the so-called index power sales, and we are increasing the fixed B2C customers. And now, Marco.
Thanks, Pepe. Ciao, Alberto. So question number one, work in progress. No, the figures are much lower than that because let's go by business. Distribution, you should think that approximately we put in operation yearly 85% of the investment that we start. So we put it at disposal, so we get the remuneration that. So the 15% is what actually goes to the next year.
So we are talking here about, I don't know, EUR 200 million or something like this, probably a bit more if we increase investments. And in the case of renewables, it's almost the same. I guess that also there are another couple of hundred million of unproductive, I would say, investment that then you see in the next, in the following year. So, I mean, all in all, it's a figure that it's closer to EUR 500 million more than the three you were talking about.
On power grids, I guess that Pepe has been very clear here. We, of course, increase investments, but we are not even close to double it. If we have to recover the space, what the PNIEC is saying, we should triple it. That's why there is still space in our balance sheet, depending on how things will evolve. In terms of retail, actually, the churn has been even higher in 2024. It's been close to 25%. Now, what we see along the plan is a slight reduction till 2021,
I would say, at the end of the plan. Because of all the new regulation that is in place regarding also the phone calls and so on, but also because of the constant power price, basically, with less volatility. Regarding the growth of demand, we do see in 2024, 2%. We think then we are planning along the plan approximately 3% growth in power demand. Thanks.
Thank you, Alberto. Next question comes from Pedro Alves from CaixaBank.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Two, if I may. The first one on capital allocation and shareholder remuneration. I think your plan leaves again a conservative balance sheet. So the question is, why not increasing more the dividend and whether the plan leaves room for M&A options or just flexibility to increase organic investments in regulated businesses? So if we have more visibility over the next months from the regulator or early 2025, could you take more action on dividends in the next full year presentation if conditions for investments in grids are not there? And the second question is, if you can quantify- [audio distortion]
Okay, thank you, Pedro. I will try to answer the first one, and then Marco will answer the rest of the questions. With regard to the capital allocation, first of all, let me say that Spain is immersed, I would say, in an energy transition that requires a very high level of investment. That is clear. I would like to say that this level of investment is a unique opportunity for any utility that is prepared for it, that is prepared for it. In this plan, we have increased investment 8%, reaching almost EUR 10 billion, mainly in distribution, something around 45%. On the other hand, if you want, we continue with the partnership model in new solar and wind that reduces our investment effort while we continue to control the asset and maintain 100% of the generation through competitive PPAs.
With a leverage of 1.8 times, it is clear that we still have an additional investment capacity to that already contemplated in the strategic plan. This additional capacity investment could be something around EUR 3-4 billion, taking into account what I have said about the investment required by the network, by the grid. We have a level of dividends that remain, at least in my opinion, aligned with the sector average, allowing us to offer an attractive dividend yield. Having said that, our objective is not to reach 1.8 times the leverage in the year 2027 and also along this period plan. So that means that when we will have more visibility, we should decide if we increase this investment or really to give back this money to our shareholders. That is very, very clear for us.
But again, what I say is, on the one hand, the level of dividends allows us just to think that we could give to the shareholders a reasonable or attractive yield. And on the other hand, we maintain the possibility of increasing our investment in, as I have said, this energy transition that requires a very high level of investment. We will see in the future what to do. And Marco.
Yeah. Thank you, Pedro. Basically, on dividends and on CapEx, as Pepe correctly mentioned, I mean, we still have space to increase our investment, and we will do, but if there are the right conditions. There are so many. There is so much volatility, I would say, in terms of rumors on the 1.2% Levy, not yet clear visibility on the final remuneration of the distribution. So, I mean, still we have to see.
But I would like to remind that there is still a lot of space there. And also the fact that we bid that there are also potential CapEx on the islands, on the generation on the islands. We made a bid, but of course, it will take time just to know whether we'll be awarded and whether it will be the right condition to invest there. So also there, but we have to take this also into account. M&A, it's only if by chance, like it was the case, we are lucky enough just to find a very, very attractive package in this case of the hydro, but I would say it's not a lever of this business plan. And in terms of supply, the second question, I mean, our supply margin basically will be constant on the plan.
I mean, we will probably end between 17 and 18 EUR per megawatt hour, and this is what we think we will maintain also along the plan. And in terms of short position there, yes, you're right, there will be a change because actually what we are somehow booking this year is approximately 300 million EUR, but we are planning to have this amount, half of this amount along the plan. So going down also because of our short position, we will produce more, we will sell the same, so our short position will tend to close. Thank you.
Thank you, Pedro. We have now Javier Garrido from JP Morgan.
Thanks, Mar. Hello, good morning, everyone. I have a couple of questions, if I may. The first one is, what is your assumption for the realized retail price?
Because you are mentioning in the slides the wholesale price assumption, which is totally in line with the forwards, but what are you assuming as the level of prices that you are actually pricing in your retail offering? Is it still in line with the 67-70 EUR/MWh lower assuming before? Is it different? The second question is on your gas margins. You mentioned that you are looking for an increase from 3-6 EUR/MWh because of two drivers, mainly two drivers, the end of the Qatar-Nigeria contracts and the increase in retail clients. Can you split what is the impact or if it's easier mechanically, where would your margin go just because of the cancellation of the Qatar-Nigeria contracts? Where do you go from the 3 EUR/MWh that you are forecasting for 2024?
And the third question is on your plans to add wind farm capacity. We heard from Enel yesterday that there is a sort of strategic shift in priorities from solar into wind, and that could be seen in the capacity addition plans for Endesa. But how safe are these capacity additions, particularly when it comes down to permitting? Particularly, you have very ambitious plans for developments in Galicia, 800 megawatts, if I remember correctly. Is this still included in your plan, and how comfortable are you with the probability of development of this portfolio? Thank you.
Okay, Javier, let me try to give you some color on the third question.
Yeah, what we are facing now in Spain, especially just because of the low prices that we have had in the first month of this year, 2024, there's a problem with the solar that really doesn't get the remuneration that makes attractive the investment in solar. That is the reason why we have decided just to move to shift from solar to wind. Having said that, we have the project of Pego and the project of Andorra in Teruel, in which it's a mix of wind and solar and batteries that give a reasonable return of the project as a whole. So that is the wind and the solar that we are contemplating in our plan. It is true that we are facing some problems in Galicia with the permitting, and not only the permitting, even most important is the judicialization of these processes in Galicia.
And we will see what happens in the future. That means that we have to delay the deployment of these wind power plants, and we will see what happens. But let me say that we are really thinking about that in the future, we will build or really look for different possibilities of M&A in the future to continue growing or increasing our renewables portfolio. And we will see what happens with this problem in Galicia. Marco.
Hello, Javier. So on retail price, actually, more than in the 67, that was the last plan, and now we are more in the 60 range. So we are planning 62 in 2027. And therefore, also the retail prices somehow will adapt to this lower price along the years. But at the very same time, it will be also a cheaper fuel, cheaper sources. So basically, that's why the marginality stays there.
For the rest of renewables, given that we put online more capacity, that's why we recover EBITDA. On gas margin, actually, yes, we go from three to six. We are planning to go to six. Actually, if you then run the numbers and multiply, we are talking here about EUR 300 million of contribution. Half of it is coming from the retail sales, and half of it is coming from the rest of the gas, given that still we will enjoy. We will reduce our capacity from six, our supply from six BCM to four at the end of the plan, but still with good condition, good price conditions. I guess, I mean, we have visibility on those margins. We hedge those margins. I mean, it's something that makes us this EUR 300 million from both retail and the rest makes us very, very comfortable.
And on wind farm capacity, no, Galicia is not yet there. I mean, it's not there anymore because of the problems that we have. But we are counting on the rest of the wind because those are transition projects and they were approved. There is a strong local support. So at least till the end of the plan, there is visibility we should be able. Thanks.
Thank you, Javier. We move now to the next analyst, Jorge Guimarães from JB Capital. Please, Jorge, go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I have two questions, if I may. The first one is a follow-up on your reference to the EBIT generated by the assets you just bought to Acciona.
You mentioned an EBITDA of more than EUR 100 million, and I was wondering what OpEx you are considering for this EBITDA because the EBITDA reference I had for these assets was around EUR 60 million. This is the first one. The second one is regarding the revenue tax here in Spain. So the consensus is that it will drop because there is no consensus among parties. But isn't there? What is the risk that effectively the government tries to extend it one year more through a Royal Decree- Law in the last days of the year? Thank you very much.
Okay, Jorge, I will try just to answer the second one, and then Marco will answer the first one. Well, I agree with you that everything is very confusing now here in Spain in relation with regulation on this kind of taxation.
Let me say that we have heard yesterday or this very early in the morning, this new agreement of the Socialist Party with the other parties in the sense of try to extend in a new royal decree law, try to extend this tax. I should say, first of all, that this new royal decree law should be approved in the Parliament, and then that means in the Congress, and then that means that if nothing changed, it would be impossible just to extend this tax. On the other hand, the government has launched a note in which states that they maintain the agreement with Junts. That agreement means not to tax energy companies that maintain their actual investment commitment in decarbonization. So it is a little confused.
In any case, what we think is that there are many reasons why these taxes shouldn't be approved, starting because it's discriminatory compared to the European players, introduce a competitive disadvantage, etc., etc., etc., and most important for me is that it is time not for taxation, it is time for investment if we want to reach the energy transition plan. We are confident on the one hand just because of the position of the different political parties, and on the other hand, just because even the government, what is telling now is that they maintain the agreement with these political parties in the sense that the companies that maintain their actual investment commitment in decarbonization are not going to be taxed.
Thank you, Jorge, so question number one regarding the EBITDA and the costs. I mean, we are assuming round numbers and marginality of those assets. I mean, first of all, just to put in perspective, those were assets that we owned years ago. Those are assets basically all with modulation capacity, so it's an affluent. There is even a pumping inside. Third, those assets are exactly in the area where we have power plants on top of them or below them. Having said that, we expect a marginality of EUR 110 million per annum from these assets, and the costs of those assets are even below EUR 10 million. That's why the over EUR 100 million EBITDA expected. In terms of tax or revenues, I mean, also for this reason, we have ranges in our numbers projected in the plan. Thanks.
Thank you, Jorge. Next question comes from Manuel Palomo from Exane BNP.
Hi, good morning, Mar. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is, as usual, on the power margins. In the slide number 40, you showed that in 2024, forward curve was at 106 EUR per MWh, but you got a 55 EUR per MWh free power margin. In 2027, you assume 62 EUR per MWh price, but assume that the margin will grow from 55 to 56. How do you plan to achieve it? And I'm curious particularly when, in principle, what you've done in this plan is that you have downgraded the amount of renewable megawatts that, if I'm not wrong, have moved down to EUR 3.7 billion CapEx from 4.3. That would be my first question.
Second question is about the CapEx to RAB. Are you assuming, similar to Enel, a higher CapEx to RAB conversion, which is leading to a significant increase in the RAB over the period?
And if so, what are you expecting to be the drivers for such improvement? Lastly, I'd like to ask about the evolution of the debt. Compared to the previous plan, you assume a EUR 2 billion increase from EUR 8 billion to EUR 9 billion by full year 2026. Now it's EUR 10 billion to EUR 11 billion by full year 2027, despite CapEx only increased by EUR 0.7 billion. Could you help me to build the bridge? And if I may, there is another one, which is about the minorities. In one of the slides, I think it's slide 32, you talk about Spanish minorities. However, I think that you're assuming some partnership in renewables. So are you assuming any increase in the minorities, or how can this be explained? Thank you very much for taking questions.
Okay, I think that Marco will answer you. But let me say about the power margin that you are right in the sense that we have reduced the power price in the future slightly, but we have reduced that a lot compared with the old plan. And we maintain our margin, power margin around 55-56 at the end of the period. First of all, it's the one that we have got in the year 2024.
We are comfortable with this margin based on the mix of customers that we will have at the end of the period, mainly. And also just because the sourcing costs will be lower than the one that we have this year. So Marco could explain a little bit more in detail this, but we don't feel we are not preoccupied with this margin. Even more, I think that we have been a little bit conservative in this margin. Marco.
Yes, thank you, Manuel. On question number two regarding the CapEx that goes to RAB, actually, it's approximately EUR 3 billion, slightly less goes to RAB in the plan. Regarding the question on minorities, the plan is actually embedding partial partnership on some of the projects. Actually, it's something that we are somehow using to give us flexibility. So it could be a bit more if we need more capital. It could be less or zero if we do not need capital. And on the minorities line, of course, there are not only whatever we give to minorities, but it is also what comes. So I mean, basically, that's why we are planning not to have a big impact on minorities. And regarding the debt, I'm not sure that I got correctly the question.
But basically, I mean, we are ending 2024 with a situation that is probably better than what we forecasted. And we are planning a very strong FFO generation along the plan. And that's why it gives us enough just to cover the cash investments, so the CapEx, and as well as the acquisition of the Acciona assets and the dividend that we are planning. So the increase in debt is only EUR 1 billion and brings us into a position of net debt to EBITDA of 1.8x leverage, basically. Thank you.
Next question is coming from Fernando Lafuente from Alantra.
Hello, good morning to everyone. Three quick questions. The first one is on a follow-up on the question on minorities and the billion that you are including in your cash flow to get to the EUR 10 billion to EUR 11 billion debt in 2027. It's the Project Ra itself, or it's a new partnership? Because I guess the one that you announced will be closed this year, if I'm not wrong.
The second question is on the dividend policy. I've seen that it has changed, or it has not changed compared to previous plan. Looking to Enel's presentation yesterday, they upgraded the floor, the dividend floor for their plan. But I see that yours is still at EUR 1. What are the reasons, or what are the reasons for not having increased it, at least to the EUR 1.2 that you are paying this year? And the third one, it's on networks and a follow-up on one of Pepe's comments about the potential improvements of these 7% plus improvements. Can you please give us an indication on what these improvements could be and how could they affect your overall return in the networks? Thank you so much.
Hello, Fernando. Let me say about the dividend policy, even Marco will explain a little bit more. I would say that we have maintained our EUR 1 per share because we feel comfortable that we will get the 1.2, 1.3, and 1.5. So that is something just to take into account some disaster, let's say, that we really don't see in the future. With regard to the networks, well, what I have said is that if you take into account the PNIEC, well, we would need just to double, even triple the investment in the future. So with a good regulatory remuneration framework, we will be able just to increase step by step because it is impossible just to do one day to the other to increase this investment in network.
We think that at least with the framework that we have taken into account in our plan, the remuneration and the profitability of the network would be something aligned with this profitability of other countries. You should take into account that we are going just to be involved in Europe in the sense that the capital allocation will be to the countries, to the system in which the remuneration is more attractive. And we belong to a group. So what we are looking for is just to have the same remuneration of the surrounding countries.
Thank you, Fernando. Question number one, minorities. Is it RA? Yes, it is RA. And we are planning it should be somehow that we are planning to receive actually to close the transaction by year-end. And then, of course, that will account as minorities.
Then for the rest of the partnership, I mean, it's something that will be in our assumption done in 2027 eventually. So the decision will be taken there. So eventually, that would account in 2028. In terms of dividend policy, I mean, if you rise basically the EUR 1.3 becomes like a fixed dividend there, it's not a floor protection. This is our policy. Dividend policy is payout of 70%. That's what it is. I mean, we decided just to leave the euro and to touch as less as possible in order not to change the dividend policy. And in terms of networks improvement, I mean, basically, what we plugged in the plan was, of course, an increase in the regulatory cap because with our investment, we go over the cap limit that is currently foreseen and that is currently allowed.
We go over in 2027, so there is all the time just to lift it. We, of course, also are planning and plugging in the plan the full recognition of the audited investment. That looks like a normal and basic thing, but it has not been the case if we look at the past. Now things have changed, and so we are in a new situation. So we decided just to plug into the business plan. And in terms of improvement into incentive system or in the remuneration, basically, all in all, all these things should bring us to our remuneration of 7.5.
So whether then this is a remuneration, I don't know, a lower remuneration and a better incentive scheme, or the opposite, a better remuneration, and then maintaining a lower incentive scheme, I mean, it should be seen. But all in all, the sum of this goes to the 7.5%. Thanks.
We have now Robert Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley.
Hi, good morning. So let me just follow up on a few of the themes already mentioned. So firstly, your parent company Enel talked a lot about M&A optionality yesterday and seeing a buyer's market for renewables or increasing distributions to shareholders by the end of 2025. Does this also apply to Endesa? As others have noticed, your implied net debt to EBITDA by 2027 of sub two times seems quite lean. Secondly, if I understand the previous answers correctly regarding network CapEx versus allowed return, is it the EUR 4 billion guided CapEx will be spent regardless, well, almost regardless of the allowed return? But this could be higher if the regulator provides the right incentive. Is this the message? And then lastly, third question.
You talked about the moving parts of the free power margin, but I do notice you only have 40% of the 2027 sales already hedged. And so I was wondering what gives you the confidence in that 56 EUR per megawatt hour that's in the guidance. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Rob. M&A optionality versus increase of the dividends. Here, basically, what we are seeing is that there are opportunities for increasing our investments. And I relate also question number one attaching to your question number two. Question number two, yes, the network CapEx we are plugging into the plan is basically with the assumption that we are putting there, and we are kind of confident that we can get something similar.
So as I said, there should be also a lift of the cap in 2027 because otherwise, if they do not lift the cap, it's impossible just to get there. But basically, this would be a kind of base case. Of course, if the conditions are better than that, we have plenty of space in our leverage just to commit more CapEx. And again, it's not only the CapEx in distribution, but we have to take into account also potential CapEx on RAB, but generation in the islands, okay? So because also there, there are potentially more CapEx.
Regarding so at the end of this, when we will have this visibility about how many CapEx we can actually really deploy, that will be the time where we then should probably have a look again at the dividend policy and understanding whether it is correct to maintain it or not. On question number three regarding the free power margin, yes, it is true that basically only 2025 and 2026 are covered, are hedged. Basically, on that, we have a little doubt. 2027, this coverage, it's only 40%. Again, on one side, you have a lower, if you want, lower power prices when compared to the previous plan, but there is also a lower sourcing. On the other side, we are plugging in more renewables, so there is more own production.
That's what gives us the confidence on maintaining the free power margin also in 2027. And we will start, of course, to continue to cover that amount, to hedge that amount the more we get closer to 2027, as usual, basically. Thank you.
Okay. We have now Gonzalo Sánchez-Bordona from UBS.
Thank you, Mar. Thank you, everyone, for taking my questions. Just I have two clarifications on topics that have already been discussed and then a question on the capex side. First one on the hydro assets that you acquired from Acciona. Am I right in assuming that the over €100 million EBITDA is just generation, so that includes no impact whatsoever into the retail or supply business? That's the first clarification.
Second one, on your CapEx in renewables, and looking at the back of your presentation, it feels like you have very little to no new renewable capacity secured out of the one you are including in the plan. So the clarification here would be whether that's the case, and if that's the case, whether you think so basically, whether the CapEx that you are allocating to renewables could be flexible CapEx. You can build it on your own, or you can just buy assets. I guess the question here is whether the potential M&A that you've been chatting about or discussing about is on top of or could be part of that. That's basically the question. And then I have a bit of a conceptual question in terms of timing.
It feels to me like based on what you've been saying, there is quite a lot of upside on CapEx if the regulatory review goes well, but there's a very wide number of things that still need to be addressed. And starting with, I would say, with the revenue tax that up to yesterday night could have been coming back. And I don't know if we'll hear more on that or not. But basically, when do you think you will have all the pieces you need in order to take a decision on whether to go ahead with higher CapEx or not? And if that is before next year's CMD or strategic plan update, whether you will provide new guidance on investments or we have to wait another year for that. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Gonzalo. So basically, question number one: hydro asset, are we plugging into the 110 margins or 100 of EBITDA any advantage coming from the retail? The answer is no. This is only the generation impact. When we go to question number two: so is it in the capex plan, any M&A plugged in? Answer also there, no. So this eventually would be something to add on and only if there are opportunities. Question, probably the most important, number three, regarding the timing: so do you have to wait another year just to know what happens? I think that you don't. Why so? On the tax, for good or for bad, we will have visibility by the end of this 2024.
In terms of regulation, despite the fact that the final number will be defined at the end of 2025, the truth is that we will have many drafts and many inputs that will come in the first part of 2025. This relates not only to the distribution, but also, if you want, on the generation on the islands. We will have a lot of elements in our hands at the beginning of 2025. My answer is you do not have to wait till the end of till next capital market day. Okay, thank you.
Next question comes from Fernando Garcia from RBC.
Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. First, you have provided the percentage of generation hedge until 2027. Can you give an indication about pricing of these hedges, electricity hedges?
Second, you have a gas arbitration open in one of your gas contracts. When do you expect an outcome of this arbitration? And then the third question on the extraordinary tax, I agree with you that all looks very messy at the moment. But at the end, this tax is extended. My question is, you will include that in your dividend calculation as it happened in 2023 and 2024? Many thanks.
So thank you, Fernando. So on question number one, on the hedges on electricity, I mean, actually, the hedges are very high for 2024, as we said, for 2025 and 2026. So basically, of course, the power prices we are hedging is going down because, as we said, we see power prices converging to approximately 60-61 EUR per megawatt-hour in 2027. So those are the prices, the hedges that we're seeing, of course, decreasing till 2027.
Regarding the gas arbitration, I mean, for good or for bad, also there, we should be almost done with the arbitration because the Qatar contract will expire March next year, and the Nigerian contract will expire September, October of 2026. So those arbitrations we were through actually should cover those periods. And we expect a decision probably by year-end, maximum the beginning of next year. So for good or for bad, then arbitration will not be part of our business plan. And regarding tax, again, as I said, we are highlighting both in terms of EBITDA and in terms of net income ranges in the plan. And the ranges are also because of the uncertainty that we're somehow seeing and also because of the uncertainty on the revenue tax. Thank you.
Okay, thank you very much. This was the last question of our call. And now I will read a couple of questions that we have received from the web. The first one comes from ODDO, Ourpatian , sorry, that is asking about the moving parts that explain that the target of 2027 is a one-year delay of the old 2026 targets despite higher assets, investment in grids, and better trending in terms of prices.
So basically, here, I would say that the most significant differences are in terms of RAB because there is an increase, of course, in CapEx in this plan. And there is also a shorter, as we said, amortization period for the recurring investments in nuclear and in the islands. As for now, we should assume that on the nuclear, we stick to the calendar that is agreed with the government.
And as well on the islands, we should stick to what we have today and what investments were in the past and so that the power plants should be closed, and that's it. Again, in terms of islands, I remind everybody that on October of this year, there has been a tender for new capacity in the islands. And I mean, it will take time to know, but soon we will know whether we will have the possibility to invest in new generation capacity in the islands and eventually also somehow changing a bit those assumptions. Thanks.
And the last one comes from Camilla Naschert from S&P that is asking about the impact on power demand coming from the new data center.
Well, on this, I should say that actually it's probably some of, if we want some of the upsides on this plan. I mean, the growth we are plugging in this plan do not foresee a strong demand coming from the new connection that we have been somehow allowing in recent years and that we could eventually be ready to allow in the future years if we can increase our investments in the grid. So the effect of this is not in this growth because we want to see it before plugging into our numbers. But the truth is that if the assumption, and actually if what we see in terms of connection request and in terms of capacity request, it's true, somehow the consumption coming from data centers could be very important.
It could somehow probably change a bit, particularly the assumption that we are doing on the sales because in this plan, we are assuming that we will actually sell the very same quantity of energy despite being a stronger producer. So despite having more generation, we'll still sell the same. Well, this makes sense with the projection that we are plugging in. If the demand increase goes higher because of data centers, I mean, probably those assumptions should be somehow changed.
Okay, thank you. This was the very last question of our call. Just remind you that IR team, as always, will be here in case you have any other questions. Thank you very much for participating and have a nice day.