Endesa, S.A. (BME:ELE)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 24, 2021

Mar Martínez
Head of Investor Relations, Endesa

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to the full year 2020 results presentation, which, as always, will be hosted by our CEO, José Bogas, and the CFO, Luca Passa. In the following slides, we will elaborate on the progress of our strategic plan according to its key strategic pillars, and then we will go through the full year operational and financial performance. Following the presentation, we will have the usual Q&A session. Thank you for your attention, and now let me hand over to José Gálvez.

José Bogas
CEO, Endesa

Okay, thank you, Mar, and good morning to everybody. Thank you for being able to join us today on such a full day of financial events in the utility sector. We will try our best to speed up our presentation to allow for a maximum Q&A session given the time constraints. Let's start with the main highlights of the period. In 2020, we can take pride in delivering an outstanding set of results despite the extremely complex environment. Like for like EBITDA increased by 5% year-on-year, reaching EUR 4 billion, excluding the non-recurrent impacts booked during the period. The provisions booked so far and the related efficiencies set the grounds for a higher degree of flexibility to meet future challenges. This excellent performance proves the resiliency of our business lines against extraordinary impacts.

At the bottom line, net ordinary income, reference figure for the dividend payment, increased by 36% up to EUR 2,132 million. Consequently, 2020 shareholder remuneration proposal to be approved in the next AGM will be the highest in Endesa since 2014. Sorry, moving now to slide number four. During this past year, we have witnessed significant achievement in each of our ESG main lines of action, proof of the success of the integration of sustainability into the strategy and operation. We are in a very advanced stage of incorporating the recommendation of the Taskforce on Climate related Financial Disclosure, TCFD, in all of our reports. Evident of this is the top score awarded to us by CDP Carbon Disclosure Project.

On the subject of GHG emission, based on the acceleration of coal fleet closure, we have achieved a record low specific emission level of 180 g CO2 per kWh , well under our target of 277. In the context of the acceleration of our decarbonization plan, we believe that hydrogen green generation is a good complement to the energy transition. On the social side, we have focused on the development of a just transition strategy to secure employment in areas affected by closure, always based on our self-value creation approach. On top of that, we have endowed and completed the EUR 25 million public responsibility plan launched in March 2020 to mitigate the health, labor, and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

We have also achieved a notable milestone in our action plan to promote gender diversity with the presence of women in positions of responsibility, reaching more than 30% of female directors and setting a new, more ambitious target of 40% by 2022. As a way of preserving the health and safety of our employees from COVID-19 infection, we have extended the smart working for more than 6,000 people. The recognition of all these achievements has resulted in increased presence and ranking improvement in the most prominent ESG ratings worldwide, and also ESG investors have increased their presence up to 15% of our total shares outstanding.

Moving now to the delivery of the strategic plan, and starting from the achieved financial target on slide number five, EBITDA amounted to EUR 4 billion on a like-for-like basis ahead of the EUR 3.9 billion target.

Net Ordinary Income came in at EUR 2.1 billion, an increase of 36% year-on-year, and also ahead of the EUR 2 billion target. These remarkable results have allowed us to propose a record dividend per share of 2.014 gross EUR, according to our policy of 100% Net Ordinary Income payout ratio. Gross CapEx dropped by 19%. This is explained by the fact that last year's figure included the extraordinary investment boost required to put into commercial operation the 2017 awarded auction project. To sum up, this year we have performed outstandingly, exceeding set targets across the board. Moving to slide number six, we can see how this set of good results comes in a year in which important steps have been taken in order to further promote decarbonization and electrification.

Firstly, in November, a special new fund called National Fund for the Sustainability of the Electrical System, that is FNSSE, was proposed. Finally, tackling one of the sector longstanding requests to mitigate the legacy renewables premium for the electricity tariff. We welcome this development and believe it will be a fundamental instrument to achieve the decarbonization of our energy system. Regarding the use of the funds from the European Union Climate Recovery Fund, the government has defined a series of guidelines and leverage policies to allocate these resources across several sectors. Energy transition and digitalization will benefit from around 70% of these amounts. Within this context, Endesa has submitted a list of 110 projects representing around EUR 19 billion of potential total investment on energy transition, renewables, energy efficiency, hydrogen, sustainable transport, and smart networks.

Additionally, a new framework ruling renewable auction has been set, targeting a minimum of around 20 GW up to 2025. That is around 60% of the PNIEC target for the period 2020 to 2025. In the first auction under this scheme held in January 2021, a total of more than three GW were awarded. Moreover, the CNMC circular on grid tariffs has been approved, and the draft royal decree on regulated levies cost is expected to crystallize during 2021, allowing for a new methodology to encourage demand electrification.

Finally, very recently, the Spanish energy storage strategy was approved, setting ambitious targets of 20 GW of storage capacity by 2030 and 30 GW by 2050. We believe that this strategy is a good instrument, but it is key to advance in the definition of the capacity mechanism and the operating procedures for these kinds of facilities.

2020 represented a significant landmark in the decarbonization of our generation mix, as detailed in slide number seven. At the end of June, 2.1 GW of Endesa's domestic coal-fired generation was formally disconnected. Moreover, we are pending formal approval of the closure request for the remaining mainland imported coal power plants, which will be phased out during 2021. This represents a decisive step to fulfill our full decarbonization target. These closing plans also include several proposals for significant investment in new renewable energy facilities and potentially linked hydrogen projects in the surrounding areas. The overachievement of our specific emission reduction target translates into a decline of coal contribution in the P&L, which only represents now a negligible 1% of the total revenues.

Advancing on to slide number eight, we can see the increase of around 0.4 GW in mainland renewable capacity, which now represents around 45% of total mainland figure, well on track to reach the 62% target set out in our business plan. We have reached a record renewable output of 13.3 TWh, that is a 33% increase versus 2019. Out of this production increase, 55% is due to the exceptional hydro output of this year, the rest being hydro contribution from photovoltaic and wind generation.

Emission-free production represented around 85% of the total mainland production, already reaching the target set for 2022 and well on track to reach 89% by 2023. Moving on to slide number nine, increasing our pipeline of renewable projects has been particularly important in order to support our ambitious objectives and the potential participation in the new auction for the next five years.

Our gross pipeline was boosted to 41.8 GW, out of which more than 15% has TSO awarded connection points with a significant weight of solar of around 65% in net pipeline. As we have detailed earlier in the last Spanish auction, under the new scheme, Endesa was awarded with 50 MW, which will be operative by 2023. In response to the ministry's call for interest in hydrogen to benefit from European Union funds, Endesa presented a plan to develop up to 23 projects. Expected investment subject to the concession of the European Union grants would amount to more than EUR 2. 9 billion to bring 340 MW of electrolyzer capacity online fed by around 2,000 MW of renewable energy, with a significant impact on job creation both in the construction phase and in the 20 years of maintenance work.

When it comes to electrification, on slide number 10, the drop in Spanish demand has led to a 10% decrease in total gross sales, affecting mainly B2B, minus 14%, strongly hit by the economy's deceleration due to the COVID-19. Spanish industrial sales decreased by 13%, and SMEs down by 21%. B2C sales showed a lower decrease of 2%, mostly as a consequence of the mild winter and soft summer. The lower number of customers and the inclusion of the SOHO segment, that is a small office/home office, considering only domestic customers, sales would have increased by 3%. Total power customers decreased by 2%, mainly due to the intensive competition in the sector. Against this backdrop, we have been able to reshape our mix to retain more valuable customers.

Our objectives in B2C is to ensure our leadership through our clients' knowledge and the increasingly sophisticated range of products and services, as evidenced by the UNICA tariff, which has been very well received and is, I would say, a pioneering initiative in the sector. Our priority in the B2B cluster is to exploit our customization and consulting model to be the leading energy partner of industrial and SMEs. Another milestone regarding electric mobility has been the 42% boost in charging points up to around 7,100 deployed. This has allowed us to become leaders in public charging points in Spain, a step forward in our effort in demand electrification.

Within our energy management, in slide number 11, the unitary integrated margin resulted in EUR 33.9 per MWh , showing a 20% increase versus the 28.3 of 2019, while electricity sales in the liberalized business decreased in Iberia by 11% in terms of volume, that is nine TWh. This margin increase was mainly supported by the positive management of the short position, which was partially set by the slightly negative evolution of the supply margin affected by lower sales, but with a higher unitary margin and almost flat results in the generation margin. Regarding forward sales, we have had for 2021, 97% of our estimated price-driven output at a price of around EUR 71 per MWh. Once we considered our total sale mix, the all-in revenue, including indexed energy, will reach EUR 66 per MWh.

For 2022, hedged volumes stand at 57% at a price of around EUR 73 per MWh all-in price, and the estimated all-in revenue, including indexed energy, will be similar to 2021 once all of the estimated price-driven output has been hedged. In networks, and I am now on slide number 12, Endesa's distributed energy has slightly decreased by 1%. The significant cumulated investment effort has resulted in the maintenance of the RAB at a level of EUR 11.7 billion. This, in turn, has allowed for a sound improvement of all operational performance indicators. The SAIFI has improved by 2%. The number of interruptions remained flat versus last year, while the minutes of interruption indicator improved by 23%. In that sense, losses saw a sharp reduction of 4 percentage points, mainly thanks to the continuous implementation of grid digitalization projects.

All this shows our commitment to becoming a best-in-class digital network operator while maintaining a continued focus on quality and operational efficiency. Finally, diving deeply into 2020 investment on slide number 13, overall gross Capex was equal to EUR 1.6 billion. Investment in renewables, mainly channeled towards new capacity development and investment in distribution, devoted to grid digitalization account for the lion's share, with 67% of the total Capex. After this challenging year, we expect to accelerate 2021 investment by 25% up to EUR 2 billion, as announced in our strategic plan. Note that each business line has a direct impact on each of the SDGs 7, 9, and 11, and in turn, on the wider scope of SDG 13, reaching a total of around 80% of Capex allocated to climate action once aligned to the European Union taxonomy.

All in all, more than 90% of our total development investment was devoted to our main strategic priorities, renewables and distribution. And now, let me hand over to Luca Passa for the financial performance for the period.

Luca Passa
CFO, Endesa

Thank you, Pepe, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. To start, I would like to comment on the market context for the period on slide 15. During 2020, mainland power demand affected by the COVID crisis has fallen by 5.1% versus 2019, despite the progressive recovery seen since the Q2. Likewise, in Endesa concession area, gross demand has softened the fall to 4.4% in unadjusted terms and to 5% in adjusted terms. These figures are mainly driven by the drop in the industry and service segments, partially offset by the increase in the residential sector's activity. As far as prices are concerned, we experienced high volatility during the year.

The progressive improvement in demand from the Q2 and the strong increase of commodity prices in the second half of the year allowed a significant recovery of power price in the Q4. Despite this, Spanish wholesale price averaged EUR 34 MWh in 2020, the lowest ever recorded, and showing a decrease of 29% versus 2019. Let's now move to the financial performance of the period. I'm on slide number 16. EBITDA stood at EUR 3.783 million, decreasing 2%.

On a like-for-like basis, once netted from the non-recurring provisions effects that will be explained on the following slide, the EBITDA increased by 5% to EUR 4.027 million. Net income rose by eight times to EUR 1.394 million, impacted by the impairments of coal plants booked last year, worth EUR 1.1 billion at net income level, and the impairments of non-mainland assets in both years.

Net ordinary income grew by 36% year-on-year, reaching EUR 2.132 million. In the analysis on slide 35, we have included the bridges from EBITDA reported to like-for-like and from net income to net ordinary income. Funds from operations reached around EUR 3 billion, down by 7% versus last year. Net debt increased to EUR 6.9 billion, up 8% versus full year 2019. Let's move to slide 17, where we illustrate the non-recurrent impacts on personnel cost.

In addition to the provision booked in the nine months 2020, in this last quarter, Endesa has booked a new one of EUR 387 million regarding the initial net accrual personnel cost due to the restructuring plan relating to the digitalization processes. As it was the case with the decarbonization plan personnel provision booked in the Q3, it will not have any impact on Endesa's 2020 dividend payment.

In summary, provisions booked in the first half 2020 and in the second half 2020 sum up to EUR 244 million at EBITDA level and EUR 183 million at net income level. This provision will allow us to early retire a maximum of 2,200 full-time employees, or about 22% of our workforce, providing the company with a greater degree of flexibility, allowing for a further degree of efficiency to face future challenges. Moving to slide 18 on the impairments booked during the period, as of 31st December 2020, the re-estimation of the recoverable value of non-mainland assets, which considered, among other aspects, the order on forward reference price issued in August, resulted in an impairment loss of EUR 338 million. This is in addition to an impairment of EUR 404 million booked in 2019.

Also in 2019, Endesa recorded an impairment for the entire net book value of the assets of the non-mainland coal-fired power plants for an amount of EUR 1.366 million, while in 2020, as a result of the update of these provisions, we booked a net reversal of EUR 17 million. Out of these impairments booked in 2020, EUR 356 million are not considered in the calculation of net ordinary income in accordance with the current dividend policy, so they have no impact on the termination of the shareholders' remuneration. Before moving to the detailed analysis of the period, let's take a look at the COVID estimated impact on our financial results. I'm on our slide 19. The third wave of infections in the Q4 obliged the government to declare a new state of alarm.

This new restriction adopted has caused an additional negative impact of about EUR 40 million to the already booked EUR 81 million and nine months results. Therefore, as of the end of December, we have estimated a net impact of EUR 120 million at EBITDA level, out of which around EUR 30 million in non-mainland, mainly due to the sharp demand contraction. Net of this effect, EBITDA would have been up by 2% year-on-year. Moving down to the P&L, we recorded a negative hit on D&A of about EUR 50 million. All this translates to around EUR 130 million impact at net income level. Without considering these negative impacts, net ordinary income would have increased by 45%. Capex has also been marginally affected, while the impact in funds from operations amounted to around EUR 200 million.

Moving to the detailed analysis of the like-for-like EBITDA on slide 20, let me now briefly set out the main drivers. As already commented, once deducted and all recurrent effects booked in the personnel cost, Endesa's EBITDA stood at EUR 4.27 million plus 5% versus 2019. Generation and supply EBITDA rose by 21% to EUR 1.782 million, mainly supported by the increase in the integrated electricity margin and the lower fixed cost. Distribution EBITDA decreased by 4% at EUR 2.18 million.

Finally, non-mainland generation EBITDA reached EUR 227 million, a 50% decrease year-on-year. I will comment on each business line performance on the next slides. On slide 21, a quick follow-up on our efficiency program, which is consistently proving to be effective across all our business lines. Total like-for-like fixed cost reached EUR 1.979 million minus 4.2% versus last year.

Efficiency and others and the positive effect of inflation more than offset perimeter and growth effects on cost. The strong effort in renewables capacity development is leading to a slight increase in unitary fixed cost reaching EUR 17 MWh in 2020 from EUR 16 in 2019. This temporary rise will be reverted as the new capacity is brought into operation. In distribution, the digitalization initiatives of our processes and assets brought reductions of our operational cost with a drop of EUR 24.2 from EUR 43 per end user of last year. Lastly, in supply, we have been able to maintain a flat cost to serve of EUR 11.1 per customer as a consequence of leveraging on digitalization initiatives.

The COVID backdrop has boosted the digital interactions with customers heavily. Finally, the new collective agreement signed with the unions is expected to bring stability and increase efficiencies in the upcoming years.

Going deeper in the performance of the regulated business, I'm now on slide number 22. Like-for-like EBITDA decreased by 5% to EUR 2.245 million with a lower gross margin and slightly higher fixed cost by 2%. Distribution margin decreased by 4%, mainly due to the application of the new remuneration parameters of the second regulatory period. On the other end, it must be highlighted the improvement of adjusted fixed cost by EUR 19 million, thanks to the positive impact from the update of the workforce provision and others. The non-mainland generation gross margin remained mostly flat, partially recovering from the negative fuel margins during the first half of the year, thanks to a rebound in the commodity prices since the summer, allowing a relative normalization.

Like-for-like EBITDA in non-mainland decreased to EUR 227 million, still 15% lower than last year, mainly due to the lower demand driven by the COVID pandemic, offset by the positive regularization from previous years. Fixed cost increased mainly due to the provision booked in the Q4 as a consequence of blackouts in Tenerife and La Palma Islands during the summer. On the liberalized business, on slide number 23, EBITDA reached EUR 1.782 million, a sound 21% increase on a like-for-like basis adjusted by the personnel cost provision, backed by a EUR 204 million improvement in gross margin, while fixed cost dropped by 8%. The electricity integrated margin increase has been driven by the positive management of the short position, partially offset by the comparatively worse evolution of the supply margins affected by lower sales with the higher unitary margin.

The generation margin remained flat versus previous year levels, mainly thanks to better generation mix with plus 2.6 TWh of higher price-driven output, the better procurement margins in combined cycles, and revenues increased from ancillary services. These were partially offset by the increase of the ENRESA tax, the new Catalan tax enforced since the 1st of July, and the removal of the 7% generation tax in the Q1 2019. Energy and power gross margin reached EUR 326 million plus 12%. EBITDA decreased by 6% due to the increase in fixed cost explained by the new capacity projects in construction and the hiring of new staff in 2020. In gas, gross margin reached EUR 215 million, showing a flat evolution versus 2019 despite the unfavorable context.

This year has been characterized by the better reference of our sales compared to our procurement cost, much lower, and the flexibility provided by our long-term contracts that allow us to benefit from purchasing gas in the spot market. Endesa X contributes with a flat gross margin of EUR 118 million. Like-for-like fixed costs have experienced a very good evolution, decreasing by EUR 103 million, supported by lower operational cost in coal plants, structural cost, and disciplinary proceedings. This better cost more than offset the COVID social responsibility fund and higher cost in Energy and power, as mentioned before. Moving now to the next slide on the P&L evolution from EBITDA to net ordinary income on page 24. D&A decreased by 7% once excluded the impairments on thermal assets and on the islands in both years.

This decrease is mainly explained by the lower D&A triggered by last year's impairments, partially offset by higher amortization in Energy and power, and the adjustment of nuclear fleet useful life set on the nuclear protocol. Despite this increase caused by COVID, overall bad debt provision has decreased by EUR 8 million, mainly due to the lower sales in 2020, down by approximately 15%, and EUR 30 million from other factors, notably from higher collection in B2B.

Net financial results decreased to EUR 134 million, mainly driven by the impact of IFRS 9 on financial assets and the financial update of workforce and dismantling provision, as rates fell by around 50 basis points in 2019 compared to a decrease of around 30 basis points in 2020. Results from equity investment and others improved to EUR 36 million, mainly thanks to the favorable court decision on Garoña nuclear tax.

Taxes increased year-on-year by EUR 338 million, considering the difference in the amount of impairments in both years and the personal cost provisions of this year. Excluding these effects, the effective tax rate would have been 22.5% versus 24.4% last year, mainly as a result of greater materialization of deductions for investment in the Canary Islands inputted to the results and the regularization of the 2019 tax return recorded in 2020. Finally, net ordinary income increased by a remarkable 36% over the period. Moving to the cash flow on slide 25, funds from operations decreased by 7%, reaching EUR 2.951 million due to the following effects.

Flat EBITDA after provision paid, working capital and others worsened to minus EUR 227 million, mainly due to the COVID-related Royal Decree 11 of 2020 impact on residential customer supply cut and reduction of contracted capacity, higher inventories, and lower net balance of receivables and payables accounts as a consequence of lower volumes and commodity prices, mainly in coal and gas derived from the economic crisis. Income tax paid decreased by 48% to EUR 229 million, mainly due to the higher corporate tax refund.

The cash-based Capex, 10% lower than the previous year, also led to a free cash flow to positive EUR 1.221 million in this period, a slight 4% below than 2019. Given the worsening of the sanitary situation in the Q4, final full-year estimate of COVID impact in FFO has amounted to about EUR 200 million, which fully explains the delta of 7% versus last year.

Let's now look at the net debt position on slide 26. Net debt amounts to EUR 6,899 million, EUR 500 million higher than the previous year, but lower than our guidance. This increase is mainly due to the payment of EUR 1.6 billion in dividends corresponding to the gross dividend against 2019 results. The regulatory working capital remained almost flat at EUR 875 million, with respect to reaching a normalized level of around EUR 600-EUR 700 million. Our leverage remains stable with a net debt to EBITDA ratio at 1.8 times, slightly higher than in the full year 2019. It is worth highlighting that the extraordinarily low cost of debt of 1.7% that marks a new historical minimum and places Endesa as the European utility with the lowest cost of debt.

As a consequence of this healthy financial leverage, Moody's upgraded last month the long-term issuer rating of Endesa to Baa1, with stable outlook, and Fitch recently confirmed the A-minus rating with a stable outlook. Now let's give a bit more granularity on the sustainable finance on slide number 27. During 2020, Endesa has engaged in an intensive activity to boost sustainable finance with EUR 5.8 billion in sustainability-linked transactions. Some of these transactions have represented a major breakthrough in sustainable finance generally, namely the first listed corporate SDG Euro Commercial Paper Program in Europe and the first sustainability-linked revolving lines in the energy sector in Spain.

Sustainable finance accounts for 45% of total gross financial debt. Considering solely third-party debt, this percentage increased to 76%. Now let me hand over to Pepe for his final remarks.

José Bogas
CEO, Endesa

Thank you, Luca. Our achievement rendered significant value creation for our shareholders.

Considering a 100% payout of net ordinary income in 2020, the Board of Directors will propose, subject to general shareholders' meeting approval, a total gross DPS payment of EUR 2.014 per share against 2020 results. After an interim dividend of EUR 0.70 per share paid in January, the final dividend of EUR 1.3136 per share is expected to be paid in July 2021. This outstanding dividend is 6% above our updated DPS guidance and represents a 37% increase over last year's DPS. Moving on to slide number 30. As shown throughout this presentation, we can be proud of succeeding once again in meeting the ambitious target we have set for 2020, considering that we had to face all COVID-19 headwinds.

We believe that the figures presented today represent an important milestone in Endesa's equity story, where we are laying the foundation that will allow us to fulfill our 2030 vision while delivering sustainable shareholder return over the long term. To close this presentation on slide number 31, I would like to share some final remarks on our performance during the year. First, the continuous and timely delivery, once again beating our financial target. Second, the resiliency of our integrated business model based on coupling the stability of regulated EBITDA, a consistent liberalized business, along customer position, and a sound financial structure allowed us to overcome COVID impacts. Third, we are convinced of the adequacy of our strategy and are fully committed to an ongoing effort of adaptation to successfully address the challenges ahead.

And last, in such a context, the outstanding dividend yield in 2020 is the strongest evidence of sound value creation for our shareholders. And moreover, the sound set of results paves the way to an even higher dividend yield in 2021 of around 9%. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our full-year 2020 results presentation. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are ready to take some questions.

Mar Martínez
Head of Investor Relations, Endesa

Okay. Thank you, Pepe. Thank you, Luca. Now we can open the Q&A session.

Operator

If you wish to ask a question, please press Star 1 on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind and wish to withdraw your question, please press Star 2.

Harry Wyburd
Director of European Equity Research, Bank of America

So the first question comes from Harry Wyburd from Bank of America. Please, Harry, go ahead.

Hi. Morning, everyone. And appreciate we're tight for time here, so I'll just keep it to one question.

Just on the unitary margins, and Luca, I apologize for a little distraction with one of your peers while you were going through these particular slides, but I noticed the unitary margin, I think, was 34 for 2020, and I think as recently as November, you'd got it to 32. That obviously sort of seems to set things up quite well as we go into 2021, but also you've had some very significant spikes in spot prices in the Q1.

So I apologize if I'm going over things that you already mentioned and I missed because I was distracted earlier, but could you just help us understand why unitary margin was so much better in the last few months of 2020 and what that means for this year's unitary margins, particularly in the context of the spot price spikes and, of course, good hydro volumes so far this year?

Luca Passa
CFO, Endesa

Sure. Let me take this, Harry. This is Luca. Hi. Yes, unitary margin has been 34 now. As we mentioned, we had basically a contribution from what we call the managing of the short position of about EUR 200 million for the full year. Netting of this contribution, unitary margin will be in the EUR 31 per MWh. However, as you just said, good performance, and the last quarter has basically been very similar to the performance of the Q3 when it comes to the liberalized business.

Now, you need to take into account that the major effect on unitary margin, besides the short position, is volumes. So now to calculate, obviously, this number, we have lower volumes for the overall year that is in the range of nine TWh on sales, and that is what is affecting the increase in unitary margin.

When it comes to 2021, our guidance for unitary margin is in the range of EUR 29-EUR 30 per MWh, and that is driven by the fact, obviously, of higher volumes expected, but also taking into account the evolution of pool price for the first part of this year. As we all observed, the cold snap that we experienced in January obviously affected pool price heavily, but also affected commodity price, and in particular, gas that is the driving technology when it comes to the marginal market in Spain. As far as the impact of this cold snap on Endesa, what I can mention is we entered the year with a slightly open short position, which was positive for about EUR 30 million.

This EUR 30 million, in terms of the position, has been basically neutralized by the spike in power prices, but we also put on some hedges on a long basis on some commodities, in particular, CO2 and Brent, which are yielding positively through the beginning of this year. So net-net between these two impacts, I would say that we had no impact from the cold snap in the beginning of the year. So we're basically planning to achieve between EUR 29 and EUR 30, depending on volumes, as unitary margin for 2021.

Mar Martínez
Head of Investor Relations, Endesa

Okay. Thank you, Harry. Next question comes from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs.

Alberto Gandolfi
Managing Director, Goldman Sachs

Thank you, Mar. And good morning, everyone. I'll keep it to two myself. The first one is on supply market share. We are hearing that some of the oil majors are starting to gain up to 100,000 customers a week. So I was wondering if you can comment.

I haven't really had time, sorry, to see the customer evolutions for you in Q4. What are you seeing in the early weeks of this year? And how do you plan to retain customers if you're losing them, or how much would it cost to get new ones? So just a little bit high-level, your strategy on customer evolution. And the second question, I mean, you have a very good slide detailing 42 gigawatt gross pipeline, EUR 3 billion hydrogen. It looks like we are hearing from some competitors of yours that the Spanish government is planning to upgrade the renewable 2030 target, and soon enough, we'll start to talk about beyond 2030.

So I was wondering if you're still standing by your less than one gigawatt a year additions to 2030, which was seen as a disappointment last year at the CMD, or if you're gearing up to grow well above that level. Thank you.

José Bogas
CEO, Endesa

Okay. Thank you, Alberto. I will try just to give you some ideas, and then Luca could complement what I am going just to say. First of all, with regard to the customer evolution, and let me say the competitive landscape in Spain, well, it is absolutely true that the competitive intensity in Spain during the last years, and especially during the second half of the previous year, 2020, and the beginning of the year is very important.

And this is very just because we have a strong presence of small supply companies, and also we have new entrants and new operators, mainly from the oil sector, but also coming from the telecom and new producer, renewable producer. And on top of that, there are the traditional incumbents. As I have said, since mid-2020, a change in the competition landscape because the reaction of one of the main incumbents just trying to go ahead with a price war instead of doing what we think should be the answer in this kind of situation. Well, what we saw was an increase in the churn rate in free market, more than, if I'm right, more than four points.

I think that competition will be even tougher than the one that we have today because, well, the new entrants and also, I would say, this new generation looking forward to back their generation business with customers. So we are or we are living in a very, very intensive competition. Having said that, well, we have been doing that during a lot of time. Endesa remains being the market leader, and in that sense, we will have or we have a strategy that looks to retain or to maintain the market share more or less on our margins.

That is the way in which we think it should be answered this situation being, as I have said, the main player that is defending our market share and margin. We neither want to or nor are we interested in entering in a price war.

To defend our market share and margin, our strategy is based on the value proposal adapted to the customer with a maximum personalization, focus on loyalty and retention, and our commercial capacity, trying to develop and to strengthen the current channels, creating new channels, strategic alliance, and further commercial campaigns and also the third pillar, I would say, that would be the efficiency because it's very, very important just to be successful in the future. All in all, I should say that we have lost in the free market more than 100,000 customers, but we continue increasing the value of our customer base. With regard to the second question, if I remember well, about the renewables, I have written here 42 GW. The pipeline. Yeah, yeah, the pipeline. I'm not sure. Excuse me, Alberto, about the question.

I don't remember well, but in any case, let me say about our pipeline. No, and I remember, not also the pipeline, about our ambitions in the future. Yeah, yeah. Well, let me say, well, we said in our vision up to the year 2030 that we will deploy more than 10 GW. We explained in the case of the presentation of our STEEP plan that it would be closer to 15 than 10 GW. You have a very simple figure. That means something around 1.5, between 1 and 1.5 GW each year. We will see what happens. I think that the best the national energy and climate plan of Spain is very, very ambitious and very challenging, but in any case, I'm very difficult just to really fulfill because it takes a lot of work to go ahead with.

But we think that we are very well prepared with these figures between one and 1.5. Nevertheless, we will try to do our best to increase this figure if it is possible, but we think that we should be cautious and try to do our best. But Luca, could you really put figures, numbers, or?

Luca Passa
CFO, Endesa

Sure. Just some additional data on the first question. So churn rate on the free market for electricity and gas in 2020 has increased from 9%- 13.2%. When it comes only to power customer, it has increased by 4.7 basis points to 14.4%. So competition is clearly increasing. The total customer loss in power for us has been 215,000 customers, and the trend, I think, is clear also for 2021. Obviously, as Pepe said, we have, let's say, an action plan in order for us to retain our market share.

When it comes to renewables, let me say that in our industrial plan, we point out 3.9 GW of additional capacity in three years with, let's say, a trend that goes from 700 this year to 1.4 GW next year to 1.7 in 2023, which means an average yearly installation rate of 1.4. The ambition for us is to maintain this average installation rate beyond 2023, which will lead to the 5.0 or more than 15 GW that Pepe was mentioning for 2030, when you compare this with the same ambitions of other players which recently updated their plans. I think we are far ahead of everyone. There is only one integrated utility that gets closer to these installation rates for the forthcoming years.

Mar Martínez
Head of Investor Relations, Endesa

Thank you, Alberto. We have now Enrico Bartoli from Stifel. Two questions on my side. The first one is also on a debt.

Enrico Bartoli
Senior Analyst, Stifel

6.9 billion was significantly lower than the EUR 7.3 that you guided in November. So I wondered what was better than expected, and if you can give us some indication of the expected evolution by the end of 2021 for net debt. The second one is related to this hydrogen project that you announced. Can you give us some details about the possible timing and the returns that you expect? I guess that there is almost nothing in the current business plan if you can also confirm that. Thank you very much.

Luca Passa
CFO, Endesa

Okay. Thank you, Enrico. I'll take the first one and leave Pepe to comment on the second one. So net debt evolution, the better performance in 2020 has been mainly by a lower regular working capital towards the end of the year. As you probably remember, we have assumed EUR 1.2 billion.

In the end, we are at EUR 900 million, and so that's there basically the improvement versus guidance. As far as 2021, we are guiding to EUR 8 billion on the net debt at the end of the year with an assumption of about EUR 900 million of regular working capital. And Pepe, you want to comment on the hydrogen plan?

José Bogas
CEO, Endesa

Yeah. Thank you, Luca. Enrico, well, first of all, I should say that the hydrogen project, in my opinion, in our point of view, it's or will be a complement to the, let's say, the best way of the decarbonization of the economy, which is the electrification. So hydrogen is a complement to electrification and not a competitor, let's say, to decarbonize the hard-to-abate sector, I would say. The second thing is that it is true that now it is expensive just to use the so-called green hydrogen.

The cost is around two times the cost of this not green hydrogen production. In my opinion, in the next three years, we will see for sure the hydrogen will be one very important element in the future. In the next three years, we will see how fast we will be able just to deploy this new project. Having said that, what we have presented to the Spanish authorities is 23 projects. Some of them based on the supply of this green hydrogen to final customer. Some of them are very big one, especially in three areas, industrial areas. Also, we are looking to use this hydrogen, green hydrogen in the island in the sense in two ways. One of them is just to allow faster penetration of renewables in the island.

The second is it's possible just to replace the gas, gas oil, the fuel that we are consuming by this green hydrogen. I think that we will see, as I have said, when it would be possible just to implement that. In my opinion, we will see these changes at the end of this decade because it would take some time just really to adjust prices, costs, etc. But it is very, very important to start working now just to prepare and to pave the way to the second half of the decade.

Luca Passa
CFO, Endesa

And probably, Enrico, just a few data on this point. So the 23 projects amount to a total of EUR 2.9 billion of Capex to bring basically 340 MW of electrolyzers and about 2 GW of renewable energy additions capacity, which is currently not in our business plan.

The returns we are seeking for these projects is the same returns we are seeking for the new generation capacity, so a spread to WACC of about 200 basis points. This means that for this project to be in that ballpark needs more or less on average between 50%-55% of basically grants through the EU Recovery Fund, so that's basically the plan. Nothing, or basically nothing, is in our business plan up until 2023, and obviously, these projects in terms of execution will depend on receiving the funds at the European level.

Thank you, Enrico. The next question is coming from Jorge Alonso from Société Générale. Please, Jorge go ahead.

Jorge Alonso
Analyst, Société Générale

Hi. I'm calling to take one question because we are running out of time.

So I would just like to know what is the expected impact on EBITDA from all the provisions you have taken and by when we could see that additional EBITDA. Thank you.

Luca Passa
CFO, Endesa

Thank you, Jorge. This is Luca. So obviously, we have taken several provisions. We have already a positive impact in 2020 of about between 80 and 90 million of lower basically OPEX. This obviously will pan out in the following years. We have roughly, I would say, between 50 and 60 million per year in terms of higher or lower personnel cost, obviously depending on when people will exit the company.

Mar Martínez
Head of Investor Relations, Endesa

Thank you, Jorge. Next question comes from Sara Piccinini from Mediobanca. Please, Sara. Go ahead.

Sara Piccinini
Analyst, Mediobanca

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just one, please. It's regarding the first renewable auction. We have seen low prices awarded at EUR 25 per MWh.

How do you see the profitability of these projects? And are you willing to accept similar or lower prices at the next auctions, or would you rather find another possibility for your new capacity, such as PPAs or going merchant? Thank you.

José Bogas
CEO, Endesa

Let me say, first of all, that it's very good news, this EUR 25 per MWh. To be honest, I am a little bit surprised with these very low prices that we are seeing because I think that, in my opinion, we are thinking about prices along the life of these power plants, talking about solar, something lower than 35, but higher than 30, and talking about wind closer to 40, I would say something between 36, 37 to 40.

But these prices, well, there are a lot of factors that should be considered: the life, the prices beyond the 12 years of the auction, and many, many, many things. So well, again, first of all, it's very good news. We will see what happened in the future. You should take into account also that more than 6.7 gigawatt was not included in the auction. So that means with prices higher, let's say, than EUR 30 per MWh. So we will see. But good news, a very good signal. And Luca, could you add something?

Luca Passa
CFO, Endesa

Yes. I mean, in terms of, let's say, our stance, as you know, we want 50 megawatt at the higher price, and that's on the basis of the returns we're willing to accept on our projects.

So we went into the auctions requiring basically the same returns on the project that we hedge with our customer base. And that's why basically we are not willing at the moment to get to the mid or median level of the prices of the last auction.

Mar Martínez
Head of Investor Relations, Endesa

Okay. Next question comes from Javier Garrido from J.P. Morgan.

Javier Garrido
Executive Director, JPMorgan

Morning. Just a quick question on the expected ruling of the European Court of Justice on the Spanish 7% energy tax. What would be the impact for you, for your numbers, if the tax were to be annulled? And what would be the impact on the tariff deficit and the system deficit? Thank you.

José Bogas
CEO, Endesa

Let me say, Javier, that first of all, being honest, I think that the impact would be nothing, nothing in the sense that the 7%, in my opinion, that we have charged to the customer, we have charged to the customer. So the real thing is that we are not we will not benefit for this change with the 7%. So we will see what happened or not. And it would be, in my opinion, bad news for the system, but not for the rest of the companies and utilities. So trying to summarize this 7%, well, we will see what happens.

Mar Martínez
Head of Investor Relations, Endesa

Okay. This was the last question of our call. So thank you to all of you. And as always, our department will be available in case you need or you have some follow-up questions. Have a nice day.

José Bogas
CEO, Endesa

Thank you.

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