Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the first quarter 2023 results presentation, which will be hosted by our CEO, José Bogas, and our CFO, Marco Palermo. Following the presentation, we will have the usual Q&A session open to those connected on the call and on the web. Thank you, and now let me hand over to José Bogas.
Thank you, Mar, and good morning, everybody. Let's start with the highlights of the period. During the first quarter of this year, we saw a significant reduction of gas market tensions that characterized 2022 and that have resulted in a certain relief in power prices. The sound operative performance and the firm commitment to decarbonization that led to the commissioning of new renewable capacity in the past 12 months, allowing us to reduce our sourcing costs. In this context, we have recorded an excellent set of results thanks to the resiliency and versatility of our business model, which clearly proves the competitive advantage of being an integrated player.
2023 Annual Shareholders' Meeting, held last April 28th, approved the distribution of a gross dividend of EUR 1.585 per share against 2022 results to be paid on July 3rd, implying a dividend yield of 9%. In that sense, I would like to mention that all proposed resolutions submitted to the general shareholders' meeting passed with a quorum of more than 84% of the shareholder base. On slide number four, we analyze the main dynamic of market context. During the first quarter, European gas references dropped sharply thanks to a milder winter, weak industrial consumption, and several gas demand reduction measures promoted by the European Union and implemented in different countries, all of which have ensured to maintain historically high levels of gas storage.
TTF spot reference was, on average, 46% down quarter-on-quarter. In turn, PBV reverted past a decoupling trend and recorded a similar evolution with 47% decrease over the same period. Accumulated mainland demand fell by 2.7%, clearly affected by energy-saving measures, the increase in self-consumption, and an abnormally mild winter. Endesa's mainland demand performed better and decreased by 2%, with services and residential segment trimming its demand by 3.9% and 2.1% respectively, due to the aforementioned effects. Against this backdrop, average spot power prices is in Iberia fell by 58%, driven by the comparatively more normalized gas inflow and record results of renewable output, thus limiting the application of the gas cap mechanism.
In this context of a beginning to return to normality, the European Commission has opted to maintain these time-limited measures in place as long as needed, reducing the risk of additional regulatory measures. Likewise, to prevent future energy crisis, such as the one experienced in 2022, the European Union has launched the discussion of electricity market reforms. There is no doubt that the main lesson learned is the need to accelerate the deployment of renewables in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and avoid new crisis. With this aim, and I am on slide number five, we continue to de-risk our generation capacity with which increased around 900 MW over the last 12 months, attaining new milestone in shifting our generation mix towards a cleaner one.
Renewable capacity is 10% higher than previous year, while CO2-free sources now represent 71% of our mainland installed capacity. It should be noted that around 100% of the 1.1 GW capacity addition target for 2023 is already in execution. Total mainland output reached 13 terawatt-hours, 4% higher than previous year, with a significant 32% increase in renewable production, allowing us to obtain a 83% share of CO2-free sources over total mainland mix. In the specific case of hydro production increased by 33%, 32%, recovering from an extraordinarily dry 2022 first quarter. Nevertheless, reservoir levels are currently below the 10-year average, and 2023 points to being yet another dry year.
On slide number six. Our successful commercial strategy enable us to consolidate the liberalized customer base with close to 0.5 million new customers in the last 12 months. This commercial approach that builds on protecting customers in a scenario of still high prices and volatility enable us to lead the Spanish market. As a consequence, liberalized power sales increased by 3%, offsetting the drop in regulated sales. More in detail, sales to B2C segment increased 13% versus the 1% decrease in B2B sales. In this sense, and in line with the proposed reform of the marginal market, we continue to develop our commercial offer on long-term energy sales to our industrial customer, which ensures their hedging against market volatility.
Finally, we further widen our range of service, and in particular, I would like to highlight that we continue to accelerate recharging points deployment, reaching more than 15,000, that is 51% up, that allows us to maintain a solid leadership position in Iberia. On slide number seven, free sales included within our integrated margin amounted to 19 terawatt hours, plus 2% versus previous year, with a strong increase of 9% in the fixed-price sales, while in index sales decreased by 16%, reverting the trend seen last year. Fixed-price sales were cover almost 80% by our CO2-free generation, ensuring a competitive cost of energy to our customer and providing further support to our integrated business commercial strategy.
Sound performance of free power margin that reached EUR 65 per MWh , more than double versus past year, mainly resulting from, first, the outstanding marginal thermal margin, which is still benefiting from a favorable market environment. Second, the higher renewable margin, thanks to hydro output recovery quarter-on-quarter, and the contribution of new installed capacity, which altogether have contributed to narrow pool purchases. Higher supply margin returning to normalization level of EUR 11 per MWh , fully recover from the negative margin of the first quarter of the last year, which was affected by sourcing cost increases not transferred to fixed-price customers. Finally, the positive result obtained in the management of the short position. Regarding forward sales, we continue to make sound progress in hedging energy sales to fixed-price customer for the coming years.
A focus on the gas business on slide number eight. Total gas sales remain flat, with a slight increase in retail demand offset by lower CCGT volumes compared to previous year. Total gas unitary margin significantly increased from EUR 1 per MWh to EUR 6 per MWh year on year, supported by a positive evolution of our gas business in a still favorable market context. Volumes hedged on our sourcing contract come to 87% and 35% for 2023 and 2024 respectively. Moving to the operational parameters on networks, and I am now on slide number nine, distributed energy remains stable in 33 terawatt hours. Our effort in digitalization of the distribution network resulted in higher quality grid, with the average time of interruption down by 12%.
However, despite all of our efforts, losses slightly increased as a result of a record- high levels of fraud seen in this period. Grids are the fundamental enabler of the energy transition, which have to manage not only new renewables asset capacity and charging points, but also the penetration of new distributed generation. In this regard, our e-distribución branch experienced a strong boost in 2022 and has already managed around 150,000 self-consumption connection to the grid. Therefore, huge investment are needed to guarantee security of supply. Given the current inflationary environment, it is particularly important to adapt the regulatory framework to ensure the attractiveness and stability of investment. Now I will hand over to Marco, who will detail the financial results.
Thank you, Pepe, and good morning to everybody. 2023 starts with a strong financial performance that proves the solidity of our business model. I'm on slide 11. EBITDA stood at EUR 1.5 billion, marking a 60% growth year-on-year, while the net ordinary income came it in around EUR 600 million. In an extraordinary quarter that still benefits from the inertia of the second half of 2022, something that we expect to be normalized over the course of the year. Main drivers of this performance will be detailed later on. Reported FFO improved 80% despite being impacted by a regulatory working capital increase. Finally, we continue with our investment effort to secure future EBITDA growth, with investments up to 2% reaching EUR 0.4 billion, clearly focusing on decarbonization and networks.
Turning now to the detailed analysis of financial results, I'm on slide 12. We posted an EBITDA close to EUR 1.5 billion, marking a sound 60% growth, mainly driven by the management of the integrated business, contributing more than EUR 700 million to the quarterly growth, with a positive evolution in conventional generation and renewable businesses, enjoying as well a normalization in the supply business, as Pepe mentioned before. Distribution EBITDA is slightly increased by 4% to EUR 451 million. Lastly, it should be stressed that EBITDA is impacted by the 1.2% extraordinary levy, which we have booked in the structure line in the gray color in the chart, and that's it, not passed to our customers. I will now dive into the EBITDA evolution. We are on slide 13.
Starting with the generation and supply business, we successfully managed the different market context in this period. EBITDA reached around EUR 1.2 billion, with a positive contribution of the free power margin of EUR 672 million. That is basically due to three things. First, a better marginality of the generation business, driven by higher thermal margin following 2022 inertia and infra-marginal volumes increase. Second, the expansion of the supply margin, now back to more normal levels, partially offset by higher ancillary services and shape costs, resulting in a unitary margin at approximately EUR 11 per MWh as commented before. Third, the positive contribution from short position management. Gas business improvement as well.
Lastly, a negative delta of EUR 51 million in other effects, which includes the negative net impact of mark-to-market gas and power, partially compensated by a higher contribution of the non-mainland business of EUR 53 million due to the recovery of the fuel margin compensation, that however remains negative. Fixed costs and others slightly increased, mainly explained by the inflationary context and higher activity. On slide 14, distribution EBITDA increased by 4% to EUR 451 million, explained by the positive delta of gross margin due to the negative previous year's resettlement booked in the first quarter of 2022, and a slight fixed cost increase as a result of some positive non-recurrent booked last year and CPI impact.
Below EBITDA, I'm on slide 15, net ordinary income came at EUR 594 million, up by 76% year-on-year on the back of the dynamics commented at EBITDA level. D&A grew by EUR 47 million year-on-year, mainly due to the investment effort carried out in renewables, distribution, and retail. While bad debt stays almost flat. Financial results increased by around EUR 100 million, mainly due to three things. Higher expenses on debt on the back of average gross debt increase, coupled with an interest rate worsening scenario affecting the cost of debt. Second, a negative delta from the financial update, both for the workforce restructuring and the dismantling provisions. Third, all of it partially offset by positive net exchange differences as a result of the favorable euro-dollar exchange rate evolution.
Rise in income taxes by EUR 160 million, mainly driven by better achieved results and the increase of effective rate up to 31% affected by the 1.2% revenue levy that is not deductible. At this point, it is worth highlighting the high tax contribution made by Endesa, which in 2022 increased by 28% versus previous year, and continues to rank among Spain's top three largest taxpayers with more than EUR 3,800 million of tax contribution. Moving to cash flow on slide 16. FFO recorded a slight negative figures, but with a sound improvement versus last year. Deep diving into the different dynamics that affected the working capital and others, regulatory working capital increased by around EUR 0.3 billion, most of it on non-mainland business.
EUR 0.6 billion negative impact from the usual first quarter seasonality additionally affected by high prices at the beginning of the year that is set to rebound in the next months. The temporary cash out impact on working capital from the collateral settlement in March amounting to EUR 0.3 billion. Let me highlight that the quarter-on-quarter EBITDA increase of roughly EUR 550 million has translated into an almost equivalent FFO improvement. Absolute FFO would have amounted to more than EUR 200 million positive net of regulatory working capital effects, which should improve over the year. I will now move on debt evolution on slide 17. Net debt stood at EUR 11.6 billion increasing by 6% versus previous year, impacted by the negative FFO already commented, and around EUR 600 million of CapEx cash outflows.
Worth to highlight that regulatory working capital stands now at EUR 2.6 billion. This is an abnormal situation that means accumulating a debt which tripled versus 2021, and that the regulator should be aware and seek to resolve in the short term, especially in the current rate context. Solid credit metrics in the period with leverage measured as net debt to EBITDA ratio remaining flat at 2x , well below the industry average. Adjusted FFO to net debt ratio at 32%, increasing by 2 percentage points versus last year. Gross debt decreased by 9% due to the sharp margin coal reduction of 37%. As a consequence of the recent rising progression in interest rates, the cost of our debt reached 2.8%.
Hedged debt ratio stands at 74% once deducted energy market cash collaterals, and once consider the recently AGM- approved intercompany transactions. Regarding the financial position on slide 18, the company is facing a revised scenario, both in the energy market and in the financial context, after multiple interest rate raises at fast pace. Following a volatile 2022, we have implemented a number of financial initiatives to strengthen the liquidity position, ensuring levels we find adequate both in the medium and long term. End of March, available liquidity amounts to EUR 10.8 billion, reinforced in early May with the recently executed EUR 1.1 billion credit line and EUR 1.9 billion loan, both executed with Enel. The first quarter closed with 3.2- year debt average life. Our aim is to further extend such ratio, providing a more flexible maturities profile.
We are quickly progressing to sign in the second quarter new bank long-term transaction for more than EUR 1 billion. Together with the already executed EUR 1.9 billion loan with Enel, the resulting ratio will be above four years. Let me now hand over to Pepe for the final conclusions.
Okay, thank you, Marco. Now, some closing remarks before the Q&A. 2023 starts with a strong operating and financial performance that proves how solid our business fundamental are, although we expect some normalization of thermal and gas margins over the course of the year. We continue to strive in our commitment to the energy transition in the development of new renewable capacity. Already in this first quarter, practically 100% of the target set for this year is under execution. All in all, this set of result and the high degree of visibility of the business evolution for the rest of the year supports our confidence in achieving 2023 target.
Finally, we would like to highlight the visible improvement in shareholder remuneration with an outstanding dividend yield of around 9%. This concludes our first quarter 2023 result presentation. I think we can now open the Q&A session.
Yes, sure. Thank you, Pepe. Thank you, Marco. We are now open to answer all the questions you may have.
The telephone Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press star five on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star five again on your telephone keypad. Please ensure your phone is not muted.
Okay. First questions comes from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs.
Thank you, Mar. Good morning. I have three questions, please. The first one is specifically on the numbers. I mean, it seems to me that some of the conditions that help you deliver very strong numbers in Q1 kept repeating in April. You know, prices very low during weekends, quite a lot of volatility. I'm trying to gauge why you stress continuously a normalization throughout the year, but it looks like you're trailing way above guidance on earnings. My question is, what is it that is worrying you right now? You know, is it considering what you just delivered, you know, with the EUR 200 million tax booked in? Is it because maybe some energy management or trading profits cannot be repeated? I don't know if you can quantify those for Q1.
Maybe you're very worried about refinancing, or is it just a matter of we never change guidance at Q1, let's see at the end of July, bear with us. The second question is, what is happening to the 40 GW renewables that have already received environmental approval, the DIA, in January? Do you think they will all be approved by July from an administrative perspective? Do you think the construction permits will follow suit? How many of those do you believe can actually be developed in Spain? What do you think is going to happen to the power price by 2025, based on your answer?
Perhaps, really the last question here is, can you give us maybe a bit more clarity on the timing of the recovery of the regulatory, working capital, and can that be an incremental offset to maybe some of the refinancing pressure you're going to see? Thank you so much.
Okay. Thank you very much. Let me try to give some color about the question, and then I will give the word to Marco just to explain more precisely this question. When you ask us about what are we worry about in the future and you mention normalization, what I should say is that this first quarter 2023 has been extraordinary. Extraordinary because many things, but let me highlight three. One is the thermal margin that we have got in this first quarter due to the exceptional conditions and due to the hedging that we did in the past year. The second is the increase just because of the normalization of the supply margin.
The third I would say is how we have managed the short position. It's gonna be the same context in the rest of the quarter. Well, we think no. It is very early just to say that or not, but in our case, we are thinking about that it has been a little bit extraordinary. Although we confirm and we feel very comfortable with our guidance, and I would say perhaps even in the high range of our guidance, we prefer to be cautious and to see how this year evolve. With regard to the 40 GW of renewables and how many, let me say something.
Well, I think that the record of construction in Spain, in one year is 5 GW. That means that it would be in the next two years and a half, we should think something around, let's say, 15 GW . In any case, you could increase that, and I think it's gonna be increase this figure, but it's gonna be very, very difficult just to get, in my opinion, this 40 GW of renewable in operation. Also the net working capital, Marco.
If you allow me just to give a few more numbers, Alberto. Good morning. You know, on the one on normalization, I mean, of course, you know, we have to remember that we are in the first quarter. But yes, you're right. I mean, you know, we feel comfortable on EBITDA particularly, you know. There are still component in the first quarter that we think,
Should not, you know, should not be replicable, we will see. In particular, I would say on the thermal margin around EUR 200 million, on the short position approximately EUR 100 million, and on the gas margin EUR 100 million, so totaling, you know, EUR 0.4 million. Of course, you know, this is looking at the situation right now. It can happen that there is, I don't know, some tension in France on the nuke and the thermal margin rises again, and so on. I mean, we are thinking that everything stops here at the first quarter, but we will see, we will see in the near future.
As I said, I mean, this is the reason why we continue to stress it on normalizing. Yes, we feel very comfortable on the EBITDA particular. On the regulatory working capital, the third question, the timing of recovery. I mean, frankly, you know, this increase of another EUR 300 million in the regulatory working capital, we were not expecting an increase, okay? We do see some recovery this year. Of course, we have been very prudent in our estimation, but we think that, you know, we should be somehow recovering part of it along 2023. Thank you for your question.
Okay. Thank you, Alberto. next questions comes from Manuel Palomo from Exane BNP.
Hello, Mar. Hello, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I will stick to three. First one is on the margins. We've seen a significant increase in margins from EUR 1 per MWh -EUR 6 per MWh in gas, EUR 30 per MWh-EUR 65 per MWh in electricity. If I recall well, last year, 2022, electricity margin, unit time margin was at 42. I mean, given the volatility, when you talk about a normalization, to be honest, I'm not sure where it could land by year-end, and any reference that you could give us would be very welcome. That is number one. Second one that I have is about, well, an update.
Asking you an update on the potential sale of a portfolio of gas assets that your parent company announced back in November. I wonder whether you could, at least, well, share a bit of light on what will be the assets that could... I mean, you would be considering selling. The last one, it's on the, on the evolution of the supply clients. We've seen a significant increase year on year. However, the figure is pretty flattish versus full year 2022. I think it's at 6.8 million.
I wonder whether you could share with us what is the company's strategy towards the evolution of supply clients, whether you are being or not aggressive with your market, with your campaigns to well, capturing new clients. Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Manuel. Again, let me give you some clues of your question, and then Marco will answer more precisely. Talking about margin, you're right, we have increased the gas margin from 1 to 6, and we have increased the integrated margin up to EUR 65 per MWh . It's gonna be the same at the end of the year. Being honest, I think it's gonna be high, but not as high as the first quarter. This is why we have said that we are expecting a certain normalization. As Marco has said, we will see what happen or what not happen. In any case, I should say that during this first quarter, all the context had been very good for us. We will see.
Our expectation is higher margin versus the previous year, but not as higher as we got in the first quarter. With regard to the potential sale of gas asset, we are studying this. The context has changed a lot. When we decided just to look for the possibility, yes, to sell some asset, gas asset, prices of TTF, et cetera, if I remember well, were higher than EUR 100 per MWh . Today, lower than EUR 40 to EUR 50 per MWh. The context has changed a lot. There are some interests. We had some contact, and there are some interests, but we need, yeah, really to understand this context just to take or to go ahead with the next step.
In any case, we continue thinking about that, at the end of the year, we will sell this, or part of this, our portfolio of gas asset. We will see. We will see. We want just to really understand the context. With regard to the customer evolution, I should say that, well, the year 2022 was an extraordinary year in which we got
We increase a lot our customer base. It is true that things have changed a little at the beginning of this year. The first thing is that what we have seen is an increase in competition. This increase in competition of our competitors offset our acquisition trend, that we have continued with this acquisition trend during this first quarter. The losses due to the increase in competition of our competitors has decreased, almost has been flat our evolution. We are thinking about, for us, the customer are very, very important, within, as we have said many, many times, that customer and sustainability will be the two important thing in the future for any company. We will try, yes, at least to maintain our customer base.
As always, trying not to entry in a price war. Trying just to reactivate our campaigns to attract more customers. We are not worried about this situation. Let me say that we increased a lot our customer base the last year, so we are maintaining with, if you allow me, better marginality of this customer in the future. Marco?
Yes. Thank you, Pepe. Manuel, on your first question on margin, just to give you a few numbers, I would say that we do expect for what is the free power unit and margin, 2023, around EUR 48 per MWh . Basically in line, even slightly higher than what we have seen, you were correctly mentioning, in 2022 of EUR 42 per MWh. In terms of gas, I would say that, you know, we do not expect to stay on this EUR 6 per MWh , but not even lowering down to the minimum of the first quarter of EUR 1 or that has been also the minimum in 2021 of EUR 1. We will be something in the middle. In terms of clients, I mean, you know, the...
Just to give a few numbers, I mean, we have not campaigning hardly in the first quarter. Actually, we have been saving CapEx there. Still, we have seen a slight increase in the liberalized customers. I mean, I think that we do see still the trend affecting last year that are continuing maybe at a slower pace. We do see that this could be another, you know, good year in terms of of of of acquisition of liberalized customer, because still there is a kind of a movement between the regulator, coming from the regulator rate tariff to the liberalized tariff. Thank you.
Okay. We move now to Jorge Guimarães from JB Capital. Please, Jorge, go ahead.
Good morning. I have two questions. The first one is a follow-up on gas. If you can explain to us why is the market so high if the dynamics are the same as in electricity because of the time lag between the setting of prices and the cost that you book. The second one is a clarification on the working capital movement. I believe you mentioned that it was EUR 0.3 billion from a temporary effect of some settlements in March. If you can clarify on that and to understand how much of that is temporary and how much would unwind later in the year. Thank you very much.
Okay, Jorge. Let me say something about the second question. Well, regarding the working capital, we have today EUR 2.6 billion regulatory working capital. We have today EUR 2.6 billion. Let me say that a normal situation would mean to have less than EUR 1 billion. That means that we have an extraordinary regulatory working capital of more than EUR 1.6 billion. This should be, let me use the same word, normalized. We really think that it's gonna be normalized. We have some discussion with the ministry, with the regulator. The good news, well, this is something that we have got in the remuneration, mainly in Iberia. That means that Iberia, the evolution are in the right direction.
Some years ago, we have some problems with the recognition of some of the costs, et cetera. Well, we have passed this situation, and we feel comfortable with that. The bad news, well, there is some kind of adjustment of the remuneration that creates this working capital, regulatory working capital. We are, as I have said, trying just to speed up this remuneration in, and we hope that in the next month, we will have good news about this. Marco.
Yes, Jorge. Basically on your first question on gas, we are still benefiting from the winds of the end of last year. With some of the edges that we did, that's why it's positive. That's why we believe that will not be so positive for the rest of the year. In terms of working capital, actually, it has been a kind of a perfect storm because whatever you see on the chart is basically a kind of non-recurrent. What to expect for the future? Basically, you know, on regulatory working capital, we expect to see it in the next quarter, but exactly the other way around. Recovering it at least partially.
In terms of the seasonality, I mean, we do see this reverting, and of course we have the numbers of April, we are seeing also May, so we know that this is going exactly the other way around. In terms of the cash-out impact for the collateral settlements, actually, it was, you know, temporary at the end of the month. This of course has turned the other way in April. Basically, I mean, it's, we do see this, and we have evidence of this turning the other way around.
Thank you, Jorge. Next questions comes from Rob Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley.
Hi. Good morning. Thank you. I have one question, and that's regarding the government interventions that you've seen in Spain. Could you provide a bit of an update as to your expectations as to when they expire or get extended? There's been a lot of talk across Europe that obviously with commodity prices having fallen, that some of these interventions may be less necessary. It'd be great to hear your perspective. Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you for the question. First of all, let me say that I think that gas and power prices have notably fallen from the record high levels that we saw the past year. I don't like to say that the energy crisis are over because it's not real, but we feel we are in a better context than the previous year. Nevertheless, there are still important, in my opinion, uncertainties that makes a sense just to maintain some measures in the event of something happen with this crisis, in my opinion. The important thing is just to work in the future.
What I mean work in the future is how to develop the networks, how to incentivize this investment in network, how to resolve the bottlenecks that we have in the deployment of renewables, how to improve the market, I mean, the market before trying to give more or trying to benefit from what we know very well, the margin, marginalized market and improving the long-term contract with customer, trying to avoid volatility, et cetera. This is the most important thing that we should do.
In the meantime, just to extend during the year 2023 some measures just to take care about if, just in case could happen something, just to mitigate the impact to the customer, I agree with this position, but again, this measure should be avoid as soon as possible, and we should work in the real important thing for the future, which is how to incentivize the investment, how to incentivize the transition to net zero mix of generation and net zero also contamination in the sense of electrification, et cetera. That is the important thing.
We move now to the next analyst, José Ruiz from Barclays.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just have two. They're focused on working capital. Sorry to insist on that. The first one is focused on the first quarter. I would like to understand. You said in the presentation that you had a EUR 53 million improvement in the islands. Do I understand that instead of EUR 305 million, which was the actual number, you were expecting EUR 358 million? Is that because the cost of fuel went down? The second question is going forward. You're saying that EUR 305 million will go down, so it will progress to a number lower than EUR 305 million. Is that correct? Is this going to be driven by lower cost of fuels, or are you expecting an increase in tariffs? Thank you very much.
Thank you, José. Marco speaking. Basically, let me clarify a bit. First of all, on the EUR 305 million of working regulatory, working capital, almost all is coming from the island, correct. What we do see is this is coming because still, there is a negative effects on fuel and, you know, basically, we are not recovering, we are not recovering, all the cost of the fuels as it should be. Of course, there has been an improvement versus last year with what was published in December. You know, we fixed basically the gas cost. There is still something to be done on fuels. Okay?
Now, what we do expect for the future, for the future months, for the future quarters, we do expect that we will start to recovery the working capital, the EUR 2.6 billion of working capital that we have been accumulating along years for the effect of this gap between what we pay, what are our real costs, and what is then recognized to us. Okay? Of this basket of EUR 2.6 billion, we believe that in the next quarters we will recover some. Okay? We are kind of conservative at the beginning. We hope that it will be better at the end. We hope that this will be recovered because this has been accumulating over the years.
Some of the years, some of the settlement will be decided along the 2023, at the end should be recovered. In terms of margin on the islands, as we said, yes, I mean, they are improving, not as they should at the end. We really hope that we could end up fixing also the rest of the fuel in the islands in order for us to recover fully the cost of fuels. Thanks.
We have now, Javier Suárez from Mediobanca.
Thank you, Mar, and many thanks for the presentation. Two or three remaining questions. The first one is on the big picture and the European debate on the market reform. The question for the CEO, if you can give us an update on that European debate and Endesa's position on that ongoing debate. Related to that question also, on how do you see that affecting the contracting of Endesa going forward? How do you see that the PPA contracting impacting Endesa in the medium to long term as a way to stabilize the business? That is the first question. The second question is on a comment that has been made during the presentation on the reservoirs.
The drought is likely to be intense in 2023. How do you see that impacting your target for 2023? What are the other factors that are compensating for the drought if effectively the drought in 2023 is higher than initially expected? The final question is on the debt on slide 17, there has been a decrease that I guess is corresponding to the decrease in commodity prices in cash collateral. Now it stand by the end of first quarter, EUR 4.2 billion. If you can share with us, how do you see that number being by the year-end?
Also a related question, there has been an increase in the cost of debt to 2.8%. How do you see the cost of debt for the company by the year-end? I'm making this question because during the presentation you mentioned to be particularly comfortable with the EBITDA guidance. Is that commonly imply that maybe by the bottom line it's a little bit more tricky because of increasing financial costs? Many thanks.
Okay. Thank you, Javier. I will try just to answer the first one, then Marco will answer the second and the third. With regard to the market reform, first of all, I think that we need a market reform. That is clear. We need this market reform because the mix, the generation mix is changing a lot, and at the end of this trip, let me say if all the technologies are infra-marginal or renewable technologies, we need to have a different market. Having said that, I think that what we have today had been working very well. We have some difficulties for the future, for the future in the sense that we are changing this mix generation.
On that sense, in my opinion, I think that we should maintain the positive aspect of the market that we have today and to try to have an evolution, mainly in the future, prices and contract, trying to incentivize these future prices and so forth. In any case, we have said many times that this reform should be homogeneous at the European level, and carried out in our opinion, with the highest degree of consensus. That means that no particular solution should be put in operation, because in our opinion, this could break the market.
One of the strengths of the European Union is this unitary market, energy, of energy. With regard to the proposal of the European Union, we have a positive feedback on this proposal presented by the European Commission. As I have said, it doesn't imply a discontinuity, but an evolution, I would say, of the current market. Avoid the price intervention on generation and incentivize a longer-term contract in the market. We will see what happens and the discussion that we will have or the European Union will have in the next month. We have a positive feedback on this proposal.
Javier, thank you. Marco. Basically, on hydro. On hydro, the situation, the second question, the situation for us is that, you know, our hydro reservoirs are filled at 30% of their total capacity. Yes, it is true that basically there is not so much water, not so much snow on the Ebro region, that is the one where the most part of our hydropower plants exists. Do we see a situation like last year? No. The truth, we don't see such a draw like last year, but where we actually produced 3.5 terawatt-hours of hydro. On the other side, we do not see exactly what we were forecasting, so the 6 terawatt-hours of hydro production. What we do expect?
We do expect to stay approximately around 4 terawatt-hours of hydro production at the end of the year. That means that somehow we're, you know, losing, we are having an effect of approximately EUR 50 per MWh on these 2 terawatt-hours, so approximately EUR 100 million less. Just to remind you that last year, given that of course it was EUR 3.5 billion and there was also an effect of over-hedging on this hydro, we ended up having a negative effect of a bit less of EUR 200 million. I mean, that's those are the kind of effects that we are forecasting for the end of the year. Coming to the cash collaterals and then again to the guidelines.
On cash collaterals, yes, they went down to EUR 4.2 billion at the end of the quarter. Now this number is even lower. If you look at it today, it's EUR 3.5 billion, so it's going down, you know, at a very fast pace. What we do expect for the future? I mean, we do expect this trend to continue, but at a lower pace. Of course, we can't exclude that there is a rebound on prices, on gas prices. I mean, in that case, this number probably will not go down so fast. That's why, coming to your question about guidelines and about EBITDA, we are very confident, I would say, on the EBITDA.
While in net income, that's why we are continue to somehow confirming our guidelines, there is this question mark related to the real cost of debt at the end. It's, it's a doubt on the amount of debt and as well also of the cost, because still we have a part of our debt, you know, that is that is anchored to variable. It has to be said that with the last transaction that we are executing, the fixed cost, the fixed part of our debt will be around 70%. We are, you know, open on the 30% on the variable.
That's why basically, you correctly pointed out, we are very confident on EBITDA level, when it comes to net income, we confirm our guidelines.
Okay, thank you. Next questions comes from Jorge Alonso from Société Générale .
Hi, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I would like to make a follow-up on the financial costs, just to understand what could be the financial results expectations for 2023, or at least to know this impact of the dismantling and workforce provisions were in Q1, right? The other question is regarding just to confirm that in the end on the hydro, you have already hedged all the expectations and now it will be this short of 2 terawatt-hours by the end of the year?
Finally, a view about renewable capacity installation in 2024 and 2025, because it's expected to be an acceleration versus 2023 levels. How visible is this? If this is because you have bigger projects in those years, because you have seen an acceleration in the permitting, or you expect more capabilities to be put in place in order to really deliver a materially high amount of megawatts in 2024 and 2025. Thank you very much.
Okay, thank you, Jorge. I will try to answer the third one question related to the renewables deployment. As you know, our plan is just to put in operation 1 GW in the year 2023, 1.5 GW in the year 2024, and 1.8 GW in the year 2025. As we have mentioned before, almost the 1 GW of the year 2023 are under execution. We feel comfortable that if nothing strange happen, we will reach this position or set this 1 GW into operation during the year 2023.
We have launched some managerial action just to guarantee the human resources needed, just to guarantee the different elements that we need just to go ahead with this fleet in the future. Let me say, we feel also very comfortable with the 1.5 GW and 1.8 GW, but it is true that just because of the huge amount of capacity that should has been approved and should be put into operation in the next years up to, if I'm right, July of 2025, we are trying to secure our construction, trying just because we are an integrated company, trying just to discuss with the different suppliers, and trying to guarantee, as I have said this.
We will see, but in any case, we feel comfortable with this development of renewables.
Jorge , regarding your first question and second question. The first one, on financial costs. Actually, what we do see by year-end is something slightly higher than what we commented during our Capital Markets Day. Basically, we're there, we are talking about EUR 400 million, and we are slightly above that number. As I said, because it could be both an effect of volumes and costs, so price and volumes. And in terms of hydro, actually with what we are forecasting, there is no overage effect for the time being. With this condition, I mean, our effect is only that we are losing production and we are losing the margin.
That's why, of course, I mean, given that it's proven that, you know, as much renewables as we plug in and as much as we fill our short position, we earn money. That's why there is somehow we are trying to accelerate on the renewable installed capacity. Thank you.
Okay. Rob Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley is back with some further questions. Please, Rob, go ahead.
Yes, I'm back. Thank you. Apologies if you have commented on this, but I didn't think anyone had asked about the regulatory review of 2020 to 2022 distribution revenues. I believe there was a suggestion that there could be a EUR 160 million charge relating to this. Could you just please clarify to what extent this is accurate, and when we could actually hear a timing in terms of resolving that particular topic? Thank you very much and apologies if it has been covered earlier. I may have missed it.
Sorry. Thank you, thank you for the question. Let me say that we are discussing with the CNMC about this remuneration. You should take into account that there had been change in the responsibilities of the ministry in the responsibilities of the CNMC. Let me say in a colloquial way, just to say that the CNMC increased the responsibilities going beyond the audit responsibility to a really regulator of the distribution. In that chain, some kind of misunderstanding has happened. I should say this is the reason why we are discussing the remuneration of some kind of investment, like the digitalization that we have done.
When we talk about iron, it's very easy for the CNMC just to really know what should be the standard or not. When we talk about software, let me say that it's more difficult. In any case, we feel confidence with the conversation that we have with the CNMC just to get a solution for all these kind of things. We are confident that we will recover as always the main amount of our investment.
Nothing with regard to the first suggestions that the investment are not the real one that we need, et cetera. Summarizing again, well, we are improving the relationship with the CNMC in this new role that they are playing, and we are confident that we will recover our investments.
Okay, thank you, Rob. Now we will answer a couple of questions that we have received by email. Peter Bisztyga from Bank of America is asking if we can give some color on the short position book in the first quarter, and also our expectation for the full year guidance. Thank you.
In terms of EBITDA of the short position impact on the quarter, the short position impact is around EUR 150 million in the quarter. What we do see for the rest of the year is that probably this will be positive at the end of the year for, you know, something above EUR 300 million. As you've seen, it's, you know, one higher impact in the first quarter, and we are not forecasting just to have the very same impact, but on the following quarters.
On guidelines, well, as I said, in our, in our guidelines, we are now assuming, you know, our low contribution from the short position, so something approximately around EUR 300 million.
Okay. With this, we end our conference call. Thank you very much for participating, and have a nice day.