Good morning, everybody, and welcome to the Nine Month 2023 Results presentation, which will be hosted by José Bogas, our CEO, and Marco Palermo, the CFO. Following the presentation, we will have the usual Q&A session open to those connected on the call and on the web. We kindly ask you to limit your question to the financial and operational performance of the company during the period, and to wait until the 23rd of November for the Strategic Plan update. And now, thank you, and let me hand over to José Bogas.
Hey thank you Mar and good morning, everybody. Let us start with the highlight of the period. 2023 has been characterized by a gradual normalization of the extraordinary market and energy condition seen in 2022. In this context, we recorded an EBITDA of EUR 3.4 billion, slightly lower than in the nine month of 2022, heavily affected by negative delta of non-recurring impact, which we will detail later on. Without these effects, EBITDA, like-for-like, would have grown by 7%. FFO reached EUR 2.8 billion, with an outstanding improvement, thanks to the normalization of the negative market dynamics that affected the evolution of working capital last year. Finally, Endesa has distributed to its shareholder a gross dividend of around EUR 1.59 per share against 2022 results.
This dividend implies an additional 9% dividend yield to the stock market performance, bringing the total accumulated return in 2023 to 18.3%. On slide number four, you can see the solid development of the main operative indicator across all businesses. Mainland renewable capacity stand at around 9.3 GW, up 0.8 GW over the past year, with an emission-free output of 79%. It should be noted that in August, we received the green light to shut down As Pontes power plant, taking the plant out of operation at the beginning of October. This closure will make way for the company's Futur- e plan in the area, aimed at developing renewable project, as well as reinforcing our social commitment commitment within the region.
The set of fixed price contract covered with emission-free sources is slightly reduced by the greater proportion of fixed-price sales. The number of customers in the liberalized market remain stable at 6.9 million, consolidating our leadership position. We continue to accelerate the deployment of charging station, which increased by around 50% in the last 12 months, showing our commitment to drive demand, electrification. Continued improvement in network quality metric, with an interruption time reduction of 4% versus the previous year. On slide number five, we summarize how market dynamic evolved over the period. European gas references have remained stable, consolidating the EUR 40 per MWh floor. TTF and PVB spot reference prices were down by 69% and 64% year-on-year. Despite this hard drop, prices still remain high.
In Iberia, average spot electricity prices were down 51% due to the reduction in commodity prices, the falling demand, and the record level of renewable energy production. Mainland demand decreased by 4.4%, strongly influenced by the combined effect of the economic slowdown, a slowdown that lies behind industrial and small and medium business demand destruction, and higher self-consumption, which accounts for 1% of this drop. Demand in Endesa's area decreased by 3.4%. On slide six, sales to liberalized customer with the scope of our free power margin amounted to 57 TWh, out of which fixed price sales increased by 6% to 40 TWh, 75% made by our CO2-free generation.
Solid development of free power margin, we reached EUR 54 per MWh , which shows a gradual normalization for early years record, mainly resulted from, first, the generation margin improvement, mainly due to better achieved prices in renewables, with a thermal margin increase in a favorable market context. Second, the normalization of supply margin, attaining levels around EUR 13, EUR 13. And lastly, the positive result obtained in the management of our short position. On the forward sales side, we continue to make steady progress in hedging energy sales, with more than 90% already closed for 2024. Now, on slide number seven, let's focus on the evolution of the gas margin, which compare negatively with last year outstanding results. Demand at country level recorded a 13% drop.
In this context, our total gas sales were down 8%, mainly as a result of the normalization of CCGT load factor and a decline in conventional demand of our clients, sorry, of our clients in the Iberia market that has been compensated for by sales in other market. Total gas unitary margin decreased year-on-year, reaching a -EUR 3 per MWh, essentially due to, first, the effect of the above-mentioned conventional demand reduction compared to contracted volumes, has resulted in a negative effect, and that has had an impact throughout the year and affects, in particular, the second and third quarter. Second, some inefficiency that arose in the hedging strategy due to exceptional and temporary mismatches between TTF and PVB, closed at the end of the last year for 2023, affecting mainly in the second and the third quarter.
And lastly, other non-recurrent effect booked in the third quarter. It is important to stress that the weakness of the third quarter result will not be repeated to the same extent during the fourth quarter, when we expect a strong gas rebound, supported by a high level of visibility, allowing a return to positive levels and partially neutralizing the nine month figure. And now, I will hand over to Marco, who will detail the financial results.
Thank you, Pepe, and good morning, everybody. As commented before, EBITDA reached EUR 3.4 billion, slightly lower than previous year in comparable terms. While net ordinary income came in around EUR 1.1 billion, 20% lower than previous year because of financial cost increase and higher taxes. On the other hand, FFO is robust and accounts for EUR 2.8 billion, improving by EUR 2.3 billion versus previous year, mainly due to the normalization of working capital that was heavily affected by the market context in 2022, as we will see later on charts. Moving to the main drivers of the EBITDA growth, I'm now on slide 10.
First of all, it is worth to highlight that the EBITDA evolution has been negatively impacted by the delta of non-recurring items for EUR 364 million. You can see in gray color on the chart. The EUR 1.2 billion extraordinary levy negative impact was recorded in 2023, while in 2022 it was booked the positive effect of the social bonus, both of them affecting the structure line of the P&L. If we strip out these effects, EBITDA would have increased by 7%. The generation and supply results, in the dotted box on the chart, remained almost flat versus previous year, with a positive performance in supply, recovering from extraordinary low levels of last year.
Renewable increase, thanks to higher volumes at better prices, and these positives were offset by the deterioration of conventional generation, in particular of gas margins, as I will summarize in the next chart. Networks stood at EUR 1.4 billion, up by EUR 230 million, in the absence of negative resettlements that we booked last year. Overall, gross CapEx amounted to EUR 1.5 billion, in line with previous year, with 76% devoted to our main strategic pillars: renewable deployment and network digitalization. If we move now into a deeper analysis on chart 11, generation and supply EBITDA reached EUR 2.2 billion, flat versus previous year, with a sound increase of the free power margin by EUR 882 million, as Pepe has just commented, with all the components providing positive results.
The gas business recorded a negative change year- on- year for around EUR 700 million when compared with last year's outstanding results. The negative performance seen in the nine months is explained by a weak retail margin, affected by lower demand and inefficiencies in some derivatives, as was mentioned before. I want to stress here that the weakness of the third quarter results will not be repeated to the same extent during Q4, and we have ample visibility that gas results in the last quarter will show a significant rebound back into positive territory. Lastly, other margin decreased by EUR 122 million, mainly explained by the negative net impact of mark-to-market, partially offset by positive contribution of the non-mainland business, with better recognition of fuel margin. And finally, a slight increase in fixed cost, largely due to the inflationary context and higher activity.
On slide 12 now, distribution EBITDA increased by 20% to EUR 1.362 billion, explained by a positive delta of gross margin due to the negative one-offs recorded in 2022 of around EUR 200 million, and a slight fixed cost improvement. Continuing with the analysis of the results, now going below EBITDA on slide 13, net ordinary income amounted to around EUR 1.1 billion, down 28% compared to previous year, reflecting the dynamics observed at EBITDA level, and strongly impacted by the increase in D&A and provisions by EUR 128 million, year-on-year, mainly due to higher investment in renewables, distribution, and retail, and an increase in bad debt figures as a result of worsening collections from residential and B2B customers.
Net financial results increased by EUR 284 million on the back of a higher financial cost, as a result of higher interest rate market environment affecting the cost of debt. The average gross debt remains stable, thanks to the collaterals reduction. A negative delta from the financial provision update, only partially offset by positive net exchange differences. There is also a decline in income taxes by EUR 149 million, driven by lower results, while the tax rate increased to 29%, heavily affected by the non-deductible through revenue levy. Finally, minorities decreased by EUR 28 million. Turning to cash flow, and now on chart 14, FFO reached EUR 2.8 billion in absolute terms, showing a sound improvement compared to last year, thanks to the positive working capital dynamics.
In particular, the regulatory working capital continues to improve in the third quarter, recovering EUR 0.7 billion from the negative peak recorded in Q1, mainly thanks to the collection of settlements related to the non-mainland systems. Positive impacts also from the net trade receivables and payables due to energy and commodity price normalization, which recovers from the unusual market environment in 2022. All this was partially offset by an increase in tax payments as a consequence of better results in 2022, and by higher net financial expenses paid. I would now like to turn to the evolution of debt on slide 15. Net debt came in at EUR 11.6 billion. Over the period, the FFO contributed positively to net debt evolution for EUR 2.8 billion, more than enough to cover this period's investments.
Dividends paid last July amounted to EUR 1.7 billion. Gross debt decreased by 24%, driven by a strong reduction in collateral requirements. Moreover, the cost of our debt remained at 3%, so in line with our first half 2023, following the substantial increase in interest rates in the first months of the year. Finally, our financial management shows strong credit metrics over the period. Net debt to EBITDA leverage remains at healthy levels, while FFO to net debt ratio stands at 34%, up 19 percentage points year- to- date. And now, let me hand over to Pepe for the final conclusions.
Okay, and thank you, Marco. Now some closing remarks before the Q&A. As we were previously anticipating, the nine month results are in line with our expectation, including a correction in the third quarter in the gas margin, offset by the strong performance in the power business. Cash flow generation remained even stronger than historical levels, thanks to the recovery of the negative impact that affected the working capital last year, as well as effective financial management. Overall, we remain on track to achieve the 2023 target, underpinned by the high level of visibility of business development for the rest of the year. On November the 23rd, we will present an update of the business plan, where we will unpack the strategic vision we foresee for the company for the next three years.
This concludes our Nine Month 2023 Results presentation, and I think we can now open the Q&A session.
Thank you, Pepe. Thank you, Marco. And now we are open to answer all the questions you may have.
The telephone Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press star five on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star five again on your telephone keypad. Please ensure your phone is not muted.
Okay, first question comes from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Please, Alberto, go ahead.
Thank you Mar. Good morning everybody. I have three, please. The first one is on your 2023 guidance, and I appreciate that you just basically just reiterated right now, but is there any narrowing of the guidance you can provide. Do you see yourself more at the top- end, midpoint, low- end? And perhaps could you comment on what's going on to refinancing? And, you know, if you don't want to comment on the guidance, maybe be more specific on refinancing costs, provisions mark to market, and maybe gas losses in the quarters, that we can make our own assessment for, for Q4. The second question is on slide six. I saw that you're talking about supply margins going from about, I believe, EUR 5 per MWh to 13, and you talk about well-hedged 2024.
So do you think that, on electricity, that level of mid-teens supply margin is a sustainable figure into 2024? I'm just trying to gauge where supply would be once normalized for gas losses, into next year. And my third question is, not anticipating your capital markets day, so I'm just trying to understand your mindset and your philosophy here, no numbers, just conceptually. Do you still believe it makes sense to continue to develop renewables in Spain?
Or is it better at this point in the cycle to stay capital light, maybe boost the PPA portfolio as a client, you know, you sign PPAs, and maybe wait to acquire any operator that could become distressed over the next two, three years, given, you know, the big pipelines and capital requirements, to finance that, that development, you know, in light of interest rates? So, I guess the question is: Is the current credit environment, leading to a shift in the way you're thinking about renewable development? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Alberto. I will try just to give some clues and then, Marco, please, go deeper in this. First of all, the guidance. Well, we maintain our confidence in reaching the guidance, and I would say we continue in the upper range of these guidance. Marco will explain the gas losses, the refinancing, et cetera. With regard to the supply margin, I would say that EUR 50 per MWh will be sustainable in the future. If you allow me, I hope just to improve this by means of many measures that we will implement or we are implementing in the future. But really, it is sustainable.
With regard to the third question about the development of the renewables, I would say that our strategic point is to continue following the energy transition and then supporting the distribution investment and the renewable investment. It is true that the market is changing. It is true that there are some regulatory items pending, mainly the design of the market model in the future. But we are confident, as far as we know how it's involved with the discussion in this design and new model, that it will be absolutely, we will face the condition, yes, to continue developing the renewables.
It is true that we should optimize the context, and in that sense, one of our pillars also is the strength in our financial position. For sure, it's gonna be a huge effort just to reach this energy transition. So we will do our best, but maintaining our financial strength in the future. Marco, could you explain a little bit more?
Thank you Pepe. Ciao, Alberto. So basically, I guess that Pepe answered all, but let me give you some numbers on that. On the first one, you were asking for guidelines. I guess that Pepe was clear on that, but just to highlight a few numbers for you just to take into consideration. Regarding the refinancing costs, you should assume something around EUR 550 million as a total cost for the financing in the year 2023. And when it comes to D&A, you should think about another quarter that would be probably in line with the current one, so bringing us basically between EUR 1.9 billion and EUR 2 billion in terms of D&A.
When we go to the power margin, you know, you were referring to this 13. Yes, I mean, it's without anticipating anything, but at least talking about 2024, that's what we are seeing also for the near future. Regarding the third question, I guess that it would deserve a long talk. But here the point is that, you know, trying to answer, you know, without giving too much details, is that, as you have probably seen, we recently signed a PPA with Solaria. It was a small one, but we came back in signing PPAs in buy.
If you see our development in terms of megawatts along the year, probably we will end up, you know, installing less, so spending, you know, probably installing less megawatt than we thought, because we are somehow, you know, it's not wait and see, but, but it's somehow taking, you know, as maybe as lower pace. So, you know, this should give you probably some, some hints about what we are, what we are now thinking. But this will be somehow discussed during the Capital Markets Day, and that will, that will be the right, the right place to have this, this kind of talk.
Thank you, Alberto. We move now to Manuel Palomo from Exane BNP Paribas.
Hi, thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. I same as Alberto, well, two to three. The first one is on the cost of debt. I see that it's now at 3% versus 1.4% one year ago, but also I see that maturities for the year 2024 are standard, EUR 4.5 billion. So, my question is, after what we are seeing in terms of big increase in financial charges, what we could expect going forward? At least if you could provide with some detail on the amount of the debt which is already fully fixed or hedged. Second question is on the gas margins.
On the gas margins, we see that the margin year to date, it's -EUR 3 MWh versus EUR 6 MWh last year. Understand that part of this is due to the correlation between the TTF and the PVB. So my question is whether you have or you will change your hedging strategy as a result of this year's decorrelation between these two indexes? And the last one is a bit of detail on the last PPA that you signed with Solaria. I mean, I attended the company presentation. It looks like, well, the company said that PPA price was between EUR 45-EUR 50 MWh.
So my question is not just whether you are happy with, with that price, but also, what is, the levelized cost of energy that you see, for Solar PV in Spain as, as of today? Thank you very much.
Okay, Manuel, I will try to answer the second one. With regard to the gas margin and the cost step and the PPA with Solaria, Marco will answer. Your question is if we are going just to change our hedging strategy or not. Let me say that we have learned a lot of things with what had happened the past year. But giving you, a llow me just to explain a little bit this. I would say that the evolution of the gas margin in the year 2023 is the consequence or the result of an absolutely exceptional 2022 market context, with very high prices and a volatility never seen before, affecting, as we have seen, the year 2023.
The margins of Endesa's gas business have historically been around EUR 200 million, with good years reaching EUR 300 million, less good years reaching EUR 100 million. The gas margin target for the year 2023, in the last Capital Markets Day, includes some negative impact. Let me say that this gas margin targeted was around 140. That means below the average of the 200. This is just because we already take into account a negative impact from inefficiencies of derivatives closed in the third quarter 2022, which were compensated for by good operating results.
These inefficiencies of derivatives were due to the mismatch between the PVB and TTF prices caused by the war in Ukraine, and the impact of gas supplies in Europe, and our TTF coverage policy in the clearing house. But let me say it was an extraordinary context in which we never have seen this mismatch between the TTF and the PVB. That is a lesson learned for us. In 2023, we have seen that the result of these inefficiencies has finally been even more negative than expected by us. In addition to this effect, I should say that the margin has also been affected by the fall in demand versus contracted volumes. And finally, and this is one of the gas margin, was also penalized by previous year other known recurring effect.
All in all, in the second quarter and the third quarter, we see a negative impact in what we want in our gas margin. So we saw a gas margin deterioration. I should say that since this 2023, 2022 context, things has changed a lot. First of all, since the beginning of the crisis, the European Union has taken numerous measures to increase security of supply by replacing Russian gas supplies by pipeline with gas from other sources, mainly LNG. With these measures and other measures, the European gas market is becoming increasingly homogeneous, helping to align the different gas price references in Europe.
So within, excuse me for this long explanation, within that, the context has changed again, and this was one of. Nevertheless, we have learned the lesson. We will take care, we are really closing and taking it up on the the, we don't expect this mismatch between the TTF and the PVB in the future. Even more, we expect a better fourth quarter, mainly due to the operational margin, and we don't expect material impact in the year 2024. But we have learned that we didn't have in our mind these mismatch that have penalized us during the second and third quarter. So, are we going just to change our hedging strategy? Y es and no.
We will continue, but taking care of this very important point that we didn't take into account, or we don't expect it in the past. So we have learned the lesson.
Thank you Pepe and hi Manuel. Just answering now after the question number two, then question number one and the three. So on the first one, regarding the cost of debt, and in particular, you know, the refinancing, the looking forward in 2024. Without commenting too much and without disclosing too much regarding our Capital Markets Day and things, what I can tell you is that the big refinancing next year is the EUR 3 billion financing from Enel that we have in place, that you know, from 2014, that ends in October 2024.
If you ask me right now, of course, I mean, it's, it's, you know, we cannot say much, but if you ask me right now, I'm not sure we will refinance it all. So, this is somehow is give you part of the, probably the answer. And the other point is that right now, our coverage with, at fixed rate of our financing, it's approximately 70%. It's, it's even more than 70%. So 70% is fixed, so also this, I guess, that is giving you some hints there, about 2024. And in terms-
When we go to question number three, frankly, it's a bit embarrassing because, you know, we were not expecting to, you know, Solaria to give any kind of detail, even more if they were not exactly correct. So, you know, your statement that this price should be EUR 45-EUR 50 range is not correct. It's not that range. You can guess what somehow where probably the price stand. So I mean, those are the kind of prices that makes for us interesting, you know, signing PPAs.
Thank you, Manuel.
Okay. Thank you, Manuel. We move now to Javier Garrido from JP Morgan.
Yeah, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First one is a clarification on the comments on the gas margin for Q4. Should I understand that this should be positive, as you said, but is it positive enough to offset the negative gross margin that you have accumulated to the nine months, or it's not enough to make the gas margin in full year 2023 be zero or positive? The second question is on net debt. Apologies if you have said that in the presentation and I missed it, but have you got a net guidance, an updated net debt guidance for 2023, and what are you expecting by way of working capital moves in the fourth quarter? And then the final question is on the 1.2% special sales tax.
Would you be assuming from now that this is going to be permanent, that this is going to become recurring and not just a tax for 2023 and 2024? Thank you.
Okay, Javier, I will try just to answer the third one, and Marco will clarify this gas margin and the net debt and the working capital. Well, first of all, I suppose that you asked me this question of the permanence of this 1.2% sales tax, just because of the agreement between the PSOE and Sumar parties. First of all, I should say that try reading what they have written, what we read is readapting and maintaining these taxes once the current period of application expires. So first of all, we need to understand what means this readapting issue, no?
Nevertheless, I have to say that we have tried to explain, first of all, that we don't have, many, many times, that we don't have windfall profit. And this is true, even more if we have this clawback cap, this is the 67, lower than the one in the European Union, which is 180, that means that there is no extra benefits. So we don't have will for profit. Having said that, you know that we have legally appealed the tax, claiming, first of all, that it is discriminatory and unjustified. And the second thing is that it does not follow European regulation.
You know that this kind of tax should be applied, not in the case of the electricity companies, just because of the clawback, but in any case, should be applied over the profit and not the revenues. In any case, we say that it is discriminatory for the Spanish utilities, since it decrease our capacity to invest compared to other European players. We have, then, a competitive disadvantage in term of the European market, and this has no sense. I think that we should focus all our potential in the development of renewables, the reinforce of the distribution, et cetera, et cetera.
So we should be focused, as the European Commission, on trying just to explain in this energy transition, if we don't have a will for profit, if it is discriminatory versus the rest of the European companies, it has no sense, it has to continue with that. We will continue appealing in that, and we will see what happen.
Thank you Pepe and hi Javier. Just going to the question number one and number two. On gas margin on the Q4, yes, you are seeing it right. In Q4, we see a positive in gas margin. Is this enough just to compensate the negative? No, will not be enough, so we plan to end the year, you know, probably slightly negative. Could be something, I don't know, around EUR 100 million. And just to elaborate a bit more on this, generally, this is historically a business that in one good year gives us, I don't know, EUR 100 million. In a bad year, gives us, I don't know, EUR 100, EUR 150 million, and in a very good year, gives us, you know, EUR 300 million.
This is not the case for what we have, you know, we have seen and we have listened by Pepe regarding the TTF and PVB. This will not be the year, so, I mean, in this case, you know, we will arrive, we will improve in the fourth quarter, but this will not be enough just to neutralize all the negatives that we have been accumulating along the year. And, if we go to question number two, that is on net debt guidelines. No, you didn't miss. We didn't give it, but we give it to you right now. We confirm that we do see 2023 with a net debt between EUR 10 billion and EUR 11 billion, will be in this range.
And of course, this has, you know, this is very, very related, of course, with our working capital recovery, but also, with the regulatory working capital recovery. We have been, after the peak, the lowest peak, actually, the highest in terms of, of exposure on the regulatory working capital. There was 2.6 at the end of the first quarter. We have seen this, improving, slightly at the beginning. You're still seeing a slight improvement this quarter, but we do expect for the last quarter, this to became, stronger.
And of course, the job will not be done yet, but we see a stronger recovery in the last quarter of the year, and this should somehow bring us where we think in terms of net debt guidelines. Thank you.
Thank you, Javier. We move to the next questions that come from Jorge Guimarães from JB Capital. Please, Jorge, go ahead.
Good morning. I have two questions. Most of them are follow-ups. The first one is if you can clarify your comment about the sustainability of the, of the electricity margin, when you say that the nine months 2023 margin, you want to, to maintain it or even improve it? Do you mean the supply margin or the integrated margin? This would be the first one. The second one is if you can provide some visibility about the EBITDA from the non-mainland systems as of nine months. And the third one is a clarification on the question about the PPA with Solaria. Can we understand from your words that you see the LCOE of Solar PV in, in Spain in the low forties range? Thank you very much.
Hey, Jorge, I will try to answer the first one, and then Marco will answer. Just in terms of the electricity integrated margin and the supply margin, I have to say that this figure that we have in this Nine Month Result presentation, that is the EUR 50 per MWh, it is sustainable in the future, as I have said. Also the sustainable, the EUR 13 per MWh in the supply margin. So, we feel comfortable with these figures, and we will try, as I have said, just to improve these figures. And now, Marco.
So thank you. Hi Jorge. Basically, on non-mainland, yes, the EBITDA at nine month is approximately EUR 350 million, and we do expect this to close year 2023 around EUR 500 million. In terms of PPA, I mean, I guess that there was the in the PPA with Solaria, there were, you know, two counterparties with two and with a common interest, basically. I guess that even though the PPA is not very big in quantity, to us, you know, there's a point where it is interesting vis-a-vis building renewables.
So basically, it was in a range of price that made us, you know, interesting to buy, even though we have our own project, our own pipeline that is huge, and our own, you know, renewables in construction. So that, that is it. And I guess that on the other side, there is, there was the somehow also the interest of having a counterpart like Endesa, you know, signing a PPA also for future development of the company. So I guess that, that I would not probably see too much more behind such a deal. And the margin that I've given you on the, sorry, on the non-mainland, is the margin.
It's not the EBITDA, unfortunately. So it's the margin that we are seeing the same. So the classical number that we give you, just in order to, you know, fill your models and having visibility on the contribution of the non-mainland business. Thank you.
We move to the next questions that comes from Peter Bisztyga from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Hi good morning. Thanks to take my questions. So two from me. Firstly, I think your guidance on the windfall tax payable, you know, from 1.2% levy payable in 2024 was around EUR 280 million. Is that still valid after what you've reported for the nine months? And then, secondly, how are conversations with the regulator going on remuneration regularization for 2020? And is there any risk that you could see another hit in networks like you did last year? Thank you.
Okay, Peter, I will try to answer the second question. We are continuously talking and discussing with the regulator. I should say that we don't many times we don't get what we want, but we have a very fluid conversation with the regulator. Let me say that we are in a very very important point, trying just to create something positive, to create value with the regulator, and I will try explain myself. It is true that we are involved in the energy transition, and the energy transition is very, very, very important for Spain, for Europe, and even for the world, as you know, and it's very, very challenging.
It is clear that these policies focusing or aiming just to the decarbonization, the increase in renewables, the reinforcement of the networks, the electrification of the consumption, et cetera, it is very, very, very important. What we think is that we have taken this responsibility, but we need just to implement the regulation that will make successful all these energy policy that we are trying to implement. We need a lot of changes, changes in the remuneration of the distribution, a lot of changes in the incentivization of renewables, et cetera, et cetera. And-
At the end, in any case, any measures adopted, at the end, should not be, I would say, an obstacle to further progress toward the energy transition objective. Which will be only possible, and this is very important, on top of the different bottlenecks that we have, it will be not possible if, first of all, it is not competitive for the customer, and second, if it is not profitable for the investor. It is absolutely clear, absolutely clear that all the things that we do, if we want to be successful in the energy transition, should be competitive for the customer, but also should be profitable for the investor.
So at the end, I think that we will reach an agreement because we are in the same boat, regulators and ourselves.
Thank you Pepe, and hi Peter. Then getting back on question number one, that is on the windfall tax and on the impact. Yes, short answer is yes, we do see this, you know, north of EUR 200 so impact. This is both for 2023. That is calculated on the 2022 results, of course, on the Iberian Peninsula, netted by regulated activities . And this is, you know, very similar to what we see also in 2024, calculated on the results and the revenues of 2023. Thank you.
We move to the next question that comes from José Ruiz from Barclays.
Yeah, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. I only have two. The first one is, if you're still maintaining the 1 GW renewables capacity addition for 2023? And the second question is, you're doing very well in terms of regulatory receivables from non-mainland. You have already reduced by EUR 700 million. I was wondering if you're still maintaining a level of, optimal level of EUR 1 billion for regulatory receivables, and when will you achieve that? That should be more 2024, I guess. Thank you.
Okay. Trying to give you a first answer. First of all, our 1 GW, in my opinion, we will reach something around EUR 700 million-EUR 800 million, more or less, and the rest will be put in operation the first half of the next year. And this is due some delays and some problems in the supply of different materials and different things. But that means that we will reach the figure, but we will spend some month of the year 2024. On the regulatory receivables, well, we are working just to reduce even more than EUR 1 billion, but we will see. We will see what happen. But Marco, could you-
Yes, on that. Hi, and hi, José. On that, just elaborating a bit more, when we started the year, you know, you correctly remembered that we were, you know, figuring, like. And we were saying that, like, probably EUR 1 billion was the normal amount that we should see on this, in this place. I mean, on working capital, regulatory working capital. And we also said that our target for the year was basically the one of trying to reach this by the end of 2023. So I would say that we are still, I mean, you know, abiding by this kind of challenge that we gave to ourselves.
Thank you. We have now, Rob Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley.
Hi good morning. Just a couple left from my side. The first one is just to follow up on I think the first question on capital allocation. And could you maybe share management's thoughts around the dividend payout ratio in the current environment? Previously, you paid as high as 80% or even 100% in previous years. And we'd love to just see how the thought process is evolving. Secondly, on non-mainland business, could we see a big step-up in CapEx there, given some of the fire damage? And would that offset some of the slowdown in renewables CapEx that you indicated?
And lastly, just to return to the topic of the PPA with Solaria, and your comment that the price was interesting versus building it yourself, is that to effectively say that smaller solar developers can build projects at the same cost as Endesa, given where relative finance costs are across the industry? Thank you very much.
Okay, thank you. I will try just to say something. Well, about the capital allocation, about or about the dividend payout, we will see our policy in the Capital Markets Day. So, I ask you just to wait for the Capital Markets Day to have this figure. With regard to the mainland and the big step or not in capital allocation in investment in CapEx. I would like to say that there is a important structural deficit of capacity in the island, mainly in the Canary Islands. We are expecting the launch of different auction for the new capacity.
In our opinion, the whole remuneration model should be reformed and adapted to the new environment and the new circumstances, and we will see. But it is true that it will be an opportunity. I should remind you that we have a restriction because we have more than 40% of the capacity in the island, so that means that we should shut down some capacity as to replace this capacity. And we will see what happen in the island, but it will be an opportunity if the regulatory environment is adapted to the circumstances that we have.
Well, I am not going just to say nothing about the Solaria PPA, which Marco is the expert in this for this question. In any case, let me say, we are doing our best. I always think that these competitors are always very good one competitors. We are open just to learn about these competitors. In any case, we think that we are also a successful competitor in this renewable business.
Okay, so, thank you Rob. And I guess that also question number two, actually, on non-mainland CapEx, is probably something that we should discuss more during the Capital Markets Day, because it needs a thorough and deeper discussion. On question number three, you know, let me allow. First of all, you know, I guess that Solaria is not whatever IPP, is not. You know, it's one of the big, you know, builders of renewables together with Iberdrola, and then that's on the market. So it's, I don't know if you can extract and somehow apply the same reasoning to other IPPs.
What is there, and just trying to give you more color in that, is that, as I mentioned, this PPA, it's on, if you want, on limited quantity. If I remember correctly, it's 0.2 TWh. So I mean, it's on small quantities, and I assume that on one side, the price and availability of this power immediately to us was interesting because, of course, we have our own projection for the, you know, short-term and medium- term. And so the this compared to our scenario, this price make the acquisition of this energy attractive to us, because we are kind of somehow, I guess, probably we are seeing, you know, this market environment to somehow continue.
And on the other side, I guess that it could, was somehow making sense. Of course, as I said, maybe not a big quantity, but it was making sense for Solaria to have a buyer, a long-term buyer, with the solidity of Endesa there on a PPA. So I mean, basically, that's it. Thank you Rob.
The next questions comes from Jorge Alonso from Société Générale.
Hi good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three, if I may. The first one is just to understand, because you pointed that the weakness this quarter was on the gas activities, were basically on the gas supply, right? But in conventional generation, EBITDA in the third quarter was negative, and if non-mainland was okay, I just wanted to understand what happened with the nuclear coal and CCGT plants in order to provide a negative EBITDA in the third quarter. The second question is, if you can provide some color on volumes of energy hedge for 2025.
And the last one is if you can give us as well some color about the amount of energy that you already have on the PPA, in the sense of you acquiring energy from a third party through PPAs. Thank you very much.
Okay, Jorge. Well, I will ask Marco just to answer you, but in any case, let me say that perhaps there is a misunderstanding, because the conventional generation has been strong. Perhaps the confusion is that I think that we present that, not differentiating the gas margin, we say something like generation and others. Well, generation, the generation, the power generation is going very well, very well, but in others, we include the gas impact. And I think that could be the confusion, and I ask and I excuse myself here, because we could confuse with this center, but Marco, could you explain?
Okay, so hi, José. So basically, you know, on the gas, yes, on generation, basically all the impact is coming from the negative of gas. That you can then better see at page 11, where you see the, on one side, the very positive power margin. So basically, whatever is behind that is what you were mentioning. It's a supply, it's the hydro, it's the nuclear, it's the renewables. So it's basically all of those that basically was positive. But then when we come to the gas, the gas business, it's when things went the other way around. So basically, somehow giving gas this negative surprise, if you want.
On question number two, regarding the hedge on 2025. Yes, we started to hedge also 2025. That's kind of normal business to us because we generally look at two years time in front of us. But you know, in order to comment how much, I guess that is more something that we will somehow comment more on during the Capital Market Day. And regarding the PPAs, yes, of course, I mean, you've seen that there is some market activity. We are very very very active in terms of PPA on the sell side. We have been very interesting you know since years, I would say, also on the PPA on the buy side.
And what we have seen during the last year, it has been that there has been not so much activity, at least on the Iberian Peninsula, at least for us, for PPA acquisition. Now, we are seeing the market somehow starting to move, and the Solaria PPA was, you know, the fact that we went back to sign it, something was kind of, you know, this was showing that something is again moving. But for the time being, there is not so much quantity, you know, somehow available on the market.
At least, to us, there is not enough match between, you know, the price that it's interesting for us and the price that could be interesting for other counterparts on the other side. Thank you, José.
Thank you. This was the last question of our call. So thank you very much for participating, and just remind you that the IR team is available in case you have any other question or do you require further details. So thank you very much, and have a nice day.