Ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to all of you who have joined us to our 2020 first quarter results presentation. We hope that you and your families are all safe and well during this global pandemic. The presentation will be hosted, as always, by our CEO, José Bogas, and the CFO, Luca Passa. Following the presentation, we will move on to the Q&A session. In light of the exceptional circumstances and aiming at being efficient in the way we answer all the questions received, we ask those connected to send questions only via email at ir@endesa.es. Thank you for your attention, and now I would like to hand over to José Bogas.
Thank you, Mar, and good afternoon to everybody. Sorry, the next three slides are dedicated, and now I am in slide number two, to how Endesa has reacted to the COVID crisis so far and how the company will handle the following phases in the months to come. Today, Endesa has around 6,700 employees working remotely, which is 75% of our global workforce, thanks to our investment effort in digitalization that allowed us not only to protect the health of our employees but also to ensure business continuity. I would like to take this opportunity to thank them for the professionalism with which they have dealt with this difficult situation. In order to ensure the safety of not only our employees but also that of our external suppliers, Endesa has optimized their work scheduling, increasing personal protective equipment use and constantly monitoring their health conditions.
In addition to this, Endesa has taken out an insurance policy for the group's more than 68,000 employees worldwide to provide coverage in the event of hospitalization due to the COVID-19 virus. Regarding our communities, we believe that the joint collaboration between the public administration, civil society, and companies is necessary and fundamental. This is why Endesa has designed an action plan called Public Responsibility Plan with EUR 25 million for direct aid to the purchase of material, special supply conditions to residences, hospitals, and medicalized hotels, and financial donation to public institutions. Additionally, the initiative includes others such as avoiding supply cuts to residential customers or making more flexible conditions for small and medium enterprises, self-employment, and families. Finally, continuing to execute and potentially accelerate our investment plan is a key lever to support the economy.
Moving to slide number three, Endesa's activities have been classified as essential activities, and therefore there has been no interruption in operation. Most of our asset base is digitized. In generation, we have been able to achieve 100% remote operational management of renewable assets from two different control centers in Madrid and Santiago de Compostela and 100% remote monitoring of conventional generation. Our plan construction and operation automation, as well as the rescheduling of the maintenance activities, allow us to guarantee this business continuity. In network, the security of supply and reliability has been strengthened through the duplication of our five grid control centers, leveraging our 12 million smart meters, allowing to monitor real-time our asset performance while reducing significantly the intervention of personnel on site.
And when it comes to our customers, we are remotely managing all market and client-related activities through robot automation processes to minimize front-end and back-end disruption, liberating on digital channels. Having been an early mover in digitalization, it enables us to maintain business continuity management, protecting the smooth running of operations. The effective management of our people and our assets allowed us to face the current situation while our integrated business model will help us to minimize any potential risks. And I am now moving on to slide number four. Starting with macro risks, I would like to point out that our business, unlike others, has no exposure to currency risks and that more than 60% of our business is fully regulated, hence protecting our earnings from macroeconomic cycles.
Moving to business risks, margins are protected as 100% of our 2020 and around 80% of 2021 price-driven production has already been sold forward. We are not experiencing material disruption in the supply chain of renewables or network equipment, just minor delays. Endesa's customer base is well diversified. Our integrated business model with a long customer position gives us a natural protection against upheavals. Concluding with financial risks, Endesa's credit profile is strong with a healthy net debt/EBITDA ratio by 1.7 x, well below sector average. We have ample liquidity available to cover 23 months, and the annual need for refinancing is very low. To conclude, we expect limited impact from the current scenario thanks to the resiliency provided by our integrated business model that will help us to absorb temporary shocks together with the stability of our regulated business and the strength of Endesa's balance sheet.
Let's now move to first quarter 2020 results on slide number five. Today, we present a strong set of results. In the first quarter of 2020, EBITDA increased by 21% compared to last year on a like-for-like basis. That is, excluding the extraordinary impact from the net effect of personnel provision for EUR 356 million driven by the new collective agreement and a new workforce restructuring provision. These good results were mainly driven by the positive performance of the liberalized business and the steady pace of the regulated component of the business. At the bottom line, net income increased by 59% on a like-for-like basis. Moving now to slide number six, I would like to comment on the market context for the period of this financial release.
Spanish electricity demand showed a decline both in gross -3.2% and adjusted term -2.8%, affected negatively by milder temperatures during the period, as well as the COVID-19 lockdown from March 15th, reflected in the decrease of industrial and small and medium enterprise consumption. In a similar way, in Endesa's concession area, gross demand decreased by 2.7% and even lower in adjusted terms with a contraction of 3.9%. This development is mainly driven by the drop in the industry and service segments for the above-mentioned reason and to a lesser extent to the residential sector activity. Commodities fell sharply at a double-digit rate.
The gas market has been affected by a deepening of oil supply, a consequence of new US LNG supply, and a pullback in Asian demand, and the oil price tension between OPEC and Russia, which is taking Brent prices to its lowest historical levels, all worsened by the initial effects of lockdown to reduce the COVID-19 spread. The Spanish gas market benchmark PVB plummeted 43% year-to-date and 30% from the beginning of the lockdown to the historically low level of EUR 6.5 per MWh, and CO2 references have suffered the same fate, decreasing 24% this year to around EUR 20 per ton. In this context, electricity pool prices decreased to EUR 34.9 per MWh on average during the period, 37% below the first quarter of the previous year.
This price scenario results from the demand drop just mentioned, the higher renewable generation of the period, mainly from the improved hydro conditions, and the sharp changes in commodity prices during the last months. Demand decreased, declining commodity prices, and lower pool prices shaped the context in which Endesa operated during the first quarter of 2020. Moving to slide number seven, regarding power generation, Endesa's total mainland output decreased by 13% due to the sharp drop in coal output by 90%. This was partially offset by higher renewable output, mainly due to the recovery of hydro production, the new capacity in operation by the end of the last year, higher load factor in our CCGTs, and the stability of nuclear plants output.
Our CO2 emitting technologies accounted for around 88% of total mainland output versus 68% last year, above our 2022 target and well on track to achieve a fully decarbonized generation mix by 2050. The drop in Spanish demand has led to a 4% decrease in total gross sales, affecting both B2C that decreased 5.6%, that is 0.3 TWh due to the mild winter, and B2B segments - 3%, that is 0.4 TWh. While industrial sales increased by 2.6%, 0.3 TWh, small and medium enterprise decreased by 28.7%, that is 0.8 TWh. The total customer figure remains the same, while churn rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year. Let me go through the main factor explaining the evolution of the unitary electricity margin, and I am on slide number eight.
Electricity sales in the liberalized business decreased in Spain and Portugal by 3% in terms of volume, that is - 0.7 TWh. The unitary integrated margin resulted in EUR 34.3 per MWh, showing a 20% increase year-on-year versus the 28.6% of the first quarter of 2019, affected by the good margin evolution as well as 3% decrease in the liberalized sales. The sound margin increase has been possible thanks to the better generation mix with remarkably higher contribution of our price-driven portfolio, hydro, nuclear, and renewables, the effective management of the short position, better gas procurement in CCGTs, and higher supply margin, moving from EUR 8 per MWh in the first quarter of 2019 to around EUR 10 per MWh in the first quarter of this year, more than offsetting the positive impact of the temporary suspension of the generation tax in the first quarter of the last year.
Full-year expectation, as this states, points to flattening of the margin in the coming quarters, especially in the second quarter, with full-year aligned to our guidance in absolute terms, while unitary margin is expected to be higher, around EUR 30 per MWh, as a consequence of lower sale volumes driven by demand decrease. Lastly, we have already hedged 100% of our 2020 estimated price-driven output at an average all-in price of EUR 74 per MWh, with an estimated all-in for integrated sales, including indexed energy, of EUR 65 per MWh. For 2021, we have hedged around 80% of our estimated price-driven output at an average all-in price of around EUR 75 per MWh. Once we consider our total sales mix, the all-in revenue, including again indexed energy, will converge to levels similar to 2020 reference. A few words on the gas business on slide number nine.
Total sales have decreased by 8%, mainly as a consequence of the warm temperatures that affected domestic and international customers, the global situation of gas oversupply, and the worldwide demand slowdown caused by the COVID starting in March. Total customers remain almost flat, increasing by 5,000 in the liberalized segment due to active client attraction campaigns. The strategy followed in the retail business has had a positive effect on the churn rate, with an improvement of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. Our unitary gas margin climbed to EUR 3.6 per MWh thanks to the better sales price reference versus procurement cost. In this sense, we have continued to take advantage of the arbitrage among markets and the flexibility of our contracts. Retail and wholesale margins have both increased versus last year, which was affected by a different market scenario characterized by much higher prices than the current ones.
This margin also includes a positive mark-to-market effect from our contract, which will be flattened out over the year. Excluding this effect, the unitary margin would have amounted to approximately EUR 2.2 per MWh. Now I will hand over to Luca Passa, who will present in details of our financial figures.
Thank you, Pepe, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Further deepening in the analysis of the main financial figures of the period, I'm now on slide number 11. Reported EBITDA increased by 59%. Net income was up to EUR 844 million. On a like-for-like basis, once netted from the previously mentioned non-recurrent effects, EBITDA would have increased by 21% to EUR 1,120 million, while net income would increase a sound 59% to EUR 577 million. Free cash flow decreased by 21% when compared to last year's figure. Net debt increased by 16% to EUR 7.4 billion.
The change is attributable to the interim dividend on the 2019 results and a higher regulatory working capital. Net CapEx decreased by 31% as a consequence of the lower investment pace when compared to last year. And finally, net ordinary income rose by 129% to EUR 831 million. These figures include a net reversal impairment for EUR 13 million related to mainland coal plants. Moving to slide 12 to illustrate the extraordinary impact of the personnel cost. This collective agreement signed last January provides for a new and more flexible social benefit scheme, more aligned to the current scenario and to the evolution from a traditional thermal generator to a fully renewable and digital company. After two years of negotiation, the outcome has been considered beneficial for both the company and the employees.
The agreement established a modification of certain social benefits, mainly that corresponding to the electricity subsidies for active and passive employees, more aligned to the average family consumption in Spain. From an accounting perspective, the new assumed commitments in this collective agreement resulted in a positive impact of EUR 515 million from the reversion of the cumulative provision for employee benefits. Apart from this provisional release, a new provision for workforce restructuring plans was booked for an amount of EUR 159 million. It resulted in a net positive impact of EUR 356 million booked in the personnel expense line. This new context will provide the company with a greater degree of flexibility, allowing potential improvements in efficiency to face future challenges. Moving now to the detailed analysis of EBITDA on slide 13, let me now briefly set out the main drivers.
Once deducted the extraordinary effects booked in personal cost, Endesa EBITDA stood at EUR 1,120 million, or + 21% versus 2019. Generation and supply EBITDA rose by 51% to EUR 550 million, supported by the sound increase in the integrated electricity and gas margins. Distribution EBITDA decreased by 2% at EUR 489 million. Finally, non-mainland generation EBITDA reached EUR 81 million, a 31% increase. I will comment each business performance in the following slides. And I'm moving on slide number 14. Regulated EBITDA increased by 1% to EUR 570 million, with a slightly lower gross margin, while fixed costs dropped by 8%. Distribution margin decreased by 5% due to the application of the new remuneration parameters of the second regulatory period for 2020-2025.
The non-mainland generation gross margin increased by 20 million thanks to higher revenues related to the fuel compensation and a positive resettlement of previous year regularization that overcame the negatives from the lower remuneration in the new regulatory period. On the liberalized business, and I'm now on slide 15, EBITDA reached EUR 550 million, or a remarkable 51% increase, driven by a EUR 171 million improvement in gross margin and the decrease in fixed cost on a like-for-like basis. The increase in electricity integrated margin was driven by lower variable cost, the effective management of the short position, better gas procurement in CCGTs, and the higher supply margins, more than offsetting the positive impact in first quarter 2019 of the temporary suspension of the generation tax. In gas, gross margin reached EUR 76 million, showing a remarkable 117% increase thanks to better sale price references versus procurement costs.
We have managed to take advantage of the arbitrage among markets and the flexibility provided in our contracts. Endesa gross margin increased by 23% to EUR 34 million. Fixed cost decreased by EUR 14 million when compared to last year, once deducted the net provision release effect. Moving now to the next slide, and now on page 16, for the P&L evolution from EBITDA to net ordinary income. Starting from the EUR 1,476 million reported EBITDA, D&A decreased by 12% to EUR 358 million, driven by the impairments on our coal and non-mainland generation assets carried out last year, partially offset by the adjustment on the nuclear fleet useful life set on the nuclear protocol and the higher amortization in energy and green power.
Net financial results decreased to EUR 10 million, mainly driven by the impact of the update of the financial workforce and dismantling provisions due to the increase of the interest rates year-on-year. Income tax expenses amounted to EUR 260 million, 143% higher than in 2019, driven by the net positive impact of the EUR 356 million booked in the personal expense line, which has an impact of EUR 89 million at income tax level. Effective tax rate stands at 23.5%, higher than the 22.6% recorded in 2019 due to lower fiscal deduction. As a result, net ordinary income increased by 129% over the period. Moving to slide 17 on the cash flow evolution from EBITDA to free cash flow.
Funds from operation decreased by 18% versus 2019, reaching EUR 276 million due to the following effects: higher EBITDA after provision paid and net provision release of around EUR 219 million, working capital and others worsened by 57%, mainly due to higher payments of trade inventories, higher derivatives on commodities and CO2, higher regulatory receivables, mainly from non-mainland compensation and other non-cash provisions, all of which could not be offset by the improvement of the net balance of receivables and payables. Income tax more than doubled to EUR 74 million due to the higher corporate tax refund in first quarter 2020. The cash-based CapEx, which remained almost flat, led the free cash flow to a negative EUR 232 million this first quarter, decreasing by 21% versus first quarter 2019. Moving to slide 18 on the evolution of net financial debt.
Net debt amounts to EUR 7,376 million, almost EUR 1 billion higher than the previous year. This increase is due to free cash flow, which was EUR 232 million negative, as explained in the previous slide, the payment of EUR 746 million in dividends corresponding to the interim gross dividend against 2019 results, the evolution of the regulatory working capital, which increased to EUR 1,058 million, mainly corresponding to non-mainland system.
The leverage ratio remained stable at 1.7 x. Gross debt has an average cost of 1.7%, new historical low from the 1.8% reported at the end of 2019. Our latest guidance for full year 2020 on the net debt points to now a EUR 7.4 billion, similar to the level we are presenting today, based on the assumption of EUR 1.3 billion of regulatory working capital. In any case, we are working in order to reduce the regulatory working capital amount throughout the year.
When it comes to details on our financial debt maturity calendar, and I'm now on slide 19, our robust financial strength is driven by a flexible liability structure and a prudent financial management and lies on our long-term credit rating, which has remained unchanged according to the three main agencies in the strong BB B, weak single A category, which was also recently affirmed by Fitch. Endesa liquidity of EUR 2.9 billion, covering more than 23 months without need of accessing credit markets. Most of the EUR 1.5 billion maturing in 2020 mainly corresponds to outstanding ECP covered by banks' credit lines. Additional liquidity of EUR 1.3 billion in credit lines has been negotiated in the last weeks, which will help to absorb any further unexpected volatility in credit markets.
Moreover, we are increasing our share of sustainable finance instruments as part of our liabilities fulfilling our responsible finance commitments while lowering the cost of debt. All of these ensure the financial strength to face any potential outcome from the current COVID-19 situation. Moving to slide 20 for conclusion, let me now hand over to Pepe.
Okay, thank you, Luca. To close this presentation, I would like to conclude with some remarks on our performance during this first quarter. In light of the current COVID crisis, the solid underlying performance recorded during this quarter is certainly a remarkable start that will help us to achieve our announced target by year-end. The resilience of our integrated business model based on a 60% of regulated EBITDA, a consistent liberalized business, a long customer hedge, and a robust financial strength will allow us to cope with the volatile evolving scenario.
Above all, we remain strongly committed to protecting our people and support our communities against the COVID, with the same engagement we have demonstrated since its outbreak. Lastly, and importantly, we confirm the proposal of a dividend of EUR 1.475 per share against 2019 results, which will be subject to approval at the annual shareholders' general meeting, which will take place remotely tomorrow. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our first quarter 2020 results presentation. Thank you very much for your attention. And as always, we are ready to take some questions.
Okay, perfect. So, as anticipated, and in order to be as efficient as possible, I will read the questions received from analysts. In particular, we have received so far questions from Société Générale, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, RBC, BBVA, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Mirabaud, JB Capital Markets, Berenberg, and Mediobanca. I'll start with the first one, which I think is for our CEO, that is the following: What impact do you expect on 2020 EBITDA as a result of COVID-19? Can you reiterate the financial targets for 2020?
Okay, thank you, Mar. I would say that we expect a limited impact on 2020 results. In any case, it is still too early to make a detailed assessment and quantification of the possible COVID-19 consequences on Endesa due to the uncertainty at this stage regarding its duration. Nevertheless, I say that we expect a limited impact on 2020 results, first of all, because of our regulated businesses that are almost not affected, and secondly, because around 100% of our expected price-driven production is already hedged. And the expected impact in the supply business due to the unwinding of a hedged position, a consequence of lower industrial demand, will be more than offset by the positive yields coming from the short position, which is benefiting from the lower power prices.
Okay, the second question is again for you, Pepe. For the coming years, what would be the impact on your guidances if pool prices remain at current forward levels?
Okay, we believe power forward prices for 2021 and 2022 are highly contaminated by this depressed short-term scenario of drops in demand and commodity prices. We believe this situation is conjunctural, so these forward references should react in the post-coronavirus recovery phase.
Even more, what we can see now on screens as current forward references for gas in Spain, we are talking around EUR 15 per MWh for the next year and CO2 around EUR 22, which implies that CCGTs could offer at prices around EUR 50 per MWh. That means that with the energy or power prices, we are triggering negative spark spread, a situation which does not seem to be sustainable, with CCGTs being the price-setting technology in the state. In any case, and trying to summarize, we expect 2021 not to be significantly affected given the shield provided by our 80% production being already hedged at high OTC references. On top of that, as I have said, we expect the recovery of electricity prices once the COVID emergency hopefully fades.
Sorry, the next question is about the hedging level, and I think it's also for you, Pepe. What is the current hedging level for 2021 and 2022? At what prices? How long can you delay the negotiation with customers? Will you be able to keep current prices in 2022 hedging?
As commented in previous question, we are 100% hedged in 2020 and around 80% in 2021. At all in price of EUR 74, EUR 75, this level of prices makes us estimate all in integrated revenues in levels around the EUR 65 per MWh for the whole customer portfolio in which we include the index sales. In 2022, our price-driven production is still pending to be hedged as we are assessing a potential change of strategy that will imply some delays in the process waiting for the price recovery in the forward market in the following month that we are sure that will happen.
On top of that, we always adjust our hedging strategy to the different market conditions, as we have done this year and we have done, I remember, very clearly in the year 2016. We will do it trying to manage the short position that gives us a natural hedge. On the client side, there is some time lag in the repricing process, but it is easier scenario, this one given the downward price trend.
Okay, thank you, Pepe. The next question is for our CFO, Luca. How is COVID-19 and the lockdown affecting the CapEx in 2020? Can these delays affect the 2020 targets? Do you expect project delays until 2021?
Thank you, Mar. Regarding CapEx delays, I can say that are not significant in 2020. We are expecting some delays in renewable CapEx due to some Chinese provider backlog affecting just one plant. Bear in mind that this CapEx delay will not impact 2020 EBITDA. In addition, the two-week non-essential lockdown also caused two-week delay in installations of some of the plants. We'll have now cut in January of 2021 or February 2021 instead of December 2021. We're talking small type of plants in terms of capacity additions. And finally, in distribution, we are estimating basically no impact, just some delays in gross CapEx from customer connections that have no effect in remuneration.
Okay, thank you. We go back to Pepe. This is for you. Do you have an estimate about the impact in demand volumes? Can you give us some color on how the COVID-19 will affect industrial versus residential consumption and the potential impacts on the EBITDA?
Okay, I would start saying that the final impact will depend on the length of the crisis, this normal.
But trying to elaborate a little bit more, let me say that during the quarantine period, that is from March 16th till now, electricity demand has fallen 12%. The sharp falls are affecting industrial demand, demand that is B2B customer - 20%, and small and medium enterprise - 25%, impacted by the restriction on economic activities. While residential customers are increasing demand due to the confinement, B2B is 9.3% higher. When I try to think about the full demand, let me say we started the year with a very weak demand, that is the months of January and February minus, let's say, 1.4% or 1.5%. We have the same in the first half of March, and we have a drop of 8% in the second half of March. And in April, if I'm right, the figure is - 17.7%. So, well, that is the context.
Today, our current base case scenario considers two months of strong declines followed by a gradual recovery of the economy along the rest of the year, implying a total drop of around 10 TWh in the yearly demand. That means 4% lower than what was expected. We are expecting a decrease in B2B demand of around 8%-10% to be partially compensated by demand rise in B2C customers by 4% or 5%. As of now, we see this switch in demand having a net effect in results due to the different margins in both clusters of customers. But again, as I have said, the final impact will depend on the length of the crisis.
Okay, thank you. Now we move to the gas business, Pepe. How is the company managing the drop in gas demand? Do you have any flexibility in take-or-pay contracts? Which is the structure of your gas procurement portfolio, and which are your gas margin expectations?
Okay. We have not seen any material impact from lower demand in 2020. Yes, because in the power, our sales are around 95% hedged. Then, nevertheless, our expectation points now to get a gas gross margin slightly below the target announced in the last business plan. The situation in 2021 is slightly different in the sense that we only have around 50% hedged. But again, we are confident that gas prices will recover. We believe we have seen the bottom of gas prices, and we expect these prices to experience some kind of recovery at the end of the year from the current levels. In any case, I think that this situation of prices that we have in gas is not a real situation that could last in the future.
With regard to our portfolio, our portfolio consists of six bcm in total, 50% U.S. Henry Hub link, and 50% Brent index. Currently, below our retail needs as we have a long customer position, which is a good thing in this context. In the current market scenario with TTF references below EUR 10 per MWh, it's a good thing just to be a low-end customer, but also, what we plan to do and we are doing is just to use all the possible flexibility that we have in our contract. In the U.S. LNG contract, we have all the possibility. We can deviate or cancel cargoes without cancellation costs, paying, of course, the fixed toll and getting benefits from the lower prices as we are currently doing, and in our Brent contract, we also have flexibility in terms of volumes and deliveries.
We are confident in the year 2020, and we have hedged 50% in the next year, and we expect an increase in prices.
Okay, we move again to you, Luca, regarding the non-mainland business. To what extent could the crisis impact the island activities?
Thank you, Mar. Non-mainland generation business has no volume or price exposure, so the impact is very limited. It is a fully regulated business with a visible and well-defined RAB-based regulation, which is now up until 2025.
Okay. Also for you, Luca, what are the assumptions you have considered in your estimates of 2020 bad debt provisions in relation to the IFRS 9?
Okay, Mar, thank you. As far as IFRS 9 is concerned, we are not updating currently our assumption model because to date, we are not seeing a significant increase in the risk of credit default. In any case, we are constantly monitoring the situation, which obviously will evolve, and in relation to the bad debt figure, our annual average inflow amounts to around 0.5% of our revenues in the region of EUR 25 million per quarter, more or less. To date, no relevant risks have been identified that could have a relevant impact on the results, so we haven't conducted any adjustment in the historical rate of yearly bad debt provision in the first quarter. In any case, we are assessing the situation, and if needed, we will update this rate in the future.
Okay. Luca, do you expect a surprising working capital due to COVID-19?
Thank you, Mar. The measures implemented by the company and by the government through the Royal Decree 11/2020 to alleviate the economic situation of the most vulnerable customers are expected to increase the working capital. That's no doubt.
As bill payments are postponed, a situation that in any case will be temporary. Our last estimate points to working capital increase to be almost fully reabsorbed throughout the year. Obviously, we will experience a peak in June. Some of this working capital increase will surely translate into higher bad debt given the tough economic situation that the country is going through. But as commented before, today is very difficult to give you an estimate. And this allows balance sheet, however, with low leverage and robust liquidity, which basically permits us not to access the market for 23 months, gives us a very wide margin of safety. As of March 31st, the increased working capital related to COVID-19 is not significant.
Okay. Next question is about the dividend policy. Are you planning to bring forward the reduction of the payout in 2021 dividend or to cut it as a measure to counteract the deterioration of the working capital in 2020? I think that this is for you, Luca.
Yeah. I mean, we have already confirmed also in our release today that we are proposing for our tomorrow's AGM the final dividend for 2019 of EUR 1.475 per share, which is a 3% increase versus previous year. So this proposal is confirmed and hopefully will be voted positively tomorrow. And as far as, let's say, our dividend policy, I mean, the financial strengths of our balance sheet and our complete access to the capital market make it possible for our company to maintain intact its capacity to pay dividends to its shareholders despite the economic downturn. Therefore, we are not considering any change in our current dividend policy.
Okay, thank you, Luca. Next, the following question I think is also for you. Do you think there will be tariff deficits in 2020? What range do you expect?
Thank you, Mar. The expected reduction, obviously, of electricity demand, the fall in tax proceeds given the drop of fuel price and the measures adopted by Royal Decree 11/2020 are expected to cause a temporary shortfall of the system revenues this year. This increase should be temporary, and therefore it is unlikely to jeopardize the system balance. However, the system could generate a small tariff deficit in 2020, but it still keeps accumulated pending tariff surplus in the region of EUR 1 billion that can be used to offset the potential shortfall of revenues in 2019 and partially in 2020.
Additionally, from the sector, we are already proposing different measures to the ministry that are still, or the ministry is still in time to adopt certain solutions that can prevent the appearance of tariff deficit this year.
Okay, thank you. The next question is the following, Luca. Can you update on the impacts you are seeing in terms of cost of social tariffs and bill holidays up until the end of April?
Thank you, Mar. I mean, from the enlargement of the potential number of beneficiaries of the Social Bonus measures approved in the Royal Decree 11/2020, we are estimating a potential cost of less than EUR 10 million for Endesa based on the assumption included also in the ministry in the Royal Decree. So 500,000 additional homes complying with the requirements and benefiting for a total period of six months because obviously this is temporary.
The number of applicants for this measure to date is much, much lower than these estimates. In addition, the lower fuel price of Small Customer Voluntary Price, so the regular tariff, should mitigate this impact. Regarding the tariff holidays set by the Royal Decree to help autonomous workers and SMEs during the state of emergency, let us clarify that these bills have been simply postponed until the activity recovers. The Royal Decree established that these payments will be settled in a six-month period once the state of emergency is over. The impact we are estimating from this measure will affect our working capital figures, but will be temporary and, as I said before, will be mostly absorbed or resorbed by year-end.
Okay, thank you, Luca. We now go back to Pepe with some questions about the renewables business. First one is, how do you think the electricity price environment can affect future renewable projects? Is your plan for renewables energy in Spain at risk?
Okay, thank you, Mar. First of all, we believe that once the COVID-19 fades, the prices will again stabilize at the level of EUR 50 per MWh as foreseen by the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan and also our business plan based on normal, I would say, prices of gas and CO2. Therefore, the profitability of our projects should remain in the expected levels. Therefore, we don't see any material reversal in our long-term CapEx plan in renewable because of the COVID-19. So our medium-term value creation potential would remain intact. On the other hand, I would say without the right price signal, the energy transition to a clean generation needs will simply not happen as there will be no incentive to invest.
This is a situation that Spain is not keen to allow. We are convinced that climate action strategy will remain critical over the next decade, given that investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and the transition to a lower carbon future can drive significant near-term job creation while increasing economic and environmental resiliency. That is the reason why the government of Spain has declared the energy transition as a key strategic pillar for the recovery of the economy once the COVID-19 crisis is hopefully over. I would say also that at the beginning of April, the Spanish government sent to the European Union the final version of the National Energy and Climate Plan 2021-2030, confirming the target of massive expansion in renewables for generation capacity expected by 2030.
Thank you. Another one for you, Pepe. Do you think the government can accelerate the call for new renewables options to encourage investments?
I would say that there is no news on the legislative development. Nevertheless, I think that when the situation is or will be stabilized, we expect the ministry to push forward renewables new auction to support economic recovery and energy transition target. What we know, the last news update that we have is that the ministry has launched a new renewables auction in the Canary Islands. We are talking about something around 150 MW, again co-financed with FEDER. And also, in addition, the ministry and the Balearic Islands government are working on a new auction, again processed in that area with a potential allocation of EUR 17 million in funds.
Finally, at the end of April, a new draft ministerial order was released for public consultation establishing the regulatory basis of granting of investment aid for small renewables installation in mainland, which may be co-financed by FEDER community funds, FEDER funds.
Okay, thank you. Another question on renewables, Pepe. Have you seen any different trend in the renewables market in terms of competition? Are there now more opportunities to some PPAs as off-taker?
Okay, thank you, Mar. What is clear is that we have noticed a lower PPA appetite. Probably, I'm sure, as a consequence of the current low forward prices compared to the renewable cost in the region of EUR 40-EUR 45. We believe this is not a structural situation. When emergency period ends, market prices should recover, as I have said before, and then PPAs market will become attractive again.
Okay, thank you, Pepe. The next question, I think this is for you, Luca. Do you see opportunities for M&A in renewables in the current context?
Thank you, Mar. I would say that obviously the current environment might increase the potential M&A opportunities in the sector. And as always, we will look at them given that we plan to accelerate organic and inorganic growth in renewables. But as always, with a very clear priority, which is the creation of value for our shareholders. And this is a balance sheet that obviously provides us with optionality to make bolt-on investments at attractive prices. But obviously, this opportunity has to materialize in order for us to consider these opportunities.
Thank you, Luca. Moving now to the regulatory risk. Do you consider that there is an additional regulatory risk in the current environment? Could the government extend the current measures or approve new ones? Pepe, do you want to take this?
Okay, I will do it. As Luca said, through the approval of the so-called Royal Decree 11/2020 at the end of March, the government of Spain adopted a series of measures aimed at protecting the most vulnerable customers. By the way, a goal fully served by Endesa. We believe that with these measures, the sector makes a reasonable contribution to solving the crisis. Although nevertheless, we have presented additional proposals to help alleviate the impact on society. The impact of these set of measures approved affecting the energy sector, in my opinion, the impact is limited and in any case will be temporary during the time of the state of alarm, which we hope to be short. Then we don't expect this regulation to become permanent and we see no new risks of tougher measures being adopted.
Okay, thank you. Next question is about the status of the new Catalan tax. Please, Luca.
Thank you, Mar. The Catalan Parliament approved last Friday, April 24th, the first budget of the Generalitat for the next three years. The budget has an accompanying law that articulates a powerful fiscal package with tax modification and the creation of other new taxes focused on increasing the burden on higher incomes and companies. This tax will be enforced since the July 1st, 2020 and would have an impact on Endesa of about EUR 58 million, EUR 53 million in generation, mostly in nuclear, and an additional EUR 3 million for distribution. As we have done in the past, we plan to challenge this tax in courts as we believe it is unconstitutional due to the lack of environmental purposes and the duplication with other state taxes, abusive, and breaches of the European directive.
Thank you, Luca. Going back to Pepe, next question is the following. Could the fall in GDP in Spain put a limit on new distribution investments?
Okay, thank you, Mar. Well, the energy sector activities, as you all know, have been classified as essential during this period, let's say the health crisis period, and will also be key for the future recovery of the country because will be the, let's say, the engine for investment, employment, and economic growth.
Endesa and the rest of the electricity sector has been affected by the COVID-19 crisis, but we maintain our capacity to potentially accelerate investment if the circumstances are correct and the necessary regulatory and fiscal measures are taken. Last week, we have been discussing internally with our colleagues of the companies a possible set of proposals from the sector for the economic reactivation of the country after the COVID crisis. The main one is to bring forward the investment of the National Energy and Climate Plan through several regulatory and legal changes. One of the main points is the proposal to significantly increase the distribution investment as it will allow for an important job creation in the sector. This would require, among other things, an extension of the investment limit that you know that currently is 0.13% GDP.
Okay, thank you. Next set of questions are about the business performance, starting with nuclear. Pepe, has the nuclear output been impacted due to the COVID-19 lower demand during March and April?
I would say not significantly. The only relevant matter affecting nuclear output in the second quarter will be the refueling outages we are carrying out in some plants. Specifically, as you know, at the end of today, works have already started in Almaraz and in Ascó. But as already previously forecasted, we don't foresee a relevant impact in the current year in nuclear output.
Okay, thanks. On coal technology, Pepe, what's your view on coal output expectation? Is the company still considering the closing down of coal capacity or may reconsider this decision?
I would say that unfortunately, the market condition for the coal plants in mainland remains unfeasible as they are completely uneconomical being out of the merit order. This is due to the low gas prices, the increase of the carbon price, and some policy changes. The situation is clear that it is structural. Therefore, we will not change either in the future. It is true that we are trying to look for perhaps some kind of solution, some kind of new utilization or whatever. Nevertheless, in this moment where we have decided to submit the formal closure application for our four mainland coal facilities, it's a decision that is not going to be reverted as it is completely aligned to the target to accelerate the decarbonization of our generation mix set in our strategy.
The first two facilities to be closed will be Compostilla and Teruel, and both have received CNMC green light. Only the pending step is the ministry approval, but we expect to receive it shortly.
Okay, thank you. Regarding supply business, and this is again for you, Pepe. Given the fall in export prices, what is the risk that customers on liberalized tariffs decide to switch to regulated tariffs?
Well, it is true that as a consequence of the depressed pool prices, regulated customers can now see a lower energy component in their bills. That is clear. So there may be an incentive, let's say, for liberalized customers to return to regulated tariffs. But on the other hand, I should say that it is also true that given the existing volatility in forwards, customers also are looking now for stability to avoid the hikes in their electricity bills.
A liberalized fixed price tariff protects them from peak increases as those seen in the past. Additionally, customers are also demanding other services that they can't get through the regulated tariffs. In this regard, we have put in place new offers to attract customers to the free market, and we trust that they will succeed once the price reacts upwards in the post-COVID recovery phase.
Thank you, Pepe. We have now a question about the new bad debt provisions. This is for you, Luca. Could you give us some color about the bad debt provision release booking Q1 results? Will it be part of the annual dividend? Taking into account this provision release, what is your update guidance for 2020?
Thank you, Mar. The net result of the provision that has been released is now in the company's net income, both reported and ordinary. And the dividends, as you know, are calculated on the ordinary net results at the end of the year. As commented during the presentation, in the course of 2020, so in the course of this year, we will be evaluating different alternatives to dedicate these resources to new efficiency improvement plans within the company. As far as guidance, we maintain the announced 2020 guidance of EUR 3.9 billion in EBITDA and EUR 1.7 billion in net revenue income net of the non-recurring provision effect.
Thank you, Luca. We move now to another question about the CO2 rights. Has Endesa acquired CO2 rights in the market due to low prices seen? This is for you, Pepe.
We have taken advantage of the price drop to bring forward the purchase of 2020 that were not yet covered and some of 2021, but not relevant. Since the start of the COVID crisis, we haven't bought anything.
Okay, thank you. Thank you, Pepe. Next question also for you. How much more versus last year did you do from ancillary services?
Thank you, Mar. I would say that due to our long customer position, we are net payers in the ancillary services market. Therefore, the increased cost of these services in the first quarter of 2020 has resulted in a net cost of EUR 14 million in this first quarter, which represents a worsening of something around EUR 6 million compared to the same period of the last year. We have seen ancillary services costs at a high level during the months of March and April that we believe and we expect then to lower down starting from May. And the summer period of thermal facilities will increase its stake in the spot market.
Thank you, Pepe. We have now the last two questions that are for you, Luca. The first one is about how much of the EBITDA came from benefits from the open position you had going into the year. What was the margin on the open position sales during Q1?
Thank you, Mar. I would say that during the first quarter of 2020, fuel price drop implied a positive effect on the so-called short position for about EUR 44 million at the EBITDA level when compared to first quarter 2019 for a total of 6.7 TWh . For the rest of the year 2020, the short position will depend on the evolution of electricity prices as well as on the evolution of commodities. And based on this, we will actively manage the purchase of the energy from OTC or spot market. We remain comfortable with this position even more in this low pool price scenario we are now envisaging for the rest of the year.
Thank you. Last question is again on the gas margin. Will the net gain on commodity derivatives be zero by the end of the year?
Thank you, Mar. In first quarter, gross margin includes a positive net effect of about EUR 40 million due to the mark-to-market of our energy derivatives. This change mainly corresponds to the gas mark-to-market. In any case, as commented in the presentation, this effect will be flattened out over the year. Excluding this effect, the unitary margin would have amounted to approximately EUR 2.20 per MWh instead of the EUR 3.60 per MWh as reported in first quarter.
Thank you. Okay, with this, we conclude the Q&A session. We have answered all the questions received so far, but just remind you that IR team can support you in case you have any additional questions. So thank you very much for your attention, and I hope to see you soon. Bye. Thank you.