Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to our 2021-2023 strategic plan. I'm Mar Martínez, Head of Investor Relations of Endesa. As you can see in the agenda on the screen, we will start with our CEO, José Bogas, who will guide us through Endesa's current positioning and will share with us a vision of Endesa for the next decade. Then, our CFO, Luca Passa, will detail the main targets and financial figures of the three-year plan. After some closing remarks, we will then open the Q&A session to those connected both on the call and on the web. Thank you, and now I give the floor to José Bogas.
Sorry. Thank you, Mar, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us today for our 2020 Capital Market Day. Endesa has further consolidated its status of leading player in the Iberian market thanks to its portfolio of strategic assets while progressing in its commitment towards a cleaner, more sustainable, and efficient business model. We are the largest operator of power generation, with a market share higher than 22%, supported by a growing share of renewable capacity. We are the first player in networks in Spain, with a market share of 43%, with more than 12 million end users, with a forecasted 105 TWh of distributed net energy in 2020. In the supply business, with a client market share higher than 34%, we are the reference operator in power sales, with around 91 TWh.
We manage the largest customer base in Iberia, with a total of 12.1 million customers, a competitive edge as retail activities are and will become even more strategically relevant. This leading position is the result of a clear strategic vision and consistent execution. Let me now take you through the delivery of the plan released last year in slide number five. Our strategic repositioning towards renewable has led to a significant change of our portfolio mix, with which, by the end of 2020, we will be 83% of CO2-free output, ahead of the goal set for our previous plan. Our customer center strategy has also delivered outstanding value creation by increasing our free customer base, reaching 5.7 million customers at year-end. In addition, the integrated management of the liberalized business has allowed a significant increase in the unitary margin, expected to reach EUR 32 per MWh.
The charging points installed by Endesa X will stand at 8,000 by year-end, or a 60% increase versus last year, progressing towards our target. Finally, on infrastructure and networks, first-generation smart meter full deployment provides the basis for further reducing the unitary OPEX per customer, in line with the announced target. In summary, we are delivering a set of sound operating results. I would say another set of sound operating results, and progressing on our strategic target. On slide number six, we show how our financial metrics have moved since 2014. The consistent achievement of our target during the last six years has led to the outstanding performance of the share price. Total shareholder return of more than 160% achieved since 2014 secondary offer is a clear recognition of the value we have created over time.
Endesa has provided its shareholders with one of the most attractive returns in the industry, which compares very favorably with the main stock market indexes. Such performance has been also accompanied by a growing participation of socially responsible investors, reaching more than 14% of our total shareholders as of December 2019. The main financial figure shows a sound progress, accomplishing and exceeding the target that we have set out in our business plans. Our CapEx has almost doubled, focused on renewables and networks, in line with the long-term goals of supporting the energy transition. EBITDA is set to reach EUR 3.9 billion on a like-for-like basis, increasing at a 4% annual compound rate. Net ordinary income evolution shows an outstanding 14% cumulated annual growth. Accordingly, gross DPS is forecasted to reach EUR 1.9 per share, or a growth of 16% in cumulated annual terms.
Focusing now on Endesa's long-term vision, that is the year 2030, and starting with some context in terms of climate change on slide number eight, the European Union's Green Deal points the way to decarbonization by 2050. The proposal assumes more ambitious emission reduction targets in 2030 versus 1990, from current 40% to 55% European Commission, or even 60% European Parliament. This target will be accompanied by an increase in the share of renewable energy to around 40%, as well as in energy efficiency metrics. In Spain, the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan sets an emission reduction target of 23% versus 1990, and establishes carbon neutrality by 2050. The target for renewable energy is set at 42%, while energy efficiency should attain 39.5%. All these objectives are fully aligned with the Green Deal premises, aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade.
All in all, this framework provides an estimate of around EUR 240 billion of investment opportunities in Spain, linked to the energy transition, of which around EUR 140 billion between renewables and networks. Moving on to slide number nine, today, more than ever, the regulatory initiative, both at the European Union and national levels, must play a key role to set up a favorable investment framework to spark up the economic turnaround. In an attempt to revive the economy after the COVID impact, the European Union has launched the Next Generation EU Initiative, increasing funds for the period 2021 to 2024 by EUR 750 billion through the so-called Recovery Fund. These funds will be applied mainly to support the Green Deal and digitalization.
The Spanish government, in an attempt to give effect to the EUR 140 billion, of which EUR 72 billion of non-refundable grants, has defined a series of guidelines and leverage policies for allocating these resources across several sectors, such as the Urban Agenda, the Energy Transition, 37% of the funds, the Digitalization, 33%, and the Pact for Science. We firmly believe that the energy transition provides unique opportunities for an economic relaunch in a post-COVID scenario, and Endesa will play a meaningful role in this recovery. In this sense, Endesa has defined 10 programs in the areas of energy transition, networks, sustainable mobility, efficiency, or hydrogen, about 110 projects that could have a place in the leverage policies and traction plans defined by the government.
We will have to wait to see how the destination of the funds is articulated to the share if we can finally obtain some funding for these projects. Moving on to slide number 10, our long-term vision based on decarbonization, enabling infrastructure, electrification, and the customer centricity will leverage on these opportunities to further consolidate our leadership in 2030. In the decarbonization of our generation mix, we are planning to add more than 10 GW of new renewable capacity, reaching an installed capacity above 18 GW by 2030. We aspire to revolutionize our generation mix profile with renewables, reaching 60% of our total installed capacity. The integration of this growing renewable generation requires a strengthening of the enabling infrastructure of distribution, which could lead to a regulated asset base around 13 billion EUR in 2030.
In electrification, consumption increases coupled with the progressive migration of customers to free tariff and an increased sophistication of customer needs will increase the value of our customer portfolio. In 10 years, we aspire to increase by 30% our free customer base, exceeding the seven million figure. Delivering on the Endesa 2030 vision, we estimate it will require around EUR 25 million over the next 10 years. As an order of magnitude, this amount would represent approximately 18% of the investment foreseen in the PNIEC, mainly in renewables and networks, key drivers as well as of our strategy. All this provides the right stage for long-lasting sustainable growth. On slide number 11, we show our commitment to CO2 emission reduction.
Last year, Endesa undertook the commitment to reduce its specific Scope 1 emissions by more than 70% in 2030 versus 2017, bringing them down to below 140 grams CO2 equivalent per kWh. This year, the acceleration in the transformation of our generation mix allows us to set a more ambitious target of approximately 80% reduction by 2030 compared to 2017, and to have 80% emission-free production by the same date. Specific emissions in 2030 will be reduced to less than 95 grams. Finally, we are determined to reduce by 16% Scope 3 indirect emissions by 2030. Scope 3 emissions are associated with the indirect use of gas by our retail customers. Moving now to slide number 12, this acceleration of our decarbonization pathway has been possible thanks to the reshaping of our generation mix and the closure of coal power plants.
After the required closures of the domestic coal facilities last June, we foresee that the two mainland imported coal plants will cease production by June 2021. This will leave operative only the two Alcúdia groups on Mallorca for security supply reasons, but with very reduced load factor, foreseeing the definitive closure by 2027 with the commissioning of the second interconnection line with the mainland. In slide number 13, throughout this coal phase-out process, we remain fully committed carrying out orderly closures, applying gas transition plants in all the affected sites, promoting dynamism in the surrounding affected areas. The integrated plan for Andorra, Teruel is a perfect example. It forces the installation of more than 1.7 GW of renewable energy with an investment of more than EUR 1.4 billion.
Concerning improved employment opportunities, a wide variety of programs will be launched, given priority to reskilling and hiring of local people, both in the dismantling and renewable construction processes. Circular economy and sustainability will characterize decommissioning and construction. All this makes it an internationally recognized project as an example of social and environmental value. Continuing now with our innovative project, innovation in the generation mix is currently and will certainly remain a fundamental pillar of our strategy. In this sense, we intend to develop, during the timeframe of this plan, around 280 MW of battery storage projects, and we will enter into green hydrogen projects under the scope of the European Union Recovery Fund. The hybridization of batteries, both in our renewable and thermal power plants, will provide economic and operational benefits for Endesa and the electricity system as a whole in terms of stability and resilience.
The future development of green hydrogen will be largely linked to all the renewable power to be installed going forward in Spain, and will have multiple applications in the field of industrial processes and mobility for heavy vehicles, among others. Some of these projects are also included within the list submitted to be eligible for the European funds. Specifically, the hydrogen, we have already built up a pipeline of 22 projects. Looking now at slide number 15, the acceleration of renewable generation and backup technologies requires a radical reshaping of our enabling distribution infrastructure. A boost in demand electrification will confer an even greater importance to the network business, as it will become an enabling factor. Endesa, as the first network operator, must spearhead this technological leap, and we are clearly committed to becoming a best-in-class digital network operator while maintaining a continuous focus on operational efficiency.
In terms of incremental activity, we foresee a 6% increase in the total number of end users between the baseline year and 2030. Beyond our digitalization initiative, we are working to create a single platform operating model aimed at improving asset resilience that will contribute to better reliability and quality of service. In particular, we forecast a sharp reduction of 29% and 31% in the time and number of interruptions, respectively, while further reducing the OPEX for end users by 21% in the next decade. In the retail business, on slide 16, customer centricity will be at the forefront of our strategy. We will actively promote the electrification of our customer base, leveraging an integrated offer of power, and the new and more comprehensive range of products and services. With the so-called beyond commodity services, we aim to be the reference provider, protecting our business from increasing competition.
We foresee that the electric consumption of our customers in 2030 may be more than 20% higher than today. The gradual transfer of regulated customers to the free market and their appetite for more innovative, complex, and highly personalized services like demand response or e-mobility will undoubtedly unlock value. Digitalization and platformization will be fully exploited to provide a tailored experience to customers while providing for additional operating efficiencies. Regarding digitalization, in slide number 17, in 2016, our strategy for digital transformation was defined for the whole of the energy group. This was based on three pillars: customer, asset, and people, and three enablers: the cloud, cybersecurity, and platforms. This approach has allowed us to obtain relevant digital efficiencies. Since then, the initial digital transformation has evolved to a new platform-based business model.
Nowadays, we have focused our strategy on platformization that will enable the extraction of additional value from existing assets and plug-and-play offer of smart and third-party services designed around the prosumer field. And now, I will hand over to Luca to explain the strategic plan over the next three years.
Thank you, Pepe, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I will walk you through now our long-term vision. We start in the next three years, 2021-2023. I'm now on slide number 19. Let's now move to analyze the 2021-2023 period for each business line with power generation. The next three years, we'll see the addition of 3.9 GW of new renewable capacity, implying 50% expansion on the current figure. This will bring us to a total installed renewable capacity of 11.5 GW in 2023, which will be supported by an additional 300 MW of battery storage.
This unparalleled acceleration is supported by a solid pipeline evolution, which will be an essential pillar for the business growth and value creation. By 2023, we expect that CO2 emission-free production represents around 90% of total mainland output, six percentage points above the current share. Moving to the following slide 20, during the strategic plan period, we will significantly accelerate our power generation decarbonization plan. The new 3.9 GW renewable assets will more than offset the closure of imported coal in mainland by 2021, raising the share of renewable capacity in mainland by more than 15 percentage points. This shift in generation mix will drive to a net increase of 6.5 TWh in the estimated total mainland output, landing to 53 TWh in 2023, with a 13% increase.
As the variable cost of these technologies is not exposed to commodity price fluctuation, they will contribute to further improved gross margin stability and its visibility. On slide 21, we take a closer look on the evolution of the renewable fleet split by technology. Three gigawatts of new capacity will be solar, while the remaining 900 MW will be wind farms, envisaging a more balanced position of both technologies in the last year of the plan. With these new additions, our renewable capacity will increase 50% to 11.5 GW, and our estimated renewable output will reach 21 TWh, a remarkable 63% increase over 2020 expected figures. Development CapEx for this new capacity will amount to EUR 3.3 billion, around 20% more than the envisaged for the three-year period 2020-2022 in the previous strategic plan.
The remainder EUR 500 million CapEx will support innovative technologies and, in particular, new investment in storage and hydrogen projects for EUR 300 million. On slide 22, continuing with renewables, the ambition's growth targets for the renewable capacity are supported by the portfolio of projects we keep on building. Our gross portfolio currently stands at 26 GW, of which 7.3 GW have already been awarded connection points to the grid, with the solar power having a significant weight, around 68%. This mature pipeline will enable us to deliver on the growth plan we are presenting here today. With regard to the hedging strategy to be implemented for this new capacity, one of our main advantages is that we enjoy a natural edge with our large and diversified customer base.
More precisely, an indicative general hedging of the production will be equally split between PPAs, long-term customers, and allocated to the wholesale market. Such indicative hedging strategy allows us to confer a profitability of around 200 basis points over WACC. This pipeline proves our know-how to address the complexity of the permitting processes. Finally, belonging to a group which is the world leader in renewable development allows us for a high degree of synergies and scale economies, among other benefits. We move now to the retail business on slide 23. Starting with the B2C segment, we will focus on customer loyalty, leveraging on our digital and analytics capacity to provide a highly personalized experience to our clients. Applying the same levers to the B2B segments, we aim at exploiting our customization and consulting model to be the leading energy partner of industrials and SMEs businesses.
All these strategic initiatives led us to forecast a total energy electricity sales increase by approximately 8 TWh to a total of 99 TWh. Growth will come entirely from the liberalized customers, which are expected to increase by 7%. The size of our customer portfolio will enable us to contribute to increase the cross-sales of other services and products, such as e-Home contracts that will grow more than 40% by 2023. Moving to slide 24, the significant increase of sales embedded in this plan is backed by an Endesa strong commercial commitment through the development of innovative commercial offers that are adapted to our customer needs, further campaigns which are accompanied by corporate communications, enhancement of remote sales, and the development of new channels. Our aim is to build customer loyalty and unlock new sources of value.
One of these new commercial offers, which has recently been launched, is the Unica Tariff, a pioneer fixed tariff, monthly tariff independent from the volume of consumption, which has three possible contract modalities and will deliver only renewable-generated energy. With the Unica Tariff, we are pioneering the subscription model in the energy sector, which has become a standard model in the TMT sector for years now. Moving to slide 25, the commercial offer of our products and services will not be limited to the electricity supply. Endesa and Endesa X will offer a whole platform of services and products. Some examples are e-Home contracts that are expected to grow around 42% by 2023, reaching 2.7 million. A new service for the B2B segment, demand response, will entail the management of energy demand of about 160 MW.
The installation of charging points for electric vehicles up to 56,000 in 2023, seven-folding the 2020 figure. 115 electric bus charging points will be deployed in the next three years, boosting to growth by 10 times from the 12 charging points installed this year and allowing us to become the reference player in electric mobility. In short, Endesa X is the group platform that will contribute to the electrification of demand, paving the way towards the energy transformation. Now moving to slide 26, in infrastructure and networks, we are clearly committed to become a best-in-class digital operator while maintaining a continuous focus on quality and operational efficiency. Specifically, investment worth EUR 2.6 billion, 30% higher than the previous plan, with full digitalization initiatives aimed at improving operational efficiency to meet regulatory standards, contributing to better grid reliability and quality of service along the period of the plan.
In particular, we will be able to reduce the number of interruptions by 23%, time of interruption by 27%, and losses by 3% by 2023, while further reducing the OPEX for end user by 12% in the next three years. To conclude with our sustainable business model, and now on slide 27, we can see the detail on how our business plan intensifies the commitment of our business model to the sustainable development goals set by the United Nations. Each business line has a direct impact on SDG 7, 9, and 11, and it impacts the wider scope of SDG 13, reaching 94% of CapEx allocated to climate action versus 90% in the 2020-2022 business plan. Endesa has a vocation for leadership in the change of the economic model.
We are talking about decarbonization, of course, but also about the necessary evolution towards a more circular economy, which is another feature of this plan. In this regard, we can say that for Endesa, a transformation towards the circular economy is integrated in our strategy. As a summary of this first part of the presentation, we are convinced that Endesa, through its strategic plan 2021-2023, is going to play a very relevant role in the development of a low-emission economic and energy model while addressing a cultural change and adopting a circular thinking. And now, let me go through the details of the 2021-2023 financial targets. On slide 29, after Endesa's visions in the next 10 years, the strategic lines in the first three years, I would like to retain below the evolution of financials over the period.
We are going to deploy EUR 7.9 billion of gross CapEx, increasing by 25% our investment effort versus the previous plan. The CapEx increase will drive sound growth at EBITDA and at income for 2023, despite absorbing a material worsening of the macro scenario condition. EBITDA shows a 10% increase over 2020, reaching a level of EUR 4.3 billion by 2023. Net income raises a sound 12%, up to EUR 1.9 billion by 2023, and finally, net income to EBITDA ratio remains stable along the plan at around 43%. Now moving to slide number 30. To achieve our targets in renewable stored capacity, we will mobilize EUR 3.8 billion total, with a remarkable 30% increase versus the previous plan. As a consequence of the acceleration in the new renewable capacity, energy and power gross margin will reach around EUR 800 million, doubling the 2020 level.
Profitability shows no signs of contraction as EBITDA to CapEx ratio remains stable over the period, despite part of the investment effort in 2023, which generates significant EBITDA contribution beyond the planned horizon. Further efficiencies from OPEX reduction are expected to leverage on the renewable scale increase. Moving to electrification, on slide 31, we will now have a look at the integrated margin resilience. The strategic actions described for the retail market, amply focused on the digitalization of our client relationship through the new platforms, implies EUR 400 million of total CapEx. Liberalized sales will improve by 9% to 83 TWh, driven by higher volume both in B2B and B2C, with progressive recovery of the COVID impact. The integrated margin evolution is impacted by the no contribution from short position.
Excluding this effect, the renewable contribution and better market condition in supply more than compensate the lower reference prices, the new Catalan tax, and the lower thermal margins. Thus, our unitary integrated margin will consolidate a stable integrated level around EUR 31-32 per MWh during the whole period. Gross supply margins are also expected to consolidate from around EUR 10 MWh in 2020 to around EUR 11 MWh in 2023. As you know, we have relevant volumes of price-driven production already hedged for 2021 and 2022 that make us confident to achieve the integrated margin goals set in the plan. We have hedged 96% in 2021 and about 43% at a similar all-in price of EUR 71-72 MWh. The rebound of prices in the forward market seen since the summer will support hedging of the remaining volumes at higher references.
Moving now to slide 32, Endesa X is also focused on our customer centricity, acting as a demand electrification and decarbonization accelerator. Mature business will provide around 75% of the expected gross margin and require almost half of the CapEx devoted to Endesa X to maintain the path of growth shown in the latest years. The mature business will be the base to develop new high-potential growth services and products, with a higher around 30% gross CapEx increasing their contribution to margin and laying out the foundation for future opportunities in the electric vehicle value chain and the demand response. Endesa X strategy will allow us to double gross margin by 2023. The platformization efforts in the retail and Endesa X areas will lead to an improved performance in their operation, and I'm now on slide 33.
Leveraging on these retail operations will significantly reduce the unitary cost to serve to levels below 10 EUR per customer. Interaction with customers will progressively become more digital. The number of contracts with e-billing will increase up to 5.3 million contracts, while the number of digital contracts will stand at 6 million at the end of the plan. Platforms implemented in Endesa X will enhance the customer experience, provide solutions to B2C, B2B, and B2G business-to-government segments, as well as a smart management of charging points in e-mobility. Moving now to slide 34, on networks, we will deploy 2.6 billion EUR over the next three years, a sharp increase of more than 30% versus the old plan, driving the RAB up to around 12 billion EUR in 2023.
50% of this large CapEx, 1.3 billion EUR, will be allocated to digitalize our grids in order to respond to the new needs of the networks, improving reliability and quality of service. It's worth underlining the quality plan as the most relevant project. The reduction of rate of return in 2021 from 6.003% to 5.58% and the lower O&M references are neutralized by the investment mostly devoted to RAB that increased 200 million by the end of the period, and by slightly higher distribution revenues recovering from low activity due to COVID in 2020. Moving to slide 35, the focus on efficiency remains at the core of Endesa's strategy since 2014. Over the next three years, most of the expected savings will come from decarbonization.
The plants drawn up for the closure of coal plants allows efficiency in terms of workforce optimizing and reduction of O&M costs associated, partially offset by higher activity in renewables growth business, and digitalization and optimization of operational processes mainly focused on distribution and retail, and about EUR 30 million of extraordinary COVID cost impact in 2020. For the period of the plan, our objective is to consolidate a remarkable nominal reduction of 10%, around EUR 200 million, where efficiency improvements in real terms, around EUR 400 million, more than offset the increase in inflation and organic growth. Moving now to the key financial management of the plan, around EUR 7.9 billion over the 2021-2023, implying a remarkable 25% increase compared to the figures released last year, with an annual run rate of more than EUR 2.6 billion, which is three times what we used to deploy in 2014.
The new business plan represents an important focus on growth. More than 80% of the CapEx is allocated to networks and renewables, with investments totaling almost EUR 6.5 billion. The growth in CapEx translates into value creation. EBITDA will be growing by a sound 10%, moving from EUR 3.9 billion to EUR 4.3 billion, driven by distribution EBITDA increased by 5% over the period, mainly thanks to the lower fixed cost. Non-regulated EBITDA remains flat, benefiting from lower fixed costs that compensate RAB decrease. Liberalized EBITDA remains flat along the plan. The better market condition in supply and the reduction of fixed costs, mainly driven by coal phase-out, are compensated by the non-contribution of the short position, the lower reference prices, the new Catalan tax, and the lower thermal margins.
In renewables, the higher contribution of about EUR 300 million comes from the new capacity put in place during the period, and the costs rise due to higher activity in the business line, and now moving to the bottom line on slide 37, we are forecasting a 12% increase in net income, mainly supported by the above-mentioned EBITDA improvement. This increase will be partially offset by higher D&A, mainly due to the investment acceleration in renewables and networks, the digitalization and platformization CapEx in retail, and higher D&A due to the nuclear assets' useful life adjustment in Ascó II and Vandellòs plants. Net financial results remain almost flat along the period as the lower cost of debt neutralizes the higher gross debt figure along the period. Average effective fiscal tax rate along the plan is about 24%. Moving now on the debt analysis on slide 38.
Net debt is expected to increase from EUR 7.1 billion to EUR 10 billion at the end of 2023, an increase of EUR 2.9 billion needed to finance CapEx acceleration and expected dividend payments in the period. Concerning cash flow generation, the plan entails funds from operations to reach EUR 9.2 billion cumulative during the 2021-2023 period. Moreover, sources of funds shown in the chart do not include additional EBITDA beyond 2023, associated with around EUR 800 million of CapEx already spent during the plan period. The cost of debt is expected to record a new historical low level at 1.4% at the end of the plan, based on our interest rate assumption. If considered current forwards for 2023, the cost of debt could even be slightly lower. Looking more closely at the credit metrics of our growth ambitions, we move to slide number 39.
Funds from operations keep a strong pace along the period, increasing its proportion on EBITDA by 15 percentage points. Despite the increase of leverage up to 2.3 times by 2023, as a consequence of higher CapEx, the plan provides for a stability of our credit metrics with an FFO to net debt ratio stable over the next three years. Return on invested capital shows a slight decrease of 2 percentage points in the period, explained by the strong investment effort that do not include additional EBITDA beyond 2023. Moving to sustainable finance on slide number 40, Endesa pursues an ambitious approach to sustainable finance to support its strategy and to promote sustainability among stakeholders.
In 2020, we have been focusing on sustainability-linked financing based on indicators representative of our sustainable strategy, among which the two sustainability-linked club deal bank facilities for an aggregate amount of EUR 550 million and the first listed corporate SDG Euro Commercial Paper Program in Europe for an amount of EUR 4 billion. Furthermore, we are expanding such approach to short-term and working capital instruments, as evidenced by the very recent retail customers factoring. Moving to slide number 41, such ambition is not limited to supporting the strategy, but also as a valuable tool to engage stakeholders. We plan to expand across diverse ESG goals and will be particularly attentive to the new opportunity arising from the EU Recovery Plan. By the end of 2020, sustainable finance will account for 45% of total gross financial debt.
The share of sustainable debt over total gross financial debt is expected to grow steadily in the coming years to reach approximately 60% by 2023, considering solely third-party debt. This percentage could increase to 75%. And now I will hand over to Pepe for the concluding remarks.
Thank you, Luca. In relation with our dividend policy on slide 43, we set a dividend policy as a consequence of our more ambitious growth profile. Over the past few years, CapEx has been growing at an accelerated rate, more than tripling that of 2014, in line with our commitment to decarbonization and energy transition. In this context, and in order to maintain the risk profile and financial strength that have always characterized our company, we maintain 100% payout on ordinary net income in 2020, 80% in 2021, and 70% in 2022, as committed to last year.
In 2023, we will extend the payout ratio of 70% on net ordinary income. That is the reflection of the company's new growth profile. This dividend policy combines a sustainable equity story with a healthy balance sheet, which allows us to take advantage of future investment opportunities while providing shareholders with sustainable and attractive long-term profitability. On slide number 44, we summarize our target over the planned period. EBITDA is expected to increase at a compound annual rate of 3%. Net income is expected to reach EUR 1.9 billion in 2023 from EUR 1.7 billion in 2020, which implies an annual compound rate of around 4%.
And net ordinary income would reach EUR 2 billion based on the implicit DPS of around EUR 1.9 per share for 2020. The implied average dividend yield in the period will amount to 8% in 2020 and above 5% for the rest of the period.
We believe that the figures presented today represent an important milestone in Endesa's equity story, where we are laying the foundation to address our 2030 vision and deliver sustainable shareholder returns over the long term. Moving to slide number 45, Endesa's leadership in Iberia is driven by our first-in-class asset portfolio managed through a very successful integrated strategy. Since 2014, and leveraging on such leading position, we have proven time and again our ability to deliver and sometimes exceed on our commitments. Our 2030 vision is focused on decarbonization, enabling infrastructure, electrification, and customer centricity, as we strongly believe it is the right way forward to remain the reference utility in Iberia. Digital platform implementation across the company will allow us to stand out with a unique energy value proposition.
This strong investment acceleration supports our leadership in this evolving energy transition, and the plan presented today reinforces our commitment to deliver on our 2030 vision. We firmly believe in a sustainable business model and in a circular strategy across all dimensions, including the financing side, as the best way to deliver a long-term value creation. Before finishing this presentation, let me say something mainly to my colleagues at Endesa. It is an exciting plan, a plan to growth. We need everyone's commitment to carry it out and achieve our goals. We are in a great company. We have a unique team. And I have to say that we are leaders, and as such, we will lead the energy transition, and we will emerge even more stronger at the end of this cycle.
I would like to thank the entire team for their dedication and effort in a very difficult environment and year. I would also like to express my most sincere gratitude to you all because you have stepped up to this challenge. Thank you very much. And now, yes, ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our strategic update presentation. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are ready to take some questions.
Okay. Thank you, Pepe. Thank you especially for your kind words. And thank you, Luca. Now we are ready to open the Q&A session.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To ensure the quality of your call, we recommend using a landline and conducting it from one location with low ambient noise. I will now hand the floor over to Mrs. Mar Martínez. Okay. The first question comes from Harry Wyburd from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please, Harry, go ahead.
Hi, morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. So three of them. First two, I'm afraid are quite technical on the renewable side. So just focusing on your 200 basis points IRR WACC spreads guidance. I'd just be interested. I don't know whether you can give us any kind of sensitivity on how that 200 basis point spread differs, firstly from the perspective of where your buying pipeline in versus developing fully organic pipelines. In other words, if you're paying a certain amount to buy some land or grid-connected land, what kind of impact does that have on your IRR WACC spread?
Is it a case that some projects might have a 100 basis point spread if you have to buy the pipeline, and others might have a much higher spread if you don't? Then secondly, if perhaps we just focus on the sort of PPA capacity that's going to be referred of your capacity. Again, as an IRR WACC spread sensitivity question, can you give us some kind of flavor as to what happens if power prices actually turn out to be lower after the PPA expires than what you're forecasting? I think you're assuming sort of close to 50 EUR a MWh Spanish power. But let's say at the end of your PPA, actually, the power price is about, say, 10 EUR lower than you're expecting after the PPA expires.
Can you give us any kind of guidance on what that would do to your IRR WACC spread? So obviously, those are quite technical questions. One more technical one, just a similar sort of question on your EBITDA over CapEx. I think you're guiding to about 11% on slide 30. Is that different for your different routes to market? So I'd assume that for the one-third that you're selling to your sort of long-term customers, where your unitary revenue is about EUR 66 per MWh, my guess is that EBITDA over CapEx for that capacity specifically probably would be a bit higher and then maybe lower for your PPA. It would be interesting to get a clarification on that. Then final one, totally different topic.
The non-mainland business has been the source of a few kind of unexpected sort of quite small, but still unexpected guidance or earnings downgrades during the year. I can see in the slides you're not expecting any growth from that business over the next few years, but it is a regulated asset at the end of the day. Given that you're sort of now much more focused on growth and renewables, does that non-mainland business sit well in your portfolio still, or is that something you might consider perhaps rotating at some point? Thank you.
Thank you, Harry. I will try just to give some answers, but I will ask Luca just to really give you the figures. Starting with the PPAs and the sensitivity that we will find when we finish with these PPAs.
As you know, first of all, we have a natural hedge with one-third based in the PPA and other third in our long-term customers, and the other third just merchant. So that means that the real weight of the PPA is one-third only. So we don't expect changes in this. Even more, what we think is that up to the year 2030, prices will continue around 50 EUR per MWh in nominal terms, not in real terms, in nominal terms, will be around 50. And beyond the year 2030, what I guess is that the marginal price or the price in general, the wholesale price, will change just because it has no sense when you have a lot or, in Spain, 37% of renewables on top of the three gigawatts of nuclear that will continue.
If we take into account the nuclear protocol of the government of Spain with the companies, then the marginal price will be close to zero. So something will happen, and not only in Spain, all over the world. And we will have a different methodology to fix the price. Perhaps close to the telecoms in the sense that people will pay for the capacity, and then the energy will be for free. Let me say that. With regard to the non-mainland, you have said the reduction, or I have understood the reduction in the result. First of all, you should take into account that, yes, because it's a regulated business, we will have a reduction in the tax remuneration, in the remuneration, the same as the distribution with a reduction of 0.5 basis points.
Also, you should take into account that during the next few years, we will shut down some power, and up to that we start to build new capacity in this system, it would be very difficult to maintain the remuneration, but in any case, well, this is the floor, I would say, and if we continue in the future, that we will need to do it, increasing our investment, this remuneration will increase. In any case, I give the word to Luca just to give you the figures and more precise information.
Thank you, Pepe. Harry, on your first questions, differential over the spread of a WACC vs basically organically generated pipeline. I mean, first of all, our pipeline is, for the vast majority, built on our own.
Let's say the cost per megawatt to be developed to us is in the region of between EUR 50,000 and EUR 60,000 per MW. Obviously, if you go outside, there are several types of prices you can find in the market if you want to acquire pipeline. As you probably remember, we bought some pipeline from Prodiel back in the end of 2019 at EUR 90,000 per MW developed. Now, this increase of EUR 30,000 per MW obviously has some kind of effect on the spread to WACC, but in the end, blended in the overall portfolio for us, let's say the impact is non-material or minimal.
Now, for the second one, in terms of PPA effect on the overall blended returns, obviously, the portion which is, let's say, linked to a PPA has an EBITDA to CapEx, which is, in terms of percentage, higher than what it is the rest.
But let's say the hedging for us is structured as a way which is a blended hedging for the energy. Therefore, we look at the overall return of the project and not at a specific part of the hedging of the project. To give you some numbers, the differential for us in terms of hurdle rate between, I would say, a regulated PPA wind plant is in the region of 250 basis points, and the differential of hurdle rate, again, levered, is in the region of 200 basis points when we talk about solar. This is the differential between merchant and PPA regulated. Then on the third question, which is non-mainland, no growth in the plan, the no growth is clearly there because obviously we are not investing in revamping our fleet in the islands, as you've seen from the CapEx deployment and also the margin contribution.
We have actually a lowering of capacity of about 300 MW during the plan, therefore also rapid decrease over the plan. Now, your question is whether this business sits correctly or not in our strategy. To be honest, I think what we are trying to do in the islands is really to make a radical change in the energy mix that will probably require more than the horizon that we foresee in this plan. It's a longer term where we change and decarbonize the mix into the islands. Obviously, there we will need the support of new regulation in order to pursue this changing energy mix. For some of the investment, also the support of the EU recovery plan.
So I think it sits in our strategy, but obviously we need a change in regulation for us to revamp the sites and the energy mix in the islands.
Okay. Thank you, Harry. We move now to the next question that comes from Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Please, Alberto, the line is yours.
Mar, thank you. And good morning. Thanks for the presentation. I have three on my side as well. The first two are really focused on renewables. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit more on what are the underlying assumptions that have led to a slowdown in annual additions in renewables after 2023? You seem to go down to about a gigawatt a year. You're doing 1.2, 1.3 initially. It's a little bit different to what we are seeing from some of your competitors in Spain.
And it seems to me also slightly inconsistent with the national energy plan, which is suggesting a 200% acceleration in renewable additions versus the past versus the current run rate. So I was wondering why with the 26 GW pipeline and sitting in Spain, you don't see the ability to do more. The second question is on CapEx. The CapEx is actually EUR 2.5 billion. So when I look at the EUR 25 billion and the 40% for renewables, it looks like you are targeting about EUR 1 million per MW or higher. And I assume that of the GW, there's a larger share of solar. And with solar costs probably at about EUR 500,000 per MW on large projects, I was wondering, why do you see such a higher CapEx?
Do you target perhaps more wind than I thought, or perhaps smaller solar projects, therefore with a higher unitary CapEx? Maybe if you can help me navigate that. The last one is, am I right in thinking that if I were to normalize, sorry for asking, that EUR 49 you're assuming to the forward curve, let's say EUR 5 MWh lower, I need to think about 30-something TWh of hydro nuclear. But then, let's say for 2023, I know that some of the renewables you have a target IRR, and they have a cap and floor. But within the cap and floor, they would be exposed to power price volatility.
So am I right in assuming that if power prices, let's say, are EUR 5 lower, the sensitivity should be more on 40-45 TWh, which would mean about EUR 160 million or EUR 175 million mark-to-market exercise? Thank you so much.
Thank you, Alberto. Again, I will try to give you some answer, but I will give the word to Luca. Well, the first thing, the slowdown in the renewable addition, well, let's say I don't think so. But it is clear that in the year 2020, we are going to be lower than what we forecasted. And the reason, the main reason was the COVID. And well, what I've seen is that, well, the context remains weak in the sense that the recovery of the weak situation will take time, and there are a lot of uncertainties.
What we have done is just to try to recover gradually the path that we had, and then just to read the standby, let's say, that in the year 2023 is what we have tried to do. In terms of pool prices, let me say that, well, if you compare our old plan with this plan, there is a difference of around EUR 2 per MWh. All along the plan, we will reach 49. I would think that we will reach 49 in the year 2023, and then we will be around 50, and in the year 2030, we will reach 52, if I'm right, and the reason is mainly that the technology that fixed price will be or would be the combined cycle. We don't expect to reach the EUR 20 per MWh of gas up to the year 2030.
You should remember that, for sure, you remember that in the year 2018, the price of gas was EUR 24. So what we are expecting is a weak cost of gas that will recover, let's say that, in the year 2023 for us, and will maintain a little bit below the 20s that we used to have and above the 20s in the past. Luca, I will explain to you the CapEx and the solar, for sure.
Okay. Thank you, Pepe. So I think the first one has been addressed by Pepe Alberto. So moving to the CapEx per MW, I mean, in the current plan, two things are worth noticing is that in 2023, we have about EUR 800 million of CapEx which are not delivering capacity within the plan horizon, but will deliver about 1.8 GW of capacity beyond the plan horizon, so-called 2024 and 2025.
So taking out this capacity, the CapEx per megawatt in solar is in the region of EUR 500,000, as you mentioned, for solar and about EUR 900,000 for wind. Now, the evolution, obviously, of CapEx per megawatt beyond 2023, we expect solar still to drive a little bit further down, while for wind, it's still unclear, but it really will depend on the evolution of the technology of turbines. Therefore, you could expect something better between 2023 and 2030 when it comes to CapEx per megawatt. And obviously, in our plan, we not only put wind and solar capacity, but there is a lot of batteries. As we mentioned, we have 300 MW in this plan that obviously will evolve further. And obviously, there, the CapEx per megawatt for batteries is much higher. So that's how you reconcile the EUR 10 billion for our capacity in 2030.
Then when it comes to the capacity exposed to price in 2023, we will reach about 36 TWh exposed to price in 2023. The sensitivity is for 1 EUR/MWh or lower price, gross margin negative effect is in the region of 30-35 million EUR.
Okay. Thank you. The next question from the line is Javier Suárez from Mediobanca. Javier, your line is open.
Thank you, Mar. And thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the slide number 44 in the financial target that the company has presented. There is a decrease in the target versus the previous business plan in 2021, 2020, and 2022. Obviously, there is the COVID outbreak, and I think that the management has been clear when saying that this is impacting the company.
But at the same time, there is also an increase in CapEx that is remarkable in 2021 and also in 2022. So you can help us to understand and to elaborate for us these two dynamics, how they are changing your business plan build-up. So there is, on the one hand, the macro context, and on the other hand, the acceleration on CapEx, and how that is fitting into your growth that seems to be in 2021 and 2022 lower than previously forecasted. Then yesterday, on the business plan presentation by Enel, the company provides with guidance for the medium term up to 2030. So I wanted to ask to Endesa the same question. How do you see your financials evolving to 2030 as well?
Do you think that these low mid-single digit growth in EBITDA and net income is sustainable up to 2030 in light of the big CapEx plan that maybe the company has to face? And also related to that, how do you see the net debt to EBITDA position of the company evolving in that period of time? So you are going to increase to 2.3 times by 2023. How do you see that number evolving by 2030? And the very last question is on hydrogen and EU funds, which is the question is on the hydrogen through the hydrogen value chain, where Endesa does see its role and how Endesa believes that they can play a role in the hydrogen opportunity. And also on the EU recovery plan, have you included any proceeds from this EU recovery plan?
And if not, how do you think that this could impact your business plan or your business plan delivery in 2021, 2023? Many thanks.
Okay, Javier, thank you. Well, let me and again, Luca will answer. But let me say some things with regard to the first and the third question. The first thing is that I would title this strategic plan, and it is a sentence from an Italian colleague, making sense of uncertainty, making sense of uncertainty. In that, well, it is clear for us that the economy has been severely affected by the energy demand and the commodity prices just because of the COVID. And we are moving in an uncertain context in the future. As I have said, we don't know exactly how we hope just that in the H1 of the next year, we will really finish with this nightmare.
But the real thing is that we don't know, and we could be affected even more than we forecasted. So in that case, we have tried to put some sense, as I have said. And that means just to be prudent in the sense of how the context, the demand, how the commodities are going to evolve in the future. And that is the reason why, and for me, it's remarkable, almost maintained the results of the previous plan in the previous years, that is 2021 and 2022, with this. But on top of that, we believe that there are opportunities, and it's a huge opportunity, the energy transition in the future. And we should not stop with this, I would say, short negative effect of the pandemic. So that is the reason why we have reduced a little our results in the year 2021 and 2022.
More or less, we continue in the year 2023 growing, and on the other hand, we are increasing our investment, our CapEx, because we are convinced absolutely that we have been working during the last years on preparing the company for the energy transition, for the digitalization, and with the focus on efficiency and the customer-centric. We are very well prepared for this future, and this pandemic is going to affect us, of course, and all the people, but in a very short time only. With regard to the hydrogen and the European Union funds and the role of Endesa, we have presented 22 projects, if I am right, more or less 22 projects of hydrogen. What we believe is that it is a huge opportunity, and hydrogen will be complementary to the electrification, to the electrification. It will take some time.
Perhaps we don't expect any result, any meaningful result in the next three years. But without any doubt, the hydrogen will be the complement of the electrification just to reach these heavy industries and heavy vehicles for the decarbonization. That is. Let me say also that the hydrogen will give a lot of benefit, not only in relation with the substitution of the fuel of these industries and vehicles. First of all, you should think that if we are trying to increase the renewables in the system, just to regulate all the production of the renewables could be made by means of the battery storage or also by means of the hydrogen that will be produced at very low prices just because it's going to take into account the excess of energy during the day. That is the first thing to regulate this. And there is another opportunity.
Luca has said something in the previous question. We are trying just to decarbonize the island system. One of the ways to decarbonize the island system is the hydrogen, in the sense, in that case, not only just to increase the penetration of the renewables, but also to produce hydrogen and to substitute these fuel and gas oil fuels, expensive one and contaminating for this hydrogen. We really believe that hydrogen will have a very important role in the future. Second, it will take a little just to get this hydrogen competitive in prices. Third, we would like not only to be one of the players in this game of the hydrogen, but also to create opportunities in all the value chain for the industry in Spain. Third, we have asked for funds in the European Union and the role of Endesa.
We are or we will be absolutely committed to the development of this new energy. And now I give the word to Luca.
Thank you, Pepe. Javier, on your first question. So new yearly EBITDA projections are lower clearly of the previous plan in about EUR 350 million, impacted by a worse context. It's about EUR 500 million of gross margin impact in 2021 and 2022. Despite the larger investment, which is basically EUR 1.6 billion more, and other higher effort in efficiencies, which will account for EUR 150 million less of cost, it implies the postponement basically of one year of the EBITDA targets of the previous plan. And the liberalized margin is expected to show lower results than the old plan.
This is driven, again, EUR 500 million more or less is the impact. It is driven by the worsening of the macro scenario, which is composed of lower OTC references for about EUR 200 million. Obviously, the new Catalan tax for about another EUR 200 million and tougher condition in the gas business for about EUR 100 million. Obviously, the regulated margin remains quite stable with a slight increase versus the previous plan. So that's explaining the 2021 and 2022 revision in terms of EBITDA targets. Then to your second question, 2030 guidance as far as financials, I can only say we haven't provided explicitly the guidance, but I can only say that the CAGR, as far as EBITDA, is very much in line to the CAGR we are proposing with this plan, so within the 3% type of range.
When it comes to net debt to EBITDA evolution, we are ranging between two times and 2.5 times at 2030, more or less, and obviously, a lot will depend on the evolution of the scenario, and then on your fourth question, you asked also how much CapEx we are counting on the recovery plan within this business plan. I can tell you that less than 4% of total CapEx is something that we are counting on potentially funds from the recovery plan.
Okay, thank you. Next question comes from Enrico Bartoli from MainFirst. Ciao, Enrico. Please go ahead with your questions.
Hi, Javier. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is regarding slide 23. You are showing a very significant increase in the total sales of energy by 2023, while the number of customers is remaining more or less unchanged.
I see that there is an increase in liberalized clients, but I guess that maybe you are refocusing your client base towards more B2B, if you can elaborate a bit on this, and if you can provide some hints on what the impact you expect from this on your supply margin. Regarding also the evolution of your electricity sales, if you can give us your view on how they are going to evolve by 2030, considering that particularly on the B2C side, the unit consumption is expected to grow very significantly. The second question is regarding your PV facilities linked with batteries. If you can give us some color on the level of profitability that you expect from this plan, considering the still high cost of batteries, and your view, if possible, on how you see the evolution of the cost of batteries over the next decade.
Last one, just a clarification on the ordinary profit for 2020. I guess that you include as ordinary also the reversion of provisions that you had in the first quarter. If you confirm that, then I understand that the dividend distribution this year would be based on this assumption. Thank you.
Okay, Enrico. Let me say again some things with regard to your question, and then Luca will deeply explain things. With regard to the supply business, well, first of all, we have had a reduction in the consumption of our customers during the year 2020 due to the COVID impact. That is clear. We will try to recover, let me say, in volumes, if I'm right, the impact has been something around EUR 30 million. But just to undo the close position, that it's something around EUR 80 million.
Just the evolution of the margin that we are going to have in the year 2021 mainly is the recovery of this negative impact and a little bit more. In terms of customers, what happened, that is, and then we have, I would say, a very conservative evolution. But what it is true is that we have been losing customers during the last years. We are not worried about this because being the leader of this market in Iberia, it is normal just to lose customers. We try really to look for solutions that increase the loyalty of our customers, giving them a better value proposal and all things, not trying to go directly to a price war against our competitors. So we try to give value to our customers and then to retain these customers and to create a different thing.
One of the things is what Luca has told in the presentation, this new tariff that we call Unica Tariff, that it's going to be like a subscriber tariff in the sense that you will have a flat tariff not only for the commodity but also for some services, and we will use the concept of platform in the sense that we will put other services, our own services, but also services coming from third parties. This is going to be, let me say, a revolution in the electricity sales that I hope that I expect that will give us a successful position in the future, increasing this loyalty, but in this plan, what we have established is just not to lose clients in the year 2021, to maintain, to increase a little in the year 2022 and 2023.
But we are going to recover the terawatt-hour that we have lost, and mainly we have lost this terawatt-hour in the B2B. With regard to the ordinary net income or EBITDA or whatever, Luca will explain to you, but absolutely, we are not including the provision, the positive provisions that we have in this figure. But Luca, could you explain?
Thank you, Pepe. Yes, on your fourth question, Enrico, the 2020 net ordinary income guidance includes the reversal of the provision booked in the first quarter, as already discussed in previous conference call. Then for your first question, as Pepe pointed out, we are also facing a regulated tariff where the current environment is moving more difficult to move regulated customers to the free customer base. Hence, we are having actually a lower increase in free customers during this plan vis-à-vis the previous plan.
However, marginality, so the integrated margin in supply is moving from EUR 10-EUR 11 MWh, which is actually the strategy we are doing. So we are preserving margin or increasing slightly margin at the expense of a different client mix driven by the competition for both the liberalized business as well as the regulated tariff. When it comes to electricity sales, indication for 2030, I can tell you that we will be approaching something similar to the 110 TWh approximately of sales for 2030, of which about 100 will be basically free customer sales. And then on the third question, returns of PV plants with batteries, I think here it's very difficult to give you an answer because it really depends on the combination of the two.
I mean, what is the generation of the plant, how much batteries we are putting in the plant, and obviously, when dispatching, whether these plants can actually serve or obtain ancillary services type of revenues, which is something, for example, we are doing or we will be doing in the Portuguese auction awarded capacity. The cost of batteries still range in the region of slightly below EUR 1 million euros per MWh battery installed, and the evolution, obviously, will this cost decrease over time. Now, I think it's very difficult to give you an estimate on how quick it will decrease in the next decade. And I guess I've answered all your questions.
Okay, thank you, Enrico. We move to the next question that comes from José Ruiz from Barclays. José, the line is open.
Yeah, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. I just have two.
The first one is related to Tarifa Única. I was wondering what is the retention period for the customers, if there is any, and if that would affect your hedging policy going forward. The second question is related to the unit integrated margin. Last year, you were given EUR 30 per MW for 2022. Now you're given only 2023 to 2031. Could you tell us what is kind of the guidance for 2022 so I can compare to last year? Thank you very much.
Thank you, José. Well, for the Tarifa Única, let me say, in our commercial policy, we don't impose any period of retention of our customers. So our customer, and this is something that really differentiates us from the other competitors, we give the possibility to our customer to move to other company when they want.
Because we believe that it has no sense just to impose a period of time staying with us. In any case, what we think with this Tarifa Única is that the money is up to date in the first days that we are selling this tariff. The answer of the customer time, and that is a question. When you change or you introduce a new tariff, it takes some time for the customer to understand exactly the benefit, etc. And we are really trying to innovate on this, and it will take some time. But we are happy in the way in which it is going on this new tariff. Well, I think that Luca will give you the unitary integrated margin. I think it was something around 30, but in any case, Luca will give you.
Thank you, Pepe. Yes, José Ruiz, for the unit integrated margin.
First of all, the 2020 starting point ex the benefit of the short position, which I think we commented several times, would be in the region of 29 EUR/MWh versus obviously the 32 EUR/MWh that we are guiding for, which includes the short position. We have an evolution which is in the range of 30 EUR/MWh for both 2021 and 2022, and reach 31 EUR/MWh in 2023.
Okay. Next question comes from Javier Garrido from J.P. Morgan. Javier, go ahead, please.
Yeah, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First one would be, again, on the Tarifa Única model, the subscription model. When you look at the margins that you expect for these clients, are those margins higher if the clients take on additional services? Or just based on the plain vanilla supply of electricity and gas, you expect higher margins from this subscription model?
And the second question would be on Enel X. You are still expecting virtually a doubling of margins for gross margin for Enel X, but it's been a bit disappointing throughout the last three years where we have seen very little growth. What has been the reason for the underperformance versus expectations in results from Enel X even before the pandemic, and what can change in the next couple of years? And then the third question, and apologies because it might be a very basic question, but would you mind to explain to us how do you see the price-setting mechanism in the wholesale market in Spain in 2023 and beyond? Because you mentioned in the previous question gas prices and CCGTs, marginal cost of CCGTs.
But given the very low load factor expected for CCGTs in the next few years, what is going to be the true influence of CCGTs? How many hours or what proportion of price-setting will come from CCGTs, and what will happen with the rest? Just to try to understand your prediction of an ever-rising wholesale price to 52 EUR/MWh in 2030. Thank you.
Okay, thank you, Javier. Well, first of all, with regard to the Tarifa Única, well, services give us, on top of the commodity, give us an extra margin, very important extra margin. More important than that is that we really create a different relationship with the customer in which the loyalty and the benefit for the customer and also for us are greater than when you sell only one or two commodities. We try to give our customer a full, let's say, service.
We have launched and we have put the basis for being or give in a very effective way this value proposal in the future. It's not easy. You need to digitalize all the things. You need to have a lot of data. We are working on this digitalization in the last year, as you know. Well, this is perhaps one of the first steps, and we will see more in the next future based on our efforts in digitalization. Well, you have asked also about what will change in Enel X in the future because, using your words, you have said that has been a little bit disappointing, the evolution of Enel X. Well, I agree with you, not in the sense of disappointing, but in the sense that it has been the evolution slower than we forecasted.
When you change and you know that we have mature services and new services. Let me say that today, with the mature services, we are creating the basis, the foundation for the future, for the new services. And be sure that these new services will be in the game in the future. We are talking about electric recharging points. We are talking about demand response. We are talking about the batteries. We are talking about a lot of things that perhaps our mistake was to think that the evolution would be faster than it is. But we are very proud about what we have done because we have created the basis for these new services in the future being a reality, being a reality.
So, well, step by step, day by day, and we expect, and that is what we have written in our plan, that the evolution will be faster in the next versus the last year in the next years. But again, let me say, it is one of our bases for the future in which we would like to continue being one of the leaders in the energy sector. The last question, I think, is the price setting. If I have understood, well, you talked about what's happening with prices, what's happening with combined cycles. Well, let me say, I'm sure that my colleagues will say that what I am going to tell you now is not something based on realities or whatever. If you take the price, the variable cost of a combined cycle and multiply it by 0.9, you'll pay more or less the price, the full price.
That is not for always, but for the next year, next three years, it is right. Let me say, well, if we take into account that the gas price has been something lower than 9 in the year 2020, and the CO2, let's say 25, the variable cost of a combined cycle is something around 35 or 36 or something like that. If you multiply it by 0.9, you obtain the 32, more or less. What we are expecting for the next year is the evolution and the rise of the price of the gas, as I have said, lower than the 20. I would say 14, 15 in the next year, perhaps 16 and 22 and 17 in the 2023. And the CO2 reaching the level of EUR 30 per tonne.
If we have this, something between 14-15 to 17, and something around 30 in the CO2, then we'll reach prices of variable cost of the combined cycles between 50-55, more or less. So if you multiply, you will give why we think that prices would be in the range of 47-49 or even higher. But we want to be cautious, and that is the price that we have used. Having said that, some of my colleagues could explain to you the different models that we have, very much sophisticated, and how we obtain these prices. But believe me, I don't know the hours in which the combined cycle fixed price. I don't know anything, but if I take these prices of the variable cost of the combined cycles and multiply by 0.9, I obtain the price of the pool.
And Luca, perhaps you could add something.
Yes, just adding on what Pepe said regarding the power price and expectation of hours of margin impact by CCGTs. Basically, we have an estimation as far as hours in the region of 40%-50% by 2030 of CCGTs. 30% interconnection with France, which I remind is increasing throughout this decade, and about 20%-30% on renewables, obviously, which has a very low variable cost below 10 EUR/MWh. And that gives us, let's say, a landing price on nominal terms above 50 in the region of 52 EUR/MWh by 2030.
Okay, thank you, Javier. We move to the next question that comes from Manuel Palomo from Exane BNP Paribas. Manuel, the line is yours.
Thank you. Hello, Mar. Thanks for taking my questions.
To start with, I'd like to ask a follow-up on your recent question to Javier on power prices. When you say 2023, 40%-50% of the time CCGTs set the marginal price, do you mean that 40%-50% will be the load factor of CCGTs? Or maybe what you're saying is that in 50% of the hours, the price will be set at the CCGT marginal price, meaning that might be set with hydro at that same price? Because otherwise, to be honest, I struggle to understand how load factors for CCGTs could reach 40%-50%. Second question is on, again, another follow-up. I've been doing some rough calculations. I appreciate, Luca, the input you gave us on unitary costs for solar and wind, 0.5 and 0.9.
But if I take those numbers and multiply by the number of megawatts that you aim to install in the period, the amount of CapEx for renewable is clearly very well. When I say very well, it's in my calculation more than EUR 1 billion below what you say will be the renewable CapEx in the period 2021, 2023. So my question is, are you assuming any acquisition in renewables that explain that gap, or what am I missing? Thanks for helping.
Okay, Manuel, thank you very much for the questions. Well, in terms of how many hours CCGT fixed prices, well, I would say the rule of thumb that something around 1,000 or 1,200 hours. But on top of that, you should take into account that this is the reference price for, for example, the hydro.
Hydro will offer just EUR 0.01 less than the price estimated for the combined cycles. That gives us something that really now CCGT fixed prices around 80% of the time, 80% of the time, and then the interconnection with France fixed prices 20% of the time. In the future, in the year 2030, these figures will change. The problem is that the thermal gap will be reduced, and then it would be or we will see a lot of volatility in prices. Even more, our model what tells us is that we need to change the methodology, the mechanism of the pool price beyond the year 2030. That is more or less, and when Luca will answer you the second question and even the first one if you want to add something.
Okay, thanks. Manuel, on your second question, as I mentioned during the call and in some subsequent questions, we have about EUR 800 million of CapEx spending during 2023 that will deliver capacity beyond 2023, 2024, and 2025. It's about EUR 800 million for 1.8 GW of capacity that comes online after 2023. So to give you an exact calculation for solar, it's about EUR 300 million. So you need to basically subtract the EUR 1.9 billion of development CapEx minus this EUR 300 million. You divide it by the capacity we are installing, which is 3 GW. You get to about EUR 500,000 per MW installed. For wind, it's about EUR 500 million, the CapEx that will deliver capacity beyond 2023.
So you need to subtract this from the EUR 1.3 billion that are in the plan and divide it by 0.9 GW of capacity, and you get to a multiple per megawatt installed that is in the region of EUR 900,000.
Okay, we move now to Jorge Alonso from Société Générale. Jorge, please go ahead with your questions.
Hi, good morning to everybody, and thanks for taking the questions. Just following up with these, Luca, would it be as well some CapEx in the networks that will not be contributing to EBITDA by 2023? So it's some work in progress as well that will contribute thereafter. The second question is related to the Catalonian tax. I guess that in the 2023 targets, you are still assuming this is in place, or are you assuming somehow recovery at some point in time?
The last one is to take your view about your expectations of close to one gigawatt of renewable installation beyond 2023 on an annual basis, which looks a little bit conservative looking at the energy transition targets, etc., etc. But would this respond because you think profitability may be eroded and it could be better just to acquire energy from other developers? Or simply do you think that the annual installation will be in the range of 3-4 gigas a year, and then you think that one giga for you could be enough market share? Thank you very much.
Okay, Jorge, thank you very much for your question. I will try to answer the one of the Catalan tax. Well, as you know, in our opinion, the Catalan tax is absolutely unconstitutional. And then we will try just to remove this tax. I hope that we will be successful in that thing. But in any case, today we have this tax, and we have included this tax in our numbers even in the year 2023. And then Luca will answer you the rest.
Thank you, Pepe. Jorge, on your first question, unfortunately not, in the sense that all CapEx basically invested in networks will pay off during the period of the plan, so we don't have any decalage there. And I can also maybe specify that with these CapEx plans, we're getting to the 100% limit cap in terms of investment in networks, which was one of the things I think we discussed previously with many of your colleagues. When it comes to the third question, so average annual installation base.
So this installation of Vision 2030 of 1 giga per year is just based on the pipeline we have today, in the sense that as you've seen in the plan, we have basically a path of installation that is in the region of 700 MW 2021, 1.4 GW in 2022, and we're reaching 1.7 GW in 2023. So the question for us is how much we can accelerate confirming or maintaining the returns that we are basically delivering today with these developments. So to cut a long story short, if we are in a position to accelerate further the annual rate of installation, we will do so, and we are working to that end.
Okay, thank you, Jorge. Next question comes from Jorge Guimarães from JB Capital. Please, Jorge, go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my question. I have three.
First, is it possible to elaborate on the efficiency gains you are pointing to for the current 5-35? EUR 0.4 billion of efficiency gains. Is it possible to provide us any guidance per business area? The second one would be if it's possible to provide us with a rough view of how much EBITDA from liberalized is effectively coming from supply. And the final one, it's a more qualitative question. Yesterday, Enel mentioned a stewardship model for some of its business areas. Is it something that could be also applied at the Endesa level? And if so, how it would be? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Jorge, for the question. I will try to answer the third one, the stewardship model. Well, I think it's something that will happen in the future in at least the energy business.
If you had the opportunity to follow the Enel presentation, what they are thinking about is the own business and the stewardship business, let's say that, or model. But it is true that in the world in which we are living, making it sustainable, let me say this first, with the circular economy, etc., people will change from own to use, will change a lot of things. And the best service to our customer would be the one who gives them things on top of what we can offer to our customers. This model of stewardship, what it's trying to look for is how to create this platform in which we could offer all the services. And also, we could govern this platform in the sense that we are able, first of all, to offer a better service to our customers.
But second, to obtain an extra margin just because of the fees, just because of many things. I really believe this is the first step in the energy sector that will give the business model of the future. And in this sense, Enel is the first mover. I think they are in the right, absolutely the right way. And we will try to do the same in some time, but, well, it's different. It's a little bit different. But that is a very clear movement going forward in this business. And now I give the word to Luca.
Thank you, Pepe. On your first question, which is the cost evolution or the efficiency that we have in the business plan by business area, most of the cost reduction comes from generation thanks to the thermal closures.
It's about EUR 100 million, followed by retail in the region of EUR 45 million, distribution in the region of EUR 45 million, and some efficiency also in non-mainlands that benefited from efficiency brought by digitalization effort and personal cost book in 2020. Additionally, there are some corporate areas that also show some lower fixed cost thanks to the absence of extra cost from COVID in 2020. On the other side, obviously, the renewables business line will have an increase of about 90% in fixed cost, which is around EUR 80 million that is aligned to the capacity increase during the period. And to your second question, we do not provide supply EBITDA as we manage the supply together with the generation in the generation and supply business area.
Thank you, Jorge. We have now Fernando Lafuente from Alantra. Please, Fernando, go ahead.
Hello. Two questions for me, please.
Three. The first one, very specific. Can you give us an indication of the load factors that you are assuming for your new renewable capacity over the plan? And the second and the third are also related to renewables. It's basically, first, why are I mean, the speed up on the new capacity is quite material. Could you consider at some point during the plan, if you are able to buy a pipeline similar to that of Prodiel, to increase your what you call recurrent increase of capacity? Would it be on time for doing so in the case that the pipeline is in an advanced stage of development? Or is it really an alternative for you, or it's something that you would not consider? And the second one, on acquisitions, I mean, we've always asked for it. You've been very disciplined on that side.
I guess putting first profitability to growth. I would like to have your views on what we are seeing in the market, this M&A wave that we are seeing, and if you would be at some point willing to participate on it, and basically if you could see returns attractive in the current environment. Thank you.
Okay, Fernando, thank you for your question. Let me say with regard to if we are open just by pipelines, renewable pipeline, yes, absolutely, yes, absolutely, yes. In terms of M&A, we are always looking if there are some kind of opportunities around these, and especially with regard to renewables and regard to network. In the current environment, I think that there are increasing M&A opportunities, and as always, we are very participative, given that in Spain, we plan to accelerate organic and inorganic growth in both business, renewables and distribution. So absolutely, yes, we are looking for that. And now I give the word to Luca.
Thank you, Pepe. As far as load factor for average load factor for our new capacity for wind, it's in the region of between, I would say, 2,500 to 2,800 hours of load factor. And when it comes to solar PV, we're talking just slightly below 2,000 hours in terms of load factor. And as far as new capacity increase or acceleration to M&A, which Pepe just addressed, obviously, we are open, but as Pepe mentioned, I mean, obviously, we need to create value. And let's say our guidance here is the spread to market, which has to be 200 basis points. Hence, we are very cautious on multiples when it comes to pipeline. And there is pipeline available out there with good, I would say, before 2023.
Hence, there would be a possibility to accelerate, but again, a lot will depend on valuation.
Thank you, Fernando. This was the last question of our call. We have received several questions from the web, but to be honest, just there is only one question left that comes from Elchin Mammadov from Bloomberg that is in relation to the evolution of net debt to EBITDA ratio rising to 2.3 in 2023 versus previous target around two times. Would it impact your credit rating?
Maybe I'll take this question, Pepe. To be honest, I mean, our credit metrics are well above the current credit rating that Endesa has, which is driven, obviously, by the credit rating of the parent company of Enel. We have an FFO to debt, which is well above 30%, which deserves a single A type of rating.
So to answer your question, no, the increase of leverage to 2.3 doesn't affect our credit rating in any way, and we should be deserving actually a better rating of what we currently have.
Okay. Pepe, Luca, we are at the end of the event. Thanks to all of you. As always, our department is available if you need some follow-up questions. Thank you very much.