Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our 2022 capital market day. As you can see in the agenda now on the screen, our CEO, José Bogas, will illustrate our vision on Endesa in the energy context, as well as the main strategic actions. Our CFO, Luca Passa, will detail the main targets and financial figures of the 2023-25 plan. After some closing remarks, we will then open the Q&A session. Thank you. Now, I will g ive the fl oor to José Bogas.
Okay, thank you, Mar, and good morning to everyone. Over the last three years, we have endured unprecedented economic, social, and geopolitical disruption. The combined effect of COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War have drastically accelerated the need of an energy transition. Energy market design and supply chain restriction floors have clearly emerged, and governments are still struggling to find ways to ensure affordability of prices, security of supply, and environmental sustainability. In this context, the acceleration of the clean electrification of energy consumption appears as the way forward to enhance European energy system predictability, to reduce energy price volatility, and to contribute to the economic recovery. In Spain, the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan 2021 - 2030 set target for greenhouse gas emission reductions, renewable energy penetration, and energy effici ency.
This effort is consistent with the increase in European ambitions for 2030, as well as with the Paris Agreement. The package of initiative launched this year to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis point to a likely increase in 2030 emission reduction targets, which could rise from 55% - 57% through further development of renewable and energy efficiency. Moving to slide number five, our long-term vision relies on three main macro trends: decarbonization acceleration coupled with a clean electrification of the economy sped up, a clear customer-centric commercial focus, and digitalization reformance of the networks. Throughout 2022, we have continued to advance across all of our pillars, reaching new milestones. On decarbonization, since 2014, we have doubled our renewable capacity and reduced our carbon emission by 70%.
This continuous renewable development allow us to accelerate energy independence and to benefit from a more competitive commercial strategy, which in the last seven years has resulted in a 50% increase of power free customers. Finally, on networks, we remain committed to digitalization as a key factor to further improve security of supply and resiliency, as well as to accommodate additional demands from new generation technologies and customer needs. We adopted the strategic and managerial decisions very early to embark on a deep transformation of the company in order to gain an edge in the energy transition and position ourselves at an advantage to meet the challenges of new business opportunities. On slide number six, we show the evolution of our financial metrics since 2014.
Our strategic decision derive in a strong economic performance during the last years, as proven by the resiliency of our integrated business model, even in the most challenging and adverse years throughout our business plans. Our CapEx has more than doubled, focusing on renewables and networks in accordance with our energy transition long-term goals. EBITDA like for like is set to reach a range from EUR 5 billion-EUR 5.3 billion, increasing at a 6% annual compounded rate versus 2014 level. For 2022, as we advanced in 9-month 2022 call, the closing estimate is much higher than the target set in the previous CMD based on the solid 9-month results and with a fourth quarter that we expect will be in line with the third quarter.
Leveraged is expected to remain at a healthy level of 1.9 x by year-end, well below the sector average. The best recognition of the value we have created across the period is the 138% total shareholder return we have achieved since 2014 secondary offer. Endesa has been providing its shareholder with one of the most attractive returns in the industry, which compares very favorably with main stock market indexes. This performance has been also supported by the increased participation of Socially responsible investor, reaching almost 50% of our total shareholding as of December 2021, or around 50% of our free float.
Let's take a look at our main strategic actions over the plan period on slide number 8. Our integrated model provides a unique advantage to quickly respond and adapt to different market scenarios. Our aim is to cover a higher amount of fixed price customer contract with our increasing greenhouse gas free output, lowering our risk return profile and granting competitive prices to our customers. We will continue to progress in our energy mix decarbonization, boosting its competitiveness and sustainability, as well as our security of supply. We will keep reinforcing and developing new electricity distribution infrastructures as it is one of the fundamental enabling factors for the decarbonization and electrification of the economy.
Moving to the slide number nine, between 2023 and 2025, we will invest around EUR 8.6 billion to maximize returns, leveraging on our integrated position and focused on decarbonization and grids. 50% of the CapEx is devoted to continuing the decarbonization of our generation fleet with a total amount of EUR 4.3 billion. In electrification, as a result of the increase in consumption together with a progressive customer migration to free tariff, we are developing a wider range of services and therefore we are allocating 10% of total CapEx. The integration of growing renewable generation will be supported by EUR 2.6 billion investments in network to provide reliability and quality services to service to customers.
The investment plan of this state update increases total CapEx versus previous plan by 15%, supporting our commitment to clean decarbonization of the economy. When it comes to the first strategic action on slide number 10, we aim to increase our fixed price share on total power sales to 71% by 2025. More importantly, we plan to boost the greenhouse gas free sources over the next three years in order to cover more than 95% of these volumes under fixed price contract, implying a lower risk associated with exogenous market volatility, better sourcing costs, and an improvement in our margins going forward. In addition, this will allow us to broaden our commercial strategy to meet the growing appetite of our customers for new and more advanced value-added services based on cleaner electricity and the most efficient service at the lowest possible cost.
Moving to the next slide. Over the next three years, we will continue to create value for our customers by strengthening our commercial strategy with new products and services at affordable prices. Our strategic value creation for customers foresees a reduction of final selling price by 10%, -10% over the planned period. We will spend a total of EUR 0.9 billion to mainly boost our product range offer through the deployment acceleration of charging points that will increase five-fold in 2025, reaching around 66,000 public and private, and the ongoing focus in eHome contract with an increase of 2% in 2025, reaching 2.8 million contract. In the retail business, we will aim at promoting the adoption of highly to fully electric behavior with active customer portfolio management focused on increased value of products and services.
Starting from our large power customer portfolio of 6.9 million customers expected at the end of 2022, we target an increase of around 0.4 million customers in the free market to 7.3 million, while liberalized fixed price power sales will increase to around 51 terawatt-hour. As regards investment allocated to our renewables, and I am now on slide number 12, we are progressing at a fast pace towards an objective of becoming a zero emission company by 2040. We will invest EUR 4.3 billion by 2025, 39% more than previous plan, to add around 4.4 gigawatt to our installed capacity, out of which 3 gigawatt are in solar and 1.4 gigawatt in wind.
Expected unitary CapEx in 2023- 2025 will be affected by the current macro scenario of rising inflation and raw materials costs, resulting in an estimate of around EUR 0.7 million per megawatt in solar and around EUR 1.1 million per megawatt in wind. Renewable production will reach up to 85% of the total, reducing the overall cost of sourcing and support increased renewable e-energy customer demand. We expect CO2 emission-free production to represent 91% of mainland output, 19 percentage point above the current share and in a prominent position to fulfill carbon neutrality. Finally, we are expecting an additional 70% reduction in 2025 mainland direct emission versus 2022 year-end figure. Continuing with renewables and regarding the pipeline, I am now on slide number 13.
The ambitious renewable capacity growth is supported by a solid project portfolio, which we keep on building. Our gross pipeline currently stand at 85 gigawatt, one of the largest and most diversified development project portfolios in the industry. With solar technology representing the majority of these projects, mature and in execution project with code 2023-2025 are able to cover our capacity deployment by 2025 by 2 x. Around 30% of the 2023-2025 target additions are already addressed and 1 gigawatt currently in execution. We exclude from the pipeline the capacity addition that are due to come online by year-end, roughly 0.8 gigawatt. The residual capacity addition are supported by a mature pipeline that, excluding batteries, covers 4 x the target.
We continue to support the growth in storage with a relevant gross pipeline whose important in providing shorter, storage and flexibility services is becoming clearer. We will be gradually incorporating them into newly installed renewable capacity. Moving to slide number 14. Our renewable strategy allows us to confirm our decision to bring forward our net zero target by 10 years to 2040. This goal is even more ambitious than just achieving net zero, as we foresee to achieve it across all Scope without using any carbon removal technology or natural-based solutions. As of end 2025, we estimate lowering our Scope one specific emission to under 145 grams of CO2, which will represent a reduction of roughly 80% versus 2017 base year.
This allow us to confirm our 2030 target of below 95 grams per kWh. We are developing a business model in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, a commitment that remains at the very center of our strategic plan and include the mitigation of all three Scopes across our value chain according to the 1.5 degree centigrade pathway. In relation to Scope three, we expect to reduce from 12.2 - 10.7 million tons CO2 in 2025 and to 6.6 million tons of CO2 in 2030. In addition, and in line with our aim to exit carbon-intensive activities, we plan to take advantage of the current exceptional market environment to crystallize the value of our gas assets.
Looking at how much CapEx is needed to deliver reliable and safe electricity to our customers. I am on slide number 15. The creation of resilient and digitalized infrastructures will result in a better service for our customers. More than 75% of our CapEx will be deployed into ongoing digitalization and quality and resiliency of our asset as a key driver of efficiency and reduced network interruption, resulting in a reduction of TIEPI and NIEPI of 26% and 11% respectively, as well as the lower two percentile points in losses. The remaining CapEx is devoted to increasing connection, accommodating the future pickup in distributed energy resources. Our commitment to grid is to grid as enablers of the energy transition plan foresees investment of EUR 2.6 billion, slightly below the previous plan, adapting to a context of higher uncertainty and risks.
RAP at the end of 2025 will decrease to EUR 11.3 billion. On slide number 16, you can see a brief snapshot of what Endesa will look like in 2025. An attractive commercial strategy implementation will result in a remarkable increase in our free customer base for 2025, reaching a total of 7.3 million clients. Likewise, the growing share of generation free gas sources will allow us to cover more than 95% of our fixed price contract, reducing sourcing costs, risk exposure, and improving profitability. Renewable capacity will amount to around 14 GW, 66% of the mainland generation fleet, with an emission-free output of 91%. As key enabler of the energy transition, grids will play the crucial role. 42% of the total distribution CapEx will be in digitalization, improving network performance.
As a result of our quality improvement effort, the time of interaction metric will go down to 42 minutes. Moving now to slide number 17. Our strategic vision will create value to our stakeholders. The integrated commercial approach will result in a sound increase of at least 300 basis points of our return on investment capital for all of our stakeholder. In addition, it will allow our customer to reduce the overall energy spending by 10% while benefiting from an increase in service quality levels. The decarbonization of our generation mix and customer electrification in the 2022 to 2025 period will allow us to reduce the Scope one generation greenhouse gas emission intensity by 33%. Circular economy is integrated in our strategy as an additional feature to our long-term vision.
Our direct and indirect investment, as well as an array of shared value creation project developed in the local communities where our, where our projects are and assets are located, will enable a accumulated increase of the gross domestic product of around EUR 10 billion. We will also continue to pay particular attention to the supplier qualification process, which incorporates strict requirements in decarbonization, safety, and human right related rules. Such policies imply that 62% of our suppliers' value is currently guaranteed by carbon footprint certification, and we expect to extend this criterion to the 75% of our suppliers. Now I will hand over to Luca to explain the strategic plan over the next three years.
Thank you, Pepe. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Let's get into the details of the plan, starting with CapEx on slide 19. As Pepe mentioned before, our capital allocation has two clear purposes: support our integrated commercial strategy, devoting EUR 5.9 billion along the period, and leverage on networks with EUR 2.6 billion CapEx as a key enabler of renewable penetration and energy efficiency for our customers. In total, we plan to invest around EUR 8.6 billion during the next three years, an increase of 15% compared to the plan presented last year. We will continue to apply sustainable criteria in all our investment decisions with around 90% CapEx aligned with the UN SDG, directly targeting SDG 7, 9, and 11, while all of them contribute to the wider SDG 13 to fight agai
nst climate change.
In addition, and according to our estimate, based on the common framework provided by the European Union, more than 80% of our CapEx is aligned to the EU Taxonomy criteria due to their substantial contribution to climate change mitigation. This percentage does not include conventional generation, retail, and other CapEx. On slide 20, we present EBITDA evolution along the business plan with ranges of around EUR 0.3 billion due to the extreme volatility of regulatory and energy market context. EBITDA like-for-like will be growing by 4%, moving from around EUR 5.3 billion-EUR 5.5 billion, mostly due to the distribution once it recovers from the negative non-recurrent book in 2022, while the integrated commercial strategy, defined as power generation and Endesa X and retail, is expected to stabilize along the business plan after an extraordinary expected 2022 year-end performance.
Renewable EBITDA, including large hydro assets, will increase EUR 0.5 billion, supported mainly by the ongoing capacity expansion driving larger volumes, and the expected normalization of weather conditions compared to 2022, one of the driest of last decades. Customer EBITDA, which includes Endesa X, will expand a sound EUR 1.3 billion, supported by a +EUR 1.1 billion of better supply margin, thanks to lower sourcing cost by EUR 1.5 billion, around -40% in unitary terms, driven by the positive impact of the replacement of market purchases and thermal output with new renewable output for 10 terawatt-hours at EUR 65 megawatt-hour and lower ancillary services that compensate the fixed selling price reduction by -EUR 0.5 billion, due to the decrease of -10% of unitary fixed selling price.
Endesa X marginal increase and the absence of negative gas retail margin booked in 2022. Finally, conventional generation and others experience a sharp reduction by EUR 1.7 billion, affected by the absence of non-recurrent items, thermal margin reductions once combined cycle productions comes to a normalized levels for EUR 0.5 billion, -EUR 0.2 billion in nuke due to higher variable cost, no mainland reduction driven by RAB decrease, gas wholesale normalization for -EUR 0.3 billion, and lower mark-to-market for -EUR 0.3 billion, which is not expected along the plan. On slide 21, we represent EBITDA evolution in accordance with the integrated generation strategy taxonomy introduced yesterday by Enel in their CMD.
Over the plan, we will invest close to EUR 6 billion in our integrated commercial strategy, being 90% allocated to power generation and the remaining 10% to customers, and expecting to achieve a spread over WACC above 300 basis points, also considering regulatory risk. The EBITDA evolution within the integrated strategy includes the integrated power margin that I will deep dive on the next slide. The regulated generation and retail, including mainly non-mainland and regulated power retail. OpEx, excluding direct fixed cost in generation that are considered under the integrated power margin as industrial sourcing cost. Gas and trading and other businesses that I have just explained are impacted by the absence of non-recurrent items, gas wholesale normalization, lower mark-to-market, short position decrease, and others. Focusing on the evolution of the integrated power margin, and I'm now on slide number 22.
As Peter explained, the growth is driven by our commercial strategy based on a higher coverage of our fixed price sales, with our clean production, sold to customers at affordable prices. From a commercial perspective, we are forecasting a slight increase in fixed price retail volumes of 1 terawatt hour, and better results from Endesa X, offset by -EUR 0.5 billion, due to lower fixed selling price that are expected to decrease about 10%.
From a sourcing perspective, EBITDA increases by EUR 1.2 billion, driven by -EUR 0.3 billion from scenario impact, consequence of higher variable cost in infra-marginal technologies due to higher taxation, plus EUR 1.5 billion in generation mixed sales coverage from lower sourcing cost of around 40%, driven by the positive impact of market purchases and thermal output replacement with new renewable output for about 10 terawatt hours to cover 95% of fixed price sales. Moving to networks on slide 23. We plan to invest around EUR 2.6 billion, with an expected return of plus 100 basis points over WACC, which we estimate around 4.3%. The regulatory context has resulted in lower CapEx by 10%.
That implies a progressive reduction in the Regulated Asset Base to EUR 11.3 billion, due to yearly investment being lower than allowed D&A. The lower regulatory remuneration, due to RAB decrease, is offset by the increase of other margin, that includes rental meters, connection, facilities seeded by clients, among others. Total fixed costs are expected to be flat, as inflation effect in fixed cost is compensated by efficiencies. Moving now to efficiency on slide 24. The focus on efficiency remains at the core of our strategy. Fixed costs increase around 5%, impacted by the exceptional inflationary context, now above 8%, doubling the old plan estimates. The CPI effect amounting to EUR 0.2 billion, as well as the growth effect, are partially offset by the efficiency improvements, mainly renewable generation. In networks, the unitary cost increased by 7%, considering only recurrent OpEx.
Cost to serve is expected to grow by 5% in the current inflationary context. On net ordinary income evolution on slide number 25. Net ordinary income will come in at around EUR 2 billion-EUR 2.1 billion by 2025, down 9% versus 2022 year end on year. The EBITDA to net ordinary income conversion ratio evolves from 43% in 2022 to approximately 38%, estimated in 2025, due to the following effects. D&A will increase by around 16%, with higher amortization due to growth investment efforts focused on distribution and renewables for about EUR 210 million. Customer amortization increase due to volumes by around EUR 80 million. Maintenance CapEx amortization of thermal activity on an aged fleet with shorter residual life by around EUR 130 million.
On the other end, bad debts provision remains mostly flat in absolute terms from the increased figures of 2022. Net financial charges will increase by EUR 0.1 billion, mainly as a result of higher expected cost of debt, despite the sharp reduction in gross debt from EUR 18.8 in 2022 to EUR 13.2 in 2025, as I will explain later on. Taxes will show a reduction of EUR 0.1 billion, mainly due to the lower results before taxes. I remind you that we are assuming that the new tax on utilities may not impact 2022, while it's contemplated in the intermediate years of 2023 and 2024, impacting EBITDA and net ordinary income as the tax is not deductible. Finally, minorities will remain flat along the period.
Now, moving to the financial management section, I'm now on slide number 27. Concerning cash flow generation and evolution of net debt on slide 27, as anticipated in our 9-month results call, with no further regulatory intervention and a stabilization of the market scenario, we expect to close 2022 with a net debt of around EUR 10 billion-EUR 10.5 billion. Generation of funds along the business plan will be at EUR 10 billion, being affected by the new tax on utilities pending to be approved for 2023 and 2024, with an estimated impact between EUR 0.5 billion and EUR 0.6 billion according to the new draft. We expect net debt to increase slightly over the plan horizon of around EUR 1.6 billion, considering a cash flow outflow for investment of EUR 7.7 billion and dividend payment of EUR 3.8 billion.
Gross debt is expected to substantially decrease to a range of EUR 12.7 billion and EUR 13.2 billion, mainly as a consequence of the balance of collaterals reaching EUR 1 billion in 2025. As commented in our nine months 2022 results presentation, we expect collateral volumes to notably reduce as derivative materials starting from 2023, at a rate of around EUR 400 million per month, assuming the current forward prices. As a consequence of the macroeconomic context and the raise of interest rates, the cost of debt is expected to increase from 1.5% expected at the end of 2022 to 2.7% in 2025. Finally, we will see an increase of the cash conversion of EBITDA measures as FFO to EBITDA by 20 percentage points.
Regarding credit metrics, I'm now on slide 28, we have put in place a number of financial initiatives strengthening the liquidity position, reaching levels we find sufficiently comfortable, both in the short and the medium terms. Current liquidity position amounts to EUR 8.4 billion, with maturities averaging 3.1 years as the fixed rate gross debt represent 62% once excluding collaterals. Net debt will increase by EUR 1.6, as said before, along the period, leading to the leverage measures as net debt to EBITDA ratio to 2.1 by 2025, slightly higher than in 2022, but still at a healthy levels and well below the industry average. Thanks to the progressive improvements in generation fleet, the FFO to net debt ratio is set to increase by seven percentage points re-reaching a healthy level of 31% by 2025.
Now focusing on the financing strategy, we will continue to tap sustainability-linked instruments to support our growth, and I'm now on slide 29. This year, we have implemented a number of instruments for a total of EUR 13.6 billion. The most remarkable transaction to date are the increase in the limit of our SDG 7 Euro Commercial Paper program from EUR 4 billion to EUR 5 billion, and the first sustainability-linked EIB loan for the development of smart grids in Spain. Our aim is to progressively refinance upcoming maturities and raise new funding via sustainability-linked instrument. The sustainable finance source now represents more than 65% of our gross debt, and over the plan, it will increase to more than 85% in 2025. Now, let me hand over to Pepe for his conclusion on the presentation.
Okay, thank you, Luca. Progress in our operation is reflected in our target for the period. I am on slide number 31. After an extraordinary 2022 that will beat the target set in the last year's CMD, we expect to reach in 2025 an EBITDA of EUR 5.2 billion-EUR 5.5 billion, which implies a CAGR of 8% 2023-2025. Net ordinary income is expected to range around EUR 2 billion-EUR 2.1 billion by 2025, explained by the growth in EBITDA and the negative evolution of the D&A and financial resolve mentioned before. This implies a CAGR of 18% over the 2023-2025.
2023 and 2024 results are heavily impacted by the regulatory context, specifically by the new expected to be approved tax on utilities around EUR 300 million per year at EBITDA and net ordinary income level. Dividend policy will be maintained along the period, with a payout ratio of 70% offering an estimated dividend per share of EUR 1.4 per share by 2025. 2022 dividend per share is estimated around EUR 1.5 per share, which will be paid in a single payment unlike what has been done in recent years. The decision has been adopted under a prudent criteria, considering the current context and the temporary liquidity situation that we expect to improve in the coming month. 2023 onwards, we intend to resume ordinary dividend distribution into payments January and July.
To end this presentation on slide number 32, I would like to share some closing remarks. We are embarked on a deep transformation of the company towards a net zero emission target by 2040, and ready to face the challenges from the energy transition. This plan update has been affected by the unprecedented price scenario that has triggered several regulatory intervention, both at the European Union and country level, which will be affecting our financial performance in the short term. We expect our integrated business strategy to allow us to successfully navigate this complex scenario while offering sustainable and attractive returns over the medium to long term. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our strategy update presentation. Thank you very much for your attention, and we are ready to take some questions.
Okay, many things, Pepe and Luca. Now we are open to answer all the questions you may have.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star two on your telephone keypad. To ask a question, please ensure your telephone is unmuted locally. Mrs. Mar Martínez, Head of Investor Relations, please go ahead.
Okay, we'll start with the first analyst, Alberto Gandolfi from Goldman Sachs. Please, Alberto, go ahead.
Thank you, Mar, good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three. The first one was a favorite topic, of, you know, the parent company yesterday. Can I ask, please, on assumptions? I know you look at the business on an integrated basis, but I think some people misunderstood and mistook some of the power price forecast that you have with the achieved price you're actually using your earnings target. Could you tell us in an imply, on an implied basis, on an embedded basis, what is the power price you are using throughout 2023, 2025? Are you using the current cap of EUR 65, again, as an implied embedded price or EUR 67, or what are you using there?
Maybe if you can be a bit clear on, also scope, what disposals are you taking out of your forecast, if at all? I think you were very clear on regulations, no questions there. That's the first one, power price disposal. The second one, I think the breach Luca presented was very clear, could it magnify a little bit retail here? It seems like the biggest novelty is that now you're targeting retail margins that you seemingly have never achieved before. Can you maybe explain what type of tariff increase have you put through in the second half of 2022 and/or you expect to put through at the beginning of 2023, coupled with the renewable additions to cut procurement costs, that these two elements underpin the increase in retail margins?
That'd be very helpful. I think it's quite clear on volumes. The last question is you still remain short generation. My question is, you have a big pipeline, you have a very strong balance sheet. What stops you from adding 2-3 gigawatts of plants per year, given you're mostly adding on a merchant basis? Is it permitting the bottleneck? Do you expect this to change? Thank you so much.
Okay. Thank you, Alberto, for the question. I don't know if clarify or not, but I will give the word to Luca Passa to really try to clarify a little bit more. Let me say, with regard to the assumption that we have in our power prices, or power, forward power prices of the whole wholesale. Well, yesterday, it was a little surprise with our, if I'm right, 117 EUR per megawatt hour. Let me say that it is based in our assumption. In our assumption, one of the main assumption is the gas price for the year 2025. We are using PVB.
We don't have, at least I don't know now, this quotation, this forward for the year 2025, but we have the one of the TTF. The one of the TTF is something around 70 EUR per terawatt hour. That means that it has sense if the price of the TTF is 70, this price of 61 of the PBVs are the right price. Taking into account this, the price, the whole, the power price, the forward power price in the year 2025 could be or will be 117 EUR. That is the first thing. In my opinion, that seems to indicate that the longer forwards market, generally very liquid, are trading at a discount, at least in my opinion.
That is the first thing. The second thing is that our infra marginal output is being sold during all the plan, that is 2023 - 2025, at EUR 65 per megawatt hour, as we have or we have tried to explain in the presentation. In spite of this, we never use the reference of the macro context assumed in the business plan, that is the 117, to define our commercial strategy, where final prices are lower than those embedded in the plan. With regard to the second one, I will give the floor to Luca. If I'm right, you have asked if we have increased our retail price in the second half of the year or in the beginning of the next year.
Well, Luca, if you want to
Sure. Alberto, regarding the dispersion of margin, basically this is driven mainly by the reduction in sourcing cost, which basically decrease along the plan in the region of 40%. This obviously reduction is driven by the substitution of market purchases and thermal output, which accounts for around 11 terawatt hours with 10 terawatt hours of renewable productions. When it comes to the final fixed selling price to customers, we are actually envisaging a trend downwards for about 10%. The repricing that was done last year and this year is already embedded in this scenario, whereby starting from next year, actually final fixed price to customers is going down by 10%.
Regarding the third questions, the short generation position and let me say the optionality to potentially increase our trend in renewables addition. Already with this plan, we have increased, let's say the overall amount. We have a trend of around 1.1.5, 1.8 gigawatts addition in the next three years. You know, beyond that, obviously we are targeting a 2 gigawatts addition. Now, you need to understand that obviously, this period has been heavily affected by regulatory measures, regulatory interventions. The optionality for us is always there. I think the balance sheet support this optionality, and we could be in a position to increase, obviously, when the situations normalize.
Okay. Thank you, Alberto. Next questions comes from Jose Ruiz from Barclays.
Yeah, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I just have two. The first one is on the assumption of the energy tax, the windfall profit tax, are you taking the old assumptions, which is the total revenues in Spain, or the new assumptions, which are basically just excluding regulated businesses and renewables? The second question, basically, you're pretty sure about cutting thermal production next year, or that's what I understand, and please correct me if I understood it incorrectly. What is driving that? What are you expecting in 2023 in terms of this replacement to happen? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Jose. With regard to our assumption on the windfall tax, I should say that our business plan consider this impact of this extraordinary levy in accordance with the last included amendments, that is without the regulated businesses. We have a draft only. This draft is under discussion in the parliament. It is clear that at least today excluded regulated revenues and also results from foreign subsidies. What we have done, what we have booked in our plan is at the EBITDA level in 2023 and 2024, an impact, and also in the net ordinary income, an impact of around 300 million EUR per year. That is all what we have.
With regard to the second question, well, I think it is clear. Luca, could you?
Yes. The assumption, as we mentioned before, from marginal technology is passed on to the supply business at EUR 65 megawatt hour along the business plan. When it comes to combined source of thermal generation production, obviously we will see a decrease, because also the increase that we've seen this year was driven by the cap on gas for the Iberian exception that is in place up until May 2023. From there onwards, the volumes, extraordinary volumes that we see in 2022 should become lower when it come basically to combined cycles. That's what we have in terms of assumption for the plan.
Okay. Next question is coming from Jorge Guimarães from J.P. Morgan.
Good morning, everyone. I have three questions, if I may. Firstly, if you can elaborate on the relation between the evolution of the average selling price and the evolution of supply margins. I understand that even 10% below 2025 versus 2022 still represents a higher price than 2021. How this interacts with the supply margin, which seems to be above 10 EUR megawatt hour by 2025. Just another one on the tax. Some of your competitors are including it in 2022, and you are putting it in 2023, 2024. Why the difference in 2022? Thank you very much.
Okay. Thank you, Jorge. With regard to the second question, well, our understanding now, and having the opinion of the different experts, is that this tax will be, will be based on the revenues, not regulated revenues, of the year 2022, that will be applied or will be taken into account or accountablized in the year 2023. And the same, the 2023 and 2024. That is the reason why once we have been aware of this expert opinion, we have decided just to move from 2022 - 2023. And this is one of the reasons why we have this step down in the results in 2022 and 2023.
Instead of reducing the 2022 extraordinary result that we have, we are reducing the results in the year 2023. Let me say if you allow me just to say that, we are advancing results in the year 2022.
Regarding the first questions on the evolution of the selling price and supply margin, Jorge, what I can comment there is that, yes, we have a reduction of 10% along the business plan. Clearly, the starting point in 2023 is higher than 2021. The reduction is 10%. We land in a region of just over 100 EUR megawatt hour for fixed price final selling price to customers. In terms of supply margins, what I can comment that obviously we are having a depressed 2022 given the higher sourcing cost as explained before. Obviously this will expand along the plan, quite materially, driven by the lower sources cost around the plan.
Now we have Javier Garrido from JP Morgan. Please, Javier, go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thank you, Mar. I have a few questions. On the first question is if you could clarify, explain a bit what's the meaning of crystallizing value in the gas business, specifically what you are specifically planning to do there, and how it will impact your business once you have crystallized that value. The second question is whether you can elaborate a bit more on what are your expectations for the islands business, the non-mainland business, the contribution to profits of that business, and what is embedded into your targets. The third question is, unfortunately you are not showing any longer what is your assumption for the integrated margin through the period.
It used to be EUR 39 per megawatt hour for 2024 in the previous plan. Could you let us know, or at least give us some indication of what are you expecting now for 2025? I mean, it's been extremely useful that you provided the bridge between 2022 and 2025, but I am really puzzled about the evolution in 2023 and 2024 because you mention biggest drivers, the increase in renewable production and the decline, the cut in the price to the final customer. If I look at your appendix, the increase in renewable production in 2023 is meant to be significantly higher than in 2024. The reduction in thermal production in 2024 is bigger than in 2023.
In 2023, the price decline has not started. What I wonder is how you can give us some bridge or some indication of how you can grow your EBITDA by around EUR 500 million in 2024, given all these inputs. Thank you.
Okay. Javier, thank you very much for your question. Let me try just to clarify what does this mean, crystallizing value. It's a very good question, but let me try to explain the rationale of this operation, and then I will try just to clarify this. First of all, well, as you perfectly know, yesterday Enel announced the sale of the gas portfolio. They said that it is a transaction in which we are currently working on. We don't have the definitive vision of this operation. The rationale is very clear for me.
Just to reduce the risk profile, and you know that the risk is strongly affected by the gas volatility, which lead to unpredictable prices and also customer behavior that we are seeing now. The second reason, strategic reason is just to accelerate our decarbonization, bringing forward the goal of net zero emission. The last one, but not least, let me say, to take advantage of the high gas prices scenario that we have today. We have just carried out the first assessment of this transaction, which envisages around 50% of our integrated portfolio clients and sourcing contract. Let me say, it is expected to be closed by the end of 2023.
With all these introduction, let me say, and perhaps I am not going to clarify anything, but as of today, we have considered a neutral impact along the plan, taking into account all the effect the perimeter that at the end would be the one that we are going to use, and all the effects associated to these divestment. On top of all the things, we are going to reduce our risks, and we are going to accelerate our decarbonization, and we will take advantage of the high prices gas scenario that we have today. With regard to the non-mainland business, Luca?
Yeah. Yes, Pepe. On the second one, contribution at EBITDA level along the plan is around EUR 200 million at EBITDA level of the non-mainland business, Javier. When it comes to the third questions, which is, let's say the representation of our old integrated power free margin, obviously we will land 2022 in the, I would say low 40s in terms of integrated margins, and expansion along the business plan, in 2025, we should land in the mid-50s. That's according to our old way of reporting integrated free power margin. When it comes to the fourth questions, which is the bridge of EBITDA, and then we'll comment also on below EBITDA between 2022 and 2023. The drop at EBITDA level is EUR 900 million, as you pointed out.
Here, we have an impact of EUR 700 million negative in gross margin and EUR 150 million negative in terms of fixed cost. With gross margin, we have an improvement in renewables for about EUR 400 million, an improvement on the client side, which is retail and Enel X for about EUR 700 million, an improvement in distribution, which is driven by the non-recurring of obviously of 2022 for EUR 200 million, and the margin decrease in the whole generation and other business for about basically EUR 2 billion, plus obviously the impact of the tax that we were discussing before for EUR 300 million, which is both at EBITDA and net income level. I think the rationale around networks is pretty easy to understand.
When it comes to renewables, the EUR 400 million basically increase is driven by obviously better hydro conditions vis-a-vis a very dry year, and obviously the expansion in terms of generation from solar and wind capacity, which is expected to be 2.5 terawatt-hours. That should contribute EUR 350 million in terms of margins, and, you know, some increase in fixed cost for about EUR 40 million. When it comes to retail, the increase of EUR 700 million is driven by EUR 500 million in straight retail, and this is mainly thanks to lower sourcing cost in the region of 10% vis-a-vis 2022, and high underlying prices. As I said, there was a slight increase in 2023 for about EUR 100 million.
Additionally, EUR 200 million positive in, you know, gas retail, which is reverting extraordinarily negative, which affected 2022. I think here the most difficult part for you to reconcile was the generation and others, which goes down by EUR 2 billion in terms of gross margin. Obviously, we have the absence of the social bonus sentence that we booked in 2022. The impact of extraordinary tax, as I mentioned before, EUR 400 million. We have EUR 200 million less in nuclear margin to the increase in variable cost. Obviously, taxations basically are being assumed to be in place again starting from next year. We have a negative impact of about EUR 500 million in gas wholesale vis-a-vis obviously the exceptional performance that we've seen in 2022.
Again, also in trading by EUR 400 million negative, of which about EUR 300 million is the positive mark-to-market that we have in power. When it comes to the normalization of thermal margins, obviously volumes are going down by 4 terawatt-hours vis-a-vis exceptional 11 terawatt-hours 2022, and this will impact in the region of EUR 300 million. Then you might remind that also we have a contribution of the short position in 2022 that will not be there in 2023. Those are basically the lines to reconcile the negative impact of about EUR 900 million of EBITDA decrease from 2022 - 2023.
Below EBITDA, what I can comment, obviously, besides the tax that impacts fully also below EBITDA, there is an increase in terms of D&A of, in the region of, just over EUR 100 million and an increase in financial cost, again, in around EUR 100 million. Those are the basically the reconciliation regarding your question.
Okay. Thank you, Javier. We'll move to the next question that comes from Manuel Palomo from Exane BNP.
Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I think that I will insist on this latest point by Javier on integrated margin. I was looking at past presentation, you were talking about EUR 75 integrated margin... Sorry, EUR 75. It was the unit of revenue and EUR 39 megawatt-hour integrated margin for 2022. Now you're telling us that you're expecting instead of EUR 75 unitary revenue, EUR 100. It means that integrated margin that you say in the mid-50s could be apparently even higher.
Given the situation, the current situation and latest in the interventionism by the different governments, do you think that this is sustainable and that governments will allow utilities to make such huge unitary margin? That is the first thing. Second thing, even if there's no market intervention, don't you think that this is, this could have a call effect on other players, willing to well, to come to the market and increase competition, hence maybe reducing margins? That would be my first question.
Second question is just a question on yesterday's renewable auction and whether you could make any comment on that outcome that tells that it was a failure and that only 50 megawatts out of 3.3 gigawatts were awarded. Thank you.
Okay, Manuel, thank you. Thank you very much. I will leave Luca just to answer the first one. With regard to the second one, to the renewable auctions, in general, given our talking about Endesa, given our short position in generation, we prefer to develop and dedicate that our future renewable generation to reduce our short position in generation. That is what has said for us. That is the reason why we are not going to these auctions. Why so low? Well, I don't know. It could be just the starting point of the price, 40, if I'm right, 45.
In our case, again, given our short position in generation, we prefer to develop this to cover our short position.
On the first question on sustainability of the expansion of our supply margin, Manuel, to be honest, I think we took a very cautious approach in respecting, you know, current regulation, when it comes to the pass-through of our infra-marginal generation to supply at 65 along the business plan, which I think is a very conservative assumption. As Pepe pointed out, the final fixed selling price to customers, again, is very well below what is the pool price assumption within the business plan. Therefore, yes, there is an expansion because it's driven by lower sourcing cost.
If the question is, this will be allowed by, you know, regulators and governments, basically, let me remind you that the current regulation in Spain is probably one of the most restrictive across Europe, where, obviously, the cap on infra-marginal technologies at European level is almost 3 x what we have in Spain. We will see. I think we took a fairly conservative assumption on a regulatory standpoint with this business plan, and then we will see the evolution of both the macro context as well as regulation, both at European as well as Spanish government level.
Next question comes from Rob Pulleyn from Morgan Stanley.
Hi. Yes. Good morning. Thanks for all the color so far. Can I revisit the question of the gas disposal? Could you clarify the impact of the on EBITDA in the plan? I didn't really understand when you said it's a neutral impact. Maybe if it's easier, just talk to what the underlying 2025 EBITDA would be without the disposal versus the headline numbers you gave. That'll be great. The second one, if you don't mind, correct me if I'm wrong, I heard that the 2023 in the bridge, which I must admit went a little bit faster us, you assume CCGT contribution to normalize. Is that correct? If so, why do you assume that for 2023?
At first glance, that appears very conservative given the likely environment, but maybe we missed something there. The third one, maybe this is more of an observation than a question, but interesting to get your thoughts. On the assumptions, as everyone agonizes about what commodity to use for 2025, would you agree that it's reasonable to assume that if commodity prices remain high as per the forward curve until 2025, then the government intervention on infra-margin caps, windfall taxes and everything else will also persist until 2025? Thank you very much for your thoughts.
Thank you, Rob Pulleyn. Let me try to give my opinion about the commodity prices remaining high along the period. Well, let me say, who knows? As Luca have said, the Government of Spain has given us clear signal that they will try or they would will try as to mitigate these prices. Having said that, what we have today in Spain is a cap of EUR 667 per megawatt hour. Also, with the so-called cap in the gas price for the combined cycle to offer in the wholesale market, we have something that evolved from 40 to, if I'm right, 70, or something like that.
When you go to the European Union, what we are talking about is 180 instead of 67, more than EUR 200 per megawatt hour cap in gas. The different is that, at least in my opinion, the European Union tried to put some cap, but taking care about not distort the market. In the other sense, the Spanish government put the cap trying to mitigate the impact on the customers, looking for, I'm sure, a reasonable profitability of the company. In my opinion, nothing more will happen if these commodity prices remain higher than the ones that we have in our business plan.
We don't have, risks, in my opinion, in this, in this area. Even more could be, good news in the future.
Thanks, Pepe. Regarding the first questions of the disposal of partial of our integrated gas portfolio, the loss in terms of EBITDA contribution is starting in 2024, is about just EUR 100 million. The landing point in terms of what we have in the plan of gas contribution is EUR 200 million in 2025. The impact is minor, as I said, and this is already embedded in the business plan. That's why Pepe commented that we have basically a neutral impact around this disposal. When it comes to the second question, why we are assuming such lower combined cycle contribution for 2023, this is mainly driven by the fact that the current cap on gas is in place up until May, and that's the regulation that is currently in place.
If you remember when this was approved, that was the agreement with the European Union, we do not expect this to be extended. Although, let me say, some of, you know, market participants expect, you know, potential extension. According to the current regulation, that will end in May 2023, which means the combined cycle contribution, at least in our numbers, will contribute 4 terawatt hours less already in 2023. Obviously, if this is not the case, we will have some kind of upside in 2023.
We have now Jorge Alonso from Société Générale .
Hi. Good morning. I have still a couple of questions, please. The first one is just to confirm that in your estimates, you are considering that the clawbacks are no longer applied beyond 2023, and hence, the supply margins defined by the regulator are no longer as well applied in your estimates. Second one is trying to simplify things a little bit just to have your clarification. In 2025, EUR 1.6 billion that will come from the supply side. If we take out the sales in the islands and the regulated customers fully, that could take out, let's assume between EUR 100 million-EUR 200 million.
1.4 would come from selling 50 terawatt-hours to the free market. That would give somehow an EBITDA margin per kilowatt hour of close to EUR 30 per hour, which is in my view an expansion, material expansion from the levels we have today or in the past. Just to be sure that this is the correct way to understand things. On the last one is around the CapEx in renewables. I'm seeing that you keep EUR 1.1 million per megawatt on wind and EUR 0.7 on solar.
if you see, I mean, risk on those, looking at what about the market is evolving, especially maybe in solar, that could be maybe a little bit lower as information coming from other players. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Jorge. We'll try best to answer the first one with regard to the clawback. Let me say, during the three years of the business plan, that is 2023 to 2025, our only from marginal output that is hydro, nuclear, and the rest of renewable, sorry, is transferred to retail at EUR 65 per kWh, while our underlying price is expected to decrease 10%, as we have said in the business plan. In relation with regard to your question to our regulatory assumption, this Royal Decree-Law 17, the one of this clawback has been, as you know, extended until December the 31st of 2023. Our business plan in 2023 assumes that final price, selling price, is aligned with this measure.
That is, we take into account this clawback. For the year 2024 and 2023, we continue deploying our commercial strategy, selling, let me say, at a reasonable price, well, below the pool price assumption included. We don't expect any clawback or any impact of a potential extension of a clawback.
Thank you, Pepe. Regarding the second question, Jorge. I mean, the expansion in terms of supply margin is there, as I commented before. I think your calculation are more or less okay. I mean, you need to take into account that the decrease in sourcing cost is 40%. We decrease sourcing cost by around EUR 29, almost EUR 30 megawatt-hour. That is where, you know, the expansion is driven from, and again, is the substitution of basically thermal and acquisition on the spot of the energy with basically renewable sources that allow us to cover 95% of our fixed price sales by 2025.
Regarding the third CapEx per megawatt, EUR 0.7 in solar and EUR 1.1 in wind, assuming the plan, this already foresee an increase vis-à-vis the old plan of about 50% in solar and around 5% in wind. Let me say that, you know, with the current scenario, we foresee this number as conservative. We do not expect, let me say, further increases. I think it's a very sound type of assumption when it comes to the CapEx deployment for our renewable additions.
Okay. This was the last question from the call. We will answer some questions that we have received from the web. In particular, we have Fernando Lafuente from Alantra. Comes with three question. The first one is in relation to the reason why giving a range in terms of EBITDA. I mean, I guess that is referring in particular to 2022, but it's a range for the whole period of the plan. The second one is which is the rationale of letting the dividend fall in 2023, and if we have considered any alternative to compensate the fall. The third one is if the plan. He's asking about the possibility of the plan, including any acquisitions, and if the answer is yes, in which business? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, thank you, Fernando. Let me try to explain the rationale or irrational reduction of the dividend in the year 2023. Well, it is clear for me that there are two main regulatory effects. One of them is the windfall profit taxation that accounts for something around of EUR 300 million. Also, you should take into account the clawback. The clawback, we are trying just to maintain our prices below this threshold, and that is for sure something that reduce our margins in the year 2023. Let me say, well, that is, we try as always, if you know us, we try to be very transparent and also conservative, in my opinion.
We prefer to be transparent and conservative, if it is possible, just to give you better news in the future. I think that we are living in an uncertain and turbulent days and that will continue, at least uncertainty during the year 2023 and 2024. We prefer to be optimistic, but to be conservative in our numbers and in our commitments to the market.
Regarding the first question, ranges, wide ranges, now for EBITDA, also for 2022. I mean, the market volatility that we're seeing, you know, throughout this period has been quite, I would say, elevated. Therefore, you know, we have certain items, which moves quite heavily, even, you know, in recent times. Therefore, that's why basically those are given along the plan. When it comes to 2022, it's not only volatility. Obviously, we have a much better vision for, you know, what will happen between now and year-end. But also there are some regulatory settlements, fast settlement that might come in and therefore, that's why we're giving basically ranges.
Let me just add a comment in terms of the dividend parts. Obviously we don't like to give, you know, ups and downs in dividend distribution to shareholders, let me say that 2023 and 2024 are heavily impacted by the regular environment. These are our factors which are, let's say, out of our control, and therefore that's why you see basically such a trend. On the third questions, the plan do not foresee any acquisition.
Okay. Many thanks. We have no more questions, just thank you once more time to attend this capital market day. Just remind you that the investor relation team is available as always to help you in case y ou need it. Thank you, have a nice day.