ENCE Energía y Celulosa, S.A. (BME:ENC)
Spain flag Spain · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
2.448
+0.104 (4.44%)
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q2 2024

Jul 31, 2024

Operator

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ignacio Colmenares, Executive Chairman, and Alfredo Avello, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining ENCE's Second Quarter 2024 results conference call. Our CFO, Alfredo Avello, and our Head of IR, Alberto Valdés, are also connected to this call. After the presentation, we will be pleased to answer any questions you may have. I would like to start with the main highlights of the quarter on slide 6. The pulp price recovery continued during the second quarter, boosted by strong pulp demand growth, low pulp inventories, and pulp supply constraints. Our average net pulp price improved by EUR 127 per ton, compared to the previous quarter, and by EUR 150 per ton, compared to the same quarter of last year. Up to an average net price of EUR 728 per ton, boosted by strong pulp demand and supply constraints.

At the same time, we were able to reduce our cash cost by EUR 13 per ton, compared to the previous quarter, and by EUR 60 per ton, compared to the same quarter of last year, down to EUR 474 per ton, largely due to lower raw material and logistics costs. Both levers contributed to lift our pulp operating margin by EUR 140 per ton, compared to the previous quarter, and by EUR 210 per ton, compared to the same quarter of last year, up to EUR 254 per ton in the second quarter. We expect to keep a strong operating margin in the third quarter, as I will show you later. Continuing with slide 7. As we anticipated, the new methodology for quarterly updating the cash remuneration of biomass plant was published in June.

According to this new methodology, we should sell and cash our energy output at an average regulated price of 115 EUR per MWh. As a result, the former regulatory has been eliminated. Sorry, the former regulatory collar has been eliminated. Our business cash flow generation is now aligned with EBITDA, and our cash generation profile has improved. This year, the use of this new methodology will improve our initial cash flow forecast by over EUR 60 million. Let's move on to slide 9, which summarizes our outlook for the pulp business in the coming quarter. The European PIX price is flattening out at high levels. We only expect a small fall of the PIX price on the third quarter. Take note that our peak sales represent over 60% of the total.

The price of these contracts are based on the PIX price of one or two months ago. That is why we see a high price for a large amount of our sales during the quarter, despite some falls in the spot markets. We see a strong average price for the third quarter. At the same time, our cash cost is also expected to stabilize during the third quarter, despite the Pontevedra biomill shutdown scheduled for September. Both levers will contribute to maintaining a strong operating margin and cash flow generation in the pulp business during the third quarter. On the other hand, our operating costs in the biomass business should continue their downward trend in the coming quarters, contributing to an improved EBITDA and cash flow generation.

As you can see on the following slide, number 10, our shareholder remuneration policy is based on cash generation and on our prudent leverage limits per business. We have approved a first interim dividend against 2024 results amounting to EUR 26 million, equivalent to 0.107 EUR per share, payable at the 7th of August. The first interim dividend payment implies 3.4% yield over yesterday's closing price. According to our shareholder remuneration policy, a second interim dividend will be decided by the end of October. I now invite Alfredo to elaborate further on our financial results.

Alfredo Avello
CFO, ENCE

Thank you, Ignacio. Let's continue with the financial performance of our pulp business in slide number 12. The pulp business EBITDA was over seven times that of the second quarter last year, reaching up to EUR 61 million. When comparing to the same period last year, our 150 EUR per ton improvement in average sale prices, together with a 60 EUR per ton reduction in cash costs, increased our operating margin up to 254 EUR per ton in the quarter. Regarding the 60 EUR per ton cash cost reduction, almost 50% is explained by operating improvements in our Pontevedra biomill, and the rest by lower wood, chemicals, and logistic costs. Looking at our first quarter 2024, and as advanced in our previous call, the cash cost also improved by 13 EUR per ton.

In this case, mainly due to lower chemicals, logistics, and fixed costs, among others. As our chairman has already pointed out, the expected stabilization of real sale prices during the third quarter, together with our cash cost level, should result in another quarter of solid operating margins and cash flow generation. Turning now to slide 13, the renewable business EBITDA reached almost EUR 5 million in the second quarter, which is 10% above the same period last year. The 24% year-on-year improvement in the energy output, together with a 20% year-on-year reduction in the biomass operating costs, more than offset the lower revenues per megawatt hour derived from the elimination of the regulatory collar under the new renewable regulation. Last renewable regulatory changes increased the average sale price of our biomass plants up to approximately 115 EUR per megawatt hour.

This price will be passing through two components: a regulatory pool price, composed by a combination of forward, yearly, quarterly, and monthly pool prices, and an RO for the difference up to the said 115 EUR per MWh price. The calculation of the remuneration is updated quarterly and liquidated on a monthly basis, thus aligning our cash flow generation with our EBITDA and improving our cash flow generation. This new regulation is applicable as from first of January 2024. The regulatory pool generated after the 31st December 2023, will continue to be cashed in, in the long term within the RI, as with the previous regulation. As our chairman has previously stated, we see an improvement in the renewable business EBITDA and cash flow generation in the coming quarters, also due to the reduction of our biomass operating costs.

Let's continue to slide 14 with the solid performance of our consolidated results, based on a higher pulp and energy sales, and boosted by the improvement in pulp prices and the reduction of our operating costs. Consolidated EBITDA grew by EUR 54 million compared to the same quarter last year, reaching up to EUR 66 million, and the net income rose by EUR 40 million year on year, up to EUR 23 million. Turning now to slide 15. At the group level, free cash flow was positive by EUR 24 million in the second quarter, after including a EUR 12 million working capital outflow, driven by higher pulp prices and EUR 10 million growth and sustainability CapEx.

The said EUR 12 million working capital increase is explained by a EUR 27 million working capital outflow in the pulp business, mainly due to the increase in pulp prices, partially offset by a working capital inflow amounting up to EUR 15 million in the renewable business. This last figure includes the normal factoring of part of the RO of our biomass plants, accrued from January to June 2024, under the new methodology for an amount of EUR 35 million, which will be completely paid by the regulator in the third quarter. Continuing in the slide 16, on a consolidated level, net debt was reduced by EUR 44 million during the second quarter, down to EUR 279 million, with a solid cash balance of EUR 281 million.

On top of the free cash flow generated in the quarter, net debt reduction in the quarter also includes the bridge loan provided to Magnon Green Energy by its shareholders during the second quarter, which is expected to be redeemed during the coming quarters, starting this month of July. Please note that the way we manage Magnon, is maximizing cash distribution where possible, while at the same time temporarily supporting the company, if needed, under non-ordinary circumstances. Actually, 2021 and 2022 were years of very strong cash flow in the renewable business due to the high pool prices, so we distributed up to EUR 66 million to the shareholders, including the last one last year. One of these non-ordinary circumstances occurred during the first semester of 2024, when two important events were co-leading.

The interim period between the end of the previous regulation and the new one, which deferred the collection of EUR 40 million coming from the RO, accrued during the first semester, which is not going to be collected until the end of the third quarter. The refinancing process of Magnon's EUR 111 million remaining corporate loan, which could not be launched until the new regulation was published back in June. Until both events happened, the shareholders decided that the appropriate way to temporarily finance the company during this period was through shareholder loans at full market conditions, to be repaid in the following quarters.

Well, I'm very glad to announce that yesterday, July 30, we closed and disbursed a EUR 170 million, 7.5-year term loan facility, plus a EUR 20 million RCF among 14 banks and institutional investors, extending its financial maturity until January 2032. The new facility qualifies as green financing, and it has non-recourse to the parent company of the renewable business. The use of these proceeds are the refinancing of the previous facility, as well as the repayment of shareholder loans, among other CapEx and corporate purposes. Actually, EUR 25 million are being distributed today to minority shareholders as part of the above-mentioned shareholder bridge loan amortization and interest payments. This, again, evidences the confidence and support of the financial community in the operation and development of our biomass energy business.

Also, the solid cash flow generation expected during the second half of the year should allow us to end the year with a lower net debt figure, even after the planned growth CapEx and dividend payments. Let's turn now to slide 17. I would like to conclude my section emphasizing once again, Ence's continued and exceptional sustainability performance. We are leader in sustainable forestry, circular economy, social commitment, gender equality, and corporate governance. Our best practices have been recognized by independent ESG agencies and indexes. In its latest study, Sustainalytics has confirmed Ence for the fourth consecutive year as the most sustainable player in the global pulp market. We have also been awarded the EcoVadis Platinum Medal, the highest rating awarded by this platform, and we remain members of the prestigious FTSE4Good Index since 2021, and the IBEX ESG and IBEX Gender Equality Indexes.

Let me now give the floor back to our Chairman and CEO to update you on our growth and diversification projects.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Thank you, Alfredo. Moving now to slide 19, let me update you on our growth and diversification initiatives in the pulp business. Firstly, we continue to diversify our production towards higher value-added pulp products. Ence Advanced Pulp sales continue to gain market share. They accounted for 28% of total pulp sales in the second quarter. Remember, we aim to reach 50% by 2028. Our Ence Advanced Pulp products deliver higher margins, as they are better adapted to replace softwood pulp, which is more expensive. These products deliver an extra margin of 35 EUR per ton in the second quarter and imply a 10 EUR per ton improvement in an average sales price. Secondly, our project to diversify up to 125,000 tons of our production into fluff pulp is on track.

This is an innovative project that has generated a lot of interest among our clients in Europe, who are currently importing fluff pulp from North America, based on softwood. Our fluff pulp will be based on eucalyptus. It will be very competitive, and will deliver much higher margins than our standard pulp. The project has all the permits required. We have already ordered the equipment and started the civil works. The commissioning is scheduled for the end of 2025. We estimate a total CapEx of EUR 30 million between 2024 and 2025, and we expect to achieve a return on capital employed above 15%. Thirdly, and continuing in slide 20, we have developed a portfolio of renewable packaging solutions capable of replacing plastic food trays. This project has a huge growth potential and very attractive returns.

We are currently in the technical homologation and process with a number of clients in Spain. We are finalizing the engineering and permitting to build a plant with an initial production capacity of 40 million units, with the possibility of scaling it up in the future. We expect to take a final investment decision before year-end. The initial investment will amount to EUR 12 million, and the expected return on capital employed is well over 15%. Fourthly, we are analyzing the engineering of our Pontevedra Avanza project, which will place Pontevedra's efficiency and flexibility at the forefront of the industry in Europe. This project should allow us to reduce Pontevedra's cash cost by EUR 50 per ton, to improve its flexibility by using different species of eucalyptus, and to continue diversifying to Ence Advanced pulp products.

We expect to take a final investment decision at the beginning of 2025. The estimated CapEx in this project will amount to EUR 120 million during the next 5 years, with a required return on capital employed of over 12%. This is a diversification and efficiency project, not a project increasing capacity. Finally, we continue to make progress with the engineering and permitting of the As Pontes project for the production of bleached, recycled pulp for paper, textiles, and bioproducts. It will be a fully circular plant based on the recovery of paper, board, and textile fibers. It will be 100% decarbonized, with no waste generation and minimal water consumption. It also avoids a new mill invading a natural space, since the project will be located on industrial land occupied previously by a thermal coal plant.

For all these reasons, the project has already completed the public information process without any meaningful social opposition. This project is very well positioned to receive grants from the European Decarbonization Funds. We expect to take a final investment decision next year. Note that none of the investments I have described will require more wood, which we believe is an increasingly limited resource. The Iberian pulp industry is already importing over 2 million tons of wood annually from Latin America. The execution of these investments will be adapted and aligned to our cash flow generation throughout the pulp cycle and to our leverage and dividend policies. Remember that our aim is to maintain a prudent leverage and offer an attractive remuneration for shareholders while investing for profitable growth in the future.

Turning now to slide number 21, let me update you on our growth and diversification projects in renewables, where we want to double the EBITDA over the next five years. Firstly, through our subsidiary, Ence Biogas, we aim to produce 1 terawatt hour of biomethane by 2030. Our unique business model is based on the recycling of local agricultural and livestock biogas industries, as well as producing a high-quality organic fertilizer and biogenic CO2. Ence Biogas is already working on a portfolio of 42 biomethane projects for development. Twenty-eight of these projects already have their land secured and their feasibility studies completed, of which 13 are in their engineering and permitting phase. We expect six of them to be ready to build next year. We plan to build these plants with EPC contracts using non-recourse project financing backed by long-term PPAs.

The initially estimated CapEx is 400,000 EUR per gigawatt hour. The targeted return on the capital employed is over 12%. Additionally, some of these products will be sold at ready-to-build status to help finance the growth of this business. Nobody in Spain has a deep understanding in biomass sourcing that we have. Our know-how and expertise in this field constitutes a unique competitive advantage. Continuing with slide number 22. Biomass thermal energy is not only carbon neutral, but may also be more price stable and more competitive than fossil thermal energy. Through our subsidiary, Magnon Servicios Energéticos, we signed our first service contract last year with a major industrial company in the food and beverage sector in Spain. We are already supplying renewable thermal energy to this company.

We are now working on 14 other projects with important industrial companies in the food and beverage and chemical industries in Spain to provide them with renewable thermal energy. Our customers appreciate our strong position in the biomass market and our experience in providing integrated solutions from biomass sourcing to plant design and operations. We are in advanced negotiations in 8 of these projects, and in 3 of them, we are negotiating in exclusivity. These 3 projects are already in the engineering and permitting phase. We expect to be ready to start building by next year. As in the biomethane business, we plan to build these biomass thermal plants with EPC contracts and using non-recourse project financing, but by long-term PPAs. The estimated CapEx is around EUR 100,000 per GWh, with an estimated production of between 60GWh-200 GWh per plant.

The targeted return on capital employed is over 11%. We have already presented five projects for European next generation funds. One of them has already been awarded a EUR 4 million grant, and we expect the remaining four projects to be successful, too. Ence Renovables growth is based on our unique experience of biomass sourcing. We are transforming today this biomass into electricity and thermal energy, soon also into biomethane, and beyond 2019, into renewable fuels. Slide 23. Let me now finish with some closing remarks before we move to the Q&A session. We expect to maintain a strong operating margin and cash flow generation in the pulp business during the third quarter. The new regulation for biomass plants improves our cash flow generation profile. The reduction of biomass operating costs will boost our renewable business, EBITDA, and our cash flow generation.

A first interim dividend of EUR 26 million will be paid on the seventh of August, and the second interim dividend will be decided by the end of October. I believe we are well positioned to grow and diversify our business, while maintaining a prudent leverage and an attractive shareholder remuneration. The accomplishment of our goals will allow us to significantly boost our recurring EBITDA in the pulp business, and more than double the recurring EBITDA in the renewable business over the next 5 years. Thank you for your attention. We will be pleased now to hear any questions you may have.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touchtone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Questions will be taken in the order received. Should you wish to cancel your request, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Please note that you may ask as many questions as you like, but kindly ask one question at a time. Your first question is from Enrique Parrondo, from JB Capital. Please ask your question.

Enrique Parrondo
Associate of Equity Research, JB Capital

Yes. Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have a couple of them, but I will state three and jump back to the queue. First one would be related to sales volumes and cash costs for the pulp business. Maybe if you could share your expectations for these two for the remainder of the year. Thank you.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Sorry, could you repeat it? Because I haven't listened, because the problem we had here.

Enrique Parrondo
Associate of Equity Research, JB Capital

Yes. So the first one is related to the sales volumes and cash costs for the pulp business. If you could share your expectations for these two for the remainder of the year, please. Thank you.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Thank you very much, Enrique. We expect to produce over 1 million tons in 2024. We expect cash costs to stabilize around EUR 475, maybe between EUR 475 to EUR 480 maximum during the second half of the year, despite Pontevedra's annual maintenance during third quarter 2024. A higher energy contribution should mitigate the slight increase in wood costs.

Enrique Parrondo
Associate of Equity Research, JB Capital

Great, thank you. So second one on energy output. Can we expect some sequential increase versus second quarter levels, due to the new regulation? So I'm basically assuming that the pickup in volume, sales volumes in the energy business, is mainly related to the month of June, and wanted to understand if there's any upside to, third quarter and fourth quarter output volumes versus what we have seen in this, second quarter. Thank you.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Thank you very much, Enrique. Our production run rate in 2024 should be over 300 GWh per quarter, which means more or less 1.2 TWh annually. We expect volumes to be slightly the same on the third and fourth quarters than they were on the second quarter, not on the first quarter. We see, as you can see on the forward market, high prices of energy, but well, we are a regulated company, then we are selling at 115 EUR/MWh. We had, during this year, we had till now, 2 plants shut down because of difficulties in sourcing at a good price, all the biomass we need for all the fleet.

Now, one of these plants has already restarted, and, the most probably at the end of the year, the second one will restart as well. Then, we see as a conclusion, same volumes or slightly higher volumes than in the second quarter for both third and fourth quarter, and starting to better volumes at the end of fourth quarter and beginning of next year. The rains of Spain are going to allow a very good, collection and harvest of olive oil, and therefore, these raw material we are using, called orujillo, which has been very scarce in the last two years because of the drought, is going to be very abundant, and it will allow us to work 100% in the short future.

Enrique Parrondo
Associate of Equity Research, JB Capital

Perfect. So and the final one, also related to the energy business. If you could maybe give us an update on where do you currently stand on the 223 MW capacity to be rotated to Naturgy? If you could share some a timeline for this, it would be helpful. Thank you.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Yes, yes. We are now negotiating the sale to different players of 100 MW in the south of Spain. We think this deal will be probably closed before the end of the year. There is another one near Granada, slightly smaller. Well, today we see some difficulties in selling these PV plants due to two factors. The low prices of the energy at the solar hours are decreasing the price of those assets. That's the first reason. And the second reason is that we are facing some problems on the development of these PV plant near Granada. Then, today we are not sure that we will be able to have these PV solar plant ready to be in by the end of the year.

Enrique Parrondo
Associate of Equity Research, JB Capital

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, please press star one, should you wish to ask a question. Your next question is from Cole Hathorn from Jefferies. Please ask your question.

Cole Hathorn
Senior Vice President of Equity Research, Jefferies

Good afternoon, thanks for taking the question. I'd, I'd like to focus on, on pulp and how you see the business developing over the next, let's say, two to five years. And where I'm going with this is I want to understand if your, on average, your margin per ton is gonna be better through the cycle. And I'd like to focus on two items. Firstly, on the, the Ence Advanced pulp. You talk about getting from 28% to kind of 50%, kind of more, more specialized pulp volumes. What will help get to that 50% number? Will, will you benefit if the premium of softwood pulp is a lot higher versus hardwood?

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Yeah, it is absolutely what you said. Then, those products we have developed are substituting in our European customers' softwoods. What we are agreeing with our customers is to share the difference, the price difference between the hardwood and the softwoods. And it has two very important effects. As I mentioned before, on this second quarter, where we sell 28% of our volume, Ence Advanced products. We made with these products 35 EUR per ton of higher margin than the other products. But what is even more important, when the market is depressed, these products are sold at 50-60 EUR per ton higher price than the volumes you are forced to sell on the spot market, which is always a very low price at the market.

Then, if you take as a basis what we have done on the second quarter, those products, they have improved the average price of our sales by 10 EUR per ton. If you annualize that, that's 10 million EUR per ton. If today we are 28% and we aim to go to 50%, well, we have a value of 20 million per ton, and the gap we are able today to be passed. And we think this gap will be larger because today, on this 28% of volume sold in Ence Advanced products, one-third is still at normal prices because we are on the process of homologation. As a conclusion, we have a potential value of around EUR 25 million per year. And on top of that, we have the fluff project, the fluff project.

We are going to be on the market early 2026. And, well, you know, the gap between fluff and normal BHKP pulp, and that's where we are going. Our philosophy for the next 5-7 years is to invest and to work in increasing the percentage of Ence Advanced products, work in homologating this project, those products, and having a good marketing of them to invest those EUR 40 million in the fluff project. And I'm pretty sure that after 2029, we will continue investing in fluff because it's a product with high margins today, marketed worldwide from softwood, with the exception of Suzano. And we are pretty sure that being able to sell this project, this product with eucalyptus pulp is going to be a fantastic business. Then we don't want to grow in terms of volume.

We, as I say, always, wood is going to be scarce, but we want to diversify into higher margin products. That's our strategy.

Cole Hathorn
Senior Vice President of Equity Research, Jefferies

And then maybe shifting from, you know, if you're able to keep kind of higher sales price per ton in the next downturn, that's great, improves your, your, your sales mix. But on the cost side, I mean, when I look at your CapEx projects, you know, Pontevedra stands out if you're able to get 50 EUR/ton cash cost production. How do you think about that? I know the investment decision is only Q1 2025, but, you know, if I, if I look at page 20 of your report, in my mind, that, that project is probably the most appealing to me as it reduces your cash costs. You know, how do you think about that? Can you accelerate that investment at all?

You know, how can we think about that cash cost per ton reduction development over the next five years as you do annual maintenance and invest behind it?

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Well, you know that we are a quite prudent company, and for us, EUR 125 million is a lot of money. Then we have to follow the path we have decided. The path starts with having FEL 1, FEL 2, and FEL 3 engineering completed by the end of this year. In order that we are absolutely sure, 100%, that the CapEx is going to be 125, it is going to be 180, and the reduction of OpEx, and then for the reduction of cash cost is going to be EUR 50 per ton. We are going to have that finalized by the end of the year, and then on the first quarter of next year, we are going to approve to approve these investments, and we are going to start.

Due to the concession we have in Pontevedra, we cannot build new buildings, what means that we have to do all this plan following a certain rules and laws, and therefore, we cannot do that with the company producing pulp. We have to do that every year, connect what we have done on the annual shutdown, restart, connect on the next shutdown, restart and connect on the next shutdown. That's what we are going to do. By this reason, as, and because, as I said at the beginning, we are a prudent company, we have the balance sheet we have, and this market is a market where you have low prices, is a difficult market, and then to have, engage a large investment of EUR 125 million, if the market goes down, it can be risky.

Then we prefer to split these investments in four to five years and do that step by step. Regarding Pontevedra concession, I have to tell you that while Enrique Parrondo was asking his first question, that is why I asked him to repeat the question. We have been informed by our lawyers that in one of the two appeals to the city of Pontevedra... Yeah, then one of the appeals on the constitutional tribunal, well, it has been rejected by the constitutional tribunal, which is very good for us because we win on the Supreme Court, and now it seems that we are winning again on the Constitution. Thank you very much.

Cole Hathorn
Senior Vice President of Equity Research, Jefferies

Thanks, again. And then maybe just the last one is, what's your outlook for, for pulp from here? Whatever you can give, color would be helpful.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

For now, yeah. Well, you have to differentiate between three markets. You have the Asian market, mainly a Chinese market. You have the market of Middle East and North Africa, and you have the European market. The trends of each market are absolutely different. The Chinese market, a market where we are not, but as it is 40% of the global demand, the prices in China are affecting more or less what is happening in the rest of the world. It is a market, I would say, very speculative. When the Chinese customers start to buy, they overbuy, and when they decide they don't buy, they don't buy at all. Then on the last five weeks, they have not been buying, and they have been forcing a price reduction in China. We are not in China, I repeat.

And then you have the market in North Africa and Middle East, who have a trend between what is happening in Europe and what is happening in Asia. In this market, you have, we have the same problem in Turkey, which is the largest market, where they have not been buying, and they have forced a reduction of the price of a certain amount of money, which has not affected us in July, and who may affect us a bit in August, because we are not very active in this market. Our main market is Europe. We are selling in Europe, close to 90% of our sales. In Europe, we have two kinds of contracts.

We have contracts who are linked, as I was saying before, to the fixed price, where you agree annually a volume with a customer, and you agree that the price of you are going to invoice every month is going to be the fixed price. You have different possibilities. Some customers we are invoicing at the price of the fixed of this month, others, the previous month, and even a lot, two months ago. Would mean that when the prices are going up, you are not capturing all the price increase on every month. It takes time. But when the market change and the market goes down, you have a net, because you have a big volume of contracts at fixed price, and the fixed doesn't change as quick as the spot market.

And you have a lot of tons at the fixed price on the previous month, and even a lot of tons at the fixed price of two months before. And then in Europe, you have volumes who are negotiated month by month at what is called market price. And today, we know that the most probably, the market price for August is going to be negotiated between $50 and $70 below $440. If you put all that on a calculator, what you have is that the most probably, the average price of the third quarter, despite reductions on the spot market, is going to be, for us, very similar to the average price of the second quarter. And that is why I was saying we are going to have a very good third quarters in terms of results and cash flow.

Cash flow, because as the price stabilize, you stop to invest in working capital. Regarding the fourth quarter, it's too early to have a vision. Well, today it seems that the market is going to be worse on the fourth quarter than today. But you know what happens in this market? Suddenly you have two big or two large mills who have a problem, and the market change, and you are able to increase prices. Then, today it's quite difficult to have a vision about what is happening on the fourth quarter.

Cole Hathorn
Senior Vice President of Equity Research, Jefferies

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Once again, please press star one should you wish to ask a question. Your next question is from Enrique Parrondo, from JB Capital. Please ask your question.

Enrique Parrondo
Associate of Equity Research, JB Capital

Yes. Hi once again, just, an additional question from my side. So regarding DTAs, in a previous conference call earlier in the year, you highlighted that the Constitutional Court ruling should lead to a tax collection of close to EUR 20 million in your case. And we've heard from some companies that they have already cashed this in. So wondering if there's any update on your case that you could share? Thank you.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Alfredo will answer you this question, and I will read what we have now just received from the Constitutional Tribunal, while Alfredo answers you.

Alfredo Avello
CFO, ENCE

Enrique, I mean, there's no question that we will cash in the approximately EUR 20 million in the coming quarters. If we are optimistic, could be at the end of the year, but within that it will be more within the first semester, year 2025.

Enrique Parrondo
Associate of Equity Research, JB Capital

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed for the closing remarks.

Ignacio de Colmenares
Executive Chairman and CEO, ENCE

Yeah. I would like just to tell you that now I am reading what we have received from the Constitutional Tribunal. Well, what it says is that the appeals, one of the appeals presented has been rejected. Would mean that the Supreme Court decision has been confirmed. We will probably publish that on the CNMV now this afternoon. Thank you very much. Thank you very much, gentlemen, and we are in contact at the end of the holidays. Thank you.

Alfredo Avello
CFO, ENCE

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now ended.

Powered by