Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the ENCE third quarter 2022 results presentation. I now hand over to Mr. Ignacio de Colmenares, Executive Chairman, and Alfredo Avello, CFO. Gentlemen, please go ahead.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining ENCE's third quarter 2022 results conference call. Our CFO, Alfredo Avello, and our Head of IR, Alberto Valdés, are also connected. After the presentation, we will be pleased to answer any questions you may have. Let's start with slide four with the main highlight of these first nine months results. The strong free cash flow generation and de-leveraging achieved, driven by healthy pulp and energy prices. The consolidated free cash flow in the first nine months reached EUR 245 million. This allowed us to reduce net debt by EUR 174 million. We ended the period with a net cash position of EUR 72 million. Note that working capital improvement during the first nine months was mainly driven by pending payments to the electricity system amounting to EUR 70 million, which will result in cash outflows in future quarters.
As you can see in the following slide five, our new dividend policy allows us to increase shareholder remuneration in periods like the current one, characterized by a strong free cash flow generation and no leverage. A third interim dividend of EUR 0.09 per share, equivalent to EUR 22 million, will be paid on November 15th. The implied payout ratio in the first nine months will be 100% of net income amounting to EUR 67 million. The final dividend will be proposed along with the release of 2022 annual results at the beginning of next year. Turning now to slide six, I am pleased to announce that we have developed an innovative solution that will allow us to eliminate river water consumption at Pontevedra during droughts as we have experienced this year.
As announced, Pontevedra biofactory has been idled since the 20th of July due to the reduced flow of the local river. We expect that the biofactory will be able to initiate the ramp-up process around the second week of November, combining this innovative solution and minimizing the river water consumption once the necessary permits have been obtained and the maintenance works on the water collection infrastructure are finalized following its downtime period. The ramp-up process will be done progressively, reaching normal production rate during the second week of December. In this slide, you can see the estimated impact of Pontevedra downtime in terms of lower pulp production, higher cash costs, and lower EBITDA, both in the first nine months and in the full year.
I wish to stress that the impact of Pontevedra downtime during the second half of the year will be mitigated by higher pulp prices and the FX improvement. As a result, pulp business EBITDA in the second half of the year is expected to be similar to the first half, despite the temporary downtime. As you can see in the following slide seven, tight supply continues to support strong prices. Gross fixed prices in Europe reached $180 per ton during the third quarter, more than offsetting the widespread inflation in raw materials. Note that industry specialists expect pulp prices to remain well above mid-cycle levels also next year. On top of strong pulp prices, our revenues have also benefited from an 11% euro dollar exchange rate improvement compared with last year. Let's look now at our pulp sales on slide eight.
Pulp sales in the first nine months of the year amounted to 676,000 tons. This 80,000 tons less than in the same period last year due to Pontevedra's temporary downtime. For the same reason, we expect fourth quarter pulp sales to be around 175,000 tons and 850,000 tons in the full year 2022. Over 94% of these sales went to the European market, where our customers benefit from ENCE's unique wide portfolio of sustainable products and shorter delivery times. Our differentiated products accounted for 18% of our total pulp sales, compared to 15% in the same period of last year, despite Pontevedra downtime. These higher value-added products are more sustainable and are well-adapted to replace plastic and softwood pulp, also delivering higher margins.
We aim to increase progressively the sale of these products during the next year towards a target of 400,000 tons. I will invite now Alfredo to continue reviewing our first nine months results in more detail.
Thank you, Ignacio. Continuing with slide number nine, you can see how strong pulp prices have more than offset the widespread inflation in raw materials boosting the operating margin of our pulp business up to EUR 214 per ton in the first ninE months of the year. Note that regarding energy, our biomass generates more electricity than that needed for the operation, and that we are not natural gas dependent. Also, our raw materials and supplies are largely locally sourced. The year-on-year increase in the cash cost is mainly due to certain needs of wood imports caused by the shortage of harvesting capacity in the Northwest of Spain and the rise in chemical and logistic costs, which are directly linked to energy prices.
Pontevedra downtime implied a EUR 15 per ton increase in the cash cost of the first nine months, mainly due to a lower fixed cost dilution. Turning now to slide number 10, you can see the strong operating cash inflow of EUR 111 million registered for the first nine months in our renewable energy business, with average energy prices of EUR 186 per megawatt-hour. These results already include the change in the remuneration parameters applicable to renewables in 2022. This change has no negative impact on the cash flow guidance given in the Capital Markets Day back in March, which already anticipated a similar change. Energy sales also improved by 19% when compared to the first nine months of 2021. However, the energy sold was 4% lower compared to the previous quarter.
This is explained by the reduced availability of olive cake in the market. As you know, we have three biomass plants which main supply is the olive cake. Well, the change in the regulation and the high gas prices during 2022 have impacted the gas cogeneration plants used by some of our suppliers to dry the olive pomace, reducing therefore the production of olive cake. As a result, we had to adjust the electricity production of our olive cake plants to this lower supply availability. It is foreseeable that this situation may continue in the coming months. We are now aiming at energy sales of around 340 GWh in the fourth quarter, or 1,530 GWh in the full year 2022.
Wrapping up in the following slide, number 11, we have delivered another set of strong operating results, despite the temporary downtime at Pontevedra. Our pulp business EBITDA improved by 56% year-over-year, up to EUR 111 million, driven by the strong recovery in pulp prices, which more than offset the widespread inflationary pressure in raw materials and logistics. In addition, the renewable energy business EBITDA reached EUR 96 million, driven by the higher energy prices and fewer biomass plants capped by the regulation. Remember that this figure includes a reversal of part of the regulatory clawback provision of EUR 40 million explained in the previous quarter, which was partially offset by a EUR 36 million impairment in the book value of certain biomass plants without any cash flow effect.
With such strong operating results, our attributable net income reached up to EUR 67 million in the first nine months of the year, compared with the loss of EUR 193 million in the same period last year, which included impairments and provisions relating to our Pontevedra concession for a net amount of EUR 200 million. As you can see on slide 12, we have ended the period with a very strong financial position, which provides us with maximum flexibility to seize any growth opportunities. We reduced net debt by EUR 174 million down to a net cash position of EUR 72 million at the end of the period, with EUR 480 million cash in balance. Our pulp business had net cash positions of EUR 75 million, with a cash in balance of EUR 317 million.
Note that we have already repurchased 54% of the EUR 160 million convertible bond expiring on March 2023. On the other hand, our renewable energy business net debt was reduced by EUR 119 million, down to just EUR 3 million at the end of the period, with long-term maturities and a cash balance of EUR 163 million. As mentioned by our chairman earlier, note that the working capital improvement registered in the first nine months was largely driven by the pending payments to electricity system, which will result in a cash outflow during the coming quarters. These payments are related to the regulatory changes made by the government during 2022 and amount up to EUR 70 million. Turning now to slide 13, I would like to mention the highlights of our sustainable performance.
We are already at the forefront in sustainable forestry, in circular economy, in social commitment, in gender equality, and in corporate governance. Our best practices have been recognized by independent agencies such as FTSE4Good or Sustainalytics, which in its latest study confirmed ENCE once again as the most sustainable player in the global pulp market. I would like to highlight the following achievements in the first nine months of the year. Firstly, Navia has reduced its water consumption by 11% compared to the previous year, and we have developed an innovative solution to minimize river water consumption during the times of drought at Pontevedra. This is an outstanding achievement that strengthens the sustainability of our bio mills, as well as solid proof of our commitment towards it. Secondly, we have continued to reduce the odor of both pulp bio mills, which is already below one minute per day.
It's the lowest level in Navia's history. These results also demonstrate our firm commitment toward the communities in our areas of influence. Thirdly, our 27 MW biomass power plant in Córdoba has also been awarded with AENOR's Zero Waste Certificate. Close to 90% of our production centers have now earned this award. We expect to reach 100% by the end of the year, strengthening our position as a reference in the circular economy. Let me now return to our chairman, who will continue with the final slides.
Thank you, Alfredo. Continuing with slide 14, let me update you about our Pontevedra concession. The Supreme Court has delayed its decision about the extension of the Pontevedra concession. The decision was originally expected in October, but it has been delayed in order to reach an aligned verdict in our two cases and in the three other similar cases from third parties. We expect a verdict in the next few months. In any case, may I emphasize the following four points. Firstly, we are cautiously optimistic about the Supreme Court decision following a recent favorable ruling in a similar case. Secondly, the potential closure of the biofactory was already provisioned in our accounts last year. Thirdly, we await the Supreme Court decision with a very strong balance sheet, with no net debt, and with high liquidity in both businesses.
Finally, if the biofactory has to be closed, the lost annual free cash flow from Pontevedra will be more than offset by the combination of the Navia Excelente project and by either of the two alternatives available to expand Navia production. Turning now to slide 15, I would like to give you some further information about the new solution that we are testing to surmount low river flow level situations at Pontevedra, such as we experienced this year. Our solution uses reverse osmosis technology to regenerate water from our effluent and from the adjacent public wastewater treatment plant. In the right-hand picture, you can see the public wastewater treatment plant with these water deposits next to our own wood yard. In the left-hand picture, you can see part of the works designed to connect our biofactories to those water deposits.
Note that this is an innovation within the global pulp and paper sector, and will allow us to offset the risk of fresh water scarcity at our Pontevedra biofactory in the future. Moving now to slide number 16. May I remind you of our strategic roadmap for the pulp business with modular and adaptable investments and the targeted IRR of over 12%. In our Capital Market Day back in March, we confirmed that our strategy is to defend our Pontevedra concession and to proceed with our Navia Excelente project. Well, we have launched our Navia Excelente project with an estimated investment of over EUR 100 million in the next couple of years to promote the sale of our differentiated products, to diversify production towards fluff pulp, and to decarbonize the biofactory. Regarding Pontevedra, we should know the final decision from the Supreme Court in the coming months.
Remember, however, that if the court resolution goes against us, we will proceed with at least the Navia 100 project. As you know, this project consists in using the most modern equipment from Pontevedra to build a new line of 100,000 tons of BHKP in Navia with an expected CapEx of EUR 100 million. The combination of Navia Excelente plus Navia 100,000 tons will more than compensate Pontevedra's EBITDA in case we need to dismantle it. In other words, we will continue either with Pontevedra and Navia Excelente or with Navia 100 and Navia Excelente, but doing nothing is not an option. Furthermore, we recently announced together with the regional government of Galicia, a new project in As Pontes for the production of bleached recycled fiber from recovered paper mixed with virgin fiber.
We believe it is an opportunity to provide a unique product for customers eager to increase the circular attributes of their paper products and who are struggling to find the required amounts of bleached recycled fiber due to the decline in printing and writing paper. We have started to analyze the first phase of the project with a time horizon through to 2026. The engineering and permit processes will take over one year. Turning now to the following slide number 17, we show you the pipeline progress of our renewable business. Growth in this business through our controlling stake in Magnon Green Energy is based on the development of its 813 MW pipeline, which comprises 373MW of PV, which are almost ready to build.
300 MW of PV projects in the South of Spain at an earlier stage, and 140 MW in biomass, which are also almost ready to build. As announced in the biomass auction held in October 2025, Magnon opted for a prudent strategy in a context of widespread inflation impacting EPC and other costs. There are two other biomass auctions planned in 2023 and 2025 for a combined capacity of 240 MW, and the national energy plan includes 400 MW more before 2030. On top of that, you can see in the final slide number 18, we are analyzing several opportunities in Spain to replace gas-fired industrial heating with biomass-fired heating. May I mention another interesting business we will begin. At ENCE, we have decided to be active in the development of biogas and biomethane in Spain.
This will be a new business line based on the circular economy that already drives our two main businesses, which has a high growth potential in Spain and which is consistent with our diversification strategy into renewable energies. Before ending, I would like to emphasize, firstly, we have one of the stronger balance sheets of the industry, both in pulp and renewables. Secondly, despite the impact of Pontevedra downtime, today we are more resilient. This innovative solution we are deploying will allow us to produce pulp in Pontevedra even in heavy droughts. We have built a huge stock of wood. We expect strong energy and pulp prices in fourth quarter and in 2023. We don't use gas in our process, and we are not self-sufficient in energy, but a net exporter. Thank you for your attention. We would be pleased now to hear any questions you may have.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please press zero one on your telephone keypad. You will have the opportunity to ask all the questions that you may have. We kindly ask you to ask only one question at a time to our speakers instead of stating multiple questions at the beginning. Thank you. The first question comes from Cole Hathorn from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. If I just focus on the pulp market to start off with, can you talk about the underlying wood cost inflation that you're seeing? Your peers in the Nordics and Central and Eastern Europe have been calling out higher wood costs. I imagine while you're seeing wood cost inflation in the Iberia region, your dynamics are slightly different. I'm trying to understand if your cost inflation is relatively less than some of your European peers, making you potentially better placed. Thank you.
Yeah, thank you for your question. Well, let's say we have two regions. We have Latin America, Iberia, and Scandinavia. I think in the three regions, the wood price is increasing. Probably it has increased more in Latin America and in Scandinavia than in Iberia. As we are not importing from Latin America, as other Iberians are doing, well, we benefit from lower increase in prices. Regarding chemicals, we are all suffering the same increase. The chemicals we use are very intensive in energy, and then these huge prices of energy are reflected in the chemicals we are buying. It's the same with the energy and fuels we are using, and it's the same with the freight rates we are paying. I think that we have a slightly lower impact due to the wood prices.
EUR 30, more or less, we have all suffered an increase between EUR 100 and EUR 150 per ton. What is important is that all the analysts today think that the bottom price of the pulp used to be $480 because it's the marginal variable cost of the marginal industry. Today, we are more close to $600. The analysts are also seeing good prices for next year, and I think we will continue benefiting from higher margins. Thank you.
You called out in slide 18, you have an opportunity for industrial biomass, and I imagine this is combined heat and power plants. Could you give a little bit more color, you know, on what could the opportunity be here? I mean, is this going to be Magnon partnering with industrial businesses to effectively run a biomass combined heat and power plant and optimize, you know, electricity production and sales for these businesses? Because the opportunity is quite big. I mean, I look at your paper and packaging industry as a whole, and there are a lot of gas-powered combined heat and power plants where I imagine a lot of people would like to be using biomass right now. Thank you.
Yeah. We are starting by the food and beverage industry. The food and beverage industry has normally medium-size gas boilers. This business is to substitute this gas boiler by biomass boiler. We are talking about small installations of 10 MW-30 MW, thermal megawatts. No electricity, only heat. That's what we are doing. Today, we have an interesting pipeline, and I hope we will close our first deal before Christmas. It's a huge opportunity because even at normalized prices of the gas, the biomass for thermal applications is more competitive. As you know, we are buying 5 million tons of biomass in Spain. We have a market share of 25% of all the wood we sold in Spain, wood and biomass.
Well, all these food and beverage industry, they know that it is cheaper to produce heat with biomass than with gas. Well, but they are a bit reluctant because they are a bit afraid about they don't know anything about biomass and, well, they trust in ENCE's capabilities. Thank you.
Thank you. My final question is, I'm not sure how much you can provide, but you know, you mentioned that you'd be conservative in the auctions in October for the biomass pipeline, and you've still got opportunities for 2023 and 2025. However, I just wanna find out if you were able to participate, did you get any insights from where competitors came in with their bids, and any thoughts you can share on the auction process? Thank you.
Let me give you several comments. First, we have built a business in biomass from 2012 till now, who is having an EBITDA of well, EUR 70 million with no debt. That we have been able to build a healthy business in renewables. We have been doing that step by step, always being very prudent. We have aborted many projects because they were too risky. What happened in this auction? Well, the price you are bidding for the electricity you will sell to the grid is a fixed price for 20 years, no inflation. Let's say that you offer, like one of our competitors have done at EUR 101/MWh . You will have this fixed price for the next 20 years.
We are not interested in this business. On top of that, the big difference between the regulation we are benefiting in our existing biomass power plants and the auction of this week is that today 100% of the energy we are selling is at the feed-in tariff. On the auction of this week, 15% of the energy is at market price. Market price is excellent today, no doubt. It will be excellent next year, no doubt. After three or four years, the prices of the energy will go back to EUR 35/MWh or EUR 40 /MWh , and you cannot produce with biomass at these prices. You have 15% of your production sold at prices where you lose money. Finally, we have been building our biomass business always with EPC contracts and with project finance.
The EPC contractor takes the risk of the construction and takes the risk of the technology. The banks who give you the project finance with non-recourse debt, well, it's like an inspector who inspects that there is no risks, no technology risks, no regulation risks, no biomass risks. Today, the prices the EPC contractors were offering us were very expensive due to the scarcity of what is happening today in the world. We all think that the prices of the commodities will go down. We all think that the prices of the wages will go down, but we don't have the certainty, and we cannot put money of our shareholders on a gambling like that. Today, to raise a project finance, it's more expensive than a few years ago. We think that it's better to wait, to be prudent, to wait.
We can develop the industrial heating business. We can develop the biomethane business, and let's see what happens next year or in a couple of years on the next auctions. As you know, because it has been published by the government, Hunosa, a state-owned mining company in Asturias, has been awarded 50 MW at the incredible price of EUR 77 /MWh . Today, we are sourcing our biomass at EUR 60 /MWh . It's an incredible price. A first-class company, like Acciona, has been awarded EUR 101, but I don't know their strategy, and I respect this company. I have nothing to say. Another company has been awarded EUR 106.
Well, those prices, at the prices we are selling our energy on the regulated market in the mills we built a few years ago with this different regulation, with inflation, with 100% of the sales going to the feed-in tariff. With the capacity, which is very important in our business, to go to the secondary market. Today, this year, we are going to make at least EUR 12 million of EBITDA with the secondary market. With this auction, you cannot go to the secondary market. That's why we have been prudent, like always, and let's say, what we do in the future. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question comes from Gonzalo de Cueto from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my questions. A couple of one, two questions from my side. First one would be a follow-up on my colleague's question on cost. Could you update us on the situation in the north of Spain regarding wood sourcing? Are you seeing any improvement on this front at all? Looking at next year, what could be a reasonable starting point in terms of gas cost? That will be the first one.
Yeah. Thank you, Gonzalo. Well, even if Pontevedra has been shut down, we have continued to buy wood in the Northwest of Spain, and today we benefit from an incredible stock as we never have had in the past. We are going to restart Pontevedra, and we face now the fourth quarter, and we face 2023 with a huge stock of biomass. Sorry, stock of wood for our pulp business. Today we are already. We have already started to reduce prices because we have this stock and we can play this game. What is happening on the wood market in the Northwest part of Spain? Companies who were producing plywood, well, today the market has decreased a lot.
They are not competing like they were competing last year, around the first half of this year against the pulp industry buying eucalyptus. They are out of the market today. That's good news. The pellet industry is not so important in Spain like it is in Portugal. Here we estimate in total Spain, no more than 400,000 tons, and in the Northwestern part of Spain, only 200,000 tons. They are working at full capacity, which is good for them. In countries like Portugal, well, we estimate 3 million tons. It's a different situation. Here we benefit, let's say, from a small pellet industry. What has changed on the other side is that today there are some exports of wood, roughly 20,000 tons per month to Scandinavia. That's new.
This wood is replacing birch wood in Scandinavian pulp industry as well. It's more or less what the plywood was buying before then. It's not a huge problem. Due to this macro situation I explained and due to that we have huge stock of wood, well, we have started to reduce slightly prices. I don't think we will be able to come back to the prices of 2020 next year, but I think at least the wood will not continue to increase, and it may even decrease a bit. Thank you.
Thank you. My last question would be, could you remind us on the maintenance stops you will need to do on the pulp and the pulp business and also in terms of targeting volumes to be produced next year? Many thanks.
Yeah. We are trying to postpone our maintenance downtime instead of January and February, as it was planned at the beginning. Well, more to April, May. It's not yet defined. What was your third question, Gonzalo?
The target in terms of volumes to be produced next year.
Yeah. Slightly above 1 million tons.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Jaime Escribano from Banco Santander. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. A few questions from my side. The first one would be more in terms of market outlook. Just based on your information, what are the current dynamics that you are seeing in terms of pricing both in China and Europe? It looks November the hardwood prices will remain like this. But how do you see, for example, December, January? Do you see prices declining or stable? Or any color you can provide would be very useful. Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you, Jaime. Well, what we see today on the market, let's differentiate in China, Europe and softwood and hardwood. China, in softwoods, the market is slightly declining, $10-$20. And in Europe the same. In hardwood, the market is still strong in China and is very strong in Europe. What is going to happen, I don't know. It's very difficult today to predict what is happening, you know. Because you see what happened this week and with the prices of the gas, negative prices of the gas. Well, nobody expected that. I think it's very difficult to see what is going to happen.
What I know today is that the market, our market is strong. Our customers are still benefiting from a strong order book. In printing and writing, they are not very happy, but printing and writing is only 15% of the total market pulp, and for us it's nothing very important. It's marginal. Tissue, where we are very strong, it is doing pretty well in Europe. Well, we don't see a lot of risk of big changes in the prices. As you know, the analysts are expecting good prices for next year, but prices a bit lower than the prices of today. But I don't have more information, Jaime.
Ignacio, why do you say that paper customers are not that happy? Because they have lower margins or they are not being able to pass higher prices or what is the dynamic there?
No, no, sorry. I said printing and writing paper customers. The, yeah, in the different segments of the pulp industry, where you have the tissue, which doing pretty well, you have packaging which doing pretty well, and you have printing and writing with only 15% of the industry. Well, in printing and writing, the market is not so strong like it is in other products.
Just a final question regarding the market. The recovered paper is going down around $50 per ton in the last few weeks. Could you tell us what is the dynamic there and what could be the impact on the virgin pulp, if any?
No, I think there is not a link between recovered paper and virgin pulp. Again, as I was saying to you before, 60%-65% of the pulp market is going to tissue, where recovered paper is not important. Recovered paper is important for printing and writing, and it's important for packaging.
Okay.
On the packaging, well, when you buy a box, let's say with an iPad inside, the nice aspect of the box, the white aspect of the box is virgin pulp, and the volume is recovered paper. Well, they are buying at good prices, at strong prices, the paper, the white paper, and today they are able to buy at cheaper prices the recovered paper. But it is not affecting.
Okay. Okay, very good. My second question is regarding the cash costs ex Pontevedra. You mentioned it's close to EUR 500 per ton. How should we think about the cash costs next year once Pontevedra is up to speed? I don't know if you can give us some guidance or at least qualitatively, how should we think about the cash costs? Maybe this EUR 500 per ton could make sense for 2023 or how do you see it?
No, we see our prices today, cash costs on the range of EUR 515- EUR 500. That's the vision we have today. Let's see what happens with the wood, and let's see what happens with the chemicals. Because if the energy remains about EUR 200/MWh, the chemicals we are buying will still be on high prices.
Okay. Okay, perfect. Just a final question. Regarding new capacity coming into next year, some investors are concerned that there will be Arauco ramping up capacity almost at the same time. How do you see the impact of this new capacity in the market?
Well, you know that I am not pessimistic, but by nature. Being rational, what I see is that Arauco will probably start at the end of this year. They have been delaying. Well, we will see if they start at the end of the year like they have said. We will see their pulp on the market at the end of first quarter. UPM, we think they will start at the end of second quarter, then we will see their pulp on the market in the third quarter. At the same time, something very important is happening. Bracell is a big line of 2.7 million-2.8 million tons in Brazil. It's a double line.
They have announced that progressively, one of the two lines with a capacity of 1.4 million tons, that today is producing BHKP, this line will be switching progressively during the next months to dissolving pulp for the, for the dissolving pulp mills in Asia. This pulp will be out of the market. What we see is that the new pulp on the market from UPM and from Arauco, well, will take the place of these pulps today sold by Brazil. As you know, well, the market grows every year between 1 million tons-2 million tons, and the market will continue growing. I always say the same. Don't forget that tissue is 60% of our industry, our market. Tissue consumption in the States, in Scandinavia, in U.K. is around 28 kilos per inhabitant per year. In Spain, we are in 15.
In the continent, we are in 15, and in China they are below five. There is a continuous increase in demand in tissue, and that means between 1 million tons and 2 million tons per year. We see, as a résumé, that the new capacity coming from Uruguay and from Chile will be matched with a decrease of production of BHKP by Brazil, and at the same time, the market will continue growing. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question comes from João Pinto from JB Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three, if I may. The first one, regarding next year, can you provide us some feedback from your clients how they see next year, knowing that the economic cycle is deteriorating? Do you expect any slowdown in demands, or do you think that demand will grow as usual?
No, no. We see a stable growing demand. As I'm saying, this market is always growing, you know? It grows 1 million tons or 2 million tons. The consumption of tissue per capita worldwide will continue growing. We see a good market, yeah. On top of that, today, the inventories of all the customers and the supply chain, it's very short. Well, that's a buffer in case that's during one quarter or two quarters, the economy cools a bit more than what we expect, then we are not concerned. No.
Okay, thank you. My second question, on the solution for the water issues in Pontevedra, does it require meaningful CapEx or not really?
Well, we are investing in Pontevedra around EUR 6 million in this solution. This solution, as you know, well, we are starting the trials Monday, Tuesday next week. It took us more than expected to buy all the equipment and to install all the equipment and to get all the permits. We are going to be on trials all next week with these equipment, taking the water from the effluent of the city of Pontevedra and cleaning this effluent. You know, it's possible to use as industrial water. We hope we will start the factory in mid-November. That's our idea.
That's very clear. My last question on working capital. There are EUR 50 million in accounts payable to the electricity market watchdog. Can you give us some color on this? I thought that these adjustments were made through the return on investment parameters. Could you give us some color if anything changed?
We have EUR 50 million on the energy business, and we have EUR 20 million on the pulp business. It's EUR 70 million. You know that the government published a draft modifying the feed-in tariff we are benefiting at the beginning of the year. It's a draft. It has not been confirmed. Reducing the feed-in tariff. As we are a prudent company, we have been accounting month- by- month at the new lower prices, the energy we are selling from both businesses, pulp and energy. The law hasn't changed. It was only a draft. Today, we have a cash in we had during the year, a cash in of EUR 70 million which are not in the EBITDA.
We think that sooner or later, when this draft will be finally published, we will have to give back this money to the government. That's working capital, and that's not. That's a money that doesn't belong to us. We will have to give back that to the government.
Okay.
You know that we are benefiting from three. Well, the price we are selling the energy has three parts. The market, plus the RI, the retribution to the investment, plus the RO, the retribution to the operation. This EUR 50 million + EUR 20 million is the RO, who was reduced by this draft at the beginning of the year. I hope it's clear for you.
Yeah. What is very important, João, and let me remark, I know that my chairman has said that, is that this money or these earnings are not in the EBITDA. I mean, we are reducing our EBITDA by EUR 70 million. That has to be very clear.
Yeah. Very clear. Thank you very much. Just to confirm, a follow-up on a previous question, the EUR 515 cash cost that you mentioned before is for 2023 or for Q4?
No, it's for 2023.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you, João.
Thank you.Th e next question comes from Álvaro Lenze, from Alantra Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask regarding the renewable auctions, whether I mean, because the thing is that not all of the capacity that was to be auctioned has been awarded because no offers were competitive enough. What is your level of confidence that the government will change the maximum price for future auctions? In this regard, I remember that some of the earn-outs from the sale of the minority stake in energy business were related to the development of the pipeline in biomass. If you could update us on how confident are you on receiving these earn-outs in the future?
Well, regarding the auctions, I will answer and regarding the earn-out, Alfredo will answer. Well, we don't have visibility of what the government is going to do in the future. According to the National Plan of Renewable Energies, there are more than 400 MW of biomass to be auctioned in the future, then we will wait, but we don't know when it's going to be. Alfredo, regarding the earn-out.
Regarding the earn-out, as you know, the first milestone of this earn-out was the publication of the auction. The issue is that the limitation that the auction has set for 50% of the megawatts to be awarded to one group is what we are just talking with our partner. I mean, it should be a question of just splitting between this and the next auction rather than anything else. I mean, it's just a question that the instructions for these auctions were not all fully considered at that time, but I should not expect anything else.
Okay. My second question would be on the new pillars or growth opportunities that you have identified. You made a Capital Markets Day in the beginning of the year. I don't remember much mentioned to this. Is this something that has become a bigger opportunity now or that you have been studying over the last couple of months? Or why this new growth avenues that was not contemplated in the strategic plan?
Well, because we disclose what we are going to do when we are sure we are going to do. Well, I think that we said something regarding the industrial heat. We didn't quantify that, but we talk about that on the Capital Markets Day. Regarding the biomethane, well, we were just creating the team here to develop this business. We were finding the correct partners to develop this business. We were studying this business, and it was too early on the Capital Markets Day. Today, it's mature.
Okay. Last question.
It's like, Álvaro, it's like As Pontes. We didn't mention anything about As Pontes because we were working on that. Once we got As Pontes, we announced As Pontes.
Okay. Last question, regarding As Pontes, we've seen some continued delays in the delivery of EU funds to fund these kind of projects. Do you have any updates on whether the project could be eligible to any type of public funding?
It has been already approved by the government of Spain. I say that in Spanish, it's transición justa, a fair transition from the old economy to the new economy. There is EUR 120 million for the province of A Coruña. It is EUR 200 million for Asturias. Well, according to the law, we can have 15% of the investments. Now, all this package is in Europe, and we think they will publish the convocatorias by first or second quarter next year. In any case, 15% subsidy is important. It helps.
We are so motivated with the business of bleached recovered pulp mixed with virgin pulp in As Pontes. There are other subsidies who will arrive in the future then. Well, we are not too much concerned about what is going to happen. I think we will benefit from that, but there are other options also.
Okay. Last question on my side. Regarding the litigation process on Pontevedra, it was delayed to match all the different process and give one final ruling. We were expecting it to be announced earlier in October. Delayed, we were now looking for early November. In the release, you indicated that you expect in the coming months. Could you clarify if this. Do you have any visibility on what the timeline should be?
I don't have, unfortunately, more visibility than you. The only thing we know is that we received from the Supreme Court a document one week ago saying that they want to analyze five cases who are very similar. Two are the cases in Pontevedra, the ones of Pontevedra pulp mill. You have three other cases, one in the province of Santander and two other ones in the east part of Spain. As they think they are very similar, they want to decide at the same time. All those the other three cases are also finished and ready to have a verdict. It can be on the next month.
The first milestone will be when the Supreme Court will send to the four of us a letter saying, "In X date, we will give you the verdict." Well, we expect they will send us this letter during this quarter before Christmas, and then we expect to know something, to know the verdict on the first quarter next year. I have not the certainty. That's only my rationale.
Okay. Thank you.
In any case, well, you know how I am. I am optimistic by nature. I am not pessimistic, but the Supreme Court confirmed a concession in the East part of Spain now one year ago. That's why we changed and we are more optimistic today. Well, if they want to give a solution to the four other cases who are different but very similar at the same time, well, we think it's good news, you know.
Thanks, Ignacio.
Thank you very much, Álvaro.
Thank you. The next question comes from Edward Bottomley from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Three from my side. Firstly, I was wondering on the pulp market dynamics. Given your comments on pulp supply, Brazil's switching of the line, kind of offsetting UPM and Arauco continued high cash costs, would it not maybe suggest that pulp prices can sustain the high levels they're at for the moment, or at least not drop as much as current estimates from independent experts expect? What's your thinking around that?
Yeah, Edward, I cannot give you more information. I see that for the next month the prices are strong. I have no visibility on what can happen on the first quarter or second quarter because, you know, there's plenty of uncertainties today. We have a geopolitical uncertainty. We have the impact of the monetary policies. We have the impact of the fiscal policies. We have the war, the invasion of Ukraine and the impact on the energy prices. Then it's very difficult to know what is going to happen. Today, I don't see any reason why the prices should go down. But it is true that the analysts are saying that the prices will be slightly lower next year. That's true.
Okay. Thank you.
Just one thing, Ed.
Of course.
Just regarding timing of whatever happens, just remember that when we sell, we sell linked to the previous or the two previous months of the fixed price. Whatever happens in our accounts, we'll have a delay of one to two months. Just for you to have that, to take that into account.
Yes, of course. Thanks. I guess on a separate angle, looking at the dividend payout so far this year, you've done 100% in each of the first three quarters. What should we be thinking for Q4, and then maybe also next year as a reasonable dividend payout ratio?
Well, you know our dividend policy then, with this low leverage, which is going to be very close to 100%.
Okay. Thank you. The last question, sorry, if I may, would be in the fourth quarter. It seems like we're probably going to have a bit of a ramp up in CapEx, given what happened in Q3 or the lack of CapEx in Q3, and also working capital. Could we have an idea on how big that capital expenditure and working capital impact might be in Q4?
Well, today we see a lower CapEx in 2022 than the one we forecasted. We have been managing that pretty well in terms of paying these investments. In pulp, well, on the Capital Market Day, we announced EUR 90 million for this year, where we are going to have a cash out of only EUR 50 million, including what happened in Pontevedra, and EUR 40 million will go to next year. In energy, we announced on the Capital Market Day, EUR 20 million, and five million will go to next year, and we are going only to cash out EUR 15 million. On the total company, the Capital Market Day, we announced EUR 110 million. EUR 45 million are not going to be paid this year.
They are going to be paid on the first half of next year, and then the cash out is going to be only EUR 65 million.
Okay, thank you. On working capital, do we have an idea, or is it uncertain on your side given the having to wait for the government, and the electricity payments that you've been booking as working capital?
Could you repeat the question, please?
On working capital, do you have much of an idea what that might look like in Q4, or are you awaiting the government clarification on the electricity payments that you've been booking as working capital?
Well, we have these EUR 70 million today, and they are increasing EUR 10 million per month. We don't know when we have to pay that. That is why we state very clearly that we have this money, but it is not our money. You know, when you do your calculations, you are. You know? Well, I don't know when we are going to pay. We are going to pay back this money once they will definitely publish this draft. I have no idea. On the other hand, well, we have benefited a bit in terms of working capital in third quarter of the downtime in Pontevedra because, well, we have stopped to invoice and we have an average of 60 days of collecting.
Well, that we have improved the working capital for that. It is true that at the same time we have built a fantastic stock of goods. Well, as soon as we restart Pontevedra, we will have again these 60 days of Pontevedra customers.
Okay, brilliant. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the conference. I now give back the floor to Mr. Ignacio de Colmenares and Mr. Alfredo Avello. Thank you.
Well, thank you very much for your interest. We are in contact. Any further doubts you have, you just call Alberto Valdés, and we will be in contact. Thank you very much and have a good day.
Thank you very much, gentlemen and ladies.