Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to ENCE's Capital Market Day. I'm Alberto Valdés, Head of Investor Relations. Today's event is scheduled to take no more than two hours, with a one-hour presentation, followed by a Q&A session. Our speakers will be Mr. Ignacio de Colmenares, Chairman and CEO, Mr. Alfredo Avello, CFO and Chief Forestry Officer, Mr. Jordi Aguiló, CEO of our pulp business, and Mr. Marc Gómez, CEO of our renewable business, Magnon Green Energy. Today's presentation is divided into six sections. Mr. Colmenares will start explaining his strategic vision and will be followed by Mr. Avello with an overview of our forestry business before giving way to Mr. Aguiló and Mr. Gómez, who will explain our competitive position and growth plans for our pulp and renewable businesses. Then, Mr. Avello will explain our financial outlook with more detail, and Mr.
Colmenares will end the presentation with his closing remarks before moving to the Q&A session. Let me hand over now to Mr. Colmenares, who will start with his strategic view. Ignacio, your turn, please.
Thank you, Alberto Valdés. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, good morning, good evening. Thank you for joining us today. I am Ignacio de Colmenares. I have a long experience on the steel industry, who has many similarities with the pulp and the energy industries. Cost is essential. It's very important. It's a commodity. It is cyclical. Financial discipline is a must. After 21 years on the steel industry, I moved to the renewables, where I spent almost 3 years managing a company, producing cells, PV panels, developing PV parks, and constructing PV parks. At the end of 2010, I met Juan Luis Arregui. Juan Luis Arregui was at this stage the executive chairman of ENCE and was, like he is today, the main shareholder of the company. I fall in love with the vision of Mr. Arregui of ENCE, based on two pillars.
First is the use of the total components of the tree. Total efficiency on the tree. The second one is to develop a renewable business based on biomass in order to compensate the lower ratio of growth of the eucalyptus tree in Spain comparing to Brazil and other South American countries. I joined ENCE, as you know, in January 2011, and now I would like to make a description of ENCE. We transform local resources into fantastic renewable products, pulp and electricity. The process is eco-efficient, and we are in two growing markets. Pulp market is growing year by year by 1.6 million tons. The renewables, as you will see later on and as you already know, is the fastest-growing market today in the world. We are the unique pulp producer in Iberia, not importing on a regular basis wood from abroad.
All our natural resources are surrounding our pulp mills. We have the same philosophy in our biomass business. We do not import biomass. We use local and close biomass. We benefit from tremendous natural resources in Spain, both at the north and at the south. We also sell locally. We don't export to the Far East or to the Americas. We sell mainly in Europe and mainly in Western Europe, where our customers can benefit, as you will see later on, of short lead times. Selling our products close to where we produce them, and using local wood, we have a lower impact on the CO2 footprint of our company and our customers. That is extremely important and will have more importance every day. We have proved that we know how to develop a renewable energy business. We have, as you know, strong financial discipline.
Where does it come from? Well, probably because when we are planting a tree, it's for 45 years. The eucalyptus tree planted in Spain is harvested three times at 15 years before replanting it at the year number 45. Long vision. When we are building a greenfield biomass power plant, it's for 25 years. Long time v ision. That's why we have a strict financial discipline, which is extremely important in this cyclical business and in this uncertain world. On top of that, we have a real good corporate governance which diminish risks, no doubt. I insist, it's real. We have, in all the commissions, a majority of independent directors. All the commissions of the board are led by an independent director, and the independent directors are nominated directly through the commissions of nominations and distributions.
For many years, we've been committed to sustainability, and we've been widely recognized a few months ago by Sustainalytics as number one worldwide in sustainability in pulp. What brings us here today? Our share price has suffered in the last year due to two reasons: the Pontevedra problem and our hedges in 2021 in energy and in pulp. As you already know, we made this decision in 2020 during the pandemic, where we had a lot of uncertainties of how the markets of pulp and energy were to develop in 2021. Remember that in 2020, prices of pulp and energy were extremely low, record lows. We had more than EUR 80 million of commitments to pay by our investments in 2019 and 2018. Then we decided to secure the cash.
We make a prudent decision then later on, has cost us a lot of money. What is important is that today and since December 2021, we have no more hedges in pulp or in energy, that today, we are a bit more optimistic, as you know, about the Pontevedra solution. I would like to insist and to point out very clearly, the Pontevedra problem is a zoning issue. It's not at all an environmental issue. Today, we will present you Navia Excelente.
After two years of knowing what is happening about Pontevedra, we've been analyzing many opportunities, we've been analyzing many solutions, and we have found a fantastic plan which we have already started, which will bring a lot of value to the company and to the shareholders, and which will, in case we have to shut down Pontevedra, compensate 100% of the free cash flow, the EBITDA Pontevedra is giving us today, and with limited and phased investments. We have decided that we will defend the legality of the concession of Pontevedra, and we are, as I said before, a bit more optimistic today. In December 2021, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of a concession very similar to us. One and a half months ago, the Supreme Court has accepted our appeal. What is Navia Excelente?
It is a fantastic plan. It will compensate, as I said, the free cash flow and the EBITDA we are getting today in Pontevedra, in case we have to shut down Pontevedra. Even more important, we can already start to execute this plan. This plan has several steps. We are investing, firstly, in fluff, a fiber who is today imported from Latin America, from North America and Europe, and where the customers have a lot of uncertainties about the sustainability in long term of such fiber imported from North America, and they really want us to go into this market. We will decarbonize by 75% our Pontevedra, sorry, our Navia mill. That is very important because we are going to substitute natural gas by lignin.
At the same time, we are going to debottleneck our recovery boiler, giving us the possibility to produce 30,000 tons more of pulp. If we win in Pontevedra case, we will stop there. If we lose in Pontevedra, we have the possibility to increase Navia by 100,000 tons, which is a limited amount of money. What are the pros of this nice project? I insist, we can already start, and we have already start. It is a project executed step by step with limited amount of investment, and we think it is important on a cyclical business to do that step by steps. In case something happens on the market, something happens on the world in 2 years or 3 years, we can just stop a few months.
Because we like very much Navia 340,000 tons, which is fully permitted. It is a commitment of EUR 450 million. Today, in this world, to commit EUR 450 million of investment makes us a lot of doubt. That is why we prefer Navia 100,000 tons at the end. Why do we keep no debt in pulp, even if it is less financially efficient than having debt? In order to have the freedom. In 2 years' time, when we will know what happens with Pontevedra, to do whatever we think is the best for our shareholders. Why do we have also low debt in energy? Because we want a high conversion of EBITDA in cash flow.
We don't want just a business with nice EBITDA, we want a business with good and strong free cash flow. As you know, we have very recently approved a new dividend policy which is more linked to the free cash flow of the company than to the net profit of the company. What are our competitive advantages in pulp? Very simple. Worldwide market is 66 million tons. European market is 16 million tons. 8 million tons, 50% of European market, are produced in Scandinavia, produced from spruce, a tree who goes very slowly and which is harvested not before 70 years. The balance, the other 50, the other 8 million tons are hardwood. Out of these 8 million tons, six are coming from Brazil and two are produced in Iberia. What is our competitive advantage? Two important competitive advantages.
Our eucalyptus tree, we harvest it every 15 years instead of 70 the spruce in Scandinavia, and which has a higher content of pulp. We only require 3 tons of eucalyptus for producing 1 ton of pulp instead of 5 tons of spruce for producing 1 ton of pulp. We harvest sooner, and it has higher yield in pulp. That gives us a competitive advantage of $100 per ton if you compare our pulp to the pulp produced in Scandinavia. 80% of the market, 80% of the pulp on the market can be substituted. That is extremely important in our strategy. What is our competitive advantage against the Brazilians? Well, they have better land than us, they have better rain than us, and they are able to harvest the eucalyptus every 7 years instead of 50 years .
They have a cost advantage against ENCE of $100. Well, it's our lead time. We are able to deliver any European customer in 1 week maximum. We have a fantastic and wide range of special products. They have huge and massive mills, modern mills. We have medium-sized mills, and we are able to produce those special products. We have a strong technical team, technician team, working very closely to the customers to substitute softwood by hardwood and to develop the market of paper products substituting plastic. This portfolio of special products is even more sustainable. One of the stars is the Naturcell. Naturcell is a pulp, a brown pulp, without chlorine and with a very, very ecological process. As I was saying before, another important factor when we compete against the Latin Americans is that we are close to the customer.
The CO2 footprint of our pulp in our customers is smaller than the Latin American one. All our customers, all the important paper companies today in Europe, have commitments to reduce their CO2 footprint, what helps our sales. Another very important competitive advantage of ENCE is local wood. We are surrounded by more than 600,000 hectares of wood. We have all the wood we need. We don't need to import. Our competitors in Europe, the other Iberians, they are importing from Latin America, and we have strong doubts about the sustainability and the possibility to do that for many years. Because the increase of pulp production in Latin America or our competition from Scandinavia, who normally imports certain amount of wood from Russia, the equivalent to 2 million tons of pulp.
Finally, in pulp, we benefit from a strong and experienced team, fully committed to our project. What are the competitive advantages in renewable energy? Well, first of all, the proven know-how in the development of renewable energies. Secondly, the proven capacity of buying brownfield at good prices. We've been always meeting in excess the IRR targets we declared 5 years ago now. 9% IRR in biomass and almost 8% IRR in PV. Remember, in pulp, it's 15.15%. Cash conversion. As I said before, we have projects with low debt, and the EBITDA has a high conversion in free cash flow. We have demonstrated also a proven capability to rotate assets to generate value to our shareholders.
We sold the CSP two years ago now at a fantastic price, which was more than the expected free cash flow we were obtaining from this, the CSP. We've done the same last year, at the end of last year, with our PV pipeline. We grow, and when we see the opportunity to add value to our shareholders, and when we get more IRR selling than constructing, we do that. The biomass itself has a strong competitive advantage on the renewables. It's the only dispatchable energy. It's the only manageable energy. The national grid supports the biomass because it is the backup of all the other renewables. Finally, on the renewable business, I would like to point out and to explain why we have a new CEO. Well, we've been growing by greenfields. We've been growing by M&A.
Today, we believe M&A is not going to be possible in the next years because the assets are very expensive. We have to grow with brownfield and going on new technologies. Marc Gómez, who has been many years the CEO and the chairman of ABB Iberia, has a strong knowledge of all those things who are important to make this business growing from a technological point of view. ENCE is in growing markets. Tissue is a fast-growing market. The consumption of tissue per capita in the States, in Scandinavia, in U.K. is 24 kg per capita per year. It is only 15 in Spain. It's less than 10 in Eastern Europe, and it's less than five in China. The demand of tissue is growing year by year. We have a fantastic product made in Pontevedra to produce tissue. Plastic replacement.
We've done a survey, you remember, 2 years ago now, and the plastic substitution is going to make the pulp market growing by 3 million tons in 2030 in Europe, and we are in this market. We have good range of products to supply and to develop this market, and we have good agreements with our customers to develop this market. In energy, we are in a booming market. Spain has committed to grow in wind for 28 GW-50 GW, in PV from 9 GW- 39 GW, and in biomass from 0.6 GW- 1.4 GW. We are going to be a player, an important player in this business. On top of that, we have in energy new business opportunities, and Marc will refer to that later on. The CO2 capture, the bioeconomy.
As Alfredo is going to say to you, in our forest assets, we want to develop CO2 capture. Sustainability equals to competitiveness. I remember on the 80s, where the companies were going to total quality, the old managers were claiming that the costs, the costs were increasing, and it was not true. I remember on the nineties, when we were on the industry doing a strong effort to be more safety, the old managers were saying the costs are increasing, and it is not true. Lower accident at work is cost reduction. Local procurement of biomass and wood is cost reduction. Gender pay gap equality allows ENCE to capture talent from the 50% of the market that if we don't have this policy, we were not able to capture.
The company is a great place to work, certified company, and that supports the commitment of our employees to our project, which is extremely important. We are reducing the CO2 impact. You know the prices of the CO2, it is cost reduction, and we are reducing the usage of water. In the local laws in Spain, the less water you use, the less water you pay. We stand ready to show a financial impact of climate change. We've been doing that forever. When we develop a new biomass power plant, we see what is going to happen with the climate on the next 25 years. We've been doing that for Puertollano, we've been doing that in Huelva, and we've been doing that in Mérida.
We know what to do in our biomass power plants when they will finish the regulatory life in the next years. We know what is going to happen on the water in Pontevedra and in Navia, and we know what is happening on the northwest of Spain with an increase of two degrees and the same level of rain in the north and less rain in the south of Galicia, and we know the clones we have to plant in order to be able to have good productivities in the future. ENCE Energía, today Magnon, was last year the first European company to certify the biomass according to the EU regulation. Why were we the first? Very simple.
Because already in 2018, we had a standard, our own standard of certification and deliberated with the ecologists, and we've been working with that and certifying our biomass on the previous three years. Also important from the point of view of corporate governance, ENCE in 2018 had its sustainability commission, who is leading our increase of sustainability day to day. My mantra, as I said before, is sustainability equals to competitiveness. Before finishing, let me share with you the possible impacts of the war today in Ukraine. If the war takes long, without a doubt, the GDP will decrease, the inflation will increase, and both may affect pulp demand and the prices of the pulp and the prices of the energy. But we are one of the sole large industries self-sufficient in energy. We have local resources for producing this energy.
We are more than self-sufficient. Even on the pulp business, we are a net exporter of energy to the grid. We have temporarily switched from gas to other fuels at Navia, and we don't depend anymore on gas. We source, I insist, our wood and our biomass locally, and we source chemicals in Spain and in other very close countries. We sell our pulp in Western Europe. Let my colleagues talk now. Thank you.
Thank you, Ignacio. Now is the turn of our CFO and Chief Forestry Officer, Mr. Alfredo Avello, who will give us an overview of our sustainable forestry business. Your turn, Alfredo.
Thank you, Ignacio. Thank you, Alberto. Let me talk to you about our hidden jewel in ENCE. We never talk enough about it. ENCE is the largest private forest manager in Spain. We manage 65,000 hectares. Eighty five percent o f them are PEFC and FSC certified, and around 20% of those areas are dedicated to preserving ecosystems and protecting biodiversity, being the reference in sustainable and responsible forestry management. Our forestry activities meet several targets. First of all, they act as natural carbon sinkers. We capture over 600,000 tons of CO2 annually. That's a great opportunity to continue this business in the near future. Our plantations in north of Spain, they act as a buffer to source wood to our bio mills, helping them not to import any wood, as our CEO has said before.
We promote efficient and sustainable plantations among private producers, providing improved clones and seedlings to them. We contribute to local richness, we create jobs, we preserve the forestation, we mitigate fire risks, and we fix population in rural areas. How we manage all these targets? As you know, sustainable wood production, as well as improved land management, plays a key role in the renewable carbon cycle. Our three nurseries in Spain produce 12 million clones and seedlings that are developed to adapt themselves to the specific climate, soil, and pest conditions of the areas in which they are planted. Two-thirds of this production is sold to local private producers, strengthening the sustainability of our resources. Also, we have a very advanced R&D forestry activity. We have nine clones of the second generation of them in the last phases to be approved already in the countryside.
These clones should increase by another 20% growth and sink yields the previous ones. On top of that, we're already working on our third generation clones. We have selected 400 families from different parts of the world with similar soil, climate, and pest characteristics that should be developed to increase by another 30% this growth and sink yields. Genetic improvement is key for sustainable forestry management, and our R&D activities are going to lead us at the forefront of the production of new bioproducts and carbon sink business. We will further then contribute to the circular economy while maintaining a very high responsible and sustainable business practice. You will hear something more from me later on. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Alfredo. Now is the turn of our CEO of our pulp business, Mr. Jordi Aguiló, who will explain our competitive position and growth plans for the business. Your turn, Jordi.
Thank you very much, Alberto. Best regards to everyone, wherever you are. It's a shame that we cannot share this time together in person, but at least we are lucky that we have all got used to these digital platforms. Next, I'll focus on the key aspects from our market, value proposition, and strategic projects. Please feel free to ask whatever you consider during the Q&A session. Let me start by sharing you the global pulp trade. As you can see, China and Europe are structural net importers of hardwood due to the lack of hardwood. This dependence cannot be reverted due to land unavailability.
The strong growth in China will add pressure on the prices of the wood that China is importing. Therefore, China will face higher cash costs that will increase the bottom prices of the cycle market pulp. Europe is depending on the hardwood that we are consuming. This dependence is around 40%, but in fact, if we consider the eucalyptus demand, this dependence increases up to 65%. ENCE has a privileged position to serve the European market, mainly for two reasons. Firstly, high quality of wood located in the northwest of Spain. We don't need to import wood on a recurring basis. Secondly, proximity to our customers where we have just-in-time advantages.
What's more even more important, we can add and supply technical advice, technical support to our customers in order to develop together special products that fits their needs. Over the past 10 years, we've seen our market grow almost 3% annually, which is equivalent to 1.6 million tons. The increasing demand in sectors like tissue, specialties, or packaging have more than compensated the decline in the printing and writing sector. More than half of the demand comes today from the fastest growing sector, tissue. Note that 85% of the population is just starting to consume this product, far away from the consumption rates that we have in developed countries, as Ignacio was talking about. Other growing categories are specialties and packaging with a market share of 25%. They enjoy growth thanks to the change in consumer habits and plastic substitution.
Thanks to the rise of e-commerce, the change towards self-packaging, the new uses of paper substituting plastics, or the new developments that we are seeing in trays, bottles, all made with paper. The decline of printing and writing makes the impact of this sector less with time. Nowadays, this sector accounts only for 20% of the demand, while 10 years ago, it accounted for more than 40%. We have a huge opportunity in our sector as pulp demand will still be growing because 80% of the demand is generated by these growing sectors that we've talked about before. When it comes to our business presence across markets, as you can see, Europe is the main focus with 94% of our sales. Europe is 94% of our sales.
Here is where we can provide a highly differentiated service with just-in-time advantages. We have better lead times and lower delivery costs. We can reach many ports due to the usage of smaller vessels with higher frequencies. This allow us to reduce the bottlenecks that we could face due to the logistic bottlenecks. This means that when it come to risk management, we are very valuable for our customers. We have more than 80% of our sales concentrated in the growing sectors, where we have a strong customer portfolio. We also engage with printing and writing customers, where we help them to migrate to other sectors which are more profitable, thanks to our technical advice, but also thanks to our special products portfolio.
All that what we have commented before has allowed to develop special products under the brand name of Ence Advanced. These sales represented, in 2021, 16% and will continuously increasing, as we will talk later. As you can see, we have achieved a very relevant growth in the ENCE Advanced portfolio, both in volume and in product lines. We seek three main characteristics. First, to improve our customer cost. Our customers can reduce their cost because they save energy, because they can substitute the more expensive long fiber, and because they can increase their paper machines' productivity. Second, we can generate sustainability thanks to our products. We have been pioneers in developing the first new carbon neutral pulp, the first company that we have obtained the environmental product declaration certified in the market.
Finally, these products allow to improve the technical characteristics of the final products, like porosity, strength, or even the printability of those products. As you can see, we have been launching new products in a consistent way during the last three years at a growth of more than 70%. Let me say a few words about them. Powercell is one of the core of our catalog. In fact, it's the most successful product that we have. Powercell can substitute long fiber. We can achieve the same strength as softwood while maintaining the softness of the hardwood. We can capture value from the market. Softwood is the last 10 years an average of $100 more expensive than hardwood. Furthermore, our clients can reduce the electrical energy consumption. Naturcell is a key product to reduce the carbon footprint.
Naturcell is used to substitute plastics, and is used in the packaging application. We've seen also a trend regarding the potential of application of unbleached pulp into tissue applications. Closecell is a product that, thanks to its low porosity, can substitute plastic films, and is key in order to improve the carbon footprint of our customers. In 2027, we aim to increase our special products portfolio to 40% of our sales, which will represent 400,000 tons of pulp. Sales increase in this range will allow ENCE to increase our relationship with our clients, to increase the various entries, and also to capture value from the market. Within the Navia Excelente project, we aim to increase the Navia’s mill with three main initiatives previously outlined by Ignacio. The first, differentiated product strategy.
Due to the success of these products, we've planned to increase the capacity that we have to produce them. We will implement a series of improvements to gain in flexibility and also to gain in efficiency in our pulp mill in Navia. We will invest EUR 15 million to modify the woodyard, to modify the cooking system, and will allow us to produce more than 400,000 tons in 2027. It will allow us to capture an additional margin of EUR 20 per ton, thanks to the characteristics of these differentiated products. This in together with our technical support and advice, provides us a unique position in comparison to our competitors. Second, Project Fluff. The pulp is used in absorbent products like diapers or feminine hygiene products, adult incontinence products, even in medical pads or airlaid applications.
The demand of pulp will increase due to the penetration in developing market as well as the increase of our life expectancy. Trend towards greater sustainability will also boost the demand of fluff because we will substitute the polymers that are used nowadays in absorbent products. Currently, 90% of the fluff is imported from USA and Canada. 80% of the market is concentrated in only three suppliers. ENCE will produce fluff using eucalyptus pulp and will be a great option for our customers to diversify their sourcing. The usage of eucalyptus will reduce the carbon footprint of our products and we could improve the transformation efficiency using eucalyptus instead of pine.
Imagine you are the director of purchasing of a diapers brand, and you could have the possibility to buy the fluff from ENCE, produced locally in Europe, using local wood from the northwest of Spain, with greater softness, with lower carbon footprint. This project has a tremendous value. The first project will require an investment of EUR 30 million, and we can reach a production of 100,000 tons per year, leaving us an extra margin of EUR 40 per ton. The startup of this project is scheduled by 2024. We are ready to enter into contracts as we have all the permits, and we have all the developing engineering. We have all the engineering and the technology solution already defined. Decarbonization through lignin valorization, which is our last initiative in order to enhance Navia in the Navia Excelente project.
Wood is mainly composed of cellulose and lignin. Nowadays, we use lignin in our recovery boiler in order to provide 95% of our energy needs. We are using only 5% of fuel and gas in our lime kilns. Thanks to this project, we will completely substitute this fuel or gas for pure lignin. We will separate the lignin, and we will obtain a pure renewable fuel that we can burn in our lime kiln. Thanks to this project, we can also obtain other value products from the lignin, as we've done several R&D projects on this field. This usage of lignin in our lime kiln would allow us to reduce 50,000 tons of CO2 emissions every year.
It requires an investment of EUR 60 million and will allow us also to increase our capacity production to 30,000 tons because we will then debottleneck the recovery boiler. This gain in efficiency will allow us to reduce our cash cost in EUR 5 per ton. We have already requested all the permits, and we expected to finalize engineering this year. The expected start of this project is in 2024. This ends my part of the presentation. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Jordi. Now is the turn of Marc Gómez, the CEO of our renewable business, Magnon Green Energy, who will explain our competitive position and growth plans for the business. Your turn, Marc.
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone, depending on where you're attending this online event. I have the honor to lead Magnon Green Energy, the renewable business of ENCE Group. I would like to share with all of you today the unique and exciting opportunity that we have in the market around the renewable energy in the next years. I call it a journey that brings us to a decarbonized ecosystem, a decarbonized society, in the following years, the next years. If you have to keep in mind just one message from my presentation, only one takeaway, it is very simple and the next one. As Ignacio was stating before, the Spanish market, the Spanish renewable market is expected to double by 2030. It's a market growth driven by two main trends.
The first one is our commitment as a society towards that decarbonized and sustainable future. The second one, the technologies that allows us to make that transition to that decarbonized energy ecosystem. Technologies like solar or biomass technologies, where Magnon has a very strong and deep expertise and experience we've got over the last years. Those technologies are expected to grow even faster than the average of the market with 2x, 2.3x, respectively. The market is not the limit. The question is how we are going to deliver the growth over the next years. We are going to do it with a very simple strategy, combining three main elements. The first one is continue delivering the excellent results from our best-in-class operations in our biomass plants.
The second one is by delivering and executing our strong pipeline, both in biomass and photovoltaic. The third one is growing throughout the new opportunities in the energy market, opportunities around energy management, energy storage, in the heating industry, heating industrial heat, by biofuels, biogas. Any strategy needs to be built up from a very solid foundations, very strong pillars. That, in our case, is our actual operations. We are d elivering EUR 50 million-EUR 70 million EBITDA result from our existing operations, our biomass, operating in a regulated business. This is done throughout our 266 MW existing biomass plants. That EUR 50 million-EUR 70 million euros are built up from, first of all, by at the annual return secured at EUR 41 million, 7.4% IRR operating in that regulated market.
Furthermore, we have an additional EBITDA between EUR 10 million and EUR 30 million coming out from the regulated sales price bands. We can have even additional in cash inflow from the difference between the market price of the energy and its regulated price, what we call the regulatory collar. This is the foundation of our strategy, our actual perimeter. We were talking also about the growth. A growth coming from developing and deploying our pipeline. A pipeline that we are focusing on in biomass through our three projects that we are working very actively.
In fact, we are not just thinking about the next auction, we are thinking about the three next auctions that are established by a law in the Spanish market, which allows really to play with those projects in a very prudent way and evaluating all different scenarios in a very uncertain moment, and securing the profit and the benefits of our shareholders. We are not in a hurry. We have a strong experience in building up that kind of biomass plant, and we are evaluating all the different elements which could be where could be the main or the best moment to really invest, and do it through the next three auctions. About the solar business. Solar will be, and it is, a very strong and relevant market for Magnon.
We are already developing 373 MW that are going to be ready to build status, reach ready to build status from the first plant, the first plants beginning end of this year and going throughout the rest of the years up to first quarter of 2024. We are already working also in another 300 more megawatts at early stage. I think at this point of time, I don't think I don't need to convince anyone about the future of the energy will be green. What I think it's also very important, and we are forgetting very often, is that a part of that, the energy needs to be manageable. It's to be dispatchable. This puts us in a very sweet position, and it's because what others call the future, we call it the present.
The biomass energy is manageable by definition. It's a great support for the system and giving it stability. This is the present. We are already working, thanks to that capability, in secondary and tertiary regulation of our biomass plants, which allows us to take the best and get the best from our plants, optimize our operations, and get the most of our plants. We were talking about other opportunities, and one of them is energy storage. With the massive deployment of the renewable energy into the mix, in the Spanish mix, I mean, with the introduction of more and more solar and wind energy, we need more capacity, more storage solutions in the grid.
Magnon is analyzing several projects, several technologies that could be molten salts, batteries, or gas-compressed air to install it in our own facilities and give that support to the grid, but also exploring the opportunities in the grid on the in the market. We were also talking about industrial heating. I mean, that's another opportunity we are discussing with a lot of customers. Not just because the actual prices, but even before the rally of the prices on the gas. I mean, just because with that regular prices and the cost of the CO2, I mean, it is completely feasible to really change the actual heating done by gas and use the biomass, which is giving us the opportunity to really be independent from that fossil solutions.
On the field of biogas and biofuels, we are also exploring the solutions, and we are already putting in place some projects for that kind of solutions. We are already starting to discuss about projects on that. I mean, we are very proud also that some large oil and gas companies are approaching us to really develop also that kind of businesses together because they recognize us as experts in that field, in biomass, but also in converting biomass in gas and biofuels. All in all, just talking about energy management, and as I stated in the slide, this will bring us another extra EUR 5 million more on the bottom line annually just because that optimal solution. Just let me recap on my presentation.
If you have to remind just one thing from my message, it is that the market is not the limit, and that we are going to deliver the growth based on three main elements. The first one, by keeping delivering the excellent results from our current operations in Navia, our best-in-class operations. The second, growing through the biomass and photovoltaic pipeline. Do it in a very prudent way, understanding the situation and always protecting the shareholder value. The third one, it is developing and getting the opportunities the market offers around energy storage, energy solutions management solutions, and all related to the bioeconomy. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Marc. Now is the turn again of our CFO and Chief Forestry Officer, Mr. Alfredo Avello, who will explain our financial outlook with more detail. Your turn, Alfredo.
Thank you, Alberto. Thank you, Marc. Despite the pandemic, ENCE has maintained a very solid and a strong balance sheet and very prudent leverage. In the pulp business, we follow investment-grade levered ratios of 2.5x at our average cycle prices. While in the energy business, we meet up to 5x due to its high predictability and regulated nature.
In the pulp business, we use no covenant policy. We enjoy a net cash position, and we have a fully undrawn EUR 130 million RCF. Also, in the renewable energy business, we benefit from very comfortable and long-term maturities. Both businesses have a ring-fenced structure, no recourse one to the other, and they hold several green labels from Standard & Poor's on sustainability. It is important to say that out of the total gross debt of both businesses, only EUR 25 million are linked to floating rates. All the rest is linked to fixed rate, therefore protecting our financial cost in the current inflationary scenario. The strong financial position and prudent leverage are key pillars for the development of our strategic plan. Let me talk about the main KPIs of our financial outlook prior to entering into it. Regarding the pulp price, we are following the analyst consensus.
As you know, prices in Europe are gross, to which we apply a discount that is different depending on the year. Currently, it's 36%, and when we apply that discount, we get to our net price. Well, that is the KPI to follow because that is the figure that will mark our margins. As you can see in the graph, average net prices of the last 10 years has been $605 per ton. The analyst consensus expresses that for the following years, we should be at those same level. Well, these are the levels we're using in our financial outlook. Regarding the energy price, we think that we need to be real prudent in the current situation. We're modeling EUR 48 of energy price starting first of April this year, and in the whole financial outlook.
Also remember that we are not subject to merchant risk. All our plants are regulated. In the pulp business, we are self-sufficient. We produce as much energy as the one that we need, and we basically have a feed-in tariff as a margin on top of that netted position. Regarding our renewable energy business, you have two groups of plants. One of them, the last ones, Puertollano 50 and Úbeda 46, they enjoy from a regulated floor price, which currently is EUR 43, but they do not have a cap price. Every single euro the energy price increases, it will be additional cash inflow during the rest of the financial outlook. Just as a reference, every EUR 10 this energy price increases, you will get EUR 36 million additional in the financial outlook.
Regarding the others, they do have a floor price and a cap price, but we do sell at the market price. So the price, if the pulp price increases, we'll cash in those inflows in that year. They will be anticipated inflows. It is like if we get paid the inflows of the following years. We have them in our pocket, and we can use them for the development of our strategic plan. Having said that, as we said, we need to be prudent, and we are not including any cash inflow on top of those 48. We're not including any cash inflow from the regulatory collar starting 1st January , 2022. Let's go now to our strategy.
Our core strategy plan is Navia Excelente, my colleague Jordi has explained to us before, which means the implementations in the pulp business of the three projects explained, he talked about, plus the construction of two greenfield biomass plants in the renewable energy project. In energy business in Magnon. Regarding our cash cost, there are two things I would like to remark. Number one, all cash components needed to produce the pulp in our business are included in our cash cost, including the wood, no matter whether it comes from our own plantations or the market. This is something that you need to take into account when comparing our cash cost with some other peers of the market. The prudent view on the energy prices of 48 EUR is marking the cash contribution of our Navia 37 biomass plant in Navia.
This means that if we have a higher energy price, we'll have a lower cash cost. Just as a reference, every EUR 10 the pulp price is higher, you will have a reduction of EUR 2.5 per ton in the cash cost. Our CapEx program has been built taking into account that the future can change. Maybe in one, two, three year time, whenever we are implementing and working on these projects, macroeconomies have changed, market conditions have changed. We have built a CapEx program which is flexible. The three projects are independent, and we have the availability to implement them whenever we think is the best time.
I said, taking into account everything we have said until now, in this scenario. We're showing a strong free cash flow, average free cash flow of EUR 120 million during the whole financial outlook. There's something that is not in our hands. We do not have the certainty of the continuation of Pontevedra. We need to wait for the Supreme Court to rule. Well, even if we need to close Pontevedra, we can implement Navia Excelente. Has nothing to do with Pontevedra. It's not linked to it. We can continue with these projects, and we can also build the two new greenfield biomass plants.
Assuming we need to close Pontevedra, to shut down Pontevedra, at the end of the 2023 year, we'll stabilize our production around 660,000 tons, and we'll reduce the cash cost down to EUR 365. Please note that in this scenario, we will benefit from a better wood mix. This will mean that we'll be able to have higher quantities of Eucalyptus globulus, and that will result in the increase of production of around 30,000 tons. We will be able to optimize our discounts on the selling of our pulp, because we'll be able to choose those clients with lower discount levels. Note that in this scenario, compared with the previous one, there's an additional EUR 72 million of outflow.
This is the cash outflow that we need to pay if we need to shut down Pontevedra. Also remember that back in 2022, we registered a EUR 200 million provision in order to take into account that we might need to shut down Pontevedra this year-end. Moreover, if we are obliged to shut down Pontevedra, we will increase the production at Navia. Navia's land is ours and is not subject to any concession limit. In this case, we have two projects. Number one, we can use the main equipment from the Pontevedra biomill and build a new BHKP line in Navia. It will be around 100,000 tons, additional tons of BHKP. We'll need a CapEx of around EUR 100 million.
It will reduce the cash cost by EUR 10, and we'll add a free cash flow of EUR 15 million. Also, we can implement the Navia 340 project, which you know is the construction of a new swing line in Navia. It will produce either 340,000 tons of BHKP pulp or 200,000 tons of dissolving pulp. It will reduce the cash cost by EUR 15 per ton, and it will add around EUR 45 million of free cash flow to the company. We are working on the engineering of both projects in order to have them fully ready to whenever we have the outcome of the Pontevedra ruling from the Supreme Court, and we will decide which project to implement, depending, among other things, on the conditions of such ruling.
Let me summarize the main ideas of this financial outlook. Number one, we are using analyst consensus for the pulp price. We're being very prudent on the pulp price. We're using EUR 48, starting first of April this year, and during the whole financial period. We are not taking into account any cash inflow coming from the regulatory collar. Our strategic plan is Navia Excelente, which means the implementation of these three projects plus the construction of two new greenfield biomass plants. Our CapEx program is flexible and could be adapted to whatever environment we are in. In case of any adverse scenario in which we need to shut down Pontevedra, we will increase the production in Navia, either through Navia 100 or Navia 340. These projects, together with Navia Excelente, will fully offset the free cash flow contribution of Pontevedra.
Let me please now give the word back to our CEO, Ignacio Colmenares. Thank you.
Thank you, Alfredo. Now is the turn of our Chairman, Mr. Ignacio de Colmenares, for his closing remarks. Please, Ignacio.
Thank you, Alberto. Thank you, Alfredo. Regarding the issue of the zoning problems in Pontevedra, we are more optimistic. We have no more hedges in place, sorry, in pulp or in electricity. We have a fantastic business plan, Navia Excelente, to keep 100% of the EBITDA Pontevedra is giving to us today, even in case we lose on the Supreme Court. We prefer, at the end, Navia 100,000 tons is more prudent. We don't see disruption of our supply chain due to the war today. However, ENCE has strong competitive advantages, more important than even today, local procurement of wood and biomass, self-sufficient in energy, a full range of special products for substituting plastic and softwood. We are in growing markets. We produce dispatchable green energy. We have a strong balance sheet with almost no debt. We have a good real corporate governance.
In pulp, we are market leaders in sustainability worldwide. The objective of today has been to give you insight into our business strategy and specific modeling. It is evident we are a prudently managed cash-rich business. We are cautious about taking on debt, even though the option is available to us within our dividend policy. Our modeling uses the analyst forecast for pulp prices, very similar to the average of the last 15 years, and our prudent guidance for production of pulp and energy and for cash cost of pulp and energy. Despite significant CapEx and these prudent guidances, we still increase our net cash position positively year by year. Our shareholders will benefit from the new dividend policy. The future is bright for Ence. We believe that sustainability equals to competitiveness. Ladies and gentlemen, it has been a pleasure speaking to you today.
Now we are open in five minutes to the Q&A. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Ignacio. The Q&A session will start in five minutes. If you want to ask a question, please click on the tab enabled for it in the webcast. Sorry. It will take you to a Zoom page. Before making the question, please make sure that you mute the webcast and that your camera and your micro are on. You will be allowed to make as many questions as you may have. However, we kindly ask you to ask only one question at a time instead of listing multiple questions to our speakers. That's all. See you in five minutes. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. The first question comes from Gonzalo de Cueto from Exane. Gonzalo, please go ahead.
Hello. Good afternoon. Can you hear me, Alberto?
Yes.
Fantastic. Good afternoon, and thank you for the presentation and thank you also for taking my questions. I have three from my side. The first one, of course, is regarding the geopolitical crisis. There are early reports of Russian pulp makers struggling to get chemical raw materials from Western suppliers. What do you think about this? Could we see Russian pulp output out of the market in the coming months? That would be the first one. The second one will be-
Only-
Regarding the transaction with Naturgy.
Excuse me, Gonzalo.
Yes.
Only one question at a time, please.
Okay. Sorry.
Good afternoon, Gonzalo. Thank you for your question. Well,
Thank you.
This war may affect the Russian production of pulp, but Russia is not really important worldwide in pulp. Russia is exporting some small volumes to China. Those volumes can be substituted easily from elsewhere. What we see as a risk is that Russia exports to Finland the equivalent of 2 million tons of hardwood pulp in form of logs and chips, and that may cause a problem in Scandinavia. I think that it's very difficult to predict what can happen with the war. It's only now, I think, 20 days it started. We all hope it will finish soon, but it's difficult to predict what is going to happen. In any case, China is not a relevant player in pulp. Thank you, Gonzalo.
Thank you very much, Ignacio. My second question would be on the potential investment in Navia of 100,000 tons of pulp. I mean, how long, I mean, once you made the decision and go ahead with investment, how long will it take to put that capacity in the market, and what is the potential equities return that you are foreseeing with that investment?
Thank you, Gonzalo. Well, Navia Excelente has two phases. The first phase, as we explained, is right now the fluff. After the decarbonization, the special products increase. Then we will know what happens with Pontevedra if we win at the Supreme Court or we lose. If we win at the Supreme Court, nothing else would happen in Navia. We will continue in Pontevedra, and we will invest in Pontevedra. In case we lose, we will increase the capacity of Navia by 100,000 tons. We prefer this project to Navia 340. It is smaller. What is important is that all the projects of Navia Excelente plus Navia 100,000 tons equals to the free cash flow or EBITDA of Pontevedra. Then we will be even losing at the Supreme Court like we are today in terms of free cash flow.
Navia 340 is a fantastic project. It has a slightly higher IRR than Navia 100. Both are above 15% IRR, which is our target, but it is EUR 450 million. Today, on this world we are living, the COVID, the war, it's risky to sign a commitment for EUR 450 million, even if the project is good. That's why we prefer Navia 100. In 2 years' time, when we know what happens with Pontevedra, we will take the final decision. Thank you, Gonzalo.
Okay. Very good. Thank you, Ignacio. Very clear. The last one is related to the energy business. First of all, regarding the transaction with Naturgy, has there been any update on the permitting of those 373 MW to expect something this year, or it's going to be more in 2023 or in 2024? Looking at your 300 MW pipeline, is there any specific target or number that you have in mind, in terms of MW that you would like to rotate either this year or in 2023?
Thank you, Gonzalo. Regarding the permitting of the pipeline, it's going on. Today, we expect that we are going to be able to cash in a part of it at the end of this year, another part during 2023, and finally at the beginning of 2024. No news so far. Regarding the other 300 MW in early stage, well, we are developing it, and we will decide what to do in the future. Why have we decided in December last year to sell to Naturgy the first 340 MW? Well, because at the prices of the PPA at that time and the prices of the EPC contract of PV at that time, the IRR with our low debt of 60% on the project was just 5%, and it is below the 8%. Naturgy was paying 72...
EUR 662 million, which is better for our shareholders than developing at 5% IRR, which is not interesting with our cost of capital. What are we going to do in the future? We don't know. Let's develop and let's take the decision in a couple of years. Who knows what is going to be the prices of the PPA, and who knows what is going to be the prices of the EPC contracts for PV. But in any case, we will make value for our shareholders. Thank you, Gonzalo.
Thank you, Ignacio. That will be all from my side.
Thank you, Gonzalo. The next question comes from José Tamayo from GVC Gaesco. José, please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Hello?
We do hear you.
We can hear you.
The second question is yet to answer because it was about asset rotation and renewables. The first one is about energy also. I think that is 1 year and a half that we sold, ENCE sold a minority stake in ENCE Energía, and today we have a new brand name, Magnon. The press release, if I remember properly, it says that we are trying to have much more visibility in the industry of energy. Sometimes, as you know, in the financial sector, full visibility, and of course full valuation, it ends only when the company is listed. My question it is, after this new brand name, do we have any plan for a possible spin off of the company?
Well, we want to grow Magnon, and I let now Marc to explain to you how we are going to double the EBITDA of Magnon in the next years. Yes, we may split the company off, but not before the company is at EUR 100 million EBITDA. ENCE has the majority, and ENCE wants to keep the majority of the company, then we need a larger EBITDA in order to keep that and make value. Marc, why don't you explain how we are going to grow in Magnon?
Thanks for the question. Really the new branding is just what Ignacio was saying, just reinforcing, giving visibility, giving their own personality under the specific market with this, which is the energy, which needs also that kind of response. I mean, as I was explaining, I mean, this is a story about growth. It is a story about growth from very solid foundation, from our current perimeter, and then growing through the market opportunities that we have with the double size of the market in the following years, in the next years. I mean, we are going to growth on the energy storage, we are going to grow on managing even better the energy, and we are going to grow through industrial heating, for example, we are going to grow through biofuels, biogas.
On those projects, we are already working, and we are working on our end also. We are working also with corporations and with partners, which allows us to learn and also to introduce in that market, always putting ourselves in the value chain of the biofuels on a very high position on the value chain and very close to the consumers. This is about a story about growth, and that's exactly what we are going to do and what we are committed to. That's the only way to really double the profitability of the company.
Thank you, Marc.
Thank you.
Thank you, José.
The next question comes from Jaime Escribano. Sorry, from Pablo de Renteria from Kepler. Pablo, please go ahead.
Good afternoon all. Do you hear me?
We do.
Yes, we do, Pablo.
We do hear you.
Oh, okay. Perfect. Thank you for the presentation. I have just one question, if I may. What measures do you expect from the government to reduce the energy price and how this could affect your energy business? Many thanks.
Well, Pablo, we have no idea what the government is going to do. The government will, for sure, reduce the price of the energy. They are contemplating different measures, and I think we will know something else at the end of the month. What is very important is that on the model we have shared with you, we have a price of the energy from April the first at 48 EUR/MWh. An average price of the energy in the full year of 100 EUR/MWh. The collar we have already generated, roughly EUR 50 million on the first quarter, is not in our financial statements by prudency. What means that anything that the government decides will be better than what you have in our model. Thank you very much, Pablo.
Many thanks, Ignacio.
Thank you, Pablo. The next question comes from Edward Bottomley, from Berenberg. Edward, please go ahead.
Hello, and thank you for your time. I have a few questions. What is the thinking behind using EUR 48 per megawatt-hour, the energy price? And do you expect this to be enforced for longer than just the end of 2022? You're expecting this regulation from the government to just be for the rest of this year or for the rest of time?
No, Edward, it's just a question of prudence. Forty eight is the medium of the range allowed by the regulator today. We have to take the minimum price by prudence.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
In your financial projections, assuming Pontevedra is closed, when would you expect production to cease and how would the EUR 72 million of dismantling costs be phased? Would that be over 2023 and 2024 or how exactly?
Well, in our projections, Pontevedra stops production at the end of 2023 and progressively on the second half of the year. Again, it is prudent. Let's say that we lose in the Supreme Court. We will lose probably, or we will win. We will know something from the Supreme Court by the end of this year. The Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the procedures of the Pontevedra cases have said that they don't need us to shut down immediately. They just want us to shut down. We will probably make an agreement and close in a certain reasonable period of time. Again, by prudence in our statements and in the model we have shared with you today, we are shutting down Pontevedra at the end of 2023.
In terms of the dismantling costs, would that be then in 2024, for example?
Well, by prudence, we will say that the dismantling cost will be 12 months after shutting down.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you very much, Edward.
I was very interested to hear that your forest removed 600,000 tons of CO2 annually. Is there a way for you to get any financial benefits from this, say, through the EU carbon permit scheme?
Well, we are working on that with our forest assets, mainly on the south of Spain, because we are managing there close to 50,000 hectares. We have nominated a new responsible for this business, and we have just started, but we are quite positive. It's not going to be a tremendous business, but it's going to be money on top of the EUR 8 million of EBITDA our forest assets are giving us every year. We are just starting, Edward.
Okay. Last question from me. Am I correct in thinking that the first tender for biomass in Spain will be held on the 6th of April? Are you expecting to win one of these slots? If so, should we anticipate the return on operation to be in line with the latest biomass plants?
Well, again, prudency. We expect now the auction this year to be before summer. We believe today that it will be a crazy idea to put a fixed price on the bid. We have no idea of the cost of the CapEx. Today in Europe, you have plenty of projects with EPC projects with 40% and 60% higher cost because of what is happening with the raw materials. We have a structure of EPC contractors in Spain who is weaker than a couple of years ago, and we want to sign a reliable contract with a reliable partner. We have, on top of that, uncertainties regarding the regulation of the by-products on the agriculture. Today, with the information I have, I would say you, well, we may go to the auction, but with a price who I'm pretty sure will not be attractive.
I think today is more clever to wait for the auction, which by regulation is going to be next year. I think that by next year, in 12 months' time, we will know better the prices of the materials for an EPC contract, we will know better the financial situation of the EPC contractor, and we will have full understanding of the regulation in the bioagricultural by-products. When we've been growing in energy since 2011, we've grown prudently. We have not done a single failure in any project, and we don't want to do a single failure. You have to understand that we have the balance sheet we have, and the biomass power plant costs at least EUR 125 million. Today, maybe more on the range of EUR 145 million, and we cannot lose this money. Then, prudence.
We will have by law-
Okay. Thank you very much.
... new auction next year, and I think we will be more prepared to go to this auction. Thank you.
Thank you, Edward. The next question comes from Alvaro Lenze from Alantra. Alvaro, please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the presentation. The first question would be on the cash costs. It would seem that the EUR 450 per ton that you are guiding is a bit higher than the previous guidance. I wanted to know whether this is because you're resorting to a larger extent to wood imports or whether this is reflecting higher logistics costs from the conflict in Ukraine and Russia.
I maybe misunderstood your question, Alvaro. We don't use gas. We have switched gas. All the gas we used to use in Navia, we have switched to other fuels. Since late December, we are not using at all gas.
That's right. Okay. What would explain the increase in the guidance for cash costs for this year?
No, no. The increase in the guidance of cash cost comes from the fact that we have put in the model from April 1st, a price of the energy of 48 EUR per MWh. That diminishes the EBITDA margin of our 37-MW biomass power plant in Navia, which is reducing our cash costs. As with this new price, the EBITDA of this biomass power plant in Navia is lower, it increased the cash cost in our pulp business. It only comes from this decrease of the price of the energy which increased our cash cost because we have less profits in Navia 37-MW biomass power plant.
Okay, perfect. My second question would be on your forestry asset strategy, whether you are planning to increase your in-house sourcing or whether you are probably going to continue to rely on third parties. Also on the previous line, if I recall correctly, you talked about diversifying and incorporating other species of wood, including pine and so on, whether that's still the case or whether you have abandoned that pathway.
No, no, the strategy continues. Alfredo can explain what number of hectares we are planting every year and how much we are increasing our hectares per year at the north. Jordi can explain how we are diversifying in wood species. Alfredo.
Yes, Álvaro. We are currently harvesting around 400,000 tons of wood from our plantations. In the north, this is a fallback of what we are supporting the sourcing of our pulp biomills, and the south is basically producing pulp wood for third parties. We are increasing by around 600 hectares-1,000 h ectares per year. The idea is to keep on being a fallback, a buffer for the biomills business in the future. Regarding the species, it's just our nursery a nd clones.
Jordi.
Yeah. Regarding our strategy in order to diversify our wood resources, yeah, in fact, we are using pine to produce pulp. We are using pine for our biomass plants located in our cellulose business. We are following our strategy. We have also diversify into using E. nitens, and also we are using E. regnans. This portfolio of wood allow us also to develop special products. We take advantages of the characteristic of this wood in order also to provide other quality into our pulp, and so we can offer these characteristics into our customers.
Álvaro, our strategy is very simple, to be able to buy locally all the wood we need. For that, we need to diversify in any kind of wood who is growing surrounding our pulp business, and to have a full range of products in pulp in order to be able to sell at a short distance. Local sourcing, local market. Diversification. Thank you, Álvaro.
Perfect. Maybe the last question will be a follow-up on the strategy on energy. I understand the asset rotation in a context in which you were able to achieve a higher, you know, rate of return by selling the asset than developing it organically. Stepping aside from that financial side, from a strategic standpoint, if you want to really make this a big business, the big question would be why the organic return was not what was probably initially expected when you launched these projects. I don't know if it was due to CapEx inflation or what the reason may be. Whether you expect this to change and whether you can make the products more profitable or sustainable just organically to add size to the energy business. Thanks.
Yeah. You know, Álvaro, we are not an old economy company or an oil company. We are already a renewable company. We don't have to grow. We don't want to grow. We want to make value for our shareholders. A good example was the CSP. The discounted cash flow of the CSP, we were expecting when we sold it, 15 months ago, was 50% of what they pay us. It's very clear, you have to sell. As I told you before, with the prices of the PPA of the energy, with our prudent models of modeling the PV at prudent prices of the energy, and with the actual cost of the EPC contract, we were only making 5% IRR. It makes no sense to make 5% IRR with our work.
It's better to sell if you are paid EUR 62 million. We are growing in energy, but we are growing with financial discipline and with a threshold in the IRR targets, and we want to accomplish those targets. Thank you, Alvaro.
Thank you.
Thank you, Álvaro. The next question comes from Jaime Escribano from Banco Santander. Jaime, please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon. A few questions from my side. The first one regarding the three new projects at Navia, although I know you have provided some information, but just to be on the same page, could you please quantify the incremental EBITDA you expect from these three projects? Also, if you end up doing the 100,000 pulp expansion, how much EBITDA would you expect also on that?
Thank you very much, Jaime. The fluff business will increase EBITDA by EUR 4 million per year, minimum. The increase of differentiated products, which have, as you know, an extra margin today of EUR 20 per ton, will increase the EBITDA by EUR 5 million per year. The decarbonization of Navia, which is to switch from gas to lignin and to debottleneck the recovery boiler and being able to produce 30,000 tons more, will increase the EBITDA by EUR 8 million. All in all, we have EUR 17 million. If we lose on the Pontevedra case on the Supreme Court and we invest EUR 100 million in Navia, 100,000 tons, we will increase EBITDA by EUR 90 million.
If we lose in Pontevedra, we could improve the mix of wood we are buying, and we could improve the mix of pulp we are selling, and that will give us further EUR 4 million. All in that equals to the EUR 40 million EBITDA Pontevedra is giving us today. Thank you very much.
Thank you. A follow-up question on this would be, I'm not sure if another analyst asked, but I didn't hear it. In terms of wood availability, these projects, well, particularly the one of the expansion of 100,000, right? Would that be a problem, or how would you tackle with that?
No, no. It is not a problem because we are only going to execute this project of Navia 100,000 tons in two or three years' time if we lose in Pontevedra. If we lose in Pontevedra, we are going to produce 500,000 tons less of pulp, which means to buy 1.5 million tons less of wood.
Got it.
That is why-
Thank you.
I told you we were going to improve the mix of wood we are buying.
Okay.
Thank you very much, Jaime.
Another question on energy would be, probably because of your answers, maybe you cannot answer it, but I'm going to ask in any case, just in case. You plan to build two biomass plants. The question would be how much CapEx or give us a range. I know that probably with the inflation cost right now, it's difficult, but maybe to have a sense of how much CapEx would you invest and what is the EBITDA that you could get out of these two biomass plants.
Yeah. The problem is that, Jaime, we are going to go to an auction. We are going to be extremely prudent on the auction, but I cannot give you the values today.
Okay.
It will be a terrific advantage to our competitors.
Okay.
Thank you.
Okay. I was expecting that.
Yeah.
Okay, just a final question from my side. Regarding the dividend remuneration, can you anticipate anything or not yet? Just to have an idea of how much could be the dividend yield and what size of remuneration are we talking about, more or less?
Well, you know our new dividend policy. It's very easy. We have a strict financial policy on debt, only 2.5x the normal EBITDA in pulp and 5x the normal EBITDA in energy. Any cash we have in excess of that can be distributed if we don't need for CapEx commitments. You know now the figures of the CapEx commitments. You know, the figures of the EBITDA. You can very easily calculate how much we could distribute. In any case, in 2022, you know that in Spain, by law, we can only do several things. On the first quarter, we could distribute up to 100% of the net profit of the first quarter. According to our policy, we are going to continue doing such on the third and the fourth quarter.
Very good. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Jaime. The next question comes from Manuel Lorente from Mirabaud. Manuel, please go ahead.
Manuel, we cannot hear you.
Manuel, we cannot hear you. Please make sure that you open your microphone.
Can you hear me now?
Yes, we can.
Absolutely.
Okay. Thank you. My first question is for Ignacio, regarding the bridge that you had just stated, associated with the potential recovery of Pontevedra's EUR 40 million EBITDA. If I understand you correctly, you were mentioning that the bridge was a combination of EUR 19 million from the different levers associated to Navia in terms of differentiation of products, fluff and decarbonization. Four million euros in terms of improvement of mix of wood. You were mentioning another EUR 17 million from capacity expansion.
Yes. Roughly is what I said. I said EUR 8 million, the decarbonization, EUR 4 million, the fluff, EUR 5 million of differentiated products. It is EUR 17 million. EUR 4 million, the improvement of the commercial mix of pulp and the commercial mix of wood. At last, if we lose Pontevedra, not if we win Pontevedra, EUR 19 million by increasing 100,000 tonnes the production in Navia. Totally EUR 40 million.
Okay. I see. Those numbers are incorporated in your free cash flow expectations in the sense that when I see at your presentation, I-
Forty-seven.
I see that if you do not lose Pontevedra, you're expecting an average of EUR 120 million of free cash flow on the period 2022-2027, right? On the following slide, you're mentioning that if you do lose Pontevedra, the average of free cash flow on the same periods, it will go down to EUR 103 million.
The capital.
When I see on the left side of that slide, I see no capacity expansion. My question is whether on those free cash flow expectations, ex Pontevedra, you are incorporating or not the 100,000 tons expansion in Navia. Thank you.
Manuel, may I answer you?
Yeah, sure.
Manuel, we have shown two financial outlooks. In the first one, we're using, we're having Navia Excelente and having Pontevedra operating. In the second one, what we are doing is excluding Pontevedra. Maintaining Navia Excelente, including the 4 million of the wood mix and the on the pulp. But remember, please, that you have EUR 72 million from the shutting down of Pontevedra. You don't have Navia 100 there. You just have what I have just said.
Okay.
Okay?
That explains the EUR 15 million or EUR 20 million gap of free cash flow in 2026-2027, no? That you don't have any capacity expansion in Navia.
Yes, sir.
Okay, I see.
You have the cost of this.
Ah-
mantel in Pontevedra.
Okay, I see. Just one more question on the energy business then. I agree that the stance on the capital market day is basis of massive growth ahead on that business. I agree. And that implies a massive growth in volumes going forward. What are your expectations in terms of prices? We are seeing massive competition on that front. Actually, in the last auction, there was a severe compression in terms of price. I believe that at this stage, nobody has doubts regarding volume expectations of the business. What about prices? Because they might condition as well profitability of the business going forward.
Well, that is why we said we have to be prudent. In biomass, well, there is not so furious competition than in PV, for sure. Today is difficult to know the price of the CapEx. What is the price of a biomass power plant today with a huge weight of steel inside and copper inside? Nobody knows. It's very difficult to bid the price. On the PV auctions, well, I think that there is also uncertainty on what are going to be the price of the steel structures on a PV park, what is going to be the cost of the labor on a PV park, and what is going to be the cost of the solution and the PV panels. Today what I see is uncertainty.
I think that what happened, six months ago, will not happen again during this year because of the huge uncertainty. Uncertainty increase prices for sure.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Manuel. We have a written question from an investor who has technical problems, Gianluca Pediconi from MOMentum Alternative Investments. His first question is, Navia 100 project is inevitably an alternative to Pontevedra. Cannot we increase capacity and keep Pontevedra?
Well, it's a question of being prudent. We think that if we win in Pontevedra, we are in a capital-intensive industry. We have not been investing in Pontevedra since the game changed two years ago. We are not going to invest this year, and we will have for sure to invest in Pontevedra in the future. We prefer to concentrate those investments in Pontevedra. Don't forget that Navia 100,000 tons is very cheap in terms of CapEx to the volume we will produce, and has a fantastic yield because Navia 100,000 tons is done with part of the equipment of Pontevedra. If you go to a brand-new mill, pulp line in Navia, it will be much more expensive. Thank you.
Thank you, Ignacio. His second question is regarding the cyclicality of the pulp price. If you can elaborate a little bit about the main drivers of the pulp price.
Well, we are in a cyclical business, no doubt. I think that when we project, we have to take average prices. What has been the average pulp price on the last 15 years? Well, the equivalent to a net price of $600. What has been the minimum? The minimum, $450. The price has been going from $450 to $800, and an average price of $909, sorry, of $600 net price. If we see the industry now, well, the new expansions in Brazil are tremendously competitive, no doubt. The expansions in Chile and in Uruguay are, like they are today, very similar to the Iberian cost.
The cost, marginal cost in China will increase a lot, and the marginal cost of the pulp mills importing wood is going to increase a lot because wood in Latin America is going to be scarcer by the increase of the new pulp projects. All in all, what in the industry we see today, and it's a shared vision, is that this bottom price of $450 is going to be above $500, or is already above $500. At normal prices of the freight rate and normal prices of the gas and the energy. If you elaborate, if we elaborate models, well, we use in our own models, we are not sharing with you, $600 of the net price with stress case who were $450, they are going to be more on the size of $500.
When you think the projections of the independent analyst, well, this $600 net is very similar to what they are saying. Thank you.
Thank you, Ignacio. There is only one final question coming from Alvaro Lence, again from Alantra. Alvaro, please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for allowing me to jump back into the queue. Just a question on the capital allocation. I understand the prudence stance given the very high uncertainty on basically all fronts, and that you do not want to commit that much CapEx to the big expansion on Navia, even if Pontevedra finally does not work out. I wanted to know if that is the case, why not not distribute dividends instead of the recent dividend policy that you have announced. Why not save the cash so that you have more flexibility to engage in these investments, which you yourself have indicated that could potentially have higher IRR than the Navia 100,000 tons project?
I don't-
Thanks.
I really don't understand what you are asking, Álvaro.
The thing is that you have indicated that your preference is the smaller expansion in Navia if Pontevedra does not work out.
Yeah.
Because you do not want to commit as much CapEx to the larger expansion at Navia. My question would be, why not, instead of paying a generous dividend, save that capital and have higher flexibility to engage in the bigger investment if eventually Pontevedra does not work out?
Well, we will see in the future. What is very difficult is to take a decision today. Today our decision is in case we lose, and today, I insist, we are a bit more optimistic than a few months ago. If we lose, we will do Navia 100,000. Why? Our plan, Navia Excelente, is fantastic because it's step-by-step plan, and on a cyclical business, that is excellent. We invest EUR 30 million on the fluff. We invest EUR 60 million on the decarbonization. We invest small amount of money in being able to produce special products in Navia. Then we take the decision. Today, if today we were obliged to take the decision, it's Navia 100,000 tons. Why? Because today we have. We finished last year with EUR 20 million positive cash on the pulp business.
Even so, to sign a contract for EUR 450 million with our size of balance sheet is a bit risky on this uncertain world and on this cyclical industry. Now just dream. Let's say that we are in 2024, and we unfortunately lose in Pontevedra. We have been making a lot of cash in 2022 and 2023. We have a strong net cash position at the pulp business. We have money from the European projects to finance part of the project. Maybe we will go to Navia 340. Today, with the information we have, we think it is more prudent to go to Navia 100,000 tons in case we lose Pontevedra. Today we are more optimistic regarding Pontevedra.
Thank you so much.
Thank you, Álvaro.
There are no more questions.
Well, ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your interest during the last two hours. We are, as always, Alberto Valdés, Alfredo Avello, and myself, open to any meeting you may require in order to go deeper in this information. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you.