Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the earnings presentation for Enagás for the year 2024. As we had announced, we will also be giving you our strategy update for 2025-2030. The relevant documents have been filed with the Stock Exchange authorities this morning and are available on our website, www.enagas.es. Our Chief Executive Officer, Arturo Gonzalo Aizpiri, will be chairing this presentation. With him, we have our Corporate Head of Energy Transition, Natalia Latorre, our CFO, Luis Romero, and from the Corporate Department of Communication, Institutional and Investor Relations, César García, and myself.
The initial presentation will last for about 30 minutes, and then we will have a Q&A. You'll be able to ask your questions directly or in writing through our platform. We'll attempt to answer those questions in as much detail as possible. Thank you very much, and I'm going to give the floor to our CEO, Arturo Gonzalo Aizpiri.
Thank you very much. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for following this earnings presentation. Welcome. As we announced, alongside the full year 2024 earnings presentation, today we're also going to present our strategy update for 2025-2030. Because since we presented our strategy plan in July of 2022, the environment has changed, and now, two and a half years later, it seems an ideal time to take stock and update our vision and our goals. I will start my talk with the milestones of 2024, the results of the year, and our targets for 2025, and then I will discuss how the strategy plan is rolling out.
I'll present the strategic update for 2025-2030 with its financial projections, and I will wrap up with some highlights about our ESG commitments and a few conclusions. 2024 has been a landmark year for the future of Enagás. In these 12 months, we have reached highly relevant milestones, cleared out key uncertainties, and adopted the decisions we needed to get the company ready for a new growth spurt, driven above all by hydrogen. To do that, a year ago, we restructured our equity, adopting a sustainable payout policy more closely aligned to that of our peers.
We also sold our stake in Tallgrass Energy, which enabled us to bring down our net debt and enhance the company's risk profile. As the rating agencies have confirmed, both Standard and Poor's and Fitch notched up Enagás's rating to BBB plus. What's more, ICSID arbitration found for Enagás in the proceedings on the gas pipeline investment in southern Peru, GSP. Although the amount awarded is smaller than expected, it puts an end to over seven years of hearings and clearly showing Enagás's management to have been correct. Moreover, it has eliminated uncertainty over repatriating dividends from our Peruvian company, Transportadora de Gas de Perú.
For prudential reasons, our accounts do not take into account other potentially better outcomes from arbitration, including our material error rectification request for a total of $94 million, which has already been filed with the ICSID, and an additional $230 million for guarantees, which could be recovered following ICSID arbitration over the GSP bankruptcy proceedings. We have already informed the Peruvian government that we are willing to reach an amicable solution regarding the enforcement of the award.
As I said before, these milestones leave the company in an excellent position to achieve more growth in the future. In 2024, the Spanish gas system reported a 100% supply guarantee and availability, and it also demonstrated its resilience in the face of adverse extreme climate crises, such as the terrible high-intensity storms and floods that hit parts of Spain, which showed just how important it is to incorporate in company risk maps the impacts of climate change. Although total demand went down in 2024 in line with the rest of Europe, gas infrastructure and natural gas in particular have once again proven to be vital for Spain's industry in 2024, where demand grew 4.2% and to guarantee the electricity supply with record demand peaking as they did on December 11th.
Since the main object of today's event is to present our 2025-2030 strategy update, I will just briefly summarize our 2024 performance. After tax profit without one-offs in 2024 was EUR 310.1 million. That's 3.2% higher than that in 2023 and above our guidance. Including one-offs from asset rotation and the accounting impact of capital losses from the GSP award, ATP stood at EUR 299.3 million, which means streamlining our P&L in order to make our strategic projects and our payout policy more robust now and for the future. Our EBITDA went up to EUR 700.7 million, also above our target.
Efficiency in operating expenses and the excellent performance of our investee companies, as well as better financial income returns, have been vital in achieving these results. We have a very sound and prudent debt structure with over 80% at fixed rate. The sale of our Tallgrass Energy stake has enabled us to reduce our net debt by 28% and shore up our financial structure with an excellent liquidity position of EUR 3.25 billion. What's more, in 2024, we've been able to maintain our leadership in sustainability in achieving our decarbonization targets. We have cut our CO2 emissions by 22.5%, more than our original target, and bringing us ever closer to becoming a net zero company by 2040.
On the basis of figures I've just shared, today we are announcing our targets for this year, 2025, to obtain an after-tax profit of approximately € 265 million, to close the year with net debt at a similar level to that of 2024, at around € 2.4 billion, and an EBITDA of around € 670 million, and to keep our funds over net debt ratio above 15% in line with our BBB plus credit rating, and to remunerate our shareholders with a dividend of € 1 per share. I will now describe progress on the implementation of our strategy plan, which we presented in July of 2022 in response to changing circumstances in Europe after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Since then, we have taken all the steps we had planned in its execution, exceeding our own expectations. In these two and a half years, we've achieved very relevant milestones along the three main lines of this plan, which I'll briefly remind you of. First was supply security in Spain and Europe. We have made a significant contribution to that objective thanks to the extremely high flexibility of our robust Spanish infrastructure network. Managing our infrastructure has generated savings of around EUR 10 billion in the national Spanish energy bill due to lower prices than elsewhere in Europe between 2022 and 2024.
During this period, there has been a significant recovery of industrial demand, which grew 8.1%. Also, we have consolidated our role in the strategic delivery of LNG to Europe with 22 supply sources between 2022 and 2024 and 177.6 terawatt-hour re-exported. Regasification plants have played a key role in this. We currently have about 2,200 LNG offloading slots contracted and about 1,000 loading slots up to 2022, a clear demonstration of the long-term interest of power utilities in the Spanish gas system. In order to focus on Spain and Europe, we have moved forward with our asset rotation policy with actions you've already been informed of and which you can see in the presentation.
As for the second line of our strategy plan, we have exercised very strict controls of our financial and operating expenses. The latter have only risen by 1%, and that in a high-inflation environment. Moreover, our net financial expenses have considerably improved, dropping 34% in the period. The third line is that of green hydrogen and renewable molecules, and I will speak about it in more detail since that is really the core of our strategy update. Fi rst, I'm going to dwell into the key role that gas infrastructures, natural gas infrastructures, have and will continue to have in this context in which strategic autonomy and competitiveness are an increasing priority for Europe.
Gas infrastructures are going to be crucial for the energy transition for three main reasons. Firstly, because of the importance of energy sovereignty given geopolitical uncertainties and the reconfiguration of global LNG flows triggered by the Ukraine war. Secondly, because of the critical backup that combined cycle plants provide to the electricity grid since electricity demand peaks will become ever greater due to the increasing contribution of intermittent renewable energy generation to the mix and the decommissioning of nuclear power, as well as the increase in installed capacity of data centers consuming up to 2,500 megawatts by 2030, according to the Spanish government's AI strategy.
Also, the consumption of gas power will become even greater with the penetration of green molecules, which means we will require high-capacity infrastructure to handle increasing volumes in the case of LNG plants, as well as contributing to Europe's supply security. They will also play new roles in the power transition, including, for example, driving decarbonization of maritime transport. T here, Spain and Enagás will play a very relevant role making a differential contribution. Spanish regasification plants account for about 30% of the EU's total regasification capacity and store 40% of Europe's LNG.
In Enagás, we have achieved a nine-fold increase in bunkering from our terminals since 2022, and our country is pioneering the supply of bio-LNG following the certification of the plants in Huelva and Barcelona. Let me now move into the third line of our plan, renewable hydrogen and other molecules for decarbonization. Green hydrogen is being rolled out at an unprecedented speed, outpacing any previous power vector in history. I will not list the huge number of milestones achieved in this area in 2024 since we've recently held Enagás' third Hydrogen Day, where we gave you detailed explanations, and you can always check the presentation for further details.
The new European Commission has upped its commitments with green hydrogen and its infrastructures as the perfect meeting point for its green and industrial agendas. The Competitiveness Compass, presented by the European Commission's president, Ursula von der Leyen, on January 29th, underscored the need to accelerate investments in hydrogen infrastructure. All of Europe is moving ahead in this direction.
Seventeen member states have already published their hydrogen production targets in their national energy and climate plans, accounting for a total of 52 gigawatts, of which 31.5 gigawatts are concentrated in the four countries involved in H2Med. Forty-eight infrastructure projects have been recognized as projects of common interest already, and these projects of common interest, or PCIs, cover 21,000 kilometers of hydrogen pipelines at an estimated EUR 60 billion in investments in hydrogen infrastructures, quantities which really leave no room for doubt.
We are entering a new cycle, and creating a European hydrogen network is one of the top priorities for the European Commission and the member states. Spain and Enagás are there in the front lines of this process. The third Enagás Hydrogen Day showcased the very strong institutional and government support and significant business progress.
We had special guests, including the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, the Executive Vice President of the European Commission, Teresa Ribera, and the President of the Spanish regulatory body, the CNMC, Cani Fernández. Indisputably, over the next years, renewable hydrogen will be the driving force for competitiveness in both Spain and Europe. The demand forecasts for hydrogen are clear. For example, in Europe, the demand established only by the regulatory obligations from the Renewable Energy Directive, RED III, and the Refuel EU Aviation regulations will reach between three and four and a half million tons by 2030.
The demand estimated for that year by the Spanish Energy and Climate Plan will be 0.8 million tons. As regulation helps boost demand, hydrogen supply will be driven by increased industrial capacities and economies of scale, which will trigger a reduction in hydrogen prices due to lower costs and greater electrolyzer efficiency. In Spain, since the end of 2024, we've had the IBEX index developed by MIBGAS, in which the cost of producing hydrogen in Spain is in line with the cost recorded in the first auction of the European Hydrogen Bank in the project sent from Spain of €5.8 per kilogram.
According to the electricity cost scenarios, the price of green hydrogen by 2030 will vary between €3.8 and €2.6 per kilogram. The Iberian Peninsula will certainly produce the most competitive hydrogen in Europe. A hydrogen market is only possible with infrastructure connecting supply and demand. This is Enagás' main focus and will continue to be so over the next years in Spain and in Europe, as proven by the projects we have included in our strategy update. In Spain, the first elements of the Spanish Hydrogen Backbone Network will stretch over 2,500 kilometers and will represent a gross investment of EUR 4.7 billion, most of it up to 2030.
It's a key infrastructure for decarbonization and industrial competitiveness, as demonstrated by the call for interest we put out at the end of 2023. In order to respond to this demand for infrastructure, we presented for the second call for PCIs in November of 2024 for new sections of the backbone network, which will entail an additional 1,480 kilometers with gross investment estimated at EUR 2,135 million. These new sections are not included in the strategy update as they will be rolled out after 2030.
We are now moving ahead with meeting the calendar established for the first lines of the backbone network, complying with the mandate entrusted upon us by the Spanish government for the deployment of our PCI projects. We have carried out the conceptual engineering of the backbone network and awarded the basic engineering for the first two compression stations, among other developments. We will be starting in the next weeks to roll out the conceptual plan for public consultation, the biggest ever in Spain of this nature, and our goal is to take the final investment decision for the backbone network by 2027.
As for H2Med, it has been recognized as the most advanced corridor in Europe and a key project so that the EU can lead the energy transition process. The participation in the call for interest we announced last February 10th, together with our European partners, was an outstanding success, with 528 projects presented by 168 companies in the four countries of the corridor. The corridor will come into operation at the beginning of the 2030s and will involve gross investment for Enagás of €1.16 billion between 2024 and 2030.
H2Med will transport the most competitive green hydrogen in Europe, and both the backbone network and H2Med can count on the firm backing of the European Commission. We have obtained 100% of the Connecting Europe Facility funds we applied for to carry out the studies and the initial engineering for H2Med and the first lines of the Spanish Hydrogen Backbone Network and associated underground storage. The Spanish network has received €32.5 million.
All in all, projects related to H2Med corridor have been awarded EUR 97.3 million in funding, which is 39% of the total CINEA approved funding for hydrogen projects. Apart from hydrogen, Enagás has other significant growth drivers for the next years, bringing together new businesses to develop services and infrastructures connected to other green molecules vital for decarbonization, where Enagás will be an increasingly prominent player. We have set up Scale Green Energy.
Scale Green Energy will focus on CO2 and bunkering and small-scale LNG and Bio-LNG, green hydrogen for mobility, and renewable ammonia. In the field of renewable ammonia, we will be promoting the development of port infrastructures for renewable ammonia in the footprint of our regasification plants, where we expect to be able to manage a million tons a year in Huelva and Algeciras by 2030. Since LNG plays a key role in the decarbonization of the maritime transport and other sectors, Scale Green Energy is developing small-scale export terminals and bio-LNG and LNG bunkering vessels.
We already have two in operation and another one under construction. As for CO2, it is becoming an increasing priority throughout Europe. Our focus will be to develop CO2 pipelines, liquefaction plants, and CO2 shipping vessels, driving the establishment of logistic hubs around our LNG plants. We aim to manage four million tons a year of emissions from Spanish cement plants by the beginning of the next decade, with the potential capacity in Spain, as reflected in the call for interest we put out in 2023, of 10.4 million tons. These are CO2 emissions that would be impossible to reduce by other means, and so these infrastructures will be essential, crucial for decarbonization.
This has already taken shape in concrete projects, such as the one we have with Holcim and Saggas, and the one we're promoting with Molins, which will come online in 2031, with a total net investment for Enagás of some EUR 130 million. Both projects will be presented in the Innovation Fund event in April of this year. I've left for last the use of renewable hydrogen for terrestrial mobility, which is playing an increasingly important role. In fact, just a few days ago, we heard that we have been granted the CEF funds we applied for to develop six hydrogen filling stations in Spain.
These stations are part of the EcoHynet project, which will supply renewable hydrogen to light vehicles and large transport fleets. By 2030, the goal is to have 12 hydrogen stations, which will represent 15% of the figure estimated in the National Action Framework. The new investment cycle, with green hydrogen in the center, together with other molecules and services, will be underpinned by our very sound balance sheet. We'll also have an updated regulatory framework for natural gas infrastructures and a new framework for hydrogen infrastructures.
In the case of natural gas, the next regulatory framework should contemplate fair remuneration from regulated activities, with a financial rate of return that will appropriately reflect the cost of capital in line with macroeconomic trends and incentives to guarantee supply and the sustainability of gas infrastructures. These infrastructures have already demonstrated how critical they are for energy security, industrial competitiveness, and the financial health and sustainability of the gas system, and where our management has led us to be recognized as the most efficient TSO in Europe.
Infrastructures, which will moreover play an increasingly critical role for the power system, underpinning the electricity system, in particular given the planned phase-out of nuclear energy and increasing demand from data centers. The deadlines for the next regulatory period for natural gas are very clear. The financial rate of return for the 2027-2032 framework will be announced this first quarter, and as the CNMC has announced, we expect that the circulars on gas regulations will begin the consultation process in October, which should mean the final version will be ready by July 2026.
As for hydrogen, we need a scheme that will provide incentives for the development of new infrastructures, key for decarbonization, industrial competitiveness, and Spain's energy sovereignty, with appropriate remuneration on current assets and collection from the moment the investments are made. In order for the hydrogen market to become a reality in Europe, we need a fast transposition of the directive with good alignment between member states and proper coordination between regulators in the different countries.
To summarize the main figures, the strategy update we are presenting today establishes 45% more investment than we had forecast in the strategy plan we presented in July of 2022, with a total of €4.03 billion, of which 83% will be eligible investment up to 2030, according to the European Union taxonomy, for its contribution to the environmental goal of mitigating climate change. Green hydrogen will be the heart of Enagás' growth strategy, with €3.12 billion in this period, investments which will accelerate after 2026 and which will be the baseline for our bid to achieve an estimated compound annual growth of 9.5% over the 2026-2030 period.
This ambitious investment program will be accompanied by our efficiency plan, which has shown itself to be a very effective tool and which will continue to curtail operating expenses with a cap on annual growth of around 1.5% between 2024 and 2026, below our inflation forecast. We also foresee an improvement in our debt-related net financial income with a 40% reduction over this period.
EUR 4,400 million for 2026 and we have reduced that figure to EUR 2,300 million. We count on a solid balance that accompanies.
We have a sound balance sheet which, along with prudent regulatory assumptions, remains compatible with our priority to offer attractive and sustainable remuneration to our shareholders and maintaining our payout policy of EUR 1 per share beyond 2026, as long as our business and regulation assumptions used for the update materialize. With these planned investments, Enagás will almost double its regulated assets between 2026 and 2030, boosting them to nearly €5 billion. In 2030, we will mark a revealing milestone in the contribution to energy transition in our company.
The RAB of our green hydrogen assets will exceed those of natural gas that year. A future of growth driven by decarbonization, backed by the solid commitment of the entire Enagás team, many of them over 50% of the company also as shareholders. In the framework of our flexible remuneration plan, today we again offer company employees the possibility to receive part of their remuneration in scrip. Technical cooperation and sustainability will become an even more core element in Enagás' purposes, including all elements in the company's transition plan to mitigate climate change in compliance with the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive.
We will be a net zero company by 2040, and for that purpose, we are on the path of strictly decarbonizing our direct operations. We're also acting on those activities that affect our value chain, where we will also be net zero by 2050. We have clearly established our commitment with tangible lines of action in which the adaptation of our infrastructures and the development of our hydrogen investments and new logistical chains for other key molecules for decarbonization will play a key role. This commitment explains our track record at the top of the major international sustainability indices. Our digital transformation plan allows us to move ahead swiftly along our sustainability roadmap and our strategy plan.
We are rolling out a more digital energy model in all areas of our activity, with a star role in our cybersecurity plan to ensure resilience and continuity of our business and artificial intelligence as a transformative disruptive element. In sum, we are driven by digitalization, technology, and innovation as big strategy drivers to speed up the arrival of a hydrogen-based economy. Another outstanding initiative is the Hydrogen Technology Observatory, which we launched, and in under 12 months already has more than 40 leading partners to roll out the technical developments for this vector through the whole value chain. I will wrap it up with six main conclusions. 2024 was a turning point for Enagás. We adopted important decisions and achieved significant milestones that enhanced the company's balance sheet and risk profile.
Thanks to this performance, we're in an excellent position to tackle a new investment stage vital to the decarbonization of both Europe and Spain. Our better balance sheet lays sound foundations for a sustainable dividend policy beyond 2026. Between 2022 and 2024, we paid out EUR 1.27 billion in dividends, thus proving that our commitment to shareholders is an absolute priority in our strategy. Gas infrastructures will continue to play a vital role to guarantee supply security, industrial competitiveness, and the very future of energy transition and decarbonization. Europe's institutional and financial support to Spain's infrastructure is clear to see.
With Scale Green Energy, we will also roll out other key services for energy transition, like CO2, Bio-LNG, and hydrogen for mobility. More than half the decarbonization battle lies in the field of renewable molecules, and Spain has a unique opportunity we cannot miss, which is why hydrogen infrastructures are so vital. And last, the growth of our company and creating value for our shareholders is a major priority for the entire Enagás team. This strategy is our roadmap to invest over EUR four billion in the next few years, with hydrogen as the main driver in building up the Enagás of the future.
Thank you very much for your attention. We are here now to answer your questions. Thank you very much, Mr. CEO. Over to the Q&A period. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. To participate, please press star one in your phone keyboard. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question comes from Fernando Lafuente, analyst from Alantra. Good morning, Fernando. Please go ahead with your question.
Hello, good day, everybody, and thank you very much for your presentation and for the strategy you laid out. I have three questions. The first one about the regulatory framework. Well, obviously, I don't expect an exact number, but what's your rate of return range for the next regulatory period, and what incentives are you considering? Incentives to investment or extra incentives? Second question is about the Peru arbitration. I would like to hear about the timing of those quite material extra claims beyond the ruling. When do you expect to have any data on that? And also on the TGP dividends, have they been released, or when do you expect them to be?
Third, about midterm cash generation. Could you give us an estimate or a range beyond 2027? I don't know, for the period 2027-2030, for instance.
Well, thank you, Fernando. As for the regulatory framework on TRF, I can obviously make no specific announcements. We're waiting for the CNMC to publish the first quarter memo on the TRF, the power system. As this letter acts or works as a benchmark for the gas system, so we will soon hear what their published number is. Our assumption to draft our forecast circles around 6.5%, but as I said, the CNMC numbers will be published very soon.
About possible incentives or remuneration of ongoing investment. Well, for the remuneration of the gas system, we're considering some remuneration to the sustainability of the gas system as part of the general incentives and the power system to provide continuity to the remuneration of supply continuity, as has been assumed during the ongoing period, which is fully justified because, as I said, the gas system increasingly plays a role of supporting the entire electricity generation system and will continue to do so, undoubtedly.
As for hydrogen investments, well, considering that this structure involves plenty of new construction, part of the infrastructure will involve refurbishing existing structure, but mostly it'll be new construction. So we do believe new investments are justified, and we trust that remuneration on those will be there. About the Peru arbitration, I should like to point out that our accounting contemplates the sum we're entitled to according to the ruling.
These are the two aspects I mentioned during my presentation: material reimbursement and also contemplating that through the arbitration on the GSP tendering process, we might recover all or part of the guarantees put down, which is an aspect that was acknowledged by the arbitrators. So, of course, in the case of the claim, the first claim, we believe we're likely to win that one. In the case of a tender arbitration, the process will be long, years probably, and we cannot estimate how long it will take. T he budget deficit in case of an arbitration decision, we're not announcing any amounts, but we have announced in the market that these are action lines we intend to pursue and which might yield a certain amount.
About the TGP, we believe that the court decision, the arbitration ruling, should be to release the cash resources blocked in Peru on account of TGP dividends. The decision is final, but there is a second ongoing arbitration exclusively dealing with that matter, so we trust that this ruling will arrive during 2025. Meanwhile, we will take all the necessary steps to unblock that cash flow, including full willingness to discuss with the Peruvian government. We will touch upon all the levers we can to free up that cash, and we also have to wait for the ruling on the second arbitration that will probably come in the next few months.
On cash operations during that period, I'm sure Luis has the numbers by now.
Yes, good morning, Fernando. In truth, for the 2730 period, we're considering a fund for operation of approximately €580 million based on three components. The FFO will be approximately EUR 340 million. During the second period, the company, and under the regulatory assumptions of two dimensions, will generate or will maintain a stable cash flow, thus allowing our cash flows to remain stable. The second component is flows from investees, which are approximately EUR 170 million.
These are stable flows with high visibility, and then the FFO in connection with hydrogen, including the work in progress element and the commissioning of the backbone network in 2030. With that, we get an average FFO of EUR 230 million, leading us to a total of EUR 580 million.
I would say that with the leveraging Arturo mentioned during the 26th period, when we will generate €2 billion extra in cash for a net debt of €2.3 billion in 2023, these elements would allow us to phase that period 2730 to deploy the KPI plan and to maintain the present dividend policy. Thank you, Fernando, for your questions. Next question comes from Mediobanca, Javier Suárez. Please go ahead with your question.
Hello, good day, everyone, and thank you for the presentation. My question is about the regulatory timing. We do see that there's a lag from the regulator to determine the remuneration of the electric system and the filing of the national plan for electric infrastructures. M y actual question is, do you believe that this first regulator's document, the consultation paper for the electric system, will have clear reference points for the gas system?
Do you believe this document will include some guidelines to give you visibility on your potential remuneration beyond 2027? In connection with this, I wonder what your interpretation is of the delay of publishing the national plan for electric infrastructures. In a context in which these are mandatory investments for companies like yours, will that national infrastructure plan include any of those guidelines that might have an impact for you? In other words, will we know how relevant it will be to create an ad hoc hydrogen national infrastructure plan?
The boiled-down question is, when do you expect to have visibility for this CapEx in connection with hydrogen and its remuneration? I thought your CEO mentioned that things are growing quite urgent since you are expecting that this hydrogen-specific regulation will be published. Just as you were very explicit in publishing your expected remuneration for the gas system, would you be equally open about your assumption for hydrogen remuneration? What numbers are you using for your forecasts? Fi nally, one last question about Peru. After the GSP arbitration decision, what should be immediately applicable?
Could you update us about your negotiations with the Peru government? Is it true that you're waiting for the final TGP decision, and when this final outcome or award is granted, you will sit down with the Peruvian government and reach an agreed discussion or agreement with the Peru government, or am I missing something here? That's all. Thank you.
Thank you for your questions, Javier. About your first set of questions, I believe that in Alantra we can only provide a partial answer since there are aspects of the electric system plan that are beyond our scope. We do not sit at the heart of the process as transporting operators and the power system, but I would like to state that the financial remuneration rate letter will be published for its consultation very soon. It was announced for the first quarter of 2025. Yes, this might involve a slight delay versus early calendars, but we also know that in the past few years, new directors were appointed to cover vacancies in the CNMC.
These new directors had to take office and appear at the parliament, so CNMC members are renewed, which might go to explain that limited delay. I don't think they're dragging their feet, and I'm sure that the letter will be published very soon. I t does provide guidelines to the gas system because the methodology for the financial remuneration rate established in that letter will be the one to apply to the gas system, although in the gas system this will be enacted one year later, and therefore there might be a decalage on account of the size of the numbers themselves.
Certainly, the letter will provide a clue or a guideline, as you called it, a high-quality guideline on what the FRR will look for the gas system. As for planning, there is not much I can say. It's extraordinarily complex technical work, so it will take time to become available, and I'm sure the sole reason is the complexity of the technical work behind it. At any rate, Javier, I would like to underscore that hydrogen has its own roadmap, and the hydrogen roadmap is established by the National Energy Plan, which is already approved and enforced, and it already establishes the big numbers for hydrogen generation and for the electricity required to generate that hydrogen.
Our benchmark, our beacon, is the National Energy and Climate Plan. W e do not believe that the electric system will introduce any changes on the national plan. It will just provide a clearer view. But we believe that the national plan is a perfect reference framework, and that is where we find an installed capacity for electrolyzers of 12 gigawatts for 2030, which is fully compatible with the objective of the commissioning of the backbone network by 2030, as established in the national plan, and then based on that, H2Med.
Javier, we will be on the lookout for anything published, but the foundations were laid by the national plan, and that's the only reference point we need. About hydrogen CapEx and when will we have any visibility on its potential remuneration? In our strategy update, we established that by 2027, the remuneration principles for the hydrogen regulation system must be established, and that will lead us to the final decision on remuneration for the backbone network. For that purpose, two things are going on.
First, the discussion of the Energy Creation Act in the Congress, which has particular competencies in the field of hydrogen, like establishing methodologies, remunerations, system operators, remuneration of infrastructures, letters about access capacities. All of that is under discussion in the Congress as we speak, and the administration is working full steam to transpose the decarbonized gas and hydrogen plan, which is another element to design the regulatory remuneration framework for hydrogen. The administration has declared their intention to move ahead by the two-year deadline for transposing the directive.
Actually, a preliminary consultation has already been published for the whole package, and we are convinced that very soon the ministry will be publishing a consultation with a text for the transposition of that European directive, which is so important for our industry. About remuneration brackets, well, we believe that our remuneration framework for hydrogen, a regulated one, will have a reasonable yield similar to gas, which involves a post-tax rate of 6.5%-7% for a spread of 150-200 basis points on the cost of capital for Alantra.
We are convinced that we should have a remuneration, a pass-through remuneration for OpEx during the first couple of years, and as I said, appropriate remuneration of work in progress and collection of investments, plus a pre-tax FRR of approximately 8%, considering that in the case of hydrogen, there are no other remuneration or incentive elements, like for instance, supply continuity. Those are our assumptions on which we built the forecasts we brought to you today.
About the Peru arbitration, well, the minute we read the award, we contacted the Peruvian government and made ourselves available for the negotiation on the execution of the award, and we have filed to the different official bodies in Peru to leave the list of category two. In other words, we have requested that the sum be paid, and we're still waiting for the Peru administration's reply, considering that we are fully available and willing to move ahead towards a solution. We are working along the same lines in terms of the TGP dividends.
We're taking every possible step to unblock those dividends without waiting for the second arbitration award, but certainly the second award will also be relevant because the specific purpose of that arbitration is including us in the category two of Law 3737. Although the award is final in the sense that our inclusion in that list counters the agreement of reciprocal investments between Spain and Peru and therefore not legal, the first award had no implementation capacity because the minute we filed our first request for arbitration, no ban had been issued to international transfers by Enagás from Peru.
Then by the second award, we request a decision addressed to a claim addressed to the Peruvian administration to pull us out of the list and release these funds. T he first award is final in terms of the subject matter, and we believe that the second award will establish an explicit execution instruction. W e're doing everything we can to repatriate those funds since the award was issued, but we do believe that the second award will also play a key role if we have not repatriated those funds by then. W e're not waiting for the second award.
We're doing everything we can already, and we're negotiating with the Peruvian administration, and we've made ourselves available to find the best possible way to execute the award from the first arbitration. Gracias.
Well, thank you very much, Javier, for that question. The next one is from JB Capital from Ignacio Doménech. Good morning, Ignacio. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning. Thank you for the presentation and for answering my questions. The first question is about H2Med. I'd like to know what kind of timeline you have in mind for the final investment decision. I understand that it might happen towards the end of this year, but I would like you to confirm that and also how Alantra sees the results of the call for interest, which took place a few days ago. M y second question about the hydrogen backbone network in Spain, I'd also like to know when you expect to have the plan from the government of Spain. I think in the presentation you spoke about a final investment decision by 2027, but I imagine that's connected to the government's own or the ministry's own plan.
My third question about the performance of the subsidiaries. Could you give us some additional color on the performance, especially of TGP and TAP? What are your forecasts for the coming years and what are your targets by 2030? Because I know you spoke about between 25 and 30, but what are you actually including in these targets?
Thank you very much, Ignacio. First, as for H2Med, the final investment decision will necessarily have to be connected to our being awarded the European funding necessary to undertake the development of the infrastructure. In the case of H2Med and the international interconnections, the contribution of the Connecting Europe Facility will be very significant in order to guarantee the financial feasibility. What we have in front of us now is to complete the preliminary studies.
A s I've explained in the presentation, we have received all the funding we had requested for the studies of the corridor, which is really extraordinary. Almost 40% of all the funding awarded by the CINEA for hydrogen infrastructures are for our H2Med corridor. But now, once we complete those studies, we have to go through a whole series of procedures with the European institutions. We have to file the investment project with the regulators, and so eventually we'll be able to request the funds for construction.
All of that will mean that the final investment decision will not take place before, I would say, 2028, but that will be just the subject of a specific announcement by the consortium when we have more visibility of the timeline. As for the results of the call for interest, we believe that they were hugely successful. There was a webinar on February 10th in which we presented the conclusions of this process, which is the first of its kind in Europe.
The main conclusions indicate that the Iberian Peninsula and Spain in particular has huge potential for hydrogen production, and to ask Natalia Latorre to give us some of the key figures on that in a moment, but clearly, these results confirm those of the previous call for interest for Spain a year earlier and are a tremendous guarantee for Europe that H2Med will generate enough volumes of renewable hydrogen in order to fulfill the design capacity for this infrastructure. We've checked that France will play a double role as both consumer and producer of hydrogen, and in fact, during the first part of the period, they may be a net exporter.
We've also checked that the call for interest has awakened tremendous interest in Germany, especially in the western part of Germany where the OGE network is being deployed. T he vision in the call for interest indicates that this infrastructure might be decisive in order to cover the hydrogen needs of German industry in that area. But anyway, I'm going to give the floor to Natalia when I finish so she can give us some of the key figures. A s for the planning by the government, the binding plan by the government for the network, it will be connected with the transposition of the directive. T he government, of course, has its own timeline, but the directive was published in July of 2024, and so it will have to be transposed by July 26th at the latest.
Therefore, the binding plan will probably be ready by that year. However, and it's actually really important, the government, precisely in order not to have to wait until the legal framework is fully transposed for the binding plan, the government's already given us the mandate to develop the PCIs and has already given us the green light to start with the proceedings for both the backbone network and H2Med. We have green light to start the public consultation process and the environmental impact plan. The backbone network doesn't have to wait for the binding plan to be in place because we already have the legal mandate from the cabinet and legal support of the Royal Decree 2023 in order to undertake these projects without waiting for the binding plan to be published by the government.
Now I'm going to give the floor to Natalia so she can remind us of some of the figures from that call for interest for H2Med. T hen I'll ask Luis to give us the details about the TGP and the TAP performance current and the forecast for the coming years.
Yes, good morning, Ignacio. Yes, the call for interest for us was a tremendous success in terms of participation. We had 168 companies present 528 projects throughout the corridor. A s a take-home message, for example, BarMar, which is one of the purposes of this call for interest, was understanding how much demand capacity through BarMar there would be. That's Barcelona-Marseille. By 2032, we'd be talking about 2 million tons that could be exported beyond the Iberian Peninsula. B y 2035, the number would rise to 2.6.
France, as Arturo has pointed out, would be able to export approximately 0.4 million tons to Germany. This call for interest has underscored the conclusions and findings of the original Spanish call for interest. There were also lots of projects that would produce for internal Spanish consumption. In 2032, that would be 2.6 million tons. The Spanish production capacity potential is huge. Yes, good morning, Ignacio. As for the subsidiaries, as we said at the beginning, in the 2027-2030 period, we expect a dividend contribution from subsidiaries of about EUR 170-180 million.
Currently, the average dividend from subsidiaries in 2024, but also in 2025, will be around EUR 165 million. In this contribution, TGP is the biggest contributor, around EUR 85 million for 2025 and TAP EUR 45 million. How do we expect these contributions to evolve in the future, particularly TGP and TAP? Well, actually, they will be increasing up to EUR 180 million on average. T here will be an increase of about EUR 15 million, driven mostly by the expansion of TAP, which will mean its contribution will rise from EUR 45 million to EUR 65 or 70, and TGP will remain more or less at around EUR 75 million. T hese are the main components of the contribution of our subsidiaries in the next years.
Thank you very much for those answers. We're going to move to the next question, which is from Société Générale, our analyst, Jorge Alonso. Please go ahead. Yes, good morning. Yes, I have a question.
Could you give us some idea of the level of net debt that you might reach by 2030 with the full plan, or at least give us an idea if the ratio to net debt you think should stay at 14% to keep your current rating? Could you give us more or less an idea of whether it would be about EUR 4 billion in net debt that would make sense in that context? A nother question, the EBITDA, looking at the compound growth forecasts you're giving us for 2030, would be at around EUR 880 million, if I'm not mistaken, just to make sure, and whether that includes 12 months of contribution from the hydrogen infrastructures.
That is, if by 2030, they would be bringing in full 12 months of revenue. M y final question is, the plan to fund all of this CapEx, are you considering any potential asset divestments? I know Europe is your core footprint and not Latin America, but do you really feel comfortable with beginning this investment plan while divesting of some of your Latin American portfolio? F inally, how are you planning equipment supplies and so on? Because according to your plan, it looks like construction will be very concentrated over a couple of years. I wonder what kind of execution risks might exist there or if it's all pretty standard with no significant bottlenecks. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Jorge. About net debt by 2030 in our forecasts, we estimated at EUR 4.397 billion, approximately. That with the FCO that the CFO mentioned earlier would mean that we would have a ratio of 15% and so compatible with our BBB plus rating. As for our EBITDA by 2030, pretty similar to the calculations you mentioned, our EBITDA would be EUR 875 million in our forecast for that year with the contribution of a full 12 months of the hydrogen business since we expect that the backbone network, which is the main contribution of hydrogen that year, would come online at the beginning of the year.
A s for potential divestments, we haven't considered any in the financial forecast that we've announced today. Of course, that the assets that we still have in Latin America are the Altamira regasification plant and especially the Peruvian assets, particularly the TGP asset. Naturally, our priority is to finish the litigation process with the Peruvian government, and so we're not planning any divestments at this time. But once everything has been resolved, we will make some strategic assessment of those assets.
But right now, we're not considering rotating those assets in the near future within this planning horizon. But it's the fact, as you've said, Jorge, that the challenge of guaranteeing the supply of equipment and services for the execution of a project of this magnitude is a challenge, and that's why we've been working on it from day one. W e are already defining requests for information processes from different suppliers and equipment manufacturers. We have a very close relationship with the equipment vendors, with the OEMs, with the equipment manufacturers because a project of this size means you must reserve capacity well in advance. We're already doing that both for the backbone network and for H2Med.
A s I've explained, we've already begun to put out some tenders and award some initial elements of the development of these assets, starting with the engineering work, which does also require a lot of effort in projects of this magnitude. D efinitely a key aspect, Jorge, and that's why we're very much focused on it in our own planning cycle for these assets.
Thank you very much. There are no further questions in the Spanish channel, so we're going to open the floor to questions.
Thank you. We'll now take questions from the English room. As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press Star 1 on your telephone keypad.
Very much. First question comes from James Brand, analyst of Deutsche Bank.
Hi, good morning, and thank you for the presentation. I had a few questions. Firstly, you were kindly giving a bit more granularity on some of the financial projections in 2030. I wanted to ask firstly on the EBITDA, where you said EUR 875 million, are you able to provide a rough split for how much of that is hydrogen and how much of that is the gas business? That's the first question. You also just provided a net debt number in 2030 of EUR 4.4 billion, of which I believe you said that was not assuming any divestments.
I just want to ask, what does that assume for the dividend? Because you've obviously provided guidance for the dividend out till 2026 for €1. You've said you believe that that's sustainable, but obviously haven't provided guidance out to 2030 f or the dividend. D oes the EUR 4.4 billion assume that that €1 continues, or does it make a different assumption? The final question is on, the regulation for hydrogen, the return dynamics. You kind of said in the answer to an earlier question that you were anticipating that you should have a return of around, I believe what you said is you were anticipating you should have a return of around 8% for hydrogen.
There's been a whole kind of debate up until now, which has been, do you have a higher return and take the risk that may be involved in hydrogen being higher than for natural gas regulation, or do you take a low return and do you get kind of some kind of government backstop on the investment or some kind of very secure regulation? I'm just wondering whether your thinking on that had evolved at all. Talking about an 8% return potentially makes me think you're willing to take maybe a bit more risk, but what is the latest thinking on government backstop on the hydrogen investment versus a higher return to a new market for the high risk? Thank you very much.
Thank you very much for your question, James. First of all, regarding EBITDA by 2030, as I said, our guidance is 875 by that year. Of those, 400 is natural gas, 870 comes from the affiliate companies, around 290 comes from hydrogen, and around 20 come from the new, as we call it, adjacent businesses, mainly the bunkering business. The net debt I mentioned for 2030, those EUR 4.4 billion, don't include divestments. It's the result of the cash generation during the period and the investments that we are envisaging. A s I said, no divestments included in the equation.
For the dividends, what I said is that with the projections we have presented today, our assumption is €1 per share beyond 2026 until 2030, provided that our assumptions for the business evolution and for the regulation and the remuneration scheme for the next period are met. T his is not a commitment. It's the assumption we've taken for these projections. In those projections, we see that with this net debt of 4.4 and this CapEx program and the remuneration assumptions we've taken, the €1 per share dividend is sustainable during the next period.
For hydrogen-regulated return, what we are saying is that the profitability has to be similar to that of gas. But as in the natural gas system, besides the financial remuneration rate, there are other incentives, such as the remuneration of the continuity of supply. These incentives are not established for the hydrogen system. That means that the financial remuneration rate has to be higher for hydrogen than for natural gas to produce a similar level of post-tax profitability, post-tax financial return.
T his is why we are considering the same internal return between 7.5%-8% for both systems, for natural gas and for hydrogen, but that requires a higher financial remuneration rate for the hydrogen because in the hydrogen system, we won't have other incentives that are established for the gas system. I hope that this is clear enough. Thank you very much. We are ready to take the next question that comes from Bank of America, John Campbell, floor is yours. Go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Yeah, thanks for taking my questions. I just had a very quick one. Looking through your slides, it looks like you updated your assumption for the level of, I would call it, subsidies or grants for the construction of the Spanish backbone network. I think you left the grants the same in H2Med. I'd be interested to know, I think it's gone from 40% originally to 20%. What kind of underpins that assumption? Have you heard anything? Any details you could provide, I think, would be helpful. Thank you.
Thank you, John. What we are seeing, and when we analyze the track record of CEF subsidies for this kind of infrastructure, although in the past, no hydrogen infrastructure has been subsidized, so the correlation is not direct at all, but what we have seen is that typically, the intensity of EU funding for international interconnections, transborder interconnections, is higher than for the enabling national systems that provide the necessary support for the interconnections.
We have decided to be more conservative, and we are assuming a 40% intensity of EU subsidies for H2Med for the transborder interconnections and 20% for the domestic backbone. This is, as I said, because of the track record that shows that for domestic infrastructure, CEF typically provides a lower intensity of EU funding. W e have just tried to be more prudent, more conservative to reflect this lower intensity in the case of national infrastructure. We think that this 20% for the Spanish backbone, 40% for H2Med, is realistic whilst being conservative. F or these financial projections, we think that it's a very, very good reference. Thank you.
Thank you very much. Next question comes from Morgan Stanley. Arthur Sidborn, please go ahead. Good morning.
Good morning. Yes, thank you for taking my question. It's basically on your policy of the 40% payout ratio on FFO beyond 2026. I was wondering basically how could that evolve depending on the hydrogen CapEx trajectory? My point here is if ever you spend less CapEx on hydrogen than expected, for example, because there are delays, would that mean lower dividend because you would have lower FFO because hydrogen would not contribute as much EBITDA as expected?
Or could that mean higher dividend because actually you would have less to invest in and so maybe more cash available? I was wondering how you think about that. A s well on the different question on the size of the guarantees on GSP that you were talking about that you're still hoping to get at some point, if you could just quantify that, that would be very helpful. Thank you very much.
Thank you for your questions, Arthur. As we have a mandate by the government of Spain to have our Spanish hydrogen backbone in place by 2030. T his is what we are envisaging. This is what we are required to do. W e don't consider deviations from this basic objective of our plan. I think it couldn't be otherwise because this is something that is established already in the PNIEC, in the mandate we have received from the government. So we cannot now give alternative projections of our dividend to that that I have already commented.
All in all, for us, these assumptions are very robust to ensure a sustainable development beyond 2026. If there is a material deviation from these plans in the coming years, we will consider the possible consequences, but we don't see any change to that dividend policy. We think that if there is some, let's say, slight delay in the plans, everything can be maintained in the terms we have explained. The CapEx can be deployed a little bit later, perhaps partially, or perhaps the contribution of hydrogen may start also with a gradual ramp-up. But this is just speculations. I think it doesn't reflect any vision of the management team at this point in time.
We think that our plans are very robust. They are in accordance to the mandate we have received from the government, and we have, of course, some range of flexibility, of sensibilities to maintain this view of the future dividend, even if there is some non-material adjustment to our plans. Concerning GSP and the warranties, this represents, if I'm not mistaken, $230 million in this case. W e think this is going to be a long process. The arbitration procedure for that is just starting, and so we prefer not to include any income from that arbitration procedure until 2030.
If there are news in that regard, we will maintain the market updated on that, but don't expect news soon because this is going to be a lengthy process that is just starting. But we think it's important to let the market know that we are going to fight for receiving even those parts of the amount we are claiming that have not been acknowledged by the GSP arbitration last December.
Thank you very much. There are no more questions in the English room. Vamos a responder.
So we are now going to answer the questions that have come in in writing through our website, although lots of them have already been answered in the previous questions and answers. The first is from CaixaBank, from our analyst, Flora. She's asking, what is the reason why you've delayed some of the investments in underground storage facilities, and what is the CapEx for hydrogen that the company might expect beyond 2030 based on the proposal for these new sections that you've sent for the second PCI call?
Thank you for those questions, Flora. About the first. As in our first PCI list, we've included two underground storage facilities. One of them is more mature than the other because the incorporation of storage to the backbone network needs to also be gradual. We've greatly increased our design capacity for the backbone network, and we're moving forward in our ability to optimize the storage cycles within the pipes themselves, the Line Pack, as it's called.
The role of the infrastructure itself with the different pressure levels it can handle as line pack. W e're also moving forward a great deal with optimizing the injection extraction cycles from storage, which means that the commissioning of underground storage timeline can be extended. For example, in the first storage, which will have eight cavities in the period up to 2030, we think we'll only have to bring four of those cavities online, and those will be sufficient. So as we get to know more about the technical capabilities of the network and its storage capabilities in line pack, we are able to delay some of the investments into underground storage, and that's why it's not in the 2030 horizon.
As for hydrogen CapEx for the new sections, in the presentation, I gave you the gross investment that we estimate would be needed for those sections, but it's really too early to include them in our financial forecast. They have been presented for the second PCI list. We'll have to wait for the decision from the European Commission. O nce we have more visibility about those infrastructures, the CapEx they will represent and how we will incorporate it into our financial forecast, we will share it in other presentations. Thank you.
Thank you very much. The other questions that we've received in writing have already been answered, and so there are no further questions. W ith that, we will close this call. Thank you very much, everyone, for your attention. A s usual, we will be available in investor relations to answer any additional questions. Thank you.