Hello, everyone, and welcome to this conference call to discuss Ferrovial Strategic Plan 2020-2024, which we've called Horizon 24. I'm glad to present our new CEO, Mr. Ignacio Madridejos, who will be leading this call. Following his presentation, there'll be time for a Q&A. Please send your questions in writing through the webcast platform or via email to ir@ferrovial.com. They will be read on the Q&A part of this call. Please be aware that this call will be over at 1:00 P.M., in an hour's time. With this, I hand over to Ignacio. The floor is yours.
Thank you, Begoña. Hello. Good afternoon, everyone. Good morning, those in the U.K. and the U.S. A pleasure to present all of you our strategic plan 2020-2024 that we have called Horizon 24. This business plan is the result of our annual strategic review, an exercise we do every year, and it is consistent with our focus on developing and operating sustainable infrastructure, and the sale of our service division that was announced at the beginning of last year. To prepare our business plan, first, we look externally to the trends affecting our infra industry. One of these trends is related to changes in demographics. We are seeing more population living in mega cities and older. For instance, by 2030, we'll have 11 new cities with more than 50 million inhabitants, and 6.7 billion people living in mega cities by 2050. Another trend is related to new technologies.
One of them, of course, is digital technologies and the boom of e-commerce. By 2030, 25% of retail sales in the U.S. will be online, and it will bring additional traffic of commercial vehicles and a very complex last mile next day delivery. Also, we are seeing new technologies like artificial intelligence and 5G, and a huge investment in autonomous cars. However, in spite of this huge investment, according to some studies, it will take some time to see fully autonomous cars in our streets. It will come with more traffic because of the changes in behaviors. We also see a new way to understand mobility as a service with car sharing and car hailing, and it will happen together with more cars, more traffic, and more passengers.
The challenge is that we have to do all this while reducing carbon emissions, and we need a radical change to achieve the 1.5 Celsius degree goal, so it will not be business as usual. Also, climate change will bring water scarcity, and more than 50% of the population will live in regions with water stress, so too much water or not enough water. All this is translated into an estimate of $3.7 trillion per year of investment needed until year 2035. This is according to a McKinsey Global Institute study. Of this, 29% is in energy and 26% is in roads. Also in that sense, the U.S. could be considered an emerging market with a huge need of investment that is considered will be $740 billion every year until 2035. No doubt that we are in the right industry in which Ferrovial can contribute to society.
The way in which we can contribute is developing and operating innovative, efficient, and sustainable infrastructure while creating value for our stakeholders. This is an industry that most of us at Ferrovial have dedicated our professional lives, and we feel very passionate about it. It is also an industry in which we can create value for our shareholders, as we will see in our strategic plan, Horizon 24. To create value, we have identified four strategic priorities. Our people, sustainable growth, operational excellence, and innovation. Talking about people, our most important asset, we have a very talented and passionate team that we protect with a safety culture and make sure they are always motivated to do their best. We also want to attract the best talent in the industry in each of the locations where we have operations.
We have a unique portfolio of infra assets like the 407, the managed lanes in the U.S. or Heathrow Airport, and they are probably some of the best quality assets in the world that in the period of this business plan should bring us EUR 4 billion of infra dividends. We also have a strong pipeline of high-quality infra projects, EUR 12 billion of equity in our core markets of the U.S., U.K., Canada, Poland, Spain, Chile, Colombia, and Peru. We may look selectively into other geographies to increase the pipeline in the future, but we need to have contracting capabilities, projects with a high concessional value, and also that the country is according to the standard that we are requesting. Also, we will explore new sustainable infra-related opportunities like mobility or electrification. We will continue rotating mature assets to optimize capital allocation and complete the sale of our services division.
In our strategic plan, we are improving EBITDA 11% per year from 2020, the normalized EBITDA to 2024, and reaching a 3.5% margin in the contracting division. We're implementing a new operating model that will help us to be more agile, more innovative, and more efficient, with a target of EUR 50 million annual savings. A strategic plan that, as you can see, has a clear focus on shareholder return. Now moving to each of our business units. In the case of toll roads, we want to grow in greenfield projects with high concessional value. A good example of this are our managed lanes in the U.S. We are working proactively to develop these opportunities in some of the most congested cities in the U.S.
Of course, we also want to develop standard traffic risk projects and availabilities in the countries that I have mentioned before and where we have contracting capabilities. The pipeline that we have today in toll roads is EUR 10 billion of equity investment, and we are working to increase this pipeline, look into new geographies, as commented before, with the same criteria, but very selectively. In the projects we are building today, we have an investment commitment of EUR 830 million in this period of time, most of it coming from the A-66. Of course, we will work to increase this amount in the following years with high-return infra projects. Also, as commented previously, we have some of the best assets in the industry. The 407, the Dallas managed lanes, the I-77. All of them with a very long duration and with a potential to increase revenues.
We are expecting EUR 3.3 billion of dividends coming from these assets in the next five years. In airports, we have good capabilities in this business. We have operated many airports, and we are one of the companies who have built more terminals. We have also been very proactive with the portfolio, buying and selling assets similar to other businesses. Airports is an attractive business in which we have to participate with partners and with a wider geographical scope, not only markets where we have contracting capabilities. It is also a more and more competitive industry, and we will only invest when we can take advantage of our capabilities and get the level of returns requested by our investors.
In the case of Heathrow, it is one of the best airports in the world, with a well-needed expansion project to cover the additional traffic that will keep Heathrow as the most important European hub. We will follow closely the decisions taken by the regulator because we need an adequate return to make the investment needed for the expansion. The contracting business is giving us the capabilities to develop infra projects with high concessional value. We'll have these contracting capabilities in Spain, Poland, U.K., Canada, the U.S., Colombia, Chile, and Peru. We will exit non-core markets. We do not want to grow in the construction business. We want profitability and capabilities to build infra projects. Our size will be between EUR 5 billion-EUR 6 billion in these core markets. Last year was close to EUR 5.4 billion. We want to have between 25%-30% of our revenue with internal projects.
We'll be at EUR 6 billion revenue only we have more internal projects. Hopefully it's the case that we are at EUR 6 billion with 30% of internal projects. We are working to improve our processes, an important one is related to our technical skills and the contribution from the design. We are also changing the bidding process, involving operations and using more external data. We're improving our controls to identify as soon as possible deviations to the target. With these improvements in our processes and our strategy, we expect to have a margin of 3.5% EBIT. That is even below the historical profitability of local markets and internal projects in our construction business. We are also exploring other infra-related opportunities. In the case of mobility, it is very close to our toll road business and it give us information about traffic and changes on customer behaviors.
We have two main initiatives. The first one is Zity, a car-sharing business in Madrid that we have together with Renault, that we want to expand to other selected European cities starting from Paris. The second is Wondo, a mobility platform that we want to develop together with partners. The fight against climate change and the reduction of carbon emissions will bring an electrification of transport and buildings. We want to participate in the development of infrastructure with concessional value. Today we have two projects of transmission lines in Chile, we want to participate in more projects in Latin America where we have contracting capabilities with limited equity contribution and rotating the assets fast. In the case of water, we have contracting capabilities, we want to combine them with concessions in the geographies where we have these contracting capabilities.
We have to say that there are very limited opportunities today. Sustainability is at the core of our strategy and we can contribute with infra solutions for a low-carbon environment. We need to reduce our carbon footprint. We have defined a target to reduce our emissions by 32% in year 2030 compared to the emissions in year 2009. To achieve that, we need that 50% of our fleet has zero emissions. 100% of our energy is coming from renewable sources, and we have defined this objective that we'll reach that by 2025. We also need a 30% improvement in energy efficiency in our buildings. These targets are science-based with the technologies available today, and we are working on a plan to be carbon neutral by 2050.
We are also launching our 2022 corporate social responsibility plan that is focused on the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, especially on those that we directly contribute, that are related to water, to cities, and to infrastructures. We'll continue our proactive engagement and advocacy, being part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, where we are now the leaders of the infrastructure industry, the CDP, where we have an A rating, FTSE4Good, and others. Also continue to be part of groups like Green Growth or Heathrow Centre of Excellence, where we combine initiatives for the aviation industry. We have defined a new operating model to be more agile, more innovative, and more efficient. We want to keep the same level of accountability, entrepreneurship, and innovation that we have today. At the same time, we want to enhance transparency and collaboration while improving efficiency through digitalization and automation.
We are taking several measures to simplify our processes. We are creating shared service centers for finance and human resources, and we are reviewing all non-personal overhead expenses. It will help us to reduce our overhead cost by EUR 50 million per year. We expect that this year we will see only EUR 20 million, and the full amount next year. This reduction is done in parallel with the sale of our services division, and it will help us to be leaner in a smaller but more profitable company. To summarize, I think we are in the right industry, an industry we all feel very passionate about, and an industry in which we can contribute, developing and operating infrastructure of high concessional value. We will do it in selected geographies where we can develop contracting capabilities and there are high-value projects. We will continue rotating mature assets.
We'll see an improvement of our profitability, 11% EBITDA improvement per year from our 2020 base. A reduction of our CO2 emissions, and a new operating model that will make us more agile, efficient, and innovative. Always with the same passion to create shareholder value. Thank you very much, and now I will take your questions.
The first question comes from Robert Crimes from Insight. Ignacio, which are the potential non-core parts of construction?
Yeah. Thank you for the question. As commented, what we have defined markets that we want to have contracting capabilities as a local company. These markets are Spain, Poland, U.K., Canada, the U.S., parts of the U.S., because it's a very large country, so we cannot have local capabilities everywhere in the U.S., Chile, Colombia, and Peru. These are considered for us core markets to have contracting capabilities. We have defined them also based on the infra projects that we may have in these markets in the future to develop, and where we can develop contracting capabilities at the same time. That will be the focus. It does not mean that we cannot be on/off in other countries. Of course, we select if there are other interesting infra projects where we can develop opportunities, contracting capabilities in the future.
We will focus on these core markets that I mentioned before.
Also coming from Robert. Any comments on the EBIT margin outlook for construction for 2020, and what steps will you take to reach the 3.5%?
Yeah. Our objective of 3.5%, of course, is something that we want to reach for the contracting business. Of course, in the short term, we have still the effect of this large project that we provisioned last year, and we'll have zero results in the following months. The steps that we are taking in the contracting business, first is about people. We made changes last year in those places where we have problems and issues. This was done at the beginning of last year. We are also reviewing all our processes, the main processes that I commented before, starting from the design and technical. I think it's very relevant for our contracting business. We're also reviewing all our bidding processes, looking how we can get more data, how we can involve more the operational teams that later will develop the projects.
How we can get more information about the cost of the different projects that we are bidding. We are looking at the control, early warnings of any deviations to the target that we are implementing, of course, new reports. We are looking to improve the transparency in all the projects and with all information. People, processes, and strategy. I think it's very relevant that you are a local c ompany, as commented in those markets that we have local capabilities like Spain or Poland or Texas. Our returns have been well above this 3.5%.
What we want to develop local capabilities in markets where we see that we may have infra projects with high concessional value, and we want to focus just on those places, avoiding one-offs or avoiding entering in new markets where we don't have these local capabilities and it's difficult to make money. This 3.5%, this is a target that we have. I think that in the past, looking at the historical information where we have been local, we had higher margins than that. This, our midterm objective is to be 3.5% EBIT margin.
Thank you. The next question comes from Nicolas Mora from Morgan Stanley. Can you please provide more color on your thinking on dividend shareholder distribution? What will it be dependent upon?
Yeah. Our dividend policy is something that is defined by the Board every year, and it will continue to be the case in the future. Of course, we want to have this flexibility because it will depend on the industrial projects, infra projects with high concessional value that we may have in the future. Based on that, it will define what is the cash available to give back to the shareholders via dividend or share buyback. We want to keep that flexibility. Of course, the main driver in our decision will be related to the industrial infra projects with high concessional value that we may develop in the future.
Thank you. Can you talk about the realistic two to three years pipeline in toll roads, especially in managed lanes in the U.S.?
The case of managed lanes is something that you need to create the demand. As you know, U.S. cities are very congested. Huge problem with traffic. They have not received enough federal or state funding to solve some of the infrastructure projects. I think that we bring very good solutions to traffic in most of these congested cities with our managed lanes. We are working proactively to increase this pipeline. We are working in most of these large cities, of course, where we have contracting capabilities and where we see opportunities. Of course, in the very short term, we see the Maryland. That is one opportunity that we'll see developing during this year, beginning of next year. In Atlanta also, there are also some projects that could come ahead.
It's not only these places, but we are also working with unsolicited proposals in other cities in different states in the U.S. As commented, when you see the EUR 10 billion of pipeline, most of it is related to managed lanes in the U.S. and is something that we expect that will get some traction in order to develop some of these projects in the future. It's our main focus on developing infra projects because I think it's a very good contribution to solve a problem of traffic in very congested cities. I think that we have unique capabilities to bring these solutions and to develop these projects. I don't want to be more specific about other projects because it's something that we are working.
It is relevant commercial information that we don't want to share, but it will be the focus on developing our pipeline in the following years. Hopefully we are successful because we think it's a very good solution.
Thank you. The next question comes from Barclays, from Nabil Ahmed. Also, you mentioned interest in electric and water infrastructure. Were you diversifying and allocating resources to non-toll roads and airports assets where you have less expertise?
Of course, the main focus for us and allocation of resources will be toll roads and airports in the case of we can leverage our capabilities and get a return adequate for our shareholders. That will be the case and our main focus. Also we have capabilities and we have developed projects both in electrification and in the water business. In the case of electrification, we see that first, there is a huge opportunity. As commented, is needed a radical change in order to fight against climate change. It will bring together an electrification of transport and also cities. Especially buildings and heating and cooling them. There will be a need of transmission lines, changes in the grid system. It will be a need of infra-related opportunities. I think that could have a high concessional value. Today, we have one transmission line in Chile.
We are developing another one in Chile too. It's a limited equity investment, but I think will be relevant. We have, in these places, the contracting capabilities. The idea is that we rotate the assets very fast. I think that we have capabilities in certain countries we can take advantage. That's why we will explore further opportunities. It does not mean that our main focus will continue being toll roads and airports where we can get investments with adequate return for us. The case of water is a little bit more difficult, or I will say the more limited in terms of opportunities, I will say. We have today contracting capabilities with Cadagua and also in Texas. The idea is we can leverage those capabilities in order to participate in P3s.
The issue is that there are very limited investments in P3s in the places where we have these contracting capabilities. Of course, as commented with the climate change, 50% of the population in water stressed regions, well, maybe there is an opportunity to P3 projects in water, and it will be explored if that's the case, and we can generate returns adequate for our investors. Again, as commented, managed lanes U.S., will be the main focus in the future.
Thank you. The next set of questions comes from Stéphanie D'Ath from RBC. Could you explain what is included on the figure of dividend, which was mentioned in the presentation, from 2020-2024? Is that the dividend for the stake Ferrovial holds in the assets or the total that will be paid by the infrastructure assets?
The EUR 4 billion of dividends is the amount that we estimate that we'll receive from the participation that we have in the different infra assets. We are including there, of course, the 407, we included the managed lanes, we included the Heathrow. We include our main assets. These are the dividends that we are expecting to receive to the Ferrovial Group from this infra asset that, as commented, they are some of the best in the industry, and as commented also with very long-term duration. This is what the Ferrovial would receive from these infra assets.
Thank you. The EUR 12 billion projects in infrastructure, is that mainly toll roads or also airports? Could you please update us on the Maryland process?
The EUR 12 billion is EUR 10 billion related to toll roads, mainly managed lanes. The other EUR 2 billions are mainly related to airports and is the Heathrow expansion also. This is what we have included in the pipeline, as commented again, is mainly related to U.S. managed lanes. Maryland is a process that has been just announced officially at the beginning of the year. There is a request for companies to participate in the process. I think it's next week. I think it's the eighth or the ninth of following week. With that, we'll get more information about how it's going to be developed the process. I think that we need to prepare our bids by the end of the year.
I think that the idea is that it be defined the winner or the company that will do the project at the beginning of next year with the closing of the project. It's something that, as you know, we have the I-66 in Virginia, also covering Washington, D.C. We have expertise and knowledge of the area. Of course, we'll participate and involve in this project. Again, it's a very complex project in two phases. I think that we have the adequate skills to bid for this project and hopefully to be successful and incorporate as part of a committed investment in the future. Of course, we'll be competitive, and we have to wait to see what they are requesting and how it's going to be exactly the process, something that we'll learn in the following days.
Thank you. Please, can you update us on the services divestment process?
Yes, nothing new compared to what Ernesto commented in December when we announced that we signed the SPA for the sale of Broadspectrum. As you know, initially, we look for interested parties in the whole services platform with global exposure in different countries and different type of services businesses. As a result of that process, we learned that there is not much interest from investors in the whole platform. We are in the process of selling and expected to close in the next six and nine months Broadspectrum out of that initial process. At the same time, during the process, we understood that there are some interest in individual countries. That's why we are launching a process that is by country or fully committed to the divestment of our service divisions.
Also at the same time, what we want to do is to maximize the value for our shareholders out of this division. We are working to do it as fast as possible and, of course, with obtaining the maximum income or maximum funds for equity for us from this services division, and hopefully something that we do in the short term.
Thank you. Could you please develop how your experience in U.S. construction will be leveraged at Ferrovial, and what do you think the biggest challenge of Ferrovial is today?
Well, I started my professional career in Ferrovial. I studied civil engineering in Spain, and my first job was in construction here in Spain with Ferrovial. Well, after that, study MBA Stanford and worked for McKinsey and then joined CEMEX. In CEMEX, I've been in different countries. I've been from Mexico, Egypt, Europe, and the U.S. lately. I have been the last three years, always with the same industry. At the end, we are talking about the same industry, and Ferrovial, some of these projects have been a customer. For instance, in Grand Parkway in Houston or in Atlanta, it was one of our customers. I have been there operating in the U.S. in CEMEX for the last three and a half years.
Of course, it gives me a good understanding of the U.S. market, but at the same time, being in a global company like CEMEX also gave me knowledge and understanding of also other countries, and always related to the same industry, developing infrastructure. In the case of also for CEMEX, was also supporting the developing buildings. That is the same type of activities. I think that same time, Ferrovial is a company with very high talented people. I think a very good team of professionals, very good knowledge of the industry, both in construction and also in the concessional business and airports. We have a great team to develop all these projects and to develop the pipeline.
I think that with that, we think that we can deliver on the goals that we have defined for the next five years, and the business plan horizon that we are now implementing, and it's all about the execution now of the strategy, and a strategy that is very clear.
Thank you. The next question comes from Deutsche Bank, from Adrian Forcade. Which credit rating do you target and what leverage do you target?
Will be investment grade. I think that as a company, that will be something that we want to be, of course, at that level. We want to be 3 Bs, triple B. I think that will be our objective as a company, and I think that we not have any problem to maintain that rating.
Thank you. The next question comes from Martin Botthall from Bank of America. In airports, is there any reinvestment pipeline apart from Heathrow's third runway?
No, in the pipeline that we have for airports is mainly related to Heathrow and the third runway. If that happens, and of course, if there are the conditions for us to get the adequate return of that investment, is the only thing that we have included in the pipeline, yeah.
Also from Martin. Considering rotation of mature assets is mentioned in the business plan, would you consider selling stakes in your toll roads in the U.S. and Canada?
As commented, we rotate mature assets. Mature means that whenever we feel that we can reduce the risk of construction, the risk of traffic, or the traffic is very stable, and also we have maximized the revenues at that point of time, of course, it maybe has more value for a third party or a financial investor that are requesting less profitability from those assets than our investor are requesting for us for the equity that we invest. It may happen in the future whenever we reach to those levels, but I don't see that in the short term. I see still a lot of upside, especially in terms of revenues on pricing, and especially in terms of traffic.
I think that whenever we feel it's a mature asset, then yeah, we can, of course, rotate that like we have done with any other asset, and especially with financial investors that they are open to get returns of 7%, or even lower today. Not yet for the 407 or the managed lanes in the U.S.
Thank you. The next question comes from Elodie Rall from J.P. Morgan. With regards to your 3.5% margin target in construction, when do you think you could achieve this level? Can we expect a meaningful improvement as soon as next year, or do you expect a gradual improvement until 2024?
Well, you will see a very relevant improvement now in the year 2020. Just only elimination of the provision, normalize the situation. We expect that we'll be, of course, in a positive EBIT. Not yet, probably next year in the 3.5%, and it is mainly related to what I commented previously, that in these projects that will have this provision, especially I-66 and the Atlanta project. In both of them, we have zero results because it has been provisioned, the negative part, but still we charge the overhead, the allocation of the overhead to these projects. For the rest, I think we'll see a clear improvement, a positive EBIT for this year 2020, and it will gradually improve as long as these projects are terminated, that we'll see a stabilization, at least 3.5% that has commented previously.
We have been above these numbers in countries where we are local and also where we do projects internally.
Thank you. The next question comes from Insight, from Robert Crimes. Could you better define the 11% EBITDA growth per year target? Is this a consolidated EBITDA, a proportional EBITDA? Does it include new assets such as the I-66?
It's reported EBITDA. It's from 2020 to 2024, so it's normalized after the provision that we took last year, and it's including all the assets that we have in our business plan, including, of course, the I-66, but we'll see that just at the very end of the five-year period.
Thank you. The next question comes from Ángel Pérez, from Renta 4. Could you explain what your expected allocation is for the funds obtained from the services divestment, please?
Of course, what we do will depend on the activity cash flow generated every year, and also based on the industrial investments that we may have, especially in U.S. managed lanes in the future years. Now we want to keep that flexibility, and it has been the case in the past, and we'll continue to do that in the future. I think that we have to decide based on when we get this money coming from the divestments of the services division, at the same time, the activity cash flow, and the progress that we may have at that specific point of time. It will be decided every year and will be decided by our board based on those considerations.
Thank you. The next question comes from Guillermo Fernandez-Gao from Kepler Cheuvreux. Which assets in your portfolio today can you consider mature?
I don't want to explicitly name assets. I think that you can take your own conclusions. Those that don't have construction risk or traffic risk, and you're seeing that we cannot increase the revenues, of course, we may consider, especially in a situation that very low interest rates and that also we see a lot of interest for financial investors invest in this type of asset. It's something not different to what we have done in the past. You saw the divestment of Ausol during the last year, and we'll follow whenever we think that it has more value for a third party. We will announce or we'll comment in any specific asset whenever we take the final decision about that. Based on the criteria that I have defined, you can identify those.
Thank you. Also from Kepler. Could you share some economics on your car sharing mobility business, capital employed or margins? Any possibilities to expand to other cities from the ones you are present now, just to understand the potential value creation?
In the case of car sharing, as commented, it's Zity, we have that in Madrid. We expect to reach breakeven this year in Madrid. We're very close to that number. Next step is to launch Paris. We do it together with Renault. They are our partners for this. We don't have any further decision for the time being. Of course, we need to see if we make money in Spain first, in Madrid, and then how we are developing Paris, and if we see that we can reach breakeven. We'll be cautious to develop a new city, but always first making sure that we are profitable and we have a good business model. As commented, I think we have good information about traffic, about behavior, but it's also about operational capabilities. It's about data.
I think that with a partner together with Renault, I think that we can make money. It's a business that could be profitable. Of course, if it's not the case, like in any other thing, well, we will stop or we sell it. We are here to make money, and if we cannot, of course, we will stop immediately.
Thank you. The next set of questions come from BPI, from Bruno Silva. On construction, what is the expected free cash flow of the unit for 2020, and can you quantify the contribution from I-66?
I think that is very detailed. I think that when we present the results, we can comment further in more detail about the activity cash flow in the construction business for next year. Also, we'll give information about how we closed last year in terms of activity and cash flow for the different business and the construction. Based on that, you can take information about what it will be in the next year and the following years. I cannot comment about that now, but we'll give more detail in February with our results.
Thank you. Also from Bruno, and on the I-66, have the delays been mitigated already? What is the expected opening date at this point of the road?
I think that what we provision in the I-66, it was not related to the delay. It was more related to the expectations of what will be the results at the end of the project. We have plenty of time in the future. It is true that we have a lot of months that we need to do a lot of work. At the same time, we recently got an extension of additional six months, especially for the part of the general purpose lanes. I think that we feel comfortable now that we can finalize in December 2022. That is the final date that we had initially, plus the six months that I think we have now for the general purpose lanes. We don't see an issue for the time being related to the timing of opening the managed lanes.
Also from Bruno. Dividends from the toll roads, the EUR 3.3 billion, does that include the exceptional NTE dividend recently announced, and does it also include releverage effects eventually from I-77, 35W, and 3C?
What we are including now is our expectations of dividends from all our infra projects. Of course, if there is an initial dividend from any of the assets, of course it will be included in this period of time. However, NT was in the previous year, so I think that for the rest of the assets, of course, it happens something similar in LBJ or in any other, it will be included. NT was something that happened in 2019, so it will not be included in these five years' dividends. This is what is our expectations, based on the information we have today, and I think that is a conservative figure, now that we feel comfortable we can get from the assets that we have in Cintra.
Thank you. The next question comes from Nabil Ahmed from Barclays. In a best case scenario, how much of the EUR 12 billion pipeline could Ferrovial be awarded? How much could this imply in terms of equity contribution? Would you be able to fund these internally from your cash flows, or would you need to sell assets or raise equity?
Well, I think that this EUR 12 billion, of course, is all the work, all the jobs in which we are working today. Some of them are incipient in terms of projects that we are conversation with the DOTs in certain places. It's not something that, probably, the probability that it will happen will be low. We don't expect that first all these projects that we are trying to develop, they will be real projects that they happen, and then later it could be competitive. Being competitive, we can win them or not. I think that we have two things. That the project happen, and second, that we are able to win whenever it's a competitive situation. I cannot give you a percentage of probability that what will happen, because I don't know, but it's not a 50% probability. I think it's lower than that.
At the same time, hopefully we are at the problem that we have too many good projects, because I think that funding them, it will be not a difficult thing to do.
Thank you. The next question comes from Patrick Creuset at Goldman Sachs. Excuse me. Does your EBITDA target include the EBITDA from the I-66 and NTE 35W extension? Is it fully incorporating the targeted construction margin improvement and EUR 50 million corporate cost saving?
Yes, we are including everything there. Yeah.
Thank you. Can you please confirm that the scope of the 11% EBITDA growth target is the time horizon from end 2019 to 2024?
It's from 2020 to 2024. We are not including, as you know, the EBITDA in year 2019 was low because of the provision. We are normalizing that in year 2020. From the high level of EBITDA in 2020, improving 11% every year. Of course, including everything, all the projects that we have today, and also the savings that we are expecting. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question comes from Stéphanie D'Ath at RBC. Could you let us know when we should hear back from the appeal to be able to increase your stake in the 407 ETR?
No idea. We don't know. I think that's something will happen in the first half of this year, but we don't have any specific date of when we may know about it.
Thank you. The next question comes from Nicolas Mora at Morgan Stanley. On airports, what is your attachment to your 25% stake at Heathrow and 15% stake in AGS?
As long as we can get attractive return to our shareholders. As committed, I think especially, all of them are very good assets. I think that we are happy about and satisfied about the possibility of expansion of the airport. If the regulation is at the level that we cannot get an adequate return for our investors. Of course, if there are other players has more value for us, of course, we rotate the asset as we do with other cases. Hopefully it's not the case. Hopefully, we can get a good return, hopefully with a good expansion project or a very good asset, we can get the adequate return for our investors. We are open to rotate if that's the case, if we see that we cannot get the adequate return.
Thank you. Also from Nicolas on services, can you clarify what you wish to sell and keep, and what your ideal timeframe would be on the divestment?
We want to sell everything. That is very clear as part of the strategy. When? As fast as possible. I am worried about the when and also about the how much. I think that we will try to maximize both things. Ideally, we would like to do as fast as possible, of course. There are difficult business in terms of the number of projects, the number of contracts, and the number of countries. We will try to do it as fast as possible, but at the same time, always trying to get the maximum return for our shareholders.
Thank you. The next question comes from Tobias Werner at MainFirst. How comfortable are you about the two delivery schedules and budgets for the Heathrow expansion? How do you see this expansion in the context of current dividends?
I think that probably is something that is more for a question for Heathrow, not directly to me. I visited Heathrow, and I have met with the team there. Probably something that our team at Heathrow, they have more knowledge about how comfortable we are with the budget and with the timing. I think that is something that probably will need more information. We'll see at maybe at the end of 2021. It will take some more time. I think as commented, I would prefer not to give some information that may not be very precise. I think that, of course, I have met with the team, and I have heard about all the projects, but I think it's better then to give that information.
Thank you. The next question comes from Antonio Rodríguez-Vicens at BBVA. What is the maximum equity amount you intend to commit to electrification and water?
Has been very limited. I think in water, I think there will be very few opportunities and very small. In the case of electricity or investment, last investment in one transmission line was, I think, EUR 100 million of equity, if I remember well. It was 100? I think that number. I think we have two projects only, and we have to see other opportunities that are profitable, have an adequate return for us. As commented, they're limited, and the way we want to do this is rotate them very fast. Whenever we finish the construction of these projects, the idea is that, and we eliminate the construction risk, that we rotate them.
There are no further questions.
Okay. Thank you very much, all of you, for your questions. We have a new opportunity with the 2019 results at the end of February. Thank you very much.