Grenergy Renovables, S.A. (BME:GRE)
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Sep 28, 2022

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Hello, good morning, and welcome to our first half 2022 earnings results presentation. I'm Daniel Lozano, Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer. I'm here with David Ruiz de Andrés, CEO and Chairman of Grenergy, and María Rodríguez Gismero, our Sustainability Director. At the end of the presentation, there will be the Q&A session for sell-side analysts. I will let you know at the end how you can ask your questions. Now, I hand you over to David.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Daniel, and good morning, everyone. Once again, thanks very much for attending our presentation. Let's get started with the key highlights of the period in page 3. Moving to financial performance, we can see an important increase in all metrics compared to the first half last year. Revenue, it's EUR 107 million. This is up 30%. EBITDA, EUR 20 million, up 50%. Net profit is close to EUR 9 million. This is 30% more than last year in the same period. Total revenues, just looking at the split of revenues, out of the EUR 107 million, EUR 79 million came from our construction activities, both build to own and build to sell.

More than EUR 26 million energy sales, this is quite remarkable. This is up from just EUR 7 million in the same period last year. Again, this will increase exponentially in the next quarters and next years. EUR 1.5 million from our services division. I believe we are on track regarding our targets for the year. We will see an acceleration in the second semester in both build to own and build to sell activity. 600 megawatts already operational, and there will be more plants coming up. We will see a sharp increase in our build-to-sell activity, particularly in the last quarter of the year.

We only transfer 2 PMGD plants in the first half of the year for 24 MW, but we have several deals going on, which we expect to close in Q4, both in LatAm and in Spain. Going to the composition of the EBITDA, we generated the bulk of it from our energy division with close to EUR 18 million, compared to the EBITDA coming from our build to sell activity of just EUR 6 million. I make the same comments I made concerning the revenues. We are expecting a sharp increase in the second half of the year from both activities, particularly build to sell, and there will be a more balanced picture at the end of the year concerning build to own and build to sell EBITDA.

On the capital markets, the great news is we launched successfully, as you all know, and with great demand, our capital is increased of EUR 19 million. We can now say we're fully funded, at least until the end of 2024. This deal, we have to say, was originally scheduled for this fall or next winter. However, we saw the window of opportunity in June, and we decided to execute it, right? I believe it was a great decision, and we are now able to fully concentrate on the execution of the business plan. It's also worth mentioning that very recently, we also updated our commercial paper program and increased it to EUR 100 million from the first program of EUR 100 million we launched in 2021.

About operational execution, well, we currently have 13 gigawatts under different degrees of development in our three platforms. We expect this figure to keep increasing since we are moving into new markets and we are generating and identifying new opportunities. Again, we want to have the right staff in 2026, 2027. We need to create the projects now, and I believe this is where we create more value to the company. As you can see, we have 1.4 gigawatts in operation or under construction. At the end of this year, we believe this figure will exceed 2 gigawatts since we also have close to 750 megawatts in backlog and 500 out of these we will start construction very soon in Spain.

We'll give more information later on in the presentation about the maturity of our pipeline in Spain, and when we are planning to start construction. Right. In the last presentation of Q1, we informed about how we were starting construction. We were breaking ground in our Gran Teno project, which will be one of the largest ever built in Chile. Now we are announcing the starting of two important utility scale plants in Latin America. Also, Tamango plant in Chile, close to 50 megawatts, and Matarani plant in Peru of 96 megawatts.

Hopefully, again, we will announce very soon the starting of procurement and works in our large utility scale flagship plants in Spain, like particularly Tabernas, 300, and Ayora, 180 in Spain. I like to mention here how we keep constantly reinforcing our construction development teams to accomplish these targets. We now are a company with more than 300 employees. We are incorporating on average 15, 20 new people per month to the company, and it's really a fantastic effort from our human resources and talent team, and we really appreciate what they are doing. On the ESG front, we continue to make very good progress in the implementation of our action plan 2022, as María will comment on later.

We met the objectives set for the second quarter and with the definition of the energy efficiency and emissions reduction plan and the organization of internal training in sustainability. I'm also very proud to share some extraordinary news regarding our positioning in ESG ratings. Since our last presentation in May, two of the most relevant global ESG ratings upgraded our score, and they have positioned Grenergy in top positions, right? The MSCI ESG upgraded our rating to the highest score, triple A, a remarkable achievement really. Sustainalytics score also improved, ranking our company in sixth position out of 680 companies comprising the entire utilities group. In addition, we also received new coverage by ISS ESG with outstanding results, as María will explain.

These consistent positive results reinforce our position as an ESG leader and reflect the efforts and the good work that the entire team at Grenergy is doing pretty surely in the right direction. Lastly, I'm particularly pleased to see our commitment in the Quillagua project with the Aymara indigenous community to supply electricity from renewable sources fulfilled. It's just one more example of the many stories of social positive impact in the local communities located in the areas where we operate. Thanks, and I give the floor to Daniel for the financials.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Okay. Thank you, David. Let's move on to the financial part. If you can look at slide number 5, as David explained before, our total revenue reached EUR 107.4 million. That is a 30% increase compared with the previous year. Mainly the increase is in the energy division due to the operation of new facilities in Spain, like Escuderos or in Latin, mainly distribution projects in Chile and Colombia. Development and construction, EUR 79.6 million, due to the sale of two distribution asset in Chile that, as David said, there will be more in the second part of the year. Moving to the next slide, number 6, that is the way that those revenue reflected into the EBITDA. EBITDA moved to EUR 20.1 million.

That is 41.2% increase. Okay? Energy moved almost four times to EUR 17.7 million. Development and construction is a little bit lower due to the lower distribution asset we have sold in the period that will be offset in the second part of the year. Corporate expenses move up from EUR 2.2 million to EUR 4 million due to the more development team we have worldwide in our three platform that is creating the necessary pipeline to feed our IPP targets in the coming year. EBITDA margin remain in the same level of 2021, and the European platform represent 43% of the energy EBITDA this year. Moving to the next slide. This is what we have invested during the first semester, EUR 62.9 million.

You can see we have some development CapEx in Europe, EUR 5 million, and EUR 7 million in LatAm & USA. We have the investment due to the construction of the project we are connecting, EUR 5.2 million for utility-scale projects, and 45.7 for distribution projects that we will connect in the coming months. Both amounts, utility-scale and distribution, should increase in the second part of the year. In Slide 8, you will see the evolution of our cash position, starting with a cash balance of 68.7. We have the positive EBITDA of EUR 20.1 million. We had a negative impact in working capital due to suppliers, mainly EUR 49.3 million. Some financial expense cash out, 8.4. Exchange rate differences because of the appreciation of the dollar, 6.7.

The CapEx I have just explained. In the financial part, we have mainly the bond and commercial paper, EUR 72.3 million. Remember that we issued a green bond at the beginning of the year at very good rates, 4%. As well, some commercial paper. Then we have financial debt, mainly project debt, EUR 31.1 million. As David mentioned, a very good news regarding the share capital increase, EUR 90 million, to reach EUR 156.7 million by the end of the semester. In slide number 9, the overall leverage decreased to 5.6x, and it is mainly due to the share capital increase, EUR 90 million.

As well, there is a negative impact in the net debt due to the appreciation of the dollar as we have the Latin debt mainly in dollars, and there has been an appreciation. Finally, in slide number 10, we wanted to summarize that in June, we were able to raise EUR 90 million. The demand for this operation was huge. We had three times the initial demand for this operation. A very good book, plus 40% of the book was long-only account, and very strong international demand.

This share capital increase will allow us to keep reinforcing our storage division in our three different platforms, accelerate our expansion into US and Germany, mainly in Europe, and as well to finance capital needs to keep accomplishing our IPP targets. Then, I hand you back again to David. Thank you.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Daniel. Moving to slide 12, page 12, a summary of how our global footprint looks like. As I mentioned earlier on, we have 13 gigawatts under development, 5 gigawatt hours of storage. This is what we are going to need in the next few years for our build-to-own and build-to-sell activity. In November this year, as we do every year, we will give you some light on our targets for 2025. For the first time, I think we will give you some guidance on our targets for storage projects or delivery of storage projects as early as 2025. We are now in 11 countries, grouped in 3 platforms. We believe we are creating a very diversified portfolio.

We already have operational plans in six countries, and we need to make very sure we have the capacity to deliver more than one gigawatt per year, even more, if possible, in the coming three years. As we were stating in on the last presentation, we want to remain a leader in Latin America and Spain, where we still see a very remarkable growth ahead in the next few years in the three markets where we are most active, in Latin America, in Chile, Colombia, and Peru. We are rebalancing our activity to new markets in continental Europe, particularly I think Germany is extremely promising. In the US, after the IRA has been published, the Inflation Reduction Act, we believe this market is offering unbelievable opportunities for growth as well.

We are very happy with the decision we took a year ago of moving into the US. A quick update in Germany. We already have the office fully operational with the first five key positions closed, including our country manager. We might start giving some color on identified opportunities as early as Q1 2023. We have many more positions open, and we are trying to move as fast as possible in our development plan. Moving to slide 13, just a quick focus on the US market. We received fantastic news on August 7, when the IRA was approved.

This is giving an estimated allocation of $370 billion in clean energy. The framework of incentives gets clarified until the end of 2032 through the ITC and PTC mechanism. Also very good news is, well, the new, let's call them, mechanism to monetize the tax credits through direct pay or transferability. I think it's fantastic news because there is a lot more clarification on this market. It's really time to gamble in the U.S., time to scale up and accelerate our activity in the market.

We are also moving, as we explained in other presentations from the southeast, which is where Sofos Harbert initially had the core of its activity, to unregulated markets such as MISO and ERCOT, where we can close other types of PPAs with different off-takers, and we can also approach merchant financing or merchant PPA financing. Very promising situation for the US and we are extremely excited. Moving to the next slide, page 14. We even see a large increase in identified opportunities, new markets. You know, not all of these projects will make it to early stage. We.

We believe we need to have a large base of projects to make sure we go ahead and start investing development CapEx in the most promising ones, and this way increase the success rate from its early stage down, right? Going down again, we have 578 operational, 800 under construction, 750 backlog. All three categories together, close to 2.2 gigawatt. I think we are giving a lot of visibility on our 2023 targets. In the next table, we update every quarter. We show region by region, market by market, the status of development. We can see how the new markets are already maturing, like the United States, Italy, U.K.

You can see some advanced development in some of these markets now. A closer look at these slides on page 16. We give full visibility on the situation of our most mature pipeline. You can now see that apart from Teno, we have two new large utility-scale projects under construction now, Tamango in Chile and Matarani in Peru. In Spain, this is very fresh news, but we finally got the DIA, the environmental permits for Ayora project. We have been getting that during the last month. It's altogether four projects. I think we're only missing one DIA. We are very close to start construction this project in Ayora. Jose Cabrera, we also got the DIA.

Regarding Tabernas, we are waiting. We get positive news, but we are waiting to get the DIAs in the last quarter. Let's just stress that we are unfortunately suffering delays of 9-10 months on the date that originally we were expecting these DIAs to get issued. If you remember the government in Spain, there was a deadline in April this year, but they gave some extra months. Well, the negative effect was that we believe that this meant an automatic delay in some of the projects. Unfortunately, this has been the case in Tabernas and Ayora. Finally, we are getting the DIAs, and we are ready to move forward.

The only positive effect is that, okay, we are starting later. We will deliver these plans 2-3 quarters later than expected, but we are benefiting from higher energy prices, so it's kind of a positive effect, right, on this. Well, energy storage, this is the situation of our pipeline. We will give plenty more information in the next update in November. I think for the first time we will give some light on our targets for as early as 2025. It's gonna be an important moment for us. As we have been mentioning, we believe the perspectives are very promising in this segment. Thanks. I give the floor to María on ESG.

María Rodríguez Gismero
Sustainability Director, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, David. Well, by now, probably most of you are already familiar with this part of the presentation, where we provide you with an update on the progress of our ESG action plan. This was a commitment for transparency and regular reporting that we put forward last year, if you remember. Well, for this second quarter, we had scheduled two targets. The first one is closely related to the emissions reduction targets that Grenergy has set for 2030 and 2050 and that are in line with the 1.5 degrees level of ambition. It is the definition of an energy efficiency and emissions reduction plan.

This plan lays down 10 measures with very concrete targets and time horizons for implementation, and was approved by management. The measures cover aspects like the transition of the fleet of vehicles to hybrid and electric models, the introduction of low carbon solutions at construction sites, training in efficient driving, risk awareness activities, full replacement of lighting to highly efficient LED at office, switch to general supply of renewable electricity, as well as the introduction of the internal price of carbon in the shape of internal reporting system in a first stage. Secondly, we were able to fulfill the second objective by organizing internal training in sustainability. The team provided three sessions online and face-to-face in both English and Spanish to more than 170 employees located globally, including senior management and key staff.

In the next slide, as David mentioned earlier, we are thrilled really to communicate a further improvement in global ESG ratings that continue to strengthen our leading position among peers. Sustainalytics improved our score from 13.6 to 10.2, and as a result, our company now ranks 6 out of 680 companies in the entire utilities group covered by the agency globally. With this improved score, we continue to be located in the low risk area, but really in the limit of the negligible risk of material financial impacts driven by ESG factors. Sustainalytics, again, considers our management of all ESG material aspects, so governance, business ethics, human capital, biodiversity, among others, as strong. We also achieved the highest rating, AAA, by MSCI ESG.

Very happy with this, news, with an overall industry-adjusted score of 9.8 out of 10. The report highlights leading industry peers on things like capturing opportunities, renewable energy, talent attraction initiatives, and governance structures, among others. In addition to that, ISS ESG also initiated coverage of our company, and this first assessment also resulted in a very positive score ahead of all our peers. ESG ratings are important to inform all our stakeholders about our ESG performance, but they are also important because they set the expectations and the best practices in sustainability.

This consistency in positive results, achieving different assessments, recognizes the efforts of entire team at Grenergy in every project, across every business area, and in every country, and reaffirms that the work that we are doing to implement our sustainability strategy is certainly going in the right direction, as David mentioned before. That will be all on my side. Thank you.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Okay. Thank you, María. We are moving to the Q&A session. If you have any question, please send a direct message to the administrator, and he will let you know how you can ask. Okay. I think we have RBC administrator.

Fernando
Analyst, RBC

Okay. I think I am unmuted. Can you hear me?

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Yeah. Yes.

Fernando
Analyst, RBC

Okay. Good morning, everybody. It's David, María, Daniel, and thank you for taking my question. You have around 800 megawatts of build-to-own target for 2022. Looking at your expectations of installations for Q4, it looks like that is no longer possible. Obviously correct me if my calculations are wrong, and in any case, if you can update us with the target for 2022 that you have at the moment. If there is any slip of installation for 2022, will you maintain the 2023 target to have 2.4 gigawatts?

This relates to this question. You can provide some detail about when you expect to start construction of Ayora and Jose Cabrera, and then for the environmental permit expectation of Tabernas, and please for Clara Campoamor as well. Thank you.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you. Thank you, Fernando, and good morning. Okay. About the. Well, as you know, we give guidance every year, right? We update this guidance every November when we submit the quarterly results for the third quarter. We've been doing this for many years. We will update the targets again two months from now, and we will give some light on 2025. As we mentioned earlier on, for the first time, we will include some targets for storage as well, maybe coming from Chile.

We feel confident with our target of replying to your main question, concerning our target of 2.4 gigawatts for the end of 2023. If you consider, we have 0.6 operational, 0.8 under construction, and out of the 0.7, well, 750 megawatts we have backlog. Most of these, if not all, will be under construction in Q4 this year. Maybe the only pending environmental permits are, as you mentioned, Tabernas. We believe that according to the conversations, all the reports are positive. It's just a matter of bottleneck in Andalusia, right? We are expecting these DIAs before the end of the year, hopefully earlier than expected.

The good news is from the last update that we got the DIAs in Ayora. We are only missing one of the four SPVs, and we're expecting that in the next few weeks. We are ready to start at any time. We are now negotiating with Siemens and ABB for the substation materials and the transformers, which is what takes longer. But I think this project will be moved to under construction very soon. Also, Jose Cabrera, we got the DIA also this summer, and we still are not 100% sure whether it will be a build to sell or will be a build to own. It's something we still need to decide.

Anyway, we are going to start construction before the end of the year. The PMGDs in Chile, it's business as usual, so we will start construction of them anytime. We are also considering this new package of Colombia. There are more advanced development projects that will move to backlog in our next update. Some of them will move very quickly to under construction, like PMGDs in Chile and in Colombia. All in all, we are confident about the 2.4 gigawatt target for 2029, 2023. In November, we will update our expectation for this year, right? It seems very difficult that we're gonna reach 800, as you mentioned, maybe half of this. There will be a delay.

I think we will hit 1.5 gigawatt maybe Q2 this year, right? The positive effect, as I was mentioning, of this delay, if there is a positive effect, is that we are benefiting from higher energy prices in the PPAs of these plants, thanks to these delays. If we had closed the PPAs three quarters ago, we were going to deliver the plants earlier on, but with a lower PPA price. Somehow we even see a positive effect on this delay. We are not losing projects. We are going to deliver the 2.5, 2.4 gigawatt at the end of 2023.

It's just a matter of moving some plants in Spain, because in Latin America we don't see these problems due to the delays in permitting. It's not a problem of supply chain, it's not a problem of execution. It's just the problem, the constraint of permitting in Spain that we have been identifying for a very long time.

Fernando
Analyst, RBC

David, just one clarification on Clara Campoamor, if you can comment on how this project is going?

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Yeah. Well, we are considering Clara Campoamor for our 2024 targets, right? Not 2023. This is the trust thing, so we are putting this in a different basket. We are doing fine. I mean, this project has different deadlines. It's a very different animal, right? Because the projects are located in Castilla-La Mancha, mostly, and some are in Madrid, and they are evacuating in Madrid, so there are longer. It has a challenging interconnection line. We are sharing this line with other promoters. Things are going fine, right? I think we will maybe in November give more light. We are talking about two projects that are sharing the same interconnection line, but they're in two different substations.

There is a possibility that one project goes faster than the other one, and one project we can start construction at one point next year, at the end of next year, and the other one gets delayed a little bit farther, right? That's the situation. This project is not subject to any of the auctions in Spain or anything. It's coming from the previous regime. That's the situation in Clara Campoamor.

Fernando
Analyst, RBC

Thank you.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Fernando. Now we have, Jorge Guimarães from JB Capital. Hello, George. Yes, now we can hear you.

Jorge Guimarães
Managing Director and Co-Head of Equity Research, JB Capital

Hi. Hi, good morning, everyone. Okay, question related to CapEx and interest rates. How do you see recent evolution of CapEx costs? If you maintain the EUR 0.6 million estimate for 2022 and 2023? That would be the first one. The second one is related to the evolution of interest rates. How is it affecting your cost of funding? As of today, where would a project finance financing here in Spain be closed at what level? Just a ballpark figure. Thank you very much.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Jorge Guimarães, and good morning. Well, about CapEx, let me find. I think it's this one. You know, in the investor presentations, we try to update this slide. Okay. You're asking me about the CapEx per megawatt, right, Jorge Guimarães? About the situation of CapEx.

Jorge Guimarães
Managing Director and Co-Head of Equity Research, JB Capital

Yes.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Yes. Okay, fine. Well, we made this estimation earlier this year, and I think it's. It wasn't far from reality. Maybe the modules, I think we just closed at EUR 20-23.5. We're very close to the estimations we made. This is the current price of modules to be delivered in Q1 or right after Chinese New Year. It's fine. Even it could go down in dollar terms. Just consider that, you know, the higher the dollar is traded against yuan and euros, some of these numbers are modified, right? In US dollar terms. This is euro terms. The trackers are.

I think this price will actually go slightly down because it's really affected by steel prices that went down. Very recently they have going up again, but we believe it's still so temporary. I think the good news is maybe logistics that is going down. Some are talking about free fall. I couldn't be so optimistic. It's true that we are now securing prices of containers from China to Europe for $4,000, $5,000, when they were at $8,000, $9,000 for one 40-foot container, and this is still expensive, we believe, compared to the situation before COVID, but it definitely has a lower impact. This part here, logistics, we are looking at a lower figure.

All in all, we think that CapEx, we can say prices are stable and relatively going down, coming into next year. We don't really expect big surprises here, right? Because modules, trackers, inverters, everything's going slightly down. I think it really depends on whether it's measured in dollar terms or in euro terms, but it's pretty stable. Energy prices on the other hand are much higher than we expected a year ago, right? The IRR of our projects, the project IRRs are definitely much higher than we expected. But obviously, talking about the interest rates now, I think if you're about to close long-term financing in Europe, right?

You might be talking about maybe 3% plus the spread, right? I think we might get close in. We might be in around 4.5%-5% within this range, all included, right? In Latin America, if you're considering, we might be talking about maybe 5.5%, in some cases close to 6%, right? That's the situation for long-term financing right now in both regions. Some lenders and, you know, in Chile, we are looking at capital markets to refinance, in the long term some of our plants and some lenders are talking about a potential decrease in interest rates as early as next year, right?

It might be a good time also to issue some project loans at one point, right? That's the situation on interest rates. The market remains very liquid, and there are many options in traditional with traditional lenders or direct lending, capital markets, and we don't see really a problem there. Regarding the percentage of leverage, it's well. Considering that the energy prices are much higher, then we are not facing really a problem there. We are still considering between 70% and 80% for senior debt in our projects in Europe.

Jorge Guimarães
Managing Director and Co-Head of Equity Research, JB Capital

Many thanks.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Jorge Guimarães. Okay. Please, if you can ask just one question. We have many analysts waiting to ask. Now we have from Barclays, José Ruiz. Hi, José.

Jose Ruiz
South European Utilities Analyst, Barclays Investment Bank

Can you hear me?

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Yes.

Jose Ruiz
South European Utilities Analyst, Barclays Investment Bank

Hi. Morning. Sorry.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Morning.

Jose Ruiz
South European Utilities Analyst, Barclays Investment Bank

Just one question. I'm asking about the flexibility of the PPA signing both in terms of price revision, considering that some of them you might have signed long time ago, probably at low thirties, and also in terms of timing, considering that you're delaying some of the projects, if you can delay basically the start of the PPA. Thank you very much.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you. Thank you very much. Very relevant question. Yeah. Well, we only have one project, which is the PPA we have for Belinchón with an Iberian utility, where we actually renegotiated the terms of the PPA. This is because we had an exit clause. We had the possibility of paying one penalty and exit the PPA. Obviously, the market conditions have changed dramatically. We closed this PPA, I think in early 2021 in low 30s, as you mentioned. We have. I mean, the price is not public, but now the price is in mid-40s, right? We have completely renegotiated the terms of PPA.

The PPA, the new PPA has been signed already and is the one we're gonna use for financing. We have also changed the starting of the PPA, and the PPA will now start in January 2025 instead of mid-2023, it was originally. It's not just we are having a better price for the energy, it's also that we are getting one and a half year full merchant. This is giving us a very large a big security margin. We are following this same strategy with the new plants in Spain, Ayora and Tabernas, because there is a very high risk that you don't get on time, and then you have to liquidate by differences or afford very large penalties.

We want to get rid of that risk or minimize this risk, moving the start of the PPA to maybe Q2, Q3 2025. We also believe there is a very interesting upside going full merchant during the first quarters. That's the way we are approaching the new PPAs. The PPAs are now fully negotiated for Ayora and Tabernas. The moment we are about to start construction, we will make public if it's possible with the fixing of the offtaker. We normally don't state the prices, but we will try to give as much insight as possible.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you. Very clear.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, José. Now we have Flora from CaixaBank BPI. Hi, Flora.

Flora
Analyst, CaixaBank BPI

Yes. Hi. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. I have a question on asset sales. You comment on the acceleration in build to sell in the second half. Can you be a bit more specific? And also whether you are thinking of accelerating this strategy in the sense that in this expectation of higher interest rates, we have some companies already commenting on accelerating minority sales and asset sales to try to take advantage of this window of opportunity. If you can just comment if there is any change in the demand for these assets, it would be useful. Thank you.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you. Thank you, Flora. Well, on the build to sell, it's traditionally we have concentrated most of the deals in Q4, in the second half of the year, and this year is no exception, right? I think so far we have transferred just two small PMGD projects in Chile, so this is like 24. If you remember our guidance was between 100 and 200. So we still stick to this guidance. We have several deals on the table, in some cases very advanced, both in Latin America, where in Chile we might transfer a small package of PMGDs. We have some larger projects in the north of Chile that is also a possibility to transfer.

We have José Cabrera in Spain, as I mentioned earlier on, that it's a plan of 50 megawatts. We need to take the decision now whether we keep it as an add-on to Belinchón, same, maybe same PPA, same finance, and we keep it in our balance, or whether we transfer 100% of this plant, which is what we had originally expected, and there are very good options in the market. We are also looking, and I think this is something we have already mentioned. We are looking at minority interests and the sale of minority interests in some of the large plants, maybe Escuderos and Belinchón.

It's something we are still exploring and we believe it's a way to capture value in the long term and being able to reinvest that in an acceleration in other markets. If we are reading the news, many companies, large and mid and small are doing this. There is a very great interest in many players for also these minority shares in interest in some mature assets. We have many options right now. I think in November we will give more light and more information, right? But yes, there are many possibilities to accelerate, also build to sell strategy. This is part of our DNA. We've been doing this every single year, right?

We will keep doing that. The options now are wider. I mean, it could be a minority interest in large plants, it could be transfers of PMGDs, as we've done in the past. We have now possibilities also in Colombia and Peru. We are enlarging the theater of possibilities, right?

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Flora. Now we have Henry Tarr from Berenberg. Hello, Henry.

Henry Tarr
Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research, Berenberg

Hi. Hi guys, and thanks for taking my questions. Just one or maybe one with two parts. On the PPAs, thanks for talking about those earlier. I guess, some others are talking about numbers sort of well above the mid-forties at this point. I just wondered whether duration plays a part here. When you're looking at the new projects coming in, what sort of duration are you looking for on the PPAs? Just sort of secondly, I guess, on the supply chain side, is it now reliable? Ultimately, once you get the environmental permit in place, you're then pretty confident about the timelines?

Are you still seeing, you know, delays to key components coming across, which makes, you know, construction completion a little bit more uncertain? Thanks.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thanks. Thanks Henry for your question. It's tricky to compare one PPA to another. We always say that you never really compare apples with apples. It's true that if you close a PPA, I mean, we are normally targeting 12 years now, in some cases even 15 years, because there is market to secure such a long period of time for the solar profile, and I think it's good news. The starting point of PPA really affects the price. I mean, you cannot compare a PPA starting in mid-2023, for 12 years, and maybe this is in the high 40s, even 50 now, right?

To a PPA starting two and a half years from now, maybe in mid-2025, for 12 years, because, you know, you're benefiting from if you connect the plant earlier on, you are keeping the upside of merchant for you, and you're not passing it through to the offtaker. So definitely the price is different. I think we might be in the low 40s, maybe going to mid-40s, right? That's. So this is basically what we're doing. We still believe that is the right way ahead. I mean, even some of our peers are considering full merchant financing.

We honestly believe that securing a high percentage of your estimated generation in the long term is the right choice, right? I think it's something that we strongly believe, but we are trying to move this starting point of the PPA as late as possible, right? Because we believe there's an upside there, and the more security buffer we have, the better, right? The main problem is, really, in our view now, definitely permitting, right? There are no supply chain constraints right now.

If I have to mention one, maybe it's the long delivery terms that some equipment providers are giving, particularly for transformers and substations, because you can only work with General Electric, Siemens, ABB. We have like a bunch of what? 3, 4 potential suppliers. They're all fully booked, and you really need to make sure you have your slot, and they're gonna give you like sometimes 12, 13, even 14 months, when before COVID, they were giving you 8, 9 months. This is the most delicate, the most difficult point concerning supply chain. But regarding panels or containers, you know, logistics was really an issue one year ago, right? Exactly. It was extremely difficult to get containers at one point. That's no longer an issue.

I think the rest of materials is really not a problem. Our major concern regarding execution is permitting. Unless we get the DIAs, we cannot make sure guarantee. What we are doing now in large flagship projects like Tabernas and Ayora, we have been already negotiating with Siemens in this case for quite a while. Everything is kind of ready. We are trying to keep our slot even if the DIAs is not received. The moment we can, we get the DIAs, we secure the slot, and we guarantee that this will be operational, the substation, at the end of 2023.

Henry Tarr
Co-Head of Energy and Environment Research, Berenberg

That's great. Thanks very much.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Cheers.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Henry. It is 12, but we're gonna go for some more question. We have Anis from Oddo.

Anis
Sell-Side Financial Analyst, ODDO BHF

Yes. Good morning. Thanks, Daniel, and good morning, David and Maria. Just one question from my side, and I will stay in the PPA, but not in Spain, but in Chile. Could you please give us an update on the current PPA environment in Chile? And have you signed PPAs for the Teno and the Tamango projects there? And if yes, could you please give us some details on PPAs? Thanks. Some question, if I may, on Matarani project in Peru. Thank you.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much for your question. It's well, in concerning Teno, Tamango, and indeed Matarani, even if it's in Peru, we will be working with quite surely with the same offtaker, which is a large European utility. It's not yet public, but I think we will sign the final versions because so far what we have is a term sheet, but it's nearly finalized. I think we will announce this PPA in the next few weeks, even as early as next week. It will be with a large European utility for between 12 and 15 years. We will use the same offtaker for the three projects, whether if they are in Chile or in Peru.

It will be quite a simple 400 MW deal, and 300 of them will be located in Chile, Gran Teno and Tamango, and 96 will be located in Peru. We are talking about between 12 and 15 years. We cannot disclose the price of the PPAs. Will be lower than those we are closing in Spain. We're talking about different types of PPAs because they are adjusted to inflation. We also get payments on capacity and the radiation is higher, so we are talking about different animals. It's the situation of PPA market in Chile is not as liquid as in Spain. It's a lot more challenging to get a PPA.

The options are very limited, and I think we're very lucky to have found this possibility. If you remember, we made like a process, it was like a reverse auction. It was very successful and that's the way we found this possibility. Well, we hope we can enlarge this PPA in the future to other projects that are now in advanced development phase.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Okay. Thank you, Anis. Now, I think we have from Kempen.

Paul
Analyst, Kempen

Yeah. Hi. Hello.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Hello, Paul.

Paul
Analyst, Kempen

Yeah. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Just a quick one on CapEx. If you can come back to the slide that we are presenting that's in your corporate presentation. Essentially you're saying that CapEx for solar PV, particularly the cost of panels is broadly stable, even slightly decreasing compared to last year. I'm trying to reconcile this with the fact that the cost of raw materials and the cost of the main components, so all the way from polysilicon to the wafer to the cells, all of that seems to be increasing substantially. I'm trying to reconcile basically this CapEx flat, let's say the cost of panels that's remaining flat with the higher price of commodities.

In your view, does that imply that we could see higher prices for panels in the future, or is that already embedded in the current price that you are showing?

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Hi, Paul. Thanks for the question. Yeah, it makes really a lot of sense, your question, right? I mean, we've been buying panels for, I think we connected our first plant in 2007, so for 15 years so far. I can tell you that it's more supply and demand market. I mean, it's not really linked strictly to the cost of raw materials. It's in the long term, you can say, yes, it is somehow linked. Module manufacturing is more related to the situation of the market. Also, you have to keep in mind that there are gains in efficiency every year.

Every year, the same panel produces more, and that's a way of also so somehow it gets reduced the price of per watt, but simply for this gain of efficiency. It's more related to the situation of the market. The situation of the market now, you know, last year, there were big announcements, very big plans of expansion for the largest manufacturers. I think in this slide, this is something we need to update for 2022, but only LONGi, it now has declared a capacity over 50 gigawatts per year. This is one single manufacturer, right? It's able to produce everything Europe as a continent needs for one year, right? It's really amazing. You're talking about huge capacity expansions.

I believe there is kind of an oversupply right now in the market. This is my belief. Obviously, if you ask the major manufacturers, they're never gonna say that. From our experience, we feel that prices are coming down now everybody's quoting you lower forward prices, especially after Q2 next year, Q3 next year. We believe even if considering the very high demand from some markets, we believe that the price of modules will still get down. We can even see prices below $0.20 at some point at the end of next year. It's really again, it's very hard to predict.

Prices of trackers and inverters is, as you say, I mean, they're really linked to prices, steel prices, and it is really 80% of the price is directly linked to the cost of steel. It's very. It's a lot more simple to predict how they're going to behave. But that's more or less it. The other factor is logistics, really. It's logistics where at one point were irrelevant before COVID. You need 3, maybe normally 3 containers on average per megawatt. If you consider that the price before COVID was, like, $2,000 per container, so you were maybe spending $6,000-$7,000 just to ship the panels from China to Europe.

Right now, at one point last year, at the end of 2021, this figure skyrocketed and it was really becoming a very serious problem. At one point, we were paying like $15,000-$20,000 per 40 container. Now the prices are getting relaxed. They're falling quite a lot. They're now like $4,000-$4,500. It's getting better. This figure is lower than we initially expected. That's. I'm not sure if I replied to your question, Paul.

Paul
Analyst, Kempen

Yeah. It was very clear. Thank you.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you, Paul. I think we have the very last question from Eduardo Renta 4.

Eduardo
Analyst, Renta 4

Hi. Can you hear me?

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Yes.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Yes.

Eduardo
Analyst, Renta 4

Okay. Just a very quick question about working capital. I think that you mentioned something about that there was an impact with suppliers.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Mm-hmm.

Eduardo
Analyst, Renta 4

This figure was higher than I expected, and I would appreciate it if you could give more detail on this number.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Okay. David, if you want, I can answer this question.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Yeah. Thank you, Eduardo. I leave this one to you, Daniel.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Actually, the impact is coming from the supplier amount. As you can see at the end of 2021 in the balance sheet, due to some big CapEx invoices, we had pending to be paid, of course. We have EUR 83.7 million. And right now we have just EUR 28 million. That is an impact of EUR 55.7 million, while the total impact in working capital is barely that EUR 49.3 million. That's the reason mainly. If Eduardo, you have more questions, you can call me later.

Eduardo
Analyst, Renta 4

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you. Okay. I think there is no more question.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Okay. Thank you very much once again, and have a fantastic day. Have a lovely week. Thank you.

Daniel Lozano
Chief Strategy and Capital Markets Officer, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you.

David Ruiz de Andrés
CEO and Chairman of the Board, Grenergy Renovables

Thank you too. Thank you. Bye bye.

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