Iberdrola, S.A. (BME:IBE)
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Apr 27, 2026, 5:44 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 26, 2022

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Buenos días a todos. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, we would like to offer a warm welcome to all of you who have joined us today for our 2022 first quarter results presentation. As usual, we will follow the normal format given by in our presentations. We will begin with an overview of the results and the main development during the period given by the senior executive team that is with us. Our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galán, Mr. Armando Martínez, Business CEO, and finally, Mr. Pepe Sáinz, CFO. Following this, we'll move on to the Q&A session. I would also like to highlight that we are only going to take questions submitted via the web. Please ask your question only through our webpage, www.iberdrola.com. Finally, we expect that today's event will not last more than 60 minutes.

Hoping that this presentation will be useful and informative for all of you, now, without further ado, I would like to give the floor to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galán. Thank you very much again. Please, Mr. Galán.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Thank you, Ignacio. Good morning, everyone, and thank you very much for your participation in today's conference call. Before starting this presentation, I would like to dedicate a few words of solidarity to the people of Ukraine. Their strength and courage are an example for the whole world. Our thoughts are with them. We hope this invasion will end as soon as possible, reinstating peace and freedom for all Europeans.

Moving to the first quarter result, net profit reached EUR 1,058 million, up 3% as the contribution of international businesses, in particular in United States and Brazil, where net profit increases 33% and 20%, offset the 29% decrease in the net profit in Spain due to impact of the high energy prices that were not passed on to our customers with fixed prices agreed previously. EBITDA increases 5% to EUR 2,151 million, driven by growth in networks. While production and customer was negatively affected by high prices in Spain as mentioned, and as well in the U.K.

Gross investment reached EUR 2,100 million, for a total close to EUR 10 billion in the last three months, during which we installed 3,500 MW of new renewable capacity with 7,500 under construction that will provide additional growth in the future. Of this capacity, 2,600 MW correspond to offshore wind in France, Germany, U.S., where we have signed new PPAs for 1,200 MW in Massachusetts. In addition, we have already received planning consent for the whole 2,100 MW East Anglia Hub in the U.K., giving more visibility to our growth in offshore wind over the next decade. In networks, we have also accelerated investment in all geographies, adding EUR 100 million to our asset base, including new transmission project in U.K. and Brazil.

We have managed to combine this expansion with a balanced business and financial profile following the path of the last two decades, putting us in an optimal position to navigate the macro and commodity scenario created by the invasion of Ukraine and the recovery after the pandemic. We have shown more than ever the need to undo the dependency of fossil fuels, especially in areas like European Union, given its high share of energy imports, which in the case of gas, reach 90% of the total consumption, more than 45% from Russian origin. The solution is to accelerate electrification through more investment in renewable networks and storage. If we have expanded renewable faster, today we will be far less vulnerable to these external shocks. We know the way to get there.

The framework created by European Climate Law, the Green Deal, and the Fit for 55 package will now and could also be called Fit for Self-Sufficiency. The solution to this crisis will come from more Europe and more coordinated action following the guidelines set by European Commission in the toolbox and the REPowerEU communication. Every time Europe has remained united, things have gone well for Europeans, especially during crisis. Instead of trying to create a special regional exception, like one proposed by the Iberian market, we must look for common solutions. Even more, when the situation in Spain is no different from the rest of Europe, spot and forward prices are similar or below other European countries. Spain is not an energy island.

Our 8% nominal interconnection capacity become 20% if we consider our share of renewables in the calculation of peak demand, or even 30% compared to average demand. The utilization factor of interconnection and the price convergence between Spain and France shows that these markets are well integrated. Finally, there are no windfall profit as you can see in our results. There is one aspect in which unfortunately Spain is different. The wrong design of the regulated tariff, which is linked to the volatility of spot prices when even in Portugal, with the same wholesale market, has a totally different system linking to a basket of forward prices. Other European countries do not even have regulated tariff, which in fact are expected to disappear in Europe by 2025 unless countries justify the need for them.

What we need is to incentivize the acceleration of deployment of clean energies, to promote long-term contract, for instance, through tax incentive for consumers, and to support market-based solutions for the long term. As in principle, we must avoid taking a structural measure to solve short-term situation. Some are questioning the proper functioning of European electricity market. We believe the market are working correctly, just reflecting an extraordinary situation created by gas market dynamics. We do not oppose market improvement, but they have to be done in coordinated way and designed for the long term after careful and rational analysis. The assessment of wholesale market design by the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, ACER, that will be completed in May, is great opportunity, and Iberdrola is ready to continue contributing to this analysis following our strong belief in the need for a fluent dialogue between agents and administration.

Moving to operating result, EBITDA reached almost EUR 3 billion, up 5%, showing the group a strong underlying performance, thanks to the increasing contribution of international businesses, which represent two-thirds of the total, proving the optimal geographical diversification of Iberdrola businesses. Networks, the EBITDA grew 20%, representing 54% for the total operating result, thanks to the high asset base in all geographies and increasing revenues driven by tariff reviews, mainly U.S. and Brazil. The EBITDA of energy production and customer was down 9%, affected by lower wind and hydro factors in several geographies.

The planned solar and nuclear outage of our Cofrentes power plant, which was offset by the positive impact of the ruling in Spain, and the negative performance in retail in the U.K. and Spain due to the need to buy energy in wholesale market at prices that were not passed to our customers with 3 fixed-price contracts. We also had the contribution of 3,500 new renewable MW installed during the last 12 months. With significant increases in installed capacity in Brazil, up 15% after the commissioning of Chafariz complex close to 500 MW, and the rest of the world where capacity increased 30% year-on-year, driven by new wind, solar PV, and battery storage facilities. As mentioned, we have continued the acceleration of our investment.

In the last 12 months, we have reached close to EUR 10 billion, thanks to EUR 2,016 million invested during the first quarter, with more than 90% allocated to networks and renewables. Network investment represents 38% of the total, with growth coming mainly from Brazil and Spain. Renewables contribute to more than half of total investment, driven mainly by the U.K., where we have multiplied our investment by three, in line with increasing ambition of the British government. Investment increased also in the United States, Brazil, and the rest of the world, mainly in offshore wind in France and Germany, and onshore wind and solar in Australia. In the last 12 months, we have installed 3,500 new MW of capacity. 1,200 correspond to solar PV, mostly in Spain and the U.S. and Australia.

1,100 in onshore wind, primarily in Brazil, United States, and the rest of the world. More than 1,000 to storage, driven mainly by our Gigabattery in Portugal, the Tâmega hydro pump and storage facility, and the new battery storage in the U.K. And Australia. On top of that, we have more than 7,500 currently under construction. One-third is in Spain, almost another third in United States, and the remaining 35% in the rest of the world and Brazil.

By technologies, its capacity under construction includes almost 2,600 in offshore wind in the United States and Europe, 3,400 MW of solar PV, 1,400 in onshore wind, and 200 MW of storage technology, including the third unit of the Tâmega pump storage hydro complex, and 50 MW of battery storage located in the U.K. We expect this acceleration new capacity to continue in the coming months and years, supported by our pipeline of 90,000 MW in geographies with increasing clean energy ambition and different routes to market, including customer base, bilateral contracts, and PPAs, as well as auctions, allowing us to be selective to maximize return and minimize risk.

In United States, we have more than 22,000, of which 5,300 are offshore wind, 2,600 onshore, and 14,000 solar PV. In Spain and Portugal, we have 16,000, mostly in solar PV, hydro, and onshore wind. In U.K., over the last year, we more than doubled our pipeline to reach 15,000 MW, mostly in offshore wind, thanks to the positive result of the ScotWind auction, where ScottishPower was awarded seabed rights for three projects with total capacity of 7,000 MW, one fixed project, two large-scale floating projects in partnership with Shell. The rest of our pipeline is spread over the geographies, mainly in the rest of the world, where two-thirds or 24,000 MW correspond to offshore wind.

In the last year, we have reinforced our leadership in this technology, expanding our portfolio coverage in new markets, all of them with high growth potential and a stable framework. We've taken significant steps in all the projects that will be operational before 2027. We have a combined capacity of 7,000 MW. In the U.S., Avangrid signed the PPA for 1,300 MW Commonwealth Wind project with Massachusetts distribution companies. In the U.K., we have already obtained the consent for the 2,100 MW of our East Anglia Hub project, which will mobilize GBP 6 billion to become one of the largest renewable project in the world, contributing to the success of the ambition of clean energy plan in U.K. government. The construction of all our projects is also progressing well.

In Saint-Brieuc, the installation of foundation continues, and the project will be operational in 2023, adding 500 MW in France. In Germany, works at Baltic Eagle are focused on foundation as well, and the project will start production in 2024, followed by Windanker in 2026 for a combined capacity of 300 MW. Lastly, the first large-scale offshore wind farm in U.S., Vineyard Wind 1, is progressing quite well with all key milestones on track. The design and procurement of Park City Wind are advancing according to the schedule. Beyond 2027, we have growth opportunities to develop 25,000 additional MW in our traditional market, in other geographies with a strong potential, both in European countries like Sweden or Poland and in Asia. In networks, we invested EUR 100 million during the first quarter with Brazil, United States as the main destination.

In Brazil, we keep progressing in our distribution investment plan and our transmission project for a total investment of EUR 250 million. In the United State , we are preparing the new rate cases for the next three years in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Maine, which will be filed in the next months. Also, in Maine, following the improvement in the quality of service raised by CMP, the rate of return increased to 9.25%. In the U.K., we have received a preliminary approval for the Eastern Green Link subsea transmission line between Scotland and England. ScottishPower has 37% stake in one of its two projects with a capacity of 2,000 MW and a total investment of GBP 1.5 billion, GBP 550 million for us.

The line will be regulated asset under RIIO-T2 regime, and it's expected to come into operation in 2027. We are also analyzing additional opportunities arising from the new energy security strategy of U.K. government, which will for sure require massive investment in transmission. As well as distribution, we continue preparing the RIIO-ED2 framework. In January, the Customer Engagement Group published its report. We was supportive of the ScottishPower plan, saying the needs met in many areas exceed Ofgem expectations. We expect Ofgem draft determination by the end of June. Finally, in Spain, our distribution subsidiary, i-DE, obtained from the European Recovery Fund, EUR 180 million to promote innovative digitalization project, as well as deployment of public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. As part of the company plan to invest EUR 500 million up to 2024 in digitalization.

As you have seen, the current context made more necessary than ever to guarantee energy self-sufficiency and decarbonization. This will accelerate electrification all around the world, increasing investment need in renewable grids and storage. This will require strong coherence between energy policies and regulation, providing stability to attract massive amounts of capital. Therefore, political ambition must be aligned with legal and regulatory certainty and rule of law as fundamental pillars to obtain investor confidence. This is the case of European Union, which, as I mentioned earlier, is creating a framework for the coordinated response to energy crisis through its Toolbox and REPowerEU communication. Also, Germany announced just a few days ago its Easter Package with ambitious target to increase renewable capacity to reach 80% share of renewable generation by 2030 and 100% by 2035.

In France, President Macron announced an ecological transition plan with a target developing 50 new offshore wind farm, doubling onshore wind capacity and multiply solar PV by 10 times. However, not all European countries are moving in the same direction, as we are seeing in Spain, where despite some positive momentum, issues like reduction on energy taxation or the acceleration of permits, the government has extended so-called gas clawback and has proposed an exceptional regime for Iberian market that we have seen is not justified and goes against the single market, when the situation could improve significantly just by eliminating the link between spot prices and regulated tariff, which is unique in Europe. The uncertainty created by these measures is reflected, for instance, in the fact that after auctioning almost 16,000 MW in 2017, only 6,000 MW has been built.

In the U.K., the new energy security strategy includes ambitious target to promote self-sufficiency through renewables and nuclear generation, as well as deployment of green hydrogen. The United States, both federal and state administration are developing resiliency plan, and the bipartisan infrastructure bill is now starting its implementation. Australia is progressing in its integrated system plan to reach its ambitious emission target, and the Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Bill will be coming into effect in June and will create a framework for this technology in the country. Finally, in Latin America, Brazil has just published its new ten-year energy plan with increased targets in renewables and transmission, as well as new law for support offshore wind growth in the country. In Mexico, as you know, the constitutional reform were raised by the Congress.

Following the review of the Electricity Industry Law by the Supreme Court, some aspects of this legislation were declared unconstitutional, with others left to case-by-case decisions by judges. As you know, our listed subsidiaries, Avangrid and Neoenergia, are also presenting first quarter results, showing a strong performance in both cases. Avangrid adjusted net profit increased by 33% to $445 million, mainly thanks to the strong performance in networks with net profit growing 12% year-on-year. In renewables, Avangrid continues to accelerate growth in onshore wind and solar, as well as in offshore wind, where the company completed a restructuring agreement that gave Avangrid full ownership of Park City Wind and Commonwealth Wind. It has already 2,100 MW contracted after the PPA signed recently for this last project.

The company performance in the quarter allows Avangrid to maintain the company guidance with full-year adjusted net profit expected to range between $120 million and $150 million. Neoenergia registered 20% increase in net profit to reach BRL 1,212 million, driven by the integration of Neoenergia Brasília, the ongoing investment in the network business, and a strong growth in renewables. EBITDA reached BRL 3,169 million, up 39%. Thanks to a 34% increase in investment which amounted to BRL 1,100 million. Of this total, BRL 1,250 million were allocated to distribution, driving a further improvement in quality of service, especially in Cosern, which was nominated by ANEEL, the best distribution company in Brazil in this chapter.

In addition, BRL 350 million were allocated to new transmission project. Renewable investment accounted for BRL 811 million, both on onshore wind and solar. This investment growth is sustained by ongoing regulatory stability with tariff reviews and adjustment reflecting actual cost and the first ones from the hydro resources are about to be received. The group's strong operational performance is fully reflected in our cash flow generation. We reached EUR 3,005 million in the first quarter, up 32%. As a result, our financial ratios improve with FFO to adjusted net debt increase in 70 basis points to 24%. In addition, our liquidity position reached EUR 21 billion, covering 22 months of financial need, improving our full access to financing in very competitive terms.

Over 2022, Iberdrola has already signed EUR 2.2 billion in new green financing for a total of EUR 41 billion, and remains as the world leading group in green bonds issued. All in all, this result shows the resiliency of Iberdrola's business model, which is allowing us to navigate the current energy market situation and maintain a strong growth prospect. Our long-term focus on clean electrification grow through investment in renewables, network, and energy storage, with 90% of our production in Europe already emissions free, also place us today in optimal position to face the short-term instability due to our geographic diversification with EBITDA almost equally split among Europe and Americas.

In addition, 50% of our operating margin is protected from inflation, 80% of our debt is contracted fixed rates, and more than 90% of our net profit is already hedged from the effect of foreign exchange. On top of this, our procurement policy allow us to have suppliers already secured for 2022 with prices closed or hedged. I will now hand over to the CFO, who will present the group financial standing in detail.

Pepe Armada
CFO, Iberdrola

Thank you very much, Chairman. Good morning to everybody. As the Chairman has explained, the EBITDA was up 4.9% to EUR 2.95 billion, and reported net profit grew 3.2% to EUR 1,058 million. 2022 first quarter operating cash flow, as the Chairman has said, is up 32% as it includes funds collected from court decisions in 2021 that were not included in our FFO in 2021. FX evolution has had a positive effect on results that will increase through the year as we have already hedged, as the Chairman has said, the appreciation of our reference currencies versus the euros. The dollar has rose against the euro by an average of 7.2%, the pound by 5.2%, and the real by 8%.

Revenues increased 20.4% to EUR 12 billion, and procurements grew 36%, reaching EUR 7.5 billion. As a consequence, gross margin rose 1.8% to EUR 4.7 billion. Net operating expenses increased by EUR 102 million, 9.8% to EUR 1.1 billion as a consequence of the group's growth, with average workforce increasing 6.7%, including Neoenergia Brasília and FX appreciation. There has been a one-off positive impact from U.S. provisions, pension provision reversals accounted in personnel expenses, partially compensated by storms and other minor one-offs that are accounted at external services. Analyzing the results of the different businesses and starting by networks, its EBITDA grew 21% to EUR 1.6 billion. EBITDA grew in all geographies except Spain.

Our increasing asset base, inflation recognition, and operating efficiency explain this good evolution. As you can see in the slide, the contribution from different geographies is very balanced. In Spain, EBITDA decreased 3.7% to EUR 409 million, mainly due to the impact of a EUR 22 million positive settlements accounted for in 2021. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 30% to BRL 2,772 million, driven by our increased asset base, with Neoenergia Brasília already contributing and positive impacts in distribution from tariff adjustments, inflation passed through and operating efficiency. In the U.S., IFRS EBITDA was 33% up to $477 million due to the rate case increases linked to higher investments and asset base and to the passthrough recognition.

In addition, there is a $99 million IFRS positive dollar IFRS positive impact corresponding to the reversal of pension provisions, as I mentioned. U.S. GAAP EBITDA increased 2.5% to $495 million. Finally, in the U.K., EBITDA increased 6.2% to GBP 250 million, thanks to our higher asset base. Energy production and customer business EBITDA fell 6.8% to EUR 1.36 billion. Key drivers of the business were the lower output driven by lower renewable production, forcing the group to buy energy in the market at higher prices. This increased energy costs, as the Chairman has said, has not benefit the group as the higher prices have not been passed on to customers. In Spain, EBITDA was EUR 557 million, 5% down.

Basically, the drivers of this evolution was a 19% lower output due to very low hydro, low wind, as well as an unplanned reduction in our nuclear production due to an outage of Cofrentes nuclear plant. All of this had a combined impact of EUR 370 million, as we had to buy additional energy in the market at very high prices not passed to clients. We do not expect to have such a negative impact on the next quarters. This very negative impact was partially compensated by the temporary suspension of the 7% tax on generation, lower hydro canon, as production has been lower and court rulings.

In the U.S., EBITDA decreased 43% to $147 million due to the positive contribution of the Texas cold snap accounted in the first quarter of last year, partially compensated by a 6.2% higher output due to new installed capacity and better wind resource versus 2021. In the U.K., the EBITDA fell 25% to GBP 237 million in a context of higher energy procurements at higher prices due to higher sales than expected in our SVT tariff, partially compensated by higher wind output. Nevertheless, let me again highlight, as in the case of Spain, that we expect the business to recover along the year as the SVT has been increased in April and will be risen again in October. In Mexico, EBITDA grew 11% to $215 million.

This evolution is explained because opposite to the U.S., it was in 2021 negatively affected by the Texas cold snap. This has been partially compensated by lower thermal production in 2022. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 33% due to BRL 420 million, driven by the Termopernambuco CCGT. Finally, in the rest of the world, EBITDA grew 42% to EUR 129 million, with higher contribution both from onshore and offshore business across different geographies. EBITDA was -- EBIT was up 2% to EUR 1.7 billion. D&A grew 11% to EUR 1.1 billion, mainly due to the higher network asset base and activity and renewables growth. Also, provisions were 6% down to EUR 108 million, mainly driven by lower bad debt provisions after the pandemic.

Net financial expenses grew EUR 134 million-E UR 399 million. Debt-related costs explained EUR 107 million. EUR 77 million due to the higher cost of debt in Brazil. That nevertheless is more than compensated at the EBITDA level by revenues indexed to inflation. Excluding Brazilian impact on cost of debt improved four basis points to 2.85%. There is also a EUR 30 million increase due to a higher average net debt balance. Non-debt-related costs increased EUR 27 million, mainly linked to FX hedges, covering full year results at the beginning of the year. Our reported credit metrics improved again. Despite this net debt increase linked to the strong CapEx and the EUR 1.1 billion FX adverse evolution. Our yearly FFO grew by 14.8%, including collection of EUR 100 million from Spanish court ruling.

Nevertheless, as you can see in the slide, thanks to our debt management, we have been able to maintain stable our debt in this quarter without considering the FX impact. As a consequence, our adjusted net debt to EBITDA improved to 3.3 times. Our FFO adjusted net debt rose to 24%. Our retained cash flow adjusted net debt was up to 21.7%, and our adjusted leverage ratio strengthened to 40.9%. Net profit grew 3.2% to EUR 1,058 million. Equity method includes EUR 212 million of positive non-recurring impact as a result of the Vineyard Wind restructuring agreement reached with CIP. As the Chairman will explain later, operating performance will improve along the year as renewable conditions are improving. Supply results will recover in Spain and the U.K., and FX will also help.

In the annex, you will find the scrip dividend calendar. Now the Chairman will conclude the presentation. Thank you very much.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Thank you, Pepe. The first quarter result and expected performance in the following quarters allow us to reaffirm our 2022 net profit outlook in the range of EUR 4 billion-EUR 4.2 billion. In the coming months, we expect the recovery of the seasonally low hydro green and nuclear production in the first three months that, as Pepe mentioned, has an impact of EUR 370 million in our accounts. The contribution of 3,100 MW of capacity and EUR 4 billion on network investment, which are driving additional growth, mainly U.S. and Brazil. As well as the better performance in the U.K. where we expect normalization of renewable production. Also, our retail margin will reflect the increase in the price cap since April.

Our outlook also include the impact of regulatory measures and court decision already mentioned in this presentation, as well as the positive FX impact, mainly due to the expected evolution of dollar and real. Today, we are also reaffirming our outlook on dividend. We will grow in line with the net profit with a floor of EUR 0.44 per share. To conclude, although we will give you a detailed information as soon as the circumstances allow us to celebrate our capital market day, let me share now a very brief summary of our long-term prospect. The acceleration of structural trends like technological progress on clean energies, or the need to combine decarbonization and energy sufficiency, coupled with short-term challenges driven by the geopolitical situation, reaffirm the urgency of the transition to a more electrified and self-sufficient energy system.

We have technologies to make this possible, and there is capital to drive the investment needed for the massive deployment of renewable power networks and energy storage, combined with green hydrogen for energy uses that are difficult to electrify in some industrial sectors and heavy transport. Obviously, stability, predictability, and rule of law will be more important than ever if we want to mobilize the capital required for this transformation and crystallize its advantage in terms of less external dependence and lower energy costs, greater energy security as it is based on unlimited and local energy sources, and obviously the acceleration of decarbonization. These are precisely the foundation of Iberdrola's business model, making our company fit for delivering growth in all scenarios. For this reason, in the coming years, we intend to reaffirm this strategy with more growth in networks.

We will represent at least 50% of our investment to 2025, driven by a stable tariff framework, most of them with regulatory return adjusted with inflation. In the case of United States, we expect new rate cases that will provide additional growth opportunity, also reflecting the current macroeconomic outlook. We will accelerate growth in renewables as well as business in which our diversified pipeline in countries with a stable framework and our access to different route to market allow us to remain selective, focusing on the most profitable project. By technologies, we will continue leading the development of offshore wind and growing in onshore wind and solar PV to increase production and optimize the balance between our output and our customer demand in some countries.

We will also continue to strengthen our geographical diversification with more than 50% of our results coming from Americas, a growing contribution from Europe and the rest of the countries, and Spain contributing less than one-third. We will combine this growth with a solid financial profile, maintaining our strong rating with no need of capital increases and keeping additional optionality from the use of partnership and asset rotation. This model is fully aligned with energy policy targets of self-sufficiency and decarbonization and will be implemented following the strong focus on ESG. Given these factors, today, we are maintaining our outlook for 2025. Now, we're more than happy to answer your question. Thank you.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Thank you, Chairman.

Prior to moving to the Q&A session, I would like to point out that for the time being, the following professionals have asked the question that I will be putting to top management in the next few minutes. Javier Garrido from JP Morgan, Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs, Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley, Harry Wyburd, Bank of America, Fernando Garcia, Royal Bank of Canada, Javier Suarez, Mediobanca, Jorge Guimaraes, JB Capital Markets, Fernando Lafuente, Alantra Equities, Jorge Alonso, Societe Generale, and finally, Ahmed Farman from Jefferies. The first question is the following.

Is the non-recurring low hydro nuclear wind included in the guidance EUR 4 billion-EUR 4.2 billion? Does it include CIP, U.S. pension, or social tariffs impact?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Well, of course, all those things has already happened is included. I think I mentioned that we have already had an impact of EUR 370 million. Pepe mentioned in the first quarter because of all this condition, and that is included in our projection, of course. Yes. Of course, as well is included whatever another thing which is already happening across the year, this point of pension or whatever, as well is included. Yes.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Second question: What is your estimate for EBITDA in 2022? Consensus is at levels of EUR 12.2 billion. Are you comfortable with this figure? Given Q1 results and expected evolution of the business, it seems that the EUR 12.2 billion could be a conservative figure.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Well, we are comfortable with these numbers. Probably the numbers we are already expecting is slightly higher than those ones.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Third question: How should we think about the direct and indirect impact on Iberdrola from any material disruption in Russian gas supplies?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

We are not at all exposed to imports of Russian gas. Our production and generation of gas in Europe is minimal. We don't expect significant impact in cost due to our other hedges in our FX and interest rates as well. Most of our result, as I mentioned, was protected from inflation. I think, to give you an example, I think we just received a review of the Brazilian Coelba and Celpe tariffs, which are already increases of the range of 13%-14%, which I think is mostly reflecting the inflation. I think that is a good example how is already in our business. Same with the production. Almost 100% of production available for 2022 is sold and almost 80% of 2023.

I think the point is that nobody knows what is going to happen with inflation in the future. I think if the inflation persists, in the case of renewables, I think that will be reflected in the future prices of the PPAs we will sign. Also, our procurement policies, as I mentioned, for 2022 are already fixed or closed or hedged in advance. I think we are not expecting that one. I think in the future, if that changes, as well, as I mentioned, that will be already passed to the contracts of our customers. Also, as Pepe mentioned, 80% of our debt is already at fixed rates.

I think potential increases in interest rates. I think we are not already affected because we are long-term and fixed rates.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Probably the next two questions are the questions of this event and has been asked with several specificities and from a large list of professionals. I will ask it in a general way, and the remaining details will be answered, please, from the IR department. First one is: What is the expected impact on Iberdrola of the Spanish gas price cap for power generation? And the second one, number five, is: Do you expect the introduction of a carbon cap? Do you expect the extension of gas cap, and how could this impact in your accounts?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Well, I think the first thing, I think we are aware, there exists the problem in Europe of prices. I think it is that it is common in the whole European Union. I think it exists, a problem of prices due to the gas prices due to the fossil fuels. In Spain, it's no different. Prices, I have to say, in the liberalized market in Spain are lower than most of Europe due to a better mix than we have already in the country, thanks to the massive renewables in the country. That I think you can already check those numbers in Eurostat, which I think is already published. I think the unique characteristic of the Spanish market is a regulated tariff, as I mentioned before, with the wrong design.

It is affected by the spot price volatility, but I think that is only affecting almost 10% of the energy sold in the country. I think the easy solution in my opinion, and I think I'm not alone. I give my opinion, as you know, I'm very straightforward, will be to move in the same line with other European Union countries, link the regulated tariff to a basket of forward prices. I think if we take an average already of the forward prices, which is published today of 2022, 2023, 2024 forward prices, the effect will be the same as this already being presented by the government.

What I think, of course, we need already to know the details of this, the terms of this agreement, because what I read is still not completed all the terms. In the moment that will be completed, we can already make an analysis. I think we are not expecting impact in Iberdrola. I think the situation is today, the extraordinary margins, if there are any in this moment, are in gas, not in electricity, as you can see in our result. We just need to see the difference between Spanish gas prices and the border and the TTF market.

I think you can see the result of oil and gas companies are booming, not electricity companies are booming prices. That's why we maintain our guidance to EUR 4 billion-E UR 4.2 billion. You have to know as well that in Spain, as I mentioned, is less than one third of our result and more than 50% of the result are regulated. I think the effect on that one, in any case, are marginal in our total results. In terms of the clawback, I think we have to know all this thing because I think it's one or another one. I think it's a package. We don't know exactly what is the final terms of all those things.

The only thing I can know is that this clawback is still remain in the parliament, but I imagine they're going to make a global package with all these measures, and I don't know what they're going to make with this particular point.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Question number six is, what is your view on PPA prices for renewables in the main countries where you operate? Are you seeing any structural increased prices? If so, can you give an indication of the magnitude?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

In the last months, we have seen an increase in PPAs prices in most markets. I think it's time. It's true that as well we have higher costs, higher CapEx. I think there are certain interrelations between the increases in CapEx and the increases in the PPAs prices we are seeing. I can say as well that the customers have more appetite to take fixed prices than they had in the past. I think today, as I was mentioning before, these prices they can obtain, these fixed prices, long-term fixed prices are far below the spot market prices.

I think I can say, for instance, in Spain, the fixed prices we are providing in some cases is 50% or close to 50% lower than those which are in the spot one. Unfortunately, that is our problem in some countries, is we have no more energy available to be sold at for 2022. I think I'll be delighted to have more energy available to sign more long-term contracts with that one, but I think all has been sold. I think those customers are benefiting already of the lower cost of certain of our technologies. It's true that part of those, I think we are not 100% of the time generating with renewable.

We have already to produce or to buy electricity generated with gas or buy electricity with gas, as Pepe mentioned. We have already this negative effect. I think it's we are convinced that it's needed to create the incentive for signing more long-term contract and PPAs instead of extending volatility of the spot market price in the whole market. I think if that will give a great incentive for investing more in renewable without being expecting already auctions. Without using, many of those auctions has not been built. I think, as I mentioned before, in Spain has been already awarded 16,000 MW of auctions, and only 6,000 has been built at present.

The reasons are many, not only question of permit, as well as a question of funding and financing all those projects. I think that's why I think regulatory stability, which I'm always insisting on that one, are crucial. I think if we need to invest heavily in this sector, if we would like to make this energy transition and to become more self-sufficient, stability, predictability, rule of law are crucial to already make that happen. That is something which I will insist. I've been insisting for a long time, I will continue insisting.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

We have a couple of question regarding the nuclear business or the nuclear production. The first one is: What is your view on the role of this, on nuclear in Spain, and would Iberdrola regard potential extension of nuclear life spans as an opportunity?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

I think perhaps the first reflection, and it's not mine, it's from one of the European leaders. So the situation that we are seeing and we are living today has already proven that self-sufficiency in Europe is crucial. America, United States, 20 or 25 years ago, decided to become fully self-sufficient in their energy. And they invest in shale oil, shale gas, in renewables, and now they are already exporting. Not only not importing, but they're exporting part of their production to Europe. Europe needs already to make already this plan, and they are already. That's why I mentioned the Fit for 55 is a good tool for becoming Europe fit for self-sufficiency.

The main resources we have in Europe are renewables and nuclear is the only one available. The development of nuclear depends on the energy policy in each country. I think it's a question of energy policy, some countries decide to take this route, another country decide to take another one. I think in the case of Spain has already decided to bet on renewables with a progressive and orderly closure of nuclear. I have to say that, and I think that is what this is the policy, and I think we accept this policy. Our nuclear power plant, nevertheless, are ready to operate as long as they are needed.

I think that will require extra investment and extra cost that in case the policy change, this extra cost have to be already had planned to be recovered, as in any other technology.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

The second question regarding nuclear is related to Cofrentes and the recent incident and the cost of it.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Pepe mentioned, it wasn't unplanned outage. I think I have to say the availability of Spanish nuclear plant, our nuclear power plant are extremely good. I think we have already a level of availability much higher than other rates of another power plant, nuclear power plant in other countries. But I think time to time, some things like those one happen. I think we have already solved, and the incident, the last incident we have already, this moment is already just coming back to work the power plant. I think this kind of small incidents are already in our case, in most cases, are already in our budget because we know there is no 100% availability.

Sometimes it's already happened, something like those things. The point is, in the moment it happened, it already has impact, and I think that was the case. I think it says the availability of our nuclear power plant and Spanish nuclear power, our own and another one as well, are already benchmarking most compared with other countries.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Next question is, what is the estimated impact of the U.S. government probe on solar panel imports? How many capacity addition could be delayed? How many months of inventories do we have?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

So far, we have a very small impact in the United States, and because of this regulatory extensions of ten-year component. I think if my memory doesn't fail, I think we have around 300 MW with PV which can be affected. But I think as I heard this, the decision moving in the right direction, and most of them are already is not in for 2022. I think it's for 2023. I think, Ignacio, you can already clarify those thing in detail, but my memory is not already precisely in this this one. I think my message is little impact or no impact in our case.

Not in 2022, and something in 2023 for an amount which can be 300 MW in a total of thousands that we are installing in the country in other technologies in United States. I think those are the main terms. We have not already seen. It's not something which is affecting ourselves, but I think, Ignacio, you can provide more detail. But

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Will do.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

I think in my mind, it's none in 2022, if there is something, it will be in a small scale, something 250-300 MW in 2023 which can be affected. Not in the long term because our solar, you know, our bet in United States is offshore. What we have most our investment addressed to offshore is where it is not already PV our main drive for growth in United States.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

This next question is related to the European Union policy, and can you accelerate renewables development due to the permitting changes of the REPowerEU plan? Would this still be possible despite supply chain constraints?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Well, I've been for years already predicating in European Union and different countries the need of modifying the permitting process. I think probably it's already been said to me during those years that it has no sense that to build a new power plant takes less than a year, and to obtain the paperwork and the for the permits, it takes five, six or seven years. Now either the European Commission and most European countries are already aware of that one, and they are already just trying to look for solution for how to avoid these bottlenecks. I heard the European Commission is planning to publish in May some guidelines how to make that one.

I think in most countries, as I mentioned already, is already just becoming more ambitious in terms of the, especially Germany and France and Britain as well, in terms of how much of their energy will come from renewables. All of them, they are already trying to modify the legislation for making already to be more agile on that one. I think in the case of Spain has been announced as well to modify the rules for a project up to 75 MW for wind and 150 MW for solar PV as well for making that one, for avoiding certain of the processes to make that more rapidly. I think that is positive for Iberdrola globally.

In the case of Spain, it is positive for giving us the opportunity to reprivatize certain of our existing power plant, and that will increase our pipeline because of all those things.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Next question is the number 11, and it's regarding the inflationary situation. What is your view about the inflationary pressures in turbines and panels? By how much CapEx megawatts could increase for projects in 2024, 2025? And regarding the business, network business, is Iberdrola feeling inflationary pressures in raw materials or construction costs? How rapidly can those be passed to the RAB?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

As I mentioned before, most of our operating result is protected for inflation. I think it's because in some cases, revenues increase with inflation in different businesses. That is the case I mentioned before about Brazil. Their recent review of tariffs, which increases of 13%, 14% in tariffs. In another case is in renewables. There are PPAs or CFDs which are linked to inflation with certain reviews of inflation, which I think is already from the very beginning. As I mentioned as well, if in revenues the inflation persist, I think we will increase our CapEx and that will already pass transfer to the future prices. That is what is happening, as I mentioned.

The new PPAs are already increasing that one toward what they were before. I think I have to say that for 2022, our purchases are secure with prices or hedged in advance. I think that is not already affected. Also, as I mentioned, and Pepe mentioned as well, in terms of one of the potential effects of inflation is increase in interest rates and 80% of our total debt is already a fixed rate, it's long-term, a fixed rate. As well, that is, we are protected in this one. You know, we have always had, you've been sometimes criticizing in the one-to-one and already with you, that we are too conservative.

We are not very aggressive in our expectation. We always maintain a conservative approach. That is what is already happening. We have fixed-rate long-term. We are already business hedged for inflation or hedged for rate for FX. I think that's already been our strategy. We are investing for long-term. Our investment are standing for 30, 40, 50 years. One of our key material is the cost of capital. I think we don't like to have any surprise on that one. That's why we are already making these fixed rates, long-term fixed rate. Same thing with the purchase.

I think I remind you that in 2020 we make orders for almost three years to our customer, to our suppliers, not only for protecting about what is going to happen because we don't know what is going to happen what is happening. Just to help themselves to keep already the supply chains already in operation when everybody was closing or they were in difficult situation. I think we are benefiting as well on that one. Because we passed this order, they hedge already the raw material, and we are benefiting of this, of the orders we passed already with two years in advance.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

About Avangrid. There have been a lot of management changes in Avangrid in the last 12 months, including the CEO. What has driven the changes? Is Avangrid moving into a different strategy?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Well, I think Dennis Arriola took his decision. I think now we are more than glad to have Pedro Azagra on board. He knows the business and he's fully aligned with our model. I think we will continue with our strategy. I think the rotation is not negative. Sometimes it can be very positive. Which I think is when you are already in a company, which is the result of mergers of different companies in a short period of time, it's normal they have a certain number of rotation of people. I think I'm very happy with the existing team, and I'm sure that Pedro is going to do a great job because he knows the business very well.

has been the father of all our mergers, and I think he knows the people there better than anybody. I'm sure Dennis is going to be a great CEO of Avangrid.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

About Mexico operations. Can you update us on the impact of the recent regulatory and political development in Mexico? What is the outlook for your Mexican business in the next three years?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

As I mentioned, constitutional reform was rejected by the Congress. It's electricity law, as I mentioned as well, that some aspect we are declaring constitutional and others left to case-by-case decision by judges. I can say then our operational performance is normal. Our plant is working with proper load factor close to over 80%. That's, you know, what I can say. I think we maintain our investment, what I mentioned, in line with what we mentioned, which is already very, very little in the next few years.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Last question, after 60 minutes of presentation, is Iberdrola accelerating renewables in Australia, recent pipeline acquisition of 1 GW. Can you provide some color on that market that makes the company to be so optimistic, PPA prices, tender prices, economies of scale with current assets?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

We are fully committed with Australia for the same reason that led us to invest in the country. Our project there is progressing very well. I think, for instance, Port Augusta, which is just almost completed. Australia has a very attractive regulation. It's A country, A-rating country. We have a great team there who knows very well the country and they know very well what to do. There are a lot of opportunities in another sector, not only renewable, but as well in transmission in the next few years. They are already saying there is already a growing demand for the citizens in the different Australian states to decarbonize their economy.

I think all those one is the reason why we would like to be present. It's a serious country. It's a country with a rating. We have a good team. There are great expectation. The business we are making there is already giving a good return, and we are already succeeding in our project in the what we are already in this moment in construction. That's why I think it's the reason why we are there. The same reason why we were in the United States 20 years ago. It's a serious country, solid, good, stable regulation, growth prospects, and that's why we are there.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations and Communications, Iberdrola

Now, please let me now give the floor to Mr. Galán to conclude this event.

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