Iberdrola, S.A. (BME:IBE)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 24, 2021

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, we would like to offer a warm welcome to all of you who have joined us today for our 2020 fiscal year results presentation. Secondly, we hope that you, your family, friends, and colleagues are all safe and well during this global pandemic that we unfortunately have among us for almost a year now. Onto the reason we are all here, our 2020 results presentation, which will follow our normal format. Firstly, we will begin with an overview of the results and the main developments during the period given by the senior executive team that we have usually with us. Our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galán, Mr. Francisco Martínez Córcoles, Business CEO, and finally, the CFO, Mr. Pepe Sainz. Following this, we will move on to the Q&A session.

I would also like to highlight that we are only going to take questions submitted via the web. Please ask your question only through our webpage, www.iberdrola.com. We expect that today's event will not last more than 75 minutes. Hoping that this presentation will be useful and informative for all of you, now, without further ado, I would like to give the floor to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galán. Thank you very much again. Please, Mr. Galán.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Good morning, Ignacio. Good morning, everybody. Thank you very much for joining today's conference call. The global situation in 2020 was unprecedented, and Iberdrola had to respond to this environment with accelerating our business activities, our social contribution, and our leadership in the energy transition. We maintained our service when it was most needed, with a special focus on critical infrastructures. We have reaffirmed our commitment to a quick and sustainable green recovery, and we have increased the company's growth prospects. This was only possible thanks to the dedication and professionalism of our employees. My most sincere gratitude to all of them, especially to field staff. They all make Iberdrola a best-class group. In this complex scenario, we have already delivered a strong result once again. Reported net profit reached EUR 3,611 million.

Excluding the COVID-19 one-off effect, which amount EUR 213 million, net profit grows close to 10%, showing solid underlying performance. Investment registered a new record of EUR 9,246 million, up 13% compared to previous year. We also set a new record of purchase of goods and services with EUR 14 billion awarded globally. This allowed us to maintain the activity of our 22,000 suppliers to preserve the almost 100,000 jobs we support in our supply chains. Our EBITDA grew 8% to EUR 10,715 million excluding foreign exchange impact. We have also made positive progress on the implementation of our 2020-2025 plan, including the creation of new growth platforms that will accelerate results in the coming years. The company has also reaffirmed its global leadership in green and sustainable financing with EUR 24,500 million issued to date.

This set of results has allowed the board of directors to propose to the annual shareholders' meeting a dividend of EUR 0.42 per share, with an increase of 5% versus 2019. 2020 was an outstanding year for the company's intense share performance, with Iberdrola's stock price outperforming the stock utilities by 80 percentage points and the Spanish IBEX 35 by more than 40 points, driving a total shareholder return to close to 100% over the last two decades. Thanks to our pioneer business model based on values fully in line with the highest environmental, social, and governance standards, a model that combines the creation of shared value for our shareholders, our employees, and the society. Back to 2001, we anticipated the energy transition and understood the huge growth prospects of electricity consumption to achieve efficient decarbonization.

Since then, we have invested more than EUR 120 billion in renewable energy, smart networks, and efficient storage, closing all our coal and fuel oil power plants well before our competitors. At the same time, we have started an ambitious internationalization process, focusing on countries with attractive ratings and ambitious climate policies, always maintaining our financial strength and operational excellence, and our commitment with an increasing dividend. These strategic pillars have led us to multiply our size by six times, becoming one of the three largest utilities worldwide with more than EUR 120 billion in assets and EUR 74 billion on select growth on the coming decade. We have already the track record, the expertise, the team, the technology, and the financial resources to lead a green energy revolution. We have a clear plan with investment of EUR 75 billion up to 2025 and EUR 150 billion to 2030.

They will double our renewable capacity by 2025 and multiply by three in 2030, reaching close to 100,000 MW of capacity, increase also our network asset base by 50% in 2025, doubling it by 2030 to reach EUR 60 billion. A plan based in doing what we do best in markets in which we already have a strong position and a diversified pipeline of projects. Our target to reach EUR 5 billion in net profit by 2025 and around EUR 7 billion in 2030, with dividends reaching EUR 0.56 per share already in 2025 and around EUR 75 in 2030. In other words, our goal is to double the group size and results once again in the next 10 years. In 2020, we have been the first year in execution of our plan.

Even in the current condition, gross investment reached the record figure of 9,346 million, up 13% versus 2019, with more than 90% allocated to renewables and network business. Renewables was the main investment destination with 52% of the total, increasing more than 40% thanks to the acceleration in onshore and offshore wind and solar PV projects mainly in Spain and U.S. Networks contributed 39% to total investment, mainly in U.S., U.K., and Spain. As you know, in 2021, we will add the integration of PNM Resources in U.S., New Mexico utility, and CEB in Brazil, the Brazilian utility, to this organic investment, driving further growth to our business. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding FX impact, was up 8% to EUR 10,750 million, thanks to the performance of renewables and generation supply, which in both cases grew more than 10%.

Renewables EBITDA was driven by the contribution of new operating asset in all geographies, like the East Anglia ONE offshore wind farm in the U.K., higher production in the U.S. due to the higher availability and capacity additions, and more hydro production in Spain and Brazil. Growth in generation supply reflects lower procurement costs, thanks to price hedge and increased customer base, and the positive impact of Smart Solutions, which already contributed more than EUR 200 million to the group EBITDA and are growing rapidly in our markets. Finally, operating results in networks reflect the impact of the transition to the new regulatory period in Spain, more than offset the increase in results from the new rate case in N.Y. additional transmission project and tariff reviews in Brazil, and the expansion of our U.K. regulated asset base.

Consolidated EBITDA also reflect our geographical diversification, with 76% coming from A-rating countries like Germany, U.K., Spain, Australia, France, or U.S. As mentioned, one of our main growth drivers in 2020 was the addition of generation capacity. Despite COVID restrictions, we have installed 4,000 MW in the last 12 months, which around 70% are renewable. This means 2,190 additional MW, leading our total renewable capacity to 35,000 in Spain, 900 MW of solar PV in Spain and Mexico. A new battery storage project, including the first phase of the 50 MW super battery at Whitelee wind farm in Glasgow, the Infigen 25 MW battery system linked to the Lake Bonney wind farm in Australia. The increase in share of renewables in our generation mix led to an 11% reduction of CO2 emission, reaching only 98 g/ kWh.

This figure is between 2x and 3x lower than the last data published by the other two largest global utilities, NextEra Energy and Enel, well below the average of the sector in Europe and U.S., putting us in the right track to reach our goal of zero emission in Europe already in 2030, 20 years ahead of European target, less than 50 g/kWh globally. As mentioned, meeting these targets will require reaching 60,000 MW of renewable capacity by 2025 and almost 100,000 by 2030. We have the project to make it. Over the last year, Iberdrola has increased its pipeline in more than 25,000 MW to over 74,000. A high-quality portfolio diversified by geographies and technologies and fully cohering with our growth plans. By geographies, one-third correspond to European Union, one-third U.S., and remaining 33% is spread over the other markets.

By technologies, offshore wind already contribute to 22,000 MW, with solar PV reaching 32,000 and onshore wind 16,000. With this pipeline, we have more today than 70,000 MW already under construction or secure. This represents 95% of the capacity planned for 2021 and 2022, and 17% of total target for 2025. Offshore wind is the fastest-growing technology in our pipeline, providing us additional prospect in a technology in which we were pioneers over a decade ago. It already contributes close to EUR 600 million to our group EBITDA, up 72% in 2020, reflecting the higher EBITDA per megawatt of this technology compared to other renewables I was explaining to you in the previous presentation. We already have close to 1,300 MW in service in the U.K., West of Duddon Sands, East Anglia ONE, in Germany, Wikinger, with availability and load factors above estimate in all cases.

Four projects under construction on track to be commissioned up to 2025. Saint-Brieuc in France and Baltic Eagle in Germany, each of them with 500 MW. Vineyard Wind and Park City in the U.S., which add more than 1,600 MW. These four projects were obtained with zero cost of seabed rights, and all of them have PPAs or long-term contracts already signed. Looking beyond 2025, we have 9,000 MW in offshore projects ready to build in the U.S., the U.K., and Germany, again, with seabed cost close to zero. 10,000 MW under development in other geographies such Sweden, Japan, Poland, and Ireland. Driving a four times increase of this technology EBITDA by 2030, up to EUR 2.3 billion, and with additional upside expected the following decade. This growth is fully current with the global outlook of offshore wind, one of the fastest-growing technology in the sector.

Total capacity expected to reach 100,000 MW by 2030 from current 40,000. Our competitive project puts Iberdrola in optimal position ahead of the auction expected in the coming 12, 18 months in markets like United States, U.K., Germany and France, as well in Denmark, where we already have a joint venture. As the vice president of the European Union said recently, "Without grid, there will not renewable growth." This is why we have always considered networks as a growth business, investing in it both organically and through acquisition. As a result, our regulated assets reached EUR 31.1 billion by the end of last year, with a balanced geographical breakdown. We expect further 50% growth in 2021, up to EUR 36 billion.

For an additional investment in all our markets, mainly U.S., where among this secure a new three-year rate case in New York, they will make this state a new growth platform for the company, with revenues of our New York utilities increasing by 8% already in 2021, an additional 13% between 2022 and 2023. From the integration of PNM Resources in U.S. and CEB in Brazil. The regulatory proceeding of both transactions are progressing on schedule, and they have also received shareholders' approval. CEB will start contributing to an annual result from early March, and PNM Resources transaction is expected to close it in the second half of the year.

Regulated contracts coming from these two transactions, together with additional retail customers in all our markets, will add close to 5 million contracts during 2021 to reach a global portfolio of 48.5 million contracts by the end of this year. Iberdrola customer base is increasing quickly in new markets like Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, U.S. The new Smart Solutions, like in mobility and energy efficiency and self-consumption products, that will accelerate growth in the coming years as a result of the electrification and higher customer productivity. These value-added Smart Solutions already contributed close to 4% to the Iberdrola Group net profit in 2020. The need to decarbonize energy uses that are difficult to electrify is driving great growth prospect in green hydrogen for industries such as fertilizers and the heavy transport. Iberdrola is already leading development of this technology. We have more than 50 projects.

We could see a total production of 60,000 tons per annum and mobilize an investment of close to EUR 2,500 million over the next years. We have already secured the first three projects of all, starting this year. Puertollano 1 in Spain, as part of our alliance with Fertiberia for decarbonization of fertilizer production with green ammonia. This complex will become, as early as this year, the largest green hydrogen facility for industrial use in Europe. We also have signed an agreement to bring green hydrogen to the port of Nigg, close to Inverness in Scotland, to decarbonize the manufacture of the steel component for an industry such as offshore wind. Also, this year, we will start green hydrogen production to supply the fleet of buses in Barcelona. Today appeared in the media in Spain.

As you know, we are progressing in our Iberlyzer joint venture to design and produce electrolysis in Spain. I expect to update you on this project very soon. Given the potential of green hydrogen to quickly create new industry and qualified jobs along the value chains and the need for support to accelerate its competitiveness, this technology is one of the key components of Iberdrola proposal for the European recovery funds. Including all areas, Iberdrola has presented 150 projects that could mobilize investment of more than EUR 21 billion. Two-third can be already from Iberdrola, resulting in further opportunities on top of our 2020-2025 plan. This initiative will strongly contribute to the green and digital transitions, which, as you know, are the core of the Next Generation EU program and the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan published by the Spanish government.

By developing clean technologies and energy efficiency, this plan can accelerate the achievement of environmental targets like emission reduction or the improvement of air quality, as well as the transformation of our economic model, making it more modern, resilient and competitive, generating 40,000 high-skilled jobs per year, creating growth opportunities for 350 small, medium, and large companies, adding 1.5% of the Spanish GDP and improving our balance of payment by almost EUR 1 billion. Moving to the financial performance. Over the last year, Iberdrola has continued reinforcing its strength, driven by cash generation and balance sheet management. Operating cash flow reached EUR 8,192 million, up 1.6%, improving our FFO to asset and net debt ratio 190 basis point to reach 23.5%. Our liquidity exceed EUR 17 billion, and we maintain full access to financial market in competitive terms.

Just weeks ago, Iberdrola issued the largest green hybrid bond in history, worth EUR 2 billion, with demand reaching 5x this amount. After this transaction, total green and sustainable financing in the group reached EUR 24.5 billion, reaffirming Iberdrola as the largest corporate issuer of green bond in the world. In light of the results presented today, Iberdrola's board of directors will propose to the annual shareholders' meeting a supplementary dividend of EUR 0.252 per share, payable in July. Add to the interim dividend of [EUR 0.16] per share already paid, this amount leads to a total shareholder remuneration of EUR 4.42 per share, 5% increase compared to last year, already above the floor established for the year 2022. I will now hand over the CFO, who will present the group financial results for the detail. Thank you.

Pepe Sainz
CFO, Iberdrola

Thank you, Chairman. Good morning to everybody. As the Chairman has pointed out, excluding COVID and FX, our EBITDA would have been EUR 10.7 billion, showing the real recurring performance of the business. Gross margin was down 0.7% to EUR 16.1 billion, affected by EUR 744 million of negative FX impact. Without this hit, gross margin would have grown by 3.8%. Net operating expenses improved 0.4% to EUR 4.3 billion. EUR 242 million positive FX impact more than compensates EUR 49 million of donations and the increase of activity and consolidation of Infigen and Aalto Power. Excluding the positive FX impact and an accounting reconciliation not affecting the EBITDA, net operating expenses would have grown 3.5%. Network's EBITDA fell by 9.2% to EUR 4.8 billion, considering EUR 111 million negative COVID impact on demand. Excluding EUR 397 million negative FX impact, EBITDA reduced its fall to 1.7%.

In local currency, good performance in the U.K. and Brazil was compensated by the regulatory cut in Spain and timing and storm effects in the U.S. linked to IFRS accounting. As you can see in the slide, Spain contributed 34%, the U.S. 23%, but it is expected to multiply by two its EBITDA in 2025, being by then the largest contributor, driven by new investments and the PNM integration. Brazil reached 22% and 21% was the U.K. In Spain, the EBITDA fell 5.8% to EUR 1.6 billion, affected by EUR 50 million of the remuneration cut and EUR 82 million of positive impacts in 2019 related to the sale of fiber optic and positive settlements. In the U.S., IFRS EBITDA was 17% down to $1.2 billion, driven by $145 million negative temporary adjustments under IFRS, as a consequence of differences in volumes and energy costs together with the impact of storms.

COVID effect on demand was EUR 65 million and should be recovered from 2021 onwards. I want to stress that in US GAAP, EBITDA is EUR 252 million higher than the IFRS EBITDA and grew 7.5%. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 16.7% to 6.4 billion BRL. Positive tariff revision in all distribution companies, increasing contribution from higher investment in transmission assets, and cost contention due to efficiency plans have been partially compensated by 147 million BRL COVID impact. Finally, in the U.K., EBITDA was 2.7% up to 890 million GBP, with higher revenues both in transmission and distribution due to investments, partially offset by 22 million GBP less revenues due to COVID, started to be recovered in 2022. Renewables EBITDA grew 8.4% to EUR 2.6 billion. Total installed capacity grew 9% to 34,920 MW, and production increased by 18%, driven by hydro and offshore.

As the Chairman has said, offshore wind already contributes EUR 585 million to the EBITDA, in 2019, partially compensated by a lower average price. I would like to stress the higher and increasing contribution of our international business than other EUR 334 million to the EBITDA, driven by Infigen and Aalto Power, after growing 33% in Q4. In fact, our international business EBITDA will multiply by 3x , reaching EUR 950 million in 2025, due to the new additions and the offshore business. In the U.K., EBITDA was 46% up to GBP 675 million, driven by the offshore business that grew 231% as a result of the East Anglia production, where its 740 MW are fully operational since mid-2020.

In Spain, EBITDA was EUR 698 million, 5.2% below last year, due to lower prices in sales to the supply business, despite 17% higher output driven by a 42% higher hydro production, as well as higher PV capacity. In the US, EBITDA increased 2% to $676 million, caused by a 10% higher output following 586 MW increase in operating capacity in the last year and higher wind resource, but negatively affected by lower prices and higher costs. In the international business, EBITDA grew 3.4% to EUR 334 million, with increasing contribution from Aalto Power and Infigen, but affected by non-recurring development costs. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 19% to BRL 656 million, as output increased by 17%, with 45% higher hydro output compensating the 6% fall in wind.

Finally, in Mexico, EBITDA grew 10.7% to $106 million, with 113 MW higher average operating capacity. Generation and supply EBITDA was 3.9% up to EUR 2.6 billion, including EUR 107 million negative COVID impact on demand. Business improvement in the U.K. and Mexico drives this growth. Smart Solutions contributed EUR 220 million or 9% of the generation and supply EBITDA and will reach 16% of the generation and supply EBITDA by 2025. In Spain, the reported EBITDA was 5.7% down to EUR 1.5 billion, but recurrent EBITDA was 6.4% up, excluding EUR 87 million of LNG contract sale accounted in 2019 and a EUR 95 million charge from the corporate for the first time in 2020 that does not affect the consolidated EBITDA as it is taken or reconciled in the corporate area.

In 2020, although we had 6.5% lower output, we had higher purchases at lower prices versus last year. In Mexico, EBITDA grew 5.7% to $922 million, thanks to higher sales linked to the new installed capacity. In the U.K., EBITDA grew 130% to GBP 222 million as a consequence of improved margins versus 2019, despite the fall in sales affected by COVID. Brazil added BRL 348 million to the EBITDA in a context of business normalization after the one-off negative effect that lowered results in 2019. The international business EBITDA was already positive, EUR 0.3 million, improving EUR 25 million versus last year, but still affected by initial development costs. We have reached 1.8 million contracts or almost 20% more than one year ago.

EBIT fell 5.8% to EUR 5.5 billion as provisions grew 42% after including EUR 124 million of bad debt provisions related to COVID, EUR 27 million in networks, mostly in Brazil, and EUR 97 million in generation and supply to be managed through our commercial activity. Part of this cost will be, for example, recognized in the U.K. by Ofgem in its new tariff update. In addition, amortizations rose 2.6% due to the increase of the asset base and activity. Net financial expenses improved EUR 309 million to EUR 991 million, driven by EUR 182 million linked to FX hedges and EUR 122 million positive impact due to the lower cost of debt that improved 32 basis points to 3.18%. Average net debt remains stable at around EUR 37 billion, thanks to FX evolution and hybrid issuance.

Our reported credit metrics remained strong and in comfortable levels for our rating requirements. Our debt improves from EUR 37.5 billion to EUR 35.1 billion due to the EUR 3 billion hybrid issued last October and FX gains, despite increasing investments and the consolidation of Infigen and Aalto Power. FFO-adjusted net debt improved 1.9 percentage points to 23.5%. S&P relaxed the range from 18%-20% to 17%-20% the FFO net debt range after considering Iberdrola an energy transition leader.

Our FFO net debt in their methodology will be around 18.5% in the middle of the range. Adjusted net debt to EBITDA improved to 3.5 x from 3.7x . Retained cash flow adjusted net debt improved to 21.3% from 20% levels. Adjusted leverage ratio decreased to 42.3%. Our expansion plan requires a conservative while active management of interest rate risk aligned with our earnings structure. Currently, we have 71% of our group's debt at fixed rate and an additional 10% of future debt closed through high interest rate forwards. Our debt management adapts the weight of currencies and its interest rate structure to the cash flow generated by our business. We have mostly fixed debt in our U.S. business, that it is a perfect pass-through on our regulated business and most of our renewable business is based on long-term PPAs.

Less so in EUR due to the weight of the liberalized business. In the U.K., our debt is more balanced at fixed, floating, and inflation-indexed according to our business profile. The BRL is heavily inflation-indexed as most of our revenues are linked to Brazilian inflation. We have a comfortable financial needs profile with average debt maturity close to seven years. As you can see in this slide, reported net profit grew 4.2% to EUR 3.6 billion. Business growth in 2020 and Siemens Gamesa capital gain more than compensated COVID impact in the year and the FX negative impact that was mostly hedged. As a matter of fact, our adjusted net profit grew 9.7%, showing the strength of our business model. Now the Chairman will end this presentation.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Reaffirms the potential of Iberdrola business model to deliver social value where it is most needed and to create sustainable growth and shareholder value. 2020 results confirm Iberdrola as an energy transition leader in the words of Standard & Poor's that Pepe mentioned. On the generic green measures, a company with a unique model which combines a strategy fully based in ESG factor that anticipate sector trends two decades ago. A business portfolio fully coherent with energy transition and the green recovery. A long-term vision to grow over the next decade, and a track record of strategic consistency and execution. I insist on that one, track record of strategic consistent execution. Follow the greenest generation portfolio among the largest utility worldwide. Last year, we added 2,800 MW to reach a 35,000 MW capacity, and we are doubling our capacity the next five years and multiply it by three in 2030.

Thanks to our pipeline of more than 74,000 MW, in which 17,000 MW are already under construction or secure. One third of this pipeline correspond to offshore wind, creating additional growth opportunities for the technology that already contribute to already today 6% of our group EBITDA. In networks, we continue expanding our regulated asset base up to EUR 36 billion in 2021, reaching EUR 47 billion in 2025 and close to EUR 60 billion by 2030. With a stable and predictable framework in the U.K., Brazil, and United States. An additional growth from the integration of PNM Resources and the distribution company in Brasília. Finally, in generation and supply, we add 20 million new contracts in the next years with a growing additional new markets.

A further opportunities for Smart Solutions, as well as new solution for industrial customers like green hydrogen. This business portfolio will drive strong upside in the medium long term. Our investment are focused only on growth business with more than 90% directly to power networks and renewables. We have an optimal diversification with a 76% of the EBITDA from eight countries. In addition, 80% of our gross margin is secured with 70% in our generation sold through PPAs or long-term arrangement. 90% of our networks asset base with regulatory frameworks already fixed up to 2023. This business mix is fully in line with our financial approach. 71% of our debt has fixed or hedged rates and average maturity of seven years. We will have additional opportunities for increased climate ambition and the green recovery, especially in Europe.

We have ahead us the largest investment plan in Iberdrola's history, and we will execute it following the same environmental, social, and governance principles that have always been at the core of Iberdrola's decision and action. We were the first mover in a clean energy revolution. The others are joining now, will not have the write-off of cost associated with the commissioning of coal or oil power plant they could need to register. We are an active agent in the transformation of our society, sustaining 400,000 jobs through our supply chains, thanks to the EUR 14 billion we awarded in purchase of goods and services last year. Our governance sustainability system has been upgraded to reflect the best practice in matters of diversity and inclusion.

The result of these commitments is fully available to the financial community through our reporting and disclosure system, which follows GRI and SASB standards and includes the latest recommendation of the task force and climate-related financial disclosures. To conclude, thanks to our model, Iberdrola faces the future with a strong prospect in the short, medium, long term. We expect our net profit to reach between EUR 3.7 billion and EUR 3.8 billion in 2021, accelerating growth in medium term to reach EUR 5 billion in 2025, and the long term to around EUR 7 billion by the end of the decade. We are also reaffirming our commitment to visible increase in shareholder remuneration. On the top of all, EUR 0.42 per share for 2020. For 2025, we expect to reach EUR 0.56, 40% more than 2019.

In 2030, with the ambition of paying around EUR 0.75 per share, with this, an increase around 90% compared to 2019. The opportunity is there, and Iberdrola stands ready to deliver once again the creating sustainable value for our employees, shareholders, and society. Thank you very much, and we'll now answer any question you may have. Thank you.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Thank you, chairman. First of all, I would like to point out that you have an annex in the presentation you have on your hands right now. It could provide additional information about the results of 2020. Moving to the Q&A session, the first question comes from James Brand, Deutsche Bank, Harry Wyburd, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Elchin Mammadov from Bloomberg, Javier Suárez, Mediobanca, and Jorge Alonso, SocGen. There have been some sign of significant competitive pressure in auctions so far this year. For instance, the low PPA prices in Spain and the high fees for seabed in England. Do you see this as isolated incident or a sign of pressure to come?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think I would respond first to this area for the U.K. offshore. I was not surprised of the result. The oil companies will be ready to pay high prices. I was convinced that it will happen because they need to change their equity story. I think they need to show to the market, and they are really committed with that one. I think my point of that, even it is not a surprise, I think this is not a surprise what they are already paying for certain purchase of pipeline, of certain purchase of certain ready-built offshore wind farms. They need to clarify their position. It makes no sense to pay high prices in auctions as they did and declare days after that there is a bubble in the sector. With that, I think probably they are generating.

In any case, I think if there are companies which have already been making write-offs of EUR 15 billion, EUR 20 billion, I think it is not much, it is irrelevant for them to make EUR 1 billion more or less what they are already facing in this moment. I think it is a company like Iberdrola, we are not already in such position. Our story is very clear for 20 years. We have already just invested a long time ago in those sectors. As I was mentioning in my speech, we have already a pipeline of 90,000 MW of offshore, with 9,000 is ready to be built, with seabed cost close to zero, giving us an optimal success to future auctions. The increase of the prices they already pay for this seabed increase our competitiveness to our existing pipeline, which I think that is important.

I think if you evaluate how much is our, let's say not 90,000, 9,000, which is ready to build. You add already that one to put already the price they pay for that one. We are talking about probably tens of billion EUR value pipeline, which I think is a good news for us. Moving to the Spanish auction. The first thing I would like to say, I was insisting on that one, I was saying that the Spanish market works properly. I was saying the auctions, the government desire, respect the decision of the government. I think the market is working properly. With auction or without auction, my expectation is the market fundamentals will remain similar. We see during those days an increase in renewable production. I think this already pushing the prices down. I think that was happening for the last two decades.

I think when C9, in the company in the last 20 years, when there are a lot of hydro production, it was not already much wind at that time, zero solar. I think it's when they were already high hydro production, the spot prices fall down. Which I think that continued working well. I think we are seeing those days in the same manner. I think the auction or no auction, we have not seen any impact we were not already expecting. The fact, we have already considered all those things and this effect in our estimate in our long-term plan. I think we are considering that when there are already high production, the prices fall down, and when there are no production, the prices went up. I think that is considered in our estimates.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Second question related as to the offshore wind as well. It is coming from Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley, Gonzalo Sánchez-Bordona, UBS, and Manuel Palomo, Exane BNP Paribas. Could you provide an update on the progress of Vineyard Wind and Wind 's on offshore wind? Could you outline which U.S. auction this year you are confident Iberdrola can be competitive in?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

We expect to receive the BOEM permit soon, probably, I hope, probably in the next few weeks. With this, we plan to start the construction this year. Our plan is to have Vineyard Wind operational by 2024. I think it's good news, as you know, that the PTC has been extended. I think they will allow to receive 30% instead of 18% it was already the previous plan. Additionally, we have already Park City Wind. It's another 100 MW. Good, we have already the PPAs with Connecticut. That, I think, we are already working in the project. We expect with the today's best estimate that this plan can already start production, construction next year into operation in 2025. We have another one, which is Kitty Hawk, which is 2,000 MW. We have already submitted a construction plan to be ready afterwards.

On your point, we have already the Soon 522, another 3,400 MW. We gave us access to the auction in the area this year. I think as you have already seen the presentation, there are already opportunities, new auctions in Massachusetts. They are already in New York, Connecticut and some in Long Island as well. There are a few of them, which I think this year, we expect to be already competitive in all those ones and to gain one of those. We are optimistic about Vineyard, we expect to be competitive in all sections, which is going to happen in the next few days. You know that the Biden administration is very much focused in celebrating the construction of new offshore. I think they have ambitious goals.

I think in this sense, already we are in talks with the administration, and we feel that for accelerating that one will be already needed, and they are already aware on that one, to make already permitting more agile, to make already bigger auction to produce already critical mass to improve local value chains. I think it's important. This equipment will be already produced locally as much as we can. I think it's needed as well to have a much longer visibility of PTC, than now we stand up to 2026, but should be good. Last one, I think something we can already diminish the cost for the citizens is the promotion of corridors for connection of the wind farm to the grid to improve the agility and reduce costs.

As you know now, each of the transmission, that is one of the areas which is already diminishing the competitiveness of certain wind farms, is that each of the project have to make their own transmission for connection to the mainland. They already generate and they make already proper corridors that can already help to make already much agile connection and much increase the competitiveness of all the projects.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

There is an additional follow-up question on these offshore wind questions, and it's coming from the same people, Rob, Gonzalo, Manuel, plus [Mike Baker from Davidson]. What markets are you looking to for expansion in your renewables pipeline? Secondly, in which market do you expect to achieve higher returns in offshore?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think which market we are looking, I think I mentioned already. I think we have already the auctions. The next auction we are planning to participate is in the U.K., which is going to be held beginning of next year, what we are going to participate with our East Anglia ONE project, 3,000 MW. We are already ready to participate probably in this auction, not sure, in this auction, which is going to be held U.S. There are already an auction which probably we are going to participate in Denmark. In the next few months, in the beginning of next year, probably is going to be already an auction in Japan that we plan to participate as well. I think in Germany. In Germany, we have already our Baltic Eagle project, which we plan as well to participate in this one as soon as this will happen.

I don't know if I miss anyone. In France, it's going to be as well an auction this year that we are ready to participate. Japan, Denmark, France, Germany, United States are the countries where we are already planning to participate during the 18 months, and we are the people already in this moment analyzing and designing the project to participate in those auctions.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Javier Suárez, Mediobanca, Elchin Mammadov, Bloomberg, and Jorge Alonso of SocGen, and is, what is your view on the perception of higher regulatory risk in Brazil and Mexico? How could this impact your investment decisions?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Let's start with Brazil. I think the power sector in Brazil, the regulation is very stable, very reliable. I think what we've seen during this pandemic, it was one of the countries who take the first action to provide already liquidity to the distribution companies with the Conta-COVID. At the moment, we don't expect any change. I just seen this morning in the media that personally, the President Bolsonaro has presented personally to the parliament the plan for the recapitalized Eletrobras, and he has already insisted that his agenda of privatization is full speed. Which I think is, no, we have not seen changes. Related to Mexico, I think as I said in all my speeches, we are not making the energy policy. The new policy is made by governments.

I think if the recent decision can potentially affect to all the energy sector, oil, gas, and electricity, and not only that one, also they can already affect industrial sectors because energy cost is essential for their competitiveness. I think if the decision finally taking affect to the shareholding interest, we will analyze this, and we take the appropriate measures. In any case, what I can say is that all our power plants, which are already, as you know, most of them are leased to CFE, continue dispatching with normality. In those days also, I'm very pleased that has already been essential to maintain the service during this very extreme climatic condition. I think our conversation with them is fluent, and I think the government is taking the decision, and I think that is normal in all countries.

Which I think they have the capacity and they have the obligation to make already decide the policy, the energy policy, as they are obliged to make the decision in another sectors as well.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Javier Suárez, Mediobanca, and is related to the weather situation in Texas. Can you give us some feedback on the situation in Texas and possible impact for Avangrid?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

As you know, we've been closely monitoring the situation, our wind farms in Texas. I think it's not normal that in the Gulf have already such a frost, and the frost were affecting to the blades of the wind turbines. I think in this analysis, to give you some detail, our total power of Texas, wind power in Texas, we have 4.2% of the installed power in the state. Even with those circumstances, our production has been already contributing to 7.5% of the total wind production those days. I think that means we've been producing more than expected and contributing to help to restore the blackouts generated by the lack of gas. As you know, the problem there was already the lack of gas for the CCGTs. It was not a problem of renewable, it was a problem of lack of gas.

Same thing in Mexico. The problem was the pipes of gas were frozen and the gas was not already arriving to the power plant. I think in global terms, we are not expect any negative impact. I would like to say, if any, will be positive. I would like to say that in these terms. Something which is important, and this situation shows the need of investment in networks infrastructure and interconnection between the states. I think they are the neighbor states, they have already, which we have present, and we are going to have even more present in the future. They have already excess of power those days that if they would have already proper interconnection, the blackouts had not already existed because they can already flow from one part to another one.

I think that is something the state, I'm sure the new administration is very much aware of that one. They are going to do all the necessary for interconnecting more the different state, interconnect more with the neighbor countries, et cetera.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs. Can you elaborate on the timing of these EUR 21 billion of projects for Next Generation EU? What is the chance that all will be approved, and how many of these are over and above your current 95 GW target by 2030?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think that is not included in our plan. I think that will be, as I mentioned, an extra thing if that happen. I think in those ones, I'm looking on the page. I think on page 62 and 63, you have a detail of all those projects. The onshore wind blades, that is nice. Wind blade recycling, which we have with many companies. More smart network batteries for certain areas. Heating electrification, but we are not going to be already a pump heaters, pump heating producer, but we would like to facilitate that to the citizens, and there are already some kind of subsidies, as we are already doing at present with solar PV to be put it in the roof of the houses. I think you have a lot of these things.

There are areas like public charging, which we are already working, but we feel that is going to be already need to be accelerated. National corridors for electric vehicles, I think the charges is nice to put, but without power behind, I think the charger doesn't work. I think we need a huge power, especially in corridors, if the buses and trucks are becoming more and more electrical. I think there are already certain truck manufacturers which are already designing trucks where they will have an autonomy on the range of 100 km to 500 km, which means that they have to be recharged within 30, 40, maximum one hour. It means huge power. They need charges of 900 kW each.

If you have already just in an area, you need already several of those, you need several megawatts of grid power already installed on that one. I think here you have the line. I think there are areas like green fertilizers, as you have already mentioned. Only with this hydrogen, is EUR 2.5 billion, which I think most of it is will be dedicated to full production of green ammonia with green hydrogen. I think we have a big project in Palos, in Huelva for transforming all the production of fertilizers of Fertiberia in green, and only that one require investment on the range of EUR 1.6 billion or EUR 1.8 billion, which is a huge one. I think, I hope many of those can be already treated as a strategy for the country, and we will see.

I think we had already presented, all of them are according with European rules. I think it's green, digital, and already affecting to 100 of small, medium, and large companies together with us, and they are already present in the 17 regions. I think they will be across the country, involving already 100 of small, medium, large companies for digital, for sustainable, and transforming the Spanish economy, not only to put already thing which is going to be needed in the future.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs as well, and is related to, are the investments in green hydrogen all incremental versus your current plan? How do you plan to fund any CapEx acceleration? More hybrids, more rotation, equity?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think that, as I'm telling you, that is already in line up to 100, up to 2030, most of them. I think our plan of hydrogen, they are two phase with Fertiberia, I can say. One is immediate, which I think the first hydrogen plan is going to be in operation this year in 2021. Another ones are not already included in the plan. That is, I mentioned, additional opportunities. In the case of the Fertiberia, the large one, which is going to be already operational by 2027. Not because we cannot make that earlier, it's because they need as well to transform their production facilities. For making that, they need already special timing for making that happen.

I think it's an extra, but certain of them is included, and the rest will be ready at the end of the decade, which I think there are room for all those things enough.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley. Does Iberdrola [audio distortion]-

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

We have already facing one point. I think when we try to make the first hydrogen power plant, we have a limitation. The largest electrolyzers which can be installed is 20 MW. We were looking across the suppliers, and I think most of them, they are already making a small one, 1-5 MW. Only a couple of them, they say that they will be ready to make 20 MW. I think that is going to be the largest of the largest. We are talking about electrolyzers which have to be on the range of 100, 300, 400, 500 MW. For that is needed already to make a different thing. If you would like to compare it with Gamesa, perhaps it's the same thing.

When I came to the sector 20 years ago, the turbines were on the range of 300 kW. I think the first one we produced was on the range of 800 kW. Today, the turbines are, for onshore, the standard is 4 MW. The offshore, we are within the range of 13, 15 MW each. I think it is needed. I think we see the opportunity to try to help already and to use already these opportunities for Europe to make already just an industry within Europe can already design and manufacture these electrolyzers, the size that the hydrogen demand will require for the future. I think that's why we made this joint venture with a Spanish company, which is Ingeteam, for large-scale electrolyzers.

We probably is going to be joined in the next few weeks, soon another international partner which are at present producing those ones.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Jorge Alonso, SocGen. What EBITDA can be expect, no storm included, for the U.S. networks? With other rate cases being negotiated, including the improvements made in New York, do you expect an increase in the average cost of debt in the U.S. due to the recent move in bond yields?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

What EBITDA can be expect in 2021? I don't know the numbers, probably it's on the range of $1.3 billion-$1.4 billion. I'm not sure the number, we can provide the numbers. I think in my mind, it's something like that one. We can let you know, I think probably on this one, $1.3 billion-$1.4 billion, which I think is 20% or 25% or 30% more than previous year, thanks mostly to the New York rate case, which is now is full year, and last year was only from April or from May. I think always we put in our budget some amount already for standard storms, which I think is those storms which is going to be collected. I don't know the number of this storm.

I think in terms of EBITDA, let me remind that is a growth on the range of 25%-30% growth, mainly due to new rate case of New York.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question is coming as well from-

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Please. Well, that is not contemplated for the time being, any contribution of PNM. Probably, depending on the months, they can already add something to that one. I think if it's in December, it will not that much, but if it's in August, they will add half a year. I think that is not contemplated in these numbers.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Jorge Alonso-

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think the expectation is there can be, I hope, to be better if we can already obtain the permits much earlier.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Jorge Alonso is asking, from SocGen, if we expect further improvements in the U.K. supply unit.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

We are already, last year the result was better than the previous one. This year, the news that we have already are positive. I think it's the fact that the regulated tariff has already included not only the costs which are related, but as well part of the extra cost generated during 2019, 2020 because of the COVID, has not been already registered. That is a good news. I think the situation in Britain is crazy in retail. I don't know how many dozens of retail companies has already been in Chapter 11. I think every week there are already a new supply company which is already just failing. We are forced, the existing distribution retail companies, to absorb the customers with one day to another one. They are without supplier because they are in a rush. We cannot already digest.

That's why I think I understand that the regulator is aware of the situation, and they will be managing things in a manner that we make already improving that one. I think with those things, our expectation is that our EBITDA in retail business will increase heavily this year. In numbers, I don't know with number, but heavily, as they did last year as well.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question come from Elchin Mammadov. How do you expect retail energy supply margins to evolve in your key markets, particularly as new entrants, like gas and oil companies, keep gaining market share from incumbents?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I said always that competition is welcome. I never had a fret of competition. I think as I mentioned, in the case of oil and gas companies with the offshore auction for seabed, I think that's not bad for us. That's good. I think if they pay a huge amount of money, that put more value to our existing pipeline. I think if they come here, they come to the market and they make crazy things, I think they have to respond to their shareholders as well. What I can say is then what we work is to be more efficient, to get better service to the customer, to provide new solution, energy solution, and non-energy solution. I think to compete, I think welcome competition.

I think I was telling you that in the non-energy product, what we call Smart Solutions, are already contributing for more than EUR 200 million to our net profit this year, which I think that is already affecting. The second one is that mostly all our electricity for the year is sold, and almost most of the electricity next year as well is sold, as you see already in the annex. Which I think is. The prices are really similar of those that we've been already seeing at present. Welcome competition.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from James Brand in Deutsche Bank, and it's a question related to PNM deal. Are you able to share any estimate for synergies from the PNM Resources acquisition?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

No, as you know, I think that was already a transparent transaction. I think we have no access still to their internal detail. I think it was already just based on the public information. I think in our 2021 budget is not considered any synergies because we don't know the internal details. There can be a part of those one which are public. I think if synergies happen, it will come in the medium long term, one, we integrate the teams. I think it is for us the urgency now is to have the permits, and once we have the permits, to make already as fast integration as possible, which you know always is integrating, seeing if there are already potential synergies.

Of course, we are going to look for that one. That is not something which is immediate and certain it's going to be ready in the short term because we need first to integrate the team, the system and the processes.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question probably has this already answered. It is coming from Harry Wyburd, Bank of America, Merrill Lynch. I am going to leave you here. Your recently announced project, floating offshore utilization EU stimulus fund already included in your autumn CapEx plan, or are the project opportunities from this stimulus providing bigger than you expected?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Well, I think I provide you the list of project, and we have already just requesting these stimulus funds and plans. I think if there are any potential additional opportunities, we are with many another company. Those projects we presented are projects in which we are leading. There are another project we are participating, but we are not leading. There are many another ones. I think in some of those then we are participating not as leader, but as already partner on that one. If that already the leader is already obtaining the support, in that case, I think will be certain some extra thing. I think it's important. I think we are open. That one is unique opportunity for Europe, for transforming our economies and transforming our manufacturing system and our production system.

I think that's why we are with industries in different sectors, and we are participating with them apart of those one that we have already in the mix, which are projects we have already presented leading ourself with another 300, 350 companies, which are already as well with us. In another one we are with them, but we are not leading those ones. I think it will depend on these people to gain already the project to be accepted, the project by the local authorities.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Manuel Palomo, Exane BNP Paribas. Could you give us an update on the evolution of clients in the Spanish electricity segment in 2020, and expectation for the 2021-2025 period?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

In Spain?

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

In Spain, yes. Right.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Yeah.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Paco?

Pepe Sainz
CFO, Iberdrola

Well, starting with electricity, we see a flat portfolio, so we will not foresee to increase our portfolio. We will see to maintain, to keep it in around 11 million customers. On the other hand, concerning Smart Solutions, we foresee an increase of about 30%, eight by the end of 2025, and around nine or even more by the end of the decade. That gives you a flavor of how this will evolve.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Next question comes from Martin Young, Investec. Please, can you expand on your thinking around whether you will accept the Ofgem RIIO-2 package for a ScottishPower Transmission or refer to the CMA?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I have to say that many things has already changed in the RIIO-T2 since the first proposal. I think substantial improvement has been already made by Ofgem on that one, especially in terms of the low CapEx and in certain incentives as well. The rate return is still low, and I think we are analyzing a potential CMA appeal. I think we need already stability, predictability, and attractive return to. Sorry. I don't know. Sorry. I was saying, I don't know, you have to mute. I said substantial improvement has already happened since the first proposal of Ofgem, especially in CapEx and incentives. I think our point is that rate case, the returns still, in our opinion, are low, and that's why we are analyzing a potential appeal to CMA.

I think something which is crucial on this sector is we need already stability, predictability, and attractive return if we would like to mobilize the required networks investment for electrifying the economy. Our business networks life is over 40 years. I think we cannot really take decisions if every three or five years or whatever, they take decision to change drastically the returns that we were expecting when we made the investment. I think, in my opinion, the British government policy is very clear in this respect. They are very much in favor of climate policies to reduce emission, to make the country the greenest of the greenest, and to benefit of the investment they can already make for the wealth of the country, especially in these times where these needed already things for accelerating the economic recovery. I think we need coherence on that one.

I think coherence between the government and regulators. If the government would like then the investment will make in a hurry, I think regulators have to provide the necessary means for making that happen.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Second question from Martin Young, Investec. What impact have you seen in the U.K. supply business from the high prices in January and February in the Great Britain balancing market?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Okay.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Second question from.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

From whom?

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

From Martin Young, Investec. The impact in the U.K. supply businesses.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Whether you will

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

No.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I was thinking about whether, yeah, well, I think that is a very low impact for us. I think it's probably, I don't know, EUR 15 million, EUR 20 million of purchase of renewable production. It's not much. It's irrelevant numbers.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Fernando Lafuente from Alantra is asking about the net debt by the end of the year expectations.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Would you like that? Yeah, Pepe, you can reply.

Pepe Sainz
CFO, Iberdrola

Yeah. Basically, we are expecting the net debt to be slightly higher than the net debt at the end of this year, around EUR 36 billion, excluding the increase due to the PNM acquisition and the CEB acquisition. With all this taken into account, PNM will take around EUR 7 billion of additional debt and CEB around EUR 400. We are talking around, if the two things are suspected coming into our balance sheet, we will be having, at the end of the year, a debt of around EUR 43 billion.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

In terms of the EBITDA, I think we are already happy with the consensus. I think in the numbers of the consensus around these numbers, we are already happy with these numbers.

Ignacio Cuenca Arambarri
Director of Investor Relations, Iberdrola

Okay. As committed, after 75 minutes of conference call, we are ready to conclude it. Please let me now give the floor to Mr. Galán.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Thank you very much for taking part of this conference call. Let me remind you that, as always, investor relation team will be available for any further information or detail you may require. Thank you very much for your attendance, and I think we'll see you soon. Thank you