Iberdrola, S.A. (BME:IBE)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 22, 2023

Operator

Buenos días, señoras señores. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, we would like to offer a warm welcome to all of you who have joined us today for our 2022 Fiscal Year results presentation. As usual, we will follow the normal format given in our presentations. We are going to begin with an overview of the results and the main developments during the period given by the senior executive team that usually is with us. Mr. Ignacio Galán, Executive Chairman, Mr. Armando Martínez, CEO, and finally, Mr. Pepe Sainz, CFO. Following this, we'll move on to the Q&A session. I would also like to highlight that we are only going to take questions submitted via the web. Please ask your question only through our webpage, www.iberdrola.com. We expect that the today's event will not last more than 60 minutes.

Hoping that this presentation will be useful and informative for all of you, now, without further ado, I would like to give the floor to Mr. Ignacio Galán. Thank you very much again. Please, Mr. Galán.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Ignacio, and thank you very much for joining today conference call. In 2022, net profit reached EUR 4,339 million, up 11.7%, driven by growth in all geographies, with exception of Spain, where net profit fell by 90% versus last year, affected by high cost of gas due to the crisis in gas market, that we did not pass to our consumers, as well as a low hydro resource and regulatory interventions. In Mexico, as well, was affected negatively. In this case, was offset by the evolution of exchange rates. This extraordinary operating performance was driven by a new record in investment, reaching EUR 10,730 million, up 30%.

Our global footprint and our long-term relation with all major suppliers have allow us to increase our investment, even in the current situation of global supply chains. In 2022, we made purchase worth EUR 17,800 million. Also a new record, securing our investment project for the next years. Our workforce reached 14,000 employees with 4,700 new hires over the year. EBITDA grew 10% to reach EUR 13,228 million, thanks to the positive evolution in United States and Brazil, more than offsetting the decline in the Spain result and the slowdown in Mexico, as mentioned. Operating cash flow grew 25% to record EUR 11,123 million, leading to an increase of 240 basic points in our FFO to adjusted net debt ratio to reach 25.4%.

Our liquidity stand at EUR 23.5 billion, thanks to our last access to green and sustainable products. As financial measure recognize our leadership in climate and environment action, in 2022, we reduce again our carbon footprints to only 59 grams CO2 per kilowatt hour in Europe toward an average of almost 300 grams the rest of the area. This set of result has allowed the board of directors to propose the annual shareholders meeting a total shareholder remuneration of EUR 0.49 per share, an increase close to 10% and above the target for 2022. As mentioned, in 2022, we invested a record of EUR 10,730 million, 30% up versus last year, with 90% allocated to networks and renewables.

By geographies, EU received 38% of total investment, around EUR 4,100 million, in which 27% was invested in Spain, around EUR 3 billion, and 11% in other European geography, Germany or France, mainly. 21% of the group investment were made in United States, EUR 2,650 million, almost 2/3 in transmission and distribution networks. EUR 2,100 million in Latin America, mainly networks in Brazil. Around EUR 1,500 million or 13% of the total investment were directed to U.K., half to transmission and distribution and half to renewable projects acquired in the last CFD auctions. The remaining EUR 400 million were invested in other countries, mainly in Australia.

Our Regulated Asset Base in networks reached EUR 39.2 billion, thanks to the investment of EUR 4,700 million in the period. More than 2/3 of this amount was allocated to distribution and transmission in United States and Brazil, reaching RUS $12.1 billion and BRL 8.1 billion respectively. The remaining EUR 1,500 million were invested in Spain and U.K. in similar RAB with around EUR 9.5 billion each. This increase in networks asset will accelerate the coming years as more investment will be required to electrify all energy uses and continue integrating new renewables. In 2022, our renewable capacity already reached 40,000 MW. Half of our operating fleet is offshore wind, more than 20 GW over 14 countries and three continents.

We also have 1,250 megawatt of offshore wind, with almost 3,500 additional in construction, of which we expect to commission 500 in France already in 2023 and 1,300 in 2024 in the United States and Germany. Hydropower amounts for 1/3 of the total capacity, around 14 gigawatts, including 4,500 of storage after commissioning the Tâmega gigabattery, one of the largest power hydro facilities in Europe, built in the last 25 years. The solar increased 13% during the year to more than 4,250 megawatt, 11% of our total renewable installed capacity. On top of that, we have 7,000 under construction. Along our different geographies, they will be in operation, as I mentioned, from 2023 to 2026.

30% of this amount is in U.K., mainly in offshore and offshore wind, 20% in Spain, solar PV and offshore wind. Other European countries accounting for 21%, including offshore wind in France, Germany as mentioned. Hydro in Portugal and onshore wind and solar PV in Italy and Portugal. 50% correspond to U.S., mainly offshore wind and solar PV. The remaining 6% related to onshore wind, Australia and LATAM. As of December, we have EUR 6 billion of investment underway in asset, which will mature between 2023 and 2025. 60% of this amount correspond to the offshore wind project of Vineyard Wind 1 in U.S., Saint-Brieuc in France and Windanker in Germany. All in all, more than 80% of our capacity installation target for 2023/2025 is already in construction.

Reported EBITDA is up 10% to EUR 13.2 billion, showing the advantage of our balanced mix of geographies and businesses. 75% operating results come from A rate countries and networks and production and customer contribute around 50% each. Networks operating profit grew by 21%, driven by the expansion of regulated asset base in transmission and distribution and tariff increases resulting from our stable regulatory frameworks, mainly in Brazil and United States. Energy production and customer EBITDA increased by 4%, driven by contribution of new renewable capacity across different geographies, offsetting the lower hydro production in Spain and the negative impact of higher energy costs in our retail business in U.K. and Spain. By geographies, 13% of operating profit comes from European Union, with an 11% decrease due to lower result in Spain.

25% correspond to LATAM, up to 30% versus to 2021, thanks to the strong performance in Brazil, driven by renewable capacity addition, higher hydro and wind output and the tariff increases in networks. United States, Avangrid recorded 32% growth in the IFRS, thanks to positive underlying performance and the cash recovery pending amounts already accounted for in U.S. GAAP. 13% of operating profits come from U.K., where retail business was still impacted by the price cap, which does not reflect full cost despite increases carried out the year. Fortunately, the government measure implemented to recover pending amounts are working well in 2023, as we'll see later. Our listed subsidiaries, Avangrid and Neoenergia, also released result these days, showing a strong performance in both cases.

In United States, Avangrid net profit reached $181 million in GAAP, up to 25%, thanks to $2.7 billion of investment during the period, two-thirds in networks, one in the rest in renewables. EBITDA increased by 5% to $2,456 million, driven by positive impact of tariff increases and operating growth in renewables. Almost offsetting the non-recurring result registered in this business last year to the storm in Texas. The regulatory proceedings related with new rate cases filling in our jurisdiction are going as expected. A settlement has been reached in Massachusetts, and the discussion are ongoing on the rest of the states, aiming a multi-year in most cases.

In relation to PNM transaction, the Senate has confirmed the new members of the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission, and a new chief of the staff has been appointed. We expect the approval process to move forward in the coming months. Avangrid also has made significant progress in addition of renewable project with 395 new megawatt installed, year to date and 586 MW more under construction. In offshore wind construction works on Vineyard Wind 1 continue on track to reach commercial operation by 2024. In Brazil, Neoenergia net profit reached BRL 4,718 million, up 20%. EBITDA increased 18% to BRL 11,582 million, driven by record investment in more than BRL 10.3 billion.

Close to BRL 6 billion were invested in distribution and over BRL 2.6 billion in new transmission infrastructures. In renewables, Neoenergia invested almost BRL 1.7 billion, adding 554 MW, including the largest wind farm in LATAM, Oitis, with 410 MW installed during the year and 143 of new solar PV. The company also secured future investment in transmission with the award of two additional lots that will add 2,000 km of high voltage lines for a total of 8,000 kilometers of line and 18 substations that will be commissioned in the next years. As regards asset rotation, Neoenergia reached an agreement with Eletronorte to swap hydro assets, rationalizing its portfolio, and progressing in two other transactions.

A partnership for its transmission businesses, which is already in the final stage of negotiation, and the divestment of all thermal generation with conversation ongoing. Over the year, the continued improving our financial profile with debt below our initial estimate, thanks to the strong cash generation. The 25% increase registered in operating cash flow to a record figure of more than EUR 11 billion has led to an improvement of 240 basis points in the FFO over adjusted net debt ratio to 25.4%. We have maintained access to financial market in very competitive terms, as Pepe will detail later on. Regarding asset rotation, we have already completed the mentioned swap of certain hydro asset in Eletrobras in Brazil, and we reached a relevant agreement with Norges Bank Investment Management.

The first step in this partnership will be a co-investment deal in renewables in Spain worth EUR 1.2 billion, and we expect to expand the alliance to other geographies following our strategic fit and common ambition of decarbonization. In addition, we are progressing in different transaction that we expect to close in the coming quarters, like partnership in onshore wind and solar PV, taking advantage of this right portfolio. As well as some of our offshore wind project and in thermal generation and transmission in Brazil, as already mentioned. We will give you more information these opportunities move forward. In our Capital Market Day last November, we mentioned different energy policy initiative across our geographies with a common target: accelerated decarbonization electrification. Some of them have shown significant progress in the last two months.

In the EU, the consultation of the electricity market reform closed a few days ago. The document published by the European Commission highlights two main targets of this initiative: creating incentive to new investment in renewables to improve energy autonomy and decarbonization, and improving current market arrangement with more incentive to long-term PPAs. Vast majority of members of state have released a statement asking for a reform based on the current European framework, which has delivered good result for European citizens and industry for 30 years in market mechanism. In addition, the Net Zero Industry Act is a relevant step forward to speed up permitting process and create new incentives to renewables and network project supporting European supply chains for green hydrogen and other green products, with the aim of increasing European competitiveness and promoting reindustrialization.

In this line, European Union Innovation Fund has included a new instrument to promote green hydrogen, and the recent delegate act gives more clarity and criteria to consider hydrogen projects as renewable. Subject to further detail and implementation, these measures are a step forward to help Europe match the attractiveness of the U.S. framework of the Inflation Reduction Act, which is already accelerating investment in renewable networks and green hydrogen, thanks to its clarity and simplicity. In tax incentives, the now will be easier to monetize and have been extended to supply chains and to promote electrification sectors as transport. In the U.K., new policy documents have been published, like the Draft Energy and Just Transition Plan in Scotland and the Holistic Network Design, reinforcing the acceleration of investment in renewables, transmission, interconnection, and distribution. This policy approach is being followed by the latest regulatory frameworks.

RIIO-2 is in place and progressing as expected, with the TOTEX approved for ScottishPower of around GBP 2 billion for the period 2021-2026. In distribution, the final determination of RIIO-ED2 has been published as well, confirming an authorized TOTEX for our UK subsidiaries that will reach GBP 4 billion in nominal terms and a return on equity of 4.75% plus inflation and incentive, driving RAB grow to GBP 1.5 billion to reach GBP 6.5 billion nominal term by 2027. The last regulation introduced by the government are improving the situation in retail markets, allowing the recovery of deficit created over the last month and adjusting the price cap calculation methodology to reflect the true cost of supply.

Before passing the floor to the CFO, let me stress that this set of result delivers in our commitment to all stakeholders. In terms of social dividend during 2022, we have increased our focus on increasing sustainable value for our communities, have upgraded our targets on decarbonization, aiming to be carbon neutral already in 2030, in scope 1 and 2 and net zero in all scope before 2040, and on biodiversity, targeting to have net positive impact by 2030. Our performance in 2022 already shows significant progress in carbon emission. We will reduce once again to only 59 grams per kilowatt hour in Europe toward almost 300 grams to our peers. In the circular economy, I've announced the first industrial-scale wind turbine blade recycling plant in Europe in Navarra, Spain.

Last year, we also set a new record of purchase, reaching EUR 7,800 million globally to sustain even more jobs across our supply chains, where we made 4,700 new hires. Our tax contribution increased to EUR 7.5 billion with more than EUR 2.6 billion in Spain, where Iberdrola is one of the three largest tax contributors. Following to our commitment with a just transition, we have made tangible progress to reindustrialize the areas where we closed our last two coal facilities in Spain, in Asturias and in Palencia. We have just announced a new manufacturing plant for PV models in Asturias, and we are progressing in development of new solar PV plant in the other.

In terms of diversity and inclusion, more than 90 nationalities are represented in our workforce, and we continue increasing our investment in learning and development, having reached 68 training hours per employee in 2022. We have also continued to implement best market practice in corporate governance, having split the role of executive chairman and CEO. Finally, on green and sustainable financing, around 87% of our CapEx in 2022 is aligned with EU taxonomy. Of course, with this set of results, we are also demonstrating our commitment with shareholder remuneration. The board of directors will propose to the annual shareholders meeting a supplementary remuneration of EUR 0.31 per share on top of the EUR 0.18 paid in January, for a total remuneration of EUR 0.49, an increase of close to 10%. I will now hand over to the CFO, who will present the result in more detail.

Pepe Sainz
CFO, Iberdrola

Thank you very much, Chairman. Good morning to everybody. As the Chairman has explained, the EBITDA was 10.2% up to EUR 13.2 billion, net profit grew 11.7% to EUR 4.3 billion, towards the top end of the guidance. Tax on revenues in Spain will be accounted in 2024 versus 2023, taxes that we are appealing in the courts and that we expect to win. FFO was 24.8% up to EUR 11.1 billion, our record cash flow generation, as the Chairman has pointed out. The dollar rose against the euro by an average of 12.4%, the pound by 0.8% and the real by 17.3%.

Revenues increased by EUR 15 billion to EUR 53.9 billion, and procurements grew by EUR 12 billion, reaching EUR 33.7 billion. As a consequence, gross margin rose by 18% to EUR 20.2 billion and 12% excluding the FX impact. Net operating expenses reached EUR 5.2 billion, excluding FX and non-recurring effects mainly linked to the positive impact of the asset rotation in 2021, one-offs in the USA, reconciled at gross margin, another minor impacts, net operating expenses grew by 5.6%. Analyzing the results by businesses and starting by networks, its EBITDA grew 21% to EUR 6.5 billion and 11.6% excluding FX impact, showing a balanced contribution to the EBITDA from the different geographies. Spain was the only country with a negative performance.

Its EBITDA fell 1.5% to EUR 1,608 million with EUR 70 million negative impact linked to regulatory and legal issues, partially compensated by EUR 20 million of negative one-offs in 2021. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 13.1% to BRL 10.5 billion, driven by our increased asset base, positive impacts in distribution from tariff adjustments and operating efficiency. In the U.S., IFRS EBITDA was 34% up to $2 billion after a $550 million positive one-off recognized in the Q2, linked to a New York order that allows to accrue the recognition of certain regulatory assets into IFRS earnings, providing a more stable EBITDA and aligning IFRS and U.S. GAAP. In addition, there is a positive evolution of the business derived from the rate cases linked to higher tariffs, higher asset base and efficiency improvements.

U.S. GAAP EBITDA, as a consequence, increased 10% to $1.7 billion, not accounting for the above-mentioned one-off impact, which is only, as I mentioned, in IFRS. In the U.K., EBITDA increased 3% to GBP 932 million, thanks to our higher asset base and efficiencies. Energy production and customer business EBITDA grew 4.3% to EUR 6.7 billion and 0.5% excluding the FX impact. In Spain, EBITDA fell 4.1% to EUR 3,460 million due to, firstly, higher cost environment not passed to customers by the group in its commercial policy, the lower renewable production, and finally affected also by positive court rulings and other, especially in the Q4 of 2021.

In the U.S., EBITDA decreased 11% to $760 million as a consequence of the contribution of the Texas cold snap accounted in the Q1 of last year and a $24 million provision for Commonwealth offshore wind farm, partially compensated by 4% higher output due to new installed capacity and better prices. In the U.K., the EBITDA grew 21% to GBP 712 million, driven by higher wind output, partially compensated by higher energy procurements at higher costs, recoverable in the first half of this year, mostly in Q1. In Mexico, EBITDA fell 2.4% to $899 million. 2021 was negatively affected by the Texas cold snap, That has been offset by lower thermal production this year in the country.

In Brazil, EBITDA grew 36% to BRL 2,184 million , driven by better performance of the generation business and increase in renewable capacity. In the rest of the world, EBITDA was up 14% to 427 million EUR, with higher contribution from both onshore and offshore business across the different geographies as capacity has increased in onshore renewables also. Depreciation and amortization plus provisions grew 12% to 5.2 billion EUR, 6% excluding the FX impact. Depreciation and amortization rose 11.5% to 4.7 billion EUR, mainly due to the higher network asset base and renewables growth. Excluding the FX impact, growth was 5.7%. Total provisions increased by 21% to 564 million EUR, 12% excluding the FX impact.

I would like to stress the improvement of key ratios versus 2021. The ratio of bad debt provisions versus billing fell to 1.1%, 3% better than last year. The overdue debt of more than 90 days over the billing ratio fell to 4.1%, 6% better than in 2021. December 2021 financial results included EUR 207 million of positive one-offs. Excluding these one-offs, recurring net financial expenses grew EUR 620 million to EUR 1.8 billion. Debt-related costs explained EUR 510 million of these EUR 628 million. EUR 202 million due to higher cost of debt, basically due to Brazil, compensated at the mid-year level by revenues indexed to inflation.

Excluding the debt in Brazil, our cost of debt worsened only 10 basis points to 2.99%, thanks to our policy of fixing most of our debt cost. Another EUR 145 million increase was due to higher average net debt balance, and the FX impact explained EUR 163 million linked to the Brazilian real and the US dollar appreciation. Not debt related cost increased EUR 117 million, mainly linked to negative mark to market of FX hedges. The record cash flow generation with our FFO up 25% in the billion compensates the growth on investments and FX impacts, allowing the company to maintain debt under control. Thanks also to our divestments and an active working capital management that has allowed us to mitigate negative impacts.

Let me highlight that we expect net debt to be around EUR 44 billion-EUR 45 billion by December 2023, if we exclude the PNM transaction, and around EUR 53 billion-EUR 54 billion if this transaction is considered, also assuming that the FX remains stable. As a consequence of our strong cash flow generation and debt management, our main adjusted credit metrics continued improving and in solid levels. As the Chairman has pointed out, our FFO over adjusted net debt rose to 25.4% or 240 basis points better than in 2021. Our retained cash flow to adjusted net debt was up to 22%. Our adjusted leverage ratio was 42.8%. Our adjusted net debt to EBITDA remained stable to around 3.3x.

At present, we maintain an ample liquidity up to EUR 23.5 billion, with 26 months coverage of our financial needs and 15 months in a stressful scenario, including the possible PNM acquisition. In addition, our sources of financing continue to be highly diversified. Currently, the bond and commercial program markets represent around 64% of our sources. Bank financing is around 14%, and supranational development lenders that have increased these years have another 16% share. In 2022, Iberdrola signed EUR 10.7 billion of new ESG financing, bringing the cumulative total to EUR 48.6 billion, remaining the world-leading private group in green bonds issued. Our average life of debt is above six years.

We refinanced the EUR 1 billion of our hybrid that was maturing in May at 4.89%, better cost than what we had expected. Net profit grew about 12% to EUR 4,339 million. 2021 taxes included EUR 471 million of negative one-off in the UK, while 2022 taxes included positive one-offs corresponding to Brazil and the CIP restructuring. The chairman will conclude the presentation. Thank you very much.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Thank you, Pepe. 2022 results show our ability to deliver a strong operating performance in a very difficult, complex market environment, thanks to our balanced portfolio of business and geographies. Looking at 2023, we expect additional growth driven by investment, EUR 11 additional billion on top of the EUR 11 billion we have already made in 2022, adding 3,000 megawatt of renewable capacity, including offshore wind, and increasing our networks asset base in all geographies driven by new regulatory frameworks in United States, Brazil, and U.K. On top of that, we are already seeing a normalization of hydro resources with the reserve level already recovered and wind output after a low wind factor in the last month of 2022.

As mentioned in the presentation, asset rotation and partnership are also progressing well with several potential transaction in advanced stage of negotiation, which together with cash flow generation and our ongoing access to financial markets, will allow us to keep our net debt around EUR 44 billion-EUR 45 billion without, of course, considering PNM transaction, beating the estimate provided in our Capital Markets Date. All this will allow us to offset the impact of the new revenue tax in Spain, which in any case, we have already appealed in courts. The lawyer will explain to you later on about that one. We are convinced it's not compatible with the Spanish and European law.

The path of rising interest rates. All in all, we expect in 2023 net profit to grow 8%-10% rate if we consider the tax contribution in Spain already in 2022 figures, or mid-single digit if we consider this impact only in 2023 figures. This outlook is fully in line with the forecast provided in our capital markets day. To conclude, our performance in 2022 and our prospect for 2023 give us even more confidence in our ability to continue delivering our plan and creating sustainable value for shareholders, employees and the society. Thank you very much for your attention. Now, Ignacio will start the Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, Chairman. The following professionals have asked the question that I will now submit to the top management, which is leading the event that we have now. Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs; Peter Bisztyga, Bank of America; Robert Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley; Manuel Palomo, Exane BNP Paribas; José Javier Ruiz, Barclays; Fernando Garcia, Royal Bank of Canada; Jorge Alonso, Societe Generale; Mark Freshney, Credit Suisse; Javier Suarez, Mediobanca; Daniel Rodríguez, Bestinver; Jorge Guimaraes, JB Capital; Finally, Gonzalo Sánchez-Bordona, UBS. First question is related to the full year 2023 guidance. What are the main drivers of your guidance for the 2023? Are capital gains one-off expected in the year?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

The main factors are, as I mentioned, in renewables. We expect 3,000 MW of additional renewable, which around 500 of those will be offshore wind. We expect, as I mentioned as well, higher production in hydro, is already higher production in hydro to the higher reserves and the normalization of the factors in the Q1. Networks, new rate cases in Brazil, in United States and U.K., which I think will increase our regulated asset base. We are already recovering the retail deficit accumulated U.K. after the new regulatory measures and as well as certain adjustment in the price cap from April 2023. I think something like GBP 200 million has been recovered from GBP 300 or something that we have already in deficit from accumulated.

Optimization financial profile due, as well diversification of financial instrument, I think mostly green. This asset rotation and partnership. I think we have already the negative impact of revenue tax contribution. It is 1.2 sale, which is something like EUR 200 million. An increase as well of financial costs due to higher rate of interest, as Pepe has already mentioned. PNM acquisition that we are confident that will be done already in the next few months. We are not expecting significant contribution in 2023 in any case. I think that's why I think our expectation this year is to have already a high single digit if considered as revenue or 8%-10% without considering that one.

Operator

Second question is, can you please talk about the other item in the FFO figure which have shown, circa 300 basis points improvement in the ratio?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Pepe.

Operator

What are these other items?

Pepe Sainz
CFO, Iberdrola

Well, this has basically to do with the collection of the hydro tax. Last year, we took it out of the FFO because we had not collected it. This year we have put it in because we have collected it. That is the difference. Just one thing to complement what chairman has said. In the results, we are not expecting a big or almost any contribution from capital gains from the asset rotation.

Operator

Third question is related to the full year 2023 guidance. Is this guidance based on an average hydro year? Could you provide sensitivity in the results if hydro is above average in the year?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Yeah, Armando, can you reply that one?

Armando Martínez
CEO, Iberdrola

Yes. We expect a normalization to average levels. I think it is after the drop last year and the rain during the last months. Today's Spanish reserves, I think shows a level of reserves between 60% and 70%, so much higher than last year. Only, data hydro production in January and February in 2023 in Spain is more than doubling the last year figures.

Operator

Next question: Can you clarify that the 2023 net income includes the EUR 200 million 1.2 tax revenue? Did you already include an assumption of the tax impact in your latest business plan?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Yeah, yeah.

Operator

Third, Sorry, Chairman, the third question is could you update us on the latest legal action against this measure? three question.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

I would like to confirm, I mentioned, but I would like to confirm it in our projection. We are expecting around EUR 200 million tax to be paid during 2023, and that is in our expectation this year. That is considered in our 2023 guidance. I think in terms of the legal things, Gerardo, can you reply on this court action are you taking in this moment?

Gerardo Codes
Head of Legal Services, Iberdrola

Thank you, Chairman. We have already challenged this measure based on its arbitrary and discriminatory due to it only affects to some sectors and even in these sectors affected,

These sectors are not in a comparable situation. Also, the measure is impacting on revenues, not on extraordinary profits. I think that is important to mention. We consider that this contribution incurs in a breach of Spanish Constitution and European law, as the Chairman has said before. We don't expect this year a decision of the court. We will wait to the next year probably.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

As you have already, I would like to insist on that one. I think we start talking about windfall profits and the government was saying that they're going to charge on the windfall profit. I think we have windfall losses. We have 90% less profit than previous year. Because we have not extra profit, they charge already this in revenues, which I think what is the means of revenues. That require a thing is, that is what the legal department is already taking all the action for defending the interest of the shareholders as always we did.

Operator

Next question is related to the European IRA. What is our view on this European regulation? Question number five.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

The I think measures I would like to say, is moving in the right direction. I think, you know, I'm already a European fan, I think whatever thing is doing in Europe is always I'm very supportive because they are very professional. They try to do the things in a proper manner. I think In my opinion, this measure is going in the right direction. The fact, the European Union has already, before the IRA, has already allocated 40% of the Next Generation EU was already allocated for energy transition. Which I think, 40% of EUR 700 billion is EUR 280 billion. The Americans is already euros.

The American are allocating $320 billion, which I think is more or less the same amount than within one year in advance, the European Union has already allocated for energy transition. I think the point is not the funds. The point is how to accelerate the execution. That is precisely what European Union is proposing, measures to accelerate the execution of those funds to make this energy transition. Measures for already the reducing the period of permitting. Measures to clarify the situation of the green production, green hydrogen. Measures for already promoting renewable different countries. Measure to promote interconnection. Measures to promote already more European energy market. Measures to unify more the rules, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

That why I think it's in my opinion, is moving in the right direction. Sure in the next few weeks and months, I think that will be even more making the same direction that has been made up to now.

Operator

Next is could you please comment on the proposed European Union power market reform? What is Iberdrola's position proposals?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

We agree on a reform. Always we agree to reform those things to improve. I think we agreed in a reform to improve the market, but always recognizing that this market has already worked well. I think we have been for 30 years, our light has been on. It has been on because we had already made the investment that the system require. We have already made the things in a direction which promote a better service in Europe toward another geographical areas. That is precisely what is being said by the recent statement for many association and member state, including Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, et cetera, et cetera. Including the association regulators. The market has already worked well, but we need already to make something.

The first thing I think I would like to insist is we have to distinguish. Sometimes the people is already not clear ideas about that. It's two concepts. One is the market, another one is dispatching. One is trading energy, another one is dispatching power plants. I think market is a bilateral thing already made between buyers and sellers. I think the case, for instance, in Spain, 80% of the electricity has been sold in advance to customers. Only 20% is already linked to the spot. In the daily basis, the system has already only produce the most efficient technologies. For that, is already make, in a daily basis, offers of all technologies, all the power plant to dispatch only those one which are more efficient.

It could happen, and last year it happened, that you have already sold your electricity. We did. We sold our electricity in advance. Last year, we had not been able to dispatch our, all our power plant because we have not enough hydroelectric reserves. We've been forced to buy in the market, in the daily market already this energy, which has already eroded our results, as you can already see. That why important thing, dispatching is one thing and marketing is a different one. When we talk about the spot market, the spot market is a complementary thing to the bilateral agreements called PPAs or whatever kind of things, instrument, we can already make this long term.

That why, in my opinion, consumers must be offered more and more long-term contracting to protect from volatility, to improve competitive prices, and that is the key is to promote PPAs. These PPAs can be supplemented with the secondary market to increase liquidity, which I think that is precisely one of the areas which I'm sure is needed some kind of improvement on that one. The actions, fine. I think voluntary action. Whatever you would like to participate in this action is fine. CFDs, okay, fine. Voluntary CFDs.

That will be a solution for some situation. I think we have a lot of CFDs in Britain where they would like to promote offshore. I think this offshore is not nobody is able to take or there are few people which are able to take the 100% of the power generated by this very large power plant. This auction is fine to promote these sort of technologies. I think something which is very clear: electricity is electricity. Independently if whatever is the technology or the date of construction of each plant. We compare petrol is petrol, diesel is diesel, independently the origin of the refinery or independently the well where it has been produced. That why dispatching, insist on that one, is the merit order.

It should be based always in the most efficient available technologies. Marketing is a bilateral thing that you have to negotiate with your customer in the best term, as much as possible long term. I think we are in a situation Europe require huge investment in who like to decarbonize and who like to become already zero emission in energy. We cannot already make take measures. We will not make attractive this investment, which is absolutely needed. Europe require hundreds of billions of EUR investment. I think whatever intervention, whatever measure which is not already making the system attractive will make the money will move to another geographies where they make the thing more attractive.

That is precisely what has been said by the note who has been written by Germans, Dutch, and Scandinavian, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. That is what is my position. Market is market, dispatching is dispatching. They are two different things, and I think that is. In my opinion, we have to be already promote a long-term contract and to promote more liquidity in this PPAs and long-term contracts, to make already then the citizen can already benefit, as has been benefiting already of the lower cost of those technologies we have lower cost.

Operator

Moving now to U.K. regulation, can you please confirm whether you will be accepting the RIIO- ED2 price control from the 2023 period due by 3rd of March 2023, and what the potential for it to be appealed by the consumer group might be? Question number seven.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Question number seven. You talk about.

Operator

The RIIO-ED2.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

The RIIO. Okay.

Operator

Under the second.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

As I mentioned already, RIIO-T, the transmission, we have already the rate case up to 2026. We've been awarded with GBP 2 billion. Probably that will be in, increase this amount because there are another project which are not being yet increased, which is another interconnection, the Eastern Green Link interconnection between Scotland and England, which probably will be already as well in the next few months already finally decide. In terms of RIIO-ED2, as I mentioned, the TOTEX is GBP 400 billion at nominal prices, so equity remuneration is 4.75% post-tax, plus inflation, plus incentives, with a leverage of around 60%. That is why we expect that with this investment, our Regulated Asset Base will increase by 30% by the end of regulatory period.

I think this one is up to 28. 23-28.

That's correct. And those are the main numbers, I think. Okay.

Operator

Can you provide an update on where we are in the approval process for the PNM acquisition?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

As I mentioned, the new Regulatory Commission, all members of Regulatory Commission has already been removed by December 30th. A new Regulatory Commission, the three members, has been appointed. The Senate, New Mexico Senate has already confirmed this one. Has been as well in terms of the management of the Regulatory Commission, the head of the staff, the head of management, has been nominated a new person. I think they are already in line to studying, already restudying again, our deal, and we hope then that makes already a positive result in the coming months. I think. The first point is new people is appointed, I hope with different vision of the previous one.

Operator

Next question is, which are the key points under discussion on the U.S. rate cases versus current ones that will improve the achieved ROEs? Number nine.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Which is the key points.

Operator

The rate cases current under discussion or negotiation in the U.S.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

I think you reply, Armando.

Armando Martínez
CEO, Iberdrola

I think we are in very good progress. I have to say we started filings in the state of New York, Maine, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. We already have a settlement reached in Massachusetts, it's down for 2023-2025. For the rest, we are negotiating. We are in very good progress, we expect new rates effective along the year. In New York for three years, through around May 2023-April 2026. In Maine and Connecticut, also the same, three through August 2023-July 2026 in Maine, and September 2023-August 2026 in Connecticut. Good progress.

Operator

Number 10, can you provide an update for the realization of the New England Clean Energy Connect project, NECEC?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Armando or Gerardo, whatever you like. You re-reply.

Armando Martínez
CEO, Iberdrola

We maintain. We still are very positive about the project. We have a lot of support from several stakeholders in the state. We have the trial schedule for April 20, this year, 2023. According to schedule, the decision will be in summer.

Gerardo Codes
Head of Legal Services, Iberdrola

Yes, I think that the judge is going to have a decision very, very soon. We have had in the last year a positive decision from the Supreme Court of Maine. We think that the judge will follow this decision.

Operator

11 question: How have supply margins evolved in Spain over last months now that wholesale prices are down, generation cost is down, but final client selling price is benefiting from last year repricing?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

I think we had already seen an increase in last month to certain things. I think it's the market dynamic is already making that the customer has more appetite to close long-term contracts and fixed prices. People don't like to live with the volatility been suffering. Those we were already in this linking to the volatility. We have already a significant energy already, which we are selling for an offshore wind. I think recently we signed in Germany all the production of an offshore wind farm, which is going to be completed by 2027, then it is already sold for the next 50 years.

As I mentioned, we need already to make more incentive to PPA for making already more long term. It's funny because we have to highlight that Spain is the country with more PPAs in Europe. Which I think we made the Spanish exception. The Spanish exception is that those country where we have more people already with long-term contracts. I think more than 21 GW of renewable grow in the country has already bilateral contracting with PPAs. Nevertheless, the trends for the next, for the future is certain, the CapEx is going to increase. We are increasing, we are seeing increase in the CapEx of the most of the new investment.

We are already, the rate of interest is increasing as well. The inflation is affecting. The regulatory uncertainty is not helping to reduce prices. That why we are seeing already a high, higher cost in renewables in the future, and that is going to address higher prices. That why, but they can already provide the stability and predictability without being dependent on the volatility of the fossil fuels that we've been seeing during 2022. I think for me, the point is long-term PPAs, long-term PPAs, long-term PPAs, and to give already the customers to benefit of a stable, predictable prices a long very many years to avoid already this one.

That has been already happening in Spain, and unfortunately, because of the regulation and the, this Spanish exception, those customer has been benefiting the lower prices, which represent almost 80% of the energy. So has not, has been penalized to benefit another 20% who has not already had this sort of thing. I hope that that ends soon, and I think that rules of the market will continue on the basis, then we will avoid this volatility, especially for those which are the most vulnerables. And really, those vulnerables are those one who is more heated, and I think we need already to give to them the predictability, stability, lower cost, which I think the renewables can already offer, and we are offering to another segment of the, of the population as well.

Operator

Next question is regarding the U.K. Liberalized market. What has prevented UK liberalized to perform better in 2022? At what are the moving parts for the recovery mentioned in 2023?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Armando, you reply.

Armando Martínez
CEO, Iberdrola

Yes. I think the retail business last year has been very impacted by the price cap mechanism. As you know, the prices and the high prices on gas market through the year. Situation now is improving. We are recovering the past deficit. This is very important news, thanks to the new regulatory measurements introduced. Also, we have heard that the new price cap for April is also improving the mechanism. We are very positive that the situation are going to stabilize, and we are going to improve the retail business this year because of this stabilization of the situation.

Operator

Next is how is cost inflation evolving for supply chains, and how this is impacting leading hedge return in renewables?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

As I mentioned already, those one which is already signed is signed, and what is already made, built is built. Those one which is committed, we have already closed the contracts. I think as I mentioned last year, we make orders for almost EUR 18 billion. I think certain, I already reply, the trend is increases in the CapEx of technologies, offshore, onshore, solar, because certain of the components of those one are more expensive. You know, steel is increased by almost from $300 a ton up to over $1,000 per ton. The inflation is affecting to the cost of the people which are already making the installation. The transport is more expensive.

All those one is conducting. The CapEx will be is going to be higher in, in the future. That why I think, but if the CapEx is higher and inflation is higher, rate of interest is higher, the, the our costs will be higher, and then is that is the main drivers of our cost, and that will be transferred to the prices. Certain, if the trend continue on this basis, the prices we can already offer with the new power plant will pass already this extra cost, the, this extra CapEx what is increasing this extra cost.

Operator

Next is number 15. 15. Do you expect a material increase in solar PV installation in Spain in the next two, three years due to the big amount of DIAs granted by the authorities recently? Which are your assumption for the Spanish market in terms of total market renewable capacity addition in the coming years?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Armando, you reply that one.

Armando Martínez
CEO, Iberdrola

I think, in regards to the DIAs, the permits, we have to say that we are the company with more megawatts with permits during the process. We have been resolved with almost 5,000 megawatts of positive environmental profit. We remain very confident to increase our install capacity of 12 MW, we said in our plan in 2025, and we have a very strong quality and maturity pipeline that could be reached more than 10,000 megawatts.

Operator

Next is, may I ask for an update on the U.S. offshore wind strategy in light of the cost inflation, negotiation of Park City, exit from Commonwealth Wind, and Iberdrola's role in the future of the U.S. offshore wind market, given likely returns?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

I think I insist on that one. I think traditionally all the auctions in America very well has been based in a very stable and predictable cost with no inflation, with a rate of interest almost at zero. Unfortunately, the things has already changed, and in this moment, power plant will have to be built by 2027 or 2028. What was the case of Commonwealth of B or this another one of Park City? I think when we ask for all the for offers to the vendors, they increase heavily the turbines. As I mentioned, the cost of the steel is booming. The vessel which are needed for installation increase as well.

The labor cost for it, for making all these works is increased. I think that makes then with the PPA we agree at that time, the things has already changed so much that we cannot already keep the same rule than they were. I think is that why we try to renegotiate the terms of those ones, and I think that is the process. If we reach an agreement, fine. If we don't reach an agreement, in that case, we will cancel those one and we will go to new auctions. With that, sure, the new auction will reflect the new terms of this one. You have to contemplate then the difference in the, toward another countries.

In United States, in Britain, for instance, when you make an auction, you have to have all, almost all the permits, and you have to be the consent, which is just ready to build. In the case United States, is the only thing you need already is to have already C-BED. Access to, to area for building, but you have no permit and no design, nothing on that one. That makes then the process in the moment you make the offer, up to the moment then the power plant is completed, can take five, six, seven years. With the case in this, in another countries takes much shorter. I think that is the main, the main, the main thing on that one. Saying that is not different of another countries.

I think you see in Spain, in the last few years has been awarded more than 6,000 MW of auctions, and only 1,300 has been built. Many people has been renouncing to this auction because I imagine the cost has already as well affected to their CapEx, and I think the price with that already agree is the price which they cannot really maintain in time.

Operator

Based on the analysis of the U.S. IRA, could you upgrade your investment in renewables in this country?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

I mentioned already in renewables is much better visibility. I think we have much easier ways to monetize the ITCs and PTCs. One important thing, we have already potentially power and opportunity. Certainly power opportunity is something which is going to help us to grow already rapidly. Another area as well is the incentives given to the green hydrogen. I think is very attractive. In this sense, we have already some project in this moment for hydrogen. We have an agreement with Sempra, one of the American utilities, to make already green hydrogen, to make with it green ammonia, and we are already in the designing phase.

I think we expect already additional returns for the with this thing, for the existing wind farms and certain for the future wind farm we can already build in the future. I think it's a positive thing for expanding in many areas on that one.

Operator

Next is, any color on Mexico? What can be expected on licenses renewal and renewable capacity installation?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

very easy. I think we have nothing done, and we not plan to make anything in this environment. That's it. We've been moving for investment on the range of EUR 1 billion or EUR 1 billion something per annum to a range of almost EUR 100 million, yes, which is more maintenance.

Operator

Next is, can you provide an update on your asset rotation strategy on the renewables front?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

can you-

Operator

Number 19. One nine.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Can you provide an update?

Operator

Asset rotation strategy.

Renewables.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Well, I think I mentioned already, I think is, we are already with several project in this moment ongoing. I think we just reached an agreement with Norges. We had already last year we make an agreement with,

Operator

Last question is, could you update us on any intention of non-organic growth in Brazil?

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

You refer of some of the thing which are now in the market. The answer is in we have not any plan to go ahead with this opportunity with this Coelce, no? We have not any interest in Coelce . I think that is very clear. In another one, I think we are very much concentrated in Brazil with our organic growth. We have already integrated, fully integrated Elektro, and we have a lot of work to do already with our transmission business, and we have a lot to do already with our network business with the new rate cases, which is already foreseen a huge investment required. I think that is our vision in this moment.

No, any interest in new, any new things, which are already today on the table.

Operator

Now, before give the floor to Mr. Galán to conclude this event, I missed to introduce to you Gerardo Codes, Head of our Legal Services, which has been with us in previous result presentation. Now, yes, Mr. Chairman, the floor is yours.

Ignacio Galán
Executive Chairman, Iberdrola

Thank you very much for taking part in this conference. Let me remind as always that our investor relation team will be available for any further information you may require. Thank you, and see you soon. Thank you.

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