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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Sep 13, 2023

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

Good morning to everybody. A warm welcome to all of those attending the presentation of Inditex's results for the interim H1 2023. I am Marcos López, Capital Markets Director. The presentation will be chaired by Inditex's CEO, Óscar García Maceiras. Also with us today is our CFO, Ignacio Fernández. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session, starting with the questions received on the telephone and then those received through the webcast platform. Before we start, we will take the disclaimer as read. Over to you, Óscar.

Óscar García Maceiras
CEO, Inditex

Good morning, and welcome to our results presentation. It is my pleasure to join you today. In the H1 of 2023, Inditex has continued to see a very robust operating performance, driven very much by the creativity of our teams and the strong execution of our fully integrated business model. This performance relies on the four key pillars of our strategy you are very all familiar with: our unique fashion proposition, an optimized customer experience, our focus on sustainability, and the talent and commitment of our people. These factors have propelled our competitive differentiation. We have experienced very satisfactory sales growth of 13.5%. The execution of the business model has also been very robust, with a healthy gross margin and controlled cost management. On the bottom line, net income increased 40% to EUR 2.5 billion.

Our operating performance underpins the sound financial position in which we find ourselves. We have generated significant free cash flow. This has continued into the H2. Store and online sales in constant currency between the August 1st and the September 11th grew 14%. Let me highlight some key features of this performance for the year so far, which has been marked by a strong execution. Our Spring/Summer collections have been very well received by customers. Sales in constant currency increased 16.6%, with strong growth seen in both stores and online. Sales were positive across all geographical areas, as well as in all the concepts. Our diversified presence in 213 markets with low market penetration allows us to enjoy significant global growth opportunities.

We have complete confidence in our ability to grow this business, mainly because the model we operate is completely unique. This, in turn, drives the increasing differentiation we have all been seeing. I will hand you over to Ignacio to go into some of the headline numbers.

Ignacio Fernández Fernández
CFO, Inditex

Thanks, Óscar. As you have seen in our financial release, Inditex performed strongly in the H1 of 2023. Sales have progressed well, at +13.5%. We have managed the supply chain actively, and this has driven a very healthy gross margin. Operating expenses have, of course, been tightly managed, resulting in operating leverage. As a result, EBITDA grew 16% to EUR 4.7 billion. Below this line, and for comparability reasons, it is worth noting the provision charge in the Q1, 2022, relating to operations in the Russian Federation and Ukraine for EUR 216 million in that year. We have also seen very strong progress in net income, with an increase of 40% to EUR 2.5 billion.

We continue generating significant free cash flow, and this has taken our net cash position to EUR 10.5 billion. I would like to reiterate that sales have progressed very well at +13.5%, reaching EUR 16.8 billion. That's 16.5% in constant currency. Sales growth was strong both in stores and online. Furthermore, sales have been positive across all regions and across all concepts. Based on current exchange rates, we expect a -3.5% currency impact on sales for the full year 2023. We enjoy a global presence, with operations in 213 markets, and with a low market share in what remains a highly fragmented sector. Growth has been strong across the board. We have previously mentioned that the United States is our second-largest market.

In the first semester of 2023, gross profit increased 14% to EUR 9.8 billion, and clearly demonstrates a healthy execution of the business model the gross margin was 58.2%. Based on current information, we expect a stable gross margin of ±50 basis points this FY 2023 . There has been very tight control of operating expenses across all departments and business areas. Operating expenses increased below sales growth over the H1 of 2023. Including all these charges, operating expenses grew 220 basis points below sales growth. Over the H1 of the year, we have experienced a robust operating performance. We have also seen a normalization in supply chain conditions. Inventory at Inditex as of July 31st 2023, was 7% lower than at the same date in 2022. Let me highlight that the end of the period inventory is considered to be of high quality.

Due to the strong cash flow generation, the net cash position has grown to EUR 10.5 billion. As you can see from this slide, we continue to generate very strong levels of cash flow, with funds from operation increasing 35% when compared to the same period last year, and cash from operation increasing 57%. And now, over to Marcos.

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

Thank you. Over the H1 of 2023, the group has had a robust performance across the board. We are satisfied with execution over the period. We have continued with expansion and have opened stores in 20 different markets. Store and online sales across all concepts have been satisfactory. The performance has been strong at all levels. We are pleased with execution of the concepts of the H1, as you can see in this chart. Now, back to you, Óscar.

Óscar García Maceiras
CEO, Inditex

Thank you, Marcos. I would like to comment on some of the initiatives this season which have been driving the increasing levels of differentiation we are seeing today. First and foremost, our priority remains to always work on maximizing the appeal of our fashion proposition. Creativity, innovation, design, and quality are the defining features of our collections and a key focus across all of our teams and departments. A good example of this is Zara's The Steven Meisel New York collection, the Zara Men Origins collection, Zara Kids autumn collection, Zara Home Stripes and Overtones, Pull & Bear's Pacific Republic, Massimo Dutti's Studio, Bershka's Denim, Stradivarius Autumn/Winter 2023, and finally, Oysho's Training. The new store design for Zara, created by our architectural studio, is now being rolled out progressively.

The design integrates organically the most sophisticated interiors with the functional and digital sections, like fitting rooms, self-checkout areas, click-and-collect points, in-store silos, and stock rooms. This new Zara store design is featured in openings, enlargements, and relocations. Two key projects of the year will be doubling the size of the Zara stores at Paris' Hotel de Ville and at Bal Harbour in Miami. Just like all the other important flagship stores recently opened, they will include dedicated spaces for lingerie, shoes and handbags, the Origins collection, the Athletics collection, and newborns. They will also include all the features that allow a complete digital experience. Another important project is the opening in November of the largest Zara store in the world at Coolsingel in Rotterdam, with 9,000 square meters, including a Zara Home.

The enlargement of the Zara at Dubai Mall of Emirates also illustrates well what we are trying to achieve. Two recent openings: the important store in São Paulo, Patio Higienópolis, and the new Zara store in Shenzhen Joy City. All the concepts keep optimizing their stores. Bershka has enlarged its flagship at Milan's Vittorio Emanuele, with the reopening taking place on Friday, while Stradivarius relocated to a beautiful new store of 1,000 square meters in Barcelona's Paseo de Gracia in August. In terms of customer experience, it's important to highlight that the hardware to implement the new security technology, which eliminates the need for hard tags, was installed in Zara stores globally by July. Test operations have started already, full implementation by FY 2023 end, 2024. At our most recent AGM in July of this year, we announced a new set of ambitious sustainability targets.

We aim to have rolled out circularity services like Zara Pre-Owned in our key markets by 2025. That same year, we hope to see 3 million people in the supply chain included in the Worker at the Center strategy, promoting advances in social dialogue, living wages, health, resilience, and respect. By 2030, not only are we looking to reduce our overall emissions by more than 50%, but we are also committed to only using lower impact textile raw materials. Further commitment has been made regarding 5 million hectares of land to be protected, restored, or regenerated for the improvement of biodiversity. And finally, I remind you of our zero net emissions target by 2040. In terms of circularity, the Zara Pre-Owned platform, currently available in the United Kingdom, was launched in France on September 7th.

Germany and Spain will follow over the H2 of 2023. Through this platform, we will continue helping our customers to extend the life cycle of their Zara garments through donation, repair, or resale, and will contribute to the reduction of waste. We are promoting the talent and commitment of our teams in order to reinforce our attractiveness as a benchmark employer. The Sustainable Fashion School is a space dedicated to training and innovation in sustainability. Inditex has established an academic program in textile processing exclusively for our employees, developed in conjunction with the University of Leeds. Our objective is to be an engine of transformation in the textile industry. The aim is to keep on providing our design and purchasing teams with a solid base of technical knowledge covering the entire product life cycle.

In this first year, the course has now been attended by more than 1,500 employees across the group, exceeding 75,000 hours of training. Let me now move to the outlook for 2023. We remain on track to deliver upon all of our long-term goals. The talent, commitment, and passion of our teams all around the globe will always be to, key to our competitive edge. We offer a unique fashion proposition defined by creativity, innovation, design, and quality. The continuous optimization of the customer experience is central to our approach. The strength of the fully integrated business model that is operating at full pace has been clear in recent times. Inditex operates in 270 markets, with a low share in a highly fragmented sector, and we see plenty of opportunities for both organic growth and expansion.

We see increased sales productivity in our stores going forward and also expect the gross space growth in 2023 to be around 3%. Optimization of stores is ongoing. We expect space contribution to sales to be positive in 2023. Stable gross margins have always been a key focus for us. We are making investments that are scaling our capabilities, generating efficiencies, and increasing our competitive differentiation to the next level. For 2023, we estimate ordinary capital expenditure of around EUR 1.6 billion. A brief reminder on the dividend. The final dividend payment for 2022, of EUR 0.6 per share, will be made on the November 2nd. I would like to finish with a brief comment on our current performance. Autumn/winter collections continue to be very well received by our customers.

Store and online sales in constant currency between the August 1st and the September 11th, 2023, increased 14%. Thank you all for attending this results presentation. That concludes our presentation for today. We will be happy to answer any questions you may have.

Operator

The telephone Q&A session starts now. If you would like to ask a question, please press star five on your telephone keypad. If you wish to withdraw your question, please press star five again. We request that you limit yourself to only one question per turn, so we can maximize the number of participants in the session. If you have further queries, you may press star five again after the next person's question has been addressed. Please ensure your phone is not on mute. The first question goes to Richard Chamberlain from RBC. Please go ahead, Richard.

Richard Chamberlain
Managing Director, European General Retail Equity Research, RBC Capital Markets

Thanks, James. Morning, everybody. I got a question on the rollout of soft tags for garments and elimination of hard tags in-store to improve the customer experience. Just wondering if you can confirm that this rollout is on track, and that there's no... and also plans for the recent rise in shrink and

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

Your line is not very clear. Would you be able to repeat the question from a clearer line? I understand that you're referring to the soft tag. What we can tell you, and we have mentioned during the presentation, is that the soft tag, however, has been implemented in Zara stores globally. We have already started test operations for the full implementation of this tag by the end of next year. Right now, what we can tell you is that the implementation is going perfectly, you know, in line with our expectations, with no major incidents. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is for William Woods from Bernstein. Go ahead, William.

William Woods
Head of European Retail and Food Delivery, Senior Analyst, Director, Bernstein

Hi, good morning. Thank you very much for taking the question. Please, could you comment on any performance in the U.S. in terms of sales and also maybe in terms of shrink, particularly, with the new technology that you've introduced? Thank you.

Ignacio Fernández Fernández
CFO, Inditex

Good morning, and thank you. Well, we, we are very satisfied with our performance in all of our markets, both online and physical store channels. They are growing in a very natural way. In the case of the U.S., that remains our second largest market. The business is working very well. We continue to see very significant opportunities for our selective growth there. During our annual resource presentation in March, we referred to 30 projects for the next 3 years, and some of them will become a reality this Q3. The relocation, doubling the size of Zara Dadeland Mall in Miami, refurbishment of our store in Roosevelt Field Mall at the New York State, or the opening of our store in Baton Rouge, in Louisiana. So we, we are very happy with our performance in the U.S. Thank you.

Operator

The next question goes to James Grzinic from Jefferies. Go ahead, James.

James Grzinic
Head of Retail Team, Jefferies

Thank you, James. Morning, all. Yes, I just had a very quick question on your thinking around gross margin. You had great sell-out, sell-through for spring, summer. You're going into the H2 of the year with an extremely tight inventory. I presume you will still be seeing supply chain cost deflation. Your peers are talking about wanting to bank COGS deflation. Do you think there's a risk that you might turn out to be too pessimistic by the time we get to the end of the year, vis-a-vis that flat gross margin guidance? Thank you.

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

Thank you, James. Regarding the gross margin, you know, there are many, many components. In the H1, our gross margin increased 27 basis points to 58.2%, so that shows a extremely healthy execution in the business model. We've also mentioned that the inventory number should be read in conjunction with the normalization of supply chain conditions after a bit unusual 2022. So all in all, I'm looking at the different components, and you know very well, markups, markdowns, currency, mix, et cetera, et cetera. We continue to see a stable gross margin as our best estimate for this year. It is also true that in the H1, we still had some negative impact coming from the U.S. dollar into the sourcing, which will reverse into the H2.

This is in part, you know, compensated by the fact that our U.S. sales are growing as well. So let's say that that impact, you know, is quite balanced at the moment. So nothing really new to report on that field. We still keep on, you know, seeing a best estimate as a stable gross margin for the H2, but I think that the trading update of 14% that we have also, you know, put in conjunction with these results shows that the, well, operations are moving very normal.

Operator

The next question goes to Anne Critchlow from Société Générale. Go ahead, Anne.

Anne Critchlow
Equity Analyst, Société Générale

Thanks, James. Good morning, everyone. My question is about the percentage of full price sales in the H1. Was it very significantly higher year-on-year? Are you worried at all that you have too little inventory to go into the H2? Thank you.

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

Starting with the second question, I think I have answered that to James in the sense that this -7% inventory position is just a fact of the comparable in the previous year. Remember that last year, we had to anticipate a little bit the inventory inflows due to some logistic, you know, constraints. This year is very, very normal. If you just read it over two years, you see that the position is extremely, extremely natural. And again, you've seen the trading update of 14%, so things are going very, very healthy. Regarding the, you know, the full price sales over the H1, well, I think we have reported a pretty solid number of 13.5%, 16.6% in local currencies.

Again, the most important thing is that the creativity of our teams, the design, the innovation that our teams are bringing to the table in conjunction with the business model, are delivering very, very strong top-line sales, given the attractiveness of the fashion proposition we offer to customers, both in stores and online.

Operator

The next question goes to Georgina Johannan from JP Morgan. Go ahead, Georgina.

Georgina Johanan
Research Analyst, JPMorgan

Good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one, please. You talked a while back about increasing some of the investment in your warehouses to drive some automation there. Can you just give us an update on that, please, and any planned timings of when we should see that going in? Thank you.

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

The plan is very much in line. If you have seen our CapEx numbers, that we have released EUR 108 million investment. But obviously, what the company is always focused in giving what the business needs. And we're experiencing very strong growth. You cannot do that without the right assets, and to keep on investing for the future and to deliver on that type of need is something that we will always going to do. But the projects we refer, in Zaragoza, in Lelystad, in Stradivarius, are very much on target, okay? But again, you also see that we're generating very significant free cash flow, so I would say that the execution of the plans for the year are very much in line.

Operator

The next, next question goes to Nicolas Champ from Barclays. Go ahead, Nicolas.

Nicolas Champ
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Could you please comment on your space contribution in H1, please? Because you reiterate your guidance to have a positive space contribution for the full year, but on the other hand, your store count has declined further compared with last year and since the beginning of the year. So any update on the space contribution in H1, and also your any guidance regarding the evolution of your store count for the full year? Do you expect to close down further stores in the H2 of this year, please? Thank you.

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

Well, thank you, Nicolas. Very much what I can tell is that most of the growth comes from comparable sales, but we had positive space contribution, small but positive, over the H1, and this is what we expected. If you remember, our guidance for the year is for a 3% gross space growth with some small absorptions, which will result in positive contribution. But the main what we're seeing in our business is the strong sales conversion we're obtaining in our existing stores and online. So, that's very much the message. We're not changing our view for the year.

Operator

The next question comes from Grace Smalley from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Grace Smalley
Executive Director, Morgan Stanley

Hi, good morning. Thank you, James. Just on the growth, as you say, you've achieved strong double-digit constant currency growth, and continue to on your current trading update as well. I guess, as you look out to Inditex's multi-year growth plan, do you aim to continue to drive double-digit revenue, organic revenue growth over the medium term, supported by all these investments and initiatives you have in place? Or what do you see as a reasonable, sustainable, long-term topline organic growth rate for the company? Thank you very much.

Marcos López
Capital Markets Director, Inditex

Thank you for your question, Grace. I think that, what is extremely relevant is to keep on focus on operations today, right? We have provided guidance for the year. We believe that our model is extremely differentiated. You know, our strategy is quite different to the market in the sense that we started optimizing stores at a very early stage and, developing this in conjunction with, online. Clearly, you see the numbers we are releasing, 13.5% sales growth over this H1, trading update 14%. We continue having a very, very differentiated, model, and, to increase this differentiation is our key long-term goal, right? At the time, we're completely focused on our operations for the autumn/winter, and, we will, you know, update you in December with, what is we believe is relevant.

But I think the importance is the long-term strategy of the company, which makes it a very, very different model compared to that prevailing in our sector. Thank you.

Operator

We're now going to pass over to the webcast questions. We've had a few questions today, the first of which is: Can you talk a little bit more about your new sustainability objectives, please?

Ignacio Fernández Fernández
CFO, Inditex

Well, first, let me point out that we have a strong track record in sustainability. That has been an early priority for us and continues to be a top priority in our agenda. Sustainability is a crucial part of our strategy and is fully embedded in every decision that we have to take. We have a solid culture of sustainability and many internal initiatives and external partnerships. We are on the right track to achieve all sustainability commitments previously announced, and we have increased the level of our ambition with the announcement at our last AGM in mid-July of a set of new goals related to raw materials, reduction of emissions, supply chain, circularity, biodiversity, and corporate community investment. Our aim is to transform ourselves and to lead the transformation of the whole industry.

Operator

Thank you. The next question relates to collaborations. Can you comment on one of the most recent collaborations, please?

Ignacio Fernández Fernández
CFO, Inditex

Well, thanks for the question. Well, our fashion proposition, one of the four key pillars of our business model, relies on creativity, innovation, design, and quality. We are always seeking to work closely with the most cutting-edge talent in our industry. As an example, Zara has just released a collaboration with one of the most prominent photographers in the world, Steven Meisel. The Steven Meisel New York collection will be available in stores and online next week after visiting New York and London. The key part is the combination of external talent with our talented teams is leading us to continually improve our fashion proposition to our customers.

Operator

The next question relates to online. Can you provide us with an update on how your online operations are performing, please?

Ignacio Fernández Fernández
CFO, Inditex

Our online sales continue to grow strongly. This reflects the importance and the strength of having a fully integrated store and online model that allows us to provide our latest fashion to customers in whatever way they want. Our customer journey goes smoothly from online to stores and vice versa, and likewise, our model, with a single inventory, serves customers in both channels. As we have already mentioned previously, it's impossible today to explain the online sales without the strength of the physical presence of our network of stores that provide key logistics capabilities for online, and at the same time, the strength of our online platforms reinforces our physical stores.

As online penetration globally continues to grow, we expect that online continue to grow, and this is a very nice situation to be in, given the very strong growth in traffic to our stores that we have been seeing in recent times.

Operator

Thank you very much for that. That concludes the Q&A session for today. I'll pass you over to Óscar for the closing remarks. Thank you.

Óscar García Maceiras
CEO, Inditex

Thank you to all of those participating in the presentation today. For any additional questions you may have, please get in touch with our capital markets department, and we will welcome you back in December for the interim nine months 2023 results.

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