Good morning, and welcome to Mapfre's activity presentation for the first half of 2024. This is Leandra Clark, Head of Investor Relations, and we want to thank you all for being here with us today.
It is a pleasure to have here with us Fernando Mata, Vice Chairman and Group CFO, José Luis Jiménez, Deputy CFO, as well as Felipe Navarro, Deputy General Manager in the Finance area. As a reminder, we report the IFRS financial information twice a year, and we reported the half-year results to the CNMV this morning.
The information in this activity update is prepared under the accounting policies applicable in each country, unless stated otherwise. At the end of the presentation, we will go through the main IFRS KPIs.
You can use the Ask a Question link at any point during the call, and we will open up the question- and- answer session at the end of the presentation. Let me turn the call over to Fernando. The floor is yours.
Thank you, Leandra. Good morning, everyone, and thank you all for being here with us. The figures we released this morning confirm the strong trends that we saw in the first quarter, which have gained momentum, supported by our profitable growth strategy. We're growing strong in almost all markets and continue working to correct imbalances with visible improvements, especially in underperforming businesses.
We're leveraging our proven business model with high levels of diversification as we continue growing in the most profitable segments. LATAM, especially Brazil, continues to be the largest contributor to earnings for the group with EUR 203 million. Regarding lines of business, life and general P&C are showing an excellent performance. There has been a strong turnaround in motor in North America and across Latin America.
However, in Iberia and EMEA, we are still seeing pressure on claims costs, although behavior in recent months suggests that we should begin to see a change in trend. Regarding main regions and business units, Iberia maintains leading market shares in the main line of business with a 37% increase in the result. In North America, the result is up EUR 58 million, thanks to the already implemented technical measures.
Mapfre continues to grow its profit, supported by solid business growth and the absence of relevant nat cat impacts, with increased prudence in our reserves. We're proud to say that all financial KPIs are in line with the targets set at the AGM in March. Premiums are up 5.5%, over 6%, excluding life savings, reaching more than EUR 15.1 billion, with solid growth in LATAM, Iberia, and North America, as well as reinsurance.
The net result, which stands at EUR 462 million, is up 47%. This strong performance is based on, first, relevant improvement in non-life, with a 1.3-point reduction in the combined ratio to 95.7%. Second, the life business, especially in LATAM and Iberia, which, continues to contribute very positively to profitability.
Lastly, the growing contribution of financial income, which, for non-life, reached EUR 401 million, up 11.6%, and is also an important driver for the life business. With this result, we have delivered an ROE of 10.6%, 11.6%, almost 12%, excluding the 2023 goodwill write-down. Regarding Solvency II, the ratio was 197.7% at March 2024, and we are no longer including transitional, measures. That's all for me. Now, I will hand the floor over to José Luis to run us through the main figures.
Thank you, Fernando, and thank you all for being here today. First, I would like to go over the main premium figures. Non-life premiums are up 6.5% to nearly EUR 12 billion, with general P&C up over 4%, accidents and health, 8%, and auto, 5.5%. Life premiums are growing around 2%, with savings flat after a really strong first half in Iberia last year. Life protection is growing well over 10%, with excellent performance in Mexico.
The reinsurance segment is growing close to 9%. As you can see on this chart, our business mix is well diversified, with around 79% in non-life and 21% in life, with important share in high-margin businesses like life protection and general P&C. The main figures by region are displayed on this slide, and I will comment on the main trends.
In Iberia, net profit stands at EUR 168 million, with a return on equity of 13.5%. This includes EUR 21 million from the sale of a property in Madrid due to the regular portfolio rotation. Non-life is up 6.4%, with the strong trends in homeowners, condominiums, and health.
Life savings premiums are down to an extraordinary 2023, while protection is growing around 4%. LATAM continued to generate a large share of profit with EUR 203 million and a return on equity of 17%. Non-life profitability has improved across the region, and the life business and financial income continue performing very positively.
Regarding Brazil, profitability has been exceptional, with a return on equity of 23%, and the net result is up to EUR 121 million, including a EUR 6 million loss from the floods in Rio Grande do Sul. In local currency, premiums are up 1%, and in euros, reflect the slight depreciation of the Brazilian real. The non-life combined ratio is down significantly to 77%, with motor improving 2.5 points and general P&C at an excellent 68.6%.
The life protection business also had a strong contribution to results. The rest of the countries in LATAM maintained their strong profitability, contributing EUR 82 million. Regarding North America, the net result is up nearly EUR 60 million, reaching EUR 41 million compared to losses of EUR 80 million the previous year.
Underwriting measures and strong tariff increases are the main drivers, with premiums up almost 5%, which continue feeding into P&L. The combined ratio is down over eight points, now under 100. In Puerto Rico, premium volume is slightly up, with a net profit of nearly EUR 10 million. In EMEA, the losses has improved by EUR 6 million, down to EUR 8 million. In Turkey, financial income is boosting results with a profit of over EUR 50 million.
On the other hand, auto remains challenging in Germany and Italy. In Mapfre , premiums are up 5.5. The combined ratio is down to 95% , supported by tariff, especially for car covers. So a reminder, this is a traditional formula ratio. Other reinsurers that are now reporting under IFRS may treat reinsurance commission differently, typically posting lower ratios. The flood in Rio Grande do Sul had a EUR 41 million net impact.
There has been no other relevant catastrophic events, but we are seeing an increase in secondary perils. Net profit is nearly EUR 140 million, up 50%, and return on equity is over 12%. MAWDY continues growing and posts a net result of EUR 3 million. I would also like to comment on two specific items. Hyperinflation had a EUR 36 million impact, mainly from Argentina, and positive tax adjustment from previous year had a EUR 25 million impact.
On the right, you can see the combined ratios by segment. General P&C had an extraordinary performance. Premiums are up over 4%, and the combined ratio is down almost three points to around 83. The net result was nearly EUR 199 million, up EUR 54 million. In Brazil, premiums are down 2%, with agro temporarily lower due to the subsidy allocation calendar.
We expect premiums to catch up during the year. The net result of EUR 70 million reflects a limited impact from Rio Grande do Sul flooding. The combined ratio stand at an excellent 68.6%. In Iberia, premiums are up 7%, driven by homeowners and condominiums. The result is up 40% to almost EUR 74 million, and the combined ratio is down eight points to 95.
North America reported a result of EUR 21 million compared to EUR 2 million in 2023, with an excellent combined ratio of 89.7 on the back of tariff adjustments in homeowners. Other LATAM also increased its contribution to the result by EUR 70 million. In summary, general P&C, our largest line of business, is highly profitable and diversified.
In autos, we are starting to see some green shoots in motor with a strong reduction in net losses, down from nearly EUR 53.6 million last year to just EUR 19 million. Iberia is still experiencing volatility, while tariff increases are gradually feeding into results. The turnaround in the U.S. was noteworthy, with Brazil and North America now reporting profits.
Other markets in Latin America are performing quite well, mitigating the complicated situation in Germany and Italy. The group's strategy is to focus on profitable growth. Premiums are up 5.5%, with insured units down around 6% as a result of selective underwriting. In Iberia, premiums were up 5.7%. The portfolio stand at around 6 million vehicles, down under 3%. We are focusing more on retail than fleets, in line with our risk appetite.
There has been a relevant increase in the average premium, around 8.4%, with the market only up 7.8%. We are confident that we are now pricing above expected claim inflation. In North America, premiums grew almost 8%, with units down 5.6%. In Brazil, premiums are down 4.4%. The portfolio of vehicles is down 1%, where we also have a lower appetite for fleets.
The group auto combined ratio was 104.8, improving 1.4 percentage points. Iberia reached 106 in the first half of the year. We are seeing some pressure on claim costs, especially in bodily injury, while material damage claims are very well controlled. Premiums earned are up 4.5%, still below the 6% growth rate, and will continue to catch up.
In North America, the rate improved over 7.5 points and will also continue to come down based on tariff. Sorry. Just this quarter, we put through an additional 5% increase. Brazil's combined ratio is down 2.5 points to 101.6. We are committed to continue adjusting pricing as much as necessary while defending our portfolio.
Tariff still need to earn through P&L in certain markets. Brazil and the U.S. have already improved, while Spain and EMEA will need some time to reach optimal profitability levels. Data in recent months make us more confident that we are on track. Now we move into the life business, which is another relevant con- profit contributor. Direct issuance premiums are up nearly EUR 130 million.
Savings is slightly down because of the extraordinary issuance of Iberia in 2023, but it still stands at over EUR 1.5 billion, while protection is growing over 10%. In Iberia, life protection is up 4%, outperforming the market, with a combined ratio improving over one point to 67.9%.
The financial result was strong, with net realized gains up from EUR 2 million -EUR 30 million due to the sale of a real estate as well as recurring financial gain. In Brazil, life protection premiums are up over 6% in local currency, and the combined ratio stand at 82.4%, up two points, reflecting higher commission, but still at excellent levels.
In the rest of LATAM, life issuance is up 35%. Mexico stands out with 60% growth in life protection. The net result for the life business reached EUR 167 million, up 37%. Now, I will hand the floor over to Felipe to discuss the main balance sheet items.
Thank you very much, José Luis. On the left of the slide, you can see our capital structure. Shareholders' equity is over EUR 8 billion, quite stable throughout the year. Currency conversion differences have been limited, with the U.S. dollar and Latin American currency appreciation offsetting the 10% depreciation of Brazilian real. Leverage is stable at 23%.
Regarding investments, the main changes in asset allocation are related to: a reduction in government bonds in Brazil for a dividend upstreaming, as well as currency depreciation, a lower cash and equivalent instruments switching into short-duration bonds.
Spanish sovereign debt continues to be the largest exposure, with EUR 9.5 billion. We have more than EUR 13 billion in assets under management through pension and mutual funds, placing us among the leading non-bank players in Spain.
As a reminder, a large share of our EUR 31 billion fixed income portfolio is immunized or matched, so we will focus on the actively managed portfolios, which are the main contributors to the net income. The euro area portfolios have a market value of over EUR 12 billion. During the year, duration is down and yields are steadily increasing.
Yields on Iberia, non-life and re continue their upward trend, reaching 2.6% and 2.7% respectively, with reinvestment rates still above the portfolio yields. The other main markets amount to around EUR 7.6 billion. We have increased duration by 60 basis points in Brazil and 10 basis points in the U.S., although LATAM is down by 30 basis points. Yields are relatively unchanged in both North America and other LATAM. In Brazil, our portfolios are well positioned.
Although yields are down by over one point, the market yield is of nearly 10%, is now well above the current portfolio. Non-life financial income is up EUR 42 million, growing 12%. Iberia is up, mainly due to the real estate gains that we already mentioned. Mapfre and other LATAM will also continue growing when North America and Brazil has been stable.
In EMEA, we have been tactically reducing our exposure to euro-denominated investments in Turkey, and we are now investing at higher rates while currency gains are down. We realized EUR 33 million net financial gains over the year, proof of Mapfre's ability to generate alternative source of income. Here you can see the main KPIs under IFRS 17 and 9 compared to our local GAAP. Insurance revenue is up over 6%, in line with premium growth, excluding life savings, reaching EUR 12.7 billion.
The net result stands at EUR 494 million, up 65%, with an ROE of 10.4%. The main differences are related to the discounting impacts as well as changes in the interest rates. The combined ratio was 93.6%, down 2.5 points year-on-year. We are calculating both ratios under the same methodology, treating reinsurance commissions as a lower expense.
Shareholders' equities amounts to over EUR 8.5 billion under IFRS, and it's relatively stable under both standards. The CSM was EUR 2.5 billion, down over 3%, mainly due to the currency depreciation, with a EUR 60 million total impact, mainly from the real, as well as a higher life protection commissions in Brazil. The CSM, net of tax and minorities, was EUR 1.5 billion, slightly up compared to the year-end. I will now hand the floor to Fernando for a few closing remarks. Fernando?
Thank you, José Luis. Thank you, Felipe, for your quite comprehensive presentations. To wrap up, we have now reported two quarters with excellent results that confirm that we are aiming for with our new strategic plan, and all financial KPIs are on track. We continue growing above inflation. Tariffs are being updated to the new economic context.
The group is well focused on profitable growth, concentrated on high-margin businesses like life protection and general P&C or other strategic segments like health. We keep setting new premium and revenue records, and this should continue in the second half of the year. Once again, our proven business model, based on high levels of diversification, both by geographic and product mix, allows us to face the challenges from the geopolitical context with a sustainable result.
This puts us in a strong position to leverage growth opportunities and overcome any headwinds that come our way. The other business is getting back on track in most countries, and we're turning around loss-making segments in the countries that are facing the biggest challenges. We did it already in Brazil.
The U.S. is now showing excellent performance, and we're sure in the near future, Iberia will do the same. We're managing our investment portfolio prudently, and as long as market rates stay above portfolio yields, we expect financial income to continue growing in the coming quarters.
Finally, our financial strength will continue to underpin future growth and our commitment to value creation for shareholders. Thank you very much for your attention. I will now hand the floor over to Leandra to begin the Q&A session.
Thank you, Fernando. Although most of you are already familiar with the process, just as a reminder, you can use the Q&A tool at the bottom of your screen, and we will organize the questions by topic and answer them as time allows.
The first set of questions that we have are regarding the business in Iberia. We received a question from Santander, Banco Santander, where they're asking about the strong performance in Iberia life profitability, especially in life savings. Any reason? Any one-offs? Is this sustainable?
Thank you, Juan Pablo. Yeah, life, I think, is performing well, and we also expect that life savings continue to do so on the second half of the year. The reason to say something like this is because, you know, there is not too much competition in terms of saving products, and I think that the insurer will have an important role to play. So we are working on that, and we expect to launch new products on the coming month.
Thank you. Also, just as a reminder, we did have one one-off in the financial income, which mainly affected the Life Business, which was EUR 21 million from the sale of real estate for a property in Madrid. If you need further information, it's in the disclosure. We also received another set of questions for the non-Life business overall.
Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank would like to know about the drivers for the uptick in the P&C combined ratio in Iberia and our outlook for 2025. Paz Ojeda has a similar question and would like to know the reasons for the different trend in our ratio compared to other market players, in particular in general P&C.
Okay, Paz, I mean, the main reasons for this uptick in the general P&C is related with mainly with commercial lines that had an excellent performance during the first quarter. In any case, I mean, taking into account this kind of business, I think that we need to look on a half-year basis, since there could be some volatility and some changes between one quarter and the other. The general trend is still positive, and we think that that is going to continue, and it's going to be underpinning the good performance of the business in Iberia overall.
There's Paz also has another question regarding the health business. She notes that the seasonal improvement in the health business that we usually see in 2Q has been less than other quarters. Is there anything we need to comment specifically regarding the health business?
I think that this mainly comes from the same trend as we had in previous years, is showing a better second quarter than the first quarter, and we will continue improving during the year. Because of the way this business is being accounted and how the premiums are earned by the beginning of the year. We expect that it's going to continue improving during the rest of the year, and we don't see any... no special threats on this line of business.
Thank you, Felipe. Paz also has one more question on the Spanish, Spanish business regarding the tax rate. In the second quarter standalone, the rate in Spain was quite low. Could you explain this, please a nd can we extrapolate this to the rest of the year?
I think that we cannot extrapolate this for the rest of the year. This is the—I mean, there was this allocation of this review of the taxes that usually happens in the month of July and happen in the month of June. This is the main—is just a calendar adaptation, just for this year. There is nothing that is going to change the tax rate in Spain, and it's going to continue quite stable during the rest of the year.
Thank you, Felipe. We can also give you more specific data regarding the tax impacts after the analyst call. We have another question from Carlos Peixoto, and actually several analysts regarding the general P&C business in Brazil.
David Barma also and Ivan Bokhmat would like to know if the current levels of profitability are sustainable over the medium term, what would be needed for this to be reversed, and what are the drivers of the outperformance in this line of business in the general P&C, and I guess agro business in Brazil?
Well, we have to say that the performance of the business in Brazil has been outstanding, and we will keep those levels of profitability. That will be great, b ut it is sure that at some point it could deteriorate a bit, but not too much. So we are confident that the levels in Brazil will continue for the time being.
Just for the sake of the... I mean, just repeating something that was already said up there during the presentation, is that there was a certain mismatch or between the moment that different tax, sorry, the different allowances were made on the Brazil agro business, so we expect that it's going to catch up during the rest of the year. So, nothing to be scared of or nothing to be, it's not nothing to be threatening the increase of the levels of premiums in the business in Brazil for general P&C.
Thank you, Felipe. I think the next question from Paz Ojeda was asking about the sharp slowdown in the second quarter of in premiums, and again, like Felipe said, it was regarding the calendar of subsidy allocation for the agro business. Thank you. Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank has a question regarding the auto business in Brazil. He noticed a slight uptick on the quarter and would like to know whether we could expect it to fall below 100% this year, and what is our outlook for 2025?
Well, I would say in the case of Brazil, the combined ratio is very close to 100%. We also should bear in mind that rates in Brazil as well are around 10%. This is a rate that we would like to see in the rest of the market as well. But as well we, as we are doing in the case of Spain, we are trying to be more selective in on the customer base. We are reducing our exposure to fleets and putting more focus on customers. So we expect that the ratio will continue improving in the coming quarters as well.
Thank you. We're going to move on to another business region. We have questions regarding EMEA. Ivan Bokhmat would like, has commented that the business has turned around quite nicely. Should we assume a positive result moving forward, or have there been any one-offs in the second quarter?
Well, in the case of EMEA, you know, we have four countries. Turkey is performing extremely well. You know, the profit during the first half of the year has been around EUR 50 million. It is true that we have one one-off in the selling of the life unit in Turkey, but the company is performing extremely well.
O nce again, I mean, with rates around 50% in our reinvestment, I think the financing contribution is great. So in Turkey, we expect as well that the outlook for the country will improve in the second half of the year. If inflation continues going down, as everybody are seeing in the country right now, we see that the performance of the unit will continue. Malta is performing well, I mean, selling overall life savings products.
We also expect a better second half of the year with new products on the shelf, and Italy is performing in line with our expectation. The main issue has been Germany, but we are putting all the focus trying to reduce the combined ratio in autos.
Thank you, José Luis. We have another question moving on to North America. Max from JB Capital would like to know if we could get the 100% combined ratio in North America motor ahead of a 4Q year-end.
Yes, we are working on that to be below 100. Probably, we are just around the corner, and if we see the trend continue, we have seen in the last months, I'm sure that we will be below 100.
Thank you, José Luis. I think moving on to the next set of questions, Ivan Bokhmat has commented on the impact in the group from the losses from the flooding in Brazil. Given the industry estimate, it seems that we had a low impact. What is our expectation going forward?
I think that we are excellently protected. I mean, from the direct insurance point of view, I think that we've been booking the maximum loss that we can have from this event, and that is under EUR 6 million.
From the reinsurance perspective, I think that we already been commenting on how is our policy, how is our retention is limited in this kind of business a nd I think that we've been extremely prudent with the reserves that we are putting on this event. I n any case, is not higher than EUR 40 million. I think that we are counting on a EUR 37 million net.
So I think that we are quite confident that it's going to have a limited impact on the numbers of the group. In any case, I think that we need to continue seeing the development of the claim, but we are quite confident that our reserves are more than enough.
Thank you, Felipe. We have some questions regarding North America and the rest of Latin America, especially in the P&C business. Juan Pablo from Banco Santander would like to know what was behind the significant drop in the combined ratio? Was there anything extraordinary? Is the improvement in other LATAM and North America sustainable?
I think that we need to divide this between the two regions. I think that North America has experienced an excellent first half of the year. It was related to two main drivers. First one was related with increasing premiums that we were doing since last year a nd together with this, there was quite a benign weather during this first half of the year. So that put us in a very nice situation for the general P&C and mainly the homeowners business in North America.
LATAM is still performing well and moves swiftly into the profitability for the general P&C. T his Combined Ratio should be totally adequate for running this line of business. So, nothing extraordinary that we need to mention on the Combined Ratios in LATAM, North America, apart from these two comments that we've been announcing since the beginning of the year. I think that what we are doing is collecting the fruits that we've been planting during last year.
Thank you, Felipe. Going back to Brazil, we received a question from Max at JB Capital regarding if we have any actions in place in order to protect ourselves from future depreciation of the Brazilian real.
No, not yet. I mean, the real depreciation probably has been a shock during the last, I would say, two months, which in most of the cases is related about two issues. One is the fiscal adjustment from the government, and the second one is the new or potential candidate to run the central bank in Brazil. But we are confident that one of the, these two events could be resolved in the coming month, and probably we will see some improvements on the effects from now till the end of the year.
Thank you, José Luis. I don't know if you want to add something else.
Yeah, there's something that we need to mention as well. I think that the way we are protecting our exposure to this kind of devaluation is that we are distributing dividends as frequently and as often as we can in order to bring back the different monies into euros as fast as possible a nd this is the best way to protect the regular business from the devaluation.
Thank you, Felipe. We've received some questions regarding the outlook for the life business, for the rest of the year and for next year from Carlos Peixoto at, Caixa BPI. He would like to know specifically the outlook for premium volumes in Iberia and in Brazil.
You mean in life?
In life.
In life business. Well, in life, in Iberia, we have, in terms of savings, that we will continue with the trend. You know, last year, during the first half, we have some kind of extraordinary policies, around EUR 400 million. So we have to catch up from now till the rest of the year in order to improve our futures in savings. But in terms of risk, we think that we will continue with a positive trend, and growth will be from now till the end of the year.
Thank you, José Luis.
Just to comment on the kind of performance of the life business in Brazil. As we mentioned during the first quarter, there was a change in the commissions for the life protection business in Brazil, and it was related with the performance of this line of business during the COVID. You might remember that during the COVID, the performance of the life protection business in Brazil was extremely poor. T here was a decision to reduce and to reshape the performance of this line of business in order to compensate for this period of time.
Now, we are going back to normal, to normal business, and we are moving into the, into higher commissions to this, for, for this, for this line of business. So what we should expect is that will be an excellent performance on this, kind of business in the future.
This change in commissions has already, is already been done, so the, the- what we are seeing right now, the trend that we are seeing right now in the Iberian regions for the, for the life protection business should continue, and is going to be maintained during the, during the future, the future quarters.
Thank you, Felipe. Now we're going to move on to the motor business in Iberia. We've received, quite a few questions. So first, we'll start with the evolution of insured units, and policyholders. Juan Pablo López from Banco Santander, has mentioned, that he's seen a fall in the number of units in the year, and how are we seeing competition? David Barma, would also like to know if we're comfortable losing more volume going forward, and what are our expectations for retention in general for the year?
I thank you very much for the question. I think that is something that we would like to mention. There is something that we need to bear in mind when you're looking at these kind of figures. I think that we've mentioned already that our appetite is to perform better. Following this idea, what we are doing is to try to affect the lines of business or the parts of the business that is less performing.
So what we are seeing right now is that, on this reduction of the number of units, 2/3 of it account for non-performing fleets that are being restructured or adapted to the profitability that we need on the market a nd only 1% is coming from individual risks.
So it is totally compatible with what we've been mentioning in the past. We are quite comfortable with these levels and with this, if we will continue in this trend, we are going to see a much better performance on the motor business in the future quarters.
Thank you, Felipe. Regarding motor, we've received from... I'm not going to name the analyst, because I think we've received from all the analysts that cover us, four questions. The first one is: What were the drivers for the quarter-on-quarter, deterioration in the motor combined ratio?
Number two: What do we expect, what have we seen in average tariffs increases, and do we expect it to continue at the same rate in coming quarters? Three: What is the outlook for the combined ratio for next year?
Okay, thank you, Leandra. Regarding your, the different questions, I mean, or coming back to, to the first one, regarding the Q on Q deterioration, you know, it's quite difficult to guess what's going to happen next quarter. But the important thing here is that we know how to sort it out.
I mean, as well as we did in Brazil and afterwards in the U.S., now is the time for Spain. I n Spain, we know that, as our chairman has said, probably by the end of the year, there will be one month where we will reach, 100 or even below. So that's what we are working on right now. In terms of, the relevant increase in, in the average premium, it's around 8.4%, with the market only up 7.8%. There is another, the third one, I can't remember-
The, what-
The outlook.
What is our outlook on tariffs for going forward, and the outlook for the combined ratio for year-end and 2025?
Well, I think we have to adjust the tariff to the inflation. If the inflation continue high, and we are seeing a trend in bodily injury that is increasing, we have no, no, no doubt that we will continue rising tariff in order to try to balance the new situation. So, looking forward, obviously, we will try to adapt to the market conditions in order to try to make it profitable.
Just if I may, I would like just to mention a couple of things. I mean, just to give you some depth on this kind of how the inflation is behaving during this first half of the year. It is mainly driven by this what José Luis was mentioning, that was bodily injuries that were really very with a very high increase year-on-year, and it was above 20% a nd you have to bear in mind that it means that it accounts for more than 30% of the cost of our claims.
The rest of the material damage and the assistance business is with a really, really moderate inflation. So that moves it in the right way. So, what we can see in the future, and taking into account that, probably this impact is already being adopted in this first half, because there was a reinforcement of reserves that was done during the first half of the year. The evolution of the combined ratio during the rest of the year should be better, moving around 103%.
What we mentioned this first in the first quarter was that we would probably be hitting this below 100% combined ratio on the last on the one month of the last quarter this year. I think that we already saw in the month of June this level. So, we are quite confident that there is a lot of signs that there should be a changing trend on the motor business in Spain in the rest of the year. So that puts us in a quite solid position to improve the combined ratios in this item business.
Thank you, Felipe. We've received two questions on the reinsurance business. The first one from Ivan Bokhmat: What would be our view on a potential impact from a hurricane that reaches $50 billion at an industry level? Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank would like to know our outlook on the evolution of the combined ratio in reinsurance for the second half of the year and going forward.
On the impact of a hurricane in the U.S. of $50 billion, I mean, it depends very much on where does it impact, how does it impact, and is our exposure. As you know, that we've been reducing very much our direct exposure in the U.S., in the south part.
I mean, Florida is a region that we are not present anymore. We have an indirect exposure for groups that we've been reinsured globally in the U.S a nd that will be, I mean, there will be no main concern from us on a face value for this impact in this region.
What could be more important for us will be an impact of a heavy wind or a hurricane impacting in the northeast, where we have presence in direct insurance, and the reinsurance covers are higher, obviously because of exposure in this region. T here will be higher impacts.
In any case, we need to evaluate how it is going to impact, how it's going to affect the regions, and how it's going to move. What I can say is that Mapfre is much better prepared for those kind of events. The reserves are still high for those kind of events.
The premiums have been adapted and are adequate to the risk of the market, and I think that in a long-term business, that we need to look the cat business as a long-term business. We are in a much healthier position than we were in the past.
Regarding the evolution of the combined ratio in the second half of 2024 on the reinsurance business, is that we've been quite prudent for the first half of the year. I think that looking at our confidence intervals on the reserves, we are on the high side, and we are very well equipped for this for the second half.
In any case, it will depend very much on the behavior of strong winds and hurricanes and in the second half. We need to wait and see, and to see if the hurricane season is going to be as bad as is said, and where the hurricanes are going to hit land, if they ever happen.
I would be prudent. I think that the levels of combined ratio that Mapfre Re has are totally compatible for a good performance during the second half of the year a nd those levels should be seen in the rest of the year.
If you compare a little bit on the combined ratios, as we mentioned, between Mapfre and other reinsurance companies, is that we are mentioning the combined ratios under local accounting GAAPs , and that makes us show or post higher combined ratios than, than in other, in other lines of business.
If, if you, if we were looking on a like for like basis with our, with other, with other competitors, would be, at least, five points lower than we are, that we are showing right now. So, so under IFRS, sorry. So, we are, quite positive from this, from this line of business.
I think that the expansion on the capital base of this unit was the right decision that was made two years ago a nd we continue being very, very confident that this line of business is going to contribute on the profitability, on the combined ratio, and on the ROE of the group for the rest of in the next year and a half. Yes, of course.
Thank you. Max from JB Capital Markets has another question, moving on to solvency and excess capital. Given this excess solvency, could you consider inorganic opportunities to deploy it?
I mean, I think that our chairman already said that we are happy with the footprint that we have. In any case, I think that we are strategically looking at certain opportunities that could be built in the not in the next six months, but in the future, in the different areas.
We want to rebuild our bancassurance in distribution in Spain. That is mainly driving the new business in for life. We want to enhance and reinforce certain regions. I think that Brazil is an area where we could grow if we find something compatible with the agreement with Banco do Brasil.
Mexico being an economy that is very much linked to the U.S. could be an excellent opportunity to reinforce our capabilities a nd this, the last acquisition that we made was in the life business in Mexico. Mexico has an excellent potential growth in the near future. We could see U.S. with other lines of business and other states, something very limited, with no exposure in the full country.
I f we want to look at European markets, I think that on top of Spain, Germany, where we have a presence only in motor business and direct motor business, could be a good fit for complementing other insurance companies.
So, those are the main areas where we could see some inorganic growth. In any case, there is nothing on the table right now that could should be mentioned a nd, we are, as I said, very, very happy with the footprint that we have at present. So we don't want to expand to other regions or other countries or to other areas.
Thank you, Felipe. We've received a few follow-up questions on the motor business in Iberia from David Barma. I think they're very much related. The first one is: Can you explain the comparison of your loss ratio and its evolution compared to your peers a nd is this possibly explained by a different geographical footprint in Spain compared to them in regarding claims frequency?
There, I think that different things that we need to bear in mind when we are looking peers against our company. I don't like to speak about how the different companies are putting in place or moving or behaving.
I mentioned that we have policy that is take into account how we are reducing or adapting the fleet business in Spain. That is going to change a little bit how we are exposed in the future. Second is that if we look into the IFRS evolution, is going to be totally different from the local GAAP.
Local GAAP, in this case, is taking more time in order to show the evolution. Under IFRS, we see a quarterly improvement that is faster and is being adapted on a faster way a nd definitely, I mean, the portfolio is changing a little bit and adapting to the new situation.
The gain or the premiums that are going to be allocated during the second half of the year are higher than the ones that we had in the previous year. We are quite comfortable on the level of tariff that we have already been...
We are posting renewals and new business, and we are very much confident that this is going to be changing in a medium term, the shape of the motor business. As I said, there were some extra reserves during this first half of the year, related mainly to bodily injuries and the behavior of these kind of claims is unfortunately not going to change.
I mean, this is something that has been partly because of the changes in the Baremo, partly because of some kind of social inflation related with how the magistrates regard to the look at the different bodily injury claims.
I n any case, it's going to be there and for the future, b ut on the other hand, we are quite confident that we are putting into renewal premiums that are going to be providing us with a much better combined ratio for the rest of the year and, and for, of course, for 2025.
Thank you. We have two final questions. The first one from Paz Ojeda, a follow-up on the outlook for insured vehicles in Spain. Is the portfolio cleaning already done, and when can we expect a return to growth?
The portfolio cleaning is something that is ongoing. As I explained a lot of times, I mean, this is a question of how the behavior of the premiums or the renewals are happening. We change, I mean, most part of the portfolio is automatically renewed.
I mean, the levels of renewal in our portfolio is over the 84%-85%. So that means that we are putting into the market every year around 1 million cars that need to be renewed, and we need to capture those million cars from other companies, from new business, from new cars.
That is something that is continually happening. So I cannot say that there is a portfolio cleaning, except for the fleet business, which is already been addressed, b ut for the rest, I think that we are participating in the portfolio.
We are placing our renewals and renewal rates at levels that are very compatible with the levels that we have right now. A s I was saying, I mean, there is only 1% of affection for the individual business.
I think I'm quite confident that whenever we are going to be profitable again, we can be turning around this level of losing units in the future. So it's something that is already built, is already in the strategy, but it's going to take as much as it needs in order to make this motor business profitable again.
Thank you, Felipe. The last question is a follow-up on the non-motor general P&C business in Brazil, and, specifically, he would like to know: What gives us the confidence that profitability will continue o r putting it another way, what do you see as a trigger or a catalyst for margin normalization or an increase in competition?
It's quite a difficult, I think, quite a difficult question. I mean, traditionally, non general P&C in Brazil is mainly driven by agribusiness. Agribusiness is moving ahead quite profitably. There are things that are that may happen that could affect part of the agribusiness.
As I mentioned in the past, agribusiness is basically 1/3 related to life protection for the owner. 1/3 is on the protection of what is built on the premises, on the farms, and 1/3 is related with the crop business. What we are seeing is that we're still managing a leading position in the Brazilian market.
This is not changing or not dramatically changing in the short term. The capacity that Mapfre has, together with Banco do Brasil in the distribution way is still very high. The way the market is behaving is very compatible with an extremely good profitability. What happened in the last year and the first half of this year is that there were no big events that were affecting this line of business that could be hindering this profitability.
To give you an idea, on the floods in the Rio Grande do Sul, there was already 70% of the crops that were collected, so that was a very limited impact in the farms on this line of business. Should be normal that the combined ratio would grow a little bit to higher levels. That should be normal, but for this, we need to have first, lower prices because of much higher competition, and we don't see big changes in this line of business a nd the second one is a much higher loss ratio coming from any of the three areas that I already mentioned.
I don't see main changes for the life protection side, and the others will depend very much on the weather and the climate, on the climate impacts in this moment. So for the moment, so far, so good. Brazil is an excellent contributor to the profitability of the group, and we hope that it's going to continue for the second half of the year and thereon.
Thank you. We have no further questions. Just before I hand the floor over to Fernando for some closing remarks, as a reminder, we will be holding a virtual meeting with analysts and investors on next Monday, July 29th, at 12:30 CET.
If you haven't received the invitation, please let us know, and the team will be available after the call if you have any further questions or need help finding the information, on our website. I also wanna-- I want to thank you all for being here with us today, and also Fernando, José Luis, and Felipe for joining the call.
Thank you, Leandra. A couple of minutes just to wrap up. First, thanks for your questions, and I guess the answers given by Felipe and José Luis, we appreciate Felipe and José Luis, quite clear and very helpful, hopefully for you. Just a couple of things. One is a reminder, as Felipe said, that when we compare with our peers, it's important to move to IFRS figures, which, by the way, we pretty satisfied.
Extraordinary combined ratio stands at 93.6%, and net results practically is hitting EUR 500 million. The difference between both accounting standards are mainly valuation on insurance liabilities. So for us, local figures are pretty important, that those reflects in a better way cash generation.
Regarding other question, just to clarify, Brazil, I mean, the flood in Rio Grande do Sul is gonna be, my view, a long tail claim. Well, single claim or perhaps different claims, but Mapfre is very well reserved, very well prepared, and so far, most of the cost is due to IBNR, and very few reports, claims has been reported.
But Brazil and also Mapfre , both operations, they perform extraordinarily well. We consider both as a state-of-the-art operations, and we're pretty proud of the way that they're performing. We know that already Spain is your main concern. We know that we're doing what we had to do. We focused in previous quarters on rates.
Unfortunately, we focus as well in 2024 in underwriting measures, and we chopped some of the fleet that was heavily impacted by bodily injury claims, as Felipe said, and this is the main reason for the drop in units that we presented. In any case, we increased the prudence level in our reserves because there's some uncertainties in the near quarters due to the expected inflation on the Baremo, mainly.
But all in all, in a nutshell, we're quite satisfied with the results presented. The new strategic plan, the updated that we made at the AGM, is giving fruits, is bearing fruits, and our view is that the outlook for the coming quarters is pretty positive. For those that are taking some days off in August, hopefully take a rest and enjoy your holidays. Thank you, and bye-bye.