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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 27, 2021

Operator

[Non-English content] Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. First of all, we would like to offer a warm welcome to all of you who have joined us today for our 2021 nine months results presentation. Secondly, we wish you a healthy year 2021 for all of you and your families. Now, on to the reason why we are all here, our 9 months results presentation, which will follow the normal format. Firstly, we will begin with an overview of the results and the main developments during the period given by the senior executive team that we usually have with us, our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galán , Mr. Francisco Martínez Córcoles, Business CEO, and finally, the CFO, Mr. Pepe Sáinz . Following this, we will move on to the Q&A session.

I would also like to highlight that we are only going to take questions submitted via the web. Please ask your question only through our webpage, www.iberdrola.com. Additionally, we expect that today's event will not last more than 60 minutes. Hoping that this presentation will be useful and informative for all of you, now, without further ado, I would like to give the floor to our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ignacio Galán . Thank you very much again. Please, Mr. Galán.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Good morning, and thank you very much for your participation to the conference call. In the first nine months, the Iberdrola adjusted net profit increased by 5% to EUR 2,680 million. Reported net profit reached EUR 2.4 billion, down 10% once we include the impact of the gas clawback approved by the Spanish government, which we expect to be considerably lower after the new measures adopted yesterday. As well as non-recurring tax item, mainly on the non-cash impact of the increase in the corporate tax rate in U.K. Reported EBITDA grew 11% to EUR 8,165 million, thanks to the strong operating performance in the United States and Brazil business, which more than offset the impact of high commodity prices in our generation supply business in Spain and U.K.

Investment reached EUR 7 billion, up 6%, register a new record driven by additional renewable capacity, with 3,750 MW installed in the last 12 months and more than 7,200 under construction. Twenty-seven percent growth in net worth investment, which increased in all geographies. Seventy-seven percent of the total investment was allocated to international market. Over the first 9 months, we have also consolidated additional growth platform in our traditional market and new regions. We continue accelerating our expansion in offshore wind, building on the impressive momentum of this technology around the globe. With close to 3,000 MW already secured to be in operation between 2023 and 2026 in U.S. and Europe, and several new opportunities for an upcoming auction in this region, as well as in the new market like Asia Pacific.

In Avangrid, we expect to close the transaction with the New Mexico utility PNM Resources before the end of the year, improving even more our United States footprint and creating additional growth opportunity in this country. Our group is at the best position to navigate the current macro and commodity environment, thanks to the business and financial model we have been implementing for two decades, reinforced with additional action taken over the last month. Driven by all these factors, yesterday, the board of directors decided to approve the interim dividend of EUR 0.168 per share, payable on February twenty-second, showing once again our commitment to an attractive and sustainable shareholder remuneration. EBITDA was up 11% to EUR 8.1 billion, even after negative foreign exchange impact on EUR 260 million.

Net was contributed almost 50% to the operating result, with growth in all region mainly due to higher revenues in U.S. from new rate cases and improving result in Brazil, driven by tariff adjustment, transmission investment, and the contribution of Neoenergia Brasil since March. Renewables, EBITDA maintained a positive trend in, out of the last, quarters, lead by new operating asset in all geographies, like East Anglia ONE offshore wind farm in the U.K., and higher production, particularly in Spain and Brazil, which more than compensate the lower wind resource in U.K. and U.S. and the decrease in hydro production in Brazil due to severe drought the country has been suffering.

Renewables results in Spain also reflect the positive impact of the reversal of certain taxes unduly charged in the past and the new asset rotation measures which show our flexibility to offset complex short-term situations, preserving global results thanks to our diversified business portfolio. Generation & Supply EBITDA was down 45%, impacted by the sharp rise in the spot prices caused by the dynamics of the gas market, which affected both Spain and U.K. As you know, the effect in Spain was even higher due to the clawback of non-emitting generation implemented since mid-September, assuming extraordinary revenues that we have not received as our production is sold in advance at fixed prices much lower than current spot prices. As mentioned, this impact will be withdrawn and is not expected to continue in the coming months after the measure adopted by the Spanish government yesterday.

Investment in the last 6 months, we reached a new investment record up to 6% to more than EUR 7 billion. Almost 80% correspond to international market, mainly U.S. and Brazil. Investment in Spain reached EUR 1.6 billion, increasing by 21% from the previous year and becoming our second investment destination. Close to 90% of total investment was allocated to renewables and networks was almost equally split. In the last 12 months, we have commissioned 3.8 GW of new renewable capacity, which increased by 11% to reach 37,400 MW globally. Capacity addition include new offshore wind farm in most of our geographies for more than 1,200 MW. 1,400 MW of solar PV, mainly in Spain, with projects across the whole country.

180 MW of pumped storage capacity added to the Gouvães group, the first of the three dams, Tâmega complex in Portugal. Finally, we have put in service more than 100 MW of battery storage, including 50 MW of standalone battery in Ireland and hybrid facilities are located in U.K. wind farm in Whitelee and the solar PV plant on Arañuelo III at Puertollano in Spain. All these figures confirm the acceleration of renewable investment we have reported in the last quarters. In just nine months, we have installed the same capacity than the whole 2020, and we have under construction more than 7,200 both sides of the Atlantic. On this total, 2,600 correspond to offshore wind.

By geographies, 37% of capacity under construction is in the United States, mainly in offshore wind, but also in several onshore wind and solar projects. 31% is located in Spain and Brazil, and the remaining 20% is in European countries like France, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Poland, Greece, as well as in Australia. Investment in networks has also increased significantly up to 27% to reach EUR 3,185 million, growing in all our markets. This trend will continue in the coming years as new regulatory frameworks are recognizing the networks are the backbone of a fully decarbonized energy system. By geographies, the contribution of Brazil is expected to continue increasing, led by organic investment in transmission and distribution in the integration of Neoenergia Brasília.

New distribution tariff were set last April for Neoenergia Pernambuco up to March 2025, and just a few days ago for Neoenergia Brasília up to 2026. On top of this, annual tariff adjustment for Neoenergia Cosern, Neoenergia Elektro have been approved. In the U.S., new rates were approved in Connecticut until 2023, and the resiliency legislation in New York will lead to additional investment in the state over the next decade. In the U.K., in the next days, we expect the final determination from the Competition and Markets Authority regarding the transport remuneration framework up to 2026. Also in December, the distribution companies will submit to Ofgem their financial business plan up to 2028 with significant increase in investment.

In Spain, after two consecutive decreases, the remuneration rate of our distribution has been fixed up to 2025 at a level of 5.58% pre-tax. As we have stated several times, the key limiting factor to increase investment in Spain continues to be the gap, the cap linked to GDP growth, which in our opinion undermines the speed required to reach climate targets. Global emission need to fall by 45% in just a decade if we want to have any chance of reaching carbon neutral by 2050. Fortunately, consensus about the urgency of the benefit of the needed transition is becoming unanimous. I am sure that, we will see this trend reaffirming in the next two weeks at the COP26 that will take place in our home city of Glasgow.

The International Energy Agency predicts that reaching net zero will require investment in clean energy technologies worth $4 trillion per annum. At Iberdrola, we are in the best position to capture these growth opportunities, thanks to our renewable pipeline of 82 GW in our core countries and the new promising markets. Right now, we are investing in flagship project in all technologies linked with the energy transition around the world. Projects like 370 MW Port Augusta wind, solar, hybrid project in Australia. 590 MW Francisco Pizarro solar plant in Spain. 1,200 Tâmega giga battery in Portugal. The 800 MW Vineyard Wind offshore wind farm in Massachusetts. In transmission, we have more than 5,000 km of line under construction in Trevel state in Brazil for a total investment of billion BRL.

We have started works on NECEC, a 230-kilometer high-voltage interconnection between the U.S. and Canada. We have also expanded to new countries with a stable and active framework like Chile, where we are building a line along with other partners for the $2.5 billion HVDC line. In the last months, we have also made significant progress in green hydrogen through projects for industrial processes of heavy-duty transport. To mention just a few, ScottishPower has awarded the largest project announced in the U.K. that will be installed in our Whitelee wind farm. Avangrid has already submitted proposals in several states like Texas, Connecticut, Oregon, Maine or New York. In Brazil, we have signed cooperation agreement with the governments of Pernambuco and Rio Grande do Sul.

All in all, we have more than 60 green hydrogen projects in Spain, U.K., Portugal, Australia, U.S., Brazil, Mexico and Italy. They could mobilize investment for more than EUR 3 billion in the coming years. Finally, we continue to accelerate offshore wind expansion in Europe and U.S., as well as the other high-growth market in Asia-Pacific region. In Europe, the construction of Saint-Brieuc in France and Baltic Eagle in Germany is moving forward as scheduled. The manufacturing of offshore substation and foundation continue progressing in line with our plan to have the project fully operational in 2023 and 2024. We have also started works for the construction of Windanker in the German Baltic Sea, once executed on preferential right after recent auction. The associated investment more than EUR 100 million. Windanker will add 308 MW of the capacity by 2026.

We are taking part in several auctions to secure additional growth opportunities over the second half of the decade. The bids for ScotWind in the U.K. have already been submitted, including fixed and floating projects. We are preparing to participate in the fourth round of Contracts for Difference in the U.K. with the East Anglia Hub, a 3,300 MW project with associated investment of more than EUR 7 billion. Next month, we will also take part in the Danish tender in partnership with TotalEnergies for 1,000 MW of offshore wind farm. We have re-prequalified our French tender in Normandy for another 1,000 MW and in Brittany for 250 MW floating offshore wind project. In the U.S., we continue progressing in the construction of the first large-scale offshore wind farm in the country, Vineyard Wind 1.

The project completed all permitting and authorization process in May and has already secured financing. As you know, we also reached an agreement with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners to take full ownership of the lease area through 534, which will allow us to develop 2,000 additional MW. Corresponding to Park City Wind, a 104 MW project with PPA already secured with the State of Connecticut. In the Commonwealth Wind for which we have recently submitted bid for up to 1,200 MW in Massachusetts. Our proposal include the power purchase deal with 20 municipal electricity utilities in the state and initiative to transform Salem Harbor into a tier one offshore wind logistics center. Other opportunities remain open in this area, like the new auction announced in Rhode Island, New York, and Connecticut.

On top of that, Avangrid has started the process of the environmental impact study of the first phase of the 2,500 MW of Kitty Hawk project in the State of Virginia and North Carolina. In the last month, we have also made strong progress in development of our Asia Pacific hub. We have already more than 2,000 MW in Japan ready to participate in the next two auctions in 2022 and 2024. We are working in three new projects in Taiwan with a potential capacity about of about 6 gigawatts. We are expanding to other strategic Asian market like South Korea. Probably the most relevant growth platform for the group is in the short term will come through the upcoming integration of New Mexico utility, PNM Resources expected before the year end.

It will add 100 regulated customers in the high-growth market like New Mexico and Texas, bringing additional opportunities for our market transmission and renewable businesses. Moving on to the regulatory context, we are now seeing the benefit of the strong and current European energy policy we have been defending for decades. Recently, the European Commission has published a communication on energy prices that reaffirms its determination to lead decarbonization globally and its commitment to market solutions. The communication states clearly that the reason for current increase in wholesale power prices is the dynamics of gas market and not the European Emissions Trading System, which is the fundamental instrument to switch from fossil fuel to green technologies.

The commission says that it's time to speed up investment in the green transition with more renewables, networks and storage as the best insurance against price shocks and to reduce dependency of imported fossil fuels. In Spain, the increase in import prices is affecting 10 million low consumption customers with less than 10 kW of installed power and only in regulated tariff. We represent 10% of the total electricity demand. This customer are subject to the volatility of gas prices due to a regulatory design. Industries, businesses, public institutions and the remaining residential customers are in the liberalized market, which give them the capacity to protect themselves through bilateral agreement at stable prices. Of the total, 70% of the demand is protected through fixed price contract, agreeing with their suppliers.

The remaining 14% correspond to industrial customers or public administration with contract index or hedge due to their own decisions. This context, yesterday, the government approved the new Royal Decree-Law clarifying that the energy negotiated under bilateral contract at fixed prices not linking to the spot market will be excluded from the gas clawback and non-emitting generation approved on September 14. In the case of Iberdrola, we sell all our clean available production through fixed price contracts. We have maintained to our customers, benefiting them with saving worth around EUR 2 billion. In some cases, we have already bought even energy from the wholesale markets and at higher prices than those we have already sold. We have already generated a lower result in our liberalized business.

That happened not only in Spain, it happened as well in U.K. Higher gas and oil prices are also creating inflationary pressure in all economies and the supply chains of some raw materials like steel or polysilicon are suffering bottlenecks as well. Iberdrola's profile provides significant protection in this context. Around 70% of our revenues come from A-rated countries linked to currencies such as dollar, euro, and pound. All our available production in Spain and U.K. for 2020-2021 and 96% for 2022 is already sold forward. At the same time, major equipment purchases contract 2021 and 2022 are already closed, protecting key projects from any potential duration of price shocks. Finally, 40% of our operating margin is protected from inflation increases, and 70% of the group debt is fixed interest at interest rates.

Up to September, operating cash flow reached EUR 6,420 million with an increase of 7%. This together with our debt management measures has led an additional improvement of our financial ratios like FFO and adjusted net debt, which was up 140 basis points to 23.4%. Our liquidity position reached close to EUR 20 billion, covering 19 months of financial needs. Iberdrola's financial strength, along with the proven resiliency of our business model, has led credit agencies to affirm our ratings. We have consolidated our global leadership in green and sustainable financing with EUR 36 billion outstanding. Since January, I've signed EUR 13 billion of new green financing, sustainable commercial paper and credit lines linking to sustainability indicators.

We have significant protection against short and medium-term shocks, but we know well the business project can only be sustainable in the long term if they are firmly based on environmental, social and governance principles. The model we have implemented for the last two decades has made us a global benchmark in climate action, as reflected in our number one position in the last InfluenceMap ranking. Also an engine for growth and employment in the region we are present. We have accelerated our investment plan in renewables and networks to reach zero emissions already by 2030, 20 years ahead of European targets. Always complying with the highest standard of biodiversity protection and increasing even more the 400,000 jobs that Iberdrola currently sustains around the world.

S&P Global has recognized our leadership by confirming our position in the latest Review Global Clean Index, in which largest utilities with significant renewable production were excluded. I will now hand over to Pepe Sáinz who will present our results in further detail.

José Sáinz Armada
CFO, Iberdrola

Thank you, Chairman. Good morning to everybody. As the Chairman has said, let me advance the main issues of the P&L. Let me start by giving you a view of the tax impacts, non-recurrent tax impacts in these first nine months. As you know, in the second quarter, we accounted for EUR 453 million corresponding to U.K. deferred taxes after the decision of the U.K. government to increase corporate tax rate from 19 to 20 to 25% in 2023, no? We have also a EUR 382 million positive after-tax impact due to the reversal of the Spanish levy corresponding to years 2013 to 2016. This is after tax. Before taxes, we are accounting EUR 417 million at the levies item and EUR 92 million in the net financial results.

Let me highlight that this is a tax issue and does not affect the tariff components. Finally, there are EUR 85 million negative post-tax corresponding to the gas clawback as consequence of the royal decree. As the chairman has commented that part, an important part of this will or totally will be reversed, you know, at the end of the year. Nine months reported EBITDA was EUR 8,165 million, up 10.7%. Excluding EUR 128 million of COVID impact, EUR 114 million of the gas clawback and EUR 417 million of the Spanish levies, our adjusted EBITDA increased 5.2%, improving the 3.8% increase at June.

FX impact has been EUR 260 million after the valuation of the rial, that is down 11.4% and the US dollar 6.5%, while the British pound has revalued 2.1%. Excluding also FX impact, our EBITDA would have grown 8.7%, showing the recurring performance of the business. Revenues increased 15.5% to EUR 28 billion and procurements 24%, reaching EUR 15.4 billion. Gross margin rose by 6.3% to EUR 12.6 billion and 8.9% excluding COVID and FX impact. Net operating expenses rose 2.7% to EUR 3.1 billion.

Excluding FX, net operating expenses would have grown 6.9%, mainly driven by the new businesses in Brazil, but also in Australia and in France. With our workforce growing by 9%, partially compensated by the contribution and other operating income included in external services of a Spanish asset rotation of EUR 170 million. Analyzing the results of the different business and starting by networks, its EBITDA grew 11.5% to EUR 3.9 billion and 14% excluding the negative impact of FX and COVID. EBITDA grew in all geographies.

As you can see in the slide, Spain contributed 32%, Brazil reached 26%, the U.S. 23%, and the U.K. contributed another 19%. In Spain, the EBITDA grew 3.7% to EUR 1,250 million due to the contribution of EUR 19 million of positive settlements from previous years and 11% lower expenses. Despite the lower remuneration falling from 6% in 2020 to 5.58% in 2021, reducing the EBITDA by EUR 22 million despite higher investments. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 54% to BRL 6,550 million, driven by tariff updates and inflation adjustments in distribution and increasing contribution from transmission and Neoenergia Brasília. In the U.S., the IFRS EBITDA was 15% up to $1,017 million due to the increase in investments and to past cost recognitions.

U.S. GAAP amounted to $1,152 million, $74 million over the IFRS EBITDA, mainly due to more regulatory assets and liability and the difference in the timing of accounting of the levies. Finally, in the U.K., EBITDA grew 1.3% to GBP 656 million, thanks to the higher asset base. In renewables, EBITDA rose 71% to over EUR 3 billion and 52% excluding the FX impact and the positive contribution from the Spanish levies reversal. This growth was driven by Spain, the U.S., Mexico, Brazil, and the international business. Production increased 12.7% with 10.4% more installed capacity that reached 37,481 MW and higher load factor. In Spain, EBITDA was EUR 0.6 billion.

It includes EUR 470 million from the Spanish levy and EUR 170 million of asset rotation. Output was 23% higher and prices also helped. In the US, EBITDA increased 27% to $652 million with positive contribution from the Texas cold snap and new capacity, but with 3% lower output due to a 6% lower wind resource. In the UK, EBITDA fell 17% to GBP 370 million due to a 25% lower onshore production with the lowest wind resource in the last 30 years, partially compensated by higher offshore production due to East Anglia in full operation since the beginning of the year, although the offshore wind factors were also quite low.

In the international business, EBITDA grew 13% to EUR 264 million, thanks to higher contribution from Australia, France, and Poland, and despite lower production from Germany and initial development costs. In Brazil, EBITDA grew 53% to BRL 688 million, consequence of the extension of hydro concession to recover costs from previous years and 6% higher wind reserve. Finally, in Mexico, EBITDA rose 100% to $124 million due to a 68% higher average operating capacity and higher wind resource. Generation and supply EBITDA fell 45% to EUR 1,086 million. The business has been negatively affected by a lower thermal output, higher wholesale prices, negatively affecting the Spanish and the U.K. business, as well as cold spells in Europe and Mexico.

In Spain, the EBITDA was down 60% to EUR 468 million with a 4% output fall. Higher wholesale energy purchases at higher prices with output already sold at fixed prices and the additional negative hit of the Storm Filomena in Q1 and the gas clawback. In Mexico, the EBITDA fell 13% to $558 million, negatively affected by the Texas cold snap for around $61 million. In addition, there has been an increase in access fees of $21 million and gas costs that had not been passed to tariffs. In the UK, the EBITDA fell 39% to GBP 83 million due to higher energy procurements at higher wholesale prices added to higher demand and lower wind than forecasted. Brazil added BRL 468 million to the EBITDA, highlighting the better performance from our CCGT plant.

In the international business, EBITDA was -EUR 20 million, affected by cold snaps and development costs and lower growth due to COVID. EBIT was 19% up to EUR 4.8 billion. D&A was 2.6% up to EUR 3 billion, but excluding FX, it grew 7.2%, mainly due to the larger asset base and activity. Provisions were down 13.5% to EUR 320 million as a consequence of lower bad debt provisions related to COVID as collections are improving. Net financial expenses grew EUR 55 million to EUR 696 million as debt-related costs increased EUR 49 million.

The impact of the higher cost of debt was EUR 81 million, and this is basically due to the Brazilian inflation-linked debt, but it is more than offset at the EBITDA level by revenues indexed to inflation. Excluding Brazil, our cost of debt decreased 2.87%. That is partially compensated by a positive EUR 32 million from a lower average net debt due to our issuances of hybrids. Note that related costs increased by EUR 7 million, mainly linked to the negative impact of positive FX hedges in 2020, mostly compensated by positive one-offs in 2021, mainly the accrued interest from the Spanish levies and our mark-to-market of our share in Wallbox as a result of the IPO.

Iberdrola funding and balance sheet is well positioned for a possible rise in inflation as we have a prudent policy approach in our funding. Our debt is 68% fixed. As you can see in the slide, we have a fixed debt structure higher than our fixed revenue structure, thus having a balance sheet well positioned in a possible rise in inflation and interest rates. Our average life of debt is over 6 years, but we have also EUR 3.5 billion forward start swaps that will cover part of our debt needs in the future. The only exception is our debt in Brazil, which is inflation-linked, as our revenues are also linked to inflation in Brazil. Including EUR 7.5 billion in hybrids, fixed funding goes up to 73%.

Our reported credit metrics improved due to, first, the adjusted net debt decrease of EUR 6,664 million to EUR 37 billion, despite the investment effort, thanks to the hybrid issues. Second, our improvement of our FFO, and as, that in our twelve months grew 4.7% to EUR 8.7 billion. As a consequence, our adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA fell to 3.4 times. Our FFO adjusted net debt improved 1.4 percentage points to 23.4%. Retained cash flow over net debt improved to 20.8%, and our leverage ratio strengthened to 41.7%. Adjusted net profit grew 5.2% to EUR 2,688 million, compared to last year's adjusted net profit of EUR 2,554 million.

Adjusted net profit excludes extraordinary impacts, including COI, Spanish levy, reversals, and non-recurring items, but not FX impact, as we consider FX as part of the risk that brings being a global player. Reported net profit was EUR 2,408 million, down 10.2% due to the accounting of the UK corporate tax. In the annex, you will find also the Iberdrola interim dividend calendar. Thank you. The Chairman will conclude the presentation.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Thank you, Pepe. You have seen over the first nine months, the group has shown a strong operational performance in a very complex environment. We expect to accelerate this trend in the next three months, thanks to additional renewable capacity in lower geographies, together with the full year contribution of new projects. In Networks, we will benefit from higher revenues due to the new rate case in U.S., tariff increase, and the consolidation of Neoenergia Brasília in Brazil, and the transmission project across different geographies. Subject to deeper analysis, we also expect now the regulatory context returns to normality in Spain after the measure approved yesterday by the government. Finally, we will maintain our financial strength thanks to our active debt management.

All these factors drive us to reaffirm the net profit and dividend outlook already provided to you for 2021, showing once again our commitment to value creation for 300,000 shareholders. To the generation of wealth, jobs, and sustainable development to our stakeholders in all our communities. For our customers, this means providing them competitive and clean energy as well as an excellent service. As mentioned, only in Spain, our fixed prices are saving almost EUR 2 billion to our customers, protecting them against current spot market prices. Our model is also allowing us to create sustainable jobs with the best-in-class labor condition. Since the beginning of the year, we have had 5,000 new hires. 99% of our labor contracts are permanent, and we provide more than 50 hours of training per employee, clearly above our European average.

On top of that, we have leading practice to facilitate work-life balance and promote diversity and inclusion. Our Escola de Eletricistas, or School of Electricians, for women in Brazil were a clear example. This pioneering initiative is an excellent way for women to access job in the utility industry, traditionally good mostly for men. Finally, we are proud of our international corporate volunteer program with more than 10,000 participants worldwide. Our supply chains also benefiting from purchases worth EUR 9 billion in just 9 months, for a total of EUR 22 billion awarded since the beginning of 2020, giving our suppliers the security required to preserve jobs, a new business opportunity to grow and expand internationally. Finally, our green investment are also driving a more sustainable future.

Achieving more decarbonization and air quality with just 50 grams of CO2 per kWh in Europe versus more than 300 grams our peers. EUR 7.5 billion of tax contribution last year, which approximately EUR 3.4 billion correspond to Spain. More than EUR 300 million invested in research development every year to reduce even more our carbon footprint and improve customer service. With the support of a startup like the electric charging company, Wallbox, which as you know, is now listed in New York Stock Exchange. We are also leading programs aimed to training and employment people for new occupations in sectors of the future, like Reskilling for Employment, which involves 50,000 jobs in Spain in the first phase. These are just some examples of the benefits created by our model based on strong values and firm belief of social market economy.

Thank you very much for your attention. Now we are ready to answer your questions you may have.

Operator

Thank you, Chairman. Before starting with the Q&A session, as I mentioned earlier, our commitment is that the presentation will not take more than 1 hour today. Today is a day with a large number of companies presenting results and taking into consideration those who have to write about these results today. I think it is important to keep the 60 minutes commitment. We will try to address as many of the questions received as possible. If any are left out of the Q&A session, as always, we will be available to answer them from the AR department, and thank you for your understanding. Moving to the Q&A, the first is coming from Javier Garrido, JP Morgan, Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley, and Harry Wyburd, Bank of America.

It's the following: May we ask how Iberdrola considers the full year dividend at this stage, given interim paid flat year over year and earnings impact from gas clawback taxes less than feared?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Sorry. I think in the first nine months, results are progressing as expected. Operating performance, as you see, continues to be good. We have accelerated investment in capacity additions. We have new rate cases in New York, an additional growth as well in transmission. We have already improved our financial strength. What we expect in the next months is a certain higher renewable operating capacity, so we expect 4,000 MW in the whole 2021. Recovery, as well, of the wind results, I think it's not normal in the U.K. that the wind result has been the least for the last 30 years. We expect that things are coming to normality. Also better performance in our business in United States and Brazil to continue in this line.

On top of this, as we have already said, the regulatory outlook, I think, is improving, especially in Spain. We have already, just as I mentioned, clarifying the previous royal decree. I think thanks to all those things, that is what I was mentioning in my speech, we are reaffirming our net profit outlook already provided by 2021. If you remember, it was in the range EUR 3.7 billion-EUR 3.8 billion, and EUR 0.44 per share dividend for this year. Those are our expectations.

Operator

Second question comes from Javier Garrido, JP Morgan, and Ahmed Farman from Jefferies. It is the following: Now that we have seen the Spanish government amendment to the gas clawback, do you see any reason why you should not deliver your target net income of EUR 4 billion-EUR 4.2 billion in 2022?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Well, I think we are now in the process of making our budget for next year. I will give you some update of that one. I think in this moment, we are already. Everybody's preparing the data and certain, I think. Our ambition is, as always, to fulfill what we has already been saying to the markets in our investor day. I think now is, we are already in the process of making all those things, and we will have already the first data, I think, for being approved by the board by December. I think I cannot already give anything. Apart in the, our goal is to keep already our promises as always we did.

Operator

Third question comes from a long list of analysts. First, Manuel Palomo, Exane BNP Paribas, Javier Suárez, Mediobanca, Alberto Gandolfi, Goldman Sachs, Harry Wyburd, Bank of America, Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona, UBS, José Javier Ruiz, Barclays, and finally, James Brand, Deutsche Bank, and Jorge Alonso, SocGen. What is the expected quarterly impact from the gas clawback after yesterday's announcement from the Spanish government making the PPA contract at fixed price exempt from the gas clawback?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

As you mentioned yesterday, the government approved a new Royal Decree-Law clarifying the energy negotiated under bilateral contract at fixed prices will not link it to the spot market, will be excluded from the gas clawback. I think we are already, as you can imagine, it was published yesterday. We are now analyzing in detail these new measures approved, which represent certain improvement in the situation created, reducing the negative effect than that had already initially estimated. In Spain, the issue of power prices, as I was already commenting, is affecting 10 million customers on regulated tariff. Regulated tariff is only those which are already less than 10 kW of installed power in their homes.

That represent only, I think these low consumers represent around 10% of the total electricity demand. Those ones are already the only ones which are involuntary because it's not voluntary. I think they are already in this one. They can already make the choice to move to liberalized, but those ones have not really moved are those ones which are already affected by this volatility of the spot prices. That's new regulatory decision. I think we've been saying for a long, long time that we are the only country with those ones which are the low energy consumers are already affected by volatility. I think countries around ourselves, Portugal. Portugal, we have the same already wholesale market, and they are not affected to such a volatility. Not France, not Italy.

Which I think we are the only one. But I think it's important to know that this volatility is affecting and these high prices, mostly to those customers which represent 10% of the electricity, which are 10 million, but is not a huge amount of electricity. Industries, business, public institution, and all the remaining residential, either for more than 10 kW installed power or those which are already on the regulated, and they are allowed, and they have already decided to move to liberalized, are all those in the free market, give them the capacity to protect themselves through bilateral agreement at stable prices. That is the case of Iberdrola. We have all our clean available production sold through contract with fixed prices.

We have been maintaining this tariff so far for our liberalized customers, which, as an industry, business, public institution, and remaining residential, which are already in our liberalized tariffs. We have already maintained this tariff, who have already benefited from saving almost EUR 2 billion toward those ones with, if instead of being with us, will be already on the buying from the spot market. I think in this context, I think our result has been affected, as I mentioned, because in some cases we have been forced to buy electricity on the market because we have not enough production. I think what our clean electricity is already an expectation.

Not always we produce what we are expecting, and what we are not already producing we are expecting, we are forced to buy. That is what is happening in Britain, and it's happening in Spain as well, which is affecting to our result of liberalized business.

Operator

Fourth question comes from Andrew Moulder, Credit Suisse, and Stefano Vecchio, Credit Suisse. The September 14th decree included the introduction of separate auction for the nuclear and hydro output. Does this provision remain in place after yesterday's announcement? If yes, what kind of impact do you expect?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I'm not already seeing. I don't think then that is going to be affected. I think that was already something which is going to be corrected. I think if the electricity is already sold, I don't know where it's going to be already, it's going to come from. I don't think that is going to be already made.

Operator

Next question comes from Manuel Palomo at Exane BNP. Could you share your views about the gas clawback law in Spain? When do you expect it to be discussed, approved by the Parliament, and when it could start being implemented?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think the recent communication from the European Commission rethinks the view on the success of ETS. I think in fact I was already participating a few weeks ago in a meeting with high-level people in the European Commission, the president and vice president and others. Since the ETS was already approved, and that were the words, greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by 35%, while GDP has increased by more than 40%. I think it's a great success. GDP increases even with the measures taken to decrease the emission. It means that is a clear success of ETS. Additionally, the ETS considers certain mechanisms to reduce the impact of big fluctuations in prices.

I think it's not needed any regulation that may interfere with the system as it works properly. I think if the European Commission considers that the carbon prices are not the most convenient, they have already the Market Stability Reserve, the MSR, which I think they can already use that one for increasing the number of rights in the market or reducing the number of carbon rights in the market. I think if they're not intervening, it's because they are considering that it's working properly. I think in any case, this law I was saying is already a bit of a contradiction. I think all the principles of the European Commission are based on the polluter pays principle.

I think it has not much sense that those ones not polluting paying as well or even more, which I think they have to clarify the position. I think it looks that the European Commission is clear on this point. Nevertheless, this law now is in the period of amendment, and I think we will see what is going to happen finally. Nevertheless, I think it's clear that what the European Commission says in this, in this communication, and I'm sure it is going to be taken into consideration in all these amendments of the law.

Operator

Next question comes from Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona, UBS, and Stefano Vecchio, Credit Suisse. Can you give an update on the hedging prices in Spain for 2022 and 2023?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Paco, can you reply this one?

Francisco Martínez Córcoles
Business CEO, Iberdrola

Yes. Thank you. In our previous results conference call in July, I think we informed you about the hedging level for 2021 that was fully sold was about high 70s, 75, 78, something like that. I can tell you that for 2022 and 2023, the prices of hedging are completely in line with these levels, which is less than half of the spot prices.

Operator

Next question comes from Jorge Guimarães, JB Capital. How is evolving the liberalized margin of Iberdrola in Spain? Is the company being able to pass on to clients higher costs outside gas clawback?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Margin. I think overall the thing is was very clear. I think we had already a situation which was already very strange. Now it's already clarified, and I think it's certain if there are some inputs in our for something that we is not already was not contemplated when we make already our offers, our contracts. We were forced to modify these terms. Now it's clarified, and I insist on that one. I think we have already solved all our available energy, clean energy is already sold forward. I think if there are any new charges or whatever, we have to revise all those terms.

Nevertheless, I would like to insist that thanks to our fixed prices agreed with our customers, with our more than close to 7 million customers, they are benefiting in this environment of high spot market prices of around EUR 2 billion. Thanks all those ones. That is our position on this in this sense.

Operator

Question number nine from Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley; Ahmed Farman, Jefferies; and Jorge Alonso, Société Générale. What is the latest view on supply chain's inflation and the impact for Iberdrola renewables expansion? Sorry, my microphone was out. I'm going to repeat. From Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley; Ahmed Farman, Jefferies; and Jorge Alonso, Société Générale. Question number nine, what is the latest view on supply chain's inflation and the impact for Iberdrola renewables expansion?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I have mentioned in the presentation, we have mechanisms to protect us from inflation. 70% of our revenues come from high rating countries. Almost 100% of our production is already sold forward in the next year. I think with margins more or less already covered. All purchases for the rest, and that is important, for the rest of 2021 and 2022, our requirement is already hedged close up. Thanks to our business, I think 45% is margin protected from inflation because we are already regulated. Debt is already fixed at fixed rates.

That is what allow ourselves to be confident not only for this year in our results, but as well confident in our projection for next year. I think we are continue committed to deliver next year what we have already promised, which is EUR 4.2 billion or EUR 4.1 billion or EUR 4 billion next year net profit. I think because all those thing is already we have already protected or secure on this environment of potential increases in rate of interest, high inflation, high cost of component of materials.

Those things, and because we have already sold 96% of our electricity at the numbers, at the prices, with that already, yes, covering or guaranteeing the margin we were already making our plan. I think all together make us this confident to be absolutely not only confident for 2021, but confident for 2022 to deliver, the numbers that we were already given already in our projection, in our presentation.

Operator

Question number 11. Can you explain why Iberdrola decided not to participate in the latest renewable auction in Spain? It's from Javier Suárez, Mediobanca.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Well, you know, we are traditionally participating in many auctions in many countries. I think it is, we are already permanently looking what is the risk and return in each of those ones. I think, as I mentioned, we have already secured in the last few weeks already an offshore new offshore wind farm in Germany, Windanker, with 380 MW portfolio, which is almost EUR 100 million investment. I think we have already placed bids in Massachusetts, which is 1,200 MW, which can be already an investment in the range of $3 billion. We already participate in ScotWind's event and auction in the U.K.

I think we will continue participating in auctions in United Kingdom in the fourth round. In Denmark, I mentioned already with TotalEnergies. In Netherlands, we have also something. In France, we are in Normandy, South County, Rhode Island, New York, in very many of those ones. I think it's, in this moment, 82% of our planned renewable capacity for 2025 is already installed under construction, ready to build. This new platform give us visibility for the second part of the decade or even for the next year, guaranteeing the sustainability of our model. I think in most cases, the returns we are expecting are in the range of 200 basis points.

In the case of Spain, participating, not participating are decisions that we are taking depending on what we are expecting in every moment. I think if we expect that we can obtain better returns in other places, we invest in other places. In particular in the case of Spain, as you know, we are short in electricity. We are selling more electricity than what we're producing. We are forced to buy. That's why I think we are interested in investing. The fact last year we built more renewables than almost the three or four competitors together. This year, in this moment, we are 1,500-1,600 in construction, and that will be built. But those ones we are building are not already.

Most of them for auction is already made for being already sold through our market. Which I think is full normality. I think we participate in those one we consider they are more attractive. We are not participate the one we consider are less attractive. In the particular case of Spain, we are already very many in construction, and we are already opportunity for making that one without being forced to make those one through auction because we can sell directly to the final customer without needing to go to auction on that one. I think we have nothing against. We sometimes go, sometimes we are not going. Normality.

Operator

Next question comes from Javier Suárez, Mediobanca, Javier Garrido, JP Morgan, and Harry Wybor, Bank of America. Can you please update on the possible spin-off of your offshore wind subsidiary?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think we are continuing to take some steps. I think the separation from CIP in the United States, I think that helped us with the security. We have already decided to make a quick decision on that one. We have already some certainty, and offshore is a growing business, which I think we are already diversifying in new geographies, and I think we require huge investment in this one, which I think that's why we are already studying all the consequences and implications from all angles to make this one financing, corporate, etc. I think we are already moving, and continuing to take a step. If we decide, we can make things easier if we decide to go ahead with this one in the future.

Operator

Question number fourteen. It's from Rob Pulleyn, Morgan Stanley. We see EUR 170 million EBITDA from asset rotation in nine months. May we ask whether meaningful asset rotation gains will be part of ongoing earnings? And if so, how much?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

I think, I don't know if Pepe has already commented, but if not, I comment now. In last March, we have already signed some framework agreement with, in case of Spain, with MAPFRE, to co-invest in renewable projects, in Spain, focusing mostly in PV and wind onshore, with a target of almost 1,000 MW in the first phase. Also, we have already, as well, as part of this asset rotation strategy, we have already signed as well an alliance with a company, which is Prosolia, to develop 1.3 GW of solar PV in Spain and Portugal as well. What that provide?

This provide additional platforms for renewable growth that allow us to reestablish the value of our portfolio in some cases and increase revenues thanks to our experience in operating and maintenance of clean facilities. I think I give you this example, but I can already provide you very many. I think it's something what I mentioned already, joint venture with Total and with another. I think is a part of what we did in East Anglia in U.K. I think is already as part of how to use our capabilities, how we can really maximize the value of our asset, how we maximize our skill, knowledge, and by line.

Operator

Next question comes from Javier Suarez, Mediobanca, number sixteen. Can you explain the management changes announced today?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Well, I was planning to make a speech of that one, if you don't mind. That is the last question or not?

Operator

Previous to one in Spanish that we have.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

In that case, if you don't mind, put that. Well, okay, I will that one. I think it's. Yesterday, the board of directors has already approved certain things following my proposal. The first one is that Ignacio Moreno Martínez was named as chairman of the board of directors. Ignacio Moreno Martínez is on our board since 2018. As well, the board approved the nomination of Ángeles Alcalá, who has been up to now a member of the board of Iberdrola España, and now she is going to join the Iberdrola board. Also, yesterday, Samantha Barber, who is one of our members of the board, had decided to leave the board because she is already taking on other responsibilities in other places. Also, in terms of management, we are announcing certain changes.

Paco Martínez Córcoles, the Business CEO, which is here with us, is retiring after 35 years in Iberdrola. He has always been by my side in the last 20 years, so I think I would like to use this opportunity to recognize his magnificent work and his loyalty to this project, which I think I hope he's going to continue in the board, and I hope he can continue helping to me, it's from the board in this commitment, this proposal. Following my proposal, and with a positive report from nomination committee of the board, the board has already decided the nomination of Armando Martínez as new Business General Director. Armando has been in the group for 20 years in different roles.

Latest one is Director of Global Networks. Before he was already in Liberalized, he was in Mexico, he was engineering. He has already passing through the different responsibilities in Spain and globally in outside of Spain as well. For replacing Armando Martínez in his role of Director of Global Networks Business, we have already nominated Elena León, that she was up to now Director of Planning, Management, and Regulatory Position. I think my point of that is that we have already total the changes that provide total continuity of the project because all of them are already been in the group for many years, has been working very close with Paco, and I'm sure that he's going to follow his track without very many changes. Last question.

Operator

The last question is in Spanish, and it's from Manuel Palomo at Exane BNP Paribas, Marie Fariba, and Jorge Alonso, Société Générale. Could we review the potential of freezing of investments in Spain as a result of the regulatory uncertainty?

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Well, I think that we haven't changed our prospects in Spain because we are a global company that is present in dozens of countries, and we permanently have to focus investments on those companies that offer the best opportunities. It goes without saying that what I believe is that these measures did concern our investors and we had the obligation, and we must revise the situation. We've never stopped investing in Spain, and as I pointed out before, in the last nine months, we have increased our investments by more than 20%. I think that it's the country where we've had the biggest figure, about EUR 1.6 billion in this period. But what you also know, and this is something that I've repeated many times in the past, that we've always asked for stability and predictability.

What we want to have is a very clear-cut policy so that we can carry out the investment plans that have been put in place by us. I think that with this new clarification, I think that the situation is much clearer than what we had before. Therefore, the plans are not gonna be modified, and we're going to continue along the same lines, which on the other hand, I have to repeat this, we haven't changed anything. In the first months, we've invested EUR 1.6 million. That is another 20% more than in the previous year in the same period. Now we have many thousands of megawatts under construction, and we have a tremendously extensive pipeline so that we can continue along the same lines.

As regards our investors, I would also like to tell our suppliers that in the case of Spain, I believe that we have made purchases in the last 12 months or 18 months of the pandemic totaling about EUR 6 billion. They have not at all been affected by this situation, but many of them don't only supply to Spain, but they also supply many of the teams we have abroad. I always give the example of the offshore platforms. Well, who was going to think that Navantia together with Windar was gonna be one of our biggest suppliers for the offshore platforms that we are building for our offshore wind farms, for instance. Or that the offshore substations are also being manufactured in Spain, and in this case, in a place called Puerto Real in Cádiz.

These are the examples, and I'm not going to mention Basque suppliers like Ormazabal or like others. We have a very large number of purchases with them, and nothing has been canceled.

Paco?

Francisco Martínez Córcoles
Business CEO, Iberdrola

No, Chairman, if I may, I'll also make my comments in Spanish. I would just like to thank all the investment community, the analysts and everybody that follows us during these results presentations. As I said yesterday to the board and the management team, I'm happy and delighted to have been in my job for all these years, but time rolls on. All I can say, as I said yesterday, is to thank everyone for the enormous support that I have received. This is a magnificent company. I ask you to continue to believe in it, as of course you will. It will continue to provide fruitful results. Continue to invest in it, and thank you very much.

Operator

The advantage of online communication is that it's possible to clarify doubts or misunderstanding live. We are asked, in this moment, if we can comment again on the expectation on dividend per share, full year dividend per share and the guidance 2022, because it's not as really clear.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

So-

Operator

for the market

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Dividend for this year, very simple. Dividend for the year is the outlook was 0.44, and we maintain the outlook 0.44. Second, with respect to 2022, our expectation is to already deliver what has already been planned in our Investor Day, which is EUR 4.2 billion, I think.

José Sáinz Armada
CFO, Iberdrola

4.4.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

4.4. I don't remember the number.

José Sáinz Armada
CFO, Iberdrola

42.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Exactly the same numbers that we

José Sáinz Armada
CFO, Iberdrola

Four to four point two.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Four?

Four to four point four.

I think I-

José Sáinz Armada
CFO, Iberdrola

2.

Francisco Martínez Córcoles
Business CEO, Iberdrola

Four point-

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

4.4 to 0.4. Sorry in the numbers. I'm not really right. Pepe?

Four to four point two.

EUR 4 billion-EUR 4.2 billion for 2022. We maintain absolutely our outlook. Nothing has changed on that one. For this year is EUR 0.44. For next year is EUR 4 billion-EUR 4.2 billion. Clear, Ignacio?

Operator

Yeah, it's clear. I think so. If not, feel free to call Investor Relations. Finally, please let me give the floor to Mr. Galán to conclude the event.

Ignacio Galán
Chairman and CEO, Iberdrola

Thank you very much for taking part in this conference call. As always, Investor Relations team will be available for any information you may require. But basically, this year is EUR 0.44, next year is EUR 4 billion-EUR 4.2 billion. I think you don't need to clarify that one, Ignacio Galán. Thank you. Thank you, all of you. Thank you.

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