Redeia Corporación, S.A. (BME:RED)
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Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 27, 2022

Speaker 4

Morning, ladies and gentlemen. We are now ready to begin our presentation for the results for the first half of the year. We'd like to welcome all of you following us on the telephone and on the website. Today, we're joined by the CEO, Roberto García Merino, and by Emilio Cerezo, our CFO. I'd like to give the floor, first of all, to our CEO.

Thank you very much, Sol, and hello to everyone. First of all, I'd like to share with you the content of today's presentation. I'll start by talking about the company's new brand, which was presented at the last annual general meeting, and which encompasses all the group's different companies. I'll also be discussing the global environment and the highlights of the first half of 2022 for Redeia. The CFO will then flesh out the results for the six-month period, and finally, we'll close this presentation, giving you an outlook for 2022 and reviewing the objectives of the 2021-2025 strategy plan. Additionally, please note that at the end of the presentation, we'll also have time to respond to a round of questions which you may wish to ask us. Let me begin today's presentation by sharing with you the group's new brand, Redeia.

It was presented at the last annual general meeting. In a complex environment such as the one we're currently experiencing, it's clear to Redeia that the only way forward is to respond with determination and agility without deviating from the mission that gives meaning to our group, to promote a sustainable, connected, prosperous, equitable, and cohesive future. As a global operator of essential electricity and telecommunications infrastructures, we're an active agent of this change that is already underway, a role we take on with a deep sense of responsibility. Being firmly determined to pursue this mission, we're moving forward under our new brand. The company, thus, is renewing itself in order to make further progress, and we do so under the name Redeia, the brand that will drive our journey in the coming years.

With Redeia, we are clearly and unambiguously defining who we are, communicating what a sound and diversified group we are, a benchmark in the power and telecommunication sectors, an international group with a high profile in Spain and Latin America, firmly committed to progress. A group that, after successfully completing its corporatization process, is moving forward based on the strength of its five main companies, Red Eléctrica, the Spanish TSO, Redinter, which is performing our international business in LATAM, Reintel, which manages our dark fiber business, Hispasat, one of the main worldwide satellite operators, and Elewit, which has now been providing its innovation capacity both inside and outside the company for three years.

This new brand reinforces our cohesion as a group and with our various businesses, separate and distinct, but aligned with our process, which we developed through responsible and ethical leadership in each of the areas in which we operate. Now that we've presented this change of corporate image, we'll briefly comment on the current global environment, an environment that undoubtedly affects the group's performance. The global scenario we're living through could be described as difficult, with high financial stress and economic slowdown as a major fear following the escalation of geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices, drastic monetary tightening, and the scenario of high inflation that envelops us. Nonetheless, we do believe that this new paradigm presents opportunities that can't be ignored.

The ecological transition is one of the main drivers for the European Union's broad transformation program, and it's the cornerstone of the response required to emerge from this difficult situation. The wheels have already been set in motion at EU level, and member states have announced various measures to mitigate the impact. Thus, the new energy policy, embodied in the European Commission's REPowerEU plan, provides the guidelines for temporary measures to mitigate the impact of the energy crisis and defines lines of action to increase the EU's energy security by promoting decarbonization and eliminating dependence on natural gas from Russia. This plan, therefore, marks a turning point in EU energy policy towards better interconnection between European member states and greater energy independence. Spain, in turn, has adopted an array of solutions to contain the rising prices in the electricity and gas sectors.

These temporary measures are set out in various Royal Decrees enacted in 2021, which have been continued in 2022, with further Royal Decrees adopting additional initiatives, such as the new production cost adjustment mechanism to reduce the price of electricity on the wholesale market, and at the same time, extending other measures until the end of 2022, such as reducing the electricity tax to 0.5%, suspending the 7% tax on electricity generation, and reducing VAT from 10% to 5%. These initiatives also include the definition of a new mechanism for financing the social bond, which will be funded by all agents participating in the electricity supply chain on the basis of their turnover, including Red Eléctrica.

However, for companies with regulated tariffs that are required to finance this social bond, as is the case with Red Eléctrica, the regulation states that the cost will be recognized as such when calculating the company's corresponding remuneration. Having discussed the rather delicate situation we are in, we now turn to the highlights of the first half of the year. During the first months of this year, we've seen significant advances in the targets presented in our strategy plan that allow us to advance with optimism in the fulfillment of the plan.

The most important milestone that's been met during the period has been the approval of the transmission network plan for the period 2021 to 2026, which, as you all know, underpins the National Energy and Climate Plan, which runs until 2030, as well as the European energy policy, meeting its clear guidelines, integration of renewables, interconnection of systems, and electrification of the economy. Around 90% of the planning investments directly address needs associated with the decarbonization of the economy. The remaining 11% is for operational requirements, transmission grid upgrades, connecting generation and storage, and internal improvements associated with international interconnections. All this becomes the driving force for achieving the energy transition, ensuring the group's investments in the coming years have a visible impact.

Another relevant milestone for the fulfillment of our strategy plan has been the conclusion of the sale of 49% of Reintel after obtaining the pertinent permits. This has underlined the value of our fiber optic assets, as well as strengthening our balance sheet so that we can meet the ambitious investment plan we have for the coming years. It also enables us to further develop the Reintel business, thus highlighting its potential for generating value. Also, at group level, we delivered robust first half results with net profit up by 1.4% against the same period of the previous year. The group's investments reached EUR 273 million, increasing investment in the TSO by more than 10% year-on-year.

The final dividend was paid out against the 2021 results, making a total of EUR 1 per share distributed to our shareholders, as confirmed in our objectives presented in the 2021-2025 plan. Furthermore, our commitment to sustainability continues to make progress as we move towards our climate change goals to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, taking on targets to reduce our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 55% and our Scope 3 emissions by 28% for 2030 as compared to the baseline in 2019. Achieving these emission reduction targets is directly linked to our continued commitment to zero deforestation in the performance of our own activities and those of our supply chain. Thus, the company has set a net positive impact target for natural capital in the area around its facilities for 2030.

Thus, Redeia is committed to compensating all the trees eliminated in the surroundings of our facilities in order to comply with safety criteria, going beyond our previous commitment to compensate 50% of the felling of native vegetation. We're also working under an integrity due diligence model regarding third parties, which allows us to assess the risks to which the group is exposed in order to mitigate them through the establishment of appropriate control measures. This model provides the necessary tools to ensure that the group's relations with third parties are governed by integrity and transparency, which are key to maintaining Redeia's trusted reputation among stakeholders. On the financial side of things, Redeia has a Green Finance Framework which has been adapted to the taxonomy of the European Union.

It's enabled us to replace the concept of projects with that of assets, with all Red Eléctrica's assets being eligible when considering that its activity as TSO complies with the technical environmental criteria and minimum safeguards required by the European Union. As a result of its ongoing efforts, Redeia has recently obtained an excellent ESG rating from Standard & Poor's, which scored the group at 82 points out of a maximum of 100, highlighting that Redeia is robustly equipped to take on future risks and opportunities with sustainability due to its role as a facilitator of the decarbonization of the whole energy sector. The agency commends the group's efforts to protect biodiversity and its talent management with a highly committed and diverse workforce. This sustainability effort is embodied in our national and international regulated activities as we carry out our electricity transmission projects.

At the national level, Red Eléctrica continues progressing on significant projects such as the commissioning of the undersea link between Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, and the commissioning of the Torrent substation on the Ibiza-Formentera link. In June, the last phase of the government-managed process began for the future electricity interconnection between Spain and France via the Bay of Biscay. With this step, the second public information period for the project begins in Spain, seeking the best technical, social, and environmental solution as stemming from the agreement. We also continue to successfully implement the special maintenance plan, which, as you know, involves maintaining critical assets ahead of schedule in order to reduce risks and increase the security of supply. This plan will last two years and will cost more than EUR 80 million.

Finally, in this area, it's worth mentioning the publication of the draft remuneration methodology for the Chira-Soria pumping station, the first major energy storage system in the Canary Islands. This includes remuneration for work in progress, a particularly important factor, as the company has always argued in favor of the need to remunerate ongoing work, especially when investment periods are becoming increasingly longer and more complicated. In the international area, we highlight the acquisition of Rialma III in Brazil at the beginning of the year. As you know, the company is the concession operator of a 322-km, 500-kV transmission line already in operation in eastern Brazil. This deal was carried out through the Brazilian company Argo Energia, in which the RE group holds a 50% stake. It's already been integrated into Argo's operations.

In addition, we highlight the sound progress on the ongoing projects we have in Peru and Chile, which we'll give you more detail on later. Our telecommunications businesses continue to support the company's growth, playing an important role in ensuring connectivity and access to telecommunications services. In this six-month period, and after that sale I just told you about of 49% of Reintel, new prospects have arisen for the company in its future after the incorporation of KKR as a shareholder. This will facilitate the achievement of the targets set for the company and provides it with greater synergies in the dynamic Spanish market for the transmission of communications over fiber optics. The strong performance of this activity during the first six months of the year is also noteworthy, underpinned by the inflation index nature of its contracts.

As for our satellite subsidiary, Hispasat, we can highlight the imminent completion of the process to acquire 100% of Axess Networks after obtaining due regulatory authorizations and fulfilling other conditions precedent. Axess is a telecommunications company specializing in satellite services and solutions for the corporate market and government administrations operating in Latin America and EMER. This purchase is part of the investment plan and actions defined in Redeia's strategy plan for the satellite business, aimed at making Hispasat a provider of satellite solutions and services in its target markets, involving Hispasat working more intensively in the managed services value chain, providing customer proximity, adaptability, and the rapid evolution of its service offering. We are also promoting a project to bring satellite internet at a speed of 100 Mbps to 100% of the general public in Spain.

Hispasat manages the wholesale service, so we've already signed agreements with a large number of distributors for them to sell the service to the end user. In addition, during the six-month period, we've initiated the deployment of several projects related to rural connectivity in Latin America, such as the agreement reached to roll out 324 digital centers in Colombia using Amazonas 5 Ka-band and the agreement reached in Brazil to develop a school connectivity project in the country. We've also established several capacity leasing agreements with leading operators in the maritime sector, in particular for connecting cruise ships in the Caribbean and the Mediterranean. Now we'll discuss the results achieved during the first half of 2022. First, we turn to the performance of the main figures for the first half of the year, which continue to be positive despite the difficult environment we're facing.

In this sense, look at the growth both in EBITDA and the net profit compared to the same period last year, the strong reduction in net financial debt, and, above all, the increase in TSO investment, where we've focused all our efforts on the company. Redeia's net profit grew by 1.4% in the year, driven by the positive results generated from our diversification businesses, mainly the positive contribution of Argo in Brazil. Additionally, financial expenses were lower throughout the period. The group's investments amounted to EUR 273 million.

That's an 8.2% increase in line with the investments established in the strategy plan for this financial year, with significant investment being made in the Spanish transmission network, up almost 11% against the first half of the previous year as a result of the implementation of several investment acceleration initiatives that are already underway. Net financial debt reached EUR 4.375 billion, with a significant reduction of EUR 1.273 billion compared to the first half of 2021. This reduction is mainly due to the EUR 995 million collected from the sale of the Reintel stake.

It's been a good first semester, marked especially by the first effects of the investment acceleration plans that will be consolidated throughout the year and by the strengthening of Redeia's financial capacity after closing the sale of 49% of Reintel. I now give the floor to Emilio Cerezo, who will analyze these results in greater detail.

Speaker 5

Thank you very much, Roberto. Let's look at the key financial highlights. You've heard already from the CEO, and I'd like to turn now, of course, to our profit and loss account. First of all, revenues for the period amounted to EUR 1.03 billion. That's an increase of 4% with a positive contribution made from all businesses, but especially those businesses related to diversification. The EBITDA increase was the result of the healthy turnover already mentioned, offset in part by higher operating expenses, as the special maintenance plan for critical assets progresses as planned in order to endow the network with greater security and reliability.

There was also an increase in personnel expenses associated with the incorporation in Hispasat of the Peruvian businesses in the middle of the previous year. EBIT recorded a 0.7% decline due to increased amortization depreciation in the regulated businesses and also a result of our satellite business. Our financial loss amounted to EUR 44 million, EUR 5 million better than in the first half of 2021 due to two different factors. On the one hand, there was a reduction in the average interest rate, 1.6% compared to the 1.53%, in fiscal 2021.

On the other hand, it was also due to a lower average gross financial debt balance, which fell from EUR 6.79 billion - EUR 6.43 billion approximately in the same period of this year. Net profit amounted to EUR 363 million. That's 1.4% up on the figure recorded last year. If we now analyze how business lines have performed, in terms of revenues, and one highlight is the contribution of the diversification businesses. Strong organic and inorganic performance of those businesses have allowed Redeia to contribute EUR 34 million of the EUR 39 million increase in the group's revenues.

The revenues from the international business rose by EUR 20 million linked to the following aspects: increased activity in Chile, Peru, and Brazil with the commissioning of certain assets, Argo II and Argo III, for example. The updating of regulatory parameters in Brazil. Finally, the favorable effect of exchange rates, and that's the Brazilian real and the US dollar rates. The telecommunications business also contributes to the strong revenue performance. Indeed, the satellite business grew by EUR 10.5 million. Now, that was driven mainly by higher sales and also the full half year effect of the acquisitions completed in the previous year in Peru and the favorable trend in the exchange rates, Brazilian real and US dollar, as I mentioned before.

The revenues from our fiber optic business also increased due to the positive effect of the inflation index nature of some contracts. EBIT rose by EUR 13.3 million. That's 1.7% up compared to the previous year in the first half of this year. Firstly, due to the EUR 39 million increase in revenues I mentioned earlier, and secondly, because of operating expenses of EUR 27 million. That's 10.9% up compared to the previous year. For a proper understanding of how these operating expenses have been performing, the increase should be broken down into non-comparable and like-for-like expenses.

The non-comparable operating expenses have increased by EUR 90.7 million and stem from the previously announced rollout of that critical asset maintenance plan and other expenses associated with the new business lines, mainly the new Hispasat satellite business in Peru, which has been consolidated since May 2021. Now, like-for-like operating expenses for the year increased by only 2.1% despite the high inflationary environment we're operating in. Now, this is mainly due to the proactive measures that were taken in previous years to sign medium-term contracts with suppliers, as well as our ongoing search for efficiency in all of our activities. Now, in this slide, you can see Redeia's revenues and EBITDA broken down by businesses.

The positive evolution of international EBIT, up 61%, and of the satellite business, up nearly 7%, was the outcome of those factors I described to you just a moment ago as regards the weight of revenues and EBIT-EBITDA by business compared to the total. As you can see on the slide, income from diversification activities have slightly increased in weight compared to the previous year. Turning now to total investments made during the period, let me highlight the fact that there has been an 8.2% increase in the first half of the year, driven by significant progress in domestic and international projects. The TSO's investment was almost 11% higher than in the first half of the previous year.

The key milestones of the six-month period are as follows. The progress that we made in meshing projects and projects to improve the reliability and quality of the network, particularly in certain main lines, the Sabinal axis on the island of Gran Canaria and the East Madrid plan axis. In terms of interconnections, you can also highlight the following aspects: the commissioning of the link between Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, reinforcing the security of supply between those islands, the commissioning of the Torrent substation within the link between Ibiza and Formentera, which will enable this important infrastructure of the Balearic Islands to be commissioned by the end of 2023. Also, there's the Spain-North Portugal Interconnection, which has received a favorable environmental impact statement.

Now, that's a project that has been declared to be of common interest by the European Union, and it will enable annual savings estimated at EUR 22 million and a CO2 reduction of 150,000 tons per year by increasing the use and integration of renewable energies. Now, lastly, it should be noted that the last phase of the administrative process have began for the future electricity interconnection between Spain and France via the Bay of Biscay. Now, with this step, the second public information period for the project begins in Spain. The idea is to seek the best technical, social, and environmental solution stemming from the agreement.

In our international business, work is continuing to progress favorably on Tesur 4 in Peru, as well as on the construction of the Redenor and Redenor 2 assets in Chile, which are expected to be commissioned by the last quarter of the year. Hispasat is making progress with the construction of the new high-performance Amazonas Nexus satellite, which will allow access to new customers and markets and provide high-capacity mobility services in the air and maritime transport sectors, among others, as well as continuing to provide service to existing customers of the Amazonas 2 satellite, which it will replace. Our strong commitment to a net zero world guides our debt financing structure and is underpinned by the strong support from the investment community in our financing.

We already have more than 30% of our funding linked to ESG criteria, and we're continuing to work very hard to increase that percentage. Proof of that is the updating of our green framework, which we have aligned with the EU taxonomy throughout 2021, and we've also extended it out to all Redeia companies. Our roadmap is to continue to increase green financing with the issuance of new green bonds that will gradually replace ordinary bonds as they mature. The last one will be in 2027. At the same time, we'll also be linking the pricing of some financing to the group's overall ESG performance, and that will provide a strong incentive for continuous improvement in all three aspects of sustainability.

The average maturity of the debt is currently 5.3 years, with an average cost of 1.46%, compared to 1.53% in the same period last year. Now, as a result of all of that, we're continuing to maintain some attractive credit ratios, showing a strong improvement compared to last year. As of 30th of June 2022, we've reduced our net financial debt by EUR 1.27 billion. This significant reduction is mainly due to the proceeds from the sale of 49% of Reintel, which amounted to EUR 995 million, as well as the healthy performance of operating cash flow, which amounted to EUR 765 million.

Now, this performance of cash flow derives from two key aspects: the generation of FFO, EUR 621 million, that's a similar figure to last year's figure, and also healthy working capital, mainly a result of the high payments from the transmission tariff, as it continues to be considered a provisional tariff. However, I need to point out to you that these higher charges will be fed back into the system in coming quarters. Taking into account all of those points, the investments made and the dividends paid out, the net financial debt at the end of the first half of this year was EUR 4.37 billion. Let's focus now on the structure of our financial debt, which is characterized by diversification in financing sources.

85% of our financial debt is at a fixed rate until maturity, and there's a clear predominance of the euro compared to other currencies. Redeia will, over the next five years, be facing maturities of approximately EUR 3.5 billion. That amount is fully covered by our liquidity position, which is currently close to EUR 3.7 billion, and it's also been boosted by funds received from that sale I've talked about before, the 49% of Reintel. We anticipate additional financing needs as we increase our investment volumes with a high credit rating in order to meet these needs at a very competitive cost. Let me give the floor back again to our CEO, who will conclude this presentation.

Speaker 4

Thank you very much, Emilio. Well, to conclude this presentation, we'd now like to briefly outline our vision for 2022, as well as our financial objectives for 2025. As we've already mentioned on other occasions, 2022 is set to be the year of acceleration in the rollout of the company's strategy plan. With the plan already approved, our efforts are focused on a fast and efficient execution of its projects, taking decisive action on the ground, attempting to speed up the required approvals, and passing on the benefits to the community at large. Focusing on the coming months, in 2022, the investment in the TSO will amount to more than EUR 500 million, following the growing investment path that should lead to us meeting the strategic plan objectives.

Additionally, during the year, we expect the remuneration model for storage facilities in island systems, specifically Chira-Soria, following the proposed order, setting out the methodology for calculating the remuneration for this facility. This, in turn, will allow the development of new projects on the islands to favor the integration of renewable energy and increase the flexibility, efficiency, and security of the isolated system. Internationally, we will continue developing those transmission infrastructures in which the group is already positioned, with several assets to be commissioned by the year-end. Specifically, in Peru, we expect to complete the construction of Tesur 4, and in Chile, we envisage the completion of Redenor and Redenor 2. This increased activity will boost EBITDA growth from international business year-over-year.

The satellite business will continue to make steady progress on its new roadmap to become a managed service provider and thus an essential instrument in the fight against the digital divide. In this regard, investments of more than EUR 150 million and an EBITDA higher than in 2021 are planned. Finally, in the fiber optic and 5G businesses, investment continues to focus on upgrading the railway's fiber optic backbone and exploring new avenues for placing our electricity infrastructure at the service of 5G deployment in order to accelerate its rollout. EBITDA in this business is also expected to be better than in the previous year.

A relevant milestone in 2022 was the closing of the sale of 49% of Reintel, which has exceeded what we initially had in our strategy plan and which allows us to consolidate two of the most relevant aspects of Redeia's strategy plan, strengthening the financial capacity of the group to address the group's investment plan in the coming years, and secondly, improving profitability for our shareholders. Thus, the proceeds from the sale of 49% of Reintel will be used primarily to strengthen the balance sheet of Red Eléctrica de España, S.A., in order to take on the challenges of the energy transition. Likewise, as we already announced, shareholder remuneration has been improved by raising the dividend to be distributed from the 2023 fiscal year to EUR 1 per share.

This sale is part of the diversification strategy that Redeia has developed in recent years and has allowed Reintel's latent value to materialize within the group, highlighting its leadership in the Spanish dark fiber optic market. Finally, regarding our 2021 to 2025 targets, we continue to make progress on the objectives we established in our strategy plan, making progress in meeting our investment targets, reinforcing our financial capacity, and improving our dividend policy by extending the distribution of dividends of EUR 1 per share for another year. We'll now be covering the 2021 to 2023 period, maintaining the floor of 0.8 euros per share for the last two years of our plan, 2024 to 2025. That concludes today's presentation. Many thanks for your attention. After the presentation, both Emilio and I will be available to answer your questions.

The Q&A will now begin. If you wish to speak, please press zero one on your touchpad. If you wish to cancel that, then touch naught two. Jose Javier Ruiz from Barclays will start. Go ahead, please. Hello, good morning. I've just got one question. I'd like to know whether you're working with the government on measures to speed up the works that you have in your investment plan for getting licenses. Are you having any parallel discussions with respect to renewables permits? Well, Jose Javier, thank you very much for your question. Yes, not just Red Eléctrica is doing this, but all of the operators in the sector are very much involved in this challenge that we're facing, which is to get all the processing of licenses and permits in place before we move to the execution phase.

Speaker 5

We, of course, are working with the ministry, the government, and the CNMC. We're looking at trying to put forward improvements also with the autonomous regions. We would like to give them the benefit of our experience, our expertise, and our ideas to try and improve things and see if we can actually speed up this permitting process, which as you have rightly said, is one of the key challenges that we have to face to be able to deliver on those objectives of the plan. There is also the experience of other countries such as Germany, where I know that measures are being taken, and to change legislation with regard to permitting processes.

Perhaps in the shorter midterm here in Spain, it would be a good idea to also put in practice a measure like this to cut down these periods and move forward with the plans. Thank you very much. The next question is from Ignacio Doménech from JB Capital. Go ahead, please.

Hello. Good morning. I have three questions, actually. The first one is about that windfall tax on energy companies in Spain. What is your position on that? What is the position of transmission companies like Redeia? Will you be left out from the scope of this type of tax? The second question is about whether you can give us more details on Brazil. What will be the contribution made by Brazil by the end of the year? The last and third question that I have for you is about your positive working capital because of that transmission tariff that you talked about in the system. What would be the total impact given that they will have to revert it over coming quarters? What about your financial debt figure for the end of the year?

Thank you.

Right. Thank you, Ignacio, for your questions. If you wish, I'll answer the first two, and then Emilio will give you more color on our working capital and the estimated debt figures for the year-end. Okay, that windfall tax, I think you all know about it, but we all know that Redeia is a regulated company. We don't get any kinds of profits from the electricity business. We are the regulated core business, which is regulated in terms of all our installations and everything they do. So we don't get any benefit, any additional benefit, because of a higher price of energy or the energy flows that go through our transmission grid. So here we don't see the impact of this possible tax coming to us. It won't affect us. In Italy, if you look at Italy, I think the same would be true.

It's a matter of just looking at the essence of our business. It's a pure regulated business, and the price of energy and the volume of energy that comes through our grid doesn't affect the bottom line in any way. You ask about Argo. Our performance there in the Brazilian investment has been very positive. You saw that in the results for the first half year. We're expecting that over the year, the positive impact will be maintained with the assets we have there in Brazil. Moreover, I think Brazil in electricity transmission has a very sound, stable framework, a good environment, highly competitive. We are moving with two international investors, and we have a very positive idea about our investment in Brazil and its impact on our accounts.

Speaker 4

In the second half of the year, we do think the impact will be positive again and will be quite high in terms of the positive performance of the business towards the end of the year. I think we're expecting a significant impact on the growth of our international business throughout the second half of the year. Emilio... Thank you, Ignacio, for your question. Operating capital, working capital. We're benefiting from the fact that we continue to collect our transmission revenues on the basis of a temporary tariff, which needs to be regularized to date. At the end of the half year, the positive impact of this collection of this provisional tariff was about EUR 450 million. We do think that at the end of the year, or maybe the beginning of the following year, we'll see a regularization.

As the months go by, that EUR 450 million will increase, and in the end, we will probably have to return what we've collected. As time goes by, we could be talking about returning 500-something million EUR at the end of the year. Our net financial debt, we think that by the end of the year. Well, it would depend a bit on the amount that we have to get back into the system at the end of the year or the beginning of the next year, but it'll be about EUR 5 billion. In the second half of the year, in fact, in July, at the beginning of July, we already pay out the final dividend for the previous year, so that obviously has an impact on debt.

We've got about EUR 5 billion as a ballpark figure for our net financial debt at the year-end. Now, the following year, we think, and in the years after that, we've estimated in our strategy plan that there will be an increase of the net financial debt as our investments, above all in Spain's transmission grid.

Speaker 5

Come up to cruising speed and increase. Next question. Thank you very much. The next question comes from Fernando Lafuente from Alantra Equities. Go ahead, please.

Hello. I've got two questions. First of all, your international business, that's been important this half year. Your EBITDA is nearly EUR 50 million, 58. 48 in the half year. What's your outlook for EBITDA on your international assets this year? What kind of performance do you think we'll be seeing in 2023 and 2024? My second question has to do with the performance of the investments this year. You're putting in some EUR 500 million into the grid, the international grid. How do you think that investment will evolve over time? I know this is a difficult question to answer 'cause it depends a lot on the permitting, but in line with the conversations that you're holding with the ministry, with your regulator, what are you expecting for 2023 and 2024? Thank you.

Fernando.

Speaker 6

Thank you so much, Fernando, for both of those questions. As you yourself have said, the performance of our international business is absolutely positive, contributing a lot of growth to our key financial figures in the group. Yes, we're talking about EUR 50 million in EBITDA, more or less. We would hope that EBITDA figure will continue to rise during the second half of this year. I don't think it would be a surprise if we hit the end of the year with about EUR 80 million linked to our international business. That would be our EBITDA figure estimate that we will give you for the full year. I would just repeat what we said about the long-term growth in our strategy plan.

Good news about our international section in our strategy plan. Yes, we're expecting EBITDA to be about EUR 80 million for that business for full year. CapEx investment, I believe that we are taking very resolute steps forward here. Remember that up until Q1 this year, we didn't have an approved planning that allowed us to actually move forward with the execution of the works. I think in some earlier presentation, we had told you about the preparatory work that we were doing, and we're now reaping the rewards of that preparatory work because we have approved planning now. + EUR 500 million in investment as a goal for this year.

Yes, it's a major challenge for Redeia, but we are in a good position to be able to deliver on that goal. Once we have managed to hit that figure and perhaps outperform it, EUR 500 million, then if you look at our strategy plan, the approximately one billion euros that we're expecting by the end of the plan is something that we think is within our reach, even more within our reach. We've changed some of the dynamics with regard to the way we are making investment. We made some internal changes, and we have really stepped up the pressure in the early part of the process to get the permits. The figures are starting to come through with that EUR 500 million figure for this year, which is absolutely key.

Over the next couple of years too, we will roll out the planning period. That preparatory work that we did last year, as I said, is bringing in its results, and we would expect to end the plan period with about EUR 1 billion. There's a couple of years left beyond this year. Positive progress. As I said, the prior work that we did before we got the approval of our planning is showing the good results now. We'll see that as we move forward. Thank you very much.

Speaker 4

Thank you, Fernando. Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, let me remind you all that if you would like to ask a question, you need to dial zero one on your telephone keypad. Thank you very much. Please go ahead with the next question.

Speaker 6

Yes. Good morning. Thank you for your presentation. I have three questions for you. The first one is about the possible discussion or dialogue that you will have with the regulator with regard to the regulation of Redeia. As we move forward, there are two issues that are outstanding, and one you mentioned, one of those that is remuneration for work in progress and secondly, the possible adjustment for inflation. Could you give us an update on any discussions that you are currently having with the regulator? Give us your impression about whether these amendments or these changes could perhaps be made to the regulation covering you at some point. It would be interesting to hear from you on that. The second point that I wanted to raise with you is the environment.

Speaker 5

You mentioned a couple of times in your presentation the environment itself, didn't you? That environment means that we will have to step up with the investment to connect Europe. How could Red Eléctrica help to improve the situation in Spain and the rest of Europe? If you can help, what is your view on whether that means that you will have to increase your CapEx for Spain and Europe, and maybe do something with hydrogen? Does that mean that the company at some point might be looking at asset rotation as an option to be able to focus more on the domestic business or the core business to be able to speed up its CapEx? The third question I have for you is about the EBITDA margin.

In your strategy plan that you have presented, that you're looking at a 70% EBITDA margin. That's currently higher, I believe, than that. Do you think that that figure, that 70% is still valid, or is it now starting to become conservative? Could you give us some additional details on Hispasat's results? Thank you.

Speaker 4

Perfecto.

Right. Many thanks for your questions. Let's start with your first question about our contact with the regulators. Well, it's permanent. We have a very close relationship with our regulator, and contact at all levels is constant. Evidently, there are aspects in the regulation that do impact us, and they have to be debated. We discuss these things with them. We have a regulatory framework established for us, which has been signed off for the whole period until 2025, and that regulatory framework is stable, and it has fair remuneration. We're always talking to the regulator to try to improve things in line with many other countries in Europe, other TSOs, because as you said, they've included the remuneration for work in progress and the recognition of the impact of inflation in the short term, sometimes in their regulatory frameworks.

It is true that our model makes it possible to take up the impact we might get from inflation for the forthcoming regulatory period. At the moment we're discussing this with the regulator to see if it's possible to amend the current regulatory framework in order to incorporate this extraordinary impact that we're seeing with such high inflation on our regulatory model in the short term, and also the incorporation of the remuneration for work in progress. Now, that has been brought up and is going to be used for what we have in Salto de Chira, and that could be applicable as well, why not, to other significant projects like the possible interconnection with France or other high-level projects which are quite a long way ahead in their planning.

I'd say that the regulator is receptive to our arguments about the extraordinary environment that we're working in, so we're talking with them in order to improve the regulatory framework above all in these two aspects that you mentioned. Then your second question, the possible speeding up of investment. Well, obviously for Redeia, the absolute priority is to accompany the energy transition, and that's in our strategy plan, which gives an estimate for the possible rollout of investments related to planning. You've seen that. With the sale of Reintel, I think we've managed to shore up our balance sheet for Red Eléctrica de España in order to roll out its CapEx.

We're not expecting to see any need to rotate assets in order to get a more robust balance sheet than what we've already got in Red Eléctrica de España in order to carry out its investment program. We've got a balance sheet which is sufficiently robust to deal with any investments that are required for the transition, and that's an absolute priority for us. We don't really see any need to start thinking about rotating assets because the financial capacity of Red Eléctrica de España is more than sufficient to cover our requirements. We have established targets for financial solvency throughout the strategic period in order to take on even more investment should needs be, and we are fully solvent in order to cover everything we have with the capacity we already have in Red Eléctrica.

Then finally, you talked about our EBITDA margin for the end of the strategy plan that was set at 70%. I think that although right now we're showing higher margins, you should remember that in 2024 and 2025, there will be a readjustment because of the assets that we have, and we'll have to contain some of that impact. If you look at the operating income, we will have to maintain that and be efficient so that in 2024, 2025, we will nonetheless see a drop in that margin. At the moment, yes, we are going through a positive period this half year with our efficiency policies working as well. Nonetheless, the plan we have for 2024 and 2025 will mean that the margin will go down, and we're committed to maintain that EBITDA margin of around 70%.

That obviously has to take into account that adjustment that we'll be managing in the years 2024 and 2025. Javier? What about the Hispasat results? Oh, yes. In Hispasat we have good news too.

Speaker 5

I think that after having managed complex years with COVID and the problems of mobility and such, like right now, there's growing demand for satellite services, and we're seeing that in Hispasat. Really, we're taking on very interesting projects through the company, which is giving excellent results, as you've seen in our EBITDA. We're managing the universal connectivity service for that high connectivity that we're going to be providing. I think it's gonna be a beautiful process. It can have a very positive impact on the bottom line for Hispasat. The activity in Latin America is also performing very positively, and we've got the Amazonas Nexus satellite, which is being manufactured. That will mean the revenues of the company will go up, and that will be consolidated over time.

In 2022, EBITDA should be higher than the EBITDA we got last year. That is a sign that the needs for connectivity and satellite services from Hispasat are increasing. Demand is going up, and we're seeing the results of that for the year-end and for 2022. As we've said in the presentation, we're expecting to see a positive performance in the company's EBITDA. Can I just add, Roberto, the results of Hispasat are very sound, in line with those of the previous years, slightly higher, and the exchange rates are favorable, with more organic growth than we had last year. We're satisfied with the business. If you look at the bottom line, there is, yes, a slight drop against last year, but fundamentally, that's due to one-off non-recurring aspects. Hispasat last year had a contribution from its subsidiary, Hispasat.

Also, we look at the results of last year with the application of certain non-recurring tax impacts, which we won't have this year. Coming back to what Roberto said, the Amazonas Nexus satellite is getting good tax rebates, and we benefited from that last year and getting even more from it this year.

Speaker 4

No more questions then on the Spanish channel, so let's hand over to the English channel for questions in English.

Operator

The first question comes from Arthur Sitbon from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Arthur Sitbon
VP of Utilities and Clean Energy Equity Research, Morgan Stanley

Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the critical maintenance cost budget. I think in the past, you had mentioned EUR 80 million accumulated in 2022 and 2023. I was wondering if you were confirming that budget or if that budget has evolved over the past few months. The second question is on the Brazilian transmission. You're mentioning that you have involvement there. I know it's quite a competitive market, so I was wondering if you could help us with your assumption or your targets in terms of real returns targeted in this segment. The last question I have is on the CapEx in Spanish transmission.

Based on the numbers that you're disclosing for 2021-2025, I suspect you may be close to EUR 1 billion of annual CapEx at the end of the period. I was wondering if this sounds fair to you, and if this is something we should extrapolate to the second part of the decade. Thank you very much.

Speaker 5

Arthur, thank you very much for those questions. Your first question about that special maintenance plan that we announced a few months back. Yes. The volume of activities that we suggested is exactly the same. 2022, 2023, yes, total EUR 80 million. That is the figure overall for the work to carry out maintenance on those critical assets to ensure we have security of supply. It's just a two-year plan, and it's for that EUR 80 million budget. And we've already carried out some of that work in the first half of the year. Some of the impact of the plan can be seen in this first half of the year.

You'll be able to see as we move into the second half of the year, in 2023, on a straight line basis, how we roll out that plan with that investment. I said it's a very specific ad hoc plan for two years, with that EUR 80 million budget investment, which has already had an impact, as you've seen in our first half-year results. The question about Brazil and investment in Brazil. I totally agree with you. Brazil is an opportunity for investment, a very attractive investment opportunity for transmission for international investors, both for projects already ongoing and also for new concessions, new tenders that have been announced recently.

There was one actually for a number of tenders that did attract top caliber bidders. Our experience there with our international partner is very positive that we have that vehicle that we have that with that company. We have set out predefined about EUR 125 million in our strategy plan already. In Brazil, we're seeing further opportunities which could generate added value for the company, and we're tracking those opportunities as they come up. Quite clearly, Brazil is an area we're focusing on as in our international business for further investment. We are constantly on the watch for opportunities, and I don't think it would be odd if during our strategy plan that we would increase our investment there through Argo.

The returns that we're getting in Brazil are higher than the returns we're getting in our regulated business in Spain and of course the investment environment, the context in Brazil, I'd like to highlight for you, is highly secure, very protected with those high return rates. We're seeing in the experience of the activity with Argo of recent years that is the case. Brazil is an attractive market. Of course, we have certain parameters there, don't we? That we have set out those thresholds as part of our strategy plan that we presented last year. Then your third question was about our CapEx, our investment plan. That EUR 1 billion ballpark figure is a midterm target.

Quite obviously we have the planning that has just been approved. We did our preparatory work there, but it's all about timing and deadlines. We have to work on this part of the process, the permitting process, and then we have our commissioning work to do. Even though we are stepping up what we're doing, we're speeding up as much as we can, I think it will take us two, maybe even three years to deliver on those minimum investment CapEx thresholds. The good news is that we've looked at the national plan investment figures for Spain, and we've also looked at what is going to be needed for the energy transition.

In the mid and long term, the EUR 1 billion investment figure might just continue to be an average figure, following on from 2025. We still have a couple of years to roll out investment there, that EUR 1 billion. Then as of that figure, that cruising speed of EUR 1 billion might still be valid to cover all of those investment needs for the National Energy and Climate Plan in Spain and the transition plan. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from Antonella Bianchessi from Citi. Please go ahead.

Antonella Bianchessi
Global Head of Utilities Equity Research, Citi

Hello, good morning. Just a quick question. The first one is if you can give us your view on the return that you can achieve on CapEx. The second is, what is your cost of capital in your view? And the third is, do you see a scenario where in a rising rate environment that actually your CapEx plan might turn out to be very distracting? And in this case, what the company would be ready to do, how flexible you are on CapEx, which type of, you know, government intervention, or you will just, you know, go ahead with your CapEx plan.

Is the CapEx flexible or depending on rates or, you know, once it's committed, you have to go ahead until the end? Thank you. Perfecto.

Speaker 4

Well, thank you, Antonella. If you wish, maybe I'll answer your last question, and then Emilio can talk about the cost of capital. Okay. Right, inflation, how does that affect our CapEx plan? I think the regulatory framework we have protects us, recognizing that there can be an increase in inflation, and there's a high percentage of our investment plan that's what we call one-off projects. These are projects that don't have standard parameters, and so they're managed with recognized cost. That's something that the regulator has to approve. In the framework that we work in which all of our investments are subject to a cost-benefit analysis, and they are all profitable for the system, we don't think the regulator will have any problems in recognizing the increases in investment that we might need because of the impact of inflation.

We've already seen that in the first cases that we've had to manage. Then the part of the investment that isn't for one-off projects, well, there we have a mechanism that recognizes half of the possible overruns on costs that we get because of increases in prices above the standard prices that are regulated. On that side of things, the mechanism recognizes at least half of the potential overrun of costs. We're also working with a philosophy of looking at things in the long term, with contracts for supply which cover a medium to long term, and that protects us against the increase in inflation, which is really a short-term impact for other activities. That's important, but we are protected by these long-term supply contracts, so perhaps for us, the impact is less intense.

Speaker 5

Yes. Thank you, Antonio, for your question. The cost of capital, it depends what business we're talking about. The biggest business for us is the transmission business in Spain. The cost of capital here, it's 5.58%, which is 4.2% after tax, and that's reasonably applicable in the current circumstances, where we're seeing that some of the interest rates are higher. We could say our cost of capital is approximately around those figures. In general, in our investments and what we're commissioning in Spain, the IRR on the project we're obtaining is usually higher than the cost of capital that we have. In other businesses which aren't regulated, telecommunications and our international business, using the methodologies that we've already talked about, our cost of capital is higher, with higher risk associated to the investments.

Obviously, we're monitoring our costs of capital and updating them according to the circumstances and adapting the kind of returns we demand on our investments to the context of the cost of capital that we have right now, and in the future. Basically, to sum up, we're always trying to get value from our investments. We're always working on that and to date, and we've done that, and we think in the future we'll continue to. The internal rate of returns that we get have been and will continue to be higher than the cost of capital, which is the whole point of making investments. The final question has already been answered. I think we can then declare that we have finished this presentation of results for the half year. The investor relations team is here if you've got any additional questions.

Many thanks for being here with us today, and have a good summer.

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