Hello, and welcome to the Repsol Third Quarter 2022 Results Conference Call. Today's conference will be conducted by Mr. Josu Jon Imaz, CEO, and a brief introduction will be given by Mr. Ramón Álvarez-Pedrosa, Head of Investor Relations. I would now like to hand the call over to Mr. Álvarez-Pedrosa. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Repsol's Third quarter Results Conference Call. Today's call will be hosted by Josu Jon Imaz, our Chief Executive Officer, with other members of the executive team joining us as well. Before we start, I advise you to read our disclaimer. During this presentation, we may make forward-looking statements based on estimates. Actual results may differ materially depending on a number of factors as indicated in the disclaimer. I will now hand the call to Josu Jon.
Thank you, Ramón. Thanks to everyone online for joining us today. I hope that all of you are well. In today's call, I'd like to cover the following main topics. Firstly, the key messages. Secondly, the performance of our businesses. Third, a recap of our recent ESG Day held in London, and some of you had the opportunity to attend. Finally, a summary of financial results and an updated outlook. Of course, at the end of this presentation, I will be available to answer your questions. To begin with, let me take you through the key messages. Last quarter was again characterized by an extremely complex and changing environment. In a scenario of elevated energy prices, the threat of an economic downturn and supply constraints generated a lot of volatility during the period.
The adjusted net income was EUR 1.5 billion, 30% lower than in previous quarter, due to lower oil price realization and narrower downstream margins. The cash flow from operations reached EUR 3.2 billion, 73% higher than in the second quarter, helped by a positive evolution of working capital. Net debt closed at EUR 2.2 billion, a EUR 2.8 billion decrease from June and EUR 3.6 billion lower compared to December. Debt reduction was driven by operating cash generation and the cashing of the renewable disposal, partially offset by the July dividend payment and the acquisition of own shares through the buyback program. Gearing ratio stood at 7.3% by the end of the quarter, compared to 17% in June.
In this dynamic, unpredictable context, we keep moving faster towards our strategic objectives, accelerating the transformation of our portfolio, increasing the returns to our shareholders, and maintaining a solid balance sheet to face uncertainty in any future macro scenario. In line with this transformation, on the seventh of September, we reached an agreement with EIG to divest 25% of our upstream division. This strategic alliance is based on the continuity of our business plan while offering additional optionality for this key business vertical. It allows us to crystallize value in a complex environment and liberate capital to accelerate the shift into our low carbon platforms. This agreement comes after the partnership entered in June to grow our renewable business.
Together, the two transactions will generate combined proceeds of EUR 4.3 billion to Repsol, with an implied valuation of more than EUR 23 billion, including debt for just two of our four business verticals. Regarding shareholder distributions, yesterday, we completed the share buyback program in place since the 28th of July, that I announced that day, and redeemed the 75 million shares committed in our previous conference call. Looking forward, aligned with our guidance of distributing between 25%-30% of our cash flow from operations, the board of directors yesterday approved to increase the distributions of 2022 through an additional capital reduction of 50 million shares expected to be executed before year end. With this, we expect to have canceled 200 million shares in 2022, anticipating the commitment defined in our strategic plan by three years.
Furthermore, the better price scenario compared with assumptions of our plan has allowed our board to propose to the next AGM an 11% dividend increase in 2023 to EUR 0.70 per share. Let me finalize these opening remarks by reinforcing that we remain committed to our disciplined capital approach and our strategy of value over volume, always under a prudent financial policy, as these are the factors under our control in the volatile scenario we have ahead. Let me now briefly review the main macroeconomic indicators of the quarter. Brent averaged $101 per barrel, a $13 decrease quarter-on-quarter, and $27 above the same period a year ago. Henry Hub averaged $8.2 per million BTU, 14% above second quarter, and 105% higher than a year ago.
The average refining margin indicator remained well above mid-cycle levels despite high volatility, having fluctuated between 0 and $20 per barrel at different points of the quarter. Lastly, the US dollar continued its escalation, averaging $1.01 per euro, having surpassed parity in October. Let's move on to the upstream performance. The strategic partnership with EIG validates our commitment to the upstream vertical as a core division for our group, and with this deal, we are bringing a leading global investor that has proven capabilities to help us maximize the value of our E&P business. Repsol will receive proceeds of $3.4 billion for a total consideration of $4.8 billion, including debt. The deal implies an enterprise value of $19 billion for the 100% of the business and attractive premium compared to benchmarks.
Repsol will maintain control and continue to consolidate the upstream division in its accounts. The effective date of the transaction is the 13th of June of 2022, and closing is expected in the first quarter of 2023. Looking at the quarterly results, third quarter adjusted net income was EUR 0.8 billion, EUR 194 million reduction over second quarter, and EUR 358 million higher than in the same period of 2021. Year-over-year results were driven by higher prices, higher volumes, and the stronger dollar, partially offset by higher costs and the impact of country exits. Net production averaged 549,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 2% higher than in the previous quarter and 4% higher than the same period in 2021.
Year over year, the connection of new wells in Eagle Ford and Marcellus and higher volumes in Trinidad and Tobago more than compensated for the impact of disposals and natural decline. Compared to the second quarter, the normalization of production in Libya and increased activity and conventionals more than offset the lower contribution of Peru. In Norway, the recent technical issues in Yme have been solved and production has been resumed. Turning to the development activity, last quarter, we took some important steps forward in four of our projects. In Alaska, the FID for the development of the first phase of Pikka was taken in August, with first oil forecast in 2026 and aggregate production of 80,000 barrels of oil per day. The project has a carbon intensity footprint that is among the lowest in our global upstream portfolio.
In unconventionals, we approved the third development phase of Eagle Ford, expecting a net aggregate production for the three phases of 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent by 2023. In Trinidad and Tobago, the development of Cypre offshore gas project was sanctioned in September. First gas is expected in 2025, with aggregate peak production of 250-300 million standard cubic feet per day. In Brazil, the go-ahead for Lapa South-west is expected to be approved this quarter in November. In the Campos Basin, the joint venture is progressing with the Pão de Açúcar project , and the final investment decision for its development is expected soon.
Moving now to the industrial division, the adjusted net income was EUR 638 million, which compares to a result of EUR 1.2 billion in the second quarter and EUR 100 million a year ago. Year over year, third quarter results benefit from the higher contribution of refining, trading, and Peru, partially offset by lower results in chemicals and wholesale and gas trading. In refining, the margin indicator averaged $12.7 per barrel, which compares to $23.3 in the previous quarter and to $3.2 in the same period a year ago. The narrowing of product spreads and the increase of energy costs explain the reduction of the indicator over the previous quarter. The average premium in our unit CCS margin was $2.5 over the indicator.
The utilization of the distillation and conversion units remain high, averaging 88% and 103% respectively. Unit availability benefit from the absence of any major turnarounds in the quarter. The planned turnaround of Tarragona started on the 23rd of September and is planned to last for around 50 days to months. In the current context, we continue to manage our assets to maximize the output of middle distillates and reduce gas consumption. The scenario that we foresee will benefit those players with enough flexibility to reduce their exposure to high natural gas prices and switch to lower cost liquids. Repsol has reduced its consumption of natural gas by 50% compared to historical levels by substituting natural gas for other feedstocks in the hydrogen plants and fuel gas network.
Continuing now with the chemical business, the operating net income turned negative in the quarter. Results were negatively affected by the weakness of polyolefins and intermediate products and the higher energy costs. The challenging environment for this business could be an advance indicator that we are possibly approaching an economic downturn. Demand drop is affecting almost all chemical sectors, with increasing imports and high energy costs causing a significant reduction in margins in Europe. Production costs have quickly increased, reflecting the difficulties with gas supply and the high cost of electricity. Going now to the projects that are helping us transform our industrial complexes. In renewable hydrogen, the 100-MW electrolyzer in Cartagena and the 150-MW electrolyzer in Tarragona have moved into the engineering phase. Both projects are expected to begin operation in 2025.
In Bilbao, the 2.5 MW pilot electrolyzer is expected to start production at the beginning of next year. The development of the future 100 MW electrolyzer in Petronor Bilbao is at its final basic engineering phase with potential FID before year-end. Let me highlight that the electrolyzer in Cartagena and the 100 MW project in Bilbao have been qualified by the European Union as strategic and of general interest, being prioritized in this way of public funding for their development. In circular economy, earlier this month, we acquired a 27% stake in Acteco, a company specialized in the collection of recycling and recovery of waste in Spain. Lastly, the Ecoplanta project in Tarragona keeps moving forward with the engineering phase after being selected by the European Commission to be funded through the Innovation Fund large scale program.
Turning now to the commercial and renewable business segment. The adjusted net income was EUR 158 million, EUR 60 million higher than the previous quarter and EUR 11 million below the same period of a year ago. Year-over-year, the better performance in lubricants, LPG and low carbon generation didn't compensate the lower results in mobility and retail electricity and gas. In mobility, sales in our service station in Spain were 8% higher than the third quarter of last year, but results were dragged down again by the impact of discounts. Our Waylet app has reached more than five million users as of today. The discounts applied by Repsol represent more than EUR 150 million in the third quarter for a cumulative total of around EUR 300 million since the beginning of this program in March.
We anticipated to our competitors in Spain by voluntarily lowering the price of our fuels, and we maintain our commitment to soften the impact of high fuel prices on consumers. In retail, electricity and gas, we are very close to reach the 1.5 million Iberian customers targeted to the year-end. This month, we have reached an agreement to acquire a portfolio of additional 100,000 clients, allowing us to continue growing in what is becoming an increasingly competitive market. In low carbon generation, the average pool price in Spain was EUR 146 per megawatt hour, 20% lower than in the second quarter, and the power generated by Repsol reached 2.8 terawatt hours, 23% higher than in previous quarter.
In September, we completed the sale of a 25% minority stake of our renewable business for EUR 905 million. The incorporation of the new partners reinforces our growth strategy towards the objective of having 6 GW of installed capacity and operation in 2025. We currently have 1.2 GW under construction in our renewable project pipeline. In Texas, construction began in the 600-MW Frye solar project, which is expected to start up next year. Moreover, through our participation in Hecate, we expect to incorporate the 629-MW Outpost solar farm to our U.S. portfolio. Combining Frye and Outpost, we are talking about 1.23 MW of new projects in the States.
At this point, let me briefly review the main messages shared in our recent ESG day, in which we had the opportunity with you to discuss our progress in Repsol's sustainability framework. Most of my talk there revolves around the importance of achieving a just transition that is fair for the people. For our society to become carbon neutral by 2050, we must have accessible, competitive, and sustainable energy that supports social and economic development. A just transition is a concept that involves guaranteeing an adequate supply of energy, including hydrocarbons, to meet the needs of present and future demand at affordable prices. The transition must also reinforce Europe's industrial base. Only with industry and talent we can grow in a sustainable way. The elephant in the room is that the world is not reducing emissions.
Since 1990s, Europe has cut its emissions by more than 30%, but reducing the weight of industry in European GDP from 21% to 17% in the last two decades. In that timeframe, global CO2 emissions have increased by a worrying 44%. Climate change is a global problem. We won't reduce emissions just relocating the European industry, moving CO2 emissions elsewhere or sweeping these CO2 emissions under the carpet. Our goal should be to decarbonize the economy, not just to electrify it. The technologies that will help our society to decarbonize shouldn't be seen as antagonistic, but as complementary. To a large extent, Europe has given up producing its own hydrocarbons, but a single-minded commitment to electric mobility will make us dependent on other countries for rare minerals and precious metal.
In this sense, the availability of efficient, sustainable renewable fuels will be crucial for a clean mobility and for decarbonizing sectors where electrification is not, with the current technologies today, an option. Two of our presentations in London elaborated on the crucial concept of technology neutrality. I can't stress enough the importance that regulation will have to deliver our objectives. We can confirm, for example, the very different approaches between the European and US legal packages. I see the new Inflation Reduction Act approved in the US as a more inclusive way to go, relying on technological neutrality and diversification as the best route to achieve the effective decarbonization of our economies. Moving now briefly to the financial results of the quarter. Here you have a summary of the numbers we have discussed when reviewing the performance of the businesses.
For further details, I encourage you to refer to the complete documents that were released this morning. Now let me take you through our update outlook to the end of the year. In the upstream, we expect full year production to average 550,000 barrels per day, around 20,000 barrels below previous guidance. The reduction is mostly due to Canada divestments, a ramp-up longer than expected in Wyoming, and operational issues in Peru, and some delays in unconventionals. In refining, in the last few weeks, a tightening of the middle distillate market and the wave of strikes, mainly in France, have brought margins well above the third quarter.
The margin indicator has averaged more than $20 per barrel in October, and the utilization of the distillation capacity has been close to 80% due to the turnaround of Tarragona, while keeping our profitable conversion capacity above 95%, even with the turnaround of Tarragona. The estimated full-year cash flow from operations is between EUR 8.4 billion and EUR 8.7 billion. CapEx is expected to reach EUR 4 billion at the higher end of our previous guidance. With regard to shareholder distributions, the clearer vision that we have at this point on the cash generation of the year has allowed yesterday our board to approve the redemption of another 50 million shares before year-end.
Of these, around 36 million shares will be acquired through our formal buyback program that is going to be launched in coming days, and the rest will be shares held physically or acquired through derivative instruments. The 75 million shares canceled in May, the 75 additional million shares redeemed yesterday, and the additional 50 million shares just approved yesterday, again, will make for a total of 200 million shares to be canceled in 2022. This is equivalent to 13% reduction of our share capital at the beginning of the year, anticipating to 2022 all the share buyback commitments expected in our strategic plan until 2025.
In addition, the board will propose to the next AGM to distribute a cash dividend of EUR 0.70 per share in 2023, an 11% increase of which EUR 0.35 Will be paid in January and EUR 0.37 later in the year. This comes after having increased the 2022 dividend by up 5% to EUR 0.63 Per share. Total shareholder distribution in 2022 will be in the higher end of our guidance to distribute 25%-30% of cash flow from operations. Moreover, the total distribution for the year will comfortably surpass the EUR 1 per share originally expected in our strategic plan by 2025, combining, of course, the cash and the share buyback. To finalize, let me briefly touch on the speculation these days on the windfall taxes or the so-called windfall taxes, better said.
Like I said in our previous call, our industry is not a regulated business, so there are not windfall profits to tax. On the opposite, ours is a cyclical business affected by the terms of economy and characterized by volatility. The oil and gas sector doesn't operate with regulated tariffs that ensure profitability like some other sectors. We are in an industrial liberalized business, and the current profits don't compensate for the accumulated losses and negative returns we have had in the last three years. The windfall tax approved by European Union on the refining industry erodes investor confidence, harms international competitiveness. Let me say, creates the seeds of doubt on its capacity to invest in the transformation of the sector. In our view, the levy imposed on energy companies requires additional measures to mitigate these negative impacts.
To conclude, we continue to approach the current uncertain scenario with a solid capital discipline that we have, of course, in mind. We are allocating the extra cash generated in this higher price scenario in accordance with the allocation priorities defined in our strategy, portfolio transformation, shareholder remuneration, and financial strength. The strategic partnerships in the upstream and renewables have allowed us to crystallize value in a complex environment, liberating capital to accelerate our shift to low carbon. By the end of this year, we will have canceled all the shares initially forecast in the five years of our strategic plan. In 2022, the remuneration per share will surpass the objective defined by 2025. Repsol is fully committed with achieving carbon neutrality in 2050.
For this, we have a clear strategy, a streamlined organization, and an operating model that is focused on this target, and a team of people to make it happen. An orderly energy transition requires diversified sources of energy. The transition towards climate neutrality must be just for everybody. This goal will be better achieved by guaranteeing security of supply and affordability, pillar on technology and industrial development, that in turn foster employment and social progress. With that, I mean, I think that I could now hand the conference call to Ramón. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Josu Jon. In case you run into technical problems, please contact us through our email address, investor.relations@repsol.com, and we will contact you immediately to try to solve it. Before moving on to the Q&A session, I'd like the operator to remind us of the process to ask a question. Please go ahead.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your names to be announced. Once again, that's star one and one.
Thank you. Let me now move to the Q&A session. Our first question comes from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC. Please, Biraj, go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Two, please. The first one's on the financial framework. When you commit to the 25%-30% payout, is that on headline CFFO, or is that after the minority payments, which, I guess, will start to ramp up post the upstream sale? Are you assuming anything of windfall tax in your 2022 numbers, and if so, how much? The second question is on the wholesale gas trading result this quarter. You mentioned some losses on a trading contract. Can you just confirm, you know, what exactly that was and whether that's a one-off, or we should expect more of that into Q4? Thank you.
Thank you, Biraj. I mean, we talk about the cash flow from operations. I mean, there is no, this year, any proceeds coming from the disposal of the E&P business because we are still on track in the process of closing. That is going to be done probably in the first quarter of 2023. In any case, this cash flow from operations is going to be calculated before, I mean, any disposal. There is neither disposals nor any kind of windfall tax in this figure.
I mean, saying more, Biraj, more or less it seems to me that what we are committing in 2022, that means the share buyback, including the purchase program we are launching this week, with this new 50 million shares that are going to be redeemed before the end of the year, plus all the shares redeemed before this year, plus the current EUR 0.63 dividend that we paid in 2022, it could be probably in the high range of this 30% of cash flow from operations. More or less, that is going to fit with the high range of this cash flow from operations calculated this year.
Of course, that's going to depend on the evolution of the coming two months, but we are going to be probably close to this 30%. I mean, going to the wholesale gas trading, it seems to me that we are asking about what is in our accounting this quarter. I mean, let me say that, first of all, it is a mark-to-market position. It's related to a contract we have with Eni. That is a contract for gas trading. I mean, it's not related to the gas we are using for supplying our industrial complexes. It has nothing to do with the cash generation. I mean, it's only an accounting of the future mark-to-market position of this contract.
Probably very impacted because the spread we experienced the last days of September between the TTF that is related to this contract and the Spanish internal PVB internal market that had an important discount those days. That has been significantly reduced over this month of October. It's mark-to-market position, and it's not going to have an impact on cash. I mean, the cash generation of gas trading wholesale business this quarter has been pretty good. More or less, a free cash flow of around $300 million over the quarter. Thank you, Biraj.
Thank you.
Thank you, Biraj. Our next question comes from Oswald Clint at Bernstein. Go ahead, Oswald.
Yes, good morning, if you can hear me. Thank you, Josu Jon Imaz. You talked about the solid balance sheet you have and reaching your strategic objectives way faster than you would've anticipated. You also mentioned how much you like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. You know, should we expect Repsol to make some accelerated moves or investments across clean energy in the United States and take advantage of these favorable tax credits, favorable economics? If so, what technology may you look at would be the first question. Secondly, please, just shorter term refining margins. You mentioned $20 in October. I think September you had a lot of swings, big volatility between $0 and $20.
I'm thinking forward to some of the disruptions here with Russia coming up and also increased Chinese diesel flows perhaps coming around, perhaps into Atlantic Basin. How do you think diesel margins might behave or trend, let's say, over the next six, nine months or so, please, if you could? Thank you.
Thank you, Oswald. I mean, going to your first question, I mean, you know that we are accelerating in some way our investment in the transformation process of the company, looking for a profitable growth in all our businesses, but with an important focus on the low-carbon businesses. You also know that, I mean, we are prudent people. Let me say that perhaps at the beginning of a potential complex or volatile time, I mean, being a prudent and cold CEO sometimes could have a negative valuation for markets, but I think that it is important. We are going to have opportunities in coming months, no doubt about that. We are going to see, I mean, stressed companies. We are going to see opportunities. I think that we have to be patient.
These opportunities are going to arrive, and we are going to try to execute them in a prudent way. In some way, we are doing moves in this direction you mentioned as well. I mean, in the American renewable arena, now we have on track our project, Frye, with more than 600 MW that will be in operation this year. On top of that, I mean, we acquired a pipeline from Hecate Energy in a project that is called Outpost, more than 500-600 MW. I mean, combining both, we are going to invest EUR 1.2 billion.
On top of that, we have to consider that we are also analyzing some other opportunities, of course, in Spain and also in Europe and in the United States. These two operations are going to have a CapEx at around $800 million. It's a significant figure. On top of that, I mean, we are also analyzing potential growth platforms in some other technologies, like wind energy in the States. But again, we are only to execute these kind of transactions if we have a clear view that it's going to create value for our shareholders and it's going to give us a real opportunity to invest and create value in this business.
I mean, I think that this IRA is going to give us additional returns and opportunities to shift a part of our investments towards the United States. Because as I mentioned before, sometimes the European policymakers' approach is focused on banning. The American one, they are focused on encouraging and giving opportunities under the principle of the technological neutrality. Going to your second question, I mean, Oswald, I'm going to be very humble. I don't have a crystal ball. I don't know. In case of going on, unfortunately, in social, economic and political terms, with the current geopolitical tension in Europe, it seems to me that this very open diesel cracks are going to stay for coming months. Why?
I mean, first of all, because there is a real restriction to the imports of Russian diesel. Even let me say, in operational terms, to diesel production in some Russian refineries. All this product is not going to appear from some other parts of Asian geographies. Secondly, winter is coming.
You know that seasonally winter is a period where diesel margins or diesel cracks are higher than in some other periods of the year. Third, I mean, it seems to me that taking into account the dreadful, the high natural gas prices we are seeing in Europe and in some other parts of the world, clearly speaking, all the parts of the world depending on LNG imports, diesel could be competitive in some places to substitute gas, either for thermal application or for producing a power in some geographies. It seems to me that there is room to see high diesel prices in coming months. I mean, in the lack of good, but probably today unexpected, deal in political terms about the invasion of Ukraine and the Russian conflict.
Thank you, Oswald.
Thank you.
Thank you, Oswald. Next question comes from Joshua Stone at Barclays. Please, Joshua.
Good afternoon. Thanks, Ramón. Hi, Josu Jon Imaz. Two questions, please. Firstly, coming back on refining, clearly a very strong result. If I look at the EBIT margins, my math is right, it looks like they outperformed the indicator by about $6 a barrel. You talked about premiums as 2.5. It clearly costs are coming in better as well. It's maybe just to talk about what's driving that very strong refining result this quarter and how much you think can stick around for next quarter and beyond. Then secondly, you've completed the buyback program early. You'll be looking into next year. How do you see the balance of returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks? Is a special dividend something you might consider? Thank you.
Thank you, Joshua. I mean, going to the refining, I mean, what is driving the strong refining margin? First of all, I mean, as I mentioned before, we had the CCS margin was in the third quarter at around $15 per barrel, including the premium, 12.5, 12.7 is the figure I have in mind, as a margin indicator. In October, this figure grew to a figure close to $20 per barrel as average over the whole month. I mean, there are two main drivers, and the main drivers are directly linked to the main features of the Repsol refining system.
You know that we have a system that mainly is fed by heavy oil, a higher percentage than some other systems, close to 40-45% sometimes. Our main product at 55% are middle distillate. What we have seen is a strong behavior of middle distillate cracks, mainly diesel, but also jet, and a quite significant discount in the price of heavy oil, so the main feedstock we use. We have a cheaper feedstock, and we have a higher margin in the products of refining. Let me say that what is happening now in European markets fits in a very positive way to what is the main feature, the main pillars of the refining system of Repsol that we have built over the last 15 years, investing hard.
It's true that we have invested more than EUR 12 billion in this system over the last 15 years to build these capacities. Now we are taking the returns of all the effort of sustaining industrial jobs, sustaining industrial activities, and investing EUR 12 billion over the last 15 years. I mean, after the share buyback program, I mean, I see the balance is strong. Let me say that I'm not uncomfortable having a strong balance. I mean, it's great. Mainly when you have to, I mean, you have to weather perhaps a complex macroeconomic time with a strong volatility in markets and with the risk of having a crisis in our geographies. I mean, I'm talking about Europe, North America, and so on, perhaps worldwide.
I mean, I don't have any clue about the depth or about the length of this potential crisis. Let me say, I'm comfortable having a strong balance sheet for this period. We are not considering any special dividend. What we did today in terms of redeeming yesterday 75 million shares, launching today a new program that is going to redeem an additional 50 million shares before the end of the year, plus increasing by 11% the cash dividend to EUR 0.70 per share in 2023. I think that is the way to cope with the distribution policy to our shareholders.
That fits with the high range of this 25-30% of the cash flow from operations, and that is the way we are going to follow also in 2023. I mean, our policy, our commitment is first of all to distribute next year a figure fitting with this 25-30% of the cash flow from operations. We are going to go on with our share buyback programs in 2023 and 2024. The dimension of this program will fit this percentage of the cash flow from operations.
Let me say, I'm convinced that in the current macro scenario, there is plenty of room to fulfill in among 2023 and 2024, a minimum of an additional 100 million shares more of buybacks that could reduce the number of shares of Repsol to a figure close to 1.2 billion shares. Why 1.2 billion shares? Is that a magic number? No. It's the number of shares we had in 2012 before launching the first scrip program after the confiscation of our YPF assets in Argentina.
I mean, I have the aim of going back to that figure, 1.2 billion shares, in some way, redeeming the hurt that our shareholders have let me use the term, suffered in some way over the last 10 years, for the consequence of that scrip we had to launch in 2012 after the expropriation of YPF. There is room for new share buyback programs in 2023, 2024, and that is going to fit in this range of 25%-30% of the cash flow from operations as a total distribution for our shareholders. Thank you, Joshua.
Very clear. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, Joshua. Next question comes from Irene Himona at Société Générale. Please, Irene, go ahead.
Congratulations, Josu Jon.
Hi, Irene.
I had two questions. Firstly, if you can possibly talk about the special charge, EUR 400 million, you took on refining this quarter. It follows the Q2 charge of EUR 1.5 billion, I think. Can you perhaps share with us your view of, you know, what long-term refining margins you assume to take those impairments, please? Then my second question on balance sheet management. Excluding leases, you now have EUR 1.8 billion of net cash, and the E&P disposal is yet to come into the balance sheet. Obviously, we are at the top of the commodity price cycle. I wonder if you can talk around how you aspire to manage balance sheet versus distributions at the next downturn.
Could we presume that you continue distributing 25%-30% of obviously lower CFFO, and that you would re-leverage the balance sheet to continue paying that dividend? If that is the case, then how high would you accept to see gearing rising to at the bottom of this next down cycle, please? Thank you.
Thank you, Irene. I mean, let me say that we have a very positive view about our refining in the short and perhaps the midterm, due to what we are seeing now, as forecast in this context. I think that we have to be present, and we have to take into consideration that, I mean, the refining sector has threats coming from regulation, coming from energy efficiency, coming from an openness of another forms of mobility, and we are taking all these factors into consideration.
I mean, going to this impairment of the refining business that was done in this third quarter, this EUR 400 million, I mean, is something additional to what we book in the second quarter that goes around, I think I had the figure in mind of EUR 1.1-1.2 billion, more or less. What we have in mind when we analyze, as we often do in terms of analyzing the free cash flow and the cash flows of every business to have the fair value and to compare with the book value we have.
In the case of the asset impairment of our refining business in Spain, first of all, we have taken into consideration higher margins this fourth quarter expected and higher margins in 2023 due to the geopolitical situation. We are also considering higher costs, I mean, because we have a higher inflation that is going to happen in the fourth quarter and probably in 2023 than expected. We are also, I mean, taking in this whole basket of factors, also the possibility of higher taxes. I mean, temporary levies in the energy business, and we have considered possible scenarios that are consequences of the European regulation or in the case of having a Spanish law proposal.
We are also taking into consideration the WACC increase, I mean, due to risk-free euro interest rate. We have to take into account that this interest rate rise and the WACC increase in 0.4-0.5% comparing with June. I mean, when we put all that in consideration, I mean, we have this fair value that compares with the book value we had. I mean, again, we have a positive view about our refining business, taking into account all this consideration. I mean, the fair value that we are taking for our business amounts to EUR 7 billion. I mean, that's a real value for Repsol.
We have to take into account all these factors when we are talking about having prudent in accounting terms. I mean, going to your second question that was linked, I see here. I mean, the balance sheet. I mean, we are Irene, and I'm comfortable with the current balance sheet. I mean, that is not a priority to go on strengthening the balance sheet. What we are going to do is, first of all, I mean, to invest and to grow looking for opportunities to create value for our shareholders and growing mainly in the low carbon platforms. In this sense, I like to underline that we have invest more than EUR 1 billion this quarter. I mean, that's, for Repsol dimension, is a big figure.
We are going to invest EUR 4 billion in CapEx this year in 2022. I mean, we are increasing the figure I have now in mind is 50% more than what we invest last year. The figure is even at 15%-20% higher than the investment level we had in the pre-pandemic period. I mean, that means that we have projects, we have ambition. We are building platforms to invest and to grow, and that is going to be our first priority. Of course, always getting and looking for returns. On top of that, we are going to complement, as we are doing this year, this investment effort with the distribution to our shareholders in an ambitious way.
In this sense, I think that being close to this 30% of cash flow from operations as a total distribution figure, I mean, is quite ambitious in terms of distributing to our shareholders. That is our aim, not for 2022, also for coming years. Having a strong balance sheet, I mean, is some kind of guarantee to be able to fulfill all these targets we have. Thank you, Irene.
Thank you, Irene. Our next question comes from Mehdi Ennabeti at Bank of America. Please, Mehdi, go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, all, and thanks for taking my questions. It will be two follow-up questions, please. First one regarding the refining margin environment. Can you maybe tell us, you know, where is your refining margin indicator quarter to date, and where is it currently? Just for us to understand how to position, how is it, where is it, you know, compared to Q3, which was, you know, pretty strong quarter for the refining. The second question is that I understand that you are constructive on the refining margin in the short term, even in the near term.
I wanted to hear your view to hear your thoughts about the fact that China, you know, might decide or already decided, in fact, to export more oil products. Also, what do you think about the fact that in the Middle East, you know, some refineries might be starting soon and, you know, might also target the European diesel market, which is extremely strong. I am highlighting the negative points, you know, just to hear what you have to say. I also understand that we will be missing, you know, around 300 thousand barrels per day of Russian diesel exports, probably from beginning of next year. Just wanted to hear your view.
The second question is about, you know, the chemical business, which was pretty very strong last year, pretty strong in the first half of this year, and which, you know, started weakening in Q3. Can you maybe tell us if you think that the chemical margin, you know, reached a bottom in Q3, and you can already see, you know, a kind of improvement regarding chemical margin? Would you rather say that the macroeconomic environment, you know, remains quite weak and this doesn't allow the chemical margin to improve in the short term? Thank you.
Thank you, Mehdi. I mean, going to your first question, the figure I have now in front of me is that the average of the refining margin over the whole year in Repsol 2022 has been, I'm talking about the margin indicator with no premium, $15.3 per barrel. This month in October, $26 per barrel, and is mainly, as I mentioned before, due to this combined effect of higher diesel cracks, middle distillate cracks, plus the discount in heavy oil. That is our main feedstock. I mean, I see, and I try to go to your second question about China and so on.
I mean, first of all, I think that in some way this Chinese and Middle East exports toward Europe. Towards Europe, sorry, are going to be needed in some way to compensate the product that Europe now lacks. I mean, we have to take into consideration. I mean, you perfectly know in France, Mehdi, that I mean, now we are running out of Middle Distillates in Europe, in some European countries, so we need product. So it seems to me that this lack of Russian product that could be at around 500-600 thousand barrels per day of diesel has to be substitute. I think that is going to be helpful, this Chinese and Middle East products.
It seems to me that in the short midterm, it's not going to push hardly down the diesel cracks. I mean, I think that the refining margins, they are going to be pretty good even in this context. I want to clarify, because when we talk about our refining business and so on, I mean, I want to underline that on one hand, we are going to see a decrease of volumes in Europe, in diesel, gasoline in the long term due to regulation and so on. From the other side, I mean, our industrial sites are growing and are going to grow in new products, new volumes, and new margins.
I'm talking about biofuels, I'm talking about advanced biofuels, I'm talking about biojet, I'm talking about synthetic fuels, products linked to hydrogen and so on. I mean, I have a very positive view about the capacity of our industrial complexes to generate new flows, new margins, and new cash flows in the future. Going to the chemical margin, I mean, here I have a bit more negative view in the short term. I think that fourth quarter is not going to be better than the third one in margins. I mean, sometimes I have defined our chemical business as some sort of canary in the mine because it's a business that is worldwide.
It is impacted by many different sectors, household goods, automotive sector, packaging, I mean, very linked to the global demand. I don't like what I'm seeing in these markets worldwide. It seems to me that margins in the first quarter are not going to be better than the third one. Probably, I mean, that is not a commitment, it's an aim, and I think that we are going to be able to do that. Perhaps we are containing in a better way the losses of the business because we are optimizing our operations. We are reducing the production in some of our plants and so on. Perhaps we will be able to manage in a better way the situation in this business.
International margins are not going to be better from my point of view. Thank you, Mehdi.
Thank you, Mehdi. Our next question comes from Matt Lofting at JPMorgan. Please, Matt, go ahead.
Great. Thanks gents for taking the questions. Two follow-ups if I could, please. First, factoring the sort of the points that you talked about earlier in terms of lower balance sheet, and the sort of the backdrop, could you sort of share a sense, at least on a range basis of where you see or-
Excuse me, Matt, I mean, we have a strong noise. May you please repeat your question? We have some noise problems. Excuse me.
Yeah, let me try again, and I'll speak up a little bit. Hopefully, that helps, and keep the questions brief. First-
Sorry, Matt. I think it's a problem with the volume of your device, probably.
Hi. Is that any better?
Yeah, we can understand clearly, more clearly now there.
Okay. Sorry for any interference. I'll keep the questions short. First, can you give us a sense on a range basis, putting together the input that you talked about earlier around where you see at least the organic CapEx range for 2023, factoring in the sort of the inflationary backdrop? Then secondly, I don't think you mentioned Peru earlier in the sort of the discussion. If I understood rightly, according to headlines, the lawsuit in Peru was admitted to court at the end of the summer. What's your latest understanding there? Thank you.
No, thank you, Matt. I mean, I'm not able now to give you any clue about the guidance of CapEx for 2023. I mean, we'll do that in February. I mean, let me say that I think that it's going to be a bit higher than EUR 4 billion. I think that the figure is going to be above this EUR 4 billion I mentioned before. I mean, when I was talking about Peru before, I was talking about the operational problems that Pluspetrol had in the E&P in the Malvinas plant that shut down the capacity we have to export gas for some weeks.
I mean, going to the Peru downstream activities, I mean, first of all, let me say that, I mean, that we are fully committed. We have concluded the containment, the cleaning phases, except in a very specific area that is called the Pasamayo, because the cliffs and so on, the advice of experts is to use a natural recovery process. I mean, all the rest has been concluded in terms of cleaning. Let me say that all that has been done according to the best international practices and supported by the positive view of international institutions. I mean, saying that the total cost, excepting potential fines, has been at around EUR 383 million.
I'm here also including all the social part and the forecast we have for 2023. I think that a relevant part is going to be covered by insurance companies, as 10%, more or less, of this figure, or 13% has been already paid. Going to your question, I mean, we consider that this claim of Indecopi has no merit. That Indecopi has not even the legitimation to go ahead with this claim from a legal point of view.
We are, I mean, preparing all these arguments and all these points to the Peruvian court, and we are, let me say, quite comfortable about the capacity of coping with this claim launched by Indecopi, not only against Repsol, I mean, it was launched against many companies, including, I mean, the company that was behind the sudden movement that was at the origin of this spill, that was the Italian company owning the ship Mare Doricum. Thank you.
Thank you, Matt. Next question comes from Alessandro Pozzi at Mediobanca. Please, Alessandro, go ahead.
Yep. Thank you for taking my questions. Can you hear me? Hello?
Yes, Alessandro, go ahead please.
Yeah. Okay. I couldn't hear you anymore.
Thank you. My first question is on the strategic transactions of this summer. Very similar one, but I'm just wondering whether the end game or the rationale is also the same. Because, of course, in renewables, you have lots of CapEx and strong growth ahead. In upstream, probably not, it's not quite the same. I was wondering if at some point down the line we could see Repsol having a minority stake in upstream, or whether you're happy to increase the disposal and basically selling more than what you have sold so far in your portfolio.
The second question on upstream guidance, if you can give us maybe the new assumptions around maybe Peru, whether you have fixed the operational problems, and also maybe on Libya as well, what you assume for those regions as well. Thank you.
Grazie mille, thank you, Alessandro. I mean, let me split, if you allow me, both disposals because I think that what is behind the renewable disposal was mainly, I mean, the recognition of the capacity of Repsol of building from the very beginning, from scratch, a business, a renewable business, that market was not recognizing the capacity of creating value in this renewable arena. I think that is very important. On top of that, of course, the valuation done by Crédit Agricole Assurances and EIP was fulfilling our expectations, so positive.
Third, what is for me more important, they are not only buying at 25% of this business, they are endorsing, they are supporting, they are going to finance a growth project to achieve 6 GW in operation by 2025 and 20 GW in operation by 2030. That was the rationale behind this entrance of partners in the renewable. In the case of the E&P, the rationale is, I mean, of course, valuation was there, is also to go on transforming the company. I mean, our aim is to allocate and to accelerate the transformation of the company, improving the business portfolio and fulfilling the low carbon target. That is going to help the company to go on transforming the company and accelerating the energy transition of Repsol.
Let me say, I mean, we have a full control of our E&P business. This business is a core business for Repsol. We are ongoing operating this E&P business. We are, of course, currently focusing completing the transaction. What we are going to do in our E&P business is going to be to execute what we commit in our strategic plan, 2021-2025. Repsol and our partner, EIG, we will be fully committed in delivering what we said in our strategic plan. The aim we have is not to go on now disposing assets in the E&P.
The main aim we have now is, I mean, to go on increasing the production, and in this sense, I mean, to fulfilling the commitment we have and the guidance we have of achieving our production as average of 630,000 barrels per day as average in the period 2023-2025. I know that the figure is a bit below we said the last time, but we have to take into account that in the mid-time, we disposed of a part of the Canadian assets. Going to our upstream guidance, the Peru problem that was, as I mentioned, linked to the Malvinas plant is over. Peru is today producing more or less Repsol net 45,000 barrels per day.
Here, main part comes from the Block 57, so the JV we have with CNPC, and the part we have in Camisea is also included in this figure. Going to Libya, I mean, let me say that in Libya our current production net Repsol is more or less at around 30,000 barrels a day. I mean, the production, the average of the year has been a bit below this figure. We also have, I mean, some in August, some production problems that went the production down a bit, but these problems were fully solved at the end of August. It was a problem of reparation of tanks and turbines and so on.
I mean, all that is over. We continue operating in a normal way, and the gross production could be at around 250,000 barrels per day. That fits with this figure of 30,000 barrels per day I mentioned before as net Repsol. I mean, I want to stress the fact that I mean, the fantastic work that the national oil corporation is managing in Libya to remain united and continue working with a great professionalism, trying to maintain the production and the exports of the country, I mean, in the general interest of the Libyan people. We are very happy with them as a partner, and also happy about the current figures in the country.
I mean, we are starting to work together in a very positive way with the new chairman of the national oil company in Libya, strengthening the historical good relationship we have in Repsol with this national company and with this country. Thank you, Alessandro.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you, Alessandro. Next question comes from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies. Please, Giacomo.
I have two questions left. The first is, I just want to go back to sort of your original CapEx plan that you had in your strategic plan. Should we now completely disregard what you had? Because obviously EUR 4 billion this year, EUR 4 billion or even more than EUR 4 billion next year, feels like you're really drifting up to versus that level. Sort of what sort of level of investment should we keep in mind going forward versus what you had in the previous plan?
Within the context of the plan, should we now take the 25%-30% CFFO payout as sort of the payout that you will be looking to pay, not just in 2023, but also in the future years? Second question is around the EIG transaction. Just wanting to know if you can share a bit more details around whether there is any agreement around level of spending or dividend distributions from the entity.
If you can provide a little bit more color in terms of potential use of proceeds once you receive the payment from the divestment, if any of these could be returned back to shareholders, or if it will all be reinvested into the lower carbon business? Thank you.
Oh, thank you, Giacomo. I mean, it's true. I mean, the CapEx plan could be fit in line with the strategic plan in the whole view now, but it's true that in 2021, we invest below the figure committed, clearly below the figure committed in the strategic plan. What we are doing a bit in 2022, and it seems to me that it's going to be clearer, more clear in 2023, is recover the this reduction of CapEx we had in 2021. We have to take into account that comparing with the figures of the strategic plan, I'm always adding 1 billion additional CapEx in the low carbon that we commit in low carbon capital market day we had in October 2021.
Yes, Giacomo, I see here your second question. I note the 25-30% of payout as a reference, taking the cash flow from operations is also for coming years, is also for 2023, and 2024, and 2025, in the period of this strategic plan. That is a commitment that I am taking for next year. Going to the EIG, I mean let me say that we are very aligned in terms of objectives. Of course, we have a company and E&P company that has to be investment grade, that has to be, of course, self-funded.
It's also true that we are fully aligned in terms of creating value in the E&P, and maximizing also the cash generation for our shareholders, so Repsol and EIG. Saying that, I think that we are going to invest, of course, in the projects we have in our hands. The commitments we have in our strategic plan 2021-2025 are going to be the strategic roadmap of this shared company with EIG. We are going to do our best, of course, to maximize the free cash flow we have or we could get from this company. The CapEx plan we had for the period 2021-2025 is now supported and endorsed by Repsol and EIG. Thank you, Giacomo.
Uh, thank-
Thank you.
Thank you, Giacomo. Next question comes from Fernando Abril-Martorell at Alantra. Please, Fernando, go ahead.
Hello. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my call.
Yes, Fernando,
Waiting for Fernando. Next question comes from Henri Patricot at UBS.
Two very quick follow-ups. The first one just on the outlook for the full year on the cash flows. I wanted to check if you could provide us with the underlying macro assumptions that you're using for the fourth quarter, in particular for refining. Then secondly, following up on the production outlook, so flat in the fourth quarter. Then should we expect, given what you were saying about Peru earlier, that we could see a rebound in the first quarter, and then a bit of a gradual increase through the rest of 2023 as you ramp up in the onshore. Thank you.
Thank you, Henry. What we are seeing, I mean, of course, with being very humble and prudent because, I mean, it's easier to forecast the past than the future. In oil price, what we are considering, and we are taking as assumption, is something close to $90 per barrel from now on till the end of the year. In Henry Hub we are taking an assumption close to $5-$6 per million BTUs in United States. What we are taking as assumption in the refining margin could be, I mean, an average for the whole quarter that could be close to $15 per barrel, more or less.
It seems to me that we could capture a premium for that. It's also true that, I mean, taking into account the figure we have now in October, that, as I mentioned before, is 26, perhaps this 15 assumption could be perhaps overcome. Or the real figure could be a bit above this figure. In conversion terms, the conversion utilization percentage is going to be this quarter something in between 95%, 100%. I mean, October we are at 95%. It seems to me that November we could be there or be perhaps a bit above, because we are going to exit from the turnaround at 15, 20 of November. Probably we will have to be in higher figures in December.
Saying that, we don't have any additional significant turnaround this quarter after finishing Tarragona. Even, what I have in mind is that in the first quarter of 2023, the only turnaround program we have is in Bilbao, linked to the hydro treatment plant, that is going to impact our plant and a small unit in Coruña. That is the only thing we have in the first quarter of the year. In Libya, what we are seeing now in October and, I mean, it's a quite a steady production this fourth quarter. Of course, with the information I have, you know, that there are factors that are not in my hands but, I mean, in October we are there, and we don't see anything different.
Going to the production of the first quarter, we are going to have. I mean, we are in the process of the ramp up. Why me? I mean, you could say, "Why are you in the ramp up?" I mean, because we had our water cut higher than expected in some mature wells. That is not, I mean, it is not a concern. The concern is that if we have a water treatment plant that is acting in some way as a bottleneck to treat this water, I mean, all that is impacting the capacity we have to produce.
Probably this quarter we are going to be able to start injecting a part of this water in well, so we are going to try to solve or overcome this problem we have with the water cut. We are going to have four new wells in operation in this quarter. Going to the unconventional, we are growing and we are going to add also production because the Cassia compression unit in Trinidad and Tobago. All in all, we expect in the fourth quarter a higher production in coming two months than the average we had in the third quarter. I mean, in Libya, I mentioned Libya.
I think that I answered all your questions, Henri.
Thank you.
Uh.
Thank you, Henri. Next question comes from Fernando Abril-Martorell at Alantra. Please, Fernando, go ahead.
Hello. Could you hear me?
Yes, perfectly.
Hello? Okay. Okay. Three quick questions. Thank you for the presentation. The first one is a follow-up on production. I was wondering if you have any forecast for what production could be at the very end of this year, just in order to see what the production could be, you know, going forward. The second question is with regards to the working capital. You improved that figure in this quarter with nearly EUR 1 billion working capital inflow, but it is still -EUR 2.9 billion this year. I don't know if you can elaborate on this going forward as well. The third question, if you can provide any update with your Venezuelan operations. Thank you.
Gracias, Fernando. I mean, the production at the end of this year. The production, as I mentioned before, we are going to grow the production this quarter because this effect in Yme, Norway, because the unconventional in Marcellus and Eagle Ford, and because this Cassia compression unit in Trinidad and Tobago. I mean, I'm comfortable giving the 550,000 barrels per day as an average for the whole year. Saying that, it seems to me that that could be the figure in October and November, but in December we could be producing 580,000 barrels per day.
As average over the whole year, I mean, I think that 550,000 barrels per day could be a perhaps the right figure to give you as guidance. Going to the working capital, I mean, as you mentioned, we have reduced the working capital by EUR 1 billion this quarter. I mean, let me say that 50, 55% of this figure comes from volumes. I mean, a better optimization of volumes. 45% because prices, I mean, you could see that in our accounting you have the negative effect of inventories in the net result. This negative impact comes because we have seen a reduction of oil and product prices over the quarter.
It's true that we have a positive, I mean, outflows of working capital in EUR 3 billion this year. That is a mix. It's a mix of more activity. I mean, because Fernando, I want to underline that we have increased by 8% the sales in our service stations over the whole year. We have increased by 18% our sales in the wholesale fuel market in Spain. We have increased our activity in lubricants. We have increased our activity by 30% in aviation. We have increased our activity in specialties. I mean, and that is the working capital we need to operate. An important part of this working capital built over the year comes from this increase of activity.
Another part, more or less EUR 1.2-1.4 billion comes from price. I mean, because the average price now is higher than the prices we had in 2021. We need more money, let me use the term, to build the same capacity of inventories. On top of that, it's true that we have developed, and especially for this year, to have a bit higher inventories, because I think that guaranteeing the security of supply of our products in our main markets, Spain and Portugal, is also a priority for Repsol. It's part of our social responsibility, and it's part of the commitment we have with the Spanish and the Portuguese society, because they are the main markets where we operate in Europe.
We have increased, in this sense, the working capital. Saying that, I can't give you a full clue about the end of the year, but let me say that in case of going on with the current prices, I mean, oil products and gas will improve in EUR 300 million or EUR 400 million, I mean, more inflows. There may be a reduction of the working capital we need to operate in the end of the year. Going forward, we will see something similar, not in the same figures we saw in the third quarter. In Venezuela, I mean, we are operating in a right way.
We are increasing a bit at around 530-540 million cubic feet per day of gas production in Cardón. You know that from May on we start receiving, lifting cargos to pay the bills from the gas we produce in Venezuela. I mean, we think that this increase of production, this effort to optimize the production we have in the country and the payment of bills will continue in the future.
Let me say that is important not only for Repsol, is important of course for the E&P Repsol, is important for the downstream and for the Spanish refineries, because it's giving us the opportunity to increase the utilization of the conversion units, and that is important in terms of supplying the Spanish market. Let me say that is important for Europe, because in a moment where we lack the Russian oil because the conflict and the war we are experiencing in European continent, I mean, to have additional alternatives to supply Europe is also important. Thank you. Gracias.
Thank you, Fernando.
Thank you.
Next question comes from Ignacio Domenech at JB Capital. Please, Ignacio, go ahead.
Questions. My first question is on the mobility business. If you could remind us what was the impact from mobility discounts in Iberia during the third quarter. Also how should we be thinking in Q4 and also going into 2023? My second question is in renewables. I was wondering if you are comfortable with your current portfolio in Iberia or would you rather be looking to accelerate opportunities? If so, maybe the size and the technologies needed to reach your near-term objectives. Thank you very much.
Gracias, Ignacio. I mean, going to your first question, I mean, the impact this quarter of the discounts we are applying in our service stations is around EUR 150 million. We are incorporating EUR 100 million of, let me say, discounts in the P&L of this business this quarter. It's a figure that is very similar to the quarter we had before, the second quarter. All in all, I think that we have invested more than EUR 350 million since the beginning of the policy we launched in March, anticipating our competitors and even government.
In terms of, I think, being close to our clients and the Spanish society in a moment that is very difficult for them, we are trying to push our P&L down close to zero in this mobility business. I mean, we mustn't go to the negative because, I mean, there are competition rules that has to be applied. I think that is our way to show and to demonstrate the social responsibility of Repsol being close to our clients. It's also true that we are taking advantage of this investment, first of all, to increase our market share in Spain. We have increased in almost a 5% market share, we have in this business in Spain.
That is good news because we are preparing the ground, paving the ground for the future. On top of that, we are increasing in a dramatic way the loyalty policy and the digital customers of Repsol. Remember that we had a figure slightly below two million users of our Waylet in February, at the beginning of this year, and now we achieve five million users. I mean, you know that we are the most used app in the Spanish market. On top of that, I mean, that could be anecdotal, but some weeks in April, we were more downloaded in Spain even than TikTok and WhatsApp. I mean, that is a proof of the success of our digital tool.
Going to renewable. I mean, we are happy with our position in Iberia. First of all, we are happy with our position in Iberia. Being happy, I mean, we want to go ahead in this position we have. We are now investing in the construction process of Delta II in Aragón. You know, the large project we call Delta II with 800-830 MW more or less. 250 of them are in operation and we are building the others. We are also building PI in the Castilla, Palencia, Valladolid area, wind projects. We are also investing and building in Sigma. Sigma is in Cádiz, is solar,200- 250.
We have some other projects in Villena, in Valencia, 300 MW more or less. On top of that, I mean, we are trying to increase our pipeline mainly in the wind technology because, I mean, in wind we are seeing a better way to capture price, because you know that the solar energy is producing the whole peninsula at the same time, the same days. In the wind, you have the possibility to capture prices at better hours. In the long term, we are analyzing with our partners of Ørsted a potential possibility to invest in the Spanish shore, in the seas around the Iberian Peninsula, in the offshore technology.
I mean, we are comfortable, that's true, but we want to go on growing in a market where we are happy to be there. Thank you. Gracias, Ignacio.
Thank you, Ignacio. Next question comes from Peter Low at Redburn. Please, Peter, go ahead.
Just one final clarification on the structure of the EIG deal. I think it's been asked a couple of times, but I didn't quite catch the answer. Will the upstream business pay out a dividend to EIG in the coming years once it completes? Is there any policy around that that's been agreed that you're able to share? I'm just trying to understand the cash flow impact once the transaction completes. Thanks.
Yeah. I mean, we have a full alignment between the two partners. We are endorsing both partners the strategic plan. That means that, we have also fully aligned about the target of extracting value, and we are fully aligned about the target of extracting free cash flow of this business. The dividend will be paid after the CapEx, always under the principle of maintaining the debt commitments of this JV we have. I mean, be sure that increasing or having a pretty good free cash flow is going to be a target share by two partners. At 75% of this free cash flow will be of course in the hands of Repsol and at 25% in the hands of EIG.
Thanks.
Thank you, Peter. That was our last question. At this point, I'll bring our third quarter conference call to an end. Thank you very much for your attendance.