The emerging environment remains solid, consolidating the recovery trend initiated in the second half of 2024. In Iberia, activity in our key industrial facilities was negatively impacted by the power outages that affected the entire peninsula in April, reducing utilization rates and preventing us from capturing the positive refining momentum. Against this broader context, Repsol delivers a solid set of results, driven by the recovery of upstream volumes and the continued robustness of its commercial businesses, highlighting once again the resilience of our business model. Second-quarter adjusted income was EUR 702 million, 8% above the first quarter of the year. Cash flow from operations amounted to EUR 1.7 billion, a 50% improvement compared to the first quarter, benefiting by just EUR 0.6 billion working capital inflow, mostly related to inventories and optimization measures.
The accumulated operating cash flow until June was EUR 2.9 billion, 25% higher than in the same period a year ago. That includes a settlement with Sinopec with a neutral contribution from working capital movements in the first half of the year. CapEx amounted to EUR 1.3 billion in the quarter and EUR 2.7 billion in the first six months. Regarding our divestment target, out of the EUR 2 billion objective for 2025, we have announced disposals and asset rotation for a total of EUR 1.2 billion, of which EUR 0.5 billion were cashed in in the first semester. Net CapEx stood at EUR 1.2 billion in the quarter and EUR 2.2 billion accumulated until June. If we had cashed in all the divestments announced this year, net CapEx until June would have stood at EUR 1.5 billion.
Net debt closed at EUR 5.7 billion, a 2% reduction compared to March. Gearing, including leases, was 17.9% by quarter end. Looking ahead, we remain on track to deliver on our main strategic objectives for 2025, according to the priorities defined at the beginning of the year. If back in April we discussed the possibility of an ACID scenario for the rest of the year, the evolution of the main indicators has brought us back to our base case. Regarding our shareholder remuneration objectives, we will distribute 30%-35% of the cash flow from operations generated in 2025 through a combination of cash, dividends, and share buybacks. We have increased the funds dedicated to dividends by 3%, as committed in our strategic plan.
In July, we paid the second dividend of the year for a total DPS of EUR 0.975, equivalent to an 8.3% increase compared to 2024, after factoring in the lower number of shares after the capital reductions executed last year. For 2026, our AGM held in May approved to distribute a first dividend of EUR 0.5 to be paid next January. The 2025 dividend in cash will be complemented by share buybacks for the equivalent of EUR 700 million to reduce capital. Yesterday, we announced a first capital reduction through the redemption of 29 million shares acquired by an equivalent amount of EUR 350 million. A second capital reduction of shares to be acquired for the equivalent of another EUR 350 million will be executed before year-end.
For this purpose, EUR 300 million will be acquired through a new share buyback program to be launched in the coming days and weeks, and the remainder EUR 50 million through the settlement of existing derivatives. Looking at the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators over the last quarter. Brent averaged $68 per barrel, 10% lower compared to the first quarter and 20% below the same quarter last year. The oil price experienced significant volatility, fluctuating within a $20 range over the course of the period. The Henry Hub averaged $3.4 per million BTU, 8% lower quarter over quarter, but significantly, I mean, 79% above the same period in 2024, with market consensus pointing to a rise of U.S. gas pricing towards the end of the year. In refining, Repsol's margin indicator averaged $5.9, 11% higher than in the previous quarter, primarily driven by stronger gasoline spreads.
After declining to around $4 in April, the indicator recovered in May and June, supported by solid demand, low inventories, capacity closures, and delays in some of the new projects coming on stream. Finally, the dollar weakened significantly against the euro to an average of 1.13 in the quarter, and this trend has continued in July, with the euro/dollar trading in the 1.16-1.17 range. Turning to the highlights of the upstream division, our focus remains firmly on value generation and portfolio optimization, supported by the upcoming startup of new strategic projects. Second-quarter adjusted income was EUR 439 million, 4% below the previous quarter and 3% higher than in the same period last year. Year-over-year, the higher gas realization prices, lower production costs, and lower taxes were partially compensated by lower oil prices, lower volumes, and the depreciation of the dollar.
Production averaged 557,000 barrels per day, a 3% increase over the first quarter, thanks to the higher contribution in the U.K., Tunisian Tobacco, Eagle IV, and Libya, that compensated the impact of divestments and natural decline. July's production has stayed at second-quarter levels, putting year-to-date average at around 550,000 barrels per day, at the higher end of our full-year guidance. In Indonesia, as part of our objective to concentrate operations in countries where we have possibilities to grow competitive advantages, we reached an agreement to divest our 24% stake in Corridor for $425 million. This non-operated position contributed around 17,000 barrels per day to our production in the first half of 2025. In Tunisian Tobacco, the Cyprus and Mento projects reached first gas in April and May, respectively, expecting an average 28,000 barrels per day, barrels equivalent, I mean, contribution over the 2026-2028 period.
In the U.K., the closing of the agreement with NEO Energy is expected in coming days, before probably the end of this month, after receiving the approval from the NSTA. The resulting new inventory will become one of the largest independent producers in the U.K. continental shelf, with a projected production of 130,000 barrels per day in 2025, of which 68% is oil. Post-closing, Repsol U.K. production, so from the end of this month on, will increase to around 59,000 barrels equivalent per day, which compares to a production of around 30,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2025 in this legacy position. In unconventionals, we resume drilling activity in the Marcellus, with one operated rig from April to June.
In response to the better gas price outlook, we are preparing the campaign for 2026, expecting to have one rig in Marcellus and one rig in Eagle IV, and around 55% of our 2025 and 2026 North American gas volumes are covered through a zero-cost collar between $3 and $5.5-$6 per million BTU. In the Gulf, the development of León Castile is reaching its final stages with the start of production planned for this third quarter. In Alaska, the development of the first phase of Pikka progresses towards an early startup between December 2025 and January 2026. We expect full ramp-up of production during 2026, reaching a gross capacity of 80,000 barrels per day within the year. Finally, in Venezuela, on the 27th of May, the United States Administration revoked the oil license of several international companies, including Repsol.
Cardón IV continues producing gas, and the management of Petroquiriquile operations has been returned to PDVSA. In industrial, second-quarter adjusted income was EUR 99 million, EUR 189 million below the same quarter in 2024, mainly due to the lower results in refining, chemicals, and trading, partially compensated by a higher contribution of Peruvian wholesale and gas trading. Let me underline this point: the quarter was defined by the consequences of the power blackout that affected the Iberian Peninsula on the 28th of April. Due to unnetworked instability, a blackout disconnected all generation facilities in Spain and Portugal from the grid. This led to the shutdown of all our refineries and petrochemical plants, which had to be restarted progressively. Our teams acted swiftly to restore operations and ensure continuity in supply.
In refining, this blackout, the outage, along with the electricity supply disruptions in Cartagena and Puertollano, had an estimated impact of around EUR 130 million at EBIT level. All these challenges coincide with planned maintenance across several sites, and as a result, utilization of this situation capacity declined to 74%, while conversion units reached 86% of nameplate capacity. The current refining margin or the actual refining margin over the period was, better said, $0.3 below the indicator, reflecting a negative premium due to the issues that affected our operations. Excluding the impact of the blackout and subsequent incidents, the margin premium would have reached $2.1 positive in the quarter. Activity in our refining complexes has normalized in the third quarter. The margin indicator has averaged $9.6 in this quarter, so in July, for. An average of $6.1 year-to-date, benefiting from very healthy product spreads, in particular diesel cracks.
The utilization of distillation has reached 93%-94% this month. Conversion units have run in July at 102%. In addition, margins for renewable diesel have reached levels above $900 per ton as supportive policy developments have stimulated demand and domestic production. Going to the chemical business, Repsol's margin indicator increased by 76% over the first quarter, driven by cheaper naphtha and LPG feedstocks. However, this better margin environment could not be captured due to the lower utilizations and soft demand. The blackout had a negative impact of around EUR 45 million in the operating result. We have to take into account that we are talking about three petrochemical complexes: Tarragona, Puertollano, and Sines in Portugal. Without the impact of the outage, the business would have reached break-even in EBIT terms.
The total estimated impact of the incidents that occurred in our industrial business in the Iberian Peninsula during the second quarter amounts to approximately EUR 175 million. The company is currently assessing legal actions and awaiting the official determination of responsibilities related to the power outage, to the blackout. Finally, in wholesale and gas trading, we have received five LNG cargoes from Calcasieu Pass after the plant started commercial operations in April, ahead of the date assumed in our budget. This factor increases the total number of gas cargoes to be lifted by Repsol in 2025 from 7 to 11, contributing an additional EUR 100 million to the operating result over the whole year. Moving to customer, this division continues to demonstrate a sustained track record of solid quarterly results, built around a competitive multi-energy offering, recently enhanced by a new identity and brand evolution.
Second-quarter adjusted income was EUR 198 million, a 25% increase over the same period in 2024, thanks to a higher contribution in all the business segments. The accumulated EBITDA until June was EUR 0.7 billion, putting us on track to meet the EUR 1.4 billion. Remember that that was the target originally set for 2027 and is going to be captured as early as in 2025, so this year, anticipating two years the target we had in our strategic plan. In mobility, sales of road transportation fuels grew by 16% year over year, mostly due to the anti-fraud measures and control mechanisms adopted in Spain. The solid evolution of sales, now in pre-pandemic levels, challenges projections that anticipated a significant destruction of demand.
The number of service stations offering 100% renewable fuels reached more than 1,200 as of the end of June, and we expect to reach 1,500 by the end of the year. In Spain, 53% of our network already offers multi-energy solutions. The number of digital clients, including wireless users, reached 10.1 million, a 17% increase over the same period in 2024. Finally, in power and gas retail, last quarter, we had 142,000 new net customers, reaching 2.8 million clients by the end of June, consolidating Repsol as the fourth-largest operator in the Spanish electricity market. In low-carbon generation, the adjusted income was EUR 7 million, EUR 6 million higher than a year ago, thanks to the higher result in combined cycles and in renewable generation.
The average full price in Spain was EUR 39 per megawatt-hour, EUR 5 higher than in the same quarter last year, due to a lower share of renewables in the generation mix. The power generated by Repsol reached 2.8 terawatts-hour, 58% higher year-over-year. The execution last quarter of our first asset rotation in the U.S. confirmed the strength and appeal of our portfolio for leading investors. We agreed to divest a 56% stake in a 777 megawatt portfolio for $340 million, including the Fry Solar project in Texas and the Hickaria Solar and Nestorage complex in New Mexico. The portfolio was valued at $795 million, including $60 million in tax equity proceeds. Finally, we reached an agreement to settle the litigation process with Hecate.
Under the terms of the settlement, Repsol will divest its 40% stake in the company, resulting in a negative impact of around EUR 100 million registered against second-quarter results under special items. Looking ahead, our growth in the U.S. will be driven by the platform acquired through Connexgen, mainly focused on onshore wind. Now, regarding our updated outlook to the end of 2025, the guidance for the year remains broadly unchanged. Under a $70 Brent, $4.5 and a $6 refining margin indicator scenario, we expect to generate around EUR 6 billion of cash flow from operations after factoring the impact of the Iberian blackout.
Investment will remain concentrated on the efficient development of our growth projects in the upstream, the transformation of our industrial assets, and let me say optimization of them, growing our power and gas retail business, enhancing the multi-energy offering to our clients, and expanding our low-carbon generation portfolio. In renewable fuels, the construction in Portollano of our second advanced biofuels plant in Spain progresses toward starting up in the first quarter of 2026. Net CapEx is estimated for the year 2025 at around EUR 3.5 billion, subject to the timing of the divestment processes and the execution, but that is the target and the guidance we have now with the better or the best information we have in our hands. In renewables, we are currently working on two new asset rotations expected to be closed before year-end.
One is in Spain for a 700 megawatt wind and solar portfolio, and the other involves the Outpost project in Texas. As discussed before, we maintain our shareholder remuneration commitment for the year. The dividends paid in cash, together with share buybacks for the equivalent of EUR 700 million, will put total distributions at 30%-35% of the cash flow from operations at the higher end of our strategic range. To conclude, despite the material impact of the blackout affecting the Iberian Peninsula, Repsol delivered a resilient performance in the first half of 2025, supported by the recovery of our upstream volumes in the second quarter and the continued strength of the commercial business. We remain confident in delivering our strategic objectives for 2025, growing value for our shareholders in a sustainable way, firmly committed to a profitable transformation and the achievement of our decarbonization goals.
The strength of our business model, built on a sound financial position and a disciplined capital allocation approach, positions us well to manage the uncertainties of the current volatile environment. In industrial, following the normalization of operations in July, we expect to capture in coming quarters the ongoing positive momentum of the refining business. In the upstream, the completion of León Castile and Alaska will enhance future cash flow generation and enable us to normalize CapEx levels from 2026 onward after the significant investments made in 2024 and the first half of 2025. In addition, our exposure to North America could benefit from the relative strength of the handicap driven by new LNG infrastructure, increasing demand, and the potential deregulation of the US energy sector. With this, I will turn it over to Pablo as we move on to the Q&A session. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Josu Jon Imaz. Before opening the Q&A, I would like to ask participants to limit yourselves to a maximum of two questions. If time permits, we will try to cover more in a second round. Of course, the IR team will be happy to assist for any follow-ups afterwards. As usual, I would like the operator to remind us of the process of asking a question. Please go ahead, operator. Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press Star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press Star 11 again. Thank you, operator. Let's get started. Our first question comes from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs.
Thank you very much, and congratulations on the strong result. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on US gas.
The outlook for 2026 looks really good, possibly the best in a decade. I'm just wondering, what would lead you to put more capital there and maybe take on one or two more REITs and increase production into the 2026 timeframe? And then secondly, I was wondering, on your US renewables portfolio, with the changes to the IRA, it looks like there is a big benefit in starting construction early and still getting the full incentives there. Does that mean that effectively CapEx there needs to be brought forward, especially towards 2026 and 2027? Thank you very much.
Grazie mille, Michele. Going to your first question, you are right. For this reason, I mean, you know our point of view. We try to maximize cash. And. Knowing the experience of the sector in the U.S., you know that sometimes when, I mean, prices are okay.
Some additional CapEx efforts, they could have also some impact in the unconventional, in the local level, in terms of inflation and so on. We have to combine both views. Because we have this problem view, I mean, we are increasing our investment approach, our investment effort in the unconventional, mainly for gas production. For that reason, we are going to have one rig in the Marcellus and another one that is going to be put in operation at the end of the year in the Eagle IV. At the same time, as I mentioned before, we are covering, at the moment we have covered through this collar, 55% of our production for the coming two years, 2026, 2027. That is positive in terms of guaranteeing, let me say, some break-even for this operation.
Again, we are following in a very close and accurate way what is happening in the market. We are covering positions. We are increasing our effort, but always under the principle of maximizing the cash of the operation. Free cash flow, let me say, is the king. It has to be the king in the unconventional. I think that, unfortunately, and let me say, I'm not blaming some others because sometimes, I mean, over the last years, we also, we've made these mistakes on that, probably maximizing the concept of net present value and investing hard in these unconventional assets. Sometimes not maximizing the cash concept. Now, I mean, I think that we are quite close to have a right balance in this effort. Going to your second question.
I think that one of the large advantages we have is that the IRA changes in the American Congress at the end of the road were quite reasonable. I mean, it was, I think, that quite right balance in terms of the decision that the American legislators, they took. They did. In this sense, I mean, we have 5 gigawatts of our pipeline that are, let me say, secure to benefit from the tax framework that is supported either through ITCs or PTCs in the framework of the IRA. We were quite comfortable and, let me say, quite happy seeing the result of the American Congress that is supporting the growth we have for coming years in the American renewables arena. That is important because what we are seeing in the market is that the appetite for this renewable power is growing. Demand is growing in the U.S.
The appetite for PPAs is also growing. Prices of PPAs are growing. Everything related to AI and data center on top of more industrial activity. In some places like Texas, also the increase of population in the area is increasing the energy needs. Today, I mean, in practical terms, the only source able to cover this demand growth in the American. Economy is renewable energy because you know the bottleneck, the crunch that they have in terms of providing some other facilities like CCDTs and so on because the difficulties that providers of these capital goods, they have to increase their production and to put in operation these facilities in coming two, three, four years. I think that there is a good momentum in the American market for that.
There is a clear policy from the administration in the U.S., very supportive about producing all kinds of energies for covering the American demand. That is positive. We are there in the U.S. offering all kinds of energies, oil, gas, and power. We think that under the regulation that was approved by the American Congress and that we see in a positive way, we have the supportive framework to maintain our bet to go on investing in the U.S. Grazie mille, Michele. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Michele. Our next questions come from Alastair Syme at Citi.
Hello
. Hello, Alastair.
Oh, sorry.
Hello, Alastair.
Hello. Just one question, actually. Josu Jon Imaz, you want to have made huge progress in the transformation of the upstream business. Congratulations on that. What more do you think you have to do to prepare the business for the 2026 liquidity event?
Has there been any evolution in your thinking of what that liquidity event now might look like? Thank you.
Alastair, you know, because we have asked into your questions, we have talked sometimes about that. I believe in the end of the road, in the liquidity event, we are preparing the company to be fully prepared by the end of the first half of 2026 to be prepared for that. I also am a believer in the journey, as you mentioned, in some, let me say, implicit way in your question.
What we are doing in the way is improving the quality of bubbles, disposing and divesting from areas where the capacity we could have to create value is more limited, investing hard, as we are doing in areas where cash flow from operations per bubble, growth in projects is more evident, and at the same time, increasing the quality in terms of cash flow of the bubbles we produce. I think that, I mean, when you are in a journey like that, you are investing hard. The fruits, they arrive later. Now we are in a moment where things are starting to be more balanced. This summer, we will start producing the León Castile asset from the end of this month on. We will have a new picture in the U.K. with more bubbles, more cash flow from operations coming from the U.K., better quality of bubbles.
Alaska is going to happen in the way we announced in the framework of a strategic plan. We are closer in terms of having, let me say, a good approach of this liquidity event, not only because we are, let me say, preparing all the control mechanisms of the company adapted to the American market, not only because we are advancing in terms of preparing the reporting and so on, we are preparing the company for all that, but also because we have an upstream business that could be better understood by an American investor. On top of that, of course, we are analyzing alternatives. I mean, you know that when we are talking about liquidity event, that is a very broad concept. It could be a direct IPO that probably is not our favorite option, but it is there.
We could talk about the possibility to have a reverse takeover process with an American-listed company, or it could be, let me say, a private investor entering in our business to go on in this transformation pathway. I mean, we are there. We are not in a hurry to do that. In the meantime, in the midst, we are improving the business. That means that things could be easier if we go on improving this business. We are fully aligned in this approach with our partner, EIG, and that is the way to prepare the company. Thank you, Alastair.
Thank you very much.
Thank you very much, Alastair. Our next question comes from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC.
Hi.
Thanks for taking my question. Two, please. This first one is just on Pikka.
There were some contradicting comments on the startup timing, and I think it was related to a weather window or a view on the weather window. Could you just confirm when you expect that to start up and any thoughts on the ramp-up, whether it is late 2025 or mid-2026? And then the second question is just on the gross CapEx as we are thinking about this year and into next year. You have got a number of projects in the upstream that are rolling off, some kind of M&A activity as well. And then I guess any comments on low carbon. I am just trying to get a sense of what we should expect for gross CapEx in 2026. Thank you.
Thank you, Biraj.
I mean, going to Pikka first, we have a full alignment in terms of the operational approach, in terms of dialogue with our Santos partner that is the operator. In case of doubt, I mean, I underline that Santos has always the last word on the approach because, I mean, they are good operators in the area. I had the opportunity, even in physical terms, last month to visit our offices and Santos team operating the asset in Alaska. It was at the beginning of June. At that time, we still had, and they had, some kind of concerns related to the level of the Mackenzie River that you know that it was needed to transport all. Some parts of the modules from the area of Alberta, towards the North Slope by the river.
I mean, in case of not having the adequate levels, the alternative was more complex, through the Canadian western coast, delaying three months the project. I think today, I mean, that is not, let me say, rocket science, but I think that we are in the mainstream scenario, and the mainstream scenario could be, I mean, the startup, something in between the end of December and the end of January. I mean, in those weeks. I mean, of course, there are enough projects that are this complex like that. You could always have some days, let me say, of delays and so on. I mean, for me, the mainstream scenario is that in the call of the full-year results in February, I mean, we were probably talking that Alaska is producing oil. Going to the ramp-up, it's the best approach.
In a direct way, I mean, in terms of connecting, we will start producing in gross terms 25,000-27,000 barrels a day. And probably towards summer 2026, we will be close to the 80,000 barrels a day of production. We have, and there is a plan to go on connecting wells to sustain, to maintain this production. What is more important, probably it's too early to talk about that, but I mean, there are plenty of resources in the area to be developed. There is a Pikka 2 that, I mean, of course, we are not going to enter in developing the full engineering or thinking about FIDs of Pikka 2 before knowing in an accurate way how the wells are performing in Pikka 1 and so on.
There are more areas, and the perception I have is that Alaska is going to push hard in positive terms in the process of transforming the E&P of Repsol. Going to the gross CapEx, the better figures we could have today is that in 2026, the E&P business is going to reduce in a figure equivalent to EUR 500 million a year, the CapEx effort because, I mean, due to the projects coming on stream in 2025, La Pa, León, Castile, and taking into account that probably because this ramp-up, because these new connections of wells and so on, Pikka is going to require some CapEx effort in 2026. I think that the best approach we could have today is a reduction of EUR 500 million of the gross CapEx in this business, in the CapEx, sorry, in this business in 2026.
Going to the net CapEx of the company, remember when we presented the strategic plan in February last year in 2024, the range for the net CapEx was something between EUR 1.6 billion to EUR 1.9 billion. I mean, today, my best estimation is that we are going to be in the strategic plan period in the range 1.6-1.7. That is going to be the range we are going to be there. If you take into account that combining the figures of last year with the figures of this year. In net CapEx terms with the indication of EUR 3.5 billion, I mentioned before, we will be at around EUR 9.2 billion, EUR 9.3 billion of net CapEx combining 2024, 2025. I mean, you could approach the figure of EUR 7 billion of net CapEx, roughly speaking. For the period 2026, 2027.
All in all, the today estimation is a net CapEx of EUR 16 billion-EUR 17 billion for the period. What is behind this figure? I mean, mainly, there is, as I mentioned in the last call, some confirmation that we are going to delay a bit and reduce the intensity of investment in terms of hydrogen megawatts in our refineries to a figure that is going to be important, that is going to be close to 600-700 megawatts by 2030, combining electrolyzers and 200-250 coming from biogas that is going to be transforming the reformers of our refineries. On top of that, you know that we also reduced the effort in the renewable fuel site outside the Iberian Peninsula, concentrated our efforts in Spain and Portugal. You know that we also, I mean, the most accurate figure in terms of gigawatts in operation by 2027 was also reduced.
That is behind this reduction of net CapEx. The best estimation we have is EUR 16 billion-EUR 17 billion for the period 2024-2027.
Thank you, Biraj.
Thank you very much, Biraj. Our next question comes from Alejandro Vigil at Banco Santander.
Yes. Hello. Thank you for taking my questions. The first question is about the very strong performance of the customer's business. If you can give us an indication, what should we expect in the future after almost delivering the 2027 target this year and the underlying drivers of this very, very strong performance? The second reason is about the European diesel market. What do you think about what's driving this very strong momentum and if you think it could continue during the coming months? Thank you.
Gracias, Alejandro, y buenos días. I mean, let me start with, I mean, I thought I had those days.
You know the Spanish flight space operator, ENAIRE, published last year a figure showing that in 2024 in Spain was a record year for the aviation sector. I mean, they control or manage 2.35 million flight operations in Spain in 2024. When you analyze the figures of this organism, ENAIRE, at the end of June, we are overcoming in 5.9% the record of 2024. That means that, I mean, we are experiencing in this part of Europe, in Spain and Portugal, an extraordinary growth of services, tourism, and so on. Spain is going to receive 100 million tourists this year, only overcome by. France in global terms in terms of number of visitors and by the U.S., I mean, as a second country, Spain, in terms of revenues. That means that, for instance, the jet, middle distillate consumption is growing. That is supporting our operation.
When you analyze and you see our roads, the activity related to services, tourism, economy, the changes in economy after the pandemic with more online sales, that means more trucks, more vans. I mean, all that is explaining, let me say, in the fundamentals, what is happening in Spain and in Portugal and in the fuel business. On top of that, if you analyze our sales compared with 2024, the growth has been at around 16% year, comparing year to year in terms of volumes. I mean, that is not only economic activity. It is also related to the anti-fraud measures. I mean, the figures of the last two, three years were highly contaminated by this illegal activity.
Let me say that, of course, that is not fully over, but the Spanish authorities are fully committed to cope with this problem, and they are taking real measures to attack this fraud. On top of that, you have, I mean, gasoline market in Europe is booming. It is okay. Margins are okay. Diesel, because a middle distillate, because I mentioned the reasons I mentioned before, Alejandro, they are also okay. On top of that, we are supported by these 24 million customers we have in the Iberian Peninsula. We are entering in a successful way in new businesses. For instance, the power and gas retail business. We are approaching the figure of 3 million customers. This year, we are going to achieve 3 million customers in this business. That is, let me say, a material figure. With a positive, high EBITDA, positive free cash flow.
We are growing, making cash for the company, the non-oil business. If you are a Spanish person, you could visit our service station. You could see that more and more this premium approach in terms of position in the market of Repsol has improved a lot over these years. All that is explaining in fundamental terms the results. Of course, we could see, as always in business, ups and downs in coming quarters, but there are fundamental reasons for that. No doubt that taking into account that, we will increase the targets of our customer business for coming years because we have to go on growing and improving.
Remember that, I mean, the figure I have in mind, probably I am wrong, but in 2016, this business had an EBITDA at around EUR 750 million a year, roughly speaking, and the perception of the market was that this business was declining. This year, we are going to have EUR 1.4 billion in terms of EBITDA and growing. Let me say that we have hidden business because we always talk about. Oil brand, Henry Hub, refining margin, and it's okay because they are drivers of our business. But we have some kind of hidden beauty here in Repsol that is growing and has already an EBITDA of EUR 1.4 billion. Thank you, Alejandro. Gracias.
Thank you.
Yeah. And let me say, going to the diesel, what is happening also in Europe?
Excuse me, because I was fully excited, let me joke, talking about what is happening in the Spanish market. I mean, first, as I mentioned before, there is a fundamental in terms of consumption in the market. On top of that, you have low inventories in Europe. You have the new maritime regulation coming from IMO from the ECA zones impacting in the Mediterranean. That is shifting volumes from fuel oil to diesel. It's increasing demand. On top of that, you also have the momentum in the market in terms of fleet costs and so on that is giving a more competitive position to European producers for the European market, reducing the competitiveness of some other areas of the world. I don't know, India, Middle East, and so on.
My perception, Alejandro, is also that all this sound around sanctions on Russia is also starting to be discounted to impact the European diesel market and probably is going to have a higher effect in coming months. Thank you. Gracias.
Thank you, Alejandro. Our next question comes from Irene Himona from West End Société Générale.
Thank you very much and congratulations on the quarter. My first question is on trading within the industrial division. It remains very strong. It's certainly increased sequentially. It's the second largest contributor to division EBITDA. Some of your peers have mentioned reducing trading positions due to unpredictable geopolitical volatility. I wanted to ask if you can talk a little bit around your trading strategies in this period of, let's say, enhanced uncertainty. The second question, on your 2026 planned E&P listing.
Can you please give us a sense of the % interest which you expect Repsol will retain in the listed entity, please? Thank you.
Thank you, Irene. I mean, in structural terms, our trading is growing. Why it's growing? Because you know, because you are following and you have followed Repsol over these last years, and you know that at the very beginning, our trading was the supplier of our refining business, not more. More and more, this business started to work, taking some other positions, started working with the biofuels, and these new fuels enter in providing, let me say, service to the E&P business of Repsol, taking volumes, taking global positions in Singapore, Houston, and Europe, and so on. There is a natural growth in this trading.
Let me also include, in some way, the gas trading in this equation because you know that because the long positions we have, mainly the Gulf of Mexico in America, in terms of LNG, Calcassier, Sabine Pass. Cameron, and so on. We are increasing our exposure. We have strong short positions in the Iberian Peninsula. This business is also growing. All in all, our EBITDA is going to be close to, I mean, last year, this year, to around, I figure I have in mind, it's around EUR 1 billion, close to EUR 1 billion. I mean, saying that, we have a very limited appetite in our liquid trading business. That means that if, I mean, we try to avoid volatility.
If we, let me say, took positions in a part of the world and we have to supply a different quality in other parts of the world, we try to be, or to reduce to zero our exposure to main figures like Brent, like general markers of this product. We try to go to the delta in terms of qualities of products, in terms of geographies, in terms of playing with the time that could be, in some way, opening an arbitrage opportunity for our trading business. We have a very limited trading activity. Because this approach we have, I think that this uncertain period is not closing any opportunity to the trading activities we have in our hands. For that reason, we could expect a trading activity that could be, in some way, similar to some other periods. I said before, with that asset base that is growing.
Going to the plans for the upstream listing, I mean, today, a clear approach we have is that we want to retain a minimum of 51% in this upstream business and maintaining the control of the company. That is today the framework, or that is better said, the framework we have in this liquidity event approach we have. Thank you, Irene.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Irene. Our next question comes from Pedro Alves from CaixaBank.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one on the asset rotations plan for the remaining of the year. I think you have assets to be sold in Spain and the U.S., as you explained.
Perhaps if you can give us some outlook on how do you see the asset rotation market, not only from the project you have already launched to be sold, but also looking ahead for the remaining years? We have seen some more cautious comments from some of the utility names, but also other players, where they try to sell assets, and particularly in the U.S. Can you give us some comfort here, or at least what's your confidence in keeping these asset rotation plans in renewables for the remaining years to keep your total net CapEx, as you said, in the EUR 16 billion-EUR 17 billion over the plan, and therefore keep sustaining your distributions to shareholders? The second question is on refining margins.
If you can give us an update on the latest levels that you are seeing, particularly in this month of July, and given the current balances in Europe, what's your outlook for the remainder of the driving season? Thank you.
Mucho obligado, Pedro. I mean, going to your first question. Going to the cash-in. Yesterday, we had the cash-in coming from Fry and Hickaria. But as I mentioned before, that was announced in the second quarter, but the cash-in arrived yesterday. That is going to be in the third quarter. Going to the projects that are now on track. I'm going to start, theoretically, by the most difficult part of the equation, that is the U.S. You perfectly know, Pedro, the interest rates in the U.S. that are making things more difficult than they were two, three years ago.
Good news is that we are in the process of disposing of the Outpost project. The talks are quite advanced for that. As I mentioned in the last call, the transaction of what we call Pecos, that was the addition of Fry and Hickaria, was not an easy game. The advantage of Outpost is that the PPA is better than the PPA we had in Fry. Fry was lower because our first project was developed after the pandemic, in a period where the PPAs were lower. Outpost has a PPA higher than Fry. Pennington, that is the next one, is going to have a PPA significantly higher than Outpost. Things are improving in the American market. For that reason, and because we are also in talks, we have the perception that things are going to go in the right direction in terms of the asset rotation of Outpost.
On top of that, because the fiscal framework of this project, we are going to have a cash-in in this year, with the asset rotation of Outpost, that is going to be at around $200 million as equivalent of ITC, or let me say, the tax direct impact supporting the investment. We expect to have the cash coming from the rotation of Outpost, plus $200 million coming from the fiscal support to this project. Things are not ever easy, but I think that it's going to be better than the expectation we had for Fry that was closed on April 28. We closed that transaction, the blackout day. Going to Spain, I think that, again, the market is not easy, but it's significantly better than the position the American market has. We have had our last experience. GAIO happened at the beginning of this year, 2025.
It was okay in terms of the multiples paid by the investor. You know that, I mean, the solar projects, they could have a bit more difficulties in Spain. The large advantage, the great advantage of. This new basket of assets, 700 megawatts, is that a figure close to 500 are wind. So, you know that new wind projects in Spain are quite a scarce resource. The great advantage of wind is that the production and the capacity to capture prices is more extended or more flat. Not exactly flat, but, I mean, with a better distribution over the whole day. Taking into account the structure of the Spanish pool price and wholesale market, the capacity to have returns is clear in this kind of project.
I mean, we'll have to work in this direction, but today, we are quite comfortable about the possibility to go on with these two rotations. Going to the refining margins, I mean, you know, and let me say that it's not important only to have high margins, but it's also important to be producing because in the second quarter, the problem we have, unfortunately, because this outage, this blackout, is that our capacity to produce was reduced. Going to the most important thing, what is happening in operational terms. First, the program turnarounds of the refineries, most of them were done in the first half of the year. We still have to maintain for some days the ISOMAX unit in Tarragona this second half of the year.
We also have a turnaround in Cartagena that is going to impact one of the three distillation towers, some hydroexfoliation units, and probably some days, the hydrocracker because the supply could be a bit reduced because the maintenance impacting in these units. Taking into account our whole system, the best news is that the system is going to be working at a high level of distillation over the year. If we go to the current figures, this quarter, as I mentioned before, we have a distillation utilization rate of 93% over the whole month and 102% the conversion units. We are capturing these margins. Going to what is happening in this third quarter, the average as of today in our system is at $96 a barrel. The forecast for the next month is initially for healthy refining margins.
I mentioned some reasons for that, talking about demand, jet, gasoline, diesel, the potential impact of Russian sanctions, and so on. Let me say that on the supply side, new refining projects in the Atlantic Basin continue to face delays, Dangote in Nigeria, Olmeca in Mexico. On top of that, closures in Europe this year are taking place, Vessell in Germany, Grangemouth in the U.K. Going to the U.S., Houston. Additionally, there are some concerns in the market affecting the Lindsey refinery in the U.K. Geopolitical tensions are also there that, in some way, from time to time, they could impact the middle distillates market. For that reason, markets are. Good, and we have a good perception of markets for coming months. Thank you. Obrigado, Pedro.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Pedro. Our next question comes from Henri Patricot at UBS.
Yes,
hello, everyone. Thank you for the update.
Two questions, please. The first one, explaining industrial, but on the chemical side, we also saw quite a nice improvement in the indicator in the second quarter, but you could not capture that. I wanted to check whether you continue to see these improvements in the third quarter and whether we could expect to see the chemicals a bit back into your positive territory in the second half. Then secondly, on the upstream side, there was a nice increase in production in the second quarter, Europe, Africa. You mentioned Libya and New Wales there. Can you give us an update on what you see in terms of production potential in Libya? You previously talked about maybe some growth, so I just want to get an update on the developments in that country. Thank you.
Merci, Henri. Going to your first question.
I mean, I am going to be clear about that. The crisis in the chemical business is not over. That is my first, let me say, highlight. It is true that things are improving in the right direction. As you said, and as I mentioned before, without the outage effect, we will be close to the break-even in EBIT terms this quarter. There are still some fundamental concerns in this chemical business. Flat demand is there, high energy cost in Europe. What we are doing is, and the results of this quarter are a good example of that, is now focusing on reducing cost, pushing break-evens down, and increasing the margin through a higher differentiation for products. We are implementing technical upgrades that are improving the competitiveness in our operations.
We are taking a lot of measures that I could explain, but I do not want to bore you, in terms of reducing the break-even, and these measures are going to have, by the end of this year, combining the whole effect over the year, an impact of EUR 68 million in terms of costs, generally speaking. What is important is that new margins are going to come next year, and new margins are going to come from Sines. Sines in the second quarter of 2026 is going to add, in an ACED scenario, EUR 80-EUR 85 million of new EBITDA. In, let me say, average scenario, a figure of EUR 130-EUR 135 million of EBITDA. That is positive.
On top of that, we are going to have next year also a high molecular weight polyethylene plant in Puertollano, focused on producing polyethylene for very specialized applications, defense and so on included, that is going to add new margins to the business. We are not, let me say, waiting for a margins improvement. It's true that margins are improving a bit, but that is not going to change dramatically from suddenly. In the midst, we are reducing costs, and we are improving margins. I'm sure that quarter after quarter, this effect is going to be seen. If we go to Libya, I mean, things, again, I think that the country is improving in social, political, security terms, the position of the country year after year, that is important.
I think that, I mean, we have to underline the effort that the country is doing, the effort that, I mean, for instance, in terms of security. We have seen over the last years that the army of Libya, led by Mr. Haftar, has had a crucial role in combating terrorism in the country, in increasing the security in the country, improving the position and the stability of the country. All that has a clear reflect on the ground. Going to the production, again, production in this quarter reached a maximum of 307,000 barrels a day. When we took the Repsol stake of this production, we have been in 43,000 barrels a day net. That is the fruit of what happened last year in terms of increasing production with new wells.
During this drilling campaign in progress in 2025, 12 new wells were restored in the first quarter and in the second quarter. We are going to see new wells connected in coming months. All in all, the production is going to be increasing gross terms in 12,000 barrels a day. That probably could increase the Repsol production in 1,500-2,000 barrels a day. We are going more things in Libya. I mean, the exploration campaign in Libya started in December. We had the Nasser well that was a dry well. Now we are fully focused in a second well that has been exploited in June. On top of that, we are increasing our bet in this country. A second rig has been contracted to fulfill the remaining exploration commitments, including potential early development in the Waha area. We rely on the country.
We rely on the increase of security in the country. We are increasing our production there, and we are betting for future projects in Libya. Merci, Henri.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Henri. Our next question comes from Libya Red for Albarglace.
Thank you. Good afternoon. Two questions, if I could. The first one, just on refining margins and the guidance. Just given everything you said about the refining margins, where they are at the moment, can I just ask, why not take the guidance higher for those refining margins and just that impact on cash flow from operations? I think probably a little bit linked to that, if we could talk about the buyback. Obviously, your share price has been incredibly strong this year. You're one of the best-performing European stocks. Does that play into how you start to think about the buyback going forward as well? Thanks.
Thank you, Linda. I understand your point. But let me say that part of my duty is to be always present. I prefer to stay there because, I mean, you perfectly know that three months ago, we were in this—I mean, you were in your analyst in the micro, and I was in this room with my team. We were talking about an ACED scenario, the possibility to have $4 a barrel in terms of refining margin, a drop in the Brent prices, an ACED scenario in terms of—and we are taking, I mean, taking advantage of that opportunity. We are increasing the efficiency of many of our businesses and so on because, I mean, these kind of levers are positive to do this kind of cleaning in some way of more efficiency in our operations. I can't change in a dramatic way 180 degrees in three months.
I think that volatility is still there. The clouds in the world economy are not over. It's true that we have a better expectation related to refining margins. The average as of today is $6.1 a barrel over the whole year. We are already above this guidance we have for the whole year. Probably taking into account what is happening now in the market, we are going to be in a higher refining margin than expected over the whole year. I mean, the dollar-euro exchange rate is there. Potential change in the global economy is there. Let me say I have, and that is crystal clear, a more positive approach than I had in April. I'm quite confident about the EUR 6 billion of guidance for the cash flow from operation of the year. I don't know if we are going to have potential upsides there.
But taking into account all the volatility we are seeing in the market, I prefer to be present in Libya. I'm sure that in case of seeing that what you are saying is true, and probably could be, I mean, I'm not, let me say, challenging your point. I take your point. Probably you are right. I prefer to wait a bit. I'm sure that we'll have the opportunity to talk about that in coming calls. Thank you, Libya.
Thank you very much, Libya. Now our next question comes from Peter Lowe at Redburn (Europe) Limited.
Hi, yeah, thanks. Just one question. You said in the presentation you expected to take your first hydrogen FIDs in the second half of the year. I was wondering if you could give some color as to what sort of returns you expect on those projects.
Perhaps more importantly, what's the mechanism through which you make that return? Is there some form of direct government subsidy, or how does it work? Any color on that would be helpful. Thanks.
Thank you, Peter. We are going to have, probably in the third or fourth quarter, two FIDs. One of them related to 100 megawatts of an electrolyzer in Cartagena. 100%, or sorry, 100 megawatts of installed capacity of electrolyzer in Petronor, Bilbao. In the first half of 2026, the third one in Tarragona, probably 100-150 megawatts of electrolyzer. With these three electrolyzers plus the biogas produced using, I mean, biomethane—biogas and biomethane is the same ecosystem—I mean, this biogas reform in our refineries and producing hydrogen, we will be in this figure of 600 megawatts, roughly speaking, I mentioned before. What is this green hydrogen?
Producing an electrolyzer competing in price with hydrogen we produce today using gas, mineral gas in our refineries? Not at all. That is going to be more expensive. The competitiveness of this hydrogen is not based in this competition with the green hydrogen. It's based on regulation. Regulations said today that the 1% of the sales we have in the Spanish market, on the European market, but in this case, in the Spanish market, by 2030, they have to contain 1% of renewable fuels with non-biological origin. The most competitive way today existing in technical terms to produce this renewable fuel with non-biological fuel is this hydrogen. Based on this, let me say, market—not appetite, market needs to fulfill this regulatory mandate—we are seeing the economics, the returns of these electrolyzers, evolve the 10% of return, so in that double digit.
That is, let me say, the pillar, the fundamentals of these economic returns. You also have to take into account, I mean, that is, I mean, additional, more and more, that for these three electrolyzers, we are going to have a strong support coming from European innovation funds in the case of Tarragona, or by the subsidy approved to accelerate new technologies in terms of decarbonization by the Spanish Ecologic Transition Ministry. These three electrolyzers, they have the support that in CapEx terms could be, roughly speaking, EUR 1.3-1.4 million per megawatt of electrolyzer. All in all, that is going to support the economics of these projects.
It's not only subsidies because, let me say, even, I mean, subsidies are helping, of course, but the main driver is not subsidy because when you take, I mean, I'm not going to enter too much time on that, but when you take the hydrogen and the cost structure, 75% of the cost is OpEx in terms of energy, I mean, power. 20% is CapEx and 5% are additional OpEx. With many subsidies over the 20%, you can't have a competitive installation if you don't have something additional. The main driver is the regulatory mandate that is supporting this return. Thank you, Peter. T
hanks.
Thank you very much, Peter. Our next question comes from Ignacio Domenech at JB Capital Markets.
Hello. Just thank you for the presentation and for taking my questions. The first one is from the evolution of net debt.
I wanted to get your view on, particularly after the closing in the third quarter of the transaction in the U.K. What are the moving parts there and what's your best guess we should end up 2025, okay, in terms of net debt? And my second question is related to, or a follow-up on, hydrogen. We are seeing other peers here in Spain that are also planning to back up with their FID in hydrogen. So I want to get your view on the deployment of this technology in Spain and in the medium or long term, if you think you could actually be exporting the molecule. That's my question. Thank you.
Gracias, Ignacio. Vamos a ver. Oh, sorry. So going to your question about net debt. What we are seeing in general terms is an unstable net debt over this year.
As you mentioned, there is a perimeter change, and this perimeter change is going to come because of the integration of the U.K. There is no change in terms of commitments in our balance sheet, but due to the specificity of this transaction, what we are going to see is that a part of the commitment that is already reflected in our balance sheet related to the commissioning commitments for the future is going to be, from now on, a financial commitment instead of a commissioning commitment. The commitment is there, but being a financial commitment is going to be part of the net debt. This figure today, the best approach we have is that it's going to be close to EUR 1.2 billion, roughly speaking. EUR 1.25 billion, roughly speaking. That is going to be a consequence of the change of the perimeter.
There is not any additional, let me say, financial commitment. It is, let me say, rewriting in some way. We are changing in the balance sheet the commissioning commitment by a financial commitment. On top of that, we also have to say that because of this transaction, we are going to have a delta, an increase of EBITDA of $700 million, roughly speaking, coming from the U.K. We are going to have an increase in terms of free cash flow also coming from, in annual terms, I mean, because you know that the closing is going to be done next week. I'm talking in annual terms, we are going to have $740 million of EBITDA, and we are going to have $320 million of free cash flow.
That is going to be, let me say, the consequence in terms of perimeter of the financial commitments on one side, not increasing the debt, but changing the figure in the balance sheet. On top of that, we are going to have a new EBITDA that is going to be higher than $700 million. Million and this free cash flow that probably is going to be higher than $320 million. In yearly terms. Going to your second question, Ignacio. I mean. That is a very, let me say, subjective. Discussion and almost an academic discussion. I have my personal point of view on that. But. I'm not saying that I'm right. But when you have. I mean, today in Spain, we have, roughly speaking, 600,000 tons a year of hydrogen consumption in the whole Spanish economy. Mainly in the refining business. Plus. Fertilizers. A tiny part.
And Repsol is consuming 360,000 tons a year of hydrogen today. So with these 600 megawatts, roughly speaking, I mean, we could be able to produce from our 360,000 tons a year, perhaps 80,000-85,000 tons a year. So. One-fourth of the total consumption that Repsol has. I mean, it seems to me, but that is common sense, that when you have a potential consumer in your own industrial plant in your own country. I mean, probably the most efficient way to treat this hydrogen. Now, I'm not talking about the future, of course. Probably things are going to evolve. But today, it's not going to be from our side. Perhaps some others, they have some other strategies, and it could be nice. But in our case, exporting molecules is not probably our best business.
I mean, because you could understand that if we have a consumption there, it will be easier and cheaper decarbonizing what we have in industrial terms in Spain, than exporting molecules, I don't know, to Germany, for instance. That could happen in the future, of course, but our effort is going to be fully focused on that. Gracias, Ignacio.
Gracias.
Thank you very much, Ignacio. Our next question comes from Matt Loftin at JP Morgan.
Hi. Thanks all for the update. Appreciate it. Two quick ones, if I could. Some of my questions have been asked already. I wanted to just first see if you could share how you see the business implications from here of the situation with Venezuela upstream, also the materiality of the impact on the refining margin premium through light heavy spreads, etc., as you look forward.
I noticed Repsol referred to having taken the credit risk provision with the Q2 results. And then second, I just wanted to come back to the full-year cash flow guidance. I noticed that you marked a market, not refining, but oil and Henry Hub, which looked like the changes that are somewhat offset there. Could you just expand on the factors that caused you to move to the low end of the sort of the prior range in terms of the $6 billion? How much of that perhaps related to the Iberian blackout during the second quarter and also maybe euro/dollar remarks versus underlying factors? Thanks.
Thank you, Matt. Going to your first question, I mean. I mean, Repsol always complies and will comply with all laws and regulations. National and international. Applicable to our operations in Venezuela. You know that.
We had the winding down process in May of our license. But we maintain our presence in Venezuela. At the same time, we are maintaining a very constructive and transparent dialogue with the U.S. administration. In a very open way. To ensure. Some kind of a stable framework for our activities. That includes. A viable. Mechanism for monetizing the production. We maintain in Venezuela because we are producing gas there in Carbon. We have, of course, the estate that is now, as I mentioned before, operated by PDVSA of the JB Impetro Kirikiri. At the same time, of course, we maintain a very transparent dialogue also in the country because we are supplying gas for the domestic market. All in all, taking into account that now we are not monetizing this production, but we have an open way and an open hope to find some kind of.
A framework in this open dialogue we have with the American administration to monetize. This production. We prefer, in accounting terms, to be present. For that reason, we have reduced the total exposure of Venezuela. To. $360-$370 million, roughly speaking, in our books. About the refining margin premium impact, negligible. I mean, because the situation we are seeing in the market now. Is that the supply of heavy oil is quite guaranteed in the Atlantic Basin. Because of that reason, I mean, we have been able, as I mentioned before, with any cargo coming from Venezuela in the second quarter and decoupling the fact of the outage in Spain. We have. A premium of $2.1 a barrel in our refining system. That is the best proof that there is no visible impact on our refining system. There is, of course, an impact in the upstream business.
The impact in the upstream business is that, I mean, the cash flow from operations coming from Venezuela that we had last year is not going to be this year. From, better said, from June on in. Our accounts. When I mentioned these EUR 6 billion of guidance, of course, I'm taking. Into account this figure. For that reason, we have this credit risk provision in the second quarter of the year. Going to the cash flow full-year guidance. I mean, remember that. In April, we had a different situation. In April. March, April, we have a negative impact in terms of. Our guidance of refining margin, crude oil, and so on that were lower than expected. The whole year is reflecting also this experience we had in March and April. On top of that, we have the power outage effect close to EUR 0.2 billion.
That, of course, is going to be and is included in the guidance for the whole year. We have this working capital increase effect of Venezuela you mentioned in your first question is also included in this EUR 6 billion target for the whole year. There are, of course, potential upsides, yes. I mean, as I mentioned. Lydia was pointing out before, and I support in some way her approach. We could have an upside coming from the refining margin from the Henry Hub. For that reason, I mean, all in all, we are quite comfortable with these EUR 6 billion of cash flow from operations for the whole year. Thank you, Matt.
Thank you, Matt. Our next question comes from Fernando Abril at Alantra.
Hello. Hello, Josu Jon. And Tim, thank you very much. Only one question. On renewables, I have seen power prices have gone up double-digit.
Your electricity generation have also jumped, I do not know, 50% plus. Yet the EBITDA in the low-carbon segment did not grow in the quarter. I do not know if you could please elaborate on the drivers behind this. And more broadly, what EBITDA contribution should we expect from this business in the near term? I recall you previously had a target in mind. I do not know if you have any target also for the next few years. Thank you. Thank you. Gracias, Fernando. I mean, we are growing and we are scaling up in our renewable power business. I think, let me say, probably the best good news coming from this business this year is going to be from the financial side. Probably the year I am targeting. I am not committing this what I am going to say now, but I am targeting this objective.
I think that we are going to be close to this target this year. This business is going to be close to cash neutrality 2025. That is important. That means that this business is going and it is growing and it is going to be close to cash neutrality in 2025, combining cash flow from operations plus investments plus rotation. I know that this figure is going to be probably favorized by the lag effect of some rotations coming from 2024 investments. I know that. What I am saying is in some way tricky, let me use the term, but that is very clear and that is a clear trend. Probably this business, with some strong growth, is going to be self-financed in two, three years in a recurring way. That is the first good financial news coming from the low-carbon business.
Saying that, I mean, in 2025, we are going to have an EBITDA close to EUR 200 million in 2025. We have to take into account that by 2027, we are going to have an EBITDA above EUR 400 million in this business. Probably what you are reading, and you are right, Fernando, is that in the second quarter, there are probably an effect that it could be something lower due to the consolidation in the accounting of the company. So that could be. That could be. I'm not sure about that. I'm going to check it. Probably that could be the effect. In any case, EUR 200 million in 2025, and we expect EUR 400 million in 2027. Thank you. Gracias, Fernando. Thank you. Thank you, Fernando. Our next question comes from Matt Smith at BofA Securities. Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions.
The first one was back to NeoNext, but thanks for all the detail that you ran through during the questions there. My question on NeoNext was simply a clarification whether you've included the impact of that deal close, which is imminent, within your full-year guidance, such as the upgraded production outlook. That was the first. The second, also sort of production-related, but bigger picture, thinking about 2026, very strong production in the first half, contribution of additional barrels from NeoNext, startups of several projects. How much higher could production run in 2026 versus 2025, please? Thank you. Thank you, Matt. I mean, your first question, the answer is yes. We are including U.K. in the full-year guidance, of course, from now on or from August on. Going to your second question, we are going to be something in between 575,000-590,000 barrels a day in 2026.
That means that we are going to increase something in between 25,000-40,000 barrels a day of production next year. We will be able probably in the guidance for the year, at the end of the year, to give you a more accurate figure. But the best approach I have today is, broadly speaking, is there. Thank you, Matt. Thank you. Thank you very much, Matt. Our next question comes from Paul Redman at BNP Paribas Exane. Hi, and thank you very much for your time. Just two questions, please. The first one's just a confirmation on your guidance for net CapEx in 2026 and 2027, how much divestment are you including in that guidance? The second one is just on the distributions. You're guiding to 30%-35%, and you're paying a buyback of EUR 700 million. Is the moving part on that guidance the macro environment, essentially?
You're guiding EUR 6 billion of cash flow from operations, whether that's higher or low will tell you whether you're at the top or the bottom of that range. Or is there any other movement that might happen on distributions from here? Thank you. Thank you, Paul. I mean, as I said before, roughly speaking, EUR 7 billion net CapEx 2026, 2027. You can expect, let me say, a positive effect in divestment terms coming from the E&P. I mean, because we are not seeing, let me say, a disposal divestment process in the E&P those years. We have not factored in any case anything that could come from the liquidity event, we are not looking for money in this event. We are looking for the future growth and the future consolidation of our E&P profitable business. We are not taking into account any money coming from there.
The only difference between net CapEx and gross CapEx is going to come from the concept of rotations in the low-carbon business. We will be more precise about that in the guidance for 2026 at the end of this year. Going to the remuneration, I mean, again, I prefer to be present on that. EUR 6 billion is today the best approach we have in terms of remuneration, and we are comfortable with the percentage of distribution for our shareholders I mentioned before. The cash dividend plus the EUR 700 million of buybacks we announced. If things are different, if things are different, we will call about that in coming quarters. In this volatile environment, I'm confident and comfortable about what I'm seeing and what I'm announcing as guidance for coming months. I prefer to be present before talking about upsides, growing, and so on.
Because, I mean, you know, Paul, and I know the volatile world and environment we are experiencing now, and presence is a good ally in these complex times. Thank you. Thank you, Paul. Our next question comes from Anis Capadia at Palissy Advisors. Good afternoon. Just a couple of questions, please. I wanted to get your view on, I suppose, the medium to longer-term global gas markets. It seems like there's a lot of LNG capacity that's being built over the next few years, which should narrow the spread between Henry Hub and bring global LNG prices, gas prices down. Just wondering how you're looking to navigate that market over the coming years. And then just going back to hydrogen, I was just wondering in terms of the various different ways of producing hydrogen, how you're looking at that market.
Obviously, you've got the existing green hydrogen, but just wondering how you're thinking about the blue hydrogen market and also the kind of natural or white hydrogen market where you could drill for the hydrogen at potentially lower cost. Thank you. Thank you, Anis. I'm not an expert on gas markets, but what we try to say, because, I mean, it's part of our business, but it's not the core of our business, is to try to be a bit balanced in the positions we have. You know that we are the main Iberian consumer of gas, so we have strong short positions in Iberia. At the same time, we have long positions, some of them in the Gulf, in America, and, I mean, some others in Europe, but mainly in America.
In the long term, we are going to try to be, because you have to take into account that we are also growing in our gas retail market in Spain. If today we could have, let me say. An excess in terms of comparing the long and short position close to 1 BCM. Taking into account that we are going to grow in our retail gas market in Spain, let me say that we are quite comfortable seeing that probably—and I say probably because I don't have a crystal clear—in three, four, five years, the LNG production in the world is going to grow and probably is going to cover in a quite easy way the current demand. In this scenario, we prefer to avoid having long positions in LNG. We trend in this evolution because the consumptions.
I mean, I could elaborate a bit more because we are going to reduce the gas consumptions in our refineries because we are more efficient and so on, but we are growing at the same time in the retail market. All in all, we trend to be balanced in the long term. In the mix, we are going to take advantage of this position because, I mean, the value today of this 1 BCM of excess capacity in Europe coming from the Gulf of Mexico is going to have a revenue for Repsol this year that could be at around $200 million, roughly speaking. That is the view we have. Going to your point, I couldn't agree more about the approach of loving the blue hydrogen. I love it. In terms of, I mean, combining the carbon capture with hydrogen production.
Unfortunately, this blue hydrogen is not part of the European directive of the hydrogen that could be used to fulfill this mandate, this commitment, because the definition is done in terms of renewable fuel with non-biological origin and because it's related to this carbon capture to an organic production. It is not a non-biological origin. It is not competing, let me say, with the green hydrogen to be able to cover this regulatory obligation that every operator in our case, of course, in the Iberian market, but in general terms, in the European market, has to fulfill in coming years. I take your point. I agree, Anis, but I can't use this blue hydrogen to fulfill this regulatory obligation. Thank you. That was our last question today. With this, we will bring our second-quarter conference call to an end. Thank you very much for your attendance.