Hello and welcome to the Deutsche Bank Virtual Investor Conference, DVVIC. This is Zafar Aziz from the Deutsche Bank team. I'm pleased to welcome our next presentation by Repsol from Spain. Before I introduce our speaker, a few points to note. Please click on the questions box to ask a question. All of today's presentations will be recorded and can be accessed via the Deutsche Bank website, adr.dv.com. I'm happy now to hand over to Repsol.
Thank you, and welcome to everybody joining Repsol here today online. Let me begin by thanking our organizer, Deutsche Bank, for this virtual ADR conference. A milestone indeed for all the companies that are in this market. My name is Álvaro Jesús, and I work within the Investor Relations Department at Repsol as the Front Office Manager, handling institutional investors' communication. Today, I'm going to convey who Repsol is, what we are at this company, and what we are going to become in the future, following our latest strategic update. However, before we begin the slide deck per se, let me draw your attention to our disclaimer. During this presentation, I may make forward-looking statements based on estimates. Please take into consideration actual results may differ materially, depending on a number of factors as indicated in this disclaimer.
First, let's focus on who we are here at Repsol, our company overview. We are a multi-energy provider, born, raised, and headquartered in Madrid, Spain, but nowadays with a global spin that comprises four business verticals. We are integrated all along the energy value chain within the upstream, the industrial, the customer, and the low-carbon generation. Taking into consideration 2024 data as a template, our upstream production stood at around 570,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with around two-thirds being gas and one-third crude oil. We had 1.8 billion bbl of proved reserves, of which around three-fourths were gas and one-fourth, or 25%, were liquid. Industrial comprises several businesses, highlighting six refineries, one in Peru and five in Spain, that operate as a single one in an integrated system with more than one billion barrels of capacity per day.
Three chemical complexes located in the Iberian Peninsula, back to back to our industrial facilities and a growing trade in business. Customer, mainly located in the Iberian Peninsula, remember where we were born, raised, and headquartered. It offers a multi-energy approach, a unique approach, and that's our strategic line and our key competitive advantage in this business. To our more than 24 million clients, in excess of which nine million clients are digital. This business includes 4,500 service stations, a growing retail electricity and gas with almost three million clients, LPG, and lubricants. And finally, the low-carbon generation business. 3.7 renewable generation capacity in operation at the end of 2024, right now in excess of five and with a pipeline of in excess of 330 GW. At this point, we have covered who Repsol is. Now we must look forward to the future.
To see what this company is going to become towards 2027. For the next four years, we maintain an approach towards an energy transition convinced that it is the right strategy for us, embracing the decarbonization process. For decarbonizing the world, of course, but also because we see a clear opportunity of profits and growth for this company in this new decarbonization scenarios. Transition, but a profitable one. Our roadmap to 2027 is based on the accomplishment of these strategic pillars within our four verticals: the upstream, the industrial, the customer, and the low-carbon generation. And our fundamental commitment being to shareholder distribution, providing certainty and predictability to our dividend. Okay? Our enterprise capital allocation will be based on three main levers. The first, as I was mentioning before, the shareholder distribution, our first priority. And net CapEx and maintaining our current rate.
All these figures under a central scenario with $80 per barrel, $3/MMBtu, and $8.0 refining margin, respectively, for 2024, and $70 Brent, $3.5/MMBtu, and $6.0 per barrel for the period 2025-2027. Of course, these figures are being adjusted as the quarters go by because the situation is evolving. But these were our original estimates. As previously indicated, this is our first priority, the dividend, the cash dividend commitments, the umbrella under which our shareholder distribution operates is that Repsol is going to distribute between 25%-35% of its cash flow from operations to its shareholders. Under that umbrella, the first. Commitment set in stone, whatever happens, is the cash dividend commitment that you have in the top part of the slide. To the tune, you may see the amount of euros that Repsol is going to pay to its shareholders. To 2027. Let me put an example.
In this 2025, we have already paid to our shareholders EUR 1,128 million. Next year, 2026, we are going to distribute to our shareholders EUR 1,162 million. In this four-year strategic plan, that means a total cash dividend of EUR 4.6 billion with a committed 3% growth. But that growth is higher. Why? Because complementing that cash dividend that, remember, it's set in stone, whatever happens. We are doing a share buyback program to reach that 25%-35% of the operating cash flow, up to EUR 5.4 billion between this period, between 2024 and 2027. Okay? In this 2025, for example, we are going to allocate EUR 1.8 billion in total. Remember, EUR 1,128 million due to the cash dividend and the remaining EUR 700 million through share buybacks. This year, our dividend was EUR 0.975, an 8.3% increase over 2024.
And in 2026, our dividend is going to jump over the euro, and it's going to be around EUR 1.05, depending on the latest share buyback program that we are doing right now. Why is that? Because in this 2025, we have done a first capital reduction that was carried out in July for EUR 350 million for the redemption of shares acquired for an equivalent amount of EUR 350 million. And a second capital reduction for the same amount is going to be executed before year-end. For this, a new share buyback was launched this September, one month ago. For acquisition, again, for the equivalent of EUR 300 million, with the remaining EUR 50 million coming from the settlement of existing derivatives. Ensuring strong distributions to our shareholders remains the key priority in our story of value growth. Or maintaining a clear commitment to our robust balance sheet and our net CapEx objectives.
Here, the second priority, the net CapEx, net CapEx between EUR 16 billion-EUR 19 billion. It plays a key role here at Repsol, with a total gross CapEx of between EUR 24 billion-EUR 26 billion. After portfolio management, after low-carbon generation rotation, after project finance, the net CapEx figure is going to be EUR 16 billion-EUR 19 billion. That was the original plan. What we have announced is that we are going to be closer to the lower part of that range at around EUR 16.16 billion of net CapEx for the full period 2024-2027. It is worth noticing that in excess of 35% of that CapEx, net CapEx, is going to be devoted to low-carbon businesses, namely the biofuel, the hydrogen, electrifying, circular chemical, and renewables per se, wind, solar, hydro. These are the sources and uses of cash that we are going to use in this strategic plan.
As you may see, we offer two scenarios: a central scenario and a lower, more acid scenario. In those two scenarios, taking into consideration the financial flexibility that this company had at the beginning of the plan, we are going to be able to fully fund our net CapEx, our financial commitments, our dividends, and share buybacks, even in this acid scenario that you may see on the right part of the slide. Lastly, Repsol was the first company within the oil and gas sector to commit to be a net-zero company in 2050, the first one, with clear milestones and intermediate decarbonization targets. For 2025, as you may see in the slide, 2030, 2040, and 2050. Our short-term and medium-term objectives were being successfully tightened. Thus, you see the two lines there. The first one that we tightened those objectives was in October 2021 and the second in 2022.
Going forward, we are maintaining these ambitious objectives. During this decade, the carbon intensity indicator reduction of 15% by 2025, 28% by 2030. And that's going to be achieved using a wide range of technologies and businesses in some way in line with the vision that we have in Repsol about the energy transition. We are also displaying other objectives on the top, on the right part of the page regarding net-zero absolute emissions, methane emissions, zero routine flaring, and so on. Now, a fully further breakdown by businesses needed to understand fully the integrated capabilities of a company such as Repsol. Remember, integrated across the value chain. Let's start with the upstream. Our first business vertical. Repsol owns an international portfolio with key positions in Latin America, in the States, and Europe and North Africa.
In 2023, we incorporated EIG in our business with a 25% minority stake, Repsol maintaining 75%. With this agreement that we brought in, our reference investor in general, a sector that is fully aligned with our vision. Since 2021, we have transformed the business into a more profitable one, exceeding the key targets that we set in our previous strategic plan. With these components that you are seeing here, the ones that I mentioned before at the beginning of my presentation, we have defined three strategic priorities: the unconventionals, the conventionals, and the low-carbon solutions. We are going to focus right now on the two first ones. In the unconventionals, we have a position in the States.
In both the Eagle Ford and the Marcellus asset, the ones that you have on the left part of the slide, in which we want to continue to improve in our operating model through reduced break-even and targeting between 180,000 and 200,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day of production. In our conventional assets, we are going to prioritize higher margin barrels with these projects that you have on your slide. If you see the cash flow from operations per barrel average, it's going to increase by 2.1% over those new projects versus the legacy portfolio, with a lower break-even, lower than $50 per barrel. Within these new key projects. But on top of that, we have been upgrading and enhancing our portfolio, reducing the span of our portfolio to 10 producing countries and an exploration activity in Mexico.
For example, this year in the United Kingdom, we have merged with NEO Energy, an operation that was completed this July. This new joint venture, in which we own 45%, is going to be projected to produce around 130,000 bbl of oil equivalent per day in 2025, increasing after this joint venture our net production from around 30,000 bbl- 59,000 bbl per day. On an annual basis, this joint venture, high-grading our portfolio, is expected to contribute around $700 million of EBITDA to Repsol in this year, sorry, in 2026. We have divested all parts of our portfolio that didn't meet our criteria in terms of production efficiency, critical mass, or lower break-evens, such as Colombia, such as Indonesia.
We are consistent with our strategy in the upstream business, in which we want better barrels, lower break-even barrels, and concentrating our operations in geographies where we hold the strongest competitive advantages. In this regard, the U.S. continues to strengthen its position as a strategic growth region within our upstream portfolio. With, for example, these two main projects, the Alaska Pikka and Leon Castille. Leon Castille started its production a couple of weeks ago. Alaska Pikka is going to start its production earlier next year. Together with the upcoming Lapa Southwest in Brazil, we are expected for these three projects, Alaska, Leon Castille, and Lapa Southwest, to give us around 50,000 additional barrels of oil equivalent per day of new, low emissions, low break-even production by 2027. In addition, and this is something to have in mind.
These main assets have accounted for a substantial share of the upstream investment for the last years. We have peaked our investment in the upstream last year, 3 billion. This year, around 2.5. Next year, it's going to be a normalized CapEx level in this division at around EUR 2 billion per year. Finally, and within the EIG agreement, we stated that we were going to have everything ready for a potential listing event in the States of this vertical in 2026. Not an obligation, but just to have everything ready. And as part of the preparations for that. Repsol completed last quarter a $2.5 billion bond offering, the largest in U.S. dollars in Repsol's history. The offering structured in three tranches attracted strong demand, underscoring the solid support for our upstream strategy. Going now towards our second vertical, the industrial business. First.
We leverage on one of the most competitive and integrated refining systems in Western Europe. Our portfolio combines best-in-class assets with leading operational expertise and integration that is reflected in every benchmark published in Europe, comparing refining systems. The average cash flow from operations between 2021 and 2023 was 50% higher than the initial target for this division. And almost 40% of that improvement was a consequence of increased competitiveness within our business. With this map of our assets, mainly in the Iberian Peninsula, remember, as you may see in the map, we have five refineries that operate as a single one system. For Horizon 2027, we have identified five key lines of actions with a focus on maximizing the value of the conventional business. We aim to have lower break-evens with efficiency. We aim to decarbonize our operations in refining and petrochemicals.
And we are also increasing the development of our trading business to optimize the value and capturing the refining of our low-carbon assets. We are transforming our legacy sites. Modifying the fits, producing new products, producing renewable fuels where we maintain our pace of decarbonization, and always stepping up the pace of our trading in accordance with the rest of our businesses. For example, during the third quarter of this year, we have launched, sorry, we have two FIDs of a hydrogen plant of our first large-scale electrolyzer to be constructed in Cartagena, back to back with one of our refineries. And we are finalizing the analysis for the approval of another two projects in Bilbao and Tarragona. These electrolyzers will constitute the main part of our total capacity in operation by the end of the decade in hydrogen. And why is that?
Because, as you may see here, our industrial strategy is based on two things. The first one is our legacy assets, and the second is to build up a new decarbonization of our legacy asset businesses, including the renewable fuels, the hydrogen, the biomethane, the circular chemical. For that, for example, within the renewable fuels, we build up a new plant, C43, in Cartagena, 200,000 bbl-250,000 bbl of capacity per year of production in a refinery in Cartagena. We are retrofitting a former gasoline hydrogenator in a refinery in Puertollano. That's expected to be in operation in the second quarter of 2026, that is going to increase the renewable fuel capacity. In Tarragona, we are developing an eco-plant. That's going to produce biomethanol. And last week, we signed our first offtake contract to supply renewable methanol to the producers at this facility.
Two main lines in the industrial, the legacy and the new businesses. Now, the customer. Moving towards the customer, we have today more, as I mentioned before, more than 24.4 million clients in our customer division. In excess of 9 million clients, our digital. We possess in excess of 4,500 service stations worldwide, 3,800 in the Iberian Peninsula. We've got other businesses here, such as the retail, electricity, and gas clients. In the slide, you have 2.5. Right now, we are on the edge to reaching our 3 million clients in this business. We are the fourth-largest operator in the Spanish electricity market. We have 4 million LPG customers, being the number one energy brand in Spain.
We are, as I mentioned, the leading energy retailer in Iberia, with an attractive commercial business, with a stable free cash flow generation, low capital intensity, and a track record of new businesses built. In 2025, we expected the division to deliver an EBITDA of EUR 1.4 billion. That objective was the original objective to 2027. Thus, we are going to achieve the objective two years in advance. For the 2024-2027, in this growth business, we are going to strengthen our core, which are the backbone of this division and the source of cash flow that is expected to multiply as it's doing, the cash flow generation for this period. To achieve this, we want to maintain our market shares, to increase our margins by investing in differentiation and digitalization. We will invest in non-oil growth, accelerate efficiencies, and deliver a unique offering of 100% renewable fuels produced in our refineries.
100% diesel, it's called Nexa, and 100% gasolines. Renewable diesel, renewable gasoline. We expect by 2027 to have around 2,000 of our service stations to sell 100% renewable diesel in Iberia, becoming also the second, the sub-leader. We are also aiming to build a multi-energy advantage based on our growing position in the retail power and gas. We have a unique value proposition in this sense, combining different kinds of energies. Our in-house developed app, Quilet, is the market-leading transportation app in Spain, and it's also one of the most used ones in the country. We have as of today in excess of 9 million digital clients. As you may see here, the objective of operating cash flow to 2027, the objective of EBITDA of 2027. The EBITDA is going to be achieved in 2025. Two years in advance. Why is that?
Because every single business within the customer is growing. In the results for Repsol's third quarter 2025. The customer vertical achieved its highest results in a quarter ever. That translates to a business that is growing, that it's a backbone of this company, that it is being strengthened every single day. Through oil margins, through non-oil, increasing its retail customers. Adapting to a new LPG business. And that's with our really controlled net CapEx in the period 2024-2027. Moving towards our latest vertical, that's low-carbon generation, where we have a clear success story of value-generating business. We entered this business in 2018. And today we operate in excess of 5 GW. If you check in 2024, at the end of 2024, we were operating 3.7. Right now, we are operating in excess of 5 GW.
And we expect another 500 MW to enter into stream by the end of this year. In 2023 we had 1.1 GW. And then we are growing the number of megawatts put on stream every single year. Right now, we have a pipeline of in excess of 30 GW, mainly in our core markets in Iberia and in the U.S.. And as a guarantee of a maximum discipline of investment decision, we have combined business growth and capital discipline with a model of a double-digit equity IRR return in our projects. For the coming years, our business has an ambitious but a well-rounded plan to deliver a growth that is profitable, that is concentrated geographically and technologically.
We expect to reach around 9 GW, as you can see at the top right part of the slide, by 2027, with around 30% of that allocated in the U.S. and a growing share of wind energy in the portfolio. We are focusing just on three technologies: solar, onshore wind, and hydro. And in four markets, mainly Spain and the States, and then Chile and Italy. Internationally, as I mentioned right now, we have a clear focus in the States. Our business is going to use project financing, covering 60%-70% of the capital needs and the sale of 50% of the projects that is going to be rotated every project. Thus, our total exposure to the country is going to be decreased.
Our proposed strategy will allow us to optimize the net capital exposure in the 2024-2027 period from EUR 8 billion-EUR 9 billion gross CapEx to a net exposure of EUR 3 billion-EUR 4 billion of net CapEx, as you may see in the middle part of the slide, with always an equity IRR target of in excess of 10% or a double-digit. It has to be acknowledged, this is a growth business. It's a business that is going to be negative free cash flow in this 2024-2027 period because it's a business that is really heavy intensive of capital at this point. However, as you may check on Repsol's third quarter results, its results have been increasing in this year. Okay? Now, here at Repsol, we are extraordinarily confident that this strategic update for 2024-2027 represents a compelling investment proposition.
We want to develop our story of value growth, and we will deliver attractive and committed shareholder distribution with a cash dividend growth guaranteed in this scenario to 2027. In 2026, same key strategic principles will guide our path. After the release of our full year 2025 results in February of next year, and in light of the changes in the macroeconomic, regulatory, and business landscape that our industry in the oil and gas sector has gone through, a capital markets day will be held in March 2026, where we will provide updated projections to 2028. In this slide, you have the main metrics that sustain our cash and business growth for this strategic plan 2024 to 2027.
Starting with the distribution, remember the first priority of this company, the strength of our balance sheet and maintaining our credit rating, the cash flow generation linked to the net CapEx, remember the sources and uses of cash. Self-funded plan. Of course, always taking into consideration our sustainability objectives, the returns that we are providing with our businesses. And the upstream production. On the right part of the slide, you have the outlook for 2025. And you may check that the figures are aligned with the original objectives to 2024-2027. And to conclude.
Let me remind you that Repsol is a multi-energy integrated across the whole value chain, home-based, raised, and headquartered in Madrid, with four business verticals, the upstream in which its model is value over volume, with better barrels coming on stream every day that has peaked its CapEx in the past years, and with projects coming on stream that are going to increase our production, lower the break-even. And focus our geographical portfolio mainly in the United States and Brazil. Second, with an industrial business that is focusing on a double path, the legacy business increasing its efficiency, enhancing its margins. Growing its trading. And then a second path. To decarbonize our industrial facilities to launch new businesses, new low-carbon businesses, hydrogen, renewable fuels, circular chemicals.
A customer division that is a growth business, a story of success with a unique strategy, a competitive advantage in which Repsol offers every single molecule and electron that a citizen may need in Spain. A business that in the third quarter of 2025 achieved its highest quarterly results ever. And finally, a low-carbon generation business. Geographically concentrated, technology concentrated, and always looking for a double-digit equity IRR return. Going forward. We are a company that is integrated all along the value chains. We have a presence worldwide. And a leading actor in the decarbonization process towards a profitable and decarbonized future.