Hello, and welcome to the Repsol first quarter 2023 results conference call. Today's conference will be conducted by Mr. Josu Jon Imaz, CEO, and a brief introduction will be given by Mr. Ramon Alvarez de Rosa, Head of Investor Relations. I will now like to hand the call over to Mr. Alvarez de Rosa. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to Repsol's first quarter results conference call. Today's call will be hosted by Josu Jon Imaz, our Chief Executive Officer, with other members of the executive team joining us as well. Before we start, let me draw your attention to our disclaimer. During this presentation, we may make forward-looking statements based on estimates. Actual results may differ materially depending on a number of factors as indicated in the disclaimer. I will now hand the call over to Josu Jon.
Thank you, Ramon. Good afternoon to everyone joining us in this conference call. Today, I will start with the key messages before moving to the business performance and financial results. At the end, I'll provide you with our update outlook for 2023. After the presentation, we'll be available to answer your questions. Starting with the main messages. The complex and volatile environment that we experienced last year continued during the first quarter of 2023. The turbulences in the financial sector intensified the concerns of the possibility of a recession, adding further stability to the commodity market. Oil price fundamentals remain largely unchanged, but market sentiments seem to pay more attention to the uncertainties about the measures to tackle inflation.
Furthermore, the threat of an economic slowdown aggravated the situation of the gas markets, with most price preferences decreasing significantly quarter over quarter as temperatures and demand both turn out below expectations. In the industrial side, the refining environment remain robust as the pressure on middle distillate spread was largely offset by stronger naphtha and gasoline differentials. The petrochemical business continued to be affected by low demand, with margins impacted by increasing imports and high energy costs. In this scenario, Repsol deliver a solid first quarter across all its four business verticals, supported by a sound operational performance aligned with the expectations shared with you in our February call. In addition, we closed the disposal of a minority stake in the upstream business to EIG, cashing in the EUR 1.9 billion initial payment.
In renewables, we finalized the acquisition of Asterion and acquire another 250 MW of renewable development projects in Spain to ABO Wind. Looking at the results, the adjusted income was EUR 1.9 billion, 7% lower quarter-on-quarter, and 78% higher than in the same period a year ago. The cash flow from operations stood at EUR 1.8 billion, 35% below the previous quarter and 68% higher than a year ago. Cash generation was negatively impacted by a EUR 0.6 billion working capital build-up, mostly related to higher stocks in preparation of maintenance activity and an increase in trading positions. Looking ahead, we expect that for the most part, this impact will be reversed in coming quarters.
Net debt, including leases, closed the quarter at EUR 0.9 billion, leaving our gearing ratio at 3%, which compares to the 8% ratio as of December 2022. Capital allocation remain aligned with our strategic framework, with a focus on resilience, CapEx flexibility, and value creation for our shareholders. Our strong financial position, which has been further reinforced with the cash-in of the EIG transaction, allows us to navigate the volatility of this part of the cycle, investing in profitable growth opportunities in our portfolio, and delivering on our shareholder remuneration commitments. In this sense, we are proposing to the next annual general meeting to be held on May 25th, an 11% dividend increase in 2023 to EUR 0.70 per share.
Of this, EUR 0.35 were already paid in January, and the remainder, EUR 0.35, will be paid later in the year. Dividends will be complemented with share buybacks, aligned with our objective to distribute a 30% of the cash flow from operations to our shareholders. In March, we started the 35 million shares buyback program announced in February, with the intention of canceling a total of 50 million shares before the end of July. Additional buybacks are expected later in the year, reaching the upper part of our distribution range. Let me say that being more specific, we'll launch a second buyback program in the conference call of July. This buyback program will have the aim of redeeming an additional amount of 50 million shares.
That means we are going to reduce this year our number of shares in a minimum of 100 million shares. That combined with the cash dividend of EUR 0.70 per share, represents a total distribution around EUR 2.4 billion in 2023. That is going to be the distribution framework for this year. Let me now briefly review the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators in the quarter. Brent crude average $81 per barrel, an $8 decrease quarter-on-quarter, and $21 below the same period a year ago. The Henry Hub averaged $3.4 per million BTU, 46% lower than the previous quarter and 32% lower than a year ago. Gas prices in Europe follow a similar trend, impacted by the softer temperatures and high storage levels.
Repsol's refining margin indicator averaged $15.6 a barrel, around $3.3 lower than the fourth quarter and $9 higher than a year ago. Lastly, the exchange rate averaged $1.07 per EUR, recovering much of the ground lost in the last part of 2022. Moving now to the upstream performance. The adjusted income was EUR 0.5 billion in the quarter, 35% lower in the same period of 2022 and 21% lower quarter-over-quarter. The contribution of a higher production was more than offset by weaker oil and gas price realizations and higher costs. Production averaged 608,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day at 10% increase quarter-over-quarter and 9% above the same period in 2022.
Year-over-year, first quarter volumes benefit from the startup of new wells in unconventionals. The incorporation of the recently acquired position in Eagle Ford, lower unplanned downtimes, and now stable production in Libya. This in fact more than compensated the country exits executed in 2022 and the natural decline of the fields. As discussed in February, the development activity focused on the efficient delivery of projects with FID taken and production growth was on track. In the U.S., we are closely monitoring gas prices and costs in the region to adequate activity in unconventionals if necessary, in response to changing market conditions. Moving forward, in Alaska, drilling activity for the first development phase of Pikka will start this quarter, and the project progresses as planned towards achieving first oil at the beginning of 2026.
In the Gulf of Mexico, the drilling campaign in Leon- Castille started in February. The development of Shenzi North is expected to reach first oil by the end of the year. Continuing now with industrial division, the healthy refining margins we saw in the first quarter and the solid results in wholesale gas and trading more than compensated for the ongoing weakness in petrochemicals. The adjusted income stood at EUR 1.3 billion, 11% higher over the last quarter of 2022, around EUR 1 billion higher than in the same period a year ago. Year-over-year, the first quarter benefit from a higher contribution of refining. Higher also in Peru, trading, and wholesale and gas trading, partially offset by lower results in chemicals.
In refining, the margin indicator averaged $15.6 per barrel, which compares to the $18.9 achieved in the last quarter of 2022. The narrowing of middle distillate spreads, pressured by higher diesel inventories and elevated levels of Russian imports ahead of the sanctions was largely offset by wider naphtha and gasoline differentials. The premium generated in the unit CCS margin was $4 over the indicator. The average utilization of the distillation capacity was 83%, slightly above previous quarter. Utilization rate of the conversion units reached 100%, in line with the fourth quarter of 2022. Maintenance activity included the planned turnaround of Bilbao as part of its multi-annual maintenance schedule. During the first quarter, we continued to process Venezuelan crude that was received in the last months of 2022.
In addition, we have received new cargos for a total of 1.6 million barrels of oil that will be processed through the second quarter. In chemicals, the margin indicator was 10% below the fourth quarter of 2022 and 15% lower year-over-year. The demand situation remained depressed in overall terms. A combination of high energy prices, production adjustments, and weak demand continues to affect nearly all chemical sectors in Europe. In Portugal, construction of the expansion of the Sines Petrochemical Complex started in March after getting all the environmental permits and completion of engineering and main procurement works. We expect to invest EUR 650 million in the project. That is part of our strategy to transform our legacy industrial sites into multi-energy hubs.
The project includes building two new polyolefin plants with a production capacity of 600,000 tons a year of high value added and fully recyclable materials. Let me also highlight that it's the EUR 300 million loan that the Spanish official credit institute, that's called the ICO, grant to Repsol last week, which backs our commitment to the transformation of our sites, innovation and maintenance of our industrial activity in Spain and Portugal. In Bilbao, in partnership with Saudi Aramco, we took another important step in our industrial transformation with the final investment decision for an e-fuels demo plant that will produce synthetic fuels using green hydrogen and CO2 as raw materials. Turning now to the customer division.
The adjusted income was EUR 174 million, 9% higher quarter-over-quarter, and 83% of all the same period a year ago. All businesses in this division contribute to the year-over-year improvement. In mobility, sales in our service stations in Spain, sales were 12% higher than in the same period of 2022. The impact of the discounts applied to our customers was more than compensated by a higher market share, gained thanks to the successful loyalty initiatives implemented last year. Our Waylet mobility app surpassed 6 million clients in March, reaching another milestone towards the objective of having 8 million digital clients in 2025. Moreover, the accelerated growth of our digital client base allow us to take another step in the development of our multi-energy commercial offering.
Starting in April, a new ambitious energy proposition that has been built around Waylet will link discounts to our clients in Spain to a multi-energy portfolio of products. With this program, we aim to retain most of the market share gained since 2022, and at the same time, we aim to increase the integrated margin capture in the whole commercial chain. In retail, electricity and gas, compared to the same period in 2022, first quarter results benefit from the sharp decline of electricity pool price in Spain and a cheaper gas, which has a positive impact in the energy sourcing cost of our business. Moving now to low carbon generation. The power generated by Repsol reached 2 terawatts hour in the quarter, 5% higher than in the same period last year.
The adjusted income was EUR 34 million, 21% higher than a year ago, and EUR 27 million higher than the previous quarter. Year-over-year, the higher results in renewables division reflect the higher generation and the entry of new projects under operation. The development of our renewable project pipeline continued in the first quarter. In Spain, we commissioned the first turbines in the PI wind project that's in the Castile area, in Valladolid, Palencia, and we add two new wind farms under operation to Delta II in Aragon. In addition, we took the FID of our first fully greenfield projects in the country, the Villena and Trillo solar plants, 320 MW, all in all, demonstrating how Repsol can also develop projects that are designed from the ground up, I mean, greenfield projects.
In Chile, the Atacama wind farm became, in January, our second joint project under operation there. By the end of February, we closed the acquisition of Asterion Energies for EUR 570 million, incorporating a portfolio of 7.7 GW, mainly in Spain and Italy, of which 2.5 GW are at an advanced stage of development. The acquired assets reinforce our ambition to reach 2025 and 2030 generation capacity targets. Finally, during the quarter, we incorporated another 250 MW to our portfolio, 150 wind and 100 solar. These projects are in advanced development phase through the acquisition of 3 wind farms and 2 solar plants from developer ABO Wind. These recent inorganic transactions are aligned with our focus in low risk, efficient markets.
We currently have 1.9 GW of renewable capacity in operation and 1.3 GW under construction. We are confident on reaching 2.75 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2023. Being in United States, the main contributor to this data, to this growth. Moving now briefly to the financial results. In this slide, you may have a summary of the figures that we have discussed when reviewing the performance of our businesses. Let me highlight that following the sale of the 25% stakes of our upstream and renewables businesses, we have reviewed the measures used to report the performance of our operating segments. To facilitate that our financial information adequately reflects the company decision-making and to ensure comparability with previous years, the newly defined adjusted income represents the total income managed by Repsol before non-controlling interest.
Of course, in our financials, you may find the detailed breakdown of the adjusted income corresponding to minority interest in each segment. In addition, the former commercial and renewable operating segment has been split in two divisions. A customer comprising all the commercial businesses and low carbon generation, which includes power generation for renewable resources and CCGTs. The rest of the divisions remain unchanged. This way, our operating segments better reflect the company model, providing more visibility on the performance of our main growth vectors. For further details, of course, I encourage you to refer to the complete documents that were released this morning. Let me now review or update how it look to the end of the year.
Going forward, we continue seeing volatility in the commodity prices, but we are confident that our strong financial position will allow us to face the ongoing uncertainty in the markets. The refining margins have experienced a significant decline since the beginning of April, the margin indicator has hovered in the $6 per barrel range. The relative strengthening of gasoline has not offset the weakening of middle distillate differentials that were mostly affected by the elevated levels of diesel inventories that were built some months before in the eve of the sanctions of Russian products and the return of French refineries from the strike.
Despite this decline, we keep foreseeing healthy refining margins for the rest of the year, and this view is underpinned by the recovery of demand in China, supported by the solid first quarter GDP figure released last week, and by a higher level of compliance of the sanctions to Russia that we rely on European authorities to enforce in a serious way, these sanctions in this war environment we are suffering and experiencing, and gradual recovery of the aviation sector. Year to date, our refining margin indicator has averaged around $14 per barrel, which at this point prompt us to maintain unchanged our $9 average margin indicator guidance for the year. In the upstream, the good production performance of the first quarter has extended into April.
Year to date, volumes have averaged around 605 barrels per day, and our full year guidance remains unchanged. On a yearly basis, we expect to average between 590 and 610,000 barrels per day of production, supported by the contribution of the new wells in unconventionals, higher volumes in Trinidad and Tobago, and lower downtimes compared to 2022. With regards to gas prices in the US, we foresee price to remain constrained in 2023, as high inventory levels should be enough, sorry, to cover LNG exports and domestic demand. The organic investment executed during first quarter of the year was EUR 1 billion, a bit below the average we had for the whole year. Looking forward, we maintain the flexibility of our CapEx budget, considering the weight of unconventional activity on it.
Shareholder remuneration is expected to remain in the higher part of our cash flow of operations distribution range. As I mentioned before, 30% with this commitment I mentioned before of a new shareholder buyback of 50 million shares that will launch in July, in the conference call of the second quarter, with room, if there is room for that in October to add an additional buyback, in case of not achieving this 30% of cash flow from operations, but always in this range of EUR 2.4 billion of total distribution over the whole year.
Let me say that the figure we are using to calculate this 30% is going to be the consolidated operating cash flow of the group before subtracting the dividends corresponding to our minority partners in upstream and renewables. We are also excluding from these figures one-off cash impacts not recurrent, like the payment made, or that is going to be made, better said, to settle the Maxus litigation agreed last quarter. In addition to an 11% dividend increase on this share capital reduction of EUR 50 million that is going to be proposed to the next AGM, a new buybacks will be approved later in the year, as I mentioned, EUR 50 million in July, to reach our cash distribution target.
In the second quarter, result conference call, we expect to provide and to announce this new buyback I mentioned before. We have started 2023 in a very positive tone, delivering a very solid quarter of operational performance and financial results. The first months of the year have demonstrated the strength of Repsol's integrated model and our commitment with growing value in our asset base. We maintain a disciplined capital approach, investing in the best energy projects with a focus on shareholder value. The recent refining margin contraction and weaker gas prices in the U.S. could indicate a change or some shift, let me use the term, in the recent macro trends. I'm confident that our strong financial position will allow us to withstand comfortably the ongoing volatility that we anticipated in coming quarters.
It's still soon to know if this trend will consolidate, in our view, the recovery of Chinese economy and the increased difficulties for Russia to continue sending diesel into Europe will contribute positively until the end of the year. In the meantime, the current market environment is more than sufficient to sustain our transformation and the delivery of our long-term goals. Last year, we took advantage of a favorable commodity price context to progress in our strategic objectives, and any change in the commodity cycle will not alter our ambitions, neither the path we have defined, to deliver the transformation of Repsol and to deliver our solid distribution policy for our shareholders. We are looking into a transition, not a revolution. Even if things are beginning to change, our approach remains intact. With that, I now hand over to Ramon. Thank you, Ramon.
Thank you very much, Josu Jon. Before we move to the Q&A session, I would like the operator to remind us of the process to ask a question. Please, operator, go ahead.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one.
Thank you, operator. We move on to the Q&A session. Our first question comes from Oswald Clint at Bernstein. Please, Oswald, go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much. First question, starting with the gearing at 3%, I think that'll probably end up as the best across the sector, but you mentioned it's to help you withstand the current volatility. I'm sure you're always looking at new profitable, new ideas, new investments, and I'm just curious if there's any change in which pool or bucket that you might be looking at today. Is it still very much clean energy focused, or is there any appetite to perhaps look at exploration as well, given we're seeing a little bit of a pickup elsewhere? That's the first question, please.
Then just downstream, perhaps, Josu Jon, you're always very good at just talking around demand here for your products across the region, at least as we look into the second quarter. Also what you're doing here with commercial margins. You've offered this big discount. It's obviously been eroding some of your commercial margins, certainly within retail. You've changed that up a little bit, I think, at the end of March. How do you think that plays out now over the summer? Is that gonna be a net positive to commercial retail margins? Thank you.
Thank you, Oswald. I mean, first of all, as I mentioned in my speech, you see that we are going to take advantage of this low gearing to push some other policies and targets of the company ahead. For instance, the distribution for our shareholders. I mentioned that in any case, we are going to reduce the year, the number of shares we have in a minimum of 1 million shares. That means that, I mean, in case of having a worse environment over the year, and it would be even possible that our distribution over the year will be above the 30% of our cash flow from operations. Nothing happens.
We have an strong balance sheet to do it. We are going to take advantage of this strong balance sheet also to push and to have a solid distribution policy for our shareholders. Saying that, as I mentioned, in the first quarter conference call, upsetting our communication team with my statement, my aim is to be the most boring CEO in the world. Being boring is compatible with small and medium acquisition to help us to transform or to accelerate some businesses. I mean, if someone expects a big acquisition, that is not going to happen. What we are doing is applying the capital allocation policy we defined in our strategic plan in 2020. We are investing either in legacy assets.
I mean, this year, the 45% of our CapEx is going to be devoted to our exploration production business. We are launching our strategic plans in this business. Securing, in some way or guaranteeing our production above 600,000 barrels a day for coming years. We are investing in the transformation of the company. Transformation, let me say, in three main or with three main targets. The transformation in the client side, we are building this multi-energy offer. We are growing in an strong way in the retail electricity and gas business in Spain, we are building this multi-energy offer. You could see that we are improving our EBITDA and our EBIT in the commercial businesses, that is because we are growing.
Going to your second question, let me say that, I mean, of course, we are going to apply any kind of attractive offers to our customers with a target. I mean, the target has to be to maintain in a huge way the increase of the market share we had last year. I mean, we have more sales, we have more market share, we have more loyalty in our customers. We have increased in a dramatic way the number of users of Wible, 6 million users in Spain. It's a huge figure. All in all, we want to be attractive for our customers and offering them also some other services.
You could see that now, we have overcome some other competitors, and we are already the fourth, eh, company in terms of customers in the retail power business in Spain. We are going to go on in this, in this line, investing and growing this business. The two other, eh, vectors or objectives of these growths are going to be the transformation of our industrial business. You have seen that we are increasing in our e-fuel and biofuel production. What you have seen in terms of premium, of the refining margin, there are many reasons behind this figure, that the e-fuels, the biofuels, advanced biofuels are also there, are also part of this improvement of the competitiveness of our industrial business.
That is going to improve in coming months after the start of the operation of the first on-purpose plant that is going to produce advanced biofuels in Cartagena. The third driver, the third target is, of course, the renewable business. I mean, we have a significant progress there. We maintain our target of 6 GW in operation by 2025. Today, we have 1.9 GW in operation in Spain, U.S. and Chile. The clear target we have is to achieve the figure of 2.75 GW in operation at the end of this year. We are quite confident about this figure because today we have already 1.3 GW of new projects that are in the construction process.
Going to the E&P, of course, we'll always in terms of optimizing, improving the portfolio, will analyze opportunities. The best proof of that has been the inorganic acquisition of INPEX in Eagle Ford that has been incorporated and is behind this inorganic CapEx you have seen in the first quarter to, I mean, to improve the portfolio of our E&P business. Thank you, Oswald.
Okay. Thank you, Oswald. Our next question comes from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC. Please, Biraj, go ahead.
Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. Two questions, please. The first one is just on your CapEx plan for the year. You referenced reviewing U.S. activity because of the gas price and so on. Could you just remind us what proportion of the EUR 5 billion CapEx comes from U.S. onshore and specifically related to gas? The second question is going back to shareholder returns. You've touched on this a few times, but in the past year, Josu Jon, you've talked about wanting competitive shareholder returns relative to the IBEX and then relative to the peer group. Is that still how you think about things?
'Cause it's just one example of a peer that's similar to you was sitting on, you know, a very healthy balance sheet, generated excess cash flows, and they decided to pay out well above 30% CFFO. I was inclined to think that maybe the payout ratio would move above your range given the materiality of the cash you received from the asset sales. Just interesting to get your thoughts on how you landed on the, on the 30%. Thank you.
Thank you, Biraj. I mean, going to our CapEx, I mean, if we see the whole company, it seems to me that more or less this year, something in between 32%-35% of the total CapEx of the company, including E&P and including what is renewable business, is going to be applied in the USA. Going to the E&P, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, excluding Alaska and going to the unconventional, this year, we have a more or less EUR 0.8 billion in what is the United States onshore E&P activity. Saying that, I mean, we are following in a very close way what is happening with American prices.
Let me say that we are very, very comfortable with Eagle Ford that is supported by liquids, by oil price, by compensation and so on. Prices are okay, and we are getting good returns in these assets. Going to the Marcellus, I mean, we have today two rigs in operation. We discard introducing a third rig that was an option in last some months ago, saying that we are going to continue with this two rig activity until September. Since then, we have decided to maintain the production rate with one continuous rig ongoing. This level of activity that we are pursuing in the Marcellus is going to allow us to be cash flow positive with prices above two dollars and a half in the coming years.
Of course, because this, let me say, flexibility we have, we are reducing today our view of this CapEx in the Marcellus in $70 million less than the figure we had in mind in the 2 months ago in the, when we presented our year results. That means that we are, I mean, adapting this CapEx in a flexible way, the EUR 5 billion, or euro, sorry, I mentioned in February, to a situation that depending on the environment, I mean, we could have room, let me say, to adjust this CapEx. Going to your second question.
I mean, last year, I, the figure I have in mind was that, our total shareholders' return was of up 13% for our shareholders, comparing with the cap, the market cap we have. This year, I mentioned that we are going to distribute this minimum of EUR 2.4 billion, that roughly speaking, is equivalent to EUR 0.70 we are going to pay in cash, plus the 100 million shares I'm committing now, 50 that were launched in February, and 50 that are going to be launched in July, at the end of July.
All in all, EUR 2.4 billion, if you compare with our current market cap, it seems to me that could be around 13%, 13.5%, or 14% of return, total shareholder return or distribution for our shareholders. I think that this figure is fully competitive with some other oil and gas companies in Europe, and is of course very, very competitive to the, to the index. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from Irene Himona at Societe Generale. Please, Irene, go ahead.
Thank you very much. Good morning, just John. I had two questions. Firstly, trading made a pretty material contribution this quarter, and thank you for disclosing that. Is there any visibility you could provide us, please, on trading, perhaps in terms of what you expect it to deliver as a minimum on an annual basis, or any guidance indeed you can provide would be very useful? My second question, is it possible to update us with regards to the Sinopec litigation surrounding the Talisman North Sea JV? They had been asking you for EUR 5.5 billion. You have taken an EUR 800 million provision. I wonder where we stand. Is this close to a resolution?
Do you have a sense of the adequacy of the provision you have made in the past? Thank you.
Thank you, Irene. I mean, going to your first question, you know, it's not easy giving guidances in the trading business because we always have a budget that is budgeted for a normal year. If volatility and the environment is favorable for this business, I mean, that is positive in terms of trading. Let me say that what we are seeing this year is quite volatile. That means that it's okay, it's positive for this business. I mean, the figures I could give you, Irene, are the EBITDA we had last year in 2022, I'm checking the figures, sorry, was EUR 580 million. That was a historic EBITDA last year. This first quarter, the EBITDA has been at around EUR 200 million.
I mean, I'm going to give you the budget we had at the beginning of the year for 2023, was EUR 400 million for the whole year. It seems to me that in, I mean, in case of having or continuing with this volatile situation, I mean, we are going clearly to break and to overcome this budget we have. We are going to be probably in another historical year. I don't know if that is going to be lower or higher than the last one, but in any case it's going to be historical. I mean, going to, you mentioned the second one was... Yeah. Yes. Sinopec litigation, sorry. I mean, you know the history of that.
You know that it comes from 2015, 2016, after integration of the conflict they had, Sinopec with the former Talisman. You know that we had 3 partial awards in this Sinopec arbitration. One of them was favorable to Repsol, the second one was unfavorable for Repsol. The third one, have the 5 parts, many of them were favorable with respect to the Repsol position. The court, the arbitration court, goes on working on that. The next hearing is, will take place next May, that means that in some weeks. I think that an award, what is called a quantum decision about the previous awards is not going to be expected before the end of 2023 or probably the beginning of 2024.
Let me say more, Irene. I mean, Repsol is going to develop all the efforts needed in some way to have an open dialogue with Sinopec, aiming to achieve what could be a fair settlement to this conflict. I mean, I say that because, I mean, Sinopec is not, I mean, an unknown company for Repsol. We are partners in the U.K. We don't want to lose any opportunity to improve the value of our assets. We are also partners, as you know, in Brazil. In coming weeks, probably, we are going to take together an important decision, the FID of Campos 33, that is probably one of the most ambitious projects we have in Repsol, and is in any case an ambitious partnership project.
Because this open, collaborative approach we have, we'll always do our best to find together a reasonable solution to this legal dispute. We are there, and we are going to do our best to get it, Irene. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Irene. Our next question comes from Alastair Syme at Citi. Please, Alastair, go ahead.
Thanks, Ramon. I just one question, Josu Jon. You know, you sort of presented about the economic slowdown. I mean, is your assessment on the sort of the pullback in refining is all about demand? Or do you think there's a supply element to the similar. You know, I guess we've had a few months of Russian oil product ban into Europe, so I'd be interested to hear what you're sort of seeing on the ground, and we hear all sorts of stories about Russia and China and India. Maybe if you could provide some sort of picture of the supply side, that would be very useful. Thank you.
Thank you, Alastair. I mean, you know that it's, economist said this is easier to explain the past than the future. I'm going to try to explain the what is happening in the past. I mean, I think that what we have seen in the last few days, I mean, diesel cracks below $20 a barrel, could be due to several factors, I mean, in the analysis we developed. I mean, the first one, the winter season is coming to the end, and therefore, I mean, the seasonal demand for heating oil is falling in Europe. I mean, nothing new. That happens more or less every spring. I mean, before the start of the turnaround campaign in European refineries.
The second one that I think that is, has been very important is that in Europe, in European Union, the level of inventories before the embargo on Russian products was increased significantly over the last months. I mean, what happened in the last quarter of 2022 was, in some way, let me say, artificial. Margins were artificial because the building of inventories in of diesel inventories in Europe. In some way, what we are seeing now is that these inventories are in some way playing in the opposite direction. Again, my point of view is that that is temporary.
That is temporary because we have to eat, let me say, in our refineries in Europe, the inventories of diesel we have built over the last month. There is a third reason from my point of view, the lower natural gas prices. You know that in some applications, natural gas and diesel compete, heating in some places in the world, also in terms of power production. It seems to me that there are reasons to think that we could have an increase in gas prices in Europe in coming months. I mean, to prepare.
Preparing the next winter means that every European country, mainly central European countries, Germany included, they have to build and fulfill their inventories before winter because the potential risk coming from the war in Ukraine are going to be there in coming months. I think that this effect is temporary, and we could see something different in coming months. There is another effect, that is the French refineries, I mean, they came offline due to strikes, and they are, in some way, coming back again, and they are normalizing, in some way, the supply of petroleum oil products in Europe. There is another reason of, probably for me, it's the saddest one.
The saddest one is that despite the sanctions, we are in the midst of a war, but diesel from Russia continues to be on the market, continues to be on the European market, and continues to be in the Spanish market. There are, of course, different destinations, Turkey, Northern Africa, and so on, but this diesel is coming to the European Union. I think that my point is that I hope and I expect that European authorities will be really firm in terms of maintaining the current sanctions for Russian products. First of all, because, I mean, that's fitting with what we are doing in Europe in terms of pressing Russia to stop this invasion in Ukraine. Secondly, because it's fair.
It's fair means that some companies, we are fulfilling in a firm way all the sanctions regime. First of all, because we are convinced of that, because of moral reasons, and secondly, because there is a sanctions regime. What we are asking to European authorities is to stop this import of Russian products through intermediate destinations, Northern Africa, Turkey, and so on, towards Europe. I think that they are, Alastair, the main reasons of the current refining margins we are seeing, that again, I think that our view for the rest of the year is a bit better than what we are experiencing today. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Alastair. Our next question comes from Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Please, Michele, go ahead.
Perfect. Thank you very much. Josu Jon, congratulations on the strong results today. I had two questions, if I may. Now that you've closed your farm out of the E&P business and you're starting to reignite its project pipeline and the growth profile, I was wondering how you're thinking about the potential U.S. IPO in the coming year that you had floated as an idea at the time of the farm out. Secondly, I wanted to take your take on the Net-Zero Industry Act from Europe and how much Repsol can benefit from that with its low carbon activities, especially in Iberia. Thank you.
Thank you, Michele. I mean, first of all, we closed the transaction on, I think that was March 3rd or 4th, so, six, seven weeks ago. I think that we have a long journey ahead to prepare our EMP business in coming months or years. I mentioned before that we have the aim of listing this company probably in an Anglo-Saxon market and probably in the American market, a part of this company. I think that we have to prepare the upstream business for that. That means, first of all, being more performant in terms of efficiency, having probably more optimized portfolio. We are going to go on optimizing our portfolio in the same direction we have done over the last three, four years.
I think that we have to prepare a business that could be understandable for investors also in those markets. From this point of view, I mean, we are on track. Let me say, Michele, that we are going to need some time to do that. We'll go on improving quarter after quarter this business, but we are going to need two, three years to prepare this business for this scenario. As you mentioned, we have in mind doing that, and we'll do our best to go in that direction. Going to the net zero ambition, I mean, we are, Michele, we are decarbonizing Repsol, first of all, because we have a moral commitment, and we want to reduce the CO2 footprint of our activities.
You know that over the last years, we have been tough in this direction. We also want to decarbonize Repsol because we want to make money. We want to have a competitive Repsol in 2030, in 2040, in 2050, in a world that is going to be different, in a world that is going to be decarbonized. Saying that, I think that this ambition, either in Europe or in the States, to decarbonize our economy, maintaining this concept of fair and just transition is right. It's right because it's going to give us the opportunity, first of all, to develop all these new activities and having the regulatory support for that.
What we are doing in our industrial activities in Iberia, increasing the advanced biofuels, launching the eco-fuels project, using wastes to produce fuels, all that is fitting with European directives and the European framework. It's true, you know that sometimes I'm, I have some kind of criticism saying that we have to develop a transition and not a revolution. That means that we have to guarantee in the midst the security of supply, and we have to guarantee good prices for our customers, because otherwise, European society couldn't afford this transition. We are fully aligned with this activity of reducing the carbon footprint. I have no doubt that Repsol could benefit from this support of European institution. On saying that, what we are seeing in the U.S. in terms of the IRA, is even better.
Is even better. I hope that, and I expect the European authorities in coming months will be able to redress the European framework, approaching a bit more our view to the American one. The American is predictable. I mean, you know what is going to happen in 10 years. It's simple, it's clear, it's neutral in theoretical terms, it's supporting all technologies, and as I sometimes say, they are applying more the carrot than the stick, that sometimes is behind some European regulations. Again, I think that what has to do is improving this view in Europe and being ambitious in this transition effort. Thank you, Michele.
Thank you.
Thank you, Michele. Our next question comes from Joshua Stone at Barclays. Please, Joshua, go ahead.
Thanks, Ramon. Two questions, please. First one just on cash taxes. They were quite low at the start of the year. Is there anything to say there, in particular on the windfall taxes, just remind us where we are on that and if there's anything more to come? Secondly, on refining, with the fall in natural gas price, have you started consuming natural gas at, you know, or greater amounts of natural gas at the refinery? Just curious on that. Thank you.
Thank you, Joshua. Yeah, as you mentioned, in the tasks, in the cash taxes, during the quarter, we have had the payment of this temporary windfall tax, EUR 225 million in the quarter. It's true that in this quarter, we also, you know that we anticipate some corporate taxes in the Spanish jurisdiction. We had a corporate tax in 2021, depending on what kind of rules, what kind of tax credit and so on are applied, we have an evolution of a part of this corporate tax.
that's comes from 2021, in the 1st quarter of this year, and that is the reason why you are in some way seeing the combination of both of both effects. This half of the windfall tax was paid in this quarter. Your second question was about the re-refining and margin, Joshua. Excuse me, could you repeat it?
Sorry, just at the refining complex and your refineries, have you started increasing the use of natural gas, given the fall in price, or are you still using alternatives?
Sorry, Joshua. Yes. I mean, if today I could tell you that we are mainly using natural gas as fuel in our refining complexes. I think that today the naphtha used to fuel or some other fuels is quite negligible, and that means that we have the flexibility to do it, and that is going to depend on prices. We have a programming and planning optimization for our complexes, and depending on the prices of LPG, depending on prices of gas, depending on prices of naphtha, we optimize the basket. We were able, last year, in 2022, to optimize almost 1.2 BCM of gas. That's a third more or less of our total production, total consumption, sorry, in our industrial complexes.
It's shifting from natural gas to naphtha, to LPGs, and to fuel gas of the refineries and so on, due to the huge and high gas prices we experienced over the whole year. Seeing the current gas prices, I mean, we are optimizing the system just in the opposite direction. Again, we are flexible, and flexibility is the key word in our refining and chemical businesses. This flexibility is behind also the premiums we are getting above the refining margin we defined before the beginning of the year. Thank you, Joshua.
Thank you.
Thank you, Joshua. Our next question comes from Jason Kenney at Santander. Please, Jason, go ahead.
Jason?
Hi. Sorry, had a tech issue. Thanks, Ramon. Thanks, Josu Jon. Listen, I've covered Repsol a long time, and it's great to see that balance sheet figure and also the positive share buyback commitment too, so congratulations on that. I just wanna dig a little deeper on the refining, if I might. Is it possible for you to kind of define the underlying EBITDA uplift that you're seeing in the industrial division on a kinda like-for-like margin basis relative to 2018, 2019? Or relative to the plan that you had in 2020 when you were thinking $3, $54 margins? Just wanna see what kind of efficiency initiatives are doing in terms of the EBITDA support at the minute.
Secondly, can you just remind me of the proportion of renewables that will be under PPA contracts when you reach that 6 GW? Thanks.
Thank you, Jason. Probably I'm not able now, I mean, in suddenly to give you the exact figure, but I mean, I'm going to give you a clue about that. Last quarter, we decided to integrate our refining and chemical businesses in a single unit. It's true that we are still splitting the result of every business, but we launched, at the beginning of the year, the integration of the programming and planning of both businesses, optimizing the whole basket of products.
That means that every time we are acquiring a cargo from trading, we are integrating a system to know exactly what is going to happen and what kind of alternatives we have for these products produced in the refinery in order to fit the chemical business. We are taking into account the whole refining of this business. Taking into account only this effect, we have improved in $0.4 per barrel, the premium of our refining system over the first quarter. That means that that is one of the initiatives we are putting on track in terms of optimization.
In terms of EBITDA, the break-even we have of EBITDA over the whole year has been in 2023, we expect to have an additional reduction of the break-even of EBITDA of a figure of break-even of EBITDA in our refining business of $0.3 a barrel. That means that at $0.3 a barrel, our EBITDA business will be neutral in EBITDA. It's a huge and enormous reduction of break-evens comparing with the figures we had when we presented our strategic plan in 2020. In any case, Jason, I'm sure that our IR team will be ready to give you a bit more flavor about that.
Going to our the contracts we have in the renewable business, more or less, I mean, and 90% of the old capacity we have now in operation has PPAs. Probably we have to start here. I think that Valdesolar that is open to the merchant market. All the rest, they have PPAs and more or less, the PPA they have, this asset in operation is covering 60% of the P50 production of this asset. That would be roughly speaking, Jason, the answer to your question. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thank you very much, Jason. Next question comes from Matt Lofting at JP Morgan. Please, Matt, go ahead.
Hi. Hi. Thanks for taking the questions. Two, if I could, please. First on, coming back to your earlier comments, Josu Jon, on demand, to the extent that financial markets are putting something of a good enough proof on the resilience of global oil and energy demand here, are there any areas or sub-sectors within Repsol's extensive downstream business where you're beginning to see any negative rate of change in demand manifesting? And then second, on refining, very strong premium over the Spanish benchmark in Q1, which should be congratulated. Looking forward, though, can you talk about what Repsol's seeing on light heavy spread trends in the market? And do you see a risk that differentials narrow as OPEC takes heavier barrels off the market following the recent quota cut? Thank you.
Thank you, Matt. I mean, what we have seen in, in the short term is not any negative impact of demand. If we go to our main markets, what we are seeing is that we are recovering in a full way the demand we had before the pandemic. You could see, as I mentioned before, that in the commercial business and so on, eh, we are increasing in a significant way the sales comparing with the year, 2022. Saying that, I think that there are reasons to see that. You mentioned in the second part of your question, what is behind the premium.
One of the reasons, there are many of them, but one of the reasons behind the premium is that we are exporting less product, and we are selling more product in the internal market because Spanish market is growing, comparing with the figures we had last year. That means that we are substituting FOB positions by CIF positions. That means that we are helping through this effect to improve the premium of the refining margin. That is one clear reason. Second one you mention is that it's not because the spread between heavy to light, because this spread is included in the refining margin.
What we are seeing is that we are able To have more heavy oil than expected. Because we have a significant supply of Maya, because we are capturing and getting the heavy oil from Venezuela. On top of that, we have alternative some options from Brazil, also from North America, Canada and so on. Because this higher supply of that, we are increasing also the premium over over the indicator, because we are improving the flexibility for our system, processing more heavy oil than expected. There is a third reason. The third reason is that we are increasing the amount of biofuels we are processing in our refineries.
I mean, we are we have, let me say, a bio business that is hidden within the refining business in some way. I mean, we are what is behind of this bio business is this quarter a result of EUR 66 million. All that is behind and is included in the premium of the refining margin. That is going to go on, that is going to grow in coming months after the start of operation of the C43 in Cartagena. We have the flexibility of our system. We have increased a bit the production of middle distillates. I mean, all in all is behind this premium over the indicator. Going rapidly to your questions, I mean, we don't see a negative impact in demand.
In the medium term, we are comfortable with this demand. Sectors like aviation are going to grow, and that is going to push a good position for middle distillates in Europe. In Europe, we have a strong short position in terms of middle distillates, and that is an opportunity for Repsol. Going to the premium, I mean, I don't know what is going to happen over the whole year. I'm just going to say that we could repeat these $4 per barrel over the whole year. Let me say, I mean, it seems to me that taking all these factors, it will be over the whole year easier to be close to $3 a barrel of premium that close to $2. I mean, we'll see over the year. Thank you.
Sure. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you, Matt. Next question comes from Sasikanth Chilukuru at Morgan Stanley. Please, Sasi, go ahead.
Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I have 2 left, please. The first was actually a couple of clarifications on the shareholder distribution guidance. You highlighted additional 15 million shares, capital reduction program expected to be announced with 2Q results. Just wanted to check whether this implies all 15 million shares being bought from the market, or would that also involve redemption of our treasury shares, as we have seen in the first phase? I believe that was around 15 million shares.
ing about the relationship between two pieces of guidance: a EUR 2.4 billion shareholder distribution implied for 2025, and a higher than 50 million share buyback for the second half of 2023, especially considering 35 million shares were already bought back in the first phase. The speaker is wondering how these two figures, the 50 million share buyback in July and the potential EUR 2.4 billion in shareholder distributions, align. The second question is a clarification on the financial impact of the settlement of the Maxus litigation
I was just wondering what is the cash outflow, when do you expect it for the business for the remainder of the year? Also, what else is left on the energy, maybe the Spanish temporary energy maybe for the rest of the year? Thank you.
Thank you, Sasi. I mean, we don't have many shares in our balance sheet. That means that as we mentioned before in February, from what is going to be redeemed in July, these 50 million shares, 35 are going to come from the program, I mean, the share buyback program we launched in March. I think that we have, at the end of the quarter, 7, 8 million shares from this program. We have 29, something like that, in our balance sheet. 15 of them are going to be applied, combining with the 35 coming from the program, to redeem these 50 million shares.
That means that what we are going to launch in, at the end of July, a main part of that is going to be bought from the market, clearly speaking, because we don't have another alternative. The main part is going to come from the market. This EUR 2.4 billion, that is a reference of... I mean, that is what we are going to distribute this year, in the worst case, to our shareholders. That is a combination of what we are acquiring now, what we have, the EUR 15 million we have, the EUR 50 we need to redeem the program at the end of July.
is also the 50 million shares that are going to be launched at the end of July, plus the dividend in cash. All in all, EUR 2.4 billion distributed to our shareholders this year. In 2023, all of that. I mean, till now the commitment, I mean, now going what could happen in October, I mean, in the case of seeing in October that the 35% of the cash flow from operations, again, excluding these one-shot effects like Maxus and so on, this figure is higher than this 2.4, we will launch an additional program. In case of having, let me say a 30% of cash flow from operations lower than this figure, nothing happens.
I mean, in that case, we will be distributing a 32% or 33% or 35% of the cash flow from operations to our shareholders this year, because we have an strong balance sheet to do that. Going to the Maxus litigation, the impact, the financial impact is going to be EUR 260 million. That is going to be probably cash out in the third quarter. Third quarter, fourth quarter, probably third quarter. All that has to be, I mean, has to be subject to the court approval. That could happen probably in the third quarter.
Again, we are not going to take into account this cash out or cash outs non-recurrent coming from legal claims and things like that to calculate the cash flow from operation that is going to be used as reference to define the distribution for our shareholders. Thank you, Sasi.
Thank you, Sasi. Our next question comes from Pedro Alves at CaixaBank. Please, Pedro, go ahead.
Hi. Hi, all. Thank you for taking my question. Have two, please. The first one on the chemicals business, which seems to be loss making over the past quarter or so. Perhaps could be useful an update on the demand outlook and perhaps the EBITDA for this year. If you could share also, your first targets or idea of the contribution that in terms of earnings that will come from Finisterre, given the relevant investments that you are doing there. The second one is just a clarification that if you are or not maintaining the CFFO guidance of EUR 8 billion. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Gracias. Buenas tardes, Pedro. It's true. I mean, demand has been quite low over the last quarters, affecting all chemical sectors. All that has caused a significant reduction in margins in the European market. I think that the entire supply chain is trying to keep low stock levels. Consequently, crackers in Europe are still running at reduced rates. I mean, what we have seen is, from the second half of March, let me say, a short recovery of this business. For instance, April has been a bit better than the first quarter. Second half in April has been a bit better than what we saw in the first quarter and the first half of February.
it seems to me that our EBIT breakeven this second quarter could be close to 0. That would be the likeliest scenario, I mean, taking into account what we are seeing now. Going to Sines, I mean, I'm very comfortable with the Sines investment. First of all, because we are not increasing capacity in Sines. That is important fact. We are not increasing the capacity of the cracker in Sines. What we are doing in Sines is increasing the margin of the complex because we are building derivative plants. That means that we are going to increase the margin we are getting, we are capturing from our clients.
90% today of the future production we are going to have in Sines is going to be focused and is asked by our current clients. That means that, I mean, we are seeing a full capacity of putting this product in the market. Again, in Sines, we are also improving the recyclability of our products. That means that we are also adapting the production to a new scenario. I mean, we are quite comfortable in the long term because, I mean, the energy transition means more plastics, because we need lighter cars, we need lighter planes, we need more insulated houses, we need more food, we need to protect this food. We need, I mean, plastics and polymers for farms.
I mean, that is going to grow with the GDP in the world of 3-3.5% year after year. It's true that what we are seeing now, I mean, is probably the consequence of the crisis in Asia, a lower Chinese demand. Probably seeing the figures of China in the first quarter, that is going to push this sector in coming months because a lot of product of Middle East has come to Europe over the last quarters, putting more pressure to European margins because the demand in Asia was lower. We are quite comfortable about that. Let me say that our best guidance for the EBITDA this year, in 2023, for the whole business will be something in the range EUR 50 million-EUR 100 million over the whole year.
I mean, we have to see what happen in coming months. we have a better flavor for next quarters. Going to the guidance for the whole company, you know that we mention the figure of EUR 8 billion for the cash flow from operation. and all that was based on the figure of $9 barrel of refining margin. We are comfortable with this figure. I mean, today $14 a barrel is as of today, the average of the year. It's true that April is lower, we are comfortable with this figure of $9 a barrel for our refining margin.
Half we have, the average is 3.4, and what we have in terms of calculating this cash flow for operation was $4 per million BTU. The rest of the guidance, oil and so on, is fully aligned with our budget, and with, we mention in February. It's true that the premium of the refining is higher than the figure we had in our budget in February. All in all, let me say that I maintain the guidance of cash flow for operation for 2023. Probably I have to reduce this figure in the settlement figure of the Maxus claim.
Again, we are not going to take into account this figure in order to calculate the cash flow from operations that we are going to apply to define the distribution to our shareholders. That means that today we are exactly in the same guidance in cash terms for the whole year we were in February. Thank you, Pedro.
Thank you very much, Pedro. Our next question comes from Fernando Abril-Martorell at Alantra. Please, Fernando, go ahead.
Fernando?
Do you hear me?
Sí, Fernando. Yes.
Hello? Okay. Sorry.
Alantra, go ahead.
Hola.
Buenas tardes.
Okay. Buenas tardes, Ketan. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a couple of questions, please, both on refining. Very clear data you've provided, but just to follow up some, on refining premium, I don't know if you can comment on how April behaved under, you know, more challenging situation. I don't know if it's still at $4. Linked to this, I don't know what guidance, what did you include on your guidance for the full year. Just to see how things are progressing and if you have any, you know, extra caution here. Also I would like to know, you've provided the improvement you've made on the breakeven.
I also wanted to know what did you expect to contribute this Cartagena project that if I recall correctly, it will, you know, start ramp up next year? I don't know, if you can provide any quantitative data in terms of how much this project could, you know, increase onto your refining margin?
Gracias, Fernando. Going to your question, the refining premium, I mean, it's more difficult to calculate or to anticipate this premium before the end of the month, because you know We adjust the premium is the construction of taking the real result comparing with the refining margin, and this difference is defining, in some way, the premium. What we have today in mind is something in between $2-$3 a barrel of premium in April. I'm quite comfortable for coming months because, as I mentioned before, there are some factors behind this premium. One of them is the Spanish market. The Spanish market is performing in a good way.
Secondly, the amount of heavy oil we are able to get in the market. In this sense, it seems to me that this week we are receiving these days 1 million barrels additional of heavy oil from Venezuela. We are now negotiating another, an additional million barrel there that is going to be probably in the second quarter in Spain. On top of that, I mean, we go on getting the significant amount of Mayas and the rest of heavy oil, as I mentioned before. This factor is also going to be there. The biofuels, you know that we are producing HVOs and so on in our hydrodesulfuration units in a significant way.
On top of that, I mean, I have to calculate the Cartagena C43 contribution, but let me say that the return of this project is going to be above the 30% of return of the investment. It's going to be more or less at around this figure, 27%-30%. It's going to be a very competitive and profitable project. Saying that, I mean, I have to check the figure, but I think that could add 0.4, 0.5, something like that, 0.6, to the whole refining margin of the company. Or the whole 900,000 barrels a day we process. Sorry, Fernando, because I have to check this figure.
Pablo, Ramon, and so on, will confirm you exactly.
Okay.
The figure, but it could be. It was the figure I had in mind. Sorry.
That's perfect. In your, in your EUR 8 billion cash flow from operation guidance you provided a few months ago, what refining premium did you include?
Could you repeat it, Fernando?
Yes, yes. In your, EUR 8 billion cash flow from operations-
Yes. Sorry. We were taking 1.4.
1.4.
1.4.
Okay. EUR 1.4. Okay.
That was our budget for this year.
Okay.
For that reason, I said, I mean, of course, I don't have a crystal ball, Fernando. When I say what is happening over the whole year, if we sustain and today's our scenario, perhaps. I mean, for some people, I was very conservative when I said that $9 a barrel could be the refining margin for the whole year. Now perhaps I'm quite bold for some other people, we are comfortable in the $9.
Okay.
per barrel. but at that time we have $1.4 as premium. Today, we see, as higher premium over the whole year, and in some way, this view is offsetting the reduction coming from the Henry Hub. Who knows? Again, I don't have a crystal ball. Thank you, Fernando.
Perfect. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Fernando. Our next question comes from Alessandro Pozzi at Mediobanca. Please, Alessandro, go ahead.
Hi there. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is on a sustainable aviation fuel. I hope you can still hear me. Yeah. Yesterday we've seen the European Union committing to binding targets, and I was wondering whether this is maybe pushing the company in accelerating capacity of SAF. Also, I was wondering whether you think those targets are achievable because 2% in 2025 and 6% in 2030 seems quite demanding. Any view on that would be appreciated. When it comes to cash flow, you talked about dividend to minorities in the upstream, and the way to calculate.
I was wondering whether we should expect a dividend every quarter or or at the end of the year. Any color around the timing of those dividend would be great to have. Thank you.
Thank you. Grazie, Alessandro. First of all, going Fernando, I check the figure. It's $0.5 per barrel, the gain that is going to come from our whole refining system, coming from the C43 plant that is going to be operative in the second half of this year, over the whole re-refining system. Alessandro, going to your question. I mean, you are right. We are, in any case, accelerating the targets we have. In this sense, first of all, of course, we are going to put in operation the C43 in Cartagena, 250,000 tons, more or less, of advanced biofuels using waste as a main feedstock.
On top of that, we are producing today, we have the capacity to produce 380,000 tons per year of HVO in the hydro desulfuration plants we have in our five refineries. On top of that, now we have a quite ambitious project that is a retrofitting of all the high pressure hydrogenation plants we have in Repsol. That's we are talking about hydrocrackers and mild hydrocrackers and hydro treatment plants from our refineries. That's will impact in Coruña, in Puertollano, in Petronor from the point of view of hydro treatment and in Tarragona and Cartagena hydrocrackers.
The figure I have in mind, I have to check it, but we could be, we aim to produce 400,000 additional tons a year after this retrofitting could be complete. Again, I have to check the figure. We are also increasing the ambition in this direction with the FID we took yesterday in our board, supporting the e-fuel plant in Bilbao. That is true. It's a pilot plant, it's a demo plant that is going to produce 50 barrels a day of synthetic fuels.
It's the JV we have with Saudi Aramco. We are preparing the ground through the management of this technology to be able to go in the close future to a potential project that could be, could have an industrial scale to be prepared by 2030. You are right, we are preparing the company in this direction. Going to the, to the cash flow, I mean, this dynamic of dividends every quarter, that is what we are going to follow with our partner. It seems to me, and I'll have to check with our team, that you are not going to be or to see big differences in terms of report in Repsol.
I mean, you are going to be this cash that is going to be distributed at 75% to Repsol and not 25% to the partner of EIG. Yes, that is going to be developed quarterly. Thank you.
Just one question on the aviation fuel. Of course, aviation fuel is, at the moment, a lot more expensive than jets. Do you expect, with more capacity, those spreads to narrow or it will still remain much at a big premium versus jet?
No, I mean, yeah, I think in the case of the retrofitting, we are going to develop to produce this SAF. I mean, we don't have a significant CapEx on that. What we are going to do is to use the current units to have a significant improvement of the margins of the product if we are able to produce SAF. Theoretically, let me say that what we are going to see in coming years due to these new projects is going to be an additional gain to our refining margin. Of course, I mean, year after year, that is recurrent, will be included in the budget and it will be included in the refining margin.
That means that the refining margin is, will be higher in coming years due to this effect. I mean, I take your point, that is going to have a clear effect in the gain on our refining margin. Thank you, Alessandro.
Okay. Thank you.
thank you, Alessandro. Our next question comes from Giacomo Romeo at Jefferies. Please, Giacomo, go ahead.
Hello, and thank you for taking my question. I think most of them have been answered, but maybe I'll ask one following up on your comments around the evolution of the biofuel production and the strong contribution that biofuel business is adding to your premium. I'm just wondering whether do you think this business effectively has reached the size that grants a separate disclosure? I think whether at what point you will think about providing separate disclosure for the biofuel contribution. The second question is around upstream volumes. You talked about volumes of 590-610. I believe that on the Q4 call, you talked about 610 production guidance for 2023.
I'm just wondering how to reconcile the slightly different production level?
Thank you, Giacomo. I mean, the evolution, I mean, the figures I have in mind today, we will be producing a total of biofuels of 700,000 tons a year, more or less in our refineries. These figures is going to be increased to 1.3, 1.35 by 2025. That is what is in our strategic plan. We have the target of producing 2 million tons by 2030, and it seems to me that we could even increase this, these figures.
You are right, that is, that is in some way, some kind of hidden business that is part of our refining, that is not easy, let me say, and we have even internal debate to split and to disclose separately all that, because, I mean, what we are doing is in the same units, sometimes mixing the feedstock and so on, producing the same product that is more decarbonized. It seems to me that that is going to arrive. We'll need, let me say, some time, but at the end of the road, I mean, we are the first interested guys in having a real disclosure.
I mean, to say to the market, because I know that the multiples you are going to apply to the legacy refining activity is not going to be the same that the multiples you are going to apply to the biofuel activity. I'm the first interested on that, and we'll do our best to have this disclosed in the close future. I mean, I'm not committing a design for that, Giacomo, because it's going to be a complex exercise, but we do our best to do it. Going to the forecast or the guidance, better said, with of the production. The guidance, I remember that was 590,000-610,000 barrels a day.
It was this range in February. The first quarter, the figure, has been close to the high range of the figure, 608,000 barrels a day. Our best approach today for the year, could be, I mean, the production, sorry, year to date, the four first months is at 605,000 barrels a day. I mean, let me say that our best forecast today is fully aligned with the guidance and probably with the upper part of the guidance. Thank you.
Thank you, Giacomo. Our last question comes from Biraj Borkhataria at RBC. Please, Biraj, go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my, another set of questions. Just two quick ones. How much Venezuelan crude did you process in Q1? I think you've given the figures for three Q4 and then Q2, but just for Q1, what was the number? Secondly, on the, as a follow-up to the gas demand question, when you're looking at optimizing for, you know, the mix of gas, LPG, naphtha and so on, what timeline are you thinking about? Do you have to take a view on gas for.
Yeah, 1- 3, you know, more months? Is this kind of these adjustments made on a daily basis? I'm just trying to get a sense of how responsive that gas demand can be to price. Thank you.
Biraj, I mean, going to your first question, figures I have in mind that you have processed something close to 700,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude oil. It seems to me that we are going to process, in the second quarter, I mean, the full part of this million barrels that are arriving this days to Cartagena, and probably a part of the rest of the 1 million that is going to arrive in coming weeks. Something close to 1.5 million barrels, more or less, because probably in time terms, we don't have enough time to process the 2 million barrels cargo that is going to arrive. That isn't an approach with that.
It's going to depend on the exact figure of arriving and the technical process of that. let me say that is, they make day after day on daily basis. The programming we have is changing or taking decisions about the operation of the refinery. Of course, we have inertias, and sometimes, I mean, it's better to sustain 3, 4, 5, 6 days, the same kind of operative. I mean, if we see a dramatic increase in gas prices, we will be ready to change, I mean, in 1, 2 days, the fuel consumption of our refineries, of course, depending of the logistic, depending of the product we could have around and so on. My point is that is not planned month after month.
That is changed on daily basis. Thank you, Biraj.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. That was our last question. At this point, I will bring our first quarter conference call to an end. Thank you very much for your attendance.