Telefónica, S.A. (BME:TEF)
Spain flag Spain · Delayed Price · Currency is EUR
3.794
-0.004 (-0.11%)
Apr 28, 2026, 4:00 PM CET
← View all transcripts

Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 24, 2022

Operator

Good morning. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Telefónica's January to December 2021 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a Question- and-A nswer Session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. To cancel your question, please press the pound or hash key. As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Adrián Zunzunegui, Global Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Adrián Zunzunegui
Global Director of Investor Relations, Telefónica S.A.

Thank you. Good morning. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Telefónica's January to December 2021 Results Conference Call. This is Adrián Zunzunegui from Investor Relations. Before proceeding, let me mention that the financial information contained in this document has been prepared under International Financial Reporting Standards as adopted by the European Union. This financial information is unaudited. This conference call and webcast, including the Q&A session, may contain forward-looking statements and information relating to the Telefónica Group. These statements may include financial or operating forecasts and estimates or statements regarding plans, objectives, and expectations regarding different matters. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such statements. We encourage you to review our publicly available disclosure documents filed with the relevant securities markets regulators.

If you don't have a copy of the relevant press release and the slides, please contact Telefónica's investor relations team in Madrid or London. Now, let me turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. José María Álvarez-Pallete.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

Thank you, Adrián. Good morning, and welcome to Telefónica's fourth quarter results conference call. With me today are Ángel Vilá, Laura Abasolo, and Eduardo Navarro. As usual, we will first take you through the slides, and then we'll be happy to take any questions you may have. I would like to start by highlighting the strategic execution during 2021, which is delivering positive results. We remain focused on our core markets. We completed the biggest transaction in Telefónica's history, the JV with Virgin Media in the U.K., while the acquisition of Oi's mobile asset in Brazil got final regulatory approval and is expected to close in the coming months. We secure key five-year spectrum in Spain, Brazil, and the U.K., accelerated fiber deployments, and brought our German network quality to the highest market standards.

We also continued building a digital consumer ecosystem in Spain and Brazil in areas such as connectivity, entertainment, home wellness, and finance. We further reduce our exposure to Spain through portfolio simplification and debt allocation. We're implementing a new operational model, which together with CapEx optimization, allow us to reduce capital employed. At the same time, we now have a higher share of debt in local currencies, accounting for 28% of the group's total. Telefónica Tech again outperformed the market, increasing revenues in 2021 by over 30% year on year to almost EUR 1 billion. This was achieved while strengthening capabilities through acquisitions and best-in-class partnerships. In Telefónica Infra, ongoing value creation and crystallization continues, along with the creation of growth opportunities through fiber vehicle. This strategy was proven by the tower sales to American Tower at a record multiple.

Finally, our streamlined and digital operating model is delivering enhanced efficiencies with 80% of our processes already digitized and implementing technology solutions such as Open RAN, green energy, fiber, and 5G. We are focused on attracting and retaining the best talent, offering agile and flexible working, and striving to be at the forefront of innovation. Slide two shows the solid performance across our key metrics in 2021. First, our connectivity leadership was reinforced with group accesses growing by 3% to 369 million, and with strong traction in strategic areas that are key to economic growth, such as ultra-broadband, fiber, and mobile contract. We remain Western world leaders in ultra-broadband, with total ultra-broadband premises passed reaching 159 million as of 31 December .

Second, in 2021, sustainable growth was restored with revenues growing organically 2% year-on-year and OIBDA growing 1.4%. Third, free cash flow generation remained robust, with free cash flow excluding spectrum reaching almost EUR 3.8 billion or EUR 0.66 per share, well above the dividend per share of EUR 0.30. Our focus on smart capital allocation is reflected in the 14.2% CapEx to sales ratio, comfortably below our guidance. Fourth, net financial debt has decreased by a remarkable EUR 26.2 billion since the peak in June 2016 to EUR 26 billion at year-end, driven by completion of M&A deals and solid and steady free cash flow generation over the last years.

Finally, it is worth highlighting the group shareholders' equity doubled versus 2020 to EUR 22 billion, mainly due to capital gains booked along the year. Moving to slide three. Our focus on delivering sustainable growth is evident in our fourth quarter performance. Starting with the financial, we posted simultaneous organic growth and OIBDA growth for the third quarter in a row. At the top line, all business units are growing, and OIBDA has proven resilient, with an improving year-on-year trend in Spain. FX had a declining and minor impact in the quarter, and spot rates implied further tailwinds to come. The significant reduction in net debt in 2021 was achieved mainly through capital gains from M&A transactions totaling EUR 11 billion.

In addition, free cash flow excess spectrum cost improved sequentially in the last quarter to almost EUR 3.8 billion in 2021. We remain a customer-centric group. Commercial momentum improved in the quarter, driven by products and services with superior connectivity, outstanding digital experiences, and highly efficient networks. We also remain efficient in capital allocation, with CapEx allocated to next-generation networks being approximately 45% and committed to promoting inclusive connectivity. We continue to deliver on ESG, which is a core part of our strategy, including how we contribute to the economy in terms of GDP, employment, and fiscal contribution. Moving to slide four for our financial summary. Our full- year reported figures were impacted by capital gains, changing the perimeter of consolidation, and in the last quarter, by restructuring provision of EUR 1.4 billion in OIBDA, mainly in Spain, and an impairment in Peru.

Revenues reached EUR 9.7 billion in the fourth quarter, growing 3.1% organically, while OIBDA increased by 0.4%. Underlying OIBDA totaled EUR 3.2 billion, while net income for the full year was over EUR 8.1 billion, despite restructuring charges and the impairment mentioned earlier. Net financial debt for the year was EUR 26 billion, 26% lower than the previous year, and free cash flow reached almost EUR 2.7 billion. Slide number five highlights that we successfully achieved our recently upgraded 2021 guidance across revenues, OIBDA, and CapEx to sales ratio. We are also confirming today the payment of the second tranche of the 2021 dividend of EUR 0.15 per share, which will be paid in June through a voluntary scrip dividend.

The first tranche, EUR 0.15 per share, was paid last December, with 65% of shareholders opting to receive shares. In addition, we will propose to the shareholders meeting the adoption of the corresponding corporate resolution for the cancellation of 2.41% of shares held as treasury stock as of 31 December 2021. At Telefónica, we are committed to sustainability, and we align and measure our progress across our ESG pillars against the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We are reducing our environmental impact by using cleaner energy and shifting to more efficient technologies. We are taking our customers on a journey towards decarbonization by providing them with products and services, such as Eco Rating and Eco Smart, that enable them to monitor and reduce their environmental impact.

On the social side, we are committed to connecting the unconnected and bringing higher speed internet to as many people as possible. For example, we have now connected 2.4 million people in remote communities with mobile broadband in Peru. We also continue to innovate internally through our new innovation and talent hub, and externally through new programs to scale up startups. Furthermore, we are ensuring that our workplace are more inclusive. We continue to make progress on governance. Our Board of Directors has been restructured, and we now have a leaner and more diverse Board of Directors with 15 Board Members, nine of which are independent, and with female representing 33%. Finally, I would like to highlight that our progress has been recognized externally.

We have been included on the prestigious CDP A List for the 8th consecutive year for our leadership in climate action, and we have been ranked first worldwide in the World Benchmarking Alliance Digital Inclusion Benchmark. Telefónica has set robust targets to underpin our ESG commitments, and we have summarized the main ones on this slide. We will reduce our carbon footprint by becoming net zero in Scope 1 and 2 emissions in our main markets by 2025, and across our whole footprint and our value chain by 2040. By 2030, we'll be using 100% renewable energy in every market we operate. We have made tangible commitments to become a zero-waste company by 2030.

We plan to reuse 90% of customer premise equipment by 2024, recycle 98% of waste, and introduce eco-design criteria in all our branded equipment by 2025. We have also set objectives to monitor how we are contributing to decarbonization of other sectors by enabling our customers to avoid emissions via digital services and choose sustainable products and services. We will bridge the digital divide by promoting digital inclusion with 90%-97% connectivity in rural areas in the main markets by 2024, and we have committed to train at least 100,000 people every year in new digital skills.

We will promote gender equality by eliminating the pay gap by 2050 and achieving parity at the highest level of all of the business by 2030. Finally, we align our remuneration to ESG metrics, accounting for 20% of all employees' annual variable pay and an additional 10% of senior executives' long-term incentives. I will now hand over to Ángel Vilá to go through a detailed review of our business performance.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

Thank you, José María. Moving to Spain on slide eight, commercial activity improved in Q4, supported by a year-on-year improvement in churn to its lowest level since the second quarter of 2017, and record level of customer satisfaction. Convergent ARPU improved sequentially to EUR 90.4, leading to an ARPU in the second half of the year EUR 1.4 higher than that of the first half. We further strengthened our market positioning during the quarter. We acquired LaLiga content for the coming seasons at a lower cost and launched Fusión Digital Pymes, a digitalization solution that enable capitalizing on the European recovery funds in the SME segment of the B2B sector. On financials, Q4 revenue growth improved year-on-year to +0.5%.

OIBDA annual decline were reduced to -3.4% on captured efficiencies, mitigating higher energy costs and higher costs from strong sales in IT and handsets. Worth to note is the voluntary redundancy plan implying a provision of EUR 1.4 billion in Q4 personal expenses with a positive impact on cash flow from 2022 and an annual run rate of savings of around EUR 200 million from 2023 onwards. Once again, cash conversion stands out with an organic OIBDA minus CapEx margin of 27% in 2021. Finally, we are announcing today that Telefónica Spain is ready to launch in conjunction with Telefónica Infra, the process to create a FiberC o focused on lower density areas, targeting more than five million premises passed and open a substantial minority stake to potential investors.

Moving to Germany, we continue to have strong commercial momentum underpinned by the O2 Free portfolio and network parity, resulting in over 500,000 contract net additions and ARPU growth in the quarter. The 3G switch- off was completed in 2021, and the energy efficiency ratio of the network improved by 78% compared to 2015. The 5G network covered 30% of the German population by the end of the year. Looking at the financials, this commercial momentum has driven continued top-line growth of 3.1% year-on-year, with OIBDA expanding by 4% year-on-year in 2021. The company's three-year investment for growth program passed its CapEx peak in fiscal year 2021, resulting in an OIBDA minus CapEx margin of 14.7% in 2021.

Moving to Virgin Media O2, which completed its gigabit rollout on time across its 15.6 million premises passed during Q4 and is now the biggest contributor to the government's broadband target. 5G is also now available in more than 300 towns and cities and remains on track for 50% population coverage in 2023. As part of VM O2 ambition to roll out fiber further and faster across the U.K., Liberty Global and ourselves have initiated discussions with a number of potential financial partners regarding the creation of a network build joint venture. The focus of the entity will be on building a full fiber network of up to seven million premises in new greenfield areas by the end of 2027.

Commercial momentum remains strong, with the total base growing 5% year-on-year to reach 56 million at the end of 2021, driven by fixed broadband accesses growing by 3% year-on-year to 5.6 million and the mobile contract base growing by 2% year-on-year to 15.9 million. Looking at the financials, revenue was broadly stable in the fourth quarter, while OIBDA growth has slowed due to the return of some sales and marketing costs as well as increased investment in growth drivers. In 2022, VM O2 expects to deliver mid-single digit growth in pro forma transaction adjusted EBITDA before cost to capture, supported by improved top-line growth and the delivery of synergies so that the cash distribution to shareholders is anticipated to be GBP 1.6 billion. Moving to Brazil on slide 11, Vivo finished the year with outstanding commercial and financial results.

In mobile, contract accesses grew 8% year-on-year, improving the customer mix and lifetime value. In fixed, Fiber to the Home reached 4.6 million connections, an increase of 36% year-on-year as we expanded our fiber coverage in the most valuable areas across the country through organic deployment and via FiBrasil. Looking at the financials, we posted simultaneous year-on-year growth in revenues and OIBDA, with fixed revenues growing for the second consecutive quarter and efficiencies offsetting high levels of inflation. On ESG, we continued to make good progress this quarter, demonstrated by the inauguration of our first biogas facility and being ranked as a top telco in the LatAm DJSI, Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

Finally, after receiving the final approvals, the acquisition of Oi's Mobile asset is almost complete and will allow us to further improve the quality of our mobile network and reinforce Vivo's market-leading position. Moving to slide 12, Telefónica Tech, our sustainable, focused, fast-growing technology company, delivered superior revenue growth throughout 2021. Revenue almost reached EUR 1 billion in 2021 as growth accelerated to +50% year-on-year in Q4, driven by improving organic trends and further enhanced by M&A operations executed along 2021. Telefónica Tech, as a leading integrator of technology with strong operational capabilities, is already benefiting from the recovery of the economic activity and the digitization projects post-COVID-19, proven on the better revenue performance in the second half of 2021.

Telefónica Tech has delivered on its priorities, outperformed the market, enhanced its capabilities and scale, and improved its growth profile towards higher value services. Looking forward, a solid increase in sales well above revenue growth makes us predict a strong performance for 2022. Moving now to slide 13. Throughout 2021, Telefónica continued to focus on pursuing value creation opportunities and enlarging its Infra portfolio. In Germany, UGG launched operations in six federal states, and in Q4 accelerated the MOUs signed with municipalities, representing more than 170,000 premises passed. FiBrasil is on track to reach its deployment target with two million premises passed in 2021. On Net Fibra Chile continued its accelerated rate of deployment, reaching 1 million additional premises passed in 2021. In Colombia, InfraCo received all necessary regulatory approvals and the transaction closed in January 2022.

We continue to explore alternatives to crystallize the value of our infra assets and look for growth opportunities while assessing our optionality across all asset classes. This was demonstrated by the acquisition together with Pontegadea of KKR's stake in Telxius Cable at the beginning of the month, reinforcing our ownership in an extremely relevant asset. As I previously stated, we have initiated processes for the establishment of fiber co-vehicles in the U.K. and Spain. I will now hand over to Laura to take you through our Hispam operations and financial position.

Laura Abasolo
Chief Financial and Control Officer, Telefónica S.A.

Thank you, Ángel. Moving to Hispam on slide 14. Our strategy continues to bear fruit. Firstly, we accelerated value growth throughout the year with outstanding performance in contract, ultra-broadband, and pay TV. Secondly, we are implementing incremental and progressive operational synergies thanks to the digitization and simplification of our new operational model, creating a leaner and more efficient company. Thirdly, we continue to modulate our exposure to the region, reducing capital employed by 22% year-on-year. Finally, despite the tough macro and competitive environment, revenue, OIBDA, and OIBDA minus CapEx increased in both reported and organic terms. Turning to slide 15. Our net debt has been reduced by EUR 9.2 billion year-on-year to EUR 26 billion at the end of December 2021, or EUR 26.3 billion including post-closing events.

Thanks to resilient free cash flow generation of EUR 2.6 billion coupled with the completion of the strategic and inorganic initiatives, namely the sale of Telxius Towers and the VM O2 U.K. JV. Net debt to OIBDA ratio is now 2.59x , 0.2 below the 2.0 ratio. Looking ahead, we are well covered. Our liquidity cushion amounts to EUR 24.6 billion and the average debt life is up to 13.6 years, placing us in a comfortable position given maturities are covered beyond 2024. We have remained active as well in managing our debt with financing activity of EUR 12.8 billion in 2021 and 2022 year to date, including the financing of JVs such as German Fiber, VM O2, FiBrasil, and Cornerstone Operations.

We remain committed to ESG financing, which we plan to increase to over EUR 10 billion in the coming years. We have recently completed the refinancing of our main syndicated facility of EUR 5.5 billion which is now linked to sustainability objectives. I will now hand back to José María Álvarez-Pallete, who will wrap up.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

Thank you, Laura. Moving to slide 16. We are ready to commit for 2022. Our guidance includes 50% of VM O2 in the U.K., as it better reflects the reality of the group and provides a more comprehensive view of the Telefónica's managed business. U.K. is a core market for us, and as such, we devote resources to this core unit.

We guide for low single-digit growth in both revenues and OIBDA. A step forward from the 2021 upgraded guidance, in spite of added inflationary pressure. In terms of investment and even including the JV in the U.K., we stick to our guidance of up to 15% CapEx to sales. Investment peak remains behind. We will push for revenue growth in all our geographies, with main growth drivers in Spain and Brazil stemming from lower margin activities such as IT, new digital services and equipment. OIBDA performance will on top be more back-end loaded. In some regions, inflationary pressure will be more evident in the first half of the year, such as energy costs in Spain. Though we will continue to accelerate efficiency generation to offset those. Additionally, synergy realization in the U.K. and Brazil would add to OIBDA growth as they ramp through the year.

We will continue to closely monitor the macro situation and to manage our resources according to the evolution of the pandemic and potential new restrictions. We think we have left behind the worst economic impact. On dividends, we are announcing 0.30 EUR per share for 2022, payable in cash in two tranches, December 2022 and June 2023. We believe reasons that justify the voluntary scrip dividend implemented in 2020 have been mostly left behind, whilst we are confident in our free cash flow sustainability. As I said before, we are proposing to cancel 2.41% of Treasury stocks held as of December 2021, and we may as well consider using excess free cash flow to tactically buy own stock. To recap, please turn to slide 17.

First, in 2021, we delivered successfully against our strategic priorities, reinforcing our position in our core markets, reducing exposure to Telefónica Hispam, creating value and capturing growth opportunities through Telefónica Infra and Telefónica Tech, and significantly reducing debt by streamlining our operations and delivering robust free cash flow. Second, we successfully met our full-year targets, which were upgraded at our second quarter results. Third, investments during the last year have allowed us to deliver best-in-class CapEx-to-sales ratio, with enhanced ultra-broadband experience while promoting inclusive connectivity. Fourth, positive momentum continued in the fourth quarter, with growth in revenues and OIBDA and sequential improvement in free cash flow. Looking forward, we are confident in the outlook for 2022, and we are pleased to announce a dividend of 0.3 EUR per share in cash. Thank you very much for listening.

We are now ready to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. To cancel your question, please press the pound or the hash key. Once again, that is star one to register a question and the pound or hash key to cancel. We would kindly ask you to ask a maximum of two questions per participant. There will be a short silence while questions are being registered. Your first question comes from the line of Georgios Ierodiaconou of Citi. Please ask your question.

Georgios Ierodiaconou
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my question. I had a couple around Spain. The first one is around the OpEx phasing during 2022. I know in the third quarter, obviously it had an impact. The energy costs you managed better in the fourth quarter. Given the developments we are seeing, we'll be interested if you could give us any indications of-

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

Georgios, sorry, we're hearing you quite badly. I don't know whether you can closer mic.

Georgios Ierodiaconou
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Is it better now?

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

Slightly better, yes.

Georgios Ierodiaconou
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Perfect. I'll start again in case you haven't been able to listen to the question earlier. In terms of the OpEx phasing in Spain for 2022, you gave some indications of the negative impact in the third quarter. You seem to have managed it better in the fourth, but it would be great if you can give us any indications of how we should think about it in 2022 in light of the movements we are seeing in the energy markets as well. The second question linked to that is more on the top line in Spain. You mentioned during the presentation that Telefónica Tech is getting some of the benefit from what I understood in the European recovery funds.

I'm just curious if you can give us an update on what to expect on that front during 2022, both with regards to Spain and Telefónica Tech. I know one of your competitors are very optimistic about the impact they expect to see. I'm curious to hear from you. Thank you.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

Thank you, Georgios. This is Ángel . Let me take you a little bit on how we see 2022 in the OpEx phasing that you were talking about, but also a little bit on the outlook. As always, this should not constitute a guidance because we do not guide on specific geographies. Yes, we can give you some color on the trends we see now. First of all, in terms of how we see the market, we think it will continue to remain competitive in the low end but rational in the high end. We expect our commercial direction to continue sequentially improving, as you have seen in this fourth quarter. Little bit less so in the first quarter because we just increased a bit of more for more movement.

That always comes with a more muted commercial activity. Later on in the year, the commercial trend we expect to continue moving forward. Accordingly, we aim for slightly growing revenues in Spain. The main growth drivers, this partially is linked to your second questions, would be B2B, where we see continued momentum in IT growth. As I was saying in my speech, we are launching specific project products for digitalization of SMEs, which is a substantial part of what we expect to be European recovery funds disbursed in 2022 and so on in Spain. Also handset sales or equipment in general we see that should have traction in 2022 based on our new offer of mobile fusion with handset.

ARPU erosion should be lower in 2022 year-on-year, and continuing the trend that we're seeing quarter-on-quarter, and clear growth in digital services. This revenue growth, you know, when you look at equipment and you look at some of the digital and IT services, comes with a lower margin. We estimate that the margins in Spain to be in the high 30s% for the year 2022. This links clearly with your question on OpEx phasing. We expect it to be a better performance in the second half than in the first half. Several things are underpinning this expectation from a commercial standpoint.

As I was saying, a tariff repositioning in the first quarter will imply that we could have a muted quarter, but then this will improve the second half. The margin will be under pressure from energy prices. We are factoring in the first half a significant or relevant impact on this that will annualize from the second half, geopolitical situation. Allowing efficiencies in personnel will start from February onwards. The second or the final part of the year, we'll have also the benefit from the new La Liga deflation in the content cost. We expect the second half to be with better traction than the first half. With respect to CapEx, you should expect a similar weight to 2021.

I hope I've covered the moving parts that you were interested in the OpEx, and also a little bit on the top line in B2B.

Georgios Ierodiaconou
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Very clear. If I could ask one quick follow-up. I know you don't give guidance, but assuming no major shifts in the market, and I appreciate there's uncertainty around energy prices, is it realistic to expect the EBITDA to be flattish before the end of this year? Is that, you know, achievable under some favorable circumstances?

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

Well, I commented that we expect slightly growing revenues and margins in the high 30s%. You know, you can do the multiplications.

Georgios Ierodiaconou
Director and Equity Research Analyst, Citigroup

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of David Wright of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

David Wright
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Yeah, good morning, guys, and thanks for the very comprehensive presentation on ESG. Just on your comments, José María, on excess free cash flow to buy back or to potentially consider buybacks. You've obviously got the VM O2 recapitalization due earlier than expected, I think. That was announced a few days ago, and obviously that would benefit your free cash flow this year. Is that the kind of excess free cash flow that you're defining here? Or could we be talking about excess free cash flow from asset sales, for instance? When you talk about excess free cash flow, could you just elaborate a little on what that comprises? Thank you.

Laura Abasolo
Chief Financial and Control Officer, Telefónica S.A.

David, I will take the question if you don't mind. I think it's more a conceptual point of view. I mean, we are comfortable with our balance sheet. We have reinforced equity significantly. We have reduced net financial debt. We are fully committed to maintain our solid investment grade. Within all of that, if there are free cash flow which is in excess, and it could be, well, from dividends from our JVs, it could be from potential tax impact upsides, it could be for inorganic deals. Although, as you know, inorganic deals are not moved by a net debt reduction, but more for a strategic value creation. We could devote that as a complement to our shareholder remuneration. That would be the point.

Far in the previous years, and mainly in 2020 and 2019 with a scrip dividend, free cash flow has been devoted mostly to, or all of it, to the leverage. No, that would be the message behind.

David Wright
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Thank you for that, Laura. If I could ask just my second question. I think you also, again, José María, just in your concluding remarks, you talked about some synergy impact from Brazil and the U.K. to support growth through the year. Just to clarify, there's no sort of synergy from Brazilian consolidation in the guidance. I'm pretty sure there is not. Then when could you expect that deal to be complete, and should we expect you to come out and amend guidance on the back of that? Thank you.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

Hi, David. I will frame the question, and I will hand it over to Ángel for more detail. The answer is yes, we are including synergies coming from the Oi acquisition in Brazil, as well as we are including in the guidance the synergies realization in the U.K. For more detail in Brazil, I hand over to Ángel.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

Yes. We finally managed to align all those stars that had to be aligned, and we got all the approvals necessary for the Brazilian deal. We expect to close the deal in, we say, the first half of the year. We expect it to be as soon as possible within what is left of the first half of the year. As our colleagues in Brazil stated in their conference call yesterday, we will provide the full detail on the synergies estimations once we have closed the deal. Now, the process of the split of the Oi mobile asset into three sub assets, one to be acquired by each one of the players is taking place.

We prefer to have the final, full detailed picture of the assets to be bought. Also, you know, there are customary price adjustments to what we pay. When we have the full detailed picture, which again will do as fast as possible within what is left of the first half of the year, we'll provide. I should say that we have had, in the past, substantial cases in Brazil where we have announced, delivered, and over-delivered the synergies that we announced. It was in the GVT transaction also when we combined Vivo with Telesp after acquiring the 50% of Portugal Telecom. The track record of delivering synergies and in the previous cases that I mentioned, over-delivering the synergies are already in our track record.

David Wright
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

I'm sorry. Could I just clarify? I may be misunderstanding, and I apologize, but your guidance says constant perimeter of consolidation. What you're telling us that there are synergies from the Brazilian deal in the guidance.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

Yes, because we are not changing the perimeter. It's still Vivo. I mean, we are acquiring customers, and we are acquiring the spectrum. We are not acquiring a company.

David Wright
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst, Bank of America

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Luigi Minerva of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Luigi Minerva
Senior Equity Analyst covering Communications and Digital Infrastructure, HSBC

Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is on your announcement about the fiber co in Spain. I just wanted to just understand in principle whether you think that there is value in setting up these frameworks with minority investors only when there is new footprint to deploy. Essentially, what is the rationale in just focusing it on the rural areas? Is that because you want to deploy more there, and then that's why you are welcoming minority investors? More broadly, I was wondering what is the end game with these fiber structures that you're putting in place. Do you expect eventually to be completely out of these fiber vehicles? Or perhaps medium term, you would like to buy out your co-investors?

I presume the answer is different depending on the market, but I leave it to you. Thank you.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

Hi, Luigi. We are setting the fiber co in Spain in the format of a regional fiber co in low density areas and not proceeding with other fiber project in Spain. We are doing this because we think is what would create the most attractive project for Telefónica and for potential investors. It's an industrial project, not a financial engineering one. It's a project that aims for growth, so this would be a growing fiber co, which is targeting still unbuilt areas. In these areas, there is a lower or even absolutely low risk of overbuild, and as a result, the fiber co should have higher percentages of take-up of premises.

It's also a project that would be eligible for fiber subsidies from the European funds and others. Of course, it will benefit from Telefónica Spain know-how in building and operating fiber networks, also Telefónica Spain being the anchor customer of this company. We are building it with a partial brownfield contribution and then a greenfield build to reach in excess of five million premises passed. With this initial brownfield contribution, the company has a cash flow profile that will allow potential investors to leverage their upstream bid costs while keeping control level of debt at the FiberCo itself, because we plan to continue to consolidate accounting-wise that FiberCo, and we do not want to contaminate the parent's balance sheet nor the ratings.

Very importantly, this FiberCo will be born with the ambition to trigger consolidation and rationalization of the Altnet FiberCo space in Spain. We think that this, alongside with the FiberCo that we're launching with Liberty and VM O2 in the U.K., these are the two most attractive projects for infrastructure investors nowadays in Europe. As you were asking, our FiberCos that we have in Germany, that we have in Brazil, in Chile, in Colombia, now in the U.K. and Spain are aiming for growth and investing in areas that are still uninvested because we think that it's the way to continue progressing in our infrastructure.

We are the absolute leaders in fiber in Europe, and José María was explaining our position globally of leadership in fiber, but we also are mindful of the return on capital employed. Regarding the endgame, you saw in the slide in the presentation the portfolio we have or we are building of different FiberCos. For us, fiber is technology of the future. All options will be open, but these are very attractive, valuable FiberCo assets whereby third-party investors will have put an objective level of valuation for each one of them, you know? We are creating value, we are creating growth, and at the same time, we are doing it very mindful of the return on capital employed.

Luigi Minerva
Senior Equity Analyst covering Communications and Digital Infrastructure, HSBC

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pilar Vigo of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Pilar Vigo
Head of Financial Sponsors Group and Head of Corporate Bank, Credit Suisse

[Non-English content] . I have two from my side, please. First, I had a questions on the customer mix in Spain. You had previously given a number for the mix of low, mid, high-end customers in your retail base. Can you please provide an update on that? Could you tell us how much is O2 out of this mix and the impact of the Fusión product? What would be the percentage of convergent customers now on O2? Second, you announced the creation of the FiberCo in Spain for low density areas. What is your thinking regarding the creation of a FiberCo for your entire Spanish business?

Is this now off the table with today's announcement, or is it still something that you would consider? Thank you.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

Thank you, Pilar. On the mix of the convergent portfolio, we stopped disclosing this mix because we realized that what we were qualifying as high, medium, and low value would not correspond to what would be the corresponding ARPU with respect to our competitors. What we would be calling medium or low value would be the average ARPU of our following competitors. We were kind of creating. First giving some commercially sensitive information to the market, and also creating a categorization which was not consistent with the rest of the players, no.

What I can say is that the convergent value mix is being supported by our strategy of combining more products in the bundle, including, for instance, the handset offering, the fiber speed, the data, the content, also with new B2C digital services that we are including as an ecosystem. Yes, there is some polarization in the market, so you should assume that the higher end, where we continue to have a higher traction compared to the rest of players. The low end, which is very competitive, are polarizing more, so compared to the medium. You know, in the end, the result, you can see the blended in the increase, the sequential increase in ARPU.

The reduction in churn, we have 1.37%. It's the lowest since 2017. We have the highest Net Promoter Score, and we have widened the gap with our competitors. I can give you some figures regarding O2, yes. O2 has been contributing in the base positively, in both fixed broadband and in mobile postpaid. This is increasing our weight in what we used to call before the lower end of the spectrum now.

Pilar Vigo
Head of Financial Sponsors Group and Head of Corporate Bank, Credit Suisse

Mm-hmm.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

With respect to the big FiberC o, I don't know, José María, if you want to comment on that one.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

Yeah. This is the Fiber Co that we are announcing today is the fiber co we are executing in Spain. All other projects are analyzed and postponed. This is the Fiber Project in Spain. Thank you.

Pilar Vigo
Head of Financial Sponsors Group and Head of Corporate Bank, Credit Suisse

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Fernando Cordero of Banco Santander. Please go ahead.

Fernando Cordero
Head of European TMT Equity Research, Banco Santander

Hello, thanks for taking my two questions. The first one is more on the, let's say, short term, and I would like to understand how do you see the wholesale revenue flow evolving in the Spanish market? You have already given some guidance on the whole Spanish operations. Just to understand how the wholesale could be evolving considering some deceleration that we have seen in the fourth quarter. Also the second question with a more longer term view, and coming back to the discussion on the endgame on the different fiber cos. You're already having by now, let's say, different JVs or different potential dividend sources in the future.

I would like to understand, although it is not going to be a fact in the short term, given the capex effort. What is your expectation regarding the potential dividend flow to come from the different fiber cos that you are having right now in Chile, in Colombia, FiBrasil, in Germany? So in that sense, trying to understand what could be the potential contribution to the free cash flow, also considering the increasing relevance of dividends from JVs. Thank you.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica S.A.

Hello, Fernando. With respect to the wholesale revenues, we expect them to remain rather stable in 2022. We have growing MNO. We continue to see traction in the fiber wholesale. Important, you know, with pandemic becoming an endemic, there should be further roaming reactivation. On the contrary, we will have the same way that we have lower content cost in from La Liga, we will have lower resale of TV revenues compared to the seasons where we had the full La Liga content to be resold. With respect to the cash flow profile of the different FiberC os, now they are in the investment phase.

Second, as you can see in the slide that we have described the fiber cos and let me go, it's slide number 11, number 13. We have different levels of ownership of these FiberC os. UGG, which is 50% owned by Allianz, and 50% owned by Telefónica, split between Telefónica Infra and Telefónica Deutschland. This is fully ring-fenced from the parent, financially, rating-wise, and so on, and it's in the investment phase. It's a company in which we are still, for some time in investment phase.

FiBrasil, which is 50%, CDPQ, and the other 50% split equally between Telefónica Brasil and Telefónica Infra, is a company that was created with a contribution of brownfield, partially an acquisition, and the rest is being financed mostly from the funds contributed by CDPQ and leverage. Telefónica group contribution was the brownfield we did initially. This, again, it's ring-fenced. It's not cash consuming. For us, we should not have additional contribution. On the Chilean and Colombian FiberC os, KKR is leading those companies. We are a minority shareholder. With respect to the Spanish FiberC o we are announcing today, as I said, it will start with significant brownfield contribution that will be cash generation from the beginning.

It will be able to access Fiber development subsidies, so this is not gonna be cash consuming for the group in any significant way. The greenfield JV 50/50 in the U.K. It's early days. We need to see in the discussion with potential investors what will be. In the scenarios that we are designing, the equity ticket is quite limited for the promoters and Liberty Global and ourselves. You know, these will be assets that we need to develop over the coming years. Here we are looking at this stage to capture growth and to improve even further the leadership positions that we have in ultra-broadband in several of these markets.

It's still early to say and to project cash flow distributions from these companies.

Fernando Cordero
Head of European TMT Equity Research, Banco Santander

Okay. Thank you. Very clear.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stan Noel of Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Stan Noel
Director of Equity Research, Bernstein

Good morning. I've got two questions. The first one is about your portfolio strategies. In the presentation, you showed quite a long menu of infrastructure analogies. You had a slide on Telefónica Tech. I assume you're still working on reducing exposure in Hispam. Maybe can you remind us what is your portfolio strategy and what are your top priorities? The second question is about the open letter that you published in the Financial Times last week, along with other CEOs. In this letter, you're asking for the network investment burden to be shared in a more proportionate way with the few digital content platforms who account for the majority of traffic on your networks. I was wondering what kind of what specific business model do you have in mind to implement?

What's the likelihood that regulators will allow you to go ahead? Thank you.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

On the strategy, we remain very focused on the 5 pillars of action that we announced back in November 2019. The first one, focus on our four core markets, being Spain, Brazil, the U.K., and Germany. Reducing capital or optimizing our capital exposure to Latin America. The third one being Telefónica Infra, the fourth being Telefónica Tech, and the fifth being a leaner and more digitized operational model. We stick to what we announced back in November 2019, and everything we do, you should framework that on those five pillars of action. Therefore, we have been accelerating the execution over the last two years in spite of COVID, and we are really focused on that. In terms of the overall regulatory situation or the overall regulatory view, COVID has accelerated digitalization everywhere.

In fact, volumes, data volumes have been growing 50% recurrently year-on-year. Out of that growth, more than 70% of that growth is coming from video streaming and is coming from social networks. Therefore, what we are saying is that in Europe, namely, the pressure on investment, the pressure on return on capital and on returns, and the pressure on cost of capital needs an urgent decision. Europe needs an industrial policy. Therefore, I think that the way to measure relevant markets, it's wrong. I think that now we are no longer competing with traditional ecosystem. We are competing with an enhanced and amplified ecosystem. I'm gonna give you an example.

In the case of Spain, we are supposed to be a dominant player on the pay TV market because according to the local regulator, there are roughly six point something million pay TV customers in Spain, and we have more than 50% of the market share. The reality of the Spanish market is that there are more than eight additional pay TV customers coming from streaming platforms, and therefore, the total market size is not six point something million, it's more than 15 million, and therefore, we are no longer the dominant player. We have some restrictions, several restrictions on our commercial offer. Our position is that time has come for a change, that we need to be aware that the European Sector needs a revamp.

That revamp needs that this famous consolidation of four to three is no longer four to three, it might be from 100 to 99. That's our position. I think that the COVID and the pandemic has accelerated this controversy, has accelerated this anomaly on the market. That's our position, and that's where we see regulators' mindset evolving.

Stan Noel
Director of Equity Research, Bernstein

Thank you.

Adrián Zunzunegui
Global Director of Investor Relations, Telefónica S.A.

Okay. Thank you, Stan. I'm sorry you have no time for further questions. I will now hand over to José María for closing remarks. Thank you.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica S.A.

I hope we have been able to provide you enough information through the slides and through the Q&A session. In any case, should you have further questions, please contact our IR department, and thank you very much for your interest in our company. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Telefónica's January to December 2021 Results Conference Call is over. You may now disconnect. Thank you.

Powered by