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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 25, 2021

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Good morning. Welcome to Telefónica's conference call to discuss January, December 2020 results. I'm Pablo Girón, Head of Investor Relations. Before proceeding, let me mention that the financial information contained in this document related to the fourth quarter and full year 2020 has been prepared under international financial reporting standards, as adopted by the European Union. This financial information is unaudited. This conference call webcast, including the Q&A session, may contain forward-looking statements and information relating to the Telefónica Group. These statements may include financial or operating forecasts and estimates or statements regarding plans, objectives, and expectations regarding different matters. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, including risks relating to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, that would cause the final developments and results to materially differ from those expressed or implied by such statements.

We encourage you to review our publicly available disclosure documents filed with the relevant securities market regulators. If you don't have a copy of the relevant press release and the slides, please contact Telefónica's Investor Relations team in Madrid or London. Now, let me turn the call over to our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. José María Álvarez-Pallete.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

Thank you, Pablo. Good morning, welcome to Telefónica's fourth quarter and full year results conference call. With me today is Ángel Vilá, Chief Operating Officer, and Laura Abasolo, our Chief Financial and Control Officer. As usual, we will first walk you through the slides, then we will be happy to take any questions. I would like to start by highlighting the material progress against strategic objectives made along during the year. First, across our four core markets, Spain, Germany, U.K., and Brazil, we have improved our value proposition, increasing our premises passed with fiber to more than 25 million in Spain and 15 million in Brazil. In the U.K., the combination of O2 and Virgin Media is progressing to plan. Whilst in Brazil, our joint bid won the auction for Oi mobile, which will further strengthen our market position when completed.

The legal separation of HispAm was successfully completed in the year. In parallel, we continue to optimize efficiencies, increasing profitability and reducing our equity exposure. In addition, we have announced the launch of an independent and neutral fiber network vehicle in Chile. In Telefónica Tech, carve-outs is almost completed and fully functional. In the meantime, we continue to develop our digital capabilities and build our IoT and big data portfolio, aimed at range at vertical B2B markets and new cloud solutions in edge computing. We progressed as well at Telefónica Infra, where we continue to realize value. The sale of the Telxius towers to American Towers for EUR 7.7 billion implied a record multiple of 13.5 x pro forma OIBDA after leases, and will reduce net financial debt by EUR 4.6 billion.

Additionally, we're in advanced negotiations with a major international financial investor for the construction and offer of a neutral, independent fiber wholesale network in Brazil, and recently signed a partnership with Allianz for FTTH rollout in Germany. Finally, we continue to simplify our operating model, with 79% of processes being already digitalized, up 10 percentage points against last year. We also signed an MoU with leading European telcos to promote Open RAN, with successful technical testing in the U.K. and Germany during Q4. Moving to slide two and our 2020 performance. We saw good momentum in the last quarter, with organic revenue and OIBDA trends accelerating across all segments. Customer engagement improved, with NPS in our four core markets increasing 7 percentage points versus last year, and churn declining for the fourth consecutive quarter.

Group OIBDA minus CapEx returned to organic growth at 1.9% year-on-year, with margin improving by 0.7 percentage points. This reflected incremental cost efficiencies and digitalization that accelerated with digital sales growing 12 percentage points versus last year to reach 31% of total sales. As a result, organic OpEx was down 2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020. Of particular note is the 2020 earnings per share, which stood at 0.24 EUR and grew 54.3% year-on-year. As a result of prioritized investment in next-generation networks, we now reach 135 million premises passed with ultra-fast broadband. Free cash flow improved remarkably throughout the year. We therefore continue to deleverage, reducing net financial debt by EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 35.2 billion at year-end.

This will decrease further by the additional EUR 9 billion derived from our recently announced inorganic transactions, an amount equivalent to 25% of our year-end net financial debt. Slide 3 shows our progress for financial performance in a challenging year. In 2020, reported revenue declined 11% year-on-year, largely attributable to unfavorable Forex trends, which accounted to 6.5 percentage points of the decline, changes in the perimeter, and others. OIBDA declined 12.7% year-on-year on a reported basis, or 5.7% organically, excluding negative Forex effects, as well as changes to the perimeters and others. Free cash flow per share increased to EUR 0.37 in the fourth quarter, reaching EUR 0.88 per share in 2020. Worth highlighting is that free cash flow generated in the last five years amounts to EUR 25 billion, with 2020 free cash flow being in line with the last five years' average, despite the challenges.

This cash flow stability has been a major driver in bringing down our debt by EUR 17 billion since June 2016. Our reported results summarized on slide four reflect the significant impact of COVID-19, which caused a decline in revenues and OIBDA of 1.9% and EUR 1 billion respectively in 2020. It also reflects Forex headwinds, which reduced revenues and OIBDA by 3.1% and EUR 1.2 billion, respectively. Revenues reached EUR 10.9 billion in the fourth quarter, declining 2% year-on-year in organic terms, while OIBDA stood at EUR 3.7 billion, down 2.8% year-on-year in organic terms. We saw improving trends in our core markets throughout the year, with both revenues and OIBDA declines narrowing. OIBDA less CapEx over revenues increased 0.7 percentage point versus the same quarter last year in organic terms. Showing increased operating leverage and CapEx savings despite continued investment in high-priority areas.

Underlying net income reached EUR 1 billion in the fourth quarter, growing 4.9% in 2020 and surpassing the EUR 3 billion mark. We delivered outstanding growth in free cash flow in the fourth quarter, which increased by double digits to almost EUR 2 billion, lifting full-year free cash flow to almost EUR 5 billion.

Net financial debt continues to decline, reducing by 6.7% versus December 2019 to EUR 35.2 billion. Turning to slide five. Fourth quarter of 2020, year-on-year trends accelerated versus the previous quarter, with improvements seen in both revenues and OIBDA across all segments of the business. The revenue decline narrowed by 2.2 percentage points versus the third quarter, while the OIBDA decline narrowed by 5.4 percentage points. In addition, we maintain our long track record of efficiency gains, further increasing our organic OIBDA minus CapEx margin by a fifth consecutive year-on-year to 20.4% at the end of 2020.

Slide six shows we delivered against our full-year guidance of a slightly negative to flat organic OIBDA minus CapEx, thanks to effective operational management to preserve cash. We are also confirming today the final dividend for the year of EUR 0.4 per share. The first tranche of EUR 0.2 per share was paid in December through a scrip dividend, with 67% of shareholders opting to receive new shares, further enhancing our financial flexibility. The second tranche, EUR 0.2 per share, will be paid next June through voluntary scrip dividend. This dividend is more than covered with our strong free cash flow per share, which stood at EUR 0.88 in 2020. Our capacity to deliver to society was challenged as never before in 2020.

We were able to sustain our business performance by keeping our ESG performance at the center of our strategy, which is based on three pillars: to help society thrive, build a greener future, and lead by example. For the first pillar, we continued our significant contribution to the countries in which we operate, 0.5% of GDP, as well as almost 1 million jobs. We also made significant tax contribution of EUR 8.2 billion. We kept delivering on our already ambitious environmental agenda, beating our targets and setting new ambitious ones aligned with the required urgencies of climate change. We reduced emissions by 61% while continuing to increase our use of renewable energy to 88% of our total usage, and reduced energy consumption by 81% relative to executing network traffic, thanks to our network transformation plans.

We have also contributed more than ever to the decarbonization of the economy, thanks to the increase of digitalization during the COVID-19 crisis. The group has also delivered sustained improvement in other ESG metrics. Our customers and society in general valued our role and performance through the pandemic, and our reputation, measured through RepTrak, reached a record of 66, 10 percentage point over last year. Looking at gender diversity, we achieved an increase of 1.8 percentage points to 27%, something I'm proud of considering this figure was below 20% five years ago. Among the range of ESG awards and recognitions we received throughout the year, I want to highlight, for the second consecutive year, we lead the ranking of digital rights, which is a prestigious third-party reference. Finally, Telefónica is committed to achieving net zero emissions in our four main markets by 2025.

I will now hand over to Ángel to go through a detailed review of our business performance.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Thank you, José María. On slide eight, we show the performance of the Spanish business. During Q4, we took steps to cool down pricing competition, enabling us to continue with our more-for-more strategy. We announced the fiber speed upgrade to 1 Gbps and agreements with DAZN and Disney Star to include their premium content in our offer. These actions temporarily lead to lower gross adds and muted KPIs, but do deliver positive results in terms of churn and value mix and add further sustainability to our business. By year-end, the conversion base remained stable. ARPU improved in the second half of the year, and churn was reduced year-on-year. Hence, the value of our conversion business has grown even with the toughest macro environment in decades.

In addition, we have the largest fiber to the home network in Europe, with the uptake reaching 29% as a result of higher accesses connected in both the retail and wholesale businesses. Continuing with Spain, let's move to financials on slide nine. Service revenue accelerated its improving trend sequentially across all revenue lines, especially in the second half of the year, mainly on the back of a solid convergent ARPU and record IT sales. Continued cost containment and benefits from digitalization led to an improved OIBDA trend quarter-on-quarter, with an OIBDA margin of almost 41% in 2020. Despite having rolled out more than 2.1 fiber to the home premises and switch on 5G to cover 78% of population, 2020 CapEx declined to 11% of sales.

As a result, Telefónica Spain proved once again its ability to deliver solid cash generation amid very challenging conditions with an OIBDA minus CapEx of EUR 3.6 billion, virtually flat year-on-year. Finally we are committed to achieving net zero emissions in 2025 in our Spanish operations. Moving to slide 10, Telefónica Deutschland maintained its strong trading momentum in Q4, with the O2 free portfolio continuing its good traction and O2 contract churn registering historically low levels at 1%. Our improved perception amongst customers is a result of a successfully equalized network quality as the company met all its LTE coverage obligations. In the current mobile network test conducted by trade magazine connect, the O2 network secured a very good rating for the first time, reflecting the enhancement in network quality driven by the 4G rollout.

In terms of financial performance, Telefónica Deutschland met all its full-year revenue, OIBDA, and CapEx to sales guidance. Network development and targeted customer focus continued to drive growth momentum, with revenues increasing 2.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while OIBDA growth continued to improve strongly up to 3.4% year-on-year in Q4 versus 0.7% in Q3. Full-year CapEx increased by 4.8%, driven by investments for future growth in 4G and in the 5G launch, now active across 15 cities. In terms of our sustainability efforts, Telefónica Deutschland stated aim is to be carbon neutral by 2025. With 5G consuming 90% less energy per byte than 4G, we are very well placed to reach this target. Turning to Telefónica UK on slide 11, we continue to be the U.K.'s number one network.

We have grown our base by 5% to reach over 36 million mobile customers with market-leading NPS and customer loyalty that continued to improve in 2020. Looking at the financial performance, top-line trends have been adversely affected by COVID impacts. With solid trading in the fourth quarter, we saw improvements in mobile revenue from hard work and SMIP, containing the total revenue decline in 2020 to 4.4%. OIBDA grew by 2.5% year-on-year in Q4, while declining by 2.4% in the full year 2020. It is worth highlighting that this is the fifth consecutive year of margin expansion in the U.K. business, driven by our flexible operating model and continued efficiency gains. OIBDA minus CapEx grew by 2.7% year-on-year in 2020 as a result of strong cost control and CapEx flexibility with an increased focus on growth areas such as 5G.

In line with the group's ESG agenda, Telefónica UK has committed to become the first U.K. mobile network to achieve net zero carbon by 2025. I am also pleased to say that the O2 UK Virgin Media joint venture is progressing to plan, and we expect it to close around the middle of this year. This transaction values O2 UK at 7.8 x OIBDA, and will create the U.K.'s connectivity champion with a joint enterprise value of GBP 38 billion with an expected cash inflow for Telefónica of GBP 5.5 billion-GBP 5.8 billion, subject to customary adjustments in this type of transaction. Let's now move to the performance of our Brazilian operations on slide 12. In 2020, we have reinforced our leadership in mobile with a record 33.6% market share and accelerated our transformation to fiber.

In contract, we added 729,000 new accesses in Q4, following a more for more strategy, and thanks to the increasing demand for high quality and reliable services. At the same time, churn improved to 1.1%. In fixed, we passed almost 5 million premises with fiber to the home during the year, doubling what we did in 2019, for a total of 16 million. We want to continue capitalizing on the fiber opportunity, using different models to address different profiles. In line with this, we are in advanced talks to create a neutral wholesale fiber network vehicle where both Vivo and Telefónica Infra will hold equity stakes, targeting more than 5.5 million premises passed in four years. Looking at our financial performance, we delivered outstanding OIBDA minus CapEx growth of 8.5% versus 2019, with a margin expansion of 2.5 percentage points.

This outstanding result was supported by our continuing focus on driving OpEx efficiencies and optimizing capital allocation. The acquisition of Oi's mobile business is progressing to plan, with closing expected in the second half of 2021. This will further enhance Vivo's position in the market, allowing us to deliver even higher service quality while creating significant value through synergy generation. On the ESG agenda, Brazil is committed to achieving net zero emissions in 2025. Moving now to slide 13. Telxius continued to deliver a strong performance, demonstrating the resilience of its business model throughout the COVID-19 crisis. In the tower business, the portfolio increased 46% year-on-year, with the number of third-party tenants up 15%, driving both organic revenue and OIBDA growth above 40% year-on-year in the quarter.

In the cable business, a second round of contract extensions with relevant clients was executed, resulting in an increase in net full contract value in the semester of approximately EUR 620 million, despite a consequential short-term negative impact on revenues and OIBDA. As a whole, Telxius delivered accelerated year-on-year revenue and OIBDA growth of 11% and 13% respectively in the quarter. The divisions OIBDA minus CapEx margin reached 46.9% for the full year. On top of this, Telefónica Infra successfully crystallized the value of our assets. Last month, Telefónica Infra announced a landmark agreement with American Tower Corporation for the sale of Telxius tower division in Europe and in Latin America, as José María mentioned at the beginning of the presentation. Slide 14 shows how Telefónica has been focused on pursuing value creation opportunities in fiber.

Telefónica's footprint has grown exponentially in recent years, reaching almost 50 million fiber own premises passed in 2020. Additionally, including our wholesale agreements, our ultra- broadband footprint reached 135 million. Penetration of ultra- broadband connections over total fixed broadband accesses rose to 77%. That is 6 percentage points more than in 2019, driven by a strong technological transformation that provides visibility to long-term revenues. In Germany, as announced last October, we've signed an agreement with Allianz to create a neutral wholesale operator called [Non-English content] , which stands for Our Green Fiber in German. This new company has received approval from the European Commission, with construction starting this year and a plan of passing more than 2 million premises in six years.

In parallel, in Chile, we've announced the creation of a vehicle called InfraCo, which will also enable us to accelerate fiber deployment with no CapEx impact and reach 3.5 million premises passed by the end of 2022. Telefónica Chile will contribute its footprint of 2 million premises passed at a very attractive 18.4 x EV to OIBDA, while holding a minority stake of 40% in the company, while KKR will hold 60%. This transaction is expected to reduce net debt by $0.4 billion. In Brazil, we are in advanced negotiations with a leading international financial investor for the construction of a neutral, independent fiber optic wholesale network.

The new company, FiBrasil, that will also have the participation of Telefónica Infra, aims to accelerate expansion of fiber to new locations through a CapEx-light model for Telefônica Brasil and capture value through third-party penetration. Telefônica Brasil is carving out 1.6 million brownfield premises passed into FiBrasil, and the target is to reach over 5.5 million fiber-to-the-home premises passed over the next four years. As you can see, fiber-to-the-home networks are fast consolidating their position as a core infrastructure asset class, with buoyant M&A activity at very rich valuations across geographies. We have optionality to continue exploring further growth and value creation opportunities across our footprint. Turning to slide 15.

Revenues from tech services, that is cloud, cyber, and IoT and big data, grew consistently by 13.6% year-on-year in 2020 to EUR 1.5 billion and proving to be the fastest-growing and most resilient business despite the challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. It is important to highlight the competitive integrated portfolio, the strong operational capabilities, extensive commercial reach, and its large base of B2B customers. Growth was mainly fueled by the corporate segment, where Telefónica plays a key role in driving digital transformation, thanks to the company's unique ability to address the converging demand for cybersecurity and cloud services. Telefónica tech companies are already established and running, with close to 50% of revenues already transferred to them. The new structure will help us to capture revenue growth and efficiency gains ahead. We met our targets and have outperformed the market once again.

I will now hand over to Laura to cover HispAm and the financial results.

Laura Abasolo
Chief Financial and Control Officer, Telefónica

Thank you, Ángel. Turning to HispAm on slide 16. Our focus remained on reducing exposure to the region without jeopardizing growth, thanks to alternative investment models that have been implemented in the last few quarters. Both this extra focus on value growth and our differential assets in the region, contract accesses and fiber connections show a very robust performance at record low churn levels. Sound commercial performance in value segments was coupled with efficiencies fostered by acceleration in digitization and CapEx optimization that allow us to post OIBDA minus CapEx growth versus 2019 despite the tough year. Let me highlight, we are reducing significantly the average capital employed, close to 20% versus 2019. Leveraging on an asset-light model through co-investment deals with ATC and ATP, the announced InfraCo in Chile, 4G serving in Colombia, and AT&T agreement in Mexico for infrastructure rationalizations, among others.

In addition, our capital structure improved with significantly increased leverage in Colombian and Chilean pesos respectively. Finally, we are crystallizing value through disposals, as demonstrated by the Central American sale, LATAM Tower sales to ATC, and the announced InfraCo in Chile. Slide 17 shows how FX headwinds are mitigated at the free cash flow level through our natural hedge. The impact of FX in the fourth quarter was lower than in Q3. In 2020, FX detracted 6.5 percentage points year-on-year from revenue growth and eight percentage points from OIBDA, mainly due to Brazilian real depreciation versus the EUR. Nevertheless, the negative impact of EUR 1.2 billion at OIBDA level translated into just EUR 231 million at the free cash flow level.

On the other hand, FX had a positive impact of net debt of as much as EUR 1 billion in 2020, which increases further to EUR 1.8 billion if we include leases. On slide 18, you can see how a strong free cash flow generation was last year, topping EUR 4.8 billion and comfortably allowing us to cover dividends, hybrid coupons, and commitments while helping to bring down net debt. We paid down EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 35.2 billion as of December 2020. Once we take Telefónica's recently announced strategic and inorganic initiatives into consideration, net financial debt will decrease by an additional EUR 9 billion to the EUR 25 billion mark. We remain committed to reducing our net debt going forward through solid organic free cash flow generation, as proven even during the worst operating environment in decades, and further inorganic measures.

Slide 19 shows our proactive and innovative approach to financing in 2020, navigating a volatile market to raise EUR 17.9 billion in total, including EUR 6.3 billion related to the Virgin Media O2 UK deal financing. We have been at the forefront of ESG financing as the first-ever telco issuer to tap the green hybrid market and more recently as the first telco to issue a sustainability hybrid bond. In addition, we have reduced our maturities to 2022 through EUR 2 billion equivalent of liability management exercises in 2020 and 2021 to date. We have extended our average debt life to close to 11 years while maintaining a robust liquidity cushion of EUR 21.4 billion, which comfortably accommodates upcoming maturities. Should we include the recently announced inorganic deals, our maturities will be more than covered for the next three years.

All this financing activity has been executed at historically low interest rates, enabling us to reduce our effective interest cost to three.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

Sorry. There is something wrong. I think now it's better. No? Can you please check?

Laura Abasolo
Chief Financial and Control Officer, Telefónica

I'll continue. No, there's still something wrong.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

Operator, can you please fix this?

Laura Abasolo
Chief Financial and Control Officer, Telefónica

All this financing activity has been executed at historically low interest rates, enabling us to reduce our effective interest cost to 3.11% as of December 2020, a 38 basis point improvement from the previous year. I will now hand back to José María to wrap up.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

Thank you, Laura. 2021 guidance reflects our expectations that recovery and normalized trends will be more evident from the second quarter onwards. We expect revenue and EBITDA trends to stabilize in 2021 in year-on-year organic terms, and CapEx to sales to trend back to normalized levels of up to 15% of sales. In 2021, we foresee no general confinement supports post the first quarter, as well as recovery in global economy, especially as from the second half of 2021, through. To condition the trade-off between vaccine coverage and the pandemic evolution. This is the premise in which our guidance is based. COVID-19 impact is expected to be lower than in 2020, recovery to turn more evident as from the second quarter of 2021, with higher demand in B2B segment, this along with continued efficiency in cost and accelerated digitalization measures.

In addition, there will be changes in the consolidation perimeter along 2021 derived from inorganic transactions. Guidance 2021 is calculated under organic criteria, homogeneous consolidation perimeter 2021 and 2020, and average FX 2020. Having said that, the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 and how the pandemic develops is a risk going forward, and despite anticipating some recovery for 2021, we will continue to manage our resource according to results evolution. On dividend, we are announcing EUR 0.3 per share for 2021 to be payable through voluntary scrip dividend in December 2021 and June 2022. Our decision to adapt the dividend allow us to combine the need for financial flexibility in a year where several spectrum auctions concur, with expectations of a strong free cash flow generation and significant inorganic transactions, and still want to incentivize our shareholders and provide them with attractive by sustainable returns.

To conclude, I'd like to leave you with a few takeaways from today's results. First, we have proved our resilience in challenging times during 2020 and continued to deliver for all stakeholders. We delivered on our 2020 guidance and proved our cash preservation capabilities while strengthening our business positioning. Second, we executed material progress towards our strategic objectives with reduced exposure to HispAm, value creation and realization from Infra and Tech, as well as significant development across our four core markets. Again, we sold our towers at the highest ever multiple, both for the industry and in Telefónica's history. These achievements help us deliver significant progress in deleveraging, both organically and inorganically. Once the inorganic deals have been completed, net debt will be further reduced by as much as EUR 9 billion or 25% of year-end debt.

Finally, we are announcing a positive outlook for 2021 and dividend of EUR 0.3 per share. Thank you very much for listening. We are now ready to take your questions.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Georgios is asking us about fiber. He says that we have already done the deal in Chile, and we have the one in Brazil on the way. The question is, if the plan is to maintain the control in Brazil, and what other options we have for similar deals in other countries in HispAm? This will be the first question from Georgios.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Thank you, Georgios, for your question. We are announcing different formats of fiber deals depending on the objectives and the market conditions. The deal that we announced in Germany is a deal of co-control, to grow from a greenfield point of view in Germany. It's a deal structure, 50% Allianz, and the 50% held by Telefónica will be half Telefónica Deutschland and half will be Telefónica Infra. The aim of that deal is to grow in a greenfield manner. The deal in Brazil is a different format of deal. We have divided the country into three tiers of towns and cities. Tier 1 is going to be developed with our own CapEx. This will be 100% owned by Telefônica Brasil.

There is a Tier 2 that we are addressing through either agreements with fiber owners like American Tower that we commercialize or with the projected vehicle called FiBrasil, where we will have co-control with a partner. 50% will be owned by the partner, 50% will be split equally between Telefónica Brasil and Telefónica Infra. This is a deal which is slightly different from the German one because it has a brownfield component. Vivo will contribute 1.6 million premises, and the rest will grow via greenfield and potentially through acquisitions to reach 5.5 million in the next four years. There could be other fiber deals in Hispanoamérica. We just announced the deal in Chile. These are countries where the fiber penetration is still not as high, and there are opportunities to create value in the region.

Laura Abasolo
Chief Financial and Control Officer, Telefónica

FibreCo, we are very satisfied. We have created the largest neutral wholesale operator in Chile, and we have also maximized valuation. As you know, the enterprise value is above $1 billion, and that results in a multiple of over 18 x EBITDA. Moreover, we will be having a 40% stake in an InfraCo, which will have greater value for the future. This is serving many of the targets we have around HispAm, which is modulate exposure, but at the same time, go back to profitable growth, which we have already managed in 2020, despite the difficult conditions, and continue contributing to net debt reduction. This transaction is going to reduce net debt in approximately $0.4 billion. I think there's some read-across this transaction because it needs the great value of our infra assets.

If you look at the ultra-broadband premises passed in HispAm, those are over 12 million. If you think we have been selling this at around $500 per home, that would imply a total value just for the fiber in HispAm of EUR 6.1 billion, just extrapolating that, which is the consensus right now for HispAm is around EUR 7.7 billion. I think the opportunity and optionality here is huge, and at the same time, this is compatible with continuing growing profitable in the region.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Thank you, Laura. The second question from Georgios is about fiber in Spain. Is that something that you consider? What are the considerations that would prevent us from taking similar decisions? Understanding that you don't need greenfield funding, it can help with the leveraging.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Well, our operation of fiber in Spain is very well developed. Spain is a highly penetrated market. It's leader in Europe. It's a market where we have already several commercial agreements in place to wholesale the fiber. As you said in your question, that is not the greenfield opportunity that we see in the places that we are setting up new FibreCo's with partners. We have a very valuable and very well-developed fiber in the country, which is, for us, strategic. It's optionality for the future, we are not contemplating at this stage transactions regarding the fiber. It's strategic.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

The next questions came from Mandeep. Mandeep is asking, Mandeep from Redburn, Mandeep Singh, asking in Spain, if there is any Prosegur revenue contributions in the Spanish revenues, any revenues coming from the joint venture with Prosegur, and how much, and if there are benefits from copper sales, I understand the central offices in EBITDA. The second question is regarding U.K. spectrum, if they will bear the cost and then contribute it to the joint venture.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Thank you, Mandeep, for the question regarding Prosegur. The joint venture is 50/50% owned. It's account by Telefónica Spain as per the equity method. It does not consolidate the OIBDA from the Prosegur joint venture, neither the revenues. Yes, Telefónica Spain is accounting in its figures the commercial commissions from selling to our customers those alarms that are being supplied by the Prosegur joint venture.

Partially, the results are included in the terms of the commercial fees that Spain gets from selling those. The results of the alarm activity itself is accounted through equity method. Regarding copper sales, we continue to decommission our legacy copper switches. This is allowing us to undo investments that we have in our perimeter, be it through selling real estate, which has been more active in prior years than this year, and also regularly selling copper sales, which are accounted as other revenues in Telefónica Spain numbers. Regarding the U.K. spectrum, the auction is expected to start in the month of March. It has two tranches of spectrum being sold. Since the JV has still not closed, this is a process that will be run single-handedly by Telefónica, and the cost will be borne by ourselves, and then the asset will be contributed into the JV.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Okay. The next question comes from Michael Bishop from Goldman Sachs. The question is about free cash flow. Michael says, given the strong bid in 2020 versus your guidance of more than EUR 4 billion, do you have a similar guide or ambition for 2021, given consensus is only at EUR 2.5 billion free cash flow 2021?

Laura Abasolo
Chief Financial and Control Officer, Telefónica

Thank you for the question. We do not guide on free cash flow, although we remain focused on delivering a very robust free cash flow, as it's been the case in 2020, and also hope to beat the consensus as it's been the case in 2020. Let me tell you that free cash flow is an absolute priority, and we expect it to comfortably exceed dividend payments, the labor commitment, and the hybrid coupons payment, and will continue to be a sustainable driver for continuing deleveraging. I will elaborate a little bit, although it will not be guidance, as I said at the beginning, but if you start from our operational guidance, we are expecting recovery and normalizing trends that will be more evident from Q2. Those will stabilize, and also CapEx to sales will trend back to normalized pre-COVID level, up to 15% of sales.

This will put some pressure on operating cash flow year-over-year, will allow to continue capturing future growth. Below operating cash flow, we will continue with our business as usual working capital measures. We will optimize and continue optimizing our financial payments with our strategy that considers cost, also life currency and liquidity needs. For tax payments, we have a midterm guidance of 20% with the unavoidable volatility around advanced payments and refunds. That sense, in 2020, we had some positives, such as spectrum auctions being delayed for 2021, low level of payments in advance, also, as you know, we successfully hedged free cash flow, that also flowed through financial payments. You can count on us managing every single line, starting from stabilizing operational trends and optimizing all other financial items. Of course, CapEx and resources in general.

There's still uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 and how the pandemic will develop is a risk going forward. Despite anticipating recovery for 2021, we will definitely continue managing our resources according to result evolution. All in all, we have proven resilience in challenging times, and we have many levers to maneuver, and we are closely monitoring our free cash flow generation, and that will be the same in this year. We keep on improving efficiency and prioritizing our investments to adapt our spend towards revenue and profitability-generating sources. We will continue working in this direction, Michael. Free cash flow generation is a priority for us.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

The next question is from Mathieu Robilliard from Barclays. Mathieu is asking about the business in Spain. If you can discuss recent competitive trends in Spain, and what it will take to stabilize the top line, and when.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Thank you, Mathieu, for the questions on Spain. In this quarter, Telefónica Spain has shown market leadership by deliberately reducing commercial pressure during the first half of the quarter. We have been deliberately cooling down the market since late Q3, offering lower discounts and shortening promos. We were the first mover, and this has penalized our gross adds by early Q4, but other players followed us. The Q4 campaigns, the Black Friday, Christmas, have been softer than previous years. The promotions that could have been by some players 60% for six or 12 months now are generally reduced to three months promos. We are seeing not only Q4, but also now that in February, all promos in unlimited mobile data have been removed by all players. For instance, Orange is decommissioning some of its lower-end brands.

This has allowed, as I was saying in my speech, to enable more formal initiatives. We saw that from Vodafone in November, from Euskaltel in December, and ourselves also in January 2021. This decision, which was on purpose to cool down the market and had to be exerted by the market leader, will still hit us in our commercial metrics in Q1 because of expiration of promos, but clearly is paying off in terms of market repair. It's paying off in terms of lower churn, and it's paying off in bringing in high-value subscribers. Churn has improved month-over-month in Q4 for all segments. The convergent gross adds mix has improved sharply. 74% of the Fusión gross adds in the second half of the year are in the mid to high end. That is 19 percentage points more than in the first half of the year.

ARPU is virtually stable quarter-on-quarter, and the year-on-year trend is improving. As you have seen, these results are allowing us to improve our revenue trend, are allowing us to comply with what we had been stating that ARPU in the second half would be higher than in the first half. Also with cost control and efficiencies have allowed us to have OIBDA margin higher in the second half than in the first half. Your second question was regarding revenue stabilization. What we see, and again, this is the outlook for Spain, and this is not a guidance and should not be taken as such. Of course, it's highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic. What we see is that the sequential revenue recovery trend has clear momentum.

We have been able to sustain the conversion base, with growth in contract mobile and fixed broadband, especially in fiber. We are launching some more formal actions. We are getting traction from new digital services. This in B2C, but in B2B, what we see is that we have achieved record growth in IT services that far more than offset the communications erosion. Roaming should be recovering as the pandemic recedes. Wholesale will continue to be strong. All of these trends are supporting revenue in Spain towards stabilization or even slight growth for 2021. At the same time, we're expecting our EBITDA margins to be around the 40% level and CapEx to be benchmark around or up to 12% for the Spanish operation.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Also related to Spain, there are questions coming from Jakob Bluestone from Credit Suisse and Josh Mills, from Exane. I think that they have been already covered part, because Jakob is asking about the outlook for Spain in revenues and EBITDA, also regarding what we see ahead in terms of subscriber evolution. This same question regarding the evolution of subscribers and the changes between high and low value, is being asked by Josh Mills. How we see, in relation with this, if we continue to see value in football content, in sport content in general, to continue including it in our offer. If we would perhaps offer more football content to lower-end subs, and if this changes our view on how much this content is worth ahead of upcoming auctions.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Thank you, Pablo, for your 27 questions. Okay. On the outlook, I think that I elaborated, we see sequential recovery trend in revenues to have clear momentum, which should support for the factors I responded before, stabilization or even slight growth in revenues with the margin EBITDA being around 40%. I should add to what I said before, that the second half will be better than the first half, given the comms and the evolution across the year and CapEx to be below, 12%. The question around also, what are the perspectives for evolution of KPIs. We are deliberately working at cooling down the market. We are with a clear strategy of going for value, not for volume. Others may choose to go for better cosmetic KPIs at the expense of financials and sustainability. That is not our case.

Here we are in the high end, focusing on retention, and the low end, we are focusing on acquisition. On the football or on the content. Football again has proven to be a commercial engine in the high end, especially in COVID times. We have been growing in high-end subs. As I was saying before, in the gross adds volume, the mix has been excellent. In the second half of the year, 3/4 of the gross adds have been in mid to high end. This has allowed the conversion ARPU to improve. I should also say that football gross adds in the second half have been double the ones of the first half. We have also been able to get an improved ARPU in the second half than in the first half. I don't know if I responded the several elements of your question, Pablo.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

I think you did. Carl Murdock-Smith from Berenberg is asking about the dividend and the guidance. On the dividend, he says, can you talk about the logic of cutting the dividend but maintaining a scrip option? Surely it would make more sense to cut the dividend to a sustainable level and pay it in cash, then rebuild from there. How would you react to the accusation of that persistent use of a scrip option like a series of mini rights issues? On guidance, on what does stabilization mean in numerical terms. There are two ways to think about stabilization, something around zero or something closer to zero than 2020 trend. He thinks that the right one is the first one, a kind of -1 to +1 one range.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

Well, thanks for your question. Taking the first one on the dividend, the decision of proposing a dividend payment of EUR 0.3 per share in a voluntary scrip option is based on the following framework. First, we really want to speed up our internal transformation process, and therefore we want to preserve a strong free cash flow generation, and at the same time, being able to invest in the growing part of our business. The second one, keep in mind that we'll keep exploring inorganic options, and that's helping us to reallocate capital into growth areas, and at the same time, to reduce leverage. We'll be closing transactions during this year likely, that would represent more than EUR 9 billion of additional debt reduction or additional funds flowing through the business.

In 2021, it's a year in which we will be most likely facing spectrum auctions in three of our four core markets, Spain, the U.K., and Brazil. We are still surrounded by some degree of uncertainty around COVID-19 impacts, and therefore, though the outlook is positive, keep in mind that we want to preserve a sound investment-grade rating. Taking all this into consideration and adding that we think that it is important to preserve an attractive level of shareholder remuneration, we think that EUR 0.3 per share meets all the targets. It reinforces the company, both strategic and financially. It provides flexibility in uncertain times. It accelerates the leverage, and it provides an attractive return. In terms of preserving the scrip option, we think that through a voluntary scrip, we have been able to keep some flexibility and at the same time, offering greater optionality to our shareholders.

Remember that 2/3 of our shareholders decided to reinvest their dividends, and we think it's important to keep that flexibility once the outlook is still affected by COVID-19. Keep in mind as well that any excess free cash flow will be devoted to neutralize the dilution. In the year 2020, we have partially offset the dilution by canceling 1.6% of the share capital. Therefore, the share buybacks are going to be used as a tactical tool to control those levels of dilution to adapt to the excess funds coming from M&A, when we are able to preserve a sound investment-grade rating. Therefore, in summary, we think that it implies more flexibility, and at the same time, it can help us to accelerate our strategic transformation. In terms of the guidance, for us, stabilization means that we see better trends.

Ángel has been describing in some of the markets, namely in Spain, we see better trends growing up. We have momentum in operational trends. We still have some uncertainty surrounding COVID. COVID effect should be fading away all along the year, and that has significant impact in places like roaming or SMEs revenues or B2B or handset sales. Therefore, we see a progressive improvement in the metrics. For us, stabilization means close to stable, mildly positive, mildly negative.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Thank you. Keval Khiroya from Deutsche is asking two things. One, the first question is, could we have an update on the timing of inorganic actions in LATAM? Any views on how you are thinking about disposals versus spin-off? The second is, can you please help us to understand better the fourth quarter Spain retail revenue? You mentioned stronger support from IT revenues and improving trends in non-convergence revenues. Any more color on what the extra support from IT revenues would be helpful? If the non-convergence revenue improvement, if this is sustainable?

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

I take your question on LATAM. In November 2019, we established as a strategic priority to reduce our exposure to LATAM in order to mitigate our exposure to FX volatility. During 2020, a lot of things have been done. First, as Laura has been saying, we have moved towards an asset-light model, where we have been doing a very selective CapEx allocation towards growth. We have become an MVNO in Mexico. We have accelerated network sharing agreements like the one that we have in Colombia. We have reduced capital intensity by selling towers and monetizing fiber assets. All those divestments have been done at very attractive multiples. In the case of the divestment of Central America, above 6x OIBDA, and in terms of towers or fiber assets in the high teens.

In order to give you an example, as Laura was mentioning before, the fiber transaction in Chile has an implied value of per home pass of $500. That means that we have significant optionality because we have 12.1 million home pass in LATAM. We have also increased debt in local currency significantly. As a result, We have reduced capital employed in Latin America during 2020 by more than 20%. We are moving into a lighter asset model, more naturally hedged structurally, and more easy to hedge in terms of free cash flow growth. We will certainly keep exploring inorganic transactions, but only if it creates value for Telefónica shareholders. In the meantime, we will manage the region according to our SOT priority to reduce capital exposure to LATAM.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Thank you.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Excuse me, Pablo.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Yeah.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Just regarding the Spain retail revenue trends, let me try to give you some more color. The fourth quarter revenues in Spain declined by 2.9% year-on-year. This rate is 1.5 percentage points better than in Q3, and would have been a positive 0.5% ex-COVID impact. If we decompose it between handset and service revenues, handset sales continued to have a weak evolution of -24.5% in the quarter. It was -26% in the third quarter, so still weak. While service revenues at -2.1% year-on-year have improved 1.5 percentage points versus Q3, despite roaming and lower comms, because we have had other impacts, quite positive, like IT in the B2B segment, record growth at 23% year-on-year. We have also had new digital businesses impacting, and also wholesale has been quite positive. The tariff upgrade has contributed as well to this revenue improvement.

If I were to decompose the acceleration or the improvement of trend between Q3 and Q4, the softening of COVID impacts has been helping us, and this IT reactivation to record high as well. We have had better performance of the consumer non-conversion revenues, far lower recline than previous. Wholesale has been strong, but a little bit of a drag from some of the wholesale revenues. All in all, ex-COVID, the top line in our Spanish operation would have increased 0.5%.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Soomit from New Street also has questions regarding the Spanish business. He asked if we can provide an update on thoughts on the European Recovery Program implications for Spain and Movistar, and if we have an idea of potential timing of this process during 2021.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Thank you, Soomit, for the questions. The Spanish government has already announced and set up plans for the European recovery funds, which will be to the tune of EUR 140 billion for Spain in the next few years. Those have to comply with the priorities that have been set up by the European Union, and we see opportunities in the digitalization axis and also in the environmental axis, given that many of our new investments are going to go in the direction of net zero, our net zero target in 2025. These digitalization areas will amount to EUR 20 billion overall figure. This is more than the 20% European community threshold for digitalization. Good news. We are already making specific proposals to benefit from these funds, and we think that we are best positioned to make the most out of these subsidies.

Materialization of this would be later in 2021, and then in the years to come. We see a high chance of Telefónica benefiting from these measures, but as soon as they become more precise, we will be able to factor them in our outlooks.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

I think that we have to finish, but I think that we have one final question, because Fernando Cordero and Fernando Abril from Santander and Alantra were asking about Spain and HispAm, that I think that all the questions they had have been already answered. Akhil Dattani from JPMorgan is also asking about infrastructure, that I think has been already answered. The Spanish KPIs, that has been already covered. The guidance and what the stabilization means, that has already been covered. He has another question that I don't think has been covered, which is the Spanish consolidation. Akhil says there is a lot of speculation in the market at the moment of a Vodafone MásMóvil deal. Should a deal materialize, how do you think it impacts your retail and wholesale outlook?

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

Well, first, let me framework the question, and then I will pass it over to Ángel for the detailed operational impact. We think consolidation is welcome. It makes no sense that there is so much players in Europe. Just to give you two specific references, average revenue per access in Europe is half average revenue per access in the U.S., according to Analysys Mason figures. Also investment in 5G per capita in Europe is something around EUR 94, while it is $150 in the U.S. I think that consolidation makes sense. Intramarket consolidation makes sense, and we will certainly support that if that was to happen in Spain.

Ángel Vilá
COO, Telefónica

Not sure that there is much more to add. Current market structure seems hard to sustain. This seems to be a consensus view now. Looks like a solution is needed. A market consolidation may be one. We have always said that we are supporters of market consolidation. If this were to develop, we would be supporters.

Pablo Girón
Head of Investor Relations, Telefónica

Thank you very much all of you. Apologies for the technical problems. I've been in 46 quarterly calls and this never happened. This is the last one, and something had to happen. Let me turn the call over to José María to finish the call.

José María Álvarez-Pallete
Chairman and CEO, Telefónica

Before concluding, there is something important to say. I would like to thank Pablo for his great contribution, commitment, and dedication during his 10 years heading the IR team. I know it has been tough, but he was totally up to the challenge. Now it's time for him to assume new responsibilities within the group, and you know he has been appointed Chief Financial and Control Officer of Telefónica Tech, which is our fastest growing unit. I'm sure he will excel in his new role, as he has always done. Thank you very much for your participation, and we certainly hope that we have provided some useful insights for you. Should you still have further questions, we kindly ask you to contact our Investor Relation department. Good morning, and thank you