Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Aditya Birla Real Estate Limited Q3 FY25 earnings conference call hosted by Nomura. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please press star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Akash Gupta from Equity Research, Nomura. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Gupta.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone.
Good afternoon.
On behalf of Nomura, I welcome you all to the Q3 FY25 earnings conference call of Aditya Birla Real Estate. We have with us from the management, Mr. R. K. Dalmia, Managing Director of Aditya Birla Real Estate, K. T. Jitendran, MD and CEO, and Mr. Snehal Shah, CFO. Sir, we will start with the call with opening remarks from the management, which will be followed by a Q&A. Over to you, sir.
Okay. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the earnings conference call for the third quarter and nine months of financial year 2025. Let me now take you all through the financial highlights, followed by the business-wide operational highlights. For the third quarter of financial year 2025, the consolidated turnover of continuing operation declined by 4% year-on-year to ₹946 crore. EBITDA for the quarter was reported at ₹18 crores. With EBITDA margin reported at 1.9%, while the net loss for the quarter was ₹37 crores. For nine months of financial year 2025, the consolidated turnover of continuing operation grew by 18% year-on-year to ₹3,206 crores. EBITDA for this period was ₹241 crores, with EBITDA margin reported at 7.5%. The net profit of continued operation for this period was ₹3 crores.
Now, let me take you through some of the key highlights across our business vertical, starting with the real estate business. During the quarter, the Indian real estate sector recorded strong sales, which consisted of factors such as a large space requirement, advanced amenities, and a desire to secure and well-designed living spaces. Premiumization continued to remain the defining feature in the residential segment. Q3 25, the real estate business performed very well, with booking value increasing by 257% year-on-year to ₹675 crores at our already launched projects, and collection increased by 175% year-on-year to ₹501 crores. The revenue of Birla Estates grew by 117% year-on-year to ₹184 crores, driven by continued deliveries at projects: Birla Alokya in Bengaluru, Birla Vanya in Kalyan, and Birla Navya Phase 1 in Gurugram.
Adhering to our commitment of diversifying the portfolio while catering to demand for spacious homes, we acquired a 70-acre land parcel in Boisar for our first-ever plotted development project. In other updates, Birla Aurora has been awarded the prestigious Net Zero Energy Existing Building certification by the Indian Green Building Council. Also, Birla Anayu Walkeshwar has received LEED Gold III certification, reaffirming our commitment to energy efficiency and global sustainability. Let me also take this opportunity to provide some clarity regarding the Honorable Supreme Court order on land bearing CS 1546 that appeared in media publication of Times of India. The Worli West land comprises of freehold and leased land. The leased land, which is under Supreme Court order measuring 25,544 square meters, or equivalent to 6.31 acres, and has a development potential of approximately 955 lakh sq ft with INR 5,000 crore booking potential.
This has no impact on Birla Niyaara project as land parcels are different. Additionally, there would not be any impact on the long-term plan of the company through this order, as the company had planned to develop this post three to four years. It is important to note that Birla Estates added a total of 63,000 crores GDV till date, and we have strong business pipelines across our key markets of MMR, NCR, Pune, Bengaluru. We plan to stay on course with our long-term growth plans. Lastly, our outlook on the sector continues to remain optimistic, driven by increasing urbanization trend, rising disposable income, and government investment infrastructure. With the ongoing reduction in unsold inventory, India's real estate sector is strategically positioned with resilient and dynamic futures, effectively addressing overhang concerns. Now, moving to the pulp and paper segment.
Q3 2025, paper, board, and tissue prices continued to witness a downtrend due to weak domestic demand, rising finished goods inventory, and rising input cost pressure from increasing wood and imported pulp costs. Average net sales realization for the quarter went down by 6% year-on-year and 3% within the previous quarter. While production volume fell by around 15% year-on-year, sales volume decreased by 16% year-on-year. That resulted in EBITDA declining by 79% year-on-year. Writing and printing paper segment witnessed a soft market demand in Q3 financial year 2025. The board segment faced challenging market conditions in Q3 with price correction taken by domestic needs for machine coverage. The company continued to implement various cost reduction initiatives to counter these market conditions, like trial of using bagasse pulp in the middle layer of board without compromising on quality.
Bamboo usage in fiber line was increased from 14% in Q1 to 31% in Q3 to reduce the cost of captive pulp. Additional capacity of chippers was utilized to store wood chips instead of wood blocks, thereby reducing downtime in pulp mills. On the sustainability front, the company developed 138 nurseries in 13 districts to increase wood catchment area, with about 110 lakh plantations completed till Q3 25. The company generated around 44 metric tons of compressed methane gas (CMG) from wastewater and utilized the same instead of LPG in tissue machines. The company is also taking various strategic measures, like conducting a management leadership workshop, mission-average, with a leading facility. We also reworked the coffee market strategy to revamp the product portfolio. Additionally, B2C strategic initiatives are also in the development stage.
On the market outlook, prices have receded in writing and printing paper segments at the end of Q3. On the market outlook, prices have recovered in writing and printing paper segments. At the end of Q3 and Q4, realization is expected to be higher, while the operating environment in the tissue segment is expected to be challenging in Q4, given the disruption from the entry of new players and adverse demand-supply balance in the domestic market. In both segments, both volume and pricing outlook in Q4 remain subdued, given market conditions and competitive intensity from low-cost import. With rising domestic competition, we are making efforts to develop export markets to obtain orders with a positive contribution margin and ensure machine coverage. Export and paper segments are expected to increase from Q4. With that, I will now conclude our opening remarks, and we can start the questions and answer session.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and 1 on your touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question comes from the line of Akash Gupta from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. We'll take the first question once the question queue assembles. So, sir, we did not have any launches in the third quarter in the festive season, and now we are saying that we'll have roughly six launches in the fourth quarter. So I just wanted to understand, where are we with respect to RERA timelines for these six projects, and how confident are we that all these six projects will go through? My second question is with respect to the loss in your real estate segment this quarter on the P&L. I just wanted to understand, could you give us a brief background as to why do we have a loss in the third quarter for the RESI segment? Thank you so much.
Okay. Hi, Akash. Good morning. Yeah. So our launch calendar for this quarter, largely based on the RERA clearances, is we are expecting Birla Trimaya and Birla in Sangamwadi, which is in Pune. We are expecting these two launches in February. Also, we are expecting to launch Sector 31 in Gurugram Barmalt project in February. And we're expecting two launches in March. One is in Sarjapur, Bengaluru, and the other one is a new phase of Navya in Gurugram. So together, we expect to launch about INR 8,000 crore of new projects worth of inventory. So with that, it's our confidence that we'll be able to achieve our guidance.
Akash, on the loss part of real estate, basically, the reason is, of course, our corporate overheads are going up, and we were expected to realize some EBITDA from the handover of our completed properties in Kalyan, particularly. That has not happened in this quarter, so we could not recognize that revenue as well as the profits from that, which will probably happen in this quarter.
I see. So,
Akash, I just want to assure you all of our margins for these projects are all protected. We are running a margin of at least 25%-32% in all the projects which we are handing over. And overall, it's close to about 30%-35% margin. But just because the revenue number has not come in while our overhead is evenly distributed across this thing, we have this blemish there in the.
Okay. Okay. Got it, sir. And, sir, one more question for FY 26. What is our pre-sales guidance? How are we looking at that?
So we'll refrain from giving any guidance at this point of time. Let's see about the quarter four performance.
Akash, essentially, as K. T. mentioned, that we have a few launches in this quarter, we have to see what is the performance of those launches. And based on that, we have to consider the sustained sales of the balance, including our existing launched properties. And based on that, we'll work on the number, and probably end of quarter four, we'll be able to give you a better guidance.
Understood, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Dixit Doshi with Whitestone Financial Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. So my questions are related to this recent Supreme Court order. So some of the things you have already covered in the opening speech, but a few doubts regarding that. So firstly, is the litigation only in the west part, or is there any litigation on the east part of the land as well? Secondly, this west part is a 10-acre. So the entire 10 acres is under litigation, and only the judgment has come for 6 acres, or only 6 acres was under litigation, and 4 acres is absolutely clear. The next part is whether we will have to develop any units for the BMC, and if yes, then how much it will cost us. I have a few more. If you want, I can cover the entire thing.
Thanks. Yeah. Hi, Dixit. So just to give a little more clarification on this litigation aspect, which was already covered by Mr. Dalmia in the opening statement. So the litigation is clearly restricted to that 10 acres of land on the Worli. Sorry. Yeah. The litigation is restricted only to the Worli West land, not to the East land. East land is totally clear, and there's nothing to do with it. On the West land, which is approximately 10 acres, 3 and a half acres was freehold, where there is no problem. It's absolutely clear. If you remember, a few years back, we had said that we have won in the High Court, etc., on this 6 and a half acre land, which was a long lease land from BMC. So that is where the order got reversed in the Supreme Court.
So the thing remains that only the six and a half acres is where we have suffered a loss in this litigation. Otherwise, the rest remains intact. Also, it's pertinent to mention that there is a lot of obligation in terms of building the workers' colony there, etc. So if the land goes, obviously, the responsibility and the liability of redevelopment, etc., also moves to the owner of the land.
Okay. So in case this land goes, so we will not have to build anything.
Right. You're absolutely right.
Okay. And is there any, I mean, is there any space where we can appeal against this order, or it's full and final done?
These legal options we are exploring at this point of time.
Okay. And just regarding this, if we surrender this land, I mean, whether we will be getting any additional FSI, TDR, or anything, and is there any option where we can give them this land somewhere else and keep this land?
We can surrender it. It is their land.
Yeah. It's the shift. This 6 acres, you clearly understand, Worli East is 30 acres now because we also acquired the Wadia land. So that is completely a separate story. There are no issues on that. This is a 10-acre property of which partly 4 acres, roughly, is our own leasehold land. So there is no litigation or any encumbrance or anything on that land. So that is free for us to develop. And we maintain that we will develop that. The issue is only on the 6-acre land. 6-acre land belongs to BMC. So BMC has leased it to us, and we wanted to take possession of that, which the Supreme Court has said now you can't get it. So therefore, now everything related to that is with BMC. So we don't have to surrender because it is not our land that we have to surrender.
It is their land now at the moment.
Okay. Understood.
I hope you are clear about that. So anything they have to do on that land is their liability. We have absolutely no liability on that land.
Okay. Understood. Understood. And my second question is regarding the Niyaara project. So how much units are unsold in the first tower and the second tower?
Yeah. We have sold how much? One second.
414 units.
Yeah. So in the first tower, about 400 units are sold out of 414. Second tower, about 86 units are sold out of 148.
Okay, and any thoughts on tower three or?
Yeah. That we are planning to bring it in this coming year.
FY 26?
Yeah.
Okay. Okay. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Siddhant Chhabra with Minerva Asset Advisors. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello. Good afternoon, everyone. I just had a couple of questions on the paper and pulp segment. Firstly, if possible, can you give me a split of wood procurement between subabul, casuarina, and eucalyptus, the three types of wood?
Siddhant, I don't have that backup at the moment. So we can offline. I can drop an email. I'll send it to you.
Okay. When I drop the email offline, could you also tell me how it's changed over the last year? That's also possible.
Okay. I'll try to send you this trend or whatever. I mean, you want to know eucalyptus and poplar, right, the breakup?
No. So Subabul, Casuarina, and eucalyptus, what your split is of wood procurement between these three?
Okay. Fine.
Okay. So my second question now is regarding wood prices. If you can give me an idea that how do you see domestic and imported wood prices moving over the current year, calendar year 2025, over the rest of the year?
I think the cost pressures will continue. The wood prices have gone up close to around 6.5% from last year. And imported pulp has gone up close to almost 70-odd% up. So that pressure will continue, particularly imported pulp because of the dollar rupee depreciation also would impact the pricing of that. So that is one thing. And there is the demand-supply part. Probably it will also continue because there are new capacities that have come up in the market and all that. So those cost pressures will certainly continue in the near future.
So are you saying that?
There is a possibility that slowly, as the demand picks up, we can pass on some of it in the pricing.
So are you saying that the domestic wood prices, you expect them to stay stable or increase or?
Mostly, we expect them to be at least sustained, but we don't expect it to considerably go down.
Okay. So domestic wood prices, you don't expect a decline over the rest of this year, say by December, end of the year. Okay. Right. And on imported wood, you told me imported pulp. What about imported wood on that? Can you provide?
We want more wood.
Then my last question would be on Shandong Chenming, the Chinese paper company. They had a significant part of their capacity shut down in this last December quarter. So first thing would be, have you heard any update on that, if it's come back or to any extent? And secondly, because of that, have you seen that the competitive intensity in paperboard has come down due to their capacities being shut off in the last quarter because they are quite a large player in the paperboard segment?
So I absolutely don't have any update on that part. But you have to understand that we were facing pressures both from imports as well as from new capacities coming up in the market. So imports probably are slowing down. That is what we are seeing. But the pressure is still up because of the new capacities in the domestic market.
Okay. So you're saying that in paperboard, import pressure has been slowing down?
Yes.
Okay. And do you expect that to remain the trend going forward, or do you expect the competitiveness to increase again?
So, well, I think it would probably always be there. And now, with particularly rupee depreciating, also would probably slow it down a bit, in my opinion. So the pressure may be there, but it won't be as intense as it was in this financial year.
Okay. So again, the decline has happened, and you expect it to be slow, the pressure from imported paperboard to be slow as well, not a pickup again?
Yeah.
Right. So okay. I'll reach out to you regarding the split between the three types of wood procurement. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, please restrict yourselves to two questions. Next question comes from the line of Harsh Bhatia with Emkay Global. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Good afternoon, and thanks for the opportunity. K. T., with regards to your remarks that in fourth quarter, we'll be launching INR 8,000 crore of new inventory. But to meet our original guidance of INR 7,000-INR 8,000 crore of pre-sales for the year, I think the ask rate is close to around INR 5,000-INR 5,500 crore. So how confident are we that we'll be able to achieve this high sales from whatever we're launching in the last quarter?
Hi, Harsh. So apart from the launches, there are also subsequent sales. So with a combination of both, we are pretty reasonably confident that we will be able to achieve this promised target.
Sure. So that INR 7,000-8,000 crores remains intact, the guidance remains intact.
It's the help of new launches and sustenance support.
Sure, but in the sustainable launch, I was looking at the Q3 performance. So I think the third quarter was mainly driven by Niyaara sales. I think 55% came from Birla Niyaara, phase one, phase two combined. But now, again, Walkeshwar, we have not seen any sales during the quarter. So first is, how is the traction in the luxury and premium segment? And the sustainable inventory is also low. So my question was more around that.
Yeah. So I'm not expecting huge listing because we don't have much of sustenance except whatever is leftover inventory from Silas and Walkeshwar, which is Birla Anayu. But I can be confident saying that we are getting a lot of traction in both these projects. A lot of interest is being shown. People are coming and going. But as we know, in these luxury sales, once the launch is done, it takes its own time for deals to be concluded. And usually, most times, you have noticed that Q4 is a high action period for these very high-end values, high-end value units. Luxury sales, about 10 crores, usually seen pretty strong traction in that final quarter.
Right. But are we seeing good footfall still at our projects, at the luxury sites?
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Pretty strong.
Sure. Sure. My next question was regarding this Boisar land parcel. What kind of development are we eyeing there, and when do we expect the launch of this particular project?
Yeah. So it should be a pretty quick launch. It's a plotted development that we are planning there. So we are, and it's very well located, very close to the bullet train station, which is coming up from Ahmedabad, Mumbai. The location is very strategic. We got a very good deal. So it's largely a plotted development. So I expect this to be launched in the next financial year.
Okay, so in the first half, we can expect this launch?
Yeah. I don't like to guide so sharply, but I can, at this point of time, confidently say that it should be in the next financial year.
Sure. And what would be the GDV of this particular project?
Roughly about INR 500 crores being a plotted development.
For the entire project. And this is completely your share, right? Yeah. I think it's an outright purchase, so.
Right.
Sure. And regarding the BD pipeline, I think in this year, we have already done a very good business development. So how does the pipeline look for the future acquisitions?
Yeah. So we have already done about INR 23,000 crores. So pipeline looks pretty robust. Still very strong deals, both JDA and outright, we are pursuing at this point of time.
Sure. Sure. Great. I think those were my questions. And all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Pritesh Sheth with Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. Just one question, or actually a couple of them. One first is on Sarjapur, since it's a big project. We would get approvals for the whole project, and we would launch one or two phase out of it, or what's the plan there?
Yeah. Considering the market demand and the land structure, etc., we are actually planning for a single-phase launch.
Okay. So all of the project will get launched at one go.
Okay. That's good to hear.
And secondly, on the debt part, INR 4,000 crore, which is close to 1:1 in terms of equity, how are we looking ahead in terms of managing the leverage? Is there some comfortable ratio that we have in mind? And from the trajectory perspective, is this going to go down from here on? And if yes, then how are you planning to bring this leverage down? I know, I mean, we have a good pipeline expecting a good cash flows from it, but it will take probably a couple of years for us to scale up to that cash flows. But in between, how are we going to manage it and keeping the growth also in mind?
Ladies and gentlemen, the management line has been disconnected. Please be on hold while we quickly get them reconnected. Ladies and gentlemen, the management line has been reconnected. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So just repeat my question if you got disconnected.
In the interest of time, we don't need to repeat it. So yes, the comfortable level for us would be somewhere around 1.1 of the equity. And I know we are very close to it. But then the thing you have to understand, we have these launches. So a lot of cash is expected to come. Roughly, even if you take 20% of what we are going to launch, that would be about INR 1,000-odd crore at least that will come. That will help in reducing the net debt to us. The cash may not be available, but it will reduce the net debt. Therefore, we can access additional borrowing against that.
Plus, if you look at the launches that we have already done and the amount of bookings that we've done and you net off the balance expenditure and the balance cash that we have to receive from our launch project, we are much more comfortable. Roughly around INR 5,000 crores of cash is in the bank right now to be received in the next two, three years based on that. Is it clear, or do you want some more clarification? Hello? We got disconnected again. Hello?
No, no.
Hello.
Yeah. Yeah. I'm there. I'm there. I was on mute. Sorry. So I got that answer. Just one more follow-up there. In terms of land investments, do we have some target in terms of how much we are going to invest to acquire projects considering we have already built a reasonable pipeline? So what's the target there for next year?
As you said, we have exceeded our this year's target by more than 25%. But as I mentioned in the past, also, we keep looking for good value-adding projects at good locations, which will further enhance our brand and be able to do justice to the business. Whenever we get such opportunities, we are at this point of time chasing quite a few with no particular timelines. Whatever we get, if it's a good deal within our parameters, within our broad guidelines, we will be happy to acquire it.
Fair enough. That's it from my side. And all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Saksham with Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Sure. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is related to the presentation. For the MMR region, slide 17, for the MMR region, sellable area increased by 0.5 million sq ft compared to the previous presentation, while the GDV decreased approximately by INR 5,000 crore. Can you please explain the disconnect over here?
Yeah. So we had just kind of kept the one litigation part that we kept it aside.
Right. But if you would observe that your sellable area has increased by 0.5 million sq ft. So it is now 10.6. It was earlier 10.1 in the previous presentation.
MMR. Let's check that and come back to you.
Sure. Sure.
Yeah. Yeah.
Sure. And my next question is related to the Noida update. So we haven't got any update on Noida currently. Any potential timeline or the GDV potential of that project, if you could highlight that as well?
Yeah, so Noida is still a work in progress. As I mentioned last time, there are a few conditions precedent which still are being handled by the land JV partner, the land owner, so unless that is complied with, we are in no position to declare or talk about it.
So no timelines on that as of now?
Yeah. Difficult to guess where you're gonna get there. We'll be able to tell you once we do it.
Sure, and my last question is related to the Worli land, so what about the potential launches for FY26? As you mentioned that you will be launching for Niyaara for phase three. What about the Vadiya family land that we have bought and the Century Bhavan? If you could highlight that as well.
Yeah. It's too early to kind of give guidance at this point of time. We are right now focusing on our launches for current quarter. Once we kind of make progress on this, we'll be maybe in a better position to assess the situation. For sure, we are pretty confident of launching Tower C, the third tower. As far as the rest of the parcel is concerned, we are in the process of market assessment, etc. So difficult to measure against now.
Understood. Okay. That's all from my end. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Siddhant Chhabra with Minerva Asset Advisors. Please go ahead.
I just wanted a reclarification on the paperboard part I asked because in the IP, it says that the Q4 outlook, both volume and pricing, remains subdued in the board segment due to competitive intensity from low-cost imports. But when I had asked the question earlier, we had discussed that pressures from imports are slowing down. So I just wanted a clarification. Am I misunderstanding something?
We are not saying that the pressure is off. I have just mentioned that the intensity might kind of reduce because we've seen some particularly good - I won't say good - on the rupee-dollar side. So that makes imports a bit competitive. That's all I'm trying to say.
Okay. That's all yours. Okay. And you had mentioned about domestic capacity also coming on within board. So could you?
It's come up in board. It's come in tissue also.
Okay. Is it possible to disclose some names of the players where it's come up?
I think in our presentation on the tissue, we have already discussed. And in terms of board, they are all big players like ITC, JK, etc.
Okay. Right. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Chetan Shivram with Accenture. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good afternoon, sir. I had a question that what kind of revenue split do you think between pulp and paper and real estate segment going forward? I understand that you are cautious about the performance of the upcoming launches in Q4, but still, I would like to know what kind of split do you think going forward? Because we are seeing a consistent decline in pulp paper segment because of economic headwinds also, but we have also seen an aggressive increase in the real estate segment in terms of revenue. So how do you expect the split? Yeah. That's my first question.
Yes. I mean, our focus, I mean, in terms of revenue growth, is going to be in the real estate sector because we are not adding any, we have no plans to add any capacities in our pulp and paper business. Gradually, you will see the turnover amount increasing in favor of the real estate business. The pulp and paper business may just marginally improve its turnover, which would depend slightly on the volumes that we have planned in terms of better capacity utilization and in case the NSR of the products improve.
Noted, sir. My second question is, you would have expected some kind of EBITDA margin for the new launches or for the real estate segment for just quarter four. So I understand that there is a lot of uncertainty about how the projects will perform, but still, can you give guidance about what do you expect a rough EBITDA margin for the Q4?
Largely, it's between 25%-35% of margins.
All right. That's it from my side. Thank you so much.
I also wanted to give a clarification because a question raised by Saksham from Ambit Capital that how is the MMR GDV increase from 10.1 million to 10.5 million. It's largely there has been a reduction in the overall Worli portfolio because of this Worli West land where the litigation results have come. But there has been an increase because of Boisar land acquisition, which is in the tune of about 1.4 million sq ft. So netted off, it comes from 10.1 to 10.5 million sq ft. Just wanted to give that clarification. Thank you.
Mr. Shivram, are you done with the questions?
Yes. I'm done with the questions.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Amit Srivastava with BNK Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi sir. Thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is in terms of this, sir, what is the plan for the construction cost in Birla Estates this year, FY25, and next year, FY26? And what is the collection we are looking at in this overall business?
So hi, Amit. So collections, of course, we have collected INR 1,600-plus crores last quarter, which is already higher than what we collected the whole of last year. And through all these launches and further handovers, etc., we are reasonably confident of adding another INR 1,000-1,200 crores in that range. And we are having a good net cash flow from these operating projects for almost plus 500 crores. So construction is not a challenge. We are already running at a positive cash flow from our operating projects at INR 500-plus crores.
So any ballpark number, sir, on a construction cost?
Construction cost moves from project to project depending on.
Overall total for the FY25, sir?
Yeah. We can come back to you on that number.
Sure, sir.
Yeah. Around INR 1,800 crores is our construction spend going to be this year, roughly.
Okay. And in terms of sort of project pipeline, we have given five or six projects which are going to be launched. If you can give us a breakup in terms of the GDV because the Thane project is last, but what is the kind of value we are launching in first phase in terms of Sangamwadi? What is the value we are going to launch?
Sangamwadi, we are launching the range of about INR 400 crores.
How much, sir?
INR 400 crores Sangamwadi, phase one.
Okay.
Trimaya, we are launching the new phase of about 800 crores. Sarjapur, we are aiming for a launch of almost 3,000 crores. Birla Navya, about 1,000 crores. Barmalt in Gurgaon, about 3,000 crores.
Okay, and in terms of the Birla Niyaara, have we seen any kind of price increase over the last one quarter, sir, particularly in Silas?
Sorry, what is that, Amit?
So in the second phase, in Birla Niyaara, have we seen a price increase?
Price increase? No.
Yeah.
We haven't done anything. No, no.
Okay. And in terms of, sir, the balance sheet, you have already clarified, but just wanted to understand that this cash flow which we are looking at, the collection will be seen in terms of the project, but that cannot be utilized for getting a newer project on a BDS. So looking at the current balance sheet, it looks like that next year, getting a new pipeline adding is becoming a challenge from the balance sheet perspective.
No, Amit, what I meant was this money which comes into our RERA account. Okay?
Right. Right.
But that account, that balance that I have ends up reducing my net debt.
Okay.
So I have, therefore, more leverage to borrow against that.
Okay.
You understand what I'm saying?
Yeah. Yeah, so basically, a standalone business will keep on raising the fund.
Exactly. Yes.
Any thought process on a paper business, sir, because we are working since last three, four years to improve on our operational efficiency, but we are not getting any result, though the market conditions are also not very conducive. What is the long-term plan? Are we planning to continue this business, or do we have a plan to do something to release the fund from there to push?
At the moment, I will not comment on the second part. In terms of this, this year has been not so good for the entire industry, if you know very well. And we certainly faced that situation more. And our CapEx that is happening is continuing to happen. But then if the cash flows are not in because of the business situation, then we can't postpone our CapEx also, and that impacts our this about increasing our capacity and reducing our cost. But we are pretty hopeful that till the time we continue this business, I mean, going forward, it will start producing the required cash flows. And at the moment, of course, the business will continue.
Okay. So last question is that when are we going to develop the Century Bazaar and adding it into our GDV? Any thought process?
So Amit, on Century Bazaar, we have some plans, but with the acquisition of this additional land, we are rethinking on the entire strategy because we have enough.
So what can?
We have a supply in this micro market. We need to strategize and plan this properly. So that's work in progress.
So it will be Resi plus Commercial ? How it will be? Let me see. Any.
Both options are open. We are likely inclined at this point towards Resi, but both options are open. Now we have enough of inventory, so we are exploring. Yeah.
Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you very much, sir, for your information.
You're welcome.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Dixit Doshi with Whitestone Financial Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity again. So Birla, Vanya, Alokya, and Navya are under the delivery phase. So how much revenue recognition would be pending still?
So largely, I think Navya and Alokya is done. It's 100% done, except some customer receipts. People are taking their time to take possession, etc. As far as Vanya is concerned, we have done about half of it, and the rest half of it will be partly for this year. Yeah. Yeah.
Okay, so around INR 400-450 crore of revenue.
Yeah. Roughly, that is the number. Yeah.
It will happen in Q4 only, or some will still?
It will happen in Q4. There will be some spillover to the next year.
Okay. Okay. Thanks.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Raj with Arjav Partners. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Hello.
Hi, Raj.
Hi. Am I audible?
Yeah, you are.
So out of the 14,980 crores of the ongoing project, what will be the timeline for completion?
Timelines will range. It may go all the way up till 2029.
Okay. All right.
We'll keep adding projects as phases will keep extending.
All right, and how much?
We're going to launch new phases this year, so that will run for another four, four and a half years from here.
That's true. And sir, how much would be the EBITDA on this ongoing part?
Ongoing, it will roughly take 30%-35%.
30%-35% EBITDA? All right.
Yeah.
Sir, on the upcoming part, which is around 48,000?
Sorry? 48? Yeah. I think at this point of time, we should assume similar EBITDA. That's what we are doing. But largely, as I always try to guide the analysis that we look for IRRs. We are focused on IRRs. So we'll keep selling inventory and convert inventory into cash and move into new projects. So that is constantly our model, being very capital efficient and also trying to convert inventory into cash and keep turning over cash because in a business which is essentially cyclical, I think it's very important to focus on return on equity, return on capital employed rather than purely on EBITDA. So EBITDA may guide you to keep on sitting on inventory to achieve your targeted margins. So we are more about cash turnover. Is that helpful, Raj? Hello? He might be muted.
We have lost the line of Mr. Raj.
Oh.
Next question comes from the line of Hardik Jain with ISG Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. I think most of my questions are answered. Just two things. Any thoughts on Prabhadevi? I think last time, once it was asked, I think it was answered that it is in the distant future.
Not at the moment, Hardik.
Sorry? Not at the moment.
At the moment, yeah.
Okay. And is there a chance, or are we thinking on redeveloping Century Bhavan that?
That will come before Prabhadevi.
Okay. So how big is that portion, Century Bhavan?
Century Bhavan is situated in a plot of about an acre, roughly, and has a potential of about roughly 4 lakh sq ft. We also have to be careful how to schedule the entire launch phases of Worli. Worli, we have plenty of inventory. Positioning, planning, pricing, all of that is required. Accordingly, we will have that plan is work in progress at this point of time.
Okay. Great. Great. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Isha Shah with Nirzar Enterprise. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir.
Good afternoon.
So my first question is, last year in last con call, we had mentioned that for project Mathura Road, Delhi, there were a few approvals that were pending. So I would like to know what's the status on that, and are we planning to launch that, or what's the status over there? The second question is related to the pulp and paper business. So what would be the NSR and operating cost per ton as compared to our competitors?
Hi, Isha Shah. So on the Indian Hume Pipe, the project in Delhi, there has not been much progress on the approvals. We are expecting after the elections, things will improve. There will be more responsible people taking charge. At this time, the committee is not in place, etc. So there definitely is not going to be launched this year. If at all, it will happen only in the next financial year. We haven't made much progress there as of now. We're waiting for the new establishment to come in post-elections and then take charge. On the pulp and paper business question, I mean, I would not like to comment on the NSR comparison because it's not just one single product. There are different kinds of products, and within those product segment also, there are different varieties of product.
There will be some places where our NSR is better than the competitors, or maybe equal, or maybe lower. What is important is on the cost factor, roughly on an overall aggregate basis. Usually we have a little bit of a cost disadvantage of close to about five to six% with our premier competitors.
Okay, sir. Thank you. Thank you so much, sir.
Yeah.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Siddhant Dand with Goodwill. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. You said you had a 4%-5% cost disadvantage to your competitors. So any reason why?
See, there are a couple of reasons. One is some competitors have certain subsidies available. They have slightly older plants, etc. We have a locational disadvantage also. We can't if you want to go out of north, it becomes a little challenging for us in terms of logistics. There are a few competitors with higher capacity who could afford to put some captive plants for processing mechanical pulp, which for us, it doesn't make sense. So we have to import them. Based on the pricing of the imported pulp, sometimes it becomes our disadvantage. There are a variety of reasons, but broadly, we have estimated that we kind of more or less at any given time would range between 5%-6% of the competitors' cost. Our EBITDA margins are not would be if they are 20% competitors.
I'm just talking about the major competitors. They would be probably about 25%-26%.
Okay. My second question was on the anti-dumping duty. So are we working with the government?
We are constantly.
Regarding the.
Paper body, which is there, is constantly in dialogue with the ministry, etc., to ensure that. But the case is not very strong as we feel, I mean, from what we understand.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Akshay Ajmera with Nirzar Securities. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah, Akshay.
Yes, sir. Thank you so much, sir, for the opportunity. Just a quick question on the Worli Mill land litigation. You mentioned that how much GDV is revised downward because of adverse Supreme Court ruling?
5,000 crores. Roughly INR 5,000 crores.
5,000 crores. And in area, it would be how much, sir?
6,000. 6.5 acres.
You're a sellable area. I'm asking.
Developed by a foot. Yeah. 12 feet area. Developed area. 12 sq ft area.
How many? 6.83 lakhs.
Yeah. About 6.8 lakhs.
6.8?
Of FSI potential.
Okay. Okay.
But we must also remember that along with this, there's also a lot of rehabilitation liabilities also. So the margins of this will be much lower than the usual margins.
Okay. And.
We expect that four-to-five years down the line. So the NAV will not be significant here. The NPV of these.
So there are no thoughts of procuring this land from BMC going forward?
We are exploring all options. Too early to come to a conclusion.
Right. Right. Got it. Thank you so much for your answer.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Prashant Gaikwad, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good afternoon, sir. I would just like to ask you one question with respect to the Century Bhavan, so what would be the revenue potential for that plant?
Which one? Century Bhavan?
Century Bhavan.
Bhavan, roughly about INR 4,000 crores.
4,000 crores. Okay. Got it. Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Himanshu Jhaveri, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. What launches are we expecting in this quarter? And do we expect around 3-4,000 crores of pre-sales this quarter to meet our guidance portfolio?
Hi, Himanshu. I've already explained the entire launch calendar month-wise, project-wise, area-wise, value-wise. And right at the beginning. And also, we are reasonably confident of achieving our guidance.
Okay, and can you share are we seeing some slowdown in prices as in the end, the real estate is connected to the stock market, and there the prices are down like 30%-40%? So just to know for the knowledge.
Himanshu, what we are seeing that we are coming up for launches also is that the inventory overhang continues to be very low, far lower than what it used to be in the past when the markets were not so great. Demand has been strong. Overall, if you look at year to year, there has been a higher intake compared to last year. The sales have been much higher than what it has been last year. It's too early to predict that there is going to be a slowdown or any of that. There has been no letdown in pricing. We had a launch in Q2 in Bengaluru. And what we sold for phase one of Trimaya last year, 6,200, got sold at 8,200. 6,800, what we sold last year, got sold out at 8,200 this I mean, last quarter. And again, a full sellout.
So that is what the data tells you.
Okay. So as of now, we are not seeing any kind of slowdown?
No. Not to my knowledge.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Siddhant Chhabra with Minerva Asset Advisors. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. So you mentioned in your investor presentation that the writing and printing segment has witnessed soft demand in Q3. So within that segment, specifically copier paper, if you can give me an idea how the pricing has been over the last two quarters, so sequentially, and how import intensity has been, you said it's increased. And how do you expect import intensity to be going forward within copier paper only?
Right now, I don't have the numbers. So could it?
Ladies and gentlemen, the management line has been disconnected. Please be on hold while we quickly get them reconnected. Ladies and gentlemen, the management line has been reconnected. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello.
Yeah. So I was telling you, I mean, a few questions. So why don't you just. I don't have all the numbers with me right now. So just drop me an email. I'll answer your questions.
Okay. I'll drop all the questions.
Yeah. Yeah.
Right.
Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Raj from Ajav Partners. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Hi, Raj.
Hello. Audible now?
Yes, you are. You are.
Hello. So, sir, on the upcoming launches part, which is around INR 48,000 crores, right?
Upcoming launches of the future, in the long future.
Yeah.
As of now, it's 48 because 14 we have launched. It will happen over the next five to six years.
It will launch over the next five-to-six years already. And how much is our share from this whole amount?
See, most of it is apart from four or five, I think. No. There are only two revenue shares.
Yeah.
The rest is ours. Out of 63, about 47 is ours. Roughly 90% is ours. 57.
Understood. Understood. And how much would be the EBITDA on this upcoming project?
Yeah. So for projects like Worli, which is about 50%, our EBITDA is expected to be margin about 45%. And the others we have acquired and the JDAs, etc., range from about 25%-35%.
All right. All right. How much would be the overall cost in constructing all the INR 63,000 crores of portfolio?
So we take out the margin, and that's what it is, minus land cost.
Land cost is very little, yeah?
Yeah.
So in this.
Yeah?
Go on. Go on.
So if you look at INR 63,000 crores and we say that the EBITDA margin is 35%, rest is all cost, right?
Barabar.
तो वही cost हो गया। आप कैलकुलेट कर लीजिए.
I think it comes to around 10% PAT. Am I right?
10%.
After doing the tax part.
Anyway, so this detailed accounting, this thing we can discuss outside. Our EBITDA margin is, as I told you, in the range of about 25%-35%. Projects like Worli and Lands of Rayon, which is about 45%.
Okay.
That is our guidance. The rest of the calculations, you can figure out or we can talk about it offline.
Offline. All right. I'll just drop it and email to your IR team. You are right?
Yeah. Sure. Most well.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, we have reached the end of question and answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to Aditya Birla Real Estate Limited Management, for closing comments.
Thank you all for participating in this earnings call. If you have any further questions or would like to know more about the company, please reach out to our IR managers at Ajmera Advisors. Thank you so much for all your participation and interest in our company. Thank you so much.
Thank you. On behalf of Aditya Birla Real Estate Limited Management, and Nomura, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.