Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (BOM:500110)
India flag India · Delayed Price · Currency is INR
1,072.05
+74.75 (7.50%)
At close: Apr 28, 2026
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Q4 24/25

Apr 25, 2025

Moderator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Q4 FY 2025 earnings conference call of Chennai Petroleum Corp Limited, hosted by Yes Securities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star and zero on the touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harshraj Aggarwal from Yes Securities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Harshraj Aggarwal
Executive VP of Institutional Equity Research, Yes Securities

Thank you, Rutuja. A very good evening to everyone. I would like to extend a very warm welcome to all the participants and the top management of Chennai Petroleum. So just to highlight to you who all are present, we have with us Sri Rohit Kumar Agrawala, Director of Finance, Sri Anil Sahni, Chief General Manager, Technical Services, Sri A. Dharmaraj, Chief General Manager, Finance, and Sri Srikanth, Chief General Manager, Technical. So I would like to hand over the call to the management for opening remarks and post that we can move on to Q&A session.

Moderator

I'm sorry to interrupt. The management line is disconnected. Please give me a moment.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have the management reconnected. Over to you, sir. Sir, you may please go ahead.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Management side, we'll go ahead. Okay. Good evening, everyone. I'm Rohit Agrawala, Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum. And with me, my senior colleagues are Anil Sahni, Chief General Manager, Technical Services, Mr. Dharmaraj, Chief General Manager, Finance, and Mr. Srikanth, Chief General Manager, Technical. First of all, I must thank you all for joining this call today. On behalf of CPCL, I welcome you all to this post-quarter four financial year 2024-2025 result con call. Before we begin, I would like to mention that some of the statements that we'll be making during this con call are based on our assessment of the matter, and we believe that these statements are reasonable. However, the results would be different depending on the nature of events and uncertainties. Our Q4, quarter four, 2024-2025 results are with you for quite some time now.

I hope all would have gone through, would have done their own analysis, and during this call, I'll be happy to take questions based on the same. To start with a brief summary from my side, during this quarter, our refinery continued its stellar performance, both on physical as well as financial parameters. I'd like to highlight some significant developments as we step into our Diamond Jubilee year, this being our Diamond Jubilee year. CPCL has been upgraded from Schedule B to Schedule A Central Public Sector Enterprise by Government of India during August 2024, which enables us for a lot of freedom in recruitment as well as going forward the board powers into our operations. Now, let me start with the physical performance. CPCL achieved a crude throughput of 10.45 MMT, that is equivalent to 99.5% of our installed capacity.

This must be seen with respect to the turnaround that has happened during the year. If you take that consideration, again, you will find that this performance is quite comparable to the previous year's performance where CPCL clocked 111% capacity utilization. If I keep my focus only on quarter four, the crude throughput was 2.974, which is 113% of installed capacity. Again, that reinforces that performing much beyond our rated capacity is now a norm, and CPCL is capable of that repeating year after year. The next slide I'd like to state, the lowest ever energy intensity index registered during the year further underlines the optimized energy utilization.

I must place it that if you remember our energy indexes and our fuel and loss indexes were quite high two, three years back, and we went to a roadmap where we said on a sustained consecutively, we'll bring it down to very efficient levels. In that context, the fuel and loss has come down to 8.5% to 5.1% for the year as a whole. The MBN is around 72.0. The best EII figure of 87.4 has been clocked in the current year, 2024-2025. With respect to value-added product, in the basket of food-grade hexane, we have now added pharma-grade hexane of equal capacity. That has also reflected in our sales where products like hexane, MTO, lean butane, the sales have increased in this current year.

With respect to RLNG and our commitment to net zero, RLNG consumption during the previous year, that is 2024-2025, was 527 TMT, as against 441 TMT in the previous year. It must also be highlighted here that even the previous year was the ever-best and much above earlier years. We look constantly at this space, and based on our economics, we try to increase the RLNG quotient for overall profitability and environmental sustainability. During the financial year, we have processed almost 64%-65% of high sulfur. Our long-term sourcing remains at around 55%-60%. The spot and the opportunity crudes depend on individual economies, and we try to harness them, increase them to keep the profitability at the best. Pharma-grade hexane we talked about, so that's a new product that we introduced during the year, which gives us inroads into a new market altogether.

We also did a trial run of SAF, Sustainable Aviation Fuel. So we will be one of the few players who will have an early rollout of SAF. Safety is pretty critical in an industry like this. Again, we are happy to share that the zero fire incident is continuously upgraded, and we continue to have it. Now it's almost 1884 fire-free days as of March 31st, 2025. To summarize the physical performance, we are committed to develop new schemes on energy efficiency, further take the fuel and loss reduction roadmap further lower, and then develop and enhance production of value-added products as well going forward. Now I turn to financial performance. The GRM for 2024-2025 for a full-year basis is $4.22, as compared to the previous year, $8.64. But if you compare it to Singapore benchmark, the Singapore benchmark was $3.79 in the current year.

We all know that product tracks have reduced as compared to the previous year in the international market. But our endeavor to better the benchmarks continues. If I turn to quarter four, the GRM was $6.22 per barrel. Again, if I compare the previous year, same quarter, it was $7.7 per barrel. But if I compare to Singapore benchmark, the Singapore benchmark was only 3.1. So the efficiencies would be evident. And when we go further, we'll also explain where these efficiencies are coming. We have been continuously giving a premium GRM return over Singapore GRMs. And if you ask why it is coming, post our shutdown maintenance schedule M&I, our refinery production has come back to much above scheduled capacities. Our fuel consumption is at the lowest possible on an incremental quarter-on-quarter basis. Fuel and losses are at the lowest possible, and then efficiencies are to the max.

When I turn to leverage position, the leverage position, debt equity position, as on March 31st, 2025, is 0.39 compared to 0.32 in the previous year. At an absolute amount, the debt stands at INR 3,100 crore as compared to INR 2,762 crore. Net worth hovers around INR 8,000 crore as on March 31st, 2025. With the above, the board has also recommended a dividend of INR 5 per equity share. That is 50% of face value for the current year. And as we all know, this is subject to approval at AGM, which will happen in the due course. On the CapEx front, in the current year, we have spent INR 673 crore as CapEx for the current year. Our maintenance CapEx remains INR 200 Crore to INR 250 Crore range. In our next year forecast, also, we feel the CapEx will be in that range, and the maintenance CapEx will be at around INR 200 crore to INR 250 crore range.

Depending on value-added projects, the actual will be a little different. On the governance front, I'm happy to share that we have successfully implemented the Information Security Management System, ISMS, and certified for ISO 27001:2022, enhancing our system security robustness. The relevance I'm pointing out here is we are very aware that in the present systems, beyond the normal safety of the plant, the system safety, cybersecurity are of great importance, and the company gives proper attention to that. Another highlighting factor on the governance front I would like to highlight is CPCL started with the IR reporting, reporting annual report in the IR reporting framework in 2022-2023. Immediately, we are among the select few who in 2023-2024, immediately next year, we got it assured. We were the select few who started IR with assurance.

I'm happy to share that now we are part of the S&P Global ESG Score, and CPCL has achieved a score of 46 for the year 2024, which is above the Indian average in this field. The point that I would like to highlight is this is a journey that we have started. Governance, transparency, governance is one of our cornerstones, and we'll keep this momentum forward. Finally, the uncertainty is due to volatility of crude prices do pose a challenge. We are seeing whatever be the direction, but yes, the volatility remains quite high.

With these broader factors that may drive volatility, we remain focused on things we control, that is fuel efficiency, capacity, and we'll operate our refinery efficiently in a safe, reliable, and environmentally responsible manner and continue to focus on key metrics of controlling the operating costs as well as maintaining capital discipline by adhering to optimum return on value-added and growth projects and thereby honoring our commitment to create long-term value for shareholders. To summarize, we continue to deliver resilient operational and financial performance and see the momentum to continue in the new financial year as well. Thank you once again. Now we are open for questions.

Moderator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone phone.

If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Yogesh Patil from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.

Yogesh Patil
VP, Dolat Capital

Thanks for giving me an opportunity. Sir, your GRM premium to Singapore, is there any inventory gains during the quarter which help you to post the better GRM?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah. The inventory gain is not very significant for the quarter. It's only $0.66. And in absolute rupee terms, it is INR 125 crores only. But on an overall basis, but on an overall basis, annual basis, the inventory would be a loss. That is $0.06 per barrel, INR 40 crores in rupees amount.

Yogesh Patil
VP, Dolat Capital

Oh, thanks, sir.

My second question, as you mentioned, sir, your long-term crude sourcing is 50%-55%. Can you provide us some details from which countries you are getting a long-term crude sourcing and any discounts you receive from the same?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

I'll tell you broadly what is happening. We use in our long-term a lot of Basrah Heavy, Basrah Medium kind, and then ADNOC grade crudes. Those are there. And you know these are based on OSP prices. But looking into our configuration, we have optimized on an overall economics angle also. These are the best suitable crudes for us. And that is how we have kept them in our long-term basket. Okay. If I'm not wrong, sir, Basrah is an Iraqi crude, and generally, Iraqi provides a $2-$3 per barrel kind of a discounts to the Indian crude basket or general benchmarks, if I'm not wrong.

Correct me.

It may not be exactly same. Normally, the way I understand, one of the OSP, maybe the ADNOC or something, they take a lead and others follow, but there is no clear distinction of $2-$3, but as I said, more than the pricing discount, the type of crude suits us in our economics based on our configuration. That is how we have kept them in our long-term basket. We prefer them.

Yogesh Patil
VP, Dolat Capital

Okay. Sir, my third question is again the refinery expansion plans at Cauvery. So can you update us on the revised project cost and the completion and the commissioning timeline, and post-completion of these refinery projects, how refinery product slides will change?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Okay. So let me tell you some updates on the project.

Moderator

Ladies and gentlemen, please stay connected. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for patiently holding the line. The management is reconnected.

Over to you, sir.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah. On the CBR update, actually, in the last year, we revised the capital cost as well as the capital structure. The revised capital cost is at INR 36,354 crore with a 25%-75% equity holding between 25% for CPCL and 75% for Indian Oil. Some of the most important updates with respect to the project is now we have full custody of the land. So about 600 acres, which was already with CPCL, and another 600 acres, which was acquired in the process. Both have been, the new one is also in our position. And the pre-project activities of boundaries, all those things are almost at a peak stage. We were awaiting CCEA approval. That process is on. And we expect in a few months, some more updates will come in that respect.

With respect to product slate, this new refinery had a 6% PP, petrochemical index of 6%. Others were broadly in line with normal standard. Only thing, this didn't have any Naphtha or that way. The slate didn't have any Naphtha that way. That was on the product slate side.

Yogesh Patil
VP, Dolat Capital

So sir, 6% petrochemical index includes which petrochemical products? Any broader idea on that term?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

PP. Polypropylene.

Yogesh Patil
VP, Dolat Capital

Oh, okay. And sir, lastly, at the post-completion of this refinery, what kind of a debt levels or debt to equity levels we can expect?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

See, this is separate JV. So the JV will have a separate debt equity and financial. Presently, we are working with a 1:2 debt equity for this JV. Okay.

Yogesh Patil
VP, Dolat Capital

Thanks a lot, sir. This was really helpful.

Moderator

Thank you. Participants who wishes to ask a question may press star and one.

The next question is from the line of Kishan Mundhra from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.

Kishan Mundhra
Analyst, DAM Capital

Hi sir. Thank you for taking my question. Sir, can you highlight if there are any expansion plans in your existing refinery, whether in the form of CDU expansion or petrochemical integration? Thank you.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

So, because this is a very old refinery, a significant capacity expansion may not be on anvil immediately or may not be sustainable. But as people say, multiple refinery exists within a refinery. So there are a lot of schemes which debottlenecks, which improves. In quantity terms, it may not be much. But I would like to highlight one more thing. LOBS, Lube Oil Base Stock , LOBS 2 and 3. This proposal is at a very advanced stage wherein Naphtha and HSD will be upgraded to LOBS 2 and 3. And this seems to be a very profitable project.

We are geared up based on approvals. We can take up this project quickly. That should be profit margin accretive.

Kishan Mundhra
Analyst, DAM Capital

Understood. Just one more question. In that context, can you highlight your CapEx guidance for the next few years? And would that CapEx guidance also include this particular CapEx, this particular project?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Understood. Understood. The normal maintenance CapEx for the next two years would be around INR 250crore-INR 300 crore. Maintenance CapEx plus small regular CapEx normally. With this project, another INR 400 crore-INR 500 crore you can add for each of the year. Without this project, about INR 300 crore per year. With this project, about INR 700crore-INR 800 crore per year.

Kishan Mundhra
Analyst, DAM Capital

Okay, sir. Understood. Thank you, sir. Thank you.

Moderator

Participants may press star and one to ask a question now. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one.

The next question is from the line of Sumit from KPL. Please go ahead.

Hello. Can you hear me?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah.

Moderator

Yeah.

Yeah. So a couple of questions here. One is, when is the next major refinery maintenance scheduled? And what was the expense in the major maintenance that happened in September of last year?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah. In 2025, I think our refinery crude unit one will go into maintenance around August, September. But yes, for more detail, I'll ask Mr. Anil to tell about the current maintenance, current M&I which happened in the current year, which you asked, as well as some details about this maintenance.

Anil Sahni
Chief General Manager of Technical Services, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Sure. Yeah. Good evening. In 2024-2025, we had a maintenance shutdown of one of our crude units. We have three crude units.

So one of our crude units and some important secondary units like Delayed Coker, FCC, etc., went for scheduled maintenance. That has been successfully completed. In the current financial year, one of the other crude units will go for maintenance along with the LOBS block as such.

Okay. Other question is, are there any plans to set up, plan to upgrade low-value products like petcoke to higher-value products?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

So as we said, that's a journey we engage continuously. Last year, we upgraded another capacity in terms of pharma-grade hexane. Now we are looking at SAF again for premium. So similarly, we have a few more products. But LOBS is at an advanced stage, and that is what I mentioned. But yes, as a refinery, we continuously in work for various other value-added products which are in the frame.

Okay. And other question was regarding the dividends.

Is the inventory loss and the maintenance shutdown the only reasons why the dividend has come down so much?

No. Dividend has not come down because of maintenance shutdown or any other factor. Dividend has come down because of the profits. When we compare the last year profits and current year profits, there is a significant change. And the primary reason is international cracks. The cracks which were there at about $13-$15 in HSD and others came down to $10 or sub-$10 level in the current year. And that's not a specific phenomena with respect to CPCL. That's an industry phenomena which has happened.

All right. Thank you.

Yeah.

Moderator

Thank you. Participants who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Yash Nandwani from IIFL. Please go ahead.

Yash Nandwani
Equity Research Associate, IIFL

Thanks for the opportunity, sir.

So I'm not sure if this was shared earlier. So could you please confirm the share of Russian crude in fourth quarter of FY 2025 and how it is trending in first quarter of FY 2026?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

So I'll tell you opportunity.

Hello. Hello.

Yash Nandwani
Equity Research Associate, IIFL

Hello. Yes.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah. The echo is from our side or it is?

Yash Nandwani
Equity Research Associate, IIFL

Hello.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Is it okay now?

Yash Nandwani
Equity Research Associate, IIFL

Yes, sir. It is okay.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Okay. So I'll term it as opportunity crude. And opportunity crude, I think on a full year basis, was around 30%. Not very significantly different from earlier years. But going forward, the opportunity crude basket may not change, but the composition of opportunity crude basket may change. Because now we are getting some good offers in other opportunity basket like U.S., African, and others. So because we have about 55%-60% term, that leaves us another 40%.

Normally, we keep around 30%, plus minus 4%-5% for our opportunity crude evaluation. Depending on whatever crude is most beneficial in economic terms suiting our technical requirement, we optimize that type of crude.

Yash Nandwani
Equity Research Associate, IIFL

Okay. Sir, also, could you provide some color on the discounts on our opportunity crude in fourth quarter?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yes. I'll tell you. On an annual basis, if you ask me, the average would be little less than $2. In the last quarter, it would be less than $1. But intermittently, there were $3-$4 also. Now, if you want what is happening now, again, that $1-$2 seems feasible with a little bit of whatever we have done now in the current year.

Yash Nandwani
Equity Research Associate, IIFL

So current discounts are close to $2?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Not on all. In some of the time. At times, we are getting even $0.5. At times, we are getting $1.

But yes, even two is feasible.

Yash Nandwani
Equity Research Associate, IIFL

Okay. Thank you.

Moderator

Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Nalin Shah from NVS Brokerage. Please go ahead.

Nalin Shah
Director, NVS Brokerage

Good evening, sir. This is Nalin Shah here. First of all, I think the Q4 results were, I think, quite encouraging. But we just failed to understand that how do we actually project the, I mean, once we look at 2023- 2024 performance versus 2024- 2025, it's a vast difference. So we are unable to really understand. And as you mentioned that it is the cracks which decides, I mean, the profitability and this thing of the company.

So if you can just give us some guideline that current year, how do we expect something on the lines of 2023- 2024, or it could be 2024- 2025 kind of a situation?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah. I'll try my best. I'll give you some broad guidelines how to evaluate CPCL and how to project. Right. One point, whatever I said and you also reiterated is very, very true. That what a refinery earns is the difference between crude and product prices internationally because our prices are import parity international prices. So normally, people take HSD as a benchmark because that's almost close to 50% of the product slate. Though HSD, ATF, MS, these are three prominent figures. And if international cracks are higher, the profits will be much, much higher. And if it's lower, the profit will be lower. The second factor, which is very important, is maintenance shutdown.

If there are large M&A shutdown, that much of product availability, processing availability is not available. So that affects it. Plus, every shutdown, M&A shutdown also involves startup and shutdown cost. So the operating cost also remains little elevated. Now, if I compare the previous year and last year for CPCL, in year 2023-2024, we ran into our full capacity. Because the maintenance shutdown happens in a cycle of three to five years for a particular unit, there was no maintenance shutdown of any of the units in 2023- 2024. But in 2024- 2025, as CGM Technical Mr. Anil Sahni explained, we had few primary and few secondary units which went on maintenance shutdown. That affects efficiency. That affects availability of processing and availability of product.

Now, when you look forward 2025- 2026, the impact of shutdown that will happen in the current year is lower than that happened in the previous year. That is one unit shutdown, one primary unit. If you make a single index, it will be lower than what happened last year, so you can expect a crude which is higher than last year on the operational part. On the pricing crack part, we started in April in a muted fashion in line with Q4 for March, something like that. New prices seem to be a little better than April. But on the pricing, the volatility is so high. Every month, it is changing drastically. And every $1 of crack, more or less, impacts the profit because there is a constant operating cost. I think taking a guess on the cracks will not be feasible.

Yes, on the operational side, that is fuel and loss. We intend to improve further throughput. It should be more available. And on energy intensity index and benchmarks, we should improve further.

Nalin Shah
Director, NVS Brokerage

Wonderful, sir. Thank you very much. So it was a wonderful explanation. And one more question I have is that since you are, I mean, going in for a JV company with a huge, I think, new refinery, so is it that you will be able to offer some kind of opportunity by way of a rights issue or otherwise to the shareholders of CPCL?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

At this stage, no decision has been taken. But sir, as you know, when we are finalizing the equity part, there will be multiple options which will be evaluated.

Nalin Shah
Director, NVS Brokerage

Okay. Yeah.

Moderator

So please give me a moment. Haji. Ladies and gentlemen, sorry for the inconvenience. We have the management reconnected.

Over to you, sir.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Sorry. I think today the disconnections are more frequent. But any other arrangement will take more time than continuing with this. Right. That is our, yeah. Haji. I think we were there on the rights issue for CPCL shareholders. Yeah.

Nalin Shah
Director, NVS Brokerage

Whether any participation, we will be able to participate through a rights issue of CPCL or anything.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

At this point of time, we have decided the debt equity at 1:2, but all these are tentative. So pretty close to the point, we'll take all capital structure-related decisions. We have not firmed up anything as of now. But yes, any decision that is in the interest of the shareholders would be taken and communicated.

Nalin Shah
Director, NVS Brokerage

Okay. And sir, what is the final now this thing estimate of the refineries' capacity and the cost structure?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah.

The new refinery is 36,000 approximately capital cost, 9 million ton capacity, million metric ton capacity, and petrochemical intensity of 6%, which is PP, polypropylene.

Nalin Shah
Director, NVS Brokerage

Right. Right. Okay, sir. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Thank you. Participants who wish to ask a question may press star and one. The next question is from the line of Achal Shah from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.

Achal Shah
Associate, Ambit Capital

Hello, sir. Just a question that, as you said, about the 30% sourcing from alternative sources where we are getting discounts, how much of that is Russian and how much is from other parts? If you can give a breakup of that opportunity crude, sir.

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yes. I'll not have an immediate breakup at this point of time. My people can connect. But even whatever I remember out of this, this percentage is not constant among crude types. That has fluctuated widely even during the year.

So, ex-crude, which could have been 30% or 29% at one point, could have gone to 18% at another point and would be replaced by another. So exact numbers I do not have, but certainly the team will revert back.

Achal Shah
Associate, Ambit Capital

And sir, following up, the average discount for this opportunity crude will range in what, $3-$4 per barrel? Is it?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Yeah. That is financial year 2024- 2025. The average was around $1.5-$2. But it has gone to a high of $3-$4 and to a low of less than $1 also.

Achal Shah
Associate, Ambit Capital

Got it. Understood. Okay, sir. That's it. Thanks for your reply.

Moderator

Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, please press star and one. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press star and one now to ask a question.

The next question is from the line of Harshraj Aggarwal from Yes Securities. Please go ahead.

Harshraj Aggarwal
Executive VP of Institutional Equity Research, Yes Securities

Hi, sir. I had a few questions which I got from some of the participants. I'll just go ahead with that. So we are present in the southern market, and we are aware that the market is in a shortfall. If you could cover some part of it, what is the shortfall and how is it going to pan out over the next few years given the demand is growing?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

I'll tell you something which is very clear and crisp and very, very different. Like the southern market, in MS, there is a clear shortfall. So the production is less than the demand. I think it's close to about 20 TMT oils. So that's per month. Per month.

So MS, and that is how, if you see in CPCL strategy, whatever little flexibility we have, we have continuously tried to increase MS. We have continuously tried to increase ATF. So that we can take advantage of the demand scenarios, then we can increase our margins. As far as others are concerned, we have seen the southern market to be mostly aligned to the national growth projections, little bit different. Like MS, they are projecting 6%. Here also, we see around 4%-5%. HSD, they see a 3% growth forecast. Here also, we see about 2.5 odd. So in others, we don't see much of a difference. But yes, in MS, products are moved from other market to here. So that is how we have made constant effort to increase our production of ATF, which is a robust growth, as well as MS, which is in shortfall.

Harshraj Aggarwal
Executive VP of Institutional Equity Research, Yes Securities

Thank you. So I have another question on the RLNG piece. So we are consuming RLNG as a feedstock. Sir, what prices are they viable versus the alternative fuel like FO and Naphtha?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

So I'm happy to share with you, we do not consume RLNG as compulsion. So if you have seen two years before, whatever was RLNG consumption, almost we have doubled in two years. So we have kept dual feed system in most of our operation. Our compulsion is very minimal. It is based on economics period to period basis. Cost of the feed, alternative feed, export realization, and the net cost, delivered cost of RLNG. These determine our RLNG consumption. So if we have increased more, it means we have felt this is beneficial on economics angle. And also, we need to keep in mind that close to our coast is an RLNG terminal.

We are connected directly through pipelines. The southern coast is close to the international sea route. So all those advantages accrue to us when we account for RLNG delivered cost. Okay.

Harshraj Aggarwal
Executive VP of Institutional Equity Research, Yes Securities

One last question I had is I want to understand your view on the refining market now. We have some shutdowns, some capacity additions, some capacities going out. In the Indian scenario, you have seen a lot of capacity that is coming up. You have HPCL Rajasthan refinery, you have expansion at IOCL. So how do you see that market panning out over the next two years, the domestic one and the global in terms of the crack?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Okay. In the domestic market, let me start with the domestic market first. As you yourself said, no capacity is coming immediately. Maybe it will span over two years.

In the next two years or a little after that, those capacities will come up. And there is a PPAC projection. All these capacities are based on the demand, the foregoing demand. So capacities are coming in line with demand, and they will not come immediately. They will come after two years. And with respect to short-term shutdowns and all, the kind of monthly fluctuation that happens in GRM and others are actually based on short-term demand-supply gaps. So short-term demand-supply gaps do take care of short-term surplus or deficit of product that the way people envisage here. Internationally also, though there are some capacities that come in Africa predominantly, but there may be some other capacities that will go off in some of the developed countries. So again, I will say when people put up large capacities, long-term investment, it is based on demand projection, long-term demand projections.

Long-term demand projection for the last some time is closely watched. So I feel that not having a significant impact on immediate or near immediate or mid-term, medium term with respect to margins or GRM. But yes, margins and GRMs are not affected by a single factor. That is affected by multiple factors which change swiftly even within a short gap.

Harshraj Aggarwal
Executive VP of Institutional Equity Research, Yes Securities

Thank you, sir. That was all the questions we had. I think if anything, you want to summarize for the participants?

Rohit Kumar Agrawala
Director of Finance, Chennai Petroleum Corp Ltd

Thank you. I think it was very interactive. The only thing I will tell is that CPCL refinery is perhaps one of the most complex refineries in India. It is the only refinery which has LPG, lube oil base stock, and wax. And because of our uniqueness, we have some easiness where we are able to come up with new products quickly.

Our team is well connected with other research institutes, and we look forward to product development, and operationally, for the last three, four years, we have taken a path of aggressive improvement. Otherwise, you'll not find out where in a short span of two, three years, the fuel and loss will come down by 3%, 2% kind of stuff. But yes, because we have taken an aggressive stint, we have been continuously improving. That is how these parameters are achieved, and the team is motivated. They will continue to make all in their domain to improve the operational excellence further. Thank you. That was from my side.

Moderator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Yes Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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