Uflex Limited (BOM:500148)
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Q3 23/24

Feb 13, 2024

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the UFlex Limited Q3 FY2024 results conference call, hosted by Dolat Capital. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sachin Bobade from Dolat Capital. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Sachin Bobade
Director Equity Research, Dolat Capital Markets

Thank you, Lizann, and good evening, everyone. On behalf of Dolat Capital, I welcome you all to the Q3 FY2024 earnings conference call of UFlex Limited. Hope you all and your family members are staying safe and healthy. On the management side, we have with us Mr. Rajesh Bhatia, our Group President and Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Surajit Pal, Vice President, Investor Relations. Now I hand the floor to the management for their opening remarks, and then we would have question and answer session. Over to you, sir.

Surajit Pal
VP of Investor Relations, Uflex Limited

Thank you, Sachin. This is Surajit. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today for the Q3 FY 2024 earnings conference call of UFlex Limited. We will start with a brief statement from Mr. Rajesh Bhatia, Group President and CFO, following which we will open the forum for the interactive question and answer session. Before we begin this call, I would like to quickly remind everybody that anything that we say during this call that refers to our outlook for the future is a forward-looking statement that must be taken in the context of the risk that we face. With this, I would now request Mr. Rajesh Bhatia, the CFO, to make his opening remarks. Over to you, sir.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Thank you, Surajit. Thanks for the nice introduction, and good afternoon, everyone. Very warm welcome to all of you to the UFlex Q3 fiscal 2024 earnings conference call. I trust all of you had the opportunity to go through the earnings release and the results presentation already shared with you. I would initiate the call by briefly talking to you through the key highlights for the quarter, and then, you know, we can follow it up with any questions that you may have. I'll try to do that to the best of my knowledge and ability. Broadly, I would say that this is a quarter which is in continuation of the last quarter, so reasonable, healthy performance backed by improvement in the sales volume, both in the packaging as well as in the packaging films.

And, you know, we have consolidated EBITDA margins, operating EBITDA margins have been feasible. Things could have been bit better, but, you know, there is a price pressure due to certain oversupply situation in India. But despite that, our overall consolidated sales volume this quarter, we posted a growth of 5.8% YOY, of which 6.5% comes from the films business and 3.6% comes from the packaging business. On a standalone basis, the overall sales volume increased 13.3% on a YOY basis. The standalone packaging films had 25 odd % YOY volume growth after post-commissioning of our Dharwad facility.

And as I said that, you know, the packaging film industry continues to be under the pricing pressure because of the oversupply situation currently, and that has, you know, impacted the margins in that particular business segment as such. But the other business segments, especially in the on the standalone, which is flexible packaging, which is Aseptic Packaging, Holographic Films and other substrates like chemicals and accessories, have all done well. And that is where, despite the pricing and the margin pressure in the packaging film business in India, we have maintained our profitability. And once the margins improve, I think we'll be, we'll be looking at a much healthier profitability with the further increase in the capacity of the aseptic films later in FY 2025.

The consolidated net revenue stood at INR 3,345 crores. There's been a Q-o-Q and a YoY decrease, but you know, that is more related to the raw material pricing. Overall, the EBITDA, you know, operational EBITDA, I would say, or the adjusted EBITDA at about INR 426 crore in the quarter is 12.7% EBITDA margin. There's a slight improvement both on QoQ as well as on a YoY basis. This quarter again, we've been hit by the currency devaluation in Nigeria.

So as we've said, Nigeria had migrated to a market-driven exchange rate in June 2023, and this quarter, again, they had a devaluation and, you know, which had impacted us by about INR 125 crore this quarter. And total impact of the devaluation and the derivative losses is about INR 158 crore in this quarter, which are one of kind. I think Egypt, as we've said that last couple of years, Egypt and Nigeria continue to be the sensitive areas from an exchange perspective.

We've seen that every 3-6 months there are devaluation carried out by the central bank, and as a result, when we reinstate our balance sheet in with the with the revised exchange rates, I think we are looking at those losses hit coming and hitting us. And this quarter, the impact of these losses is about INR 158-odd crores. Overall, from an operational perspective, it's been a reasonably good quarter. And even liquid packaging, we had a volume growth of about 8.5% YOY, and the revenue growth of about 12.7% as well. Notably, even Nigeria, the production volume is up 60% on a YOY basis.

Mexico, again, you know, this is one of the America was one of the region which was again impacted by the fiscal and the low demand emanating therefrom. This quarter we've done much better, and the Mexico production is up about almost double of what we had in the same period of last year. And similarly, even in some of the other locations also, like Dubai, India, we've seen a volume growth. There has been a degrowth in Europe as it continues to be an area which is impacted by because of the consumer sentiment and given the Russia-Ukraine war impact on the energy, as well as the higher interest costs leading to the consumer demand getting impacted in Europe.

So we've seen on a YOY basis, a degrowth in our packaging films volume in that territory. But as I said, that you know more than that, we made up for that in Nigeria, in Mexico, in India, Dubai and other territories are quite stable. Having said that, November end we had an incident of Red Sea and with that, there is again uncertainty hovering around you know the demand, the supply chain disruptions are now quite evident. The freight prices have increased, the mandatory insurance has come into play.

So there is an increased cost as well as the increased time taken for exports into from to Europe, and which has again brought to forefront you know the need for more reliable local sourcing, which helps UFlex. On a separate note, the exports this quarter from India, from a standalone balance sheet, are also up about 13% to about close to about INR 400 crore. And overall I would say a decent quarter. Margins have been maintained, the volumes have grown, and we're cautiously optimistic of you know a sharper recovery in the next few quarters.

We know for sure that, you know, the other businesses, such as, aseptic packaging, once we complete that, debottlenecking to take the capacity to 12 billion packs, will definitely contribute towards our additional, growth. But also we are looking at completing our backward integration facility in the PET chips in Panipat in this quarter, as well as in Egypt, in the Q2 of next year, between Q2 and Q3 of next year.

So, you know, given that, it will add more reliability to raw material availability, there'll be a pricing benefit as well, which will ultimately culminate into better margins for the packaging films business overall. I think that will, from India, we, we've already started the trial runs for our PET chips plant, which makes the PET chips for the BOPET films. This plant also has the facility to make the PET chips for the bottle grade, for which the activities are still being completed. Hopefully within by the end of this fiscal, we'll be up and running, and the entire facility will be up and running.

So, that is in a nutshell, the summary of the operations for the quarter. The net debt for this quarter stands at about INR 5,200 crores. And, this quarter there has been an impact of INR 60 crores because of the exchange devaluation on the debt numbers with the last quarter. And the rest of the debt is added for the PET chips plant in India, Egypt, as well as our debottlenecking of the aseptic packaging facility at Sanand. Thank you. Thank you, gentlemen. And that's all from my side in terms of the performance and the highlights for the quarter.

And with this, I, you know, open the forum for any questions that you may have, and we will try to address your inquiries, your questions, as much as possible. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone wishing to ask a question, may please press star and one on your touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Chirag Singhal from First Water Fund. Please go ahead.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Yeah. Hi, sir. I'm audible?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Yes.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Yeah. So my first question is on Nigeria. You mentioned that the volumes have grown 50% on a YOY basis. What was the utilization in Q3?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

About 70%.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. And so how much time do you feel it will take to ramp up to full capacity going forward? And you know, I think last time you mentioned that the import duties have been raised to close to 30%, vis-a-vis what it used to be earlier. And so so broadly, shouldn't that have a positive impact on the volumes? So, like, within how many quarters you feel we should be able to reach 100% at Nigeria?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think we look at for the time being at about 75%-80%. And, you know, because there's an opportunity, because the American markets have come in a very strong way, and we will require ... So our combined capacity in Mexico as well as in U.S. is may not be sufficient. So there are opportunities to export from Nigeria. So depends on that. If that happens, I think the volumes will increase. But given the size of the market in Nigeria as well as in the ECOWAS region, I think the current level of utilization is what we have in mind. We'll see as to how, you know, America pans out in this quarter and the next quarter.

As I said that, you know, Mexico has seen 100% growth in the volumes in this quarter on a YOY basis. And, hopefully, if there are opportunities to sell more in America, so then there is opportunity to, you know, sell more from Nigeria, into that market.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. So 75%-80% is the current utilization, or this is something that you are seeing in the near future?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

No, 70% is around what we are looking at on a conservative basis, but 80%-85% is what we are looking at, if there are opportunities in America to export from Nigeria.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. So currently, what is the total demand of BOPET in Nigeria? And out of a 70% production, how much of it is sold in Nigeria, how much is sold in ECOWAS, and how much is exported to other countries in ECOWAS?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

... So I think we would, we'll be not comfortable to share you know so much insight into the business. And overall levels is what we can indicate, but within Nigeria or ECOWAS or other adjoining countries and all that, I think you know we would not like to share that with that.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay, but can you give a broad picture as to what is the, what is it that you're seeing in Nigeria?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think you have to take it that, you know, the current utilization, whatever is there, is entirely catering to that region only. And-

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

I think, Nigeria.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Nigeria, ECOWAS, both areas.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. Okay. Okay, understood. My second question is on the, you know, the payback time for this PCR line in Egypt. So, what is the CapEx that was spent on this, and what is the payback period that you are looking for?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think we spent about $13 million on this, $13 million or $ 15 million, within that range. We're looking at about a three year payback.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. And I believe we also set up a PCR line in Mexico as well, right? In the past.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

The Mexico we had set up in the past.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Right. Right. So, like, what was the payback over there? Like, what has been the outcome so far?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think the same payback was there, but as we said that, you know, the America markets also went in for a tailspin, and so there currently the utilization levels are low for only the PCR markets, you know. So PCR films is a value addition, but, you know, the other way to look at that also is given that we import all our raw materials, especially the PET resin. So we are now looking, exploring at blending this with our existing to increase the utilization. And also the fact that, you know, Egypt is a currency-sensitive area and, you know, the dollar availability and the exchange rates. So this helps as a local available raw material for which you incur the cost in the Egyptian pound only.

So I think Egypt will be a faster traction. When we had planned Mexico, we had the, you know, the American markets in mind for value-added PCR product. But you know, there, the utilization levels are currently not so good.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. So what are the utilization levels in Mexico for the PCR line?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

35 odd% or so.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. Okay. But in Egypt, you are expecting a faster ramp-up?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Because Egypt, we are not looking at... We are looking at this as, as a substitute to the virgin raw material.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. Okay. Got it. So, my next question is on the expansion. So are we on track with our efforts to debottlenecking and the PET chips expansions in India and in Egypt?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Aseptic expansion in India is. We will complete, I think, between Q2 and Q3 of FY 2025.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. And, the PET chips plant?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

The PET chips plant we will complete in India in March, and in Egypt in Q2 to Q3, FY 2024.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

March twenty-four.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

In India, current quarter-

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Yes.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Egypt, Q2, Q3 of FY 2025.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. Okay. So you mentioned that, in Mexico we have doubled our volumes on a year-over-year basis during the last quarter. So, but in Mexico, we were already running at almost 100%, right, for the last maybe one or two years. So has there been any, like, was the last quarter weak or, plus there was any debottlenecking? I think, what is the utilization in Mexico for Q3?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Mexico utilization in Q3 is 92%.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

92%. So, basically, the last quarter was very weak. I think Q3 FY 2023 was very weak. But overall, we were doing close to 100% in Mexico, right? Was there anything exceptional during the last year, Q3?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

More than a year back, but, you know, because there has been a volume drop in the last fiscal and the first six months of the current year as well.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

... Okay. Okay, and broadly, what's your assessment on the spreads? So, like in the current quarter, and let's say going forward, how are you seeing spreads in India, especially, and you know, the overseas regions where the spreads are weak relatively?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So overseas regions, the spreads are before you in terms of consolidated minus India balance sheet. They vary from the market to market. So very difficult to give you one number, but overall, pattern can be seen from total consolidated minus India business, which gives you a flavor of the margins in the packaging films business in the offshore markets. In India, in the packaging films, currently, everybody is operating at a loss, and that has been the you know the trend for last two quarters, and maybe marginally at an EBITDA positive, but overall there is. I don't think so there is anybody who is making any money at a tax level in the packaging film.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

This is in context to BOPET, BOPP or both? Like you said,

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Both combined, I'm saying. I'm not giving one particular segment. BOPET is slightly more distressed and BOPP is slightly better.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. And how many lines are you expecting globally and-

Operator

Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Singhal, may we request that you return to the question queue? There are participants waiting for their turn.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Sure.

Operator

Thank you. We'll move on to the next question. That is from the line of Nishant Shah from Emkay Global. Please go ahead.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Yeah, thank you for the opportunity. My question is, are there any plans to raise the funds via sale of a factory or QIP, because the EBITDA level is low and the debt is on the increasing mode?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

No, there are currently no plans to raise any equity through QIP or any other means.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

How you are planning to pare down your debt?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So the debt, whatever is the debt, we will be paid through, you know, the cash generation from the normal business operations. So we're generating enough cash to pay our whatever is the annual debt servicing, that there is no issue on that.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Okay. And are there plans to make it to a debt-free company or something? Or it will be on-

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I, you know, as I've been saying, that there are, you know, amortizations, which we keep on paying. And then there are, you know, the new plans for the CapEx, which are made depending on the markets. So, whatever is the amortization annually, the debt will be paid to those levels only. And as is, as and when there are new, investment plans, we'll obviously, you know, sort of inform the market.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Okay. And is it possible to give some kind of a color on the breakup of sales and the profitability on the packaging films, whether if it is India or outside India?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I already said that outside India can be easily derived from a consolidated number. If you reduce the India number, that is, packaging, because overseas it's only the packaging films business only.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Okay.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So, you know, if we have an EBITDA of, let's say, INR 426 crore, out of which INR 171 crore is India, so overseas business is generating an EBITDA of INR 265 crore.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Okay. Got it. Got it. How are we placed versus the rest of the players outside India?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

How, how are we?

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

How are we placed versus the peers, basically?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think, all of them are having the same issue that, you know, given that there is an oversupply situation, and then we had additional situation emanating from the Russia-Ukraine war, which led to a consumer tepid tepid consumer demand in Europe. U.S., you know, as the Fiscal Act was, you know, increasing the interest rates and other, and, you know, taking away the excess liquidity from the market. So the consumer demand got impacted since year and a half, and that, then the capacities also came at around the same time. So that led to lower demand, higher supply, lower raw material prices, and that led to ultimately, you know, the fall in the margin realization and, and the margin.

But as I said that, you know, the America demand is robust in this quarter. The America plant has achieved a capacity utilization of 100%. The Mexico plant has achieved a capacity utilization of 92%. So, America markets are back. Europe still continues to be underperforming. And, from first of January in Europe, as the energy prices have now been cut, so we have to see the impact, how does that impact the consumer sentiment and the purchasing power comes back.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Right. So when you are expecting to get normalized, does it get normalized?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think, I think this question has to be addressed in two accounts. One is, the demand side in Europe. I think let's look at the next two quarters before we, you know, sort of, make more, you know, firm statements. And the other side is, on the margin side is the oversupply situation. Now, the oversupply situation is surely going to take some time to get addressed. And, so overall, it would be, you know, even if the Europe gets corrected in terms of its demand, that will impact the prices, and the margins a bit.

But, you know, like if you see today now, November onwards, now we have this Red Sea crisis, whereby shipments from India, Southeast Asia to Europe are getting impacted in by way of longer voyage-

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Longer voyage time, yeah.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Higher freight costs and all that. So that's bringing in, you know, the local sourcing back. So because the customer wants reliability of the supply chain. So, I think the local plants like ours, with the Red Sea crisis, will do better, as we did better in the COVID times when we've seen the supply chain disruptions. So I think overall, let's wait for the next two quarters before we give more firm guidance as to the state of affairs in European market.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

European.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

America, we've already said that we're already at about 100% capacity utilization at our two plants. And that's where we are looking at, you know, expanding that market in the current and the next quarter, and see possibilities of exports from Nigeria, where we have the capacity to serve those markets, additional volumes in those in America.

Nishant Shah
Equity Advisor, Emkay Global

Right. Right. Good. That's on my side. Thank you for the elaborate answer.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is on the line of Kaushik Poddar from KB Capital Markets Private Limited. Please go ahead.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Two things. One is the margin, and the second is the debt. Do you think the margin will remain around, say, you have called out for two quarters being required to see how things will work out, but still we can maintain that 12% margin? And secondly, on the debt front, do you think the debt peaking out in the second quarter of next year?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So I think the margins, clearly we've seen first quarter, second quarter and third quarter are getting marginally better. Current quarter, I think we love to see improvement over the current quarter's margins also, given that, you know, but it's still too early and Red Sea impact is to be assessed. But if there is a positive impact on our business because of the Red Sea crisis, we'll definitely see a better margin. The debt levels, yes, you are right that we'll see FY 2025, may the debt will peak out because some of the projects are getting commissioned in Q3. So the debt will peak out in FY 2025.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

The debt level peaking out will be around INR 5,500 crore, or it can be more?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

It is right now at about INR 5,250 crore debt.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

That's net debt, right?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

That is the net debt.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Right. Okay.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think we can, we can look at about INR 500 crore more in that.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

So INR 5,700 crore-INR 5,800 crore. Hello?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Yes.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Okay. Okay. Okay. And about the... I think we, you haven't spoken about-

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

There'll be amortization of the debt also. So this is a new debt which will be added. And then there'll be amortization of that existing debt also. So probably, you know, the number would be beyond INR 5,500, but let's see.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Okay. And this Tetra Pak expansion, I mean, Tetra Pak, of course, is a brand name of belong-

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Okay.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

that belongs to your competitor. But that will, that expansion will come on stream in the second, third quarter of this next financial year, or where does it come on stream?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So we are expecting... So the season starts in January.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Right.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

... Okay, so, whether it happens in Q2 or it happens at the end of Q3, it does not make a difference. So, but definitely before the next season, we will hit the market with the-

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Okay. And the capacity will go up from, what, what, quantum to what quantum?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

7 billion packs to about 12 billion packs.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Come again, please.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

From 7 billion packs per annum to 12 billion packs per annum.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Oh, that's a substantial, that is a substantial expansion. Okay. Okay, okay. Thanks. Hello?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Yes.

Operator

Thank you.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Hello. Thank you.

Operator

Yeah. The next question is from the line of Miraj from Arihant Capital. Please go ahead.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Yeah, thank you for the opportunity, sir. Just wanted a couple of clarifications. First thing, so do we, do we, look at contribution margins over here? Because I think that is what is followed in the industry, where we from the revenues, we subtract the cost of goods sold and the power and fuels. If we were to look at those figures, on the contribution margins that we're looking over here, or are we still negative on the contribution margin territory?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

No, contribution margins, we are not negative.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay. So I believe that currently the entire industry is operating at below historical lows. Is that the right understanding?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I cannot say historical lows, but yes,

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

I'm sorry, historical average.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Historical average, say, yes. Yes, we have it.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay. And, on to see the view over here, do we expect the recovery to happen in the next 4-6 months above historical average? Or is it still far away because the-

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Okay. We'll have to really see market by market, and not necessarily true for all the markets. I think India is an oversupply zone, certainly. So this market will remain under pressure. But the global markets are not fully, you know, linked to what India is. So they'll behave on their own, depending on their own demand, supply, and costing dynamics.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Understood. So what would be the contribution margin for India right now?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think we are not sharing details at that particular level for a particular business segment. But overall, if you see, we have the COGS is about 53.3% of the revenue.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay. Okay. And, so in terms of per ton, we don't share the figure?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

No, we don't share the figures.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay. Next thing, sir, on, on the India front, what kind of capacities are we seeing that are coming in in the next, let's say, till FY 2025? Is there substantial capacity coming in, or is it slowed down because already we are in an oversupply zone?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So I think in India, the BOPET capacities are almost all of them have now been completed. On the BOPP side, FY 2025, 2026, there may be fresh capacity additions, but on the PET side, it is more or less done.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Understood. So, the current, I believe the current utilization in this industry only, average industry is close to 65%-70%. Please correct me if I'm wrong at this figure. But do we expect, that, given the industry demand by, let's say, FY 2026 end, the utilizations will be at optimum level in, in the current, current capacity itself?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

The good part is the India market, the demand growth is, you know, at least 10%-12%. So, you know, which is, which is very, very healthy. Now, the overcapacity this time, has been, slightly bunching, has happened, so that is why we are seeing this phenomenon. But overall, you know, it should take a couple of years before, the, demand, supply mismatch should get over.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Understood. And just one last thing, sir, in Egypt, we started our post-consumer recycling facility for the R-PET flakes that is to substitute the virgin raw material. So can you just highlight what is the pricing differential that we'll gain the benefit of?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

I think about 5%. 5%-7%.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

So, five to seven percent is the difference in. So if that will be the same figure that will be reflecting in our margin, right? EBITDA margin, if I were to look at it.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Uh-

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

I'll have an improvement of 5%-7% in my EBITDA margins as well because of this?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

... So, it will not be fully, because we are not going to be fully self-sufficient in our raw material requirements with this plant. This is only, this makes only about 1,200 tons per month.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay. What is the requirements there for us over there?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Our requirements would be much larger, maybe 3x of this.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay. Okay, so any plans to bring this to India, this facility for our India facility?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So India already has this facility in a much smaller way, which was more like a pilot plant here. But India, we are not looking at, you know, sort of expanding this facility. The opportunity, with the vision with which this, these facilities were to be set up was, to sell the recycled using the recycled raw material, the BOPET film. Now the market's going into the tailspin, so that market has also got impacted, and that is where we said that we were, we were actually looking at, you know, selling, using this film to make the, to make the BOPET film from the PCR chips. Now, that market is also likely to become much better as the companies are becoming more conscious about using the recycled content.

On that basis, there is a huge opportunity to make much more higher returns as compared to using the virgin raw material. With that intent only, we had set up this plant in Mexico to cater to the U.S. markets, where there was a requirement for these recycled raw material films. Given that market overall took a tailspin, so Egypt, when we planned, because Egypt there is no. We have to import all the raw material or pay the import parity price for our raw material. With the exchange being the way it is, you know, you buy bottles locally, you process them to make the PET chips.

The raw material is available locally for this product, and that's where you will get the differential margin in this.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Just two clarification over here,

Operator

Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Neeraj, may we request that you return to the question queue? There are participants waiting for their turn.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone wishing to ask a question may please press star and one. The next question is on the line of Harsh from Dimensional Securities. Please go ahead. Mr. Harsh, your line is on talk mode. Please go ahead. Harsh, your line is on the talk mode. Please go ahead.

Harsh Shah
Research Analyst, Dimensional Securities

Hello, am I audible?

Operator

Yes, sir, please proceed.

Harsh Shah
Research Analyst, Dimensional Securities

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, just one question on the spreads and realization. So, if I look at our spreads has come down from around INR 100,000 per ton- INR 90,000 per ton, both in domestic as well as overseas business. I just wanted to get a sense of that by when do we expect our spreads to recover back to the normalized level in absolute terms? I understand that you are talking about oversupply in India as well as overseas markets. I just wanted to get a sense of what is the kind of spread that we are looking to work with, since the raw material prices have come down, do we expect to recover our spreads as well?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So, given the oversupply situation, if the raw material prices are falling, the selling prices are also falling in a, in the same manner. So which means that your spreads are getting, are remaining the same. The raw material price benefit is not being retained by the industry, but it's being passed on to the customer. Having said that, you know, the normal levels would be that your EBITDA margin on an overall basis should be about 14.5%-15% range, which currently is about 12.5% range or so. So this gap of 3%, is what has to get corrected. And it will get corrected with the improvement in the European sentiments.

It will get corrected with the demand supply equilibrium becoming better in India. And, I see... And for us, there is another opportunity to make it better, when we start using our own PET chips raw material in India and in Egypt.

Harsh Shah
Research Analyst, Dimensional Securities

... So, when are PET chips, when are backward integrated plant for PET chips gets commercialized, when do we expect the benefits to trickle down in the margins? I assume the first priority is to ensure the availability, right? Or will it start saving us cost from day one itself?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Well, the cost saving will also be from the— It's not from quarter one, it will happen from quarter two as the costs stabilize. You know, there may be some extra costs when you start the plants, which will, which is a matter of one or two quarters at the best, to, to make it normalize. So not much difference between the starting and the plant and reaping the benefit of the lower cost, of the raw material for your plants.

Harsh Shah
Research Analyst, Dimensional Securities

Okay. Okay, got it. Sure. Thank you. Thank you so much, sir.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Chirag Singhal from First Water Capital. Please go ahead.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Yeah. So what is the CapEx for FY 2025 and current fiscal as well?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Current fiscal, I think what we've been looking at about FY 2025, including the PET chips resin and the normal CapEx, as well as the residual to be done on the... Should be about $100 million.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. So this includes the INR 140 odd crores-INR150 odd crores of maintenance CapEx that you incur every year, right?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

No, that will be, that will be extra. So we're talking about the residual to be done in India, PET chips, PET chips in Egypt, debottlenecking in aseptic packaging, as well as certain other, you know, sort of-

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

How much is the residual CapEx in both the PET chips plant, which will come in FY 2025?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

About INR 150 crore.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

INR 150 crore, this is the total across the two plants, which is the residual CapEx.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Because the main thing is the plant and machinery, which hasn't come. So the main CapEx is, will be there in FY 2025 only.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Yeah, but so my question is, this INR 150 crore that you just said, this is the total across all the two plants, right? Across the two-

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Aseptic expansion, debottlenecking.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay, this is the debottlenecking. What about the PET chips residual CapEx, total for both the plants?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

It's in Mexico. In Egypt is $70 million odd.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Which will come in FY 2025. The residual of the PET chips in India should be about $20-odd million, $20 million-$25 million.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. Okay. Got it. So basically, it's $100 million odd is the joint CapEx, and then you are saying the maintenance CapEx will be over and above this.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Yes.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

What is the CapEx for FY 2024 that you are anticipating?

Operator

Mr. Chirag, may we request that you return to the question please, Chirag?

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Just a continued question, ma'am, if you can let me.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

It's the CapEx for FY 2024.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

4. Yeah, yeah, the current fiscal.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

It's given in the presentation.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Yeah, including the Q4 result, what is your guidance for the full year?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

INR 1,000 crore.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay. All right.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Hmm?

Harsh Shah
Research Analyst, Dimensional Securities

1,004.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

INR 1,004 crore.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, First Water Capital

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. We'll move on to the next question. That is from the line of Miraj from Arihant Capital. Please go ahead.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Thank you for the follow-up opportunity. There are two things that I wanted to understand from the last question only that we spoke of, sir. You mentioned that the requirement for recycled PET chips is much higher in India, and because of that, you had put up a pilot facility. I believe from my understanding about the market right now, there is still demand for the recycled PET chips, and the difference is significant as well. So why are we not doing this in India?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

See, I'll I said that the basic need for the PET chips setting up you know the PCR plant was to sell the PCR-grade PET films and which give you an accretive margin. So it was not intended to replace the virgin raw material with this because you know like you see a couple of years ago when the PET chips prices were very high the raw material prices were much higher than what they are today. The margins for buying the old PET chips and converting that into the PET chips resin was much higher. But today when the raw material virgin raw material prices have also come down drastically the margins have shrunk.

Margins depend on the, you know, region to region, on the with respect to the availability of the PET bottles and the pricing of the PET bottles, because that does not, that also gets impacted by the virgin raw material prices, but up to a very limited extent only because, you know, these are ragpickers picking up the bottles and then through that process, you know, you get the bottles for the processing at your plant. So there, the margins, the opportunity to get a lower pricing is not much. So it depends from time to time. Today, when the raw material prices are down, this delta is not there in certain markets, is there in certain markets.

So I think it's an evolving situation, but as I said, the prime motive was not to replace it with the virgin raw material. The prime motive was to make a value-added film with this and sell that film at a premium to the virgin raw material.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay, okay. Understood.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Over time, which will happen. Unfortunately, the markets went into a tailspin, and markets like Europe and America will be the leaders in terms of, you know, the PCR film demand coming in.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Right. Got it. So, if I were to just understand it in a different manner, it is not economically feasible to put this facility or increase in India. Is that right?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

So today it may not be, but, you know, at some time it may be. As I said that today, the raw material prices are also at the low end. So today-

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Right.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

the virgin raw material may be cheaper than the PCR PET chips.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Understood. Right. Okay. Got that part. Thank you for that answer. Just the second thing, when in the Egypt facility of PCR that we have, just wanted to reclarify this, the price differential between virgin and recycled is 5% or the margin different is 5%?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

The raw material cost differential may be 5%.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Hmm. Okay, okay. So let's say if my, if my virgin is coming at INR 100 per kilo, this would be INR 95 per kilo?

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Yes.

Miraj Shah
Equity Research Analyst, Arihant Capital

Okay. Okay, got that part, yeah. Thank you. I'll get back in the queue if I have more questions. All the best for the future, sir.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone wishing to ask a question may please press star and one. Participants on the conference, if you wish to ask a question, you may please press star and one. As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.

Rajesh Bhatia
Group President and CFO, Uflex Limited

Thank you once again, ladies and gentlemen, for the engaging questions. We will soon have the transcript of this call on our website, www.uflexlimited.com. We look forward to speak to you again in the coming quarter. Thank you, and have a great day. Moderator, you can go ahead and conclude the call.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we thank the management for this call on behalf of Dolat Capital. That concludes this conference call. We thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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