Uflex Limited (BOM:500148)
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Q1 23/24

Aug 17, 2023

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the UFlex Limited Q1 FY2024 earnings conference call, hosted by Dolat Capital. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the Conference Call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sachin Bobade from Dolat Capital. Sachin, over to you, sir.

Sachin Bobade
VP of Research, Consumer

Thank you, Lizann. On behalf of Dolat Capital, I welcome you all to the Q1 FY2024 earnings conference call of UFlex Limited. Hope you all and your family members are staying safe and healthy. From the management side, we have with us, Mr. Rajesh Bhatia, Group President of Finance and Accounts, and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Anantshree Chaturvedi, Vice Chairman, Flex Films International, Mr. Apoorvshree Chaturvedi, Director, New Operations and Sustainability, UFlex Group, and Mr. Surajit Pal, Vice President, Investor Relations. I hand the floor to the management for their opening remarks, and then we would have question and answer session. Over to you, sir.

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Thank you. Thanks, everybody, welcome you all to Q1 FY2024 earnings call of UFlex. I'll start with the positives. The positives for the quarter or, you know, that this quarter we've witnessed highest ever packaging films volumes from our India operations. We've witnessed highest ever aseptic revenue in a quarter. We witnessed the highest ever export revenues in a quarter of about INR 400 crore. Even from the aseptic packaging business, the export, you know, revenues are now touching close to about INR 200 crore per quarter. The best is that, you know, while the packaging films business has been, has been bit sluggish, you know, a couple of months after the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In terms of this quarter, what we can say is that, you know, we've not seen any deterioration in volumes in terms of the packaging films, especially the PET. Overall basis, we've maintained a positive sales volume of on a quarter-to-quarter basis by about 0.5% or so. The other value-added films also, like holographic films also, we've seen a 28% YOY increase in volumes. The Dharwad project, which we commissioned on 31st of March, has helped us to achieve about a 77% capacity utilization from that plant, and which has given us about 22% volume increase in the packaging films business in India.

Overall, for the quarter, when we see the EBITDA margins, though, on a standalone basis, are at about 12-12.3%. This quarter, there has been some normal foreign exchange fluctuation losses also to the extent of about INR 18 crore. If we negate that impact, then the standalone EBITDA margin stands at about 13.5%. The consolidated EBITDA margin stands at 9.3%, which, you know, when we compare with the peers, we appear, you know, that seems much better than the most of them. I've seen the numbers from about 4.5%-9% range.

Overall, you know, which shows that the packaging films business still continue to be sluggish, given that what's happened in Europe, what's happening in America in terms of the suspending fees and the interest rates, inflation, which has impacted the consumption. Still, if you, if you see our facts for the, our America business, we've still achieved a volume, you know, for the capacity utilization of our America plant is 100%. The capacity utilization of our Mexico plant is about 87%. We've seen a dip in the capacity utilization. What we are, what we are, we still keeping those plants at the full capacity, but, you know, we, we're getting impacted, you know, at a margin level.

While in the European plants, the capacity utilization levels have been impacted because of consumption being impacted due to higher energy prices and higher mortgage payments, which the consumer have to, the customers have to do, driven by the increased interest rates across all the mortgages.

You know, again, this quarter, we've been also impacted very hugely by, in the third week of June, we had the Central Bank of Nigeria, when the new government took, took over in Nigeria in the month of March and thereafter, you know, we've seen this one major policy change, where the Central Bank of Nigeria, which was, you know, sort of keeping a peg on the dollar, Naira parity has now, you know, sort of linked it to the market demand and supply situation, which led to about 62% devaluation of the Naira currency vis-a-vis US dollar. We've seen the huge impact of that in this quarter.

It's about INR 382 crore in this quarter, when the currency has moved from about NGN 416 Naira to a U.S. dollar to about NGN 750 Naira to a U.S. dollar. That explains us this exceptional item because our borrowings there are in U.S. dollars, and that has impacted, you know, the profitability at the bottom line, and we have reported a net loss of about INR 416 crore in this quarter.

You know, the aseptic business, though, it has done better, it has done well, but, you know, we, we still miss the momentum, you know, because of an early onset of the monsoon in the country this year, which means that, you know, the, the beverage consumption gets affected when you have, you know, when the summer is shortened. You know, otherwise, we could have, we could have done still better in, in that business. We had told, you know, that we are extending the capacity by debottlenecking the plant about from an existing 7 billion packs to about 12 billion packs, which will be operational in the next fiscal.

We have now quite a good hold on the domestic as well as the international markets in that, team strongly believes that as and when this capacity is available, as it was the last time when the capacity got increased from 3.5 billion packs to 7 billion packs, they are performing, they are producing much more than that. This quarter also, the capacity utilization of the plant was about close to about 120%. Keeping that momentum, I think the team is quite confident that, you know, as and when the revised, enhanced capacity is available, they, they're going to, you know, sort of market all of that in a very short span of time. There are positives. There are positives on the aseptic packaging.

There are positives on the flexible packaging, including the holographic films business, which, as I said, that has seen about a 28% Y-o-Y increase in the, in the volumes and the revenues. Once this business, packaging film business stabilizes, you know, I think we, we, we will see much better level of profitability with the, with the much higher operation, operational level from our aseptic plant as well as our, you know, flexible packaging business. On the CapEx part, the two projects, backward integration, where we will be, be going to, you know, manufacture our own raw material for our PET films. One is in Panipat, which is likely to be operational by the end of this fiscal.

Another one in Egypt, which will also become operational in about 6- 8 months time after we operationalize the Panipat plant. Which would, you know, sort of given the level of the capacities that we have globally and being number two in the industry, I think that will give us enough, you know, sort of cushioning against any shortages, against any unforeseen price increases. I, I can now share with you that, you know, during the COVID period, during the tough times, while availability was an issue in European business, we have almost paid three and a half times of our normal prices, our add-on prices for the pet chips, you know, during this COVID period as compared to what we were, what we were paying earlier.

We did, it did impact our margins during that COVID period. Given that, you know, we now run huge capacity, and the entire competition has already, you know, had already set up these, these plants, you know, PET chips manufacturing, along with their, along with their PET lines. We were the only exception, and we were continuing to buy, buy from the market. But yes, we suffered quite extensively during the COVID period, both from an availability as well as from a pricing perspective. Now that, you know, they'll be getting commission in the current fiscal. I think that and business risk also is now taken care of.

On the BOPP side, you know, the entire industry depends on the outsourced raw material, and so will we continue to do that. But from a PET perspective, I think we'll be, we'll be even far better than the competition because, you know, what we have is one single large facility where we also have the, you know, flexibility of making the bottle-grade PET chips, which again, continue to have a great momentum. We can make the PET chips for, for the, for the packaging films.

We have that flexibility kept while, you know, as I, as I was saying that, you know, this is the minimum economic size of the facility that we are setting up in Panipat as well as in Egypt, is going to be much more, you know, efficient and cost-effective as compared to the competition. We're going to produce in one at one single source, large capacity. You know, while the practice has been that, you know, for each product line, you know, you set up an equivalent PET chips manufacturing capability as and when you, you, you, you set up a line. That in a nutshell, you know, sort of explains.

The debt levels for the current quarter are almost the same as what we had in the previous quarter, so there's been no further debt addition. The net debt at about INR 4,400 crore is almost the same what we, what we had reported in the last quarter. Which means that there have been repayments and there have been fresh debts taken to fund Panipat and Egyptian backward integration projects. I think that is what I had to say about our performance during this quarter. Over to, over to you for any questions that you may have, and we'll be happy, we'll be glad to answer them.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone wishing to ask a question, please PPress Star one on your touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may Press Star two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Chirag Singhal from FirstWater Capital. Please go ahead.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. Just two questions from my end. firstly, I wanted to understand on the FX losses that you booked during the quarter. Apart from the exceptional item that you have shown, are there any other FX losses?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Actually, your voice is cracking. Can you just repeat your question, please?

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Audible now?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

There's some disturbance and so...

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Even now?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yeah, better.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Yeah. I'm saying that, apart from the Forex losses that you have shown in the exceptional item, are there any other Forex losses that you booked during the quarter?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yeah. I said that during the quarter, there are normal currency fluctuations of about INR 18 crore, which are taken at a, at PIPA level itself.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. INR 382 crores exceptional item that you have shown, and another INR 18 crores which might be part of the other expenses. Nothing apart from these two items?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

No, these are the two ones on the Forex side.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. Except Nigeria and Egypt, are there any other regions where there is a weaker currency and we can see some sort of Forex losses going forward?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

I think Egyptian currency continues to weaken every quarter, so the Mexican currency has appreciated in this quarter. All others are, are sort of minor, negative or positive, so that's not so bad. The, other than, other than Nigeria, the second biggest negative is, is Egypt still in this quarter as well. Now, because it is market-driven, it is not pursuant to any policy changes by the government, which has impacted the parity of the exchange rates. Those are being reported as, as a normal expense item and not as an exceptional item.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

On a net basis, would it be possible to, you know, share what is the net hedge that we have in Egypt as well as Nigeria? Because I think we have taken some local currency loan, then we would be having a mix of local procurement as well as, you know, imports. Same on the sales side, we'll have the local sales as well as exports. On a net basis, is it possible to quantify the net hedge position in both the regions?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

No. See, the Egyptian. It's, you know, it does not work that way when you are talking of Forex- impact because of the devaluation. On the balance sheet date, if you have dollar loans, they will all get converted into a much higher Egyptian pound if the local currency has devalued. If you have the receivables, they will also get impacted by the currency devaluation. Then during the period of operating expenses, you, you know, convert from Egyptian currency or the other functional currency of that country into Indian rupees at an average rates for the quarter.

Because, you know, those are the transactions of the sales and purchase, which you do constantly throughout the quarter, so they are not impacted by the exchange rate as on the 30th of June or 31st of March at the end of the quarter or the year. They get constantly evaluated based on the exchange rate, average exchange rate during the quarterly or the yearly period. It's very difficult to, you know, tell you as to on each which day, what is the total impact. The overall picture is that during the quarter, you still have suffered a negative impact in Egypt, and which is offset by a positive impact that you had in some of the other currencies, including Mexico.

On an overall basis, the, you know, the normal currency fluctuations have resulted in about an INR 18 crore loss in this quarter as well. While the Egypt, while the Naira loss, you know, Nigerian currency loss is, is an exceptional item because that's pursuant to a policy of the government of Nigeria.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Understood. Got it. My next question is on the business. You know, firstly, what is the volume target for this year, with the 7 billion pack capacity? Are you expecting, like, 100% utilization, based on the order book integrity and, you know, for other current fiscal?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

The first quarter, we've seen about 120%. Let's see, you know, the, the, you know, the January to March again, will be high quarters, because that's where the season sets in. In between, you know, from August to December, it's normally a lean period for the business in India. As we said, you know, as, as we speak, we have been able to achieve about, in a lean month, about 50%-60%, you know, being contributed by the exports. I think as we go forward, the exports will hold the key to how this business volumes, business volumes are compensated.

Because India, we will definitely see a decline from August till December, and those volumes will have to be substituted from the exports, which, which is looking, you know, achievable at this moment. On overall basis, against the capacity of say 7 million packs, if we are able to do about 8 million packs a year. Earlier, if the season would have gone better in, in the, from, from, you know, especially from April to July, I think we would have, we would have had another, we would have seen about 8.5-8.75 billion packs this year itself.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Post this debottlenecking, you would be able to do 12 billion packs, right? You're able to do 100% at the peak capacity utilization once you are done with the debottlenecking?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yes.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Any specific reason why this is taking long? The timeline that you mentioned is by April 2024. Are we waiting for some balancing equipment or exactly what is the reason behind, you know, this long period for the debottlenecking?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

That's our delivery time taken by the equipment supplier for the delivery.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. What is the CapEx for this debottlenecking?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

I think this CapEx is in two parts. One is this machine, the equipment itself, that's 1, which should be about INR 50-60 crore. Because the capacity is now from 7-12, we'll have to build some more storage for the raw material as well as for the finished products. That will be another INR 40-50 crore.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Total INR 100 crore of CapEx, which will be spending this year for the debottlenecking?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yes.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Right. How much time are you expecting to ramp this to 12 billion packs?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

I think we, we are targeting next fiscal. If we are able to do it from January, that will be a huge bonus, because, you know, that's where the season commences in India. I think. You know, keeping a conservative number, I think we, we, we should look at something in April itself.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

You're saying in FY2025, we should be close to 100% of the capacity utilization?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

our target is. Let's see, because as I said that, you know, when we expanded from seven, from three and a half, so currently we are operating at eight, and from 8- 12, that's what our team is showing huge confidence in terms of achieving that number. We were fortunate that, you know, there was no lag when we expanded the capacity last time. April 2023, when we, when we got this, three and a half to 7 billion packs, you know, we were, you know, April 2022, sorry. We were already, you know, have enough order books to, to, to ensure that, you know, that we achieve the very high capacity utilization in this plant.

Hopefully, you know, we will, we will, surprise the markets by, by saying so again.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. Okay, got it. Now Asepto is going to be, you know, a material contribution to your standalone business. You know, I mean, from an investor perspective, it would be great if you can have Asepto as a separate segment. Are you thinking something on those lines going forward from the reporting point of view?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

because it's all packaging and... are you saying that we merge or you think report separate numbers for Asepto?

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Reporting separate numbers for Asepto.

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

I think we, we give that indication each time on the call and otherwise that, you know, Asepto business, we are looking at margin in high teens. That's the, we, we tell you that, but, you know, beyond that, at this moment, we are not looking at having Asepto. Because, you know, it's not that the numbers are becoming higher, so that's why you should report Asepto as a separate business. Asepto also uses a part of the same raw materials what the flexibles use. It's all part of one, you know, the packaging activity as such. On the call, we do share with you that the margin profile in the Asepto is, is much higher as compared to the flexible packaging. I think we'll maintain that.

As of now, there's no plan to, you know, have a separate, you know, segment reporting for the Asepto business.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

In the past, you have given a margin guidance of close to 20%. Is it still? I should be okay.

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yes.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. Okay. Coming to the next part, you know, on the spreads. For the current quarter, how are you seeing the trend of the spreads? Is it better than the last quarter? If you can answer specifically for BOPET and BOPP. Also, how many lines are you expecting, in each, BOPET and BOPP for the current year as well as next year?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

This year, there are no, we will have a couple of more lines for the PET coming up, you know, by the end of this fiscal, or I don't know, looking at the market today, if they will, if the competition wants to delay that. But there are about two plants which are, which are likely to hit. Thereafter, there is. For the next three years, we don't see anything coming up in the PET business because there's nothing in the pipeline. On the BOPP side, there's nothing in this year, there's nothing in the next year, but a year later, there may be a couple of plants which will, which will come for operation.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

This is only for India. Globally, are you expecting any new lines for this year and next year?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Globally, you know, it's not been a mad game like, you know, the way it has been in India. The capacity build-up has been rational only. Unfortunately, because the demand got impacted, that's why we've seen a much lower, you know, volumes there, especially in Europe. I told you that, even from America plant, we still achieved 100% capacity utilization in this quarter also, and a higher level of capacity utilization even from the Mexican facilities. Europe is what is struggling to push the volumes.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Basically, the next two years, in India, we're expecting only two lines in BOPET and nothing in BOPP, till FY2025. Based on, you know, some channel checks and all, what I found is that there are some new players, for the first time who entered the packaging business, and, you know, they are suffering because of the spreads that are prevailing right now. Have you seen any shutdowns or delays in the, you know, capacities that were supposed to come up lately last year or maybe current year? Has there been any delays or, let's say, permanent shutdown of those lines?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

There's been no permanent shutdown. You know, obviously, people may not be operating their plants at the full efficiencies, looking at the demand and supply situation. You know, the, the delay of any new commissionings is, is clearly evident, and that is inevitable as well. You know, we may see, you know, 6 months kind of a delay from the people who are today in the process of commissioning their facilities. That's what Clearly, if, if one particular facility can produce about, let's say, the new plant can produce about 45,000-48,000 tons a year. Clearly we will see that, you know, those plants not being run, fully.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Got it. Okay. On the Dharwad facility, you mentioned that you're running at 77% utilization. Any timeline, how much it will take to ramp it up to 100% for Dharwad, as well as, you know, the both the CPP lines that you set up, one in Dharwad and one in Dubai?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

77% capacity utilization in the first quarter is quite an achievement. I would say, given the current market situation and given that it's a new market for us, we've been predominantly, predominantly, we've been a north market, North India market player. Here we are, you know, new to that southern market. At 77% capacity utilization levels seems quite different. I think once the six months time, once the demand supply situation improves a bit, because as I said, that India is able to absorb 1.5-2 plants each year, given its, you know, increased consumption each year. You know, we've already seen a struggle of sluggishness of about 6-7 months in this, or maybe close to about one year now in this.

Another 6 months, I think the levels should definitely improve. Even if the volumes do not improve initially, the, the margins will improve, for sure.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. Okay. This trend for the spreads, in the current quarter, how is it looking like, vis-a-vis the last quarter?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

This quarter should be better. You know, we've only seen about, we have only as of now, the management accounts for the month of July only. I think, they'll be better than what we had in the last quarter, both India as well as globally.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. Also in your press release, I think you mentioned about, you know, revisiting the listing of the Overseas business in U.S. Any timelines on the same?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

I think that's all market dependent. You know, if the markets would have supported us, we had a huge momentum on that, and our investment bankers were almost ready to to file the, you know, the prospectus and all that. The markets tumbled. Now it all depends on the markets as to, you know, the IPO markets in the US, how do they, how do they come back? We keeping a close watch. We keep on interacting with our investment bankers, and obviously, that's that's on our agenda because, you know, that will, you know, hugely change the way the company is valued today.

When we were talking to, based on the guidance, what we had from our investment banks, I think it was nowhere close to the current valuations of the UFlex that you see in India. It was much, much, much higher. I, I can't share the numbers, but, definitely, you know, those markets, were pricing us, us in a much different way.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Based on the, let's say, the previous M&A activity and, you know, the, similar peers who are listed in U.S. what is the target EBITDA multiple that you would be seeing, when this business is listed?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

When we were looking at the markets at that point in time, there were players who were. The range was between 8-12. Depending on the market, how the client is market, you would have found, you know, a middle ground for that. Obviously, which means that, you know, given the, what are the levels here versus the, the valuations that you see over there, I think it's, it's a different number. You know, having said that, that was the time when the earnings were also, you know, sort of, very, very, quite high. The earnings have also taken a dip, especially in the international markets.

You know, when the pricing power comes back and the earnings come back with the higher capacities that we've set up internationally in the last three, four years, I think that will be the right time to again look at on going to the markets again.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Do you think minimum FX multiple for the peak-

Operator

Some...

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Sure, sure. I'll get back into you. I'll get back.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ask a question, you may please Press Star and one. The next question is from the line of Kaushik Poddar from KB Capital Markets Pvt Ltd. Please go ahead.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Martin, you just said that for the Indian operation, it is around 13.5%. Because of the problems outside, it has come down to 9% overall, right?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yes.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

In normal times, we used to have something like 17%-19% margin. When do you see us, see the company, getting to that kind of margin level?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

I think we are as keen to get back to those levels as you are. I think just going back to, I think the first target should be first to go back to, on a combined basis, to anywhere between, you know, 12%-13% range first. That should happen. Because as of now, the India and overseas business put together this quarter has been about 9.3%. I think if we, if we first target 12%-13% and then, you know, look at consolidating from there, that will be the right approach. In about a year's time, I think, you know, or in the Q4 of this year on a run rate basis, if we can achieve that, I think that will be good.

Because, because for the, for the overall year, for it to become 12-13, you will need a much higher number in the later quarters to come to an annual level of about 12-13. In Q4, if we can do about 12-13 range, I think that will set the tone for the FY25 then.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Okay. This overcapacity that this industry is witnessing, will how, when will that, that get, get over?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

India is the overcapacity situation, and as I said, that India can take care of about two new plants each year, without disturbing the market. It won't go back to those dizzy heights, what we've seen in 2021. I think there will be more rational pricing this time. The capacity expansion would also be more rational because, you know, we in 2021, 2022, we were at a level where the payback periods for the setting up the new facilities had come down quite considerably, and that led to increased capacity as existing players as well as the new players got in there. You know, I think.

That's what happens that, you know, when the, when the business is high, the momentum is high, you know, people look to replicate the, you know, success of a particular industry. That's very normal because, you know, normally the capital is the last constraint that you have, for, for following up, for, for following a successful investment. But, I think we can, we can easily look at, in about 6 months' time, India should look at a much higher, you know, margins as compared to what they are in Q1.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Okay. As to the world, I mean, your outside India market?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

World, I think, the first, the volumes have to come up. Europe still continues to be, you know, jacked, and U.S. is doing far, far, far better. The pricing power should also, as I said, that by Q4, if we can look at about 12%-13% EBITDA margin range, that's what we are also, we, we also hope for.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

My last question, you just pointed out about the listing of the U.S. in U.S. Is it the U.S. subsidiary or something else for listing in U.S.?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

We were looking to list our Dubai holding company, which actually holds the whole business.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Okay. Whole, other than India business, right? Hello?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yes, other than India business.

Kaushik Poddar
Director, KB Capital Markets

Okay. Okay, okay, okay. That you wanted, wanted to list. Okay. Okay, okay. Thank you. I think my questions have been answered. The next person can take over. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Esha Prasad from VSK Fincat. Please go ahead.

Esha Prasad
Equity Research Analyst, VSK Fincat

Yeah, hello, good evening, sir. My question is that as compared to the previous quarter, we can see that at least that the top line has reduced. Is there a pricing pressure in terms of due to some competition, or is it the impact from outside India business, or is it the India business which has got the top line reduced it as compared to the previous quarter?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

There are 2 things there. One, you know, we've seen our overall sales volume going down by about 7.5% on a year-on-year basis. As compared to June 2022 and June 2023, we've seen about a 7.5% dip in the sales volume. The revenue dip is about 19%, and the difference is best explained as that, you know, the raw material prices have also corrected. It's a combination of 7.5% volume dip, plus some margin dip, and to a very large extent, the raw material price dip, which has led to the revenue being down by 19% on a year-on-year basis.

Esha Prasad
Equity Research Analyst, VSK Fincat

Okay. Sir, another question is that how much impact, how much time will it take for the new capital expenditure, which you are doing on your plants to increase the capacity? Will it be seen in the next 2-3 quarters, or how long do you see it happening?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Which capital? There is no further capital.

Esha Prasad
Equity Research Analyst, VSK Fincat

The Panipat plant, which you are. Or is it, is producing currently?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

The Panipat plants, to the extent we are going to consume that raw material within our own plants, is not going to be a top line acreage. It will be a margin accretive, considering that your cost versus the market outsourcing, that margin you will retain. But to that extent, you are not selling in the markets. It will not be a revenue accretive from you for us, because we're going to consume that material in-house in our plants.

Rajiv Arora
Equity Research Analyst, RS Leasing Consultants

Okay.

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

We expect this plant to get started by end of this fiscal.

Esha Prasad
Equity Research Analyst, VSK Fincat

Okay. sir, what challenges do you perceive in this packaging sector, for the next two to three quarters, which can impact the business?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

We've seen, you know, last couple of years, that this U.S. dollar issue, you know, the consistent increase in interest rates in U.S. Europe, and all that, is actually starving a lot of economies from, you know, with the U.S. dollars. That is actually, you know, sort of, has gotten a sort of huge depreciation of their currencies. We saw Egypt last year. We are now seeing Nigeria this year. Mexican currency last year also devalued good, but it, it got better this quarter. This is the main thing that, you know, what we are seeing, because the US dollar availability in some of the developing economies is... remains to be a concern.

It's, it's becoming a challenge, both from your procurement of the raw material prices, because, you know, if you don't have the U.S. dollar availability, that limits your sourcing of the commodities from the international markets also. That's been our main strength that, you know, given that we are a global player, so we can source our raw materials from any which country from where we, we, think that, you know, it, it is more, cost beneficial to us. I think Egypt and Nigeria both have been huge, hits in terms of the currency depreciation. That's where last year also, we had FY2023 also, we substantial losses, both which affected, you know, up to our EBITDA level and then as an exceptional item, because Egypt devalued its currency twice.

Egypt has almost devalued by about 100% in the last one year or so. Now we've seen Naira, depreciating by about 62%. I hope that, you know, the U.S. dollar, interest rates going up gets settled soon, because that will then, mean increased flow of the U.S. dollars to these economies, which will, you know, sort of, calm their currencies. That's what seems to be a big challenge as of now.

Esha Prasad
Equity Research Analyst, VSK Fincat

Okay. Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajiv Arora from RS Leasing Consultants. Please go ahead.

Rajiv Arora
Equity Research Analyst, RS Leasing Consultants

Yeah. Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. First of all, I'm sorry I joined a bit late. I just wanted to know whether there is any change in update from the last quarter with regards to, I mean, this communication?

Operator

Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Arora, your audio is breaking up.

Rajiv Arora
Equity Research Analyst, RS Leasing Consultants

Has there been any change?

Operator

Sorry to interrupt, Mr. Arora.

Rajiv Arora
Equity Research Analyst, RS Leasing Consultants

Okay.

Operator

We are unable to hear you clearly.

Rajiv Arora
Equity Research Analyst, RS Leasing Consultants

Can you hear me?

Operator

Hello? Mr. Rajiv Arora, we are unable to hear you. Ladies and gentlemen, we seem to have lost the audio from the current participant. We'll move on to the next. That is on the line of Chirag Singhal from FirstWater Capital. Please go ahead.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Yeah, thanks for the follow-up. What is the CapEx for the current year and next year?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

to now, the balance that needs to be spent on the plant in India is about INR 150 odd crore. In Egypt, it should be about close to about $60 million, because that plant was started much, much later. That plant is costing us about $71 million. So I think $60 million there, which will be spread over this fiscal as well as part of the next fiscal. India CapEx would happen within this year. Debottlenecking of aseptic business will also get completed in this year.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. The INR 150 crore and INR 100 crore will be this year, plus some portion of the Egypt expansion. You're talking about the packaging films facility, right, at the Egypt location?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Yeah, packaging films facility. Right.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay. I also wanted to ask you on the CapEx expansion plans, because, you know, you mentioned that you're quite confident that the company should ramp up to 12 billion packs once we start to, once, once you're done with the debottlenecking. You know, where are we planning to start next, and, and what are the timelines for the next phase of growth for the CapEx?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

There's nothing on the anvil right now. I think that call will have to be taken depending on how fast the extended capacity to 12 billion packs is utilized.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Okay, understood. Just to remind, just one more thing. I think the subsidiary financials are not uploaded yet on the website. Could you please upload the FY2023 subsidiary annual reports?

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

Okay. We look at that.

Chirag Singhal
Senior Equity Analyst, FirstWater Capital

Sure. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. A reminder to the participants, anyone wishing to ask a question, please press star and one. Participants, if you wish to ask a question, you may please Press Star and one. A reminder to the participants in the conference, if you wish to ask a question, you may please Press Star and one. As there are no further questions, I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.

Rajesh Bhatia
CFO, Uflex

I think, thanks, everybody, for being on the call, call today. To that extent, you know, we tried our best to give you, you know, to answer all your questions, all your, you know, queries about, about the performance in this quarter and the guidance as to on the CapEx and the business outlook for the current year and the next year. We hope to remain in touch with you and keep on updating you on, on what's happening in the industry. I can only say that, you know, because we are diversified, so, you know, that gives us an leverage over the competition to, to still build momentum in, in the business. The, the packaging films business, which is currently seeing a sluggishness both in India as well as export markets.

India, the volumes are not, not impacted, but, you know, the, the demand supply is clearly impacting the margins in the business and overseas it is impacted by the volume drop. You know, the target is and all the, you know, the sales people, the entire team is now working much harder in terms of regaining their, you know, the, the, their, their volumes in those markets. Once the volumes are regained, I think the pricing power will also, you know, sort of come back. That's what we are hoping for. We are, we were seeing, you know, the whole team is working very hard, including, you know, Mr. Anansheri Chatterjee, Mr. Abur Sheri Chatterjee, who are handling the European, Middle East and the American territories, respectively.

I think we sure that, you know, given our leadership position in the industry, we shall be in a position to, you know, sort of set the things right in the packaging films business within this fiscal. That's what, you know, we are hoping for. We continue to build momentum in our other businesses which have borne which have shown tremendous resilience during, during the period the packaging films businesses was this sluggish. Thank you, gentlemen. Thank you, everybody on the call, and we hope to remain in touch. We sure will be. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, members of the management team. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Dolat Capital, that concludes this Conference Call. We thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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