Good day and welcome to Hindustan Zinc Ltd's investor call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. Participants connected on webcast link may change the quality settings to 1080p to watch the proceedings on best quality. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Raksha Jain, Director, Investor Relations of Hindustan Zinc Ltd. Thank you, and over to you.
Thank you, Operator. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today at short notice to discuss the special announcement on the 2X Growth Project. In this call, we will refer to our investor presentation available on our company's website. Please note that today's entire discussion will be covered by the safe harbor clause mentioned on slide two of the presentation. Today, we have our CEO, Mr. Arun Misra, and CFO, Mr. Sandeep Modi, for discussing the details of the announcement, followed by a Q&A session. Now, I'd like to invite Mr. Arun Misra to present the results. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Raksha, and a very good evening to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today on such short notice as we share an important update on Hindustan Zinc's growth journey, one that will strengthen our standing as the world's largest integrated zinc producer. Turn to slide number three. As you all know, we are the world's largest integrated zinc producer and one of the lowest cost producers globally. We are also among the top five silver-producing companies in the world. As we continue to progress on our net zero journey, we have been recognized for the second consecutive year as the most sustainable company in S&P Global CSA 2024 among metal and mining companies worldwide. Slide number four. We take pride in owning a tier one irrepressible asset base that solidifies our leading presence in the Indian market.
Our Rampura Agucha mine stands as the world's largest underground mine, while our Sindesar Khurd mine ranks among the top five silver-producing mines globally. This strategic advantage not only ensures our long-term growth, but also strengthens our position as an industry leader. Turn to slide number five. Zinc and silver, as vital elements in clean energy storage and sustainable technologies, are driving the global energy transition. Recognizing the crucial role in the green revolution, Hindustan Zinc takes pride in leading the way towards a more sustainable future. On slide number six, thanks to advanced exploration programs and strategic resource-to-reserve conversions focused on sustaining a 10-year reserve mine life, we have, for the first time since transitioning to underground mining, surpassed 13 million tons of metal reserve as the end of March net of production.
Our total reserve and resources stand at 453.2 million tons of ore, with an overall mine life exceeding 25 years. Slide number seven. India is rapidly emerging as the fastest-growing economy and is firmly committed to transitioning towards a green future. This growth is driving a surge in the demand for supporting infrastructure, which in turn is boosting the construction, manufacturing, and related sectors, ultimately driving the steel consumption. Slide number eight. Over the past two decades, the country has experienced an impressive 7% compound annual growth in steel capacity. Looking ahead, the Ministry of Steel projects steel capacity to reach 300 million tons by FY 2030. This expansion in steel capacity and demand will naturally drive a corresponding rise in zinc consumption, fueled by its use across various sectors, including renewable energy, construction, automotive, and manufacturing.
On slide number nine, the growth of the steel industry offers a significant opportunity for Hindustan Zinc to expand its capacity and meet the rising demand. Historically, our production growth has closely aligned with the increase in domestic steel production, enabling us to remain a strong domestic primary zinc market share consistently between 75%-80%. To continue this legacy of playing a vital role in national building and ensuring India's self-reliance in zinc, Hindustan Zinc has, as highlighted in previous quarterly earning calls, embarked on a journey to double our capacity to 2 million tons per annum by 2030. Where our long-term target is to achieve 2 million tons of capacity by 2030, with silver capacity to increase to 1,500 tons per annum, this growth will be supported by all the mines together by increasing the overall ore production to 31 million tons from the existing 19.3 million tons.
On slide number ten, as the first step in this commitment, I am excited to announce that our board has approved plans to expand our integrated refined metal capacity by 250,000 tons per annum, along with corresponding increase in mine and mill capacity with an investment of approximately INR 12,000 crore. This expansion includes establishing a new smelter with 250,000 tons per annum capacity in Debari, along with a leaching and purification plant, a cell house, and an additional 160,000 tons per annum roaster. With these additions, our overall metal capacity will rise to about 1.379 million tons per annum, while mining capacity will increase to 1.5 million tons per annum to align with the smelting capabilities. The plan also involves a new 2.4 million tons per annum concentrator and several de-bottlenecking projects to boost capacity and enhance mining infrastructure.
Leveraging state-of-the-art exploration technologies and a focused resource-to-reserve conversion approach, we will continue to expand our reserves and resources base to support this growth, ensuring a mine life exceeding 25 years even after expansion. As we advance on our 2X growth journey, you can expect more announcements throughout the current financial year. In closing, I want to reaffirm our unwavering commitment to driving sustainable growth and strengthening India's self-reliance. With strategic investment, cutting-edge technology, and a clear vision for the future, Hindustan Zinc is well positioned to lead the industry while contributing meaningfully to the nation's progress and global energy transition. We are excited about the journey ahead and confident in our ability to shape a stronger, more sustainable future for the company, for our shareholders, and for the nation. With this, I now hand over to Sandeep for further updates.
Thank you, Mr. Misra, and a very good evening, everyone. Once again, thanks to join at a very short notice. As Mr. Misra highlighted, this marks a highly anticipated milestone for the market, signaling the beginning of an exciting new chapter for our company, Hindustan Zinc. Through this expansion, we are not only stepping up to meet the country's growing needs in the energy transition, but also enhancing our EBITDA while consistently maintaining our industry-leading margin of around 50%. You may refer to slide 11, which outlines the projected increase in revenue and EBITDA to approximately INR 40,000 crore and INR 21,000 crore respectively, with 250 KTPA and INR 60,000 crore and INR 34,000 crore, with doubling the capacity as planned. Our core focus remains disciplined capital allocation, long-term value creation, and delivering strong returns to our shareholders.
As one of the top 10 wealth creators in the Nifty 200 and among the highest dividend-yield companies in India, we are committed to continue this performance. Looking ahead over the next five years, our free cash flow pre-project Capex should be around INR 50,000 crore, and similarly, amount for the profit after tax cumulatively on a conservative basis. In a steady phase, it will be driven by a planned production growth outline in our FY 2026 guidance and the cost of production around $1,000 per ton. This will be further supported by 70% renewable energy uses by FY 2028, as committed earlier, enhancing domestic coal sourcing, economics of scale, digitalization, automation, and operational efficiencies improvement. The newly approved 250 KTPA project will also begin generating cash accrual from its fourth year post-zero date.
On the investment front, our estimated capital expenditure for doubling the capacity over the next five years should be stretched between INR 32,000-35,000 crore in a phased manner and will be funded through a mix of debt and equity to improve overall equity IRR, given that our project IRR is much higher than our borrowing rate. It also makes us confident to continue to follow the dividend policy of the company subject to the board approval. In conclusion, Hindustan Zinc is entering a transformative phase, one that aligns strong business fundamentals with national priorities and global sustainability goals. With a clear roadmap, disciplined execution, and a solid financial strategy, we are well positioned to unlock long-term value for all stakeholders. With this, I now hand over to Operator for Q&A.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Participants connected on webcast link, please click on the video question tab to ask a live question. You can also submit your text questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We'll take our first question from the line of Vikash Singh from Phillip Capital. Please go ahead. Mr. Vikash Singh?
Hello. Am I audible?
Yes. Please go ahead.
Hello. Yeah. Good afternoon, sir, and thank you for the opportunity. First question regarding this 250 KTPA, what is the zinc versus lead mix, and if you could give us the timelines for the completion of the project as well.
This is fully zinc. This does not have lead, and this is the first part of the whole 2 million ton expansion. When we come to the second or the third part, we will be addressing the expansion in lead also. This is fully zinc, and it will take about 36 months as per the contract goes from placement of order or mobilization till commissioning.
Understood. Is that the reason why our silver capacity is not increasing in proportionate manner?
No, but there is a silver lining in this project also because this project will have its own fumer . So, that fumer will add whatever between 25-30 tons of silver from the silver that comes along with the metal in concentrate.
Just to add, as part of our 2X plan, we are going to have silver from 800 to 1,500. As we have been earlier saying, it will be coming in the phases. It is the first phase which has been announced, and silver will come with the lead production doubling. As of now, with the matching capacity, we have also increased the MIC capacity as well. With that MIC, silver lead production will also be there. You may see in the next quarter as we announce for the lead smelter or zinc smelter until we reach. Our target is to remain in the next three to six months.
We close all our feasibility and announce all the projects to take the 2X so that by next three to five years, by FY 2021, we go with the exit capacity of 2 million tons of the total metal and 1,500 tons of the silver.
Understood. My second question, given that we have this INR 12,000 crore capex and you are saying that in the next few months we will look for a 2 million ton, that means our capex could be ranging from INR 40,000-50,000 crore easily, so INR 10,000-15,000 crore annually. How should we look at funding of this capex and the dividend payment expectation going forward?
As I have been saying, these projects will be basically over the three to five years. From the fourth year, this 250 KTPA project will also start giving the free cash flow and the EBITDA.
If you look at all these things in a steady phase, even last year we generated before the growth CapEx INR 11,000 crore, and if you just multiply at a steady phase with the increase in the volume, because without the growth CapEx, also every year we are improving our production through the small de-bottlenecking and operational efficiency by 3%-4%. The cost has also seen a significant reduction. With all this, we are comfortably projecting that INR 50,000-55,000 crore of the project free cash flow before the CapEx should be we are able to generate in the next five years on a cumulative basis. Coming back to the growth CapEx, of course, as I have covered in my talk track also, we are not averse to it, because given our project IRR are significantly better than our borrowing rate.
To improve the overall equity IRR from the shareholder perspective, we will go for the partly funding through the debt and partly through the internal accrual. I think this leaves the room for the shareholders subject to, of course, from the board approval for the rewarding the shareholder as per the dividend policy.
Understood. Sir, just one small clarification. We have seen that in the past, the smelter cost has not been that high. Given the INR 12,000 crore kind of the Capex, is our mining side been a little bit more expensive? If you could give us some insights into it.
This is the way to look at it. As far as the smelter is concerned, its CapEx cost is $2,500 per ton for the 250,000 capacity.
If we compare this with the global benchmark, which goes around $3,500 per ton, we are significantly lower compared to the global benchmark. If you add the mining capacity, so if you for that mining and smelting put together, you will have to go back to what Hindustan Zinc used to do 10 years or 15 years back when the mining and smelting everything got added. If I take all the inflation and exchange rate, which used to be 45 at that point of time, we are still better than compared to those rates. Because there is no actually really comparable benchmark, because every mine is very different. Every expansion of the outside India, inside India is very different. What I can compare is the smelter. Smelter CapEx is $2,500 per ton, which we are talking globally compared to $3,500 per ton.
Understood.
Roughly INR 5,000 crore around for smelter and INR 7,000 crore towards the mining side. Which mine would be servicing this smelter?
Sorry, INR 6,200 crore is for the smelter. The remaining, INR 5,800 crore, is for the mining. The smelter will come at the Debari plant.
Okay, sir, that's all from my side. I'll come back in the Q&A for the question.
Thank you. Next question is from Amit Dixit from Goldman Sachs. Amit, can you please unmute your microphone and go ahead with your question, please?
Yeah, hi. Good evening, everyone, and thanks for the opportunity. A couple of questions from my side. The first one is, if I look at the mining expansion, it is happening mainly at the RA mines and Kayad. You have left SKM alone and Bamnia Kalan alone. Is it due to that we are targeting zinc at this stage that we are targeting to exploit Rampura Agucha to its full potential of possibly near 8 million tons? After this, it seems that Rampura Agucha would be capped and the remaining expansion for the second phase would come from the other mines. Is it the correct understanding? Has it got the cost implication or what was the thought process behind pushing Rampura Agucha full throttle?
No, so all mines will be expanded, right? First, the attraction always goes to RA because of the high grades. First part is get the easier part done to get the RA expanded along with its mill and put a smelter in Debari so that one line is completed. Now, the question is next line that should come in Dariba automatically, SK mine has to be expanded. We'll have to do lead also balancing because we can't only expand zinc. Next announcement you will find will be addressing zinc, will be addressing lead, will be addressing milling, will be addressing expansion of SK, will be addressing expansion of Zawar. All mines will be expanded. It's just the announcement phasing. First phase of announcement is this.
Second phase of announcement maybe within 30-45 days will be what will be the balancing part of the 2 million ton project.
Okay. The second question is essentially extending Vikas's question a bit here. You mentioned that the total CapEx on the smelter would be $2,500 per ton compared to $3,500. Now, we are going for EPC contracting here, as I see from the presentation, which by far is possibly the most expensive kind of format that we can have. Just wanted to understand the key drivers behind this lower CapEx compared to the global peers, because I'm sure as Hindustan Zinc, you won't be compromising on quality or any such thing.
No, no, no. We are not compromising on quality. EPC may look to be costly, but if you look at the timeliness of completion, the ease of working, and in our experience, the one-stop accountability of project delivery, then overall cost comes to be cheaper. That is number one. Number two, you should also look at the expansion program. Mine is not the same as what we were spending during movement from open pit to underground. We are not creating those wholesale surface infrastructure for starting an underground mine. Almost two-thirds of these expenses would in any case have to be incurred for continuing current mining operations. Only we would have done that maybe after three to four years. We are starting to that expenditure now. In my opinion, we should look at two-thirds of the mining expenses had to happen in any case.
We are just preponing to help this expansion. Otherwise, all the expenses we are making are in new mills, new milling capacity, and new smelting capacity, and a little bit of balancing infrastructure like ventilation, like tailing disposal systems, et cetera in the mines.
Going ahead for the second phase of expansion, that means the mining CapEx would be relatively lower. Is it the correct understanding? Because you are advancing some of the expenditure.
No, there's a new mine set to be opened. That's where the design work we are still figuring out because, say, Zawar mine is a distributed mine amongst eight different mining blocks. We have to create facilities there that may have some expenditure. Whereas SK mine is a fully matured mine, so there may not be any surface infrastructure, but it will be mostly in the underground infrastructure that we have to create. We'll come back with the number when we can. Only I am asking you to take note of the fact that whether it is Zawar mine or SK mine, the money that we spend, we would be spending in any case to continue the production for the next 10 years or 15 years.
It's just preponing that expenses now to help us get the material in today's value rather than getting the same material after 10 years.
Wonderful, sir. All the best and congratulations for the much awaited expansion plan.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Amit Lahoti from EmKay. Amit, can you please turn on your microphone and go ahead with your question, please?
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. If we see the zinc market in the last one year, there was some amount of supply tightness, which has now normalized, and the market is now back in surplus. Second, there is indication that China could cut down on steel capacity at some point, which would actually widen the zinc market surplus. From that market point of view, it seems that our expansion fades into a market that is already oversupplied. My question is, how do you see the market balance from here? Let's say a view for the next one year and then maybe a view for next three years. That would be really helpful.
Surely look at India's growth story. This is why I think we have presented in the initial part of the presentation. It is India's growth story, which is most important to us. Second, Government of India's announcement of 300 million ton target of steel production in India. Also, the announcements made by some of the big industrial steel makers in India regarding the world's largest steel plant coming up in the western part of India and all that. If you look at that, yes, the steel market is bound to grow. Of course, India's per capita consumption of steel is nowhere close to per capita consumption in developed country. There is no doubt that steel product steel requirement in India is bound to grow. Manufacturing is to grow. If that be so, then we have to produce more zinc.
We are very confident of the domestic market. Also, our cost position allows us to ensure that nobody else in the world can compete with us in any geography that we sell. Absolutely, market is not a constraint for us. It's only the production that we need to double, and we feel we can do that very easily.
Okay. When I look at your slides, like you have highlighted 300 million tons of steel capacity in India by 2030, it seems now it is a very ambitious target. Realistically, you must have made some kind of adjustment to those capacities. Accordingly, do you think that adding 2 million tons of capacity, basically going from one to two, will have that much of demand to take it up?
All big businesses have proven time and again that they start with a very big, bold vision, right? Whether it was the first Reliance plant coming up in Jamnagar, that also the same question. I keep hearing these questions in industry circles, whether the manufacturing vision is supported by market. We have always seen that the customer demand, the market grows exponentially higher than the manufacturing capacity that grows. We should remember that our cost position allows us to ensure that we can play into any market at any LME that is there.
Sure. Thank you. Appreciate it.
Just to correct that the 2 million ton is not the overall zinc. The zinc within that is 1.6 million ton.
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from Shivani from Dolat Capital. Shivani, please unmute your microphone and go ahead with your question, please. Shivani, you're still on mute. Can you please unmute your microphone? Since there is no response, we'll move on to our next question. Next question is from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir, and congratulations. Just one clarification. We already were putting up a roaster at Debari. The output from that will feed into this new smelter. Is that correct?
Yeah, not the entire output. That roaster had some extra capacity. After putting up that roaster, that will get into this. Plus, also, we have done the calcine balancing in a way that we will add one more roaster at Debari. With that, this entire current capacity plus this additional 0.25 million ton will be served by the calcine. Whole capacities are balanced as of now.
Sure, sir. Also, you were mentioning that the IRR would be higher than the cost of debt. So, broadly, can you assume that there will be a four to five years payback if I assume current levels of profitability for the 250 KT? So, four to five year payback on this project would be a fair assumption?
Post-construction, you can assume that number.
Yeah, once it's at full capacity.
Yeah, yeah. Post-construction and full ramp-up, you can assume that number.
Sure, sir. Also, then, and how would the power requirements for this be met? Because you were targeting about 70% of RE, renewable energy. So, would we be going in for more RE tie-ups to maintain the share of renewable energy in the mix?
Current RE tie-up remains, and we will surely look for better alternative whenever the further expansion of this capacity comes up. Also, remember, we have got our own 500 MW captive power plant intact with another 530 MW or so renewable power coming in. If we are committed to reducing emissions, we will do more tie-up with renewable power as and when we feel it right. Otherwise, on the power side, we have as of now no concern apart from creating the infrastructure for the power landing there and being able to consume.
Sure, sir. Lastly, will this be a more modern or technologically better smelter? Can a cost come down below $1,000 per ton, excluding royalty once this ramps up?
Of course. Cost can come down. The only thing that from the mining, I would say two parts. Mining cost, like smelting cost, as we have already said in the power plant, we have done the de-risking with the 25 years PDA. Power cost is by and large firmed up. However, when you go deeper into the mines, that cost gets increased whether you have grade variations and the higher infrastructure requirement, chiller operation, ventilation, many things are there. That cost is actually getting offset with the lower power cost and the smelting cost.
Sure, sir. I mean, the other operator ways, et cetera, with the increased volumes, that should at least help the operating leverage part.
At this point in time, let us keep a $1,000 cost. Of course, we will keep continuing to work and to give the positive surprise to market. We have been giving the last year, you have seen the lower end of the cost, and this year you should see the similar trajectory.
Okay. Right, sir. Yeah. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Shweta Dikshit from Systematix Group. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. A couple of questions from my side. Firstly, following up from.
Sorry to interrupt, Shwetha. Can you use your handset mode, please? Your line is not very clear.
Hello. Is it better now?
Yes. Yes. Please go ahead.
Yes. Firstly, following up on a question from the previous participant regarding the risk from China cutting down steel production and how it could globally impact the markets. Even though we are confident of India's volume demand to remain intact, because commodity prices are globally driven, right, what are our thoughts on where the prices could be? When we say INR 50,000 crore of KTX cash flows, what is the zinc and lead price assumption that we are building in arriving at this number?
If I address the demand portion first, I have been in steel for about 20-25 years. I have been hearing China numbers going up and down, 900 million ton to 700 million ton keeps fluctuating. Let's not go too much in there. As far as India is concerned, India's demand for steel is bound to grow because our per capita consumption of steel is far lower than compared to developed countries. Prime Minister's vision for developed economy by 2040, fully developed status of this economy, country's vision for net zero emission, country's vision for continued expenditure in infrastructure, all that will result in more and more steel consumption. That 300 million tons of steel production ambition is there with government of India. Private steel makers are announcing larger and larger capacity of steel plants, newer capacities getting commissioned.
We are very hopeful that we also need to grow to match with the growth in steel demand in India. We are very, very confident that our domestic demand in India will remain intact. Nevertheless, whatever we have to export, as our cost is continually going down, we will continue to remain the lowest cost producer. We have no difficulty in getting a good profit margin even in the export market.
As far as the LME and the zinc and lead LME is concerned, we have taken the latest consensus for the future year. It considers around the zinc LME $2,650 for the year and then for the overall till 2030, and then the CAGR of 2%. Similarly, lead around $2,000 and silver at $24. We have taken very, very conservative assumptions. You saw that we have a good room to deliver better IRR compared to what we have been there.
Sir, sorry, I missed. What is the target that you're building in?
You have asked, I think, about what is the LME you have considered for the project purpose, correct? If I take your question right.
Yes, sir.
Yeah, yeah. It's around $2,650 for the zinc.
I know the target you said. You mentioned.
$2,650 for zinc and $1,950 for the lead and $34 for the silver. There is a naturally, whatever the consensus gives the market, you get the 50 bankers' participation. Whatever the inflation has been adjusted from a nominal pricing point of view, that has been considered for a YoY . The base prices are that 2,650, 1,950, and 34.
Okay, understood. If I missed it earlier, what could be your annual CapEx for the next three years?
I think.
The ballpark number?
Sir, at this point of time, this project has been approved. We have around fertilizer, the major CapEx for which we gave basis that a guidance was around $250 million for the FY 2026. With this CapEx, we should be around this year, $300 million more CapEx, over $550 million kind of a CapEx number for this year. The remaining, I will say for this INR 12,000 crore, the split is around INR 3,000-3,500 crore this year, around INR 5,000 crore in FY 2027 and remaining in FY 2028.
Okay. Understood. The last question came across this EOI for the next expansion for around 500,000 ton of smelted expansion. That is for the Andhra Pradesh region. What are the thoughts on going towards the southern region for the next phase of expansion?
No, that's a separate project, not part of Hindustan Zinc project as of now. We don't have board approval to talk about it. It's a Vedanta initiative. When I do the VDL board meeting and after that investor meet, I will be able to explain it to you.
Okay. Understood. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Jainam Shah from Insect Securities & Finance. Please go ahead.
Thank you, sir. Congratulations for this announcement. My question is about the silver production that we are going to be adding. In the presentation, we have said that we'll be adding only 30 KT of capacity. However, our plan is to reach to 1,500. What would be the timeline going forward for the silver production and capacity?
Silver production mostly will come from further expansion of SKMI as well as putting up the lead facilities. Currently, we are putting up this is only zinc facility. In this facility, whatever silver is there along with the zinc, we will be taking it out through the fuming route. That is about 30 tons. Otherwise, most of it will come in the next phase of announcements where we will find large capacity of zinc smelting as well as lead smelting. Automatically, that will have another 600-700 tons of silver.
Okay, sir. My next question is basically, with this and the recent plan of 250 KTPA and the roaster at Debari that we are basically adding, how much would be the total capacity after all these projects are commissioned?
1,379 KT will be the total metal capacity. That is the total capacity, I think, has been written in the investor tax. We have currently 1,129 KT; with this 250, it will be 1,379. We will keep doing de-bottlenecking because Hindustan Zinc has been known. That is not like if we just put the 250 KT, we are going to 250 KT. Within this, de-bottlenecking can happen, and 1,379 can become 1.4 million also.
Okay. Sir, the last question would be that we are looking at the silver prices reaching a record high, and we have decided that Pyro plant will basically be run only on zinc mode, sorry, zinc plus lead mode. Any plans of changing that with silver prices reaching a record high? Any plans for that?
We will continuously evaluate depending upon the asset health as well as market and as well as availability of grades in the mines. The moment we are ready with the design, I'm sure we'll be able to announce it. You should hear it from us in the post-July board meeting if we implement that or if we decide to implement that.
Okay. Just last one question, just one more question. How much would be our total? I missed that number. How much would be our cash flow generation from this peak capacity that we will be adding total?
Overall, 2 million ton capacity, if you talk, it will be around INR 62,000 crore of the revenue which will be generated at a peak capacity and INR 42,000 crore of the EBITDA.
Okay. And cash flow?
Normally our EBITDA to free, sorry, INR 62,000-65,000 crore revenue, 11 slide if you refer it talks about. The free cash flow has been normally our 60% of the EBITDA. If you talk about that, our ratio should be INR 20,000-22,000 crore rupees, the free cash flow, pre-growth CapEx. Annually, we should be able to generate at a peak capacity, full ramp-up.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much. Thank you so much for answering.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Ashish Kejriwal from Nuvama Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Good afternoon, everyone. Sir, quickly, just to get the numbers right, you said for smelter, we are investing around INR 6,200 crore or INR 5,200 crore, you said? Out of INR 12,000 crore?
6,200 crore, including fuming.
Including fuming. So, fuming, do you mean it should be around INR 900,000 crore?
We can take INR 1,000-1,200 crore kind of number.
Okay. But this INR 1,000 crore fumer , that is giving just an additional 30 tons of silver, or will it help in generating more zinc also in that?
Fumer normally gives zinc, lead, silver, everything. That is not up to that from the revenue point of view. Whatever the revenue point and the headline number is there for the silver because that is the market track. That is what we have given here. Other than this, whatever comes, we have built up in the 250 KT at this point of time.
Okay. So, this 250 crore, which is more or less INR 5,200 crore of average, because now you are talking about $2,500 per ton, which comes to be around INR 5,400 crore. That's the reason I asked.
Okay. That is why I think you are out of your question. You must be thinking why the number is looking 6,200.
Yeah. Okay. Second question is, you talked about that within 35-40 days, we can go for our next phase of announcement also. My question is, we could have clubbed all the things at one go and could have announced, but anyway, 35-45 days, I do not know why we have taken additionally. My question is, how you are going to phase this CapEx, even if we do for the second phase? Because INR 12,000 crore, you have pointed out rightly for three years. But when we are going for INR 32,000-35,000 crore, how are we going to phase out the CapEx?
I think that has been already said in one of the other questions in my opening remarks as well, that this project CapEx will be in phases only because you cannot have this kind of 2X growth without having the proper feasibility in other reports. At the same time, I do not want to spend, waste any one day by delaying this project. That is why we have decided. Secondly, the phasing out will always be there. Even in the three-year project, we have said last 10% payment goes in the fourth year after the PG commissioning anything. First project, 25%-30% happen. It will keep happening in those phases. It will be having around three to five years by putting. As I said, the peak capacity will come by 2031.
That means from the five years kind of thing, 80% project cost should go and the remaining 20% should go in the 2031 kind of numbers.
Okay. So, what could be the peak CapEx in which year?
It will be like every year spread. Maybe in FY 2026, you will not see anything, but maybe FY 2028 and FY 2029 and FY 2030, these will be three years in which you will see the spreading out the CapExs once the 2X completely is being approved.
Okay. Sir, why I'm asking is whether we are very much confident of both phases of expansion at one go or not because earlier we have seen such kind of announcements, but obviously, we have seen lots of delays in that.
No, no. I think maybe Arun sir can add into that. We have to believe into that. You have to get it.
Okay. Okay. That's great. Lastly, sir, if I'm looking at the ROEs of the project, that is around INR 12,000 crore we are spending. Even if we do rough math of $1,500 per ton, ROE comes to be around 15%-16% for this particular project. If I'm looking at the current ROEs of the company, which is upward of 50%-60%. Even if you are saying that now from benchmark, our CapEx is very low, doesn't it seem to be ROE diluted from the current phase, current structure where we are having? Is it mainly because of mines where we have to spend a lot because of which ROEs are relatively lower than what we are generating right now?
I track the projects more from what I have been investing, what have been my project IRR, what has been my payback, and how it having my cost structure helping because of the significant volume increase, my cost should further go down. That is the way we keep on tracking the projects. As I said, the project IRRs are higher. To improve the equity IRR, we will not be well averse to take the part of the debt funding. According to the debt funding, we'll decide the overall whatever you are talking on the return on equity. Wait for some time. It will maybe some three months or so, how do we define our financial strategy overall in the interest of the shareholders so that we improve the overall equity IRR, and then you can comment upon the overall return on equity.
Okay. Okay. Thanks. Thanks. That's helpful. All the best for the future projects.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Operator, just let me take one or two questions from the chat box because there are too many questions there.
Over to you.
Yeah. Thanks. It's Shivani Tanna from Dolat Capital. She has typed two questions in the chat box. First is, along with 250 KTPA expansion, are we also planning to increase the WAP capacity? Second is, how much will the power requirement be, and what are the plans to cater the same?
As of now, we are looking at SHG, but when we put up the melting casting unit, we are surely looking at if we can pack in some amount of value-added product making along with it. That is not a large investment. That is a delta over the current investment or within the same investment, doing little value engineering here and there, we can manage that. We will do that. Absolutely, your question on WAP is valid, but we will look at that. We are not making it a WAP-specific investment. It is first producing SHG, and we will see out of that how much can be converted to WAP. That is number one. Number two is the power requirement, as I have already explained, that we have signed up enough of our renewable power. We also have our own captive powerhouses in hand.
If our renewable power agency is able to generate and is ready to invest more, we will surely look at investing more and more in renewable power and tying up for the expanded capacity as well. Ultimately, our goal for net zero emission remains the same, and we are not moving away from that.
Second is from Naman Ranban from Ventura Securities. He is saying that, "Good afternoon, and thank you for the opportunity. My first question is, given this expansion, how should we think about the trajectory for lead and silver production volumes in the coming years?" Secondly, post-expansion, how should we view your market share in the domestic zinc market, which is currently at 77%?
Current market share will remain as the market grows. We will continue to hold on to 75%-80% of the market share. Our market share should not fall. That is the whole game of expansion in line with the expansion of Indian market. Second is our proportion of lead versus zinc. It will remain same depending upon the MIC that we produce since we are expanding all mines. My preliminary take is we will have similar ratio of zinc is to lead. We will, in the next phase of announcement, come up with the additional capacity of lead plants and all that. We will have almost same ratio of zinc is to lead. That is not changing much.
Sir, another is from Karthikey Kumar Pandey. He is from BNK Securities. When will the phase II expansion come into effect? As in the timeline, will it be post-FY 2031?
No, 250 KTPA will be done in 36 months, and we should be able to expand our mines in between, put up the mills in between. If we can make a further announcement in about one and a half months' time, we are looking at placement of order with a time gap of maybe one, two months or maybe three months at the most between these 250 KTPA and the rest set of orders. In that case, between three years to 3.5 years, almost all capacities come in.
Fine. Sir, there are too many questions, but I guess this time is already over. In the interest of time, we are just putting a full stop here for today's call. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today on this call. If there are any further follow-up questions or any clarifications required, you can reach out to the investor relations team. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
On behalf of Hindustan Zinc Ltd, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.