Tata Power Company Limited (BOM:500400)
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Q3 23/24

Feb 9, 2024

Operator

Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Dr. Praveer Sinha, MD and CEO of Tata Power. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Thanks, Alvin. Good evening to everyone, and thanks for joining the Q3 FY24 analyst call. I'm joined today by my colleagues, Sanjeev Churiwala, CFO, Mr. J.V. Patil, financial controller, Mr. Kasturi, and Rajesh Lachhani from the Investor Relations, and other team members from the finance team. We have already shared the details with you, but just for the benefit of everyone, there are a couple of issues I thought I'd bring to everyone's notice. One is that the power demand in the country has grown at a very fast pace. We have seen a nearly 10% demand surge in the last quarter, and during the last nine months also, the growth has been nearly 9%-10%.

This higher demand is expected to continue in future quarters and future years also, considering that there has been a huge surge in demand in all sectors, whether it is the commercial, industrial, or the domestic residential sector, as also in villages where we see that the consumption has increased tremendously because of the governance of RDSS. What we are expecting is that with the increased demand in power, Tata Power will continue to provide a supply of power from all its existing assets. Coming to this quarter, this is the 17th successive quarter in which we have shown the back-to-back growth, thereby demonstrating that solid business fundamentals are there of the company. This is especially heartening because the majority of the profits have come from the core businesses, unlike previous years when we used to get large quantum of profit from our non-core business, especially the core business.

This quarter, we have a CAT of INR 1,076 crore, which is nearly 2% higher than the last quarter. Similarly, our EBITDA has increased by 15% to INR 3,250 crore. On a nine-month basis, our EBITDA has jumped by nearly 34% to reach an all-time high of INR 9,342 crore. Similarly, our adjusted PAT before exceptional items has gone up by 4% for the nine months to INR 3,000 crore. This is on back of robust performance by all our core businesses, including generation, transmission, distribution, renewables, as also some of the newest HVAC that we have gone into in EV charging as also in the rooftop solar. While we make huge progress in our various businesses, our commitment to net zero continues to be there, and we will become net zero by 2025, which as a utility, we were the first one in the country to announce.

During this quarter, our renewable business commissioned 72 MW of renewable capacity and 343 MW of capacity in our utility-scale projects in the last nine months, and with our green portfolio and clean portfolio becoming nearly 5,600 MW. This, of course, includes our hydro, thereby accounting for nearly 39% of our capacity being in the clean generation area. We have a number of projects during this quarter, namely the 1,316 MW of RTC projects. And this is the first RTC project that we have from SECI, which is a combination of solar, wind, and battery storage. And with this, our project pipeline has become 4,752 MW. Over and above our existing 4,200 MW, we'll have nearly 9,000 MW of renewable projects which we would be setting up.

With all this, we do expect that in the next quarter, we should be in a position to cross 10,000 MW of renewable projects and move to nearly more than 50% of our capacity coming from renewable sources. Our solar EPC business has, again, reported a very good performance during this quarter, both in terms of revenue and EBITDA, as also our utility-scale business, where nearly orders of 612 MW worth INR 2,849 crore has been received in this quarter. Rooftop business continues to see excellent traction with nearly 146 MW installed and nearly 87 MW of orders running Q3. During the last nine months, we have installed 350 MW of rooftop solar. Why I'm emphasizing this is considering that the Government of India has recently announced that 1 crore houses will be provided with the rooftop solution.

Once the details are out and we know exactly what sort of capacity is being in reserve, we expect a capacity addition of nearly 30-40 gigawatts of rooftop opportunity in the next 2-3 years. That's where I think Tata Power will play a very, very important role going forward. In all our renewable businesses, we have seen huge amounts of growth, and we do expect that this trend will continue in the future quarters also. In our manufacturing plant, out of the 4.3 gigawatt of solar cell and solar modules, the 3 gigawatt of solar modules have been commissioned, and the manufacturing has started at our plant. The fourth gigawatt of module manufacturing will start in the next 2-3 weeks.

Similarly, on our 4.3 GW cell line, the first cell is expected to be out in the month of April, and the plant should stabilize to the full capacity by June, July. We do expect that going forward, there would be a large number of projects, including the rooftop solar project of the government, the 1 crore that has been announced, which will use local-made solar modules. And thereby, we will have great opportunity going forward to meet the production that comes from this plant. During this quarter, we have energized 412 public EV chargers. And with this, our total number of EV chargers which are operating installed is much higher. It's operating at 5,300. And this is also on back of nearly 73,000 home chargers and 690 bus chargers which are operating.

We have recently tied up with Indian Oil Corporation to use their outlets to put nearly 500 fast and ultra-fast EV chargers at different locations. Our T&D business has been doing consistently very good. In the last quarter, we won two bids worth INR 2,300 crore. This is the 344 circuit kilometer Bikaner-Neemrana transmission line and the 80 circuit kilometer Jalpura-Khurja line with a total investment of nearly INR 2,300 crore. All these projects will get completed in the next 24 months. Our Odisha discoms continue to perform very well. It has been a very challenging experience, but the teams over there have ensured that better quality service and reliability is provided to the customers. That has been demonstrated by not only good service to the consumer but also in terms of financial performance, thereby in Q3, the PAT has gone up by nearly 75% to INR 63 crore.

On a 9-month basis, it has become INR 217 crore. We have also installed nearly 360,000 smart meters in Odisha and replaced nearly 2,700,000 meters in Odisha out of the 9,500,000 consumers over there. This has helped us to improve our billing efficiency and collection efficiency. The results will start being seen in the subsequent quarters. Our balance sheet remains very steady in spite of increasing capital. We have spent nearly INR 3,600 crore in the last quarter. In spite of all this, our net debt has increased only by INR 2,000 crore, and it's at a very healthy level of INR 38,600 crore. Our leverage ratios are very healthy. Our net debt to underlying EBITDA is 2.86. In the previous quarter, it was 2.7. Our net debt to equity has been virtually at one level.

We do expect that our increase in CAPEX in future quarters will also help us to generate better EBITDA and profitability for the company. During the quarter, the company also received $50 million out of the pending receivables of $125 million from the investment done in Zambia. We expect that the balance will also be collected in the next 12-14 months as per the agreement agreed with the discount in Zambia. Acknowledging all these efforts, CRISIL has upgraded Tata Power's credit rating from AA stable to AA positive. India Ratings have upgraded from AA stable to AA+ stable, which I think is too much improvement in the last 1 year.

As Tata Power continues to move forward with better performance and consistent performance, we do expect that our new investments, which is in our renewable business, transmission, and distribution, as also the pumped hydro project, which will start in the later part of this year, will start showing much better, consistent, and stable performance for the company in the future years. I thank you all for all your support. This is especially required considering that Tata Power crossed the market cap of INR 100,000 crore a few days back and continues to improve its performance going forward. I believe that all our existing operations will continue to do well in the future, and we look forward for your continued support. I will now ask Darwin to open the floor for question and answer.

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session.

Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use hands-free while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Good evening, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. My first question is, over the past one year, Tata Power has commissioned about 353 MW of RE capacity. What is the expected phase-out of commissioning of close to 4.75 GW renewable project pipeline here on? How much is expected in FY25? FY26 is expected to be.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. Thanks, Sumit. This is Sanjeev Churiwala, CFO here. As you rightly said, when we look at our likely net commissioning, it's 353. Normally, we do a big commissioning towards year-end. So the last quarter is supposed to be a big quarter for us where we would expect another 250-300 MW of commissioning happening. But looking at our current bid, which is in the pipeline, while we are still working on our overall strategy, but looking at our net commissioning in 2025, we could commission anything between 1.5-2 GW. We'll be closer to 2 GW. And in the subsequent years from the existing pipeline, another 2 GW+ will get commissioned. As you would have seen, the number as of now is smaller.

That's because it was a strategy we've seen that we took many months back given the very high solar cell and module prices to defer some of the projects so that the solar cell and module prices could bounce back to normalcy. Luckily, that strategy has worked. As you are aware, the prices of solar cells and modules have come down. To that extent, we are back in profits in many of these projects that we are executing now.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Sure. So related question now with the cell and module prices having collapsed, and you are at the brink of commissioning your expanded cell and module capacity. So would it make sense to use this output for utility-scale projects in India at present without implementation of ALMM? And what are the margins that you could expect to make on the manufacturing side in FY25 as you ramp up your manufacturing capacity?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

As you are aware, the ELMM will kick in from 1st April. Many of the projects where they were given the concessions in 31st March, if they have not got completed, they will have to only procure Indian-made modules. That's where our benefit is there, though the international prices have crashed. I do expect that with this condition and also the new opportunity of 1 crore houses, which will have only domestic-made modules, we'll have a great opportunity. In fact, there is now huge demand that we are seeing from various CPSUs and various other procurers who want to set up projects in the next financial year that they would like to tie up on a long-term basis from us. We don't expect that we will have any challenge in supplying modules from our factory.

Our margins, to that extent, will be quite protected.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Okay. So would it be reasonable to expect margins closer to 15% in manufacturing of cell plus module, or is it early to talk about that?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Well, I would always expect more than that.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Okay. Finally, a question on the line that we see on your cluster summary, cluster-wide summary. Has there been significant improvement in Tata Projects in Q3 on a year-over-year basis or even quarter-over-quarter, which is driving some improvement in this quarter?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Yeah. The Tata Projects have made profits in the last quarter. And this is the second quarter in which they have made profits. So last two quarters, they have made profits. And Tata Projects will surprise me going forward because all the projects where they had to make provisions for the under-recovery or losses have been completed. And year after, it is only such a question that will happen in Tata Projects.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Sure. Has there been a significant increase in profit from Tata Projects in this quarter? If you could give us the absolute numbers, maybe, Sanjeev.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. Thanks. No, I think the way to look at it, significant reduction in the losses. So if I look at the nine-month operations, what I had as a losses last year versus the profit I have, the difference is almost close to INR 220 crore. I think to that extent, Tata Projects have come a long way. The last two quarters, we are starting to see the profits coming in. And with the kind of current working that is happening there, I think it's on a transformational path.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Excellent. Thank you. Thank you so much. And wish Tata Power all the best. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Puneet Gulati from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Yeah. Thank you so much. That's in good numbers. My question is with respect to the future commissioning for Tata Power renewables. Since ELMM will come in place, what kind of module price do you expect post 31st March, 2024? I'm sure you would have tied up for those already, which you can give some color on the module prices there.

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

I can't do prediction of module prices, what will happen. But I can only tell you that there will be huge demand for domestic-made modules after the ELMM kicks in from 1st April. So I think the commissioning of the plant has happened at the right time. And we will have a huge upside because of the market demand that will take place.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Mr. Sinha, Tata Power renewables perspective, the consumer of these modules where you intend to commission 1.5-2 GW, has something being tied up for FY25?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yes. So Puneet, the other bit to look at is in our renewable business, when we look at our large-scale utility business, we already have 4.8 GW of project under pipeline. And this pipeline consists of all the various bids that we have gone. So when we look at the solar cell and module prices considered in the bid versus our cost, it will definitely have margins over there. So we're not immediately concerned as to how the market will behave. For the past couple of things, we have to be kind of taken into consideration. A, the BCD of the solar cells and the modules will continue. To that extent, the price parity will continue to happen in spite of the Chinese solar cells and module prices dropping in, number one.

Number two, as you are aware, most of the sales and manufacturing facilities have been put on the backing of the PLI and state incentives, right? So that will also count when we're looking at our returns. So I think we're in a very good position that we have commissioned a part of our modules. We already have a healthy pipeline of projects coming in. We have the productions of the BCDs there as well as the incentive put together. So I think at least we don't see a concern going forward. But you never know what happens after one year, two years. But definitely, our pipeline is quite healthy as of now.

Understood. That's helpful. If you can comment on what is the progress in pumped storage? Have you placed orders for equipment, etc.?

The pumped storage, as we had announced in the 28th November, we are completing the feasibility and getting into the progress. Any pumped storage could take easily four to five years to get commissioned. Hence, at the moment, we're trying to tie up the various things. At the right time, when we have the proper approvals from the board, we'll be coming back to you with more details.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Understood. Lastly, transmission projects also, you've once again started an initiative towards bidding for that. How is the competitive intensity there, if you can give some color? And what kind of IRRs are you aiming for there?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

I think the way we look at the transmission business, 50% of the bids on the market presently is still with PGCIL. And then the overall private sector market share is close to about 10%. We have recently won 2 bids, and I think we continue to work on further bids coming in because as and when you develop a portfolio of bids, you are in a position to kind of dictate better pricing in the marketplace from your vendors and suppliers. And of course, we want to ensure that we are getting a good competitive returns on these bids. And without that, they're not bidding.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. I'll come back in the field. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Subhadip Mitra from Nuvama. Please go ahead.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Good evening, and thank you for the opportunity. My first question is with regard to the captive solar module manufacturing. Given that you're looking at setting up, let's say, roughly about 2 GW of capacity every year, is it right to assume that you would be looking at roughly 50% of module sales for your captive usage and the balance 50 would go to the external market, be it rooftops or otherwise?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

So when we are talking about 2 GW of our own utility scale, we also would be doing third-party EPCs. And there would be some quantity that would go. Similarly, we are already doing something like 300+ MW of rooftop, which we expect to increase to 500. I also mentioned to you that now that the big opportunity has come up for 10 million houses to be provided with rooftop solar. So I think we have huge opportunity both to supply within the country and also maybe supply some quantity outside the country. So we will have to see what sort of market opportunities are there and what sort of prices and returns we are seeing. And we will take it on based on the market result.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Understood. Secondly, on the transmission side, given that there is such a large opening opportunity opening up over there, is there any target you have in mind as to an X percentage market share or X quantum of projects that you would like to keep on winning every year in transmission?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

We don't look at investments on those principles of market share. What we are more interested in, what sort of returns we can get from these projects. So we don't want to just, for the sake of market share or just for winning projects, take any project at any margin. So for us, if it is not meeting the threshold of returns, we would not take such products. So opportunities are phenomenal, whether it is in transmission or renewable or it is in any of the other areas that we are seeing. But for us, the guiding principle will be what sort of return is there and what sort of risk and reward are there.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Understood. And what is the ideal threshold for returns that you typically look at?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Very difficult to say. But you have seen how we have been in a regulated business. Anything above that is the minimum that we would expect.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Understood. So lastly, I will refer to slide number 41 of your presentation where you've given the nine-month breakup of the income, EBITDA, and PAT and cluster-wise. So firstly, thank you very much. This is very helpful for us to understand it in detail. Secondly, just wanted to understand the last line over there, which is the other segment that includes Tata Projects, Nelco, and other eliminations. At least we are able to decipher is that out of the overall hit that has come from the coal front, maybe there's an INR 1,000-INR 1,200 crore kind of a hit that's coming over there.

So while the renewables and the transmission pieces have all contributed maybe INR 300 crore and offset that hit, there is a large benefit that is coming from that other piece, almost about INR 1,000-odd crore. And maybe INR 225 crore of that is Tata Projects, as you mentioned. If you can throw some more light on this because that's a very large piece of business.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

We are in slide 41. Are you referring to the line which is others, including TPADL, GPCL, and elimination?

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Yeah. I'm referring to the fourth line from the bottom, others including Tata Projects, Nelco, and intercluster eliminations. So the YTD FY 2024 number is -INR 413, and the YTD FY 2023 number is -INR 1,426. That's INR 1,000 crore gap over there.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. Yeah. So let me explain to you. This is basically the dividends that we receive from various associates and joint venture companies. But yes, to that extent, this will also include the dividend from our coal mines, which we are not spelling out specifically out here. But what you can see is on a YTD basis, to that extent, it is lower by INR 1,000 crore. And that has been fully mitigated from income from the coal businesses, which is coming from our renewable, CND, transmission, and our distribution businesses.

Subhadip Mitra
Excecutive Director, Nuvama

Okay. Probably, I'll take this offline with Rajesh. That is on my side. Thank you so much.

Operator

Sure. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sudhanshu Bansal from JM Financial. Please go ahead.

Sudhanshu Bansal
Director, Institutional Equities & Lead Analyst, Power & Utilities, JM Financial

Yes. Thank you, sir, for the good set of numbers. How do you see the trajectory of coal prices and power demand for next 2-3 years? Secondly, any color on the Mundra PPA will be very helpful, sir.

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

So when we look on the power demand, I think you have seen last two years, the PADR has been 10%. And I do expect that this sort of demand will continue in the subsequent years also. As far as the Mundra is concerned, the plant is operating under Section 11. And this is applicable up to 30th of June. We are in active discussion. But since Section 11 is already enforced, there has been a little bit of delay in finalizing because this will eventually be applicable post the Section 11 period gets over. So we do expect that something on similar lines will get finalized much before the Section 11 period gets over.

Sudhanshu Bansal
Director, Institutional Equities & Lead Analyst, Power & Utilities, JM Financial

Sir, about the coal prices?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Well, the coal prices is very difficult. I don't think there is anyone who can predict what the coal prices will be there. What we have seen in the last six months is that the coal prices have stabilized. This is expected to be in the same range provided there are no other geopolitical changes that take place.

Sudhanshu Bansal
Director, Institutional Equities & Lead Analyst, Power & Utilities, JM Financial

Thank you, sir. Best wishes for the continued good performance.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Apoorva Bahadur from the Goldman Sachs . Please go ahead.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Hi, sir. This is Apoorva. Sir, wanted to understand this dividend from ITPC, I think INR 416 crore we have recognized. Is it one-time and what sort of cost is payment?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Sure. I'll take this question. Just wanted to understand, you're from which company? Our system is not showing well.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

We're from Goldman Sachs.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

You're from Goldman Sachs. Okay. Luckily, it was showing that we are employing the system. Yeah. No. So basically, if you see, this is a turnaround story of one of our associate company joint venture in Zambia where we have a hydroplant, which has been underperforming for many, many years. And there were tariff disputes, which have now been settled. And because the tariff dispute has been settled, the company is now making profits and have decided to declare dividend of $100 million. And we have received a $50 million in this particular quarter. But that profit, which is reflected on the PAT as INR 311 crore, is less than offset by the one-time gain also that we had because of Section 11 in the same quarter last year. So net-net, it's about 30-odd crore. So it is not really impacting to the extent the bottom line.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Right. No, no. I wanted to understand that when this is a recurring feature, is INR 416 crore benefit? Or what's the annual PAT of EPADL, particularly now that the tariff dispute has happened?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

So let's put it that way, that given that this is an accumulation of the profit which they are now distributing, of course, they receive a bigger number. But this company is capable of declaring a yearly dividend of maybe $25 million-$30 million going forward. So yeah, we would think that there would be some recurring income coming through every year. But this company has just survived, right? So we are kind of, at the moment, watching the situation and see how the performance shapes up to be able to give you a very confident answer. Maybe four quarters down the line, we'll have better comfort. But the good part is this company where we were not kind of looking at any cash flow coming through has been revived. And at least we are receiving a $50 million. To that extent, of course, the company's return profile improves.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Right. Sir, second question is on the pumped hydro projects. Wanted to check, at what stage are we in terms of PE approvals? Has the DPR been concurred and all the approvals in place?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

So all the documents have been submitted, whether it is for DPR or for environmental clearance and all. And these are going through various motions of approvals in various departments. So we do expect that by first quarter of next financial year, we'll have major approvals. And hopefully, in the later part of this year, maybe by third quarter of the next financial year, we will be in a position to start work.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Sir, by FY25, around mid of FY25, we expect to start work. And then it will take another 4-5 years. So I believe I saw in the PPT sometime 2027, 2028 is what we are guiding for the commission.

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

We are trying to stick to some sort of similar timeline.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Are we beginning work before we are getting all the approvals? Has the civil work at all?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

No, no. We'll start work only after we get all the approvals. That's why I'm saying that maybe in the last quarter, in the third quarter of FY25, we will possibly start work.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Okay. Okay. Sir, and for these pumped storage projects, how much of capacity is tied up for group captives with the Tata Group? Any color on that?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Those are still being discussed. And we'll figure it out.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Sure. Sir, last question on this module, manufacturing. If you could share the cost structure, what are final costs of production for these modules? Or how much closer are we to the Chinese prices without the duties and with the duties as well?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

I mentioned to you that these modules are on a different footing altogether compared to what prices you see in other countries because this is the DCR. Any module that comes from outside, there is a customs duty. Also, they are not approved in the list of module manufacturers. So this has to basically cater to the local requirement within the country. We need to do the pricing based on that.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Sir, what would be our cost?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Those details are being worked out. Once we are ready with that, possibly next quarter, we'll be able to give you some idea.

Apoorva Bahadur
Executive Director, Goldman Sachs

Sure, sir. Thank you so much. All the very best.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.

Satyadeep Jain
Lead Analyst, Cement, Metals, Mining & Utilities, Ambit Capital

Hi. Thank you. Just one question on the pumped storage. If you are close to starting construction in the next few quarters, and let's say if you don't sign up the capacity before you start construction, as you look at financing, I understood previously banks were somewhat unwilling to lend to untied RE capacity. Is that for pumped storage, if you do start construction before tying up, raising finance, is there any challenge on that front? Just wanted to understand. How do banks lend on these projects?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

What we are seeing is that there is a huge amount of bids which are coming up. In fact, in the next few weeks and months, we are expecting nearly 6-7 GW of bids which are coming, which are the FDRE bids. We are seeing huge demand. There's also huge demand from industrial and commercial users where they are looking at 24/7 power. This will be a packaged power of solar, wind, and pumped storage so as to give 24/7 availability of wind power. We do not expect that we will have any challenge in tying up this quantity of power.

Satyadeep Jain
Lead Analyst, Cement, Metals, Mining & Utilities, Ambit Capital

Just wanted to understand, you'll basically tie up this entire 2.8 gigawatt before you start construction, right? That's what you're saying?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Not necessary. We'll take a call on that. So let's see how the market evolves. But yes, some quantity will definitely get tied up, but maybe not 100%.

Satyadeep Jain
Lead Analyst, Cement, Metals, Mining & Utilities, Ambit Capital

Okay. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aniket Mittal from SBI Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Yes, sir. Firstly, on the PPR yield side, when I look at the nine-month numbers, excluding other income, the EBITDA margin is at about 77%. So clearly, there has been no downward trajectory despite capacity additions that we've been doing. So I just wanted to understand over the years, what's the reason for the decline in EBITDA margins over here? And over the next three years, as we commission capacities, how should we look at the EBITDA margin for TPREL yield?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Well, the EBITDA margin is dependent on the project cost. As you have seen, now that the module prices have come down and large-scale projects will come in the last quarter as well as in the subsequent two quarters, you will see a huge improvement in EBITDA.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

So for the coming, let's say, 2 years, if we commission the remaining capacity, what sort of EBITDA margin should we look at for TPREL?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

I won't be able to give you a guidance at this stage. Definitely, it will be much better than what we were doing one year back.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

I think if we look at this business and also generally as an industry, the EBITDA margin would be in the range of 75%-80% given that it has a mix of both solar and wind. This particular quarter, normally third quarter, the wind is always low in terms of the generation. But yeah, what we feel is once we go live with our cell-type modules and with all the criteria in the pipeline, this will keep on improving in the coming quarters. Deliberately, as of Friday, as I said in the earlier discussions, that we only have commissioned 363 MW. Of course, to that extent, the fixed cost absorption did not happen that much.

But in the coming quarter, we will have further commissioning happening. And the bigger commissioning will happen in the first two quarters of the next year. So you will see sequentially the improvement coming in.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Okay. In terms of commissioning, I think you mentioned 1.5-2 gigawatts for FY25. How much would come in FY26?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Given our current bid pipeline and the COD commissioning, definitely, as of now, we will expect another 2 GW to come in. If we are able to win something more in the coming quarters, this can go up to 3 GW. Yes, definitely 2 GW is for sure that we will be commissioning in 2026 also.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Okay. On a medium to long-term basis, what's the optimal capital structure that you're looking for in terms of, let's say, the debt-to-equity or debt-to-EBITDA?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

It's a very complicated answer because, again, you have to think about the way you're looking at the consol level. Are you looking at the specific platform level? Because at a platform level, when you look at the sorry?

Speaker 12

At a consol level?

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

At a consol level?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yes. At a console level, presently, our debt-to-equity is about 1 time, right? And with all our planning, we don't think that will go anything beyond 1.5-2 times in the near future, right? But at the entity levels where we plan the bids, the ratio will be different. But finally, what we do intend to ensure that with all our non-core that we keep on selling from time to time, equity raises at all that has to happen, we keep our debt-to-equity definitely below 2.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Okay. Fair. Lastly, in the 4.8 GW of under-construction projects, how much of it is wind?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Will you be able to call that out? If you know that. That number is there. I've got some slides. Slide number? Slide number 9. Yeah. If you could go to slide number 9, you'll have the breakup of that.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Slide number 9?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. I'll look at it.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Okay. Okay. Fair. Fair.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Okay.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Sorry. Sorry. This slide actually includes hybrid as well, right, which will also have a wind component in it?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Oh, yeah.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Yeah, yeah. So if I were to take the wind component and the hybrid as well, I just want to understand how many capacity of wind that you have under construction right now, including the component in hybrid?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

So we'll be able to share that with you. We'll give you that. Sorry.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

But I think it's better to look at it when we are bidding for solar separately and for wind separately. But when we bid for the hybrid and also for the RTCs, it's a very combination that we need to do for solar, wind, and battery, right? So unless we have to look at it in that sense and as a combined sense because the installed capacity and the PPA capacity will also differ. So my urge to all of you would be not to break up that. Otherwise, it'll become more and more complicated.

Aniket Mittal
Equity Analyst, SBI Mutual Fund

Okay. I'll probably look together offline. Yeah. Thank you. Those are my questions. Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anuj Upadhyay from Investech. Please go ahead.

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, first question relates to your standalone business. So the decline in profitability, is it purely because of lower dividend income? Or there's some other factor as well? Because our sense was the Mundra under-recovery would have gone significantly due to Section 11. But in spite of that, the profit is down to nearly one-third.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. So basically, the profit that we get from our coal mines has significantly come down. And that is what is contributing to a lower standalone. But for us, it's always looking at the consolidated picture.

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

Okay. And yeah, margins across the EPC continue to remain quite volatile. This quarter we are back to close to 5% kind of a margin. Last quarter probably yields been a guidance that a low margin order book is more or less been the execution has been complete. So now we would be executing projects where margins are relatively closer to a double digit or somewhere in the range of 7%-9%. So any comment on that, sir?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

You're talking about the EPC margin?

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

Yeah. EPC 1.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. So the EPC margin, our targeted margin is close to 5%. But as you write, the market has been very, very volatile, especially because of the commodity prices, effects of solar modules. It is now stabilizing. And we think with the current graded pipeline, we can still target the 5% kind of EPC margins.

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

So this applies even to our current order backlog. I mean, order book.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Over there, still we are targeting close to 5%-6% kind of an EPC margin.

You're talking about pack margin of 5% on the EPC business. That's correct. But of course, that is what we're targeting is. It could be a little higher or lower depending upon how things move. But when we do a particular bidding, we kind of target an EPC margin of 5%.

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

Okay. Any possibilities, sir, where Mundra can participate in the open market? Currently, whatever selling has been happening, I believe, is under the Section 11. But any possibility where we can participate in the merchant market provided we are venturing into Sinha, where the countries which we are participating at?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

I think Mundra today is operating at full capacity. All the purchasers are taking because it's a very efficient plant. If they don't buy from Mundra, then they will have to buy from the market at a much higher price. None of the purchasers are ready to leave the opportunity to take power from this plant. I don't think we have an opportunity to sell outside the purchasers. In case they don't take the power, then of course, we have the freedom to sell in the open market.

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

Okay. Lastly, can you just mention the uptake price for Mundra? What is the generation cost and what price they're selling to the consumers?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

It's there in the schedule. Gujarat SLDC releases on a daily basis the merit order. I can check in your channel.

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

Yeah. And also, I think it's basically a cost-plus markup for us, right, to the extent what matters to us is the pecking order so that all the procurers can take our power. Beyond that, I think the cost doesn't matter because it's still under Section 11 for us. No, fine. Just wanted to get a sense. If at all we get an opportunity in the open market, then what would be our cost and the spread on the merchant trade?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

It's available. We can provide you separately. But it will not actually serve a purpose because it's all cost-plus markup. So depending upon the coal prices and everything, it will just move up and down. So it's kind of an arithmetical formula.

Anuj Upadhyay
Research Analyst, Investec

Sure. Sure. Thanks, sir. Thanks for it.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Puneep Gulati from HSBC. Please go ahead.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Yeah. Hello. Yeah. My question is on your EV charging business. There was a, are you aware whether Tata Motors is also engaging into the EV charging business? And how does that fit into the collaboration with Tata Motors?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

I've not heard about that, that we cater to full Tata Motors requirement, whether it is for the four-wheelers or it is for buses or so. I don't know of any other opportunity that Tata Motors is working on EV charging. All their present requirement, whether it is for home charging, public charging, bus charging, fleet charging, is being done there.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Okay. That's very interesting. And secondly, if you can comment a bit on the profitability, even on a YoY basis, year-over-year for the renewables business despite adding significant capacity, how should we think of it? Is it a function of plant utilization, higher depreciation? How should we think of that?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

So what happens, as Sanjeev mentioned, that it's very difficult to do on a quarter-to-quarter basis because there are certain periods in the year, in certain quarters, when you have better radiation and you have better solar generation. Similarly, there are certain periods during which you have better wind speeds and better wind generation. So I think you need to do it on a 12-month basis rather than just trying to do on a quarter-to-quarter.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Okay. So what was weaker this time, the wind part?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Wind part? Sorry.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

So if you can comment on what was weaker this time in terms of solar or wind, where was the PLF lower?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

See, what happens is, for us, what is important metrics is the availability of the plant. All the availability, whether it is solar or wind, are very, very high. It is benchmark in the country. So our availabilities of the plant, solar is virtually 100%. And wind is also in 98% plus. Secondly, we have shared what is the ELS for the solar and wind. It's in slide 49. You can see it.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Right. So there's the other income part, INR 45 crore versus INR 160 crore. I thought that was generally operational income. But what exactly is that, if you can throw some light on it?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

It will be a combination of some operating income, scrap, some interest income on investments, a combination of that. But if you really see, for the quarter, the number is quite small, INR 45 crore.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Correct. Versus 106 previous quarters.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. Yeah.

Puneet Gulati
Director, Equity Research, HSBC

Okay. Okay. Fine. Thank you so much. Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mithil Bhuva from unlistedindia.com. Please go ahead.

Mithil Bhuva
Equity Research Analyst, Choice International

Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. Coming to slide number 40, if I see Mundra coal and shipping, the profits are down from INR 924 crore to INR 89 crore. Now, just to understand, because of the lower coal prices, the profits are down, right?

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Yeah. That's correct.

Mithil Bhuva
Equity Research Analyst, Choice International

Mundra is just a cost pass-through, which means that we are not benefited by the lower coal prices.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

No. So yeah. In a way, whatever coal we are procuring, that plus cost, cost plus the markups, that is pass-through. But dropping in coal prices to that extent doesn't benefit. It's kind of more on a ruling basis. Yeah. On an annualized basis, you are right. But then what matters to us is a contribution that comes from coal mines, which is a packed contribution. That has significantly dropped. As a result, you see overall lower profits from thermal generation, coal, and hydro.

Mithil Bhuva
Equity Research Analyst, Choice International

Okay. I was asking just because we have invested more than INR 25,000 crore in the Mundra and coal business. And if the profits are to remain at this level, then we won't generate sufficient cash profits to repay our debt, right? That's the concern, actually.

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

See, you need to look at it from a loss-making today. You're not. So to that extent, I think we need to look at it in totality rather than just looking at it in terms of what sort of return.

Mithil Bhuva
Equity Research Analyst, Choice International

Okay. But in the future, can we expect good profits from standalone Mundra also? Or the cost pass-through will be very minimal only?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

In today's scenario, when we have Section 11, it's cost-neutral. So whatever is the actual cost of generation is getting paid to you. In future, based on what sort of PPA we enter with them, we will have to see what sort of returns we're able to get. And to your question, if I add, there are two approaches. A, when you look at the packed contribution coming from the coal mines, that is perfect. But on top of that, you also get the dividends, right, which on a console basis get knocked off. But when I look at the cash flow, a significant cash flow comes from the dividend perspective.

Mithil Bhuva
Equity Research Analyst, Choice International

Okay. Okay. So my second question is that the management has guided that the revenue will double in the next three years to around INR 100,000 crore. Can you just give a brief on where the revenue is going to rise, actually? Because in the last three years, the revenue has risen only in the Odisha discoms, mainly. So can you just give a brief of where the revenue is going to rise in the next three years?

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

I think the presentation that we had made in the analysts' meet, if you see that, it will give you a very good idea that where we are putting the CAPEX and where the growth will come. So I think it is a direct correlation to that.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

I think part of the question we tried to answer in our renewable pipeline itself, we're talking about 2 GW of commissioning happening next year and more than 2 GW happening in 2046. So currently, we are at 4. And then that 4 itself, we are talking about 9 in the next three years' time, right? So I think to that extent, that will contribute a big profit. Plus, I think the new manufacturing also we spoke about, the commissioning of the cells and modules, that will also start contributing towards profit. The opportunity in rooftop solar is big for us. We'll also look at that. So I think it is a well thought-through strategy in terms of looking at where we want to reach in our aspiration three years down the line. And we're tackling on that.

Mithil Bhuva
Equity Research Analyst, Choice International

Okay. Thank you. Wish you all the best.

Sanjeev Churiwala
CFO, Tata Power

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to Dr. Praveer Sinha for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Dr. Praveer Sinha
CEO & MD, Tata Power

Thank you. Thank you to everyone for joining in the call. In case you have any further queries, you can connect with our investor relations team. We'll be more than happy to share with you. The presentations have been made quite detailed. But if there is any further improvement that you would like in this presentation or any more details, please connect with us. I'm sure with your support, we have been able to get a market cap of more than INR 100,000 crore. We are now looking for next milestones. I'm sure you will support us in that extent. Thank you, everyone. Take care. Goodbye.

Operator

Thank you. On behalf of the Tata Power Company Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.

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