Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Tata Power Q3 FY 2026 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Dr. Praveer Sinha, CEO and Managing Director of Tata Power, for his opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Thank you very much. Good evening to everyone, and thanks for joining in the call. I have my colleague, Sanjeev Churiwala, CFO; J.V. Patil, Group Financial Controller; Kasturi, Chief Treasurer; and from investor relations, we have Anshul and some of my other colleagues from the Finance Department. Before I share with you some of the salient features of the quarter performance, just to give you a little background, the power demand during the quarter three and nine months for the last financial year has been, I would say, not very high, but has been nearly 7%, which is less than what it was the previous year. I think when we look at both the demand increase in December and January, it looks like we will have a rebound in this year, especially with summer expected to be a little more warmer than last year.
We do expect that peak demand will be in the 270 GW -280 GW range, and we can expect a very large increase in the demand of power in the coming months. In the last nine months, we have seen huge capacity add, especially in the renewable space. And while our overall capacity has reached 514 GW of installed capacity, nearly 45 GW was added in this fiscal, out of which 38 GW is renewable capacity. So huge capacity additions have happened, and we do expect that going forward, this momentum will be continued. Looking at the financial performance of the company for the quarter, we have given a very strong operational and financial performance with the EBITDA increase of nearly 12% year-on-year at INR 3,913 crore compared to the previous year.
Similarly, the PAT has increased marginally to INR 1,195 crores, despite Mundra being non-operational for the quarter and having a substantial hit because of that. For the nine months, the EBITDA has jumped 12% year-on-year to INR 11,874 crores as compared to INR 10,639 crores. Similarly, the PAT is up by 7% for the nine-month period to INR 3,702 crores. This quarter, what we have seen is many of our new businesses have come to age, whether we look at our solar cell and module manufacturing, where there has been a huge increase in our profit after tax, which has gone up to nearly INR 251 crores in the quarter compared to INR 112 crores last year. For the nine-month period, the plant has delivered a PAT of INR 592 crores, which is an increase of 154% compared to INR 233 crores in the last year and nine months. Similarly, our rooftop has done exceedingly well.
We crossed 1 GW in the nine-month period. In Q3, we executed in the previous year in this quarter, we executed 372 MW compared to 173 MW in the previous year. The rooftop PAT has increased in the quarter to INR 111 crores compared to INR 60 crores last year. In the nine-month period, it has gone to INR 324 crores compared to INR 110 crores in the previous year and nine months. Similarly, Odisha Discoms have done very well. The profit of Odisha Discoms has gone up to INR 226 crores in the quarter compared to INR 86 crores last year. In the nine-month period, it has gone to INR 505 crores compared to INR 164 crores in the previous year and nine months. I think what is important is that many of our new businesses have now started showing results.
In the future quarters, they will further stabilize and produce much better results than what we have seen in the previous quarter. We also have seen that many of our other businesses, including the transmission businesses, have started showing results. We were able to commission some of our TBCB projects, such as the 400 kV Koteshwar–Rishikesh transmission line. Similarly, we were able to complete some of the other projects, which were under implementation. Some of the projects will get completed in this quarter also. We also got a letter of intent in the last quarter for the Vijayawada line, and we are expecting some more projects in this quarter also. Last quarter, we had a huge challenge because Mundra was not operating. We have been able to now conclude the arrangement with Gujarat on all the issues of the HPC, excepting one point.
We hope that in the next two-three weeks, we will be able to close that. On a similar basis, we will parallelly start discussing with the other states so that we are in the position to start operation of the plant maybe by the end of this month, as there is now a huge demand of power that is coming up, and we should be ready for the summer months' requirements of these states. Work on all our other businesses, especially our PSP project in Bhivpuri and our hydro plant in Bhutan, are going at full swing. They will meet the timelines that have been set by us for both these projects. These are very ambitious timelines that we have set for PSP and the Bhutan project.
We are very confident with the pace of work that is going on that we will be able to complete. On our distribution business, we expect that some changes will happen by way of the Electricity Act amendment. We are expecting that once the Electricity Act amendment is put in the Parliament for approval in this budget session, we will get many more opportunities on parallel licensing in the country. Similarly, we are expecting some more announcements on the distribution sector in the next six to nine months, whereby certain more states will come up for public-private partnership based on some of the other incentives and concessions to be provided to them, especially to states which have huge financial losses in their distribution business.
We also expect that many of the new initiatives of the government, including nuclear power and all that, will bring more clarity in terms of the technology transfer, in terms of sourcing of fuel, and in terms of the opportunity that will come up to set up these nuclear plants, especially the small modular nuclear plants in various parts of the country, for which we are in continuous discussion with the Government Department of Atomic Energy and NPCIL, as also with NITI, so that these are put in practice quickly and some of the projects can start work in the next 24 months. We are always working towards improving our performance. To that extent, you would see that our financial metrics are very, very conservative.
We continue, in spite of the type of CapEx that we are incurring, to have a net debt to underlying EBITDA of 3.4 and a net debt- to- equity of 1.2. We expect that the type of calibrated growth we have will continue in future quarters also. With this, I will hand over back to you for your questions. Me and my colleagues are here to respond to you. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touch-tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We'll take a first question from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, sir. And congratulations on a strong number since solar manufacturing and solar rooftop, especially. My first question is on Mundra. Sir, of course, you are trying to resolve with Gujarat, and you will subsequently go to the other procurers. My question is, till the time we get the final resolution from the other procurers, is it fair to assume that you'll be able to run the capacity, which you only link to Gujarat, in the interim?
This is all under discussion. We had, a few months back, a joint meeting of all the procurers, during which it was agreed that Gujarat will take the lead in finalizing the SPPA terms. Now that the SPPA has agreed with Gujarat to leave one point, we will be circulating this to other states. Once we get their in-principle approval, we will try to start offsetting the plant and scheduling it to them based on their acceptance. So hopefully, in the next few weeks, we should be able to find out the comfort level of the other procurer states. Then we will start scheduling the power.
Understood. My second question is, sir, how do you think about the renewables capacity addition over the next three months? I think the target we had set for ourselves was 2.5 or 2-2.5 GW, if I remember correctly. I think we added on 600 MW, if I'm not wrong, in the last nine months. Do you think we'll still be able to meet that 2 GW target?
So our target this year was that we will set up 2.6 GW, which included third-party and ourselves. We've already done 2.3 GW, which includes third-party, and also it includes 900 MW of our own capacity add. We have another 400-500 MW of projects which we are pursuing, which we expect to complete in this quarter. And then we have projects which will come up in 2027, if I could, 2027, wherein most of the projects will be our own because all our so-called third-party projects have gone over, including the SJVN, NTPC, and NHPC. So all the new projects that will come up will be catering to our own requirements.
Understood, sir. Thank you, Mr. Churiwala. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take a next question from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. When I look at the Q3 FY 2026 EBITDA to Q3 FY 2025 of INR 432 crore, it is almost entirely explained by the bump-up that has happened in the Delhi distribution business. Although the Delhi distribution business has seen a 2% decline in power purchase and sale, power purchase and sale, there seems to be some regulatory adjustment there, which has bumped up the EBITDA. So why hasn't it been properly called out in accounts in the presentation, and what are the details there? Because it seems to be explaining the whole growth for the quarter.
What you have to do is you have to see the increase in EBITDA, considering that last year we had an EBITDA impact from Mundra, where there was a positive EBITDA of INR 300 crore. That is not there this year, and that is being compensated from our rooftop business, from our manufacturing business, and our Odisha business. There is one-off that we have got in Delhi Discom because of the regulatory order that we got for smoothing up our tariff for 2022/2023. But notwithstanding that also, there has been an increase in our existing portfolio of businesses. That has helped us for the increase in EBITDA for this quarter.
That is very clear. That is very clear. But the smooth-up amount has just become congruous in a quarter where you have had the big Mundra impact. What is the amount for the quarter?
Mundra, there are various provisions that we had to do. I think in the next quarter, when we do the complete smooth-up, we'll be able to give you the complete picture.
Okay. But what is the impact for nine months that you have smooth-up in your numbers, if not the third quarter?
I think all put together, when we look at nine months, it's closer to about INR 800-odd crore of losses that we have built.
This is losses for Mundra?
For Mundra only, yeah. Because Mundra has been shut for six months now. Of course, when the plant is shut, we don't get the capacity charges. Now, six months, the plant is still there. So to that extent, the INR 800 crore have been booked as a loss.
This is at the EBITDA level or the PAT level?
At the PAT level because for Mundra and other thermal power plants, PAT level matters the most.
Okay. Now, what I'm asking is, for Delhi distribution, for the nine-month period, what is the smooth-up benefit that you have taken in numbers?
For six months, which again, to your earlier point, we have been reporting that in the earlier quarter and this quarter, the total regulatory impact to TPDDL is about INR 344 crores for six months. We also had a similar smooth-up impact last year of INR 333 crores. That is there. Plus, in the last year corresponding same period, we had the order impact for Mundra of INR 332 crores. All of that have been appropriately reported in the accounts.
It is still not clear to me what is the benefit that you have booked in the third quarter.
You wanted YTDAT or third quarter only?
Third quarter only also. Because you're saying that the six-month number was clearly mentioned. The third quarter number is not clearly mentioned.
For the third quarter, PAT impact is about INR 344 crore on TPDDL regulatory impact.
That is flowing from revenue to profit, or is there any other benefit at the EBITDA level?
No. So this is net of taxes, of course. So the gross level is.
The gross of taxes, the EBITDA benefit is more?
Yeah. So it's INR 460 crore at the EBITDA level.
How much? INR 460 crore ?
INR 460 crores.
INR 460 crore, I heard. Okay. Okay.
In fact, if you see the notes on accounts, Sumit, there is a complete disclosure around that. You'll get the full numbers.
Okay. That is clear. The second question is, typically, you have an elimination in the renewable cluster under others, which is a negative number. This time, it is a small positive number. So typically, our understanding over the last few quarters was that because you do some internal intra-transfers sales, there is some elimination. Why is the elimination positive this time?
Yeah. So you're right. The elimination that is done, whether it's a positive number or a negative number, everything has to be eliminated. So whenever there's an intra-transfer and there's some positive number, that is eliminated to a negative elimination. And whenever there's an intra-transfer loss, that is also eliminated to a positive number. So the idea is that at the PAT level, there's no impact. And this is basically a smooth-up on a quarterly basis. So the way you have to read it is net of elimination. When you look at INR 912 crores, you can look at the slide number 52, which has been uploaded. This shows the cluster-wise performance. The breakup is there.
Yeah. I'm looking at the cluster-wise performance. So because you are doing projects which Tata Power is setting up on its own books, I am assuming that part of the modules are going from your manufacturing facility to your own projects, which is why the elimination needs to happen on consolidation because it is being consumed by your own entity. So why is the elimination a positive number?
What I'm saying, so if you look at the renewable, right, you have this Genco Solar EPC, TP Solar. So TP Solar would provide services to the Genco in terms of supply of modules. Similarly, the Solar EPC would also do the services for Genco and as well as the third party. So of course, there are many, many projects within that. However, if any project is having a negative loss because of the contractual nature of the agreement, right, that also needs to be eliminated. So one of the projects could be a negative PAT margins for most likely for the Solar EPC, which now has been eliminated for positive INR 50 crore. That's more than nothing.
Okay. So there was a loss. There was a loss which you have made in the Solar EPC business, which has been because the elimination has then become a positive thing. Okay.
As you can see, Solar EPC overall, PAT is INR 183 crore, right? It is positive. But let's say there are 100 different projects happening, which include in-house supply. So as a result, that INR 50 crore is an elimination.
This is very clear. Just one last point. There's some positive impact for FGD recovery in Q3 and nine-month for Maithon, which also seems to be bumping up the number quite dramatically on a year-on-year basis in Q3, particularly. So what is that impact? That's my last question.
Yeah. So we have commissioned the FGD for Maithon. And given that this is a regulatory asset, we are getting the regulatory returns. So the PAT impact of that is about INR 50-odd crore. And you will see that breaking happening every subsequent quarters now.
So INR 50 crore in every quarter it will come?
INR 15 crore .
INR 15.15 crore. Thank you, and wish you all the best.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Apoorva Bahadur from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, you briefly mentioned about more opportunities on the distribution from the PPP side, possibly due to some sort of a package for the Discoms. Can you give some more color on that? What sort of package are we forcing here?
There are many states who have huge financial losses. Some of those states will be given the opportunity of a long-term loan at zero rate of interest. There will be certain caveats in terms of they need to go for PPP, and only against that they will be given. Those are states which are already identified in terms of the type of financial losses they have. It is expected that once that is announced, we will have a few states who will be availing that opportunity and going for PPP.
When should we expect this? Around any timelines?
I think in the next six-nine months, this should happen.
Okay. Understood. Sir, also wanted to sort of understand our strategy on the rooftop side, commendable, I mean, the improvement that has happened and the growth and profitability. But has it reached some sort of, I mean, peak revenue or a peak profit, or do we foresee more growth here? And secondly, any plans of cross-selling more, especially on the storage side?
So this is the tip of the iceberg, I would say. And the opportunity is phenomenal. And what we are seeing is, against the Prime Minister Suryodaya's program, INR 1 crore houses were supposed to be done. We've already done only INR 25 lakhs. So there is a huge number. In this budget, another INR 50 lakhs have been added. 5 million has been added. So there is a huge opportunity with the type of financial support that is being provided. Without the financial support also, we are finding that a lot of C&I customers are also going as also customers who want larger capacities, 10 kW and above. So I think this is a business which is going to be there for a very, very long time.
We would also find that people, those who have put up smaller capacities, will augment it in the future based on their increase in energy requirement. And this business, I do feel, is something which is very futuristic and will keep on improving going forward.
Okay, sir. Sir, lastly, one theoretical question. Now that we are close to solving Mundra in terms of the supplement to TPA, if in case the government again sort of implements Section 11 because the last time it implemented, it was not just for Tata Power but for all the imported coal-based assets. And so does Section 11 supersede the supplemental TPA, or will we be kept out of the purview?
Section 11 is imposed when there is a shortage of power. Hopefully, before that happens, we should be in a position to close this arrangement because this power is required by all the procurer states. If they go for Section 11, they have to pay more. It makes more sense for them to go ahead and finalize the SPPA rather than going through Section 11.
Okay, sir. Thank you so much. All the best.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that management is able to answer queries from all participants, kindly restrict your questions to two at a time. You may join back the queue for follow-up questions. The next question is from the line of Puneet from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you so much. My first question is, you talked about one point which is missing in Mundra. Can you elaborate where is the point or difference still, which is this?
There is one point. Let's wait for that clarity to come from the government, and we will be able to close it.
Okay. Secondly, on the Delhi distribution side, there was this talk about reducing Regulatory Assets. But in this quarter, that number has gone up again. Any progress that you're seeing there, or it's a slow outcome?
So the regulatory asset, per se, has gone down. But what has happened is that there is one more order that has come. The smooth-up order has come for 2022/2023, which has given another INR 400 crore additional regulatory asset to the company. So that's why it's looking high. But in actual, during the quarter, it has come down by INR 460 crore. It has come down by INR 460 crore.
Okay. Understood. And lastly, if you can talk about which are the big renewable projects that you will commission in FY 2027?
Which are the?
Yeah. Projects which you will commission.
I think some of the Tata Steel projects, we already commissioned the 198-MW wind project. There are some more wind projects which will get commissioned in this quarter. So I think many of the wind projects will get commissioned, as also some other projects will get commissioned between this quarter and the next quarter.
Understood. And what should be the run rate for the year that we should assume for your own and separate?
Next year, we will do something like another 500 MW. But next year, the so-called 2.5, we will do 100% per asset.
Okay. From FY 2028 onwards.
Yeah.
Understood. That's very helpful. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Ketan Jain from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, sir. Congratulations on a strong performance in rooftop and module manufacturing. Just on the rooftop side, what's your outlook on the rooftop addition in India? I think year to date, we have added around 7-7.5 GW. Will this continue going forward in 2027 and 2028, at 2027 and at 2028?
I think if you look at the space of the rooftop addition in the country, as also by us, it has increased tremendously with much better supply chain, much better panel partner, much better arrangement to supply and erect and commission. I do expect that the speed will go much further. Also, the government has come up with a new scheme, which is the state Discoms have been asked to go ahead and implement it. We are doing it in Odisha, which is known as the ULA scheme, utility-led scheme, which is there. I think the capacity add that you are seeing last year, at least 50%-60% more will happen in this year. We will continue to see the increase going forward.
Understood. Understood. Thanks, sir. My next question is on the module manufacturing. I could see that we've sold around 960 MW of modules, and we've also produced 960 MW of cells. Is it right to assume that all of these cells are DCR module cells?
In the last quarter, we had some ALMM, that is, imported cells we had used because the order was for supply of imported cell with domestic modules. But I think in the next two quarters, we'll have more of our own cell and our own modules because from 1st June, only DCR cell and DCR modules are to be utilized. So you will see more or less that whatever cell that we produce is fully consumed internally. But yes, in the last quarter and also in this, there will be a.
Understood. So this 962 MW is all the external sales which we have done?
No. It's all. Lastly, in terms of exemption for rooftop and our own businesses, and a rough break-up is a small quantity of about 168 MW peak for ALMM, and DCR, we have done 795 MW peak. Total put together is about 962.
Understood. So external would be just 20%-25%?
External would be even smaller than that. Very small percentage.
Understood. So the realization is a blended realization of the DCR and a non-DCR module, both?
Yes.
What would be the current realization, sir, in the market for a DCR and a non-DCR?
Very difficult. It depends on the type of because there are 540 and 580 and all, and also which ones are monocore, which ones are offshore. Very difficult to say that.
I think it's difficult for us to give a breakup because a large quantity of that is in-house consumed in our various businesses. But if you look at the P&L, which is also uploaded, we'll have an EBITDA margin of close to 38% for the quarter. And for nine months, we're delivering close to 25% of EBITDA margin.
Correct. Correct. Okay. Sir, my last question is on the renewable execution part. You mentioned 2.5 GW next year. So 2.5 GW in FY 2027 is a target, right, sir, for our own capacity?
Our own capacity.
Yeah. And just one addition to this is, what challenges are we facing in execution of our own capacity, or is it a strategic call that we are first finishing our third-party order book and then focusing on our own capacity? Or is there any challenges you are facing in execution?
This was a timing issue only. The third-party orders, we had received much earlier. Our own capacity are orders that we got last year. Based on the timelines that have been agreed, these are getting implemented.
Understood, sir. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, would like to remind participants to ask a question. Please press star and one on your phone. The next question is from Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. Sir, Mr. Sinhha, I just wanted to ask on renewable energy execution once again. I know you're looking at 1 GW broadly commissioning this year. In the last nine months, it's been 600 MW. Again, India, 38 GW. Even if you strip out solar rooftop, that's about 30 GW, 2% market share for Tata Power. And that 1 GW that you're looking at now is, despite third-party execution, the initial expectation was 1.5-2 GW. So there seems to be a miss, and we are seeing it across the board for some of the larger players, misses in terms of execution. But the industry is still adding a lot of capacity, which means it's a very long tail in case you do meet the targets next year.
Either mathematically, if you look at the market share, the industry commissioning has to more than double, or some smaller players lose market share. Just want to understand, if you do take market share, how is that going to play out? Why should smaller players commission less or take less market share next year? In the overall, not just Tata Power, just trying to understand this entire long tail, how will that shrink?
If you look at Tata Power, this year, we've already commissioned 2.2 GW of projects. And that means that we have inherent capacity to execute such large capacity, and we will add another 500 MW in this quarter. So 2.7 GW, we will be doing in this financial year. If we look at next year, we have a capacity to execute 2.7. We may do more than 2.5 while we have taken the initial estimate of 2.5. We can go up to 3 GW of capacity add. As you are aware, we have a pipeline of nearly 5.2 GW of projects which we need to execute. So within next two years, we will execute. Also, it's not just executing the project, but also the timeline when the transmission line comes up. As you are aware, many of the transmission lines got delayed.
And we are now timing the project completion with the transmission line completion so that it should not be that these projects are left standing and unutilized when the transmission lines are not available. So I think it's a question of better planning, better phasing, and staggering it in such a way that it is able to produce as soon as they are implemented and the power can be reactivated.
Mr. Sinha, let me ask it another way. When the year started, obviously, you're looking at 1.5-2 GW if we roll back one year ago. So at that time, also, you had the third-party order book. So is it not some delay in execution, transmission, or is it purely that compared to initial expectations, you prioritized third-party book? Indeed, delay in commissioning transmission has been an industry-wide phenomenon. But despite that, we're looking at 38 GW capacity for the entire industry. But still, are you saying the delay in commissioning for capacity, delayed capacity commissioning for certain players more than it did for others? Just in the context of overall addition, trying to understand compared to the earlier targets you had.
You need to understand that many of the projects are either intra-state projects or interstate projects. The intra-state projects, the challenge of transmission lines is not so much. But in interstate transmission lines, there have been challenges. Our projects that we're doing for third-party were synchronized with the commissioning of those transmission lines. For our internal projects, again, it was synchronized. Some places, some of the lines which were supposed to come last year have got delayed, and they are expected by March this year or maybe it may go up to May, June this year, and some by December. So that's why the project completion has to be staggered in such a way that it meets the timeline for evacuation. Otherwise, there's no point in setting up the plant if the power cannot be evacuated.
Perfect. Sir, one more question on Odisha. Just we are seeing increase in income. Largely, it seems to be reduction in ECL losses. Just wanted to understand what is driving that reduction in ECL, and is it also reflected in actual increase in cash profit? Is it mainly accrual, or actually, your cash receipts have also increased significantly in Odisha? And what has led to that ECL reduction?
I think our selection efficiencies have improved. Our billing efficiency has improved. The performance of Odisha Discoms has improved tremendously. If you track it in the last three years, the performance has been improving every quarter. The coverage of billing has been better. Loss reduction has happened. Stealing of electricity, which was there, has reduced drastically. So I think overall, the performance of all the four Discoms has been very good. We need to acknowledge that the type of work that they have done to bring about a turnaround, not only financially but also operationally, is phenomenal. That is why you are seeing a much better performance in this quarter as well as in the nine months of this year.
To add to your question, Mohit, is this converted to cash? Absolutely. If you look at quarter three itself, when you look at the distribution cash flow, largely Odisha, we have earned about close to INR 800 crore of cash only for the quarter.
Okay. That's clear. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Girish Achhipalia from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Oh, yeah. Thank you, sir. Sir, my question was on your wafer and ingot plan. Where are we right now, and what is the size and any state incentives? That was the first question, sir.
This is under discussion. We are examining the technology, equipment, size, all those things. We'll take some more time to take a final decision.
Okay. And from China, we are seeing wafer and polysilicon prices increase. Currently, we have, I think, more than 5 GW under construction. So how much of an equity RR impact does this cause because you would be sourcing some of the raw materials from there, if you can quantify?
So the input material cost goes up. The output material cost also. So this is true for everyone who's manufacturing the modules in the country. So it's.
Yeah. Sir, referring to the.
Yeah. Phenomenon. We will get a higher price realization in the market.
Yeah. I mean, but your EBITDA for your utility-scale projects remains the same, but your gross block increases, right? So wanted to understand the equity RR impact. Is it like 300 basis points, 400 basis points, or is it lower?
It is not having a great impact because we also have a mix of solar and wind in most of our projects. So from whatever we know, there is not going to be any substantial impact.
Okay. If I heard you correctly, sir, for excluding third-party, next year, you are targeting 2.5 GW and FY 2028, another 2.5 GW. Is that the way it will happen in terms of your?
More than 2.5 GW. More nearer to 3 GW.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Anuj Upadhyay from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, first is on the margin front. W e are EPC in the rooftop. So during the quarter, the margin has fallen across both the segments. And probably I was of an opinion that with complete operation of your cell and module capacity, this margin volatility across the EPC should come down significantly. So could you just explain the reason for this fall in EPC margin and rooftop?
I think on the EPC side, we kind of target that margin of close to 5%-6% every quarter. But yeah, if you look at between quarter-to-quarter, depending upon the true-up, there could be challenges. But by and large, that's what we have been targeting. Because if you look at the overall solar EPC margins, it's a very, very healthy margin overall. Solar rooftop is about 14.5%. And when you look at large projection, we've got up to over 9.1%. And that margin, we're kind of delivering on a compound basis at about close to 8%.
Okay. This is what it should be on a financial basis, right, sir? Sustainable basis?
That's what we think because even quarter three, when we look at quarter three, EBITDA margin is 7.6%. Nine months is also 7.8%.
Okay. And secondly, on the debt profile, sir, I can understand on the regulatory sides where debt can go up. But say for companies like Maithon and your coal, SPV, the debt across the respective businesses has largely remained stagnant. So any timeline on when can we expect the debt reduction happening over there?
I think the debt, what we see from a consolidated basis, we have a debt-to-equity of 1.2, a debt to underlying EBITDA of 3.4. So we are on a very, very comfortable journey. Given that we will be spending close to INR 15,000 crore, INR 20,000 crore, INR 25,000 crore of CapEx every year, we will have debt in the books. But we want to ensure that we maintain our debt-to-equity and debt- to- EBITDA profile on a very, very conservative basis.
Yeah. Okay. Fine, sir. I mean, on a consol, no issue. But just on these two segments, I wanted to have your view. Whether we should expect any kind of debt reduction happening from here on, or it would largely remain at a similar level?
You're referring to which segment?
You're saying Maithon?
For Maithon and coal, SPV.
So Maithon is a regulatory asset. We're not doing any CapEx. So as for the regulatory asset, we will keep on earning cash over there, and to the extent the debt will only reduce. Yeah.
Fair point, sir. No issues.
Anuj, does that answer your question?
Yeah. I'm done with it. Thanks.
Thank you. We'll take a last question from the line of Aniket Mittal from SBI Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Yes. Actually, I had a question more at a sector level to understand. So we've obviously seen renewable awarding pretty much dry up. And there seems to be some sort of deadlock here with almost 40 GW of PP unsigned. Just to understand your thoughts, what's the pushback that Discoms are having on signing PPs? And when do you think renewable awarding in the country can sort of come back?
I think the renewable projects are getting delayed because of the connectivity issue. And in such times, new evacuation lines are set up. The pace at which the renewable projects are coming up will be a little slower. So all the existing connectivity approvals have been given, and there is no fresh approval being given. And until that happens, there is no point in tying up new renewable projects. So I think we'll have to see how quickly some of the bids come up and some of these new lines are awarded so that the project pipeline can be suitably developed.
In that context, how if we look at certain country-level, let's say, renewable additions happening, obviously, last year has been a fairly good year for India. But do you see risk to that number sort of slowing down for the next couple of years?
I think at least for the next two years, we have a lot of renewable projects as also transmission line projects which are under implementation. So to that extent, I don't think this will slow down to a very large extent. And we should see a good momentum at least the next two years.
Fair. Just one confirmation I wanted to have. So for all the renewable projects that, let's say, Tata Power builds on their books, you will be using your own manufactured cells. Is that understanding correct?
Absolutely right.
Okay. Within that, 2.5 GW of renewables expected to get commissioned next year, how much would solar be out of that?
I think it's now about 50/50.
Okay. Got that. Those are all the questions. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Nikhil Bhandari from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi. Thank you. Thank you for the opportunity. I just want to ask about the cell and the module business. The profitability currently is, of course, phenomenally pretty high. And I understand many of the other companies have not been able to ramp up their cell plants with a good yield on time. But how do you see the sustainability of these margins, let's say, beyond next six-12 months? And a connected question will be. For your rooftop solar business margins as well, how much of your rooftop solar margins are currently benefiting from this policy support of the ALMM requirement for the cells? Because you have your own cells, so probably that positions you to make a higher margin. How much of that margin strength is because of this benefit?
How do you see the durability of this advantage if the cells become more widely available in the market? Thank you.
Very short answer for your long question. This will be much, much better going forward. Once we have learned how to run the plant, it will only improve. It will not become worse.
Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from the line of Girish Achhipalia from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the follow-up. If you can just help us, currently, how's the Indonesian law situation evolving? Have they levied the export tax, and who's kind of bearing it because of the market realization? I mean, are you passing it on? Are the producers taking some impact on the margins? How is it flowing through in Q4 now?
There is no impact. At least, we have not heard or seen anything. So we are not expecting any impact.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll take that as the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Dr. Praveer Sinha for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
So thank you, everyone. During the last one hour, we heard a lot of questions on renewables but very few questions on distribution. I think we had taken all of you to Mission and shown you the type of work and the phenomenal improvement that has been there. You need to consider it because there are not many players in this country who have this sort of skill set, knowledge, and experience. Considering that a lot of distribution opportunities will come in the future, I think suitable justice should be done with distribution business in your analysis. So please consider that also. We should not just get carried away by a few areas where there are too many players, and I think margins are a challenge. With that advice, I would like to close. Thank you all. If you have any queries, please connect with Anshul and Kasturi.
Any questions you have, please ask them. We'll try to respond to you. Thank you.
Thank you, sir. On behalf of Tata Power Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.